"I will keep you in suspense" - US Elections 2016: the Final Thread

Message Bookmarked
Bookmark Removed

begin writing your parody Trump concession speeches.... now

Οὖτις, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:14 (eight years ago)

the aristocrats!

flappy bird, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:16 (eight years ago)

I'm not sure I could top the alternate Trump response in that Sopan Deb tweet.

I Can Thrill You More Than Elliott Gould Would Ever Dare Try (Old Lunch), Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:18 (eight years ago)

(For context: https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/789174109745721344 )

I Can Thrill You More Than Elliott Gould Would Ever Dare Try (Old Lunch), Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:18 (eight years ago)

Are we sure this is the final one? We've been getting like 5,000 posts a week or so and there are still 2.5 weeks left.

how's life, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:25 (eight years ago)

Since when has it been necessary in any democracy to "understand and engage" with people who lose three elections in a row? That's just illustrating what Ta-nehisi and others have already said repeatedly - that all white grievance in the US is automatically treated as valid and important. We don't need to go out there and discover what makes these people tick. They live in dying communities, they don't want to change and they are terrified of black and brown people. They don't want any help. They hate us. The end.

― El Tomboto, Thursday, October 20, 2016 3:05 PM (nineteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

noticed this in the previous thread and wanted to note otfm

i've watched a lot of cats do weird and interesting things (slothroprhymes), Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:26 (eight years ago)

is Andrew Sullivan alive? Someone check on him.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:26 (eight years ago)

ya xp was gonna say there are almost three weeks left!!! no way is this the last

marcos, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:28 (eight years ago)

we've been averaging a thread a month

Οὖτις, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:29 (eight years ago)

I wonder if there's a disarmingly cheeky response - on a par with #MuslimsReportStuff - to the strains of thought like "now we need to empathize with and assuage the asspain of the poor poor Trumpanoids."

Particularly the utterly indefensible "it's your duty to make racists see the light" view DJP posted about. Ugh.

I am not a clever enough bunny but perhaps the intertube hivemind will come through.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:29 (eight years ago)

"but I do want to learn more about problems faced by rural/red state citizens and what we can do to help them and keep our country from falling apart."

don't blue states subsidize red states with tax dollars? that's helping them a lot. understanding them is another thing altogether.

scott seward, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:29 (eight years ago)

I'm in the middle of reading Strangers in Their Own Land by Arlie Russell Hochschild, which offers a more in-depth approach to a similar topic. I was going to wait to start engaging ilx with this topic until after the election had settled down (and I had finished the book), but I do want to learn more about problems faced by rural/red state citizens and what we can do to help them and keep our country from falling apart.

How is the Hochschild book? I listened to a podcast interview with her. She's obviously smart, and I respect on a how she approaches that community as a practitioner, but (like the posts above) I'm skeptical of the project she implied in the interview, which is based around the aforementioned "understanding and engaging" as a political path forward. Embedded in this, I think, is a lot of assuming the "New Deal" coalition was "the norm" that we've tragically lost, all without taking into account that it was formed not by "cultural engagement" but by things like racist policies designed to get whites on board and powerful labor unions at the height of American industrialization.

xp from the other thread

intheblanks, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:30 (eight years ago)

“There have been irregularities in our elections, sometimes even fraud, but never to an extent that it affected the outcome,” said GOP Sen. John McCain, who is up for reelection in Arizona,

lol wtf John who ya foolin

Οὖτις, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:31 (eight years ago)

if this thread is locked and another one started i don't know if i'll recognise it

also, good luck usa

imago, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:31 (eight years ago)

maybe this was in the last thread, but: arpaio down 15 points in latest poll

mookieproof, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:32 (eight years ago)

a lot of assuming the "New Deal" coalition was "the norm" that we've tragically lost

New Deal was opposed tooth and nail by a very vocal and powerful minority that basically viewed FDR as a traitor

Οὖτις, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:33 (eight years ago)

but yeah there is no mythical past (or any society, really) that didn't have a vocal disgruntled minority

Οὖτις, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:33 (eight years ago)

good. Fuck that guy. don't think this can be asserated strenuously enough

Re arpaio

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:33 (eight years ago)

It's somewhat a pity, because they've been tricked and cheated by the GOP, who never ever cared for them. And yeah, the Democrats are the party that tries to help people with government, but what to do with people who vote against help, then shout out that nobody helps them? Obama tried to help, the Supreme Court decided that was up to the states, the red states refused to allow government to help their citizens, and the citizens clapped their hands, then shouted at Obama for not helping them...

To simplify, a lot of democracy is a fight for ressources, and if each of the two parties represented half of the people, and roughly alternated terms in government, then people would receive the same amount of help. But many GOP voters stopped voting for help to themselves, but instead started voting for hurting others, ensuring that women couldn't have abortions, LBGT people couldn't marry, trans persons couldn't piss where they want too, etc. If half the people vote to help themself, and the other half vote to hurt the first half, then the first half might not get everything they want. But the second half gets nothing. And they've gotten nothing, and they're mad as hell, but what's the solution, other than them beginning to vote for their own interests? And no, their jobs hasn't been taken by immigrants or NAFTA, and voting for the guy with the trillion dollar tax cut to the richest isn't helping themself.

Frederik B, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:34 (eight years ago)

Jeb Lund wrote a good thing:

The right wing came up with a pretty sweet gig in the 1960s when it lamented the lack of a conservative media to cosset ideas vulnerable to the scientific method and recorded events. In the short term, making things up takes no time at all; refuting fabrications takes orders of magnitude more. Ginning up bullshit tailors the discourse while forcing opponents to spend so much time trying to prove a negative that their own message gets lost in the outrage that, say, ACORN is running a white-slavery ring.

[...]

Already, Republican voters are being told that any Trump/Pence loss will constitute proof of a rigged election, and while Trump's refusal to pledge to honor the election results scandalizes political analysts as immediately disqualifying, their outrage misses the point. Donald Trump's rejection of essentially the entire of American history is disgusting, but talk show panelists don't have to live in that hell; they just cash checks for reporting on what the screams sound like.

We are a few weeks away from watching the Republican Party find itself immured behind a wall and haunted by phantasms of its own making, anxiety and despair only increasing as real, lived experience grows more terrifyingly distant from what it thought was true. This is a world that cannot be bargained with, because you cannot build a bridge between this one and the imaginary. You cannot compromise with an epistemology that rejects your existence.

Have we shared the important "Stakes is High" essay on here, re: that torched NCGOP office?

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:34 (eight years ago)

How is the Hochschild book? I listened to a podcast interview with her. She's obviously smart, and I respect on a how she approaches that community as a practitioner, but (like the posts above) I'm skeptical of the project she implied in the interview, which is based around the aforementioned "understanding and engaging" as a political path forward. Embedded in this, I think, is a lot of assuming the "New Deal" coalition was "the norm" that we've tragically lost, all without taking into account that it was formed not by "cultural engagement" but by things like racist policies designed to get whites on board and powerful labor unions at the height of American industrialization.

xp from the other thread

― intheblanks, Thursday, October 20, 2016 3:30 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I like the book, but I haven't gotten to any specific point or project yet. I'm reading it kinda slowly, only about a quarter of the way in.

how's life, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:35 (eight years ago)

having a bit of a hard time reconciling the pro-big tent, pro-moderate political strategies advocated by many of the hillary supporters on this board, particularly during primary season, with the more or less purist position taken over the last several posts in the previous thread. i mean i get why posting just about anything vaguely woke in that way is therapeutic given the current climate and probably even safe given the probable outcome of the (presidential) election -- and i know deep down most of us on this board agree, and wish it could be this way -- but it obviously kind of conveniently ignores basic civics and how government actually works and whom it answers to. hillary, for example, would probably strongly disagree

k3vin k., Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:39 (eight years ago)

a lot of assuming the "New Deal" coalition was "the norm" that we've tragically lost

New Deal was opposed tooth and nail by a very vocal and powerful minority that basically viewed FDR as a traitor

― Οὖτις, Thursday, October 20, 2016 12:33 PM (fifty-seven seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah, otm, not disputing that, i'm talking about the broadly defined mid-century dem coalition that combined the entire south, urban blue collar workers, african-americans, and the pro-labor intellectual class, all under the umbrella of one party.

intheblanks, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:42 (eight years ago)

Sabato's latest is fun

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/with-19-days-to-go-clintons-lead-is-bigger-than-ever/

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:43 (eight years ago)

I like the book, but I haven't gotten to any specific point or project yet. I'm reading it kinda slowly, only about a quarter of the way in.

no idea if there's a "project" in the book, what I described definitely felt like what she was getting at in the interview.

intheblanks, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:45 (eight years ago)

What do you mean, k3evin k?

Frederik B, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:47 (eight years ago)

i'm referring to the talk about how red-state voters don't need to be understood or accommodated

k3vin k., Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:49 (eight years ago)

For the GOP the myth of the Restoration subsumes everything else. Candidates, policy positions – they're expendable if they feed the engine for a turning back to a Golden Age of America when the Constitution boasted only ten amendments. It's nihilism that once had élan when the Buckleys and NRO were in charge; now the ugliness is exposed.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:49 (eight years ago)

yeah there was that sheen of gentility (which came in both northern and southern varieties)

Οὖτις, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:51 (eight years ago)

Yeah, but how does that relate to the primaries, kev? I get the sense you might be referring to something I wrote, but I have no idea what your point is. I don't see the link. Bernie Sanders kept talking about a popular revolution and representing the 99%, while Hillary Clinton spoke to getting enough support to get shit through congress. I can't see why my new point doesn't match my old point, if it's me you're referring to?

Frederik B, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:53 (eight years ago)

well the 99% includes a lot of racists/xenophobes/nihilists who don't consider themselves part of the 99%, for one thing

Οὖτις, Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:53 (eight years ago)

having a bit of a hard time reconciling the pro-big tent, pro-moderate political strategies advocated by many of the hillary supporters on this board, particularly during primary season, with the more or less purist position taken over the last several posts in the previous thread. i mean i get why posting just about anything vaguely woke in that way is therapeutic given the current climate and probably even safe given the probable outcome of the (presidential) election -- and i know deep down most of us on this board agree, and wish it could be this way -- but it obviously kind of conveniently ignores basic civics and how government actually works and whom it answers to. hillary, for example, would probably strongly disagree

As an African-American, I strenuously object to and reject the idea that racial harmony can only be possible if I apologize for existing.

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 20 October 2016 19:57 (eight years ago)

i'm not referring to you in particular, fred, nor am i necessarily rehashing a pro-bernie argument. i'm just pointing out what i saw as a contradiction. republicans, moderates, etc are going to have to be accommodated to get anything done in this congress -- this has been one of hillary's selling points, for better or worse! i just found the near-universal praise for a piece (which i didn't read btw lol i have an exam tomorrow) that from what i gathered put forth the argument that their concerns could be ignored pretty humorous. morally, sure, they should be ignored. on twitter and on ilx they don't have to be validated. but in real life, unfortunately they matter

xp dan i think if anyone has paid attention to my posts in the politics threads over the past 7 or 8 years -- and if you haven't i don't blame you -- they would know i'm not a big-tenter, lol

k3vin k., Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:02 (eight years ago)

Hillary has said that half of Trumps supporters were deplorables whom we shouldn't listen to. So she probably would agree with us. I don't think the smart way of governing would be to kowtow to the Trumpkins, rather a combination of trying to appeal to moderate republicans (or rather, create some...) and executive orders. And turn the Supreme Court to the left for a generation. What else is there to do...

I didn't particularly like the piece, btw, so that part of your argument I understand :)

Frederik B, Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:06 (eight years ago)

There is a difference between "how does someone we elect into office find common ground with people who disagree with her and want to see her fail" and "how do we assuage the concerns and fears of an electorate who supported a literal white supremacist". It is not contradictory to want/hope for a President who is good at working with people politically opposed to him/her in order to get things done while not wanting anything personally to do with the electorate that put the intransigent people there in the first place.

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:07 (eight years ago)

not sure it's necessarily a contradiction - you can want to coalition with moderate republicans while writing off extremists as too radical to participate in civil society

Mordy, Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:08 (eight years ago)

DJP said it before I could. Elected officials and constituencies are different things.

Οὖτις, Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:09 (eight years ago)

xposts k3vin the article (which is pretty short btw) is a little more nuanced than that.

...But I know a shit-ton of people down South and in the Midwest, working- and middle-class whites, most of whom never went to college, some not even graduating from high school, who think Donald Trump is a fucking hateful fraud, a showboating pissant, and a giant talking turd. When you try to "figure out" what drives Trump supporters and think that those of us who say, "Yeah, fuck them" are smug coast-clinging liberals, you are insulting the fuck out of the millions of people in Trump country who grew up in similar circumstances and decided that being racist, sexist, Islamophobic, anti-immigrant, and conspiracy-theory-loving jerk is wrong and work to make their area of the United States a little more tolerant and progressive.

i guess people might be otm'ing if various reasons, but for me, the takeaway is fuck trying to "understand" the clear white nationalist racist misogynist homophobes that make up a big chunk of the trump coalition. there's nothing to understand there. but that doesn't equal ignoring red-state voters in general. there are plenty of conservatives who fit into the description in the quote above. i know many of them. i grew up in the middle of nowhere, missouri, and i know plenty of terrible fucking racists, and i also know plenty of people who are disgusted by everything trump represents. we should try to understand and accommodate the latter group, sure. but it's a complete waste of time trying to "understand" a gung-ho trump supporter. so fuck them.

also i am not a big clinton supporter and i don't advocate for the big-tent triangulation with "moderates" strategy

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:13 (eight years ago)

DJP said it before I could. Elected officials and constituencies are different things.

― Οὖτις, Thursday, October 20, 2016 4:09 PM (three minutes ago)

eh, not when the elected officials more or less govern based on right wing Facebook memes their constituents share, but ok

k3vin k., Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:14 (eight years ago)

there's not going to be any triangulation anyway - we've already seen how McConnell acts as Minority Leader. And Ryan is going to be taking fire from the Freedom Caucus from day one, you're never getting anything out of him.

not when the elected officials more or less govern based on right wing Facebook memes their constituents share, but ok

it varies from district to district and rep to rep (or senator to senator). some are smarter and more maneuverable than others.

Οὖτις, Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:15 (eight years ago)

I mean on the one hand there's Inhofe, who is an out and out moron that probably accurately reflects his base. and on the other hand there's someone like Lindsey Graham, who at least gives the appearance of being rational.

Οὖτις, Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:17 (eight years ago)

Is that how it works:

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/789196393202278400

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:36 (eight years ago)

Meanwhile, honestly for all the heavy breathing I see Trump's idiocies the last two days re conceding as just forced hoohah, and so, it seems, does his base as such:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/789177665274023936

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:51 (eight years ago)

BTW this is fun

https://t.co/6TOEaxybOW

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 20:51 (eight years ago)

Just browsing the_donald for schadenfreude guffaws and their top posts currently include such gems as "No evidence, or proof Russia hacked USA! Just another Hillary Lie!" - what do you think is the craziest thing Trump could say and still have them parroting it? Or have we reached the point where there is no answer to that?

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:06 (eight years ago)

"Hillary has a penis"

Neanderthal, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:07 (eight years ago)

"Actual blood relative of Bills"

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:16 (eight years ago)

"There are secret electronic pulses built into the electronic voting booths so that when you vote for me, you get an electric shock until you relent and vote Hillary"

Neanderthal, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:19 (eight years ago)

"dogs can't look up"

Neanderthal, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:19 (eight years ago)

Princeton at 99% HRC which seems about right at this point, can we all tune out now

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:22 (eight years ago)

"I never could've assaulted these women because I'm a homosexual."

flappy bird, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:22 (eight years ago)

World's worst Hollywood Squares right here

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/789199107915026432

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:23 (eight years ago)

More like Alfred E. Newman, right?

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:27 (eight years ago)

It doesn't even matter but I want the oppo bomb to drop already and kick him while he's down because it will make me feel good and I need something to make me feel good.

Evan, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:29 (eight years ago)

Oh joy, Bloomberg will be there, too. Should spark wonderful conversations.

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:32 (eight years ago)

I don't even need oppo, I'd be happy if someone just kicked him.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:32 (eight years ago)

btw, this is a bit niche-audience, but every time i think of trump's sinister, unappealing declaration "I will keep you in suspense," I just flash on Phoney Bone's torn campaign balloon declaring, seemingly, PHONCIBLE P. BONE WILL GET YOU

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:37 (eight years ago)

i'm not referring to you in particular, fred, nor am i necessarily rehashing a pro-bernie argument. i'm just pointing out what i saw as a contradiction. republicans, moderates, etc are going to have to be accommodated to get anything done in this congress -- this has been one of hillary's selling points, for better or worse!

― k3vin k

anybody who believes that "accomodation" is possible under a hillary clinton presidency is fooling themselves. the republican leadership has been beating the "compromise = surrender" drum for years and years and years, and i'm persuaded that they mean it.

i know bleeding hearts have a hard time seeing suffering and doing nothing, and a lot of trump voters are suffering- i don't mean financially, most of them make more money than me, but there yes is genuine suffering there.

the main thing is, you know, let's not be codependent here. you can't help people against their will. if they're going to die screaming that they don't need no help from the gub'mint, that's beyond our reach as a nation to fix.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:37 (eight years ago)

It doesn't even matter but I want the oppo bomb to drop already and kick him while he's down because it will make me feel good and I need something to make me feel good.

― Evan, Thursday, October 20, 2016 5:29 PM (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i would recommend downers?

i've watched a lot of cats do weird and interesting things (slothroprhymes), Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:37 (eight years ago)

The point is more to see the melting anthropomorphic circus peanut hurt

Evan, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:41 (eight years ago)

k3vin i appreciate that you're under time constraints re: reading the thing, but basically the complaint you're raising is off-topic and basically if time is short i'd say put the time into reading it, rather than this response. but anyway the text isn't about cutting deals in congress or getting things done, it's about the idea posited by white liberals that the important hand-wringing project of the day is how to understand the virulent white nationalists and psychos who have staked their coup-ready fervor on trump's maniacal campaign. it's writing off those people and emphatically not writing off their non-maniac red-state republican brethren.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:42 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/TUSK81/status/789134196614631425

nomar, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:47 (eight years ago)

Here's the "Stakes is High" post from a few days ago:

https://medium.com/@cd_hooks/stakes-is-high-6b45374e0157#.sz7sf5ynw

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:50 (eight years ago)

my least favorite De La album

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:52 (eight years ago)

http://i.imgur.com/KTtsD4W.jpg

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:52 (eight years ago)

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-campaign-website-donation-ticker-2016-10

Evan, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:55 (eight years ago)

Via: https://twitter.com/jackdanger/status/788957216120254464/photo/1

Evan, Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:56 (eight years ago)

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-campaign-website-donation-ticker-2016-10

― Evan, Thursday, October 20, 2016 4:55 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Via: https://twitter.com/jackdanger/status/788957216120254464/photo/1

― Evan, Thursday, October 20, 2016 4:56 PM (thirty seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Because of course it is. His entire damn campaign is a hustler in a top hat with a hole in it selling you circus tickets for your whole family at a discount while behind him the circus is packing up to blow town.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:58 (eight years ago)

lol

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 20 October 2016 21:59 (eight years ago)

can't we just wrap this up a little early

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:00 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/789197899024338944

Evan, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:04 (eight years ago)

xpost I was thinking the other night we seem to be in that zone where a not particularly loved or useful TV series is about to broadcast its final episode but that we had to get through the timekilling two episodes before it first.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:04 (eight years ago)

Timekilling activities: https://twitter.com/untimelygamer/status/789139187819610113

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:06 (eight years ago)

*walks out of theater showing a two-year-long adaptation of dante's inferno into the cold, clear night*

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:07 (eight years ago)

xpost It's a shame about Ray.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:07 (eight years ago)

I admit for me it's also because I've already voted -- mailed in my ballot Monday -- and as there was something like 16 state props and almost 26 city ones (no, really), I am interested in the results but...it's going to be a while. Honestly the city races here in SF are the only 'exciting' ones we're having this year.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:10 (eight years ago)

I remember high school friends singing that at me and 14-15 year old me going "why are you singing that, where is that from?" for a while there

xpost

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:11 (eight years ago)

And once I'd actually bought the tape it was even more annoying

See also: kids at summer camp calling me "rain man" and me not getting it

anyway that has nothing to do with this thread, does it.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:14 (eight years ago)

It's a shame about rain man

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:15 (eight years ago)

i shouldn't whine as the effect of a trump win on my life directly would probably be kind of sucky to minimally sucky but christ this has been unpleasant, a thing literally everyone has been saying for months.

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:15 (eight years ago)

@scottbix
President Obama: Marco Rubio is "willing to be anybody just to be somebody."

burn

mookieproof, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:17 (eight years ago)

It's a shame about rain man

― Ned Raggett, Thursday, October 20, 2016 5:15 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Touche.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:18 (eight years ago)

about that poll on trump supporters, you are reading the question wrong.

Will Jordan ‏@williamjordann 3h3 hours ago
Among Trump voters:

If HILLARY CLINTON wins the election, how likely is it to be the result of voter fraud?

Likely 83%
Unlikely 10%

global tetrahedron, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:20 (eight years ago)

Makes a little more sense there!

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:25 (eight years ago)

Meantime, why this isn't a problem at all!

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-national-political-director-steps-back-from-campaign-230120

Jim Murphy, Donald Trump’s national political director, is no longer playing an active role on the campaign, according to three sources briefed on the move.

"I have not resigned but for personal reasons have had to take a step back from the campaign," Murphy said in a statement to POLITICO.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:26 (eight years ago)

His staff really are like the drummers in Spinal Tap

Neanderthal, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:34 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TW6W9iOjTKM

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:37 (eight years ago)

haha yes exactly

sleeve, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:38 (eight years ago)

As far as understanding Trump voters, i know three. One is a real estate agent whose reaction to the breaking of the Ray Rice news was "there ain't no way he hit that bitch", wrote an anti-Common Core song on acoustic guitar, and thinks Henry Rollins is a "pussy" cos he's Liberal.

I think I learned all I needed to about them.

Neanderthal, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:43 (eight years ago)

You sure you're not living in a comedy sketch

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:44 (eight years ago)

wrote an anti-Common Core song on acoustic guitar,

there a youtube link for this or what

global tetrahedron, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:46 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YZXFdikh-70

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:50 (eight years ago)

guy in the corner of the room at a party singing an anti-Common Core song on acoustic guitar

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:50 (eight years ago)

is there a better named candidate than Brickley Paiste?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:52 (eight years ago)

He looked hurt when nobody was listening to it

Neanderthal, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:53 (eight years ago)

oh right: Evan Bayh

xpost

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:53 (eight years ago)

Xxpost

Neanderthal, Thursday, 20 October 2016 22:53 (eight years ago)

he wasn't hurt when he realized he'd written an anti-Common Core song on acoustic guitar?

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:06 (eight years ago)

sheepish, at a bare minimum?

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:06 (eight years ago)

You kidding? Guy probably fancies himself to be a new Dave Matthews.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:08 (eight years ago)

Evan Bayh. The "b", "y", "a" and "h" are all silent

akm, Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:08 (eight years ago)

I wrote a jazz ballad about Simpson-Bowles.

brownie, Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:12 (eight years ago)

Grover Norquist‏ @GroverNorquist

One hour into this debate and the 10 million vapers are waiting to hear who will stand against prohibition.

Oct 19, 2016, 7:00 PM

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:13 (eight years ago)

A waltz about Sarbanes-Oxley

Neanderthal, Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:13 (eight years ago)

I've never more wanted to punch grover norquist in his dick. SHUT UP.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:15 (eight years ago)

I'm fascinated that his new political hobbyhorse is vaper rights. The first couple times, I thought it was joeks, but he's absolutely for real.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:16 (eight years ago)

He went to Burning Man in 2015, changed his life!

nickn, Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:19 (eight years ago)

Head in the clouds, man.

schwantz, Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:21 (eight years ago)

Nice thread title.

I actually enjoyed watching this Al Smith dinner (just about to start) in 2008 and 2012. Seeing Obama and McCain, and then Obama and Romney, trade jokes and compliment each other was, as staged as most of it was, and as hokey as this sounds, a nice break from the din.

Not surprisingly, Clinton and Trump haven't even looked at each other. How do they even fake their way through the next hour?

clemenza, Thursday, 20 October 2016 23:52 (eight years ago)

The ABC News channel on Apple TV has the live feed of this with no commentators so we can watch everybody eat dinner.

aaaaaaaauuuuuuuuu (melting robot) (WilliamC), Friday, 21 October 2016 00:39 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/xwnklmnx/status/789138575749066752

sean gramophone, Friday, 21 October 2016 00:40 (eight years ago)

lol what is this stupid farce?

Treeship, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:03 (eight years ago)

the image of all these people being friends fills me with rage and disgust

Treeship, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:03 (eight years ago)

(talking about the dinner for people whose aren't watching cnn)

Treeship, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:04 (eight years ago)

So weird

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:06 (eight years ago)

these is so uncomfortable.

EZ Snappin, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:07 (eight years ago)

It's disgusting

El Tomboto, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:09 (eight years ago)

making jokes about "pardoning" hillary and hillary is laughing?

Treeship, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:09 (eight years ago)

Hillary laughing at Trump's sad attempt at a joke is exactly why people can't stand this shit

El Tomboto, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:11 (eight years ago)

Why is he still up there? Why do we tolerate this show horse garbage? I thought these people were supposed to stand for ideas

El Tomboto, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:12 (eight years ago)

Fuck everybody who owns a tuxedo

El Tomboto, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:12 (eight years ago)

His best joke...amounts to humiliating his wife.

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:13 (eight years ago)

He's getting booed! At the Al Smith dinner.

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:14 (eight years ago)

no vestige of a beginning, no prospect of an end
when we all disintegrate, it will all happen again

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:14 (eight years ago)

someone should throw a knife at him

Treeship, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:14 (eight years ago)

unlike every candidate ever, he has made these remarks without jest for 18 months

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:14 (eight years ago)

the folks behind the dais look pissed.

EZ Snappin, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:15 (eight years ago)

He reads at a 2nd grade level.

aaaaaaaauuuuuuuuu (melting robot) (WilliamC), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:15 (eight years ago)

Yeah hes such a dick he's bombing

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:15 (eight years ago)

This is just unbelievable.

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:15 (eight years ago)

this is more like it i guess. idk. it was stupid when they were acting like trump was their friend.

Treeship, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:16 (eight years ago)

Fuck this fucking asshole

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:16 (eight years ago)

Kind of amazing. Now I'm glad I watched.

EZ Snappin, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:16 (eight years ago)

Damn. This is BRUTAL.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:16 (eight years ago)

I'm at my computer listening...I can't bring myself to actually watch.

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:16 (eight years ago)

I'm watching in a bar and ignoring the CC and just the faces of everyone else in the field of view is giving me a frisson of nausea by proxy

El Tomboto, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:17 (eight years ago)

if he chokes on a hot dog and begs for the Heimlich, Hillary should walk over to him and say "you must be new here, we the best man" and walk outside

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:17 (eight years ago)

the fossils behind him look horrorstruck

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:18 (eight years ago)

If you've seen the roast episode of Larry Sanders, this is somehow more horrifying.

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:18 (eight years ago)

Wtf is he talking about. I actually thought for a second he might be ok at this

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:19 (eight years ago)

The dude on the left / Trump's right looked genuinely ill

El Tomboto, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:19 (eight years ago)

lol someone really yelled "Jerk!!"??

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:20 (eight years ago)

I like that there's a damn priest sitting between trump and clinton

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:20 (eight years ago)

not a priest! a jolly irish cardinal

Treeship, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:21 (eight years ago)

So what does Clinton do? Hope she self-edits as she goes along and tries to be as innocuous and forgettable as possible. Because Trump's five minutes will be combed over for the next week, at least.

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:22 (eight years ago)

"how bout those Cubs?"

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:22 (eight years ago)

Is it normal for pro-choicers to get a warm reception at this thing?

jmm, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:23 (eight years ago)

well, these are two of the least funny people on the stump since Hoover

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:23 (eight years ago)

@danmericaCNN
Trump now being booed - loudly - for saying Clinton is "pretending not to hate Catholics." Someone yelled "finish."

this sounds amazing

soref, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:24 (eight years ago)

Hillary sounds good!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:25 (eight years ago)

"I'm fascinated that his new political hobbyhorse is vaper rights."

There is a late model black Chevy sedan with all of the parking lights custom blacked out that has the following stickers on the back.

Cursive type Jesus (w/a Superman diamond for the middle S) in back window
Ruger Firearms
Trump: Make America Great Again
I Vape and I Vote

Been trying to figure out whose car it might be, but have not found out so far. I think there is a decent chance it is not a guy as I work in a hospital and there really are not that many guys that work there and the old dudes that work in facilities all got pickups.

earlnash, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:26 (eight years ago)

man clinton is cleaning up with the shittiest dad jokes ever.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:26 (eight years ago)

sorta reminds me that she's a different person after a couple cocktails

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:26 (eight years ago)

Good Mike Pence joke!

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:26 (eight years ago)

"basket of adorables": C+
"formal pantsuits": A

esempiu (crüt), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:27 (eight years ago)

i hope she is secretly sloppily, viciously drunks and that she unloads on donald after warming up the crowd

Treeship, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:27 (eight years ago)

LOL @ Giuliani mouthing, "What's a four?"

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:27 (eight years ago)

that statue of liberty joke.

EZ Snappin, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:27 (eight years ago)

"Donald moved on the buffet like a bitch..."

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:28 (eight years ago)

hahaha

Treeship, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:29 (eight years ago)

someone should throw a knife shoe at him

fixed

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:30 (eight years ago)

Re Bloomsburg: "It's a shame he's not speaking tonight, I'd be curious to hear what a billionaire has to say"

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:30 (eight years ago)

I need to watch this whole thing

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:30 (eight years ago)

LOL @ Giuliani

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:30 (eight years ago)

giuliani reaction shot, brilliant

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:31 (eight years ago)

Poked my head in the room and oh, that look on Guiliani's face...

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:31 (eight years ago)

holy shit, cannot wait to watch this, donald trump being booed off the stage by scions of nyc high society will probably haunt him for the rest of his life.

intheblanks, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:32 (eight years ago)

these jokes are cutting deep

iatee, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:32 (eight years ago)

ICE COLD

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:33 (eight years ago)

I hope Garrison is watching this and sipping a scotch.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:33 (eight years ago)

the line about his campaign managers made me guffaw

esempiu (crüt), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:33 (eight years ago)

lol at Trump's email/wikiLeaks joke. even from a joke construction standpoint it was clumsy and too labored

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:34 (eight years ago)

the Putin horse joke!

EZ Snappin, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:35 (eight years ago)

this is brutal

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:35 (eight years ago)

anyone getting the impression that Melania would rather sit next to Hillary?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:35 (eight years ago)

lol after Trump said "HIllary's not laughing as much as the rest of us", did someone really say "nobody's laughing!"?

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:35 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/789276963441614848/video/1

I am watching this on repeat

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:36 (eight years ago)

Clinton's getting received pretty poorly, but I'm sure that'll be forgotten in light of Trump's speech.

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:36 (eight years ago)

she could have walked on the stage, put the mic under her ass, and farted, then sat back down, and still came out better than him.

I thought you all were exaggerating until I watched the vid above

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:37 (eight years ago)

Al Smith winning the presidency in 1924 is one of my great 20th century what-ifs.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:38 (eight years ago)

that was one of her best speeches

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:40 (eight years ago)

^

esempiu (crüt), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:40 (eight years ago)

yeah

difficult listening hour, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:43 (eight years ago)

agree

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:44 (eight years ago)

bishop dolan actively calling out donald trump. boy.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:44 (eight years ago)

she almost has music when she thinks through those boilerplate lines

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:45 (eight years ago)

She'd had a drink

El Tomboto, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:47 (eight years ago)

a pink lady?

remy bean, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:48 (eight years ago)

SOTU checklist: make sure she's had some wine

El Tomboto, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:48 (eight years ago)

Hillary's havin' fun

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:49 (eight years ago)

haha that was Mike Deaver's strategy with Reagan (he and Clinton are the same age, no?)

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 01:49 (eight years ago)

Jeffrey Lord's comforting himself with the idea that no one will know or care about what was said tonight. Ninety-nine out of 100 times he'd be right. But does he really think the clip about pretending not to hate Catholics won't be unavoidable tomorrow?

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 01:55 (eight years ago)

Trump wrote all those jokes himself didnt he

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:12 (eight years ago)

Clinton & Trump speeches were brutal in entirely different ways

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:12 (eight years ago)

There wasn't even anything joking about "pretending not to hate Catholics." He just threw it out there.

jmm, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:15 (eight years ago)

getting through that two-minute clip of trump was almost impossible. it plays like in a comedy where the point of the scene is that someone is terrible at telling jokes, squinting and reading them slowly off a card, nobody laughs... wow.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Friday, 21 October 2016 02:18 (eight years ago)

"I'm the life of every party I've been to, and I've been to three" was a bit Liz Lemon

jmm, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:22 (eight years ago)

Judis usually drives me up the wall, but he called it - Trump is a Lenny Bruce character: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/--100785

One of his bits, about a comic who plays the London Palladium, perfectly sums up what has happened to Donald Trump in the fall election. (Click on the link to hear it.) It’s about Frank Dell, a third-rate comic who plays Las Vegas lounges, but who tells his agent he wants to play a “class room” like the London Palladium. The agent tries to discourage him, but Dell insists -- “I’m going to murder these people” – and the agent gets him booked there.

El Tomboto, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:25 (eight years ago)

just realized what we really need is a debate that is just the hardest of hardman zings

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:39 (eight years ago)

That may be the first time I've seen Trump laugh.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:40 (eight years ago)

Even if they were mostly jokes at his expense.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:40 (eight years ago)

trump's never been as likeable as when he was laughing at hrc's zings.

sean gramophone, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:46 (eight years ago)

Likable enough. They should still cast him in Ow My Balls.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:52 (eight years ago)

After she wins, she should deliver one joke at Trump's expense for her first 100 days.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:52 (eight years ago)

In context, the "pretending not to hate Catholics" thing felt like the Seinfeld episode where George fails at zinging someone, then just shouts 'I had sex with your wife!"

intheblanks, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:53 (eight years ago)

Another fictional blueprint for Donald Trump, stand-up comedian:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aPqhFUvo8E

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 02:56 (eight years ago)

He loves when people talk about him!

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 03:03 (eight years ago)

all the issues where he gets angry about are when it's about a person he wronged, and the focus is on the person. if you could make it about him, he'd be cool with it!

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 03:04 (eight years ago)

Wrong

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 03:14 (eight years ago)

Sad!

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Friday, 21 October 2016 03:15 (eight years ago)

FIX

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Friday, 21 October 2016 03:15 (eight years ago)

LOL at the pardon me joke

flappy bird, Friday, 21 October 2016 03:15 (eight years ago)

this asshole is the kind of guy who says "just kidding, just kidding" at a roast. in 2016!

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 03:44 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/789276963441614848/video/1

the way he goes forward with Hillary isn't laughing as much as the rest of us! after the chorus of boos is Homer Simpsonesque

esempiu (crüt), Friday, 21 October 2016 04:15 (eight years ago)

who is the woman in red behind the speakers? the one with the boobage? she looks familiar but i can't think of who she is.

scott seward, Friday, 21 October 2016 04:29 (eight years ago)

CNBC's Maria Bartiromo

acerbic (sic)s (will), Friday, 21 October 2016 04:30 (eight years ago)

Maria Bartiromo?

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Friday, 21 October 2016 04:31 (eight years ago)

xp She skipped on over to Fox Business now.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Friday, 21 October 2016 04:31 (eight years ago)

ah right. and hillary just said her name in the clip i'm watching. i haven't had cable for so long.

scott seward, Friday, 21 October 2016 04:31 (eight years ago)

i believe you but i really somehow believed it was brandy burre circa 2005 and we are all somehow in the dumbest episode of The Wire ever

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 04:33 (eight years ago)

heh didn't know that re Bartiromo

acerbic (sic)s (will), Friday, 21 October 2016 04:35 (eight years ago)

xp, as proof:
http://cdn.moviestillsdb.com/sm/e92efece1c9999a5a633c75d6994e405/the-wire.jpg

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 04:36 (eight years ago)

Trump's unearned smugness when he said "Hillary isn't laughing as much as the rest of us" kinda reminds me of Fred Willard's character from Waiting for Gufman.

"Strike it? We've worked with Corky before, we know all the acting terminology"

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 04:39 (eight years ago)

the "I don't know who they're angry at, you or me" was a delightfully hilarious attempt at deflection. like why would they be loudly booing if they were angry at Hillary, they'd be cheering you on, you brisket-head

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 04:40 (eight years ago)

Rosie Gray (@RosieGray)
3 hours ago - View on Twitter
So I have a senior Trump source claiming Trump wrote his Al Smith speech himself. 🤔

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 04:42 (eight years ago)

You don't say.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Friday, 21 October 2016 04:53 (eight years ago)

Are there betting odds on whether or not Trump is still a married man this time next year?

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Friday, 21 October 2016 04:54 (eight years ago)

Because it seemed like the joke he was most proud of tonight was at his wife's expense.

Plus all the sexual assaults and stuff.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Friday, 21 October 2016 04:54 (eight years ago)

https://media.giphy.com/media/3oz8xFXIFYbOD5DFh6/source.gif

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Friday, 21 October 2016 04:57 (eight years ago)

the future rules

flappy bird, Friday, 21 October 2016 05:05 (eight years ago)

This is the world we live in
And these are the hands we give it

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Friday, 21 October 2016 06:09 (eight years ago)

Bumper sticker update: many more Trump stickers in my neighborhood this week. One of my neighbors, who had still been sporting a Romney Ryan after all this time, has stacked a Trump Pence on top of it. I've seen several white stickers that read "Trump Truth". These are not currently available on the Trump site, so it's possible they're bootlegs. Was stuck in traffic behind a Marine Mom who Doesn't Believe the Liberal Media and is still carrying the torch for Carson.

how's life, Friday, 21 October 2016 10:06 (eight years ago)

Al smith dinner was the highlight of the campaign for me. The first glimpse of a post-election future.

calstars, Friday, 21 October 2016 10:17 (eight years ago)

I think that may have been H's best speech of her life?

calstars, Friday, 21 October 2016 10:18 (eight years ago)

As I expected, the Al Smith dinner was even one of the lead stories on Canadian radio this morning. The Trump people last night who were saying it was just of interest to media types either didn't understand how badly Trump miscalculated or were (yet again) pretending they didn't understand.

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 11:22 (eight years ago)

https://i.imgur.com/zglIKRT.gif

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 21 October 2016 11:32 (eight years ago)

Yeah, that Statue of Liberty joke, ouch.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 21 October 2016 11:36 (eight years ago)

I thought the Statue of Liberty joke was her best one, but it didn't go over well in the room. Was simply acknowledging the sexual harassment/assault story too much? To me, it was a joke that got its point across but in a relatively innocuous way--it wasn't "Donald's trying hard right now to pretend he doesn't love groping women."

clemenza, Friday, 21 October 2016 11:53 (eight years ago)

She should've picked a different number. 'A four,' out of context, is easily misconstrued because homophones. 'A three' probably would've landed better in the room. Or she should've omitted the post-punchline pause.</jokemechanicsnerdout>

CeCe Penistongs (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 12:08 (eight years ago)

I didn't get it until she clarified she could be a five if she changed her hair etc. so I was as silent as the audience at first. Like I didn't understand she was saying "a 4"

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 12:12 (eight years ago)

some of the media is doing its usual downplaying of the boos by pointing out HIllary got cold reception at times, "candidates traded awkward jabs", though a few have pointed out that his boos were definitely the loudest.

I mean the video speaks for itself, obv

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 12:18 (eight years ago)

In terms of surgical bloodletting, the billionaire line was the best by far.

CeCe Penistongs (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 12:19 (eight years ago)

Apropos of nothing I looked up the precinct-level results for Cuyahoga County in 2012 to see how my particular neighborhood voted. I live in Cleveland Heights, an East Side near suburb bordering Cleveland that's considered fairly, if not very, liberal. I was interested to see how a small concentration of conservative voters -- in this case, the Orthodox Jews who are a large part of my precinct -- can affect results.

Obama won Cuyahoga County overall by with 69.32% of the votes. He won Cleveland Heights with an astonishing 84.64%.

In my precinct, with 1158 registered voters and 826 ballots cast, he won with only 55%. My precinct had the smallest margin of victory of any of Cleveland Heights's 37 precincts. The precincts bordering mine had Obama win percentages of 83%, 83%, 81% and 66%.

That year, nearly every single Orthodox family on four streets had a Romney/Ryan sign. (As well as signs for Republican Josh Mandel, who was challenging incumbent Sherrod Brown for Senate.) This year, not one of them has a sign for anything at all.

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Friday, 21 October 2016 12:21 (eight years ago)

in indianapolis, gary johnson has more yard signs than trump does. johnson does make me roll my eyes, but if people feel like they need to, they might as well go ahead.

i don't feel like there are as many signs out as usual. nor bumper stickers, though bumper stickers have become less and less popular as a political statement over the years. i feel like there were more bumper stickers during the primaries. maybe it's selection bias. i wouldn't put a clinton bumper sticker on my car, both because i'm not super proud to support her and because i don't want to risk the vandalism, but i'm definitely voting for her.

one pretty interesting sign lineup in front of a big house around here- signs for the whole republican slate of candidates, and then a sign for the democrat john gregg for governor. (no signs for presidential candidates at that house.)

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 12:35 (eight years ago)

there are like no Clinton signs here and few bumper stickers, most I see are for Trump, but this has more to do with Trump voters being loud, obnoxious assholes about liking Trump than suggesting he's the most popular guy in my county.

i got my mother (who is a HIllary supporter) a HIllary action figure for her birthday

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 12:37 (eight years ago)

I guess it's not really an 'action figure', more a 'figurine', though it would be cool if the limbs moved and did karate

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 12:37 (eight years ago)

I saw I think my first Trump sign ever when I was in Daytona last week.

CeCe Penistongs (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 12:46 (eight years ago)

there are quite a few near businesses in what they call the Milk District here (which is another way of saying, a more affluent part of town)

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 12:47 (eight years ago)

i wouldn't put a clinton bumper sticker on my car, both because i'm not super proud to support her and because i don't want to risk the vandalism, but i'm definitely voting for her.

I haven't experienced any vandalism yet, but I'm concerned. I'm taking it off as soon as the elections over.

I forgot to mention that there is a prominently-placed Clinton Kaine yard sign in my neighborhood - one of the first houses on the main road in. That's gotta piss off so many of the Trumpites who drive past it every day. I just checked my precinct results for 2012 and it was 492 Obama to 674 Romney, which is better than I thought, to be honest.

how's life, Friday, 21 October 2016 12:52 (eight years ago)

bemused by fixation on yard signs and bumper stickers tbh

the kids are alt right (darraghmac), Friday, 21 October 2016 12:55 (eight years ago)

same

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 12:58 (eight years ago)

Well, for me at least, it's interesting that there are far fewer than I've seen in past elections. It's a visual indicator of the general lack of enthusiasm.

how's life, Friday, 21 October 2016 13:01 (eight years ago)

bemused by fixation on yard signs and bumper stickers tbh

yeah it's the weirdest thing idgi

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:06 (eight years ago)

amazed how few people are choosing to wear straw boaters emblazoned with their chosen candidate's name this time around

doo-doo diplomacy (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:07 (eight years ago)

The only noteworthy thing I've seen in that regard was a car plastered with incoherent ravings about Hillary that were printed out on 8.5 x 11 sheets and then taped all over the trunk and rear bumper, alongside an Infowars sticker and another indicating the driver's willingness to brake for Beatles fans. My gf got a picture but I urged her to make haste because the chances of the owner owning a gun they were willing to use seemed relatively high.

CeCe Penistongs (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:08 (eight years ago)

We get lots of American tourists in my local, and I leave them alone (unless they have a pirates hat or some such) but a couple of the old guys here insist on asking them about politics, which I feel is rude and likely to make people uncomfortable. Anyway a couple were in the other day, and someone asked them about trump, and I eavesdropped. She was soft Clinton, he wouldn't say how he was voting, but he did say 'she's a murderer, though, you can't escape that'. But at one point she said 'but the people who vote Clinton, they're the ghetto people'. Blech.

two crickets sassing each other (dowd), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:22 (eight years ago)

he did say 'she's a murderer, though, you can't escape that'

well there is that

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:24 (eight years ago)

i don't think paying attention to yard signs is any worse than actually listening to the music they play in cvs.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:32 (eight years ago)

Harden My Heart by Quarterflash, this morning.

how's life, Friday, 21 October 2016 13:35 (eight years ago)

I live in a v liberal neighborhood which you might expect to be holding its nose while voting for HRC but in truth there are Clinton-Kaine signs at literally more than half the houses. Sometimes accompanied by a faded Bernie sign.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:38 (eight years ago)

The Al Smith, Gridiron, and Correspondent's dinners are holdovers from a different time, when an air of civility in person was more expected (despite politics pretty much always being a savage business). In the Washington of my childhood you could tell that Bob Michel or Tip O'Neill or whoever might excoriate each other in a speech, play golf the next day, and good-naturedly rib one another in a gala speech.

When contemporary politicians try to do the whole "put our differences aside, for charity" it comes off very forced and false.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:39 (eight years ago)

And also there's the thing where Trump isn't a politician and thinks that good-natured ribbing looks like a Nelson Muntz impression.

CeCe Penistongs (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:43 (eight years ago)

(Was really hoping he'd have his long-awaited 'Hank's Night in the Sun' moment last night, alas.)

CeCe Penistongs (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:46 (eight years ago)

Maybe if he hired pros to write his rambling...

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 21 October 2016 13:51 (eight years ago)

I'm sure it's difficult to delegate when you're the smartest and funniest and richest and most powerful and healthiest and most woman-respecting and most tolerant and generally most unquestionably amazing man in the known universe.

CeCe Penistongs (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:53 (eight years ago)

At the end of this interview you get the feeling the damage this campaign has done to his name has begun to sink in:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-ends-interview-racist-sexist

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 21 October 2016 13:54 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/789276963441614848/video/1

the way he goes forward with Hillary isn't laughing as much as the rest of us! after the chorus of boos is Homer Simpsonesque

― esempiu (crüt), Thursday, October 20, 2016 9:15 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

also trump asking if they're booing him or hillary is as close to a "are you saying boo or boo-urns?" moment I'll ever see from a presidential candidate in my lifetime.

intheblanks, Friday, 21 October 2016 13:54 (eight years ago)

The only noteworthy thing I've seen in that regard was a car plastered with incoherent ravings about Hillary that were printed out on 8.5 x 11 sheets and then taped all over the trunk and rear bumper

saw a car matching this description the day after the hurricane. I'd stopped by my local coffee shop to discover they were still without electricity and therefore closed, and it looked like about half a dozen dudes had taken advantage of the opportunity to conduct an impromptu white power klatch at one of the tables outside (one of the other guys at the table was wearing a confederate flag tee). sadly, i'm sure this was an entirely different car.

evol j, Friday, 21 October 2016 13:55 (eight years ago)

Giuliani's face was the best.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:56 (eight years ago)

many xposts

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 21 October 2016 13:56 (eight years ago)

i'm sure trump had help with that speech, I can't imagine him sitting him sitting down at a computer to write it. I'm sure it was him and some staffers spitballing, someone on staff is just covering his ass now.

intheblanks, Friday, 21 October 2016 13:57 (eight years ago)

At the end of this interview you get the feeling the damage this campaign has done to his name has begun to sink in:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-ends-interview-racist-sexist

in that interview he's still talking about GDP being at 1% - that he hasn't got the faintest fucking clue about anything this close to the election is actually kind of an achievement in itself

doo-doo diplomacy (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 21 October 2016 14:04 (eight years ago)

i don't know if some deaths at the polls are avoidable this year? and i wonder what it would take to hold trump directly responsible. i am genuinely hoping he and some of his people do jail time for sedition and/or reckless endangerment.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 14:07 (eight years ago)

Conway walked out of an interview too.

Soon their press availabilities will go like this:

"Well, let's get started. Um.... Look! A baby wolf!"

runs away

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 21 October 2016 14:09 (eight years ago)

checked my precinct's 2012 count and it was 1,104/343 for Obama/Romney

I feel like we can improve on that, get that R number down a little

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:11 (eight years ago)

I have no idea what statistic he could even think he's referring to with the 1% GDP thing. This year's growth is only 1% larger than last year's? idk

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:12 (eight years ago)

the only deaths at the polls I am scared of is the extremely old poll workers keeling over from the excitement

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:13 (eight years ago)

i don't know if some deaths at the polls are avoidable this year?

wtf dumb fantasy is this

AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 21 October 2016 14:16 (eight years ago)

There arent going to be any deaths at the polls guys

Xp

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:16 (eight years ago)

You know, the most telling thing in that interview is this word salad:

"Well I think they are doing themselves a tremendous disservice. We’re actually up substantially in Ohio. We have tremendous support from the people. And I think they’re doing themselves a tremendous disservice. We have a couple of cases where people that aren’t supporting me. They are losing and I’m winning states, and you’ve seen that, that’s all over the place," Trump said.

"So you know, I was very disappointed in Rob, but he is free to do whatever he has to do," he continued. "We’re doing fantastically well in Ohio and Rasmussen just came out – the poll – we’re three up nationwide, and IBJ just came out and we’re one up and that was the most accurate poll of the season last year. So I think we are doing really well."

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:19 (eight years ago)

there will be deaths, but 100% related to fireworks related injuries

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:19 (eight years ago)

lol someone should tell him how Rasmussen fared last time

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:20 (eight years ago)

"Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I am having some beautiful pictures taken in which I have a big smile on my face. I will look happy, content, like a very nice person, which in theory I am"

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:20 (eight years ago)

I feel pretty confident that Trump is dying at the polls

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Friday, 21 October 2016 14:24 (eight years ago)

Entertaining:

https://www.wnyc.org/story/front-group-lawsuit-and-pi-how-trump-rigged-system-delay-gambling-new-york/

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:26 (eight years ago)

Meanwhile, and much more seriously, a hell of a read here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2016/10/21/what-its-like-to-experience-the-2016-election-as-both-a-conservative-and-a-sex-abuse-survivor/

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:28 (eight years ago)

On a lighter note, this guy is the academic version of Bill Mitchell

http://www.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/helmut_norpoth_donald_trump_victory.html

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:41 (eight years ago)

what is this "Stakes is High"/NCGOP essay that someone mentioned upthread?

evol j, Friday, 21 October 2016 14:46 (eight years ago)

evol,

https://medium.com/@cd_hooks/stakes-is-high-6b45374e0157#.w3ime9bqh

tldr version is: It's all well and good for northern/urban liberals to pat themselves on the back for how civil and empathetic they're being about the fire in the NCGOP office.

Meanwhile the GOP in southern/rural environs - notably but not exclusively NC - has unleashed spittle-flecked gobs of racism, disenfranchisement, destruction of the common weal, and generally been complete assholes.

So the author is not so impressed by how fast Boston Democrats fundraised to rebuild an office. Author kinda wishes some of that same energy could be harnessed to help those who are genuinely downtrodden and suffering in red states. Hint: it ain't the people who set up a Republican campaign office.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 21 October 2016 14:54 (eight years ago)

you guys who are pooh-poohing the ideas of deaths at the polls are whistling in the dark imo.
i consider the consistent calls to "go to the polls and watch for voter fraud" and "the election is rigged, we have to be vigilant" to be fairly straightforward class/race baiting and more likely than not to lead to either a lone gun nut or a violent separatist group staking out a rural polling center and either confronting the police / being confronted by the police / confronting voters and leading to a shootout or number of shootouts.
the sole remaining trump option is to suppress voter turnout and nudging forward nationally televised fear or intimidation in communities (likely deep in a red state) that don't possess the resources or political will to combat this sort of small scale terrorism seems the intended result. i am honestly not convinced that an already beleaguered and paranoid small town constabulary won't shoot first.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 14:57 (eight years ago)

i don't think people are gonna die en masse. but i'd be surprised if the election passes without eruptions of violence and potentially murderous violence.
I very much would like to be proven wrong!

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 14:59 (eight years ago)

that shit wouldn't happen in a small town, it'd happen in a denser community where some white dude thinks people are defrauding the government and shows up to start shit

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:00 (eight years ago)

i don't think people are gonna die en masse. but i'd be surprised if the election passes without eruptions of violence and potentially murderous violence.
I very much would like to be proven wrong!

― the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, October 21, 2016 10:59 AM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yea we'll see. i was deeply scared about shit happening at the RNC this summer and it was pretty uneventful thankfully

marcos, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:02 (eight years ago)

look, there's no question that donald trump is stoking the fires of racial and political violence, and has been since the beginning of his campaign, but it's not "whistling in the dark" to point out the remarkably low level of political violence so far this year. what, you think all the nutjobs are waiting until election day to go out and start shooting people? obviously it's a possibility, but going out and creating a climate of fear and paranoia ourselves isn't exactly going to make things better.

the liberals who gave to the ncgop are even stupider than the backers of "star citizen", and that's saying something. just a classic stupid liberal trick. one supposes that if somebody burned down the klan headquarters, they'd donate to the klan to show their commitment to free and open expression.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:06 (eight years ago)

There's the potential for violence, absolutely, but I think there's much more potential for swaggering douchegarglers talkin' big and makin' a big dumb spectacle of themselves. It'll be like the 'can you believe this?!' dude in line at the post office writ large.

WTF does monitoring for voter fraud even entail, anyway? Anyone swayed by Trump's verbiage is someone who's automatically demonstrated that they don't understand the basics of the electoral process. Why don't they send some people to monitor the coding of the software used in the booths while they're at it? Make sure the litho plates are properly set before the ballots are printed? Fucking idiots.

CeCe Penistongs (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:10 (eight years ago)

Wow, James Woods is actually an evil fucking cockfarmer now.

https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/789391010757435394

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:10 (eight years ago)

"now"

CeCe Penistongs (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:12 (eight years ago)

The classic fatal flaw of liberalism is its earnest conviction that fascism and other violent ideologies can be accommodated into the liberal enlightenment discourse. The idea of anathematizing fascism makes liberals cringe and whine about "free speech" as much as campus social justice movements do.

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:12 (eight years ago)

xp i don't see how stating the obvious (that trump and his organization is intentionally and increasingly calling for violence at the polls) is "creating a climate of fear and paranoia"; i'm just saying 1) watch your ass and 2) these fuckers need to be held responsible for setting the fire this time.

again, i very much am not snidely crowing about this in the hopes of being a cassandra; I'd love to be wrong! But it looks a lot different on the ground in impoverished communities than it does from big cities and when I speak to folks back home there is a great deal of rage and gun clasping talk.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:12 (eight years ago)

the responses to those tweets are disgusting too

xp fuck you james woods

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:13 (eight years ago)

silby otm there; it's all reality show bullshit until you meet one of these assholes at the polls with a shotgun

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:13 (eight years ago)

Even if things escalated to violence, I have trouble imagining anyone successfully convincing Trump to make a statement to his supporters to deescalate it. Like it just seems like it would very hard for him to say anything to deflate their enthusiasm since he's is so happy that so many people think of him as a hero. He'd say anything to perpetuate this fame and support he has it's like paradise for him. Also why I believe its so hard for him to say he'll concede- he doesn't want to be directly responsible for disappointing these people.

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:15 (eight years ago)

My training class to be a poll observer is this Wednesday, so I'll let you know what tips they give us for if any of these people show up. Aside from "Call the police" and "duck."

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:15 (eight years ago)

open carry + incitement to go to the polls and be captain save a trump is a recipe for disaster imo. I hope to be wrong but I can see a bunch of idiots like the guy in the boston globe article standing around a polling place with a gun yelling about how hes just trying to exercise free speech.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:16 (eight years ago)

it's all reality show bullshit until you meet one of these assholes at the polls with a shotgun

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZkjo3mNmsA

it isn't gonna happen, not in the way you're describing anyway - ie a politically motivated nutjob goes to a polling place and guns down non-white-skinned people. While one can never rule out gun violence in America, it's also totally unpredictable and doesn't generally follow this kind of specific political logic.

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:19 (eight years ago)

I can see a bunch of idiots like the guy in the boston globe article

I guarantee you this guy was immediately flagged/contacted by the secret service/FBI

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:20 (eight years ago)

and one of the reasons it isn't going to happen is the same reason it didn't happen at the RNC - everyone was already on the lookout for it

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:21 (eight years ago)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Black_Panther_Party_voter_intimidation_case

the only poll watchers I trust

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:21 (eight years ago)

hah we need them to show up to the polls armed so we can get open carry thrown out immediately. worked in california in the 70s..

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:23 (eight years ago)

I just watched the roasts today. Trump's things about HRC hating Catholics and being fired from the Watergate commission, these things seem to be circling around the right wing web despite being based on nothing. I doubt anyone who doesn't follow facebook macros has heard about either of these. I had thought the watergate joke was booed because it was such a stale reference.

Einstein, Kazanga, Sitar (abanana), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:23 (eight years ago)

xp the RNC was an isolated area surrounded by six thousand police; we're talking about the entire united states.
i genuinely wish i was as sure of the situation as you are shakey.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:25 (eight years ago)

it's all reality show bullshit until you meet one of these assholes at the polls with a shotgun

feel like liberals are running with this bs just as much as Trump, probably even moreso in an effort to make him look extra scary. he's a horrible enough person imo running with doomsday scenarios should be unnecessary.

based on past experience with elections we're going to have a handful of 2nd amendment dudes excersizing their rights and cosplaying in their camo and that's about it.

AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:26 (eight years ago)

so CROOKED she got fired from the WATERGATE COMMISSION

yeah idk that was a case about extreme abuse of power on the part of a republican president, not sure what you're getting at, man

did you guys see that the whitewater case prosecutor endorsed Clinton?

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:26 (eight years ago)

lol lil chris whatever it takes to help you sleep at night..

“I’m disappointed in Roger going to work for the Trump campaign,” Wallace told the Los Angeles Times in an interview published Thursday. “We have had to fight back for a lot of years against claims that we’re an arm of the Republican Party. We aren’t. Anybody who watches me on ‘Fox News Sunday’ knows that I’m not. I think it has given people who don’t like Fox News in the first place something to talk about. It allows people to say, ‘I told you so,’ when it’s not really true.”

Wallace told the LA Times that he has not spoken to Ailes since he was ousted from the network.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:27 (eight years ago)

xp based on past experience with elections, we won't have a major party demagogue openly refusing to accept the election results before they are cast! the conversation has changed, it's not unrealistic to expect the outcomes to do the same.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:28 (eight years ago)

i was hoping hillary would say something like "As crazy as it seems Donald and I used to get along great. In fact, I went to his wedding in 2005. Something tells me I won't be invited to his next one, though."

nomar, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:28 (eight years ago)

Anyway on a lighter note

http://www.rollingstone.com/music/lists/tim-kaines-music-top-5-replacements-cornershop-and-more-w445695/the-replacements-w445699

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:30 (eight years ago)

Yeah Hillary's face at the top of that hating Catholic joke reflects everyone's reaction who isn't in the know on the bullshit Trump is regurgitating. "OH! what now? ok then?"

xposts

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:30 (eight years ago)

great photo

http://i.onionstatic.com/avclub/6075/31/16x9/1280.jpg

nomar, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:31 (eight years ago)

It's not unusual for a candidate to refuse to countenance losing an election ahead of the actual poll, in public anyway.

However, refusing to recognise the result is something that no-one's actually hinted at either.

Mark G, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:31 (eight years ago)

Trump is so terrible, i mean everything he says about the election results screams "i'm a loser who's going to lose." he could have said something like, "I'm going to accept the results because on November 8th, we're going to go out there and win and make America great again!" but instead he says "i'll accept the results if i win", which is just whining.

nomar, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:33 (eight years ago)

North Carolina early voting report:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/789477974353518592

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:35 (eight years ago)

we're going to have a handful of 2nd amendment dudes excersizing their rights and cosplaying in their camo and that's about it.

otm

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:35 (eight years ago)

lol kissinger actively dying in that pic xp

ein Sexmonster (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:36 (eight years ago)

it isn't gonna happen, not in the way you're describing anyway - ie a politically motivated nutjob goes to a polling place and guns down non-white-skinned people. While one can never rule out gun violence in America, it's also totally unpredictable and doesn't generally follow this kind of specific political logic.

https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2016/10/14/3-men-arrested-plot-bomb-kansas-apartment-complex-mosque-following-presidential-election

Three members of a southwest Kansas militia dubbed the "Crusaders” were arrested Friday on charges stemming from a plot to attack a housing complex that houses a mosque in Garden City, Kansas.
Curtis Allen, 49, Gavin Wright, 49, of Liberal, Kan., and Patrick Stein, 47, a resident of a nearby Dodge City, Kan., had stockpiled firearms and explosives. They planned to use four explosive-laden vehicles parked at the corners of the complex, which is home to a number of Somali immigrants, officials said during a news conference.
The group, which called itself the “Crusaders” had prepared a manifesto in which they said they hoped their attack, scheduled for the day after the General Election, would “wake people up,” Tom Beall, acting U.S. Attorney for the District of Kansas, said.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:36 (eight years ago)

haha with these guys why is it always this response, it's always got to be the LEAST RACIST PERSON ON EARTH

Marshall still asked Trump to respond, prompting the Republican nominee to turn back around and say, "I am the least racist person you’ve ever met." Trump then walked away from the camera.

out of 8 billion ppl def I know that I am the least racist!

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:38 (eight years ago)

xp

According to the complaint, Stein said:
"I'm angry that our politicians are no good, lying, caniving, crooked, corrupt, treasonist, assholes that should be imprisoned at the least...I'm angry we allow one of the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Hillary Clinton) on the planet to run for president while under investigation by the FBI...I'm angry that elections are rigged by the elitist (FYI: YOUR VOTE DOESN'T MATTER ANYMORE)”

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:39 (eight years ago)

lol did you guys see the melania vs. people magazine document? the only things that were objected to that they wanted retracted were related to a brief mention at the end where the writer spoke to melania. absolutely no objections about the passages about her husband's behavior

there have been a couple things like this, I really think she wants her name kept out of the really imprudent bits and realizes she's going to have to make a run for it sooner rather than later

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:40 (eight years ago)

it seems like the campaign is trying to spin it as Trump refusing to pre-emptively give up his right to contest results in court - which is not actually what he was asked, but this sort of dissembling is par for the course with this campaign. Maybe he just misunderstood the question because he is legitimately that stupid, i.e., too stupid to understand that contesting results in courts *is part of the electoral process* and that the final result that gets certified, whether that entails any legal wrangling or not, is what the question was actually about. (Of course in the unlikely event a case went to the Supreme Court and he lost Trump would probably claim it was unfair etc. - he might have a point given Ginsberg's comments, unfortunately)

xp

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:40 (eight years ago)

if melania files for divorce on november 7 i might die laughing

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:41 (eight years ago)

haha with these guys why is it always this response, it's always got to be the LEAST RACIST PERSON ON EARTH

Marshall still asked Trump to respond, prompting the Republican nominee to turn back around and say, "I am the least racist person you’ve ever met." Trump then walked away from the camera.

out of 8 billion ppl def I know that I am the least racist!

― blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, October 21, 2016 11:38 AM (fifty-eight seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

And with a straight face he would say Hillary is THE MOST RACIST PERSON YOU'VE EVER MET.

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:41 (eight years ago)

not a polling place, ulysses. also dudes were caught, which sort of invalidates your point a bit.

if you're worried about white supremacists/militia violence I hate to say it but that threat is a constant, as opposed to an aberration, in America.

xp

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:42 (eight years ago)

And the greatest evidence yet Bill Mitchell is running his own con:

https://twitter.com/mitchelleviii/status/789489256209285121

You just wait and see. You will regret your words when im warming Trumps seats before he sits in them.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:42 (eight years ago)

i know ripping on his wife was nagl but i thought trump's best joke was the one about michelle/melania

marcos, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:43 (eight years ago)

ZS with a great one here:

http://www.newsweek.com/ridiculous-stories-behind-donald-trumps-film-and-tv-cameos-511713

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:44 (eight years ago)

Personally I think the highest chance for things getting out of hand is rallying around Trump refusing to concede, but he would have to handle it in the worst possible way for it to have the highest probability of shitfanning.

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:44 (eight years ago)

And with a straight face he would say Hillary is THE MOST RACIST PERSON YOU'VE EVER MET.

― Evan, Friday, October 21, 2016 10:41 AM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

B-b-but I heard that nasty woman has so much hate in her heart! He wouldn't say it if it wasn't true.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:45 (eight years ago)

xpost ned i think that's a parody acct

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:46 (eight years ago)

xp shakey, suggesting that my point is invalid because it's "not a polling place" tells you're more interested in the rhetoric than the actual danger. these are politically motivated racists tying a murderous action to the election; I doubt they are alone.

again, because i don't want to get heated over this shit on the internet of all places: 1) watch your ass, 2) if the shit hits the fan and deaths do occur, i hope we can find a way to make trump and his organization pay for their fair share... and not just financially but with time in prison.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:48 (eight years ago)

ned i think that's a parody acct

Why so it is. Truly he has ascended to the highest level of celebrity.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:49 (eight years ago)

Anyway, it's not that the potentially violent have been waiting for the polls, it's that the polls represent the time when the potentially violent are brought in close contact with the people they hate. There are always sparks, but the mixture of gun-ownership, conspiracy theory and hate that trump has created means the chance of those sparks causing a conflagration is higher than before. Some Trump supporter challenged someone to prove their eligibility, they refuse, officials get involved (confirming the conspiracy) and stuff will go wrong. I hope it doesn't, and not being an American all I can do is hope/pray that it doesn't. But I would be surprised if the night passes without violence (or, more violence than is usual).

two crickets sassing each other (dowd), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:49 (eight years ago)

Charles Pierce on that fucking Al Smith dinner:

The Trump campaign these days has all the inherent charm and optimism of a bankruptcy clearance sale. Off the media room at the debate on Wednesday night, the Trump children were romanced in the half-light by Sean Hannity while, over behind a partition, Sarah Palin entertained film crews of foreign lands. Les Americains, zey are so, how you say, tres amusantes. She stuck up for Trump's announced plan to monkeywrench the election results. "Why wouldn't-cha?" was clearly audible over the cacophony of questions asked in broken English and answered in obliterated English.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:52 (eight years ago)

Anyway on a lighter note

http://www.rollingstone.com/music/lists/tim-kaines-music-top-5-replacements-cornershop-and-more-w445695/the-replacements-w445699

Tim Kaine revealed to be a former ILXor circa 2004

¶ (DJP), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:53 (eight years ago)

those kaine picks (dave matthews aside) are fairly endearing

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:55 (eight years ago)

The Cornershop one is the real surprise!

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:56 (eight years ago)

not being an American all I can do is hope/pray that it doesn't. But I would be surprised if the night passes without violence (or, more violence than is usual)

why would you be surprised? if you actually lived in America and spent any time in small towns i don't think you would feel the same way. the media has a vested interest in hyping shit up, this "election rigged = post-election violence???" is the latest example and imo as irresponsible as anything Trump says.

AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:56 (eight years ago)

idk man you've seemed weirdly paranoid about this election the entire campaign tbh

"watch your ass" lol do you really think there's dangerous armed Trump supporters in the Mission in SF

xp

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:57 (eight years ago)

i hope we can find a way to make trump and his organization pay for their fair share... and not just financially but with time in prison.

and this... I mean, jeez calm down. For one thing there's no way Trump campaign would be liable unless they gave *specific instructions* about a violent act and lol do you really think *that's* going to happen?! wtf

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:58 (eight years ago)

the media will keep us in suspense

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 15:59 (eight years ago)

those kaine picks (dave matthews aside) are fairly endearing

Given the Virginia connection I will call it smart politics.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:59 (eight years ago)

^^^ OTM

sleeve, Friday, 21 October 2016 15:59 (eight years ago)

Some Trump supporter challenged someone to prove their eligibility, they refuse,

this is against the law, there will be a ton of witnesses/poll workers/crowds - this seems really unlikely to me

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:00 (eight years ago)

there's a secret word that Trump is gonna say on Election day and it will trigger his supporters to attack. we have two weeks to find out the word

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:01 (eight years ago)

Also, consent decree:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/why-the-rnc-desperately-needs-to-not-getting-dragged-into-trump-s-poll-watcher-talk

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:02 (eight years ago)

tim kaine reminds me of a bunch of upbeat liberal white dudes from VA and NC in their 40s and 50s that i've known over the years, it is a type, going to a bluegrass show and drinking a craft beer is their way of letting loose a little

marcos, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:02 (eight years ago)

the best thing about refusing to concede is that the votes get counted regardless

I would guess someone on Clinton's team is currently figuring out what time they're going to give a victory speech if Trump refuses to concede. Midnight?

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:02 (eight years ago)

Separately, some interesting bits:

Fox Business reported that before Wednesday's debate, Adelson had sent an email to Trump, telling him to stop attacking fellow Republicans like House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), and to spend more time focusing on issues than complaining about media coverage. Though Trump has since quieted somewhat about his fellow Republicans, he continues to blame the national media for "rigging" the election.

One anonymous Adelson associate told Fox Business that Adelson had told him “Trump doesn’t listen to anyone—not even his family or Steve Bannon.” That associated added that Adelson told him he liked the Republican nominee “less and less.”

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:03 (eight years ago)

if you actually lived in America and spent any time in small towns i don't think you would feel the same way.

i actually live in america and lived for 25 years in an 98% white town of six thousand people.

idk man you've seemed weirdly paranoid about this election the entire campaign tbh

would love to see some examples of my paranoia quoted?

For one thing there's no way Trump campaign would be liable unless they gave *specific instructions* about a violent act and lol do you really think *that's* going to happen?! wtf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_WZGM6GSPA

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:03 (eight years ago)

I would guess someone on Clinton's team is currently figuring out what time they're going to give a victory speech if Trump refuses to concede. Midnight?

― mh 😏, Friday, October 21, 2016 1

7:30 p.m.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:03 (eight years ago)

According to the complaint, Stein said:
"I'm angry that our politicians are no good, lying, caniving, crooked, corrupt, treasonist, assholes that should be imprisoned at the least...I'm angry we allow one of the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Hillary Clinton) on the planet to run for president while under investigation by the FBI...I'm angry that elections are rigged by the elitist (FYI: YOUR VOTE DOESN'T MATTER ANYMORE)”

wow jill stein not fucking around

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:03 (eight years ago)

did Stein actually mime "parentheses" around Hillary Clinton

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:04 (eight years ago)

Ned is right.

I will forgive Kaine for namechecking the (bad and hated) DMB. He's a Virginian of more or less my generation. Many of us thought "Satellite" was a decent jam in 1993, when Dave and the guys played the Flood Zone every Wednesday. The air was warm and the beer was not great, but the dizzyingly attractive art school girls with the chunky glasses all got up to dance. They were wearing combat boots under their long cotton skirts. You had to be there, it was a moment and at that time and in that place it made sense.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:04 (eight years ago)

I would guess someone on Clinton's team is currently figuring out what time they're going to give a victory speech if Trump refuses to concede. Midnight?

― mh 😏, Friday, October 21, 2016 1

7:30 p.m.

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, October 21, 2016 9:03 AM

Last assumption I heard is that it could essentially be over by 6 pm PDT. Which I'd be fine with.

Ned is right.

I will forgive Kaine for namechecking the (bad and hated) DMB. He's a Virginian of more or less my generation. Many of us thought "Satellite" was a decent jam in 1993, when Dave and the guys played the Flood Zone every Wednesday. The air was warm and the beer was not great, but the dizzyingly attractive art school girls with the chunky glasses all got up to dance. They were wearing combat boots under their long cotton skirts. You had to be there, it was a moment and at that time and in that place it made sense.

You know, you really just did capture an era there.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:05 (eight years ago)

indeed!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:06 (eight years ago)

"caniving" <--- please tell me that this is actually what the complaint said

¶ (DJP), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:06 (eight years ago)

Gotta love trolling:

https://twitter.com/etuckerAP/status/789494448786923520

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:06 (eight years ago)

jill stein is such a dipshit

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:06 (eight years ago)

Last assumption I heard is that it could essentially be over by 6 pm PDT. Which I'd be fine with.

Yeah! lol - do we need to wait with bated breath for Oregon, Washington, and California's returns?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:07 (eight years ago)

Also, shit, marcos has me pegged

Also I get what Ulysses is saying about wanting to find some way for Trompe and yr Trompazoids to be punished, if the worst should happen.

I dunno. In the law as it stands, I think incitement is very difficult to prove as a criminal matter but it may be interesting to pursue civil cases. As a reflexive optimist I will continue to hope neither is necessary. My pessimist side wonders whether that would just open a can of worms where Clinton is sued for the NC firebombing, and has to spend time and energy on that instead of stuff that could actually help the nation.

Wallace:

"We have had to fight back for a lot of years against claims that we’re an arm of the Republican Party. We aren’t."

Now you know how NBC feels, ya douchenozzle.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:08 (eight years ago)

would love to see some examples of my paranoia quoted?

brb gonna scroll through 9,000 posts on 10 different threads

youtube link would not stand up as incitement in court

xp

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:08 (eight years ago)

2008 was a model year when it came to concession speeches. McCain probably wanted to get home and go to bed.

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:09 (eight years ago)

We have had to fight back for a lot of years against claims that we’re an arm of the Republican Party. We aren’t."

a lawyerly response. Conservatives see themselves as conservatives first, not Republicans.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:09 (eight years ago)

(please note that the stein in question from that quote upthread is NOT jill stein but patrick stein, the kansan 'crusader' terrorist who was plotting to kill a bunch of somali immigrants the day after the election)

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:09 (eight years ago)

I hope Sarah Palin again insists on delivering a concession speech in November.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:10 (eight years ago)

Can she rap it again? Please?

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:11 (eight years ago)

do we need to wait with bated breath for Oregon, Washington, and California's returns?

We need to find out California elects another Democratic senator oh wait.

(Slew of interesting state and city propositions I am definitely waiting on here, but that's obviously just of interest to us. Sent my ballot in Monday.)

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:12 (eight years ago)

Washington is an all vote-by-mail state, and I think Oregon is too, results aren't certified for days and the "late liberal" effect means many races shift precipitously between the first drop of results on Tuesday night and the days that follow.

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:15 (eight years ago)

In '08 and '12 the election was called for Obama immediately upon polls closing in California and I see no reason that wouldn't be the case this year.

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:16 (eight years ago)

We'd need something like this to call the election before California polls close:

http://www.270towin.com

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:18 (eight years ago)

ah fuck, my permalink!

http://www.270towin.com/maps/mNrNj

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:18 (eight years ago)

Betty Ford delivered Jerry's concession speech for him, maybe they could get Melania to deliver Trump's

http://www.history.com/speeches/betty-delivers-president-fords-concession

soref, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:18 (eight years ago)

the election ended at 10 p.m. EST once Ohio's results are announced. This year I see Ohio going red and Trump losing the election – the first Republican to whom this has ever happened.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:19 (eight years ago)

xp particularly if she can work in the fact that she's divorcing him

soref, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:19 (eight years ago)

ehh the whole "called" thing is kind of bullshit because even on the years when it's pretty certain, some networks do their final presidential prediction and then still change their state predictions after the fact, on air

2000 was the worst offender in this, obviously, but 2004 was such a clusterfuck that I went to bed not know the results

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:20 (eight years ago)

xxxpost It'd be like the neighborhood bully's mom showing up to apologize for her son's behavior.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:20 (eight years ago)

Watching these fuckstains anchor themselves to a sinking ship will never not be funny:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/gop-congressman-nasty-woman/index.html

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:20 (eight years ago)

yeah i mean for those of us who weren't that hip in high school or from podunk areas, "alternative" was could contain everything, dave matthews band, cypress hill, butthole surfers, pj harvey, blues traveller, mike watt with eddie vedder singing for him, bad religion, my life with thrill kill kult, paula cole, alice in chains

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:20 (eight years ago)

Can she rap it again? Please?

Other MCs betta move out the way
The P-A-L-I-N is here to stay
Check out my badness, I'm straight outta Wasilla
Hillary's a beeyotch and Obamacare's a killa
We may be concedin' but tomorrow you'll be needin'
First aid on yo asses cuz it's a battle of the classes
It's all about taxation, they're impov'rishin the nation
Takin all the guns and excessive regulation
Illegals, they be stealin and they're dealin and they're killin
I'f I'd been the veep, I'd be drillin' like a villain
Wearin chunky glasses I'd be mad snowmobilin'

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:22 (eight years ago)

um u missed an opportunity to get drillin' in there

his eye is on despair-o (Jon not Jon), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:24 (eight years ago)

real talk: the paula cole / alice in chains connection is drastically underreported

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:25 (eight years ago)

oh wait nm

his eye is on despair-o (Jon not Jon), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:25 (eight years ago)

or the Paula Cole-Peter Gabriel connection!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:26 (eight years ago)

jill stein is such a dipshit

― blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, October 21, 2016 12:06 PM (nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it was not actually jill stein who said that thing quoted above

esempiu (crüt), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:26 (eight years ago)

election-fixin'
race-mixin'
trade deal missin'
keep on bitchin'
'bout sexism

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:26 (eight years ago)

jill stein is such a dipshit
― blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, October 21, 2016 12:06 PM (nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it was not actually jill stein who said that thing quoted above

― esempiu (crüt), Friday, October 21, 2016 11:26 AM (nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yes that wasn't clarified when i posted & i dunno why i was supposed to assume it was some dude from kansas i've never heard of!

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:36 (eight years ago)

would love to see some examples of my paranoia quoted?

brb gonna scroll through 9,000 posts on 10 different threads

youtube link would not stand up as incitement in court

xp

― Οὖτις, Friday, October 21, 2016 12:08 PM (twenty-seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

shakey is otm

forks, love you bud but take a nap or an ativan or something

k3vin k., Friday, 21 October 2016 16:37 (eight years ago)

matt, you missed the ruckus upthread; sorry to leave caltrops for you to reasonably trip on

xp i think i may have found out about paula cole via peter gabriel tbh... am i making that up?
https://vimeo.com/89802801

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:37 (eight years ago)

kev, for the third time, i very much would like to be wrong! also, no ativan but i am _still_ waiting for my medical marijuana card. Thanks Obama

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:38 (eight years ago)

We'd need something like this to call the election before California polls close:

http://www.270towin.com

― slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, October 21, 2016 12:18 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ah fuck, my permalink!

http://www.270towin.com/maps/mNrNj

― slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, October 21, 2016 12:18 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

How are the polls in Hawaii going to close before the polls in California?

¶ (DJP), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:39 (eight years ago)

forks no worries this thread is moving really fast rn

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:41 (eight years ago)

Hawaii is part of Kenya, why would they be voting in a US election

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:41 (eight years ago)

New HRC ad

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCqFCCgU1xk

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:42 (eight years ago)

um as seen in this picture hawaii is obviously a little south and west of texas

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:43 (eight years ago)

Every time I click on this thread I get a "the aristocrats!" subliminal message in the millisecond before it jumps to the bottom of the page.

jmm, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:44 (eight years ago)

Folks you should really check that ad out.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:45 (eight years ago)

that ad is devastating

¶ (DJP), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:45 (eight years ago)

seriously

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:48 (eight years ago)

jeez that ad

btw, since this was probably half the reason they went w/Kaine looks like he's done his job

Hillary Clinton and her Republican opponent are in a statistical dead heat in Georgia, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, and she has a double-digit lead in battleground Virginia, according to Christopher Newport University.

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:50 (eight years ago)

whoa that ad

marcos, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:51 (eight years ago)

checked that ad out, gross as fuck. she voted to send that kid off to die.

AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:51 (eight years ago)

She really does have so much hate in her heart! Sad!

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:52 (eight years ago)

Adam, as the son of a longtime Navy officer, someone who made the decision to apply for the Academy in 1957 or so as the Cold War and the threat of nuclear devastation was becoming all too real in terms of a mindset, and who applied knowing that no matter who the president was or who voted for what, orders would be given and would have to be obeyed, I will ask you -- do you know anyone who ever served, and what it means when you make that decision to serve?

I'll wait.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:55 (eight years ago)

checked that ad out, gross as fuck. she voted to send that kid off to die.

― AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, October 21, 2016 11:51 AM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

maybe harvard law school graduate khzir khan is using his connection to the campaign to defeat what he views as an existential threat to muslims in america? or is it always puppetmaster HRC fooling these rubes into doing her bidding?

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:56 (eight years ago)

where is the oppo bomb? I want oppo bomb. c'mon.

akm, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:57 (eight years ago)

thank you for that ned!!

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 21 October 2016 16:58 (eight years ago)

Adam, what's gross as fuck is having that response to a man talking about the death of his son. So he doesn't blame who you blame for what happened, well you need to shut your entitled ass up.

Frederik B, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:59 (eight years ago)

Separately -- really, dude?

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/789504509168984064

BREAKING: Donald Trump's lawyer asks judge to exclude his statements made during presidential campaign in trial over Trump University

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:00 (eight years ago)

xpost
aight chill out

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:00 (eight years ago)

Ned you don't need to wait, i have several family members that served and currently serve, save your "entitled" platitudes for someone else

AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:01 (eight years ago)

where is the oppo bomb? I want oppo bomb. c'mon.

― akm, Friday, October 21, 2016 12:57 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yes please

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:02 (eight years ago)

Ned, sorry that entitled comment was meant for Fred

AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:02 (eight years ago)

this whole discussion of violence at the polls feels like it's focused just slightly to one side of the problem. i'm not entirely expecting camo-wearing, open-carrying, testosterone-saturated nuts to kill people at the polls (or start shit with the cops and get themselves killed) - - - i'm expecting them to be camo-wearing, open-carrying, testosteorne-saturated nuts. that by itself is a really serious problem! these kinds of characters hanging around the polls, making a big show of themselves, getting their picture taken, getting up in people's faces, murmuring insults and pseudo-threats: i can picture all of this happening, easily, in a LOT of places. it's intimidation, it's threatening, it verges quickly into assault. all of that is violent and all of that will be directed at the most vulnerable people there. remember the video of the guy screaming at the bicyclist in socal a while back? it's going to be a whole bunch of that guy only in "camo cosplay," maybe with a gun, shouting in the faces of minority voters, elderly folks with clinton bumper stickers, people perceived as deviants, whatever. we don't need little fantasies of shootouts to be seriously disturbed by what the trump campaign has obviously been encouraging for ages now.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:03 (eight years ago)

jill stein is such a dipshit
― blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, October 21, 2016 12:06 PM (nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it was not actually jill stein who said that thing quoted above

― esempiu (crüt), Friday, October 21, 2016 11:26 AM (nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Second post does not make first post untrue.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:03 (eight years ago)

Adam, as the son of a longtime Navy officer, someone who made the decision to apply for the Academy in 1957 or so as the Cold War and the threat of nuclear devastation was becoming all too real in terms of a mindset, and who applied knowing that no matter who the president was or who voted for what, orders would be given and would have to be obeyed, I will ask you -- do you know anyone who ever served, and what it means when you make that decision to serve?
I'll wait.

― Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 16:55 (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

This is the transcript of Ned's sitemod comeback ad btw

imago, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:04 (eight years ago)

lol yes my opinion stands

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:05 (eight years ago)

Fuck you dude xp

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:05 (eight years ago)

thread is moving too fast, i can't tell who is telling who to go fuck themselves

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:06 (eight years ago)

Lol yeah

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:07 (eight years ago)

while there's definitely some validity to adam's objections, the ad is really effective (and affecting)

k3vin k., Friday, 21 October 2016 17:08 (eight years ago)

Ned you don't need to wait, i have several family members that served and currently serve,

*nods* Then I'll say I'm just a little surprised at your approach here, and will leave it at that.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:08 (eight years ago)

i think as americans it's time for us to come together as a nation and all fuck ourselves

frederik sorry yr not invited to the fuckfest of liberty

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:09 (eight years ago)

i'm expecting them to be camo-wearing, open-carrying, testosteorne-saturated nuts. that by itself is a really serious problem! these kinds of characters hanging around the polls, making a big show of themselves, getting their picture taken, getting up in people's faces, murmuring insults and pseudo-threats: i can picture all of this happening, easily, in a LOT of places. it's intimidation, it's threatening, it verges quickly into assault. all of that is violent and all of that will be directed at the most vulnerable people there. remember the video of the guy screaming at the bicyclist in socal a while back? it's going to be a whole bunch of that guy only in "camo cosplay," maybe with a gun, shouting in the faces of minority voters, elderly folks with clinton bumper stickers, people perceived as deviants, whatever. we don't need little fantasies of shootouts to be seriously disturbed by what the trump campaign has obviously been encouraging for ages now.

I agree w all this

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:10 (eight years ago)

frederik sorry yr not invited to the fuckfest of liberty

where were you during PussyGrab'16

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:10 (eight years ago)

sh@key i respect your opinion but i'm an internationalist and i think that fred has just as much right to go fuck himself as the rest of us do

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:11 (eight years ago)

history will remember me as victim of carne asada's fuck you. rigged. sad.

imago, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:11 (eight years ago)

I think intervening in Iraq was wrong but reducing the troops who went there to "fought in unjust conflict" totems is gross and you can acknowledge it was the wrong thing to do while respecting the family of a soldier who was killed.

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:12 (eight years ago)

everybody go fuck yourself by your bootstraps

gwyneth anger (patron sailor), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:12 (eight years ago)

rowr

¶ (DJP), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:12 (eight years ago)

I'm not very flexible

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:14 (eight years ago)

Sopan Deb ‏@SopanDeb 1h1 hour ago
It's been 86 days since Trump last held a presser. He took Qs from limited group 47 days ago. Clinton has taken Qs 11 times in last 2 months

^^^surprised this doesn't get brought up more often. trump has been hiding from the press for three months

jason waterfalls (gbx), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:15 (eight years ago)

take it to the gay thread, boys

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:15 (eight years ago)

especially since wasn't that one of trump's talking points for awhile, "where's hillary, hiding from the press again i guess!"

nomar, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:16 (eight years ago)

he doesn't hide from the press, he just puts them in a little corral during his appearances that they sometimes have to flee in terror

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:17 (eight years ago)

I posted the Nancy French story above re: her abuse and her anger and disappointment at the charges against Trump being brushed off by the religious right. Her husband David's own piece today is, if anything, even worse to consider:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/441319/donald-trump-alt-right-internet-abuse-never-trump-movement

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:18 (eight years ago)

trump's most serious hangup/instinct is surely accusing whoever opposes him with possessing his own vices. no press conferences, unhealthy, needs to be drug-tested, lies all the time, makes crooked deals, bad judgment, bad temperament. i'm waiting for him to start shouting about how she has the worst toupee he's ever see, i mean, bad. it's so bad and it's so obvious and what is she trying to hide? and that color!

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:19 (eight years ago)

he doesn't hide from the press, he just puts them in a little corral during his appearances that they sometimes have to flee in terror

― mh

that's what he keeps saying, but lately him and his surrogates have been doing a lot more fleeing.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:19 (eight years ago)

How are the polls in Hawaii going to close before the polls in California?

― ¶ (DJP), Friday, October 21, 2016 9:39 AM (thirty-nine minutes ago)

whoops

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:21 (eight years ago)

xp doc, i'm with you all the way but "little fantasies of shootouts" suggests the idea that the idea of ideologically-motivated armed men shooting multiple innocents on american soil is some far fetched fan fiction when it's literally a daily occurrence. more intelligent restrictions on gun purchases and ownership is absolutely the largest part of the problem there but denying some of the blame to an explicitly violent racist/sexist/classist figurehead who is irresponsibly whipping people into a frenzy seems willfully blind to me and i'm a bit surprised that i'm getting the "lie down, you crazy" treatment. He's taking himself seriously and his followers are taking themselves seriously; I'm taking them seriously too.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:22 (eight years ago)

How are the polls in Hawaii going to close before the polls in California?

― ¶ (DJP), Friday, October 21, 2016 9:39 AM (thirty-nine minutes ago)

whoops

― slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), F

See? They're rigged. RIGGED.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:23 (eight years ago)

those are all fair points... ugh i dunno. it's a really really ugly situation.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

it is not a daily occurrence

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

we're not even close to late 60s levels of violence

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:25 (eight years ago)

(in terms of politically-motivated shootings/murders)

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:25 (eight years ago)

how many mass shootings do you think have occurred this year shakey?
i think you're confusing my points a bit.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:26 (eight years ago)

BREAKING: Donald Trump's lawyer asks judge to exclude his statements made during presidential campaign in trial over Trump University

lol I used to work for this dickhead and my poor old supervisor is working on this case right now

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:26 (eight years ago)

xp though i don't have as sense of how slanted the reporting is, this site lists over 300 for the year
http://www.gunviolencearchive.org/

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:27 (eight years ago)

Rubbish report, they counted cap and finger gun deaths

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:31 (eight years ago)

trump's most serious hangup/instinct is surely accusing whoever opposes him with possessing his own vices. no press conferences, unhealthy, needs to be drug-tested, lies all the time, makes crooked deals, bad judgment, bad temperament. i'm waiting for him to start shouting about how she has the worst toupee he's ever see, i mean, bad. it's so bad and it's so obvious and what is she trying to hide? and that color!

― DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Friday, October 21, 2016 12:19 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

She makes all this money, so much money from her speeches. But where is this money? You'd think she'd be a millionaire by now but I've heard, I don't know if I believe it but I've heard that her savings account, get this, I hear it's only five figures. Low five figures. So sad. And her penis! Have you seen her penis? Neither have I. Because it's a micropenis, folks. So tiny. So tiny. Pee just runs down her leg while she's standing in front of her gold toilet, believe me.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:31 (eight years ago)

Republicans are all about limiting your right to fuck yourself, but they have no problem doing the fucking. When Clinton arrives, we can all confidently resume fucking ourselves once again with no fear of repercussion. Either way, we're probably all fucked already.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:43 (eight years ago)

this guy fucks

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

that is the weirdest part, Trump does not act at all like a guy who fucks

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:50 (eight years ago)

I wonder if he really walks around knowing that the wrong brother died.

I mean, his siblings include a couple who did well in banking, a well-regarded federal judge, and an older brother who was reportedly very likeable and probably better looking. Meanwhile Donald's big triumph is putting his name on things in really big letters while people around him apologize for it.

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:53 (eight years ago)

Xpost A titotaler

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:54 (eight years ago)

ideologically-motivated armed men shooting multiple innocents on american soil is some far fetched fan fiction when it's literally a daily occurrence

this is literally not accurate, sorry.

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:55 (eight years ago)

the "ideologically motivated" part is key there

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:56 (eight years ago)

because we are discussing political action here (even to the point of holding political figures liable) - complicated as it may be, the political/ideological has to be separated from the far common/more standard emotionally + psychologically disturbed or criminally motivated violence for your point to have any weight in terms of blaming Trump.

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 17:58 (eight years ago)

seriously the Clinton social media interns don't get paid enough

https://i.imgur.com/VndRHmB.jpg

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Friday, 21 October 2016 17:58 (eight years ago)

if you don't see trump as an emotionally and psychologically disturbed, politically AND criminally motivated figure with many of his followers in lockstep i dunno what to tell you. we're not gonna agree on this apparently.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:05 (eight years ago)

i find it amusing how many people love imitating Trump's style of speaking/cadence. it's fun! also i've seen so many appropriations on MAGA throughout the year - like that place Sweetgreen, they've been handing out stickers that say "Make America Healthy Again" for months. Trump is basically a Dr. Seuss villain, so many of his mannerisms & catchphrases are infectious whether or not you like him.

flappy bird, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:07 (eight years ago)

if you don't see trump as an emotionally and psychologically disturbed, politically AND criminally motivated figure with many of his followers in lockstep i dunno what to tell you. we're not gonna agree on this apparently.

Trump is all those things! But the constant drumbeat of gun violence in this country is separable from Trump, it is simply not accurate to say that every mass shooting incident is politically or ideologically motivated. That just isn't true.

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:09 (eight years ago)

http://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting

most of these look like gang-related activity tbh

k3vin k., Friday, 21 October 2016 18:10 (eight years ago)

I think Shakey's argument is that we don't have ideologically-motivated shootings as a daily occurrence, which, while true, isn't particularly comforting to the people getting shot.

¶ (DJP), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:10 (eight years ago)

drawing a causal link - much less a legally prosecutable link - is incredibly difficult. I don't think there's a single mass shooting incident to-date that you could tie to Trump.

xp

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:10 (eight years ago)

xp. shakey has no time for them!

*-* (jim in vancouver), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:11 (eight years ago)

Upper Miss Shakedown

btw, since this was probably half the reason they went w/Kaine looks like he's done his job... Hillary Clinton and her Republican opponent are in a statistical dead heat in Georgia, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, and she has a double-digit lead in battleground Virginia

Virginia was already safely blue, though (NoVa = government workers = suckers at the Federal teat = libdems). Maybe they didn't know that yet in June.

There is an alternative universe in which the Clinton campaign chooses a running mate from Georgia, but I'm blanking on who. Jimmy Carter is ineligible. Michael Stipe? Lawrence Fishburne?

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:13 (eight years ago)

is jimmy really ineligible? he only served one term.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:15 (eight years ago)

Jeff Mangum

flappy bird, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:16 (eight years ago)

Luke Cage

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:16 (eight years ago)

Kandi Burruss

¶ (DJP), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:17 (eight years ago)

Fred Schneider

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:17 (eight years ago)

I think Shakey's argument is that we don't have ideologically-motivated shootings as a daily occurrence, which, while true, isn't particularly comforting to the people getting shot.

right. fwiw I would think my feelings on gun violence and the 2nd Amendment are p well established around here.

xp

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:17 (eight years ago)

xpost Unless all of the B-52s could run as a collective veep candidate.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:17 (eight years ago)

seriously the Clinton social media interns don't get paid enough

https://i.imgur.com/VndRHmB.jpg

niiiice

frogbs, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:21 (eight years ago)

Thought it was pretty clear that we were specifically discussing TRUMP INCITING VIOLENCE which, to-date has not been a thing in terms of people getting shot. People have been assaulted at his rallies, and that is terrible and Trump is a horrible person and p much a fascist for both promoting it and taking advantage of it, but people are not taking up arms at Trump's direction and shooting their political opponents. That is not happening. And what's more, to be even more specific to the original point, it is not going to happen at polling places on election day. The Kansas City thing is the lone instance of that even coming close, and those guys were caught and the plot was disrupted - precisely because everyone is on edge about this possibility, esp the authorities/law enforcement.

xp

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:22 (eight years ago)

still, fingers crossed!

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:23 (eight years ago)

I do feel it's relevant to bear in mind that we have had many periods in this country where political figures actually *did* incite their followers to commit violence and it *did* happen, on the biggest scale imaginable (ie war) so let's maintain some perspective here.

but yes fingers crossed we are not at a point similar to 1856 or 1886 or 1968. It doesn't seem even close to me.

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:24 (eight years ago)

If there's any violence at the polls next month, it will be performed by democrats wearing "I AM A REPUBLICAN AND I HATE LIBERALS" shirts, and you can be sure that James O'Keefe will be there to capture it all for his next film.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:25 (eight years ago)

It's important to keep in mind that a large number of Trump's supporters are probably Twitter tough guys. It's real easy to talk shit with your fingers, but most people are probably disinclined to back up their anonymous shit talk with action. And I'll mash any one of you who disagrees, see?

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:27 (eight years ago)

lol

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:28 (eight years ago)

how fast could trump ko this chickenshit hillbilly?

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:34 (eight years ago)

we have the best pavement!

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:38 (eight years ago)

shakey you've got a lot of what i consider to be ungrounded absolutist faith at play here. i have no idea why you consider the KC thing to be a once-and-only thing; may i ask if you were even aware of it prior to it being discussed here? why would you assume faith in the powers that be just now? why would you consider doubting the intentions of a demagogue who is being frank in his hatred and suggestions of how that hatred should be directed? why is suggesting that these are dangerous times equivalent to inciting fear and why is blaming the lead instigator of this violent energy inappropriate?

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:39 (eight years ago)

i am arguing on the internet and i can't remember anytime that's ever been a good idea so i'm gonna stop i think.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:39 (eight years ago)

I'm more concerned about violence by lone disturbed individuals in the aftermath, rather than at polling places. They're immersed in an echo chamber that tells them democracy has been corrupted, their rights have been infringed, and the elected aren't facing justice for crimes that deserve jail. Not a few are unstable, have little to lose, and would like their lives to have historical significance.

publicity hungry, opportunistic, disgruntled former employee (Sanpaku), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:40 (eight years ago)

lone disturbed individuals

https://i.redditmedia.com/pg1-EOIxIGiv0JxS-WdrLByxIirRf08cpXppfJWkHA8.jpg?w=320&s=844925b2278d76128cb4365edd0e2d8b

how's life, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:42 (eight years ago)

I'm more concerned about violence by lone disturbed individuals

welcome to America!

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:42 (eight years ago)

doing revolution stuff

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:44 (eight years ago)

It seems to me the actual legacy of this campaign is a greater likelihood of someone shooting their neighbor in the face over some otherwise minor dispute because they've now been cast as an enemy to America rather than any type of organized/coordinated/even off-the-cuff attack on polling places on election day.

¶ (DJP), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:44 (eight years ago)

"if an insane person with an assault rifle and german shephard pulled up to you in a white van would you get in?"

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:44 (eight years ago)

haha omg how's life

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:45 (eight years ago)

itt replace "revolution" with "butt"

¶ (DJP), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:45 (eight years ago)

Terry Tate comes out of retirement

http://youtu.be/djdzZ76YIQM?t=48s

publicity hungry, opportunistic, disgruntled former employee (Sanpaku), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:46 (eight years ago)

i have no idea why you consider the KC thing to be a once-and-only thing

because so far it is the only thing!

why would you consider doubting the intentions of a demagogue who is being frank in his hatred and suggestions of how that hatred should be directed?

he has not been frank at all! Like most narcissistic demagogues he's been careful to frame his hatred and suggestions not as categorical "YOU! MY FOLLOWERS! KILL THE UNBELIEVERS!" statements, but in much slipperier and vague terms. I don't think he actually wants armed insurrection - why? because it wouldn't actually benefit him. He knows this. He's just a jerk and an egomaniac who doesn't care about the collateral damage his language may cause.

why is suggesting that these are dangerous times equivalent to inciting fear and why is blaming the lead instigator of this violent energy inappropriate?

blame him all you want, once something that's related to him actually happens! Don't expect it to hold up in court though.

xxp

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:47 (eight years ago)

Amazing
xp

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:47 (eight years ago)

It seems to me the actual legacy of this campaign is a greater likelihood of someone shooting their neighbor in the face over some otherwise minor dispute because they've now been cast as an enemy to America rather than any type of organized/coordinated/even off-the-cuff attack on polling places on election day.

^^^^

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:47 (eight years ago)

About that van thing: for me, it would depend on whether the guy was saying it or the dog.

If a dog said that to me I would seriously consider getting in.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:48 (eight years ago)

I'm more worried about after the results of the election are declared.

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:49 (eight years ago)

Whether or not they're inclined toward violent actions, it does seem to me like most steadfast Trumpites probably don't possess the keenest sense of organization or strategy. Planning is for beta cucks, I would assume.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:50 (eight years ago)

he has not been frank at all!

except to the rapist mexicans and the terrorist muslims and the blacks? Stopping! I'm Stopping!

djp: and that's true too! if i'm coming off as "JUST YOU WATCH THEY'RE GONNA SHOOT UP THE POLLS" here, that's not so much my intention. But when i call home to my family in tennessee, they tell me they're doing early voting because they don't want to be out on election night... too many drunk angry rednecks likely to be knocking around looking to vent some USA USA USA USA

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:50 (eight years ago)

If a guy in a white van with a gun and a dog showed up and said get in, we're doing Prince and the Revolution stuff, would you get in?

Maybe.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:50 (eight years ago)

especially if the dog said it like, "re're roing revorution ruff"

xxp

Montgomery Burns' Jazz (Tarfumes The Escape Goat), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:50 (eight years ago)

Rurple Rain, Rurple Rain ...

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:51 (eight years ago)

I was going to say, it looks like "solving mysteries" is way behind them

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:52 (eight years ago)

they're the Earth-2 mystery machine gang who hides the bodies

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:53 (eight years ago)

“Everybody knows when you go for the grope, Terry gonna say nope! That ain’t new, son!!”

El Tomboto, Friday, 21 October 2016 18:56 (eight years ago)

never got it off with that revolution stuff

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:57 (eight years ago)

depends on amount of candy.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Friday, 21 October 2016 18:58 (eight years ago)

"just fix the fucking server like we asked you to, jimmy"

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:03 (eight years ago)

aren't the Revolution touring? I'm not interested.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:11 (eight years ago)

seriously he starts talking about overthrowing the government every time we tell him he can't vape in the server room

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:14 (eight years ago)

Grover?

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 19:19 (eight years ago)

when will the real issue of this election be addressed?

#vape

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 19:21 (eight years ago)

grover is such a dipshit but the new vape-obsessed post-burning man norquist is way way more preferable imo

marcos, Friday, 21 October 2016 19:22 (eight years ago)

I expect a Vape Party to have formed by the 2024 election at the latest.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

its kinda hysterical tbh xp

i've watched a lot of cats do weird and interesting things (slothroprhymes), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

When will one of the candidates address all of the Tamagotchis that keep dying?

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:26 (eight years ago)

Your Tamagotchi's life was short like leprechauns
As I crush so-called Willys, Seans and rapist Dons

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 19:28 (eight years ago)

it would be pretty funny to be at a rave and have a friend point toward a group of olds at the front and mouth "grover norquist".

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:31 (eight years ago)

feel bad for david french and his family, but it would have been worth acknowledging that this sort of thing happens to people who are not anti-trump conservatives as well

mookieproof, Friday, 21 October 2016 19:31 (eight years ago)

and David French's other NRO posts are the inchoate ramblings of a poisoned mind.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:35 (eight years ago)

Yeah French is a classic example of somebody caught up in his own unfortunate approach who has now been utterly caught off-guard. You can see it in a lot of movement conservative types this year -- what would have normally been a standard 'let's trash Hillary and stupid Dems' election year of activity has turned into a two-front war, and the really horrible people after them are supporting their side's general candidate.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 19:38 (eight years ago)

man, I can't believe Grover is 60 years old. he has the enlightened perspective of a libertarian-type who is much younger.

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 19:43 (eight years ago)

i just walked by the tv in the lobby at work and it was on CNN and Biden was on there and the chyron said “Biden: I’d like to take Trump out behind the gym”

akm, Friday, 21 October 2016 19:49 (eight years ago)

His twitter av looks like he's 17 xps

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

Yeah French is a classic example of somebody caught up in his own unfortunate approach who has now been utterly caught off-guard. You can see it in a lot of movement conservative types this year -- what would have normally been a standard 'let's trash Hillary and stupid Dems' election year of activity has turned into a two-front war, and the really horrible people after them are supporting their side's general candidate.

― Ned Raggett, Friday, October 21, 2016 2:38 PM (ten minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this was probably...jeez...four threads ago but some ilxor posted something to the effect that all these idiots are waking up this year and realizing none of their constituents gave a fuck about limited government or supply side economics or conservative values and really just responded to the white bitterness and dog whistles, like the publisher of penthouse who thought people read it for the articles all these years.

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:51 (eight years ago)

It's hard to believe that the people peddling the limited government line actually, sincerely believed their constituents really cared about it. "Know what you guys would really like? Having less rights, benefits, and say in your own society." That's what the dog whistles were for. These people just lost control.

larry appleton, Friday, 21 October 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

if there's no more Trump oppo dumps coming I would settle for a leak of Ryan or McConnell bitching about Trump in a private meeting or something

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 19:56 (eight years ago)

An example of David's kind of French kissing: www.nationalreview.com/article/441181/hillary-clinton-american-constitution-checks-balances

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:57 (eight years ago)

i fully expect rick wilson to keep teasing his big oppo dump a year from now

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 19:57 (eight years ago)

some ilxor posted something to the effect that all these idiots are waking up this year and realizing none of their constituents gave a fuck about limited government or supply side economics or conservative values and really just responded to the white bitterness and dog whistles

Pretty much. There's been some honest shock and surprise -- which I admit I find pretty laughable -- but also a lot of grumbling 'well, figures,' which makes more sense.

I shared this amusement with Alfred earlier today. Pity the author, won't you?

http://freebeacon.com/columns/crisis-conservative-intellectual/

Actually, don't pity this fucker at all:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgFfdbhtEzA

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 19:58 (eight years ago)

like the publisher of penthouse who thought people read it for the articles all these years.

thankfully Bob had no such illusions and helped bring us Omni magazine. thanks, Bob

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

grover is such a dipshit but the new vape-obsessed post-burning man norquist is way way more preferable imo

― marcos, Friday, October 21, 2016 12:22 PM (twenty-four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yess otm!

brimstead, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

The whole "limited government" mantra was penned by business interests who wanted to fill the power vacuum left when people lose faith in their own institutions. And it's worked quite well. These constituents don't sound too happy about all the corruption happening around them, but they don't seem to know where to point the finger. Unfortunately they keep going to the Muslims, and minorities, and gays, and not the people who stabbed them in the back.

Which I can only blame on our education system which doesn't teach people how anything works in this country, and our culture that says community and public service is for lame ass dorks.

larry appleton, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:02 (eight years ago)

Not only that but our recently-invented culture of the individual, which also helps people disengage from things. I have to hand it to these people, they did a damn fine job over the past few decades.

larry appleton, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:03 (eight years ago)

oh man, Omni was a great magazine

akm, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:03 (eight years ago)

Omni >>>>> Wired

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:03 (eight years ago)

lol a friend saw that dude in the van with the dog and pointed out the name below the caption

wondering if an ilxor needs to explain some things to us

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:04 (eight years ago)

early Wired was ok but in retrospect a lot of the ideas were embryonic Silicon Valley attitudes

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:05 (eight years ago)

The whole "limited government" mantra was penned by business interests who wanted to fill the power vacuum left when people lose faith in their own institutions.

otm. it also translated directly into low, low tax rates, deregulation and higher profits.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Friday, 21 October 2016 20:10 (eight years ago)

disappointed to see that the omni archive is gone from itnernet archive; they did 'relaunch' as a new site though, but I want to see airbrushed pictures of robots

akm, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:11 (eight years ago)

Don't forget Spin.

dan selzer, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:15 (eight years ago)

Meadows now claiming that challenge to Ryan's speakership is "gathering steam"

fun times in the GOP House Caucus!

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:29 (eight years ago)

boy they really want to identify every problem but the actual obvious one that's been staring at them with beady little eyes for a year

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:32 (eight years ago)

oppo dump isn't coming is it

marcos, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:33 (eight years ago)

A Bloomberg poll conducted Oct. 14-17 showed that 51 percent of Republicans think the Trump’s view of what the GOP stands for better matches theirs, compared to 33 percent who said Ryan’s perspective more closely matched theirs.

lol

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:33 (eight years ago)

Trump's view? on which day of the week?

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:34 (eight years ago)

less LOL = this means Trump-isms can survive long after Trump shuffles off

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:34 (eight years ago)

that... isn't actually funny

A significant percentage of the GOP (more than half if you take this poll at face-value) feels comfortable aligning themselves with the blatant vanguard of white supremacy; excuse me if I don't chuckle at that

¶ (DJP), Friday, 21 October 2016 20:35 (eight years ago)

imo the classic "got mine, fuck you" fantasy is appealing to some people and they think Trump will somehow help with the former, as he excels at the latter

mh 😏, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:36 (eight years ago)

i was LOLing mostly at the idiocy of Republicans thinking that the problem the party is currently facing isn't due to the disastrous shitbag of a candidate they unleashed, but "Paul Ryan's lack of leadership".

I agree though that it isn't actually funny at all.

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:38 (eight years ago)

oppo dump isn't coming is it

Today would have been a bad day for it.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:39 (eight years ago)

Meantime, Byron York calls Nancy and David French big babies, pretty much. Movement conservativism IS falling apart.

https://twitter.com/ByronYork/status/789550057628508160

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:41 (eight years ago)

“Suppose she wins Pennsylvania by 50 votes,” Giuliani said. He speculated, without evidence, that Democrats would “steal a lot more than 50 votes in Philadelphia. I guarantee you of that. And I’ll tell you how they will do it — they’ll bus people in who will vote dead people’s names four, five, six times . . . or have people in Philadelphia paid to vote three, four and five times.”

Mordy are you in on this, sounds like a good gig

(latest Rucker/Costa)

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 21 October 2016 20:43 (eight years ago)

ums: that was here

Il Douché and His Discontents: The 2016 Primary Voting Thread, Part 4

Closest analogy I can think of (not that it's a perfect analogy) is if the management of Playboy were making an appeal along the lines of "OUR LOYAL READERS SUBSCRIBE FOR THE ARTICLES!" while the subscriber base is all like, "where the titties at?"

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 21 October 2016 20:44 (eight years ago)

so many threads

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 21 October 2016 20:45 (eight years ago)

Meantime, Byron York calls Nancy and David French big babies, pretty much. Movement conservativism IS falling apart.

https://twitter.com/ByronYork/status/789550057628508160

― Ned Raggett, Friday, October 21, 2016

Take pity: he's always worn long hair!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 20:46 (eight years ago)

this is my first experience with Byron York. he seems p dumb

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:47 (eight years ago)

good name for a country club preppy villain in an 80s movie there byron

harold melvin and the bluetones (jim in vancouver), Friday, 21 October 2016 20:48 (eight years ago)

On Sunday TV appearances Byron York has the air of a Michael Chabon character from the mid '80s, likes Dubonnet and sodomy.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 21 October 2016 20:48 (eight years ago)

in a way I kinda feel forks upthread. I don't think mass shootings will happen at polls, but anytime you irresponsibly stoke fires amongst your base, suggest improprieties that aren't there, ask a bunch of "delusions of grandeur" paranoid, armed conservatives to "be vigilant" at the polls, even if it's not widespread, it increases the chances of someone acting out.

nobody even needs to die for the damage to be done. there was a sticker someone I know shared recently of a pic of a Trump stick figure kicking a rainbow LGBT stick figure in the chest. people that think that way are feeling validated and no needing to hide what they feel about minorities, gays, lesbians, Muslims, whomever they don't like. Add that to how strapped the GOP population is and that's enough to provide a significant amount of intimidation.

That's what has nauseated me in recent weeks.

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:52 (eight years ago)

Yeah French is a classic example of somebody caught up in his own unfortunate approach who has now been utterly caught off-guard. You can see it in a lot of movement conservative types this year -- what would have normally been a standard 'let's trash Hillary and stupid Dems' election year of activity has turned into a two-front war, and the really horrible people after them are supporting their side's general candidate.

― Ned Raggett, Friday, October 21, 2016 2:38 PM (ten minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this was probably...jeez...four threads ago but some ilxor posted something to the effect that all these idiots are waking up this year and realizing none of their constituents gave a fuck about limited government or supply side economics or conservative values and really just responded to the white bitterness and dog whistles, like the publisher of penthouse who thought people read it for the articles all these years.

― blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, October 21, 2016 3:51 PM (twenty-four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

They knew this... the whole game is to get people to vote against their self interests without realizing it, isn't it? Not surprising they'd jump ship to rally around something much juicier and less abstract.

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:55 (eight years ago)

oppo dump isn't coming is it

Today would have been a bad day for it.

― Ned Raggett, Friday, October 21, 2016 4:39 PM (fifteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Let me know when it's crowning

Evan, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:56 (eight years ago)

p much anybody who says "Clinton is worse than Trump so I don't care if he gets elected" is at best punchable at this point

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 20:56 (eight years ago)

soooooooooo apparently curt schilling just m/l said "you're jewish and that makes u you vote democrat, but why?" to jake tapper on live tv; i'm not sure the full context

i've watched a lot of cats do weird and interesting things (slothroprhymes), Friday, 21 October 2016 20:57 (eight years ago)

i also really don't want to know it

i've watched a lot of cats do weird and interesting things (slothroprhymes), Friday, 21 October 2016 20:58 (eight years ago)

it's cute that Curt thinks anything besides being an ex-pitcher is the reason his political tweets are read by anybody beyond people with handles like @NEWWORLDORDER1999APOCALYPSE

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 21:01 (eight years ago)

like that Ja Rule bit from Chappelle's comedy set

Neanderthal, Friday, 21 October 2016 21:02 (eight years ago)

there was a sticker someone I know shared recently of a pic of a Trump stick figure kicking a rainbow LGBT stick figure in the chest.

A Confederate Battle Flag stick figure kicking a rainbow stick figure. Likely combined with a Trump sticker post hoc:

http://www.snopes.com/2016/10/16/donald-trump-auto-decal-riles-social-media/

Someone subsequently 'shopped it so it looks like they're humping as shown here:

https://twitter.com/ewan2395/status/789197688210239489

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 21 October 2016 21:06 (eight years ago)

on that tapper and another recent appearance on tv schilling comes off like he's drunk

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 21:21 (eight years ago)

just wanna take a moment here to voice my love for Omni, confused nerdy kids of the 80's unite

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 21:35 (eight years ago)

btw "omni media" bodied the issues offline from archive.org which is a bummer.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 21:37 (eight years ago)

Omni published this story, which fucked my shit up beyond belief at 10 or 11 and still haunts me, so for that: CLASSIC

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Girl_Who_Loved_Animals

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Friday, 21 October 2016 21:40 (eight years ago)

this is the one that did that for me
http://williamflew.com/omni13d.html

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 21:42 (eight years ago)

William Tevis' "Rent Control" btw.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 21:43 (eight years ago)

wow that Girl Who Loved Animals story looks heavy, serious James D Tiptree vibes there

sleeve, Friday, 21 October 2016 21:43 (eight years ago)

ulysses: I read a few random lines of that, I don't know if I'm strong enough for it right now.

sleeve: "Animals" reads far better and more heartbreaking than that Wikipedia page. I'll try to find the full story online somewhere.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Friday, 21 October 2016 21:45 (eight years ago)

O'Keefe is threatening a new thing

https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/789567429554954240

But this all kinda feels like Wikileaks deal from earlier in the month.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 21:47 (eight years ago)

the thing about rent control is that the comic book "Sex Criminals" is essentially an uncredited long form version of the same story. always wondered if they acknowledged that or not.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Friday, 21 October 2016 21:59 (eight years ago)

will it be as stupid and ineffective as the last thing

xp

Οὖτις, Friday, 21 October 2016 22:03 (eight years ago)

Accurate

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/789590244115017732

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 22:19 (eight years ago)

Nice story which fits in with a lot of other observations lately -- Trump got so high on his own supply he's sounding burnt out. (Also love the side comments about 'modest' and 'smaller-than-usual' crowds.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/donald-trump-is-in-a-funk-bitter-hoarse-and-pondering-if-i-lose/2016/10/21/d944b518-97a3-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 22:38 (eight years ago)

Meantime, interesting.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/the-clinton-campaign-is-making-a-play-for-utah

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 22:40 (eight years ago)

“Since we can't check to see if you voted in three states, you will. If you want to vote in three states, you will," said Larry Lewis, 67, a former electrician who lives in Hendersonville, N.C., who doesn't know anyone who has committed voter fraud

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 21 October 2016 22:47 (eight years ago)

"Here let me show," he then said, going off to vote in three states. He has not been heard from since.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 22:49 (eight years ago)

that... isn't actually funny

A significant percentage of the GOP (more than half if you take this poll at face-value) feels comfortable aligning themselves with the blatant vanguard of white supremacy; excuse me if I don't chuckle at that

― ¶ (DJP), Friday, October 21, 2016 1:35 PM (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yup this is why i don't get any funnies or schadenfreude out of trump being a monster or watching the GOP "squirm". yalls mileage may vary

brimstead, Friday, 21 October 2016 23:07 (eight years ago)

well the al miller dinner was pretty funny, i guess, in a "am i having a stroke" kind of way

brimstead, Friday, 21 October 2016 23:08 (eight years ago)

Accurate

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/789590244115017732

Not accurate. That gif is pretty consistently funny, but it's important to remember the Raptor is a hero.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-toronto-raptors-mascot-is-down-but-never-out-in-praise-of-a-great-performer/

El Tomboto, Friday, 21 October 2016 23:17 (eight years ago)

A fine corrective!

Meantime this...appears to be serious?

https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/789607424370016256

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 23:28 (eight years ago)

would like to know more about the prices byron york has paid for taking stands

mookieproof, Friday, 21 October 2016 23:31 (eight years ago)

He's since half-way apologized:

https://twitter.com/ByronYork/status/789578769921114116

https://twitter.com/ByronYork/status/789578908756836352

(I am amused at the new profile photo. Oh you're a hip young reporter now, are you?)

Ned Raggett, Friday, 21 October 2016 23:40 (eight years ago)

Paid tha cost to be tha boss

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 21 October 2016 23:41 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqQpIo327Uw

Evan, Saturday, 22 October 2016 00:40 (eight years ago)

re: Clinton in Utah - not gonna happen, I think the campaign just has more money than it can use or put into other races at this point so why not make it rain on some low-grade political operatives and try to run up the overall popular vote a little bit

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Saturday, 22 October 2016 02:56 (eight years ago)

Local government ads are getting pretty nasty. Seeing people I've never even heard of getting butchered on TV

rap is dad (it's a boy!), Saturday, 22 October 2016 03:54 (eight years ago)

utah's going to vote two people ahead of the clinton, again.

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Saturday, 22 October 2016 04:08 (eight years ago)

I am so glad we live in DC and nobody ever spends any money on tv ad buys here

El Tomboto, Saturday, 22 October 2016 04:16 (eight years ago)

man i know i don't spend much time on ilx anymore, but when can we get embedded tweets the way we have embedded youtubes?

Wozniak on Kimye's Baby (jaymc), Saturday, 22 October 2016 04:24 (eight years ago)

Agreed.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Saturday, 22 October 2016 04:51 (eight years ago)

boooooooooooooo

j., Saturday, 22 October 2016 05:03 (eight years ago)

embedded pptx but I'd settle for ppt

tried Blue Apron and we died (Sufjan Grafton), Saturday, 22 October 2016 05:08 (eight years ago)

people could just c+p the actual content of the tweet instead of the url

(some ppl do obv. not those ppl.)

sad, hombres (sic), Saturday, 22 October 2016 05:23 (eight years ago)

Good lord that pic of Giuliani.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/1GApgIhRuyw/hqdefault.jpg

pplains, Saturday, 22 October 2016 06:39 (eight years ago)

For those who want their geopolitics in far more expansive and addicting ways, there's a new Sid Meier's Civilization game out today for PC

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Saturday, 22 October 2016 09:38 (eight years ago)

people could just c+p the actual content of the tweet instead of the url

(some ppl do obv. not those ppl.)

― sad, hombres (sic), Saturday, October 22, 2016 1:23 AM (four hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

otm. this is easy as hell.

how's life, Saturday, 22 October 2016 09:40 (eight years ago)

eh the replies on twitter are half the fun though. plus general frown on "content stealing"

Nhex, Saturday, 22 October 2016 10:04 (eight years ago)

eh the replies on twitter are half the fun though. plus general frown on "content stealing"

― Nhex

man this is why i do not do twitter. i have never heard anybody claim that the replies on youtube are "half the fun".

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Saturday, 22 October 2016 10:57 (eight years ago)

and none of the fatheads

the kids are alt right (darraghmac), Saturday, 22 October 2016 11:18 (eight years ago)

tbf the general quality level of replies on twitter is higher than youtube, which is basically a contest to be the first to use a racial slur

doo-doo diplomacy (bizarro gazzara), Saturday, 22 October 2016 11:24 (eight years ago)

xref: faint praise, damning with

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Saturday, 22 October 2016 12:33 (eight years ago)

when the hell are we going to be able to embed xls files??

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Saturday, 22 October 2016 12:43 (eight years ago)

Hi jaymc!

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Saturday, 22 October 2016 12:47 (eight years ago)

zuckerberg under fire for selectively allowing hate speech:

http://arstechnica.com/business/2016/10/facebook-to-ease-offensive-standards-in-light-of-vietnam-photo-dust-up/

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Saturday, 22 October 2016 13:47 (eight years ago)

I'm reading Live From New York the SNL oral history & a passage really struck me. It was Will Ferrell's last show and they had a big bash after, anyway the author talked about all these New York luminaries being there, Yankee players etc, but one was Donald Trump...struck me that he has no idea what's coming now, he's been this figure his whole adult life, always invited, always on the list, now he's getting booed at a charity dinner. If someone from SNL was having the same part today, it would be unthinkable to invite him.

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Saturday, 22 October 2016 14:12 (eight years ago)

SNL would totally invite him, he's famous.

Οὖτις, Saturday, 22 October 2016 14:36 (eight years ago)

"Your next stop...the Palin Zone!"

wishy washy hippy variety hour (Hunt3r), Saturday, 22 October 2016 14:37 (eight years ago)

Yeah, Lorne Michaels would not hesitate to invite any asshole to anything.

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Saturday, 22 October 2016 14:42 (eight years ago)

does it feel like trump has hit his bottom in support? it kind of does looking at the polls. I dont' see much indication of a drift either way.

akm, Saturday, 22 October 2016 14:47 (eight years ago)

Yeah, at some point doing the whole Al Smith debacle was the first point I've ever felt just the slightest bit of pathos in what Trump has done. Which is dumb, a racist 'billionaire' not being invited to fancy parties is nothing to lose sleep over. But there's just the slightest bit of ancient tragedy in Trump getting on the stage, shitting on his old celebrity friends for turning his back on him, then getting mercilessly booed a bit later, with no way to respond. It reminds me a bit of a scene in the final episode of O.J. - Made in America, when OJ has returned home and tries to live on as if nothing has happened, and his former friends and neighbors are yelling at him and demonstrating outside his window, and in a way it's good that people stood up to a murderer, but there's also this feeling that they're angry because he exposed the racism in LA, rather than because his abuse of Nicole - throughout which people stayed on his side - ended in a double murder.

Frederik B, Saturday, 22 October 2016 14:50 (eight years ago)

Oh there's def some shakespearean tragedy angle to Trump's story

Οὖτις, Saturday, 22 October 2016 14:52 (eight years ago)

I think part of the reason it's hard to shake the feeling of surprise dread this cycle is because it's been 20 years since a race has been this not-close going into the final stretch. Clinton's electoral map advantage has given me comfort the whole way through, but there's always been a "what if" in the back of my head. Pretty sure now that's just learned nervousness.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Saturday, 22 October 2016 14:55 (eight years ago)

Also, about his support, don't be scared if Trump regains a couple of points in the polls over the next month. Clinton has always gotten her biggest swings when she gets the space to present her own stories, the convention, the debates, and tended to lose in the everyday shiftiness of the campaign, where Trump scandals compete with wikileaks emails and attacks. If I were a betting man, I'd guess she loses a couple of points the next three weeks, and wins by five. I hope I'm wrong though, and it's a landslide.

Frederik B, Saturday, 22 October 2016 14:56 (eight years ago)

Which is dumb, a racist 'billionaire' not being invited to fancy parties is nothing to lose sleep over. But there's just the slightest bit of ancient tragedy in Trump getting on the stage, shitting on his old celebrity friends for turning his back on him, then getting mercilessly booed a bit later, with no way to respond. It reminds me a bit of a scene in the final episode of O.J. - Made in America, when OJ has returned home and tries to live on as if nothing has happened, and his former friends and neighbors are yelling at him and demonstrating outside his window, and in a way it's good that people stood up to a murderer, but there's also this feeling that they're angry because he exposed the racism in LA, rather than because his abuse of Nicole - throughout which people stayed on his side - ended in a double murder.

actually it reminds me of this scene:

https://iheartingrid.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/liaisons5.jpg

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 22 October 2016 15:09 (eight years ago)

does it feel like trump has hit his bottom in support?

http://i68.tinypic.com/2n8dg6o.jpg

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 15:19 (eight years ago)

can't figure out for the life of me how Trump is ahead in the IBD/TIPP tracking poll. this isn't one of those outlier polls like Rasmussen or LA Times/USC, has an A- grade from Silver. on the flipside though, it's a tracking poll, so any flaws in the initial sampling are there for the life of the poll as opposed to repeat randoms.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 15:21 (eight years ago)

eh give him a break he needs some good news

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 22 October 2016 15:24 (eight years ago)

our Lord and Savior is risen, that should be good enough news for him or anybody

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 15:25 (eight years ago)

my absentee ballot showed up and I must have tossed it mistaking it for something else. was hoping to avoid voting w/ other people. last time my precinct was in a very D zone, hoping the same is true now

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 15:25 (eight years ago)

To be clear I have no sympathy for him, I just think on some level he expected eh if this doesn't work out I'll just go back to my old guy except I'll be even more famous.

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Saturday, 22 October 2016 15:52 (eight years ago)

speaking of sympathy, I love reading this bit of Noonans-ense from four years ago:

ll the vibrations are right. A person who is helping him who is not a longtime Romneyite told me, yesterday: “I joined because I was anti Obama—I’m a patriot, I’ll join up But now I am pro-Romney.” Why? “I’ve spent time with him and I care about him and admire him. He’s a genuinely good man.” Looking at the crowds on TV, hearing them chant “Three more days” and “Two more days”—it feels like a lot of Republicans have gone from anti-Obama to pro-Romney.

Something old is roaring back. One of the Romney campaign’s surrogates, who appeared at a rally with him the other night, spoke of the intensity and joy of the crowd “I worked the rope line, people wouldn’t let go of my hand.” It startled him. A former political figure who’s been in Ohio told me this morning something is moving with evangelicals, other church-going Protestants and religious Catholics. He said what’s happening with them is quiet, unreported and spreading: They really want Romney now, they’ll go out and vote, the election has taken on a new importance to them.

There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:02 (eight years ago)

Also, about his support, don't be scared if Trump regains a couple of points in the polls over the next month. Clinton has always gotten her biggest swings when she gets the space to present her own stories, the convention, the debates, and tended to lose in the everyday shiftiness of the campaign, where Trump scandals compete with wikileaks emails and attacks. If I were a betting man, I'd guess she loses a couple of points the next three weeks, and wins by five. I hope I'm wrong though, and it's a landslide.

Let's be clear about a few things here:

* There's no 'next month' -- there's half a month, and we're almost at just two weeks out. The window is closing rapidly no matter what.

* The votes are already happening, and things are being locked in and locked down more and more. Not overwhelmingly yet -- last I heard is the estimation that a third of the voting would be absentee or early, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being higher. A lot of people just want this done and to not have to think about this any more, and a lot of votes were already decided long in advance. This page is key for tracking and considering numbers: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

* Related to my previous point: a lot of the assumptions going around about the results seem to be dreaming of some sort of big tipping point moment that could happen and that it's all going to fall apart and/or have a wing of people just going around in permanent campaign support mode from here on in. That's crazy, though. You know what most people are thinking at this point? They are just TIRED. They are tired of having to think about this b.s., tired of thinking about the campaign, about Trump's latest idiocy, about whatever's been leaked next, etc. etc. They're tired, or they're bored, or both. It's been almost 18 months of this one way or another and at this point most people just want to stop and go "ENOUGH" and think about the holidays. Hell I can't believe we're so lucky as to essentially have a three day weekend just a couple of days after the election, we'll *all* need it.

Now to your 'nature abhors a vacuum' point regarding how no more big joint events/debates (thank god) on the schedule means more 'hmms' toward Clinton -- I'm seeing this elsewhere too, basically breaking down two ways, that either Wikileaks et al actually HAS something, or (alternately) that the ACA rate increases will tip scales back. My thoughts on the first is that they're already too little too late on this -- if they had or wanted to do something actually worthy of a 'hold up here' they should have done it a long while back, and the longer it takes the more things continue to get baked in as I note. The second is more interesting to my mind -- I had been noticing the timing of this some time back -- but the responses to it have been typically partisan from what I can tell, and of course it's not Clinton's own signature program.

That said, could something horribly unexpected happen to shift things? It could. Best not to relax until the day itself and beyond it. But each week closer and each day closer is a good one.

Ned Raggett, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:14 (eight years ago)

(And I say all that not even mentioning the ever-rumored killer oppo dumb referenced by Wilson et al that would take out Trump's chances even more. But all I will guess is this: if real, then maybe it hasn't emerged yet because we mistook the correct time to be before the third debate. Maybe it IS going to emerge in this remaining two weeks instead to fill in said vacuum. Of course, maybe it's just a pipe dream or won't emerge at all, but hey.)

Ned Raggett, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:18 (eight years ago)

xxpz ugh ts dowd v. noonan real reverse sophie's choice there

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:20 (eight years ago)

Finally, referencing back to that Elections Project page, note the main stat there:

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 5,660,617

That's what I mean by already baked in, and that's just the reporting jurisdictions and isn't everything by any means. It *will* grow noticeably.

Ned Raggett, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:21 (eight years ago)

Meanwhile, Trump's Gettysburg Address:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/789864045730037760

Trump on his accusers: "every woman lied when they came forward to hurt my campaign. All these liars will be sued after election is over."

Ned Raggett, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:22 (eight years ago)

can't figure out for the life of me how Trump is ahead in the IBD/TIPP tracking poll. this isn't one of those outlier polls like Rasmussen or LA Times/USC, has an A- grade from Silver. on the flipside though, it's a tracking poll, so any flaws in the initial sampling are there for the life of the poll as opposed to repeat randoms.

Wang had a great little blog on this though

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/10/19/the-virtues-of-the-l-a-times-poll/#more-18243

El Tomboto, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:23 (eight years ago)

That's a different poll

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:27 (eight years ago)

i have 0 doubt that she's going to win Pa. the purple counties are overwhelmingly pro-hillary, her ground game is immense and trump is nowhere to be seen. tho i did notice he's speaking in gettysburg today or something. but like that's the point - adams county has 100,000 ppl living in it. montgomery county, which is must-win for any republican who wants to flip PA, has 800,000 (third most populous county in the state). philadelphia has 1.5 million people in it and went for obama in 2012 by 85%. montgomery county went for him by only 56%. my guess is that it'll be more like 65-70% this year if not way more. trumpism is anathema here - republicans are educated + wealthy and more likely to be #notrumpers than pro-trump. anyway i've been trying to concentrate on other stuff than the election since it seems like a foregone conclusion. my last involvement is making sure my siblings + parents get their absentee ballots in the mail before they fly to israel on the 6th and then vote myself at the senior center on the 8th.

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:27 (eight years ago)

Speaking of Pennsylvania, this is rich:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/pennsylvania-gop-federal-lawsuit-out-of-county-poll-watchers

Ned Raggett, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:29 (eight years ago)

xxpost yeah the LA Times tracking poll has been hilariously ruined by one 19-year old voter due to their weird weighting.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:29 (eight years ago)

re la times - they do a weird thing where they sample based on who ppl say they voted for in 2012 HOWEVER it's well-known that ppl lie about who they vote for (by statistically significant margins) so that they can claim to have voted for the winner. so based on current polling obama "won" 2012 by a number of more % points than he actually did. when they reweight the figures for the polling it comes into line with every other poll: http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-third-presidential-here-s-how-to-tweak-the-usc-la-times-1476910462-htmlstory.html

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:30 (eight years ago)

who are poll-watchers going to call if they see dead people voting

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:31 (eight years ago)

also all the hyper specific demo stuff i haven't seen anyone discuss the IBD/TIPP poll tho? i could imagine similar sampling issues tho.

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:31 (eight years ago)

Ghostbusters!

Xpost

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:39 (eight years ago)

Oh there's def some shakespearean tragedy angle to Trump's story

Definitely a bit of King Lear to him. Divided by Falstaff. Plus Coriolanus. Though he'd no doubt think of himself of Richard III.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:40 (eight years ago)

BTW, did Trump ever sue the Times? When was the last time he sued anyone?

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:42 (eight years ago)

well, he usually sleeps in late on weekends

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:43 (eight years ago)

Trump would think of himself as a hunchbacked amoral antihero?

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:44 (eight years ago)

so do poll watchers think like they're going to be allowed in the booths w/ people or able to provide some kind of secondary checks or something? I mean I realize poll-watching isn't new but usually it's like, ensuring that the entire staff doesn't take a smoke break at the same time, or that they're not giving tests at the door or something.

I mean what are they gonna do, sniff the air and go "he smells like he's not registered!"

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:45 (eight years ago)

there will probably be a surge in amateur Youtube vids day of and days after election purporting irregularities that will be about as plausible as "that was a UFO - it's grainy, but it totally is" photos. might be best to avoid the internet until 2018

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:46 (eight years ago)

“Trump said to watch your precincts. I’m going to go, for sure,” said Steve Webb, a 61-year-old carpenter from Fairfield, Ohio. “I’ll look for . . . well, it’s called racial profiling. Mexicans. Syrians. People who can’t speak American… I’m going to go right up behind them. I’ll do everything legally. I want to see if they are accountable. I’m not going to do anything illegal. I’m going to make them a little bit nervous.”

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/10/15/donald-trump-warnings-conspiracy-rig-election-are-stoking-anger-among-his-followers/LcCY6e0QOcfH8VdeK9UdsM/story.html

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:47 (eight years ago)

p sure harassment is illegal. it's called poll-watching, not poll-stalking

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:47 (eight years ago)

"It's called racial profiling, look it up smarty."

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:48 (eight years ago)

Dems should just bring cases of Natty Ice to the polls, the poll-watchers will forget why they were even there in no time

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:48 (eight years ago)

Caek et al: I referenced Sam's blog because he tackles issues of weighting in tracking polls, and why that can make the data seem wrong, and also why he doesn't try to correct it. It was edifying, man.

El Tomboto, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:49 (eight years ago)

can't wait for the inevitable "the election was forecasted correctly by most poll aggregators, isn't that fishy, perhaps they had something to do with the fix!" pivot

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:52 (eight years ago)

just like my favorite "if Obama was so innocent, he wouldn't be in Snopes all the time" line

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:52 (eight years ago)

Trump would think of himself as a hunchbacked amoral antihero?

Trump is less self aware than RIII, but amoral (not PC!) antihero (telling it like it is, don't care who it upsets!) is probably how he sees himself. Sub. his hideous hair for a hump and we're basically there. "I am determined to prove a villain / And hate the idle pleasures of these days."

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:55 (eight years ago)

Trump would think of himself as a hunchbacked amoral antihero?

... child murderer and, worst of all, loser.

Patti Labelle is in here with her high but mediocre singing voice. (Tom D.), Saturday, 22 October 2016 16:57 (eight years ago)

Dems should just bring cases of Natty Ice to the polls, the poll-watchers will forget why they were even there in no time

oh great, now we're in a hostess fruit pie advertisement

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Saturday, 22 October 2016 17:28 (eight years ago)

seriously though, the boston globe link mordy shared and quoted from is exactly what i am worried about. really awful and alarming.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Saturday, 22 October 2016 17:30 (eight years ago)

finding more comfort in the NYT forecast which has Trump dropping by a percentage point daily, he's down to 7% now.

akm, Saturday, 22 October 2016 17:39 (eight years ago)

Anecdotal evidence from East Tennessee: we're setting records for early voting so far. Normally in a strongly Republican county, that would suggest a surge of enthusiasm for the GOP candidate. But nobody including local Republicans seems to believe that. The popular guess is that a.) Pro-Hillary/anti-Trump voters actually ARE fired up, and more significantly b.) a lot of people just want to be done with it.

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:00 (eight years ago)

go gloria johnson!! :)

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:05 (eight years ago)

Yes! FWIW I see more Gloria signs around than her opponent, but it'll be close either way.

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:07 (eight years ago)

the alternate universe of the right has really taken on a baroque dimension - another Noonan zinger:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/imagine-a-sane-donald-trump-1477004871

What if there had been a Sane Donald Trump?

Oh my God, Sane Trump would have won in a landslide.

Sane Donald Trump, just to start, would look normal and happy, not grim and glowering. He would be able to hear and act on good advice. He would explain his positions with clarity and depth, not with the impatient half-grasping of a notion that marks real Donald Trump’s public persona.

Sane Donald Trump would have looked at a dubious, anxious and therefore standoffish Republican establishment and not insulted them, diminished them, done tweetstorms against them. Instead he would have said, “Come into my tent. It’s a new one, I admit, but it’s yuge and has gold faucets and there’s a place just for you. What do you need? That I be less excitable and dramatic? Done. That I not act, toward women, like a pig? Done, and I accept your critique. That I explain the moral and practical underpinnings of my stand on refugees from terror nations? I’d be happy to. My well-hidden secret is that I love everyone and hear the common rhythm of their beating hearts.”

great Canadian prog-psych debut from 1969 (Sparkle Motion), Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:30 (eight years ago)

i think i just came

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:45 (eight years ago)

So basically if Trump was an entirely different person w zero appeal to the GOP base

Οὖτις, Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:49 (eight years ago)

sane donald is jeb tho

6 god none the richer (m bison), Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

"My well-hidden secret is that I love everyone and hear the common rhythm of their beating hearts.”

i wanna know what cheat code you gotta use to be able to get paid for writing like this

6 god none the richer (m bison), Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:51 (eight years ago)

Yes. That is clearly his well-hidden secret. Tremendously well-hidden. You've never ever seen a secret hidden so well. Just completely out of sight.

Frederik B, Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:52 (eight years ago)

Jeb? Or did you mean... Jeb!

Οὖτις, Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:53 (eight years ago)

Dems should just bring cases of Natty Ice to the polls, the poll-watchers will forget why they were even there in no time

― Neanderthal

yeah i sure don't see any possible downside to getting angry racists drunk. that'll calm them right the hell down.

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

the alternate universe of the right has really taken on a baroque dimension

― great Canadian prog-psych debut from 1969 (Sparkle Motion)

oh for a long time there's been this wehraboo fantasy among trump supporters, like "man if only hitler had listened to his generals".

fat fingered algorithm (rushomancy), Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:56 (eight years ago)

Sometimes I think of everything that's happened in this election....then I think of a Jeb! Guacabowle and dream of what might have been

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:59 (eight years ago)

xxpost I don't...actually...want to do that. I actually don't want them there at all.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 19:59 (eight years ago)

The GOP will really lull itself into thinking that anybody can beat Hillary in 2020, won't they? So nothing happens, and then there's confusion when for some weird reason she manages to beat Paul Ryan and his promise to remove health care from a lot of people and give the rich a lot of money.

Frederik B, Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

Ryan has a v treacherous and uncertain path ahead of him. He may not even be Speaker in 2 years. Also Speakers dont have a great track record of makinv it to the white house.

Οὖτις, Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:03 (eight years ago)

Ryan has a v treacherous and uncertain path ahead of him. He may not even be Speaker in 2 years. Also Speakers dont have a great track record of makinv it to the white house.

― Οὖτις

neither do secretaries of state. that's one of those "era against left-handed batters in the seventh inning in the postseason" statistics.

in the meantime...

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-log-cabin-republicans-230178

“Could Donald Trump be the most pro-LGBT president that this country has ever had? He might well be,” Angelo said.

ever get the feeling that maybe your organization is hurting more than it's helping, greg?

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:07 (eight years ago)

Paul Ryan won't win because his policies are unpopular... It's just, at the moment no one in the GOP are talking politics, only obstruction and madness, so his insanity isn't as visible at the moment. He's never gonna be president now (never gonna be president now)

Frederik B, Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:19 (eight years ago)

who are poll-watchers going to call if they see dead people

Bruce Willis obv

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:20 (eight years ago)

Ryan has a v treacherous and uncertain path ahead of him. He may not even be Speaker in 2 years. Also Speakers dont have a great track record of makinv it to the white house.

― Οὖτις

neither do secretaries of state. that's one of those "era against left-handed batters in the seventh inning in the postseason" statistics.

― mystery local boy (rushomancy), Saturday, October 22, 2016 3:07 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i mean not really. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States_by_other_offices_held

8 cabinet secretaries have been elected president vs. 5 reps who did not later ascend to higher offices (senate, gov, VP).

6 god none the richer (m bison), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:21 (eight years ago)

Hillary was also senator fwiw

Οὖτις, Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:27 (eight years ago)

i dont think its impossible for ryan to have a chance in 2020, but the GOP nationally is still a mess. GOP can't assemble winning coalitions without peeling away voters of color, but trump has revealed that the GOP coalition is not interested in changing.

6 god none the richer (m bison), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:28 (eight years ago)

xp to shakes, was gonna mention that, too. after eisenhower, all of our presidents have held either a state-wide office (senator, governor) or been VP

6 god none the richer (m bison), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:29 (eight years ago)

trump has revealed that the GOP coalition is not interested in changing.

― 6 god none the richer (m bison)

i don't think we needed trump to figure this one out... look at their reaction to the 2012 post-mortem.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:30 (eight years ago)

it helps that paul ryan has some national recognition as a former VP candidate and now as house speaker, but i think he's drawing the ire of people right now that he'd need to win over to get the nom. and some other candidate will swoop in to exploit that.

6 god none the richer (m bison), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:31 (eight years ago)

don't know how anybody has the energy to think to 2020 yet when we still have this mess of an election to slog through. like my mind doesn't even want to think about it at this point.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:31 (eight years ago)

Its not impossible for Ryan, no (because really who else do they have). But there's a v real possibility he won't be able to keep his caucus together, in which case he's fucked.

Xp

Οὖτις, Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:31 (eight years ago)

Bet McMullin will seek the nomination. Bet he couldn't win it.

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:32 (eight years ago)

Nah, I see McMullin going "Hmm" and thinking about a US Rep or Senate seat in Utah first.

Ned Raggett, Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:33 (eight years ago)

Praying that Trump (and nihilist Trumpalikes) continue to peel off the Nazi fringe from the GOP - it would be good to see them uselessly fractured for a decade or more & maybe the Dems could get some traction on useful social reform & social programs etc. I know shit about politics but I feel like Trump did an amazing job of emboldening the festering (& disturbingly large) white-het-supremacist underbelly of America & bringing them into the spotlight where they can have at least an eye kept on them - in contrast, any other of the clown car of assholes would likely have taken the presidency since there's such a strong narrative of distaste and untrustworthiness that HRC can't seem to shake, and the Nazis would remain hidden in the meaty pockets of the winning side, & continued to feed and grow in the dark, spreading the infection further. And maybe the GOP can rassle with its demons & eventually emerge as a reasonable, respectable right-wing alternative/opposition, & some bipartisan initiatives could actually happen - that is, gov't working like it should instead of being locked in an endless stalemate of "No, YOU'RE the devil!" "No, YOU are!" ... Ah, but I'm probably dreaming. Good luck down there.

hardcore dilettante, Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:46 (eight years ago)

The trouble is those Nazi votes will still be there for the taking, and neither party going after them isn't a game-theoretic equilibrium.

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:48 (eight years ago)

Polk was the last Speaker to become prez, but Ryan won't be Speaker in a year.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:51 (eight years ago)

Is it time for us nerds to speculate about a plurality winner of the speakership again

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:55 (eight years ago)

someone who was 12 when Obama was elected told me Obama is "just as much of a war president as Bush." that's my news for the week

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:57 (eight years ago)

The trouble is those Nazi votes will still be there for the taking, and neither party going after them isn't a game-theoretic equilibrium.

― slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby)
I guess the unmentioned part of the equation that I'd hope (in vain, I know, I know) would keep those Nazi votes from being a sweet carrot is that when you go for the Nazis you lose EVERYONE ELSE, both the lefties and the traditional, reasonable right.

The truly dispiriting part of all this for me has been how easily conspiracy thinking gets entered into the centre of the debate: it's a known fact, Hillary's a murderer. The huge numbers of Dems no less who think the election might be rigged. How quickly every baseless bit of unsubstantiated rumour becomes headline news and the subject of endless polls and part of the discourse rather than, "Pshht, nonsense, now moving on..."

hardcore dilettante, Saturday, 22 October 2016 20:59 (eight years ago)

morbs is 20? xp

doo-doo diplomacy (bizarro gazzara), Saturday, 22 October 2016 21:00 (eight years ago)

I really think Clinton would have won over each and every of the 17 candidates the GOP could choose from. Jeb! was just as boring and establishment, Rubio a nincompoop, most of the others too radical to broaden the base. None of them could have won the swing states, and none of them would have made inroads in the midwest, the way Trump has done. Yeah, she's unpopular and has been bogged down in scandals, but she also had a great convention, wiped the floor with Trump in the debates, and has created a vast get-out-the-vote organization.

Frederik B, Saturday, 22 October 2016 21:02 (eight years ago)

Yeah the whole "Hillary is the most beatable candidate in history" line that you hear -- especially on the right, but on the left too -- is I think pretty suspect. Yes she came in with high negatives, but she also came in with the demographic advantages Democrats have had for about 20 years in presidential elections, which are only getting stronger. And it's not like there was an obvious strong candidate on the other side. I think Kasich probably would have had the best chance at a general election win, but a party that nominated Kasich would be a bit of a different party anyway.

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Saturday, 22 October 2016 21:08 (eight years ago)

Heading forward, in terms of being a viable candidate:

Cruz: done
Jeb!: done
Ryan: done
Christie: done
Rubio: should be done but won't be
Fiorina: not done...I guess
Kasich: not done
Pence: done just doesn't know it
Paul: never was
Carson: done
Gilmore: lol forgot he existed
Graham, Perry, etc: done

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Saturday, 22 October 2016 21:29 (eight years ago)

fiorina was done before she ever ran for any office

iatee, Saturday, 22 October 2016 21:34 (eight years ago)

Yeah, Kasich is the only one "not done," not least because he's the only one who refused to explicitly kowtow to Trump (and also turn down the chance to be VP). But the only other reason Kasich is "not done" is that he barely got any coverage/exposure. Once people see he's just as objectionable as his GOP squad, despite yelling less in public, he'll have less of a shot. And assuming he even wants a shot, if he ran in earnest with all the BS it entails, it seems unlikely that he wouldn't be pulled even farther to the right like Romney was.

Anyway, all those other idiots (and probably some more) are surely going to run again in 2020, and it will be just as much of a clusterfuck.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 22 October 2016 21:45 (eight years ago)

Kasich seems like he might be gettin too old for this shit

Οὖτις, Saturday, 22 October 2016 21:47 (eight years ago)

kasich is the only clown to emerge from the car as a plausible candidate for 2020, tho agreed, he's still doomed, esp cause the trumpoids are going to spend the next four years excorciating him and cruz and rubio as traitor rino cucks that sabotaged what was otherwise obviously going to be a HUGE LANDSLIDE VICTORY. and in 2024 he'd be 72 years old.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Saturday, 22 October 2016 21:52 (eight years ago)

2020 -> kasich is weird and creepy if he's in the spotlight enough people will figure this out

the whole "Hillary is the most beatable candidate in history" line that you hear -- especially on the right, but on the left too -- is I think pretty suspect.

scoreboard

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Saturday, 22 October 2016 21:58 (eight years ago)

someone was saying (in the comment thread at lgm iirc) that a lot of hillary's bad rap re campaigning was bc of the 2008 primary where she did seem outclassed + out campaigned by obama but if you think obama was a pretty exceptional political force coming in second place to him isn't so bad - and she came awfully close to beating him too.

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:13 (eight years ago)

i was just talking to my brother who had dinner last night at an ultra orthodox home of republicans who were generally bemoaning the choices this election and (!!!??) wishing obama could run for a third term.

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:14 (eight years ago)

thursday night i was sharing a spliff w/ some right-leaning frummies and they were giving me the ubiquitous "i hate trump but hillary would be worse line" and i started to press them a little bit to unpack exactly why she's worse and there's a whole lot of nothing really there - like they were pretty low-information voters so it was mostly impressions they had gotten from the media or the people around them. i hit them w/ two of my favorite pro-hillary arguments 1. the last 8 years has been fine and better than fine for my neighborhood so why exactly is 4 more years of the same such a horrific thing, and 2. the day trump is elected the US credit will be downgraded. they literally had never heard an argument before then for why hillary might be better for the economy than trump. it's so weird how people come to believe these things that are barely correlated with reality.

i was just reading a jpod comment thread on fb (regarding that David French "the price of not supporting Trump" NR piece) and that kind of bizarre fantasy rhetoric is all over the place. ppl comparing hillary to hitler (gmafb)* or this kind of apocalypticism: "It is a leap of faith for me, but I will be supporting Trump. I am frightened of how the country will look in 2020 under Hillary, and by then, it may be too late to turn things around because of the new demographics which will be in place 4 years from now." i cannot understand this perspective - after 8 years of no FEMA camps you'd think that they'd be a little more reserved in their hysteria but no - just more and more and worse and worse.

* D___ U____ I respect your opinion but would leave the discussion with this observation. Hitler and his minions didn't gas one Jew until after they had achieved totalitarian power over Germany.

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:23 (eight years ago)

otoh re anecdotal observations from the religious orthodox community both republican couples that ate at my parent's sukkah today were saying that they refused to vote for trump. one said he would not vote at all and the other hadn't decided whether he could force himself to vote for hillary or would just vote third party.

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:27 (eight years ago)

After Hillary wins, Republican women are gonna come out of the woodwork for 2020. I fucking guarantee a Nikki Haley run. Kelly Ayotte too, maybe.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:27 (eight years ago)

Yeah the whole "Hillary is the most beatable candidate in history" line that you hear -- especially on the right, but on the left too -- is I think pretty suspect. Yes she came in with high negatives, but she also came in with the demographic advantages Democrats have had for about 20 years in presidential elections, which are only getting stronger. And it's not like there was an obvious strong candidate on the other side. I think Kasich probably would have had the best chance at a general election win, but a party that nominated Kasich would be a bit of a different party anyway.

― Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra)

well i think the statement is worth unpacking. as a generic democrat she's in a really strong position, due to demographic factors and so on and so forth- and politically, she is about as close as you can get to "generic centrist democrat". her weakness is a result of several factors. one, she doesn't have strong personal charisma or likability. two, she is the paradigmatic representative of the politics of personal animus. people's opinions of clinton are strongly influenced- on both the left and the right, i would argue- on the twenty-five year long smear campaign the right, and the republican party specifically, has waged against her. people don't hate hillary because they disagree with her policies, they hate her because they believe that she is personally evil.

i would argue that policy of personal animus is what led them to wind up with trump as a candidate. the republicans have made her widely disliked, but in the process sabotaged themselves and their ability to run the mythical "pragmatic conservatives" nat rev types think of themselves as.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:30 (eight years ago)

i understand wanting to talk about 2020 since 2016 is "all over but the shouting" but man, i don't think you can call it at this point. the main thing is it's just too soon to tell if the republican party can walk itself back from the brink or if they're just going to spend four years drinking their own kool-aid. after 2012 there was all this talk about "outreach" and "expanding the base" and whatever and it went precisely nowhere. you can nominate nikki haley, but will the substantial segment of the republican party who don't believe a woman is qualified to be president vote for her, even assuming that most of them are lying?

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:35 (eight years ago)

the somber republicans at lunch were talking about adding superdelegates to the republican party to keep trump figures from hijacking the nomination process again but didn't have a solution to the problem of 'reactionary' wing just wanting vastly different (and often opposite) things from the 'conservative' wing.

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:44 (eight years ago)

Isnt ayotte about to lose her seat? Haley will totally run

Οὖτις, Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:49 (eight years ago)

the reason why that "generic Republican would easily beat her" gets stated so much is because of that "7 out of 10 people think this country is headed in the wrong direction" stat that you hear bandied about so much. that said I have no idea what the hell that statement even means, really.

frogbs, Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:56 (eight years ago)

it means they've been eating too many member berries :(

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:57 (eight years ago)

it's just really difficult to speculate on that now. if a reasonable, sane Republican ran we'd see a totally different campaign.

frogbs, Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:57 (eight years ago)

i thought this was good btw don't think we've linked to it:
http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2016/10/presidential-campaigning-involves-politics

Mordy, Saturday, 22 October 2016 22:59 (eight years ago)

Hillary's popularity always decreases when she's running for something, then climbs back up when she's competently doing the job - when she stepped down as Secretary of State three years ago, even despite the decades of mud, she was he most popular politician in the US!

http://qz.com/624346/america-loves-women-like-hillary-clinton-as-long-as-theyre-not-asking-for-a-promotion/

Andrew Farrell, Saturday, 22 October 2016 23:07 (eight years ago)

Curt Schilling, rabble rouser:

https://twitter.com/tedcooper/status/789879877222567936/photo/1

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 23 October 2016 00:01 (eight years ago)

Josh Rovner ‏@JoshRovner 6h6 hours ago
@tedcooper @GrahamKates He just chose a poor time for the rally. Would have had a bigger crowd in 1840.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Sunday, 23 October 2016 01:08 (eight years ago)

scoreboard

― FREE BRADY (daria-g), Saturday, October 22, 2016

mookieproof, Sunday, 23 October 2016 04:36 (eight years ago)

Amidst reports that occupancy rates at Trump Hotels have slipped this election season, the company has announced that new brand hotels will no longer bear the Trump name.

The newest line of luxury hotels, geared towards millennials, will be called Scion, the company said.
http://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2016/10/trump-time-capsule-147-scion/505091/

I hear from this arsehole again, he's going in the river (James Morrison), Sunday, 23 October 2016 06:19 (eight years ago)

RIGGED!

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Sunday, 23 October 2016 12:31 (eight years ago)

i thought this was good btw don't think we've linked to it:
http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2016/10/presidential-campaigning-involves-politics

― Mordy, Saturday, October 22, 2016 6:59 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah i think if there's anything problematic about any of this it's on the part of the journalists, not the campaigns. and of course without any other evidence other than that email, it seems like the journalists named are (predictably) mostly denying robust "coordination" with the campaigns, so it's hard to really prove anything

k3vin k., Sunday, 23 October 2016 13:33 (eight years ago)

I think the most problematic part of all of this is on the part of Lee Fang and the rest of the people who started hounding and harassing the journalists without having proven anything.

Frederik B, Sunday, 23 October 2016 13:47 (eight years ago)

i haven't really followed the twitter fallout of it or whatever but if they're being given a hard time for it, good; if there are the sadly inevitable harassments/threats, not so good

k3vin k., Sunday, 23 October 2016 14:39 (eight years ago)

Amidst reports that occupancy rates at Trump Hotels have slipped this election season, the company has announced that new brand hotels will no longer bear the Trump name.

Wait, they'll no longer bear the Trump name (join the club!) because of reports or because reports are accurate? Anyway, fuck you, Trump family, you dicks, no take backs! Boycott Scion.

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 23 October 2016 15:11 (eight years ago)

Their new hotels are literally Scions, just vacant lots where you sleep in economy hatchbacks

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Sunday, 23 October 2016 15:19 (eight years ago)

lmao

6 god none the richer (m bison), Sunday, 23 October 2016 15:22 (eight years ago)

Seriously, though, in such a money-talks family, do you think they've been so isolated that they have no idea how much damage he's done to their "brand?" Because at the end of the day, they can change the name of their products and projects, but they're stuck as Trumps for the rest of their lives.

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 23 October 2016 15:27 (eight years ago)

Ivanka can become a Kushner but not like there's no baggage there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Kushner#Tax_evasion_and_witness_tampering

Mordy, Sunday, 23 October 2016 15:46 (eight years ago)

i haven't really followed the twitter fallout of it or whatever but if they're being given a hard time for it, good; if there are the sadly inevitable harassments/threats, not so good

― k3vin k., 23. oktober 2016 16:39 (fifty-six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Why are you ok with them being given a hard time for something they haven't done? Like, there's absolutely no proof, and everyone of them has said nothing untoward did happen. So even a 'hard time' is crap.

Frederik B, Sunday, 23 October 2016 15:47 (eight years ago)

I thought this was interesting:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/

While McMullin essentially has no chance of winning the election outright, Utah’s six electoral votes could be enough to block any candidate from winning 270 in the electoral college, thus sending the election to Congress.

sleeve, Sunday, 23 October 2016 15:50 (eight years ago)

Meanwhile in paranoiaville:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/in-the-land-of-raw-firepower-a-feeling-that-trump-is-out-of-ammo-214382

“Trump can’t win,” said Steve, who wouldn’t give his last name because he didn’t want his house blown up (who he was afraid of wasn't clear). Steve, whose accent suggested a hometown somewhere in New England...

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 23 October 2016 15:51 (eight years ago)

And HRC is feeling her oats:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-non-response-230195

“I debated him for four and a half hours. I don’t even think about responding to him anymore,” Clinton said when asked about Trump’s charge of a media conspiracy. “He can say whatever he wants to. He can run his campaign however he wants to, he can go off on tangents, he can go to Gettysburg and say he’s gonna sue women who’ve made accusations against him. I’m going to keep talking about what we want to do.”

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 23 October 2016 15:52 (eight years ago)

the suing the victims thing isn't really gonna ruin his campaign (that already happened) but if the guy wants to go off into the sunset and enjoy the newfound attention and adulation he won himself, he's going to have a hard time if he does that, cos it's just going to encourage more people to come forward and make him look worse than the Cos

Neanderthal, Sunday, 23 October 2016 15:55 (eight years ago)

While McMullin essentially has no chance of winning the election outright, Utah’s six electoral votes could be enough to block any candidate from winning 270 in the electoral college, thus sending the election to Congress.

IIRC they go on to rate this as spectacularly, near-impossibly unlikely, and don't even attempt to rate the odds of the House actually deciding to pick him - - - but yeah it is kinda interesting to think about. quirks of the system.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Sunday, 23 October 2016 15:58 (eight years ago)

yeah all the weird laws and protocol about ties in the House, etc. was what I found interesting, it's really just "what if" musing though

sleeve, Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:06 (eight years ago)

More Curt Schilling funnies!

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/curt-schilling-joins-breitbart.html

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:16 (eight years ago)

"someone who was 12 when Obama was elected told me Obama is "just as much of a war president as Bush." that's my news for the week"

did you inform this naive 18 year old yet that all presidents are war presidents, because that is a big part of the job?

akm, Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:22 (eight years ago)

20 year olds are the most ignorant people on earth.

El Tomboto, Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:30 (eight years ago)

oh yeah 20, I can't add

akm, Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:31 (eight years ago)

I mostly just made a bunch of incoherent mouth noises because I was in the middle of working on something else

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:36 (eight years ago)

tmi dude

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:37 (eight years ago)

"Meanwhile in paranoiaville:"

holy shit are they really so out of it they're still buying (?!?!?) print copies (?!?!?!?!?) of the anarchist cookbook? yeah i'm totally sure those blue box instructions are never going to go out of date.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:38 (eight years ago)

http://pixel.nymag.com/imgs/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/23/23-curt-schilling-steve-bannon.w710.h473.2x.jpg

all these breitbrats look like they're this close to dying of cirrhosis

Robby Mook (stevie), Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:41 (eight years ago)

sorry for the terrifying bigness

Robby Mook (stevie), Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:42 (eight years ago)

i mean bannon just screams "I live in a van down by the river"

Robby Mook (stevie), Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:42 (eight years ago)

all these breitbrats look like they're this close to dying of cirrhosis

― Robby Mook (stevie)

or headlining desert trip. six of one, i guess.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:46 (eight years ago)

Fitting, because he looks a lot like my buddy who DJs for Macca:

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:53 (eight years ago)

http://invisiblechildren.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/chris-holmespaul-mccartney.jpg

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:54 (eight years ago)

(Macca, left)

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 23 October 2016 16:54 (eight years ago)

URL sez it all: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-vaults-double-digit-lead-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 23 October 2016 18:46 (eight years ago)

Daaaaaaamn

Οὖτις, Sunday, 23 October 2016 18:54 (eight years ago)

i'm fucking glad his bs about not recognizing the results are hurting him. was worried it might resonate with more than just his lunatic base.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Sunday, 23 October 2016 18:55 (eight years ago)

With a little over two weeks before the election, the chances that those numbers will "come down" will themselves start to drop.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 23 October 2016 18:56 (eight years ago)

Like I'm sure they exist but who the fuck are undecided voters at this point?

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Sunday, 23 October 2016 18:59 (eight years ago)

My guess is people who live in red states whose media has been so saturated with anti-Hillary conspiracy theories for decades that they've started to believe some of them but who are too smart to want a President Trump.

Fetchboy, Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:05 (eight years ago)

Or perhaps people choosing between Trump and third party right?

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:16 (eight years ago)

http://boingboing.net/2016/10/22/alt-right-conspiracy-image-gen.html

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:20 (eight years ago)

I know polling predicts the Senate to barely go to democrats and some pickups in the house but not enough to flip. Is it all possible that depressed GOP turnout will swing these even more or is that already baked into the prediction models?

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:33 (eight years ago)

RealClearPolitics just put Texas back in toss-up on their map. Texas.

Neanderthal, Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:34 (eight years ago)

I would be so happy to Texas go democrat. I feel a lot of shame for our horrible voting record and assholes we keep putting into office.

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:36 (eight years ago)

*for Texas

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:36 (eight years ago)

yeah "undecided voters" is i think shorthand for people who vote but hate both donald and hillary and think neither is qualified to be president, the ones who post those desperate "can't we just not have a president at all?" memes.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:37 (eight years ago)

I know polling predicts the Senate to barely go to democrats and some pickups in the house but not enough to flip. Is it all possible that depressed GOP turnout will swing these even more or is that already baked into the prediction models?

― Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles)

silver actually put up a post about this a couple hours ago

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:38 (eight years ago)

"Wheels" Abbott is sweating it: https://mobile.twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/789871878089216000?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:45 (eight years ago)

i knew shit was getting real here in Texas when i starting seeing ads for the presidential race on tv--i cannot remember ever seeing any here before now.

ryan, Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

When one candidate leads among women by a 2-1 margin, things can get awfully real in a hurry.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 23 October 2016 19:56 (eight years ago)

Trump is still running ads in the New York media market.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Sunday, 23 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

When one candidate leads among women by a 2-1 margin, things can get awfully real in a hurry.

― a little too mature to be cute (Aimless)

also doesn't help when the candidate isn't, as far as anybody knows, actually talking to the people responsible for his gotv effort

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Sunday, 23 October 2016 20:02 (eight years ago)

frogbs

the reason why that "generic Republican would easily beat her" gets stated so much is because of that "7 out of 10 people think this country is headed in the wrong direction" stat that you hear bandied about so much. that said I have no idea what the hell that statement even means, really.

Well, people who bandy it about are assuming that all 70% would agree with THEM about what the right track would be!

A not insignificant portion of that "wrong track" number has to be people who think the country isn't too liberal, but rather too conservative. I'd wager that plenty of Sanders/Reich folks think the country's headed in the wrong direction. They presumably mean too much economic inequality, too much corporate power. Possibly also too many stupid wars.

For most of those people, a vote for "change," change in the abstract, without specifying which specific changes are meant, does not further their interests.

Lots of people think that being poked by badgers is bad. That doesn't mean they think that having their genitals chewed by angry wolverines would be better.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Sunday, 23 October 2016 20:19 (eight years ago)

I don't think the expat living in Israel vote is enough to make an electoral difference (and my guess is that Americans who have made aliyah are more to the right as a group) but it's interesting that even a fairly conservative country dramatically prefers Hillary to Trump: http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/israel-poll-trump-clinton/

Mordy, Sunday, 23 October 2016 20:22 (eight years ago)

iirc early voting in GA has been at least 50% people over 60 so I'm pretty sure the GOP is holding strong here

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Sunday, 23 October 2016 21:08 (eight years ago)

I've seen a surprising number of Hilary ads and at least one Trump one which makes no sense - these are on stations that cover Washington and Idaho, both of which have a 97% certainty rating on 538 (though obviously for different candidates).

Also in regards to the yard sign talk above, the reason I'm fascinated by it this year is that I see so many rural farms with giant signs for ever single other GOP candidate on the ballot but none of them have Trump signs. I guarantee each and every one of these places had a giant Romney or McCain sign in the past elections.

joygoat, Sunday, 23 October 2016 21:20 (eight years ago)

I see that in Oregon as well

sleeve, Sunday, 23 October 2016 21:24 (eight years ago)

uh can someone w twitter @ nate on this

https://s14.postimg.org/6pkd9qkdd/image.png

qualx, Sunday, 23 October 2016 21:30 (eight years ago)

That's probably the least surprising poll so far.

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 23 October 2016 21:33 (eight years ago)

yeah, but the 1.3% jump for trump is the biggest shift in odds in 10 days

qualx, Sunday, 23 October 2016 21:38 (eight years ago)

oklahoma literally the reddest state in the entire country. alabama and west virginia have a higher chance of going democratic.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Sunday, 23 October 2016 21:42 (eight years ago)

538 is the most volatile poll aggregator this election I wouldn't worry about it

Mordy, Sunday, 23 October 2016 21:43 (eight years ago)

Washington ads could simply be about keeping up turnout, running up the popular vote, maybe helping downballot? Several GOP congresspeople who might be vulnerable if Trump sinks GOP turnout and Dems bother to show up.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Sunday, 23 October 2016 21:46 (eight years ago)

qualx, are you worried? I'm about ready to mix a cocktail. Come over.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 23 October 2016 21:47 (eight years ago)

lol not concerned either way, just weirded out that the vaunted 538 system could be so affected by a single OK poll, it seems very broken

qualx, Sunday, 23 October 2016 21:50 (eight years ago)

For the first time in weeks I flipped to CNN. I've never seen such insolence from reporters. Poppy Bush or whatever her name is kept challenging the Trump spokesman on her claim that polls are "skewed."

"OK. Name a poll. We should use. Name a poll. Name. A. Poll. NAME A POLL."

It was straight GO TO LUNCH, GEORGE. GO TO LUNCH. WILL YOU. GO TO LUNCH.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 23 October 2016 22:09 (eight years ago)

Hahaha otm

Neanderthal, Sunday, 23 October 2016 22:23 (eight years ago)

evocative phrase from upthread, which struck me as evocative even though the moment is probably gone:

sharing a spliff w/ some right-leaning frummies

gathered together in a cave grooving with a pict

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Sunday, 23 October 2016 22:25 (eight years ago)

lol not concerned either way, just weirded out that the vaunted 538 system could be so affected by a single OK poll, it seems very broken

― qualx

there aren't a lot of polls of oklahoma, because nobody really cares, so what polls there are skew the average more.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Sunday, 23 October 2016 22:26 (eight years ago)

XP RULES

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Monday, 24 October 2016 00:00 (eight years ago)

as far as seeing commercials in non-competitive states, i'm pretty sure the national campaigns do largescale national ad-buys that are separate from the targeted ad buys aimed at battleground states, so what you're seeing is just that

Clay, Monday, 24 October 2016 00:30 (eight years ago)

Trump hasn't tweeted for 3 days

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 24 October 2016 00:53 (eight years ago)

SuperPACs can spend their money however they want, that seems like the only way you'd actually see national ad buying. It's a total waste (i.e. the anti-Hillary PAC ads during the NLCS)

El Tomboto, Monday, 24 October 2016 00:56 (eight years ago)

Caek - you mean it's just been iphone / staff tweets since Thursday?

El Tomboto, Monday, 24 October 2016 00:58 (eight years ago)

Well, people who bandy it about are assuming that all 70% would agree with THEM about what the right track would be!

A not insignificant portion of that "wrong track" number has to be people who think the country isn't too liberal, but rather too conservative. I'd wager that plenty of Sanders/Reich folks think the country's headed in the wrong direction. They presumably mean too much economic inequality, too much corporate power. Possibly also too many stupid wars.

For most of those people, a vote for "change," change in the abstract, without specifying which specific changes are meant, does not further their interests.

Lots of people think that being poked by badgers is bad. That doesn't mean they think that having their genitals chewed by angry wolverines would be better.

yeah the more I think about this question the more I dislike it. we had 8 years of a great president (IMO) mostly squandered thanks to a Republican congress, I think both sides answer that differently.

frogbs, Monday, 24 October 2016 01:35 (eight years ago)

Trump hasn't tweetedtweeked for 3 days

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 03:12 (eight years ago)

he just tweeted some shit about Mosul 3 hours ago

akm, Monday, 24 October 2016 03:14 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/RealRealDonaldT

this account retweets anything sent by android. is it busted?

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 24 October 2016 04:11 (eight years ago)

I know polling predicts the Senate to barely go to democrats and some pickups in the house but not enough to flip. Is it all possible that depressed GOP turnout will swing these even more or is that already baked into the prediction models?

― Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles)

silver actually put up a post about this a couple hours ago

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/

― mystery local boy (rushomancy), Sunday, October 23, 2016 7:38 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

The question of whether the models incorporate likely turnout is something I've wondered about too, specifically do actual poll numbers reflect that at all? Silver implies that it's the case but never explicitly answers the question that I can see.

viborg, Monday, 24 October 2016 04:30 (eight years ago)

This is handier actually

https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughTrumpSpam/comments/4uabwt/final_response_megathread/

Evan, Monday, 24 October 2016 05:25 (eight years ago)

http://tinyletter.com/osletter/letters/this-week-donald-bonaparte-a-bonus-debate-nostalgia-trap-house

First time I've actually heard someone give voice to the accelerationist view, rather than just writing it out, as the host of the Open Source podcast argues with Felix Beiderman about the motivational value from a president trump. Felix, of course, laughs at the guy's stance about the importance of the media.

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Monday, 24 October 2016 08:32 (eight years ago)

I'm already pissed off that Clinton's resisting the urge to slaughter Ryan, McConnell, et al. She needs to hang Trump around the neck of every Republican running for office: he's a culmination, not an aberration, to say that this is the shit we've dealt with since January 1981. Obama gets it, and he can say it b/c he doesn't give a fuck anymore. I worry that an already bad 2018 will look worse because Clinton decides she can deal with Ryan, so when their comity inevitably dissolves voters blame her because she will have Broken Promises about getting shit done.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 24 October 2016 10:29 (eight years ago)

Trump hasn't tweeted tweeked for 3 days

He hasn't twerked either

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 24 October 2016 10:57 (eight years ago)

The respectfully conciliatory vibe of Obama's first term, all the compromises made in the name of sympathetic consensus-building, really screwed him and his agenda. Ideally Clinton would be running as hard against all the knuckleheads and knuckle draggers in congress as she is against Trump, though she's not even running that hard against Trump. As it is I can imagine her nominating Ryan to the Supreme Court in the spirit of goodwill. Though to be fair, whatever Trump voter revolt inevitably leads to his ouster will no doubt introduce an even less willing partner, so maybe taking it easy on the status quo isn't such a bad idea. What really pisses me off is that Ryan, McConnell et al. do the same self-preservation dance again and again, coddling and coopting the even farther right. Clinton really should say, enough of this shit.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 11:49 (eight years ago)

The respectfully conciliatory vibe of Obama's first term, all the compromises made in the name of sympathetic consensus-building, really screwed him and his agenda. Ideally Clinton would be running as hard against all the knuckleheads and knuckle draggers in congress as she is against Trump, though she's not even running that hard against Trump. As it is I can imagine her nominating Ryan to the Supreme Court in the spirit of goodwill. Though to be fair, whatever Trump voter revolt inevitably leads to his ouster will no doubt introduce an even less willing partner, so maybe taking it easy on the status quo isn't such a bad idea. What really pisses me off is that Ryan, McConnell et al. do the same self-preservation dance again and again, coddling and coopting the even farther right. Clinton really should say, enough of this shit.

― Josh in Chicago

clinton is not an attack dog. if she tried, it would backfire on her, and she damn well knows it.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Monday, 24 October 2016 12:01 (eight years ago)

Hasn't she just begun attacking senate candidates on the campaign?

Frederik B, Monday, 24 October 2016 12:34 (eight years ago)

clinton is not an attack dog. if she tried, it would backfire on her, and she damn well knows it.

― mystery local boy (rushomancy),

I disagree. She sucks when she aims for inspiration.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 24 October 2016 12:47 (eight years ago)

A feistier Clinton Administration that comes out swinging and seeks to humiliate and punish Ryan et al. would find itself with more enemies, and fewer allies. One can easily imagine a scenario in which an embattled Clintonian camp is opposed on all sides - by Sandernistas saying she's being too timid, by Ryanoids who feel like they have to look like they're resisting her vagenda, and of course by the Trumpian torches-and-pitchforks crowd.

Centrist Democrats plus "moderate" establishment Republicans have a glimmer of hope of passing some legislation. Lefties won't love everything that comes out of that sausage machine, to be sure. But some good stuff might get done as well.

Anyway, there is a case to be made that being conciliatory - or appearing conciliatory - may be both more devious, more ruthless, and more effective at eviscerating GOPers. It's a honeypot tactic.

Step 1: Clinton says, let's work with Speaker Ryan to bid up the nation's wounds and find common ground. Surely we can work to join hands to move forward and begin to solve some of the nation's problems, which have been so sadly neglected during the previous seven years of gridlock and obstruction.

Step 2: Ryan cautiously says, "Hmmm, yeah, that sounds okay, maybe there ARE some common-sense solutions where we can reach across the aisle and...."

Step 3: Torches-and-Pitchforks doodz erupt in spasmodic apoplexy because the traitor cuck beta Ryan has CAVED to the hated HILLBEAST just like we told you he would and arghspoewjgqwo3ih!!!!HAGSDH!!!! drain the swamp throw the bums out burn it all down etc.

Step 4: Instead of the usual midterm bloodbath for the President's party, Ryan and the other traitor cuck betas are all primaried into irrelevance by the entire cast of Duck Dynasty. Some of those weirdos get into Congress but have no idea what to do once they get there. Democrats are on a path to a House majority.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 24 October 2016 12:56 (eight years ago)

Machiavelli Rodham Clinton ftw

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 24 October 2016 12:59 (eight years ago)

I see little to nothing happening legislatively. She will govern by executive order. She'll fill lower court seats and appoint responsible people to regulatory agencies. That's it.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 24 October 2016 13:01 (eight years ago)

I see little to nothing happening legislatively. She will govern by executive order. She'll fill lower court seats and appoint responsible people to regulatory agencies. That's it.

...which is actually enough for me. (As noted, I am an inside-the-Beltway creature and I love it when there's a basically-functional Federal government.) But I also harbor hopes for more, like any good idealistic bleeding-heart liberal.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 24 October 2016 13:05 (eight years ago)

We all do. We've got congressmen collecting paychecks whose job is to do nothing; they were sent to Washington by voters in 2010 and 2014 to show the redundancy of the federal government.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 24 October 2016 13:11 (eight years ago)

For Clinton to work with moderate Republicans would require them to give up the Hastert rule. I feel like that should be the focus of any Machiavellian dem attack on the Ryanoids, explaining how they've voluntarily let the Freedom caucus veto every possible bi-partisan deal.

Really, mostly she needs to bring in a Dem senate, so that she can get her appointments through the system. That's probably why she's focusing explicitly on the close senate races, rather than attacking Ryan.

Frederik B, Monday, 24 October 2016 13:15 (eight years ago)

A feistier Clinton Administration that comes out swinging and seeks to humiliate and punish Ryan et al. would find itself with more enemies,

More enemies? They've hated her for decades! One of the (hardly countered) calls of her opposition has been "lock her up!" It took Obama a few weeks to build up that level of animosity. If she doesn't want to do it, fine, then have a surrogate do it. Because the festering underbelly of the GOP is actively dangerous, and the last thing they need is "representation" at the highest levels.

Anyway, she's so experienced (read: cynical) that I don't know what she'll do when elected. But the smart thing, given she has no huge absolutely concrete must-dos on the table like health care that requires navigating asshole obstructionism, would be to address asshole obstructionism as the primary issue, and link it to all these Trump enabling dickheads. Make a case to the American people the government is more than just the Supreme Court, and that the lack of productivity on the part of congress has been part of the problem for everyone, not just democratic policy.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 13:24 (eight years ago)

Fixing the problems with the ACA is a concrete must-do!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 24 October 2016 13:31 (eight years ago)

Yes. She has also literally called for unlimited freedom of movement throughout North America which will, um, take some doing.

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 24 October 2016 13:35 (eight years ago)

xpost Oh for sure, but fixing has got to be easier than getting the ACA approved in the first place (famous last words). Like, I'm sure the GOP will have plenty of suggestions for how to fix it, but that's better than their blanket chant of "repeal it." Which we'll get, anyway. Once they're done trying to get Clinton impeached for getting illegally elected. And Benghazi. And 9/11. And being a woman. And murder.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 13:41 (eight years ago)

You'd think so, and even during the Reagan-Bush era this simple kind of legislative fix would've taken no effort.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 24 October 2016 13:43 (eight years ago)

She's said immigration reform is a must-do first priority. Perhaps rightly, she fears a midterm backlash from Trumpers so she needs to move on that when she still has a tailwind (and, presumably, a Senate majority).

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 24 October 2016 13:46 (eight years ago)

Ha, yeah, immigration reform will be a great way to placate those currently calling for a literal giant wall between the US and Mexico.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 14:05 (eight years ago)

Yes, it'd be the most provocative thing possible for torches-and-pitchforks doodz. But the idea is not to placate them, but to further marginalize them. Make Ryan choose.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 24 October 2016 14:10 (eight years ago)

I'm pretty sure he already chose the wall.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 14:11 (eight years ago)

Maybe the compromise can be a wall with heavy doors? Doors with combination locks, whose combination you have to earn?

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 14:12 (eight years ago)

The wall could be a breakout room!

how's life, Monday, 24 October 2016 14:13 (eight years ago)

A wall tipped on its side is just a bridge. Think about it.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 14:17 (eight years ago)

Roadies could build the wall over the course of a legislative session, and then Gilmour will play a solo on top of it.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 24 October 2016 14:19 (eight years ago)

Mr. Ryan, tear down this wall.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 14:19 (eight years ago)

clinton is not an attack dog. if she tried, it would backfire on her, and she damn well knows it.

― mystery local boy (rushomancy),

I disagree. She sucks when she aims for inspiration.

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn)

being shitty at being "inspirational" doesn't make one good at being mean.

look i just can't credit that clinton is possibly going to come into office with the same naive "can't we all just get along" outlook that obama took after his election. but at the same time she obviously knows the value of having differing private and public stances. any "revenge" clinton takes on the republicans is not going to come in convenient zing form.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Monday, 24 October 2016 14:26 (eight years ago)

It's not revenge to link her detractors with a racist, xenophobic, misogynistic, tax-dodging, ignorance-spewing conman asshole. He's an untouchable, so how do you deal with someone who rubbed up on some of that stink?

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 14:29 (eight years ago)

by january 2017 everyone will have moved on from trump imo (trump the individual, obv not the nativism/racism/grievance politics of the GOP base), efforts to continually connect GOP w/ trump i think are gonna fail. GOP is gonna ditch him so fast and i think everyone's desire to say goodbye to him when he loses is gonna win out

marcos, Monday, 24 October 2016 15:00 (eight years ago)

I see little to nothing happening legislatively. She will govern by executive order. She'll fill lower court seats and appoint responsible people to regulatory agencies. That's it.

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, October 24, 2016 9:01 AM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yea this is otm. i don't see anything changing wrt GOP obstructionism. i have little faith in a clinton administration having any monumental progressive accomplishments apart from whatever can be wrangled through executive orders or appintments

marcos, Monday, 24 October 2016 15:02 (eight years ago)

marcos = correct

Οὖτις, Monday, 24 October 2016 15:06 (eight years ago)

This conversation approaches the basic knots drawn by Clinton's strategic decision to capitalize on Trump's toxicity by running as a centrist with overt welcomes to MOR Republicans put off by their candidate (and NOT by their party's platform or its elected officials' ongoing obstructionism). She probably could have won a narrower victory really sticking it to all these guys at all times, but I can't say I'm really surprised she's chosen the approach that points to a much safer margin of victory, especially since, up until the tape came out, she was almost as widely disliked as Trump (though nonetheless on a path to win, certainly after the first debate). Anyway, so she doesn't want to run against Ryan and co., because she might lose some of the Republicans she's winning over. Maybe it won't matter, because the Trumpist wing now also hates Ryan and has their knives sharpened. Or maybe they'll forget all about that once Clinton is President and they have a common foe. ''I like this Ryan. He obstructs,'' etc.

Not to become one of those n-dimensional chess people but there certainly COULD be a long game: come in all smiles, push for legislation most of the country supports, ''let's show America we're all more interested in getting things done than in Washington bickering,'' then spend 2018 painting Congress as worthless do-nothings held hostage by the toxic Trump and Cruz wings when they inevitably bottle everything up. ''It passed with bipartisan support in the Senate, and there are Republicans in the House who are ready to vote for it too, but Paul Ryan won't even let it come to a vote!'' I dunno. People had similar hopes about Obama but the narrative didn't really conform to that.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Monday, 24 October 2016 15:10 (eight years ago)

Things are looking up for Trump! He just got his first major newspaper endorsement. From a newspaper owned by Adelson, but still!

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 15:10 (eight years ago)

Clintons think of nothing BUT elections so I'm sure they've made 2018 calculations already. The map is horrifying for Democrats that year. She want to flip as many local and federal legislative seats to mitigate the 2018 losses.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 24 October 2016 15:13 (eight years ago)

I don't think tying the GOP and its candidates to Trump is IMPOSSIBLE but it will take work, rhetorical groundwork and pressing the point in each and every race. Some candidates in future races will think they have something to gain by it but I expect it to be very case by case, much like the individual GOP pols who've decided differently how to endorse, non-endorse, dis-endorse... in some races I think you'll see people pressing to make them pay for that. ''Congressman Schmuckrake says he wants to be an inclusive leader for ALL Pennsylvanians. But when Donald Trump said (clip of Trump), Congressman Schmuckrake said (clip of enthusastic endorsement). When Donald Trump called for... (etc.)'' But in other places they'll judge that a losing play.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Monday, 24 October 2016 15:18 (eight years ago)

so Trump just tweeted that Dems are 'making up' polls to make it look like he was losing two hours ago, then cited Rasmussen as proof he is going to win.

I was going to wait to early vote but now I'm getting ready to go out and do it today.

Neanderthal, Monday, 24 October 2016 15:20 (eight years ago)

he's also citing yesterday's IBD poll today despite the fact that today's version already came out and shows him tied. heelarious

Neanderthal, Monday, 24 October 2016 15:22 (eight years ago)

Similarly:

“I’ll tell you what, we’re doing well in the polls, but you know, I really think those polls are very inaccurate,” Trump said

“When it comes to women, I think we’re doing better with women than with men. So we’re setting records with men. But I want to set records with women. I hate to tell the men this, but if I could swap, I’d swap you out so fast, you have no idea how fast.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-florida-polling-nosedive-230214

Evan, Monday, 24 October 2016 15:23 (eight years ago)

He's actually better at constantly saying very against-intelligence shit than you could possibly realize.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 15:47 (eight years ago)

His consistency is amazing. That's the biggest reason he's such a cartoon character to me.

Evan, Monday, 24 October 2016 15:51 (eight years ago)

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/31/first-time-voters

maura, Monday, 24 October 2016 15:56 (eight years ago)

“I’m a member of the Beach Goys. Instead of meeting up on the Internet, we’ll meet up in bars and shoot the breeze. I wouldn’t say white nationalist, because it’s kind of a loaded term. It’s like someone asking you if you’re racist—you know what I mean? So I would reject that term. It’s definitely alternative right wing—I would say it’s an alt-right group for sure."

wonder if he doesn't understand the meaning of his group's name or he thinks as long as he doesn't call himself a white supremacist no one else will understand it

Mordy, Monday, 24 October 2016 16:38 (eight years ago)

shoulda asked him what his 4chan username is

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 24 October 2016 16:42 (eight years ago)

god the trump voters in that piece give me pause

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Monday, 24 October 2016 16:43 (eight years ago)

most amazing part of that quote is him basically saying that he needs sympathy for being a racist prick as it makes him 'a minority'.
get this sensitive soul a safe space somebody, he just needs to feel free of your awful judgements.

jamiesummerz, Monday, 24 October 2016 16:44 (eight years ago)

it's like a bunch of dumb man-on-the-street interviews but classed up with that New Yorker font and a real live picture photographer

El Tomboto, Monday, 24 October 2016 16:59 (eight years ago)

xpost It's an ironic tendency that people of that ilk have been demonstrating for some time: they want protections and special privilege and fair treatment wrt their ability to malign calls for protections and special privilege and fair treatment from the people they hate.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:01 (eight years ago)

'It's racist of you to call me out on my racism.'

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:02 (eight years ago)

That’s what a lot of people on the left don’t realize. It’s not 1959 anymore. You’re the establishment. You guys run shit. I’m on the other side of that. Not to toot my own horn, or whatever. I’m just saying it’s actually difficult being a minority in that respect.

http://pix.iemoji.com/images/emoji/apple/ios-9/33/1818.png

nomar, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:04 (eight years ago)

I find her very untrustworthy. I don’t trust her. You see the whole e-mail scandal, and she’s been caught in multiple lies about it. Honesty is a very big deal to me. That’s my biggest pet peeve. I hate being lied to. And even though she’s not, like, lying to me personally, she’s been caught in a lie, and I don’t want someone like that leading my country.”

yeah better vote for the person who lies about basically everything instead

frogbs, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:04 (eight years ago)

Man, I was literally about to post that.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:06 (eight years ago)

"At least he is consistent. You shouldn't believe anything he has to say, but Hillary? You don't know what to trust!"

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:06 (eight years ago)

if you tell one lie you're a liar. if you tell a million lies you're a visionary.

Mordy, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:06 (eight years ago)

I'd happily consent if someone pledged to reboot the brain of everyone in this country. It's time, I think.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:08 (eight years ago)

"I wouldn’t say white nationalist, because it’s kind of a loaded term. We prefer 'White Nationalist-American'."

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:09 (eight years ago)

Maybe they were previously (and rightly) too ashamed to voice their opinions, but I have never before seen as many examples of adults with the cognitive and critical thinking skills of a four-year-old as I have in 2016.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:11 (eight years ago)

"I wouldn't say being white makes me a minority, per se, but I would say, in context as a Trump supporter, that it does make me a loser, and what is a loser if not an oppressed minority?"

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:11 (eight years ago)

Let's fast-track a constitutional amendment to make hatemongers a protected class. It's heartbreaking to see them so marginalized.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:18 (eight years ago)

Hey now - they believe in equal rights, not *special* rights. Better make sure all forms of mongering are covered.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:20 (eight years ago)

It's amazing how often I encounter the "we are all entitled to our own opinion, which is just as valid as yours" argument. Fuck that. There are dozens of things one should not be entitled to believe, let alone say out loud.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:22 (eight years ago)

You're in luck!

https://thinkprogress.org/trump-first-amendment-too-much-protection-37e72ee16ea2#.lllvwofiu

Evan, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

IDGAF Obama remains the best Obama -- he's campaigning in California for Doug Applegate, running against Darrell Issa:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cvik80eUkAAquWS.jpg

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:28 (eight years ago)

I'm fine with people saying they have a right to their disgusting opinions. I have a right to mine as well and I'm happy to tell them my opinion is they are a bunch of hateful assholes.

xp

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:29 (eight years ago)

if you cant make fun of people accusing you of being a socialist muslim when you're president whats the use man

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:30 (eight years ago)

Free speech is paramount. But fuck a person that thinks they can say something racist and then end the argument with "well, my opinion is just as valid as yours, we should just agree to disagree."

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:30 (eight years ago)

Freedom of speech doesn't mean your positions will be countenanced by the political process.

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:32 (eight years ago)

lol @ that Issa bit, will be so happy if that putz loses

Οὖτις, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:33 (eight years ago)

"The Clinton family has been active in politics for years now, and they’ve been right in the line of fire the entire time. They’ve been representing America for the past several decades. That’s a problem, because it turns our representative democracy into an oligarchy. It creates this political environment where the same type of people are ruling our government and no change is made."

He is saying this about the first female candidate ever... Like, I get his point, but how does people not see the irony?

Frederik B, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:42 (eight years ago)

Voted. Once, i promise.

Neanderthal, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:43 (eight years ago)

suuuure

sleeve, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:44 (eight years ago)

the first female candidate major party presidential nominee ever

fixed

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:45 (eight years ago)

Oh, btw, you're all missing a point about the alt-right voter: Just after saying he's a minority, he says that Trump will win because there are so many like him... At least I think you're missing it, perhaps you aren't, I don't know.

Frederik B, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

Will my ballot be rejected if i wrote EAT A DICK on it

Neanderthal, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

You voted for Richard Eaton?

Evan, Monday, 24 October 2016 17:48 (eight years ago)

Will my ballot be rejected if i wrote EAT A DICK on it

Spoilt votes

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, 24 October 2016 17:49 (eight years ago)

It's amazing how often I encounter the "we are all entitled to our own opinion, which is just as valid as yours" argument. Fuck that. There are dozens of things one should not be entitled to believe, let alone say out loud.

lol try teaching a lol college philosophy class

j., Monday, 24 October 2016 17:59 (eight years ago)

There's ultimately nothing wrong with having and voicing shit opinions. The real problem is stubbornly clinging to those opinions after people repeatedly point out why they're shit. That's the thing that turns you into a shit person.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 18:06 (eight years ago)

That's just your opinion.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 18:26 (eight years ago)

True, but I cling to it stubbornly.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 18:29 (eight years ago)

don't you mean bitterly

Οὖτις, Monday, 24 October 2016 18:33 (eight years ago)

Opinions stubbornly, guns bitterly.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 18:34 (eight years ago)

Beneath the trees, where nobody sees
They'll hide and seek as long as they please
That's the thing that turns you into a shit person.

Neanderthal, Monday, 24 October 2016 18:35 (eight years ago)

bitter clingin, gun bringin shit clingers

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 24 October 2016 18:38 (eight years ago)

my grandfather's catch phrase was "everybody's got a right to their own stupid goddamn opinion"

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Monday, 24 October 2016 18:50 (eight years ago)

opinions are like assholes
they are all racist

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, 24 October 2016 18:52 (eight years ago)

on that note, perhaps you would like to see wyclef jean in whiteface?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kD9nmLeHMow

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Monday, 24 October 2016 18:53 (eight years ago)

PROTIP: you don't

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Monday, 24 October 2016 18:54 (eight years ago)

Re: to that Cracked article from Jason Pargin that we linked here some days ago, there's a frustratingly mixed-bag ep of the Cracked Podcast following up on how the media gets so much wrong about Trump country.

They barely get their fingers around the problems here, are sharply insightful on other parts, and way off on others.

http://earwolf.com/episode/trump-country/

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Monday, 24 October 2016 19:06 (eight years ago)

Bernie Sanders continues to be more adult than many of his petulant former supporters: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/sanders-says-clinton-insults-part-of-campaigns

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Monday, 24 October 2016 19:51 (eight years ago)

He's also quite funny: https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/790616347289935873

Frederik B, Monday, 24 October 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

Trump on porn actress who accused him of misconduct: 'Oh, I'm sure she's never been grabbed before'

(•̪●) (carne asada), Monday, 24 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

great response dumb ass

(•̪●) (carne asada), Monday, 24 October 2016 20:01 (eight years ago)

"by somebody else - not by me!"

Οὖτις, Monday, 24 October 2016 20:05 (eight years ago)

Does it make me as bad as his 'Lock her up!' supporters if I say that I want him to spend the rest of his miserable life in jail? If so, I can probably live with myself.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 20:13 (eight years ago)

as long as it's the best jail

Οὖτις, Monday, 24 October 2016 20:15 (eight years ago)

He's already in a jail of his own devising.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 20:17 (eight years ago)

if you believe what part of Trump's motivation might have been it's kind of crazy how Obama's roasting him a few years back also ended up roasting the entire republican party

nomar, Monday, 24 October 2016 20:24 (eight years ago)

crazy and hilarious

Οὖτις, Monday, 24 October 2016 20:29 (eight years ago)

ULTIMATE TROLL

Οὖτις, Monday, 24 October 2016 20:29 (eight years ago)

Steve Kornacki, whom I hasten to say I like, spent five minutes explaining this harebrained scenario whereby McMullin wins Utah, Trump actually wins the tossup states, and the election goes to the House. They're bored, man.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 24 October 2016 20:32 (eight years ago)

At least them speculating on ever more exotic ways Trump could lose is better than them trying to pretend that it's close.

Frederik B, Monday, 24 October 2016 20:35 (eight years ago)

I'm bored too (where is oppo bomb)

Evan, Monday, 24 October 2016 20:37 (eight years ago)

Clinton up three in Florida, Trump up three in Texas.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 24 October 2016 20:41 (eight years ago)

my god, if clinton wins texas

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Monday, 24 October 2016 20:42 (eight years ago)

Clinton will not win Texas

¶ (DJP), Monday, 24 October 2016 20:45 (eight years ago)

FiveThirtyEight headline: What Went Wrong For Gary Johnson

Um, he ran as a third party candidate? He's an imbecile? (These two categories do not necessarily overlap.)

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Monday, 24 October 2016 20:46 (eight years ago)

"Trump starts grappling with reality"

I have my doubts.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 24 October 2016 20:53 (eight years ago)

said Trump, who continues to falsely suggest all African-Americans live in inner cities

lol

frogbs, Monday, 24 October 2016 20:59 (eight years ago)

lol at the Obama quote above re conservative House members "praying" for him. no makes 'praying for someone' sound like a threat quite the way a sanctimonious religious right asshole can.

acerbic (sic)s (will), Monday, 24 October 2016 21:18 (eight years ago)

This one is a bit easier to read. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/01/28/upshot/donald-trump-twitter-insults.html?ref=politics&_r=0

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Monday, 24 October 2016 21:21 (eight years ago)

Trump is really fond of saying "dog."

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Monday, 24 October 2016 21:25 (eight years ago)

kind of lol but mostly sad, bc you can just say any combination of "wikileaks corruption rigged system emails media bias" and people will eat that shit up http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/we-re-in-the-universal-derp-implosion

marcos, Monday, 24 October 2016 21:27 (eight years ago)

More fond of "disaster," though not as fond as I'd expected.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Monday, 24 October 2016 21:27 (eight years ago)

here is the original tweet that trump just ends up parroting mentioned in the TPM link i posted

https://twitter.com/TaylorEgly/status/790375171576111105
"Todays Wikileaks dump revealed the DNC works w/ pollsters to skew polls in their favor by over-polling Democrats & under-polling Republicans"

lol all the first responses are variations of "you don't know how polling works"

marcos, Monday, 24 October 2016 21:31 (eight years ago)

Scott Adams: "Remind me how you do a scientific poll when 10% of Trump voters are literally hiding. (Big surprise coming, bullies.)"

"literally"

"hiding"

frogbs, Monday, 24 October 2016 21:34 (eight years ago)

lol if they're the silent majority how come they never shut the fuck up

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 24 October 2016 21:37 (eight years ago)

got a good laugh out of:
China:
“Terrible!”

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 24 October 2016 21:40 (eight years ago)

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/03/donald-trumps-bleak-view-of-how-dogs-live.html

Bad Things That Happen to Dogs, According to Donald Trump

akm, Monday, 24 October 2016 21:48 (eight years ago)

Cos the first thing i associate with Trump voters is their reluctance to talk about who they're voting for.

Neanderthal, Monday, 24 October 2016 21:49 (eight years ago)

Xpost

Neanderthal, Monday, 24 October 2016 21:50 (eight years ago)

If anything, given Trump's MO, you would think they would be declaring their allegiance for fear of reprisal, rather than hiding it.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 21:51 (eight years ago)

"Like a dog," he said.

jmm, Monday, 24 October 2016 21:59 (eight years ago)

Another business model dies:

https://twitter.com/cwarzel/status/790672961753735168

Kristan, a Trump supporter from Plant City on whether she'd pay for Trump TV network: "pay for it?! it should be free. truth should be free"

Ned Raggett, Monday, 24 October 2016 22:01 (eight years ago)

Gotta pay O'Keefe's legal team somehow.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 24 October 2016 22:07 (eight years ago)

On the flip side, along those lines, responses to proposed ATT/Time-Warner merger was weirdly telling. Brash Trump spox: "Donald Trump will break up the new media conglomerate oligopolies that have gained enormous control over our information, intrude into our personal lives, and in this election, are attempting to unduly influence America’s political process." Cautious Clinton spox: "There are a number of questions and concerns that rise in that vein about this announced deal but there is still a lot of information that needs to come out before any conclusion should be reached,” Fallon told reporters on Sunday. “Certainly she thinks that regulators should scrutinize it closely.”

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 24 October 2016 22:11 (eight years ago)

See, that response writ large is exactly why I think Trump Media would bomb. His name is increasingly toxic, and he's going to lose the election by a stupefying margin, but he's going to somehow convince cable providers and advertisers and whatever (look, I don't pretend to know exactly who you have to convince to take a shot on your fledgling cable network) that he's a horse worth betting on? In his dreams.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 22:17 (eight years ago)

The Twitter response, I meant.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Monday, 24 October 2016 22:18 (eight years ago)

Hmm, the Torygraph is up to something:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/24/exclusive-investigation-donald-trump-faces-foreign-donor-fundrai/

Ned Raggett, Monday, 24 October 2016 22:19 (eight years ago)

holy crap when did the telegraph become a tabloid? boy, wow. just looking at that site made me feel all kinds of dirty.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Monday, 24 October 2016 22:22 (eight years ago)

Scott Adams: "Remind me how you do a scientific poll when 10% of Trump voters are literally hiding. (Big surprise coming, bullies.)"

"literally"

"hiding"

Remember when terrible newspaper comic artists were just faceless names that you'd see while skipping past them to get to Calvin & Hobbes?

Thanks, social media.

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Monday, 24 October 2016 22:25 (eight years ago)

more likely they're hiding from their moms who want them to start paying rent amirite

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 24 October 2016 22:29 (eight years ago)

remember when Scott Adams would go onto message boards to defend himself using a sockpuppet?

Neanderthal, Monday, 24 October 2016 23:10 (eight years ago)

Like Trump had John Barron? The master and the apprentice.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 24 October 2016 23:13 (eight years ago)

lol even the shitty LA Times/USC tracking poll moved to Clinton +1 today. Rasmussen is literally his last refuge

Neanderthal, Monday, 24 October 2016 23:14 (eight years ago)

today on going to the polls, I had to show a photo/signature ID, then attest that I was discarding my absentee ballot (cos I never got it), re-attest I was who I said I was, sign my name twice, have a second person check my ID before they gave me my ballot, and logged it all in a motherfuckin' computer

Neanderthal, Monday, 24 October 2016 23:16 (eight years ago)

Apparently Trump just hugged a flag at a rally. But he does that, I gather.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 24 October 2016 23:18 (eight years ago)

did he wash his hands afterwards

Οὖτις, Monday, 24 October 2016 23:18 (eight years ago)

Grab 'em by the flag!

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Monday, 24 October 2016 23:21 (eight years ago)

lol

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 24 October 2016 23:23 (eight years ago)

Anyway, some new early voter number crunching:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-the-election_b_12614284.html

Ned Raggett, Monday, 24 October 2016 23:27 (eight years ago)

And the scamming reverts to the mean:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/790641071948566528

Ned Raggett, Monday, 24 October 2016 23:35 (eight years ago)

dollars to donuts a portrait of trump is hanging over that donor wall after he loses

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Monday, 24 October 2016 23:39 (eight years ago)

Steve Schmidt, interviewed by Chris Hayes a fewminutes ago, said the Dems are making a "strategic error" by expanding the votes to down ballot races. Keep the race focused on Trump, the Dems will get 350-400 electoral votes; concentrate on expansion and they risk losing the inevitable Senate majority. I get the attraction of the Law of Unintended Consequences b/c that's how the cunning of history works, but Schmidt, in charge of McCain's 2008 campaign, sounds like he wants to keep...something in two weeks.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 00:15 (eight years ago)

XP There was an episode of the Dilbert animated series about office drones huffing fumes from dry erase markers, which leads me to the query: Mr. Adams, are you getting high on your own supply?

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 00:16 (eight years ago)

I've huffed plenty of dry erase fumes in my day and trust me, delusions of grandeur is not any of the things that happens

El Tomboto, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 00:37 (eight years ago)

holy crap when did the telegraph become a tabloid? boy, wow. just looking at that site made me feel all kinds of dirty.

― mystery local boy (rushomancy), Monday, October 24, 2016 6:22 PM (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

all UK non-guardian news websites are like that. they're the biggest newspaper sites in the world :(

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 00:54 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/JustinWolfers/status/790716010525552640
Clinton's campaign is paying $32/square foot for offices. Trump's campaign is paying about $100/sf. To Trump.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvkvarDUMAAsdzP.jpg:large

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 00:55 (eight years ago)

I wouldn't call this *the* oppo dump but I suspect some groundwork is being prepared:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/24/inside-donald-trump-s-one-stop-parties-attendees-recall-cocaine-and-very-young-models.html

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 01:23 (eight years ago)

yeah but he's a teetotaler and hates drugs

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 01:26 (eight years ago)

but he loves two corinthians

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 01:29 (eight years ago)

At once.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 01:31 (eight years ago)

you're welcome

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 01:33 (eight years ago)

I thought he only like Corinthians for their leather

EZ Snappin, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 01:34 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CviumVBWEAACbxP.jpg:large

Mordy, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 01:36 (eight years ago)

man I can't wait to see that guy on the side of the road with a burlap sack

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 01:37 (eight years ago)

Hope he dumps his whole 401k into Trump shares

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 01:39 (eight years ago)

i nearly barfed just now looking at a sample ballot and seeing

"DONALD J. TRUMP - President
MICHAEL R. PENCE - Vice President
Republican"

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 01:54 (eight years ago)

you'll be forgiven if you do that on your actual ballot

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 01:55 (eight years ago)

Voted today, hour long wait for first day of early voting in TX

6 god none the richer (m bison), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 02:14 (eight years ago)

yeah I early voted in Austin today and the wait was nuts, never had to wait longer than 5 mins before

erry red flag (f. hazel), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 02:36 (eight years ago)

musta been all those shy Trump voters

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 02:37 (eight years ago)

Oregon votes by mail exclusively. I got my ballot Saturday. I hope to fill it in tomorrow and drop it off at the public library ballot drop site.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 02:44 (eight years ago)

u should put a bird on it too

yolo mostly (sleepingbag), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 02:58 (eight years ago)

"I’m sorry, Ivanka, I really am, because your mother raised you well and I can’t blame you for supporting your father (even if he did give—at the least—his blessing when you were 15 and signed on as a model yourself with Elite, the hard-partying high-end agency founded by notorious teen-fucker John Casablancas) but here’s the sad truth: Your dad’s not a dog. He’s a pig."

FINALLY this election can have a strokes angle

maura, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 02:58 (eight years ago)

I only had to wait 15 minutes in DFW, but I've never early-voted before because I liked going on Election Day so maybe that's normal.

I would like to extrapolate from being one of only ~5 white people in line to vote that early voting is going very very badly for Trump.

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:06 (eight years ago)

Hmm, I guessed right, I think -- Wilson posted that Daily Beast story link, then added:

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/790737025972391936

That's the shot. Now wait for the chaser. It's worth it.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:07 (eight years ago)

Dem GOTV is pushing early voting hard everywhere it's an option

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:08 (eight years ago)

EARLY HARD VOTING is the name of my next EP

El Tomboto, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:09 (eight years ago)

I love that we've gotten to the point where people are recounting cocaine-fueled sex parties with underage models, and we're all, OK, so where's the bombshell?

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:22 (eight years ago)

That's why I'm REALLY interested. Wilson added in a follow-up whatever it is happens later this week.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:24 (eight years ago)

It's not a bombshell because everyone who's not delusional knows who Trump is - of course a rich asshole in '80s Manhattan was having coke-fueled sex parties. Who hasn't seen Wall Street/American Psycho/etc.?

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:26 (eight years ago)

This was the '90s, totally different.

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:27 (eight years ago)

I didn't have a chance to vote yet in Austin, but I did find this sweet early voting wait time hoonja doonja: http://www.ivoteearly.com/#WaitTimes

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:30 (eight years ago)

Have we talked about the handful of GOPers suing - threatening to sue? - over campaign ads linking them to Trump. From TPM::

In general, it's not uncommon for politicians to try to get unfair ads against them taken down. But, as Huffington Post notes, lawmakers usually aren't crying defamation over being linked to the presidential nominee of their own party/

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:32 (eight years ago)

Wilson says "later this week". sounds to me like more concrete evidence regarding epstein and underage girls is on the way.

akm, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:34 (eight years ago)

But ... but ... Bill Clinton!

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:36 (eight years ago)

Meantime this is hilarious, they should just run this as an official HRC ad

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/790726258275606528

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:36 (eight years ago)

you know, if there is some kind of documented video of trump with someone underage, and none of bill, it's not going to matter one bit

akm, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:38 (eight years ago)

Funny how another huge market crash and a black man being in charge turned him into himself

El Tomboto, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:41 (eight years ago)

This teased major story overlaps conspicuously with the in-progress underage rape story. It's gut churning and horrifying, but I somehow missed this detail-rich piece last summer: http://jezebel.com/heres-how-that-wild-lawsuit-accusing-trump-of-raping-a-1782447083

More details and updates here. http://ijr.com/2016/10/717180-a-woman-is-now-claiming-trump-raped-her-at-13-years-old-heres-what-you-need-to-know/

Besides an initial categoric denial, has Trump tweeted about this accuser at all? If not, that's pretty conspicuous. First hearing in December, reportedly.

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:50 (eight years ago)

you know, if there is some kind of documented video of trump with someone underage, and none of bill, it's not going to matter one bit

are you crazy? if there's some kind of documented video of trump with someone underage he's going to jail

Mordy, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:55 (eight years ago)

the statute of limitations may apply

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:55 (eight years ago)

No Limit

Many states do not have a statute of limitation in place for some forms of rape or all rape offenses. These states include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Delaware, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

Mordy, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:57 (eight years ago)

God help me, now I have 2 Unlimited in my head.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:57 (eight years ago)

INAL but NJ is on that list too

Mordy, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 03:58 (eight years ago)

^ post 1001

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:01 (eight years ago)

A Distaste Odyssey.

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:03 (eight years ago)

too bad the hillary campaign can't use that gushing donald trump video for advertising. being praised by trump at this pt would probably only do damage.

Mordy, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:19 (eight years ago)

They're finally reacting to McMullin:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/mike-pence-utah-republicans-mcmullin-230273

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:22 (eight years ago)

"c'mon pence you know you can do this weird gesture, just imagine you're gouging the eyes of that prick tim kaine, that's it"

6 god none the richer (m bison), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:27 (eight years ago)

all that fucking money -more than any of us will ever see, barring craziness- and Jeb!'s campaign couldn't dig up any of this shit on the guy. Not even a hint. Didn't even think to try? Or didn't think it would matter? Or or or. It really is abject cowards and imbeciles all the way down.

El Tomboto, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:28 (eight years ago)

good lord trump might not only have taken down every "future star" of the GOP but also breitbart and hannity, if this story is that bad.

nomar, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:31 (eight years ago)

"I'm driving this clown car straight to the white house. No turning back now!"

Evan, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:33 (eight years ago)

xposts to Pence photo

Evan, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:34 (eight years ago)

xxxp - gentleman's agreement among the establishment hacks to not dig up real dirt on each other?

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:41 (eight years ago)

establishment GOP hacks on each other's candidates, that is

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:42 (eight years ago)

better they save it for the democrats to do?

Mordy, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 04:45 (eight years ago)

Trump wasn't an establishment GOP hack though.

nickn, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 06:56 (eight years ago)

The level of comedy on this thread is tremendous!

I mean, everyone is so instantly witty, so much of the time.

the pinefox, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 08:28 (eight years ago)

why can't you guys do that with your political catastrophe

j., Tuesday, 25 October 2016 08:35 (eight years ago)

It's nowhere near as funny, that's why.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 08:36 (eight years ago)

4-year-old friend of my son is drawing what looks like a giant squid

"that looks cool. what is it?"

"it's donald trump, losing"

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 08:59 (eight years ago)

:D

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 08:59 (eight years ago)

all that fucking money -more than any of us will ever see, barring craziness- and Jeb!'s campaign couldn't dig up any of this shit on the guy. Not even a hint. Didn't even think to try? Or didn't think it would matter? Or or or. It really is abject cowards and imbeciles all the way down.

Who was it on the last thread who was speculating about the scene at Walker's point in December?

It was something like, George HW: how can we take this guy down? Jeb: I've got no idea. George W: I dunno. Billy: Ummm... Nope! I got nothin.

Say what you will about Clinton's weaknesses as a candidate and many personal vulnerabilities. But there are some extremely media-savvy and extremely ruthless motherfuckers helping her out every step of the way.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 09:11 (eight years ago)

Oh, found it, it was caek hat-tipping @willrahn

https://twitter.com/willrahn/status/784501181464846340

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 09:28 (eight years ago)

Worth remembering that the worst shit to come out against Trump has, to anyone's knowledge, *not* come from the Clinton camp. Access Hollywood clip, steady stream of accusers, tax dodge stuff and Trump Foundation sketchiness - those have been independent leaks and/or the work of investigative journalism, and by far those have been the most damaging to Trump this entire campaign. Clinton was trying to campaign on policy, and contrast her ideas with Donald's, and that not surprisingly was getting her nowhere, which perhaps explains why he seemed to be doing relatively well (all things considered) up through at least August or September. Even her ads have largely been built around bullshit he has said, not things her campaign dug up somewhere. Usually those sorts of "gotcha" clips come from research, but Trump has just been setting them up, one after the other. If Clinton indeed ever had a trove of oppo, I get the impression she's never felt the need to use it.

I take that back - the Miss Universe stuff, that was pretty damaging, and seemed to be the sole thing she invoked this cycle that took him by surprise.

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 11:46 (eight years ago)

Gender stuff means that any attempts to actually be nasty can backfire in her face - it's safer just to set up rakes (EG Khizr Khan) and watch him stumble into them.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 11:58 (eight years ago)

all that fucking money -more than any of us will ever see, barring craziness- and Jeb!'s campaign couldn't dig up any of this shit on the guy. Not even a hint. Didn't even think to try? Or didn't think it would matter? Or or or. It really is abject cowards and imbeciles all the way down.

they were clearly more interested in taking his base of voters once he inevitably lost or dropped out (lol) so they were careful not to hurt him too badly

frogbs, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 12:40 (eight years ago)

Well, I think Jeb's probably clear of that - he was probably just unwilling to get down in it.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 12:51 (eight years ago)

"are you crazy? if there's some kind of documented video of trump with someone underage he's going to jail"

I mean rumors about Bill Clinton won't matter if there is video evidence of Trump (but not him)

akm, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 13:41 (eight years ago)

@reidepstein
Trump: "All of my employees are having a tremendous problem with Obamacare."

mookieproof, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:14 (eight years ago)

Trying to imagine what Trumpcare would be like.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:17 (eight years ago)

Lowe and Kelly didnt go to jail, why do u think trump would

Xp

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:18 (eight years ago)

Trying to imagine what Trumpcare would be like.

― Ned Raggett,

You go to the doctor, Trump is the doctor, he assaults you.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:19 (eight years ago)

Not reassuring.

Meanwhile, I can't figure out who is conning who more here:

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/790724596806852608

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:20 (eight years ago)

There's only one way to con

Evan, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:22 (eight years ago)

The doctor invites you into his office and asks you to have a seat. He sits behind his desk and tells you in the vaguest possible terms how he's going to make you better, that you're going to feel so good when he's done that your head will spin, believe him. He's gonna knock the hell out of your ailment, it's true. He gets up and leaves the room and that's the last you see of him.

Then Trump comes in and assaults you.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:23 (eight years ago)

OK you're having too much fun

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:24 (eight years ago)

A man walks into the doctor's office. "I've got some good news and some bad news," says the doctor.
"OK," says the man, "what's the bad news?"
"You're Donald Trump," says the doctor.
"Wow," says the man. "So what's the good news?"
"It'll all be over soon."

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:30 (eight years ago)

q: how do you know you've got donald trump fever?
a: your skin turns orange, shit comes out your mouth and you capsize a major political party's aspirations for a generation

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:32 (eight years ago)

"But I AM Pagliacci."

"No I meant the other clown."

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:33 (eight years ago)

No, no, you misunderstand. 'Grab 'Em By the Pussy' is the name of my dog.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:34 (eight years ago)

Jonah Goldberg's opening joke at the next NRO cruise: "A Democrat, a Republican and a deplorable walk into a bar, and Donald Trump says, "I'll have what I'm having!" Boom boom!" (The crowd is unamused.)

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:37 (eight years ago)

Knock knock
Who's there?
Trump is a puppet of Putin.
Trump is a puppet of Putin wh..
WRONG. You're the puppet. Such a nasty woman.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:39 (eight years ago)

Some less jokey LOLs:

Rasmussen now has Clinton with a lead. No National polls have him ahead, tracking or otherwise.

A new poll came out with him down 7 in NC.

YOWCH

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:39 (eight years ago)

No, no, you misunderstand. 'Grab 'Em By the Pussy' is the name of my dog.

And that dog was the best fuck Trump ever had.

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:40 (eight years ago)

Scott Adams finally endorses Trump for good, because he's mad that too many people are calling out his terrible opinions

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152293480726/the-bully-party

something tells me the timing couldn't be worse :)

frogbs, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:40 (eight years ago)

As I often say, I don’t know who has the best policies. I don’t know the best way to fight ISIS and I don’t know how to fix healthcare or trade deals. I don’t know which tax policies are best to lift the economy. I don’t know the best way to handle any of that stuff. (And neither do you.) But I do have a bad reaction to bullies. And I’ve reached my limit.

I hope you have too. Therefore…

I endorse Donald Trump for President of the United States because I oppose bullying in all its forms.

bold in the original

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:43 (eight years ago)

Meanwhile Florida looks bleaker for him.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:45 (eight years ago)

Mayors to Trump: Enough with the hellhole talk already

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:46 (eight years ago)

popcorn.gif

sleeve, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:46 (eight years ago)

i am pretty excited to see how scott adams, the world's smartest dumb guy, is going to rationalise trump's loss

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:49 (eight years ago)

every sentence of that is a head scratcher but holy shit at this one:

I don’t defend Trump’s personal life. Neither Trump nor Clinton are role models for our children. Let’s call that a tie, at worst.

frogbs, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:52 (eight years ago)

Saying that you'll vote for the living personification of bullying because you're against bullying is top-tier trolling.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:56 (eight years ago)

i keep seeing this line parroted among right wingers "the slowest economic recovery since WWII" "worst economic recovery since the 40s", like does that even resonate w/ anyone? it's a recovery, it's happening. "worst recovery" is just so clumsy

marcos, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 14:58 (eight years ago)

That line resonates with people who focus on "worst" rather than "recovery" which is a lot of people, mostly because everyone loves looking for a scapegoat.

¶ (DJP), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:04 (eight years ago)

Saying that you'll vote for the living personification of bullying because you're against bullying is top-tier trolling.

― the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Tuesday, October 25, 2016 10:56 AM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

When these people watch Back to the Future in 2016 for example, are they legitimately confused about the Biff character and his role in the story?

Evan, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:06 (eight years ago)

makes sense that the "bombshell" supposedly coming later this week is apparently further corroboration of trump's activities with epstein, since it's been pushed hard by a couple of nevertrump gop strategists. i assume they're hoping the association will tarnish bill clinton as well, even if his name is never directly mentioned.

apologies if that's been hashed out already, these threads are enormous

he mea ole, he kanaka lapuwale (sciatica), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:08 (eight years ago)

Saying that you'll vote for the living personification of bullying because you're against bullying is top-tier trolling.

― the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Tuesday, October 25, 2016 10:56 AM

well, Hispanics and blacks are the real racists, see

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:08 (eight years ago)

xps also tailor-made for trump since it manages to make a grievance out of the truth: wouldn't you expect that the worst disaster since the depression might have the slowest recovery since then too???!

j., Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:08 (eight years ago)

The Scott Adams piece is genuinely indistinguishable from a Scott Adams parody on The Onion. What does he think he's doing with the bold bits? Isn't he supposed to be a professional writer, of a sort?

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:13 (eight years ago)

lol Evan

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:22 (eight years ago)

I saw masks at a store, one labeled "Hilary Clinton" the other labeled "The Candidate"; there was also a wig named the "Comb-Over Candidate". Not sure if they can name her because she's a public figure or they didn't name him because they know they'd get sued.

joygoat, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:27 (eight years ago)

Sexy Undecided Pizza Costume.

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:46 (eight years ago)

the latter, almost certainly

jason waterfalls (gbx), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:46 (eight years ago)

Rasmussen now has Clinton up by 1%

(•̪●) (carne asada), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:48 (eight years ago)

Running out of cherries to pick!

Evan, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:48 (eight years ago)

I liked Weigel's take:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/790905585252249604

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 15:55 (eight years ago)

I endorse Donald Trump for President of the United States because I oppose bullying in all its forms.

Who was it, Corey Robin? wrote something about how reactionaries have a history of glomming onto leftie language and inverting it. Which is sorta the history of these things for 5 decades.

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:07 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S3zSfUc-PaE

maura, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:10 (eight years ago)

i mean that's literally the republican party in a nutshell

maura, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:10 (eight years ago)

i think i said it elsewhere but the republican party can also be summed up by lewandowski roughly grabbing the arm of a woman and pulling her back and being all "what i didn't do anything" and then later on a CNN panel, a woman mildly patting his hand and him whining "don't touch me!"

nomar, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:15 (eight years ago)

this looks fun
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/26/us/politics/donald-trump-interviews.html

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:16 (eight years ago)

He is intoxicated by the glow of his name in the news media, a subject he brings up repeatedly in the interviews.

He can still recall the thrill of a newspaper mentioning his name for the first time, as a high school baseball player whose performance had clinched his team’s victory.

MR. TRUMP: And I said, “I love it.” I loved it. It was the first time I was ever in a newspaper. I was a young kid, right? I was probably a sophomore in high school. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that. I thought it was amazing. … It felt good.

He was hooked. But it was not enough for Mr. Trump to become an object of media fascination. He took pleasure in knowing that such coverage was denied to almost everybody else.

When Mr. D’Antonio said that it was exciting for anybody to be mentioned in a newspaper, a seemingly wounded Mr. Trump interrupted to explain why his experience was special.

“Well, most people aren’t in print, though. Don’t forget. How many people are in print?” he asked. “Nobody’s in print.”

Mr. Trump refused to let the subject go, emphasizing over and over how unique it was that he had been mentioned in the newspaper.

nomar, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:20 (eight years ago)

TBF, I've only ever seen like two or three names other than Trump's in print.

This fragile little boy with the quivering lip inside the corpulent body of a vengeful, overly-rouged sex offender was almost president. Never forget, 9/11.

the most corrupt, deceitful, lying, caniving, treasonist, POS (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:25 (eight years ago)

Wow, more than double 2012 turnout numbers in Travis County, woot!

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:32 (eight years ago)

obamacare and the economic recovery might be better if 1/2 of the government wasnt actively engaged in trying to destroy both

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:32 (eight years ago)

Liz Mair ‏@LizMair 8h8 hours ago
Quick update: No, the cocaine-fueled underage model sex parties story re: Trump is NOT one of the two devastating ones I expected to drop...

Liz Mair ‏@LizMair 8h8 hours ago
...however, one of those may now not come out in view of Trump's threats to sue. Cost of someone violating a Trump NDA just went way up.

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:35 (eight years ago)

Bummer

flappy bird, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:37 (eight years ago)

Hopefully the other hypothetical one comes through

Evan, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:43 (eight years ago)

Sad!

frogbs, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:44 (eight years ago)

trump's insane valuation of his brand also might make it hard to want to break an nda - he can claim his reputation was damaged and is entitled to a fraction of the million billion dollars he thinks hes worth

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:47 (eight years ago)

I'd say that people need to start calling Trump's bluff and actually let these dumb lawsuits go to trial if only to keep him tied up in court and slowly drain his coffers but you know Thiel would be in like a flash to supply the $$$ that Trump only pretends to have. So cool that he's forming his own Legion of Doom.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:48 (eight years ago)

The cocaine parties story is not getting any traction either because there isn't any strong evidence. If only something came out to corroborate it. Hope it does.

Evan, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:49 (eight years ago)

Texas early voting results are pretty notable:

https://www.texastribune.org/2016/10/25/early-voting-breaking-records-texas-10-biggest-cou/?utm_campaign=trib-social&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=1477408643

― Ned Raggett, Tuesday, October 25, 2016 4:00 PM (forty-seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

if trump unleashed the latino beast and turnout is massive the polls are going to look wrong as fuck since theyre based on turnout of previous elections

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 16:49 (eight years ago)

is there any way to parse the significance of early Texas voting? like are the areas heavily latino areas or could it just be that everyone is pretty fired up atm - trump and anti-trump voters alike?

Mordy, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:00 (eight years ago)

These two tweets will help:

https://twitter.com/stuartpstevens/status/790939192289325056

https://twitter.com/stuartpstevens/status/790940725496119296

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:14 (eight years ago)

I'd love to think that everyone feeling fired up to decisively crush Trump's chances ASAP + the possibility of gun-wielding tweakers hovering over your shoulder if you wait two weeks to vote will pretty much seal this thing up before the 9th even arrives.

I'm pretty sure I'm gonna be voting early for the first time ever this year.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:14 (eight years ago)

Meantime. And this is from someone who supports him!

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/mike-mccaul-trump-russia-hacks-230286

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:15 (eight years ago)

I'd love to think that everyone feeling fired up to decisively crush Trump's chances ASAP + the possibility of gun-wielding tweakers hovering over your shoulder if you wait two weeks to vote will pretty much seal this thing up before the 9th even arrives.

Yeah on a structural level this has been one of the more notable things about the GOP/Trump campaign approach -- tied in with the whole GOTV etc. etc. HRC advantage, there seems to have been little or no push to either drive or acknowledge how much early voting can be a factor on the other side. Obviously Election Day will still be when the majority of voters DO vote, but the numbers for early/absentee keep ramping up and as you say, Trump's ridiculous threats about the day itself are probably leading a lot of people to go "Pfft, okay" and just be done with it. (On top of the sheer 'just get it OVER with' also at play.)

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:19 (eight years ago)

Elections Project reporting that early votes now total 9,436,782; I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 10 million by the end of the day.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

Sam Kriss in his usual cheerfulness bringing in the industry of Nasty Woman tshirts and dialectical candidates:

American politics is one vast crisis of semiotic overproduction: too much meaning is produced in any one moment for anyone to possibly consume, too many talking points, too many sober interpretations of outbursts and body language. The exchange-value of scandals and slogans is continually worn down; the rate of profit falls. It doesn’t matter who the candidates are: the process is sovereign, the churning transformation of useful meaning into garbage. And the T-shirts will see the same fate. You buy your “Nasty Woman” shirt, you wear it once, and then the media cycle spins off somewhere else, and you’re left with an object from which all signification has evaporated. Throw it away; add it to America’s vast reserves of rejectamenta, buried underground where nobody will ever see it again

Has some good lines:

Ted Cruz, the queasily libidinal deep-sea creature; Jeb Bush, the last inbred flapping scion to the American Habsburgs; Marco Rubio, the depthless hologram that still manages to leave a trail of slime in its wake

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

t-shirts are among the few items that i save tho. either bc i dig them out periodically to wear again or so my kids can dig through them and see the weird bands i've seen (or my 2008 obama t-shirt) or ultimately their fate is a t-shirt quilt which can be a fun thing to have around.

Mordy, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:32 (eight years ago)

Huh, you just reminded me that I'm pretty sure I had an Obama shirt back in 2007/8, but I have no idea where it went. WHERE DID IT GO!?!

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:39 (eight years ago)

Sam Kriss in his usual cheerfulness bringing in the industry of Nasty Woman tshirts and dialectical candidates

― (rocketcat)

next time someone asks why clinton doesn't zing, i'll just point them there. christ save us from people who learned how to zing from mark e. smith.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:41 (eight years ago)

i found a never worn, light blue obama 08 fairey tshirt last month. i bought it when dem convention was in denver, to send to someone. never got around to it, and now, welp. xp

wishy washy hippy variety hour (Hunt3r), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:56 (eight years ago)

BTW, if you want to dive down the wormhole to an insane degree about something, have fun:

http://www.redstate.com/patterico/2016/10/25/dirty-democrat-tricksters-exposed-james-okeefe-tied-donald-trumps-campaign/

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 17:57 (eight years ago)

The cocaine parties story is not getting any traction either because there isn't any strong evidence. If only something came out to corroborate it. Hope it does.

i'm thinking the "chaser" must be physical evidence like photographs, or video, or a receipt from an abortion clinic for an underage girl signed by mr. trump. if you follow the metaphor it doesn't make sense that the chaser would be more importantly than the hard drink that it's chasing but now that he's a pseudo part of the mormon campaign maybe his drinking metaphors are getting screwy too.

Mordy, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:00 (eight years ago)

thread serves as a good reminder to break out my ODB FOR PRESIDENT shirt again

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:03 (eight years ago)

Trump talking about dead birds in California. Of course!

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/790978393449885697

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:12 (eight years ago)

The cocaine parties story is not getting any traction either because there isn't any strong evidence. If only something came out to corroborate it. Hope it does.

i'm thinking the "chaser" must be physical evidence like photographs, or video, or a receipt from an abortion clinic for an underage girl signed by mr. trump. if you follow the metaphor it doesn't make sense that the chaser would be more importantly than the hard drink that it's chasing but now that he's a pseudo part of the mormon campaign maybe his drinking metaphors are getting screwy too.

― Mordy, Tuesday, October 25, 2016 2:00 PM (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

For sure, there's no way that anything less than irrefutable physical evidence supplementary to that story will have the impact both proportionate to the cumulative tease and also devastating enough to make a dent in the MSM news cycle the way the ET tapes did. And among that, audio + video is the only form that is least likely to be called fake. So it's a high bar...

Evan, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:14 (eight years ago)

Thankfully Politifact did a thing about that when he went off about it a couple months ago. It still seems like we still need to find a way to further reduce eagle deaths, but this puts it all in perspective.

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/may/31/donald-trump/trump-exaggerates-wind-turbine-eagle-deaths/

xp

how's life, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:19 (eight years ago)

NYTimes needs to update their insult chart

"Wind -- very problematic!!!"

nomar, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:20 (eight years ago)

Make the turbine blades the same colour as Trump's hair tbafh

imago, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:23 (eight years ago)

It still seems like we still need to find a way to further reduce eagle deaths

"Too late for meeeeeeeeeee!"

http://www.thewrap.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Glenn-Frey-dead.jpg

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:27 (eight years ago)

lol

how's life, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:31 (eight years ago)

Surrender increasingly obvious:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/republican-candidates-hillary-clinton-230270

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:33 (eight years ago)

they gave herman cain a radio show? jesus christ

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:40 (eight years ago)

Getting your own show is half the reason these assholes run for office nowadays

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:41 (eight years ago)

Does he play "Imagine (There Was No Pizza)" every show? Asking for a friend.

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:42 (eight years ago)

Listen to Herman Cain's Deep Dish every Thursday at 3:15 AM on AM 1570.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:42 (eight years ago)

poor lil marco

https://t.co/kHIEFDJUwG

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:46 (eight years ago)

An 81 percent majority of Americans say they wish this election were over, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov poll, with just 12 percent saying they’re enjoying watching things play out. More than three-quarters of people in both parties say they’re ready to move on.

12% of americans are masochists

Mordy, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:55 (eight years ago)

Watched the first ever episode of Black Mirror last night and, no spoilers, it reminded me a lot of this election. And, yes, some people enjoy bearing witness to any depraved spectacle.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 18:58 (eight years ago)

just 12 percent saying they’re enjoying watching things play out

when was this ILX poll taken?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 19:04 (eight years ago)

xp the season 2 episode "the waldo moment" is prob considerably more apt for this election

i've watched a lot of cats do weird and interesting things (slothroprhymes), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 19:25 (eight years ago)

So apparently this guy was driving around an Austin, TX polling place yelling at voters, was asked to leave by an election official and the police had to be called.

https://twitter.com/AmandaMarcotte/status/790997839153422336

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 19:33 (eight years ago)

I expect a fair amount of this crap

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 19:38 (eight years ago)

Followed by a lot of this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BA3JUpQzOek

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 19:39 (eight years ago)

lol yes

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 19:39 (eight years ago)

In lieu of the impossible task of holding Trump somehow legally liable for urging this kind of behavior, can we maybe arrange for someone to, oh I don't know, maybe sew his asshole shut and keep feeding him and feeding him and feeding him?

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 19:40 (eight years ago)

From that Marco link, this is coverage I like to read:

'"Ladies and gentlemen, the senator for the state of Florida, a Latino like you and me ... his name is Marco Rubio! Applaud!"

Instead, the boos rained down on the senator...

[...]

Then he left the stage, to more boos.'

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 19:41 (eight years ago)

i tihnk they were just saying "roooooo-beeeeee---oooooo"

marcos, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 19:44 (eight years ago)

to the tune of "It's Gonna Be a Beautiful Night."

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 19:51 (eight years ago)

Boo-bioooo

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

Oops!

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/791005863268016128

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:03 (eight years ago)

so apparently Trump tweeted something about Mosul, Clinton responded that she was "appalled" by his tweet?

sleeve, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:05 (eight years ago)

website blacks for trump sign points to is very special.

dan selzer, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:13 (eight years ago)

I just got done early voting and had to wait in line for about ten minutes. The woman In Charge told me that it had been a very steady stream all day.

I cannot wait for this stupid shitshow to be over with.

Brevs Mekis (dandydonweiner), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:17 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cvo7xWSXEAA84n3.jpg

camo hat is a new one to me. also this is taking place in sanford, florida

mookieproof, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:20 (eight years ago)

BTW, on the ballot it was "Donald J. Trump" vs. "Hillary Clinton".

She hasn't thrown the old Rodham out there in awhile I guess.

Brevs Mekis (dandydonweiner), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:22 (eight years ago)

The bullies have become the bullied, the deeply stupid have become just the smartest people, believe me, Blacks for Trump are actually Whites for Trump.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:23 (eight years ago)

also some LGBTQs 4 Trump there

mookieproof, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:25 (eight years ago)

camo hat is a new one to me.

He's trying to gradually fade away, in order to be gone by Nov 9.

nickn, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:36 (eight years ago)

heh, i just got the barry crimmins' standup special that louis ck directed and watched it last night; crimmins notes that the problem with camo is that it makes you stand out and that he'd be a huge fan of camo if it only worked so he didn't have to see all these assholes wearing fatigues in the suburbs.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:38 (eight years ago)

trump tweeted that Mosul was a complete disaster the other morning. despite all signs of it being a success, so far, as far as those things go

akm, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:39 (eight years ago)

So Putin isn't happy about Mosul then?

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:43 (eight years ago)

don't think Trump regularly trash talking our military is getting enough play here

frogbs, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 20:53 (eight years ago)

lol

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvUtf8pUEAAF5cl.jpg

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 21:17 (eight years ago)

hmm kinda blurry

her shirt says "Latinos Contra Trump"

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 21:18 (eight years ago)

NeverTrump rightwing Twitter already in full HAWHAW mode over that.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 21:27 (eight years ago)

I may never stop lolling about "Blacks For Trump"

¶ (DJP), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 21:28 (eight years ago)

Jack...Karen....Frank

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 21:48 (eight years ago)

Meantime, Scott Adams everyone!

https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/791022440377782272

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 21:48 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/djperry1973/status/791034126954483712

¶ (DJP), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 21:51 (eight years ago)

"expect better from someone who created Dilbert" made me bitterly lol

Foster Twelvetrees (Ward Fowler), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:02 (eight years ago)

hard to resist trolling that account

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:04 (eight years ago)

Scott Adams ‏@ScottAdamsSays 3m3 minutes ago
See the coordinated Twitter attacks on my sanity. All the same message. Means I hit a nerve.

He thinks it's coordinated?

jmm, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:08 (eight years ago)

If only the Catbert in his head told him what Hegel's Bluff was

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:14 (eight years ago)

He thinks it's coordinated?

Yeah, he's one of those people who thinks the Clinton campaign a) gives a shit about him and b) is actively sending online surrogates to attack him on Twitter.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:14 (eight years ago)

Part of me still thinks he thinks he's being funny.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:15 (eight years ago)

hoo boy

¶ (DJP), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:17 (eight years ago)

well, he is being funny

frogbs, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:24 (eight years ago)

the part that bothers me is that apparently you can get paid for trolling Dilbert man? why haven't I gotten a check yet?

frogbs, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:25 (eight years ago)

Starting to feel, as with Trump, that money is the only thing keeping Adams from issuing his paranoid rants to trash cans and park benches.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:38 (eight years ago)

man how awesome would it be if Trump spent the remainder of his days penniless, wandering the streets of New York, babbling to himself

"this trashcan has the best garbage, you won't believe it, it's unbelievable this trashcan. the greatest trashcan ever"

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:40 (eight years ago)

Honestly quite nice

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/791049564052533249

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 22:55 (eight years ago)

Related: whatever you think of Wolf Blitzer, he just appealed to Kellyanne Conway for Trump to stop harassing reporters at the rallies and turning the crowd against them. He seemed sincerely troubled by this.

clemenza, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 23:02 (eight years ago)

trump's real enemy is the truth, taking out his anger on reporters is pretty unfair

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 23:12 (eight years ago)

Trump does the media-bashing thing because it whips up the type of crowds he attracts and he'll keep doing it for the same reason. He loves that sort of power to incite an audience and the feedback is immediate and gratifying.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 23:15 (eight years ago)

It's been going on since at least Goldwater (people shaking their fists in the direction of the press box at the convention)--Agnew, Buchanan, Palin, etc. Trump does seem especially hostile. Pretty funny considering his love affair with the Sunday morning shows through the nomination.

clemenza, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 23:22 (eight years ago)

some new polls came out today from the conservative Remington polling group. some of their results were quite laughable (such as showing a 3 point Trump lead in NC while every other pollster shows a Clinton lead of 3 - 7 points) but they still had Clinton ahead in most battleground states. lolz.

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 23:41 (eight years ago)

my friends all thought Adams was joking today until they saw the context

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 23:42 (eight years ago)

its easy to maintain your fragile shell of bullshit lies and nonsense if you incessantly try to discredit the arbiter of truth for the rest of the populace.. and I use the term 'truth' loosely.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 25 October 2016 23:45 (eight years ago)

so we're bullies now? I thought we were liberal weenies. when did we stop being weenies

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 25 October 2016 23:48 (eight years ago)

Bullies With Weenies

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 00:15 (eight years ago)

bullies with weeniefly wings

j., Wednesday, 26 October 2016 00:32 (eight years ago)

where is the trump snuff film, c'mon damnit, if wilson teased us like this and we get nothing I'm gonna be bummed

akm, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 01:00 (eight years ago)

please be careful what you wish for

El Tomboto, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 02:07 (eight years ago)

what if Trump really liked Stereolab

flappy bird, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 02:30 (eight years ago)

Guys, the term is "crybullies."

SJWs get their feeeewings hurt. The SJWs then use their stranglehold on elite institutions (media, government, academia) to enforce compliance with their new Speech Codes in which the Thoughtcrime of being Conservative is outlawed forever.

The new image of tyranny is like this: a disabled gay person of color's ballet slipper, stomping on a human face, forever.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 02:34 (eight years ago)

early or late stereolab

mookieproof, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 02:58 (eight years ago)

Uh, so apparently Newt and Megyn had some...fun tonight.

https://twitter.com/CurtisHouck/status/791090355248762880

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:01 (eight years ago)

xp def late Stereolab... his favorite is Cobra and Phases

flappy bird, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:01 (eight years ago)

Megyn Kelly is....good?

frogbs, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:07 (eight years ago)

Sliding scale.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:09 (eight years ago)

trump's favorite Stereolab song is "Neon Beanbag"

nomar, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:11 (eight years ago)

damn sleeper agent megyn kelly activated

nomar, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:11 (eight years ago)

Megyn Kelly has always been occasionally not entirely a jackass at her job

El Tomboto, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:12 (eight years ago)

thought the 538 podcast doc on perot was good - esp if like me you were only ~8yo in 1992

Mordy, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:12 (eight years ago)

although the job, at that network, is "just be right twice a day"
thus the cosmological amazingness of Shep Smith - the stopped clock that somehow exceeds that measure

El Tomboto, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:14 (eight years ago)

perot podcast was super good (i was 8 in 1992 too)

Allen (etaeoe), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:14 (eight years ago)

ugh, this thread is causing me to Trumpify Stereolab lyrics in my head

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:16 (eight years ago)

I laughed super duper loud at the end of that Kelly/Gingrich clip.

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:19 (eight years ago)

Mike Huckabee, everyone!

https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/status/791115766145908736

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:28 (eight years ago)

xp lol me too

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:28 (eight years ago)

1992 was the first election I voted in. My memories of Perot were totally hazy, though, so I appreciated the refresher on how bonkers that whole thing was.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:31 (eight years ago)

ugh, this thread is causing me to Trumpify Stereolab lyrics in my head

― Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, October 25, 2016 11:16 PM (seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

xp lol me too

― The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Tuesday, October 25, 2016 11:28 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

hell yeah

flappy bird, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:32 (eight years ago)

If there's been a way to build it
We'll make Mexico pay for it
Things are not all that out of control

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:33 (eight years ago)

The mainstreaming of Megyn Kelly has been a gradual move over the years because she's always got one eye on the exit door at Fox, but this issue is of particular interest to her because both Ailes and Trump have targeted her in different ways.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 03:35 (eight years ago)

In response to Huckabee's tweet.

Nate Bethea ‏@inthesedeserts 36m36 minutes ago
@GovMikeHuckabee Did the corpse of a battered dog endorse your enormous and loathsome son

nickn, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 04:00 (eight years ago)

Mm, wonder why.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-transition-idUSKCN12P2ZS

Trailing in opinion polls, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has asked his campaign to cut back on work identifying candidates for key jobs in his would-be administration and focus instead on bolstering his chances on Election Day, according to two people familiar with the campaign's inner workings.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 04:00 (eight years ago)

Hannity, master of memes. Uh.

https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/791130434629431296

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 04:35 (eight years ago)

I missed being old enough to vote for McGovern and against Nixon by one freaking day so by the time I could participate in a presidential year it was Ford vs Carter and a real step down in terms of enthusiasm.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 04:39 (eight years ago)

Megyn Kelly clip is close but not quite as good as the CNN anchor's head tilt with the "polls, what polls" "all of them?!" exchange.

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 04:42 (eight years ago)

Whoa, Bill Sienkiwicz is still out there, still sluggin'

https://mobile.twitter.com/sinKEVitch/status/790960627825074176

Bill Sienkiewicz
Bill Sienkiewicz‏ @sinKEVitch

My cover for this week's @villagevoice,(w thanks to @ahortonart) Featuring @therealdonald_:Human baked potato,Professional 1st grader, Loser

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 06:42 (eight years ago)

Dammit, can somebody paste the image URL for that cover in here?

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 06:43 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvoLj6CVYAAcu-E.jpg

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 06:46 (eight years ago)

The mainstreaming of Megyn Kelly has been a gradual move over the years because she's always got one eye on the exit door at Fox, but this issue is of particular interest to her because both Ailes and Trump have targeted her in different ways.

Yeah, she has kinda a history of being horrible to women on her show then flipping around when some schmuck targets her for the same thing, like when she suddenly found maternity leave to be a good thing once she needed it.

http://gawker.com/5828842/megyn-kelly-destroys-guy-who-called-her-maternity-leave-a-racket

Who knows, maybe enough exposure in the sewer that is that network was enough to change her ways

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 06:47 (eight years ago)

Xp

Thanks Andrew

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 06:48 (eight years ago)

Hadn't seen this on here before: Trump summons Richard Branson to lunch in order to rant about how he's going to destroy five people.

https://www.virgin.com/richard-branson/meeting-donald-trump

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 06:48 (eight years ago)

xp np

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 06:48 (eight years ago)

where is the trump snuff film, c'mon damnit, if wilson teased us like this and we get nothing I'm gonna be bummed

It's the only reason I'm still paying attention to this. Hate that Wilson guy.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 08:12 (eight years ago)

what if Trump really liked Stereolab

― flappy bird

any talk about rush limbaugh apparently deciding last week that caribou was his new favorite band (and dan snaith immediately telling him to "fuck off")?

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 08:36 (eight years ago)

We got to keep the lift, hope and struggle
It's the best lift, you wouldn't believe this struggle
When you're a star they don't even struggle

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 08:56 (eight years ago)

Megyn Kelly clip is close but not quite as good as the CNN anchor's head tilt with the "polls, what polls" "all of them?!" exchange.

http://therightscoop.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/megyn-kelly-newt-gingrich-3rwer.jpeg

clemenza, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 11:28 (eight years ago)

1992 was the first election I voted in. My memories of Perot were totally hazy, though, so I appreciated the refresher on how bonkers that whole thing was.

― Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Wednesday, October 26, 2016 3:31 AM (eight hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It was the 2nd election I voted in but the first one I covered as a reporter. I went to a Perot rally in western NY and iirc it was an interesting contrast to what you hear about Trump rallies this year (I haven't been to one of those). The similarity was a lot of people who hadn't been much engaged in politics finally finding a candidate they trusted, who was "telling it like it is." The difference was that I don't remember a whole lot of anger or bigotry, it was more like generic disgust/distrust of "the system" and "professional politicians," and a sense that here was this plain-talkin' problem solver who was just gonna fix it. Perot's infomercials weren't at all hateful, they were just goofy. One of my roommates at the time -- an Ivy League grad with a business degree -- voted for Ross because he basically trusted anyone who had made a billion dollars.

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 12:15 (eight years ago)

Yeah, she has kinda a history of being horrible to women on her show then flipping around when some schmuck targets her for the same thing, like when she suddenly found maternity leave to be a good thing once she needed it.

yeah she's been pretty gross her whole career. this newfound "integrity" she's cultivated seems to be a direct result of the fact that she *personally* feels attacked by Trump & his internet thugs. like, I'm really sorry that happened to you (really!), but you're still a fucking asshole.

acerbic (sic)s (will), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:01 (eight years ago)

and yeah, I suspect she sees the writing on the wall for Fox in its current incarnation and wants to make sure she has somewhere soft to land.

acerbic (sic)s (will), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:03 (eight years ago)

Chinaaaaaaaaa (apologies if already posted)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/24/exclusive-investigation-donald-trump-faces-foreign-donor-fundrai/

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:04 (eight years ago)

if there's another oppo dump coming, they might as well get it over with. early voting is going to render lots of impact irrelevant soon.

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:09 (eight years ago)

I suspect anything left would be dropped on the first.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:14 (eight years ago)

if there's another oppo dump coming, they might as well get it over with. early voting is going to render lots of impact irrelevant soon.

― Neanderthal

maybe, but people likely to be swayed by oppo probably aren't early voting, right?

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:15 (eight years ago)

Yeah, she has kinda a history of being horrible to women on her show then flipping around when some schmuck targets her for the same thing, like when she suddenly found maternity leave to be a good thing once she needed it.

yeah she's been pretty gross her whole career. this newfound "integrity" she's cultivated seems to be a direct result of the fact that she *personally* feels attacked by Trump & his internet thugs. like, I'm really sorry that happened to you (really!), but you're still a fucking asshole.

― acerbic (sic)s (will), Wednesday, October 26, 2016 9:01 AM (thirty-one minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

otm. kelly is bad. she might seem better when attacked by an asshole like gingrich or trump but that's only because they are such assholes. she is terrible.

marcos, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:34 (eight years ago)

i dont think the oppo dump is coming anymore

wilson dude is kind of annoying and i am eager to unfollow him on twitter

marcos, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:36 (eight years ago)

maybe he just used it as a lure to drum up attention for McMullen

akm, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:38 (eight years ago)

My favorite Megyn Kelly moment will always be the time when, in response to Karl Rove's meltdown at the 2012 election results in Ohio, she was sent into the bowels of Fox News to accost the Decision Desk.

¶ (DJP), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:40 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIQBYrATJDw

i <3 lonnie holley

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:44 (eight years ago)

I watched it live – one of the most awesome moments in modern TV.

xpost

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:44 (eight years ago)

Yeah, she has kinda a history of being horrible to women on her show then flipping around when some schmuck targets her for the same thing, like when she suddenly found maternity leave to be a good thing once she needed it.

This always feels like an essential aspect of conservatism though - fighting hard against something you truly believe to be awful until you find yourself in a situation where you personally would benefit from it.

joygoat, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:56 (eight years ago)

"It's great for me, but not for thee" is basically the theme of Conservative base..

One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 13:58 (eight years ago)

wilson dude is kind of annoying and i am eager to unfollow him on twitter

― marcos, Wednesday, October 26, 2016 6:36 AM (twenty minutes ago)

maybe he just used it as a lure to drum up attention for McMullen

― akm, Wednesday, October 26, 2016 6:38 AM (nineteen minutes ago)

Good lord, I don't follow him on Twitter, why subject yourself to that in your feed. Further (as I've said a few times already), the larger point is that he's not the only one who's been talking about these lurking stories (thus Mair quoted above, Erickson's hinted at it, etc.).

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:00 (eight years ago)

I'm grateful for this:

Tensions are flaring at the highest rungs of the Democratic Party over its decision to pull out of the Florida Senate race, with Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and Florida donors pressing to go all out to unseat Marco Rubio in the final days of the campaign, but New York Sen. Chuck Schumer and the party’s Senate campaign arm arguing it’s not feasible because of budget constraints.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee — under the direction of Schumer and its chairman, Montana Sen. Jon Tester — has redirected millions of dollars from Florida to North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. They reason that those states are both much cheaper to advertise in and offer a more promising path to the Senate majority than Florida, where Rubio has long been favored to defeat Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy...

...Many Democrats see things the other way. Reid is advocating that the party make an eleventh-hour re-entry into Florida, Democratic sources said. Barack Obama has also taken a keen interest in the race, traveling to Florida to knock Rubio last week. He’ll return Friday to visit Orlando.

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) has been pleading with former President Bill Clinton to get Democrats more interested in the Florida contest, sources familiar with the matter said. Bill Clinton himself believes Democrats gave up on the race prematurely and is urging Florida donors to support Murphy.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:03 (eight years ago)

the pullquote:

“I understand it’s not Chuck Schumer’s job to worry about presidential politics,” said Steve Schale, who managed Obama’s 2008 campaign in Florida. But “we’re all going to look a little dumb if Rubio wins by 80,000 votes and announces for president in two years.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/democrats-marco-rubio-florida-senate-230298#ixzz4OCSW9Xqz

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:04 (eight years ago)

yeah, it's pretty dumb if they are giving up at this point

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:06 (eight years ago)

if anything THIS is the Senate race the Dems need to win

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:11 (eight years ago)

This always feels like an essential aspect of conservatism though - fighting hard against something you truly believe to be awful until you find yourself in a situation where you personally would benefit from it.
― joygoat, Wednesday, October 26, 2016

the line, as i remember it, is "a conservative is a liberal who go a six figure job; a liberal is a conservative who went to prison"

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:16 (eight years ago)

Anyway

https://thenib.com/the-fall-of-dilbert

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:21 (eight years ago)

Good lord, I don't follow him on Twitter, why subject yourself to that in your feed. Further (as I've said a few times already), the larger point is that he's not the only one who's been talking about these lurking stories (thus Mair quoted above, Erickson's hinted at it, etc.).

― Ned Raggett

well, sure, ned, but just because lots of people are talking about something doesn't mean it's real. that's basically a textbook example of how gossip works. i would not be at all surprised if there was something to these unsubstantiated rumours, but playing twitter telephone isn't helping anybody. if rick wilson has something, then, you know, let's see it and judge it. if not, he should shut up already. damn.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:22 (eight years ago)

*shrug* He's said twice that whatever happens happens this week. If it does, hey. If not, vaporware and the final week plays out as it does. Mair's comment about one of the two stories being held up by someone unwilling to break an NDA is certainly the most concrete and understandable thing I've heard.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:24 (eight years ago)

Yeah I can see that with FL; if you have a path to 50-50 (and the Democrats do if they hold on to NV, and flip IL, WI, IN and NH - the first three of which look solid), then focus elsewhere on the guy you really need rid of (esp as, with redistricting, there are House pick-ups available in FL now too). Burr and Blunt probably aren't going anywhere in NC and MO. I'm just going by their names really.

Michael Jones, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:26 (eight years ago)

On the other hand, Rubio is a nincompoop. Perhaps, him going for the presidency in 2020 would just make it more chaotic, instead of everything being cleared for Paul Ryan. Personally I would 100% focus on winning the senate.

Frederik B, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:28 (eight years ago)

Had missed that Weld essentially gave up the ghost:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/bill-weld-tells-voters-pick-clinton-over-trump

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:29 (eight years ago)

But if they are thinking long-term, I think investment in Jason Kander in MO is smarter anyway.

Frederik B, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:29 (eight years ago)

Roger Stone, being himself:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/vote-protectors-voter-intimidation_us_580e4e63e4b0a03911ee03bc

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:29 (eight years ago)

http://thefederalist.com/2016/10/26/senate-refuse-confirm-hillary-clintons-judicial-nominees

Similarly, if a majority of senators refused to confirm anyone to any offices, or pass any legislation whatsoever, that’s their prerogative. As a matter of constitutional law, the Senate is fully within its powers to let the Supreme Court die out, literally. I’m not sure such a position is politically tenable—barring some extraordinary circumstance like overwhelming public opinion against the legitimacy of the sitting president—but it’s definitely constitutional.

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:29 (eight years ago)

*shrug* He's said twice that whatever happens happens this week. If it does, hey. If not, vaporware and the final week plays out as it does. Mair's comment about one of the two stories being held up by someone unwilling to break an NDA is certainly the most concrete and understandable thing I've heard.

yeah plus I don't think whoever is sitting on this feels a 'moral' responsibility anymore now that Trump is pretty much dead in the water

frogbs, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:32 (eight years ago)

Was thinking the same -- risking a lawsuit to keep him out of the presidency is one thing, risking it to kick a lame dog is somewhat different.

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:34 (eight years ago)

anyway here's another fun self-own from Scott Adams:

If there are no sponsored terror attacks before Election Day, it means ISIS prefers Clinton. They have the means. Think about it. #Trump
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) October 25, 2016

See how similar the Clinton bullies are? All coincidentally attacking my “sanity” at the same time. https://t.co/cVyiYHRdKl
— Scott Adams (@ScottAdamsSays) October 25, 2016

I will always be fascinated by this man's complete inability to put 2 and 2 together

frogbs, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:38 (eight years ago)

xpost Depends on the dog. If there's a political thriller/this-isn't-going-to-be-what-happens-but-what-if scenario to put into play:

* There's no more big events left now that the debates are thankfully behind us, and nature abhors a vacuum.

* Making sure people who have publicly committed for Trump -- especially House/Senate candidates -- have almost zero time left to 'evolve.'

* Related to which: one last kick of motivation against Trump, especially to potentially uninterested voters (as opposed to the chimeric 'undecided' ones).

Beyond that, eh.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:40 (eight years ago)

Also, a useful reminder/reality check in general when it comes to what the majority of people think -- note this from Gallup today:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cvs2lJuUkAA-Na-.jpg

Sure it's now the 'highest' it's been, but that's barely higher than a lot of previous months.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:50 (eight years ago)

Feels like there's a word or phrase right on the tip of my tongue for that thing people like Adams and Trump do where they surround themselves with an echo chamber of sycophants who reflect their warped self-image back at them so they can continue arrogantly spewing fiction without ever having to reckon with the reality of their amazing stupidity.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 14:52 (eight years ago)

naked emperors

he mea ole, he kanaka lapuwale (sciatica), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 15:16 (eight years ago)

Useful tweetstorm from a Texas GOP guy (not about Texas specifically):

https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak/status/791286245116698625

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 15:29 (eight years ago)

I hope the GOP at large adopts Trump's employment of effort-free swagger in place of strategy. "What's your strategy?" "Oh, I'm gonna win. Because I'm a winner. Excuse me while I go party with some luscious babes."

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 15:39 (eight years ago)

The best thing about that tweetstorm is that even as he's calling out DJT's total failures on tactics, he's still giving him places like OH and IA that even 538 has had in Clinton's column for a while. God knows how this is going to look to all the unskewedpolls/#MAGA twitter commenters who sincerely expect a Trump win. This will surprise many.

Or see: Calvin's dad: ''You're going to be one sad little kid on Christmas morning.''

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 15:49 (eight years ago)

Here's a thing that's sort of baffling to me: questionable and limited as it may be, Trump has had some success in business. Yes, he may have gamed the system to keep from going belly-up, but that at least indicates some awareness that there's a system to be gamed. And even if he wasn't aware of how to do the gaming or, say, deal with the minutia of developing properties or branding products, he presumably had people who did understand and were willing to handle those details, and he himself must have been willing to delegate and defer to their wisdom in those matters. Why, then, has he so consistently powerfucked himself during this election? If he'd behaved his entire life the way he has in 2016, he should by all rights have become a penniless beggar ages ago. I do believe that the intense public approval he encountered at his rallies probably caught him unaware and fed his ego in a way that he'd never experienced before, and I'm sure that affected his judgment. And I do believe he never really had any intention or desire to be POTUS, so I've been fairly convinced that he'd figure out a way to sabotage his campaign if it didn't run out of steam on its own. But for someone whose entire sense of self-worth seems to hinge upon seeing himself as a winner, why would he go so far out of his way to lose so spectacularly, to never heed any advise, to never even try to find a way to get out of this thing gracefully rather than making himself look like the most astoundingly clownish dipshit imaginable?

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 15:55 (eight years ago)

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152337049156/watch-the-persuasion-battle

The takeaway here is that my message about Clinton supporters being bullies is effective persuasion. Otherwise I would be ignored. This reframing is a kill shot because the bullies themselves are philosophically opposed to bullies. Once they realize they have been persuaded by Clinton’s campaign to become the thing they hate, the spell will be broken. And they won’t show up to vote.

I'm pretty sure crashing your opponents with a self-defeating paradox only works against killer robots in Asimov stories.

jmm, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 15:57 (eight years ago)

But don't you know we're actually in a SIMULATION. (I wouldn't be surprised if Adams fell for that too.)

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:00 (eight years ago)

he's getting senile xxp

global tetrahedron, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:00 (eight years ago)

I cannot vote for Clinton...yet I must. How do you calculate that? At what point on the graph do 'must' and 'cannot' meet? Yet I must vote for Clinton...but I cannot!

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:01 (eight years ago)

being a gigantic asshole can be a real asset in a business, in politics it's apparently only good enough to win the Republican primary

frogbs, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:04 (eight years ago)

The endless "persuader" talk just reminds me of the bit in Rocky & Bullwinkle where Boris employs the Pottsylvanian Persuader: "10 pounds TNT in 5 pound bag, with instructions."

JoeStork, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:04 (eight years ago)

I cannot vote for Clinton...yet I must. How do you calculate that? At what point on the graph do 'must' and 'cannot' meet? Yet I must vote for Clinton...but I cannot!

Imagining David Brooks in the suit...

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:06 (eight years ago)

whoa Scott Adams just had a true moment of self-realization

The other plausible explanation for recent events is that I’m literally insane, and in a big way. You can be the judge of that.

his whole argument is dumb garbage, of course, since it relies on Clinton's supporters "waking up" and realizing that people who support Trump were cool dudes all along, which isn't gonna happen as long as it's people like him trying to send the message

the fact that he still believes he's being "targeted" by a massive media conspiracy is hilarious and kind of sad. at no point does he seem to realize that making lunatic claims like "everything is women's fault from here on" or "I will kill Trump if he turns out like Hitler" is what's causing people to write about him

frogbs, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:11 (eight years ago)

like, what's the term for someone who says something insane, watches as hordes of people come out of the woodwork to call him insane, and concludes "wow, all these messages are weirdly similar...must be a conspiracy"

frogbs, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:12 (eight years ago)

If he'd behaved his entire life the way he has in 2016, he should by all rights have become a penniless beggar ages ago.

o rly

mookieproof, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:13 (eight years ago)

like, what's the term for someone who says something insane, watches as hordes of people come out of the woodwork to call him insane, and concludes "wow, all these messages are weirdly similar...must be a conspiracy"

― frogbs, Wednesday, October 26, 2016

"Republican."

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:17 (eight years ago)

xpost Yes, rly. If you consistently shoot yourself in the foot and refuse to relinquish the gun even to those venal toadies who are only interested in your continued survival so they can feed off your scraps, you can probably expect to bleed out completely at some point.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:27 (eight years ago)

Someone Destroyed Donald Trump’s Hollywood Walk Of Fame Star With A Sledgehammer

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:29 (eight years ago)

getting contractors to work for pennies on the dollar is probably a big part of it

frogbs, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:29 (eight years ago)

Like I said, I don't believe the dude was ever a competent businessman but he used to be at least competent enough to surround himself with people who helped maintain the illusion and keep people from looking behind the curtain. But when Oz just says fuck it and starts wandering around his palace, incoherently screaming with his dick hanging out, people are only going to continue buying into his baseless claims about greatness and power for so long before they nervously back away.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:32 (eight years ago)

Haven't seen this mentioned yet:

http://deadline.com/2016/10/donald-trump-hollywood-walk-of-fame-star-destroyed-vandals-1201842842/

Dude failed to jack Trump's Walk of Fame star, wound up jackhammering* it. He planned to auction it off for charity.

*technically he went at it with pick & sledge, but this sounded better.

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:38 (eight years ago)

Xp, dammit

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:39 (eight years ago)

Here's a thing that's sort of baffling to me: questionable and limited as it may be, Trump has had some success in business. Yes, he may have gamed the system to keep from going belly-up, but that at least indicates some awareness that there's a system to be gamed. And even if he wasn't aware of how to do the gaming or, say, deal with the minutia of developing properties or branding products, he presumably had people who did understand and were willing to handle those details, and he himself must have been willing to delegate and defer to their wisdom in those matters. Why, then, has he so consistently powerfucked himself during this election? If he'd behaved his entire life the way he has in 2016, he should by all rights have become a penniless beggar ages ago.

I feel like you don't understand how money works when you have access to shit-tons of it.

Basically, because Trump started at a certain level, he has resources that will prevent him from falling below a certain level that he can (and has) called upon. When those resources dry up, the level he operates on allows him to reach out and mine for other resources (see: marrying into other wealthy families, cutting media deals based off of his brand that's already being propped up by the tax deferments set up by a catastrophic $1B loss in the 90s). The only way Donald Trump is going to end up a penniless beggar is if his family literally takes his money away.

Now, that might happen after this ridiculous, embarrassing campaign; we shall see.

¶ (DJP), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:42 (eight years ago)

yeah wasn't a big part of his post-Taj Mahal "comeback" due to the banks declaring him "too big to fail" and bailing him out, along with repeated loans from his father

the Frontline doc does a good job of spelling this out - Trump Tower was a big success, but nearly everything after that was a failure, at least until he started licensing his name out and doing The Apprentice

frogbs, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:44 (eight years ago)

Trump had the money and connections from his father, he put up a great front, but he also fell on his ass in the nineties and lost several billion dollars. Then he found his true calling: Being an asshole on reality television. Then it turned out winning the GOP competition required exactly the same qualities as being on a reality show. Then it turned out winning the general election didn't...

Frederik B, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:47 (eight years ago)

And even if he wasn't aware of how to do the gaming or, say, deal with the minutia of developing properties or branding products, he presumably had people who did understand and were willing to handle those details, and he himself must have been willing to delegate and defer to their wisdom in those matters. Why, then, has he so consistently powerfucked himself during this election?

running for president is a different animal from coming up in the new york real estate scene where your daddy made a ton of money and obtained entry for his son. trump also had some people who helped his father help him out as well.. I figure once he gained entry to these circles all you have to do is maintain a modicum of sanity and you can overcome your crippling narcissism.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:48 (eight years ago)

You don't even have to do that if you represent enough money, which he would have after writing off his loss against all of his future income tax.

¶ (DJP), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 16:56 (eight years ago)

I feel like you don't understand how money works when you have access to shit-tons of it.

I will own this 100%.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 17:02 (eight years ago)

Meantime Kaleb killing it last night

https://twitter.com/kalebhorton/status/791158177320538112

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 17:04 (eight years ago)

I've been reading alot of venture capitalist emails recently at work and I feel like its just one big social club.. all you need to do is get in, then you stay in it by exchanging introductions and favors.. not that hard!

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 17:12 (eight years ago)

At what point on the graph do 'must' and 'cannot' meet? Yet I must vote for Clinton...but I cannot!

Speaking of killing it, Old Lunch has oft times been hilarious in this thread. I lolled hard at Robot Monster reference.

Their all losers and I like associating with loser (Dan Peterson), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 17:13 (eight years ago)

Trump Trumpin':

Donald Trump interrupted his Wednesday speech announcing the grand opening of his Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C. to congratulate Newt Gingrich for his contentious and off-the-rails interview with Fox News host Megyn Kelly.

“Congratulations on that interview last night,” Trump told Gingrich, who sat at the front of the D.C. hotel’s ballroom. “That was an amazing interview. We don't play games, Newt."

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 17:15 (eight years ago)

you basically need to destroy your sense of self-awareness if you're a politician, right?

"You want to go back through the tapes of your show recently? You are fascinated with sex, and you don’t care about public policy," Gingrich told Kelly at one point in the interview.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 17:16 (eight years ago)

To Old Lunch's point, the video of Trump in 2008 praising the Clintons indeed shows Trump as a much more coherent person (relatively). So perhaps the current word salad Trump is not necessarily representative of the man over the course of his entire career, which is a half obvious statement.

Evan, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 17:22 (eight years ago)

In addition to the basic "when you're that big you don't fail" mechanisms, I do think it's clear that "deal-making" and all the other shit that's made him money is much more suited to the delegation of responsibility to subordinates. When you're running for President, it's you up there, and on camera, and you combine that with DJT's outrageous narcissism that makes him unable to resist being up there and on camera at all times.... it just means all his failings get brought up over and over and over again in a way that wouldn't necessarily be true for all the little nuts and bolts of getting a casino opened. Though I believe he's probably much more meddlesome and arbitrary in those things than most CEOs would be, as well!

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 17:51 (eight years ago)

More on McMullin et al's plans, it seems.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/evan-mcmullin-isnt-just-running-for-president-hes-literally

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:05 (eight years ago)

“I have seen and worked with a lot of very courageous people in my time,” said McMullin, who spent 11 years working for the CIA. “I have seen a remarkable display of cowardice over the last couple of months in our leaders.”

The man has a point.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:14 (eight years ago)

More on McMullin et al's plans, it seems.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/evan-mcmullin-isnt-just-running-for-president-hes-literally

― Ned Raggett

ha ha, oh yeah, rick wilson is going to be the savior of True Conservatism. :)

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:16 (eight years ago)

yeah, making a career of elected office just seems like an endless cycle of a basement and persevering through humiliation, qualities noticeably lacking in those born rich.

he mea ole, he kanaka lapuwale (sciatica), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:17 (eight years ago)

xp to doc C

he mea ole, he kanaka lapuwale (sciatica), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:17 (eight years ago)

Would definitely be interesting to see something happening with, idk, a "Conservative" party or something - though it gets fanfic-ish very very quickly. Presumably there is a certain strain of politician and voter for whom it offers an appealing/honorable way out - the whole "the party has changed and I don't recognize it any more" approach, combined (one assumes) with some kind of merger with the dinky Libertarian party. (Though the latter sort of depends for its branding on pretending not to be conservative, in order to capture weed-friendly college kids who haven't though about anything very hard.)

But there's an obvious chicken-and-egg thing where you need to already have a ton of people doing that before it seems appealing to anybody, because in the meantime you're giving up party infrastructure, committee chairs, everything, in order to stand on principle (or to shed bad associations). I would say you'd need a huge seismic shift to make that happen. It's not yet clear whether the Trump phenomenon, as damaging as it obviously is to the party, will actually register as that kind of shift for most of the party membership. Maybe in Utah.

Also not sure how that article arrives at Utah being the country's most conservative state...

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:22 (eight years ago)

iirc they were the most republican state in the last two elections

Mordy, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:26 (eight years ago)

most raaaaacist

imago, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:27 (eight years ago)

sorry that is some tsc right there

imago, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:27 (eight years ago)

tsk tsc

imago, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:28 (eight years ago)

maybe esp considering racist history of mormon church but i think one can honestly come by religious conservatism

Mordy, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:29 (eight years ago)

Clearly, McMullin is a political idealist, who believes in citizen-legislators who serve from a sense of duty, rather than having a class of self-serving political careerists, who alternate between filling office, consulting, lobbying, and getting sinecures in think tanks, as we have now. This makes him admirable in a way, but given the dimensions of the Empire, highly deluded.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:30 (eight years ago)

"Can win >0 electoral votes" is not a bad place to start, in fairness.

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:33 (eight years ago)

i like mcmullin + finn. they seem sincere. obv their politics blow but i wish they were still in control of the party instead of ceding it to 4chan goblins

Mordy, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:33 (eight years ago)

Re: elections and Utah: It's true of 2004 and 2012 (though, ehhh, feel like having Romney there kinda skews things). Oklahoma and Wyoming beat it out in 2008, and Idaho and Wyoming in 2000. Whether "most Republican" and "most conservative" line up is a different, thornier problem. In the long term, the demographics are changing though I would hardly slot it in the "soon, it will be a Democratic safe state!" category. Still, it's gone from 91% "White, Non-Hispanic" in 1990, to 81% in 2010 (thanks Wiki), and I think of SLC at least as somehow more cosmopolitan than basically anywhere in Wyoming.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:36 (eight years ago)

mcmullin seems like a decent guy. nobody seems to have any interest in saying anything bad about him. and if you want to build a new party, sure, you start local.

just because i believe he's a decent person, though, doesn't mean i'm about to endorse the concept of his having power over women's bodies.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:40 (eight years ago)

I don't think that's his slogan iirc

Evan, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:41 (eight years ago)

many xps: god you guys stop using literally in headlines where it both wrong and unnecessary

Nhex, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:45 (eight years ago)

you know this whole notion of the "decent and principled conservative", i know it's refreshing after having to look at trump for the last two years, but goldwater was a far more decent and principled human being than lbj was. i still wouldn't have voted for goldwater.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:50 (eight years ago)

I think of SLC at least as somehow more cosmopolitan than basically anywhere in Wyoming.

Considered as a "greater metropolitan area" SLC is quite small, but at least it qualifies. Wyoming has no cities that would even come close to qualifying. Utah even has some genuine universities. Basically, Wyoming has squat in the way of higher ed.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:51 (eight years ago)

yeah I'm not really interested in decent and principled politicians tbh. like, that's nice and all, but not really a rubric for success.

Οὖτις, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:52 (eight years ago)

Vox publishes the "Donald Trump is a libel-lawsuit bully" article that the ABA commissioned then didn't publish: http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2016/10/26/13408060/aba-libel-law-trump-abuse-times

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:52 (eight years ago)

Update here:

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 12,041,191

The overall presidential vote total for 2012 was 128 million, so we're hitting a full tenth of that today with twelve days to go. I'm mildly surprised at this acceleration but I guess I shouldn't be.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 18:53 (eight years ago)

Following though a link from that article though, early voting is actually lower at this point compared to 2012 due to Republicans blocking in-person early voting. Real nice.

Nhex, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:22 (eight years ago)

I'm still not sure where this American Tory party would differ from the GOP'a actual policies. Still hostile to the poor, women, minorities, LGBTQ, etc. - just with its id kept in the closet?

Maybe it's just deeply prejudiced of me that I can't imagine an American conservatism not fundamentally racist in nature, just better at hiding it. Economically conservative without those hostilities... you just have the DLC.

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

Republican state legislatures worked very hard at voter suppression over the past 4 years. They moved the needle.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

Following though a link from that article though, early voting is actually lower at this point compared to 2012 due to Republicans blocking in-person early voting. Real nice.

Given the larger amounts reported in terms of individual state tracking in terms of then to now, it's interesting to see how this is being applied unevenly. (Also noteworthy is that some of the increases are coming IN GOP-held states -- Texas, Florida, NC. So it's a churn across the board.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:29 (eight years ago)

Cracked.com (lo, I know) points out that, when John Travolta and Kelly Preston's son died, Trump published an "open condolence letter" (!) on the Trump University website (!!!) in which he spends half of it talking about that time he tried to fuck Kelly Preston.

https://web.archive.org/web/20100217210521/http:/www.trumpuniversity.com/blog/post/2009/01/loyalty-and-kelly-preston.cfm

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:31 (eight years ago)

for posterity's sake, because wow:

I have always respected people who were loyal and faithful--which brings to mind Kelly Preston. A long time ago, before I was married, I met Kelly Preston at a club and worked like hell to try and pick her up. She was beautiful, personable, and definitely had allure. At the time I had no idea she was married to John Travolta.

In any event, my track record on this subject has always been outstanding, but Kelly wouldn’t give me the time of day. She was very nice, very elegant, but I didn’t have a chance with her, and that was that.

When I later found out she was married to John, I liked and respected her even more. Some people have values that matter to them, and she is one of them. Her loyalty was unwavering and I have always remembered that about her.

Being true to someone is very close to being true to yourself. That’s a valuable attribute in today’s world. I’m sure she was a wonderful mother to Jett and my thoughts are with her and her family after their terrible loss.

Donald J. Trump is Chairman of Trump University.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:33 (eight years ago)

hahahahahahaha

goole, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:36 (eight years ago)

amazing

Οὖτις, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:37 (eight years ago)

Posted by member1907009 on 01/11/2009 4:56 AM
I am very impress by you Donald Trump, you even find time to post something so nice for their family.
I agree with many things you say. I've read your book Think Big and will read the other ones.
Congratulations for all your achievements in life. You are my hero for this year.
Marylyn

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:40 (eight years ago)

i like how Trump adds 'before I was married', as if such a thing would matter to him

Ludo, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:42 (eight years ago)

uh

¶ (DJP), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:49 (eight years ago)

lol that trump thing

k3vin k., Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

http://i.imgur.com/21SKeZT.mp4

(•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

http://i.imgur.com/21SKeZT.gif

(•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

Hallmark is really missing out by not exploiting the demand for 'Condolences For the Loss of Your Son, and Also I Unsuccessfully Tried To Fuck Your Wife One Time, But Seriously, My Deepest Condolences' cards.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

mike pence's 13yo beagle has died

mookieproof, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:13 (eight years ago)

the wrong dog died

Mordy, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:17 (eight years ago)

ice cold

flappy bird, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:17 (eight years ago)

"Our beagle of 13 years" seems like a weird phrasing

- SOLO - Pink Dolphin, Bubbling Cassina (frog), Indris, Monkeys, Tiger (soref), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:23 (eight years ago)

"My political dreams are dead. I'm sorry, the dog. The dog. Dead."

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:24 (eight years ago)

"Our beagle of 13 years" seems like a weird phrasing

― - SOLO - Pink Dolphin, Bubbling Cassina (frog), Indris, Monkeys, Tiger (soref)

nah that's just how people talk here in indiana

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:30 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cvt3VxJVYAABo0U.jpg

mookieproof, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:31 (eight years ago)

Should've gotten a basset. Basset hounds live forever. Snotty eyes, long ears, can't die.

El Tomboto, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:32 (eight years ago)

Joe Walsh: he's mad!

https://twitter.com/WalshFreedom/status/791369493809201152

The responses are their own amusements.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:33 (eight years ago)

haha that's some great Twitter

imago, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:36 (eight years ago)

Joe Walsh: he's mad!

https://twitter.com/WalshFreedom/status/791369493809201152

The responses are their own amusements.

life's been good!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:39 (eight years ago)

Muskets, huh? I guess the next civil war won't last very long, which is comforting.

Evan, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:41 (eight years ago)

"Snotty eyes, long ears, can't die." So glad they changed this for Friday Night LIghts.

akm, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:47 (eight years ago)

Did Trump write a Bowie remembrance?

tried Blue Apron and we died (Sufjan Grafton), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:52 (eight years ago)

dick_nixon speaks

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/26/dick-nixon-knows-a-sore-loser-when-he-sees-one-trump-2016/

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:52 (eight years ago)

His Tweets are funnier.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 20:56 (eight years ago)

Yeah, Rand, about that

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/rand-paul-on-clinton-polls/index.html

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:17 (eight years ago)

And I see Mr. Walsh is all "How dare you put words in my mouth"

https://twitter.com/WalshFreedom/status/791382994783133696

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:20 (eight years ago)

'grabbing my musket' is a euphemism for masturbation right

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:22 (eight years ago)

well I'll never hear this Method Man lyric the same again

"got my gun powder and my musket, BLAOW!"

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:26 (eight years ago)

Meantime, they're not done with Paul Ryan yet!

http://www.rightwisconsin.com/opinion/daily-takes/not-a-parody-guy-who-lost-to-paul-ryan-by-70-points-announces-bid-for-speaker

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:28 (eight years ago)

Poor Pence; even for the schmuck he is, that's gotta be rough to be lashed to a campaign going down in flames over the next weeks and have your dog die too.

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:31 (eight years ago)

he better have a state-mandated funeral there

sleeve, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:33 (eight years ago)

man first liberals rig the election, then they kill a dude's dog, what next

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:35 (eight years ago)

Maybe Scott Adams is right to be afraid

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:37 (eight years ago)

Speaking of Pence:

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/791389308632436736

At first (and only) Trump-Pence event in Utah, none of the state's elected GOP officials present. No gov, neither senator, none of 4 reps....Closest thing to party assistance: speeches from UT GOP chairman and @Raul_Labrador, who came over from neighboring Idaho.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:38 (eight years ago)

perhaps they thought Labrador would be comforting given Pence's loss

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:41 (eight years ago)

have we discussed yet what the fuck is up with IA? i expect OH to be a flip state but IA went to Obama by 5% in 2012 and 9% in 2008. GWB won it by 0.7% in 2004 and Gore just barely won it in 2000. So at least at one point it was more competitive but how does it go from 9% for the D candidate in 2008 to 538 has it this cycle as a total toss-up (Clinton leading by less than a percentage point)?

Mordy, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:48 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvuZIBBWIAA3gAr.jpg:small

poetic

mookieproof, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:48 (eight years ago)

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m3rv2eb1bS1rpwcdko1_1280.jpg

... oh, beagle, sorry!

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:48 (eight years ago)

love can kill too

http://cdni.condenast.co.uk/1280x1920/o_r/OfMiceAndMen_GQ_12Nov12_rex_b.jpg

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:53 (eight years ago)

have we discussed yet what the fuck is up with IA? i expect OH to be a flip state but IA went to Obama by 5% in 2012 and 9% in 2008. GWB won it by 0.7% in 2004 and Gore just barely won it in 2000. So at least at one point it was more competitive but how does it go from 9% for the D candidate in 2008 to 538 has it this cycle as a total toss-up (Clinton leading by less than a percentage point)?

White people. Look, I am one, so it gives me no pleasure to admit it, but white people.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 22:07 (eight years ago)

Meanwhile:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-hell-teach-military-expert-couple-things/story?id=43083480

Donald Trump went on the offensive against military expert and former dean of the Army War College, Jeff McCausland, who said the Republican nominee’s comments this weekend about the battle to reclaim Mosul show he doesn’t have a firm grasp on military strategy.

“You can tell your military expert that I'll sit down and I'll teach him a couple of things,” Trump told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos in an exclusive interview.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 22:13 (eight years ago)


have we discussed yet what the fuck is up with IA? i expect OH to be a flip state but IA went to Obama by 5% in 2012 and 9% in 2008. GWB won it by 0.7% in 2004 and Gore just barely won it in 2000. So at least at one point it was more competitive but how does it go from 9% for the D candidate in 2008 to 538 has it this cycle as a total toss-up (Clinton leading by less than a percentage point)?

― Mordy, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 21:48 (sixteen minutes ago) Permalink

This is a good question. Going by 538's aggregator, Minnesota and Wisconsin are basically expected to have nearly the same margins as 2012 (+7-8%), and so is Illinois (+17%), while Trump is projected to do worse than Romney did in Missouri and Nebraska (while still winning them easily). Obviously Iowa is very white, moreso than the first four states I mentioned. But I don't know if that quite explains why he appears to be running 5-6 points ahead of where Obama did in 2012.

xp

intheblanks, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 22:20 (eight years ago)

xp i dunno, my iowa informants lead me to believe it may be a bit of clinton-specific animosity in with every other major political issue. but their governor is currently a republican in his second tenure in office after a first one that stretched through the 80s and 90s, so… change in political mood? it went for dukakis in 88, and was lean against/for W, i always thought of it as a squarely either-way state as long as i could remember.

j., Wednesday, 26 October 2016 22:21 (eight years ago)

I think Iowa is more white and also less well educated, which is critical.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 22:26 (eight years ago)

After thinking about it for more than a second, it's telling that the nearby states are going by the same margins as 2012 even as hillary is running 2 points ahead of what obama did that year nationwide. my guess is that while trump's appeal to white midwesterners isn't enough to swing states like wisconsin and illinois, but perhaps when it's mostly white people like Iowa, he can win.

intheblanks, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 22:27 (eight years ago)

“You can tell your military expert that I'll sit down and I'll teach him a couple of things,” Trump told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos in an exclusive interview

So many wondrous examples of Dunning-Kruger in action this year.

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 22:29 (eight years ago)

culturally/demographically speaking i can't tell the difference between wisconsin and iowa. is wisconsin really more diverse?

Mordy, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 22:29 (eight years ago)

xp unlike in MN and WI iowans don't, i think, have strong incentives to associate democratic-urban / republican-rural rivalries over economic and moral issues with race, since there just isn't a concentrated enough non-white racial presence anywhere. there's some generalized conservative 'stealin our jobs' type animus, for instance when locals see small factory communities undergo huge demographic shifts from an influx of hispanics or immigrants, but my impression growing up there was always that there were so few people who weren't white that racism (beyond the usual white-american strain) had a hard time really finding a good local foothold. whereas, say, if my WI relatives say shit about welfare recipients in milwaukee it's pretty obviously got racist undertones.

maybe this has changed since the rise of steve king and joni ernst tho.

j., Wednesday, 26 October 2016 22:31 (eight years ago)

Milwaukee is 40% African-American

intheblanks, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 22:37 (eight years ago)

yeah mordy, by some: about 5 percentage points more non-white population in wisconsin than in iowa (at 91.3% white in 2010)

j., Wednesday, 26 October 2016 22:37 (eight years ago)

re: early voting in TX discussion upthread, this is a very useful link:

https://apps.texastribune.org/texas-early-voting-tracker/

On the first day of early voting, 339,531 Texans cast ballots in the state’s 10 counties with the largest voting age population, breaking turnout records across the state.

The graphs below show cumulative in-person turnout in the 10 largest counties over all 12 days of early voting for the last two presidential elections. This page will be updated daily with the latest turnout data from this year.

so far, early voting is higher than 2008 and 2012, sometimes substantially so.

http://i.imgur.com/j9xHgRd.png

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 23:26 (eight years ago)

has trump said anything about unions? i assume he's against them, but wondered if he's offered the disgruntled white working class anything more concrete than 'i will make the best deals and bring all the jobs back'

mookieproof, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 23:40 (eight years ago)

Voted today, felt good.

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 23:49 (eight years ago)

I remember reading a while back that he had generally been on good terms with unions in his career, I doubt he's said anything anti-union since he wants those disgruntled white voters. Kind of surprised he hasn't railed against the union bigwigs for selling out the working class by endorsing Hillary though.

JoeStork, Wednesday, 26 October 2016 23:57 (eight years ago)

So did I! I was out in 15 minutes. The public library at which I voted was a harliquinade of Trump-Pence, Curbelo and Rubio signs.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 26 October 2016 23:57 (eight years ago)

Wilson increasingly in overdrive.

https://twitter.com/therickwilson/status/791425305596469248

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 00:45 (eight years ago)

for the love of god rick

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 00:54 (eight years ago)

Hmm...

https://twitter.com/justinjm1/status/791413723390996480

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 01:05 (eight years ago)

by when will espn shut down 538?

- november 9
- december 1
- january 20
- other

mookieproof, Thursday, 27 October 2016 01:07 (eight years ago)

This appears to be what the other tweet was about:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/26/married-donald-trump-kept-proposing-to-celebrity-apprentice-and-playboy-model-brande-roderick.html

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 01:08 (eight years ago)

That can't be the Rick thing though

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 01:11 (eight years ago)

@mookieproof: end of the next fiscal quarter

maura, Thursday, 27 October 2016 01:23 (eight years ago)

I look forward to the day when Pareene and Silver have to meet and discuss what to do about HamNo

El Tomboto, Thursday, 27 October 2016 01:36 (eight years ago)

people who shall not be named here be all like "suckers!" subtweeting at TheIntertyEightker.com

El Tomboto, Thursday, 27 October 2016 01:39 (eight years ago)

ross d is sad

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/26/opinion/campaign-stops/what-the-rights-intellectuals-did-wrong.html?&_r=0

mookieproof, Thursday, 27 October 2016 01:41 (eight years ago)

Wilson's been beating a pretty consistent drumbeat about this week/end of week/end of October. It could all be self-promotion, but his reputation is sort of on the line if he doesn't deliver. For that matter, if he knows something and doesn't spill, people will ask him about it forever. So his glee indicates he not only knows something, but knows it's coming out, to some extent, and it seems likely it's related to that first Beast story (underage models and coke) and not the one tonight (which confirms Trump's known-quality lechery). (Liz Mair is walking a similar line, though she has been less histrionic/gleeful and has been slightly downplaying not the nature of both purported bombshells but whether or not both will be leaked at all). Regardless, I am all for politics as bloodsport when a candidate as horrible as Trump is the target. As a rampant sleaze, he of all people should recognize that he's been asking for it.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:03 (eight years ago)

yeah he doesn't have a rep as a bullshitter and he's been very confident about it. I would bet something's coming out very soon.

frogbs, Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:08 (eight years ago)

In the meantime we'll have to be satisfied with this:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/26/married-donald-trump-kept-proposing-to-celebrity-apprentice-and-playboy-model-brande-roderick.html

frogbs, Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:09 (eight years ago)

............which was just posted above, oops

frogbs, Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:10 (eight years ago)

That Douthat: Both of these errors were linked to the most important failure of the right’s intellectuals: The failure to translate the power accrued through their alliance with populists into a revolution within the managerial class — one that would have ultimately made conservatism less dependent on the vagaries and venom of populism, made the right-leaning intelligentsia less of a wobbly peak and more of a sturdy spire.

I think I'll make a T-shirt that says "less of a wobbly peak, more of a sturdy spire."

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:18 (eight years ago)

i don't really understand the psychology behind loudly vocalizing one's attraction to someone in a group setting. i guess it's about proving he is virile? or is it just a no filter thing -- like brande roderick provoked these thoughts in him so he just had to share

Treeship, Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:20 (eight years ago)

or maybe just the thrill of being "powerful" enough to say things that make people uncomfortable and get away with it? idk.

Treeship, Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:22 (eight years ago)

he's just telling it like it is, bro

mookieproof, Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:25 (eight years ago)

Or maybe he is a garbage dude with no filter

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:27 (eight years ago)

that's a generous way of putting it

Brevs Mekis (dandydonweiner), Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:31 (eight years ago)

Thank you Dan

Filterless Garbage Dude (El Tomboto), Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:37 (eight years ago)

Oh wait maybe

Dude of Garbage: Unfiltered (El Tomboto), Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:38 (eight years ago)

And now there's this?

https://twitter.com/JoshuaGreen/status/791452791323529216

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:54 (eight years ago)

i'm so sick of these cryptic hints

Treeship, Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:56 (eight years ago)

Timing is right here. Tee up before the weekend and then next week, it's all crazy.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:58 (eight years ago)

lol

Divy Whiteberg ‏@DivyItOut 5m5 minutes ago
@JoshuaGreen I dont mean 2 be a stinker but in the US we stopped using the Richter scale in the 70s N favor of the moment magnitude scale :0

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Thursday, 27 October 2016 02:59 (eight years ago)

DC still calls our big one a 5.8, just saying

El Tomboto, Thursday, 27 October 2016 03:24 (eight years ago)

Just found advance copy of the intro to the cover story!

"He bears a birthmark. A sequence of sixes. So, says the Bible, do all the apostles of Satan.

If it is not visible on the body, it will be beneath the hair. Remove it.

You must be devoid of pity."

Neanderthal, Thursday, 27 October 2016 04:09 (eight years ago)

Finally a good explanation for that expensive weave

El Tomboto, Thursday, 27 October 2016 04:19 (eight years ago)

And the scalp reduction surgery

“a tub of horses” (Myonga Vön Bontee), Thursday, 27 October 2016 04:23 (eight years ago)

The reporting on how old white people i.e. folks born in the forties are supporting Trump because he represents a call for the values of the 50s is another disgusting, lazy and stupid example of how journalism school continues to fail this country on an hourly basis. A person who is 68 today was almost ready for puberty in 1959. They don't have nostalgia for shit from the goddamned fifties other than maybe some crappy TV shows and duck and cover reels. If there is any nostalgia for the fifties left in this country it's because baby boomers liked that part of their lives before they had to get jobs, had to worry about being drafted, and had to tolerate black folks getting fussy about being treated like untouchables.
That part of their lives is known as childhood.

Stop writing stories that try and make Trumpism legitimate. There is no generation of Americans, living or dead, that gets a pass for treating other humans as lesser beings, or for wishing we were all back in an age where that was the norm. There is no pass. It was and has always been a shitty way to behave. Stop, stop telling us that there are people who might have reasons for supporting Trump. Old white people today were young white people in the 60s. They have a fucking clue. They're just hateful and willfully stupid.

El Tomboto, Thursday, 27 October 2016 04:43 (eight years ago)

North Korea endorses Trump.

publicity hungry, opportunistic, disgruntled former employee (Sanpaku), Thursday, 27 October 2016 05:46 (eight years ago)

or maybe just the thrill of being "powerful" enough to say things that make people uncomfortable and get away with it?

Harkening back to a line from that Billy Bush tape: "When you're a star, they let you do it" or some such

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Thursday, 27 October 2016 06:00 (eight years ago)

Maybe this is obvious, but he hasn't gotten away with saying these things at all. Ppl in the vicinity were appalled, and his campaign's fucked. I'm just a bit puzzled as to why the overall narrative is about his ability to "get away" w saying these things.

albvivertine, Thursday, 27 October 2016 06:17 (eight years ago)

xp El Tomboto so, so OTM.

MatthewK, Thursday, 27 October 2016 06:20 (eight years ago)

Albviv also OTM.

Mark G, Thursday, 27 October 2016 07:04 (eight years ago)

People in the vicinity were appalled, but new series of the Apprentice continued to be made. His campaign's fucked - but new series of the Apprentice could have continued to be made, if he hadn't decided to run for Predisent and place himself under this much scrutiny. His not getting away with it is the result of later independent choices rather than any inevitable result of his actions.

Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 October 2016 07:20 (eight years ago)

(Pretend I know how to spell President)

Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 October 2016 07:21 (eight years ago)

Lordando Bloops

Mark G, Thursday, 27 October 2016 07:28 (eight years ago)

Danish Green Party has put an advert on Danish busses reminding Americans abroad to vote: https://twitter.com/MadsAlbers/status/791352041826291714

Frederik B, Thursday, 27 October 2016 08:37 (eight years ago)

Vote Stein, Get Trump.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Thursday, 27 October 2016 09:12 (eight years ago)

My point was mainly that it's a great and funny ad :) I've voted for the Danish Greens a bunch of times, btw, much better than Jill Stein.

Frederik B, Thursday, 27 October 2016 10:06 (eight years ago)

Has anyone read Alex Zaitchik's The Gilded Rage - his account of going on the road with Trump voters and trying to work out their motivations? It sounds interesting from his interviews.

Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), Thursday, 27 October 2016 10:15 (eight years ago)

That Douthat: Both of these errors were linked to the most important failure of the right’s intellectuals: The failure to translate the power accrued through their alliance with populists into a revolution within the managerial class — one that would have ultimately made conservatism less dependent on the vagaries and venom of populism

YOU'RE PRETTY FUCKIN' LOUD, NEW JERSEY!

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Thursday, 27 October 2016 11:36 (eight years ago)

Maybe this is obvious, but he hasn't gotten away with saying these things at all. Ppl in the vicinity were appalled, and his campaign's fucked. I'm just a bit puzzled as to why the overall narrative is about his ability to "get away" w saying these things.

― albvivertine

because he still has the support of close to 40% of the electorate?

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Thursday, 27 October 2016 11:37 (eight years ago)

that 40% is like 99% comprised of white men; at what point do we all have a quiet little sit-down and ask, wtf, white men. everybody but you gets it.

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Thursday, 27 October 2016 11:39 (eight years ago)

we're, what, at least thousand years into successfully avoiding having that conversation so i dunno

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Thursday, 27 October 2016 11:41 (eight years ago)

chances are climate change will kill us all before we get to that point anyway

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Thursday, 27 October 2016 11:42 (eight years ago)

apparently this is the bombshell?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go

haven't read it yet, myself

jason waterfalls (gbx), Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:00 (eight years ago)

It's nothing special. Fine piece, but nothing special.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:10 (eight years ago)

Still a lot of interesting meat in it, though. Surprised they went on record for it now.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:18 (eight years ago)

Oh, I agree, but it still boils down to "Trump's people are cynical but weirdly savvy operators out for personal gain and perpetuating the Trump brand post election." A fine end of the election piece, but nothing big in there, iirc.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:20 (eight years ago)

I wonder if that story and this one cancel each other out.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:21 (eight years ago)

That was Joshua Green's bombshell...

Was the apprentice thing the one that Rick was teasing when he was dropping clues about it being something involving mistreatment of women? Neither of those stories are anywhere near proportionate to the way ET tape dominated the media, but it was implied the dump would be.

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:23 (eight years ago)

Describing efforts to peel away Sanders supporters, women, and African Americans as "three major voter suppression efforts" is impressively tin-eared, but yeah that's no bombshell.

Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:25 (eight years ago)

Tin-eared in their description but also it's like...that's all you've got in terms of organized voter suppression? Sheesh.

But yeah, the story basically just firms up what many have suspected from the start: Trump's presidential run was a shell game, and he's theoretically better off if he doesn't win. I say 'theoretically' because I doubt that he expected to do so much damage to his own brand.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:30 (eight years ago)

Psst, everyone

Word on the street is that I have a big post coming up later today. Could change everything. Stay tuned...

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:31 (eight years ago)

that story really demonstrates the potential power of bad statistical modeling and its ability to influence a credulous audience

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:32 (eight years ago)

the thought of a tv network headed by trump and featuring support acts like mike cernovich and milo yiannopoulos is both hilarious and terrifying

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:33 (eight years ago)

Karl, is this the post we discussed earlier, the one that we agreed would blow everyone's lid for sure? Still can't believe you got XXXXXXX to violate the NDA!

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:34 (eight years ago)

One of the major takeaways from that Bloomberg article is that Trump's campaign has done a fantastic job of building an echo chamber on Facebook. Assuming that that naturally translates into an audience for a successful TV network is kinda like me gambling my life savings on ILX: The Movie being a smash at the box office.

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:37 (eight years ago)

I think you could reasonably gamble on ILX: The Obscure Podcast

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:39 (eight years ago)

The only one who hyped this Joshua Green story was Joshua Green. The other players hyping a Trump bombshell have been less neutral and more gleeful, and at the very least, from a position of morbid curiosity, when one of them says the so-called "bombshell" (which Rick Wilson and Liz Mair have said has not dropped yet) was worse than him using the n-word, worse than anything that has come out so far, something so horrible and lurid it would cost him evangelicals (who, let's be fair, have pretty low standards), then my ears perk up. It could all be a Trump-y scam, but given the litany of Trump shit that's come out over the last several months, why bet low? We're at the point of stories placing him in the midst of cocaine fueled sex parties with underage models hosted at least in part by a convicted sex offender girl procurer, and we're all ... ok, what else? I think if news of that rape lawsuit in progress were broken now, after all the other assault accusations, as opposed to months ago, it would be getting more traction, but worth saying again that Trump camp has been conspicuously silent on the one sex assault issue that actually seems to be proceeding on a legal basis.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:43 (eight years ago)

Hillary went from up 12% to 6% in the ABC tracking poll. p much suggests that huge lead was probably not realistic and Trump voters coming back after a quieter news week.

there's this huge obnoxious billboard near Tampa right now that says "I'm a Deplorable! I'm voting Trump". I wish I could explode it with my mind.

Neanderthal, Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:53 (eight years ago)

In many ways this is the more interesting behind the scenes story today -- what happened with the Koch network this year:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/koch-brothers-campaign-struggles-230325

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 12:59 (eight years ago)

it would cost him evangelicals (who, let's be fair, have pretty low standards)

Do we think the last act of Jack Chick's life was to cast an early ballot for Trump

more like dork enlightenment lol (Bananaman Begins), Thursday, 27 October 2016 13:08 (eight years ago)

xpost That ABC tracking poll is not only in its first (second?) year, but it was the only one that showed her overtaking Trump with a double-digit lead, iirc. So grain of salt.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 27 October 2016 13:29 (eight years ago)

10:02 p.m.: Trump, onstage, criticizes Hillary Clinton for accepting foreign money. “Fire it off!” Parscale barks. Instantly, a new Trump tweet appears: “Crooked @HillaryClinton’s foundation is a CRIMINAL ENTERPRISE. Time to #DrainTheSwamp!”

lol this is so melodramatic

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 27 October 2016 13:49 (eight years ago)

Smash cut to a finger jabbing the Enter key.

Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 October 2016 13:53 (eight years ago)

Why, indeed:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/gary-johnson-blows-up-at-guardian

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:01 (eight years ago)

The codification and regurgitation of Trumpspeak by a proxy reminds me of a gorilla using sign language to communicate its limited palette of 50 words and phrases. "Goofy @kitten made TOTAL DISASTER on cage floor. SAD! #benghazi #bananas"

Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:02 (eight years ago)

it's funny how trump's twitter account is 50% a highly sophisticated military operation and 50% petty blowhard

xp

iatee, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:03 (eight years ago)

"Look, I came out for the legalization of marijuana. Let me just use that as an example," Johnson barked.

This is an astonishingly dumb human.

Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:05 (eight years ago)

That little interview snippet totally out-pathetic-ed Jeb!

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:07 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PS6lNDrCi88

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:08 (eight years ago)

It can be easily forgotten because Trump is such an overpowering font of garbage, but this really is the worst slate of presidential candidates in my lifetime by a pretty safe margin.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:09 (eight years ago)

The interview devolved further when Lewis questioned Johnson about why he lags in fourth place in a race where both major-party candidates are unpopular.

tbf, that is a dumb question. He's going to be third or fourth place no matter what he does.

jmm, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:12 (eight years ago)

I dunno, if I overheard my interview subject blowing his top right before I met up with him, I might be inclined to ask, 'First question: do you ever find it difficult to continue doing what you do, given how bad you are at doing it?'

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:15 (eight years ago)

Why how very timely...wait.

https://twitter.com/TwitchyTeam/status/791478404784746496

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:15 (eight years ago)

"I'm not a dummy," Johnson went on. "I'm not."

http://www.lovethispic.com/uploaded_images/226006-Better-To-Remain-Silent-And-Be-Thought-A-Fool-Than-To-Speak-Out-And-Remove-All-Doubt.jpg

- bob marley

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:16 (eight years ago)

Fear and Loathing in...Reno?

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/joe-heck-against-the-world-can-a-senate-hopeful-win-without-donald-trump

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:17 (eight years ago)

he interview devolved further when Lewis questioned Johnson about why he lags in fourth place in a race where both major-party candidates are unpopular.

tbf, that is a dumb question. He's going to be third or fourth place no matter what he does.

― jmm,

OTM. This is why candidates and voters hate the media.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:19 (eight years ago)

it's funny how trump's twitter account is 50% a highly sophisticated military operation and 50% petty blowhard

xp

― iatee, Thursday, October 27, 2016 10:03 AM (twelve minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WN69nz6r2Pc

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:20 (eight years ago)

I think it's a good question - this is the best possible lay of the land for the Libertarian candidate - what does it mean that they're not making much headway? If he wasn't so dumb, there's a lot of good ways to talk about organisational hurdles and what can be done about them at a local and state level, but he isn't not so dumb.

Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:30 (eight years ago)

Nah, it's a gotcha question. "What ideas about government are you hoping your voters think about?" would do a better job illustrating Johnson's ignorance than the "When did you stop beating your wife?" shit.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:33 (eight years ago)

The Jon Oliver episode about him and Jill compiled some pretty dumb moments they've both had.

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:33 (eight years ago)

I mean, he might as well have asked Johnson, "Why do you suck?"

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:33 (eight years ago)

i kinda wish every interview with political figures kicked off that way tbh

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:36 (eight years ago)

Meanwhile here's another example of white supremacists at work: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:47 (eight years ago)

@OldLunch let's just say that the stock at @CVS is about to go through the roof because (1/2)

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:50 (eight years ago)

So many people are going to visit to buy socks on the way to work after they are blown off by my post (2/2)

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:52 (eight years ago)

xxpost -- linked earlier!

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:52 (eight years ago)

ugh just ugh:

On Oct. 24, Trump’s team began placing spots on select African American radio stations. In San Antonio, a young staffer showed off a South Park-style animation he’d created of Clinton delivering the “super predator” line (using audio from her original 1996 sound bite), as cartoon text popped up around her: “Hillary Thinks African Americans are Super Predators.” The animation will be delivered to certain African American voters through Facebook “dark posts”—nonpublic posts whose viewership the campaign controls so that, as Parscale puts it, “only the people we want to see it, see it.” The aim is to depress Clinton’s vote total. “We know because we’ve modeled this,” says the official. “It will dramatically affect her ability to turn these people out.”

The Trump team’s effort to discourage young women by rolling out Clinton accusers and drive down black turnout in Miami’s Little Haiti neighborhood with targeted messages about the Clinton Foundation’s controversial operations in Haiti is an odd gambit. Campaigns spend millions on data science to understand their own potential supporters—to whom they’re likely already credible messengers—but here Trump is speaking to his opponent’s. Furthermore, there’s no scientific basis for thinking this ploy will convince these voters to stay home. It could just as easily end up motivating them.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:55 (eight years ago)

Wow, Trump's sexual harassment is making the headlines even here! Apparently Miss Finland of 2006 just told the media that he groped her butt while she was participating in the Miss Universe competition of that year.

Tuomas, Thursday, 27 October 2016 14:56 (eight years ago)

I will admit with some shame I immediately googled "miss finland 2006"

but I will remark with some joy that the third google result is a horse in Australia named "Miss Finland"

mh 😏, Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:04 (eight years ago)

I mean, he might as well have asked Johnson, "Why do you suck?"

Might as well! If anything, the reporter should have been asking him or herself - "why am I interviewing you?" Johnson has had numerous weird or dumb moments, very few of them of the "gotcha" variety. He's said so many dumb things and so many wrong things, and even worse, rather than correct his mistakes or make an effort to counter perception, his only strategy seems to be .. sarcastically claiming to be dumb, rhetorically asking why people think he's dumb, sticking out his tongue and acting dumb. It's amazing he's gotten as much coverage as he has, more than Stein, I'd say.

Anyway, when one of the major parties is running a dumb outsider candidate, it's definitely fair game to ask why Johnson's particular brand of dumb outsider has gotten so little traction I would't be surprised if McMullin gets more votes.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:05 (eight years ago)

The only one who hyped this Joshua Green story was Joshua Green. The other players hyping a Trump bombshell have been less neutral and more gleeful, and at the very least, from a position of morbid curiosity, when one of them says the so-called "bombshell" (which Rick Wilson and Liz Mair have said has not dropped yet) was worse than him using the n-word, worse than anything that has come out so far, something so horrible and lurid it would cost him evangelicals (who, let's be fair, have pretty low standards), then my ears perk up. It could all be a Trump-y scam, but given the litany of Trump shit that's come out over the last several months, why bet low? We're at the point of stories placing him in the midst of cocaine fueled sex parties with underage models hosted at least in part by a convicted sex offender girl procurer, and we're all ... ok, what else? I think if news of that rape lawsuit in progress were broken now, after all the other assault accusations, as opposed to months ago, it would be getting more traction, but worth saying again that Trump camp has been conspicuously silent on the one sex assault issue that actually seems to be proceeding on a legal basis.

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, October 27, 2016 8:43 AM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I'm pretty sure you're right if it's a hunch, but has Rick or Liz actually clarified that the Apprentice story and Josh Green story were both not the "bombshells" they've been teasing?

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:10 (eight years ago)

Former Miss Finland tells about her meeting with Donald Trump: ”He squeezed my butt"

Tuomas, Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:13 (eight years ago)

Wait wait guys was Karl's last post the bombshell? Is Trump involved in a price-fixing scandal surrounding Trump-branded socks? Or - - - he said "blown off" - - - obviously a coy reference to wind socks! I'm guessing Trump has been caught on video with an undercapitalized wind-energy company? It must be something nearly as serious as that or Karl wouldn't be posting about it. Or is the dump still coming? Fuck! Help!

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:13 (eight years ago)

It's highly doubtful anyone would've been teasing today's Bloomberg piece as a bombshell. It fleshes out some behind the scenes details but none of it is particularly surprising and it's going to have zero impact on voters one way or the other.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:15 (eight years ago)

The bombshell will drop on election day, when Clinton's loyal hound Trump trots back to his master's side, clenching the fresh corpse of the GOP in his teeth.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:18 (eight years ago)

http://yalerecord.org/2016/10/26/the-yale-record-does-not-endorse-hillary-clinton/

Yale Record getting cutesy

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:19 (eight years ago)

By "sock" clearly Karl is saying there is a sock in this thread that will anonymously unlease the steaming dump bomb

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:21 (eight years ago)

I'm pretty sure you're right if it's a hunch, but has Rick or Liz actually clarified that the Apprentice story and Josh Green story were both not the "bombshells" they've been teasing?

Yeah, I think. I mean, at least Wilson brought attention to them, but the impression was neither was the so-called bombshell. That is, when the Trump and young models and coke story came out, Wilson tweeted "wait for the chaser" and Mair specifically said that was neither of the two "bombshells" she knew of. Which means whatever is waiting in the wings is worse than or related to the coke model party story, and neither the Apprentice nor the Green piece rise to or exceed that level.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:22 (eight years ago)

Right- got ya. I was just making sure I didn't miss something explicitly stated.

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:23 (eight years ago)

the bombshell could involve a real crater, out in the desert, filled with blown-off socks. or just a crazy post that might turn this election upside-down! all coming sometime this week, pending approval by my editors, who are WOWED by what they have seen...so far

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:27 (eight years ago)

as much as we all want something worse to come out and sink him even further i'm guessing that the access hollywood video will be the october surprise of 2016 (not sure if it came out in october but still)

global tetrahedron, Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:30 (eight years ago)

Honestly, I hope that if there are any more bombshells people just sit on them for a while. He's already sunk as far as the election is concerned so just save it and do what you can to delegitimize whatever dumb endeavor he has lined up after his historic loss.

Except this bombshell post Karl has cooking. Guys, all I'm saying: duck and cover under your desks now and prepare for a prolonged period of radiation poisoning. You're going to ultimately lose your hair AND your fingernails after he hits 'Submit Post'.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:36 (eight years ago)

Duck and cover…cuck Andover…

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:38 (eight years ago)

but I will remark with some joy that the third google result is a horse in Australia named "Miss Finland"

There's your bombshell.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:42 (eight years ago)

xxpost

in 2009, a few SBs were carried out before the 51 total was hit - breaking
what did the mods know and when did they know it

Neanderthal, Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:43 (eight years ago)

The codification and regurgitation of Trumpspeak by a proxy reminds me of a gorilla using sign language to communicate its limited palette of 50 words and phrases. "Goofy @kitten made TOTAL DISASTER on cage floor. SAD! #benghazi #bananas"

― Wikipedia Brown and the Case of the Incomplete Filmography

makes me think of the ascians in the book of the new sun

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:45 (eight years ago)

I mean, he might as well have asked Johnson, "Why do you suck?"

This reminds me of a discussion I read somewhere about the notoriously dickish questions bands have gotten from German music journalists, who have a reputation for asking things like, "Your new album is not very good. Why is that?"

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:49 (eight years ago)

Ah, Newt.

https://t.co/3HuicpZqfQ

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:56 (eight years ago)

it's a good question xp

mh 😏, Thursday, 27 October 2016 15:57 (eight years ago)

We love the Hindus, we love India": http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-hindi-ad-video-indian-americans-us-election-2016-a7382506.html

Spiritual Hat Minimalism (Sund4r), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:04 (eight years ago)

tempted to ask my hindu coworkers about this but the majority are not voters and the rest would probably roll their eyes really hard at me

mh 😏, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:07 (eight years ago)

I see that Gingrich has adopted the Trumpian tactic of projecting his self-approval on invented people. Just because you're hearing voices don't mean they're coming from outside your head, Newt.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:07 (eight years ago)

People have been telling me, they say, 'Old Lunch, you're fantastic, you should stop taking those pills.' So I flushed them down the toilet, and the people have never been more vociferous in their praise, and the government has never been more out to get me.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:10 (eight years ago)

Not a felicitous choice of words here:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-family-brand-intact-230390

“The brand is much more than New York City. This is a global brand,” Trump Jr. said. “I mean, when you look at the people he's touching on a daily basis, the presidency, fixing America is so much bigger than any of that regardless.”

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:12 (eight years ago)

Touchin' and fixin'

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:16 (eight years ago)

Trump: Fixin' to touch you on a daily basis

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:17 (eight years ago)

I shouldn't make fun of these people because, for many if not all, their mental state appears to be up for question. And yet.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/28/us/politics/donald-trump-voters.html

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:18 (eight years ago)

DONALD TRUMP: He will touch you.

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:18 (eight years ago)

I mean, this guy alone:

An information diet from Trump-friendly outlets like Breitbart News and Infowars has led many to believe that there is no way Mr. Trump can lose, and that even contemplating the possibility is foolish. “I’d be shocked,” said Rick Hill, 58, of Fort Myers, Fla.

Mr. Hill added, “If you get on social media, he’s got Hillary beat three to one.”

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:19 (eight years ago)

oh man

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:19 (eight years ago)

There's a "Parker Lewis Can't Lose" joke here somewhere

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:19 (eight years ago)

As Mrs. Clinton pulls away in many polls, some Trump voters found it difficult even to contemplate what a Clinton presidency would be like for them.

“I’d go home and cry for four years,” said Ken Herrmann, 69, of Punta Gorda, Fla.

Please do!

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:20 (eight years ago)

“I’ve never seen the country so divided, just black and white — there’s no compromise whatsoever. The Clinton campaign says together we are stronger, but there’s no together. The country has never been so divided. I’m looking at revolution right now.”

Just weighing his options right now.

jmm, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:21 (eight years ago)

Then you have the middle-age-crisis types like this. And as I'm three years older than him I will happily trash him for his paranoia and stupidity.

Paul Swick, 42, who owns a moving business, went with his wife and daughter to see Mr. Trump speak in Green Bay last week. Mr. Swick considers himself a “Bible Christian” and “Thomas Jefferson liberal,” and said he hoped to beat Mrs. Clinton “at the ballot box.”

But Mr. Swick, by his own estimation, also owns “north of 30 guns,” and he said Mrs. Clinton would have trouble if she tried to confiscate the nation’s constitutionally protected weapons. (Mrs. Clinton has said she supports the Second Amendment, but she favors certain restrictions, like tighter background checks for gun buyers.)

“If she comes after the guns, it’s going to be a rough, bumpy road,” Mr. Swick said. “I hope to God I never have to fire a round, but I won’t hesitate to. As a Christian, I want reformation. But sometimes reformation comes through bloodshed.”

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:21 (eight years ago)

They say shit like that because they find it romantic. They think they live inside the mural painted on their pickup truck

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:26 (eight years ago)

they're LARPing

Mordy, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:33 (eight years ago)

85% of conservative beliefs at this time are just cosplay

nomar, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:34 (eight years ago)

As Mrs. Clinton pulls away in many polls, some Trump voters found it difficult even to contemplate what a Clinton presidency would be like for them.
“I’d go home and cry for four years,” said Ken Herrmann, 69, of Punta Gorda, Fla.

Reminds me of that K-Lo post from 2012 when she mourned the fact that our nation would never get to know First Lady Ann Romney.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:36 (eight years ago)

my dad's obama-shelter is still fully stocked. he has been preparing for the FEMA camps since 2011ish. luckily this means that he's already prepared for the clinton revolution, and/or for when obama finally reveals his evil plan and takes on the 3rd term

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:36 (eight years ago)

These Trump supporters are so lucky that the fringe media is here to provide them with information about the enigmatic, reclusive dem candidate they hate and fear so much. We wouldn't need to rely on the gospels as told to Beetbort News if Clinton would just go on record with some of her positions so that we could judge for ourselves. If only there were a way to hear it straight from the crooked horse's mouth. If only!!!

With a touch of mental health reform, a dash of educational reform, and a sustained campaign of public mockery, I think we could have a lot of this problem mopped up in a decade or so.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:37 (eight years ago)

my dad's obama-shelter is still fully stocked. he has been preparing for the FEMA camps since 2011ish. luckily this means that he's already prepared for the clinton revolution, and/or for when obama finally reveals his evil plan and takes on the 3rd term

doesn't the lack of obama's FEMA plans coming to pass make him reevaluate, in any way, his beliefs about the nature of reality?

Mordy, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:38 (eight years ago)

like it's so sad that instead of a second of reflection that maybe the hysteria was bullshit it's just move on to make up the next batch of dumb shit about the next candidate

Mordy, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:38 (eight years ago)

“Unfortunately, I’m not a man of vigilante violence,” said Richard Sabonjohn, 48, of Naples, Fla.

"unfortunately"

frogbs, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:40 (eight years ago)

sad!

nomar, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:42 (eight years ago)

I just don't get the selective credulousness, either. Somehow the word of these crazy alt-right sources is consistently golden and so, naturally, everyone that they say is awful is as awful as they say. How about: most politicians and news sources are full of varying levels of bullshit, and maybe don't take anyone with an ulterior motive entirely at their word?

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:43 (eight years ago)

“If she comes after the guns, it’s going to be a rough, bumpy road,” Mr. Swick said. “I hope to God I never have to fire a round, but I won’t hesitate to. As a Christian, I want reformation. But sometimes reformation comes through bloodshed.”

frogbs, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:43 (eight years ago)

xpost
he watches alex jones.

on my most recent visit home, my mom saw a sunset with a big cloud passing in front of it so that the sun almost appeared to be split into two. she then asked me if i believed in Planet X, which is a new development for my mom. Rush Limbaugh stole my dad, Alex Jones stole my mom

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:44 (eight years ago)

lol Mordy you've definitely never met these people

I have a friend whose father has had these kinds of beliefs in the past. Unfortunately for him, his neighbors are also nutty. I believe an ex-soldier dude who either lives next door or was visiting relatives next door to my friend's dad was so angry they were asked to be quieter, he assaulted my friend's dad. Said dad is an old man with an ostomy bag.

There are entire neighborhoods of ppl with really fucked up ideas

mh 😏, Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:46 (eight years ago)

xpost I am legitimately sorry, KM. That's horrible. Those people are horrible.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:46 (eight years ago)

he then asked me if i believed in Planet X, which is a new development for my mom. Rush Limbaugh stole my dad, Alex Jones stole my mom

and Hillary will steal the election!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:46 (eight years ago)

Those media people, I mean.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:47 (eight years ago)

How much money would we have to pay Limbaugh and Jones to try to kill and eat one another? Kickstarter, anyone?

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:48 (eight years ago)

As a Christian, I want reformation. But sometimes reformation comes through bloodshed.

it's like the only book of the new testament these people have read is revelation

which to be fair is the only book i thought was interesting when i was 10

j., Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:50 (eight years ago)

The most insightful thing my father ever told me about modern Christianity was "there are a lot of people out there who think they love the word of Jesus who actually love the word of John"

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:53 (eight years ago)

booming post father of DJP

his eye is on despair-o (Jon not Jon), Thursday, 27 October 2016 16:53 (eight years ago)

yeah I'm stealing that

jason waterfalls (gbx), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:07 (eight years ago)

it's like the only book of the new testament these people have read is revelation

which to be fair is the only book i thought was interesting when i was 10

― j., Thursday, October 27, 2016 4:50 PM (sixteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

lol like these people have read the fucking bible

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:08 (eight years ago)

yet if they read the Gospel of John they might find all this "love" talk confusing

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:09 (eight years ago)

Oh, come on, that's a little much. I'm sure they love their guns.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:11 (eight years ago)

"I only read the Bible for the family trees."

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:12 (eight years ago)

everybody finds the gospel of john confusing, it makes no fucking sense

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:12 (eight years ago)

I'm not really sure what DJPs dad meant by that? (Not crazy familiar with bibley things)

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:15 (eight years ago)

nb I have never actually read the Bible

jason waterfalls (gbx), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:15 (eight years ago)

It's good! I spent my childhood poring over Greek mythology and an illustrated Old Testament. I thought Yahweh was crueler and more capricious than Zeus.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:17 (eight years ago)

I'm not really sure what DJPs dad meant by that? (Not crazy familiar with bibley things)

Jesus: love and goodness and kindness
John: YOU FUCKERS WHO DIDN'T UNDERSTAND THAT WILL BURN FOREVER I AM BIASED AND I AM RIGHT

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:19 (eight years ago)

I went to Catholic school and everything, and really only know Adam and Eve, the birth of jesus, a couple of stories about him, and the crucifixion

jason waterfalls (gbx), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:20 (eight years ago)

xpost (Referring to Revelation of John more than gospel of, but anyway.)

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:20 (eight years ago)

I thought Yahweh was crueler and more capricious than Zeus.

this sounds... hyperbolic. but i'm curious to hear more.

Mordy, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:21 (eight years ago)

Latest Clinton email leak has lots of traction today. Not enough Trump stench in the air to offset it either

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:21 (eight years ago)

so much traction that post is the first i'm hearing of it

Mordy, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:22 (eight years ago)

I was about to say.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:22 (eight years ago)

Well, I check news.google and it's dominant there at least

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:23 (eight years ago)

I'm not super web savvy

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:23 (eight years ago)

Jesus: love and goodness and kindness
John: YOU FUCKERS WHO DIDN'T UNDERSTAND THAT WILL BURN FOREVER I AM BIASED AND I AM RIGHT

― Ned Raggett

would dispute but this thread probably not best place for me to do so :)

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:27 (eight years ago)

well, if "Morning" Joe and "Mika" led with the new leaks, it MUST be news.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:27 (eight years ago)

Elaine Pagels is v good on the er shifts in tone and discourse leading through to the composition of the Book of John

Οὖτις, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:28 (eight years ago)

Is news.google.com not a generally reliable way to assess what's rising to the top of the news cycle?

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:28 (eight years ago)

slightly freaking by minor trump rises in these polls, have to assume these are going to be statistically meaningless

akm, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:29 (eight years ago)

I went to Catholic school and everything, and really only know Adam and Eve, the birth of jesus, a couple of stories about him, and the crucifixion

― jason waterfalls (gbx),

Catholics don't give a shit about the Bible; their Biblical instruction is confined to excerpts in the missalettes read at Mass.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:29 (eight years ago)

What if a Clinton email leak contained damning material about Donald Trump? Meta Bombshell!

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:30 (eight years ago)

Google News may show you different results based on your own interests and search history.

I posted that Daily Beast piece on Stein's investments on FB and it's hilarious to watch my "vote your conscience " Stein voter friends rush to reflexively defend what they'd condemn if it were any other candidate .

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:34 (eight years ago)

You know at least 2 active Stein supporters?

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:35 (eight years ago)

I know at least 5!

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:37 (eight years ago)

xp oh I know more than that!

sleeve, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:38 (eight years ago)

I find it very amusing that neither Stein nor Johnson will be able to claim to be the most successful 3rd party candidate this year.

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:38 (eight years ago)

Another honest non-rhetorical question: Does incognito mode on the browser affect the way news.google might tailor results? It's still all damning Clinton headlines under top stories from major news outlets.

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:38 (eight years ago)

I know some as well and lately one's been sharing pro-Trump memes 'because they tell the truth about Hillary.' I'm patiently letting him work it out.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:39 (eight years ago)

That'll never work

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:43 (eight years ago)

not sure what djp's father meant, but if i am to guess and if he is referring to that the purpose of john was to introduce people to jesus christ, it sounds like he is saying people just like to read the stories (in the gospel of john), and don't really practise the word of god

bloodshed is not part of the word of jesus christ. i assume that's what djp was referring to

F♯ A♯ (∞), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:43 (eight years ago)

xp
I'm still in the local Bernie Sanders fb group and one woman keeps posting kook-right anti-HRC stuff. "Hillary's bagged another one!" with a story about a recent death of someone involved in the Bernie vote-suppression stories.

nickn, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:44 (eight years ago)

Has anyone read Alex Zaitchik's The Gilded Rage - his account of going on the road with Trump voters and trying to work out their motivations? It sounds interesting from his interviews.

I haven't read it yet, but he was interviewed on today's bonus Chapo Trap House episode. Had a lot of interesting things to say, including that a lot of people who would support the policies grew up in the Cold War and listened to years of Limbaugh so stuff like just the word "socialist" has an emotional reaction all so strong they shut down.

Similar to how Obamacare policies have far more support when you don't actually say "Obamacare."

We're stuck with human brain wiring, and I'd say this is an aspect to it. Sorta like how other groups of people freak fuck out at the mention of "GMOs"

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:44 (eight years ago)

god i hate everytime 538 moves clinton to 86.4 percent to 84.7 i freak the fuck out :/

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:45 (eight years ago)

You guys, the bombshell is here!

Dan I., Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

ok if we're still talking about this i know a lot of people like to think of jesus as some mellow super-hippie but man he says some harsh stuff in those gospels. cursing a tree to never bear fruit just because it didn't happen to have any fresh figs that day. prophesying civil war, brother rising against brother, telling people to abandon their families and follow him, saying "i come not to bring peace, but a sword". john of patmos, or paul, or whoever, they're not that particularly more harsh than the stuff in the gospels.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:49 (eight years ago)

Trump: "I remember Bill would wear nothing BUT the same bathrobe for a whole year! Hillary is OK with this? I guess she only knows DIRTY politics"

xp

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:52 (eight years ago)

i know a lot of people like to think of jesus as some mellow super-hippie but man he says some harsh stuff in those gospels. cursing a tree to never bear fruit

Just think: in 2016 the tree would write a Buzzfeed think piece!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:53 (eight years ago)

i was giving djp the most generous interpretation

obviously there's all types of things wrong with what he said

by the way, the same thing goes for what alfred said

and with all religions while we're at it

but i can't be bothered

F♯ A♯ (∞), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:55 (eight years ago)

Glad he isn't a hippie tbh.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Thursday, 27 October 2016 17:55 (eight years ago)

"god i hate everytime 538 moves clinton to 86.4 percent to 84.7 i freak the fuck out :/"

that's why I'm trying to just look at the NYT forecast instead

akm, Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:00 (eight years ago)

ok if we're still talking about this i know a lot of people like to think of jesus as some mellow super-hippie but man he says some harsh stuff in those gospels. cursing a tree to never bear fruit just because it didn't happen to have any fresh figs that day. prophesying civil war, brother rising against brother, telling people to abandon their families and follow him, saying "i come not to bring peace, but a sword". john of patmos, or paul, or whoever, they're not that particularly more harsh than the stuff in the gospels.

― mystery local boy (rushomancy), Thursday, October 27, 2016 10:49 AM (thirteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

he was most decidedly unchill in that whole temple incident

harold melvin and the bluetones (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:03 (eight years ago)

who whips people?

harold melvin and the bluetones (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:03 (eight years ago)

You can push a Messiah too far, you know.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:06 (eight years ago)

Guys, guys. No one needs to be freaking the fuck out. Trump clearly has bigger, more profitable fish to fry than winning some dumb presidential election. This thing has been over for a couple of weeks now.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:09 (eight years ago)

Just don't forget to vote!

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:09 (eight years ago)

And then monitor your polling place for shady activity!

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:10 (eight years ago)

Guys, guys. No one needs to be freaking the fuck out. Trump clearly has bigger, more profitable fishsteak to fry than winning some dumb presidential election. This thing has been over for a couple of weeks now.

― I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, October 27, 2016 2:09 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:11 (eight years ago)

The tensions came to a head when Chelsea Clinton helped enlist an outside law firm to audit the Clinton Foundation’s practices. Some interviewees told the audit team that the donors “may have an expectation of quid pro quo benefits in return for gift.” The audit suggested the foundation “ensure that all donors are properly vetted and that no inappropriate quid pro quos are offered to donors in return for contributions.”

smoking gun - CF was concerned about quid pro quo !

Mordy, Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:14 (eight years ago)

john the apostle that is yuge

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:18 (eight years ago)

hahahahahahahahahahahahaha you can't be serious that people are looking at this as an indication of shady practices

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:18 (eight years ago)

I dunno, the article says 'Clinton Foundation' and 'quid pro quo'. I don't know what any of those words mean, but that screaming man on my AM station seems pretty angry about it so I'm already loading my gun.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:22 (eight years ago)

I'll be grabbing my musket...

you in?

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:24 (eight years ago)

Kaleb Horton, again

http://www.mtv.com/news/2947769/trump-timeline/

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:25 (eight years ago)

xp: I do not want to play Soggy Constitution

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:26 (eight years ago)

That Horton piece has maybe my favorite Trump derogation yet:

Donald “I Don’t Understand What Puberty Is And I’m Taking It Out On My Action Figures By Melting Them With A Butane Torch” Trump

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:31 (eight years ago)

I knew "Mika" and "Morning" Joe were dying to play False Equivocation when Joe shouted, "What Ron Fournier's been sayin' for months is true! Follow the money!"

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:39 (eight years ago)

Jesus' chill has four settings

tried Blue Apron and we died (Sufjan Grafton), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:53 (eight years ago)

Same goes for his superpowers

tried Blue Apron and we died (Sufjan Grafton), Thursday, 27 October 2016 18:55 (eight years ago)

http://fictionboy.weebly.com/uploads/2/2/8/1/22812756/7170277_orig.jpg

Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 27 October 2016 19:10 (eight years ago)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/trump-staff-included-drug-trafficker-child-molester-43108137

the very best people

(•̪●) (carne asada), Thursday, 27 October 2016 19:18 (eight years ago)

i think i'm perpetually stuck on surly. i can't even _read_ 4.

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Thursday, 27 October 2016 19:37 (eight years ago)

4 is "brutal"

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 27 October 2016 19:48 (eight years ago)

You'll never believe #4!

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 19:51 (eight years ago)

"Those were trumped-up charges," said Broussard, 48. "She said that I - what? What's so funny?"

JoeStork, Thursday, 27 October 2016 19:53 (eight years ago)

lol

https://twitter.com/EmmyA2/status/791715180593967105

Οὖτις, Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

why aren't trump supporters called trumpets or trumpeters? it's just too obvious? it's disrespectful to miles davis?

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:03 (eight years ago)

got some bad news for u Karl, they call themselves that, with pride

sleeve, Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:07 (eight years ago)

It's disrespectful to strumpets

jmm, Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:10 (eight years ago)

really? somehow i've never gone on an trump internet expedition deep dive, so i guess i've missed out on some stuff.

i do have to mention that it's disrespectful to miles davis for them to call themselves that, but it's their choice, free country

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:12 (eight years ago)

Scott Adams, clever fellow. Uh.

https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/791691282317873152

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:18 (eight years ago)

I expect that there's a forthcoming tweet containing plans for a foil helmet that blocks out Hillary's hypnosis rays.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:22 (eight years ago)

I can't remember what it is we hate most. Republicans?

Οὖτις, Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:22 (eight years ago)

love

j., Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:25 (eight years ago)

What do they believe, exactly?

Evan, Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:25 (eight years ago)

so 12 more days of reading everyone's garbage opinion about this

12 days of christmas style countdown begins

F♯ A♯ (∞), Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:42 (eight years ago)

I don't think "hypnosis" means what Scott Adams think it means

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:50 (eight years ago)

grrr I hate typos

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:50 (eight years ago)

Finally managed to vote. Early voting line at my local Travis County supermarket was about 30 minutes, but it took me longer because I was the dumbass who thought I could reference a list on my phone for my votes. That didn't go over well with the polling officials.

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:54 (eight years ago)

^fraud

Neanderthal, Thursday, 27 October 2016 20:59 (eight years ago)

I turned on my cell phone and everyone else's votes flipped

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:00 (eight years ago)

Might just be me but today has been the first day checking out various right-leaning usual spots/sources where I'm (blessedly) sensing an ebbing of energy, moving towards a kind of reflexive torpor. Could just be today, who knows, but it's almost like the combination of weariness at Trump's constant botching, dealing with his ranting supporters and watching HRC continue on the glide path (and continuing to work hard to stay on that glide path), in combination with the now rapidly closing window in general, is making even the more energized in general, the hyperpoliticos and political fans there, just finally join everyone else in wanting things to be over with. Even the calls to hold Congress aren't feeling like much from them.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:01 (eight years ago)

The funny thing is, it was at a big supermarket and your only not allowed to have your phone on in the little voting area in the corner. Meanwhile shoppers are milling around a few feet away, presumably with phones on.

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:02 (eight years ago)

I totally used my phone to help me decide downticket stuff in the Brooklyn primaries a few weeks ago

his eye is on despair-o (Jon not Jon), Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:03 (eight years ago)

Speaking of said ranters:

http://www.mediaite.com/online/james-okeefe-tells-alex-jones-that-people-are-going-to-literally-revolt-if-election-is-stolen/

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:04 (eight years ago)

He noted that it wouldn’t be with “pitchforks” but instead via social media. He then reiterated that people would “literally going to revolt.”

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:05 (eight years ago)

for the life of me I cannot figure out what drives Nate's model. Today was a particularly robust day of polling and the national polls ranged from a tie (the garbage LA Times poll) to a 9% lead in the 4-way race, with most of them ranging from a 6-9% lead.

state poll data came out and there wasn't really anything shocking either way - basically confirmed the firewall was holding in battlegrounds, in some cases at a higher margin than previous. Nate's Polls Only model, meanwhile, shifts almost 2 points to Trump. so it can't be blamed on economics/other factors (though Polls Plus went down as well). the other pollsters mostly held their ground, some increased towards Clinton, and the ones that declined were on the other side of 95%, where any decline seems more like a leveling off.

like....is Disney saying "c'mon Nate, give us some more clicks or our children will go hungry"?

Neanderthal, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:06 (eight years ago)

lol one from Qunnipac just came in showing Trump up only 1% in Georgia. lord, if you can't please THOSE motherfuckers.....

Neanderthal, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:08 (eight years ago)

older polls fall off as new ones come in...maybe that's the difference?

frogbs, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:08 (eight years ago)

possibly. still, tho...

so - anybody throwing a LOL @ Trump or "breathe a sigh of relief" party on Election day?

I'll be in Mississipi on business that day. kinda nervous.

Neanderthal, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:15 (eight years ago)

“If you have 50 to 100 million people in this country who have no one to speak for them what’s going to happen to those people,” O’Keefe stated. “I think that’s a powerful movement of people that are going to literally revolt.”

this reminded me that the country saw the largest prison strike in history this month

goole, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:18 (eight years ago)

Jesus God fuck O'Keefe. the # of people who actually are voting Trump without reservation is definitely smaller than that, but for god's sake, how alone in the world did WE feel during the Bush Administration? we somehow managed to not riot.

like, idk, find another candidate? this demagogue shit scares the shit out of me. at least for us Che Guevara is just a t-shirt.

Neanderthal, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:21 (eight years ago)

They're already revolting amirite

“a tub of horses” (Myonga Vön Bontee), Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:22 (eight years ago)

we somehow managed to not riot.

yes but we are pussies that don't own guns

Οὖτις, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:26 (eight years ago)

"man we have nobody to say the racist shit we've been secretly afraid to admit to believing all these years, WHEREVER SHALL WE TURN?"

Neanderthal, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:26 (eight years ago)

Might just be me but today has been the first day checking out various right-leaning usual spots/sources where I'm (blessedly) sensing an ebbing of energy, moving towards a kind of reflexive torpor.

NRO's been in this funk for at least a week. Notice I haven't much revived the thread!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:27 (eight years ago)

Meanwhile in bizarro world

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trump-transition-raising-money-christie-230403

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:47 (eight years ago)

At Christie’s request, Feulner is trying to raise $100,000 for transition costs that aren’t covered by federal funding, he wrote in an email to supporters on Tuesday. Feulner said he's volunteering to help the transition on issues including government regulation, school choice, health care reform, energy deregulation, welfare and food stamp reforms.

The Trump transition team, under Christie’s leadership, has grown to more than 100 people as it compensates for the campaign’s lack of policy staff. The effort has brought on Cam Henderson, who had been the finance director for a super PAC supporting Christie’s own presidential bid, to help supplement the government funding.

“The need for a modest cash budget has become a priority,” Feulner wrote in an email. “I remain convinced that the contest is much closer than the so-called Main Stream Media would have us believe.”

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:48 (eight years ago)

oh they're compensatin for something alright

Neanderthal, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:49 (eight years ago)

Khizr Khan, doing the darn thing

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/27/khizr-khan-is-not-done-standing-up-to-donald-trump.html

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:50 (eight years ago)

None of these people will be paid a dime.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:51 (eight years ago)

Oh Donald, you card.

https://twitter.com/colvinj/status/791755944401199107

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 21:57 (eight years ago)

I like the way Pmurt thinks.

jmm, Thursday, 27 October 2016 22:09 (eight years ago)

Why I'm glad Bob Dornan is still around to see this happen:

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/791742855584681984

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 22:44 (eight years ago)

wow

haven't thought of B1 Bob in awhile

Οὖτις, Thursday, 27 October 2016 22:46 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dDumDN3Y5I

mystery local boy (rushomancy), Thursday, 27 October 2016 22:50 (eight years ago)

Seems a bit late in the game, but Howard Stern finally talked about Trump:

http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/26/media/howard-stern-on-trump-interviews/index.html

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Thursday, 27 October 2016 22:55 (eight years ago)

Dixon Ticonderarawawoo

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/791755183986475008

jmm, Thursday, 27 October 2016 23:02 (eight years ago)

That oppo can drop any day now

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Thursday, 27 October 2016 23:05 (eight years ago)

Commas, Mr. Hannity. They are your friend.

https://twitter.com/seanhannity/status/791775981719719936

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 23:13 (eight years ago)

lol one from Qunnipac just came in showing Trump up only 1% in Georgia. lord, if you can't please THOSE motherfuckers.....

― Neanderthal, Thursday, October 27, 2016 5:08 PM (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Georgia's population is 40% non-white.

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Thursday, 27 October 2016 23:24 (eight years ago)

crut as you know we just erase those people when we wanna talk about southern states

though she denies it to the press, (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Thursday, 27 October 2016 23:29 (eight years ago)

Only peripherally related but since the overlap with Trumpkins is huge, all Bundy defendants found not guilty on all charges.
http://www.oregonlive.com/oregon-standoff/2016/10/judge_welcomes_new_juror_direc.html

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Thursday, 27 October 2016 23:32 (eight years ago)

Seems strange because they're still facing charges in Nevada, I think. Unclear exactly what's supposed to happen!

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 27 October 2016 23:32 (eight years ago)

xps just like gerrymandering did!

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Thursday, 27 October 2016 23:33 (eight years ago)

xxp Phil there's an update on that link

sleeve, Thursday, 27 October 2016 23:48 (eight years ago)

Georgia's population is 40% non-white.

― electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Thursday, October 27, 2016 7:24 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

crut as you know we just erase those people when we wanna talk about southern states

― though she denies it to the press, (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Thursday, October 27, 2016 7:29 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yes, it is, but that wasn't what I was referring to.

Republicans have won 10 out of the last 13 elections in Georgia, and of the three they didn't win, two were lost to Jimmy Carter, who won primarily because it was his home state, and Bill Clinton in 92, aided largely by Perot siphoning away 13% of the vote, but in recent decades it is a state that Democrats don't usually win, yet latest poll had Hillary within 1%. that is all I was saying. It's hardly a Texas or an Alabama, but it's usually reliable Repub state.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 00:06 (eight years ago)

what up GA I just did it in you. maybe this will be the first time the candidate I vote for wins my state of residence

acerbic (sic)s (will), Friday, 28 October 2016 00:20 (eight years ago)

goddammit to fuck @ the Bundy standoff verdict.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 00:20 (eight years ago)

they're on the march bruh

acerbic (sic)s (will), Friday, 28 October 2016 00:34 (eight years ago)

yeah, I find the not guilty verdicts quite surprising, but it was such an unusual case I'm guessing that the jury may not have grasped the judge's instructions very well regarding what is required to meet a conspiracy charge. or else they chose to ignore them.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Friday, 28 October 2016 00:39 (eight years ago)

what up GA I just did it in you.

― acerbic (sic)s (will), Thursday, October 27, 2016 8:20 PM (forty-six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

tmi

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 01:07 (eight years ago)

Aimless the fuckin jury was rigged, the judge dismissed the one who wanted to convict.

I'm raging about it on the sovereign/freemen thread

sleeve, Friday, 28 October 2016 01:12 (eight years ago)

welcome to the new fascist USA, and probably even President Trump if they can swing this shit

sleeve, Friday, 28 October 2016 01:13 (eight years ago)

everybody I know in Oregon is speechless and enraged

sleeve, Friday, 28 October 2016 01:14 (eight years ago)

is that shithead judge up for reelection i hope

Clay, Friday, 28 October 2016 01:22 (eight years ago)

I swear to god I will go knock on doors against him if he is

sleeve, Friday, 28 October 2016 01:23 (eight years ago)

i shudder to think what further scary nonsense this verdict is going to inspire.

once upon a time people used to rebel against legit wrongs. now people bitch about you putting flouride in their water and assemble a militia for the right to graze on public land without a permit.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 01:27 (eight years ago)

cool that he institutionally emboldened the most dangerous and violent organized part of american society tho, should fit well on lawn signs xp

Clay, Friday, 28 October 2016 01:29 (eight years ago)

meanwhile there is police action against unarmed protestors at standing rock

jason waterfalls (gbx), Friday, 28 October 2016 02:19 (eight years ago)

The judge -- Anna Brown -- is female. And maybe calling things rigged right now isn't a good look? Unless you also don't buy, y'know, a federal jury trial.

soma's little yelpers (lion in winter), Friday, 28 October 2016 02:29 (eight years ago)

Why does it matter that the judge is "female"

Οὖτις, Friday, 28 October 2016 02:31 (eight years ago)

Or were you just correcting clay?

Οὖτις, Friday, 28 October 2016 02:31 (eight years ago)

hmm can't possibly think of what could be different between a Presidential candidate pre-emptively calling an election rigged v an internet poster stating a jury was rigged due to a verdict arrived at by a curious juror switch

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 02:37 (eight years ago)

xpost -- I was correcting because it does matter. assuming a federal judge is on the side of the accused is pretty serious -- not knowing who they are when you're calling for them not to be reelected sort of suggests something too.

Also, just because it matters: the juror that was dismissed had worked for the Bureau of Land Management.

It's been traditionally difficult for the federal government to successfully prosecute white people who conspire against it. See the Weavers; the 1988 sedition trial against white supremacists in Arkansas.

soma's little yelpers (lion in winter), Friday, 28 October 2016 02:38 (eight years ago)

x-post again: it's not a curious juror switch. what was worse is that said juror wasn't screened properly.

also: you're an internet poster. hi.

soma's little yelpers (lion in winter), Friday, 28 October 2016 02:40 (eight years ago)

he worked for the BLM more than *twenty years ago* and passed jury selection

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 02:41 (eight years ago)

this was known at the time of the selection. they accepted his response that he would not let that influence his decision.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 02:43 (eight years ago)

also are you literally calling out an internet poster who is enraged by a decision that hits close to home for him simply because they didn't accurately state the sex of the judge in the case? do you get how people tend to be a little hyperbolic when they're upset?

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 02:45 (eight years ago)

1) doesn't matter it was twenty years ago, no judge wants to be appealed;
2) dismissing 'the juror that wanted to convict' isn't really indicative of a successful trial on the part of the prosecution.

like, honestly. fuck those idiots. i wish they'd been jailed. but hearing someone talk about a federal by the books process as being rigged is rankling right now.

soma's little yelpers (lion in winter), Friday, 28 October 2016 02:45 (eight years ago)

no, i'm not. do they live in portland?

look: i get that it takes years of having little-to-no opinion and posting constantly to get any traction in this place. but please actually read what i wrote. don't call federal trials 'rigged' on the part of the judge. it's not usually the case.

soma's little yelpers (lion in winter), Friday, 28 October 2016 02:48 (eight years ago)

you were indirectly comparing the use of the word "rigged" to a certain other candidate's use of the word "rigged" when they aren't the same thing at all. that's what I was responding to.

keep your persecution complex out of it.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 02:50 (eight years ago)

I mean I don't expect you to know everybody's life story here cos I sure don't but for calling out a dude who got the judge's sex wrong, you missed some of the p obvious clues that sleeve is from Oregon

everybody I know in Oregon is speechless and enraged

― sleeve, Thursday, October 27, 2016 9:14 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

is that shithead judge up for reelection i hope

― Clay, Thursday, October 27, 2016 9:22 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I swear to god I will go knock on doors against him if he is

― sleeve, Thursday, October 27, 2016 9:23 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 02:53 (eight years ago)

my god fine: In 1992, Brown became a judge on the Multnomah County District Court.[2] She was on that court until 1994 when she was elevated to the Multnomah County Circuit Court.[2] On April 22, 1999, Brown was nominated to the federal United States District Court for the District of Oregon by President Bill Clinton.

i wasn't doing it indirectly at all. calling shit rigged that isn't weakens faith in legitimate political/judicial processes. she's a democrat appointed judge. forget it. glad you were there to personally call me out and personally defend someone i don't know making a bad argument about something i do know a little about.

soma's little yelpers (lion in winter), Friday, 28 October 2016 02:54 (eight years ago)

otm

mookieproof, Friday, 28 October 2016 02:58 (eight years ago)

Don't blame the judge. It takes a special breed of prosecutor to fuck this up.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 28 October 2016 03:09 (eight years ago)

lion in winter, while I can abstractly appreciate your gadfly persona, I did in fact know at one point who Brown was (when she denied them the right to lawyer themselves, if you read this thread you will see that I have been following this closely) but I forgot that fact because this verdict pisses me off so much. if you can't see what a tremendous miscarriage of justice this is, and how glaringly it contrasts with Standing Rock, and how shameful the behavior of everybody involved (including the judge) is here, I don't even know what to say. god damn right I want her off the bench.

sleeve, Friday, 28 October 2016 03:15 (eight years ago)

and IDGAF who appointed her, for the record

sleeve, Friday, 28 October 2016 03:16 (eight years ago)

sleeve and i both live in oregon iirc xps

Clay, Friday, 28 October 2016 03:30 (eight years ago)

ftr this was a federal case in a federal court and federal judges do not stand for election, so that option is out

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Friday, 28 October 2016 03:40 (eight years ago)

i agree from a justice standpoint. especially re standing rock. there's a serious precedent in the u.s. of an inability to prosecute white anti-federal gov types, and also militia guys. this article's whole subtext is about how cbp and dhs collude with weekend warriors: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/undercover-border-militia-immigration-bauer

my only issue was the 'rigged' stuff and the fact that federal judges are rightly non-elected. i don't love what's here, but i think delegitimizing it isn't going to help the people who are deserving.

soma's little yelpers (lion in winter), Friday, 28 October 2016 03:43 (eight years ago)

by 'love what's here' i mean the 'status quo'

soma's little yelpers (lion in winter), Friday, 28 October 2016 03:44 (eight years ago)

yeah i wasn't thinking when i said that, obv this would be a federal case. for whatever reason i was just imagining some hokey-ass rural judge stereotype bc i am oftentimes an idiot and bad stuff happening exacerbates that. xps

Clay, Friday, 28 October 2016 03:45 (eight years ago)

lion we're good, I'm gonna step away for the night cuz I'm so upset, disappointed that the judge can't be voted out, just frustrated all around

sleeve, Friday, 28 October 2016 03:52 (eight years ago)

xxpost btw lion i apologize for earlier, you obviously know what you're talking about and I don't really disagree, I could tell sleeve was upset about what was going on given their proximity to it and just wanted to let him vent. i don't think it was a 'fix' myself, but am pissed (but not surprised) about the verdict and what it holds.

everybody should go and do what i did and watch The Hills Have Eyes instead

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 03:56 (eight years ago)

this is just killing me right now

http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/billy-baldwin-calls-stephen-baldwin-donald-trump-support-article-1.2847837

acerbic (sic)s (will), Friday, 28 October 2016 04:15 (eight years ago)

preview of our new courageous leader

http://i.imgur.com/vJwQTzO.png

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Friday, 28 October 2016 04:20 (eight years ago)

The irritating thing about that is that I don't have any trouble taking that statement at face-value. I would not be surprised if Clinton wasn't seriously arguing in good faith that all of the voices involved were of equal power and deserve equal time to make their cases.

The problem with real life is that most problems aren't actually solved by people sitting down and just talking to each other, no matter how romantic and just that scenario sounds.

¶ (DJP), Friday, 28 October 2016 04:25 (eight years ago)

most of the problems itt, for instance, are caused by exactly that

the kids are alt right (darraghmac), Friday, 28 October 2016 04:28 (eight years ago)

I would not be surprised if Clinton wasn't seriously arguing in good faith that all of the voices involved were of equal power and deserve equal time to make their cases.

eh, i guess. it's nice to argue that everyone deserves an equal voice, and given that these protesters are being confronted by riot police, sound cannons, helicopters, etc, i'm sure they'd love to just sit down and talk on equal footing.

and i suppose it's tough to imagine anyone in her position taking a strong stand in either direction, 12 days out from election. she's trying not to mess up.

at least there's some other prominent people willing to clearly stand on the protesters' side. http://www.ban.jo/News/US-Canada/20160913/Bernie-Sanders-Speaks-At-No-DAPL-Protest-In-Washington-DC-Washington/

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Friday, 28 October 2016 04:37 (eight years ago)

But if guess that I'd Bernie we're the nominee he'd be noncommittal as well.

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Friday, 28 October 2016 04:42 (eight years ago)

*typed on an iPhone while running up a flight of stairs, apparently*

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Friday, 28 October 2016 05:06 (eight years ago)

I feel like you didn't bother to read the rest of my post.

¶ (DJP), Friday, 28 October 2016 05:11 (eight years ago)

Or, if you did, you didn't understand that I think Clinton's position here is bullshit and that I don't endorse or support this wishy-washy nonsense.

¶ (DJP), Friday, 28 October 2016 05:13 (eight years ago)

yeah the quote was definitely just "box-ticking" with nothing in the way of real, practical solutions.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 05:20 (eight years ago)

Oh, it's the latter - I didn't understand your point. I feel like an understanding that most problems aren't resolved by sitting down and talking is what makes it hard to take clinton's argument (or whatever she did there) in good faith, if you grant that she's also aware of that. So I thought the two sections of your post were kind of in balance against each other, as two different scenarios, and I was just coming down on one side. My bad!

Either way, I would still be very surprised to see someone in her position take a real stand, sadly.

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Friday, 28 October 2016 05:29 (eight years ago)

obama spent years and years being wishy-washy over the keystone pipeline before rejecting it. i know we as a species want to see mighty heroes and whatnot, but doubletalk bureaucracy is just as effective.

The Huldre-girls ringtones (rushomancy), Friday, 28 October 2016 10:52 (eight years ago)

So first Pence's dog dies, and then his plane almost crashes. Is he getting the message?

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 11:39 (eight years ago)

He danced for those at minstrel shows and county fairs throughout the south
He spoke with tears of 15 years of how his dog and him but just travelled all about
His dog up and died, he up and died, and after 20 years he still grieves

more like dork enlightenment lol (Bananaman Begins), Friday, 28 October 2016 11:49 (eight years ago)

And that's why, to this day, we since "The Ballad of Mike Pence."

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 11:59 (eight years ago)

I just watched the Duckworth/Kirk video after reading about it, and I just . . . what, besides pure, unbridled racism, could possibly motivate someone to say that? I'm not missing something, right?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXSjjygdhdg

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Friday, 28 October 2016 13:11 (eight years ago)

He's probably gambling that outright racism is a winning platform this cycle

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Friday, 28 October 2016 13:15 (eight years ago)

Kirk currently trails Duckworth 38.3 percent to 47 percent, according to TPM’s PollTracker Average.

thank fucking christ

marcos, Friday, 28 October 2016 13:23 (eight years ago)

I'd probably vote anyone named "Duckworth" tbh

frogbs, Friday, 28 October 2016 13:30 (eight years ago)

Kendrick Lamar for president

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Friday, 28 October 2016 13:31 (eight years ago)

but what am i supposed to do when the topic is red or blue

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 13:36 (eight years ago)

I voted for Duckworth. Kirk is ridiculous and sends way too many spammy emails touting his "moderation". I guess I got on his list by writing him as my senator to complain about his idiot party? what a tool.

droit au butt (Euler), Friday, 28 October 2016 14:24 (eight years ago)

is "moderation" a euphemism for his penis

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 14:24 (eight years ago)

Some more insight into the incoming OPPODUMP™?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/25/1586568/-Daily-Beast-Inside-Donald-Trump-s-One-Stop-Parties-Attendees-Recall-Cocaine-and-Very-Young-Models

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 14:40 (eight years ago)

that's just rehashing the same story that came out days ago.

akm, Friday, 28 October 2016 14:46 (eight years ago)

The 'old stories' are now days old, rather than months or years.

Mark G, Friday, 28 October 2016 14:49 (eight years ago)

Tammy Duckworth should be president.

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 28 October 2016 14:49 (eight years ago)

Towards the bottom:

In the aftermath of posting my article about Trump Model Management, I have had a flood of responses from people, including Michael Gross, who have first-hand knowledge of the crimes that Donald Trump, unregistered sex offender, has committed. It is in large part because of this influx of new information that the follow up installments have been delayed. I know people are anxious for the information to come out, and I promise you it will. Soon.

But for the time being, please know one thing: I take no joy from the fact that my initial instincts when I read the Mother Jones article were correct. I also take no solace in confirming that my initial impression of Trump-who I first encountered at age 16 during one of his Howard Stern appearances-was accurate. I knew instinctively that he was an abuser, and everything I’ve learned about him since has reinforced that belief.

The fact that other women, in particular those with a history of abuse, had similar thoughts is affirming, and it is a relief that we can finally say it out loud. The resulting dialogue has been healing in many ways-perhaps the one silver lining to come out of this toxic election, and this toxic candidate.

But make no mistake-this October surprise in progress is not a joyful development. It is horrifying. It is devastating, because there are actual victims involved, and they are actual human beings. It should be a gut check to our nation that a man like Donald Trump could rise to a level of such prominence. This is something that should have never happened. The fact that it did speaks volumes about how we value women and girls in our society.

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 14:50 (eight years ago)

Rigged election!

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article111029767.html

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 15:32 (eight years ago)

http://i.imgur.com/F92ugTa.jpg

20 minutes apart

mookieproof, Friday, 28 October 2016 15:46 (eight years ago)

this guy is such a hack

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 15:46 (eight years ago)

loooolo

Οὖτις, Friday, 28 October 2016 15:47 (eight years ago)

'the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function'

f scott fitzgerald i'm callin u out

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 28 October 2016 15:51 (eight years ago)

he had to change that tweet, hillary is actually up 4 in that poll, in line with all the other polls showing her with a smaller but still commanding lead. she was up 16 among women.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Friday, 28 October 2016 15:52 (eight years ago)

cillizza is a total hack

marcos, Friday, 28 October 2016 15:53 (eight years ago)

@realDonaldTrump
If my people said the things about me that Podesta & Hillary's people said about her, I would fire them out of self respect. "Bad instincts"

hahaha

mookieproof, Friday, 28 October 2016 15:58 (eight years ago)

If my people ever turned out to be anything other than yes men who nod approvingly while I paint on the walls with my own fecal matter, I would fire them and subsequently starve to death because I don't know how to work a can opener.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Friday, 28 October 2016 16:01 (eight years ago)

Hmm!

https://twitter.com/BenWinslow/status/792026320242810881

Temple Taggart, the fmr Miss Utah Trump’s Miss Universe pageant, to hold a news conference with Gloria Allred at 12:30pm. @fox13 #utpol

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 16:04 (eight years ago)

TGIF

Οὖτις, Friday, 28 October 2016 16:07 (eight years ago)

UTAH

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 28 October 2016 16:09 (eight years ago)

12:30 MDT?

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 16:11 (eight years ago)

Presumably.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 16:11 (eight years ago)

oh man he's gonna lose utah. there's going to be some kind of novelty this election - either a blue utah or a 3rd party utah.

Mordy, Friday, 28 October 2016 16:12 (eight years ago)

probably third party Utah, which still denies him a few electoral votes he thought he had.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 16:12 (eight years ago)

I like McMuffin. Him winning Utah would be awesome

frogbs, Friday, 28 October 2016 16:14 (eight years ago)

I appreciate your support

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 16:15 (eight years ago)

jk

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 16:16 (eight years ago)

hack upthread couldn't even get the stat right. Hillary isn't up 16 points in the tracking poll, she's up 16 points *among women*. The rest of the sentence was true, but the context is important especially since it shows just how disillusioned females are with Trump (as we expected all along).

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 16:26 (eight years ago)

eephus mentioned that, but yeah.

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 16:32 (eight years ago)

oops missed that the first time. meanwhile, "don't overreact to one or two polls", Nate Silver says, as his model seems to do the opposite:

http://i67.tinypic.com/aulo5.png

that's his polls-only, too...polls plus had Trump at over 20% odds last time I checked.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:03 (eight years ago)

I'll think of that 99% in bed when I need to get some sound sleep.

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:14 (eight years ago)

Interesting times!

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/792048407649120256

NBC News: FBI re-opening investigation into Hillary Clinton’s private e-mail server

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:14 (eight years ago)

great

k3vin k., Friday, 28 October 2016 17:16 (eight years ago)

Hard to imagine they have time to charge her with anything before the election, and hard to see anything short of an indictment having any electoral impact at all at this point.

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Friday, 28 October 2016 17:19 (eight years ago)

(not saying she should, could or would be charged with anything, who knows what it even means)

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Friday, 28 October 2016 17:19 (eight years ago)

Meantime, Elections Project reports 17 million plus votes now in.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:21 (eight years ago)

i'm glad our country is in such good shape that there isn't anything more important for the FBI to work on

Mordy, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

Rumor mill in overdrive that this prompts the 'oppo drop.' Eh, but we'll see.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

Prompt the drop, oh prompt the drop
Oppo's gonna drop on you

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Friday, 28 October 2016 17:27 (eight years ago)

May you vote in uninteresting elections.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Friday, 28 October 2016 17:30 (eight years ago)

Rather.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:30 (eight years ago)

Shame Morbs isn't here to share this news with us

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Friday, 28 October 2016 17:35 (eight years ago)

After reading Comey's letter to Congress, it looks to me like he's updating existing information.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 17:36 (eight years ago)

Compelling:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PG2V0YnokM

schwantz, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:37 (eight years ago)

A fair amount of skepticism on right-leaning Twitter at least. Obviously some cheering, but a lot of people are thinking nothing happens, or ask why it didn't already.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:37 (eight years ago)

naturally it was Chaffetz who hyped it

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 17:38 (eight years ago)

Well, yes.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:39 (eight years ago)

Lock her up! Drain the swamp! Kill the pig, spill its blood!

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:40 (eight years ago)

Rich Lowry ‏@RichLowry 50s50 seconds ago
Rich Lowry Retweeted ABC News
You'd think such an important communication would be a little bit less vague

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 17:41 (eight years ago)

Think progress works quickly.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 17:42 (eight years ago)

The relevant paragraph in this brief letter is the middle one, where Comey writes that the FBI “has learned of the existence” of emails that it previously did not review. In response to this new information, the FBI will now “allow investigators to review these emails to determine whether they contain classified information.”

The FBI, in other words, is not reexamining its previous findings. It is not questioning its previous legal conclusion that “no reasonable prosecutor” could determine that charges are warranted. Based on the letter, it appears that the FBI will simply provide the same scrutiny to these newly uncovered emails as it previously applied to the emails it already reviewed when it determined that criminal charges are not warranted.

Obviously, this letter raises many questions — not the least of which is why the Republican FBI Director decided to release such an inflammatory letter immediately before the election rather than waiting two weeks. Based on the letter’s actual content, however, there is no reason to believe that the FBI will change its ultimate conclusion that no reasonable prosecutor could bring charges against Clinton.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 17:44 (eight years ago)

maybe comey only excused her before so that he could SURPRISE indict on the 7th.

Mordy, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:44 (eight years ago)

Hard to imagine they have time to charge her with anything before the election, and hard to see anything short of an indictment having any electoral impact at all at this point.

This is the one thing that seems to have really hurt her in the past so having news cycles dominated by this is...not the best

depending on what this big oppo drop is of course

frogbs, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:45 (eight years ago)

Krugman otm

Comey needs to provide full info immediately. Otherwise he has clearly made a partisan intervention, betraying his office.

Οὖτις, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:49 (eight years ago)

Wilson is being very cagey today for sure. And his response to the FBI news was "Well. Things ARE getting sporty." (Keep in mind he's thinking about a situation above all else where McMullin succeeds.)

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:50 (eight years ago)

not sure what good it will do to cry about partisan interventions though

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 17:50 (eight years ago)

What if he just announces things as they're available

Like someone walked into his office and said "bad news, we found another five messages from Hillary that weren't in the investigation" at the end of business hours yesterday

So this morning he sent a note saying there were new messages, we're on it

mh 😏, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:50 (eight years ago)

They should open an investigation into the investigation immediately!

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 17:58 (eight years ago)

“It might not be as rigged as I thought.” — Donald Trump in Manchester, NH

Le Bateau Ivre, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:04 (eight years ago)

Unless one already believes Hillary is evil and a traitor, it seems like the worst attitude one could have about this email stuff would be "hmm, that was pretty damn careless of her, but it's not exactly likely she'll make THAT mistake again". This assumes one can form independent thoughts based on reasonable examination of the available evidence, as opposed to vacillating among a nebulous set of anxieties.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Friday, 28 October 2016 18:05 (eight years ago)

Honestly the more I think about it the more I think the only real beneficiary is McMullin. Might explain why Wilson's being amusingly cagey today.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:06 (eight years ago)

Wouldn't oppo against both candidates be good for him? Or are you speculating that they shouldn't be competing headlines

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:07 (eight years ago)

The former. He'd love it.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:07 (eight years ago)

I'm going to go out on a limb and assume these new emails are the exact same shit they've looked at before except these were found in people's accounts who were CC'd or in their outlook trash or whatever. Same sorta thing happened in august I think.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 28 October 2016 18:08 (eight years ago)

xpost -- Keep in mind that McMullin has been pretty straightforward since the start of his campaign that he's the conservative choice for people who don't like either of the two main ones. As we've now seen, it's enough to call one state into play and, given his 'yeah it's improbable but the option exists' ploy of a tie and the House voting, anything he can do to make a final sale by contrast is up his alley.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:09 (eight years ago)

So then the conclusion is that he doesn't need to be cagey?

Anyway, if it's not actually "reopening" the case why is it that the media can frame it that way still? Blargh

xxp

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:09 (eight years ago)

Anyway, if it's not actually "reopening" the case why is it that the media can frame it that way still? Blargh

Optics, Chaffetz knew what he was doing as Alfred noted. Meantime, Wilson's caginess is definitely of the amused/satisfied sort.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:11 (eight years ago)

i have to say that the email thing has gotten way more traction this whole election season than i thought it would. i really figured no one really gave a shit about this (and there is also huge precedent in bush administration for doing the same fucking thing) but i guess the press needs something to talk about re: clinton's campaign

marcos, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:14 (eight years ago)

Meantime:

https://twitter.com/samsteinhp/status/792065966930796545

Pete Williams sources also say it isn't going to be a game changer. But will take more than 11 days

*shrug*

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:14 (eight years ago)

If anything I find this weirdly hilarious:

https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/792063160266084352

I'm told the FBI was sent a cache of emails Guccifer hacked two years ago, obtained by a rival hacker group from his Romanian server.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:16 (eight years ago)

Is it so much to ask that we can be assured the country is not subjected to gassy orange fascism? Nobody likes M. Night Shyamalan narratives in 2016

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:17 (eight years ago)

Huh.

https://twitter.com/samsteinhp/status/792065584548708352

Pete Williams has sources saying not about Clinton world w/holding emails. Not about Podesta emails. Not emails from Clinton.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:20 (eight years ago)

so dumb the media is reporting this as "FBI reopens email case"

frogbs, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:20 (eight years ago)

That Utah press conference is about to happen, FWIW.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:22 (eight years ago)

Is this anything other than a naked last-ditch effort by Comey to steer favor towards the presidential candidate who's less likely to unceremoniously sack his ass?

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Friday, 28 October 2016 18:24 (eight years ago)

Comey's not in better odor with Trump's base, who all think he's bought and paid for by the Clintons because he didn't "lock her up".

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Friday, 28 October 2016 18:27 (eight years ago)

At the very least, a Trump president would guarantee him plenty of overtime pay.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:28 (eight years ago)

Comey is in a lose-lose situation.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 18:28 (eight years ago)

Speaking of:

https://www.facebook.com/fox13newsutah/videos/10154561195465586/

I mean, this may be not much. But who knows?

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:29 (eight years ago)

Well it would be nice if the headlines starting adjusting, because that's all anyone is going to read

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:30 (eight years ago)

honestly this doesn't really change anything in the big picture. this election is already in progress, millions of votes have already been cast, there aren't many minds that are going to be changed anymore imo

in any case comey submitting this after the election would've raised bigger accusations of partisanship bc everybody (on the right and in the media) would be screaming "why didnt comey bring this up before the electon? he closes the investigation and then reopens it after HRC won? rigged!!"

marcos, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:32 (eight years ago)

Comey is in a lose-lose situation.

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, October 28, 2016 2:28 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink
yea

marcos, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:32 (eight years ago)

i have to say that the email thing has gotten way more traction this whole election season than i thought it would. i really figured no one really gave a shit about this (and there is also huge precedent in bush administration for doing the same fucking thing) but i guess the press needs something to talk about re: clinton's campaign

― marcos, Friday, October 28, 2016 6:14 PM (sixteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

because nobody understands it, its a lawyerly exercise in document preservation and destruction and lets people project whatever bad intentions they want onto it

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 28 October 2016 18:33 (eight years ago)

yea sounds right

marcos, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:35 (eight years ago)

so have they fixed the secure email yet so that it doesn't involved remoting to a computer inside the state department and then running lotus notes

mh 😏, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:37 (eight years ago)

Temple Taggart and Gloria Allred giving press conference now.

how's life, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:37 (eight years ago)

Thank you for posting that. The comments on that Facebook feed ...

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:39 (eight years ago)

someone has lost utah, bigly

mh 😏, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:42 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cv36W5NUEAAi86d.jpg:small

mookieproof, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:42 (eight years ago)

Ha.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:43 (eight years ago)

Speaking of:

https://www.facebook.com/fox13newsutah/videos/10154561195465586/

I mean, this may be not much. But who knows?

― Ned Raggett, Friday, October 28, 2016 2:29 PM (twelve minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Seems like not much

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:43 (eight years ago)

Logically I had to deal with a work issue -- but my understanding is she's filing a lawsuit? If so, there is something to that.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:45 (eight years ago)

Sounds like she (Gloria) is trying to further provoke Trump into suing. Which of course he does not really want.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:45 (eight years ago)

Hmm indeed.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:46 (eight years ago)

And yeah this unrelated tweet from earlier today is relevant:

https://twitter.com/LisaBloom/status/792029206683189249

Look who is backing down. (IE Trump not specifically saying he will sue anyone.) Because he knows we'd destroy him at his deposition, and subpoena Apprentice tapes.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:47 (eight years ago)

"I will keep you in suspense"

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:48 (eight years ago)

she's not filing a lawsuit xp

marcos, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:49 (eight years ago)

Based on Pete Williams' comments, the whole email thing just got murkier in general. A speculation making the rounds:

https://twitter.com/GPollowitz/status/792070524679565312

Hmmm. Maybe Weiner's phone and emails from Huma?

Which, hmm indeed.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:49 (eight years ago)

I wonder if this will be similar to the "Going Clear" strategy, tying his tiny litigious hands, because any suit would bring all the really bad stuff into the light.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 18:50 (eight years ago)

I was wondering if this also had to do with that schlub who was busted with a TB of docs - but looking at it now he was a NSA/Booze Allen Hamilton guy.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 28 October 2016 18:51 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/792069375964569600

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:00 (eight years ago)

Interestingly, the conspiracy theories are already kicking in, thus:

https://twitter.com/allahpundit/status/792077418903183360

RUSH: FBI Reopens Case Into Hillary Emails To Take Focus Off WikiLeaks

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:03 (eight years ago)

I find the premise of that confusing

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:04 (eight years ago)

I think the idea here is 'Comey is a Clinton shill, Wikileaks has been causing damage, Comey's doing this to distract us all with a fake investigation that goes nowhere!' Which...okay?

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:07 (eight years ago)

maybe he's inadvertently suggesting the emails are a big nothingburger where the wikileaks have actually riled up berniebros et al?

xpost

acerbic (sic)s (will), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:09 (eight years ago)

There are shorter roads to take to get to anti-Clinton narratives but I guess it depends on your personal history of Comey conspiracies you may have already made public.

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:09 (eight years ago)

yeah that makes zero sense, in less than one hour this thing has kicked up more dust/triggered more Dem panic than everything from Wikileaks put together.

evol j, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:10 (eight years ago)

Ppl are bored, Trump has basically stopped campaigning apparently, Dems love panicking

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:11 (eight years ago)

Someone check on Andrew Sullivan

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:11 (eight years ago)

Now I'm hearing it was...three emails? None from Clinton?

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:12 (eight years ago)

Maybe Comey just wanted everyone to hate him?

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:12 (eight years ago)

the general public will not know or care about this, it's a friday afternoon, some bad trump thing will happen over the weekend and nab the headlines

global tetrahedron, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:14 (eight years ago)

Fuck the media for clinging to the juiciest headline possible despite these clarifications already coming to light

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:15 (eight years ago)

Ppl are bored, Trump has basically stopped campaigning apparently, Dems love panicking

― slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, October 28, 2016 2:11 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I'm sayin'! Short of some catastrophic news story (like, I dunno, Trump saving the pope from a murder attempt at Clinton's hands), this election is pre-emptively sewn up like no other in my personal recollection.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:15 (eight years ago)

i suspect the real legacy of wikileaks is that moving forward no one in politics is ever going to write any real stuff in emails and we basically won't ever have a record of anything

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:15 (eight years ago)

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/29/us/politics/fbi-hillary-clinton-email.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

WASHINGTON — U.S. law enforcement officials said Friday that the new emails uncovered in the closed investigation into Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server were discovered after the F.B.I. seized electronic devices belonging to Huma Abedin and her husband, Anthony Weiner.

The F.B.I. told Congress that it had uncovered new emails related to the closed investigation into whether Mrs. Clinton or her aides had mishandled classified information, potentially reigniting an issue that has weighed on the presidential campaign and offering a lifeline to Donald J. Trump less than two weeks before the election.

flappy bird, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:16 (eight years ago)

http://www.newsweek.com/fbi-reviewing-more-clinton-emails-514825

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:16 (eight years ago)

carlos danger

mookieproof, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:17 (eight years ago)

lmao fuck

flappy bird, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:18 (eight years ago)

nytimes says "closed investigation", newsweek says "In his letter, Comey did not use the phrase being touted by Republicans that the case had been reopened. Technically it was never closed."

people just bash out words on their keyboards and hit "publish" "Y" don't they

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:18 (eight years ago)

this election feels like zeno's paradox. we're never going to get to the 9th are we?

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:21 (eight years ago)

Been saying it feels like approaching an event horizon -- we never actually get there.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:21 (eight years ago)

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-sNPElb4M5A4/U1JdMvJXtOI/AAAAAAADEQA/cD0lpnFlOA0/s1600/scared.jpg

Is this the oppo?

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:22 (eight years ago)

I think the smartest thing for Trump to do with this development is accuse a woman of lying and impugn the honor of a soldier.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:22 (eight years ago)

Is this the oppo?

― Evan, Friday, October 28, 2016

NO -- the event horizon

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

I mean he's right

https://twitter.com/allahpundit/status/792084461101850624

Imagine all the dick pics the FBI is wading through right now to protect national security

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:25 (eight years ago)

searching "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy" on your Twitters is yielding nothing fun

Brevs Mekis (dandydonweiner), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:29 (eight years ago)

from that NY Times article:

Polls have been tightening in recent days, however, amid the daily release of hacked Clinton campaign emails published by WikiLeaks.

...so they're just attributing causality arbitrarily, which probably has just as much to do with reversion to the mean, Republicans panicking less now that the distance from the original damage was done, to the daily release of hacked emails. like do they think these surveys are taken in real time and not over the span of a few days? I mean, the "tightening" race that brought things from a 6.5 point national lead to a 6 point lead? it's barely moved, and some Trump-friendly tracking polls actually spun back towards Hillary in recent days!

I'm sure it's made some impact but it's shit like this that infuriates me.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:29 (eight years ago)

*panicking less now that there's greater distance from the original damage was done

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:30 (eight years ago)

i suspect the real legacy of wikileaks is that moving forward no one in politics is ever going to write any real stuff in emails and we basically won't ever have a record of anything

― blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, October 28, 2016 2:15 PM (ten minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I don't know how this isn't already a thing. I never write anything in a work email that I wouldn't be okay with disseminating to anyyone I work with (and also we use secret nicknames when discussing people in a derogatory fashion so there's always plausible deniability).

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:30 (eight years ago)

now that they think the election is in the bag they can't help but drive the horserace and snag a few more views since it couldn't possibly hurt right? they're addicts is the problem. once the immediate threat seems to have passed they go back to huffing page views.

Mordy, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:31 (eight years ago)

I don't know how this isn't already a thing. I never write anything in a work email that I wouldn't be okay with disseminating to anyyone I work with (and also we use secret nicknames when discussing people in a derogatory fashion so there's always plausible deniability).

― I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch),

except for the parenthetical this is what I've been doing for, oh, 12 years now.

I don't use secret nicknames: I just insult the person to his or her face.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:32 (eight years ago)

i suspect the real legacy of wikileaks is that moving forward no one in politics is ever going to write any real stuff in emails and we basically won't ever have a record of anything

The best way to avoid future controversy is just write the important stuff on a secret server and not tell anyone about it. And then, after 10 or so years, bury it in your backyard with a note saying not to read it. Also, you should probably back up your secret server on another server and keep that one in a fire box in your house, in case something happens to the other server. But don't tell anyone about any of them, that's what makes it a secret! Then if anyone finds it and says, hey, is this a secret server, say "well, not anymore, it isn't!" And then kill that person with a shovel and bury them near the first server. And for god's sake, don't tell anyone you've killed anyone. This is the most important part.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:34 (eight years ago)

have to come to the conclusion that Deflategate was God's dry run for how he'd orchestrate (i.e. fuck around with) the prez election. endless, full of plot reversals, and featuring an orange villain.

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:37 (eight years ago)

I don't use secret nicknames: I just insult the person to his or her face.

lol Al

A guy I worked with a couple of years ago barely communicated via email or text. It was always the phone, and he refused to leave messages. He is currently being sued for a seven figure amount and I'm sure opposing counsel is pulling their hair out that there truly is almost no electronic communication from a CEO.

Brevs Mekis (dandydonweiner), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:38 (eight years ago)

I was walking home from a hot dog place this afternoon thinking up Gawker-esque Trump insults, and the best one I came up with was "a tall pile of excrement from a dog that ate too many Circus Peanuts."

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:44 (eight years ago)

That's an insult to both circus peanuts and excrement.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:47 (eight years ago)

That's an insult to both circus peanuts and excrement.

You're half right, but I'll let you choose which half.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

I know a number of academics at state universities who studiously avoid anything remotely gossipy in email because people they know have ended up in embarrassing situations following FOIA requests.

joygoat, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

if these aren't from her server, weren't found on her devices, and aren't from her, what is the relevance to this case at all?

akm, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:51 (eight years ago)

They were emails. EMAILS! Lock her up!!!!

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:52 (eight years ago)

if these aren't from her server, weren't found on her devices, and aren't from her, what is the relevance to this case at all?

― akm, Friday, October 28, 2016 3:51 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Presumably the content is related to Clinton stuff?

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:53 (eight years ago)

https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14650328_10208861835842184_8505979143722604893_n.jpg?oh=4f4a521455a5d82bf43d6d417a88d138&oe=58D4C4BA

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

That's an insult to both circus peanuts and excrement.
You're half right, but I'll let you choose which half.

― Josh in Chicago, Friday, October 28, 2016 3:50 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

http://ediblegovernment.com/trump%20a%20180.jpg

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

i hope it's just a bunch of emails from huma telling tony to fuck off forever

nomar, Friday, 28 October 2016 19:57 (eight years ago)

I demand that we see everything that's tied to Weiner.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:59 (eight years ago)

And the method used in binding said things to Weiner.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Friday, 28 October 2016 19:59 (eight years ago)

Election 2016: Pussies and Weiners

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Friday, 28 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

"Someone said 'election' and Weiner heard 'erection!"

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:01 (eight years ago)

fwiw the betting markets moved a bit due to this news, as did the stock markets, but the AP report about it not being on Clinton's server sent the stock markets back the right direction so I suspect the betting markets will follow and there isn't anything to this.

but gee...Trump Foundation story took forever to get legs, and still never got the exposure/traction that it should have. shit like this blows up in 5 minutes before anybody has any damn details.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:04 (eight years ago)

Rigged!

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Friday, 28 October 2016 20:07 (eight years ago)

Sad!

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Friday, 28 October 2016 20:07 (eight years ago)

but gee...Trump Foundation story took forever to get legs, and still never got the exposure/traction that it should have. shit like this blows up in 5 minutes before anybody has any damn details.

uh Weiner dude

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 20:13 (eight years ago)

many sites and orgs are walking back the story in its new context but a lot of the majors are still touting this based on the understanding from noon. infuriating.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:18 (eight years ago)

'The news this morning is – this is bigger than Watergate,' Trump said later in his speech.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:22 (eight years ago)

I like how him saying is implied to mean anything at all. He always says shit like that and usually based on much less

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:25 (eight years ago)

saying that*

Evan, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:25 (eight years ago)

I heard the news today, oh boy, it was bigger than Watergate.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:28 (eight years ago)

the idea that this announcement will affect the outcome of the election is comical

Brevs Mekis (dandydonweiner), Friday, 28 October 2016 20:28 (eight years ago)

"Why did FBI Director James Comey shock Washington on Friday with an announcement that the FBI “has learned of the existence of emails” related to Hillary Clinton’s private email server, and what does it mean?

The truth is Comey didn’t have a choice. Because the new information followed his sworn testimony about the case, Comey was obligated by Department of Justice rules to keep the relevant committees apprised.

Under oath Comey had stated that the bureau had completed its review. Once he learned that there were new emails that required examination, Comey had to notify Congress that he had to amend his testimony because it was no longer true."

so Alfred otm basically. people should quit being angry at Comey and take umbrage at the news networks who raced to the headline

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:29 (eight years ago)

this reminds me of the BAlloon Boy incident

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:38 (eight years ago)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/eric-garners-daughter-blasts-hillary-clinton-campaign

Brevs Mekis (dandydonweiner), Friday, 28 October 2016 20:38 (eight years ago)

That Balloon Boy dad went on to invent a wall-mounted back scratcher that lets you scratch your back like a bear.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:41 (eight years ago)

I'm more pissed at the bedwetting Dems on my FB wall who seem to need woeful news like some people need sex

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 20:48 (eight years ago)

I'm more pissed at the bedwetting Dems on my FB wall who seem to need woeful news like some people need sex

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, October 28, 2016 4:48 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

truuuuuuuuuuuue

marcos, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:53 (eight years ago)

so annoying

marcos, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:53 (eight years ago)

PredictWise already shifted a point back towards Hillary so I hope Trump and co enjoyed that momentarily feeling of bliss

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 20:54 (eight years ago)

I'm more pissed at the bedwetting Dems on my FB wall who seem to need woeful news like some people need sex

Alfred, you are fascinated with sex and don't care about public policy

“a tub of horses” (Myonga Vön Bontee), Friday, 28 October 2016 20:57 (eight years ago)

^ can empathise

more like dork enlightenment lol (Bananaman Begins), Friday, 28 October 2016 21:01 (eight years ago)

Lead story on the BBC News, "dramatic development", "serious consequences".

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Friday, 28 October 2016 21:03 (eight years ago)

Fuck the BBC though, obviously.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Friday, 28 October 2016 21:04 (eight years ago)

lol the BBC News seems to be lagging quite a bit behind other networks, who have amended their bylines.

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 21:06 (eight years ago)

really hope Hillary doesn't lose the Gloucester vote

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 21:06 (eight years ago)

Gilda Radner will need to be resurrected for tomorrow's cold-open

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Friday, 28 October 2016 21:07 (eight years ago)

Feel bad for Iago who missed his one hour window to gloat

Mordy, Friday, 28 October 2016 21:10 (eight years ago)

he was probably 47% of the way finished with a post

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 21:13 (eight years ago)

lol the BBC News seems to be lagging quite a bit behind other networks, who have amended their bylines.

That's the BBC for you, living on their reputation. Have they confused Clinton with Corbyn? It's usually him they're trying to sabotage.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Friday, 28 October 2016 21:15 (eight years ago)

i thought krugman was going to rupture an aneurysm today. that guy's evolution into a political hack has been pretty sad to watch

k3vin k., Friday, 28 October 2016 21:28 (eight years ago)

Ugh, Frank Luntz. On Newsnight with the shit-stirring just now.

jane burkini (suzy), Friday, 28 October 2016 22:06 (eight years ago)

Boy it's getting weird out there:

RUSH: FBI Has Internal Polling That Shows Trump WINNING

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:30 (eight years ago)

I do love this really bizarre counternarrative happening.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:30 (eight years ago)

it reminds me of when two names get mishmashed together on a promo mailing because a company bought poorly managed data from a third party only with news stories

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:32 (eight years ago)

i'm glad our long national nightmare will soon be over. u know if the rule was the first tuesday of nov no matter what it'd be over in just 4 days.

Mordy, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:33 (eight years ago)

Don't think I haven't thought of that a few times now!

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:33 (eight years ago)

i've been not hating the 538 podcast lately but i turned on today's episode and immediately they were like "the email story broke while we were recording this podcast. what will this mean for the election? we are on emergency podcast watch" and i was just like i do not have the capacity to listen to more of this and listened to an inane fantasy football podcast instead.

Mordy, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:37 (eight years ago)

i'd rather listen to the gout commercial my friend recorded 5 years ago

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:39 (eight years ago)

"Gout: It's What's For Dinner."

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:40 (eight years ago)

Early voting now past 18 million. Be willing to bet we'll hit...maybe 30 to 35 million by next Friday? The overall amount of early voting in 2012 was 32 million.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:41 (eight years ago)

Josh Marshall:

From the first Comey has handled this like no other case remotely similar has ever been handled. His July statement and subsequent testimony may have made this letter inevitable. But the big picture has been a public litigation, shall we say, of an investigation which Comey said in July no reasonable prosecutor would have charged. Now what seems to have happened is that investigators found additional emails from the same private server which now need to be reviewed for classified material. For the reasons I noted in my earlier post, it does not seem likely that that will change the decision that was made in July. The quantity of emails that had whatever level of classified information was never the key factual question that drove the decision to recommend against prosecution. And yet, his way of announcing this has created a totally different impression.

I don't think Comey acted in bad faith. But in its totality, this has been very poorly handled. I understand his desire to operate with the greatest transparency possible. But this has been badly mishandled.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 22:50 (eight years ago)

I wonder how happy Obama is with his "bipartisan" appointee

Οὖτις, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:51 (eight years ago)

this won't move the needle much

nomar, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:52 (eight years ago)

i mean maybe a little bit here and there but it's more about raising a certain specter again than it is anything damning. it's not the hollywood access tape.

nomar, Friday, 28 October 2016 22:53 (eight years ago)

I wonder how happy Obama is with his "bipartisan" appointee

― Οὖτις, Friday, October 28, 2016

"bipartisan" in Washington-ese means "piss everybody off except Ron Fournier."

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 22:53 (eight years ago)

Clinton's going to speak on this in a few minutes.

clemenza, Friday, 28 October 2016 23:01 (eight years ago)

in the form of a freestyle verse

Neanderthal, Friday, 28 October 2016 23:03 (eight years ago)

then later she will pray on it

Οὖτις, Friday, 28 October 2016 23:05 (eight years ago)

Get used to it -- this is how she'll present herself in 12 days.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 28 October 2016 23:10 (eight years ago)

After Clinton is elected she's going to discuss with her advisors about how to react.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 28 October 2016 23:37 (eight years ago)

ahh, DailyKOS joining the fray and, quite in character, making an equally stupid demand after an afternoon of really stupid hoopla. I should never scroll below Linzer's forecast:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/28/1587968/-NBC-Pete-Williams-they-are-not-e-mails-from-Clinton-I-say-w-out-clarification-Comey-must-resign

Neanderthal, Saturday, 29 October 2016 02:21 (eight years ago)

Also here http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/28/opinions/fbi-director-comey-should-resign-opinion-callan/index.html

Evan, Saturday, 29 October 2016 02:34 (eight years ago)

Aaaand the follow up

https://twitter.com/randygdub/status/792197825966723077

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Saturday, 29 October 2016 02:57 (eight years ago)

Feel bad for Iago who missed his one hour window to gloat

― Mordy, Friday, October 28, 2016 5:10 PM (five hours ago) Bookmark

Eh, I'm resigned to her winning. But I do think they are getting out in front of one more bit of info to come out, which won't have any effect. But it was amusing for a couple hours to watch Neera et al on twitter running around with their hair on fire.

Iago Galdston, Saturday, 29 October 2016 02:59 (eight years ago)

As if you all aren't sick of talk of what's looming:

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/792210310572732416

"We're not even close to the final surprise."

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/792212396202876928

1. Relax, people. This is a fascinating and strange circumstance. It's a set of contingent factors I and others don't control.

2. Timing and targeting matters. For instance, why do you think the hits on Trump abusing women popped for the last 3 weeks?

3. Hint: early voting window. And you sweet, slow Trumpkins who howl you don't believe these claims never realize; you're not the audience.

4. And the louder you scream, the more you drive the suburban moms who loathe Bad Touch Donnie away. Also, those hit were during a window..

5. ...where Trump had no ground game...oh wait. He still has no ground game.

6. There are host of factors, and a whole bunch of stories, and a whole cast of characters.

7. No one's going to leave anything on the table. The last weekend is going to be bonkers.

We'll see, I suppose...

Evan, Saturday, 29 October 2016 05:11 (eight years ago)

It's a video of Trump having sex with Rick Wilson, isn't it

erry red flag (f. hazel), Saturday, 29 October 2016 05:47 (eight years ago)

Lol if anyone still believes in Rick Wilson's magic oppo drop tbh

more like dork enlightenment lol (Bananaman Begins), Saturday, 29 October 2016 08:28 (eight years ago)

I early voted yesterday and there were a group of olds way ahead of me in line. I overheard them say something like "and in Rochester, people are taking their 'I Voted' stickers across the street to the cemetary and putting them on [inaudible] gravestone." And I assumed that this was part of some conversation about voter fraud and dead people on the rolls.

And then this morning I saw an article about voter fraud that's being caught already in this election, so I decided to check out the gravestone thing. Turns out is was this and the inaudible portion of the conversation I overheard was "Susan B. Anthony's".

how's life, Saturday, 29 October 2016 10:49 (eight years ago)

That's kind of lovely.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 29 October 2016 13:34 (eight years ago)

Vis slate

The emails didn’t come from Clinton; there was no withholding of evidence from either Clinton or her campaign; and the emails themselves came from outside her server.

Do they know they're not connected to the server? My understanding is that they are most likely emails huma forwarded to herself to print out for clinton, meaning thwy were state department emails ahe took off the internal server for the sake of convenience. (She said it was hard to print on the state sept server). I could see some of these emails containing mishandled classified info, why not? Also they were clinton's emails -- emails sent to clinton -- huma just had them to print them out, if we follow the statements she made in her deposition.

The impulse to declare this obviously nothing is understandable -- i want clinton to win too -- but i dont think the left does itself any favors by misrepresenting the case

Treeship, Saturday, 29 October 2016 13:49 (eight years ago)

Like if the state department was using the correct protocol, im not sure abdein would have been allowed to forward things to her yahoo account

Treeship, Saturday, 29 October 2016 13:51 (eight years ago)

xpost re susan b: well fuck that blindsided me and is making me cry

though she denies it to the press, (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Saturday, 29 October 2016 13:52 (eight years ago)

Lol if anyone still believes in Rick Wilson's magic oppo drop tbh

― more like dork enlightenment lol (Bananaman Begins), Saturday, October 29, 2016 4:28 AM (five hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Obviously I'm excited about the prospect of such a thing but I'm open to it possibly turning out to be malarkey as well.

Evan, Saturday, 29 October 2016 14:04 (eight years ago)

i voted yesterday at the library in allston (boston has had early voting open since monday). i waited in line for about half an hour, and was pretty pleased by the demographic mix of the turnout. we have a couple of local measures on the ballot including legal weed.

also i wonder how peter "suffrage was bad, and so was gawker" thiel feels about that sticker tradition

maura, Saturday, 29 October 2016 14:27 (eight years ago)

This morning, at the farmer's market I go to, a very well-known female news correspondent married to an ex-Clinton person told us all [let me paraphrase]: 'WTF FBI? They don't have anything 'new' as such, so why bother everyone with this now?'

jane burkini (suzy), Saturday, 29 October 2016 15:04 (eight years ago)

who was it

akm, Saturday, 29 October 2016 15:30 (eight years ago)

Her initials are CA.

jane burkini (suzy), Saturday, 29 October 2016 15:34 (eight years ago)

Like if the state department was using the correct protocol, im not sure abdein would have been allowed to forward things to her yahoo account

Uh no, I wouldn't even dare try to enforce a rule like this. A CISO who dared speak such a thing like "block all forwards and CCs to personal accounts" would be tarred and feathered immediately

El Tomboto, Saturday, 29 October 2016 15:36 (eight years ago)

http://www.vocativ.com/371619/stasis-2016-did-this-long-tiring-campaign-even-change-anything/

With just over a week to go until the presidential election, it’s almost hard to believe that this seemingly never-ending campaign season is coming to a close. But while the race to the White House has felt like a tumultuous and chaotic affair — sexual assault claims, nasty women, the improbably eleventh hour reemergence of Anthony Weiner — polling data suggests that not much has changed over the last year.

Speak for yourselves. We banned Gabbneb and Morbius.

El Tomboto, Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:07 (eight years ago)

This email thing is gonna be a nothingburger that just ends Comey's career more conclusively than it's already ended

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:17 (eight years ago)

The impulse to declare this obviously nothing is understandable -- i want clinton to win too -- but i dont think the left does itself any favors by misrepresenting the case

i thought comey was full of shit when he reprimanded clinton for being careless after his investigation found nothing to indict but since the right had been baying for imprisonment for so long it seemed prudent to just shrug and take the tainted win. but this is clearly just more in a pattern. if there's a crime - indict. anything else is bullshit trying to tip the scales.

Mordy, Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:21 (eight years ago)

How fast will comey be fired after hillary wins

Οὖτις, Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:27 (eight years ago)

so i was seeing notes that it was like, 3 emails, and that article said more like 1,000 emails. the latter seems more believable, I think?

the betting markets aren't real fazed. They're definitely down from the 84% or so they were at (on average), but since hitting a low of 79%, it's been bouncing back and forth and is now at 81, so if the people betting actual money aren't that worried, I'm not.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:30 (eight years ago)

weirdly the ABC tracking poll, which had Hillary up 12 points af ew days ago, is down to 2 now, but they say it's mostly due to the weighting in regards to voter turnout (people who were going to stay home returning to Trump) as opposed to Hillary 'losing' any support.

also am going to lol if Trump thinks all of these sexual abuse allegations are just going to up and blow away after the election. and he will blink if he threatens to sue anybody, as he already did yesterday.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:32 (eight years ago)

idk if ppl betting money actually have more at stake in this than the rest of us and if they're non-US residents they might have less.

Mordy, Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:32 (eight years ago)

remember when his presence persuaded John Ashcroft's wife to stick her tongue out at Andrew Card and Alberto Gonzalez

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:32 (eight years ago)

Someone check on Treeship: is he sitting on a ledge again?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:35 (eight years ago)

Im ok. On a couch.

Treeship, Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:36 (eight years ago)

Eichenwald's piece p much says it's about printed emails. boy the media fucked this one

http://www.newsweek.com/hillary-clinton-emails-fbi-comey-donald-trump-anthony-weiner-huma-abedin-514918?rel=most_read1

Neanderthal, Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:37 (eight years ago)

fuck jim comey and the media alike. this is such a shitshow.

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:55 (eight years ago)

Im ok. On a couch.

but is the couch on a ledge

Guayaquil (eephus!), Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:57 (eight years ago)

hope not, for ledge's sake

mookieproof, Saturday, 29 October 2016 16:59 (eight years ago)

the couch isn't in Gear!'s omar little's house is it?

Neanderthal, Saturday, 29 October 2016 17:00 (eight years ago)

How fast will comey be fired after hillary wins

He's in the job until 2023 or he quits.
That's why he can pull dumb stunts in defiance of the AG, who has only ever been the nominal boss of the FBI.

What's more likely is that the 10-year term and independence from the rest of DOJ begins to get re-evaluated and reformed. Long overdue.

El Tomboto, Saturday, 29 October 2016 17:07 (eight years ago)

The conspiracy writes itself without even being wrong. "They said they reopened the investigation and found 1000s of incriminating emails, and now they are saying they found nothing!"

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 29 October 2016 17:23 (eight years ago)

However bad Comey may be, he can't be half as bad as J. Edgar.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Saturday, 29 October 2016 17:30 (eight years ago)

The other thing about the emails is that unlike the summer, now the alternative is "sexual predator" Trump, and new inquiries into the same thing have diminished returns, pub op wise.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 29 October 2016 17:44 (eight years ago)

Yeah that's an abysmally low bar. The FBI is maybe about five years out from revealing itself to be the same order of decayed institution run by incompetent maniacs that the Secret Service got outed as in 2014.

The meritocracy is batting just above the Mendoza line at this point. That's literally my biggest fear about the Clinton administration: that she'll be no better than Obama at hiring people. See also: http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2016/10/can-this-please-the-end-of-republican-daddies-in-democratic-administrations

El Tomboto, Saturday, 29 October 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

XP to Aimless re J. Edgar

El Tomboto, Saturday, 29 October 2016 17:47 (eight years ago)

We need more magicians in the Cabinet IMO

Neanderthal, Saturday, 29 October 2016 17:49 (eight years ago)

http://orangeshow.org/media/files/event/d9299766/gabinetedrcaligari6.jpg

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 29 October 2016 17:58 (eight years ago)

An entertaining read:

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/trump-campaign-final-days.html

Ned Raggett, Saturday, 29 October 2016 19:20 (eight years ago)

bernie sanders' response to the dakota access pipeline issue:

http://www.sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/sanders-calls-on-president-to-intervene-in-dakota-access-pipeline-dispute

for reference, clinton's response:

http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2016/10/27/clinton-campaign-responds-dapl-face-166252

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Saturday, 29 October 2016 19:21 (eight years ago)

lol comments thread

melfig
Hello Indian Country Today Media Network, I invite you to cover Green Party candidate Jill Stein and running mate Ajamu Baraka's response to the egregious human rights abuses suffered by indigenous resisters to DAPL yesterday and throughout the encampment. Please read their response here: http://www.jill2016.com/standingwithstandingrock The Stein/Baraka campaign calls for honoring the 1851 Treaty of Fort Laramie, as well as the right to free, prior, and informed consent under the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. We call for an immediate halt to the construction of the Dakota Access pipeline and all attempts on the part of police to remove the water protectors. If you would like further comment from the campaign, you can reach me at pr✧✧✧@jill2✧✧✧.c✧✧. Respectfully, Meleiza Figueroa Press Director, Stein/Baraka Campaign 2016

though she denies it to the press, (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Saturday, 29 October 2016 19:28 (eight years ago)

David Fahrenthold at the Washington Post posts his overall wrap-up story on Trump and charity. In sum, unsurprisingly, dude's a piece of work.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-boasts-of-his-philanthropy-but-his-giving-falls-short-of-his-words/2016/10/29/b3c03106-9ac7-11e6-a0ed-ab0774c1eaa5_story.html

Ned Raggett, Saturday, 29 October 2016 20:27 (eight years ago)

Did y'all know that the Dems have only appointed one FBI on its history?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 29 October 2016 20:34 (eight years ago)

from ned's link:

Instead he got sidetracked on something any political operative could have told him was a losing battle: feuding with the bereaved Muslim-American parents of a soldier who had died in Iraq.

“You do know you just attacked a Gold Star family?” one adviser warned Trump.

Trump didn’t know what a Gold Star family was: “What’s that?” he asked.

lettered and hapful (symsymsym), Saturday, 29 October 2016 20:46 (eight years ago)

I didn't know what a Gold Star family was before that controversy

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Sunday, 30 October 2016 03:13 (eight years ago)

Evan McMullin ‏@Evan_McMullin 33m33 minutes ago

.@realDonaldTrump, Yes you’ve never heard of me because while you were harassing women at beauty pageants, I was fighting terrorists abroad.

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Sunday, 30 October 2016 03:19 (eight years ago)

NOICE BURN!

flappy bird, Sunday, 30 October 2016 03:39 (eight years ago)

XD

flappy bird, Sunday, 30 October 2016 03:39 (eight years ago)

Fart

Neanderthal, Sunday, 30 October 2016 03:40 (eight years ago)

Seriously this McMullin dude is just as much a regressive piece of shit as most Republicans getting really sick of ppl building him up

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Sunday, 30 October 2016 16:08 (eight years ago)

Oh, I know, but I get a kick out of anyone who is willing to take shots at Trump, the kind that they know will land. He's already pissed of Trump more than the entire feckless primary slate.

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Sunday, 30 October 2016 16:09 (eight years ago)

Worth checking the Election Project dude's Twitter feed from here on in:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject

He's noting that he's seeing no dropoff at all on the Dem side since Friday -- if anything a notable increase in both NC and NV -- and per other commenters like Wang etc figures everyone's pretty well locked in no matter what.

Overall vote totals now at 21 million and increasing. Per posts by other polling sources today, 38% of NC's likely voters have already voted and are breaking heavily for HRC.

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 30 October 2016 16:22 (eight years ago)

i honestly can't see this email thing affecting anyone's decision to vote for HRC. what is going to change anyone's mind at this point?

akm, Sunday, 30 October 2016 16:29 (eight years ago)

Change that number in NC -- only 29% so far but again, a strong HRC lead. FL tighter but still a lead.

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 30 October 2016 16:31 (eight years ago)

xp is the theory that it could make people who prefer her to Trump, but don't especially like either, decide not to vote at all?

UK media seems to be going crazy over this story, writing about like it's totally upended the whole election, what I've seen of the US media seems a little more measured?

soref, Sunday, 30 October 2016 16:35 (eight years ago)

what I've seen of the US media seems a little more measured?

It had drift back to reasonable reporting by Friday night, but when it initially broke they made it sound like the sky was falling.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Sunday, 30 October 2016 16:45 (eight years ago)

today NYT's stories seem to be "Hillary is over it" and "DOJ chastises Comey"

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Sunday, 30 October 2016 16:49 (eight years ago)

Right the polls seem to fluctuate based on whether people are more likely to think first and foremost that Clinton is a somewhat craven career politician or that Trump is a completely repulsive incompetent scumbag. For some reason things that remind of them of the former seem to briefly override voters concerns about the latter long enough to make them tell pollsters they've decided to vote for Trump or not to vote or vote 3rd party.

One bad call from barely losing to (Alex in SF), Sunday, 30 October 2016 16:49 (eight years ago)

Good summary of the Trump isn't a successful businessman thing here - https://www.quora.com/Why-do-people-forget-that-Donald-Trump-is-a-successful-businessman/answer/William-Murphy-50?srid=ufXd

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Sunday, 30 October 2016 16:49 (eight years ago)

I keep reading stuff like this on the shitter parts of the internet -

I'm British. The thing that makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever, is how, America, a country with over 400 million people, is left with 2 of the worst presidential candidates ever.

And can't quite work out how people can still think this. I mean, really, in all of US history you don't think there are more than a couple of candidates worst than Hilary?

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Sunday, 30 October 2016 16:53 (eight years ago)

My wife and I voted early in what I imagine in a south Minneapolis district that's probably about as blue a district as you could find. We're doing a brisk business, the volunteer staff was doing on the spot absentee apps and new registrations, very efficiently, line snaked way out into the hallway... Keith Ellison will remain our House rep for as long as he likes, imagine HRC campaign would have liked the scene. Overall, great experience I expect I will do this in all elections moving forward

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:04 (eight years ago)

Also:

I'm British. The thing that makes absolutely no sense to me whatsoever, is how, America, a country with over 400 million people, is left with 2 of the worst presidential candidates ever.

We can't all have such excellent national leadership as present day UK

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:06 (eight years ago)

On This Week this morning, Tim Kaine came right out and said that the Clinton campaign basically believes that the only people who give a fuck about emails at this point are people who were never going to vote for Clinton anyway.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:14 (eight years ago)

i think this comey thing shouldn't matter, but it does. yeah there's no rational reason this should change anybody's mind, but the "swing vote" people don't decide on how they're going to vote based on rationality. you could also wind up galvanizing republicans who will turn out to vote against "crooked hillary"- a big factor in this election is going to be who stays home- and you have a very high number of "undecideds" at this point, which translates roughly to "they're both awful". in this scenario, the person who's talked about more in the press is the candidate who's at a disadvantage.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:14 (eight years ago)

I find the Princeton polls site a pretty reassuring read, especially since he was the one who called Trump winning the GOP primary despite the taking heads saying it couldn't happen

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:18 (eight years ago)

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith 3h3 hours ago

Yesterday was a lackluster day of early voting for Dems in Florida...only 3.5k more Ds than Rs voted EIP. In '12, Ds>Rs on 1st Sat by 40k

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:20 (eight years ago)

We've had shitty weather for a couple days in South Florida btw

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:21 (eight years ago)

We can't all have such excellent national leadership as present day UK

boom headshot

Mordy, Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:22 (eight years ago)

sooo is that Rick Wilson oppo drop coming er no

frogbs, Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:35 (eight years ago)

no

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:37 (eight years ago)

The only questions in my mind at this point are what the margin of HRC's victory will be and whether she will have enough coattails to flip the Senate and narrow the House to a thin R margin. I hope so, but I'm not betting on a big move down ballot.

Additionally, that often promised big oppo drop is past its sell date, imo. If there is going to be some kind of big, new scandal hung around Trump's neck, it had better be done immediately or not at all, because last second accusations are much more likely to royally piss off voters than to change minds. With campaigns now approaching 18 months, voters rightly think there's no valid excuse for dropping big new oppo a couple of days before the election, unless it is false and can't withstand scrutiny.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:38 (eight years ago)

the gop will find a way to delegitimize any dem president. they've been doing it for 20 years

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:44 (eight years ago)

Wilson's saying the Dem campaign knows exactly what the two stories are, and I suspect he's figuring -- which I can see -- that the goal is to crowd out the final week. What's been interesting to my mind is that the Daily Beast in particular has been digging up some more tapes and stories lately showing how Trump is shitty re women. Vaporware is increasingly likely but still; Liz Mair's post about someone not wanting to risk breaking an NDA remains sound to my mind.

Mind you, Wilson dropped a rather -- or seemingly -- random claim about Trump's "Canadian girlfriend" the other night. Of course that could be even more vaporous. He also claims that these two stories have nothing to do with the rape trial.

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

Yeah, if that stupid oppo Snuffleupagus deigns to appear, based on what Wilson implied it's a last minute drop intended to dissuade conservative Election Day turnout right before the day itself, which means dominating the news cycle beginning at the latest, late next week. But it seems unlikely it will come from Clinton, because if you have a kill shot, why wait until the last minute? And for that matter, if it is serious bad news for Trump, and it's not coming from Clinton, then why has it not come out so far? So basically, who the fuck knows.

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:47 (eight years ago)

http://www.canadiangirlfriend.ca

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:52 (eight years ago)

Go Cross Border Shopping...For Love!

"I have a girlfriend who lives in Canada."

American men and women are vowing to leave the United States if Donald Trump becomes president and British citizens who voted "Remain" are wondering what to do, post-Brexit.

Rest assured, Canadians will welcome you (and your cute accents) with open arms. Especially the single women, of which there are multitudes.

Maybe the girl of your dreams has been eating poutine and listening to Drake all along (she liked him from when he was on Degrassi).

Find her with the help of Canadian Girlfriend.

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 30 October 2016 17:53 (eight years ago)

at this point in the cycle i think i am actually more sick of rick wilson than i am of donald trump, which is surprising.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Sunday, 30 October 2016 18:18 (eight years ago)

Yeah, I'm about ready to FP the next mention of an opportunity drop

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Sunday, 30 October 2016 18:19 (eight years ago)

On This Week this morning, Tim Kaine came right out and said that the Clinton campaign basically believes that the only people who give a fuck about emails at this point are people who were never going to vote for Clinton anyway.

He's not wrong but it changes the narrative - one of Hillary's big strengths leading up to the election (which could counteract any "shy Trump voter" movement) is that the momentum has been on her side for such a long time that her victory looks all but certain, which ultimately dissuades Trump supporters from voting. Now they've been tossed a lifeline so they might be a bit galvanized.

frogbs, Sunday, 30 October 2016 18:20 (eight years ago)

*oppo

XP

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Sunday, 30 October 2016 18:20 (eight years ago)

frogbs, can you please not use "changes the narrative" unless you're making fun of Chuck Todd

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 30 October 2016 18:21 (eight years ago)

political media's conventional wisdom about 'the narrative' resembles business media's conventional wisdom about 'the invisible hand of the market'.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 30 October 2016 18:32 (eight years ago)

I'll read any "end of the campaign" article with good interviews, but the nymag one annoyed me:

If the Republican Party of the past was full of rich fiscal conservatives who benefited from free trade, low taxes, low regulation, and low-wage immigrant labor, Bannon envisions a new party that is home to working-class whites, grassroots conservatives, libertarians, populists, and disaffected millennials who had gravitated toward the Bernie Sanders campaign — in other words, Trump supporters.

It’s clear that this until-now-­underserved group has tremendous potential, both commercially and politically.

You've literally just pointed out that this group isn't a group!

Andrew Farrell, Sunday, 30 October 2016 18:33 (eight years ago)

Opportunity Drops

imago, Sunday, 30 October 2016 18:37 (eight years ago)

Bannon envisions a new party that is home to (...) in other words, Trump supporters, and still other words, a bunch of voters who, in total, aren't enough to win very many elections.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 30 October 2016 18:41 (eight years ago)

UK media seems to be going crazy over this story, writing about like it's totally upended the whole election, what I've seen of the US media seems a little more measured?

^this. The tabloidization of all aspects of the British media continues apace. The fucking BBC should be ashamed of itself, Nation Shall Speak Pish Unto Nation.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Sunday, 30 October 2016 19:08 (eight years ago)

i have a little bit of pity for comey, sure, but god the guy has astonishingly poor political instincts for a beltway guy. first he gets pummeled by the republicans in a show hearing for choosing to use harsh words to describe clinton's behaviour while recommending against indictment, now he's going to get absolutely pounded for sowing massive levels of fear, uncertainty, and doubt the week before a major election. still, his inability to control the levels of fud created by his statement does smack of professional negligence.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Sunday, 30 October 2016 19:36 (eight years ago)

I imagine it's more of a case of him falling on his sword for a comfy private sector retirement, but maybe I watch too much House of Cards.

Fetchboy, Sunday, 30 October 2016 19:40 (eight years ago)

This does seem like the kind of thing a guy who wants out of his job would do

Οὖτις, Sunday, 30 October 2016 19:44 (eight years ago)

who knows what goes on in the mind of an fbi director

Treeship, Sunday, 30 October 2016 19:46 (eight years ago)

Not a lot, presumably

Οὖτις, Sunday, 30 October 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

It seems like he's taking the bet that hillary has the election no matter what, and he's trying to protect the FBI's rep from overzealous republicans by giving them something they want. I think this is repugnant and that his letter is bullshit, but i don't think it necessarily shows poor political instincts, particularly for a guy with a 10-year term.

intheblanks, Sunday, 30 October 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

did anyone find this defense of Comey's actions convincing? it seems to make sense to me, but other ppl here know more about this story I do

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/if-hillary-wins-shell-be-grateful-for-comeys-move?mbid=social_twitter

(I guess it's more a defense of the decision to make an announcement, rather than the form the announcement took, which I think is what a lot of people are criticising?)

soref, Sunday, 30 October 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

Comey was damned if he did, damned if he didn't, bound to catch grief from one of two sides. Either the side of precedent, normal practice, his boss, every expert in the country. Or the side of a bunch of loonies, who has lied about this shit for several years at this point. I mean, what's a guy to do? Dillema!

Frederik B, Sunday, 30 October 2016 19:59 (eight years ago)

like, he wants the FBI to be seen as the neutral institutional arbiter, and he's willing to piss off the left because they just don't have the full-throated machine that will run a 6-month 24-hour-a-day anti-FBI campaign that the right will. I'm not defending him, I think Comey fucking sucks and Obama should not have appointed him. But this seems like a calculated decision to cover his ass, not a political blunder.

intheblanks, Sunday, 30 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

xp

intheblanks, Sunday, 30 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

Yeah, if I understand correctly, he had an obligation to inform congress there was new information, but the ambiguous manner in which he did so is the stinky part.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Sunday, 30 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

I don’t know who’s more overrated for bravery: Colin Powell, who was played for a sucker by the Bush administration pressing its non-existent case for war before the United Nations; or James Comey. He deserves kudos for defying the Oval Office’s insistence on certifying the legality of warrantless wiretapping, culminating in a hospital room showdown with a semi-comatose John Ashcroft. But he certified the program anyway after reassurances from the Bush people. Nothing brightens the day of Ron Fournier types in DC than defying one’s bosses; defiance guarantees a man employment in an opposing administration while keeping loyalties intact to his own party. Earlier this year Comey bemoaned a “Ferguson effect” on recent spikes in crime despite admitting he had no statistics to support the claim (“I don’t know for sure,” he said. “Something has happened.” Thanks, Jim. Don’t read my palm.)

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 30 October 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

no, because conspiracy theorists are going to come up with wacky stuff no matter what comey says or does. therefore, it would be unwise of him to base any of his decisions on how they might look to conspiracy theorists.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Sunday, 30 October 2016 20:02 (eight years ago)

The Internet makes Donald sad:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/792734426912337920

Ned Raggett, Sunday, 30 October 2016 20:29 (eight years ago)

There's not a lot of space to defend Comey here. It's a total CYA move made to address an earlier unforced error and he's been the goddamn number two at DOJ before so it's not like he doesn't understand the policies and rationale behind them. Peter Principle.

El Tomboto, Sunday, 30 October 2016 20:30 (eight years ago)

One or two points won't lose Hillary the election but it might keep the Senate red.

Mordy, Sunday, 30 October 2016 20:56 (eight years ago)

Putting aside how serious the e-mails are--inclined to agree that they're duplicates, or not especially significant--what does it mean that the field agents held on to the discovery until now? Does it look like they're trying to protect Clinton or cost her the election? I'd definitely say the latter's more plausible, though obviously Trump will cry the former.

clemenza, Sunday, 30 October 2016 21:03 (eight years ago)

This takes speculation at least one layer too deep. It requires the assumption that field agents knew about these well before they revealed that knowledge to their bosses, in order to speculate about their motives for doing so. There's no evidence they 'held onto' anything.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 30 October 2016 21:34 (eight years ago)

That's what they're reporting on CNN--that they held on to Friday's story for a few weeks.

clemenza, Sunday, 30 October 2016 21:38 (eight years ago)

Great explanation from a TPM reader / former prosecutor here: http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/must-read--36

El Tomboto, Sunday, 30 October 2016 21:41 (eight years ago)

it would be a shame if it did bump the race enough to keep the Senate red. especially given how good that outlook was. I think 50/50 is still a really good probability though.

idk tho - the email thing seems to have even died down already (like a typical Friday story). the betting markets are already back to where they were before the story broke. the race tightening probably has more to do with Trump being *quiet* lately and not picking a fistfight with someone in a wheelchair.

I don't really think Comey meant to influence the election, simply cos I can't imagine he likes Trump very much considering the nasty shit he's said about him, but he definitely went about it the wrong way. by hedging bets between "well I need to make the statement for Congress, but I also need to keep it very vague" instead of saying something that at least made it clear the scope of the focus wasn't Hillary herself nor was he 're-investigating' her.

btw, hilariously BBC News is still saying things like "we don't know whose emails they are" without making any mention of the unidentified anonymous source who gave p good insight into whose emails they were. It's kinda like - ok, I get that you might not put the same stock in an unidentified source as other publications, but since you were ok running a story before you knew what the hell it was about, it couldn't kill you to at least *mention* there's an anonymous source shedding light on it.

also fuck Anthony Weiner.

Neanderthal, Sunday, 30 October 2016 21:44 (eight years ago)

Well, not quiet. The three cable channels have been emails 24/7, but I dunno who watches them on weekend afternoons.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Sunday, 30 October 2016 21:45 (eight years ago)

A Hillary Clinton secret: lots of voters really like her

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Sunday, 30 October 2016 21:45 (eight years ago)

thanks for sharing that clemenza. kinda makes me regret defending Comey at all, even if it was due to "discussions on how to proceed". if you were ok with making a hasty statement to Congress before reading to emails, you probably coulda made the statement weeks ago that "we're looking into this and how to proceed " rather than, y'know, 10 days before an election.

xpost that's true, Alfred - I haven't been home all weekend so I've mostly just been paying attention to what people are saying.

Neanderthal, Sunday, 30 October 2016 21:49 (eight years ago)

*reading the emails

Neanderthal, Sunday, 30 October 2016 21:50 (eight years ago)

lol Chicago Tribune wrote an op-ed saying Dems should ask Hillary to step aside. Yeah, that makes perfect sense.

Neanderthal, Sunday, 30 October 2016 21:50 (eight years ago)

Hillary though I think shouldn't hammer this one too much harder, lest she keeps the story in headlines. the problem with the masses is they pay much more attention to the original headline than any corrections/clarifications, so even if Comey comes out with additional details and the networks all post a story clarifying it's not about Hillary, there will still be plenty of voters who go to the polls thinking "Hillary's being reinvestigated" or "the networks are defending Hillary, maybe there's something to what Trump is saying".

not enough to swing it, but at this point, maybe let the story die on its own. I have a feeling Comey is going to keep awkwardly trying to fan the flames in coming days since he's probably tired of being in the news.

Neanderthal, Sunday, 30 October 2016 21:53 (eight years ago)

538's been strategizing along similar lines:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-four-ways-forward-for-clinton-after-the-fbi-news/

clemenza, Sunday, 30 October 2016 22:01 (eight years ago)

Nothing anyone does in the news in the next 10 days is going to matter as much as GOTV on the day of at this point

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Sunday, 30 October 2016 22:04 (eight years ago)

unfortunately that's gonna be difficult when the TrumpTanks and the Trumpicopters are unleashed

Neanderthal, Sunday, 30 October 2016 22:05 (eight years ago)

One standard Trump line in his speeches--he just said it again a couple of minutes ago--is how this will all be the biggest waste of time and money in his whole life if he doesn't win. Can't imagine his throng is especially pleased with that line. There's a kind of awkward silence every time I hear him say it, but he continues to--trying to guilt-out-the-vote, I guess.

clemenza, Sunday, 30 October 2016 22:28 (eight years ago)

I guess he's used to getting some kind of tangible product for his money so this whole concept of spending money and maybe getting nothing for it other than more cameras in your face is new to him.

Neanderthal, Sunday, 30 October 2016 22:30 (eight years ago)

"Please allow me to carry on in the manner I've become accustomed to." LOL,what am I saying, please.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Sunday, 30 October 2016 22:43 (eight years ago)

I ran for President and I didn't even get to grab Megyn Kelly by the pussy...

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Sunday, 30 October 2016 22:45 (eight years ago)

lol Chicago Tribune wrote an op-ed saying Dems should ask Hillary to step aside. Yeah, that makes perfect sense.

It was their dipshit conservative/contrarian columnist John Kass, not an OpEd. I didn't read it, but it sounds like one of those cheeky "fine, if Trump should step down then Clinton should, too" thought-farts. He's a dork, though, and lest one forget, the paper itself endorsed Johnson, ridiculously.

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 30 October 2016 23:01 (eight years ago)

I guess he's used to getting some kind of tangible product for his money so this whole concept of spending money and maybe getting nothing for it other than more cameras in your face is new to him.

Considering his business background I'd think he was very experienced at spending his money and getting nothing back for it.

Mordy, Sunday, 30 October 2016 23:08 (eight years ago)

lol zing

Neanderthal, Sunday, 30 October 2016 23:33 (eight years ago)

and also otm

Neanderthal, Sunday, 30 October 2016 23:33 (eight years ago)

Pretty hilarious here:

https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/792874430313541632

Would not be surprised at some sort of Hail Mary rally in either NY or CA on Sunday/Monday next week.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 00:08 (eight years ago)

Deeply unfair, I suppose, but I assume any college kid who wants to work for the CIA, FBI, etc. is a crypto-fascist.

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Monday, 31 October 2016 00:43 (eight years ago)

McMullin was the policy director for the House Republican Conference.

gross.

but eh maybe he's a guy they'll fuck with in 2020 if he notches a win in UT.

acerbic (sic)s (will), Monday, 31 October 2016 01:13 (eight years ago)

I strongly suspect that in 10 days, McMullin will be about as popular with Republican voters as Ralph Nader is with Democratic ones.

wingless yurp (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 31 October 2016 01:18 (eight years ago)

Seems like Joe's musket is in the shop

https://twitter.com/walshfreedom/status/792894595663290368

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Monday, 31 October 2016 01:39 (eight years ago)

i wanted to work for the FBI when I was in college because of Twin Peaks and the X Files

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 02:21 (eight years ago)

Yeah, my old roommate wanted to go into forensics for the same reason. She ended up changing majors, though.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Monday, 31 October 2016 02:24 (eight years ago)

One of my college roommates filled out a CIA application and we came home one afternoon to an answering machine message from "Ed Sullivan of the Central Intelligence Agency" wanting to schedule an interview. (Roommate went for the interview but lost interest when he found out about the starting salaries.)

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Monday, 31 October 2016 02:46 (eight years ago)

(Sorry for digression, I've just always loved that there was a CIA recruiter named Ed Sullivan.)

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Monday, 31 October 2016 02:47 (eight years ago)

we've got a really big shoeee, tonight's guest is staging a coup in el salvador

6 god none the richer (m bison), Monday, 31 October 2016 02:51 (eight years ago)

Early Turnout Tilts Toward Democrats in Swing States.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 31 October 2016 02:55 (eight years ago)

i wanted to work for the FBI when I was in college because of Twin Peaks and the X Files

Yeah, my old roommate wanted to go into forensics for the same reason

One of my college roommates filled out a CIA application

All your old friends are fucking weak sellouts. I dropped out of college after three years of running as the quasi-nihilist joke candidate for SGA president.

Now I'm that guy.

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:17 (eight years ago)

i called the FBI once while drunk when they were looking for the Unabomber and reported my cat. That's as close as I ever got to speaking with the FBI.

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:20 (eight years ago)

That you know!

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:26 (eight years ago)

True confession: My dad worked for the CIA in an overt capacity (political analyst), and my sister and I got summer jobs there in high school/college. This was late 80s/early 90s. I worked in the mail room. I could tell you about it but of course then I'd have to track you down and kill you.

so so soviet (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 31 October 2016 03:28 (eight years ago)

we've got a really big shoeee, tonight's guest is staging a coup in el salvador

― 6 god none the richer (m bison), Sunday, October 30, 2016 10:51 PM (twenty-five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

lmao fuck

flappy bird, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:30 (eight years ago)

dude cetaphil is your friend what the hell

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:33 (eight years ago)

http://media.gettyimages.com/videos/agent-in-the-office-video-id471866092?s=640x640

Treeship, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:34 (eight years ago)

looks like things cleared up for our hero in subsequent photoshoots

Treeship, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:35 (eight years ago)

that conditioner that's good for your beard is not so good when applied north of your ears

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:35 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwEGaxPWcAANhLr.jpg

flappy bird, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:36 (eight years ago)

My wife suggested an undercut one time. I nullified that suggestion without pictures - but I love to have more ammo in the pocket

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:37 (eight years ago)

wtf flappy bird

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:39 (eight years ago)

hillary really shouldn't telegraph her muder plots so obviously. it's like trump says -- why can't we do anything secretly? general macarthur is rolling over in his grave.

Treeship, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:41 (eight years ago)

back to the important issues: i think undercuts are a flattering look for most face shapes but their ubiquity also makes them kinda basic.

Treeship, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:42 (eight years ago)

a bit of a laugh, bit of a joke

flappy bird, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:46 (eight years ago)

Elections Project summarizes the previous week:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-stability-de_b_12723188.html

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 03:55 (eight years ago)

This was late 80s/early 90s. I worked in the mail room. I could tell you about it but of course then I'd have to track you down and kill you.

― so so soviet (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 31 October 2016 03:28 (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

post post traumatic stress post

the kids are alt right (darraghmac), Monday, 31 October 2016 04:40 (eight years ago)

I could tell you about it but of course then I'd have to track you down and kill you.

The Maryland suburbs equivalent of the "Oh, you're from New Jersey - what exit" joke.

how's life, Monday, 31 October 2016 09:53 (eight years ago)

can i just say, flappybird: lol

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Monday, 31 October 2016 09:59 (eight years ago)

LOL'ing here too.

Voted early today. Felt good.

Elvis Telecom, Monday, 31 October 2016 10:15 (eight years ago)

Huh, that Harry Reid letter ...

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 31 October 2016 11:48 (eight years ago)

Morning!

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/legal-experts-fear-gop-threats-to-blcok-scotus-noms-under-clinton

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 31 October 2016 12:17 (eight years ago)

is anyone surprised? Republicans are just going to be even more disruptive than they've been these past 8 years. The only way to stop them is to break their stranglehold on Congress.

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Monday, 31 October 2016 12:36 (eight years ago)

Newsweek: Donald Trump's Companies Destroyed Emails In Defiance Of Court Orders

As always, the more Trump shouts about something, the more guilty he is of it. Every. Single. Time.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Monday, 31 October 2016 12:42 (eight years ago)

http://www.wlwt.com/article/criminal-damaging-overnight-at-warren-county-democratic-headquarters/7976049

A truckload of manure was dumped outside of the Warren County Democratic Headquarters.

Warren County Sheriff’s deputies responded Saturday morning to a call of criminal damaging at the building in the 1900 block of US 42 in Lebanon.

Bethe Goldenfield, chairperson with the Warren County Democratic Party, said that security cameras show that at 12:03 a.m., a truckload of manure was dropped at the front door of their building and that they’re working with local officials to identify who was behind it, saying "This is not going to deter or intimidate us, and will in fact motivate us even more."

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Monday, 31 October 2016 12:42 (eight years ago)

Richard Painter being hypothetical probably points out what explosive evidence about Trump Comey is sitting on: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/30/opinion/on-clinton-emails-did-the-fbi-director-abuse-his-power.html?_r=0 At least it makes sense to me. The FBI has probably in quiet investigated whether anyone from the Trump campaign had anything to do with the hackings, which even if they find nothing - which they probably didn't - would make for explosive campaign narrative.

Frederik B, Monday, 31 October 2016 12:47 (eight years ago)

something re mexico?

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/793061624882065409

"He has a great relationship with the people of Mexico, believe me."

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 13:02 (eight years ago)

xp Yeah as long as "the FBI is looking into it" is equated with "you're crooked and guilty and need to be locked up," then one could reasonably expect that ax to swing both ways. Not to say that it will.

Gah, I admit I've played this tu quoque stuff as often as anyone. But I also admit I'm very tired of it dominating the discourse to such an extent. For every iteration of "Bush deleted emails too, where's the outrage on the right?" there's a tiresome rehash of "What about Juanita Broaddrick, where's the outrage on the left?" Lather, rinse, repeat, lather, rinse, repeat...

so so soviet (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 31 October 2016 13:03 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUH4Kgmyk2Y

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 31 October 2016 13:11 (eight years ago)

Anyway, that Harry Reid letter, with Reid in dgaf mode:

http://www.reid.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Letter-to-Director-Comey-10_30_2016.pdf

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 31 October 2016 13:18 (eight years ago)

In the letter, Reid drew a contrast between how Comey has treated the Clinton email probe and how he has handled what Reid described as “explosive information about close ties and coordination between Donald Trump, his top advisors, and the Russian government.”

“The public has a right to know this information,” Reid said. “I wrote to you months ago calling for this information to be released to the public. There is no danger to American interests from releasing it. And yet, you continue to resist calls to inform the public of this critical information. By contrast, as soon as you came into possession of the slightest innuendo related to Secretary Clinton, you rushed to publicize it in the most negative light possible.”

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 31 October 2016 13:19 (eight years ago)

cnn and other outlets seem to be glossing over this bit which seems fairly major to me, like, watergate size

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 13:19 (eight years ago)

Seriously. It's less, "wah, it's not fair!" and more "dude, I know you have information on ties to Russia and are not releasing it." Even if it's nothing, I'd prefer he call Reid et al.'s bluff and show it's nothing.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 31 October 2016 13:23 (eight years ago)

It seems the new trump talking point is about Reid baiting Romney about not releasing his taxes, because he's 'a liar who said Romney didn't pay any tax, so he can't be trusted'. Seems to be getting pushed pretty hard.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Monday, 31 October 2016 13:35 (eight years ago)

Well, yeah, it was one of my first thoughts as well, 'didn't Reid somehow do the same thing to Romney?' I couldn't recall the details, though. I don't trust Reid to not at the very least overdo the connections.

Frederik B, Monday, 31 October 2016 13:44 (eight years ago)

Jon Chait is terrible at his job.
He can't be bothered to phone in an update over the weekend so he rolls in Monday morning with a bad story and a worse headline and none of the factual content is even current or accurate.

Fuck NYMag's political shop. They pay this lazy asshole, they paid Sullivan to wet himself during the debates, and Rembert Browne is a shadow of his Grantland self. Bookmark deleted!!! Take that you jerks!!!

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 13:50 (eight years ago)

Crucial quote from Republican pollster Ed Goeas (yeah, me either) in the Washington Post:

“The thing about polling is: polling assumes both campaigns are equal. You look at quality of surrogates, money raised, ground game — she has an advantage in all that. So you basically have to look at the polling and say it reflects the worst-case scenario for her.”

Journalists get so caught up in staring at the up-and-down of the numbers that they forget to remind their audience that Clinton's voter outreach operation is something like 10x the size of Trump's. That he literally only cares about retweets and rally attendance. That, more than the emails, more than the women accusing him of abuse, more than anything, is what's fucking him over, and what's gonna lose the election for him.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Monday, 31 October 2016 13:57 (eight years ago)

And following on from Van Gorp's point just now, get this:

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/793069516909580288

Welp. Trump campaign planning "talk radio blitz." Recruiting volunteers to call shows with talking points.

IOW...concentrating on the audience HE ALREADY HAS.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 14:12 (eight years ago)

As Stuart Stevens said in sharing that, "This is about as close to sending cavalry against tanks as you come across in politics."

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 14:13 (eight years ago)

Receiving validation in safe spaces is much more fun though, isn't it

Evan, Monday, 31 October 2016 14:13 (eight years ago)

But that's why we're all here oops hold on.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 14:15 (eight years ago)

Epistemic closure is a hell of a drug.

There is, as of this morning, now a lone Trump/Pence sign on my block.

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Monday, 31 October 2016 14:16 (eight years ago)

Breaking: Trump to buy all ad time during this week's episode of CBS's Blue Bloods.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 14:17 (eight years ago)

There is, as of this morning, now a lone Trump/Pence sign on my block.

Saw something similar in San Jose during a visit to my girlfriend's family. Honestly unsure whether they were doing it for Halloween or not.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 14:18 (eight years ago)

Breaking: Larry the Cable Guy to wear a Trump/Pence shirt during his upcoming stand-up show in Branson.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 14:18 (eight years ago)

You mean the guy that does a fake redneck character that resonates strongly with his fans?

Evan, Monday, 31 October 2016 14:20 (eight years ago)

they sure it's not going to be a Trump/Pence barrel

Neanderthal, Monday, 31 October 2016 14:22 (eight years ago)

In local sign news, still no Trump signs to be seen, but a neighbor down the street just planted a *Sanders* yard sign over the weekend.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 31 October 2016 14:41 (eight years ago)

I don't think I actually heard about the Bush Brothers thing, which is currently killing me.

¶ (DJP), Monday, 31 October 2016 14:50 (eight years ago)

the only signs around here are "WANT TO MAKE $12,000 A MONTH WORKING FROM HOME? CALL IGNATIUS AT 555-555-1234 FOR DETAILS ON THIS EXCITING OPPORTUNITY" or "LONELY? VISIT BEACONSTREETSINGLES.COM".

Neanderthal, Monday, 31 October 2016 15:08 (eight years ago)

3. Vaccines Cause Autism

“The child, the beautiful child, went to have the vaccine and came back and a week later got a tremendous fever. Got very, very sick. Now is autistic,” Trump said at a primary debate. “I’m in favor of vaccines. Do them over a longer period of time. Same amount, just in little sections.”

I missed this one. Trump will believe anything, huh

jmm, Monday, 31 October 2016 15:12 (eight years ago)

lots of people believe in the pseudo-middle ground of:

1) vaccines AREN'T bad, but we administer them "too often" OR
2) vaccines AREN'T bad, but you have to administer them more slowly, releasing vaccines into the blood too fast = autism

Neither of which should elicit anything but guffawing, but it's how people fool themselves into thinking they adopted the most rational thought by splitting the difference between the anti-vaxx and vaccine movement.

i think amateurist said it best - something like "well, the anti-feces eating group says eating feces is bad, but the pro-eating feces group says it's good, I guess I'll just eat *some* feces"

Neanderthal, Monday, 31 October 2016 15:14 (eight years ago)

im always bummed when i meet otherwise cool and progressive people who are anti-vaxxers

trump obv not a shock at all

marcos, Monday, 31 October 2016 15:16 (eight years ago)

yeah a longtime friend of mine posted about vaxxs, adopting one of those pseudo-middle ground positions of "well I believe in vaccines, but this expert quack doctor wrote a book about how the current recommended schedule is overkill and has proposed an alternate schedule and he uses facts rather than emotion to get his point across", go read peer reviews of the book afterward and basically the thing is skewered as bad science/etc.

Neanderthal, Monday, 31 October 2016 15:18 (eight years ago)

Being skeptical of all widely accepted things is often confused with being forward thinking or progressive by default. Also, I feel like indie documentaries and John Oliver takedowns have programmed people to feel like almost everything has a shitty underside that needs to be "exposed".

Evan, Monday, 31 October 2016 15:24 (eight years ago)

Therefore, imaginations can run wild. Just a theory though.

Evan, Monday, 31 October 2016 15:24 (eight years ago)

maybe sleep ISN'T a good thing for you....

Neanderthal, Monday, 31 October 2016 15:25 (eight years ago)

do we really need to eat? oh wait, there's already a movement for that

Neanderthal, Monday, 31 October 2016 15:26 (eight years ago)

Trump doesn't believe just anything - only the last thing someone told him.

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 31 October 2016 15:27 (eight years ago)

I gather Thiel is currently defending Trump in the worst way.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 15:55 (eight years ago)

Just to lighten the mood for a moment: Green Party Calls for National Conversation on Oppressive Comedians

Stein's full statement, viewable at http://www.jill2016.com/oliveremail, is hilarious.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Monday, 31 October 2016 15:57 (eight years ago)

I would never support a candidate who spells bologna "baloney".

how's life, Monday, 31 October 2016 16:01 (eight years ago)

But we're stronger than
a wildly inaccurate and
demeaning comedy sketch.

jmm, Monday, 31 October 2016 16:01 (eight years ago)

Stein and Johnson remind me of people I've worked with who somehow made their way into upper management on a wave of pure chutzpah and glad handing despite the fact that they're barely competent and clearly of below-average intelligence and whose involvement in anything creates nothing but headaches.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 16:10 (eight years ago)

I would love to be one of those people.

how's life, Monday, 31 October 2016 16:12 (eight years ago)

Based on that description, doesn't say much for New Mexico.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 16:17 (eight years ago)

No, that's really the opposite of what Stein and Johnson are. Most people who do that make their way by being readily controllable by the people they glad-hand; 102 IQ but loyal and willing to put in 16+ hour days for their boss or their customers.

Stein and Johnson are just people who never grew out of their twenties, and were probably already above-average at being boring and annoying in their twenties.

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 16:29 (eight years ago)

Sorry I should have said early twenties, or "undergrad years" - I really apologize, I'm old and terrible.

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 16:31 (eight years ago)

Jill Stein's campaign should avoid attempting a colloquial writing style

lettered and hapful (symsymsym), Monday, 31 October 2016 16:42 (eight years ago)

Couldn't happen to nicer people

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/31/troll-daddies-roger-stone-and-chuck-johnson-fight-over-bill-clinton-s-son.html

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 16:46 (eight years ago)

xpost Yeah, it reads like a Facebook post by someone's aunt who didn't pay any attention to politics until two months ago when they got woke by someone else's Facebook post.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 16:47 (eight years ago)

looking only at the headline and free of context I am picturing a very grotesque version of Monica and Brandy's "The Boy is Mine"

Neanderthal, Monday, 31 October 2016 16:47 (eight years ago)

Writing out lol and hmmm while complaining about nobody taking you seriously is totally self-defeating

lettered and hapful (symsymsym), Monday, 31 October 2016 16:51 (eight years ago)

nothing about this?

https://mobile.twitter.com/gabriellahope_/status/793094919275544577/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 31 October 2016 16:53 (eight years ago)

God I suck at Zing

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 16:57 (eight years ago)

So how does everyone feel like this week will play out? This election has given me lots of anxiety and it sucks to see the news cycle ebb and flow start to go negative against Clinton again. I feel like this week could get ugly overall- just hoping it's at Trump's expense. Curious.

Evan, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:00 (eight years ago)

it's going to make a lot of people angry or anxious but not move the needle significantly

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Monday, 31 October 2016 17:01 (eight years ago)

hillary had a debate question in advance. that's the definition of "rigged". wtf was brazile thinking.

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 31 October 2016 17:05 (eight years ago)

Donald Trump

will never

be POTUS.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 17:05 (eight years ago)

xxpost -- Yeah I wouldn't worry about it. Trump's flailing away randomly as always, no follow through as noted above vs HRC's campaign setup. We're rapidly moving into timekiller territory.

Relevant Elections Project tweets:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793102273949921280

NV #earlyvote update: 457K voted, 65% of 2012 levels. Dem lead steady at +7.9 points. Reps need to make move soon. Clock starting to run out

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793121790792957952

CO #earlyvote update: trick or treat for Reps:
Treat: Dem lead +3.6 points (was 3.9 on Fri)
Trick: 3,562 more Dems returned ballots
...
With over 866K voted in CO, Reps need to do more than just keep pace with Dems

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:06 (eight years ago)

Evan, do as I did, and delete the Daily Intelligencer from your list of things worth reading. Replace it with the Princeton Election Consortium, or Lawyers, Guns & Money, if you have to replace it with anything.

America is going to be fine.

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:07 (eight years ago)

65% of 2012 levels

65% of 2012 levels at the same time? is this due to voter suppression or less enthusiasm?

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:08 (eight years ago)

Tracer, I think Donna Brazile was thinking "this issue matters to me, but it's probably not on anybody's policy TPs, and I want the next POTUS to have a thoughtful answer about it." There is no proof she didn't send the exact same email to the Trump campaign.

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:10 (eight years ago)

And no proof that her bosses didn't ask her to "send this one to the campaigns so they can prep, we don't want dead air or flailing"

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:12 (eight years ago)

it wouldn't have been trump - it was a sanders/clinton debate and devine has said that she was regularly in touch with the sanders campaign too tho i don't think he was responding to this email but an earlier one where she was giving hillary questions for a CNN appearance

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:12 (eight years ago)

cf http://www.nbcnews.com/card/top-sanders-aide-defends-dnc-chair-wikileaks-controversy-n664831

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:13 (eight years ago)

also tho the debate that happened the next day was the Flint debate so it's kinda weird that she thought she needed to give Hillary a heads up that one of the questions would be about Flint. the entire context of that debate was about Flint.

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:15 (eight years ago)

Well then that's ridiculous, people ask for advance questions all the time everywhere in government. And get them. That's part of the price of regular access.

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:16 (eight years ago)

America is going to be fine

This is highly debatable regardless of the election outcome

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Monday, 31 October 2016 17:17 (eight years ago)

but like what even is the advance question she's getting here? the debate was literally about the water crisis in flint. cooper opened it up by asking them each for statements on flint. i don't see what hillary possibly could've gotten from that email - she obviously wasn't going to be surprised by a question on the topic since the entire thing was arranged to be on that topic.

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:18 (eight years ago)

Ok well back to the other point I was trying to make: prove the absence of a similar / near-identical email to the Sanders staff.

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:18 (eight years ago)

I pretty much am keeping a casual eye on only three Twitter accounts for election news at this point, beyond whatever floats into my feed:

Elections Project, obv:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/

McDonald's not interested in polls, but votes as they are cast and what those numbers likely suggest given party affiliation. Nothing against Nate Silver et al but it's now time for the nitty gritty.

Wilson for the LOLs and shitstirring, in essence. Every day means less oppo drop drama likely if it was ever; in the meantime it's a good way to see what the McMullin crew is up to.

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson

And finally Stuart Stevens, longtime GOP campaign worker/strategist, one of Romney's top guys in 2012, and yeah he lost obv but it's also kinda clear the difference between that campaign and this one. Loathes Trump et al but serves it up as engagingly mordant mockery of him and KellyAnne Conway in particular, and he pretty much comes at it all with a 'this campaign is how NOT to do things' stance.

https://twitter.com/stuartpstevens

It's not that there's not other good election accounts/news sources out there -- there are plenty of course -- but I'm tired of the signal to noise ratio at this point, and right now I'll just take a number cruncher and two 'not my GOP' types as a good barometer as to how Trump is doing, ie, badly.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:18 (eight years ago)

65% of 2012 levels at the same time?

No: 65% compared to total overall 2012 early voting.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:19 (eight years ago)

/America is going to be fine/

This is highly debatable regardless of the election outcome

As a whole. If Kansas goes bankrupt and Florida submerges, the nation can adapt, survive and overcome.

El Tomboto, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:20 (eight years ago)

America is going to be fine

This is highly debatable regardless of the election outcome

― Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Monday, October 31, 2016 12:17 PM (fifty-six seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I dunno, when viewed within the context of the entire span of recorded human history, I think 'fine' is pretty on the nose and preferable to many alternatives.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 17:21 (eight years ago)

rome didn't fall in a day - it took like centuries. feel like even if america is doomed we have a long road ahead of us.

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:21 (eight years ago)

requesting prior warning if you're going to sink us please

Neanderthal, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:22 (eight years ago)

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-idUSKBN12V03K

dollar rebounded already.

Neanderthal, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

has DB actually copped to this one? she stoutly denied the earlier one (and called megan kelly a thief)

i hate to be that guy but a week out is p much when i'd expect the assange project to be switching to faked emails -- i'd doubt assange himself was smart enough to be this subtle but this has been roger stone's meat and potatoes for decades (bcz it's about sowing discord and depressing the bernie vote)

mark s, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:25 (eight years ago)

I mean, the anxiety I feel is similar to an episode of a typical television series, where there is a conflict involving a throughly evil villain and the drama is enthralling despite being pretty sure everything will reset and turn out fine at the end. Unless it's on HBO.

Evan, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:27 (eight years ago)

thoroughly*

Evan, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:29 (eight years ago)

mark s: Yeah but almost an entire month's worth of stuff now -- some of which is apparently fake as well -- and the traction gained from it has been...minimal? Nothing's stuck in any meaningful sense from where I sit, and HRC and co are mostly just shrugging. (Which, as you say, seems to be the cue to turn things up, but I half suspect that Stone is thinking by now he's been dealt a bad hand by Assange et al.)

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:29 (eight years ago)

Yeah, this is the point in the plot where the villains start to realize that they're collaborating with other villains who are actually as venal and untrustworthy as themselves.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 17:32 (eight years ago)

this is also about a debate withs anders, it looks like, not with trump.

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:33 (eight years ago)

sure ned, but as tracer says, "isn't this the definition of rigged?"

which, yes! the fact that (as tombot says) all sides somewhat collude with some topic prep to ensure that the programme doesn't have too much dead air etc is a kind of rigged!

but once you're in the clued-up zone of *why* media works like this and how much conversation of necessity goes on off the page (which isn't contamination exactly but isn't pure-of-heart quarantine either), then you're entering the dodgy territory jay rosen calls "savvy" (and ditto, actually, a response that says "this only matters if it has an effect on the numbers)

and some people smell a stench off that and start yelling "throw the bums out" and etc -- and some of them are sort of right and a lot of bums could do with throwing out (and CNN shd be shut down and the building demolished and the earth ploughed w/salt etc)

mark s, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:41 (eight years ago)

Yeah but I have to return to a point I made a week or so back -- the electorate, IE the American public, is at the point for the most part tired, bored, irritated, burnt out and just plain over this election. I think this really explains the early voting numbers to a large degree -- they're accelerating (now at 23 million) and will beat out 2012's total of 32 million at this rate very easily. They just want the damn thing over with, and last minute fiddling/subtleties aren't going to do much. HRC knows this, ergo, concentrate on GOTV and go to town. Trump is all "SQUIRREL!"

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:44 (eight years ago)

The global market convulsion should persuade Trump's irreconcilables that things are rigged in Clinton's favor.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 31 October 2016 17:45 (eight years ago)

its not like these debate questions are a surprise or like really hard.. or that this is a civil service entrance exam where your score actually matters. this is stupid.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 31 October 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

if both sides were equally informed about topics or questions ahead of time, then I wouldn't call it "rigged" and I wouldn't care a tuppence. the point is to hear the candidates' ideas, positions, and proposals on an issue. the fact that the audience wants to see drama, stumbles and gotchas only means the general public is not much into ideas, positions and proposals, which are hard and require thought, but loves drama, which is easy and entertaining.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, 31 October 2016 17:49 (eight years ago)

From the Post:

Donald Trump's hiring of pollster Tony Fabrizio in May was viewed as a sign that the real estate mogul was finally bringing seasoned operatives into his insurgent operation.

But the Republican presidential nominee appears to have taken issue with some of the services provided by the veteran GOP strategist, who has advised candidates from 1996 GOP nominee Bob Dole to Florida Gov. Rick Scott. The Trump campaign's latest Federal Election Commission report shows that it is disputing nearly $767,000 that Fabrizio's firm says it is still owed for polling.

Trump campaign officials declined to provide details about the reason the campaign has declined to pay the sum to Fabrizio Lee, the pollster's Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based firm. “This is an administrative issue that we're resolving internally,” said senior communications adviser Jason Miller. Fabrizio did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Monday, 31 October 2016 17:50 (eight years ago)

yes, sorry, i'm kind of road-testing a post on what's right and what's wrong abt greenwald -- which i shall NOT POST TILL AFTER THE ELECTION (no comey I) -- and i was interested/bugged by how this silly brazile factoid just lit him up (cz it's evidence of my theory) (which is mine) which i shall NOT POST TILL AFTER THE ELECTION)

not my polity, will shut up now

mark s, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:50 (eight years ago)

anyone who does business with trump at this point has no right to complain about getting stiffed

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 17:51 (eight years ago)

Bit of a trifecta here

https://theintercept.com/liveblogs/trumpdown/trump-supporter-blames-anti-semitic-rant-mexicans/

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:00 (eight years ago)

You folks saying the Brazile thing is how the media works, you're not helping your cause any...

Iago Galdston, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:01 (eight years ago)

You got me. How does the media work?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 31 October 2016 18:03 (eight years ago)

fucking media, how does it work?

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:04 (eight years ago)

https://cdn.meme.am/instances/500x/72793923.jpg

GUNSHOW POOPHOLE (Phil D.), Monday, 31 October 2016 18:05 (eight years ago)

like i said above i don't even understand the Brazile thing - why would she be feeding the Hillary campaign that a question about Flint is going to come up when the entire debate took place in and was about Flint?

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:08 (eight years ago)

the vid clip at the bottom of Ned's link – something about dude bringing his kid along fucking enraged me. i'd been dealing just fine with trump's hateful little dipshits up until that point.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Monday, 31 October 2016 18:08 (eight years ago)

that makes so little sense to me i almost wonder if she was giving hillary a heads up that a woman with a rash was going to ask her a question so she wouldn't be shocked by seeing the rash or something

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:09 (eight years ago)

that's the first sensible thing i've read all day

j., Monday, 31 October 2016 18:10 (eight years ago)

i dunno, all i'm saying is it's a reaaaal easy story: "hillary got a debate question in advance" - the hows whys and wherefores are irrelevant to that headline which obviously feeds the most paranoid suppositions of trumpists, particularly when it's DB

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 31 October 2016 18:19 (eight years ago)

Which means they can call in to talk radio with that as a talking point! How wonderful, the closed circle.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:21 (eight years ago)

that makes so little sense to me i almost wonder if she was giving hillary a heads up that a woman with a rash was going to ask her a question so she wouldn't be shocked by seeing the rash or something

I thought that was what that email was about when Tracer initially posted it and was reading with escalating incredulity at the conversation happening here.

¶ (DJP), Monday, 31 October 2016 18:27 (eight years ago)

Yeah but I have to return to a point I made a week or so back -- the electorate, IE the American public, is at the point for the most part tired, bored, irritated, burnt out and just plain over this election.

― Ned Raggett, Monday, October 31, 2016 12:44 PM (forty-nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

in addition to the fact that school drop-off/pickup etc w/a kid makes election day kind of a pain, this was really the reason I voted, felt so good to cast my ballot and know i'm done

*clicks over to fret about 538 some more*

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, 31 October 2016 18:39 (eight years ago)

brazile has resigned from cnn

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:40 (eight years ago)

(a fortnight and a half ago)

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:40 (eight years ago)

bah, two and a half weeks ago.

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:41 (eight years ago)

I voted Wednesday at my regional library. Although I left work early, I didn't have to: it took 15 minutes from parking lot to emerging with my sticker. I got pleasure from the crestfallen viejo, floating amid the flotsam of Curbelo-Trump-Rubio signs, to whom I said GO HILLARY when he started to shove a flyer in my hand.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 31 October 2016 18:43 (eight years ago)

So Florida is looking to be more of a toss up now than was projected previously?

Evan, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:47 (eight years ago)

What his absurd excuse failed to account for was the fact that he was clearly recorded, by three different members of the media, explaining his chant at the time by shrugging his shoulders and saying, “We’re run by the Jews, okay?”

No, no, that's how he says 'ewes'. We're run by the ewes. Again, Mexicans.

jmm, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:49 (eight years ago)

not sure how brazile is any more of a smudge on CNN's credibility than Lewandowski.

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:49 (eight years ago)

So Florida is looking to be more of a toss up now than was projected previously?

That's why it's a battleground state!

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:49 (eight years ago)

Well sure! I guess I don't know what kind of response I was trying to generate.

Evan, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:50 (eight years ago)

Maybe more insight. It seemed like it was leaning pretty safely dem for awhile but has evened out again.

Evan, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:51 (eight years ago)

i don't think hillary ever led in florida by more than 2 or maybe 3 points - always within margin of error

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:53 (eight years ago)

Ah, OK.

Evan, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:54 (eight years ago)

if the polls turn out to be accurate, clinton will win the national vote by a larger margin than obama, but will win the swing states by a smaller margin and potentially lose some of the ones obama won in 2012 (iowa and ohio being the most likely).

intheblanks, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:58 (eight years ago)

larger national margin than 2012 obama, i mean

intheblanks, Monday, 31 October 2016 18:59 (eight years ago)

Florida can go fuck itself tbh. Trump can very easily win Florida and lose the election.

Indeed, he could win Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina (while also holding onto tenuous leads in Ohio, Arizona, and Iowa) and still lose.

See

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#stateorder

When things get iffy in Colorado, Michigan, and Pennsylvania is when I'll be worried.

so so soviet (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:01 (eight years ago)

clinton does seem to have a pretty strong firewall up to 272, there's a big jump in her numbers between nevada and colorado

intheblanks, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:04 (eight years ago)

yes and why I just put in for the day off to volunteer in Pike County PA xp

(•̪●) (carne asada), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:06 (eight years ago)

if i'm just going to be stressed the fuck out might as well be busy trying to do something

(•̪●) (carne asada), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:06 (eight years ago)

Trump can very easily win Florida and lose the election.

I'm harder to satisfy. The more resoundingly Trump is defeated, the better. A massive Trump defeat would make his main positions radioactive for a long time, while a close defeat would bring the alt-right white nationalists much further into the mainstream. I say, crush him and stomp on whatever's left.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:11 (eight years ago)

i'm scheduled to drive ppl to the polls in PA too xxp we'll see if they end up needing me

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:11 (eight years ago)

This'll likely be the first time since, what, Taft in 1908, that the GOP will win Ohio but lose the election.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:15 (eight years ago)

cubs tie-in

mookieproof, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:16 (eight years ago)

i realize there have been some demo shifts just since 2012, but it still amazes me that Trump will carry any state that Romney lost.

acerbic (sic)s (will), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:20 (eight years ago)

Aimless, I definitely agree in spirit. So I will amend: it's okay with me if Florida is still uncertain and contemplating recounts and courtroom challenges and shit on Nov. 9 - presumably because Clinton shouldn't/won't need Florida to proclaim victory. Unless things go seriously pear-shaped, Florida is NOT deciding the election this time. (No, I haven't forgotten 2000, not in the least.)

That said, yes, Trump and his racist Trumpian politics need to be stomped and stomped thoroughly; they need to be shown to be both unpopular and actively toxic. Of course I remain hopeful that demographic headwinds will make the white nationalist Trumpian appeal a non-starter in 4 and 8 years, but like Aimless I want to salt that field and curse it into barrenness.

so so soviet (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

I'm here to remind y'all about 2000.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:32 (eight years ago)

Was that a thing

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:33 (eight years ago)

Don't worry. Trump will lose decisively, and his disgusting platform will demonstrably shown to be past its sell-by date, and the GOP will wake up when they see the election results and begin the discussion of what they need to do differently in order to appeal to a broader base of Americans, and then Hillary can start preparing to run against 2020 GOP presidential candidate Grand Wizard Smith.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:35 (eight years ago)

basically I expect David Duke to get the 2020 Republican nomination and Evan McMullan to get pilloried by the right over the next four years

¶ (DJP), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:38 (eight years ago)

I also half-expect a sane conservative party to coalesce around Bill Weld

¶ (DJP), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:38 (eight years ago)

@samsteinhp
CNBC report: FBI concluded Russia is trying to undermine election but thought it was too close to election to say so

mookieproof, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:39 (eight years ago)

xxxp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QD9RYVWpwrk

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:39 (eight years ago)

xpost -- rather circular.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:41 (eight years ago)

i dunno, all i'm saying is it's a reaaaal easy story: "hillary got a debate question in advance" - the hows whys and wherefores are irrelevant to that headline which obviously feeds the most paranoid suppositions of trumpists, particularly when it's DB

― illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, October 31, 2016 6:19 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

hillary probably also 'prepared' for the debate like a dumb dummy would do

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:42 (eight years ago)

i would really like some of that toxic trump oppo research to drop about now

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:43 (eight years ago)

like when I interview people for jobs at my company, I usually hope they come in expecting me to ask "tell me about a time where you had to solve a problem and what steps you took" and actually prepped for that question

Neanderthal, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:44 (eight years ago)

Prepare for lots of parentheticals about walls and Benghazi and China in future non-answers to that question.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:49 (eight years ago)

Luntz said on twitter two days ago there was a particularly damaging release coming this week. Maybe he's just parroting Wilson.

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

(damaging to trump)

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

Luntz said on twitter two days ago there was a particularly damaging release coming this week.

Yeah, it's called Election Day.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:52 (eight years ago)

Or the subsequent simultaneous release that'll do some damage to GOP drawers across the country.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

They'll be soiling their drawers, for sure.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 31 October 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

these fucking scumbags

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/william-johnson-anti-mcmullin-pro-trump-robocall-utah

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, 31 October 2016 19:56 (eight years ago)

who responds to this shit

¶ (DJP), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:02 (eight years ago)

Who responds to this? Shit. You answered your own question.

Their all losers and I like associating with loser (Dan Peterson), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:05 (eight years ago)

I'm sure there'd be no way to decisively prove it but it would be hilarious if reaction to that robocall ultimately proved to be the thing that won UT for McMullin.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:13 (eight years ago)

Baffler bit seems worth reading:

This is the crux of the problem. When faced with people like Trump supporters, whose views we may see as stupid, intolerant, and recklessly backward, it’s become perfectly acceptable to rebuke those views simply by shouting “this is 2016!” We see our fellows and their different lifeworlds (dangerously unenlightened as they may be), not as unavoidable elements of a history that is still unfolding, but as irritating roadblocks in the way of a history whose coming is already a foregone conclusion. Buoyed by the grace of “progress,” we posit our liberal values as the open, forward-looking counterweight to conservative retrenchment, which stubbornly clings to outdated traditions and the dismal norms that complement them. But, in fact, our approach is the mirror image of conservatism. Like nostalgic right-wingers who resist the onslaught of a changing cultural sphere by upholding the righteousness of tradition, liberals line the barricades erected around a future whose righteousness speaks for itself

http://thebaffler.com/blog/2016-liberal-odyssey-alvarez

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:18 (eight years ago)

i really don't need another essay talking about how it's condescending to call racism racism

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:26 (eight years ago)

^^^

¶ (DJP), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:28 (eight years ago)

That isn't really what that essay does.

Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:30 (eight years ago)

It is a little better than that, but it also unironically uses the phrase "social justice warriors", so fuck that.

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 31 October 2016 20:30 (eight years ago)

wow at that robocall, it sounds like GOB's campaign video for george michael bluth.

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:30 (eight years ago)

the premise of that quote seems to be that liberals think racism, homophobia, anti-Semitism and the like are bad because they are outdated and have no place in the glorious liberal future, not because they're morally indefensible in the present.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:30 (eight years ago)

It's largely about how you should feel about those things on the understanding that they will never have any actual impact on your life.

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 31 October 2016 20:32 (eight years ago)

I probably excerpted the wrong bit, but article more about the problems of an uncritical march towards Clintonian neoliberalism, starting from an examination of "This is 2016!" as an immediate response to hearing of Trumpian idiocy

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:35 (eight years ago)

No kidding. "This is 2016!" is a deeply stupid response to any political position and therefore ridiculously easy to opine against.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:38 (eight years ago)

Liberal smugness is a posture that permits us to simply take our own righteousness for granted—to the point that we don’t even see the need to defend our positions. Rather than confront the darker sides of our own beliefs, or face head-on the counterclaims on history that other political actors are making, we remain cocooned in our social echo chambers filled with people who already agree with us.

I feel like I read things literally every day that actually defend liberal positions with some detail, especially refuting the many flat-out made up and wrong things that Trump is peddling but the right has no interest and would prefer their weird imaginary world where moderate Democrat Barack Obama is a Muslim Socialist firebrand, so I guess what should we do to explain shit to literal idiot racists?

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:39 (eight years ago)

In 2016, liberal values enjoy a relatively dominant place in popular culture—from the Modern Family melting pot to the Hillary Clinton campaign’s multicultural basket of deployables. The world reflected back to us through various media is one that has generally accepted the familiar values of equality, tolerance, respect for difference, a very low-grade critique of corporate greed, etc. The culture wars are over, and we on the leftish side of things have reportedly “won”. . . which is probably why the rise of Trump was so shocking for many.
But Trumpism, among many other deviations from the scripted finale to history, didn’t come from nowhere, and it won’t just go away. One of the direst products of the 2016 election has been the stubborn refusal of liberals and progressives to reevaluate our unspoken presumption that the cultural ubiquity of our “shared liberal values” meant that there was no longer any need to defend or redefine those values. Trumpism should alert liberals that there is, and always will be, infinitely more work to do. Instead, it has only assured liberals of their infinite righteousness in comparison, confirming their conviction that something must be fundamentally outdated “in the hearts” of this “other side” whose followers have chosen to stand on the “wrong side of history.”

Nothing here is wrong as such, but it def. views the whole thing as entirely theoretical - or rather assumes that its audience will.

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 31 October 2016 20:39 (eight years ago)

like how much time should we spend reflecting on the deeply held beliefs of the "farmer white nationalists" making robocalls calling mcmullin gay in utah?

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, 31 October 2016 20:40 (eight years ago)

how is this not the "ppl feel repressed by (((Hollywood))) PC culture" argument

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 20:56 (eight years ago)

Wow I just read a profile of Glenn Beck in Rolling Stone and he has a private jet (?????)

flappy bird, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:09 (eight years ago)

Voting for Clinton : Coltrane's A Love Supreme :: Neoliberalism : Abrahamic monotheism

Got it, thanks, stop writing essays telling me how blind and stupid I am for hating Trump and his "people"

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:17 (eight years ago)

Of course Glenn Beck has a private jet - that's the thing you do when you're fucking crazy and people give you money for no reason

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:22 (eight years ago)

This Month's Criterion newsletter clue...

http://i8.cmail19.com/ei/r/89/720/35B/042514/images/wacky-10-16.jpg

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:23 (eight years ago)

The entire idea that liberals are just covering their ears and shouting "THIS IS 2016" is such a horseshit strawman.

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:23 (eight years ago)

I'm still confused about something. I get how Trump supporters and Hillary haters (and even some Hillary supporters) would find Clinton untrustworthy, but the ones that think she's a liar - what exactly do they say she's lying about? (Besides "everything.") I heard someone interviewed on the BBC today who conceded she is well-spoken and Presidential and even smart, but is just such a liar he can't support her and would rather gamble on Trump, because hey, you never know!

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:25 (eight years ago)

common line is she lied about the emails

frogbs, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:25 (eight years ago)

Lied about what, having the emails or sending classified stuff? Is that it? Even if nothing has been found yet?

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:27 (eight years ago)

she's just a liar, that's what women do, don't you even know

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:28 (eight years ago)

I mean that line is what they're resorting to because they can't call her a communist or Kenyan or Muslim or whatever. It's just code for bitch.

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:29 (eight years ago)

she said nothing classified was ever on the server, when in fact there was

at least that's what I'm gathering

this whole thing is like Deflategate to me. I wish I could care about it but I really, really don't

frogbs, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:30 (eight years ago)

"Listen, I think free college is a great idea, I agree that women's control over their own body is a right that needs to be protected, I support labor's right to collectively negotiate with corporate management, I support stricter controls on the purchase and ownership of firearms - but she's a LYIN' BITCH, like ALL OF 'EM, ESPECIALLY DORIS, YEAH DORIS, YOU HEARD ME" doesn't come off as well as just saying "...the email thing, so many other things, she's just not trustworthy."

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:35 (eight years ago)

the other 'lie' is that she refused to help ambassador stevens and those in beghazi, and then lied about that refusal, and then lied to the public and said it was caused by youtube, and lied to the families. none of which shakes out to being very true

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:37 (eight years ago)

Even at his height at Fox I never would've thought he could afford a private jet....and somehow he STILL has one?

flappy bird, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:42 (eight years ago)

A lot of "I just don't trust her" I hear is from Bernie supporters switching to Stein,who then scramble around rationalizing this point

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:42 (eight years ago)

the thing that links it all together is that there's a secret email on Anthony Weiner's computer where Hillary says that the Benghazi staff can all go die. If the FBI finds it, they're doing God's work. If they don't, they are socialist democratic agents.

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:42 (eight years ago)

i kind of wish there were one more debate so that trump could confront her about getting the debate question in advance and she could just turn to him slightly and say "yeah, i'm smart"

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:45 (eight years ago)

hahaha

¶ (DJP), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:46 (eight years ago)

it actually says: "Fuck Christopher Stevens. He keeps trying to tell me that we're fighting a war against Radical Islam but I told him that we're fighting a war against good conservative values and America which is always wrong about everything. I hope he is killed by someone angered by an American-made video but even if he isn't I will claim he is because that will help my attempts to destroy America. Also I bombed Libya because a Clinton Foundation donor bribed me to."

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:47 (eight years ago)

the thing about the avalanche of pieces like that baffler one is, yeah, okay, urban liberals can be self-righteous, but c'mon, that's something that's true of literally everyone. I don't on any level buy that it's a serious driver of the Trump candidacy.

intheblanks, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:51 (eight years ago)

"And I'm a woman who wants to be presidetn"

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:52 (eight years ago)

And something pieces like that don't acknowledge is that maybe there are limits to the coalition you can build in 2016, that even if you think that the white working class should be solid Dems, that maybe it's not possible right now. And maybe it's not the fault of neoliberalism or elite condescension, but our country's gigantic and powerful history of white supremacy that should be confronted head-on

intheblanks, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:53 (eight years ago)

Bernie supporters who have switched to Stein are just people who hate the existence of "foreign policy" as a concept imo - Democrats' dabbling in the practice thereof is a bridge too far, too far, somewhere children are dying and it's all because of it

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:54 (eight years ago)

Or actually policy in general. You don't need to know anything about how things work to fix them. You just need to know that something is WRONG.

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 21:54 (eight years ago)

Well now those sound like Trump voters.

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:56 (eight years ago)

the take on 'clinton lying" i just read on an fb friend's post asking his conservative friend to explain their hatred: she lied about the email server which she set up privately to hide quid-pro-quo transactions arranged with foreign parties who gave money to the clinton foundation in exchange for apache helicopters and some other insane bullshit

akm, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:57 (eight years ago)

I thought GOP was all gung-ho for clandestine weapons deals

Οὖτις, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:59 (eight years ago)

Shhh!

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 31 October 2016 21:59 (eight years ago)

Liberal smugness is a posture that permits us to simply take our own righteousness for granted—to the point that we don’t even see the need to defend our positions. Rather than confront the darker sides of our own beliefs, or face head-on the counterclaims on history that other political actors are making, we remain cocooned in our social echo chambers filled with people who already agree with us.

So we have to engaging with the "ya know, Hitler had some good ideas" people?

nickn, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:02 (eight years ago)

article more about the problems of an uncritical march towards Clintonian neoliberalism, starting from an examination of "This is 2016!" as an immediate response to hearing of Trumpian idiocy

― (rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Monday, October 31, 2016 3:35 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Who is this strawman, and can you help direct my foot toward his nads

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Monday, 31 October 2016 22:04 (eight years ago)

xp the other thing about that passage is that it could be applied to the holders of literally any political or philosophical viewpoint.

intheblanks, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:05 (eight years ago)

On the one hand, Hillary has given the impression that each further revelation in both the Benghazi and Email sagas has been dragged from her clutching grasp, when she could just have provided everything at the start and avoided all of this unpleasantness.

On the other hand that is not in her nature - not because she's a cartoon villain, but because she's an actual grown up who considers getting on with her job the most important thing - and who has devoted more time than anyone else over the last 25 years to contemplating the bullshit nature of bullshit investigations.

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:05 (eight years ago)

xp does the author think that the tea partiers were engaged in a serious and ongoing Socratic dissection of their beliefs?

intheblanks, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:05 (eight years ago)

http://www.theonion.com/article/report-stating-current-year-still-leading-argument-35288

nickn, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:07 (eight years ago)

Well now those sound like Trump voters.

Yup, funny how that works.

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 22:08 (eight years ago)

baffler piece a great example of the fact that liberalism's reflexive self-criticism is both one of its strengths and perhaps its main weakness.

ryan, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:13 (eight years ago)

Tombot, have you seen this? Seems right up your alley. http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/10/was_a_server_registered_to_the_trump_organization_communicating_with_russia.html

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Monday, 31 October 2016 22:19 (eight years ago)

It’s possible to impute political motives to the computer scientists, some of whom have criticized Trump on social media. But many of the scientists who talked to me for this story are Republicans. And almost all have strong incentives for steering clear of controversy. Some work at public institutions, where they are vulnerable to political pressure. Others work for firms that rely on government contracts—a relationship that tends to squash positions that could be misinterpreted as outspoken.

oh fart my balls

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 22:22 (eight years ago)

What the scientists amassed wasn’t isn’t a smoking gun. It’s a suggestive body of evidence that doesn’t absolutely preclude alternative explanations.

It sure wasn't isn't not a thing! It could, however, be the absence of nothing.

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 22:23 (eight years ago)

Elections Project on Iowa and Maine:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793212932117127168

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793216200977293312

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:25 (eight years ago)

Thank you for sharing that, Phil, but I hated it with explosive, poison fire out of my eyeballs and mouth

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 31 October 2016 22:25 (eight years ago)

xp so i keep seeing this a lot - early voting is skewing democratic but below dem 2012 numbers? so -- okay, good to be in the lead, but not amazing?

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:31 (eight years ago)

More seems like it varies, and what's clear is that the overall amount of early voting will easily outstrip the 2012 numbers shortly. (32 million was the number there; I am presuming we'll hit 24 million tonight based on current pace.)

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:34 (eight years ago)

McDonald at EP isn't saying that everything's a Democratic slam dunk by any means, but he's noting some consistent strength in key states in general. (As always with the caveat that it's projection rather than absolute knowledge.)

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:36 (eight years ago)

in states where we're on pace to beat 2012 numbers is it primarily attributable to democratic voters or evenly distributed or what?

Mordy, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:36 (eight years ago)

I think the real explanation to the email situtation is basically 'Im trying to get what I want the easiest way possible and I dont give a fuck about how its done. I rely on my subordinates to get this right.' but thats not the best explanation for a pol. also assumes your underlings will challenge you and tell you what you want is wrong, but you cant really go and tell a cabinet member what to do now can you?

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 31 October 2016 22:38 (eight years ago)

xpost -- As to that you'd probably have to dive into either the breakdowns he's creating or sharing. That Maine chart, for instance, pretty clearly shows a dominant surge in Democratic voters versus GOP or unaffiliated.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:38 (eight years ago)

He's also saying that the NC numbers may change further as more spots start opening this week for early voting.

Ned Raggett, Monday, 31 October 2016 22:39 (eight years ago)

Jonathan Capehart ‏@CapehartJ 1h1 hour ago
Is Trump a Putin agent? “There’s absolutely no question,” said Evan McMullin.

Wilson pushing the Mother Jones secret server story hard, is this (finally) one of the oppo dumps?

by the light of the burning Citroën, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 00:10 (eight years ago)

Capehart is often a hack tbh

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 00:11 (eight years ago)

Wilson retweeted, so McMullin is on board with that no equivocation response.

by the light of the burning Citroën, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 00:13 (eight years ago)

(sorry, second part was me in that post, my bad)

by the light of the burning Citroën, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 00:14 (eight years ago)

idk what to think about that slate story but i do actually believe there is some kind of information pipeline from moscow to the trump campaign, like someone is passing them info from wikileak hacks ahead of their public release and such. trump himself has v little filter at his long rambling rally speeches so i don't think he is directly aware of the straight line but more like some people on his team (he hires the best people obvs) are feeding him this stuff and then he just goes and says it & then brags about "i called it!" and "i predicted everything!"

i bet team trump has at least one guy who trump thinks is a super genius because he gives trump all these great ideas for attack lines, kisses trumps ass and lets trump take the credit for "calling it" and in reality the guy is getting the info.. through some method that is v shady prob illegal and should be/is being investigated

trump camp vulnerable to any/all speculation because 1) he won't release his tax returns disclosing foreign business ties 2) despite flipping on many, many, many issues he thinks putin is great and won't back down on this even when handed many opportunities to walk it back through leading questions by friendly interviewers!

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 00:18 (eight years ago)

mcmullin is a former intel officer isn't he?

i'm skeptical of wilson's promises of seriously damaging oppo dumps. that said if there is something it feels like we're only looking at preliminary hints at it right now. like if there's really a bombshell it's gotta be something that even trump apologists like joe scarborough look at & say wow that's bad

it occurred to me a few weeks ago, while reading rick wilson's twitter feed and wondering whatever became of The Thing (some campaign-destroying bombshell wilson kept alluding to during GOP primaries).. that if it existed, it was probably about trump.. and that maybe the russians had something on trump which was keeping him in line - keeping him insisting that it would be great to get along with putin etc. it seemed too tinfoil hat to post at the time

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 00:36 (eight years ago)

Huh. HRC went for it.

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/793250312119263233

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 00:40 (eight years ago)

i think we should stop paying attention to rick wilson

mookieproof, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 00:43 (eight years ago)

Separately, early voting now at 24.6 million, presume we'll see 25 million or even higher tomorrow morning.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 00:43 (eight years ago)

We’ve written about this before, but I wanted to call your attention to it again because the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split keeps widening in our forecast. While there’s an outside chance that such a split could benefit Clinton if she wins the exact set of states that form her “firewall”, it’s far more likely to benefit Donald Trump, according to our forecast. Thus, as of early Monday evening, our polls-only model gave Hillary Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning the popular vote, but just a 75 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. There’s roughly a 10 percent chance of Trump winning the White House while losing the popular vote, in other words.

enough nate this is embarrassing

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 00:53 (eight years ago)

I suspect we're in the phase where everyone's suddenly realizing nobody will be looking at their site/news show/etc. after a week's time so they better harvest the clicks/get the ratings while they can.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 00:55 (eight years ago)

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/veteran-spy-gave-fbi-info-alleging-russian-operation-cultivate-donald-trump

what would T.R.U.M.P. and P.U.T.I.N. be short for in a bond movie

j., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 01:01 (eight years ago)

the issue for me with nate's site & analysis is that his forecast is really a forecast of whether the public polling will align with the election results. does a campaign with more money, better polling, tens of thousands more volunteers and paid staff, highly efficient and well organized GOTV operation to turn out voters including new voters and infrequent voters.. have 10% less chance of winning the election from last week, based on a model that only uses data from public polling?

i guess i wonder whether nate has ever stepped back and asked himself how to square his 'forecast' with that of david plouffe who has never wavered all year from saying the structure of the election has not changed and trump has no path to victory

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 01:06 (eight years ago)

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/report-trump-dodged-paying-tens-of-millions-in-taxes-1788427675

"According to a report from the New York Times, Donald Trump avoided paying “tens of millions of dollars” in taxes after he failed to declare hundreds of millions of dollars in income, thus exploiting a IRS loophole so legally murky that his own advisers told him that the IRS would probably penalize him if he were audited. Essentially, Trump had huge debts cancelled, then never disclosed it to the IRS, who consider forgiven debts as taxable income."

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 01:16 (eight years ago)

i'm ok with hillary _and_ deflategate, asking for choice is some dipshit stuff on halloween

wait srsly this post was interrupted by actual Colorado Dem Party rep crashing doorbell and adorable trickrtreaters to ensure my Dem ID and that me and my registered spouse had voted. i told him I did and NOT COOL.

wishy washy hippy variety hour (Hunt3r), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 01:18 (eight years ago)

T.R.U.M.P.: The Russophile Union of Malicious Pricks

P.U.T.I.N.: Pricks United To Infiltrate NATO

so so soviet (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 01:28 (eight years ago)

it would be so weird -- even weirder that what we've seen so far -- if trump turned out to be an actual, demonstrable russian asset. i mean, it's vanishingly unlikely, but wouldn't that be incredible?

i've been canvassing for the democratic party around these parts. the congressional district as a whole is pink (that is, it goes republican but not by a large margin) but the city itself is pretty blue. i haven't encountered any hostility so far. today i talked with two puerto rican guys about my age who were out on their stoop having a smoke. one guy talked to me for a while, and was very earnest in his admiration for hillary, which surprised me. the other guy didn't say anything for the first few minutes of the conversation, then at one point when there was a lull, he added, "i'm voting for trump" and took a puff on his cigarette. i suspect he was trolling me; in the moment it was pretty funny.

anyway, hi guys.

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 01:38 (eight years ago)

I suspect we're in the phase where everyone's suddenly realizing nobody will be looking at their site/news show/etc. after a week's time so they better harvest the clicks/get the ratings while they can.

― Ned Raggett, Monday, October 31, 2016 7:55 PM (thirty minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Gonna be a long weekend.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 01:44 (eight years ago)

Techno-Racist Undergroud Massive Program

Protectorate of United Tribes, Industries and Narwhals

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:22 (eight years ago)

Underground

Thanks for nothing, autocorrect

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:22 (eight years ago)

And even the hacking into Democratic emails, F.B.I. and intelligence officials now believe, was aimed at disrupting the presidential election rather than electing Mr. Trump.

puhhhhh-lease

Treeship, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:26 (eight years ago)

is that how you spell a sarcastic please?

in any case, i don't think trump is a russian agent, but i think it's pretty clear who putin wants to win this election. i remain baffled by trump's pro putin statements.

Treeship, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:30 (eight years ago)

you gotta throw an Oh in there.

oh puh-leeeease

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:35 (eight years ago)

ah. yeah, that's more like it.

you also did a good job extending the ees rather than the uhs as i did out of foolishness

Treeship, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:37 (eight years ago)

There's a strong case to be made for state-sponsored interference that has no aim of influencing the actual vote results, but just to deteriorate confidence in the US election system. Switching to bad guy voice:

Last week we fucked with your media. Next week we'll fuck with your vote reporting. Week after that, we fuck with your - healthcare systems? power grid? part of your vaunted "nuclear triad?" Just imagine, 007. It's no longer your concern, because I just dropped your instagram password on pastebin - Ah hm hm hmm! Ah hee hee hee! Kill him.

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:40 (eight years ago)

Can I still make vines? I want to make a vine out of the last post, 2nd half.

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:41 (eight years ago)

you should still have the security clearance to make vines

Treeship, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:42 (eight years ago)

it's literally just for phones. Fuck that. Jesus

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:43 (eight years ago)

Oh jesus fucking god I thought I had GarageBand on this laptop and now it's giving me the huge dick download to install FUCK YOU RUSSIA YOU DID THIS

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:45 (eight years ago)

THE RUSSIANS WON ALREADY GUYS BECAUSE CLEARLY THEY ARE THE REASON APPLE COMPUTERS ARE WORSE THAN THEY WERE IN 199 FUCKING 8

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:46 (eight years ago)

this election is so terrible that we all deserve to listen to this song on repeat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHylQRVN2Qs

though she denies it to the press, (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:46 (eight years ago)

we all deserve to listen to this song on repeat

NNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:49 (eight years ago)

you want better tunes you gotta do better than this

if we work hard maybe we can graduate to this timeless masterpiece

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ck3UbyyfEGA

though she denies it to the press, (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:50 (eight years ago)

the russians don't love their children. mystery solved. thanks sting

akm, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:57 (eight years ago)

It would have been such an ignorant thing to have done

his eye is on despair-o (Jon not Jon), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 02:58 (eight years ago)

a growin' feelin' of hees-teh-ri-ahh

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:00 (eight years ago)

going back upthread, I can't imagine why Nate's polls only model reacted so severely, other than he must give way too much stock to Remington polls or forget that tracking polls aren't the same thing as regular polls. dude is a joke.

also I just saw several Marco Rubio ads and I wanted to destroy a television, man he can't even do THOSE well....

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:00 (eight years ago)

wait, "dude is a joke" is way too harsh. I liked the guy way too much in 2012 and he still is v astute. I'm just disappointed in the change in direction.

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:01 (eight years ago)

I realize this isn't on topic, but GarageBand for OS X is a shit tool for shit people made of shit who want to shove their own shit up their shit nozzles until all of their organs are replaced by shit, folded upon shit, with shit in the middle.

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:05 (eight years ago)

^there's an info dump I can get behind

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:07 (eight years ago)

538 has become the place to discuss all the many things that have a >0% chance of happening as if they really are going to happen

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:07 (eight years ago)

xps garageband and logic won't recognize my usb mixer, but audacity does so i know it's not my computer/the mixer. anybody else have this problem? thanks

flappy bird, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:11 (eight years ago)

does one of those nonzero things include me being able to make a simple voice recording on my macintosh laptop in the year TWENTY GODDAMN SIXTEEN

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:11 (eight years ago)

538 this cycle reminds me of that episode of Boy Meets World when Mr Feeny asked the class a riddle about one guy who normally took 10 minutes to wash a car and another guy took 6 minutes, how many minutes would it take them both to watch it, and Mr Mencus did some crazy formula to find the answer and Mr Feeny told him he was wrong and he flipped out and spent hours doing crazy assed motherfuckin' formulas, losing his shit over it......

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:12 (eight years ago)

*to wash it

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:14 (eight years ago)

So what was the result? Make them wash a car together and record the whole 16 minute escapade?

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:16 (eight years ago)

iirc Mr Feeny strangled Mencus to death

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:17 (eight years ago)

This election is about progress you guys

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:37 (eight years ago)

Is this the fitting end we deserve

https://twitter.com/AndreaChalupa/status/793263468447236096

frogbs, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:42 (eight years ago)

This is how the world ends
Not with a bang
But a gang bang

hardcore dilettante, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:43 (eight years ago)

Is there a way to recompile Audacity so it handles better USB drivers on Windows? I hate recording directly to PC because of the lag when trying to listen to headphones.

I do have FL Studio, but not the flavor that'll do live audio.

Also, I bought candy tonight for the first time in years and we only had two groups of tricker treaters all night. I put candles out and played the Lost Boys soundtrack and everything.*

*man, you really do forget how quickly that album goes to shit after the second song. I had to switch to _Press Eject & Give me the Tape**_ next.

**possible thread title? Press Elect & Check Out (Me)Sex Tape?

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:49 (eight years ago)

can't tell if wrong thread or not

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 03:52 (eight years ago)

Keep an eye on this:

http://electionlawblog.org/?p=88394

Also Elections Project confirms we're over 25 million votes. I'm guessing we hit 30 by Wednesday.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 04:22 (eight years ago)

In fact I suggest looking over this whole Twitter thread re the case I linked just above:

https://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/793307820489789440

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 04:35 (eight years ago)

xxxxp Tomboto open QuickTime Player, File menu, New Audio Recording.

MatthewK, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 04:51 (eight years ago)

have we shared this amazingness? http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/31/trump-promised-to-make-christie-vp-then-changed-his-mind

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 05:00 (eight years ago)

retweeted by noted putin fearmonger anne applebaum:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/399729261684490240

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 05:04 (eight years ago)

"it would be so weird -- even weirder that what we've seen so far -- if trump turned out to be an actual, demonstrable russian asset. i mean, it's vanishingly unlikely, but wouldn't that be incredible?"

this is what i was alluding to like, 5 threds ago where I was like, "suppose trump wins by 90% bc dictators never half-ass anything."

would there be a total recount w/ paper or a coup?

ein Sexmonster (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 05:04 (eight years ago)

i don't know why it would be so unlikely. like on its face obv alleging secret russian conspiracy is nagl under any circumstance but if anyone has deserved it considering all the evidence linking trump to putin it would be here and now. maintain skepticism but ffs there's are like a dozen neon signs pointing to this that we've been seeing throughout the campaign.

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 05:07 (eight years ago)

afaict there's not a lot of hard evidence and conspiracy theories are best left to trump's camp

k3vin k., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 05:19 (eight years ago)

There'a a decent run down on why the Russian Batphone Server is nonsense here: https://mobile.twitter.com/randomvariable/status/793250224315756544

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 07:39 (eight years ago)

Great job putting the bank owned by two of the former Soviet Union's most prominent Jewish-Ukrainians (Mikhail Fridman and German Khan) at the heart of a fictitious global conspiracy to manipulate the election in Russia's favour, though.

Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 08:49 (eight years ago)

I think for Putin, the prize here is not a Trump presidency, so much as capturing the allegiance of Trump's base, and through that, the republican party. A president Trump would only throw a spanner in the works here.

more like dork enlightenment lol (Bananaman Begins), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 09:00 (eight years ago)

xxp: Getting old, so I had to work the math muscle:

To minimize the car washing time, each will finish washing their fraction of the car simultaneously.
If x is the fraction of the car washed by 6 minute guy,
6 x = 10 (1 - x)
x = 5/8 = 0.625
How fast could 6 minute guy wash 0.625 of a car? 6 x 0.625 = 3.75 minutes, which seems like a reasonable answer.

publicity hungry, opportunistic, disgruntled former employee (Sanpaku), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 09:38 (eight years ago)

xp There's a reasonable argument that Russia's main objective at the moment is stability (both in oil prices and in the $, which most off-the-books money is kept in) and that they'd rather not have the unpredictability of a Trump presidency. There would be positives and negatives either way.

idk how this alleged campaign would capture the Republican base, though. Republicans are still more hostile to Russia than Democrats according to most surveys iirc and, other than cooperation in Syria, the vague suggestion that sanctions could be reviewed and a few tweets about how Putin is smart! and strategic!, there hasn't been that much from the Trump campaign to persuade supporters to change their view. The theory pretty much hinges on the idea that there are secret deals behind the scenes in Russia's favour, rather than the kind of overtly pro-Russian boosterism you occasionally see in European parties sympathetic to Putin. If the pro/anti ratio has changed at all i'd expect it to be mostly as a result of alienating more Democrats than winning over more Republicans.

I think if there has been any mischief it would probably be aimed more at landing the next president, irrespective of who it is, with such a compromised base of support that foreign adventurism is unlikely, but idk.

Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 09:41 (eight years ago)

Maybe Putin just likes seeing fellow fascistic assholes succeeding.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 09:48 (eight years ago)

He likes other countries weakened economically and militarily, with the weakeners reasonably loyal to him.

Three Word Username, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 10:04 (eight years ago)

He likes destabilization that he might be able to exploit. Even the threat of destabilization is sufficient. One might say he desires the SPECTRE of KAOS.

so so soviet (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 10:39 (eight years ago)

He likes the idea of someone making America great again.

Bein' Sean Bean (LocalGarda), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 10:42 (eight years ago)

Hey, the Cold War was great for guys like him. Can't blame him for feeling a twinge of nostalgia.

so so soviet (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 10:43 (eight years ago)

How many cars can 6 minute guy wash in an hour? 10. How many cars can 10 minute guy wash in an hour? 6. So how many cars can both of them combined wash in an hour? 6+10=16. Ok, so how long does it take for them to wash one car? 60/16=3,75 minutes.

Frederik B, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 10:48 (eight years ago)

one thing the politics threads have been missing is people solving maths puzzles and showing their working, so i for one am thrilled at this recent development

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 11:02 (eight years ago)

Just a pity Morbz isn't here to disagree with their solutions.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 11:03 (eight years ago)

'thrillary' / dennis perrin tweet / unwarranted attack on another poster / promise to leave politics thread forever

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 11:06 (eight years ago)

Perrin still on top form, even now he's denied our audience

Dennis Perrin ‏@DennisThePerrin 6m6 minutes ago
On the eve of Trump's electoral defeat, there are Hillary fans shouting STOP JILL STEIN. Have liberals lost their minds?

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 11:11 (eight years ago)

this for me is prime Perrin: cynical, 'daring', not even remotely funny, and referencing a cultural figure who was a reference on classic SNL. I liked his Michael O Donoghue bio when I was younger, but I tried to reread it recently and it is a try-hard slog.

Dennis Perrin ‏@DennisThePerrin Oct 26
That Pat Sajak hasn't committed suicide is a testament to human endurance.

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 11:13 (eight years ago)

lol who the hell is shouting STOP JILL STEIN

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 11:14 (eight years ago)

although i concede it was me who brought up dennis perrin i'd like to make an impassioned plea that we try to keep this a safe, perrin-free space for as long as morbs' ban remains in place

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 11:19 (eight years ago)

noted

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 11:31 (eight years ago)

In a lot of ways all the Trump/Russia stuff in this election seems to have gone weirdly unexplored, especially given the sheer number of ties and/or coincidences. FBI on Manafort now.

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 11:37 (eight years ago)

Kasich has travelled back to 2008 and cast his ballot for McCain as POTUS. Brave man. Brave man.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 12:32 (eight years ago)

wooo Trump back up to 27.5% on 538

frogbs, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 13:20 (eight years ago)

but on the other hand

Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 98%, Bayesian 99%

frogbs, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 13:22 (eight years ago)

nate silver speculating on all these ridiculous & extremely unlikely scenarios reminds me of tim russert in 2000 with his fucking dry erase board

marcos, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 13:34 (eight years ago)

We have to take seriously the possibility that there could be a series of earthquakes across the country next Tuesday whose shimmying and shaking will cause voters to accidentally cast votes for Trump, in which case he stands a very good chance of winning the election.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 13:40 (eight years ago)

It reminds me of Nate Silver in 2012, in the same dead-time period when he has to fill space.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 13:40 (eight years ago)

Nate's thing all along is that he thinks/knows there are 3x as many undecideds at this point as there were in 2012. So he's not hard-limiting his forecast in the way Sam Wang, Huff Post, etc. If those undecideds (supposedly 13-15% of the electorate) break heavily for Trump, it becomes a much closer race. Other models seem to be discounting this. If you're undecided in late October, are you even going to vote at all?

So he's crunching the same numbers as everyone else, but his model doesn't seem to be on as tight a leash. Add to that the clickbait articles and it makes the whole enterprise seem a bit wackier than it used to.

xxp

Michael Jones, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 13:47 (eight years ago)

I mean I can't turn on the TV without some "NEW POLL SHOWS CLINTON AND TRUMP IN DEAD HEAT!!!" headline so who knows maybe he's on to something

frogbs, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 13:52 (eight years ago)

Newt Gingrich
‏@newtgingrich

Washington Post-ABC poll is an absurdity. Trump has not moved up 13 points in the last 8 days.he was NEVER 12 points behind. Ignore polls

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 13:52 (eight years ago)

I want to believe he and his team are incompetent, but I have to start by saying, you know, this is this guy's job. We're just a bunch of dopes on ilx. There's no way I have enough authority on the science to doubt any of his methods.

xp

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 13:53 (eight years ago)

as usual the Dem bedwetters on my FB wall are worse than Joe Scarborough in obnoxiousness

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 13:53 (eight years ago)

The 538 model has build in much more uncertainty. They're also saying there's a larger chance of a Clinton landslide than the rest of them. Predictions aren't an exact science.

Frederik B, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:02 (eight years ago)

He's also been pretty upfront about the fact that it's not his remit to judge the effect of EG vastly different GOTV operations.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:06 (eight years ago)

I'm okay with dems wetting their beds if the dampness ultimately drives them out of bed and to the polls so they can keep the sky from falling. Because it's almost definitely going to fall, guys.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:15 (eight years ago)

I'm looking at 2018 election stakes and reading old interviews with Barney Frank to cheer myself up today

mh 😏, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:16 (eight years ago)

mmmmmm . . . election steaks . . .

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:21 (eight years ago)

@hughhewitt
My #firstvote was for Gerald Ford--a good, honorable man. Thinking @DrJillStein is best option for young Ds

sure, sure

mookieproof, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:21 (eight years ago)

so silver has built a model that deliberately declines to model who's going to show up at the polls, and gives trump a 25% chance of victory ("as much as the chicago cubs!", he likes to say at any given opportunity, as though the two were remotely comparable) based on it? seems legit.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:23 (eight years ago)

a good statistician will tell you anything's possible, anything

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:26 (eight years ago)

I'd rather vote for Gerald Ford than for Jill Stein.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:29 (eight years ago)

I'd rather vote for a Model T Ford than Jill Stein.

¶ (DJP), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:30 (eight years ago)

It is shocking that he has not factored in the readily-available and widely-accepted results of this imbalance in GOTV.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:31 (eight years ago)

It must be very embarrassing for doctors that only the dumbest among their ranks chose to represent them in this year's presidential race.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:31 (eight years ago)

Pizza Magnates welcome the obscurity this year though.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:34 (eight years ago)

the smart doctors find the job beneath them

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:34 (eight years ago)

So I was just pondering: has there been a non-incumbent presidential candidate whose election ever seemed like as much a foregone conclusion as Clinton's so far ahead of the election? There have been plenty of twists and turns along the way, but, for better or worse, I would've predicted well over a year ago that she'd be the next president and it sure looks like that's gonna pan out.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:35 (eight years ago)

They 'model' who goes to the poll by having pollsters poll 'likely' voters. You can't 'model' gotv efforts, the same way you can't campaign ads, campaign signs, rally sizes. It's not really data-driven, apart from how much money is spend on it, but there really isn't such a big correlation between money and wins as people think.

The thing is to keep in mind, that data-driven journalism is only part of the story. Clinton was always going to win this, because she's so much better at each and everything asked of a politician, down to not assaulting women. But that's not something data tells you, when polls tighten for a moment, until the debates show how superior Clinton is.

Frederik B, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:36 (eight years ago)

Some early vote thoughts -- at 25 million that's 20% of the overall vote total from 2012, though of course expectation is that we'll see a larger turnout this year (think I've heard 140, so 20% would be 28 million). Yet something that's interesting to my mind is whether or not we will or if we'll see something in line with the expected growth of the electorate vs the population. I have to wonder sometimes if we're just seeing people functioning on the 'done and over with' side of things as driving higher early vote totals, but hey.

McDonald at Elections Project has flagged this number among the North Carolina unaffiliated early voters as something to consider, noting that there's been a huge increase in such voters. If you rolled in 'other' with the African American vote as distinct from the white vote, it evens out but of course it's all ultimately a question of who votes what:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793456618516000768

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:36 (eight years ago)

(Adding again that EV total in 2012 was 32 million, which I strongly think will be reached by Friday if not Thursday.)

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:37 (eight years ago)

Yeah we'll be grand after the next debate.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:38 (eight years ago)

Trump has not moved up 13 points in the last 8 days.he was NEVER 12 points behind.

Newt is right about this, though. People went wild with delight about "CLINTON IS 12 POINTS AHEAD, IT'S A BLOWOUT" but that was an outlier poll. People are freaking out now about the same numbers they were joyous about a week after the first debate.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:40 (eight years ago)

So I was just pondering: has there been a non-incumbent presidential candidate whose election ever seemed like as much a foregone conclusion as Clinton's so far ahead of the election? There have been plenty of twists and turns along the way, but, for better or worse, I would've predicted well over a year ago that she'd be the next president and it sure looks like that's gonna pan out.

― I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch)

i think george h.w. bush was in a pretty good position in '88, wasn't he?

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:40 (eight years ago)

Notable, though, that I doubt anyone ever seriously thought Biden was more likely than Clinton to be the next dem nominee.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:42 (eight years ago)

My problem is that it's in everyone's interests to claim the race is close. The candidates don't want to risk depressing their votes, and the media prefers a close race. I've been wrong twice recently, I don't want to be wrong again (not because I care about being wrong, but the results I been wrong about - Tories getting a majority and brexit - are terrible)

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:44 (eight years ago)

Think Dukakis was ahead following the '88 conventions, before Willie Horton and all that

“a tub of horses” (Myonga Vön Bontee), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:47 (eight years ago)

i think george h.w. bush was in a pretty good position in '88, wasn't he?

― xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy),

He was only behind after the Dem convention, so, yes, Bush I was always going to win. Clinton in '96 too.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:48 (eight years ago)

Clinton-Dole '96 might've been the dullest prez election of my lifetime.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:49 (eight years ago)

I guess Scott Walker's team thought he was being clever?

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/793450901092438017

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:49 (eight years ago)

did result in some peak Norm McDonald though

frogbs, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:52 (eight years ago)

My new go-to curse is 'may you vote in exciting elections'.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 14:53 (eight years ago)

the debates show how superior Clinton is

she was so good she even knew what questions would be ahead of time

AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 15:28 (eight years ago)

She knew there would be math on the math test, and then someone sent her an email saying psst, you may want to study up on math.

Is there no end to her evil?

so so soviet (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 15:30 (eight years ago)

"someone is going to ask you about flint at the flint debate" "whew i'll make sure to prepare something for that then"

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 15:31 (eight years ago)

so silver has built a model that deliberately declines to model who's going to show up at the polls, and gives trump a 25% chance of victory ("as much as the chicago cubs!", he likes to say at any given opportunity, as though the two were remotely comparable) based on it? seems legit.

His Russian roulette analogy is also horrible.

Allen (etaeoe), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 15:32 (eight years ago)

Question about that Elections Project tweet (https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793456618516000768):

Why are white voters broken out by gender but black voters not? Do black voters typically vote in gender lockstep, in a way that white voters don't?

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 15:34 (eight years ago)

all of his analogies seem pretty bad? since the risk is predominately systemic polling failure you'd think that he'd analyze what kind of polling failure is more likely but it seems like he just assumes that the polls could be off X amount in either direction. but the failures that are possible are things like poor cell phone polling and poor spanish-speaking polling which skew to one side. i understand that kind of thing might be hard to quantify but it seems to me like there's a difference between a gun that for sure has 1 bullet in one of its chambers and a gun that you think is empty but you might be wrong about.

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 15:34 (eight years ago)

I must say that Michael McDonald AND Joe Walsh have gotten pretty odd since their 1970s heydays.

so so soviet (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 15:38 (eight years ago)

That's not the risk - the main risk is that the number of undecided voters is several multiples of the margin between the candidates.

I thought he wrote about it recently, but that can't be right, as he's a blithe idiot.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 15:44 (eight years ago)

he says right in that link

If we calibrated the model based on presidential elections since 2000 only — which have featured largely accurate polling — Clinton’s chances would rise to 95 percent, and Trump’s would fall to 5 percent.

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 15:52 (eight years ago)

I think Silver also builds in more correlation between states than Wang does, and that makes a big difference. On Wang's view, errors about the different states are likely to cancel each other out: on Silver's view, if we're wrong by 3% in a bunch of swing states, those errors are very likely to all be in the same direction, which would be enough to change the outcome.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 15:53 (eight years ago)

His Russian roulette analogy is also horrible.

― Allen (etaeoe)

now he's moved on to a cubs analogy, which is even worse. the cubs could start hitting, you know.

anyway, considering his "25% chance" would require, what, every poll in somewhere like pennsylvania or wisconsin or virginia to be wrong, i'm starting to seriously wonder what advantages his model has over gyromancy as a predictive mechanism.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:01 (eight years ago)

Yeah the Cubs are actually making decisions and doing specific things, instead of other things, to win or lose a game. They're professionals, working in their field, at a very high level. So are their opponents, of course, but the baseball teams' degree of control over their situation is not analogous to that of the presidential candidates.

It MIGHT be more analogous to how much control a baseball team has over its ballpark attendance figures. Do they have some? Yes, but ultimately it's up to a lot of individual decisions.

Poll aggregators are only ever as good as the data they get and what they do with it. So they're completely at the mercy of the polling organizations and what they choose to do. The act of forecasting is like a cloud of moths circling around a single lamppost, and that lamppost is a single question: Are Polls Predictive?

Lots of subquestions under that one, but basically Nate is exploring whether polls mean anything at all, and we won't know until later, o everything he says between now and then is (2) temporizing with speculations of unlikely events, and (2) covering bases in case the prediction goes disastrously wrong.

I hope the Russians carve their pumpkins too (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:13 (eight years ago)

Gyromancy's that thing in Silent Hill, right?

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:13 (eight years ago)

um, I think I meant "so everything he says between now and then is (1) temporizing with speculations of unlikely events, and (2) covering bases in case the prediction goes disastrously wrong."

I hope the Russians carve their pumpkins too (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:14 (eight years ago)

We won't know later either, unless they run the elections 100 times just for the stats.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:20 (eight years ago)

stats and giggles

Mark G, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:23 (eight years ago)

asking whether polls can be trusted, from nate's position, is about _this_ close from going full "creation science". it's your job, dude. if you don't think they're trustworthy, change careers, don't take your insecurities out on the internet.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:24 (eight years ago)

i'd say there's about a 25% chance what we call "reality" is nothing more than an elaborate computer simulation, and we are all but dreams of an unfeeling cosmos, figments of machine imagination.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:26 (eight years ago)

i'd say there's about a 25% chance what we call "reality" is nothing more than an elaborate computer simulation, and we are all but dreams of an unfeeling cosmos, figments of machine imagination.

― xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, November 1, 2016 12:26 PM (four seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

This depends on Florida, right?

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:28 (eight years ago)

Florida is an elaborate computer simulation created by an unfeeling cosmos, yes.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:31 (eight years ago)

anyway, considering his "25% chance" would require, what, every poll in somewhere like pennsylvania or wisconsin or virginia to be wrong, i'm starting to seriously wonder what advantages his model has over gyromancy as a predictive mechanism.

What? No, it wouldn't require any of that - it'd take (in decreasing order of 538's likeliness) Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado to go Trump. Colorado's the only one of those that they have as 76% Clinton (where the others are in the 50 range) - the last few polls there are:

Clinton up by 03%, 12% undecided, 07% Johnson
Clinton up by 03%, 07% undecided, 04% Johnson
Clinton up by 04%, 07% undecided, 11% Johnson
Clinton up by 07%, 08% undecided, 10% Johnson
Clinton up by 03%, 11% undecided, 06% Johnson
Clinton up by 02%, 13% undecided, 12% Johnson
Clinton up by 05%, 08% undecided, 06% Johnson
Clinton up by 00%, 04% undecided, 13% Johnson
Clinton up by 02%, 07% undecided, 05% Johnson
Clinton up by 09%, 06% undecided, 07% Johnson

I've added Johnson because people who say they'll vote third-party tend not to back that up, but this is a crazy year so who knows. If they do switch, I'd be amazed if they went Clinton rather than Trump (but this is a crazy year etc). These are also the two most unpopular candidates in polling history.

So, the polls don't have to be wrong, because the polls are only saying "Clinton right now has a lead" rather than "Clinton has this sewn up".

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:42 (eight years ago)

Okay, then how about this - the polls were generally accurate during the GOP primaries, were they not? In fact, wasn't that why Silver got it wrong where Wang got it right - because Nate wasn't listening to what the polls were telling him? That alone reassures me that there isn't some cache of "hidden Trump voters" that he can bank on. I do think there are certain things the polls can't predict but as far as I can see nearly all those things are going to favor Clinton.

frogbs, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:48 (eight years ago)

Florida might be a computer simulation but it's not an elaborate one.

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:49 (eight years ago)

vicecity.jpg

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:53 (eight years ago)

Also replace cosmos with chaos and you're on to something

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:53 (eight years ago)

Can't wait to see what Nate's forecast says on 11/9

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:54 (eight years ago)

Btw as atonement for Friday CNN BBC and all other majors should be forced to run stories that solely say "BREAKING NEWS: Trump Russia taxes"

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 16:55 (eight years ago)

asking whether polls can be trusted, from nate's position, is about _this_ close from going full "creation science". it's your job, dude. if you don't think they're trustworthy, change careers, don't take your insecurities out on the internet.

― xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, November 1, 2016 12:24 PM (thirty-two minutes ago)

lol what

k3vin k., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:00 (eight years ago)

Silver has clearly decided this is how he wants 538 to be - insecure, speculative, wobbly. No one is forcing us to look; just alt-tab over and take hold of Wang if you want reassuring stability.

I hope the Russians carve their pumpkins too (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:09 (eight years ago)

take hold of Wang if you want reassuring stability.

stop stealing my pick up lines

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:10 (eight years ago)

Grab 'em by the Wang!

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:15 (eight years ago)

I think if Nate Silver had the option of including other relevant factors - ground game, funding, records for late deciders, etc. - he would go for that, and we'd have a much more stable and reliable polls plus chart. Instead, though, he's decided these things are unmeasurable (as they didn't play the same role in previous elections, so he thinks he has no data to work with) and has just named it "greater uncertainty" - which seems like he's just avoiding the issue and refusing to engage with things which are very important. But it's understandable, he started making non-data-based predictions about Trump in the primaries and was proved completely wrong, so now he's over-correcting. I just wish he would get over it, his site is making these weeks even more stressful for a lot of people.

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:20 (eight years ago)

what always galls me is when silver explains away things by saying stuff like 'our model is very sensitive to uncertainty'

no shit so is everything else

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:34 (eight years ago)

It certainly stresses me out, but I'm easily triggered by anything that teases apocalyptic scenarios

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:35 (eight years ago)

Silver is done. Guy was so high on himself after correctly predicting two very easy/boring elections in a row. Watching him lose his mind has been one of the most enjoyable sideshows of this year. Everyone called him a wizard and he believed it.

flappy bird, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:41 (eight years ago)

He's losing his mind?

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:45 (eight years ago)

Everyone called him a wizard and he believed it.

― flappy bird, Tuesday, November 1, 2016 1:41 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I think I saw a line graph on his forehead

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

He was never much of a wizard. He just was a reliable aggregator in a highly partisan atmosphere where Rasmussen polls were spreading a fog of misinformation and people needed someone who would sort through the crap and tell them the straight dope.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

If by straight dope you mean telling people 'polls are ultimately meaningless', he's doing a pretty good job of communicating that message.

I'm not a dummy. I'm not. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:49 (eight years ago)

interesting, where did he say that

k3vin k., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:53 (eight years ago)

It's not Silver's job to diminish your stress. Seems clear from the poll fluctuations that this race -is- still very volatile. Early voting results show mixed messages re voter turnout, both candidates are the least liked in recent presidential history, "major stories" are hammering the candidates every few days. (I put "major stories" in quotation marks bc I agree most of the anti-Clinton stuff is bullshit small potatoes.) If Dem voters decline to turn out, or if there's a polling error, or if -another- major story or news event hits on Nov 7, there could clearly be a swing of a few percentage points. In many states, this would turn the election. So it seems perfectly fuckin reasonable and correct to put Trump's chances in the order of 20%, not at 2%.

sean gramophone, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:53 (eight years ago)

Still can't believe Trump has not released his taxes, would answer (or raise) so many questions. Is it truly possible he could be elected without *anyone* knowing of his countless conflicts of interest or illegal activity?

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:56 (eight years ago)

interesting, where did he say that

― k3vin k., Tuesday, November 1, 2016 12:53 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I said 'communicated'. Mostly unintentionally, via much wild flailing.

My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:57 (eight years ago)

guys there was only ever a 62% chance he was a wizard max.

i'm trying not to get personal about it. he has a methodology. he's not just making shit up. i'm just tired of people i know losing their shit over the methodologically overstated uncertainty in his polling aggregate, and that panic feeding into the belief that the race is up for grabs (winning the war after losing every battle only happens in bob dylan songs).

there's something, to me, fundamentally silly about assigning a concrete likelihood to unanticipated events, about trying to predict the unpredictable. or maybe hubristic. i don't know. in any event i don't think it's a sound basis for prognostication.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 17:59 (eight years ago)

It's not really that complex, what's the big difference between 538 now and 538 in 2012?

538 is owned by ESPN & is under more pressure to produce "content."

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:02 (eight years ago)

His world shifted out from under him this time around. He got co-opted into a more entertainment and profit-oriented framework where he needed to tap dance around more to earn his bigger salary. Consequently there are better, calmer, less co-opted aggregators out there now. It's no big deal. He's just nothing special now and we'll all move on.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:03 (eight years ago)

aimless otm

marcos, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:15 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/793458760064700416

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:17 (eight years ago)

hopefully when hillary is president, passing a statistics course will become mandatory for college graduation

k3vin k., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:18 (eight years ago)

ugh c'mon,there must be something more than seeing a portrait we all already knew existed

unless he's naked in it raping a baby or something

akm, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:19 (eight years ago)

XP

it was at my college!

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:20 (eight years ago)

Yeah, it's not exactly big news but it'll at least make the whole thing that much sillier to have the visual accompaniment.

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:21 (eight years ago)

I heard someone loudly proclaiming that Obama planned to pardon Hillary the day after the election so that Republicans in the House couldn't investigate or even oppose her.

Yeah, pardoning the President-elect is going to LIMIT Republican opposition. That makes sense.

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:21 (eight years ago)

Stats was required even for us fine arts majors at my college.

Kiarostami bag (milo z), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:22 (eight years ago)

pardons aren't preemptive oh god why do i bother

goole, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:25 (eight years ago)

Always glad to listen to 'someone' who is privy to Obama's unannounced intentions. Like rounding up all his opponents with black helicopters and putting them into FEMA concentration camps. Or outlawing guns.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:25 (eight years ago)

never shoulda let all these Trump voters out of those FEMA camps

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:33 (eight years ago)

I want every ballot cast for Trump to send the voter into the Phantom Zone, where Trump himself will be sent to rule after the election. And then we can sorta peek in on everybody in four years and see how things are going as they're wandering around in despair with nothing but gaping sockets where their eyes once were.

My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:38 (eight years ago)

the shit trump believers state is happening has no grounding in reality. I had one just tell me on FB that Bill Clinton is standing trial on January 7th in Arkansas for raping a 9 year old girl. what????

akm, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:41 (eight years ago)

i think trump is actually the only one with a court date relating to assaulting an underaged person

global tetrahedron, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:45 (eight years ago)

that is true. people just jumble shit together in their fucked up brains

akm, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:45 (eight years ago)

I was too nervous to read this carefully

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/11/trump-clinton-take-different-paths-to-270-electoral-votes.html

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:50 (eight years ago)

http://www.thepussyproject.com/

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:53 (eight years ago)

or was that already linked upthread? This moves fast.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:53 (eight years ago)

xxpost Quell your nerves! The headline at first seems scare-mongery until you read it more closely and realize that it actually says Trump will be three electoral votes shy of victory (i.e. there is no way for him to win) no matter how well things go for him.

My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:54 (eight years ago)

I've basically considered this election over for about a week now (helps that I already voted I suppose)

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:58 (eight years ago)

I considered it over two days after the Access Hollywood tape hit big. btw, I've already voted, too.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 18:59 (eight years ago)

My anxiety is more based on how dangerous Trump is vs. how realistic his chances actually are, so thanks for putting up with my varying degrees of somewhat irrational nervousness.

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:00 (eight years ago)

i really am relying on you all for some calm perspective cuz i'm freaking the fuck out about this thing.sad!

(•̪●) (carne asada), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:02 (eight years ago)

Fair enough - I will sit on my hands for a bit.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:02 (eight years ago)

goole, wasn't Ford's pardon of Nixon in a sense a preemptive one - immunity from prosecution for any crimes he MAY have committed?

I hope the Russians carve their pumpkins too (Ye Mad Puffin), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:04 (eight years ago)

I've basically considered this election over for about a week now

― Οὖτις, Tuesday, November 1, 2016 2:58 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yup

im just tired of it now

marcos, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:05 (eight years ago)

here's something for your anxiety: this feeling of doom that people are hoping is dispelled in one week is not going away. the feeling of relief people are expecting to feel when this awful election is done is not going to come.

i think the entire clinton presidency is going to be like the past couple weeks: inexplicably stupid decisions made by dullard loyalists in the face of an opposition party even more implacably insane and shamelessly cynical than it was in the 90s or under obama.

goole, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:05 (eight years ago)

But other than that!

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:05 (eight years ago)

yep

flappy bird, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:07 (eight years ago)

yeah we'll cross that bridge when we get to it just don't put agent orange in the fucking white house you piece of shit country

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:08 (eight years ago)

YMP: i don't know the legal ins and outs tbh.

if we're entertaining the idea at all, what would even be the point? post-iraq, the status of being in office is enough to render you innocent of anything you did while in it, a pardon just makes the whole thing unseemly. they're holding on to a fantasy that obama knows HRC is guilty of something and will demonstrate it publicly for some reason.

goole, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:10 (eight years ago)

Yeah, Clinton's presidency is probably going to be a sad farce in the face of continued GOP intransigence but at least we don't have to worry about nukes being launched. Trumpists will continue to exist after the election but I remain convinced that they won't have another figurehead who gets as far as Trump has. That's a special recipe of repulsive qualities that cannot be easily duplicated.

My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:10 (eight years ago)

Google otm, although we'll at least know who the president is and the general shape of Congress for the next couple years.

But, yeah, it's going to be a massive shitstorm regardless.

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:10 (eight years ago)

*goole

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:10 (eight years ago)

goole, wasn't Ford's pardon of Nixon in a sense a preemptive one - immunity from prosecution for any crimes he MAY have committed?

― I hope the Russians carve their pumpkins too (Ye Mad Puffin),

Ford justified his pardon by using an early 20th century SCOTUS decision stipulating that a person who accepts a pardon admits to his guilt.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:10 (eight years ago)

multi-xps

Congress can investigate anyone for any reason, pardon or no pardon. The House can vote articles of impeachment against a sitting president, just because they decide that certain actions meet the criteria of "high crimes and misdemeanors", whatever those actions happen to be. The Senate can convict on equally shaky grounds, simply because the other branches of government cannot limit these whims. The only Constitutional safeguard against these abuses are elections.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:11 (eight years ago)

The first ordeal of Clinton's presidency is gonna be the Court, and we'll spend the rest of the new talking about it.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:11 (eight years ago)

I want every ballot cast for Trump to send the voter into the Phantom Zone, where Trump himself will be sent to rule after the election. And then we can sorta peek in on everybody in four years and see how things are going as they're wandering around in despair with nothing but gaping sockets where their eyes once were.

― My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch)

would definitely like to see trump kneel before zod

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:13 (eight years ago)

that would be a "pretty picture"

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:13 (eight years ago)

can someone photoshop Hillary and Trump on this gif

http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/scale_super/14/144096/3501196-5652539749-superman2ending222.gif~original

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:15 (eight years ago)

can we take a moment to appreciate this guy? i have to admit by the end of the video i'm almost liking the dude. pretty sure that's a bud light he's drinking in the interview also

http://www.nbcnews.com/video/trump-supporter-denies-yelling-anti-semitic-chant-at-rally-797957699810

global tetrahedron, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

can someone photoshop Hillary and Trump on this gif

i got ya.

http://i.imgur.com/OLEoUhO.gif

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:29 (eight years ago)

i added holes to donald trump's body at no additional charge.

Mad Piratical (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:31 (eight years ago)

My anxiety is more based on how dangerous Trump is vs. how realistic his chances actually are, so thanks for putting up with my varying degrees of somewhat irrational nervousness.

indeed - I disliked Romney a ton but never lost any sleep over the idea of him winning. I know this is mostly forgotten amongst a million other things but the fact that he still seems to believe the Central Park Five should be put to death is one of the scariest things I can imagine in a potential POTUS.

frogbs, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:35 (eight years ago)

Google otm, although we'll at least know who the president is and the general shape of Congress for the next couple years.

woah goole is google? ok yr picking up the tab next time

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:39 (eight years ago)

How does one go about verifying this as legit or not? Or does it mean nothing anyway

https://twitter.com/MrJamesonNeat/status/792832307639889920

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:39 (eight years ago)

Also I wish this was effective in swaying people in some kind of ideal universe I'd like to travel to

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/EconomistLetter11012016.pdf

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:41 (eight years ago)

How does one go about verifying this as legit or not?

Well, it appears to be an affidavit filed in a federal court case, so it is sworn testimony. Presumably it is only part of a pattern of evidence to be put before the court, rather than the entirety of the case. What it means in terms of outcome remains to be seen.

This case isn't being reported widely enough to have a big impact on the election, but Trump will still lose the election, so it doesn't matter in that context.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:48 (eight years ago)

How does one go about verifying this as legit or not? Or does it mean nothing anyway

https://twitter.com/MrJamesonNeat/status/792832307639889920

― Evan, Wednesday, November 2, 2016 3:39 AM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Well, it's a sworn affidavit, so it should at least be in the news FFS. Why are all the supposedly liberal media spending so much time on these stupid fucking emails and no time at all on this?

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

xp!

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

Clearly, Hillary Clinton should have spent the last several decades fostering a reputation for filing frivolous lawsuits.

My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 19:51 (eight years ago)

Voter intimidation appears to be reaching intensely stupid levels now

http://thetimesnws.com/hillary-indicted-fbi-criminal-conspiracy.html

Evan, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 20:20 (eight years ago)

"I'm not telling people not to vote for her. I just think people need to be aware of the fact that they may be committing a crime by doing so, and that they may face consequences for it," he added.

uh, ever heard of the secret ballot?

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 20:25 (eight years ago)

oh brooklyn

https://twitter.com/DebbersGar/status/792841758526824448

goole, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 20:27 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMqhoYjY2X0

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 20:27 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvObb9CWEAAZOMM.jpg:small

goole, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 20:58 (eight years ago)

oh brooklyn

oh that's cute as heck

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 21:01 (eight years ago)

Voter intimidation appears to be reaching intensely stupid levels now

http://thetimesnws.com/hillary-indicted-fbi-criminal-conspiracy.html

Just to be clear: the voter intimidation here isn't that Robert George thinks voters could be committing a crime by voting for Clinton. Robert George is not an idiot and doesn't think that. Rather, the voter intimidation is that somebody put up a fake news story at "thetimesnws.com", which is meant to look like an actual story from http://www.thetimesnews.com/, an actual newspaper in North Carolina. The idea, presumably, is scaring people into thinking that a professor at Princeton Law School (Princeton doesn't have a law school) thinks you might be prosecuted for voting for Clinton. People are so fucking awful.

Guayaquil (eephus!), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 21:10 (eight years ago)

betting odds for Clinton plummeted today to 71% - 29%, however this is following much the same trajectory that "phlegmgazi" did. there's a lot of reason to think that it's similar statistical noise to the 14-15 point Clinton lead polls.

p much, I think anybody wanting to go to bed with the confidence of 2008 Obama-McCain based solely on the polls are going to be greatly disappointed. yet she may still win by that margin or more.

fortunately for us the winner is being decided in a best of 999 series.

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 21:12 (eight years ago)

Cohn at NYT actually stated precisely that, yesterday:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/upshot/get-ready-for-another-swing-in-the-polls-but-not-necessarily-a-shift-in-the-race.html?_r=0

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 21:19 (eight years ago)

did we talk about how dumb Jill Stein is today?

http://www.patheos.com/blogs/progressivesecularhumanist/2016/10/jill-stein-wants-national-conversation-on-oppressive-comedians/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=FBCP-ATH&utm_content=progressivesecularhumanist

"We need to begin having honest conversations about the oppressive tactics corporate comedians continue to do towards already-marginalized groups of people.
This country was built on oppressing The Other (Blacks and indigenous people) and I’m not going to stand for more of this while we deal with major crises in this country that could determine whether we’ll even survive as a species."

on what grounds is very rich, very white Jill Stein the Other?

akm, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 21:31 (eight years ago)

for men, the mother is the original other

j., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 21:35 (eight years ago)

beware corporate comedians, y'all

¶ (DJP), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 21:52 (eight years ago)

betting odds for Clinton plummeted today to 71% - 29%, however this is following much the same trajectory that "phlegmgazi" did. there's a lot of reason to think that it's similar statistical noise to the 14-15 point Clinton lead polls.

p much, I think anybody wanting to go to bed with the confidence of 2008 Obama-McCain based solely on the polls are going to be greatly disappointed. yet she may still win by that margin or more.

fortunately for us the winner is being decided in a best of 999 series.

― Neanderthal, Tuesday, November 1, 2016 5:12 PM (forty-eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

gee man i don't know, the pundit that most tells me what i want to hear assures me that clinton is 99% or more to win

k3vin k., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:03 (eight years ago)

?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=FBCP-ATH&utm_content=progressivesecularhumanist

sad, hombres (sic), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:07 (eight years ago)

beware corporate comedians, y'all

― ¶ (DJP), Tuesday, November 1, 2016

which is why we all listen to Dennis Perrin

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:15 (eight years ago)

if trump can employ his tax magic on the nuclear waste that was his atlantic city holdings maybe he can make the national debt disappear too!!!!!!!!!!

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:15 (eight years ago)

wait…DJP…Dennis Perrin??

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:27 (eight years ago)

Wilson's feeling his oats again:

Also...

What happened on the night of Friday, November 3rd, 2000?

--

The key point of asking that question is to point out that it's Tuesday, yo.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:27 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/793576242163441665

good stuff

k3vin k., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:28 (eight years ago)

xp Who Moved My Cheese? by Spencer Johnson was one of the best selling books.

j., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:30 (eight years ago)

On November 3rd 2000, it was leaked that George Bush had a DUI on his record...

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:41 (eight years ago)

Went to early voting today in Cleveland. I don't know how this is determined and am way too lazy to look it up, but the ballot order was:

Clinton
Richard Duncan
Johnson
Stein
Trump
Write-in

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:41 (eight years ago)

You're going to kick yourself when you work it out.

Michael Jones, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:42 (eight years ago)

Order of hottest to least hot.

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:44 (eight years ago)

Ballot order is almost always determined by a random draw.

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:46 (eight years ago)

If you want to think big:

https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/status/793534995365187585

who even are those other cats (Eazy), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:47 (eight years ago)

Not ready to sign on to that accusation yet, but Comey is spinning out of control right now for sure.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:51 (eight years ago)

no one tell her about chemtrails

k3vin k., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:51 (eight years ago)

she's not saying it either, judging by the rest of her tweets on the subject

mark s, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 22:56 (eight years ago)

Comey suxx

Hilary ruelz

Neanderthal, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:01 (eight years ago)

WTF, NPR is reporting that both Obamas, both Bidens, Josh Earnest, and like 30 big time Dem senators and house members all scrubbed their Twitter feeds of any tweets mentioning HRC this morning (and all unfollowed her)...

Iago Galdston, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:04 (eight years ago)

*arched eyebrow*

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:06 (eight years ago)

... considers the source

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:06 (eight years ago)

Meanwhile:

https://www.facebook.com/drjillstein/posts/1342946029078917

Posted by the campaign's social media chair

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:07 (eight years ago)

I dunno, look for yourself, the tweets aren't there (Zach Haller on Twitter was the first to notice, I think)...NPR has been pretty friendly to HRC, why would they report it?

Iago Galdston, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:08 (eight years ago)

link it

aaaaaaaauuuuuuuuu (melting robot) (WilliamC), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:09 (eight years ago)

http://www.snopes.com/michelle-obama-scrubs-twitter/

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:10 (eight years ago)

can't link something that's been scrubbed. fair play iago

imago, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:10 (eight years ago)

Snopes LOL--yes, Matt Yglesias was unavailable to render his verdict so Snopes is on the case...OK, good luck all, buckle up

Iago Galdston, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:14 (eight years ago)

you got any evidence bud or you just gonna keep making yourself look like an idiot

k3vin k., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:15 (eight years ago)

Iago
Imago
Let's call the whole thing off

“a tub of horses” (Myonga Vön Bontee), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:17 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/789096632537055232

maybe he means a different hillary clinton

k3vin k., Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:17 (eight years ago)

this guy noticed it first

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/782781620189335552/MYnugr9i.jpg

Zach Haller
@zachhaller

Startup founder (@FOUNDiNTOWN) dying trying 2 make Good Samaritanship sexy. Writer & truth siren seen in @Forbes @Business @FastCompany @People @VH1 @CNN @Salon

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:21 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwND52JUEAAUNM8.jpg:small

texas agriculture commissioner now going through various excuses for this (i was hacked/it was a sloppy retweet/it was a staffer's fault)

mookieproof, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:27 (eight years ago)

My mistake! They aren't FOLLOWING Hillary....Michelle is the one with tweets removed. But why would they ALL unfollow her? I ask you, Glaucon!

Iago Galdston, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:29 (eight years ago)

and re: Zach Haller, don't throw stones, y'all got SO many freaks...Peter Daou, anyone?

Iago Galdston, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:30 (eight years ago)

Hey, could we get one of those threadbans for Iago Trollston? Thx!

My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:35 (eight years ago)

Nice try dude

https://twitter.com/wpjenna/status/793596639634219008

Trump tells WI voters they can legally change their early vote if they voted for Clinton: "A lot of stuff has come out since you voted."

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:36 (eight years ago)

looks like confirmation on this from newsninja2012.com, i guess it's all over

JoeStork, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:36 (eight years ago)

Hey, could we get one of those threadbans for Iago Trollston? Thx!

― My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Tuesday, November 1, 2016 4:35 PM (forty-three seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

oh come on, this thread gets 1000 posts a day. this one wacky fellow posts a few wacky things, deal with it

brimstead, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:39 (eight years ago)

How will we all stay woke w out iago

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:40 (eight years ago)

honestly i don't really get it, if this were even real what would be the logic? 'oh shit hillary's in trouble, i'd better ditch her on twitter before this orphan-punching news breaks.'

JoeStork, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:40 (eight years ago)

Duh, they're unfollowing her in anticipation of following her POTUS account @IKilledIagoWithMyBigFuckingDick

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:42 (eight years ago)

lol yes. they aren't going to distance themselves by taking back their endorsements or just disappearing down the stretch. they specifically felt that their pro-hillary twitter comments were the most damning thing to remove. xp

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:42 (eight years ago)

russian hackers did it obv

rap is dad (it's a boy!), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:43 (eight years ago)

yeah, that didn't happen. sorry iago.

i truly am not getting this fbi thing. why on earth would they want trump?

Treeship, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:44 (eight years ago)

They like Hillary, just not her spammy DMs.

who even are those other cats (Eazy), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:44 (eight years ago)

they don't want to lose their jobs xp

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:45 (eight years ago)

i forget, is iago a trump supporter or a bernie-or-bust type?

(The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:45 (eight years ago)

comey is in for a penny in for a pound at this pt

Mordy, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:45 (eight years ago)

Huh, stopped clock and all -- looks like Wisconsin law does allow for a changed vote:

http://wuwm.com/post/did-you-know-can-change-your-vote-wisconsin#stream/0

But per the story:

With more issues or accusations seemingly coming to light every few days about the presidential candidates, might some early voters want to change their minds?

Probably not, according to Neil Albrecht, executive director of the Milwaukee Election Commission. He says only a few people want to take back their initial vote.

“We’ve had less than half a dozen in the city of Milwaukee. We don’t ask voters their reasons obviously for wanting to spoil their initial absentee ballot, but there have been far more questions about the practice than actual voters requesting the opportunity to do it,” Albrecht says.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:46 (eight years ago)

Speaking of Bernie or Busters, I have a friend in California who's really been banging the drum lately on FB because Sanders is a recognized writein there, causing him to 'Bye Felicia' Jill Stein.

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Tuesday, 1 November 2016 23:51 (eight years ago)

If some Dems reportedly unfollowing Hillary on Twitter is the worst scandal Iago can dredge up, then he's pretty near the bottom of the scandal barrel.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:01 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/sarahkendzior/status/793202274566758401

feel like this is over the top.

Treeship, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:04 (eight years ago)

Man, the FBI is self-destructing: http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/fbi-clinton-marc-rich-investigation/

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:07 (eight years ago)

but it makes me think. how serious is it that the fbi director is trying to push things the republicans' way? how toxic is it going to be once hillary is president and all these yahoos think she is a literal criminal? xp

Treeship, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:08 (eight years ago)

yeah that was the straw for me. it's so gratuitous -- and it wasn't even comey who did that

Treeship, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:09 (eight years ago)

"Prior to Sunday, the account hadn't tweeted since October 2015. A law enforcement official told CNN that the Twitter account is an automatic feed and the tweets are not done manually. The official said the feed was down for a year until Sunday, when it was fixed and then began tweeting automatically"

Really good system.

jmm, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:11 (eight years ago)

sarah kendzior seems to be giving in to the paranoia. there's plenty of reason to expect some violent voter intimidation before this is over, and plenty of racism playing out everywhere for years to come, but she's more or less talking about apocalypse now.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:12 (eight years ago)

How do we feel about Hillary on tour with a certain Miss Universe?

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:17 (eight years ago)

god I wish we could have luriqua in this thread, only function to reply to everything Iago posts

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:19 (eight years ago)

(xpost) Maybe it's smart, I don't know. It does look like this transparently defensive attempt to rewind to a few weeks ago.

clemenza, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:23 (eight years ago)

holy shit a bunch of lions and tigers were found with BALLOTS at the Cleveland Zoo, presumably voting for Hillary!

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:23 (eight years ago)

Maybe it's smart, I don't know. It does look like this transparently defensive attempt to rewind to a few weeks ago.

Strikes me as no different than the new Khizr Khan commercial a couple of weeks back, just keep reminders out there.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:25 (eight years ago)

The Beltway press is so enamored of positive summations (somebody on NBC News bemoaned this chance being snatched from Hillary) that they forget how for many women (and for many blacks in 2008) anger, to quote sage John Lydon, is an energy.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:28 (eight years ago)

Only a tiny percentage of potential voters follow this stuff anywhere nearly as closely as the ilxors who haunt these threads. They watch with half an eye and listen with half an ear, so that HRC touring w/ Miss Universe is just a chance to have the media remind everyone who she is, by retelling her story. Not a desperate move at all. Just reinforcing a winning argument.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:31 (eight years ago)

any the big flux in the polls lately are awful republicans coming home to the fact that they are in fact awful and will vote for a piece of human garbage for president because he's on their awful team.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:35 (eight years ago)

have we done this thing yet
http://forward.com/news/breaking-news/353180/ku-klux-klan-newspaper-joins-sheldon-adelson-in-endorsing-donald-trump/

Mordy, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:40 (eight years ago)

god I wish we could have luriqua in this thread, only function to reply to everything Iago posts
― Neanderthal, Tuesday, November 1, 2016 7:19 PM (twenty-nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Mixtape for after you got hardsonned in the electoral college

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:52 (eight years ago)

Fuck Rick Wilson

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 00:59 (eight years ago)

otm

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:03 (eight years ago)

he is full of shit until it is proven otherwise

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:04 (eight years ago)

I guess we'll see on Friday

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:05 (eight years ago)

I believe Senator Jeff Flake speaks for us all

https://twitter.com/JeffFlake/status/793503341108002816

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:15 (eight years ago)

im glad someone had the courage to say it

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:18 (eight years ago)

at this point if Wilson is actually sitting on an oppo dump and not completely full of shit, it better be that Trump is a Sith lord or something

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:20 (eight years ago)

it's something to do with that russian server i'll bet

Treeship, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:24 (eight years ago)

or it's nothing. who is rick wilson anyway?

Treeship, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:25 (eight years ago)

Was in the B-52s if I recall correctly.

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:26 (eight years ago)

eh he makes a good point, Bush DUI story dropped the Friday before the election. DIDN'T WORK THOUGH https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/793579076753715205

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:32 (eight years ago)

in the final weeks of october 2016, a sizable group of onlookers found themselves obsessing over rick wilson's impending big dump.

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:33 (eight years ago)

FWIW, others have talked about it as well this week -- Luntz mentioned something due.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:34 (eight years ago)

in the final weeks of october 2016, a sizable group of onlookers found themselves obsessing over rick wilson's impending big dump.

― I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Tuesday, November 1, 2016 9:33 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Rick Wilson Dump Crowning

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:38 (eight years ago)

i thought the idea is that dumping on Friday is a bad idea cos everybody stops paying attention on the weekend

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:49 (eight years ago)

I will note the Access Hollywood tape came out on a Friday.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:50 (eight years ago)

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/fbi-hillary-clinton-devices-230592

This isn't preference this is incompetence. I'm a fucking paralegal and even I know you take every. single. device. when you do document collection.

I also know if the government actually had money they could load all this email data and be able to cross reference and dedupe across different productions and it doesn't take months and months to sort out like the FBI.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:51 (eight years ago)

xxpost true. kind of amazed at how that didn't finish him more than it did.

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 01:54 (eight years ago)

Trump is right that America has an attention span of two-three weeks max. Access Hollywood was nearly a month ago. Too soon unless the upcoming dump is next level, like a sex tape or orgy pics.

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:00 (eight years ago)

i do kinda take umbrage at how the media reacted to the Trump-Russia and Trump taxes stories, many of them saying "there doesn't seem to be much there, yada yada". I mean, they were *right*, but where was this hesitation on Friday when they were getting trolled by a right-leaning Congressman into thinking Hillary's investigation was "re-opened" cos of startling new details!

I mean I really, really am not asking the media to turn into a huge Perez Hilton column, it's just really horseshit that they didn't mind slapping together the story with zero details for Hillary. obv her story is 'sexier', speaking objectively, and Trump's are a little less exciting to the general public, but y'know...get one consistency.

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:01 (eight years ago)

i mean at this point, does the dump even have to be factual?

why not just post a pic of some dude's dick and superimpose it on Donald's body and be like "wow he has a small dick, do you want a President who doesn't measure up?"

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:08 (eight years ago)

I think the Rick Wilson dump is real, guys

frogbs, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:09 (eight years ago)

his dump is more real than you can even handle

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:10 (eight years ago)

His dump is real
It's real in my soul
His dump is real
Cos it has washed
And made me whole

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:16 (eight years ago)

His dump
His dump
His dump
Is in my head

His dump
His dump
His dump
He might be dead

I hope the Russians carve their pumpkins too (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:32 (eight years ago)

Survey: 28 percent of GOP early voters went for Clinton in Florida.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:41 (eight years ago)

That seems incredibly high

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:43 (eight years ago)

if true that's pretty heartening

Mordy, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:44 (eight years ago)

I'm looking for a source; only MSNBC/NBC is reporting it.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:55 (eight years ago)

That has to be the Cuban-American electorate if true, right? Other states won't have the benefit of that tilt.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:57 (eight years ago)

Only 6% of Dems voted Trump in that same survey

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 02:59 (eight years ago)

That has to be the Cuban-American electorate if true, right? Other states won't have the benefit of that tilt.

― Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever)

A friend reported this bit on social media. We'll see. It would surprise me.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:01 (eight years ago)

chris matthews!!

https://twitter.com/WDFx2EU7/status/793323182262358017

k3vin k., Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:10 (eight years ago)

I fuckin' hate Chris Matthews, but that was obviously clipped out of context.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:13 (eight years ago)

What's the context?

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:16 (eight years ago)

Whatever you think of Donald Trump, I mean, whatever you think of Donald Trump, you have to wonder, why isn't he doing it? Why isn't he running for president?

Why isn't he spending every hour asking the voters again and again do you like way things are? The way they've been headed in this country? Do you like the continued destruction of our manufacturing base, and the jobs that went with it? Do you like the uncontrolled illegal immigration? Do you like the string of stupid wars from Iraq to Libya to Syria? if you want to say yes to all of that, if you want to keep all this way it is, vote for Hillary Clinton. If you don't like the way things have been headed, you have have a chance to really shake the system to its roots.

And if you wake up the day after the election, and if it is the same as it is today. If it's the same four, five, or eight years from now, remember you had the chance to change it but you were too dainty to do it.

If Trump were to win the election, those would be the reasons listed right at the top of the newspaper the day afterward. So why doesn't he say now what would win him the election? Why doesn't he fight and create stupid headlines with his battles with Megyn Kelly and Dana Bash?

He seems to devote everyday day after day to fighting fights that make people forget the reasons he started running for president, reasons that continue to carry the shrinking chance he has to win this thing. I say this not because I want Trump to win, but because I can't stand politics being practiced so pathetically.

nomar, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:16 (eight years ago)

haha touché that twitter user

k3vin k., Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:17 (eight years ago)

To nomar: I think he says some of that stuff, but it's eclipsed by the id-dumps because the id-dumps play so well in his preferred settings - rallies and tweets. He loves the instant feedback and the adrenaline ruch of the crowd joining him in baying for blood. Whose blood matters less than the catharsis of baying, I guess, so Trump just aims his tiny babyfinger at whoever happens to be getting under his skin at the moment, and it thrilled when they obligingly roar their approval.

I hope the Russians carve their pumpkins too (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:26 (eight years ago)

Chris Matthews in context (but still as stupid as ever)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/10/28/chris_matthews_why_doesnt_trump_argue_if_you_dont_like_the_way_things_are_then_vote_for_me.html

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:32 (eight years ago)

Chris: "So why doesn't he say now what would win him the election?"

Perhaps because there is nothing he could say now that would win him the election? As we've all learned, Trump says a lot of shit, then he says the exact opposite, then he's proved to have lied, then he says whatever other shit he thinks people want to hear. Saying more shit won't do shit for him now.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:38 (eight years ago)

one of Trump's recurring ads talks about how Trump is going to turn Washington upside down, and I'm like "otm, but not for the reasons you think, Donald"

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:40 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/kharyp/status/793636378269642752

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:41 (eight years ago)

Any lawyers out there know if an NDA is made void if the information disclosed is in the public interest?

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:58 (eight years ago)

xxpost I don't think Trump ever STOPPED saying those things! his ads say all of those things verbatim! but how well does Matthews really think that is going to work, even if he avoided the traps he keeps falling into?

rump's appeal is largely those people who think politicians have "overcomplicated" things and the answers are simple. when you were a kid, you asked your parents why the President didn't just fling money in the street so that there would be no more poor people, because it made sense to you? Trump voters still think like that - the answers have always been in front of us, we're too PC to see them! which is why none of his core base thinks twice about how weird it is that a guy with no military experience thinks himself an expert on terrorism, and his other contradictory pieces.

I mean, Americans are dumb, but that level of stupid isn't present in enough registered or likely voters to win an election. the whole reason everybody expected a pivot is not just because the GOP would try and force him into it, but because once Trump hooked his base, he didn't have to recite his extreme, inflammatory rhetoric anymore, because as they've proven time and again, once they decided he was their man, they didn't really bother to pay attention to anything he said or did after that. he could have easily pivoted as we all predicted at various points, won those Republicans who weren't blithering idiots, and even some independents, and yet continued to throw his base some bones at rallies as long as they weren't making negative headlines that would scare away new converts.

I know many of us (me included) thought he really didn't want the job at various points but I don't believe that anymore. I think he does want it, despite being naive as hell about what the job entails and his ability to do it, and his reasons for not pivoting probably aren't that he's trying to lose, and because he believes all the inane contradictory shit he says, and why should he tone it down if he can win on his own terms?

as said upthread, it's just the Dunning-Kruger effect. the same reason he thinks he knows more than military experts about war and counter-terrorist organizations about terrorism is the same reason he thinks he knows more about winning elections than campaign managers.

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:58 (eight years ago)

xpost wasn't that what The Insider was about?

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 03:58 (eight years ago)

Good question/memory! In that movie/real life story, didn't it vary from state to state, which is why he had to break his NDA in Mississippi?

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 04:02 (eight years ago)

Interesting Georgia post from ElectProject just now.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793664597987172352

And he added in another one: "Georgia's early electorate getting younger as Election Day nears....this is a typical pattern everywhere." Combined with the majority of early votes coming from women, that could be worth noting.

Overall EV total north of 28 million.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 04:10 (eight years ago)

UK media are talking of the race tightening, the Trump surge, etc.

Do you American observers think this is misguided?

the pinefox, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 09:19 (eight years ago)

Yes, pretty much. Here's a good primer:

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/01/beware-phantom-swings-why-dramatic-swings-in-the-p/

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 09:37 (eight years ago)

UK media are talking of the race tightening, the Trump surge, etc.

They're obsessed by it.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 10:23 (eight years ago)

Usually campaigns exude a whiff of panic when the internals are bad: I smelled it in Kerry in 2004; McCain was a rotting corpse. Romney was the outlier because he and most of the GOP apparatus had horrible polls or believed polls showing Obama's slim lead would flip. So far I don't see that panic in the Clinton camp.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 10:25 (eight years ago)

The UK media is just desperate for a good story and to get the UK public interested in something other than gazing at their own navels. The BBC already get our money, whether we like it or not, so I don't know why they're chasing the story.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 10:33 (eight years ago)

With the Beeb in particular, they're paying lip service to even-handedness/impartiality by talking up Trump's chances, as well hedging their bets against another 'shock' Brexit-like result. But I genuinely have learnt more about this American election from the web, and from ILX, than I have from the BBC, whose coverage has been woeful - superficial and inaccurate.

Foster Twelvetrees (Ward Fowler), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 10:41 (eight years ago)

Usually campaigns exude a whiff of panic when the internals are bad: I smelled it in Kerry in 2004; McCain was a rotting corpse. Romney was the outlier because he and most of the GOP apparatus had horrible polls or believed polls showing Obama's slim lead would flip. So far I don't see that panic in the Clinton camp.

Yeah I have to echo this. There's been an underlying "steady on" sense of things being ok their end this whole time, the occasional moments of frustration aside. The results of the early voting factored in as well, you get a sense they're working away to put it all to bed rather than flailing.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 10:47 (eight years ago)

xp, how strange that when I read your description of the BBC it dawned on me that these days I have a kind of condescension for the mainstream outlets, wondering if they will catch on to the stuff I have sourced elsewhere.

MatthewK, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 10:49 (eight years ago)

I guess a product of slashed journalism budgets and increased individual access to sources.

MatthewK, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 10:50 (eight years ago)

BBC has been fucking awful on the US since Charles Wheeler retired as Newsnight's US correspondent (I think in the early 90s, I can't find a date on the internet as he went on making radio documentaries and such). His Newsnight successor was an vapid twerp called Gavin Smith, who just trotted out digests of whatever the big US papers and networks said (he also had a really annoying voice).

Wheeler was old-school BBC, but had also been on the spot in the US during the 60s and 70s, covering race riots and Nixon and so on, so he had a lot of experience of how fucked up things could get. (His daughter married Boris Johnson. I don't know where to file or how to process this element in the story.)

mark s, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:01 (eight years ago)

actually i don't think he was called gavin smith (GiS certainly didn't come up with his punchable face)

googling "bbc US correspondent with irritating voice" is giving me nothing

mark s, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:07 (eight years ago)

gavin esler?

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:09 (eight years ago)

no, he wasn't great but this guy was far worse

maybe david something

mark s, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:15 (eight years ago)

David Sells

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:18 (eight years ago)

nope

lol this is even less interesting than the washing cars maths problem

mark s, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:19 (eight years ago)

Esler was Newsnight's North America correspondent from 1990.

Michael Jones, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:22 (eight years ago)

Wheeler was apparently just the "Chief Correspondent" 1980-1995, they let him more or less do as he wanted?

What a fucking career though: sub-editor, Latin American Service, BBC 1947-49, German Service correspondent 1950-53, Talks writer, European Service 1954-56, Producer, Panorama 1956-58; South Asia Correspondent 1958-62, Berlin Correspondent 1962-65, Washington Correspondent 1965-68; Chief US Correspondent 1969-73, Chief Europe Correspondent, 1973-76, Chief Correspondent, BBC Television News 1977, Chief Correspondent, Panorama 1977-79, Chief Correspondent, Newsnight 1980-95

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:24 (eight years ago)

yes, that's right -- he had been us correspondent and tended to carry on covering the bigger events (like elections) till he stopped, and this guy took over. esler was this guy's successor iirc

mark s, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:28 (eight years ago)

David Sells

...but who's buying?

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:29 (eight years ago)

ok haha it's this guy (c4 and itn, not the bbc, apologies bbc but ur still terrible): http://www.the-buyer.net/opinion/david-smith-itn-foreign-correspondent-on-making-wines-in-argentina/

http://www.the-buyer.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/david-smith-low.jpeg

mark s, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:32 (eight years ago)

also apologies us election thread

mark s, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:34 (eight years ago)

They won't mind - a change is as good as A rest.

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:41 (eight years ago)

I've always great affection for Charles Wheeler.

Criticism of BBC can be overdone. I have listened to tons of R4 and watched tons of Newsnight as well as watching some of the more regular 6pm, 10pm reports. The former (eg Evan Davis interviewing US specialists on Newsnight who really know things) are not to be dismissed. They're a similar level of insight and exchange of ideas that you get in a good informed online source.

Standard 10 o'clock news reports are a bit different, not great, somewhat informative for people who don't know much about it all, and arguably suffer from 'balance' eg feeling obliged to say 'BOTH candidates are unpopular' or 'One thing's for sure - this is a very strange election' rather than 'This is a senior politician vs a sociopath' - etc.

I am hopeful that the extensive early voting will counter 'late polls tightening' effects.

the pinefox, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:42 (eight years ago)

"The polls are tightening - And that's OK"

the pinefox, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 11:47 (eight years ago)

I mean, the polls *have* tightened compared to where they were a couple of weeks ago. It's not clear whether that's Comey-related, though. The 538 crew has speculated that it's GOP voters finally coming around and supporting their party, as they probably always would have. Whether the polls will continue to tighten over the next week, and whether we should be panicking about that, are different questions.

Wozniak on Kimye's Baby (jaymc), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 13:30 (eight years ago)

https://i.redd.it/vdawl7t1i3vx.gif

(•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 13:33 (eight years ago)

Thing is, HRC's camp had mentioned (or had mentioned about them) well before last Friday that they figured the polls would tighten regardless. So this wasn't a surprise to them (and in fact, I'd argue that everything we're generally seeing in terms of her perceived/real negatives is incredibly well known by her and the campaign -- and that a lot of people don't allow for this self-awareness).

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 13:35 (eight years ago)

The polls have tightened, the polls may continue to tighten over the next week, and we should not be panicking about that as long as we're voting.

My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 13:37 (eight years ago)

I also warned that the polls would tighten some days back. Don't panic, the dem coalition is larger than the gop one.

Frederik B, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 13:40 (eight years ago)

in other words, frederik b has been otm in this thread

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 13:43 (eight years ago)

Princeton does a model where Trump outperforms all polling by 2 percent.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/princeton-election-consortium-trump-outperforms-polls

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 13:48 (eight years ago)

The only thing that gives me any pause is the X factor of Trump actually turning out a lot of people who usually don't vote. But nothing I've seen in either the registration data or early voting data so far suggests there's some kind of "silent majority" surge.

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 13:49 (eight years ago)

Purely anecdotal, but I still have not talked to a single person from any walk of life who wasn't anti-Trump, and often vehemently so, except for the relative who did some mild Trump stumping at a funeral several months back and then died himself not long after.

My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 13:54 (eight years ago)

in fact I think the opposite may well wind up happening - I know plenty of people who aren't exactly excited for president Hillary Clinton but absolutely couldn't stomach the idea of a man like Trump having any power over their lives. same people who 4 years ago said "eh, either is fine"

frogbs, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 13:56 (eight years ago)

Trump will not be able to turn out people who don't usually vote without a GOTV operation that, like, exists.

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:00 (eight years ago)

Politics have become a topic of everyday discussion like I've never experienced among people who usually have no interest or prefer to avoid voicing their opinion in that arena, and it's usually fueled by varying degrees of outrage that this maniac is so close to becoming president.

The thing I realized a little while back which made me more relaxed about the whole affair is that, even if they're dissatisfied with some things in life, most people like their stuff, the order of their lives, the small, reliable things around them. For better or worse, life in the US simply isn't bad enough for enough people to fuel an effective revolt against reliability.

My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:00 (eight years ago)

if you woulda told me back in 2008 that a reality TV star would be within sniffing distance of the Presidency this year, I would have assumed it was P Diddy

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:02 (eight years ago)

Possibly Verne Troyer.

My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:04 (eight years ago)

xps

Yeah, the apocalyptic fever dream of Trump's campaign is too out of step with lived reality. (Including that of his supporters, who I guess enjoy it the way you enjoy pro wrestling, cheering and pretending it's real because it provides cover to say all the terrible things they long to say.)

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:05 (eight years ago)

the other thing is most of the tightening seen now is in national tracking polls, as opposed to state, and nationals are pointless to focus on at this point (esp tracking polls).

Virginia for instance is Clinton +4 in a poll taken by conservative polling firm Remington Research (who has churned out mostly LOL results thus far) and that polling was all done on Sunday.

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:06 (eight years ago)

"Morning Joe" spent five fruitless minutes convincing viewers that Michigan is "in play."

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:11 (eight years ago)

http://deadline.com/2016/11/louis-c-k-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-conan-video-1201846694/

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:22 (eight years ago)

in other words, frederik b has been otm in this thread

o_0

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:24 (eight years ago)

I think plenty of us have put in time walking Treeship and frogbs away from cliffs.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:28 (eight years ago)

Something's rotten in the state of ILX xp

imago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:31 (eight years ago)

btw I'm fully convinced that the UK's MM is shitter than America's but I'm not sure how it came to this

imago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:32 (eight years ago)

y'all haven't recovered from Westlife's run on the pop charts

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 14:33 (eight years ago)

in fact I think the opposite may well wind up happening - I know plenty of people who aren't exactly excited for president Hillary Clinton but absolutely couldn't stomach the idea of a man like Trump having any power over their lives. same people who 4 years ago said "eh, either is fine"

― frogbs

was interested in that gallup poll recently- the one that found that 60% of clinton supporters have a hard time respecting trump supporters, whereas only 40% of trump supporters have a hard time respecting clinton supporters. i feel like a lot of republicans think this is the game, this is how you play it, whereas democrats are just completely horrified.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:02 (eight years ago)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mississippi-church-burned-vandalized-trump_us_5819ef95e4b01f610e393372

(•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:09 (eight years ago)

Oh good New Hampshire voters basically hold the rest of the country's future in the palms of their hands

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/01/three-easy-pieces/

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:14 (eight years ago)

yeah I came to that conclusion the other day playing with the map. assuming clinton wins the swing states she's had consistently strong polls in (co/nm/va/cold midwest states), trump can sweep the rest, including florida and ohio, and still not win without NH. NV can play the same role.

iatee, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:22 (eight years ago)

I've been thinking lately that possibly the worst aspect of the Trump presidency that will never happen is the number of GOP figures who have revealed themselves to be truly unprincipled in aligning with Trump in opposition to their stated values, which would seem to belie any notion that there would be sufficient checks and balances in place to keep him from going completely apeshit. I can muster a begrudging respect for someone who holds fast to (unbigoted) values that aren't my own, but I shudder to think of these spineless shitheels who hold elected office and are willing to immolate whatever moral foundation they have in deference to a debased orangutan simply because it decided to start calling itself a republican. I can only hope that history is bitterly unkind to every public figure who endorsed him and that their careers shrivel on the vine.

My son has a confession to make. It's about your waffles. (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:24 (eight years ago)

i feel like all that stuff is valid for a Clinton presidency, too. There's already talk of impeachment

a (waterface), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:25 (eight years ago)

oh fun! sounds like a good time

(•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:29 (eight years ago)

How The Election Could Get Even Crazier on November 9

There's clickbait, and then there's clickbait

Le Bateau Ivre, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:31 (eight years ago)

many xps Yeah impeachment hearings start on day 2 at the latest.

So does the PR effort to slam Rs for spending so much time, money, and effort on Whitewater/Benghazi hearings and voting to repeal Obamacare and reinvestigating the already investigated emails and and and.

Pre-Trompe, I thought the main Dem narrative would be about GOPstruction / Party of No stuff vs. governing more or less competently. With a side order of increasing wokeness on culture-war stuff. I thought the main GOP narrative would be "how many departments will you abolish on day 1" figurative dick-measuring contests, with a side order of the usual racist/misogynist/antigay culture-war shite.

When the contest became about _literal_ dick-measuring, and the racial dog whistles became overt foghorns, I lost my confidence in my own predictive ability and haven't regained it.

I hope the Russians carve their pumpkins too (Ye Mad Puffin), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:39 (eight years ago)

xpost to LBI lol, i clicked before i even read your comment! i had to.

It's almost certain that during Election Day, Breitbart, Drudge and Co. will be running stories about voter fraud, ballot box stuffing, votes by illegal immigrants and tampered voting machines. (For their part, Democrats will be complaining of voter intimidation, long lines and deliberate attempts at voter suppression.)

BOTH SIDES DO IT

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:41 (eight years ago)

xpost to LBI lol, i clicked before i even read your comment! i had to.

It's evil! That's why it works so damn well

Le Bateau Ivre, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:44 (eight years ago)

I maintain that the one and only thing I agree with Trump about is that the news media is largely a cesspool (although this particular election has also hearteningly spurred some top-notch journalism).

All-Night Burger Party (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:53 (eight years ago)

Yea but Trump arrived at that conclusion for v different reasons than you.

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:56 (eight years ago)

Sort of if you handed him five objects and made him count them and he counted them "3, 7, 21, 8, 5"

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:57 (eight years ago)

http://replygif.net/i/184.gif

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:03 (eight years ago)

I dunno, I'm also of the opinion that the media is terrible and unfair because they've given me decades of free press despite the fact that I'm demonstrably a walking pile of garbage. Sad!

All-Night Burger Party (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:04 (eight years ago)

It's funny that Trump can accuse the media of being rigged when he's benefited from them more than anyone. He owes all of his success this election to media enablement.

jmm, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:05 (eight years ago)

B-but they weren't supposed to bring up any of that bad stuff he did, or cast his opponents in anything but an unflattering light. They're so unfair! It's so unfair when reality doesn't mold itself precisely to the whims of his manbaby ego!!!

All-Night Burger Party (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:13 (eight years ago)

"Let's talk about 538"

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/581a08d1e4b014443087af3a?timestamp=1478101762751

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:16 (eight years ago)

will mods be OK with my posting Jake gifs from here till Tuesday?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:16 (eight years ago)

I take some comfort in the fact that one day even the memory of Trump will be gone from the universe.

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:16 (eight years ago)

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/obama-on-fbi-we-dont-operate-on-innuendo/

Mordy, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:22 (eight years ago)

McMullin's definitely causing Trump Utah heartache if this is being talked about:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/trump-campaign-scrambles-to-lock-down-utah

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:28 (eight years ago)

Question from a dummy, but: can/is potus briefed in secret about why the fbi is looking into this again?

Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:29 (eight years ago)

I'm sure POTUS learned about it last week but the sense I'm getting is that the Comey letter was going to happen regardless.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:32 (eight years ago)

I'm sure POTUS learned about it last week but the sense I'm getting is that the Comey letter was going to happen regardless.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:32 (eight years ago)

i repeat myself when i'm distressed
i repeat myself when i'm distressed

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:34 (eight years ago)

J. Edgar Hoover is laughing his ass off in hell about the FBI innuendo comment

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:39 (eight years ago)

Question from a dummy, but: can/is potus briefed in secret about why the fbi is looking into this again?

― Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Wednesday, November 2, 2016 4:29 PM (nine minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it was reported that both Obama and Loretta Lynch tried to get Comey to back off the letter.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:39 (eight years ago)

killfiling all of you except for ned, alfred and caek

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/1b/51/2a/1b512a620724a8c7da7a1e8bf3d9be39.gif

mookieproof, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:44 (eight years ago)

Hilarious reaction just now out of Nevada -- Jon Ralston, longtime GOP political observer/election wonk there, has completely trashed a new CNN poll showing Trump suddenly up by 7.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793852432216449024

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793852908743888896

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793853963145707521

Keep in mind that he's been steadily reporting Nevada polls and early voting, and the numbers consistently show more Democratic votes. Other pollsters are noting that the state is historically a hard one to poll to start with, with the Latino vote often missed out completely (which seems to be the case here).

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:45 (eight years ago)

this thread is getting more frenetic and edgy the closer we get to 11/8

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:56 (eight years ago)

To be expected, but particularly when the media is milking the narrative that it's neck and neck! A dead heat! It'll be a photo finish and may not even be decided by Tuesday!

All-Night Burger Party (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 16:59 (eight years ago)

no surprise:

George P. Bush said Tuesday that his uncle, former President George W. Bush, may join his grandfather George H.W. Bush in casting his ballots for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, according to the Associated Press.

The Texas land commissioner made the comments while addressing a small Republican rally in San Marcos, Texas, on Tuesday night, saying that both former presidents in the family may "potentially" vote for the Democratic presidential ticket come Election Day.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:00 (eight years ago)

More from Ralston earlier this morning:

The SOS did not update its site with rural numbers last night, so those have yet to come in. But here's what we know:

The Dems won the urban counties by a net 1,800 votes Tuesday -- 2,200 in Clark and lost 400 in Washoe. So the statewide lead is about 33,000 without the rurals, which means it's probably closer to 32,000.

The Clark raw vote lead is now about 50,000, which means it is almost identical to 2012, although the percentage is slightly less because of the 150,000 additional voters. Washoe is at about 1,900 -- that's six times better what it was at this time in 2012.

What I wrote in 2012 seems apt -- just substitute Donald Trump for Mitt Romney:

"There are still three days left for the Democrats to solidfy their firewall, but they will not get to 83,000 (the 2008 lead), nor will they get to the 12,000-voter lead in Washoe County, where the Democrats have a 500-vote early/mail lead (absentees not in yet all counted in Washoe) out of about 80,000 votes cast. I still think the Democrats have an advantage unless Mitt Romney is winning independents by 20 points or more -- and depending on just how large Election Day turnout is for Republicans. My guess is Democratic Party strategists feel good, but not quite secure."

Bottom line: The next three days are huge, starting with today when Hillary Clinton comes to try to juice the early vote in Vegas. Remember the last day (Friday) is always the biggest. If the Dems can add 10,000 votes to their lead, they will feel pretty good. If they add 20,000, which would bring it to the same number as the end of 2012, it's big trouble for Trump and Senate hopeful Joe Heck, and we can start talking about a mini-wave at least.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:06 (eight years ago)

xp This was also in the context of saying he was the only Bush voting straight-ticket, I think.

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:07 (eight years ago)

Someone surely has already made a gif of Darth W. Bush throwing a black-cloaked Trumperor down a shaft, right?

All-Night Burger Party (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:11 (eight years ago)

pretty hard to imagine dubya voting for a guy who built his candidacy on a. bragging that he was against the the terrible iraq war and b. mocking his brother.

question is whether he's willing to come out publicly against trump or even possibly endorse clinton. there aren't a bunch of republicans sitting around waiting to make their decision on what he thinks, but it's the type of thing that would really take over the news for a few days.

iatee, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:14 (eight years ago)

... but might not help Hillary at all.

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:16 (eight years ago)

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/66/10/13/6610131c167c6b457e9563a16be5c431.jpg

traitors imo

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:17 (eight years ago)

my point is that it would help clinton because the news wouldn't be pushing whatever faux clinton scandal story instead

iatee, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:20 (eight years ago)

gwb isn't going to publically endorse clinton

marcos, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:21 (eight years ago)

New PA poll has Clinton up four, new WI poll up six.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:26 (eight years ago)

is anybody really influenced by the things gwb says or does?

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:26 (eight years ago)

at this point I expect GWB to endorse Michelle Obama

¶ (DJP), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:27 (eight years ago)

Separately Elections Project reports that the current CO Democratic early vote lead is 1.9 points, but adds:

I believe Trump needs about a +7 point registration edge in Colorado to be competitive, a Dem lead at this late date is not good for him

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:28 (eight years ago)

what does he have to lose? w/ jeb's political career dead, the bushes have nothing but their legacy to think about.
xp

iatee, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:29 (eight years ago)

and the guy who could conceivably be the next republican president is making that legacy toxic even within the republican party

iatee, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:30 (eight years ago)

I think Jeb's going to come out of this better than Cruz / Ryan / Christie! Not well enough to ever run for president again, I hope.

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:32 (eight years ago)

when dad woke up this morning in the hospital I tried to troll him (as he is anti-Hillary and hates Obama) by saying it was 11/9 and they'd convened and decided Obama was going to serve a third term.

he didn't find it amusing, which is how I know he feels better

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:34 (eight years ago)

jeb has been thoroughly emasculated by trump in an era where republicans just want a strongman leader

maybe if he were to kill putin in hand to hand combat or something

iatee, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:36 (eight years ago)

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/09/politics/jeb-bush-kill-baby-hitler/

nomar, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:38 (eight years ago)

that is still one of the best headlines

¶ (DJP), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:38 (eight years ago)

Hell yeah Jeb Bush kill baby Hitler

jmm, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:41 (eight years ago)

got my vote

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:42 (eight years ago)

Meanwhile Bannon's all "Yeah that was fun, back to Breitbart soon, bye!"

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303998-trump-campaign-ceo-returning-to-breitbart-after-election

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:44 (eight years ago)

@hollybdc
Trump says Wikileaks will be dumping more details today and that he will talk about it tmrw

how does he know? it is a mystery

mookieproof, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

He could say that any day, really.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

If Trump needs people with media experience to help him out in the closing stages of the campaign, maybe try some of these guys, they love him.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:48 (eight years ago)

Well, it remains to see how many of those that just want a strongman leader* stay in the Republican party.

*ryan_pumped.jpg, obviously.

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 17:49 (eight years ago)

This one's even better:

https://twitter.com/hollybdc/status/793853419740139520

Trump: “Pretend we’re behind! Pretend we’re behind!”

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:00 (eight years ago)

BREAKING: http://www.vulture.com/2016/11/susan-sarandon-endorses-jill-stein-for-president.html?mid=facebook_vulture

¶ (DJP), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:15 (eight years ago)

lol

(•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:18 (eight years ago)

the best thing about the clinton email thing is now everyone in government is gonna go the CEO route and never do anything remotely important over email whatsoever.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:20 (eight years ago)

god sarandon has been such a troll this year

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:25 (eight years ago)

everytime i see bannon i think of this creep

http://www.startribune.com/the-stalker-of-the-current-s-mary-lucia-receives-probation-and-five-year-restraining-order/363852911/

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:25 (eight years ago)

the best thing about the clinton email thing is now everyone in government is gonna go the CEO route and never do anything remotely important over email whatsoever.

― carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries)

probably a good plan, the internet is kind of broken

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:26 (eight years ago)

i am a fan of new york house candidate zephyr teachout, but this make me lol

https://twitter.com/bobby/status/793668162508259328

goole, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:33 (eight years ago)

David Frum: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/11/dont-gamble-on-trump/506207/

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:34 (eight years ago)

the four people who care who sarandon endorses are enthused

akm, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:42 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwRlnrBXEAAczv4.jpg

Οὖτις, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:48 (eight years ago)

That's Jake Lloyd, right?

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 18:56 (eight years ago)

Looks like a young Boris... Yeltsin, that is.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:01 (eight years ago)

A tiny part of me wants Trump to win just to see what happens. I know that this is wrong and I feel bad about it

paolo, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:03 (eight years ago)

You should!

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:03 (eight years ago)

I also enjoy reading articles about the alt right and what's really motivating Trump's supporters even though they always make me angry. It's that feeling of being fascinated by something that you find horriying

paolo, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:06 (eight years ago)

Anyway, last set of polls today (I think) from Quinnipac:

Clinton+1 in FL
Clinton+3 in NC
Trump+5 in OH
Clinton+5 in PA

About what I would expect based on everything else.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:06 (eight years ago)

Separately, early voting now hit 30 million and I wouldn't be surprised by 31 million tonight. By tomorrow morning at some point 2016 early votes will have exceeded the total of raw votes in 2012 that were early; we obviously won't know percentage until after Tuesday.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:12 (eight years ago)

fuck ohio

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:13 (eight years ago)

I don't enjoy it at all, not in the slightest. Feel like I might've got some kind of excitement out of it back when I was in my 20s, but now it just makes me :( in a variety of ways.

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:13 (eight years ago)

Donald Trump comes from a small meteorite which falls on Earth. An old man finds it and pokes it using a piece of tree branch, making the meteorite crack and revealing the small thing inside. He pokes it again, but it climbs up to his hand, dissolving it. The old man is found by a couple, who take him to a doctor. Unfortunately, the thing dissolves the old man and the doctor, growing in proportion. The couple try to alert the police, to no avail. At the same time the unidentified thing is rampaging in the city, eating everyone in his path. The couple continue on trying to alert the populace, being heard only when the organism shows himself, now with gigantic proportions. While the police try to stop Donald with firearms, the couple find the thing's weakness when they use a fire extinguisher on it and later this couple from Queens, NY by the name of Fred and Mary Trump adopted it and called it Donald.

All-Night Burger Party (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:13 (eight years ago)

i keep trying to convince myself that president trump won't be as bad as it seems but i really can't and for the first time in my life yesterday i experienced anxiety-induced dyspnea :/

Mordy, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:15 (eight years ago)

he's not going to win though

a (waterface), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:16 (eight years ago)

Good point from Nate Cohn just now:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793894261410369536

Trump hasn't led a live interview poll of North Carolina since September

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:16 (eight years ago)

Separately, early voting now hit 30 million and I wouldn't be surprised by 31 million tonight. By tomorrow morning at some point 2016 early votes will have exceeded the total of raw votes in 2012 that were early; we obviously won't know percentage until after Tuesday.

― Ned Raggett, Wednesday, November 2, 2016 3:12 PM (three minutes ago)

is there a structural explanation for why early voting numbers are up? have states liberalized the rules since the last election?

k3vin k., Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:17 (eight years ago)

he's not going to win though

i think he probably isn't going to win

Mordy, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:18 (eight years ago)

is there a structural explanation for why early voting numbers are up? have states liberalized the rules since the last election?

Ha, if anything there's been limitations or plays at same (thus North Carolina). I stand by my 'over and done with' take. If I had to guess enthusiasm as such, more people out there are going 'fuck Trump' than 'yay Trump,' but that's not structural.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:19 (eight years ago)

We thought there was no way Brexit could happen. There was an ILB FAP on the night of the referendum and I insisted one ILXor, who hadn't voted yet, stay in the pub for another beer because there was no way Brexit could win. He didn't vote and that made all the difference and Brexit won ;_;

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:22 (eight years ago)

WELL.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:22 (eight years ago)

Brexit was in the "tossup" category for most data aggregators as of the final polling, as both SAm Wang and Nate Silver have pointed out. it was by no means a slam dunk for "remain"

Neanderthal, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:23 (eight years ago)

No previous presidential candidate to whom I was vehemently opposed would've been any worse than W., who was pretty bad and definitely did some serious damage. Dispiriting and malaise-inducing but nothing truly catastrophic. But I absolutely agree with whoever said that the election of Trump would mark the end of the American experiment. I can't allow myself to believe that the people in this country would embrace nihilism to that extent, and I'm glad that the electoral math seems to bear that out. Because when I peer beyond the hypothetical post-11/9 fork in the road, I have no hopeful vision for the future under a President Trump.

All-Night Burger Party (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

Brexit vote was a straight referendum, US election is not. Apples and oranges.

All-Night Burger Party (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:25 (eight years ago)

New poll claiming Trump up three in Virginia which...I doubt. (Different reasons from Nevada for being an outlier, but that's an outlier for sure.)

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:26 (eight years ago)

xp you mean pippins and don-dons

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:26 (eight years ago)

Brexit vote was a straight referendum, US election is not. Apples and oranges.

Also, wasn't the Brexit electorate something like 90% white, where the US electorate is likely to be more like 70% white? Combine that with the fact that the US presidential election is in fact 51 elections, and there's really no sensible comparison.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:26 (eight years ago)

Minnesota is def pushing it and made it easier to get an absentee vote. they have centers set up where you can do easy on the spot absentee forms and vote right away.

http://www.startribune.com/why-wait-for-election-day-voting-underway-in-minnesota/394559671/

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:27 (eight years ago)

I can't allow myself to believe that the people in this country would embrace nihilism to that extent, and I'm glad that the electoral math seems to bear that out.

the fact that Trump is polling as high as he is indicates that the American experiment is in trouble

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:28 (eight years ago)

or, just that most Americans/most people are very stupid... nothing new...

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:28 (eight years ago)

kids are all right

http://election.scholastic.com/vote

mookieproof, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:29 (eight years ago)

It's probably a mistake to assume that most people are "stupid".

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:29 (eight years ago)

no assumption necessary, historical record of humanity p definitive in that regard imo

Οὖτις, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:31 (eight years ago)

that scholastic map is interesting....the trump candidacy has really poisoned the GOP brand among so many demographics: latinos, african americans, young people, asians, muslim americans, etc etc....

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:31 (eight years ago)

the fact that Trump is polling as high as he is indicates that the American experiment is in trouble

― flappy bird

we're still doing better than south korea

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:32 (eight years ago)

And we're doing way better than North Korea

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:33 (eight years ago)

A little more on that seemingly out of nowhere Florida poll last night with 28% of GOP early voters going for Hillary, from the guy who runs the firm:

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/793858176265424897

I will note - the 28% GOP crossover among EV/AV surprised me, but you'll notice those voters behave as traditional Republicans otherwise

When asked for more, he noted that the sample felt like this on other issues: "Voting for Rubio, and high Obama job disapproval."

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:34 (eight years ago)

most ppl are definitely not in a position to make informed political decisions bc they have other interests or they're tired or they have serious misconceptions (about history, economics, the way our government works) - if "stupid" means these then sure. i don't think generally speaking the problem is that they're low IQ or whatever.

Mordy, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:36 (eight years ago)

yeah i mean reporting the numbers is fine, and they seem good for us on the surface, but i'm more inclined to seek a simpler, less sexy explanation (as in, there is some structural change in voter demographics or voting laws) rather than reading what i want to read into it ("everyone i have talked to hates trump so these numbers must mean the democrats are going to win")

just did a quick search for more info and this whole article is worth reading in full but here's a key bit (although it applies to NC specifically):

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Already, about 2,098,000 people have voted in North Carolina, out of about 4,489,000 we think will eventually vote. Based on the voting history and demographic characteristics of those people, we think Hillary Clinton leads in North Carolina by about 6 percentage points. We think she has an even larger lead – 10 percentage points – among people who have already voted.

As early voting continues, our estimates will gradually shift as low-turnout voters lock in their votes, and as doubts arise about whether people who haven’t voted yet actually will.

The big thing to watch is the trend: Is the early vote changing the composition of the electorate to the advantage of either candidate?

Heading into the early vote, our estimate was that Mrs. Clinton had a six-point lead in the state. The early vote so far hasn’t been enough to move that assessment. That’s because the turnout is largely following our expectations.

nothing about why early voting is higher this year, but it looks like the data show that, at least in NC, the big early voting lead for clinton is what was expected, based on who tends to vote early. then again, this is a fairly good sign, as if everything goes "as expected", HRC would win NC by 6 points

k3vin k., Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:36 (eight years ago)

massive xpost

k3vin k., Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:38 (eight years ago)

http://www.clickhole.com/article/embarrassing-us-ranked-182nd-world-alphabetically-1855

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:40 (eight years ago)

i don't think you can underestimate

* how much people hate hillary clinton and how that hatred has been beaten into them over the past 25 years
* how terrified white men are of losing their hold on being mediocre but still having power

maura, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:40 (eight years ago)

Definitely not something to handwave.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:40 (eight years ago)

Huh. Honestly didn't expect it. (And before anyone asks, Wilson said some days ago this case was not the things he's been hinting at.)

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:42 (eight years ago)

i don't think you can underestimate

* how much people hate hillary clinton and how that hatred has been beaten into them over the past 25 years
* how terrified white men are of losing their hold on being mediocre but still having power

sure--but those two populations are not that large overall--30%, max give or take

a (waterface), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:43 (eight years ago)

one of the things that really cooled me on bernie supporters (not the candidate, but his supporters) was the way that the younger ones especially were echoing talking points first laid down by rush limbaugh when i was in high school. the water has been thoroughly poisoned.

did being a target of the right-wing conspiracy (which is real) give hillary ovaries of steel and make her uniquely qualified to stand up to trump's imbecility? i'd say yes. but her being a woman who is speaking her mind just FILLS MEN WITH RAGE. ask women—even that trump supporter profiled in the post last month—if they'd been in similar situations to hers, where men just disagree with a woman because they feel an innate need to do so and then get REALLY PISSED about it when they find out they're wrong, and i bet you any one who had advanced in any way would say yes.

maura, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:43 (eight years ago)

dude men who are freaked out by women are everywhere, even (especially?) in 'progressive' areas

maura, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:43 (eight years ago)

ok maybe not especially. but my point stands

maura, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:43 (eight years ago)

most ppl are definitely not in a position to make informed political decisions bc they have other interests or they're tired or they have serious misconceptions (about history, economics, the way our government works) - if "stupid" means these then sure. i don't think generally speaking the problem is that they're low IQ or whatever.

― Mordy, Wednesday, November 2, 2016 3:36 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yes, i absolutely agree. bill maher played a clip of chomsky talking about this recently, something to the effect of: when you listen to sports talk radio and hear the people that call in, it's a very sophisticated, nuanced, and informed opinion about football or whatever, statistics and all that... it's not that most people aren't capable of being informed, they either choose not to or their environment prevents or discourages it from happening. 'stupid' is obv a sexy, reductive catch all

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:44 (eight years ago)

are you talking about men who are freaked out by women or people who hate hilary

cause those are different things

a (waterface), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:44 (eight years ago)

there is more overlap between the two than you might think.

maura, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:44 (eight years ago)

definitely not something to handwave, but i want to get back to that gallup poll- i think hatred of trump runs _deeper_ than hatred of clinton, and extends to his supporters more easily than hatred of clinton does to her supporters.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:45 (eight years ago)

maura otm

xpost

I wonder if the GOP mindset and worldview that's been developed over the past 20 years (let's say post-Newt or whenever you want to mark its decline into right wing talk radio enforced insantiy) is inherently hostile to early voting. Like to the Democrat point of view it's government providing a service conveniently, sort of the model for how government should work an generally positive view that government works and provides things to the electorate. Whereas the GOP has gotten so radical to the point where they almost feel the federal government should be abolished, I wonder if that dampens enthusiasm for participating in early voting?

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:45 (eight years ago)

also xpost to maura's point, i def noticed lefties on my FB feed parrotting old rush/newt era clinton conspiracy jive

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:46 (eight years ago)

"drown it in the bathtub"

xpost

maura, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:46 (eight years ago)

when you listen to sports talk radio and hear the people that call in, it's a very sophisticated, nuanced, and informed opinion about football or whatever, statistics and all that

this is not true at all in my experience of sports talk radio (maybe it's just texas sports talk radio that's stupid but i doubt it).

ryan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:51 (eight years ago)

maura otm -- i would add that misogyny is part of it, tribal loyalties during election season is part of it too. i'm not remotely equating the two in terms of the vileness, but there are left-leaning people, including iirc people in this thread, who seem to genuinely believe that there is a tape of a trump orgy in putin's possession, which explains this or that or whatever. the likelihood of this is obviously exceedingly small, probably close to zero. but it flatters previously held beliefs (that trump is a putin puppet) and favors their preferred candidate, so critical faculties seem to go out the window. i realize this is a bit of a strawman and not all clinton supporters are peddling this nonsense, but bernie supporters were similarly strawmanned throughout the summer. election season sucks

k3vin k., Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

Wait -- why is flappy bird watching Bill Maher

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

are you talking about men who are freaked out by women or people who hate hilary

cause those are different things

http://www.vox.com/2016/11/1/13480416/trump-supporters-sexism

¶ (DJP), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

i hate to be the freudian in the room but i dont think it's really a question of intelligence but more that people are not capable of making rational decisions (haven't studies show it's more or less impossible to make decisions about emotions?) and a mass media environment desperate to engender any kind of response in its audience to engage attention is more or less creating a populace that walks around in a constant state of alarm. the paradox of modern society is that our day to day lives have never been more secure (in the aggregate, of course) but that our awareness of possible systemic and possibly catastrophic failure has never been higher--this creates an empty canvas for all kinds of projections (provided by the ideological doomsayer of your choice, of course).

ryan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

i meant without emotions, above.

ryan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

Here's the original source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/10/23/how-sexism-drives-support-for-donald-trump/

¶ (DJP), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:56 (eight years ago)

Hmm, so what's up with this update?

https://twitter.com/LisaBloom/status/793880513018785792

Website and link slow, maybe down, maybe hammered?

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:58 (eight years ago)

(Re: rape trial)

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:58 (eight years ago)

when you listen to sports talk radio and hear the people that call in, it's a very sophisticated, nuanced, and informed opinion about football or whatever, statistics and all that

chomsky not listening to a lot of philly sports radio (but i think his pt is decent)

Mordy, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 19:59 (eight years ago)

Maybe it's bogged down, its been like that for 30 minutes or so (when I tried at the time)

xp

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

maura otm -- i would add that misogyny is part of it, tribal loyalties during election season is part of it too. i'm not remotely equating the two in terms of the vileness, but there are left-leaning people, including iirc people in this thread, who seem to genuinely believe that there is a tape of a trump orgy in putin's possession, which explains this or that or whatever. the likelihood of this is obviously exceedingly small, probably close to zero. but it flatters previously held beliefs (that trump is a putin puppet) and favors their preferred candidate, so critical faculties seem to go out the window. i realize this is a bit of a strawman and not all clinton supporters are peddling this nonsense, but bernie supporters were similarly strawmanned throughout the summer. election season sucks

― k3vin k., Wednesday, November 2, 2016 3:54 PM (three minutes ago)

and, i should add for the sake of clarity, some bernie supporters were guilty of uncritically parroting the often right wing radio-derived lines of attack on clinton. everyone does it. obviously there are degrees, and we can probably agree that trump supporters are worse in this regard

k3vin k., Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

when you listen to sports talk radio and hear the people that call in, it's a very sophisticated, nuanced, and informed opinion about football or whatever, statistics and all that

chomsky not listening to a lot of philly sports radio (but i think his pt is decent)

― Mordy, Wednesday, November 2, 2016 3:59 PM (thirty-nine seconds ago)

philly fans trust the process man

k3vin k., Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:01 (eight years ago)

who seem to genuinely believe that there is a tape of a trump orgy in putin's possession, which explains this or that or whatever

i think the trump orgy tape is more wishful thinking than any kind of expectation that it is real

Mordy, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:01 (eight years ago)

Hmm, so what's up with this update?

Noted above via Daily Beast link:

The woman suing Donald Trump for alleged child rape will speak publicly on Wednesday afternoon, her lawyer announced. The woman accuses Trump of raping her at a 1994 sex party when she was 13 years old. The party was allegedly at the home of Jeffrey Epstein, a sex offender who has pleaded guilty to soliciting sex from underage girls. The woman accuses Trump of raping her and violently striking her when she resisted. However, the woman has not previously come forward publicly, and previous communications with her legal team have been riddled with inconsistencies.
The woman will be making a public appearance with a new lawyer, Lisa Bloom, her law firm announced in a statement. (Bloom is the daughter of Gloria Allred, the high-powered feminist lawyer representing several of Trump’s sexual-harassment accusers.) They will make their appearance at 3 p.m. PT at the firm’s Los Angeles office. “More than four months ago a woman using the pseudonym 'Jane Doe' sued Donald Trump for a series of sexual assaults that she alleges occurred at parties in New York in 1994," the firm wrote on Wednesday. "Jane Doe was just thirteen years old at the time. Her operative amended federal court complaint is available here. The mainstream media has failed to cover the story... Jane Doe will break her silence today and speak out about her allegations.”

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:01 (eight years ago)

This does, in essence, force Trump into a particular corner. The accusation was long known, but with the trial date set later in the month, there will be bluster or worse, but the question will keep coming back to "So why is the trial happening?"

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:04 (eight years ago)

Part of the problem with covering the story is that the allegations are no more or less credible than identical ones made against Bill Clinton, Prince Andrew and Alan Dershowitz and the latter has already settled a libel action against two lawyers who named him in a similar suite.

Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:04 (eight years ago)

Timing wise, 3pm pacific puts it at prime news time back east. If she has any proof (can an NDA constitute proof?), this could be dramatic.

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:06 (eight years ago)

Media seems to not really care, even though the accusation is on a much more serious level than past ones... so is it just saturation or what? Curious whether it'll finally be reported on after she speaks this evening.

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:06 (eight years ago)

Hudson covers the 3rd Party debate airing on PBS

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:07 (eight years ago)

the media doesn't want to report the story because doing so would send the sexism into overdrive. the claims haven't been closely questioned- presumably that will happen at the trial- and you bring it to the public's attention things will get incredibly, brutally vicious.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:09 (eight years ago)

Actually, xposting to myself, can a 13-year old even sign an NDA?

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:10 (eight years ago)

are you talking about men who are freaked out by women or people who hate hilary
cause those are different things

more accurately SOMETIMES those are different things but it's a venn diagram with enough overlap that you might command+

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:11 (eight years ago)

is it just saturation or what?

I think editors are scared to death of touching this during the campaign, largely because the charges are so serious, while as yet unproven. Even mentioning the existence of these charges during the campaign risks grave harm to both your outlet's reputation for fairness and its future revenue. Much safer to wait until Trump loses the election or, even safer, until a verdict is announced.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:14 (eight years ago)

honestly i feel like nothing will stick to trump unless it's on video or audiotape
it's like people just accept it or don't give a shit, it's fucking pathetic

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:16 (eight years ago)

Wait -- why is flappy bird watching Bill Maher

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, November 2, 2016 3:54 PM (twenty-one minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

he's good in small doses! i usually just watch the overtime segment on youtube after the show's over bc i don't have cable. i appreciate that he brings on people of every political persuasion and no matter how heated or stupid it gets, it's very respectful and totally the opposite of the condescension dripping from MSNBC and NPR

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:19 (eight years ago)

I guess the website had crashed, but here is the amended complaint:

https://www.scribd.com/document/326057027/Amended-Complaint-Filed-9-30-2016#from_embed?platform=hootsuite

FWIW, this is what Bloom posted by way of explanation for why this has not been covered:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/07/27/ex-wife-donald-trump-made-feel-violated-during-sex.html

Trump’s lawyer then changed tactics, lobbing insults and threatening a lawsuit if a story was published.
“I will make sure that you and I meet one day while we’re in the courthouse. And I will take you for every penny you still don’t have. And I will come after your Daily Beast and everybody else that you possibly know,” Cohen said. “So I’m warning you, tread very fucking lightly, because what I’m going to do to you is going to be fucking disgusting. You understand me?”

“You write a story that has Mr. Trump’s name in it, with the word ‘rape,’ and I’m going to mess your life up… for as long as you’re on this frickin’ planet… you’re going to have judgments against you, so much money, you’ll never know how to get out from underneath it,” he added.

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:20 (eight years ago)

i'm not trying to "not all men" this discussion, but i guess it looks that way. i just think the number of people who support trump is still pretty fucking small. if you look at favorability ratings, 51% think she's presidential compared to 32% with Trump. his unfavorability of both him as a person and his candidacy are low, too.

I also concede that a lot of the reasons that Hillary's ratings are so low is because she's been battered in the press for 20++ years by a lot of bullshit and I also get that a lot of that has to do with institutional sexism.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/196952/clinton-holds-clear-edge-having-presidential-qualities.aspx?g_source=CANDIDATE_IMAGES&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

a (waterface), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:20 (eight years ago)

like he had Kellyanne Conway on about a month ago - apparently she's been going on his show for 20 years - and he opened with a very sincere thanks for coming on 'despite supporting pure evil.' that kind of stuff is moving to me.

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:21 (eight years ago)

xxp

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:21 (eight years ago)

So if a tape does come out, that will certainly be reported at that point...

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:21 (eight years ago)

xposts

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:21 (eight years ago)

no tape is coming out

marcos, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:27 (eight years ago)

oppo dump not happening either at this point

marcos, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:27 (eight years ago)

i still lol though at whoever said the phrase "opportunity dump" itt

marcos, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:27 (eight years ago)

i don't know, i think we should keep posting about it every few hours in case it does, what do you say?

k3vin k., Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:28 (eight years ago)

So if a tape does come out, that will certainly be reported at that point...

An actual sex tape of Trump raping a child would have to be released by some fringe media source, after which all the establishment media could freely report its existence and describe its contents in suitably antiseptic terms.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:29 (eight years ago)

kevin i post itt like a few times a week at most i haven't really been obsessing about it

marcos, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:30 (eight years ago)

rick wilson is cucking us all

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:31 (eight years ago)

marcos, opportunity dump came from my phone's auto-correct, and I corrected it in the immediate next post.

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:32 (eight years ago)

haha ok

marcos, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:32 (eight years ago)

kevin i post itt like a few times a week at most i haven't really been obsessing about it

― marcos, Wednesday, November 2, 2016 4:30 PM (one minute ago

i was agreeing with you!

k3vin k., Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:32 (eight years ago)

I'VE BEEN OBSESSION ABOUT ALL YOUR MOMS

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:33 (eight years ago)

ok lol sorry

marcos, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:33 (eight years ago)

I would much rather wring my hands over a potential Trump-killing revelation than obsess about the possibility that Trump, however unlikely, could get elected. Pick your poison, right?

Anyway, Rick Wilson currently quiet, I saw this in that Liz Mair feed, which I only checked because *she* had been so quiet.

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:34 (eight years ago)

Of course, way back when (last week? last year? what feels like last decade?) Mair implied the bad Trump stories had not yet come out, but this particular case has been out there since summer ...

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:35 (eight years ago)

Per my note above -- Wilson has already said whatever he's talking about is not this story.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:36 (eight years ago)

Anyway, Rick Wilson currently quiet, I saw this in that Liz Mair feed, which I only checked because *she* had been so quiet.

― Josh in Chicago

maybe he's taking time away from trolling twitter to actually work on mcmullin's campaign

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:37 (eight years ago)

no idea what Wilson might be on about but his updates about the upcoming bombshell always feel like when someone says they're almost finished with a work project but haven't even started it yet.

nomar, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:37 (eight years ago)

Wilson seems to post in short bursts, FWIW. Don't get the sense he's hanging around all day.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:38 (eight years ago)

HAVE FAITH GUYS it IS coming

frogbs, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:38 (eight years ago)

yea and it reminded me of all the loonies talking about the next wikileaks dump being even more damaging than the (mostly meaningless) prior ones

marcos, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:38 (eight years ago)

xp nomar

marcos, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:39 (eight years ago)

The dump is always greener on the other side.

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:39 (eight years ago)

no idea what Wilson might be on about but his updates about the upcoming bombshell always feel like when someone says they're almost finished with a work project but haven't even started it yet.

leave me out of this

jason waterfalls (gbx), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:46 (eight years ago)

This whole election has been like one of those horror movies where the victim is trapped in some cave or basement or torture chamber and finally finds a way out and just when they're about to escape the bad guy pops up and is all, ha ha, I've been watching you the whole time, the horror has not even begun yet!

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:48 (eight years ago)

Well no, most of this election (post nominations) has been Hillary Clinton cleaning Donald Trump's clock.

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 20:53 (eight years ago)

the real horror is the american electorate amirite

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 21:02 (eight years ago)

Coyotes have really expanded their range

flappy bird, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 21:06 (eight years ago)

Well no, most of this election (post nominations) has been Hillary Clinton cleaning Donald Trump's clock.

Do I have to tell you what I misread that as? I think not.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 21:43 (eight years ago)

Yeah that Donald Duck, lemme tell ya.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 21:47 (eight years ago)

Been outta the loop today - this the oppo bomb drop yet or nah

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 21:53 (eight years ago)

Who knows?

More noteworthy, symbolically -- Jeff Flake is considering writing in McMullin, highest profile GOP official so far to indicate that:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/republican-sen-jeff-flake-write-evan-mcmullin/story?id=43255597

And adds, in a useful reminder:

Despite polls showing tightening margins between Clinton and Trump in many battleground states, Flake said he was skeptical that the outcome of the race, which he said Trump will be "very unlikely" to win, will be close.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 21:57 (eight years ago)

ugh shoulda never been this close.

otoh, maybe it will embolden Trump to try and run in 2020 which would surely cause more GOP panic than even this time around.

acerbic (sic)s (will), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:01 (eight years ago)

Well no, most of this election (post nominations) has been Hillary Clinton cleaning Donald Trump's clock.

I think she will win, but I also beg to differ. By any standard she should be epically ahead, but she's not. Is a 2-0 soccer win a trouncing? No, but it's enough.

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:01 (eight years ago)

This still counts as my favorite moment from the entire sorry mess this election has given us:

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--r8FGceas--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/zmpzlbznqej5i6cflyhu.gif

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:13 (eight years ago)

they should all just write in Reagan..

I guess the only reason Kasich voted for McCain is because he's alive and not a Bush?

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:14 (eight years ago)

I'd already forgotten about Cruz announcing Fiorina as his running mate

soref, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:16 (eight years ago)

News conference cancelled?

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:18 (eight years ago)

I didn't even bother checking. Half wondered if there'd be some sort of gag order or whatever.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:19 (eight years ago)

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/politics/black-turnout-falls-in-early-voting-boding-ill-for-hillary-clinton.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

not convinced this means much, given that hispanic turnout is up and clinton does better with whites than obama did

k3vin k., Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:20 (eight years ago)

xpost https://www.facebook.com/HuffPostPolitics/videos/10154466103007911/

Donald J. Trump has been accused of forcibly raping a 13-year-old in 1994, and is due in court after the election. Today, his accuser intended to break her silence, but chose not to after receiving numerous threats.

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:20 (eight years ago)

Rare good online comment before the presser got cancelled:

To any Trump supporter about to respond to this: Think about how you would respond if this person was accusing Bill Clinton. Now respond that way to this woman who so bravely has come forward.

Josh in Chicago, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:22 (eight years ago)

Sadly typical and ugly, I should have guessed.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:27 (eight years ago)

as if some of these folks have the capacity for empathy

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:33 (eight years ago)

I could watch that video on a loop forever and never get bored.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:36 (eight years ago)

This existed already, which I didn't realize...

It's hard to listen to.

http://www.justiceforkatie.com/

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:39 (eight years ago)

Well that's putting it really lightly actually.

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:40 (eight years ago)

Wilson's been busy with other things (including the Flake news, of course) but he's just added once more:

As previously noted, I've never pitched the Jane Doe story. NOT one of the items to which I've referred.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:40 (eight years ago)

And again, true. He's said that a number of times in the past.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:41 (eight years ago)

You can probably safely stop letting us know what Rick Wilson says now, Ned.

Andrew Farrell, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:42 (eight years ago)

black turnout "falls" you mean from the years where there was a black candidate?? lmao

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:44 (eight years ago)

the fact that this thread isnt even named after a wilson quote just gets more and more amusing at this stage

the kids are alt right (darraghmac), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:44 (eight years ago)

xxpost -- Very true! If The Great Big Thing happens, that'll be the exception.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:45 (eight years ago)

the fact that this thread isnt even named after a wilson quote just gets more and more amusing at this stage

I keep reading as "I can lead you through the zone," which shows you how long I've been here.

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:46 (eight years ago)

obviously if I could do it all over again I would've named this thread OPPORTUNITY DUMP 2016

Οὖτις, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:46 (eight years ago)

What we value in America is the consti...

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:50 (eight years ago)

pation

Evan, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 22:50 (eight years ago)

The dump is always greener on the other side.

― Josh in Chicago

erma bombeck, right?

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:08 (eight years ago)

my tx absentee ballot arrived (finally) today! it was addressed, incorrectly, to "Weeney" street which is probably why it took forever to show up.

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:13 (eight years ago)

they send all the dem ballots to weeney street

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:19 (eight years ago)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/mississippi-church-burned-vandalized-trump_us_5819ef95e4b01f610e393372

― (•̪●) (carne asada), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 15:09 (eight hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Just wanted to make sure this wasn't missed. Pretty fucked up that a black church can be burned out and "VOTE TRUMP" spraypainted on it and it barely registers. I include myself in that. Like it's somehow normal.

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:30 (eight years ago)

well see it was probably Clinton/ Soros goons trying to make it LOOK like Trump supporters.

that's what i learned on the internet today. and lots of what appear to be human adults seem to be agreeing.

acerbic (sic)s (will), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:32 (eight years ago)

My wife just told me that a $10k-goal fundraiser to help the church rebuild has already gone past $80k.

aaaaaaaauuuuuuuuu (melting robot) (WilliamC), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:36 (eight years ago)

Under North Carolina law any voter in a county can challenge the eligibility of any other county voter up to 25 days before the election. The challenge can include a residency challenge.

this whole thing is amazing to me, particularly since john roberts assured me that racism was over

mookieproof, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:39 (eight years ago)

Reuters with the nonsurprise:

https://twitter.com/ReutersPolitics/status/793951164597497856

BREAKING: Clinton leads Trump by 6 points, same margin as before FBI announced email review - Reuters/Ipsos poll

Ned Raggett, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:48 (eight years ago)

the best thing about the "race is tightening" narrative is how much more crestfallen the trump camp will be when they lose

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:49 (eight years ago)

BREAKING: Nothing's happened

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:52 (eight years ago)

Under North Carolina law any voter in a county can challenge the eligibility of any other county voter up to 25 days before the election. The challenge can include a residency challenge.

this whole thing is amazing to me, particularly since john roberts assured me that racism was over

― mookieproof, Wednesday, November 2, 2016 11:39 PM (sixteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

does the challenge involve pistols at dawn

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:56 (eight years ago)

Hot dog eating I believe.

MatthewK, Wednesday, 2 November 2016 23:58 (eight years ago)

Always Be Breaking.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 3 November 2016 00:17 (eight years ago)

Never forget the Romney campaign claiming it was "competitive" in Pennsylvania the last weekend before the election.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 00:22 (eight years ago)

Just commented on a friend-of-friend's link to that David Duke profile asking why we were giving so much time to that guy and Nuzzi herself responded because, apparently, social networks bring us together and we are a couple links away. It's a weird social network world now.

mh 😏, Thursday, 3 November 2016 01:22 (eight years ago)

Sorry, that was meant to say " Olivia Nuzzi's David Duke profile"

mh 😏, Thursday, 3 November 2016 01:22 (eight years ago)

millennials

mookieproof, Thursday, 3 November 2016 01:28 (eight years ago)

the best thing about the "race is tightening" narrative is how much more crestfallen the trump camp will be when they lose

Actually what I've been seeing among the nu-unskewers is:

1. The polling organizations were always artificially inflating Clinton margins in order to demoralize Trump voters.

2. BUT they don't want to look stupid on 11/9, so it was always assumed that they would artificially, yet gradually, tighten the numbers so that they won't be embarrassed when Trump wins - they can always just claim that it was within the margin of error.

3. BUT BUT BUT if it's a very close Clinton win, like 2 points, it will be assumed that The Rigged System just moved things inside the "margin of fraud." That is, an actual Trump win that was criminally stolen due to the 105% D votes in Philadelphian precincts "in certain areas" - meaning of course the ones with SCARY BLACKITY BLACK PEOPLE.

pumpkin spice was the Spice Girl who died suspiciously (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, 3 November 2016 01:32 (eight years ago)

Some tighteningification is typical not just due to general reversion-to-the-mean stuff but also because a lot of third-party voters tend to desert those no-hopers when Shit Gets Real. Undecideds also tend to get off the fence at this point, yadda yadda.

I think most Trompoids already thought of polls as devious MSM bullshit anyway (unless they like the result), so tightening (if it exists) changes the equation very little.

pumpkin spice was the Spice Girl who died suspiciously (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, 3 November 2016 01:36 (eight years ago)

Waiting For Oppot

lettered and hapful (symsymsym), Thursday, 3 November 2016 03:01 (eight years ago)

Opportunity knocks imo

(•̪●) (carne asada), Thursday, 3 November 2016 04:02 (eight years ago)

Fuck a Trump, Cubs win!

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 3 November 2016 04:49 (eight years ago)

Kris Bryant smiling as he let that throw go tho

ein Sexmonster (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Thursday, 3 November 2016 04:52 (eight years ago)

Anyway, bullshit or scary?

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/304105-report-indictment-likely-in-fbis-clinton-foundation-probe

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 04:54 (eight years ago)

Eh it's BS

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 05:00 (eight years ago)

32 million plus have now early voted; we are over the 2012 EV count in terms of raw numbers. Guessing 40 million at least by Monday, possibly higher and possibly sooner.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 05:09 (eight years ago)

https://www.google.com/amp/www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.amp.html?client=safari

early voting results generally impossible to interpret

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 05:46 (eight years ago)

Fuck a Trump, Cubs win!

― Josh in Chicago

nate silver rip

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Thursday, 3 November 2016 07:58 (eight years ago)

WSJ on divisions between DoJ and FBI on this:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/secret-recordings-fueled-fbi-feud-in-clinton-probe-1478135518

Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 3 November 2016 08:18 (eight years ago)

xxp -- The Elections Project fellow had some subtly tart thoughts on that yesterday and I have to say his are bearing out more and more.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 10:32 (eight years ago)

I...don't think so:

https://twitter.com/igorbobic/status/794167682769686528

Chris Jansing on MSNBC says Trump campaign believes “suburban women relate to Melania"

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 13:45 (eight years ago)

So all the aggregators have Trump leading in NC now?

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Thursday, 3 November 2016 13:52 (eight years ago)

sitting in the waiting room at the mechanic's in nh and holy cow the political ads are hot and heavy, i honestly had no idea

jason waterfalls (gbx), Thursday, 3 November 2016 13:55 (eight years ago)

Anyway, a slew of good posts/RTs from McDonald (aka Elections Project) further clarifying things. Short summary:

NV: per Ralston, who also said as much on Morning Joe today: past patterns are reappearing with increased voter turnout towards the end of the week, and that means what he terms the Clark County (ie, Las Vegas) firewall, currently at 55,000+ for Democratic voters. His take is that if trends continue, this will increase even more over the next two days (early voting in NV ends Friday), and half the projected overall final vote is now in. To quote Ralston, "things are getting baked." He also just did a catch-up morning post with more detail:

The Democrats have a 34,500 voter statewide lead (probably under 34,000 after the rurals are posted). That's 42-37, or about a point under the registration lead. The GOP turnout edge is 1.2 points.

Clark turnout definitely is down by percentage, despite Team Clinton's boasts of record numbers. Those additional 150,000 registered voters since '12 matter. It was 47 percent at this time in 2012; it's 42 percent now.

But raw votes are raw votes. And that 55,500 firewall means a lot, indicating Trump will be down double digits when those first numbers pop up on Tuesday evening. Joe Heck also can't like to see these numbers, especially since everything I have heard indicates he is being crushed in the early vote.

Heck is running to replace Reid as a GOP switch, so a projected loss doesn't affect the Senate balance.

NC: as more early polling places catch up, more Democratic votes start appearing, and in terms of their raw numbers turnout vs. 2012, they are now essentially even where there had been a deficit. That deficit was being erased around 1.5% to 2% each day so should this trend continue, then hey -- so keep an eye out there. (Per other notes, vast increase in unaffiliated voters but current exit polling analysis has them leaning HRC, which on top of the raw vote lead the campaign has always had in the state's EV is further promising.)

OH: McDonald shared a tweet noting that the two big urban counties, Cuyahoga and Franklin, are rapidly approaching their own 2012 EV levels in general, and that they too had a bit of state interference with early voting along the way. To quote McDonald: "Why the Clinton campaign has not given up on Ohio. Finally making move despite terrible start."

He noted no update in Iowa yesterday, and terms FL too close to call, saying "In 2012 Florida Dems had a +2.0 point advantage over Reps, now -0.2 points. +1.8 million more votes, so some Election Day converted to early. Florida has four more days of early voting and pace picking up."

Finally (so far today) he shared a story from Nate Cohn noting that polls in PA, NC and FL had newly registered/'missing' voters breaking much more for Clinton than Trump -- it's the reverse with white voters only, big surprise, but it's not enough -- and himself added, in response to Cohn noting 'high turnout hurts Trump': "This really is nothing new. Dems usually do better the higher the turnout."

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:11 (eight years ago)

Clinton Nov. win probability: random drift 98%, Bayesian 100%

guess at least one person is unshook

frogbs, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:28 (eight years ago)

One other thing about McDonald's EV tweets and reporting -- he tracks all numbers on his site, but pretty exclusively tweets about states of interest -- swing states, close voting results, places where things don't fall into an immediate or obvious pattern, or just things to note and observe. Four states have reported no numbers, including NH and PA (the others are NY and CT). Over the past few days, besides the ones I've mentioned above, and occasionally CO, he's shared results from places like TX and GA...*not* MI, VA or WI. That should be telling enough.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:30 (eight years ago)

thanks for these updates Ned. irrationally my thoughts on who is going to win change based on whatever the last piece of evidence i read suggests.

anecdote alert:

last night i had a post-halloween horror movie party and one of my guests is a friend who served in the IDF for a year and his parents are hardcore Republicans who forbade him (lol) from voting for Hillary. he's a young guy (23) who is in favor of settling the territories and on a whole host of issues definitely falls on the right side of the spectrum. he says he won't be voting on tuesday because Trump is unacceptable.

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:37 (eight years ago)

also i know ppl hate yard sign talk but the streets of my neighborhood are lined w/ clinton signs. my wife says she has seen one trump sign in the neighborhood but i haven't seen it and every day i walk the dog i see a new hillary sign has gone up. whatever else happens i feel secure that she's winning Montgomery County by a lot.

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:38 (eight years ago)

I'm not sure why any reasonable person would think Trump is better for Israel than Clinton

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:40 (eight years ago)

Clinton emails. Trump admitting sexual assault. Clinton emails. Trump charity fraud. Clinton emails. Trump calls for nuclear proliferation. Clinton emails. Trump calls for national stop and frisk. Clinton emails. Trump violates trade embargo with Cuba. Clinton emails. Trump sued over Trump U fraud. Clinton emails. Trump bribes DA. Clinton emails. Trump doesnt pay taxes for 20 years. Clinton emails. Trump employs campaign manager involved in illegal corruption with Russia. Clinton emails. Trump calls for ban of an entire religion from entering US. Clinton emails. Trump lied about support for Iraq War over and over in debate. Clinton emails. Trump in court for rape of a minor. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of Russia's Crimea occupation. Clinton emails. Trump unaware of situation in Syria. Clinton emails. Trump penalized for racist housing discrimination. Clinton emails. Trump files for bankrupcy 6 times. Clinton emails. Trump goes 0-3 in debates by showing scant knowledge of world politics. Clinton emails. Trump slams people for being POWs. Clinton emails. Trump calls mexicans rapists. Clinton emails. Trump questions judge's integrity because of parent's heritage. Clinton emails. Trump deletes emails involved in casino scandal. Clinton emails. Trump commits insurance fraud after florida hurricane. Clinton emails. Trump has dozens of assault victims and witnesses come forward with allegations of abuse. Clinton emails. Trump attacks former Ms America for being overweight. Clinton emails. Trump tweets about sex tapes at 3am. Clinton emails. Trump calls for US citizens to be sent to Gitmo. Clinton emails. Trump calls for more extreme forms of torture to be used. Clinton emails. Trump asks why can't we use our nukes if we have them. Clinton emails. Trump calls for offensive bombing attack on sovereign nations because someone gave the middle finger. Clinton emails. Trump calls to kill women and children of suspected terrorists. Clinton emails. Trump says women should be punished for having abortions. Clinton emails. Trump makes fun of disabled people. Clinton emails. Trump calls for end of freedom of the press. Clinton emails. Trump calls global warming a chinese hoax. Clinton emails. Trump praises Putin and Kim Jong Un's strong leadership. Clinton emails. Trump openly admits to not paying his employees during debate. Clinton emails. Trump calls Obama an illegitimate noncitizen hundreds of times over 7 years. Clinton emails. Trump uses campaign donations to enrich his own businesses. Clinton emails. Trump says Ted Cruz involved in JFK assassination unironically citing National Enquirer. Clinton emails. Trump says laziness is an inherent trait in black people. Clinton emails.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:41 (eight years ago)

http://katerawlings.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/opportunity-2.jpg

(•̪●) (carne asada), Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:41 (eight years ago)

if you're number one issue is settling the WB i can understand why you might prefer Trump -- bc he will either support Israel in annexing the territories or he will be so distracted he won't get in the way. but if your number one issue is pro-settlement then i don't think we can consider you reasonable.

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:43 (eight years ago)

your*

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:43 (eight years ago)

I bet Trump can't even find Israel on a map.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:44 (eight years ago)

I bet Trump can't even find a map

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:45 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwSfkOIWIAAphQ_.jpg:large

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:47 (eight years ago)

also i know ppl hate yard sign talk but the streets of my neighborhood are lined w/ clinton signs. my wife says she has seen one trump sign in the neighborhood but i haven't seen it and every day i walk the dog i see a new hillary sign has gone up. whatever else happens i feel secure that she's winning Montgomery County by a lot.

― Mordy, Thursday, November 3, 2016 10:38 AM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

North Jersey I feel like I notice more Trump signage myself, but this morning I did see a brand new "Idiots for Trump" & "Make America Sane Again" signs right on the exit ramp by work. Feel like the Trump fans have always been louder in this regard.

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:48 (eight years ago)

if you're number one issue is settling the WB i can understand why you might prefer Trump

Missed the context at first and was like

http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/90scartoons/images/c/ca/The_WB_Frog_Logo.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140728210556

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:50 (eight years ago)

Kim Jong Un is horrific

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:55 (eight years ago)

thanks for these updates Ned. irrationally my thoughts on who is going to win change based on whatever the last piece of evidence i read suggests.

You're welcome -- what you need to keep in mind as something helpful is just this: polls are polls, samples, and there can be little or heavy bias or focus, or missing numbers. (Ralston's immediate trashing of the CNN NV poll yesterday was due to such problems on the poll's part.) Votes are the full complement of actual voters and are banked, and while we won't know who actually voted what until the election over, as McDonald has said, one can readily infer, and it's also generally notable that whatever third-party options might exist, we already have plenty of signs -- hardly huge numbers but still notable -- of GOP voters considering or openly voting Clinton over Trump -- NOT the reverse. When you add in the fact -- again using Ralston as an example, but he's a perfect one, a long time expert in a state and on a state and what it shows -- that observable patterns and reports are generally as expected, then your confidence in them can rapidly increase.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 14:55 (eight years ago)

STUPID QUESTION: How do pols/media know for whom the early voters have voted?

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:02 (eight years ago)

yeah the analogy I like to use is "watch the outfielder" - in baseball you can generally judge a fly ball by seeing how the outfielder reacts rather than how it looked off the bat. in this case I think watching where the Clinton campaign is targeting and what states they seem to think they've got in the bag is probably a better predictor than the polls we're getting now, since we know their internals are generally more robust

frogbs, Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:07 (eight years ago)

I think they don't - only the party affiliation of the voters?

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:19 (eight years ago)

STUPID QUESTION: How do pols/media know for whom the early voters have voted?

― Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Thursday, November 3, 2016 11:02 AM (thirteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it's actually an excellent question -- they don't! what they do have, in the states that provide this data, are the votes based on party affiliation. from there, extrapolations are made based on peripheral polling data (such as statewide polls, or polls looking at what % of dems are voting hillary vs what % of GOP are backing trump), but as these data are based on a different sample than the people who actually cast the early ballots, the projections are imprecise and have a significant degree of uncertainty. add to the fact that there are more independent/undecided voters than in recent years, and most of the early voting returns could be read as "not bad" for HRC, but it's a mistake to view them as assuringly, almost certainly good

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:25 (eight years ago)

"Independent" usually code for "I'm a republican who likes to think of myself as an independent" iirc

Dan I., Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:29 (eight years ago)

http://www.theonion.com/article/anthony-weiner-sends-apology-sext-entire-clinton-c-54560

nomar, Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:31 (eight years ago)

xp

My wife's a registered Independent who votes Dem consistently in the general election. I think it's stupid, but just wanted to point out that there are people who don't want to be affiliated with either of the two main political parties.

how's life, Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:34 (eight years ago)

I think it's stupid, but

I think it's TERRIFYINGLY INSANE that USAians are apparently expected to sign a publicly available (?) pledge of voting allegiance to one half of a rigid two-party system

sad, hombres (sic), Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:42 (eight years ago)

They aren't. Some people register, some don't.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:44 (eight years ago)

yeah i'm indie who votes consistent Dem. iirc i did it so I could vote in GOP or Dem primaries in TN. i *think* if you are affiliated you can only vote in your party's primary there.

acerbic (sic)s (will), Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:45 (eight years ago)

Yeah, I think you only have to register with a party to vote in a primary, but I'm not even sure that holds true in every state. Someone smarter than me can say for sure.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:46 (eight years ago)

some states have open primaries, some have closed

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:48 (eight years ago)

See, here in MD, you have to vote with your party affiliation in the primaries, which means that Mrs. Life missed out on her chance to make a statement by casting a vote for Bernie, even though he was already toast by the time our primary rolled around anyway.

how's life, Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:48 (eight years ago)

Thanks for the answers dudes!

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:49 (eight years ago)

it's actually an excellent question -- they don't! what they do have, in the states that provide this data, are the votes based on party affiliation. from there, extrapolations are made based on peripheral polling data (such as statewide polls, or polls looking at what % of dems are voting hillary vs what % of GOP are backing trump), but as these data are based on a different sample than the people who actually cast the early ballots, the projections are imprecise and have a significant degree of uncertainty. add to the fact that there are more independent/undecided voters than in recent years, and most of the early voting returns could be read as "not bad" for HRC, but it's a mistake to view them as assuringly, almost certainly good

― k3vin k., Thursday, November 3, 2016 11:25 AM (twenty-three minutes ago)

i should also add that simply reporting the number of early votes, even in comparison to previous years, is relatively meaningless because early voters tend to differ systematically from election-day voters and these differences are baked into the projection systems. so far, it seems like the general reaction to the early voting numbers are that they are in line with expectations rather than helping or hurting one candidate or another relative to expectations

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 15:52 (eight years ago)

Funny that this is still has not shifted:

http://election.princeton.edu/

Where by contrast 538 continues its dismal shift, showing most of its light blue states now light red.

Obviously comparing the two has been discussed many many times before but it seems the discrepancy between narratives is getting more significant...

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:02 (eight years ago)

it's actually an excellent question -- they don't! what they do have, in the states that provide this data, are the votes based on party affiliation. from there, extrapolations are made based on peripheral polling data (such as statewide polls, or polls looking at what % of dems are voting hillary vs what % of GOP are backing trump), but as these data are based on a different sample than the people who actually cast the early ballots, the projections are imprecise and have a significant degree of uncertainty. add to the fact that there are more independent/undecided voters than in recent years, and most of the early voting returns could be read as "not bad" for HRC, but it's a mistake to view them as assuringly, almost certainly good

All this is correct, which is why looking for secondary indicators is key. Ralston's take for NV is that Trump would need a huge swing in independent voters and he has neither seen nor heard any info confirming that, essentially laughing it off. In NC, Cohn noted polling that specifically was exit polling directly at unaffiliated early voters, and again noted that it leaned Clinton, which is another good sign on top of a notable raw vote total lead for registered Democratic voters. McDonald himself rarely/never says 'in the bag,' but observes trends that have to break one way or another for a candidate to clearly succeed. Thus, he hasn't written off Trump in NV yet but says he has to do a lot better.

i should also add that simply reporting the number of early votes, even in comparison to previous years, is relatively meaningless because early voters tend to differ systematically from election-day voters and these differences are baked into the projection systems. so far, it seems like the general reaction to the early voting numbers are that they are in line with expectations rather than helping or hurting one candidate or another relative to expectations

And this is also correct -- and if anything, is underscoring that things may be much less remarkable on the day than it appears.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:02 (eight years ago)

His love of musical theater still burning bright.

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--Ihn39_6k--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/pqyx42dpf36b5ae0fz3r.png

how's life, Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:09 (eight years ago)

McDonald just posted a CO update -- he refers to recent changes in CO electoral law (this story is a useful primer) and says:

Reps finally make a move with 9,006 more returns y'day. Dem lead now +1.0, was +1.9 y'day. If 2014 is a guide (first election under new law)
- Reps need about +7 points to be competitive
- Dems going to pick up this weekend

Per kevin k.'s point, 2014 isn't 2016 of course, so one can question that -- and note, wisely, that McDonald says 'if.'

He also shared a new 538 story about how the majority of voters haven't changed their minds all year and are exhausted by the whole damn process (linking tweet here) and added: "Why record early vote numbers in many states: people have made up their minds & are voting." I completely, utterly agree with this, full stop. I can't imagine anyone thinking otherwise. It's not that there WON'T be an increase in voters, but more and more people are being factored in even earlier than before.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:09 (eight years ago)

Ted Cruz to daughter: "Hug me, that's all I ask of you"

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:11 (eight years ago)

Speaking of, 538 charts showing it likely all comes down to NH, and NH in the news for being a neck and neck race... how true is any of this outside of the 538 narrative?

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:12 (eight years ago)

Meantime, notable news given all the Trump camp mumurings re poll-watching in Pennsylvania:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/politics/pennsylvania-poll-watchers-trump/index.html

A federal judge has rejected a bid from the Republican Party of Pennsylvania to block part of a state law that allows poll watchers to serve only within the county where they are registered to vote.

"The legislature's decision to allow county election officials to credential only poll watchers from their own county is rationally related to the state's interest in maintaining its county-run election system," wrote Judge Gerald J. Pappert of the US District Court for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania.

In the ruling Pappert cautioned, "Allowing poll watchers to work in any county in the Commonwealth could result in certain counties being inundated with prospective poll watchers seeking credentials."

...

Pappert also criticized the party for waiting until 18 days before the election to bring the case.

"There is good reason to avoid last-minute intervention in a state's election process," he ruled, adding, "any intervention at this point risks practical concerns including disruption, confusion or other unforeseen deleterious effects."

He scolded GOP lawyers and wrote, "there was no need for this judicial fire drill and Plaintiffs offer no reasonable explanation of justification for the harried process they created."

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:14 (eight years ago)

In Va. we don't register by party but in primary elections you have to specify which ballot you want.

Theoretically I might like the ability to mess with the GOPrimary at will, but standing in a school gym with my neighbors all around, I am not sure I could bring myself to say the word "Republican' out loud.

I don't quite understand why state elections officials would bother to count up the party registration (or previous voting record) of each early voting ballot, and report that. Why not just open them and count who the people voted for?

pumpkin spice was the Spice Girl who died suspiciously (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:21 (eight years ago)

https://projects.propublica.org/electionland/florida/west-palm-beach-trump-supporters-use-bullhorns/

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:21 (eight years ago)

Missed the context at first and was like
http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/90scartoons/images/c/ca/The_WB_Frog_Logo.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20140728210556

This is like whenever I see Mordy's MENA thread and I think

https://nohits.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/javieramenamena.jpg

Wozniak on Kimye's Baby (jaymc), Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:36 (eight years ago)

Christopher Moore, who voted at this location on that day, said the Trump supporters were “behaving like soccer hooligans.”

lol

how's life, Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:37 (eight years ago)

A dustbin in Shaftesbury.

Wes Brodicus, Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:52 (eight years ago)

Why not just open them and count who the people voted for?

Early release of voting tabulations could influence voting behavior. So, not gonna happen.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:53 (eight years ago)

http://www.vox.com/2016/11/3/13147678/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-trump-forecast

this looks like a pretty good explainer of why 538's model is more cautious than most. key bit that i'm delighted they included:

We’ll never really know whether a particular forecast was correct or incorrect, since they’re all probabilistic, and they all suggest a Clinton win is the most likely outcome

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 16:58 (eight years ago)

calling the states will probably determine who was most accurate

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:00 (eight years ago)

Hillary Clinton is currently polling at about 45 percent nationally among likely voters, and Donald Trump is somewhere in the range of 41 to 43 percent.

But that leaves another 12 to 14 percent of likely voters who are either undecided or are currently backing third-party candidates — which is unusually high, especially this late in the game. For comparison, the undecided/third-party number at the end of the race in 2012 was just 3 to 5 percent.

Where will those undecided and third-party voters end on Election Day? Will they swing disproportionately toward a major party candidate late? Will the third-party backers stick to their guns? Will these people even bother to show up at the polls?

From Silver’s perspective, we shouldn’t be too confident that we know what they’ll end up doing. “The number of undecided and third-party voters has a strong historical correlation with both polling volatility and polling error,” he wrote in September.

This is one reason his model gets relatively more bullish on Trump when the polls tighten — if Clinton has a 2-point lead but there are so many undecided or third-party voters left, it’s easy to imagine how her lead could be overcome, depending on how those voters break. The Upshot’s model takes these factors into account too, but appears to weight them less heavily, and other models don’t account for the unusually high undecideds at all

if this is true, which would really shock me (how could you not account for undecided voters...at all?), then this at least partially explains why PEC, for example, has clinton at >99% to win, and why that number is every bit as absurd as it looks

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:00 (eight years ago)

mordy otm

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:01 (eight years ago)

Speaking of, 538 charts showing it likely all comes down to NH, and NH in the news for being a neck and neck race... how true is any of this outside of the 538 narrative?

― Evan, Thursday, November 3, 2016 12:12 PM (forty-four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Can someone comment on this, though?

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:01 (eight years ago)

this election is the worst fucking thing that ever happened, every day just the horror of time stretching out in front of me all these stories and polls and projections it's so horrifying

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:07 (eight years ago)

i'm not sure what you mean by it "all coming down to NH". NH has 4 electoral votes, so unless the election is very very close, it's not going to break it for one candidate or another. the average power of an individual vote is higher in NH than in any other state in the country because of 1) its toss-up nature combined with 2) the fact that small states get a disproportionate share of EVs

xp

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:07 (eight years ago)

this election is the worst fucking thing that ever happened, every day just the horror of time stretching out in front of me all these stories and polls and projections it's so horrifying

― blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, November 3, 2016 1:07 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yea this sucks, i can't wait for this shit to be over with

marcos, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:09 (eight years ago)

I have an idea.

Everyone go to lunch, then go to the baseball thread.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:14 (eight years ago)

it's also just not possible for trump to win without nh in particular due to the math, assuming clinton takes all the swing states where she's been consistently ahead

xps

iatee, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:14 (eight years ago)

basically on election night if she wins Virginia and NH the election is over

iatee, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:15 (eight years ago)

The main reason that we’re seeing our Senate odds increase is the race in Pennsylvania, where Katie McGinty now has an 89 percent chance of winning, based on a polling average of 45-41. Her race with Pat Toomey has been very back-and-forth all year, but she’s led the last eight polls; she hasn’t trailed since an Emerson poll from mid-October, and a Franklin & Marshall poll from a few days ago giving her a 12-point lead is the coup de grâce.

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:17 (eight years ago)

Thanks- the election hinging on NH is dependent on the exact projection they have for the swing states, currently. So it's probably a perfect storm of too many assumptions.

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:20 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794225424498688001

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:20 (eight years ago)

not like trump was going to win NY but still v interesting (at least to me) xp

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:20 (eight years ago)

Good deep dive from Ralston there.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:22 (eight years ago)

this election is the worst fucking thing that ever happened, every day just the horror of time stretching out in front of me all these stories and polls and projections it's so horrifying

― blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, November 3, 2016 1:07 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yea this sucks, i can't wait for this shit to be over with

― marcos, Thursday, November 3, 2016 1:09 PM (ten minutes ago)

it really is just too much and it's causing me all kinds of anxiety

(•̪●) (carne asada), Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

Holy fucking shit at other polls not factoring in the undecideds - I'd assumed they were offsetting them with "I hear his GOTV is weak and judge that to be worth *waves wand* 3.75 points".

Andrew Farrell, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:33 (eight years ago)

Me too. And I'm not even American. But then having sat through two all-night accumulations of horror (UK GE '15, EU Ref '16) recently because the polls were off, I guess I'm panicking more than I did in '08 or '12. Romney was actually a sliver ahead in nearly half of all tracking polls released during the first half of October 2012, but PEC just kept saying "forget the popular vote, Obama is picking up 320-340EV, look at the state numbers" and I was convinced and they were right.

I refresh The Upshot three times a day at the moment. Ugh.

Michael Jones, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:35 (eight years ago)

Early vote now at 34 million. Wondering if we'll hit 36 million tonight? (If so and pace continues, we'd hit 40 million by tomorrow night; indications are that pace does always pick up in this stretch.)

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:38 (eight years ago)

Also a quick Texas note:

TX #earlyvote update 11/2: 3,655,123 voted, +36.4% of 2012. Picked up pace a little y'day relative to 2012. Was +32.2% 2 days ago

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:43 (eight years ago)

it really is just too much and it's causing me all kinds of anxiety

― (•̪●) (carne asada), Thursday, November 3, 2016 1:24 PM (eighteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I've never had such a steady sense of unease and dread every day

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:44 (eight years ago)

between this and the cubs postseason i'm pretty sure i've aged ten years the past two weeks

nomar, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:48 (eight years ago)

BTW, re undecideds (and unaffiliateds for that matter) -- as Alfred and I noted in a discussion on FB, the tea leaf reading you can do with the campaigns lies in their actions, and how that reflects their calculations and their own internal polling. It wouldn't be impossible but I have to think it would be VERY strange if HRC's crew didn't take undecideds into account, especially where it counts, in terms of attempting to sway votes or factor in what they need to be sure on their end. It's not that internal polling and approaches can be infallible, but it's also clear who is working with data and who isn't (there was a background comment earlier in the week from the Trump campaign talking about ignoring data in favor of hunches, which kinda tells you what you need to know).

Separately, they've announced both the Clintons and the Obamas will wrap up the campaign with a massive joint appearance in Philadelphia -- which makes total sense beyond simply DC convenience: there's next to no early voting there at all, so why not goose it up for the finale right in the city and location that has weighted the state for HRC the whole time?

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:49 (eight years ago)

I've never had such a steady sense of unease and dread every day

― Evan

i've literally been suicidally depressed off and on for the last several months. (not a cry for help, i have a support network.)

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:51 (eight years ago)

And notable news out of Florida:

https://twitter.com/jeremybird/status/794233700279955456

FL: Yesterday was largest turnout of black voters so far (55k);
585K AA voters have cast votes so far, up 28% compared to same point in '12

There were rumblings that HRC's outreach to black voters in Florida was weak, but if this is starting to happen and increase, and sure looks like it, keep an eye out.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:53 (eight years ago)

I stopped worrying about the outcome of the presidential race back in October, after:

  • I read that 93% of US voters had seen or heard the Access Hollywood material in the two days following its release, then
  • during the debate Trump denied ever doing anything except talk (in front of more than 60 million viewers), then
  • the women he'd assaulted started coming out publically in large numbers.
No campaign is going to survive that kind of pummeling, even if it suddenly develops a decent GOTV organization out of thin air.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:55 (eight years ago)

My anxiety is not so much that Hillary won't be elected - I'm about as sure as I can be that she will - but that the emails shitshow/calls for impeachment will begin the very next day, and I'm going to looking at the punchable faces of Trey Gowdy and Tom Cotton for the foreseeable future.

Their all losers and I like associating with loser (Dan Peterson), Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:56 (eight years ago)

Aimless and Dan otm

Οὖτις, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:57 (eight years ago)

but if Dems keep the Senate impeachment is going to go nowhere

Οὖτις, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:57 (eight years ago)

You take what you can get. That shit show is better than the other one.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:58 (eight years ago)

iirc (and I may not bc I was only 14yo) impeachment of BC hurt the Republicans

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 17:59 (eight years ago)

surpised honestly that we made it through 8 years of obama without the gop initiating impeachment proceedings

marcos, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:01 (eight years ago)

I think "That shit show is better than the other one" is going to be my new mantra.

Their all losers and I like associating with loser (Dan Peterson), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:02 (eight years ago)

There were rumblings that HRC's outreach to black voters in Florida was weak, but if this is starting to happen and increase, and sure looks like it, keep an eye out.

― Ned Raggett

god, politico ran this whole "story" on florida outreach to black voters which was sourced entirely by an interview with some poor lower-level democratic functionary in florida who was clearly losing her shit. if they ran it under the headline "MORE PEOPLE LOSING THEIR SHIT", i could respect that, but they pretended it was actual news.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:02 (eight years ago)

xxpost Issa muttered things a few times but his charges were laughed off and it was kept to the fringe.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:02 (eight years ago)

well we've just had eight years of a super chill and regular dude president who was attacked the entire time for being a destroyer of worlds and also a criminal and let's face it, strictly bc he's a democrat and also because he's not white, perhaps listed in reverse order of importance to the GOP there. and i guess maybe bc in a sign of true terrorist leanings he listens to Sting and Courtney Barnett while he's exercising. i'm not thinking the next 4-8 years will be a cesspool any worse than this one, unless trump wins, then it will be.

nomar, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:03 (eight years ago)

I'm surprised we made it through 8 year w out Obama getting murdered tbh

xp

Οὖτις, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:03 (eight years ago)

surpised honestly that we made it through 8 years of obama without the gop initiating impeachment proceedings

a testament to his fundamental decency + honesty imho

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:04 (eight years ago)

i think it's probably safe to say that Obama may have fewer skeletons in his closet than any president ever has tbh, bc if he had any you know they'd have found them. god knows they were trying for eight years nonstop i'm sure.

nomar, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:05 (eight years ago)

re: New Hampshire on 538 - if I understand right, Evan is looking at the "snake" diagram (scrolling down on their forecast toys page) which indeed shows NH as the last blue state, and the one that takes Clinton over the line. In that snake diagram, NH is a must-win for Clinton. However, that's because they've recently assigned Nevada, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, AND Iowa to Trump's column in varying shades of light pink - - - something I don't think anybody else is doing. Any single one of those, flipped back to Clinton, renders NH irrelevant. Trump has to win them all. That's why, back up on the main map, a whole bunch of states have the black "tipping point" outline, not just NH.

The thing about factoring in ground-game - none of the models do this actively AFAIK. By not factoring it in, they passively reflect an assumption that ground game is one of the "things" in an "all things being equal" situation. It's not just that it'd be very hard to model quantitatively - the assumption is that you don't have to model it in presidential elections, because usually both campaigns bring their absolute A-games along with the resources of a huge national party committed to winning at all costs. That's normally true! So there's no additional "GOTV factor" being applied to polling data, and no 538 post elaborating on how "historically, you have to multiply the polling in the final week by the GOTV factor to get a roughly accurate prediction of what the final vote actually is." It could absolutely be the case that polling shows them neck and neck, but absent a strong Trump GOTV, that poll's correspondence with actual voting behavior declines, and a model incorporating that poll becomes less reliable.

All these decisions would have been made ages ago - I don't think Silver's tweaking the math. However, his repeated references to the uncertainties implied by a high number of undecideds (versus other elections at the same distance from the date) might double as a hedge for this problem also - if Clinton wins in a landslide he can say "Okay, so the next project is to figure out how to make a model that CAN do something with GOTV information because clearly the model we have doesn't work when the two sides are so lopsided."

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:08 (eight years ago)

Early release of voting tabulations could influence voting behavior. So, not gonna happen.

But releasing the party registration breakdown of received early ballots is just fine? That makes no sense.

What I mean is: either don't count the early ballots, or count them and shut up about it.

Not counting them as votes per se, but still bothering to coyly release hints about their likely composition is mega-wack. Why spend the time on reporting this information if it isn't relevant?

pumpkin spice was the Spice Girl who died suspiciously (Ye Mad Puffin), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:12 (eight years ago)

The POLITICO story about Florida black turnout was horseshit even two days ago. Alcee Hastings was a source!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:12 (eight years ago)

Totally separately: it's very interesting to see on the Elections Project main spreadsheet how the states have broken down in the past in terms of percentage of vote that was absentee or early. It's only the 2012 listing as a direct comparison on the page, but I was intrigued to see (for instance) that in 2012 TX had 5 million plus early votes out of a total just under 8 million, while CA's split was much closer to the halfway point (6.7 million out of 13 million). Some patterns have changed due to voting changes -- thus the CO law change mentioned above, and MA is another good example -- so it's not like things are always similar, and that fluidity can/should be factored into things.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:12 (eight years ago)

The thing about factoring in ground-game - none of the models do this actively AFAIK. By not factoring it in, they passively reflect an assumption that ground game is one of the "things" in an "all things being equal" situation. It's not just that it'd be very hard to model quantitatively - the assumption is that you don't have to model it in presidential elections, because usually both campaigns bring their absolute A-games along with the resources of a huge national party committed to winning at all costs. That's normally true! So there's no additional "GOTV factor" being applied to polling data, and no 538 post elaborating on how "historically, you have to multiply the polling in the final week by the GOTV factor to get a roughly accurate prediction of what the final vote actually is." It could absolutely be the case that polling shows them neck and neck, but absent a strong Trump GOTV, that poll's correspondence with actual voting behavior declines, and a model incorporating that poll becomes less reliable.

Don Van Gorp mentioned this way upthread, quoting a longtime GOP poller elsewhere. Paraphrased: the polls assume equality of campaign resources, and that's not evident here. (Thus my further point re: undecided/unaffil -- if you have way more resources, you have the ability to factor them in/reach out to them more.)

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:14 (eight years ago)

basically on election night if she wins Virginia and NH the election is over

Yes, this is kinda true (barring some calamity in CO) - and if they call them as soon as the polls close I could be in bed by 1am GMT. (Obviously I am staying up all night.)

Michael Jones, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:16 (eight years ago)

Thank you very much for your elucidation about the ground game factor wrt polling, Dr. C. That's a seriously enlightening perspective, and it helps to reconcile my belief that polling at this point is reflective of not much worth paying attention to. But of course: polling doesn't factor in the possibility that one of the candidates isn't trying like at all, because why would that ever be a thing?

I think the most important thing for us to do as a country after the election is have a discussion about how consensus reality works.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:25 (eight years ago)

But releasing the party registration breakdown of received early ballots is just fine? That makes no sense.

The party registration is public info on the voter rolls, so the key piece of info is whether a particular voter has already cast a ballot. Obviously, county clerks need that info to be tabulated quickly and available so the voter rolls can be kept current and multiple voting prevented.

Both major parties want that info, too, because it affects how they direct their GOTV efforts. You don't want to cold call voters who've already voted; your phone bankers are wasting their time and the voter gets pissed off, too. So, the names of those who've voted are considered public info and therefore released. Political operatives of all sorts jump on it and use it however they desire.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:26 (eight years ago)

I am basing this on my own GWB "gut", but to me it seems like there are very few actually "independent" voters, like when push comes to shove I think people tend to lean D or GOP and I'd bet, with some exceptions, they vote that way 75 percent of the time with a few outliers....

what I'm saying is that shouldn't we assume that -- however many undecided voters there are -- that they will tend to break about 50/50 and at most maybe 60/40?

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:26 (eight years ago)

I see that 538 is the only one of the nine poll-aggregator/market-predictor sites gathered in the Upshot that now places all 10 "in-play" states in the Trump column (FL, NC, NV, ME-2, NE-2, AZ, UT, OH, IA, GA). That's got to be a worst-case scenario, surely? Even then, Hillary wins.

Michael Jones, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:29 (eight years ago)

I think there's a pretty large body of political science literature suggesting that "independent"/"undecided" voters don't actually exist, so the best polls include questions along the lines of "if you HAD to choose between the two major party candidates, which one would you lean towards?"

xposts

Dan I., Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:32 (eight years ago)

thx dan - i feel like being an undecided voter is almost a vanity thing, these ken bone motherfuckers sitting across the desk with their arms crossed "so...tell me a little bit about yourself" fucking turds

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:34 (eight years ago)

I am basing this on my own GWB "gut", but to me it seems like there are very few actually "independent" voters, like when push comes to shove I think people tend to lean D or GOP and I'd bet, with some exceptions, they vote that way 75 percent of the time with a few outliers....

what I'm saying is that shouldn't we assume that -- however many undecided voters there are -- that they will tend to break about 50/50 and at most maybe 60/40?

― blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, November 3, 2016 2:26 PM (twenty-three seconds ago)

assuming undecideds go 50/50 would invariably tighten the overall vote!

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:34 (eight years ago)

I've been an independent for over a decade now - ever since I went to the Maine Democratic Convention as a delegate and became completely disillusioned with the party. I still vote for the Democrats because of where they stand on most issues not because I identify with the party itself. It was nice when I lived in Portland to be able to do ranked ballots; we actually had Greens and independents on the city council. I hope Maine's election initiative to bring ranked ballots to all statewide and federal elections passes next week.

EZ Snappin, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:34 (eight years ago)

My own suspicions, as I mentioned above, are that, since it seems to me that people who end up voting Republican are more likely to fall into the "it's all just bullshit, both parties suck, I'm a true lone wolf who thinks for himself" camp, more of the purported "undecideds" should be considered R than D.

xpost it's absolutely a vanity thing. It's about identity, and it's bullshit

Dan I., Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:35 (eight years ago)

why? wouldn't a perfect 50/50 split just replicate the results that don't include undecideds? xxp

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:35 (eight years ago)

oh nm, i see. if it's 60/40 and you add a bunch of voters that are 50/50 you're going to close that 60/40.

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:35 (eight years ago)

you can call yourself whatever you want, but if you always vote for the same party, you belong to that party for all practical purposes

Dan I., Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:37 (eight years ago)

No.

EZ Snappin, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:38 (eight years ago)

Aimless OTM there some posts back.

It's been very interesting, BTW, to view this election through the lens of being in SF. CA is of course blue, the end. The two Senate candidates are Dems and Harris will romp, the end. My local rep? Nancy Pelosi herself, who will romp once more. So most of what would be notable statewide and local ad buys don't exist; the most I've seen was a few web ads for Harris and a couple of the national buys for HRC and Trump when catching TV in passing.

As such, election excitement/advertising/etc is concentrated on three things here:

* Statewide propositions
* SF-specific propositions
* SF city/county offices as well as relevant Assembly races (for those unaware: in CA our equivalent of a House of Representatives is called the State Assembly, paired with the State Senate.)

I've caught far more ads for these along the way, the props being the big one -- both statewide and local, since we are talking a major metropolis. Haven't seen many ads for local positions as such, but where this is made up in an unavoidable experience is the absolute deluge -- and we are talking more than I've ever seen in my life living elsewhere -- of flyers and pamphlets and the like for the SF specific propositions and offices. A usual complement of doorhangers but mostly direct mail, and it's an avalanche. Now both my girlfriend and I have already voted, but given the omnidirectional nature of such efforts -- everybody else is getting it too -- it's not like we can avoid all this. Everything we get just goes into recycling.

In contrast, we were only approached twice directly at home by door to door campaign workers, and they were canvassing for their respective candidate in the city/county supervisor race (we have four total in our district; we were approached by the top two). And we ignore any phone calls from unknown numbers by default.

To sum up: again, seeing all these huge things working out from a position of relative remove and almost solely local interest is, itself, interesting. But I'll take the peace of mind.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:39 (eight years ago)

I've been an independent for over a decade now - ever since I went to the Maine Democratic Convention as a delegate and became completely disillusioned with the party. I still vote for the Democrats because of where they stand on most issues not because I identify with the party itself. It was nice when I lived in Portland to be able to do ranked ballots; we actually had Greens and independents on the city council. I hope Maine's election initiative to bring ranked ballots to all statewide and federal elections passes next week.

― EZ Snappin, Thursday, November 3, 2016 1:34 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

see i guess what i was getting at is that you have an ideology, left, which basically you're voting rationally generally the leftmost option that you have in pretty much all cases, so for presidential purposes you're generally a democrat...but like this makes sense to me, I was trying to understand if there are really all these people who are like flip flopping between voting democrat and republican for their presidential and senate races on a regular basis? (not really a formal party affiliation)

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:40 (eight years ago)

yeah undecideds != independent

brimstead, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:40 (eight years ago)

Indeed. I have never once belonged to a political party in all my 26 years of active voting. I incline left but (as was often the case in when I lived in OC) if I was dealing with de facto right wing candidates down the line in any particular local race and I felt that a vote had to be made, as opposed to simply skipping it, I would pick the least worst option. It is all about circumstance sometimes.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:41 (eight years ago)

Anyway, Melania Trump, everyone.

https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/794247600060907520

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:43 (eight years ago)

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump

Deep antipathy to Hillary Clinton exists within the FBI, multiple bureau sources have told the Guardian, spurring a rapid series of leaks damaging to her campaign just days before the election.
Current and former FBI officials, none of whom were willing or cleared to speak on the record, have described a chaotic internal climate that resulted from outrage over director James Comey’s July decision not to recommend an indictment over Clinton’s maintenance of a private email server on which classified information transited.

“The FBI is Trumpland,” said one current agent.

This atmosphere raises major questions about how Comey and the bureau he is slated to run for the next seven years can work with Clinton should she win the White House.

i have to admit i didn't realize comey had a 10-year appointment to his position. is that true of any other federal agency?

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:47 (eight years ago)

Isn't cyber bullying her first lady platform?

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:47 (eight years ago)

It is, but consider her spouse, etc. etc.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:48 (eight years ago)

I became a Dem for the first time in March so I could vote in Florida's closed primaries.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:48 (eight years ago)

UMS - When I lived in Maine I voted for Olympia Snowe in the Senate. She was a Republican, but she was a Mainer first and foremost. I disagreed with her on a bunch of stuff but she fought for the State incredibly hard. I had to think long and hard about voting for Susan Collins - she was a strong advocate for the state but she became such a lapdog for Bush I couldn't do it.

I know people who have switched pretty regularly in Presidential elections the past 30+ years - Reagan and HWB, Clinton then Bush, then Obama. They vote for the person not the politics, which I can sorta see in Presidential elections even if I don't think that way.

EZ Snappin, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:48 (eight years ago)

Never forget Louis Freeh.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:48 (eight years ago)

why? wouldn't a perfect 50/50 split just replicate the results that don't include undecideds? xxp

― Mordy, Thursday, November 3, 2016 2:35 PM (twenty-six seconds ago)

only if you assumed (wrongly) that the pre-election poll results were infallible. polls are used to make projections, not to declare an outcome in advance.

say you have hypothetical state X where a poll average shows 44% support for clinton, 41% for trump, and 15% undecided/third party. maybe based purely on the 44-41 spread, where clinton has 51.7% of the vote for one of the two major candidates, you project clinton to win 80% of the time, depending on how far away from the election you are, etc. now split the undecideds evenly, and you get clinton 51.5% and trump 48.5%, so mathematically the race has tightened a bit, and your projection might fall back a point or two. (obv i made these numbers up to make a math point, and there are all sorts of assumptions you might have to make about the third party/undecideds like whether they will actually vote or not, whether johnson supporters (which make up a larger percentage of these voters) are more likely to break for trump or stick with johnson, etc etc)

obv this by itself is not enough to account for the difference between a 99% projection and a 67% one, but the point is that the closer the overall race is, the more uncertainty undecided voters throw create

oh nm, i see. if it's 60/40 and you add a bunch of voters that are 50/50 you're going to close that 60/40.

― Mordy, Thursday, November 3, 2016 2:35 PM (twelve minutes ago)

right

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:49 (eight years ago)

throw

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:49 (eight years ago)

xpost - huh that's so crazy to me given the GOP's national platform but i believe you

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:50 (eight years ago)

omg silver just put NV to 50/50, moved hillary down again i'm in full panic now

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:52 (eight years ago)

I keep reading NV itt as Noodle Vague.

how's life, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:53 (eight years ago)

“The FBI is Trumpland,” said one current agent.

I guess I really shouldn't be surprised but gah

acerbic (sic)s (will), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:53 (eight years ago)

xxxpost to ez - i think maybe senate races are different than prez to me? i dunno a lot more factors in terms of voting record etc, where as a prez is basically a bullwark against the other part in terms of veto to me

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:54 (eight years ago)

I agree! That's why I don't think along cult of personality voting, but I've seen it enough to at least appreciate its madness.

EZ Snappin, Thursday, 3 November 2016 18:54 (eight years ago)

If you spend all of your time panicking now, how will you have any energy left over to panic after Tuesday if the impossible happens and Trump wins the Presidency?

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:01 (eight years ago)

i was an "i won't join either party" type for my first couple elections, but i eventually realized that since i was inevitably voting dem straight down the line every time all i was doing was depriving myself of the right to participate in the primaries. i still get not wanting to join a party out of principle but it doesn't make much practical sense in a country with exactly one sane political party that has any chance of winning important elections.

(The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:01 (eight years ago)

omg silver just put NV to 50/50, moved hillary down again i'm in full panic now

Silver vs Ralston, I go with Ralston every damn time.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:01 (eight years ago)

Again, read Ralston's most recent news here. He's also said current Clark County voting today matches yesterday's pace; if it matches yesterday's numbers in the breakdown, expect a further 5000 votes added to the firewall.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:03 (eight years ago)

All this won't matter because of the huge opportunity drop tho, right?

(•̪●) (carne asada), Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:04 (eight years ago)

maybe wilson meant the opportunity dump is coming for trump's reelection campaign?

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:05 (eight years ago)

... in 2024

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:09 (eight years ago)

Also keep in mind I expected Silver to do something like that due to that CNN poll yesterday which, again, Ralston rubbished. If it seems like I'm leaning on Ralston hard, it's because why yes, I am going to *take the guy on scene who has been doing political work for years and years in that specific state and knows its ins and outs* over a poll aggregator, FFS. He knows the state, he knows the dynamics, he knows the data, he knows what needs to happen and what doesn't. He's already predicting trends showing that NV congressional seats will turn blue, not to mention a potential flipping of the state houses.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:09 (eight years ago)

Is Clinton going to be able to clean house at the FBI once this election nonsense is all said and done?

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:10 (eight years ago)

FWIW, Ralston's aware of all that's going on and just posted this:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/794254878482792448

Because of the interest in NV's early voting numbers, I will do a Facebook Live at 3 PM PT. All questions welcome. https://www.facebook.com/KTNVLasVegas/

So ask the guy yourself if you're that worried. Reminder too, given that yesterday's poll was CNN: CNN polled Angle would defeat Reid in 2010.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:13 (eight years ago)

Tomorrow might be the rapture by the way. If it's not, I will finally put away my "the end of the campaign is nigh" sign forever and accept either a near miss or a direct hit of the impending meteor.

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:17 (eight years ago)

have to confess that maybe i'm just too simple-minded to understand ralston's astrology when all the recent polling shows a dead heat or trump ahead. forest, trees

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:23 (eight years ago)

Is Clinton going to be able to clean house at the FBI once this election nonsense is all said and done?
Nope

Οὖτις, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:25 (eight years ago)

have to confess that maybe i'm just too simple-minded to understand ralston's astrology when all the recent polling shows a dead heat or trump ahead. forest, trees

― k3vin k., Thursday, November 3, 2016 3:23 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I also want to believe, mostly as a substitute for understanding.

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:26 (eight years ago)

Up to you, Kev, but 'astrology' seems a bit glib, especially when talking about a hard to poll state to start with and whatever conjurings that means.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:27 (eight years ago)

I mentioned it in passing but I'm surprised ranked-choice ballots becoming a possibility in Maine next week isn't a bigger deal.

EZ Snappin, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:45 (eight years ago)

Can you break down how it will work there if it goes through?

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:45 (eight years ago)

Is Clinton going to be able to clean house at the FBI once this election nonsense is all said and done?
Nope

― Οὖτις, Thursday, November 3, 2016 2:25 PM (twenty minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

She can always have them all murdered

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:46 (eight years ago)

With the guns that she confiscates from the American Public

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:46 (eight years ago)

ed miliband, putting in work

goole, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:49 (eight years ago)

It's an instant runoff. You'll rank the candidates 1-whatever. If a candidate gets 50%+ of first place votes they win. If not, the candidate with the lowest toyal of first place votes is eliminated, and those ballots are now cast for the second choice. If that still fails to get a majority, the second lowest total is eliminated and those ballots now go to the second choice (or third choice, if candidate is eliminated). It continues until a candidate has over 50% of the vote and is the winner.

xxxposts

EZ Snappin, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

While Portland has been using it in mayoral elections for a while I think it's a No LePage's Ever Again measure. He won both times with under 40% of the popular vote because of two candidates to his left splitting the vote.

EZ Snappin, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

Hmm! I can see the interest, obv.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:56 (eight years ago)

I want to make a D-Money/Smoothie joke here but ugh

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:56 (eight years ago)

Useful series of tweets from yesterday, speculating on HRC's current main campaign trips and why -- underscoring, again, that we should assume clear strategies are at work, in this case downballot (scroll up from this one for the full read):

https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/793836647834005504

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 19:58 (eight years ago)

i am not as panicked as some here (god knows why not) but at the same time i wish i could "assume clear strategies are at work" in the hillary camp

goole, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:01 (eight years ago)

we have ranked choice for mayors in SF and Berkeley and Oakland as well. It's fucking annoying and I personally think made it possible for two shitty mayors in a row in Oakland

akm, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:03 (eight years ago)

Useful series of tweets from yesterday, speculating on HRC's current main campaign trips and why -- underscoring, again, that we should assume clear strategies are at work, in this case downballot (scroll up from this one for the full read):

YES. I made this point to a student yesterday who had watched Joe Scarborough and was repeating his question in terror ("Why is she going to states that are supposed to be safe?").

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:04 (eight years ago)

i was doing pretty well re anxiety up until it became clear that the FBI was willing to abuse their authority to get trump elected

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:04 (eight years ago)

have we linked this one?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/nov/03/fbi-leaks-hillary-clinton-james-comey-donald-trump

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:05 (eight years ago)

Yeah it's upthread.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:06 (eight years ago)

yep, a little while ago

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:06 (eight years ago)

Well I did my early voting today. Screw all this "low enthusiasm", "two flawed candidates" commentary... I've never felt so viscerally good about voting as I did just now, gleefully filling in the oval for a candidate I voted against in March.

Schlepping up to NH next few days to GOTV for Clinton/Hassan. It's getting scary up there.

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:09 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwXGjmdUUAAtGwD.jpg

^^ great photo tbh

Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:10 (eight years ago)

the FBI ratfucking in 2016. great.

acerbic (sic)s (will), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:11 (eight years ago)

^^ great photo tbh

love how ...metonymic it is: just hair, fingers, trophy wife, and private jet

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:15 (eight years ago)

FBI just doin like it always has done

Οὖτις, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:16 (eight years ago)

now imagine Trump licking a KFC thigh up and down

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:23 (eight years ago)

MAD cat just out of frame

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:23 (eight years ago)

Is he wearing glasses?

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:25 (eight years ago)

oh shit, he probably really can't read those teleprompters!

Manitobiloba (Kim), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:27 (eight years ago)

Useful story out of Arizona:

As of Oct. 30, nine days before the Nov. 8 election, 13 percent of the early ballots cast in Arizona came from Latino voters, up from 11 percent at the same point prior to the 2012 presidential election and from 8 percent in 2008.

The increase from 2012 to 2016 is the largest increase in early voting by Latinos in any state, according to statistics compiled by Catalist, a data company that works with progressive candidates and groups.

Nevada and Colorado have had the second- and third-largest increases in Latino early voting, according to the Catalist data, based on 37 states that have reported early-voting results.

Data tabulated by Arizona's Democratic Party showed an even bigger increase in early voting by Latinos in Arizona, from 6.2 percent in 2012 to nearly 12 percent through Nov. 1. The data is based on Hispanic surnames

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:27 (eight years ago)

The data is based on Hispanic surnames. So they didn't get Carlos O'Brien.

Their all losers and I like associating with loser (Dan Peterson), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:34 (eight years ago)

Bernardo O'Higgins also unavailable.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:35 (eight years ago)

Buena, Ned :-)

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:39 (eight years ago)

A 2% increase is the largest latino increase in the country?! that doesn't sound like good news

Dan I., Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:40 (eight years ago)

EARLY voting, sir.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:43 (eight years ago)

Not overall.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:43 (eight years ago)

Any Latino increase is good for Clinton cause they'll being going for her 70-30

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:44 (eight years ago)

Many of the swing states could use any minuscule percentage boost for Clinton if the polls are to be taken seriously...

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:47 (eight years ago)

Hello.

Okay so yeah, I wasn't going to mention Wilson again...

But he just RT'd this from Kurt Eichenwald at Newsweek, posted about half an hour back:

Coming up tomorrow in @Newsweek: One of my most important stories so far pertaining to the election.

Let speculation run rampant. (From my casual observance, this is not the kind of thing he specifically notes or RTs.)

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:48 (eight years ago)

Other sources were also "teasing" about tomorrow Wilson style (though less cryptic) but I was trying my best to keep my mouth shut.

Evan, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:51 (eight years ago)

huh it never occurred to me that trump wears glasses but of course at his age i suppose he does

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:55 (eight years ago)

that reminds me about that big dump i was going to unleash last week. i'm building it up so it will make a bigger splash when it arrives.

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:55 (eight years ago)

The wording is careful -- Eichenwald doesn't say 'THE most important story,' just 'one of my most,' and you can read what you want into that. And we shouldn't assume that this is a 'leaves Trump a smoking crater' story either. But if Wilson saw fit to flag it, I think he just tipped his hand.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 20:56 (eight years ago)

lol karl

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:02 (eight years ago)

Click this for the vid of Žižek going full-accelerationist:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Channel4News/status/794232437337247744

Channel 4 News
Channel 4 News – Verified account ‏@Channel4News

Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Žižek​ says he would opt for Donald Trump as the apparently less dangerous choice in the US election.

1:112
10:39 AM - 3 Nov 2016

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:05 (eight years ago)

jesus how tweaked out is Žižek in that?

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:07 (eight years ago)

It's a lot of nose rubbing even for him

Mordy, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:10 (eight years ago)

what a troll

Οὖτις, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:12 (eight years ago)

Contrarians for Trump

jmm, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:12 (eight years ago)

Faces of meth...

schwantz, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:14 (eight years ago)

Jerk-offs endorse Donald Trump

...This season we’ve all heard from the corrupt, lying, Clinton-owned mainstream press and their “math,” and we’ve listened patiently while Nate Silver tries to wring another day’s content out of “Clinton will win—_unless she doesn’t._” But today, we finally have the results of the most masturbatory poll yet: Porn streaming site RedTube has officially declared Donald Trump the winner with a healthy-and-normal 52.1 percent to Clinton’s 46.3 percent. Its findings were based on a survey of 1 million Americans ready to climax, but who first had to suffer through the prolonged blue balls of this election. No greater metaphor for the nation’s mental state exists, and thus no more accurate poll..

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:15 (eight years ago)

copied from r/enoughtrumpspam and posted a couple hours ago . not reading much into it but why the hell not

Edit: Update. Story is starting to break. The reporter/writer from Ukraine is now posting details. He claims that Trump went to the USSR invited by Russian higher ups and his hotel and "fun rooms" (that is a direct quote) were supplied by the Soviets. He also points out that a few months after his visit Trump bought ads in US papers that infer a pull back of US Military to countries that don't pay their fair share. The (we need a lot more confirmation) most insane part thus far is that when Trump visited Bob Gates who was at the CIA at the time had them "tailed". And just minutes after these tweets began Kurt Eichenwald tweeted this: Coming up tomorrow in @Newsweek: One of my most important stories so far pertaining to the election.
So i am not going to post every single article or tweet about this but I will give everybody a clean brush.
So this sort of started with GOP Strategist Rick Wilson (Who is now advising Evan McMullin) who said in a radio interview that more Trump oppo was being held back.
It continued with another strategist Liz Mair.
This prior weekend Frank Luntz (the focus group guy) said a "nasty" Trump piece was coming this week.
A few Democratic operatives and strategist have hinted at this as well.
Ok so it is hard to piece this all together but I am going to piece it together best I can.
Trump Story #1) It is Trump-Russia ties.
That is pretty much confirmed.
The Clinton people set the ground work for this all weekend and on Monday we had 3 Trump-Russia pieces all hit within 2 hours of each other. Clinton's camp already had responses lined up and began tweeting about it asap.
Liz Mair and Rick Wilson also immediately jumped on it and both inferred that there was still a lot more to say about Trump-Russia.
Now Rick Wilson has said that the "server" story was not what he was talking about but just said that Trump's Russia ties are stronger than they seem.
That story seemed to go nowhere BUT that may of just been the ground work.
Now this is a little bit of interesting news from Rick Wilson today.
One of this twitter followers this morning tweeted Rick asking "@therickwilson Should we be following @noclador for a preview?"
Wilson responded back here:
"@tvgirl222 You might want to do just that."
Now who in the world is @noclador?
I have no idea but they have been tweeting today that 2 Trump oppo hits are coming but it is more than that.
They actually gave specifics.
This person tweeted here:
"As the @FBI has abandoned its job as the #US' counterintelligence agency, here is a hint what will break @realDonaldTrump tomorrow: cc: #KGB"
But this tweet as a picture of Trump that has this written over it:
"Traitor since July 6th, 1987"
So if Rick Wilson is not just being flippant who is this guy and what does July 6th, 1987 have to do with anything?
Trump Story #2)
This is the mystery but we have some clues.
What we know about this story is it is a bit more of a "character" thing than a policy issue.
Frank Luntz said over the weekend that a quote "nasty" Trump oppo was coming this week. Rick Wilson said a few weeks ago that there it was something even hardened Trump supporters would say "Whoa" over.
So what more specifics do we know?
Rick Wilson says it s NOT about the underage rape accuser. Liz Mair has been much more detailed.
Liz has laid out specifics that it involves NDA that woman have signed with Trump. She has not said more. She has said a few times she thinks it might not come forward because Clinton's people are worried it might bring up past Bill Clinton controversy and that they have not found a big donor willing to guarantee the money to pay the fees and/or legal fees that may result.
Some final hints:
Liz Mair has said that of these 2 1 is (she is told) still coming and the other might be "dead" and her comments seem to strongly infer that the one she thinks is probably "dead" is this mystery #2 story between Trump and woman that Frank Luntz seemed to reference this weekend but he claimed it was coming and it was "nasty" but things change. Rick Wilson has said one has "partially" come out (It seems this is the Trump-Russia connection) and one has not at all (This appears to be mysterious #2).
Rick Wilson actually just tweeted:
"I'll say it for the 10th time:
Media has the two story leads. Neither was the story from yesterday. I don't control timing."
Now after he tweeted that somebody replied with a retweet from guess who? @noclador which read: "Tomorrow it will be 4 days to the #USElection = two BRUTAL revelations about @realDonaldTrump will come out. After which: exile or prison."
After somebody replied that Wilson shot back with a simple tweet of:
"I'm aware".

(•̪●) (carne asada), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:17 (eight years ago)

Good grief at all that. Well, guess we'll see.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:19 (eight years ago)

i want this to be true as much as the next guy but i don't really trust that there's anything and can't fathom what could actually legitimately disrupt trump support at this pt but hey i would love to be wrong

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:22 (eight years ago)

I can barely parse all of that. what is the gist then? human trafficking via his modeling agency and the soviets? what?

akm, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:22 (eight years ago)

Wilson's hand waiving for what seems like months now really cheapens this in my mind, i get that he claims not to control timing or wharever but it seems like smoke and mirrors

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:23 (eight years ago)

that he really is a puppet of Putin, basically

xp

Οὖτις, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:23 (eight years ago)

i want this to be true as much as the next guy but i don't really trust that there's anything and can't fathom what could actually legitimately disrupt trump support at this pt but hey i would love to be wrong

Yeah, pretty much. I figure it'll be more 'huh' than anything else, whatever turns up.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:24 (eight years ago)

"that he really is a puppet of Putin, basically"

like a literal hand puppet

akm, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:24 (eight years ago)

or a little hand puppet

(•̪●) (carne asada), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:26 (eight years ago)

"Traitor since July 6th, 1987"

my 8th birthday forever sullied. you motherfucker trump!

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:26 (eight years ago)

yeah Eichenwald has used the "here's a major story that will disrupt the narrative" line before when he dropped something about all of Trump's financial interested. it didn't make a dent. but if an orgy tape is involved...

frogbs, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:27 (eight years ago)

Skeptical too. With 30 million + voting early and counting, who will say 'Eh, fuck it, I'm staying home/writing in 'Al Haig'"?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:27 (eight years ago)

Hey you mock the Al Haig subreddit at your peril.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:28 (eight years ago)

I kinda don't think any more direct allegations will actually do anything - there has to be raw, documented evidence ie recordings, video etc. otherwise it's just more noise

Οὖτις, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:29 (eight years ago)

Kinda my thought. Even documentation wouldn't be enough.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:29 (eight years ago)

you can't believe anything on that subreddt. It's all Haigiography

EZ Snappin, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:30 (eight years ago)

I read into it that he was being blackmailed by the Russians.

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:30 (eight years ago)

I'm very much in favor of some form of ranked-choice voting but I think I don't ''get'' the Maine proposal. Couldn't there be scenarios where substantial numbers of people's votes (for say, the third-place finisher in the first count) end up not 'counting' if the real small-fry candidates yield enough votes to put #1 or #2 over the top? Or does the math not work out? Idk somehow it seems it'd be simpler to do a true instant-runoff: the top x candidates stay in, and everybody else's votes get redistributed all at once. If no majority, repeat for x minus 1. Or would that yield goofy side effects in a different way?

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:30 (eight years ago)

... and still is. (xp)

Millions of species Faye Dunaway (Tom D.), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:31 (eight years ago)

I mean, I muttered this on FB the other day but: Wilson's vested interest in the end is not solely "Look, Trump really IS awful" but also "And here's my candidate over here you can vote for instead, who isn't Clinton if you are concerned about that."

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:31 (eight years ago)

you can't believe anything on that subreddt. It's all Haigiography

― EZ Snappin,

http://www.newnownext.com/wp-content/uploads/backlot/2012/12/Jake-jake-gyllenhaal-26067079-480-260.gif

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:32 (eight years ago)

Also: they can't not ask for a comment from the campaign before the story runs. And if Trump and surrogates aren't especially and suddenly unhinged tonight, kinda likely they're not fazed.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:33 (eight years ago)

I'm voting for Grandma Death

erry red flag (f. hazel), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:33 (eight years ago)

Skeptical too. With 30 million + voting early and counting, who will say 'Eh, fuck it, I'm staying home/writing in 'Al Haig'"?

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, November 3, 2016 4:27 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Such is the nature of this board that I wasn't sure if you were talking about the former Reagan cabinet member or the murderous Jazz pianist.

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:34 (eight years ago)

I'm still not sure, to be honest

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:34 (eight years ago)

I wasn't sure if you were talking about the former Reagan cabinet member or the murderous Jazz pianist.

what's the difference?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:35 (eight years ago)

Sorry, Alfred. I let my twitter persona cross the lines into my ILX one.

EZ Snappin, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:35 (eight years ago)

xp to Dr C
If the small fry votes put the leaders over the top, then that is what the people wanted. The third placer didn't have enough second or third tier support.

nickn, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:38 (eight years ago)

Also: they can't not ask for a comment from the campaign before the story runs. And if Trump and surrogates aren't especially and suddenly unhinged tonight, kinda likely they're not fazed

question is will you be able to tell the difference?

frogbs, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:38 (eight years ago)

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01393/1982-haig_1393789c.jpg

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:39 (eight years ago)

Thomas Theiner (noclador) is not a journalist in any meaningful sense. He used to work for Euromaidanpress pumping out articles about how Poland is doomed unless it didn't increase military spending, Russia was on the verge of invading Romania and Sweden, etc. He then switched to writing occasional pieces for the foreign press about how the current Ukrainian government is corrupt and has capitulated by not going for all out war, iirc. If someone had a real scoop, there are a thousand journalists in Ukraine alone they would give it to first.

Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:40 (eight years ago)

Ah thanks, that makes a lot more sense. I was wondering who dude was or was supposed to be.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:41 (eight years ago)

al haig had an interesting look about him

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:42 (eight years ago)

so did the one on the right

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:43 (eight years ago)

also lol haigiography

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:43 (eight years ago)

Like a lot of great conspiracies, that reddit thing puts together a whole lot of pieces already out there, circumstantial or no. Like, doesn't it piggyback off of this from a couple of days ago?

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/10/veteran-spy-gave-fbi-info-alleging-russian-operation-cultivate-donald-trump

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:45 (eight years ago)

sigh

k3vin k., Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:48 (eight years ago)

You're just jealous you didn't break it yourself!
https://40.media.tumblr.com/bc33b29ab1f8173512cc58f584067ad0/tumblr_o2ig7nftzp1qlemdlo1_540.jpg

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:50 (eight years ago)

"Tomorrow it will be 4 days to the #USElection = two BRUTAL revelations about @realDonaldTrump will come out. After which: exile or prison."

Enh. Unless it's a tape or raw vid, one can safely paraphrase the Geto Boys that "ain't shit changing, ain't shit changing."

Even the tax returns at this point wouldn't really do much, would they?

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:50 (eight years ago)

I think I'd prefer tax returns to Russian innuendo, given how bad those three leaked pages were.

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:51 (eight years ago)

Real or no, this seems to be the feed for Trumpenfreude:

https://twitter.com/noclador

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:53 (eight years ago)

(My mea culpa, I am trying to keep my head on straight, but I can totally see how confirmation bias might lead one to buy into conspiracies like any other internet looney.)

Josh in Chicago, Thursday, 3 November 2016 21:59 (eight years ago)

I'm very much in favor of some form of ranked-choice voting but I think I don't ''get'' the Maine proposal. Couldn't there be scenarios where substantial numbers of people's votes (for say, the third-place finisher in the first count) end up not 'counting' if the real small-fry candidates yield enough votes to put #1 or #2 over the top? Or does the math not work out? Idk somehow it seems it'd be simpler to do a true instant-runoff: the top x candidates stay in, and everybody else's votes get redistributed all at once. If no majority, repeat for x minus 1. Or would that yield goofy side effects in a different way?

Your proposal is identical to what EZ Snappin described...?

¶ (DJP), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:02 (eight years ago)

I really hope that Rick Wilson isn't dumb enough to think something as hard to prove and convoluted as all this Russian James Bond movie shit is going to derail Trump

in russia the oppo dumps you :/

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:08 (eight years ago)

Yeah ShariVari's assessment is one I trust. There's either a lot more to this or Eichenwald in particular got played.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:14 (eight years ago)

It might just be that Russian mob figures had apartments in Trump Tower. Given how breathless Eichenwald was over the Sputnik story, which turned out to be hot air, I think if there was anything stronger than that his head would probably have exploded by now.

The three extra steps Theiner takes - that Mogilevich owns Alfa, that Yaponchik used Trump comms to keep in touch with Russia and the rehash of the Slate server story might be his own flight of fancy.

Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:22 (eight years ago)

I'm skeptical of anything Russian having too much of an effect on Trump, especially since most of his voters prefer Putin to Obama and Hillary.

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:23 (eight years ago)

i guess it at least might keep down the email talk for a minute

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:24 (eight years ago)

It might just be that Russian mob figures had apartments in Trump Tower. Given how breathless Eichenwald was over the Sputnik story, which turned out to be hot air, I think if there was anything stronger than that his head would probably have exploded by now.

Ha, trudat. When I saw it was Eichenwald I remember thinking "Hmm...okay." Still, here we are.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:24 (eight years ago)

Stepping away from all this, some new polls and things floating around, including one of Colorado showing HRC up 6. Harry Enten taking a closer look and tying it into early voting:

What you'll notice about (the) Magellan (poll) in CO, as @nate_cohn found in FL/NC/PA, is that Clinton wins REGISTERED unaffiliated voters. If that holds in Nevada like it did for Obama, Trump has no real shot in NV based on the early vote trends with so many ballots cast.
.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:30 (eight years ago)

I can't take reading The Guardian any more, 538 has been off-limits for nearly a week now, Twitter is just Twitter, ILX is basically my only source of election news now. Give me some good news please?

xp - thanks Ned, like that, more like that, that's it.

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:33 (eight years ago)

I have a crush on Enten.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:33 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSVw6djRhzk

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:34 (eight years ago)

Looks like Trump not going down in Nevada without a fight:

https://twitter.com/BenMargiott/status/794301565234511876

BREAKING: @realDonaldTrump to campaign in Reno Saturday at 5:00 at Reno-Sparks Convention Center

Early voting closes tomorrow, so there's that, but Ralston notes that "beefed up" numbers in Reno help him.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:38 (eight years ago)

But here's something amusing that just broke too:

https://twitter.com/rickhasen/status/794307571213422592

Breaking: Roger Stone Ordered to PERSONALLY Appear at NV Voter Intimidation Hearing Tomorrow

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:40 (eight years ago)

trump + reno together at last

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:40 (eight years ago)

good fuck roger stone.. the exit polling thing hes orchestrating is so flagrantly gross

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:41 (eight years ago)

yeah but he's got Nixon tattoos.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:42 (eight years ago)

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LmcNzKluao8/VcH3iRoMPlI/AAAAAAABdmY/wYRxRps_nYA/s1600/RogerStoneNixonTattoo1.jpg
this is me when roger stone is fined (jailed?) for voter intimidation

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:46 (eight years ago)

Every time I see Roger Stone I can't help but think of him as some kinda alternate universe version of Roger Sterling

“a tub of horses” (Myonga Vön Bontee), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:55 (eight years ago)

but he is!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, 3 November 2016 22:56 (eight years ago)

Turns out Stone might not have to appear:

CORRECTION: It may be that Stone need not personally appear at the hearing tomorrow. I'm trying to get clarification and deleting original

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 23:00 (eight years ago)

Nice discussion between Sam Wang and Julian Zelizer here:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/03/opinions/clinton-trump-data-not-drama-wang-zelizer/index.html

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 3 November 2016 23:28 (eight years ago)

trump + reno together at last

― carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries)

The biggest little turd in the USA.

nickn, Thursday, 3 November 2016 23:33 (eight years ago)

nevada is kinda strict about appearing personally for hearings unless you request permission to appear via phone.. also depends on who your judge is.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Thursday, 3 November 2016 23:42 (eight years ago)

i had to warn my cousin in Sparks to get out of town by Saturday

akm, Thursday, 3 November 2016 23:53 (eight years ago)

that town's not big enough for the both of you?

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Friday, 4 November 2016 00:02 (eight years ago)

Ha

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 00:20 (eight years ago)

So if I'm to believe Wayne Barrett's Daily Beast story about the collusion of Giuliani people + the FBI, and I see no reason why I shouldn't, we have confirmation for the rest of us that a large section of the GOP elite will consider Hillary Clinton such an excrescence on the body politic that it will pursue any means to lock her up. I'm stating baldly and in a no-duh manner because we should brace for Clinton II, in which everything from a haircut to a phone call will be grounds for not just impeachment but putting her in jail.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 00:22 (eight years ago)

I would say that would get old real fast, but it's more like in no time at all.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 00:40 (eight years ago)

sore loser crybabies

rap is dad (it's a boy!), Friday, 4 November 2016 00:48 (eight years ago)

When I interned with Barrett he used to have a picture of Giuliani in a dress hanging on the wall. They were roommates in college or something iirc?

Mordy, Friday, 4 November 2016 00:53 (eight years ago)

Interesting from Tapper just now:

been hearing for weeks anecdotally about the CIA-FBI divide over this election.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 00:54 (eight years ago)

Cohn just now linking an ABC/WaPo poll story:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/794343177553592324

Yikes this ABC/Post electorate actually is too old and too white (not something you hear often from me)

If so, hm indeed!

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 01:11 (eight years ago)

lol RCP's electorals for Clinton when excluding toss-ups went up about 29 once the FL poll came out.

should be noted, there's too little time for a 'correction' to any temporary setback in the poll, but NYT predicted this movement while indicating it may not represent a real 'shift'. we're just gonna have to go in nervous on Tuesday!

HuffPo is also at 99%, and the most accurate pollster of 2012, Linzer, still has it in the lower 90s. the New Hampshire polls were disheartening today though. the Colorado poll was useless due to its high level of undecideds.

also Trump is crap and eats crap and I hope he falls out of an airplane

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 01:14 (eight years ago)

I voted today

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Friday, 4 November 2016 01:15 (eight years ago)

Ralston just now; NV is prob done and dusted:

Nearly 34,000 people had voted in Clark County by 6 PM. Going to be one of highest turnout days yet.

Wait on the breakdown later but if these numbers are matched or higher tomorrow, then the Reno visit almost certainly is a random Hail Mary.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 01:23 (eight years ago)

Silver, explaining: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-clintons-position-is-worse-than-obamas/

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 01:29 (eight years ago)

it sure is going to be fun to see the handwringing in the days after over who was "most right" about the results

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 01:30 (eight years ago)

Trump, obviously.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 01:37 (eight years ago)

if this is true, which would really shock me (how could you not account for undecided voters...at all?), then this at least partially explains why PEC, for example, has clinton at >99% to win, and why that number is every bit as absurd as it looks

― k3vin k., Thursday, November 3, 2016 1:00 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

he spoke quite at length about undecideds on October 14th, including pointing out his own error that caused him to incorrectly predict Kerry in 2004:

"5. Undecideds and Gary Johnson/Jill Stein supporters. In the past, nearly all of these voters end up supporting one of the two major candidates. For example, Johnson and Stein supporters combined got less than 2% of the vote in 2012. What will they do this year? Below, I estimate the impact.

Currently, undecideds and Johnson/Stein supporters constitute about 14% of voters. Drew Linzer has pointed out that undecideds/minor party supporters are unusually high this year, about 6% ahead of 2008 and 2012. This is a legitimate source of uncertainty about the eventual outcome. However, there is information about how these voters will eventually fall.

Undecided voters usually break somewhat evenly (sorry, 2004 Sam!). Data from SurveyMonkey suggests that Johnson supporters break about evenly between Clinton and Trump, while Stein supporters tilt strongly toward Clinton. This is consistent with many state polls that show Clinton doing the same or slightly better when the matchup is Clinton/Trump compared with Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein. So the net expected effect is, on average, slightly toward Clinton*.

The topic of undecided/minor-party support requires more unpacking. I would rate it as the most legitimate concern about prediction. In my estimation it alters the probability by a tiny amount at most.

Anyway, if there’s some hidden reason why polls are all wet, it hasn’t come up yet. If you’re a Trump supporter, it would be more productive to focus on downticket Senate and House races, where your side has a better chance of surviving November.

>>>

*This can be quantified. Based on recent data, let us assume 6% undecideds, 6% Johnson supporters, and 2% Stein supporters. By November 8th, they might break as follows.

Undecideds: Let’s say these voters end up somewhere between 4.5%-1.5% favoring Clinton, to 4.5%-1.5% favoring Trump. Using the rule of thumb that the range is 4*standard deviation, this leads to a net change of 0.0 +/- 1.5% (mean +/- SD).

Johnson voters: Assuming 1% stay with Johnson, the same logic leads to a net change of 0.0 +/- 1.3%.

Stein voters: Assuming 0.5% stay with Stein and an average 3-to-1 split for Clinton, the effect is an increase in Clinton’s margin by 0.7 +/- 0.5%.

The overall combined change is a net increase of margin in Clinton’s favor by 0.7 +/- 2.3%. Given current conditions and based on the uncertainty of 2.3%, in 3 out of 100 cases enough voters would switch to Trump to close his current deficit."

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 01:40 (eight years ago)

also took the following swipe at 538 today: "If you want an estimate that uses national polls, see The Upshot. I’m a little concerned that FiveThirtyEight’s code double-counts (i.e. overcounts) the swings in national and state polls. They’ve been a bit underconfident and volatile."

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 01:42 (eight years ago)

Eichenwald tweeted Maddow will do another reveal so... *shrug*

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 01:45 (eight years ago)

this dump is gonna blow

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 01:47 (eight years ago)

now we're reversing polarities

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 01:49 (eight years ago)

i should have stayed on vacation a few more days

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 4 November 2016 01:50 (eight years ago)

Anyway thanks Neanderthal for that breakdown there. I was thinking "Jeez, surely he factored that in," and there ya go.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 01:51 (eight years ago)

yeah i figured there must have been some explanation

k3vin k., Friday, 4 November 2016 01:59 (eight years ago)

i'm not entirely convinced you can make the same assumptions with undecideds/third party supporters this year that you can in previous years, but we shall see. what i'd really like is to challenge sam wang to lay down 950 bucks on hillary to win ten, though. those are good odds, assuming he believes in his numbers. i bet no one in their right mind takes that bet, though (which is why the betting markets currently have hillary as a 2-1 favorite, not a 99-1 favorite)

k3vin k., Friday, 4 November 2016 02:10 (eight years ago)

So the Maddow preview of the Eichenwald piece, I gather, is (I think it's on now) about major/serious Russia/Trump connections? Mixed in with CIA v. FBI beef? All sorts of other shit going on. $10 million dollar Trump donation in May to veterans went to a group run by a former FBI asst. director?

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 02:29 (eight years ago)

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/why-the-russians-are-backing-trump-maddow-previews-blockbuster-newsweek-story/

this doesn't sound very exciting but but maybe it will read more exciting

akm, Friday, 4 November 2016 02:30 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwYd-MqXgAASaMP.jpg

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 02:31 (eight years ago)

Trump blew up Siberia Airlines Flight 1812

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 02:31 (eight years ago)

you'd think it'd be more exciting than "emails! emails!" and yet....

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 02:32 (eight years ago)

but yeah, if this is the dump.......zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 02:33 (eight years ago)

This by all accounts is not the Maltese Dump.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 02:35 (eight years ago)

i have to think that in a normal year this would have been election ending but we're post-truth now

akm, Friday, 4 November 2016 02:40 (eight years ago)

undecided voters don't want to read and disseminate, you gotta be short and sexy with em.

"Confirmed: Trump = Shit" would be a better headline

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 02:41 (eight years ago)

My sister is a election inspector for the OSCE in Uzbekistan, Russia, etc. just told me that they'll have several hundred inspectors working this one:
http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/usa/246356

Elvis Telecom, Friday, 4 November 2016 02:58 (eight years ago)

Trump International Hotel in Toronto just declared bankruptcy, is being sold. It had only been open four years.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 03:08 (eight years ago)

re general election anxiety, I feel mostly calm but that's not something that comes naturally, it's taking a lot of concerted effort and all of my intestinal fortitude to not just lose my shit and flip out at everyone.

I've reached the point where I've had to unfollow some of my dearest friends on FB until the election is over.
Weirdly though most of them are outside the country. It's crazy, it's like fearmongering is their new hobby they're SO certain that Trump is going to happen and are just looping out about Nazis and fascism to such a dogwhistle extreme it's ridiculous and frankly it's just pissing me off now.

Like, cool, hang out over there and tell me how fucked up my country is meanwhile I'm living here and have to vote in this shit so maybe shut up for a while idk

I really want Tuesday to get here.

Flamenco Drop (VegemiteGrrl), Friday, 4 November 2016 03:08 (eight years ago)

Steve Schmidt, former McCain manager, said it twice on MSNBC a few minutes ago: if the election were tomorrow, Clinton will be "north" of 300 electoral votes and the r5th president; on Tuesday night she will also be north of 300.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 03:14 (eight years ago)

45th

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 03:14 (eight years ago)

well that's an unfortunate byline for amanda prestigiacomo

j., Friday, 4 November 2016 03:18 (eight years ago)

what schmidt said is my intuition too, i feel like the info on both candidates is really just all out there, I'd be surprised if undecideds broke decisively toward either one of them

intheblanks, Friday, 4 November 2016 03:21 (eight years ago)

ILX is basically my only source of election news now. Give me some good news please?

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794323335169658890

follow him for daily updates on the florida early vote! in particular he says the latino vote is surging, and from what i have read (in particular from jon ralston/nevada) is that latino voters are less likely to show up in public polls, for example in the reid/angle senate race where reid was set to lose by like 4 according to public polls which were all wrong for this reason. latino vote surge --> watch FL, NV, AZ especially.

one campaign has a *highly* organized GOTV operation in the field, the other.. doesn't. but that means everyone has to work hard to actually vote and get everyone they know to vote! i will be volunteering all weekend and phone banking other days, even though phone banking stresses me out.. gotta do something. from what i am reading it looks like trump has no path to win and the early vote looks good for clinton but again, have to keep working.

if you're really stressed out can always go see what david plouffe has to say which is always "the race is stable and has been stable, clinton will win, get out the vote"

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Friday, 4 November 2016 03:21 (eight years ago)

i will be volunteering all weekend and phone banking other days

ty, daria-g

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Friday, 4 November 2016 03:39 (eight years ago)

I would like something to destroy Trump besides losing fair and square. Is that so much to ask

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 03:53 (eight years ago)

assload of new polls dropped within the last few hours. one national has Hillary up 8 (Ipsos/Reuters). their last poll (pre-Comeygate) had her up 4. still feels more like an outlier though Silver has given them an A- on the pollster ratings. Gravis has her up 1, unchanged from their last poll, but it was taken over one day only (10/31) while the Reuters/Ipsos was over five days (10/29 - 11/2).

Meanwhile, some Colorado and Florida friendly Clinton polls just came out.

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 04:01 (eight years ago)

not worrying about undecideds or even watching polls too much right now - so many states including OH, FL, NC, CO, NV are already voting and so much of their vote will be in by election day - clinton campaign has a massively better organization to bank votes from less-likely voters which they have been doing for weeks. working on building up an insurmountable lead by election day because they have the data and operation to find those votes and hit their targets, and the trump campaign doesn't

plus, clinton has barack obama, michelle obama, bernie sanders, tim kaine, joe biden, bill clinton and elizabeth warren getting out the vote. trump has giuliani, five or six trumps, pence, and sarah palin = who-cares.gif

as far as volunteering i wish i did more but too busy with work/life stress, there are people who put in so many hours...

finally, i have on cnn for the first time in days and coop talking to conway rn about melania's speech and how nice it was and so forth. can i just say something. melania is terrible and her speech was terrible

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Friday, 4 November 2016 04:04 (eight years ago)

/!\ ALERT /!\ Eichenwald said Trump's balls were brittle /!\ ALERT /!\

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 04:05 (eight years ago)

Volunteered doing data entry at local county dem office tonight. Felt good.

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Friday, 4 November 2016 04:07 (eight years ago)

Eichenwald is doing the hard investigative work other journalists refuse to do.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Friday, 4 November 2016 04:08 (eight years ago)

Tumescent journalism

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 4 November 2016 04:11 (eight years ago)

I have a crush on Enten.

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Thursday, November 3, 2016 5:33 PM (five hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Didn't know that diet soda and the Buffalo Bills had that kind of effect on you.

Wozniak on Kimye's Baby (jaymc), Friday, 4 November 2016 04:12 (eight years ago)

I don't want to say this explains a few things but

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/794297384457080832

I spent the day with Trump supporters in Tennessee. They told me the country is on the wrong path, and that the earth is flat. Literally.

I kinda want to tell Kaleb Horton to go through there on his road trip and find these people.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 04:16 (eight years ago)

yo if u like nerdy jews

Mordy, Friday, 4 November 2016 04:16 (eight years ago)

they showed local video interview of Trump supporters (Orlando) and they were speaking of him in cult-like adulation and it was enough for me to instantly lose my lunch.

shame I was going down on someone at the time

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 04:24 (eight years ago)

The tumescent mention was some posts back.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 04:25 (eight years ago)

We call that the "October surprise"xp

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 4 November 2016 04:25 (eight years ago)

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/us/politics/obama-espn-cmon-man.html

i approve this message

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Friday, 4 November 2016 04:37 (eight years ago)

oh shit does this mean we're gonna get a vox CMON MAN explainer nooooooo

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Friday, 4 November 2016 04:40 (eight years ago)

:D

Flamenco Drop (VegemiteGrrl), Friday, 4 November 2016 04:43 (eight years ago)

dana bash --> melania was a fashion model, she's really fascinating
gloria borger --> women are thinking about her, she resonates with a lot of women

CMON MAN

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Friday, 4 November 2016 04:44 (eight years ago)

Ralston just updated for Nevada:

Huge day for Dems in Clark County. Dems won by nearly 6,000 votes (18,122-12,328). Mr. Trump, they have built that firewall above 60,000.

Assuming same pace/breakdown tomorrow, or more -- final day of NV early voting -- and per Ralston's other observations Trump's chances keep collapsing further.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 05:07 (eight years ago)

He further adds:

Day 13 of early voting in Clark, 2016: Ds +5,794

Day 13 of early voting in Clark, 2012: Ds +5,673

I told you it looked a lot like 2012.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 05:07 (eight years ago)

I think I'm going to wait for a moment where I'm feeling confident about things, and then cash out, avoid all media until the election. Or at the very least try not to think about it over the weekend and face my anxiety with renewed vigour on Monday.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Friday, 4 November 2016 07:25 (eight years ago)

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/04/us/politics/obama-espn-cmon-man.html🔗

i approve this message

The thing about this article that made me lol the most is that I actually do have a cousin Pookie.

¶ (DJP), Friday, 4 November 2016 09:56 (eight years ago)

We are told we cannot use the term fascist to describe this. I’m at a loss to find a more accurate alternative.

Andrew Sullivan on Trump, America and the Abyss

Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Friday, 4 November 2016 12:13 (eight years ago)

What's it going to take for this article to get some traction in the media??

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 12:22 (eight years ago)

If you're referring to Andrew Sullivan, I hope he's buried in the sea beneath several miles of silt.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 12:26 (eight years ago)

Considering the synergy with Gamergate, it's not entirely surprising that the latest thing to freak out the_donald is "what is art?"

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/5b08cy/warning_graphic_i_dont_think_you_guys_appreciate/

Andrew Farrell, Friday, 4 November 2016 12:27 (eight years ago)

I was referring to the newsweek article. Post got split in two by accident.

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 12:33 (eight years ago)

The main takeaway from the Eichenwald article seems to be that foreign governments / intelligence agencies are anonymously briefing journalists in a bid to stop Trump becoming president, which is quite ironic. There doesn't seem to be anything new or more substantiated than in previous reports. Interesting to see him mentioning this one again:

https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2016/10/did-newsweeks-kurt-eichenwald-use-threats-and-brib.html

I've taken Clinton to win between 330-360 electoral votes at 4/1, which seemed like very decent odds.

Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), Friday, 4 November 2016 12:39 (eight years ago)

The CNN numbers guy said that Early Voting is way down compared to 2012, which goes against every other article that I've read.

What gives?

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Friday, 4 November 2016 12:43 (eight years ago)

I don't think they want to acknowledge the existence of non-CNN employees.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 12:45 (eight years ago)

Morgan State Prof article from a few days ago

http://www.theroot.com/articles/politics/2016/11/the-blame-game-has-already-started-the-myth-of-the-depressed-black-turnout/

curmudgeon, Friday, 4 November 2016 12:50 (eight years ago)

Elections Project has EV at 36 million where the total in 2012 was 46. Still some days to go -- there are notable spikes in some states, however, as well as lesser amounts in others. California is a good example -- and for good reason: the only statewide races worth mentioning are the propositions, so without personality and money driving things, less EV. But TX and FL and others are exceeding their numbers, and NV looks like it might do that today, etc.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 12:50 (eight years ago)

McDonald aka Elections Project was interviewed last night with others, worth a watch.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/know-voter-turnout-far/

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 12:55 (eight years ago)

There's been better data aggregation itt than among most of the national news media, it's fucking pathetic.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Friday, 4 November 2016 12:56 (eight years ago)

Not you guys. Y'all are great and doing a wonderful job of promoting a realistic perspective on what's happening

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Friday, 4 November 2016 12:57 (eight years ago)

re: the Eichenwald piece, from our favorite sketchy Ukrainian journo:

Thomas C. Theiner ‏@noclador 2h2 hours ago

Thomas C. Theiner Retweeted Thomas C. Theiner

Btw. this isn't the #Trump-destroying revelation yet.
There is something more "graphic".

how's life, Friday, 4 November 2016 12:58 (eight years ago)

JUST FUCKING DROP IT ALREADY!!!!!!!!!!!

flappy bird, Friday, 4 November 2016 12:59 (eight years ago)

haha for realz tho

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 4 November 2016 13:01 (eight years ago)

Is there a good place to read about or does anyone wanna explain the importance of gotv? Does the population find it really hard to do so? I've seen some people itt talk about driving people as a way of volunteering for example.

plums (a hoy hoy), Friday, 4 November 2016 13:05 (eight years ago)

More graphic? It's gonna be a graph. Great.

Michael Jones, Friday, 4 November 2016 13:06 (eight years ago)

lol

how's life, Friday, 4 November 2016 13:09 (eight years ago)

if a trump-humpin' tape was to go public would you watch it? i'm not sure i could live with the horror of knowing what trump's cum face looks like. seeing fred durst's sexy time expression years ago was bad enough :(

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 4 November 2016 13:12 (eight years ago)

'hnnnnnnnnggggghhhhhhhhh'

https://qph.ec.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-8b3ca6cb1d41b3ba3b45de7a18c5c54c-c?convert_to_webp=true

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 4 November 2016 13:14 (eight years ago)

A friend, on Twitter:

Leonard Pierce ‏@leonardpierce
Interesting, this new Nate Silver piece says Trump's chances of winning increase every hour you don't refresh 538

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Friday, 4 November 2016 13:17 (eight years ago)

The day Trump porn drops:

http://static.celebuzz.com/uploads/2015/07/true-detective-woody-harrelson-073115.gif

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Friday, 4 November 2016 13:21 (eight years ago)

a hoy hoy - Not quite sure I understand your question. Getting out the vote is important because you need people to vote, and it is generally an inconvenience and in some cases a pain in the ass especially where it involves missing work, or where people have less mobility, etc. etc. So you do a lot of repeated layers of building the groundwork, following up with people, trying to make sure they know where and how to vote, trying to convince them that it's really really important that they do, providing resources like transportation if need be, etc.

Disclaimer, I am deep in GOTV for a university grad worker unionization campaign so I am very sympathetic to anybody doing this for the presidential election! For me it's things like trying to design good, clear, flyer-ready maps so that people know where to find the voting place on campus though it's in a building most people have never heard of by name. Getting, in my case, architecture students to get up and leave their desks and walk five minutes away is actually a really uphill struggle. People have to realize their vote matters, we could lose this thing, it's important... oof. Sorry. Been a long week of this!

DOCTOR CAISNO, BYCREATIVELABBUS (Doctor Casino), Friday, 4 November 2016 13:22 (eight years ago)

It just seems like so much more effort and focus than anything we see this side of the Atlantic, and with the trumps lack of it, potentially disastrous. Do people genuinely get confused how, when and where? Is there a big transport problem? Basically I was just wondering if I was missing anything in why if trump didn't put the effort in, why wouldn't his supporters still likely vote?

plums (a hoy hoy), Friday, 4 November 2016 13:27 (eight years ago)

I saw a before and after video of someone jumping off a skyscraper on Facebook so a Trump sex tape would be a party.

flappy bird, Friday, 4 November 2016 13:30 (eight years ago)

OK, so that's what GOTV means, I thought it was like a Republican TV channel or something.

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Friday, 4 November 2016 13:33 (eight years ago)

lol

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 4 November 2016 13:40 (eight years ago)

Game of Thrones 5

how's life, Friday, 4 November 2016 13:42 (eight years ago)

Yeah I guess its a stupid question, my bad

plums (a hoy hoy), Friday, 4 November 2016 13:42 (eight years ago)

http://www.techmtaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/GOtv.png

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 13:44 (eight years ago)

GOPTV

it's just people jumping off of buildings for 23 hours

1 hour test pattern

Neanderthal, Friday, 4 November 2016 14:33 (eight years ago)

Updated post from Ralston on NV this morning, worth your time as always. Considers raw votes, percentages, past history, current data and more. He sees Clinton clearly in the driver's seat and continuing, and concludes thus (HRC Clark edge currently 61,000 with today's voting to go, she picked up 5000 votes Wed and a little more than that yesterday, and will presumably be on track to match/exceed that today, the final day of early voting):

Remember that Barack Obama won the state by almost 7 points after the Dems built that 71,000-voter edge in Clark. So it probably doesn't have to be that big for Hillary Clinton to win.

Indie turnout is going to end up at about 150,000, and that universe will be important. But it's still only a fifth of total turnout right now.

Trump still has a very narrow path here that goes like this: Hold the Dems to a reasonable win on Friday and, because turnout is down, squeeze extra GOP voters out on Tuesday, especially in rural Nevada, where Republicans now have about a 25,000 vote lead. The Republicans need to win Election Day pretty big -- remember the Dems won it in '12 -- but it remains in question whether it will make a difference at the top of the ticket, much less down ballot.

This combined with electoral math increasingly dictating he needs the state further explains Trump's last minute Reno rally -- Washoe being a much better spot than Clark to hold it -- and the fact that a lot of the typical surrogates are coming back to the state too. Ralston fully accepts the campaign logic but is openly doubtful that this is near enough, and his three key reasons he's stated/repeated throughout the week:

1. Crappy Trump GOTV, or rather, nonexistent, compared to the HRC effort already producing results. Said this before, and in yesterday's Facebook Live completely trashed the idea of Trump GOTV existing, as well as dismissing the state party as being fuckups in that regard. (As plenty of others have noted, Trump's rally, while probably his only realistic option at doing anything now, is spectacularly ill-timed -- it's the day AFTER early voting ends.)

2. Trump needs 90% of his base; Ralston is not seeing that happening at all (hasn't gone into the reasons, but things to consider: Heck appears to be running some points ahead of Trump in his Senate bid, Trump's own overwhelming negatives in general and, perhaps, just enough of a McMullin-inspired backwash among Mormons in the state, though that's likely the least of the reasons). In contrast he sees HRC is holding onto hers solidly, with increased minority voting as well.

3. Indies would need to break big for Trump -- IIRC he said something like 20%. He is not seeing that, and noted Romney had that at only 7%.

He'll have more later today of course, so keep an eye on his final analysis after today's vote and whatever his weekend/Monday conclusions will be.

With that, I'm taking a break myself from ILX for the next few days; there's simply too much angst out there on the Net/media in general and it's frustrating me. Not being Pollyannaish in saying that, I just know when I need to cut things off. At this point I'm limiting myself to checking the Elections Project and Ralston Twitter feeds as well as some of their interactions. Do whatever you all have to and I'll see you at some point next week.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 14:43 (eight years ago)

a hoy hoy -

i've canvassed and a lot of it is just people that don't answer but there are on occaissions people who didn't know they could register same day, or didn't know the polling place, during the obama 1st election i canvasses a heavily somali immigrant neighborhood and i think we def gave ppl who aren't really very well integrated into society information about voting they wouldn't have had

was just a handful, but aggregate those potentially lost votes you turn into votes over a massive country like the u.s. and it makes a difference

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 4 November 2016 14:50 (eight years ago)

have some Aperol!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 14:52 (eight years ago)

don't know if this has been posted yet but this is insane

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/11/03/meet-donald-trump-s-top-fbi-fanboy.html

frogbs, Friday, 4 November 2016 14:52 (eight years ago)

fuck Giuliani

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 4 November 2016 14:56 (eight years ago)

ew

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 14:58 (eight years ago)

yeah it's posted upthread

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 14:58 (eight years ago)

For a sec that little image of Wayne Barrett made me think the article was written by Uncle Leo

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 15:02 (eight years ago)

Everyone involved with Trump makes me think of a murderer who is saturated with the blood and entrails of his latest victim and who excels at diverting people's attention to alleged jaywalkers and shoplifters because the glaring obviousness and extremity of his own crimes completely disables the critical faculties of all onlookers. They're all taking advantage of the cognitive dissonance induced by the belief that such people can't possibly be as brazenly corrupt and depraved as they seem.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Friday, 4 November 2016 15:20 (eight years ago)

Funny you should say that..

Considering the synergy with Gamergate, it's not entirely surprising that the latest thing to freak out the_donald is "what is art?"

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/comments/5b08cy/warning_graphic_i_dont_think_you_guys_appreciate/

― Andrew Farrell, Friday, 4 November 2016 12:27 (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

#spiritcooking is currently #1 trending on twitter, as far as I can tell. It might be fitting if the thing that pushes the US over the edge is a good old fashioned satanic panic.

Andrew Farrell, Friday, 4 November 2016 15:23 (eight years ago)

@mattyglesias
I suppose I would have more detachment from the practical stakes in the election if I lived in Brazil.

zing

mookieproof, Friday, 4 November 2016 15:28 (eight years ago)

spirit cooking honest to god just when i thought i couldn't be surprised by anything this election year

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 4 November 2016 15:33 (eight years ago)

Matt ArcoVerified account
‏@MatthewArco

BREAKING: Jury finds 2 former Christie aides guilty of ALL charges in #Bridgegate scandal.

Well, I guess THOSE two are off the transition team list.

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Friday, 4 November 2016 15:34 (eight years ago)

If only this had some effect on people...

https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold/status/794290164814270465

Now if it was about the Clinton Foundation we might have actually had some headlines!

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 15:41 (eight years ago)

Thanks for all your work here, Ned

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Friday, 4 November 2016 15:47 (eight years ago)

fucking spiritcooking smh! THEY ARE LITERAL SATANIST!! COMING HERE TO DESTROY CHRISTIAN AMERICA !!

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 4 November 2016 15:54 (eight years ago)

ok sign me up for that

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 4 November 2016 15:54 (eight years ago)

They're COOKING SPIRITS

I'm kinda morbidly curious to hear Trump's reaction to Marina Abramovic. If any Wikileaks email gets traction, let it be this.

jmm, Friday, 4 November 2016 15:59 (eight years ago)

Wang is still completely confident.

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/04/sound-bites-and-bug-bites/#more-18500

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 16:07 (eight years ago)

It's so weird to see given how the rest of the country/world is panicked about Trump's standing.

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 16:09 (eight years ago)

Thanks for all your work here, Ned

Thanks -- back briefly with a quick correction and update re NV voters. Enten noted in an exchange between Ralston and Trende: "Obama won unaffiliateds in NV by 10" as part of a larger discussion on HRC's advantage with those groups in some key states. Ralston quoted that and added (and one could, perhaps, extrapolate from this state as well):

I have seen data on indies in NV. Less white than ever before. Dems did not ignore them during reg drive.

File that away, and roll on Tuesday.

Ned Raggett, Friday, 4 November 2016 16:11 (eight years ago)

Charles Pierce on our cyberpunk future:

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a50320/trump-misinformation-facebook-macedonia/

Unemployed teenagers in Macedonia are monetizing horseshit Trump clickbait amongst clueless American supporters

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Friday, 4 November 2016 16:20 (eight years ago)

Cyberpunk present, I should say

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Friday, 4 November 2016 16:20 (eight years ago)

Florida's insidious solar polar ballot initiative:

http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/11/4/13485164/florida-amendment-1-explained

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Friday, 4 November 2016 16:31 (eight years ago)

Solar power, dammit

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Friday, 4 November 2016 16:32 (eight years ago)

xxpost We should all hold the upcoming Clinton administration's feet to the fire wrt the promotion of nationwide critical thinking educational initiatives in an attempt to curb the extent to which many Americans are devolving into overly-credulous protohominids who never question anything or anyone that spoonfeeds us what we want to hear.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Friday, 4 November 2016 16:34 (eight years ago)

are you drunk?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 16:37 (eight years ago)

when will people learn not to pre-order

AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 4 November 2016 16:40 (eight years ago)

meanwhile I take no comfort from this news but frogbs might:

A hint of momentum for Hillary Clinton has produced a 3-point race in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll results, with wide leads for the Democrat in trust to handle the economy and health care among likely voters focused on those two issues.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 16:40 (eight years ago)

xxpost Yes, but only since Trump secured the nomination.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Friday, 4 November 2016 16:41 (eight years ago)

what

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/3/13478042/third-party-clinton-vote-trading

, Friday, 4 November 2016 16:45 (eight years ago)

Anyone heard of this guy and is he full of it?

https://twitter.com/TrueFactsStated/

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 16:57 (eight years ago)

what he's saying is lining up with everyone else but the fact that there are many NDAs involved and the statement that it might not come out until after the election kinda kills my hopes

frogbs, Friday, 4 November 2016 17:02 (eight years ago)

If only some well-off benefactor (Mark Cuban) would agree to cover the costs associated with breaking an NDA (George Soros) so that these things could drop tonight.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Friday, 4 November 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

He's the first one (I've seen) to actually specifically/publicly mention the stories that have been massively teased and not yet released, which is why I was curious whether anyone knew him in general.

xp

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 17:27 (eight years ago)

Just sayin: if a Stein (or whoever) favoring voter in Florida or Ohio asked me to trade votes - i.e., they vote Clinton in exchange for me voting for Stein (or whoever), I would agree to the trade. And then I'd still vote for Clinton. Because fuck that whole nonsense.

pumpkin spice was the Spice Girl who died suspiciously (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 4 November 2016 17:42 (eight years ago)

Haven't found a headline corroborating this yet:

https://twitter.com/SubodhChandra/status/794579595362177024

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 17:44 (eight years ago)

seems to me the a flurry of bad polls consistent with statistical noise or response bias following the FBI news resulted in a dip in 7/8 of the forecasts and a plummet in 538, all of which are now turning round.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 4 November 2016 17:45 (eight years ago)

Aggregator models need to figure out a way to account for early voting. One of the candidates turning into a lizardbeast and feasting on the blood of innocent children tomorrow would probably cause his or her standing to dip. But in most cases it couldn't alter the already-cast votes.

pumpkin spice was the Spice Girl who died suspiciously (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, 4 November 2016 17:49 (eight years ago)

bet Subodh Chandra isn't even jewish.

more like dork enlightenment lol (Bananaman Begins), Friday, 4 November 2016 17:51 (eight years ago)

One of the candidates turning into a lizardbeast and feasting on the blood of innocent children tomorrow would probably cause his or her standing to dip.

depends which one tbh

Guayaquil (eephus!), Friday, 4 November 2016 17:57 (eight years ago)

Well, when that happens to Trump, his poll numbers will dip just slightly less than Clinton's will when the FBI finds the phone that Weiner's been hiding up his ass and which is loaded with George Clinton songs (clearly a heretofore unknown Clinton relative knee deep in scandal).

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Friday, 4 November 2016 18:02 (eight years ago)

Just sayin: if a Stein (or whoever) favoring voter in Florida or Ohio asked me to trade votes - i.e., they vote Clinton in exchange for me voting for Stein (or whoever), I would agree to the trade. And then I'd still vote for Clinton. Because fuck that whole nonsense.

― pumpkin spice was the Spice Girl who died suspiciously (Ye Mad Puffin), Friday, November 4, 2016 12:42 PM (thirty-five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Oh yeah, everyone is gonna do that.

But, shhh don't tell anyone.

I know hoes that know Ali Farka Toure (voodoo chili), Friday, 4 November 2016 18:20 (eight years ago)

Our fate was sealed long before November 8 (and not because the election is rigged)

Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Friday, 4 November 2016 18:35 (eight years ago)

when will people learn not to pre-order

Never. I NEED to get that pre-order bonus of my life is unsatisfactory. Otherwise I might have to wait till January before playing Civ VI as the Aztecs.

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Friday, 4 November 2016 18:35 (eight years ago)

Meanwhile, Scott Walker posted this, and the reaction was worthwhile:

https://twitter.com/scottwalker/status/794578578327371776

Scott Walker @ScottWalker

For 26 years, I've eaten 2 ham & cheese sandwiches nearly everyday. Like millions of Americans, I bring my own lunch to work.

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Friday, 4 November 2016 18:39 (eight years ago)

XPS Any excuse to repost...

http://67.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_luxo2vP3vQ1r533yoo1_500.jpg

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Friday, 4 November 2016 18:40 (eight years ago)

how you know 538 is broken this year: a s single C+ poll in utah, that is totally consistent with previous polling in utah (a state that is deep red and not like any other state) reduced clinton's chances by 1.5%

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Friday, 4 November 2016 18:41 (eight years ago)

man, scott walker's elevator does not go up to the top floor

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 4 November 2016 18:49 (eight years ago)

he is one of the more obviously stupid politicians. the word 'dullard' comes to mind and fits him to a T

global tetrahedron, Friday, 4 November 2016 18:56 (eight years ago)

how many pigs have been sacrificed to keep Scott Walker alive? #spiritcooking

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:00 (eight years ago)

he's certainly one of the ugliest. looks like someone hit him in the face 3-4 times with a shovel

flappy bird, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:03 (eight years ago)

@mattyglesias
I suppose I would have more detachment from the practical stakes in the election if I lived in Brazil.
zing

― mookieproof, Friday, November 4, 2016 11:28 AM (thirty-one minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

don't know the context but i'm assuming this is a zing on greenwald, who btw lives in brazil because when he met his spouse he couldn't move back to the US with him because of the defense of marriage act

k3vin k., Friday, 4 November 2016 19:04 (eight years ago)

http://vine.co/v/ewhOmJVeqhJ

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:05 (eight years ago)

Why have we let him get away with stealing the proper Scott Walker's name?

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:09 (eight years ago)

would like to take this opportunity to point out that the owner of america's beloved cubs is the main financier for goggle eyed humonculus scott walker

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:10 (eight years ago)

Scott Walker is the irl equivalent of a Rick Altergott character

Οὖτις, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:17 (eight years ago)

Why have we let him get away with stealing the proper Scott Walker's name?

http://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/oZ8AAOSw2s1Uz8qj/s-l300.jpg

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:21 (eight years ago)

xpost Also big Trump supporters, despite (or because of?) him threatening them.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:22 (eight years ago)

Cruz and Walker both mistakenly believe that wearing a suit will disguise the fact that they're descended from a Lovecraftian race of fish people.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

There's only one Scott Walker, and he was born Noel Scott Engel.

dan selzer, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

didn't Scott Walker have a briefly recurring role on Scooby Doo before entering politics?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xG1wuVE3RSY

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:30 (eight years ago)

True fact: Scott Walker had a secretary named Engel, and his secretary Engel has a cousin named Ted Cruz. And they all had an uncle who abused them named Donald Trump.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:32 (eight years ago)

wow – this thread has been relatively quiet. What gives? Everyone dead?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:40 (eight years ago)

there's a temporary restraining order on the thread due to excessive bed wetting

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:41 (eight years ago)

I was posting a bit earlier but none of it was juicy enough to warrant much discussion, apparently!

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:43 (eight years ago)

http://www.troll.me/images/little-girl-finger-crossed/waiting-for-the-drop.jpg

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:44 (eight years ago)

this election is worse than a bad Skrillex set

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:46 (eight years ago)

I mean, there were some solid articles released over the last day or two that would've probably sunk a candidate in any other election cycle, so...what do you even say at this point?

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:47 (eight years ago)

there's a temporary restraining order on the thread due to excessive bed wetting

― Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Friday, November 4, 2016 3:41 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Did we touch on the Donald Trump Jr. thing today?

how's life, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:47 (eight years ago)

does junior need some clean sheets?

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:48 (eight years ago)

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/heres-some-wholly-believable-donald-trump-jr-gossip-1788563032

how's life, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:49 (eight years ago)

Haha Aravosis with a solid burn here

https://i.imgur.com/f4Cbr44.png

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:49 (eight years ago)

if the drop doesn't drop within the hour we should just drop it, amirite?

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

wow, I was just trying to make a dumb joke, didn't realize just how goddamn right I was!

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:51 (eight years ago)

XD

how's life, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:52 (eight years ago)

i imagine this was covered yesterday?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/01/opinion/voting-suppression-videogame.html

mookieproof, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:52 (eight years ago)

r/the_donald update: they are apparently taking the devil-worshiping thing very seriously indeed. Is everyone on there just trolling? Maybe nobody supports Trump after all and it's all been a big wind-up?

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

nate silver is killing me

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

nah, they're just all insane

Xp

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

nate silver is killing me

― blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, November 4, 2016 3:55 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

http://election.princeton.edu/category/2016-election/

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:58 (eight years ago)

I have muted him for the next week at least, suggest you do the same

xxp

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Friday, 4 November 2016 19:58 (eight years ago)

Ohio Democratic Party wins hearing asking for restraining order against the Trump campaign and Roger Stone re: voter intimidation: http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/civil-rights-lawyer-tweets-voter-suppression-hearing-donald-trump

Embedded tweets in that story are great.

(((Subodh Chandra))) @SubodhChandra
US Dist Judge Gwin asks @realDonaldTrump lawyer to explain Trump's theory re voter fraud when voters provide ID & sign sheet. Lawyer can't.

(((Subodh Chandra))) @SubodhChandra
Judge Gwin to Trump lawyer: what's the purpose of Trump's statements if not to stir up voters to intimidate voters? Trump lawyer babbles.

(((Subodh Chandra))) @SubodhChandra
Trump lawyer claim Trump's voter-fraud message happens all the time. Judge Gwin demands example. Trump lawyer walks back the claim.

FWIW the Democratic party apparently has about 500 poll observers certified in Cuyahoga County. According to the "Protect the Vote" program director I spoke to when getting certified, the Republicans applied for 350 credentials but they don't believe they have anywhere near that many people.

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Friday, 4 November 2016 19:58 (eight years ago)


if the drop doesn't drop within the hour we should just drop it, amirite?

― never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Friday, November 4, 2016 12:50 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

There's no drop, the HRC would have released it within a week after the final debate if there was. Whatever the drop is, my guess is there just isn't enough evidence to warrant publishing for any credible org

intheblanks, Friday, 4 November 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

I just wanted to see his campaign implode. It would make me so happy.

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 20:06 (eight years ago)

NOVEMBER SHOCKER
CLINTON GETS OVER ELECTORCAL COLLEGE HUMP AFTER TRUMP DUMP BUMP

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Friday, 4 November 2016 20:08 (eight years ago)

Oh shit http://guardian.ng/news/chinas-monkey-king-picks-trump-as-next-us-president/

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Friday, 4 November 2016 20:08 (eight years ago)

This video of Brian Williams, of all people, sticking a fork in Mark Halperin's guts is so great:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/brian-williams-mark-halperin-optimistic-trump-coverage

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Friday, 4 November 2016 20:41 (eight years ago)

So where da trump dump at?

plums (a hoy hoy), Friday, 4 November 2016 20:55 (eight years ago)

@DavidCornDC
EXCLUSIVE: The Democratic National Committee Has Told the FBI It Found Evidence Its HQ Was Bugged

by the FBI, probably

mookieproof, Friday, 4 November 2016 21:09 (eight years ago)

wow i just look at 538 nowcast for the first time in two weeks and i kind of want to open my veins

flappy bird, Friday, 4 November 2016 21:14 (eight years ago)

Here, watch this instead:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7op92W7voE

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 21:15 (eight years ago)

Can't stop thinking about the monkey king

flappy bird, Friday, 4 November 2016 21:27 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwcjTUyWEAAcnG6.jpg

Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Friday, 4 November 2016 21:29 (eight years ago)

yeah i think that pretty much settles it for me. good luck usa xp

(•̪●) (carne asada), Friday, 4 November 2016 21:29 (eight years ago)

I cant wait to hear stories on Wednesday about Scott Walker and Ted Cruz going to New Hampshire. This shit is never over.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 4 November 2016 21:36 (eight years ago)

Still unclear about something: if a candidate does not release their tax returns, and then is elected president, can they legally still keep those returns secret?

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 22:15 (eight years ago)

if trump becomes president there will be no more laws, you fool

akm, Friday, 4 November 2016 22:19 (eight years ago)

you probably can't break a law that doesn't exist

AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 4 November 2016 22:22 (eight years ago)

ie. everyone saying "this should be illegal!" doesn't make necessarily omething a law

AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, 4 November 2016 22:23 (eight years ago)

What I meant was, if someone becomes president and refuses to reveal their tax returns, can they get away with it? Or does that fall into the public domain, considering the IRS and other such agencies are part of the government and Tax Returns part classified or anything, per se.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 22:28 (eight years ago)

Sorry for phone text jumble.

Josh in Chicago, Friday, 4 November 2016 22:29 (eight years ago)

I said publicly I would hold my nose and vote for Trump and, if he won, I would hold my breath.

so I guess one upside of a trump win is that ari fleischer will die of asphyxiation shortly after the announcement

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 4 November 2016 22:31 (eight years ago)

I grudgingly respect Ari Fleishcer bc he went out there every day and lied his fucking nuts off for the bush administration with a straight face for like 5 years.

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 4 November 2016 22:35 (eight years ago)

I grudgingly respect John Wayne Gacy because he went out there every day and was a pillar of the community while corpses rotted under his house

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Friday, 4 November 2016 22:39 (eight years ago)

Theres no legal requirement for any individual, including presidents, to release their tax returns to the public. All presidents since Carter have released their returns in order to allay/preempt suspicions of self-dealing.

publicity hungry, opportunistic, disgruntled former employee (Sanpaku), Friday, 4 November 2016 22:40 (eight years ago)

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/794673780501061633

surprise! Rick Wilson was probably full of shit all along

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Friday, 4 November 2016 22:59 (eight years ago)

basically "u mad?" the twitter thread

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:00 (eight years ago)

So ZS' oppo dump is basically the only thing that can save the world from prez Trump. Bring it, gif dude!

Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:05 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwWIbJ1W8AACDKR.jpg

His own bloody books. Sad!

Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:06 (eight years ago)

Always be closing!

nickn, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:08 (eight years ago)

I don't understand why Rick wouldn't be able to say what the oppo was supposed to be? Is there any harm in it living in his twitter history as an "unfounded rumor" status until it can be verified?

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:16 (eight years ago)

This has easily been the dumbest plot line of the election.

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:18 (eight years ago)

Rick Wilson's Opportunity Dump is the name of his new cable show

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:23 (eight years ago)

https://mobile.twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/794653546171994113

Evan, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:27 (eight years ago)

if only there were some hackers in the US that could hack into Russia's servers

Οὖτις, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:28 (eight years ago)

our hackers just can't hack it anymore! Sad!

Οὖτις, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:29 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/rudygiulianiGOP/status/794651467680542721

Οὖτις, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:29 (eight years ago)

This has easily been the dumbest plot line of the election.

Co-sign. I'm embarrassed by the three or four days I followed that obnoxious clown on Twitter. I hope Ned's doing okay in light of this news...

Davey D, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:30 (eight years ago)

Are you all worried again

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:30 (eight years ago)

Jesus
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/donald-trump-rape-lawsuit-dropped-230770

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:31 (eight years ago)

everything's coming up Trump!

except for the election

Οὖτις, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:36 (eight years ago)

I wonder what kind of stunt Trump has planned the night before the election.

rap is dad (it's a boy!), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:38 (eight years ago)

He's gonna lose bad

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:38 (eight years ago)

Abolish the electoral college, pt. 851:

http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation-politics/washington-state-elector-says-he-wont-vote-for-clinton/

Davey D, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:40 (eight years ago)

this smug prick should just vote for himself

Robert Satiacum, a member of Washington’s Puyallup Tribe, supported Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary. He said he believes Clinton is a “criminal” who doesn’t care enough about American Indians and “she’s done nothing but flip back and forth.”

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:41 (eight years ago)

"American Indians"

Οὖτις, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:43 (eight years ago)

Why the scare quotes Shakey

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:43 (eight years ago)

We found him: the ultimate BernieBro

Davey D, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:44 (eight years ago)

Why the scare quotes Shakey

― slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Friday, November 4, 2016 6:43 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

srsly

jason waterfalls (gbx), Friday, 4 November 2016 23:48 (eight years ago)

My understanding is that is not the preferred nomenclature

Xp

Οὖτις, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:53 (eight years ago)

c'mon ari, it's obviously Here’s how I figured out for whom to vote

mookieproof, Friday, 4 November 2016 23:54 (eight years ago)

the associated press stylebook says to use "american indian," so that is prob why you still see it in news stories

(The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Saturday, 5 November 2016 00:03 (eight years ago)

There's plenty of ongoing debate about nomenclature:
http://indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com/2015/05/21/blackhorse-do-you-prefer-native-american-or-american-indian-6-prominent-voices-respond

Wozniak on Kimye's Baby (jaymc), Saturday, 5 November 2016 00:07 (eight years ago)

the term is also used by the census bureau, there's a federal "bureau of indian affairs," lots of indigenous ppl themselves prefer it to "native american," etc.

(The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Saturday, 5 November 2016 00:09 (eight years ago)

time for another maths problem surely

mark s, Saturday, 5 November 2016 00:10 (eight years ago)

i've also been seeing "cleveland indians" a lot lately

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Saturday, 5 November 2016 00:29 (eight years ago)

can we please dispense with the idea that betting markets are the best way to judge the potential outcome of an election? god this is some 1936 literary digest poll bullshit.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Saturday, 5 November 2016 00:53 (eight years ago)

go make yourself some money then

k3vin k., Saturday, 5 November 2016 00:54 (eight years ago)

The Jay Z show for Hillary in Ohio is streaming, if anyone cares.

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Saturday, 5 November 2016 01:06 (eight years ago)

Um, this set seems to have entered a Big Sean stretch, so maybe hold off for a bit

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Saturday, 5 November 2016 01:10 (eight years ago)

(I don't mind Big Sean, but c'mon)

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Saturday, 5 November 2016 01:15 (eight years ago)

CHANCE

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Saturday, 5 November 2016 01:21 (eight years ago)

awww did i miss chance? i saw the coloring book tour a couple weeks ago & it was super fun

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Saturday, 5 November 2016 01:45 (eight years ago)

surowiecki-chait fite (over modifiers)

mookieproof, Saturday, 5 November 2016 01:46 (eight years ago)

Ok I read up on the spirit cooking thing.

How the fuck does this satanic panic horseshit square with the ostensibly nietszchean ethos of so many of these alt right dudes?

his eye is on despair-o (Jon not Jon), Saturday, 5 November 2016 01:56 (eight years ago)

ok finally read the wash post on this spirit cooking thing myself. i totally ignored this assuming it was anti catholic bigotry tbh

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Saturday, 5 November 2016 02:01 (eight years ago)

BEYONCE

is kendrick there?

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Saturday, 5 November 2016 02:02 (eight years ago)

Xpost it's more like classic blood libel stuff

his eye is on despair-o (Jon not Jon), Saturday, 5 November 2016 02:05 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwdoNQcWQAA2H-G.jpg

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Saturday, 5 November 2016 02:14 (eight years ago)

jay-z: the next president of the united states, hillary clinton
airhorn: BEW BEW BEW BEWWWWW

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Saturday, 5 November 2016 02:21 (eight years ago)

seeing the three of them on stage together is a trip

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Saturday, 5 November 2016 02:21 (eight years ago)

"thanks to chance the rapper, j cole, and big sean"

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Saturday, 5 November 2016 02:22 (eight years ago)

Hilldawg's next mixtape while be straight fire

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Saturday, 5 November 2016 02:22 (eight years ago)

hillary clinton: "chance the rapper & j. cole & big sean"

xpost lol

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Saturday, 5 November 2016 02:22 (eight years ago)

hillary is v lit rn

k3vin k., Saturday, 5 November 2016 02:25 (eight years ago)

hehehe hillary is so uncool <3 are there any pix of her with chance? that's what i want

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Saturday, 5 November 2016 02:26 (eight years ago)

the real hillary

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwcjHFAXAAAa8EH.jpg

FREE BRADY (daria-g), Saturday, 5 November 2016 03:02 (eight years ago)

skim milk is otm

mookieproof, Saturday, 5 November 2016 03:07 (eight years ago)

Another of this election's many ironies, contradictions, maddening hypocrisies: Clinton gets pilloried for having a private email server that hypothetically might have been susceptible to hacking, so ... they air out all her emails publicly, to make sure there is nothing damning there. Meanwhile, this is an election year where many non-private government servers actually *have* been hacked or are under threat of hack, specifically from state sponsors with ties to her opponent. And yet it's the vagaries of her private server, which seems the least of the aforementioned, that moves polls. I mean, fuck a poll, but that's still so crazy. Even when he loses we'll still be living in a world of illogic and idiocy.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 03:20 (eight years ago)

Anyway, barring a blowout we may be looking at the distinct possibility of a one-term Clinton, since there's no way she's going to build up much momentum in office after this relentless shitstorm. So ... that's a mere 4-years away, which means her future is likely in the hands of the usual potential pres. GOP suspects, right? So does that essentially mean 4 more years of perpetual campaign on the part of the same contingent of dickheads and dorks? It's going to be a long few years. Not sure I can take it if it's been like the last couple.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 03:26 (eight years ago)

I'm arguing with a friend who believes the worst of HRC: "Bill Clinton raided the foundation, which was always used as a front, for personal cash, they took foreign campaign donations (which is illegal), and rerouted them through the foundation, she colluded with the DNC and journalists, there was pay-to-play setups between her, dictators and foreign businesspeople, she has extremely unsavoury business ties, and was funding ISIS via foreign businesspeople and states, as a means to pressure Assad into building a pipeline through Syria."

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 5 November 2016 03:26 (eight years ago)

Sounds reasonable, better keep digging until they find proof.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 03:40 (eight years ago)

Nice to see Hillary and Monica getting along so nicely these days.

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Saturday, 5 November 2016 03:43 (eight years ago)

HRC will be popular and win a second term in a walk against like Nikki Haley

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Saturday, 5 November 2016 03:53 (eight years ago)

hot take: u r right

6 god none the richer (m bison), Saturday, 5 November 2016 03:53 (eight years ago)

altho i dont see haley getting the nom unless the gop is able to top-down restructure the nominating process.

6 god none the richer (m bison), Saturday, 5 November 2016 03:54 (eight years ago)

This election has the mainstream pundits so confused and depressed. They can't seem to construct a satisfying narrative out of it to save their souls -- to the point where they've almost lost the will to live. This is largely based on the fact that their narrative cannot possibly be that Trump is reaping the votes of aggressively ignorant, racist and misogynist voters, and Hillary is going to win in a walk because Trump is a horrifying person who cannot scrape up quite enough of these voters to win. But nothing else fits the facts.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Saturday, 5 November 2016 03:57 (eight years ago)

Haley is a squish. I'm looking at Gowdy or some other hero of the right, because lol @ the GOP learning any sort of lesson.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Saturday, 5 November 2016 04:01 (eight years ago)

Can we dispense with parsing trump's supporters' particular awful qualities and just lay them on the table as people whose hearts are full of hate?

hardcore dilettante, Saturday, 5 November 2016 04:03 (eight years ago)

The other key to the election is that republicans are at an ever growing electoral disadvantage. They only maintain any political power at all through gerrymandering, disenfranchisement, intimidation, and legislative stonewalling. None of those will help in the long run.

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Saturday, 5 November 2016 04:06 (eight years ago)

they control most of the state legislatures and governorships. and it only takes one mistake to take the presidency

mookieproof, Saturday, 5 November 2016 04:09 (eight years ago)

None of those will help in the long run.

"In the long run, we're all dead."

-- John Maynard Keynes --

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Saturday, 5 November 2016 04:09 (eight years ago)

New open source reproducible poll aggregator: http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html

Uses Stan, and is based on Drew Linzer's (votamatic.org) Daily Kos aggregator, which I feel is unfairly neglected (probably because DK is so explicitly partisan--I don't know why he chose to throw in with them). In my opinion, this is what the state of the art looks like. Still doesn't account for 3rd party candidates, though, which is my biggest concern (since my gut says most of Johnson's supporters will end up breaking for Trump).

Dan I., Saturday, 5 November 2016 04:10 (eight years ago)

They can't seem to construct a satisfying narrative out of it to save their souls -- to the point where they've almost lost the will to live. This is largely based on the fact that their narrative cannot possibly be that Trump is reaping the votes of aggressively ignorant, racist and misogynist voter

I think it's related, per that great, great Vox piece, to the fact that, exactly, the overwhelming narrative to the Trump campaign *has* been one of nativism and white nationalism, and there is just no policy proposal or budget or health plan than can placate those who cannot be placated. What do you say to someone who says the sky is green against all objective criteria? Or more to the point, someone who absolutely hates the color green. This whole campaign has been a struggle to make sense of something senseless - racism, which fits no political narrative. That's as depressing as it gets.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 04:25 (eight years ago)

omfg 8:20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXH5agV7skw

flappy bird, Saturday, 5 November 2016 04:37 (eight years ago)

omfg 8:20

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xXH5agV7skw

― flappy bird, Saturday, November 5, 2016 12:37 AM (ten minutes ago)

alfred: 8:50

k3vin k., Saturday, 5 November 2016 04:48 (eight years ago)

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/02/alabama_secretary_of_state_says_more_voting_would_cheapen_the_work_of_civil.html
was this mentioned upthread? Fuck this guy.

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Saturday, 5 November 2016 10:01 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cwf2c65XAAAIxDy.jpg

Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Saturday, 5 November 2016 12:17 (eight years ago)

They're both as bad as each othzzzzz

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Saturday, 5 November 2016 12:22 (eight years ago)

i don't see what german fetish porn has to do with this election

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Saturday, 5 November 2016 12:29 (eight years ago)

supposedly Nate Silver took a swipe at PEC on a podcast. maybe we'll get a nerd fistfight on Tuesday.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 5 November 2016 12:33 (eight years ago)

lol and Drew Linzer basically questioning the 'point' he made in his last article:

https://twitter.com/DrewLinzer?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw (latest tweet)

Neanderthal, Saturday, 5 November 2016 12:37 (eight years ago)

these definitely aren't the rumored "oppo dumps" (which as expected, never materialized - gg Rick), nor will they make a diff at this point, but....these dropped:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/11/05/national-enquirer-donald-trump-karen-mcdougal-melania-trump/93340860/ (I mean if grabbing women by the pussy didn't kill him, why would this)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/11/04/melania-trump-undocumented-work/93321114/ (this was hinted at months ago, only now just confirmed - more just an 'lol irony' thing than anything)

Neanderthal, Saturday, 5 November 2016 12:55 (eight years ago)

Melania Trump, everybody, the anti-bullying illegal immigrant third wife of an anti immigrant bully.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 13:39 (eight years ago)

Wow, look at D vs R early voting results for NV and NC. Still think a lot of "independent" voters voted Trump, but the Dem edge is getting pretty big! I had no idea until recently that early votes made up such a large proportion of the overall vote total in some states.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fz_V3oAUL8XJMEudq5wm5hDT_f554uagt6sIm_sJDro/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

Dan I., Saturday, 5 November 2016 14:32 (eight years ago)

the idea of an "Election Day" has become obsolete.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 5 November 2016 14:32 (eight years ago)

my boss made me travel during election day so I had no choice. Happier though - nothing is worse than being buried in work and then having a panic moment when you realize "I haven't voted yet!" and seeing no way to step away to go to the polls.

absentee balloting is fun too but I always have a shred of nervousness that a raccoon is going to break into the mail unit and eat my ballot

Neanderthal, Saturday, 5 November 2016 14:38 (eight years ago)

raccoons are breaking for Trump iirc

marzipandemonium (Ye Mad Puffin), Saturday, 5 November 2016 14:53 (eight years ago)

Attacks in melania's immigration status are misguided. Aside from the fact that she's a somewhat sympathetic figure, she's not what the right means when they talk about illegal immigration. It's not about white Europeans stealing our modelling jobs. Of course, the right's fears are ridiculous and racist, but this is just an air-swipe at the people Hillary wants to target. People don't care about hypocrisy if the action that reveals the double standard is something they don't think matters.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Saturday, 5 November 2016 14:59 (eight years ago)

Hillary didn't have anything to do with this news fwiw.

it's a weak story, yes - one that barely made any ripples when it first surfaced months ago.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 5 November 2016 15:04 (eight years ago)

we were deprived of the dump

Neanderthal, Saturday, 5 November 2016 15:04 (eight years ago)

Oh, I know it had nothing to do with Hillary, it's just weak mustard.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Saturday, 5 November 2016 15:06 (eight years ago)

Oh, we've gotten our dump. They've been dumping on us for months. This whole election has been one big dump.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 15:20 (eight years ago)

Kinda wish they woulda just held the Access Hollywood story until this week

Neanderthal, Saturday, 5 November 2016 15:21 (eight years ago)

Met my mum and her partner (in Scotland, natch) for lunch today. Mentioned how much I wanted Tuesday to come. When I explained that was the date of the election my mum said 'already? That snuck up fast!' Good lord!

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Saturday, 5 November 2016 15:23 (eight years ago)

All these out-of-work groundskeepers getting discouraged competing for modelling jobs.

how's life, Saturday, 5 November 2016 15:25 (eight years ago)

I kind of want to make a site that asks who you want to win, then it tells you that they will win.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Saturday, 5 November 2016 15:34 (eight years ago)

the idea of an "Election Day" has become obsolete.

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, November 5, 2016 2:32 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I've seen footage of massively long waits from previous elections. People having to spend 3 hours and upwards in the polling stations. Is this a reaction against that and likely to mean that voting on election day isn't as painful?

Stevolende, Saturday, 5 November 2016 15:36 (eight years ago)

kinda surprised that Trump didn't go with the "plant" accusation. I suppose that's not visceral enough for a rally audience. but I'll give the alt-right 5 minutes before they've 'figured' this one out

http://www.vox.com/2016/11/5/13533468/trump-obama-protester

acerbic (sic)s (will), Saturday, 5 November 2016 15:45 (eight years ago)

xpost for me, that's definitely it, though my precincts never had long lines. my early voting line was about 2 hours long in 2012, but I early-voted at a library in a very Black area that was very enthusiastic for Obama (it was kind of cool - being in the line felt like being at a pep rally). I stood so long on the concrete that I got a pinched nerve.

Neanderthal, Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:10 (eight years ago)

in 2008, there was a veteran in full gear standing outside the voting line sarcastically telling everybody leaving "You're welcome".

Neanderthal, Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:11 (eight years ago)

Haha, that's kind of funny. I once wanted to make an inverse war memorial with the names of every combat aged man on it, which would have been fairly passive aggressive, I think. I meant it well - look at the opportunity you have, but it would have come across as sarcastic.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:14 (eight years ago)

that would be a huge-assed memorial!

Neanderthal, Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:16 (eight years ago)

Yeah - I lived in a wee village of mostly old folks at the time, but even so.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:19 (eight years ago)

Good, scary piece:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/05/opinion/beyond-lying-donald-trumps-authoritarian-reality.html

Telling citation:

In “Origins of Totalitarianism,” Hannah Arendt writes:

Like the earlier mob leaders, the spokesmen for totalitarian movements possessed an unerring instinct for anything that ordinary party propaganda or public opinion did not care to touch. Everything hidden, everything passed over in silence, became of major significance, regardless of its own intrinsic importance. The mob really believed that truth was whatever respectable society had hypocritically passed over, or covered with corruption … The modern masses do not believe in anything visible, in the reality of their own experience … What convinces masses are not facts, and not even invented facts, but only the consistency of the system of which they are presumably part.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:20 (eight years ago)

But what else is new, right? Anyway, from a friend of a friend:

"I have a friend monitoring the polls (legally) in Nevada. She says the lines are 2-3 hrs long and 80% latino and black. She is volunteering with Trump supporters and they are furious."

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:23 (eight years ago)

Jon Ralston update

Final (almost) NV early #s are in:
Trump is dead.
GOP in big trouble in #nvsen, two House seats and #nvleg control.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:44 (eight years ago)

talk dirty to me baby

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:46 (eight years ago)

oh yeah

sleeve, Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:47 (eight years ago)

WEDNESDAY IS COMING

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:48 (eight years ago)

we need a recovery thread

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:49 (eight years ago)

if NV goes Hillary and it's still light red on 538 nate is gonna have a lot of splainin to do

Mordy, Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:52 (eight years ago)

honestly i could see that happening with several states. i think silver can too and is working to set up a "why this year is different" kind of frame, so people don't see his wrong predictions and go "clearly his previous accuracy was just a fluke" etc.

dustalo springsteen (Doctor Casino), Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:56 (eight years ago)

Friend of mine went to vote today in Lorain Co., OH and was in line behind this guy. She reported him to a poll worker for an electioneering violation and they made him take it off.

https://scontent-ord1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p296x100/14639704_10154555798961425_6027763467883842342_n.jpg?oh=0da869581ba6f28150965c3b355cd138&oe=588F23E6

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Saturday, 5 November 2016 16:56 (eight years ago)

supposedly Nate Silver took a swipe at PEC on a podcast. maybe we'll get a nerd fistfight on Tuesday.

― Neanderthal, Saturday, November 5, 2016 8:33 AM (four hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/794582428228714497

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:02 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/794607665036955648 etc.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:02 (eight years ago)

i'd report him for the egregious t-shirt over the white long sleeve shirt fashion violation

nomar, Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:03 (eight years ago)

honestly i could see that happening with several states. i think silver can too and is working to set up a "why this year is different" kind of frame, so people don't see his wrong predictions and go "clearly his previous accuracy was just a fluke" etc.

1. if other ppl forecast it correctly 'this year is different' is going to sound hollow
2. not sure about how this works in forecasting but i'd think a 90% prediction that comes true is more valuable than a 60% prediction that comes true? isn't higher confidence justified by the results a better forecast?

Mordy, Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:05 (eight years ago)

Uh p. sure Rothschild wrong about state level polling not being valuable tho--isn't that related to how BLUPs "borrow strength" in hierarchical models?

Dan I., Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:17 (eight years ago)

i think he means that some state polls should not be moving the overall forecast - like any C+ rated poll showing Hillary down in Utah. why would that have anything to tell us about FL, NV, OH, PA, or NH?

Mordy, Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:18 (eight years ago)

State level in solid red states I mean, informing estimates in swing states xpost

Dan I., Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:18 (eight years ago)

Any time people start talking about what's going to happen after Clinton wins I really feel like telling them to go outside turn around three times spit on the ground and curse

Dan I., Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:23 (eight years ago)

It's literally 49.8% Hillary - I think Nate might take you aside and with the use of a simple coin take some money off you.

Andrew Farrell, Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:28 (eight years ago)

w/ the information i have i'd be willing to put down some money at 1:1 odds that hillary wins NV sure

Mordy, Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:29 (eight years ago)

Bookmakers currently have longer odds on her winning the election than winning Nevada.

Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:31 (eight years ago)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-37885105

So creepy. I mean...ugh. You can tell he was integral to his children's upbringings.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:40 (eight years ago)

Remind me again, how can they tell who is going for what candidate in early voting? Is it just based on party registration and a few other assumptions?

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:46 (eight years ago)

worst part is all those people in the audience shooting vertical video tbh xp

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:48 (eight years ago)

xxpost OTOH, I admire the restraint he showed in not unhinging his jaw and swallowing that baby whole. He knows a little something about suppressing his baser urges in order to maintain his public image.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Saturday, 5 November 2016 17:48 (eight years ago)

hi!

In Miami-Dade, voters have headed to the polls in record numbers: Through Friday, 648,000 voters already cast ballots — a sign that the total turnout for this presidential election will likely surpass that in 2012. That year, more than 879,000 voters cast ballots in both early and Election Day voting.

And while the razor thin margin of how many Democrats and Republicans have voted so far shifts from day to day, the tally favored the Democrats in Saturday morning reports.

Both sides have declared that they have the decisive edge heading into the final weekend before Election Day

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article112771418.html#storylink=cpy

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 5 November 2016 18:03 (eight years ago)

More:

Clinton's good standing with Hispanic voters also is favoring the three Democratic candidates to the Senate in the crucial states. The Univision Noticias poll shows the three are winning the Hispanic vote over their Republican opponents, including incumbents John McCain and Marco Rubio. If the elections were held today, Ann Kirkpatrick would win 56 percent of the Hispanic vote in Arizona and McCain would win 36 percent. Catherine Cortez Masto, hoping to become the first Hispanic woman in the senate, would win 67 percent of the Hispanic vote in Nevada and John Heck would win 20 percent. Both are running for the seat vacated by Harry Reid, a Democrat. In Florida, Patrick Murphy would win 50 percent of the Hispanic vote while Rubio, a Cuban American Republican, would win 44 percent.

http://www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/poll-hispanics-not-behind-rubio-in-florida-battle-turn-to-murphy?hootPostID=e49558af9357cad5559c21fb3c5f1f22

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 5 November 2016 18:21 (eight years ago)

Rubio losing would almost be as sweet as when Santorum washed out

(Pun not intended, possibly)

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Saturday, 5 November 2016 18:54 (eight years ago)

Clinton has won. I want the Plankton with a Hairpiece's scalp on my wall.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:03 (eight years ago)

Don't speak too soon, maybe the FBI will find an old Christmas card sent using an unsecured mailbox 30 years ago and her polls will drop by another 500 points.

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:06 (eight years ago)

Too late!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:07 (eight years ago)

"Too close to call" according to the UK media. (Well, Sky News)

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:36 (eight years ago)

Eh, I'll call it. Please forward my response.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:39 (eight years ago)

They've got to keep the pot boiling over here.

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:41 (eight years ago)

aye, it's not like there's anything newsworthy going on over here

yokohama fuckdolphin (bizarro gazzara), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:43 (eight years ago)

PEC has chance of Clinton winning at either 98% or greater than 99%, depending on whether you analyze based on a random drift or Bayesian model. Also, Sam Wang promises to eat a bug if Trump wins more than 240 electoral college votes.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:45 (eight years ago)

This year's Screenwipe is gunna be something, isn't it

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:47 (eight years ago)

He has to rename it Screendump... surely?

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

If you can find an establishment Republican who thinks Trump is anything but a complete disaster, take a picture -- in 4 days they'll all swear they were against him all the way.

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:50 (eight years ago)

in four days the GOP will return to making plans to lock up Hillary Clinton and keeping the Supreme Court at eight justices.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:51 (eight years ago)

Maybe the chants of "lock her up" just meant "give her a lock on the election."

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:53 (eight years ago)

It'll be like this whole thing never happened. Except for the fading Trump bumper stickers that will join rebel flags as abiding middle fingers on pickup trucks across America.

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:53 (eight years ago)

guys

spirit cooking

SPIRIT COOKING

goole, Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:54 (eight years ago)

Yeah

I'm having trouble with that one still

his eye is on despair-o (Jon not Jon), Saturday, 5 November 2016 19:55 (eight years ago)

No one would ever think to combine those two words in that order, unless they wished to refer to a ritual that 99.9% of Americans had never heard of until a few days ago. It's obvious, if you think about it. What else could "spirit cooking" invoke, if not Satanist cultic ceremonies?

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:00 (eight years ago)

i voted

difficult listening hour, Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:05 (eight years ago)

Surely there are decals of Trump as Calvin peeing on the American flag

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:13 (eight years ago)

"Spirit cooking" makes me think of choosing what booze to braise your dinner in

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:15 (eight years ago)

Nate Silver getting tetchy

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/794994593574113282

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:17 (eight years ago)

"Spirit Cooking" sounds like the name of some unreleased Live album. Or hell, maybe one they released, who the hell knows.

Josh in Chicago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:17 (eight years ago)

Nate's right though, that huffpo guy's criticisms are really, really stupid.

Dan I., Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:22 (eight years ago)

yup

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:30 (eight years ago)

can't be more moronic than this comment:

Jason Cole ‏@JasonColeBR 13m13 minutes ago

@berkeley223 @NateSilver538 can't wait to see post-election analysis of voter participation. This election creates interest, maybe not votes

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:35 (eight years ago)

we're going to know in a few days whose model best predicted the results. the lashing out makes it sound like nate doesn't have that much confidence in his model otherwise he'd just be saying wait and see.

Mordy, Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:41 (eight years ago)

So if/when Hillary gets sworn in (::goes outside, turns around 3 times, spits on the ground and curses::), what kind of role will Bill end up playing? Traditionally the First Partners have chosen a pet project and mostly stuck with that for their time in the WH but it seems like Bill would be a bit more influential, no?

Fetchboy, Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:50 (eight years ago)

Why is Trump coming to Minnesota to hold a rally that conflicts with a Vikings home game?

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:52 (eight years ago)

Xpost bill looks pretty frail though

his eye is on despair-o (Jon not Jon), Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:53 (eight years ago)

Why is Trump coming to Minnesota to hold a rally that conflicts with a Vikings home game?

― blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Saturday, November 5, 2016 3:52 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

because he is a dumb idiot

jason waterfalls (gbx), Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:55 (eight years ago)

Did they come up with a pronounceable acronym for Bill's forthcoming role yet? FMOTUS, FGOTUS

Stevolende, Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:57 (eight years ago)

GTFOUS

6 god none the richer (m bison), Saturday, 5 November 2016 20:59 (eight years ago)

Bill Clinton is going to die in 2019

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Saturday, 5 November 2016 21:52 (eight years ago)

why are you giving Morbs a reason to check this thread?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Saturday, 5 November 2016 21:54 (eight years ago)

omgggg the spirit cooking thing is about marina abramovic lmao

http://truthfeed.com/breaking-clinton-foundation-paid-occult-spirit-cooking-priestess-10k-for-operational-support/34116/

goole, Saturday, 5 November 2016 22:17 (eight years ago)

yes, you're a day late on all that

also hillary will suicide bill in February 2017

akm, Saturday, 5 November 2016 22:29 (eight years ago)

Lol sorry map

Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Saturday, 5 November 2016 22:39 (eight years ago)

absolutely nothing to be sorry about

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Saturday, 5 November 2016 22:46 (eight years ago)

maven attracted person

imago, Saturday, 5 November 2016 22:49 (eight years ago)

oh they are convinced; there is something on reddit about connections to some woman (US Baptist) who got kids out of haiti who they've now convinced themselves was smuggling children into a pedophile ring for bill

akm, Saturday, 5 November 2016 22:53 (eight years ago)

Lol sorry map

Uh, yeah.... I'd like to see this keyword in context.

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Saturday, 5 November 2016 23:05 (eight years ago)

https://i.redd.it/u08lteb3j4vx.jpg

how's life, Saturday, 5 November 2016 23:11 (eight years ago)

O SNAP

MatthewK, Saturday, 5 November 2016 23:42 (eight years ago)

oh they are convinced; there is something on reddit about connections to some woman (US Baptist) who got kids out of haiti who they've now convinced themselves was smuggling children into a pedophile ring for bill

This was a bizarre story at the time. A group of missionaries tried to illegally smuggle 33 kids from Haiti to the Dominican Republic and, when caught, claimed they were taking them to an orphanage they were building in a converted hotel on the other side of the border. It turned out that not all the kids were orphans and their local legal representative was wanted for sex trafficking. It was assumed locally that they were planning to send them for adoption overseas. Clinton appears to have interceded on their behalf but that's pretty much what you would expect the state department to do for ten Americans in a Haitian jail.

Bubba H.O.T.A.P.E (ShariVari), Saturday, 5 November 2016 23:57 (eight years ago)

Nate Silver is really going off on that huffpo writer

flappy bird, Saturday, 5 November 2016 23:57 (eight years ago)

What are the odds?

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 6 November 2016 00:01 (eight years ago)

I expect Nate's reputation is now worth a lot of money to him. He has reason to protect it.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 6 November 2016 00:03 (eight years ago)

He has to rename it Screendump... surely?

It hasn't been called Screenwipe since 2008 so I doubt it

sad, hombres (sic), Sunday, 6 November 2016 00:07 (eight years ago)

Arsewipe?

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Sunday, 6 November 2016 00:17 (eight years ago)

I think it's a conclusion we'll have all come to over the last while, but it's worth saying: Fuck Wikileaks.

https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/794450623404113920

Andrew Farrell, Sunday, 6 November 2016 01:22 (eight years ago)

Looking at that, it feels like tuning into a crazy TV show for the first time at the end of the third season or so and thinking, boy, what did I miss?

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 6 November 2016 01:32 (eight years ago)

I mean I had concluded that Fuck Wikileaks when international playboy Julian Assange let Chelsea Manning go rot in jail while he hid out from rape charges in an Embassy

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Sunday, 6 November 2016 01:33 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bk1wUKoXL20

marzipandemonium (Ye Mad Puffin), Sunday, 6 November 2016 01:39 (eight years ago)

This happened.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/05/politics/trump-rushed-off-stage-at-campaign-rally/

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Sunday, 6 November 2016 02:56 (eight years ago)

Loved this little thing that one of the LGM bloggers posted today, that he heard from a woman while out doing GOTV:

Look, I get it, you white people* had a hard time with Obama being president so you need to racist president. I get it. I don’t like it but I get it. But what I don’t get is why you needed a racist who is so goddamn crazy and stupid! Couldn’t you find a racist who could actually know how to run the damn government? I mean, I wouldn’t vote for him–he’d still be bad for people like me–but at least he’d know what he’s doing? What good does it do the damn white people when Trump shits the bed? It’s not like there’s some other special country they move to when he takes this country down. We get a black president and he does a pretty good job, and your response is murder-suicide? You white people need to get smarter about how you do this racism thing.

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Sunday, 6 November 2016 03:08 (eight years ago)

Lucky for all of us other white people, who recognize a walking catastrophe when we see one, the crazy racist won't be given a chance to shit the bed.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 6 November 2016 03:12 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/CSUProf/status/795010621175644160

Evan, Sunday, 6 November 2016 03:29 (eight years ago)

god, fuck the Trump campaign. normally I'd feel some sympathy for such a legitimately scary situation but as usual the Trump campaign spread a total lie that this was an "assassination attempt" by a Hillary supporter (despite the man having no gun and a "Republicans against Trump" sign) which got the crowd nice 'n fired up, apparently resulting in a CNN reporter getting roughed up. fucking deplorable is right.

frogbs, Sunday, 6 November 2016 03:29 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cwhx2KVVIAA1425.jpg

Evan, Sunday, 6 November 2016 03:29 (eight years ago)

http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2016/nov/03/election-commissioner-in-pb-accused-of-/?f=news-arkansas#/

Victor Johnson -- no relation to Jefferson County Clerk Patricia Johnson -- said through his attorney Wednesday that he was deterred from voting early because of intimidation by Jefferson County Board of Election Commissioner Stu Soffer. Soffer applied to be a poll watcher Oct. 18 and in that capacity "interfered and intimidated voters" from casting ballots, the plaintiffs' attorney Chris Burks said.

"Mr. Soffer stood in the doorway of the early-voting location and told voters to shut up and go home," Burks said. "This is deeply troubling to the voters of Jefferson County and also to the election administrators whose job it is to administer the elections free of fear and intimidation."

Soffer referred questions Wednesday to attorney George Ritter, who represents the Republican Party of Arkansas, another defendant in the suit. Ritter did not respond to a message left on his phone.

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Sunday, 6 November 2016 04:11 (eight years ago)

trump's not really a "liar" though in the way those other politicians are. trump doesn't care about getting caught. the truth is irrelevant to him -- he's all about the narrative. if i needed to pick a technical term it would be andy kauffman terrorist nightmare person.

Treeship, Sunday, 6 November 2016 04:37 (eight years ago)

i think that's why he is seen as "trustworthy" and a "straight shooter." he isn't sneaky about his lying -- everything is on the surface.

Treeship, Sunday, 6 November 2016 04:39 (eight years ago)

Yes "tells it like it is" is really just him lying very confidently.

Evan, Sunday, 6 November 2016 05:04 (eight years ago)

He's a liar, but he's our liar.

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 6 November 2016 05:39 (eight years ago)

Local polling here in Orange County, CA has the democratic challenger ahead of Rohrabacher 47%/43%. OC continuing to turn blue.

Elvis Telecom, Sunday, 6 November 2016 08:02 (eight years ago)

At some point, I'm wondering how many more stories we're gunna here of somebody just straight-out elbowing a motherfucker who's blocking them at a ballot site.

Not entirely out of hate or anyway, but more of a "get the fuck out my way, asshole"

And because we live in this modern world, shit's gunna be on camera

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Sunday, 6 November 2016 08:33 (eight years ago)

It hasn't been called Screenwipe since 2008 so I doubt it

Whatever; just get a Diane Morgan character on camera along with the show's director , Barry Shitpeas , and I'll be happy and tell everyone else to torrent it over here

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Sunday, 6 November 2016 08:59 (eight years ago)

More on the protester at Trump's rally last night. Seems like a nice guy.

Trump protester: I was beaten for holding a 'Republicans against Trump' sign

publicity hungry, opportunistic, disgruntled former employee (Sanpaku), Sunday, 6 November 2016 12:08 (eight years ago)

Ohhh, I hope that guy gets lots of press. I can imagine his story might give a good number of on-the-fence Trump voters pause. THIS COULD BE YOU.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Sunday, 6 November 2016 14:06 (eight years ago)

The War Room Criterion is on Hulu, really fascinating to watch.

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Sunday, 6 November 2016 14:11 (eight years ago)

Great film.

Cliché of the moment: "inside straight." God forbid Mark Halperin's 2016 election book is called Inside Straight.

clemenza, Sunday, 6 November 2016 14:19 (eight years ago)

The War Room is great

flappy bird, Sunday, 6 November 2016 14:58 (eight years ago)

The Halperin/Heilmann book of 2016 will be called CLOWN CAR

flappy bird, Sunday, 6 November 2016 14:59 (eight years ago)

James Carville is one of the great characters in the history of America

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Sunday, 6 November 2016 15:23 (eight years ago)

This Week predictions encouraging: the Republican pollster had Clinton with 320+, Matthew Dowd had her at 341, and while Alex Castellanos (who has one or two famously creepy ads on his résumé, but I actually find he can be funny) said Trump at 286, he mentioned a "secret magical Trump vote" and bust out laughing.

clemenza, Sunday, 6 November 2016 16:03 (eight years ago)

The crowd turned its attention to the protester, screaming and booing at the man. Obama repeatedly told the irate crowd to "focus" and to "settle down."

"Everybody sit down and be quiet for a second!" Obama said. "You've got an older gentleman who is supporting his candidate," he said as the protester was led away.

"We live in a country that respects free speech," he said. "It looks like he might have served in our military – we’ve got to respect that."

In Trump's version, Obama scolded the protester, not the crowd.

"He was talking to the protester, screaming at him, really screaming at him," Trump said.

"By the way, if I spoke the way Obama spoke to that protester they would say, ‘He became unhinged,’” Trump said.

Treeship, Sunday, 6 November 2016 16:45 (eight years ago)

That's not active lying, I think he really saw & heard the video that way.

flappy bird, Sunday, 6 November 2016 16:52 (eight years ago)

I'd agree, to a point - it's the interpretation of a viewer of the Obama video based on paying maybe 40% attention while being distracted by 4-5 other things, then drawing a false conclusion.

Also:

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/donald-trump-is-going-to-get-his-ass-kicked-on-tuesday-1788618628

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:03 (eight years ago)

we're going to know in a few days whose model best predicted the results. the lashing out makes it sound like nate doesn't have that much confidence in his model otherwise he'd just be saying wait and see.

― Mordy, Saturday, November 5, 2016 4:41 PM (yesterday)

btw...no we're not

k3vin k., Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:23 (eight years ago)

if hillary wins and nate had her at 60-70% to win while another projection system had her at 90% to win, that doesn't make the latter "more right"

k3vin k., Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

first of all a higher confidence prediction is worth more than a lower confidence one. second of all we will be able to determine by the states and by the margin (by state and nationally).

Mordy, Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:27 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pyEvEBSv79Y

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:29 (eight years ago)

xpost True, but if one is more convincing at a state-by-state level - who won which states, what the margins were, it may suggest that one model was better at modeling what it was intended to model. But yes, since their prediction is really a statement of a set of probabilities, a different result doesn't mean the model was "wrong."

dustalo springsteen (Doctor Casino), Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:30 (eight years ago)

if 7/8 of the models listed here http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html predict every state correctly (in the sense of assigning > 50% to the actual winner) and 538 doesn't then it does make them more right.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:32 (eight years ago)

there are other ways of defining "predict correctly" (e.g. national popular vote, per state margin, etc.). the point is, we're not stuck saying "they all said clinton would probably win the electoral college so *shrug*".

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:33 (eight years ago)

get owned nate

flappy bird, Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:40 (eight years ago)

heh http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/07/us/politics/donald-trump-presidential-race.html

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:55 (eight years ago)

Mr. Trump, who does not use a computer, rails against the campaign’s expenditure of tens of millions on digital ads, skeptical that spots he never sees could have any effect.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:56 (eight years ago)

His polished older daughter, Ivanka, sat for a commercial intended to appeal to suburban women who have recoiled from her father’s incendiary language. But she discouraged the campaign from promoting the ad in news releases, fearing that her high-profile association with the campaign would damage the businesses that bear her name.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 17:57 (eight years ago)


And they know that his chances of winning the election are iffy. But they maintain that there is unseen money and muscle behind his political operation — and a level of sophistication that outsiders, and people who have run traditional campaigns, cannot fully appreciate.

At times, however, that is hard to detect. Over a cheeseburger, fried calamari and an “Ivanka Salad” at the Trump Grill in the basement of Trump Tower last week, several aides flipped open a laptop and loaded the popular website 270towin.com, which allows users to create their own winning electoral maps.

For 10 minutes, they clicked through the country, putting Democratic-leaning states won by Mr. Obama four years ago, like New Mexico and Colorado, into Mr. Trump’s column.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:01 (eight years ago)

http://www.theonion.com/article/trump-makes-last-minute-push-appeal-whites-54601

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:03 (eight years ago)

Lol @ bannon catching on fire

Οὖτις, Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:04 (eight years ago)

Liar liar.

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:07 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwluOeaXcAAPubL.jpg

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:16 (eight years ago)

first of all a higher confidence prediction is worth more than a lower confidence one.

Worth more to who? How can these points be cashed in? If I claim that a given coin flip will be 100% guaranteed to be heads and you say it's 50/50, it doesn't make me more correct if the coin does come up heads.

Andrew Farrell, Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:22 (eight years ago)

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z43/sevenarts/cinema/filmsilove/cometodaddy6.jpg

later at the same rally

dustalo springsteen (Doctor Casino), Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:27 (eight years ago)

xp a model that correctly predicts 50 coin tosses in a row with 100% confidence has a quantifiably more accurate model (in terms of, e.g. cross entropy, or any other standard way of optimizing or post facto measuring model performance) than someone who predicts 50 coin tosses in a row with 51% confidence.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:30 (eight years ago)

it doesn't win you any more at the bookies, but it does suggest model A can be relied upon more strongly than model B next time.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:30 (eight years ago)

a higher confidence prediction is worth more than a lower confidence one.

If I claim that a given coin flip will be 100% guaranteed to be heads and you say it's 50/50, it doesn't make me more correct if the coin does come up heads.

I suspect each of you is defining 'confidence' differently.

In the loosest sense of the word, one's confidence may be high, based on nothing more than a strong desire to believe in its correctness. But I doubt that was how Mordy was using the word. If one's confidence is based on a tested methodology for evaluating evidence, because it consistently generates more accurate predictions, then one's confidence is based on the measured accuracy of past obtained results, and such higher confidence predictions are indeed more valuable.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:33 (eight years ago)

Last two elections he "predicted every state correctly" - will he be able to do this again or not? Will another site do this? -> this is not really how it works, of course, but this is the story the media will run with.

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:35 (eight years ago)

I wonder if this was part of the oppo dump and I wonder if the second part of this story is that he made her have an abortion

http://fusion.net/story/366599/national-enquirer-playboy-donald-trump/

akm, Sunday, 6 November 2016 18:58 (eight years ago)

i don't really see how news of an affair would matter when his previous affairs are already on record and we've heard him, on tape, brag about assaulting women.

Treeship, Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:02 (eight years ago)

what's with this recurring donald trump abortion fantasy y'all keep having

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:07 (eight years ago)

The real scandal here is the the right's paper of record is no longer trustworthy.

Zachary Taylor, Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:07 (eight years ago)

i can't believe this is real

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeQOJZ-QzBk

global tetrahedron, Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:09 (eight years ago)

Presumably, the Playmate thing was a consensual affair, and thus far less damaging than his sexual assaults. The speculation about an abortion is just speculation, but given the willful blindness already demonstrated by most of Trump's evangelical supporters, an abortion would probably be excused, too, on the grounds that it was perfectly legal and Christian charity requires forgiveness when the sinner expresses contrition.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:11 (eight years ago)

Fairly annoyed by this article which people are sharing on facebook - https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/calm-down-well-be-fine-no-matter-who-wins/2016/11/04/e5ca3c32-a2d3-11e6-a44d-cc2898cfab06_story.html

Camaraderie at Arms Length, Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:17 (eight years ago)

(xposts) I don't have sound right now, but I've come across more than one reference to Trump naming Citizen Kane as his favourite film. Which makes sense thematically, but it astounds me that he'd name anything that good.

clemenza, Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:19 (eight years ago)

If HRC wins, we'll have dire legislative and budgetary gridlock. If Trump wins, we'll get something far more chaotic, disruptive and unpredictable, but guaranteed to be deeply reactionary and regressive no matter what the details are. Neither quite fits my idea of "we'll be fine".

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

Lots of articles out there comparing Trump and Kane. It wouldn't surprise me if Trump likes that kind of mythic association and wouldn't hesitate to encourage it.

jmm, Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:28 (eight years ago)

"what's with this recurring donald trump abortion fantasy y'all keep having"

it's speculation only in that conversations between wilson and someone else said the opposition research would have evangelicals abandoning him in droves; so it's hard to think of what would do that short of an abortion. or a spirit cooking dinner, apparently.

akm, Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:37 (eight years ago)

BREAKING: Trump's entire adult life is actually a very long-running Marina Abramović performance. Early estimates anticipate a movement in the polls of .02-.05%.

dustalo springsteen (Doctor Casino), Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:41 (eight years ago)

Trump being involved with an abortion wouldn't be much of a big deal because many people, whatever their stated values, get abortions. The ones who profess to be against abortions keep them private, which is absolutely their right, and they know full well that their fellow anti-choice people do the same thing. the evangelicals would not abandon a candidate who'd been involved with an abortion as long as he continues to toe the line about reversing roe v. wade, which is a non-starter anyway and is only there to get votes/donations.

However, people (Wilson, probably) who don't realize that abortion's a football and that the most Republicans ever plan on legislating about it is making it harder for poor people to get them might actually think it'd be a dealbreaker. But it wouldn't be.

though she denies it to the press, (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Sunday, 6 November 2016 19:48 (eight years ago)

Well that was fun Comey, thanks for the past 9 days!

"[the FBI] has not changed its conclusions expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.”

http://fox6now.com/2016/11/06/new-letter-from-fbi-director-fbi-has-not-changed-conclusion-on-clinton-emails-from-july/

Davey D, Sunday, 6 November 2016 20:33 (eight years ago)

he says citizen kane because it's the Best Movie, xps

difficult listening hour, Sunday, 6 November 2016 20:51 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/SmellTheTea/status/795367193852579840

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 21:11 (eight years ago)

Republicans before: boo, we hate the FBI director!
Republicans last week: we love the FBI director!
Republicans now: boo, we hate the FBI director!

Josh in Chicago, Sunday, 6 November 2016 21:20 (eight years ago)

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-09/donald-trump-is-a-yuge-movie-star

“a tub of horses” (Myonga Vön Bontee), Sunday, 6 November 2016 21:23 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PABOf09aes

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Sunday, 6 November 2016 21:30 (eight years ago)

Obama should book a club tour and just keep clowning Trump even after Clinton wins, maybe for a week or two

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Sunday, 6 November 2016 21:35 (eight years ago)

gotta say that even with all the rancor between the aggregators, I feel pretty good that the most pessimistic site is still giving HRC 2:1 odds right before the election. Went canvassing in AZ both today and yesterday, which definitely put me in a calmer state of mind.

intheblanks, Sunday, 6 November 2016 21:37 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/StoneColdTruth/status/795341764076929024

Before this image made no sense. Now it makes sense in a most terrible way. #cheesepizza #spiritcooking #hotdognobun #StopTheCoven #junkfood

I still don't get it, tbh

soref, Sunday, 6 November 2016 21:38 (eight years ago)

I will never be able to unsee...whatever that was

Crazy Eddie & Jesus the Kid (Raymond Cummings), Sunday, 6 November 2016 21:41 (eight years ago)

Yeah, I don't get it. I agree that a hot dog with no bun is clearly satanic, but why cheese pizza?

jmm, Sunday, 6 November 2016 21:46 (eight years ago)

BREAKING: EURASIA NOW AT WAR WITH EASTASIA

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Sunday, 6 November 2016 21:46 (eight years ago)

Nah, Eurasia has ALWAYS been at war with Eastasia.

MatthewK, Sunday, 6 November 2016 22:15 (eight years ago)

Obama should book a club tour and just keep clowning Trump even after Clinton wins, maybe for a week or two

would put my whole family into debt to see this show tbh

though she denies it to the press, (Joan Crawford Loves Chachi), Sunday, 6 November 2016 22:24 (eight years ago)

Saw a good review doco last night on the candidates which opened with Obama's relentless humiliation of Trump at the 2011 Correspondents' Dinner, suggesting it tipped him over the edge. I hadn't remembered how HARD he went after him.

MatthewK, Sunday, 6 November 2016 22:29 (eight years ago)

Sounds like the Frontline episode.

Ⓓⓡ. (Johnny Fever), Sunday, 6 November 2016 22:31 (eight years ago)

That birther shit he shoveled out would make me want to go hard, too.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Sunday, 6 November 2016 22:31 (eight years ago)

skirting dangerously close to obama/trump slashfic here

pow! right in the jefferies tube! (bizarro gazzara), Sunday, 6 November 2016 22:35 (eight years ago)

"Grab 'em by the birth certificate!"

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Sunday, 6 November 2016 22:50 (eight years ago)

Saw a good review doco last night on the candidates which opened with Obama's relentless humiliation of Trump at the 2011 Correspondents' Dinner, suggesting it tipped him over the edge. I hadn't remembered how HARD he went after him.

― MatthewK, Sunday, November 6, 2016 5:29 PM (twenty-three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

https://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/how-the-haters-made-trump?utm_term=.ulY1ARVWv#.omOX1L8a5

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 22:53 (eight years ago)

xp a model that correctly predicts 50 coin tosses in a row with 100% confidence has a quantifiably more accurate model (in terms of, e.g. cross entropy, or any other standard way of optimizing or post facto measuring model performance) than someone who predicts 50 coin tosses in a row with 51% confidence.

Yes, but we're discussing one coin tossed once. Which a presidential election is like, particularly this one.

I suspect each of you is defining 'confidence' differently.

Not to be insulting to Mordy, but I assume he just means the number is higher: if I say there's a 75% chance of something happening and you say there's an 80% chance, you have a higher confidence.

Andrew Farrell, Sunday, 6 November 2016 23:28 (eight years ago)

Yes, but we're discussing one coin tossed once. Which a presidential election is like, particularly this one.

there are 50 states. the forecasts we're talking about comparing make predictions about all of them. we can also use those, assuming you agree that a forecast that predicts 50 states and the electoral college is better than one that predicts 45 states and the electoral college.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 23:31 (eight years ago)

xp that's correct -i was speaking sloppily and did not mean a confidence interval. i just meant that a strong prediction that something will occur that is proven is a better prediction than a weak prediction that something will occur that is also proven. i haven't studied stats since college and i wasn't very good at them then either, but i do understand that in science the more specific the falsifiable claim the better. between someone who says the chance of something happening is 51/49 and someone who says it is 99/1 - both may turn out to be correct but the latter is [presumably] the better prediction. otherwise you couldn't make any evaluation at all - after all if the 49% event happened the 99/1 forecaster could just shrug and say this turned out to be in the 1%. that's kinda the argument Nate likes to push a lot (33% events happen a lot! we should be wrong X% of the time!) but that seems pretty convenient to someone whose predictions turn out to be a) an outlier b) wrong.

Mordy, Sunday, 6 November 2016 23:40 (eight years ago)

xp p.s. if a forecast predict fraction of the vote as well as outcomes (at a national or state level), you can also consider those in measuring performance. in fact that's precisely what 538, NYT, etc did when they backtesting and tune parameters (as that huffpo article spectacularly fails to get). point being, there are lots more ways to measure performance than "did they get the EC right", and they're not BS, they're literally how they do things internally with historical data.

finding something that predicts the general election outcome is pretty easy since there is only one every 4 years (S&P 500 in the 3 months before the general predicts like the last 6 elections, iirc). the hard thing is finding something that _continues_ to predict the election in the future, and one of the ways you know you've got that is you predict the outcome in detail. it's reasonable to measure this.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 23:47 (eight years ago)

if a forecast predicts* fraction
what 538, NYT, etc did when they were* backtesting and tuning*

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 23:48 (eight years ago)

the forecasts we're talking about

That's not what we're talking about, though. kevin said "if hillary wins and nate had her at 60-70% to win while another projection system had her at 90% to win, that doesn't make the latter 'more right'" and Mordy said "first of all a higher confidence prediction is worth more than a lower confidence one", which is what I was responding to.

xpost - I'm not sure what you mean by a better prediction there? Are you saying the hypothetical person who insists that the coin always lands heads is right if you toss a coin and it does?

Andrew Farrell, Sunday, 6 November 2016 23:52 (eight years ago)

ah right yes that's true.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Sunday, 6 November 2016 23:53 (eight years ago)

we know the odds on a coin. we don't know the odds on who is going to win the election. if we both make a model and i add a ton of uncertainty to mine to try to model things like a) the polling might be wrong and b) there are a lot of undecideds, etc, and i say X has a 51% chance to win the election and then you model it and you don't add those things and your model says X has a 99% chance to win the election. if X wins the election we were both right but let's be honest a 51% prediction has almost null value predictively. it might make sense within the paradigm of bayesian forecasting that you're using and /accurate/ to your assumptions but the entire game is about getting the answer right. we don't live in a universe where we can replay the election 1000 times to see if my 51% prediction was really only right 51% of the time. but we do live in a universe where using the same data one pollster was very aggressive about their prediction and one was not. i think from a value perspective the aggressive prediction is more valuable.

Mordy, Sunday, 6 November 2016 23:57 (eight years ago)

like in finance maybe yr model is actually perfect and you were right that in most universes X stock falls today and i was wrong that in most universes is rises - but if the stock rises today then you're out of money. how else can we measure the value of predictions except by whether they come true (and how certain you are that they will)? otherwise you can predict whatever you want and if you turn out to be wrong you can just shrug and say that in Z% of universes i was bound to be wrong so really if we check out all the parallel universes you'll see that i made the right call.

Mordy, Sunday, 6 November 2016 23:59 (eight years ago)

mordy you are discovering one of the many reasons why frequentism is bad and bayesianism is good.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 7 November 2016 00:11 (eight years ago)

i know v few ppl collect their paychecks in parallel universes

the kids are alt right (darraghmac), Monday, 7 November 2016 00:15 (eight years ago)

We've got a syndicate.

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 7 November 2016 00:16 (eight years ago)

Oh those tweets about Comey's latest letter today--

FBI Director Comey knows Trump is going to win. He isn't charging Hillary, so Obama can't pardon her.

curmudgeon, Monday, 7 November 2016 00:44 (eight years ago)

...image above spurred me to write the following (warning - long-ish!):

The most prevalent manifestation of racism in the public sphere these days comes in a form not unlike the response of a child who doesn’t want to hear the arguments of a sibling: the hands are raised to cover both ears, the eyes close, and the mouth blabs…”blablablabla I don’t hear you blablabla”…to drown out all intelligible statements.

I don’t know who within the Trump campaign or alt-right universe came up with the slogan emblazoned across the banner above, but I saw the same sign/banner combo several times yesterday in southern NH, and it was more ten times more efficient than a stop at Dunkin’s in terms of renewing my energy for the evening canvassing push. It’s obvious to everyone what the banner mis -echoes, and obvious though it is, it needs to be called out for what it is: white nationalism, unfurled.

The Black Lives Matter phrase entered the national conversation in the summer of 2013, to the best of my knowledge. The proximate cause of its emergence was the killing of Trayvon Martin, but Trayvon was of course just one of countless unarmed others killed because of his skin color. Since then, the slogan has been adapted and appropriated by others, who wish, judo-style, to turn the formulation’s energy elsewhere, to deflect, neutralize, and erase its force. “All lives matter.” “Blue lives matter.” And now, “Her lies matter”.

Let’s pause for a moment and take stock of what these rhetorical counters are doing, and how they function. “Black Lives Matter” to begin with, is an affirmation in the face of erasure. It is an affirmation and rendering into voice in the face of the deepest pain. It also represents the nth attempt to speak to others, to have one’s being, one’s experience, one’s humanity recognized, and included in the circle of humans that should be considered and treated as being worth recognized as such.

The response to this plea? All lives matter. Blue lives matter. Her lies matter.

Let’s break it down further. “All lives matter” and “Blue lives matter” constituted direct retorts to the original declaration. I’m tempted to write that they were “in dialogue” with the declaration, but they so willfully misconstrue its point and ignore its context that dialogue is hardly the fitting description. “Her lies matter” however, doesn’t engage that particular conversation at even that level of directness. It coyly pretends to change the subject: “we’re not talking about lives that matter now, get it? We’re taking about lies that matter.” Except, of course, it is still addressing the subject. Every time “black lives matter” gets “adapted” by those whom it irritates, it is being dismissed and figuratively spat upon. “Her lies matter.” Ha ha. So clever. We all get it. You’re taking words that were formed in a crucible of love and pain and fury and were turned into teaching and change, but you’re using them for your own purposes, as a political slogan (to serve the candidate of white nationalism) and not-so-inside joke (to mock #BLM). There are hundreds of catchy slogans you could come up with to talk about the rival candidates’ lies (never mind your candidate’s lies, but that’s a tome unto itself), but this is the one you choose to reproduce, enlarge, and starkly display as a catchphrase in the thoroughfares of New Hampshire, to thrill your supporters and troll the libs.

I’m not interested in being offended by things like this. They’re designed to offend and demean, that’s predictable enough. No, I’m interested in staying alert. History has a way of turning suddenly ugly, and before you know it, there it is, like the future in Orwell’s 1984, “a boot stamping on a human face—forever.”

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Monday, 7 November 2016 00:52 (eight years ago)

sorry that was longish-er than i thought!

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Monday, 7 November 2016 01:00 (eight years ago)

y'all need to watch this. sorry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeQOJZ-QzBk

global tetrahedron, Monday, 7 November 2016 01:08 (eight years ago)

best thing ive read about this election i think xp

the kids are alt right (darraghmac), Monday, 7 November 2016 01:09 (eight years ago)

wow that's amazing xp it's so tragic that he's such a piece of shit and he knows, or knew for even a tiny moment, that he was miserable bc wealth isolates and destroys you and still that knowledge wasn't enough to save him

Mordy, Monday, 7 November 2016 01:11 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/795369503995678720

NBC's Pete Williams reports that nearly all of the e-mails found on the Weiner laptop were duplicates of e-mails FBI already reviewed.

curmudgeon, Monday, 7 November 2016 01:12 (eight years ago)

I'm surprised there doesn't seem to be as much relief as I thought there'd be about Comey today (on here, on my Facebook wall). The general feeling seems to be that the damage was done and can't be undone because of early voting.

Wouldn't early voters be primarily convinced voters? If someone, for reasons that escape me, was still hedging, wouldn't they be more inclined to wait until Tuesday to vote? In which case news that comes out today is still relevant.

clemenza, Monday, 7 November 2016 01:24 (eight years ago)

Anticipating a cordial entente between the Clinton Administration II and the FBI.

MatthewK, Monday, 7 November 2016 01:24 (eight years ago)

I don't think that's how it's going to go. Mainly because the DOJ and legislative oversight committees (cf. Franken's comments) are going to go to town between next week and February. Won't be much left to fuss over.

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 7 November 2016 01:28 (eight years ago)

thanks darraghmac :-)

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Monday, 7 November 2016 01:29 (eight years ago)

The damage was done because it kept the news cycle completely on Clinton's problems, keeping Trump scandal free for the last two weeks of the election. It gave Republicans shamed by the assault tape an out to change the subject and vote against the corrupt lady.

Frederik B, Monday, 7 November 2016 01:30 (eight years ago)

yeah the comey thing was never concerning in-and-of-itself - it became clear pretty quickly that they had no idea what was in the emails and didn't even have a warrant to look at them yet. the concerning thing is that a. it won't matter, too many americans believe that smoke always means fire, and b. that it indicated that the FBI (or at least segments of it) was nakedly partisan and trying to manipulate the election.

Mordy, Monday, 7 November 2016 01:34 (eight years ago)

Re: the latter - i guess the FBI isnt *totally* incompetent after all

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 01:37 (eight years ago)

Trump (and moreso his team) did his bit by shutting the fuck up.

/r/the_donald, who I am not above admitting I hate-read for an hour or so earlier, seem convinced there's still an investigation into the Clinton Foundation ongoing, and that will take her down if she reaches office. They largely seem to have come to the conclusion I did earlier re: Fuck Wikileaks.

Andrew Farrell, Monday, 7 November 2016 01:38 (eight years ago)

I was never for a sec worried that Comey's bullshit would keep HRC from becoming president; what worried me then and now is the effect on the Senate. I'm still calling the Senate for the Dems with +1 Kaine.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 01:41 (eight years ago)

The problem with b. isn't so much that the parts of the FBI is partisan, we knew that already, remember the many many leaks about the Clinton case last summer, which were constantly debunked shortly afterwards? People in the FBI was spreading misinformation to hurt Hillary Clinton back then as well. The problem was that that story became so obvious, the battle became between the Democrats and the assholes in the FBI almost trying to do a coup, which left Trump on the sidelines able to do his thing with no pushback. It's a nightmare story, and for fucks sake I hope Comey knows he has to clean his shit up after the election.

Frederik B, Monday, 7 November 2016 01:41 (eight years ago)

Lol comey is not going to do that

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 02:14 (eight years ago)

he has no reason to

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 02:16 (eight years ago)

https://m.facebook.com/notes/george-berry/is-538s-forecast-being-driven-by-trendline-assumptions/10154601683865135/ this is good

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 7 November 2016 02:35 (eight years ago)

spoilers for Doctor Strange

dustalo springsteen (Doctor Casino), Monday, 7 November 2016 03:21 (eight years ago)

I said something similar already but the nymag political shop needs to get thrown out by the neck. "According to Politico" please stop

According to Politico, the memo written by Clinton aide Doug Band details how “helpful” hedge fund billionaire Marc Lasry has been “on a number of fronts” that include “killing potential unfavorable stories in the Enquirer.”

ELECTION (no comey I) (El Tomboto), Monday, 7 November 2016 04:10 (eight years ago)

"According to the Politico's reporting on the Enquirer..."

I've had people take issue when I claimed Politico was a right-wing source. It certainly used to seem like that but I don't pay much attention any more. Is there really an argument that it's moderate or "balanced" now? Of course Im a guy who thinks the NYT is relatively right-wing, I'm probably not the best objective judge of these things.

viborg, Monday, 7 November 2016 04:46 (eight years ago)

it's like an insider beltway rag sheet - i think it's probably hostile/dismissive of interests on both the right + left

Mordy, Monday, 7 November 2016 04:51 (eight years ago)

nyt op-ed pages are pretty moderate i'd think - maybe douthat + brooks are more genteel republican sorts which makes them kind of left-wing by contemporary reactionary nativist standards but then by that measure so is commentary + national review. i think nyt really tries to be a lot of things to a lot of different interest groups and kinda has an ongoing crisis of identity like ask a hardcore zionist and a hardcore palestinian activist who nyt is biased against get two diametrically opposed responses.

Mordy, Monday, 7 November 2016 04:53 (eight years ago)

They certainly gave Judith Miller plenty of rope to run with before they finally cut her loose. I have a hard time letting those kind of bygones go by.

viborg, Monday, 7 November 2016 05:00 (eight years ago)

Just wanted to record the following Trump nickname for posterity: CHEETO BENITO.

jane burkini (suzy), Monday, 7 November 2016 07:09 (eight years ago)

👍

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Monday, 7 November 2016 07:10 (eight years ago)

https://polls.pizza/

'Americans are hungry for democracy and are turning out in record numbers to vote. But that means long lines and sometimes empty stomachs, which might discourage these brave patriots from performing their civic duty.

Fortunately Pizza to the Polls is here to deliver the one thing that pairs so perfectly with freedom: piping hot 'za. Send us reports of long lines and we'll send in the delicious reinforcements.'

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Monday, 7 November 2016 09:23 (eight years ago)

Anyone who abbreviates pizza like that should be strung up next to Trump

I hear from this arsehole again, he's going in the river (James Morrison), Monday, 7 November 2016 09:37 (eight years ago)

STOP TRYING TO MAKE 'ZA HAPPEN.

jane burkini (suzy), Monday, 7 November 2016 09:48 (eight years ago)

scrabble accepts it, so, done

Nhex, Monday, 7 November 2016 09:57 (eight years ago)

Yeah, we lose za the next thing you know xu, qi and hm also become toss-ups and there's a really danger you lose the board.

Michael Jones, Monday, 7 November 2016 10:09 (eight years ago)

Make apostrophes great again

Elvis Telecom, Monday, 7 November 2016 10:17 (eight years ago)

Yeah, we lose za the next thing you know xu, qi and hm also become toss-ups and there's a really danger you lose the board.

a terrifying series of 10-point swings

Bein' Sean Bean (LocalGarda), Monday, 7 November 2016 11:56 (eight years ago)

Only D[own]BALLOT across two triple-word squares can save us now.

Michael Jones, Monday, 7 November 2016 12:03 (eight years ago)

It should not have been surprising that most of the emails were duplicates on Weiner's laptop as email systems usually work with a parent child setup, where a copy is on the server and a copy on the local client. Every time the laptop hits a network with the email system, it syncs up and passes new messages down and uploads outgoing messages.

If anything that should be some further proof that there are not as many missing emails as the alarmists proved, here is a laptop and we had these messages none were deleted from the server. If you would have found a local archive of messages that were also not on the server and had been deleted, that would have been more proof of tampering, but it wasn't there. Not that any reasonable explanation has any bearing, in the fog of conspiracy.

earlnash, Monday, 7 November 2016 12:19 (eight years ago)

I hope that someone gets to the bottom of it as soon as possible.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 12:39 (eight years ago)

Huff Post just moved Tennessee into the blue column based on no apparent data points at all. The curve just hooked up away from all the +ve Trump data points. It's been like that for an hour now. They better fix it before someone thinks this is evidence of "rigging".

Michael Jones, Monday, 7 November 2016 12:39 (eight years ago)

Chinese scrabble must be either really easy or really hard.

Frederik B, Monday, 7 November 2016 13:14 (eight years ago)

Lots more tiles.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Monday, 7 November 2016 13:49 (eight years ago)

This probably ain't true but http://occupydemocrats.com/2016/11/06/fbi-director-comey-just-put-trump-sign-front-lawn/

Is that my hand, manatee? (stevie), Monday, 7 November 2016 14:02 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwlA5SNXUAAz_Pp.jpg

This Dutch cover of last weekend deserves to be here tbh

Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Monday, 7 November 2016 14:10 (eight years ago)

(headline: 'after the blow')

Trump le Monde (Le Bateau Ivre), Monday, 7 November 2016 14:10 (eight years ago)

I searched for talk of this sequel and can't find it, so I hope this hasn't been went over a few times

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0PGI16p8Lg

Is Trump really the only one who can get her water back? Five fucking years!

Robert Adam Gilmour, Monday, 7 November 2016 14:12 (eight years ago)

"One will take you to nuclear war...but he would probably press the button anyway". In today's American tourists talk to scots about politics. To be fair, talked to a very nice guy who was very pro Hillary, had been to one of obama's victory party and had arranged one here for US expats.

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Monday, 7 November 2016 14:49 (eight years ago)

http://www.nick.com/kids-pick-the-president/

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 15:21 (eight years ago)

(Spoiler: HRC wins)

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 15:21 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/Deadspin/status/795520378122735616

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Monday, 7 November 2016 15:42 (eight years ago)

L'CHAIM

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Monday, 7 November 2016 15:42 (eight years ago)

priceless

i've watched a lot of cats do weird and interesting things (slothroprhymes), Monday, 7 November 2016 15:52 (eight years ago)

http://www.tcj.com/jonah-kinigsteins-savage-trump/
http://images.tcj.com/2016/10/Kinig-Trump-9-650x856.jpg

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Monday, 7 November 2016 15:57 (eight years ago)

i hadn't even heard of the first documentary (you've been trumped), interesting. wiki said the director said the second one would be out by the election, doesn't look like it made it

akm, Monday, 7 November 2016 16:05 (eight years ago)

annnnnnd as of a few minutes ago, 538's map has flipped nevada, north carolina and florida all back to soft blue.

dustalo springsteen (Doctor Casino), Monday, 7 November 2016 16:15 (eight years ago)

huh who would have guessed: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/11/07/low-information-voters-are-a-crucial-part-of-trumps-support/

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 16:16 (eight years ago)

Information is for elitist liberals. Who needs facts when you have your imagination?

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Monday, 7 November 2016 16:19 (eight years ago)

oh come on they don't have imagination

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 16:22 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pifQm3IZ1tc

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 16:23 (eight years ago)

annnnnnd as of a few minutes ago, 538's map has flipped nevada, north carolina and florida all back to soft blue.

ok lol

Mordy, Monday, 7 November 2016 16:28 (eight years ago)

this has got to be the worst political ad I've ever seen. all the things you can say against Hillary, and you come up with "she wants to change the name of the Redskins"??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wi1ISQAlTqU

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 16:29 (eight years ago)

That particular issue is just a microcosm of her broader desire to undermine all of the progress that white people have made by exploiting minorities.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Monday, 7 November 2016 16:34 (eight years ago)

I should be able to use whatever slurs I want in the privacy of my mancave.

jmm, Monday, 7 November 2016 16:37 (eight years ago)

... I mean, you can; that is an incontrovertible fact

You just can't do it at work, or the coffee shop, or the grocery store, or pretty much anyplace that you don't directly own, because that is called "knowing how to act in public" and is something that functioning adults should know how to do.

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 16:39 (eight years ago)

i hadn't even heard of the first documentary (you've been trumped), interesting. wiki said the director said the second one would be out by the election, doesn't look like it made it

― akm, Monday, 7 November 2016 16:05

It may only be UK cinemas. It's a mystery how these films haven't been bigger. Both films are up on youtube (not officially though), but the second one has been viewed only 125 times between 3 different uploads.
It's unlikely they'd get a wide American release so they probably should have put it on YouTube themselves.

Robert Adam Gilmour, Monday, 7 November 2016 16:42 (eight years ago)

xp Oh I know. Sorry if my sarcasm didn't come across.

jmm, Monday, 7 November 2016 16:49 (eight years ago)

a smart ad - - trump really needs to GOTV in Republican stronghold and electoral-vote goldmine Washington, D.C.

dustalo springsteen (Doctor Casino), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:04 (eight years ago)

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/3b/14/45/3b1445adc7999ca7dfe97c3ed7661ccd.jpg

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:08 (eight years ago)

Caught about 2 minutes of a Trump speech - he thinks people from Haiti are Hispanics.

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:10 (eight years ago)

... what

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:11 (eight years ago)

https://pagefiddler.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/saxton-freymann-2.jpg

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:12 (eight years ago)

well they are all rapists and murderers, who can blame him for making an honest mistake

xp

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:12 (eight years ago)

? https://analtrump.bandcamp.com/album/that-makes-me-smart

StanM, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:14 (eight years ago)

He was listing all the great Hispanic peoples of Florida: from Cuba, Puerto Rico, Venezuela, er, Haiti. No mention of America though.

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:15 (eight years ago)

... come to think of it no mention of Mexico either, unless I missed it.

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:15 (eight years ago)

I'm sorry StanM but I am not clicking on a link that starts with "analtrump" in this or any other lifetime

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:16 (eight years ago)

regarding the latino surge. for me it wasn't so much the line about them bringing rapist and murderers, it was when Trump made his anchor baby comment all i can think of was how stupid and misguided that was considering that a lot of these "anchor babies" can vote! and why would they vote for someone trying to deport one or both of their parents .

(•̪●) (carne asada), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:19 (eight years ago)

"We're tired of being led by stupid people. They're stupid," the Republican candidate tells the Florida crowd.

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:21 (eight years ago)

xp even if the headline is "analtrump video released day before election in shocking october surprise"

Mordy, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:23 (eight years ago)

I just missed a call from Dave Fahrenthold

chinavision!, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:24 (eight years ago)

"We're tired of being led by stupid people. They're stupid," the Republican candidate tells the Florida crowd.

Well, he's got a point.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:26 (eight years ago)

You mean he was pointing at the crowd when he said, "They're stupid"?

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:28 (eight years ago)

So it looks like NH is the best/only chance of a 50/50 split in the Senate.

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:37 (eight years ago)

xp even if the headline is "analtrump video released day before election in shocking october surprise"

ESPECIALLY if the headline is "analtrump video released day before election in shocking october surprise"

I wouldn't watch 2 girls, 1 cup; why the hell would I watch ^^^

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:39 (eight years ago)

I really have no idea if Ayotte is toast or not. I would think that her "I support him/wait no I don't" flip-flop would doom her but Hassan's "oops one of our friends/big backers is a pedophile" issue muddies the waters.

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:40 (eight years ago)

You've seen the guy's face, I can't imagine that his anus is that much more unpalatable.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:40 (eight years ago)

^ I followed the link, and they do take the imagination away. (It's a comedy album with many anti-Trump songs, none of which I listened to as I'm at work.

nickn, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:42 (eight years ago)

"i've got the best anus, the cleanest most amazing anus, folks you wouldn't believe it, and i've seen anuses, there are terrible terrible anuses out there."

nomar, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:43 (eight years ago)

Tim Heidecker's song "Donald Trump's Pilot" is pretty good and suitably dark

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:48 (eight years ago)

Analtrump tracklisting. Who knew that A.C. were still putting out material?

1.
You Gotta Treat Em Like Shit 00:03

2.
PTSD Is Gay 00:03

3.
Some Mexicans Aren't Rapists 00:06

4.
I Like The Soldiers Who DON'T Get Captured 00:05

5.
My Daughter Is A Piece Of Ass 00:05

6.
Poor People Are Too Stupid To Get A Loan From Their Parents 00:09

7.
There's My African American! 00:13

8.
Blood Coming Out Of Her Wherever 00:03

9.
Mexican Judges Don't Count 00:01

10.
Journalism Is Gay 00:06

11.
I'd Date My Daughter 00:05

12.
Grab Em By The Pussy 00:08

13.
Take His Coat 00:07

14.
Breast Feeding Is Gay 00:05

15.
Ted Nugent Is Cool 00:02

16.
Dave Mustaine Is Cool 00:03

17.
Trump Tower Has The Best Taco Bowls 00:07

18.
Poll Watcher 00:10

19.
Some Things Saddam Hussein Did Well 00:18

20.
Changing Diapers Is Gay 00:03

21.
Build That Wall 00:08

22.
Alex Jones Is Smart 00:05

23.
I'm In Astonishingly Excellent Health 00:09

24.
Stay In Your Pens 00:04

25.
911 Was Inconvenient For Me, Personally 00:04

26.
Make America Great Again 00:03

27.
Nobody Respects Women More Than Me 00:01

28.
Harriet Tubman Is, Like, A 3 00:07

29.
I Demand An Apology! 00:03

30.
That Makes Me Smart! 00:06
credits

released November 5, 2016

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:53 (eight years ago)

Tim's Trump impression via Decker is incredibly accurate as well.

xp

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:53 (eight years ago)

I just saw Vermin Supreme at Hillary's speech at Pitt.

(somber synthesizer music) (doo dah), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:54 (eight years ago)

i'm a big fan of PTSD is Gay

flappy bird, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:56 (eight years ago)

Tomorrow, we'll need a new thread for election day, wherein we can wring our collective hands all day until the polls close, then slowly switch over to jubilant relief some time before midnight EST, when it becomes apparent the Republicans have lost control of the Senate.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:56 (eight years ago)

Assuming Dems can flip WI, IL, PA and hold on to NV, then it's any one from NH, IN, MO, NC for 50/50. Bayh's lead in IN seems to have to evaporated in the last two weeks (except in the rosy world of Huff Post, who still think he's winning comfortably), NH has never been anything other than a toss-up, and, as close as they are, I don't think the GOP candidates has ever been behind in MO or NC.

Or Rubio loses and we can all relax.

Michael Jones, Monday, 7 November 2016 17:59 (eight years ago)

yes but what will the title be!? xp

(•̪●) (carne asada), Monday, 7 November 2016 17:59 (eight years ago)

Trump Tower Has The Best Taco Bowls

imago, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:02 (eight years ago)

"THANK GOD THIS SHIT IS OVER"

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:03 (eight years ago)

Dems will flip Wisconsin, Nevada, Illinois, and Pennsylvania for sure. I'm fairly confident Ayotte will lose in New Hampshire, and if NC goes to Clinton I think Burr will get washed away. Indiana has me less confident.

As for my home state, I expected the Plankton with a Hairpiece to win in a squeaker, but if the Hispanic early voting turnout has been this staggering, then Murphy will win if he ain't the victim of ticket splitting.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:04 (eight years ago)

"There are terrible anuses out there, and I have got the best anus
The cleanest, most amazing anus, folks, you wouldn't believe it
And I've seen anuses
There are terrible terrible anuses out there."

- Shel Silverstein

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:06 (eight years ago)

no offense to y'all but i cannot wait until i no longer have to read/hear/see bad trump impressions

marcos, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:07 (eight years ago)

it was something that for me personally expired in july or so

marcos, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:07 (eight years ago)

sad

harold melvin and the bluetones (jim in vancouver), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:08 (eight years ago)

Yeah, I wonder how long Trumpvoice will be around. Is it gunna be a thing on podcasts for even longer?

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:10 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwrD8sZXgAEFimt.jpg

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:11 (eight years ago)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwrD_biXcAAxqOY.jpg

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:12 (eight years ago)

no offense to y'all but i cannot wait until i no longer have to read/hear/see bad trump impressions

― marcos, Monday, November 7, 2016 1:07 PM (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it was something that for me personally expired in july or so

― marcos, Monday, November 7, 2016 1:07 PM (seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Well The Heidecker one is more of a character that is heavily based on Trump, and on top of that the Decker show debuted back in 2014. I didn't mean to make it sound like another boring impression.

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:18 (eight years ago)

Has this write up been posted? Wang talks about 538 and comments on his own model's 99% probability

http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/06/is-99-a-reasonable-probability/#more-18522

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:20 (eight years ago)

What are the times of the first and last polls closing tomorrow? (in GMT if you feel like helping me avoid having to math)

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:21 (eight years ago)

oh hey i know that others still have a lot of mileage left on that and it remains an entertaining thing for many, no need to defend yourself xp

marcos, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:22 (eight years ago)

we'll know by 11pm EST

flappy bird, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:22 (eight years ago)

(many xps) Michael Jones - have you moved to the USA or are you just unusually well-informed about these things?

Ireland's Industry (that is what we are) (Nasty, Brutish & Short), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:22 (eight years ago)

Thanks FP (x-post)

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:24 (eight years ago)

xp

No, still a Brit - American ex-wife, therefore dual nationality kids, half my extended family/friends in the US, etc etc

Always been a bit obsessed by these election cycles, prob since Reagan-Mondale. I will be up all night, as per usual. I wish it was like '96, when I was in bed by midnight...

Michael Jones, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:27 (eight years ago)

oh hey i know that others still have a lot of mileage left on that and it remains an entertaining thing for many, no need to defend yourself xp

― marcos, Monday, November 7, 2016 1:22 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

No worries but in light of your post I did want to clarify anyway that the Decker character isn't your typical Trump inspired thing.

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:27 (eight years ago)

http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/2016/11/07/donald-trump-supporters-racist-rant-goes-viral/93417938/

Just, you know, if you want to hear a Trump supporter in his own words.

Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:29 (eight years ago)

Guy really does love whiteness doesn't he.

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:34 (eight years ago)

h hey i know that others still have a lot of mileage left on that and it remains an entertaining thing for many, no need to defend yourself xp

― marcos, Monday, November 7, 2016 1:22 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

No worries but in light of your post I did want to clarify anyway that the Decker character isn't your typical Trump inspired thing.

― Evan, Monday, November 7, 2016 1:27 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

agreed. mostly i was aiming at general "believe me's" and "yuuge" "the best" etc and not at the decker thing which i didn't look it

marcos, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:34 (eight years ago)

and more my fatigue is really just about trump as a reprehensible bag of shit in general

marcos, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:36 (eight years ago)

http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/2016/11/07/donald-trump-supporters-racist-rant-goes-viral/93417938/

Just, you know, if you want to hear a Trump supporter in his own words.

― Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra), Monday, November 7, 2016 1:29 PM (seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

"Jest look on tha furst epuhsode of tha Boondawks!"

how's life, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:38 (eight years ago)

xpost Yeah, I never paid enough attention to Trump before this election to even attempt an impression of him. I'd happily return to that blissful state after the election if he and the media will allow it.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:38 (eight years ago)

What do we think: Will there be a frothing-at-the-mouth concession speech, or will Ivanka just come out into the Trump Tower lobby around 2 AM (with the results having been pretty much carved in stone since ~9 PM EST) and say, "My father thanks you all for your support. Good night" as he retreats into his gold-plated apartment for, like, a month?

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:42 (eight years ago)

he will say it was rigged - but he won't have a legal argument or team in place to actually challenge results

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:43 (eight years ago)

This was a parody in 2011.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USA5v08NcEU

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:43 (eight years ago)

he will also rip into the RNC and the media

xp

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:44 (eight years ago)

All of this will be Russian.

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:45 (eight years ago)

in Russian

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:45 (eight years ago)

Tim Heidecker's Alex Jones impression is a even better, sadly he doesn't whip that one out a whole lot

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:47 (eight years ago)

http://www.knoxnews.com/story/news/local/2016/11/07/donald-trump-supporters-racist-rant-goes-viral/93417938/

Just, you know, if you want to hear a Trump supporter in his own words.

― Mike Pence shakes his head and mouths the word ‘no’ (tipsy mothra)

this is horrifying but I did laugh at "teach me more about black people"

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:48 (eight years ago)

Tim Heidecker's Alex Jones impression is a even better, sadly he doesn't whip that one out a whole lot

― frogbs, Monday, November 7, 2016 1:47 PM (two minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

That IS a straight up impression. The video I linked wasn't one. Just amazing how he predicted today's pro-Trump rhetoric so long ago.

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:50 (eight years ago)

My guess would be that if Trump thinks there is any personal advantage to be gained by going on the attack against any part of the electoral process or anyone involved in it, he'll do so. But, because there's zero chance of his winning the presidency, however he flails against the result, any perceived personal advantage would have to be in some other arena, such as his pending court cases or future business plans.

That seems unlikely to me, so I'd put the odds in favor of a relatively low key concession that meets the minimal requirement of congratulating the victor, then immediately rambles off into talking at length about himself: what a good campaign he ran, and how nasty it got, and how well he handled that nastiness, and how proud he is of his kids, and how great he'll be in the future, and so on.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, 7 November 2016 18:54 (eight years ago)

x[ yeah I didn't see the whole "Decker = Trump" thing at first but once someone pointed it out it's like, holy shit

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:54 (eight years ago)

I'd wonder whether Trump himself would understand that it's satire

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 18:57 (eight years ago)

I wonder if Trump realizes that when this is over in just over 24 hours ... it will not be over. It will never be over. It will never be business as usual. He will never be beyond scrutiny ever again, and there will be a (figurative, at least) target on his back until he dies. I can easily see it going the way of Errol Morris' Mr. Death doc, with the dude so deluded and willing to accept praise from any corner that he essentially goes into parallel universe exile.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:04 (eight years ago)

It will never be over.

Gawd 'elp us.

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:06 (eight years ago)

Another wall collapses.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:10 (eight years ago)

http://www.theonion.com/blogpost/no-matter-what-happens-tomorrow-least-i-had-fun-54606

The Onion get it otm, as usual. Sorry if this has already been posted

paolo, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:11 (eight years ago)

I can see him giving a decent concession speech, just because a small part of me still believes he doesn't actually want to win

My guess: he gives the speech, but it's incredibly patronizing in a "I didn't even try that hard, and look how much money she spent to beat me, guess I'll just go back to my massively successful life" sort of way

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:12 (eight years ago)

I can see him giving a decent concession speech, just because a small part of me still believes he doesn't actually want to win

My guess: he gives the speech, but it's incredibly patronizing in a "I didn't even try that hard, and look how much money she spent to beat me, guess I'll just go back to my massively successful life" sort of way

― frogbs, Monday, November 7, 2016 2:12 PM (fifty-nine seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah, i think this is otm. there was a piece in the NYT recently i think where he told Kellyanne Conway "if i lose, that's ok, too" and she freaked out. he's resigned himself to taking an L (he already has this year, most notably in Iowa), and yeah, he absolutely does not want the job.

flappy bird, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:16 (eight years ago)

i don't think it's right. he gets more grandiose in the presence of his fawning supporters. with a large crowd of angry white people as his audience, i don't know what the fuck he'll do, but i don't think he'll waddle out of the room with his tail between his legs

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:21 (eight years ago)

Maybe he'll drop trou' and just pee on the crowd.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:21 (eight years ago)

Breaking: SCOTUS just denied Dems' application to vacate stay in 6th Cir voter intimidation case.

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:22 (eight years ago)

xps well both him and HRC will be in Manhattan watching the results tomorrow, so he won't have a crowd to feed off of.

flappy bird, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:23 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/AphexTwin/status/795671470315884544

the notes the loon doesn't play (ulysses), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:24 (eight years ago)

Trump always wanted to win (because winning is paramount to him, and because this is the biggest win he could ever win) and never wanted to actually be president.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:25 (eight years ago)

Eh, any time something doesn't go his way it's a massive conspiracy. Finally losing the election is the ultimate not-going-his-way, so I expect he'll throw the ultimate "rigged" speech as a result.

xposts

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:26 (eight years ago)

yeah I think he wants to lose because it was taken away from him because he was too "willing to speak the truth", not because he was that shitty of a candidate. I think he wanted to get Bernie Sander'd if anything

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:28 (eight years ago)

baffled at anyone that thinks Trump's goals are anything other than what he has consistently stated throughout his life/campaign - he is not smart enough to have a 'hidden agenda' re: "not really wanting to win" or whatever

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:29 (eight years ago)

He'll probably go find some desert island and lord it over the monkeys

“a tub of horses” (Myonga Vön Bontee), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:30 (eight years ago)

of course he wants to be president. he just has no idea what being president actually entails and figures he could make whatever he wanted out of the position.

xp

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:30 (eight years ago)

outic is right

marcos, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:31 (eight years ago)

Yeah we've had enough Trump in our faces for enough time to rule out any existence of complexity attributed to him.

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:31 (eight years ago)

I still think this is a publicity stunt gone horribly wrong (or right?)

When he talks about how he "didn't have to do this" because he could be living his "very comfortable life", I think he is mostly talking to himself

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:34 (eight years ago)

guys, he's going to concede, and it's not going to be a big deal.

k3vin k., Monday, 7 November 2016 19:35 (eight years ago)

he'll say some BS like "i'll keep fighting for you" and there will be a lot of applause and some "lock her up!" chants (maybe some "impeach her!" chants) and then he'll pop up on tv for awhile.

nomar, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:36 (eight years ago)

dunno about that network, i could see it losing momentum but you never know.

nomar, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:37 (eight years ago)

Exactly. Look to his concession speech on the night of the Iowa caucus. It'll be a rushed, muted affair.

flappy bird, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:37 (eight years ago)

Well, I didn't want to repeat myself, but Trump wants to be president in the same way that a five-year-old wants to be president. The thought doesn't contain much more depth or complexity than 'I want to be president'. So I'll concede that much.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:37 (eight years ago)

Breitbart might just rebrand as Trump or something

slathered in cream and covered with stickers (silby), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:38 (eight years ago)

In terms of what he'll say at concession: it'll be whatever feels good to him, whatever gets him off. So I won't be surprised to hear plenty of froth to rile up the troops.

What I wonder about, though, is the aftermath among his supporters. What does a rural riot look like? There's not much to smash or tip over (er, cows?), and everybody's so spread out...

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:38 (eight years ago)

his concession speech (inshallah) )will be ugly because he is a shithead and his assembled crowd will be baying, and he won't be the one to try and calm them down and get them to accept the result (one thing about john mccain - who is a massive shithead - is that he showed some grace in front of his followers who were getting raging and wailing and gnashing and rending garments etc. and he calmly and explicitly made it quite clear that they must accept the result and that obama was the legitimate president-elect).

harold melvin and the bluetones (jim in vancouver), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:40 (eight years ago)

there won't be jackshit, just the usual online hardmanning and gun-nut cosplay

maybe some relatively random right-wing militia nonsense in isolated spots

xp

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:41 (eight years ago)

What I wonder about, though, is the aftermath among his supporters. What does a rural riot look like? There's not much to smash or tip over (er, cows?), and everybody's so spread out...

http://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/cow_tipping.jpg

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:41 (eight years ago)

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/12/3a/e3/123ae3d95aa4d2c2b76139cb8361b5b9.jpg

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:42 (eight years ago)

whatever % of americans actually vote for him the % who will admit it in a month will be about half that

Mordy, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:43 (eight years ago)

^prob and yet most (all?) the GOP pols who backed him will hardly pay a price for doing so. i think that pisses me off more than anything.

acerbic (sic)s (will), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:45 (eight years ago)

And half of the people who've endorsed him will pull some McCain "well, if you paid attention to my inflection you could tell that I wasn't serious" shit.

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Monday, 7 November 2016 19:46 (eight years ago)

^prob and yet most (all?) the GOP pols who backed him will hardly pay a price for doing so. i think that pisses me off more than anything.

absolutely. the amount of Rs going from "he's a con man who cannot be allowed into the White House" to a full-throated endorsement is sickening.

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 19:58 (eight years ago)

I can imagine Trump going the cliche: begins prepared concession speech -> "Sorry I can't do this" crumples papers -> adlib rigged election meltdown/semi-concession but mostly she needs to be stopped because its the apocalypse but I concede that America has sealed its fate and it's a shame

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:03 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/DigimonOtis/status/795716826625929216

goole, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:05 (eight years ago)

I'm currently enjoying the plight of Va-10 GOP congressional candidate Barbara Comstock, who denounced Trump after the pussy tape; she in fact argued that he should have withdrawn as nominee. She calculated that she needed to do this to keep some moderate 'burb voters on her side, but of course it angered her gun-totin', Hill-hatin' exurban constituents.

It's true that Trumploid Republicans may not pay much of price from within their districts. But at the state level and nationally, they will have a harder time ever being taken seriously again.

Every non-Trumploid Republican, in contrast, will be regarded as a saboteur who caused the Orange One's defeat by not getting behind him sufficiently. They will be purged. Personally I will not shed a tear.

marzipandemonium (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:05 (eight years ago)

Love DigimonOtis

flappy bird, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:07 (eight years ago)

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/glenn-beck-obama-made-me-better-man

in other news that would have been unthinkable prior to this election

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:08 (eight years ago)

The evolution of Glenn Beck is the weirdest fucking thing

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:10 (eight years ago)

mormon

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:14 (eight years ago)

(Beck) told the New Yorker that Trump once called him into a guest room at his Mar-A-Lago resort and then telephoned him.

“We had this weird, almost Howard Hughes-like conversation,” Beck told the New Yorker.

He said the conversation left him thinking Trump is crazy.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:15 (eight years ago)

god knows what happened to him

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/49/2b/8d/492b8dc580ef2f7364f0b0bfe5ad5416.jpg

nomar, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:16 (eight years ago)

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/11/14/glenn-beck-tries-out-decency

the first sentence contains the word "mansplanation" but the (brief) article is worth reading. he says he's a BLM supporter!

k3vin k., Monday, 7 November 2016 20:16 (eight years ago)

That was the old Beck, he insists: “I did a lot of freaking out about Barack Obama.” But, he said, “Obama made me a better man.” He regrets calling the President a racist and counts himself a Black Lives Matter supporter. “There are things unique to the African-American experience that I cannot relate to,” he said. “I had to listen to them.”

k3vin k., Monday, 7 November 2016 20:17 (eight years ago)

well i guess w/every other vintage right wing loon doubling down it's nice to see a dude going the other way

nomar, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:18 (eight years ago)

I kind of figured Trump would send Ivanka or Kelly-Ann out to concede for him - can he do that?

Eallach mhór an duine leisg (dowd), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:18 (eight years ago)

cool that he's having second thoughts, however...fuck glenn beck for life, no matter what, no matter what he ever does in the future, for ruining my dad and a bunch of other dads?? fuck him

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:19 (eight years ago)

"hey, sorry for prying your mouth open and shitting in it all of last week. i really regret that."

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:20 (eight years ago)

that quote is kind of mindblowing

a (waterface), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:21 (eight years ago)

"local man who shit in people's mouths turning over a new leaf; has a new book to promote about how he changed and why"

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:21 (eight years ago)

fuck Fox for giving him a platform. plenty of crazy born again former alkies like him

flappy bird, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:22 (eight years ago)

h8 to say it k.m. but your dad ruined himself. that's what dads do.

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:24 (eight years ago)

but yeah fuck glenn beck forever

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:25 (eight years ago)

That's one of the perks of becoming a dad afaict

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:25 (eight years ago)

That was the old Beck, he insists

Reminds me of how often there was an "old Nixon" and a "new Nixon".

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:25 (eight years ago)

beck is a much much much much worse person k.m.'s dad i'm sure xposts

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:26 (eight years ago)

kinda sounds like my nightmare reality show

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:26 (eight years ago)

the two of them behind closed doors, i mean, discussing things. "old Beck", not the new. the new Beck is totally different and trustworthy

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:27 (eight years ago)

yeah man. been a real Sea Change with that guy

flappy bird, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:28 (eight years ago)

yeah beck should always be remembered for being a dangerous lunatic first and foremost. if he's decided to devote the rest of his words in this life to trying to undo some of the dangerous lunatic shit that's all well and good but, most certainly, fuck him for life

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:29 (eight years ago)

here's a poll idea: who is the worst/most irritating of the Trump surrogates? Giuliani is my first thought here but in the end for me it's between AJ Delgado turning every appearance into a shouting match and Kellyanne Conway's forced smile and extreme passive-aggressiveness

in other words "WHY AREN'T WE TALKING ABOUT HILLARY'S EMAILS 24/7!!!" vs "Well gosh if Hillary's so great, why is she only up 5 points? Are you telling me the first female candidate in history can't do better than a lousy 5 points?"

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:29 (eight years ago)

guys just to be clear i am not defending glenn beck at all, he's the worst, the end.

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:31 (eight years ago)

i'm gonna spend some of my time figuring out just what's up with glenn beck changing his mind on things.... NOT!!!

goole, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:31 (eight years ago)

A.J. Delgado is a fifth-rate Ann Coulter clone with a voice like Volkswagen.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:33 (eight years ago)

michael cohen is the most despicable-seeming trump surrogate

nomar, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:35 (eight years ago)

i care what glenn beck says ... SIKE

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:35 (eight years ago)

Beck is a gullible moron but I accept his repentance, y'all are harsh

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:35 (eight years ago)

here's a poll idea: who is the worst/most irritating of the Trump surrogates? Giuliani is my first thought here but in the end for me it's between AJ Delgado turning every appearance into a shouting match and Kellyanne Conway's forced smile and extreme passive-aggressiveness

in other words "WHY AREN'T WE TALKING ABOUT HILLARY'S EMAILS 24/7!!!" vs "Well gosh if Hillary's so great, why is she only up 5 points? Are you telling me the first female candidate in history can't do better than a lousy 5 points?"

― frogbs, Monday, November 7, 2016 3:29 PM (five minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

corey lewandoski is pretty bad

marcos, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:36 (eight years ago)

where are u all going to watch the results come in tomorrow (besides ilxor.com)?

Mordy, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:36 (eight years ago)

MSNBC + Fox

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:37 (eight years ago)

shakey otm!

k3vin k., Monday, 7 November 2016 20:38 (eight years ago)

I'm going to watch the chimneys to see if there is white smoke or rivers of red blood.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:38 (eight years ago)

Has anyone listened to his show at all? Is Repentant Beck repentant in public?

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:39 (eight years ago)

where are u all going to watch the results come in tomorrow (besides ilxor.com)?
― Mordy, Monday, November 7, 2016 2:36 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

planning to obsessively refresh the Washington post website from a dark closet while i listen to whale sounds

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:41 (eight years ago)

yeah i'll give Beck the benefit of the doubt but he's got a looooong way to go to make up for the damage.
the guy was EVERY bit as instrumental in the rise of Trumplandia as his counterparts, even if he never jumped on the train.

a few well-placed media mea culpas doesn't exactly do it.

acerbic (sic)s (will), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:42 (eight years ago)

he dedicated his life to spreading hysterical lies for years, not sure why now we should trust his repentance as honest or anything other than just some other long con but hey

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:43 (eight years ago)

but he was fodder for some p classic Jon Stewart bits so at least there's that

acerbic (sic)s (will), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:44 (eight years ago)

where are u all going to watch the results come in tomorrow (besides ilxor.com)?

― Mordy, Monday, November 7, 2016 3:36 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

im having a small watch party at my house. mostly family. we'll have some beer + a little weed. we don't have cable so we'll watch nbc i guess, it comes in better than other channels. legit nervous about ohio going for trump, not that i think trump will win the election by any means but it would just be a downer to live in a trump state even if cuyahoga county/cleveland goes overwhelmingly for clinton

marcos, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:45 (eight years ago)

What happened to Beck going blind?

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:46 (eight years ago)

if FOX is streaming election returns I will probably watch that tbh

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:49 (eight years ago)

red state blues

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:49 (eight years ago)

Trump will win Ohio.

I will drink Aperol.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:52 (eight years ago)

where are u all going to watch the results come in tomorrow (besides ilxor.com)?

― Mordy

i am not going to watch the results. tomorrow morning, i am going to vote, and then i am going to eat wings and drink beer and turn off the internet until wednesday. i don't need the stress.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Monday, 7 November 2016 20:53 (eight years ago)

fuck this thing is almost over. can't believe it.

goole, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:57 (eight years ago)

I hope the next country turns out better

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 20:57 (eight years ago)

i am not going to watch the results. tomorrow morning, i am going to vote, and then i am going to eat wings and drink beer and turn off the internet until wednesday. i don't need the stress.

― xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Monday, November 7, 2016 8:53 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

shit dude that's a whole day i would personally get sick of wings and beer after an hour

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:01 (eight years ago)

I'm gonna vote sometime before 9 AM (I'm in NJ), then be busy doing other things for most of the middle of the day. Will probably watch election results on NBC because as big an asshole as he is, I still find Chuck Todd less annoying than his equivalents on other networks. I will absolutely not be able to stomach anything Fox-related tomorrow, but it's an untold story how close to the Fox worldview CBS News gets a lot of the time - their field reporters, particularly Major Garrett and Chip Reid, are fervent regurgitators of right-wing spin, and Charlie Rose is never happier than when he's got a billionaire or Republican politician's cock in his mouth.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:02 (eight years ago)

i'll be checking the internet most of the day but i've got to try and do other stuff or i'll go crazy

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:03 (eight years ago)

i am not going to watch the results. tomorrow morning, i am going to vote, and then i am going to eat wings and drink beer and turn off the internet until wednesday. i don't need the stress.

― xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Monday, November 7, 2016 8:53 PM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

shit dude that's a whole day i would personally get sick of wings and beer after an hour

― The times they are a changing, perhaps (map)

well i'm going to run out of wings pretty early on, to be honest. probably just kick back and listen to the well-tempered clavier or trilogie de la mort or something. i'm pretty good at killing time when i need to.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:06 (eight years ago)

On election eve, the University of Virginia's respected Center for Politics is predicting Hillary Clinton will be the country's 45th president.

"Not even on Clinton’s worst campaign days did we ever have her below 270 electoral votes," the team at University of Virginia wrote.

The team predicts that Clinton will win Tuesday with 322 electoral votes compared to Trump's 216 and that the U.S. Senate will be tied 50-50 with Vice President Tim Kaine serving as its tie breaker.

The silver lining for Republicans is that they are still expected to hold the House of Representatives, but the UVa crew writes that they will likely lose 13 seats.

grim prediction: 2018 is going to be absolutely brutal. nothing is going to pass the next two years. even emergency bills (ie Zika) will struggle to get passed. democrats and liberals will forget to show up for the midterms, again.

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:09 (eight years ago)

OTM

sleeve, Monday, 7 November 2016 21:10 (eight years ago)

grim prediction inspired by the choice of photo that TPM used to accompany the article

http://i.imgur.com/iAszsry.png

NO! picking up a dozen house seats and squeaking through to a majority, against the worst presidential candidate of all time, even worse than barry goldwater and george wallace, is not something that you respond to with shiteating victory grin. she is fucked.

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:13 (eight years ago)

ffs youd prefer a closer win or a draw or a narrow loss or a bad loss

the kids are alt right (darraghmac), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:16 (eight years ago)

I need to buy some more beer! My fridge is empty otherwise.

Evan, Monday, 7 November 2016 21:19 (eight years ago)

yeah if Senate ties GOP will claim a "mandate" against any and all HRC policy proposals with a straight face

acerbic (sic)s (will), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:20 (eight years ago)

xpost
no, just a more accurate corresponding photo to what's actually happening, like an eagle toppling off of the top branch of a tree, wings mangled, barely clutching a scumsoaked american flag while a scurry of foam-mouthed enraged squirrels leap off the same branch in hot pursuit

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:21 (eight years ago)

they don't care about mandates

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 21:21 (eight years ago)

as long as they dont turn into manmarriages

the kids are alt right (darraghmac), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:25 (eight years ago)

xxp squirrels? im behind in my memes

the kids are alt right (darraghmac), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:26 (eight years ago)

I early voted on my birthday (Friday before last), and on Election Night I'm hosting a pub quiz at my regular venue downtown, which luckily for me is in a basement with 50+ beers on tap, plenty of wine, and four food vendors to choose from. They have three TVs over the bar, so I'll keep an eye on whatever news they choose to show.

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:33 (eight years ago)

I don't understand much about USA elections but if the Senate is tied what's to prevent Kaine from casting as many tiebreaking votes as he wants?

“a tub of horses” (Myonga Vön Bontee), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:34 (eight years ago)

as we stumble to the finish line
i wanted to say thank god for ilx
i don't think i could have made it w/o all youse & the insights and jokes and dumb comments and distracting infighting and all the rest

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:35 (eight years ago)

I don't understand much about USA elections but if the Senate is tied what's to prevent Kaine from casting as many tiebreaking votes as he wants?

Well for one thing, it's not guaranteed that every single vote will fall directly down partisan lines, resulting in a tie; it's also not guaranteed that every senator will show up to every session, meaning some votes will have fewer than 100 people voting.

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:37 (eight years ago)

^ What upper mississippi said, xpost.

Also just thank y'all for being generally sane and thoughtful. It's easy enough to find an echo chamber that reverberates with opinions I share (facebook, probably daily kos or whatever), but cheerleading for my own side does nothing for me

Dan I., Monday, 7 November 2016 21:39 (eight years ago)

their field reporters, particularly Major Garrett and Chip Reid, are fervent regurgitators of right-wing spin

Really? Every time I see Garrett report on something Trump said/did on CBS Morning News, it's with this smirk like "what a maroon."

Their all losers and I like associating with loser (Dan Peterson), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:40 (eight years ago)

there are implied heart-eyes around "maroon"

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:40 (eight years ago)

heir field reporters, particularly Major Garrett and Chip Reid, are fervent regurgitators of right-wing spin

is "Chip" a title too?

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:41 (eight years ago)

Gotcha DJP, thanks
xpost

“a tub of horses” (Myonga Vön Bontee), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:43 (eight years ago)

One reason to put Rubio back in the Senate is that dude really hates the job and has a strong habit of skipping votes

¶ (DJP), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:47 (eight years ago)

Back when Obamacare was making its way through Congress (and even after it became law), CBS had a female reporter - can't remember her name, an old-ish brunette - whose apparent full-time job was to report the most negative story or angle on it, every single day.

Don Van Gorp, midwest regional VP, marketing (誤訳侮辱), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:48 (eight years ago)

this should go well:

[Rudolph Giuliani ‏@rudygiulianiGOP 8h8 hours ago

Today is a new day. Let's get some momentum for @realDonaldTrump. RT with your favorite Trump quote. #TrumpPence16 #MAGA

sleeve, Monday, 7 November 2016 21:51 (eight years ago)

One reason to throw the junior senator from Florida out is that he becomes the manager of a Flagami Little League team and won't run in 2020.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:51 (eight years ago)

from a ways back, I'd say Boris Epshteyn is the worst Trump surrogate, for being burly-tough until cornered and then retreating to "hey, I'm not the candidate, you'll have to ask him that question."

marzipandemonium (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:56 (eight years ago)

Got my final Poll Observer credentials and assignment today. I'll be inside observing in a precinct in the Collinwood neighborhood of Cleveland. Collinwood is about 62% black/34% white and borders Cleveland, East Cleveland and Euclid.

I looked up their 2012 results to see what to expect and this precinct had 898 registered voters and 60% turnout.

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:59 (eight years ago)

i care what glenn beck says ... SIKE

― The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Monday, November 7, 2016 2:35 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

SYKES

http://www.glennbeck.com/publish/uploads/2014/09/Unknown-2-640x360.png

Wozniak on Kimye's Baby (jaymc), Monday, 7 November 2016 21:59 (eight years ago)

For a while, I thought (and posted) that one term would be sufficient for a tired and embattled Clinton. She would have proven the point, she'd be on those classroom posters of American presidents forever, she could pass the torch to younger and more spirited progressives.

It just occurred to me today that 2020 will be the centenary of the 19th amendment.

marzipandemonium (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 7 November 2016 22:03 (eight years ago)

@NickTimiraos
When the AP called the election
2012: 11:38 pm, Tuesday
2008: 11 pm, Tuesday
2004: 11:19 am, Wednesday
2000: No call
1996: 9 pm, Tuesday

eastern time

mookieproof, Monday, 7 November 2016 22:03 (eight years ago)

if this election somehow extends its horrible life another day i will be very sad indeed

geometry-stabilized craft (art), Monday, 7 November 2016 22:06 (eight years ago)

not gonna happen

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 22:08 (eight years ago)

2000 was the fucking worst

carthago delenda est (mayor jingleberries), Monday, 7 November 2016 22:19 (eight years ago)

I was only 14 but 2000 was just the most surreal thing. I knew nothing about politics and didn't care then but if something like that happens tomorrow it'll be a worldwide heart attack

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 22:35 (eight years ago)

that isn't going to happen

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 22:35 (eight years ago)

hey, an Egg McMuffin can dream

frogbs, Monday, 7 November 2016 22:37 (eight years ago)

Dude, Alfred, what's with you and Aperol lately? Do you drink it straight?

Wozniak on Kimye's Baby (jaymc), Monday, 7 November 2016 22:41 (eight years ago)

haha my question exactly

my preferred mix is 1 oz gin, 1/2 oz Aperol, 1/4 oz St. Germaine, splash of tonic

sleeve, Monday, 7 November 2016 22:44 (eight years ago)

Just checking if Dr. Wang will allow us to borrow a bit of bandwidth:

http://election.princeton.edu/wp-content/uploads/autographics/EV_histogram_today.png

publicity hungry, opportunistic, disgruntled former employee (Sanpaku), Monday, 7 November 2016 22:46 (eight years ago)

I detest the slog from 7 pm to midnight.

"With 3% of precincts reporting in North Bogolinia, Smith is 20 points up! If this keeps up, he's gonna have a great night." Twenty minutes later, "With 17% of precincts reporting, Smith is now 15 points down! he really needs to pick up those Jewish voters in East Borbsburg!" An hour later, "Well, we're at 57% of precincts reporting from North Bogolinia, Smith is retaining a comfortable lead. However, we're hearing that West Ziggiston hasn't reported in yet, and that's a campus area with a heavy student population, so you'd expect him to do well there." Three hours later, "With 79% of precincts reporting, things are looking bad for Smith. But the remaining votes come from heavily rural Shmeg County, where polling was scarce...."

Lather, rinse, repeat. I want a pill that puts me to sleep at 8 PM and lets me wake up when networks start calling states.

marzipandemonium (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 7 November 2016 22:47 (eight years ago)

can someone explain to me why NH is a tossup at all? seems like a big outlier in the region, and I don't get what's unique about it that it has enough no-information rightwing voters who are into Trump

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 22:47 (eight years ago)

They are the ultimate vanity voters.

Dan I., Monday, 7 November 2016 22:48 (eight years ago)

Easiest way to convince a NH voter to vote for yr candidate is to tell them to vote for the other guy.

Dan I., Monday, 7 November 2016 22:49 (eight years ago)

Dude, Alfred, what's with you and Aperol lately? Do you drink it straight?

― Wozniak on Kimye's Baby (jaymc), Monday, November 7, 2016 5:41 PM (eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

haha my question exactly

my preferred mix is 1 oz gin, 1/2 oz Aperol, 1/4 oz St. Germaine, splash of tonic

― sleeve, Monday, November 7, 2016

I love the vowel sound of Aperol.

I mix it with half a finger of gin and a quarter finger of vermouth, stir, serve over ice.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 22:50 (eight years ago)

regular fingers or Trump-sized?

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Monday, 7 November 2016 22:54 (eight years ago)

After this story published, a member of Beck’s PR team reached out to The Huffington Post to say that while Beck empathizes with Black Lives Matter, he doesn’t “support the organization,” and they’ve asked The New Yorker for a correction. This article has been updated accordingly.

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 22:55 (eight years ago)

xpost Ha, just asked on f'book! So basically a mellow take on a Negroni?

Josh in Chicago, Monday, 7 November 2016 22:56 (eight years ago)

NH thoughts for Οὖτις:

NH is the most conservative part of New England by a large margin. Very libertarian bent when I was a kid and seems like it still holds some water in the parts of the state that aren't the Boston suburbs; "Live Free or Die" is more than a motto to a lot of folks. Some people are also blaming the Democrats who've led the state for a long time now for the heroin epidemic and the economic problems of the non-Boston parts of the state. At least that's what I hear from friends and relatives.

EZ Snappin, Monday, 7 November 2016 22:59 (eight years ago)

That open-source poll aggregator I mentioned upthread is still being updated (currently at 89%): https://rawgit.com/pkremp/polls/master/report.html

he's also provided a function that allows the user to update the predictions themselves tomorrow night as results come in: https://pkremp.github.io/update_prob.html

Dan I., Monday, 7 November 2016 23:04 (eight years ago)

huh. I wonder why that is, historically speaking.

xp

Οὖτις, Monday, 7 November 2016 23:05 (eight years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pysu0dICxy0

electric wight dorkestra (crüt), Monday, 7 November 2016 23:10 (eight years ago)

I love the vowel sound of Aperol.

I mix it with half a finger of gin and a quarter finger of vermouth, stir, serve over ice.

― The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, November 7, 2016 4:50 PM (fifteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Ah, very good. It mixes well with tequila, too.

Wozniak on Kimye's Baby (jaymc), Monday, 7 November 2016 23:11 (eight years ago)

Has this been posted?
Google Trends - searching for issues around voting

(somber synthesizer music) (doo dah), Monday, 7 November 2016 23:16 (eight years ago)

Ah, very good. It mixes well with tequila, too.

― Wozniak on Kimye's Baby (jaymc)

I don't like Campari and soda, so I avoid the spritzer stuff. I just poured a small glass using Josh's St Germain recipe -- too sweet for my taste, despite my small pour.

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Monday, 7 November 2016 23:20 (eight years ago)

if you encounter issues voting then please report them here https://propublica.forms.fm/election-day-reports

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, 7 November 2016 23:39 (eight years ago)

Bill Bryson said he thought "live free or die" was a bit more commitment than he wanted to sign up for; he would have preferred "live free or whine."

marzipandemonium (Ye Mad Puffin), Monday, 7 November 2016 23:40 (eight years ago)

if you encounter issues voting then please report them here https://propublica.forms.fm/election-day-reports

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Monday, November 7, 2016 6:39 PM (two minutes ago)

be the first time anybody's encountered issues all campaign amirite

k3vin k., Monday, 7 November 2016 23:42 (eight years ago)

idgi bc ppl have experienced voting problems before that means that they should be report them if they experience them now?

Mordy, Monday, 7 November 2016 23:54 (eight years ago)

shouldn't*

Mordy, Monday, 7 November 2016 23:54 (eight years ago)

k3vin means the campaign has been ad hominem rather than issues-based

MatthewK, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:00 (eight years ago)

kind of chickenshit of the wall street journal not to endorse, and i don't care that they haven't done it since 1928

mookieproof, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:02 (eight years ago)

Oh lol I missed that thought it was a bruneau-esque comment sorry k3v

Mordy, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:02 (eight years ago)

haha thx

k3vin k., Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:02 (eight years ago)

http://www.vox.com/presidential-election/2016/11/6/13542680/there-are-4000-people-in-a-half-mile-voting-line-in-cincinnati-today-this-isn-t-okay

― Josh in Chicago

vox doesn't seem to be completely forthright about what's going on here. i can't speak for cincy (well i guess i could call my brother who lives there), but in marion county, indiana (indianapolis), the lack of early voting is a deliberate voter suppression strategy employed by republican lawmakers. here in marion county we only have one early voting location, downtown, for the whole party. early voting locations are controlled by the county election commission, but after 2008 the republican statewide majority changed the regulations to require unanimous approval by the elections board for any change to voting regulations (including expanding early voting). the marion county elections commission has two democrats, one republican. the republican refuses to approve any expansion of early voting, and refuses to respond to anybody who asks her why.

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:04 (eight years ago)

Going back a bit, I think Trump's made it as clear as possible that he won't concede if it's at all close. He's been saying that the only way he can lose Pennsylvania is if it's rigged for at least three months.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:14 (eight years ago)

I don't know how close for that to happen...I might be way, way off here--who knows with Trump. But my own guess is that he'll concede without much fanfare if Clinton's anywhere over 300 EV, maybe even less.

I'm still not convinced he ever actually wanted to win. I don't think he wanted to lose a landslide, and if he comes in with a somewhat generic loss, he might view that as the best possible result.

clemenza, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:40 (eight years ago)

kind of chickenshit of the wall street journal not to endorse, and i don't care that they haven't done it since 1928

how dare you suggest the wsj editorial staff might be unprincipled

illegal economic migration (Tracer Hand), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:43 (eight years ago)

I'm expecting his concession speech to be peak fussy toddler.

Evan, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:45 (eight years ago)

Him initially not expecting to get this far in the election is not the same as him not wanting to actually win. Once he had a chance at all I'm sure he went fully into I want this I deserve this mode.

Evan, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:48 (eight years ago)

the general has been awful, but i'll never hear a bad word said about the primary season that gave us "please clap"

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:49 (eight years ago)

what about 'no puppet'

mookieproof, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 00:54 (eight years ago)

I'm expecting his concession speech to be peak fussy toddler.

I'll be miffed if it isn't, I want a full-on tantrum.

The Doug Walters of Crime (Tom D.), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 01:02 (eight years ago)

Kurt Eichenwald is reprising 129 facts about Donald Trump on his twitter tonight.

Distribution of all possible outcomes (Sanpaku), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 01:08 (eight years ago)

The pyramids were used to store grain

flappy bird, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 01:18 (eight years ago)

538 seems to be down. 100 million people looking to be reassured.

clemenza, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 01:19 (eight years ago)

if it isn't close -- or at least close enough to pin it on 'fraud' in one or two states -- i wouldn't be surprised if peak fussy toddler took the form of not giving a speech at all

mookieproof, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 01:19 (eight years ago)

I wish but there is no way that Donald trump is going to pass up an opportunity to speak in front of a large crowd of people.

intheblanks, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 01:41 (eight years ago)

The Washington Post gave Marc Thiessen money to write this

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/relax-democrats-a-trump-win-would-be-a-third-obama-term/2016/11/07/1ebeb984-a4fd-11e6-8fc0-7be8f848c492_story.html

and this section is called boner (Phil D.), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 01:42 (eight years ago)

Yeah thats an embarrasment

Οὖτις, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 01:58 (eight years ago)

lol that's baller

yolo mostly (sleepingbag), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 02:05 (eight years ago)

I'd be perversely disappointed if Trump concedes graciously

“a tub of horses” (Myonga Vön Bontee), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 02:13 (eight years ago)

the next step is the mainstreaming of property requirements for voting, and marc thiessen will be on the front lines

mookieproof, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 02:17 (eight years ago)

Looking back to a few of my predictions from July 1, 2015 on the clown car thread:

Rubio won't get anywhere near the nomination. This fight will eventually come down to J.E. Bush and Scott (My Own Worst Enema) Walker.

Carly Fiona will stay in the race until she eventually has spent $488 of her own money for each primary vote she gets.

Rand Paul will hang on to his 62 pledged delegates to the last moment and try to use them to broker the convention.

Trump will act like he's still running after New Hampshire, but stop scheduling any campaign events.

Chris Christie will hire Donald Segretti to sabotage the campaigns of all the other candidates, but Segretti will actually be a mole for the Bush campaign.

Rick Santorum will be puzzled when his fund-raising phone calls consistently get very bad connections, causing the party at the other end to sound like they are hissing or gargling, then are suddenly cut off. Changing phones or carriers doesn't seem to help at all.

I had nothing to say about Cruz or Carson. Too bad. I see I forgot all about Rick Perry. In this I was not alone. I was also dead wrong about the eventual outcome. I was not alone in that, either.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 02:30 (eight years ago)

I like this take on how to rate the poll aggregators

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 03:17 (eight years ago)

I cd get into a thread where we each repost our rongest and most otm analyses from the primaries actually

dustalo springsteen (Doctor Casino), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 03:38 (eight years ago)

Fiorina is going nowhere bc of her history at HP. debate was a stalemate. I'm almost sure Rubio will be the nominee. he didn't distinguish himself last night but he's trying not to peak early.

― flappy bird, Thursday, September 17, 2015 3:08 PM (one year ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

flappy bird, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 03:39 (eight years ago)

how about we just ignore all of the times we stated predictions as if they were inevitabilities so that we can keep doing so in the future

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 03:40 (eight years ago)

i kid, i kid. i did get annoyed a few times at the certainty that trump would never be able to top 25% of the vote, and i feel like the fact that this is even somewhat close here at the end vindicates that skepticism, but i'm certainly guilty of doing the same thing all over ilx

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 03:42 (eight years ago)

i was convinced a few weeks ago that trump's ceiling was 40%, but i guess that's unlikely to hold

::sigh::

i'm incredibly anxious, like a lot of you, and am resisting the urge to take a bit of it out on the one stein supporter on my Facebook feed. at least he's not in a swing state.

right i'm wondering if

a) the fact that an undisciplined, overtly hateful authoritarian nut job can get > 40% of the vote means that a more disciplined, smoother-edged authoritarian could win?

or

b) the country is so polarized that the support of /any/ republican or democrat, regardless of personal foibles, would be about the same at this juncture.

those two things might not be opposed. the idea that whoever comes out of the GOP primary process will :automatically: get > 40% of the electorate means that another, more practiced demagogue could easily end up in this position in 2020, 2024...

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:06 (eight years ago)

er, right NOW i'm wondering if...

(sorry for typos)

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:06 (eight years ago)

the general has been awful, but i'll never hear a bad word said about the primary season that gave us "please clap"

i remember when the whole thing was funny, at least in part. i haven't been able to laugh about any of this for months.

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:07 (eight years ago)

also, every time we wonder what trump will do, he does the worst possible thing, so i'm going to bet he either

- doesn't concede

- concedes, then takes it back a few hours/days later

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:08 (eight years ago)

Skimming the earlier threads, I think my favorite moment of this entire presidential race was Ben Carson's fucked up map of America.

http://cdn.citylab.com/media/img/citylab/2015/11/carsonmap/lead_large.jpg?1447864981

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:09 (eight years ago)

to be fair, who ever really spends any time in upper new england?

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:11 (eight years ago)

god, that was classic

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:12 (eight years ago)

https://twitter.com/KatyTurNBC/status/795797474564771840

if this happened in 2012 it would be one of two or three events from the campaign that everyone remembered. instead, it barely rates a blip.

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:20 (eight years ago)

also, every time we wonder what trump will do, he does the worst possible thing, so i'm going to bet he either

He tells all of America "You're Fired!"

Elvis Telecom, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:24 (eight years ago)

Where did Oklahoma go?

jmm, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:24 (eight years ago)

those two things might not be opposed. the idea that whoever comes out of the GOP primary process will :automatically: get > 40% of the electorate means that another, more practiced demagogue could easily end up in this position in 2020, 2024...

i worry about that too, which is why i'm hoping the demographic trends will continue to diminish the chances that a white nationalist demagogue can take the Presidency.

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:25 (eight years ago)

how have we not figured out what we're going to call Bill Clinton yet

flappy bird, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:30 (eight years ago)

First Lech

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:30 (eight years ago)

This question from almost a year ago is still unanswered on the eve of the election. How far we've come.

Has Trump mentioned how he plans on doing any of the things he's proposed? I mean, I know that there's something really wrong that we need to figure out, and I know that things are going to be terrific and that some people are losers and there will be a wall with a door in it, but has he actually put forth any kind of actionable platform? At all? I suspect that I know the answer to that question but the answer terrifies me in light of his level of support so I need to ask the question anyway.

― Meat Sheet (Old Lunch), Wednesday, 20 January 2016 14:27 (nine months ago) Permalink

i need microsoft installed on my desktop, can you help (Old Lunch), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:31 (eight years ago)

Ever since Jan. 1993, Bill's formally been called Mr. President. Seems like that won't quite work any more on a political level. In purely pragmatic terms, it isn't like he'd be mistaken for Madam President or anything.

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:33 (eight years ago)

Mr. Pre-President

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:37 (eight years ago)

i know this is probably just my own weird hang-up, but i've always taken faint exception to people who continued to be referred to by a position they no longer hold. "mr. senator"/"mme. secretary"/"mr. president"/etc. these aren't hereditary positions. they aren't academic or professional credentials. they're just jobs that you have, and then you don't have.

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:37 (eight years ago)

First Guy

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:37 (eight years ago)

or rather, i don't take exception to the PEOPLE but to the PRACTICE of continuing to refer to them with the title of a position they once held.

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:38 (eight years ago)

feel like we should be able to call him big mouth billy bass to his dumb face

6 god none the richer (m bison), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:42 (eight years ago)

in other news, alex jones (and his rhetorical style) makes a lot more sense when you realize he's like a snake-charming, holy-rolling, speaking-in-tongues evangelist preacher w/o the christianity:

https://twitter.com/immolations/status/794740487613726720

wizzz! (amateurist), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:46 (eight years ago)

the sun, the best newspaper in the world, reports

“I’ve already told my husband that if I’m so fortunate enough to be president and he will be the first gentleman, I expect him to go to work to make sure we get those jobs growing and incomes rising,” she said at a campaign event.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2132414/bill-hillary-clinton-us-election-2016-name/

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:47 (eight years ago)

the alex jones package also includes the christianity. the pentecostal comparison is pretty apt though. he would have fit right in my church

I look forward to hearing from you shortly, (Karl Malone), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 04:48 (eight years ago)

I'm watching in suspense as Dixville Notch, NH counts all the ballots in town (8)

flappy bird, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:05 (eight years ago)

https://pkremp.github.io/pr_decisive_vote.html

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwtuHkEXcAAIikI.jpg

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:07 (eight years ago)

new hampshire's gotta be higher than 1 in 1 million

Treeship, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:08 (eight years ago)

4 for Hillary, 2 for Trump, 1 for Johnson, 1 write-in for Romney

flappy bird, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:08 (eight years ago)

i forgot to say this earlier because i was at work and only glancing at this thread surreptitiously but fuck glenn beck

Treeship, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:10 (eight years ago)

he has some nerve evolving after whipping up so much confusion and paranoia throughout the country. no mercy for him

Treeship, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:14 (eight years ago)

aw redemption is groovy treesh cmon

k3vin k., Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:16 (eight years ago)

4 for Hillary, 2 for Trump, 1 for Johnson, 1 write-in for Romney

that result makes me yearn so badly for Trump to get his twitter account back

a little too mature to be cute (Aimless), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:17 (eight years ago)

"Dixville Notch" is a fitting description of what we've been following for over a year now

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:29 (eight years ago)

Fuck.......here we go

blonde redheads have more fun (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:34 (eight years ago)

i just unfollowed rick wilson and all political reporters except costa. felt good.

𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:37 (eight years ago)

That dummy (and Liz Mair) are *still* playing up some sort of mysterious and always just out of reach oppo dump. The comments on their twitter feeds have been funny.

Josh in Chicago, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:48 (eight years ago)

hung out with a group of 30's-ish progressive seeming ppl here in denver today, mixed races, all male. the tally: 3 'not going to vote' (sample quote: 'i don't like feeling like i have to make a bad choice based on fear'), 1 'probably going to vote hillary', 1 'already voted, wrote in bernie'

yolo mostly (sleepingbag), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:50 (eight years ago)

tell your friend that not voting is making a bad choice based on fear

Al Moon Faced Poon (Moodles), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:52 (eight years ago)

Swing state or safe state?

nickn, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:54 (eight years ago)

not denver kentucky

xp my friend is perfectly capable of forming his own thoughts and conclusions afaict

yolo mostly (sleepingbag), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 05:57 (eight years ago)

i know this is probably just my own weird hang-up, but i've always taken faint exception to people who continued to be referred to by a position they no longer hold. "mr. senator"/"mme. secretary"/"mr. president"/etc

Or, you know, since President or Senator or Secretary are already titles, forget the fucking Mr and Mme stuff.

I hear from this arsehole again, he's going in the river (James Morrison), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 06:53 (eight years ago)

http://imgur.com/UdXa6e8

volunteered tonight at the local campaign hq to do data-entry. Place was jumpin'.

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 07:13 (eight years ago)

dammit. Here: http://i.imgur.com/UdXa6e8.jpg

(rocketcat) 🚀🐱 👑🐟 (kingfish), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 07:13 (eight years ago)

he has some nerve evolving after whipping up so much confusion and paranoia throughout the country. no mercy for him

― Treeship, Tuesday, November 8, 2016 5:14 AM (two hours ago)

i have as much contempt for glenn beck as any sane person but, like...ppl can change for the better, and if they can't, then we're all in a lot of trouble

(The Other) J.D. (J.D.), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 07:41 (eight years ago)

right i'm wondering if

a) the fact that an undisciplined, overtly hateful authoritarian nut job can get > 40% of the vote means that a more disciplined, smoother-edged authoritarian could win?

Only if they are already coast-to-coast famous and not a politician.

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 08:36 (eight years ago)

https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-0/p480x480/14980774_10154715945968588_6410478961559691573_n.jpg?oh=e250f8b488c62a32611fe667559ef728&oe=589081B5

Yeah, that's exactly who you think it is in the red coat.

a full playlist of presidential sex jams (C. Grisso/McCain), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 08:39 (eight years ago)

On which note I'm already curious about what the various media positions will be on the fame and newsworthiness of Donald Trump post-failed election. He won't have a show, he won't be running for president - if he holds a press conference a week later, who will turn up and who will go "we don't have to do this any more"?

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 08:47 (eight years ago)

I guess that xpost answers my question!

Andrew Farrell, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 08:47 (eight years ago)

glenn beck isn't "changing" he's a media personality testing new winds ffs.

The times they are a changing, perhaps (map), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 09:04 (eight years ago)

he has some nerve evolving after whipping up so much confusion and paranoia throughout the country. no mercy for him

― Treeship

10/10 best samwise gamgee impression

xiphoid beetlebum (rushomancy), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 09:29 (eight years ago)

voted, took about 25 minutes. longer than i expected at 6:15am, but invariably the line for my sub-district was far and away the longest

mookieproof, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 11:53 (eight years ago)

didn't get a sticker

mookieproof, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 11:54 (eight years ago)

Yeah they usually have cookies at mine too. Got nothing lol

(•̪●) (carne asada), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 12:03 (eight years ago)

Trump will change that!

The burrito of ennui (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 12:15 (eight years ago)

are we gonna have an election day thread?

jason waterfalls (gbx), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 12:19 (eight years ago)

May I suggest: "I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election if I win"

Distribution of all possible outcomes (Sanpaku), Tuesday, 8 November 2016 12:30 (eight years ago)

Wow. Whoa. That is some group of people. Thousands. - US Election Day 2016

Creames Fartpoop, Tuesday, 8 November 2016 12:36 (eight years ago)


This thread has been locked by an administrator

You must be logged in to post. Please either login here, or if you are not registered, you may register here.