2018 american midterm elections (national edition)

i bet there's like five similar polls ending that fateful november day or thereabouts : )

obvious typo in option 3 (which is going to lose this poll anyways (if anyone votes, that is))

the democrats win the house not the senate

I voted both in the spirit of optimism

took a cue from tombot and voted for what I want to happen

i believe that we will win

Язрцыісаиs иззd а sчsтзматіс роllіиg зггог то шіи тнз Ноцsз

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-need-a-systematic-polling-error-to-win-the-house/?

where's the independent administration of computerised voting booths?

house and not senate from everything I can gather. which is too bad

if the Dems don't lose any seats this time around that puts them in a good position to take it back in 2020 (along with the presidency, god willing)

ayo how does one watch election results on the west coast of the USA?

They smoke weed all morning, go surfing, take a nap, and then only start checking the news around midnight.

Actually everybody should do that imo.

Waking and baking, not sure if I’d like that

also very open to explanations of how I can go surfing

where's the independent administration of computerised voting booths?

― Sing The Mighty Beat (sic)

and where are the tax returns?

tbrr the 14 states should not have their votes counted towards any national tally

So house but not senate seems like most likely outcome. So basically a gridlocked two years with maybe some purely theatrical impeachment proceedings introduced that the senate will never sign onto, Trump gets nothing done legislatively but may get some more judges and even another supreme court justice. Economy probably crashes again some time in that period and Trump likely bungles the situation, but whether the electorate punishes him for it is anyone's guess -- probably would happen with any other president but who knows what happens with Trump. Debt bomb created by GOP tax plan probably leads to a govt fiscal crisis too when the recession hits.

Man I really hope we take the Senate.

tbrr the 14 states should not have their votes counted towards any national tally

― Sing The Mighty Beat (sic), Sunday, November 4, 2018 12:34 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

wtf? this kind of ahistoric jokey crap needs to stop, there are people in the south who bear some of the worst that our shitbox government dishes out, and they should not be disenfranchised just because they live in states that seceded more than 150 years ago

same goes for anyone saying red southern states "deserve" natural disasters or other such BS, knock it the fuck off already

dan otm

tbrr fp’d for racism

counterpoint: some people should be disenfranchised (we don’t really need TWO dakotas, do we?)

Язрцыісаиs иззd а sчsтзматіс роllіиg зггог то шіи тнз Ноцsз

worth noting that trump needed a systematic polling error to win the presidency. there are all sorts of assumptions built into the models, and minor adjustments to them can yield pretty different results.

i really like the whole NYT live polling thing: l, especially if you drill down into an individual race (like dave brat v spanberger: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-va07-3.html)

i realize that might be paywalled off for some people, or you might have run out of free articles for the month. but just to give you an idea, for each individual race they provide these kinds of alternative projections and then update the results in real-time as they conduct the poll:

https://i.imgur.com/imS0QOL.png

https://i.imgur.com/imS0QOL.png

oops, second image is supposed to be

https://i.imgur.com/P2Jfngx.png

tbrr fp’d for racism

it's a fair cop, I'm opposed to one Russian having the opportunity to control the vote for entire states over all the US citizens resident there

ahistoric jokey crap needs to stop, there are people in the south who bear some of the worst that our shitbox government dishes out, and they should not be disenfranchised just because they live in states that seceded more than 150 years ago

was not aware that New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Kansas and Indiana are in the south though, nor that any of them seceded, though, so thanks for the update

though,

(got distracted at that point in the sentence by looking them all up to check. apparently Kansas is disputed)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

Girding myself for Democrats winning the popular vote by 9% and still not winning the House.

really hope not!

9% would be hard. 6%, it could definitely happen.

whether it's 6 or 9, I doubt the results will be nice

Definitely not nice will be the inevitable conservative claims that voter fraud was a big problem, and the amplification of such claims by trump for weeks or years afterward

Heavily ironic because gerrymandering Russia bla bla bla

apparently Kansas is disputed

it sure was

you're saying neither the midwest nor the south want it? wow, racist

thought this was an interesting estimate

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-california-republicans-2018-election-analysis-20181105-story.html

To calculate the size of the Republican base, just look at the president’s job-approval number. Find that loyal Trump supporter, goes the logic, and you’re looking at a voter who will stick with Republican candidates through hell or high water.

That number, according to a recent poll, is about 39% of statewide likely voters.

The nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that this core group of GOP voters is centered among the ranks of white male voters. Many live near San Diego or in the Central Valley. Most are registered Republicans, though some are unaffiliated “independent” voters. Many attended college but didn’t leave with a degree.

why did we ever create this awful stupid discursive category of the independent/swing voter as if everyone disillusioned by the present order is angry for the same reasons

because you only have to promise some vague change to get a swathe of em?

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

11 pessimists, 16 delusional optimists

I voted for “republicans keep congress,” but I think the realty will be we win the house by a much smaller margin than we anticipated and we lose all of the tight high-profile contests. I worry we’ll all depressed about a media narrative centered around “what happened to the blue wave?” Likewise, we’ll also be dismayed by low voter turnout and unexpectedly motivated republicans.

I don’t know. I’m not in a good place.

turnout is legit this time, though. it's almost to the level of a presidential turnout in texas.

in NYC, to echo Sean Connery in that Huston-Kipling movie, look at the SHIZE of out ballot! We have to tear it in half to scan it.

Here's how to not mess up the two-page (double-sided!) ballot on November 6. Thanks, @courtneycgross! #NY1Politics pic.twitter.com/Dd746fP2VB

— Spectrum News NY1 (@NY1) November 5, 2018

that ballot isn't even half as complicated as the California one

I lovd paper ballots.

I'm just imagining that a yawning chasm will open and swallow the entire country into some belching hellpit tomorrow night so that whatever actually happens will be a comparatively pleasant surprise.

i sure hope cozy bear and fancy bear have a plan to make up for the dems' 10 point generic ballot advantage

Facebook has blocked more than 100 accounts it believes may be engaging in “coordinated inauthentic behavior” hours before the midterm elections, launching an investigation into whether the accounts are linked to any foreign entities attempting to interfere in the election.

Wow, more than 100. Thanks, Facebook.

They should just shut down Facebook for a week.

Gleicher said the investigation began Sunday evening with a tip from U.S. law enforcement, which discovered the suspicious online activity.

So the fuckers didn't even know what was going on until the feds told them. Good job, dickheads.

They should just shut down Facebook for a week.

Obvious, I know, but I had to.

Just waking up, how are those returns looking?

Excellent. Excellent returns.

where are they?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrUugl7XgAEk7DX.jpg

I'm glad I never saw this the day my lager was spiked with LSD.

lol

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/05/voting-machine-errors-texas-georgia-2018-elections-midterms-959980

The errors — which experts have blamed on outdated software and old machines — would appear to work to the advantage of Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke, and that of Georgia GOP gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp over Democrat Stacey Abrams.

you don't say. how could this have happened

Hundreds of people in line at Erasmus high in BK waiting to scan their ballots because of broken scanners. Good system pic.twitter.com/9keg8EfXiF

— Hamilton Nolan (@hamiltonnolan) November 6, 2018

NYC city council prez has called on the head of the Board of Elections to resign, etc, bcz of today's chaos.

http://gothamist.com/2018/11/06/midterm_elections_day_liveblog_2018.php#photo-1

The line to vote at my polling place this morning was very long, and it took about 2 hours to vote instead of twenty minutes.

didn't even know what was going on until the feds told them.

tbf, the NSA has a much more robust system for monitoring the content of Facebook than Facebook is ever likely to develop.

2 hours! It took me 15 minutes, but everything was working. Still 10 minutes longer than a typical year.

I voted early, but fwiw it was fast but still more or less one in, one out. My wife went to our regular polling station at 8am this morning and had to wait a while.

Quick and easy, I was out in 5 minutes. Three people walked in ahead of me (at 7:45 AM), two more had arrived by the time I left.

tbf, the NSA has a much more robust system for monitoring the content of Facebook than Facebook is ever likely to develop.

My line was out the door, but it turned out that was just for those with last names M-Z! The A-L cool kids could just walk right in.

This was exactly the reverse of the last presidential election, so I wonder if all of the other A-Ls from last time were deterred/voted early/decided to come at a different time?

My polling place was busy, but they had loads of machines (9 in one precinct out of five for a pop. 7000 town), done in five minutes.

i switched polling places so i can't make a direct comparison but it definitely didn't feel like a usual midterm turnout, i had to wait in line for a few minutes which i haven't had to even in the presidential ones before

I'm glad I voted today instead of early. Took me 15 minutes tops vs at least 1 1/2 hours for early.

538 real-time forecast is 14/15 chance dems take the house, 1/6 they take the senate

i give them a 666% chance of taking both

I miss the other thread

voted in a nearly empty bingo hall in the mountains, there was a man rocking a baby and threatening to send it to jail for breaking election laws

Way early, but McGrath doing OK in KY:

Amy McGrath (D) is now up almost 10% over Andy Barr (R) in Kentucky with 44% reporting.

Trump won in this district by 16%.

— Michael Del Moro (@MikeDelMoro) November 7, 2018

domald twump

I know conservative rural counties report first in Senate and Governor races, but it is nerve wracking to watch

well Sherrod Brown is projected to win at least

it's seriously depressing on how many people will still vote for the GOP candidate.

CLARE MALONE 7:54 PM
An interesting little tidbit from the preliminary exit polls out of Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is fighting for his seat: 53 percent said that Donnelly’s vote against Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation was important in deciding their midterm vote.

Election day should be a mandatory half day of work everywhere and a full day of fwork where it can be.

theres a ballot initiative here that will effective ban fracking and literally every politician in the state is against it and i want it to win so bad

was not aware that New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Kansas and Indiana are in the south though, nor that any of them seceded, though, so thanks for the update

― Sing The Mighty Beat (sic), Sunday, November 4, 2018 3:09 PM (two days ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Oh hey, sorry, 14 states seceded to the Confederacy. I didn't read the article. Everything else I said still applies.

Shalala Wins!

Seems like Donnelly might be in a tight spot. Everything else seems roughly in line with expectations

Lmao Manchin is on the ropes apparently

I early voted in 2016, and had to sit in a room full of working class Trumpsters for 2 hours. I returned to voting in person this time, and of course being a suburban Republican precinct walked to the table, handed my DL, and was in a voting booth within 45 sec.

No elections were remotely competitive, but there was an important constitutional amendment referendum, that might give Louisiana less racist unanimous jury decisions, like the rest of the country.

Shalala Wins!

― I like queer. You like queer, senator? (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn),

some good news! a house seat that has turned from R to D

Also a seat the RNC spent $1.5m on

Wexton also projected to beat Comstock in VA 10, so another flip from R to D

It looked grim for a while.

538 House tracker went from 7/8 chance of D winning back down to 6/7. -___-

it's at 11/12 right now

btw it should be illegal to report percent share of the vote if the returns are below, say, 20%. I feel strongly about this

― k3vin k., Tuesday, November 6, 2018 7:45 PM (twenty-one minutes ago)

on a related note

it's at 11/12 right now

I'm seeing 4/5! But then again you are in the future.

now down to 4/5 indeed

uh can we not watch that

I voted by my so watching that is my participation by proxy for today.

*voted by mail

God damn it kevin, what the fuck.

I object, for the record

Also at the risk of death by k3v, Beto is up 59-40 with < 1% reporting.

Sheldon Whitehouse is already projected as winner in RI with 1% reporting

Yes please let's post more early projections

i vow to never again watch the cursed needle

thats prob bexar county early vote results

http://home.bexar.org/el45a.htm

I get why they report odds but as you get up into the 80s and 90s as percentages the odds changes feel more drastic than they are. You’re talking about like 2% shifts. Posting them here is probably not useful.

{xp sleeve I was just pointing out that the percentage of votes tallied doesn't necessarily correlate with statistical projections, it depends on the race)

i hate florida

No no I'm in favor of anything that annoys k3vin "everything I don't like should be illegal" k3lller, carry on

hi!

Xp

So, heard there's a big election tonight

John Cox is neck and neck with Gavin Newsom in CA GOV.

Goddamn it, I totally lied about peacing out earlier 'cause I keep poking into this thread when I'm supposed to be watching goddamn Ghost Protocol and having a good ol' apolitical time instead of actively courting another goddamn panic attack, but okay now I think I'm going to watch Enter the Ninja and that should keep me sufficiently distracted until this beer finally knocks my old ass out. Everything sounds good, though, so...maybe we're gonna be okay. Maybe. Y'all are still here and you're a bunch of good eggs, so that bodes well, right? Sure it does. Okay, time to go watch ninjas and further foster a fun workday hangover.

John Cox is neck and neck with Gavin Newsom in CA GOV.

― Captain Hardchord (Leee), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 5:22 PM

lol

shalalalalalalala la la di da

la di da

I’m going to this fuckin election night party that a friend set up but I’m gonna try to convince people to play Dasharez0ne’s card game for as long as possible.

Kind of flying blind a bit right now, but I basically see the Democrats hitting expectations well-educated suburbs but the GOP outperforming expectations in more conservative areas

— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 7, 2018

Getting serious PTSD here

i hope this doesn't distract mr. trump's international friends from helping out tonight

https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/415258-russian-oligarch-who-bought-mansion-from-trump-arrested-on

Fuckin Florida holy shit

not even sure what Nate Cohn means by "more conservative areas" so I'm going to ignore that tweet

You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.

Is Gillum really going to lose this? Did not think that would be close but he’s down by 80k

hope Gillum isn't going to lose

Bob Menendez is projected to win in NJ

The fivethirtyeight tracker has made me so anxious that I don't reckon I'll sleep now, and one of their staff has put up a note saying "the model is being too aggressive" fucks sake, why do I read it, I am such an idiot.

Florida better turn around in these late tallied votes

Haha, back in September I wen on Twitter and @-messaged the Republican running against Marcia Fudge in OH-11, after she made comments to the press that Cuyahoga County had only been able to pass an LGBTQIA protection ordinance because there were too many illiterate blacks who don't understand the Bible. I told her how much I was looking forward to voting against her. I just went on there to gloat that she had lost a full percentage of the vote from her 2016 run and she had blocked me. Snowflakes!

Makes more sense than my RUSSIANS HACKED 538 mental thrashing.

NICE, ELIZA.

Broward is 50% in and Gillum has a 200K lead in those votes. Right now he's down 80k.

a couple other counties have yet to get close to finished where he's winning handily.

we'll see...

Carville on MSNBC just now: "It's not going to be a wave election."

— Karen Tumulty (@ktumulty) November 7, 2018

Fuck this stupid country

Just got kicked out of Steve King’s election night party!

King’s son Jeff, who is the campaign chairman, told me to leave the building.

— Christopher Mathias (@letsgomathias) November 7, 2018

When I asked why, he said to refer to a statement given to @DMRegister, also banned from tonight’s party:

“We are not granting credentials to the Des Moines Register or any other leftist propaganda media outlet with no concern for reporting the truth.”

— Christopher Mathias (@letsgomathias) November 7, 2018

What buttrods!

Jfc will y'all that are overreacting to small morsels of data just stfu.

One more gin and I’m going to bed, since MN races are gonna be close and I can see no benefit in pulling an all-nighter.

closing this thread until like 10 or so, yall be good

might just pop into the election thread a few hours after poll close BUH BUH BUH WHATS THIS?!?!??

I have to say I'm a little disappointed in 538's real-time models, they seem exquisitely sensitive to short-term changes, feel like they should report confidence intervals or something. like it's just not realistic to go from 19/20 to 3/5 in an hour

if any of these elections in FL and GA etc. end up being very close you can almost guarantee that voter suppression played the decisive role.

Jfc will y'all that are overreacting to small morsels of data just stfu.

― fuck the NRA (Neanderthal), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 5:39 PM

not all of the morsels are small

Posting the situation in the ca gov race before the polls have closed seems like a pretty small morsel

yes but that was a joke

jim fuckin jordan

I hate him so much

Also re: news media it is their job to make us keep watching so hyping up gains made against expectation and/or hyperventilating over close races is SOP. Drink gin, go to sleep if you possibly can.

Special shout-out to the BBC for doing that, BTW.

Oh good you’re all losing your shit

i just got home and started looking at results so far. re: 538's live forecasts:

Well, I'm trying to do 6 things at once -- we think our live election day forecast is definitely being too aggressive and are going to put it on a more conservative setting where it waits more for projections/calls instead of making inferences from partial vote counts.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 7, 2018

florida, though. :( jfc

Can someone bring me some more beer?

i was going to go to the party of the local indivisible-type group, but i was having flashbacks to being at the Dem party in 2016 and i can't handle that again.

Polls haven't even closed in the midwest and the blue wave is already dead!

Don’t look at real time forecasts

Donnelly voted out! fuck!

NBC News: Donna Shalala is the winner in FL-27. Dem pickup

— Mike Memoli (@mikememoli) November 7, 2018

Good, this was one of the worst dem candidates imo

silby otm

otm xpost

I was kidding btw

I am rehearsing Assassins and almost sobbed in my first scene.

This is killin me the waiting

Dpnnelly being voted out is just...
]
how can people be so stupid

I know but plenty of other people ain’t

Manchin wins.

We got a Dem gov again.

Machine or no?

Billionaire.

Floridians have approved a referendum restoring voting rights to more than 1 million ex-felons — a huge win for democracy.

— Jacobin (@jacobinmag) November 7, 2018

I always vow not to do thd thing of six hours of newscasters saying "candidate X is way up with 5% of precincts reporting / oh wait now candidate Y has a huge lead; but we haven't yet seen numbers from Z County, which has a lot of left-handed Swedish dental hygienists, who are expected to break for the challenger."

Sometimes I even kinda follow my advice.

I don’t know if that’s better.

Donnelly going down is depressing. He sucked but was more useful than the guy taking the baton.

Jennifer Wexton wins in Virginia 10th district. Dem pickup!

fuck, MARSHA BLACKBURN is going to be a US Senator! I can't stand it

Corey Stewart and Barbara Comstock losing? Expected, but still heartening. Kim Davis losing is gravy.

If Spanberger or Gillum manage to win I will be able to relax and sleep soundly.

Beto pulling an upset, or confirmation of the House flipping, would mean champagne and partying in the streets.

AP calls Barr (R) in KY-6. That was the race that several pollsters said would set the stage for the toss-ups.

This is bad

Treesh plz take several xanax and log off

Cohn has adjusted his forecast from D+40 to D+32.

How many do they need to take the house again ?

28

I thought it was 23

manchin

he's back

it's 23

xp: yeah 23!!!

He also conceded that he is not employing the needle yet (or at all).... that does not sound good.

guess who's back
back again
manchin's back
tell a friend

wish he would manch less

My manchin's back and you're gonna be in trouble

Come on, freaking out is one of the left’s oldest traditions.

Well, there was a time not long ago when we mostly weren't freaking out but should have been

Maybe you heard about it, it was in all the papers

there's a weird dynamic where i know that there's a strong chance the dems don't take the house, but that conflicts with some small inner voice saying that surely, /surely/ after two years of this awfulness enough people will see what's going on and vote dem. but they same thing, more or less, was true in nov. 2016 -- trump's awfulness was plainly evident and he still won. people are no better, on average, now than they were 2 years ago. so nothing should surprise me. and yet.

no one's calling House races in about 10 minutes

all the talk is about the Senate and governors

They were supposed to have an 85% chance to win

FL-26 is looking optimistic for the left (another one of those blue-wave bellwether races).

Also VA-7 and VA-2.

Somebody's got a case of the "Supposed To"'s...

Pleasepleaseplease (but also I'm supposed to be pretending to be cavalier for another few hours and not microtracking)

My boy Republican Carlos Curbelo hanging on by his teeth.

are DeSantis and Scott really going to win?

Looking like it.

Arent they still counting the miami suburbs?

fuck

Texas Gov. called for Abbott.

Florida race close enough for recount, I think.

oh, good

Oh hey, sorry, 14 states seceded to the Confederacy.

now who's posting ahistoric crap! :)

definitely going to take this exchange as hoos endorsing Kemp and his tactics forever and keep stewing beef tho

I didn't read the article.

I was talking about the use of compromised and already vote-flipping electronic voting in "2018 american midterm elections," or anywhere ever

took me 20 minutes to get that through xposts, and now CNN are doing projections on "let's pretend" propositions

k3vin otm

MSNBC predicts House control to Dems went up from 65 to 70 percent.

well, that's something, I guess

Look, I can't lie: the Florida news has been enervating. What will perk me up if news doesn't improve from Broward County makeup votes is the series of House races that remain to be called.

WHOA

Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeats Republican Carlos Curbelo

curbelo stomped

Texas Gov. called for Abbott.

Absolutely bizarre that in the year of Beto we couldn't find someone more exciting than a mediocre sheriff.

FUCK YES

Curbelo's my congressman

infuriating to think about these house results if every map was like pennsylvania's

Not for long, Alf!

debbie stabenow is more of a fight than expected

538 and CNN all saying things looking better for Dems in House...raised odds

NYT has it at 95% Dem lol

aaaaand Dems pick up a Kansas seat

gay and Native American

what's the matter with kansas

iron stache goes down :(

Kris Kobach went down!

guys, I'm feeling....better

A Desantis and Voldemort FL is goimg to wreck me if it happens but getting the House will at least ease my anxiety

debbie stabenow is more of a fight than expected

Maybe

Oakland and Wayne have not reported.

strikes hourly gong

anyway sorry abt time zones to y'all on the east coast, go to bed ok

Senator Romney!

Needles are live:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-house-forecast.html

Noooo Ironstache

Maybe

Oakland and Wayne have not reported.

― Allen (etaeoe), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 10:00 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah that's the key in michigan, but that gives me some 2016 flashbacks

NBC News: Max Rose wins NY-11. Dem pickup

— Mike Memoli (@mikememoli) November 7, 2018

staten island

Dems sweeping now

is it a lock that Kobach's done? i don't want to fire up the popcorn just yet but salting it with his tears would be so tasty.

Ugh Florida

Gonna be fucking weird if Florida goes down but Pelosi becomes the speaker.

538/ABC forecast up to 90% for house

Hehitkamp goes down, according to MSNBC, not a surprise.

man fucking Kris Kobach goes down by TEN points to date

VA-10 was good, VA-2 is better, get VA-7 and I'll move back home

Ted Cruz, fuck

That Max Rose result is a pretty surprising upset beyond basic #bluewave expectations. That's certainly driving some optimism in the modeling.

I've been seeing this Max Rose ad for a couple of weeks and I swear I thought he was some third-party weirdo, not the Democratic candidate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5a4MaJNhHQ

colorado just elected america's first openly gay governor

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/jared-polis-colorado-gay-governor/index.html

dammit

VA-2 looks like a done deal!

Dems may win 10 state races in Texas. That's good.

Beto isnt done yet

the race has been called

The NY-11 (Max Rose) upset is so unexpected that it doesn't show up on neither NYT's nor 538's "most competitive/key races" drill down.

SHAOLIN

No it hasn’t?

Pete Sessions looks like he lost too

Very glad to see Dave Brat go down. What a shitbag he is.

11 seats flipped, almost half way there.

where are ppl getting this beto losing stuff?

538

Brat lost? that's good

He's out, but I didn't expect him to.

Beto, that is

MSNBC predicts Dems will gain control.

Cnn’s numbers make no sense then. The last time they checked in on texas they had hundreds of thousands of votes still to count and a slim margin.

Another major upset in the making in OK-05 (Oklahoma City), Kendra Horn holds a +1.6% advantage with 88% of precincts reporting.

FIRST NATIVE AMERICAN WOMAN IN CONGRESS IN @sharicedavids!!!! https://t.co/qPEzo9Z2Za

— Clara Jeffery (@ClaraJeffery) November 7, 2018

I voted for “republicans keep congress,” but I think the reality will be we win the house by a much smaller margin than we anticipated and we lose all of the tight high-profile contests. I worry we’ll all depressed about a media narrative centered around “what happened to the blue wave?” Likewise, we’ll also be dismayed by low voter turnout and unexpectedly motivated republicans.

I was wrong about turnout! Otherwise, oof.

Erik Paulson just lost to Dean Phillips I am so happy about that here in MN

heitkamp is out

Fucccccck

I mean they won the house I guess.

Way too early to call Cruz/Beto, only 30% reporting:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/06/us/elections/results-texas-elections.html

look at this dumbass shit

https://i.imgur.com/rJIWqia.png

Thats what i saw too but nbc and 538 called it apparently

Treeship's nerves can't handle that sorta thing

The commonwealth beckons, silby. I will buy you a drink at Mad Fox when you return.

Fox ! Was calling it for house dem control like an hour ago apparently

So glad about Stewart and Comstock; Brat losing? Delicious.

Why do people mention me specifically when other people are posting similar things?

b/c you're more famous!

and beloved

CNN calling 80% in in Texas - the raw votes are already 1.5X the 2014 vote so that sounds about right

Treeship, what's your favorite Gilmore Girls episode?

Very early, but JD is up on King in IA-4.

What's on treeship's ipod?

Apparently there are two Native American women going to Congress - Debra Haaland is winning in New Mexico.

Fuck Dems gettin killed in the senate. Not really sure how much difference there is between 50 and 55 though if they get the House. So...this is as expected, I guess?

I can't stress how weird this is that the evening is going in our direction but Florida is not

Leonard Lance might still go down in NJ - it's a dead heat at the moment.

Looking rough for Cordray

The Democrats are on track to win 230 house seats and the national popular vote by 9.4%. The number of seats would be higher without gerrymandering -- in the range of 240-250. https://t.co/UGODA4ekLt

— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) November 7, 2018

I can't stress how weird this is that the evening is going in our direction but Florida is not

Your state sucks, dude. Sorry you're the last to know.

eh fuck you

Florida's cool and I'll miss Sanibel Island when it's underwater

Florida swings unexpectedly beyond your glib shit, unperson.

Breaking: this bottle of red wine is down %100 with %100 percent of districts reporting

NYT/Cohn calling the House flipped to Dems.

Dems may win 10 state races in Texas. That's good

And to some extent, Beto at the top of the ticket helped make that happen. Thank him for being an exciting candidate who brought voters out, even if he doesn't unseat Lyin' Ted.

Dems have flipped 13 seats to 1.

Also i love every one of you crazy motherfuckers

m@ what's on your iPod Nintendo Switch

Breaking: this bottle of red wine is down %100 with %100 percent of districts reporting

― Greta Van Fleek (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 7:34 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Confirming this report from the west coast

Shireen Ghorbani looks poised for an upset in UT-02.

You are a light in the murk, UMS. Thank you.

Beto mojo apparently a no-go, bros. Alas.

Enough symbolic enemies are symbolically vanquished to allow cautious optimism. Kobach, Kim Davis, Corey Stewart, Comstock, Brat.

it is so early that looking at the results is ridiculous, but JD Scholten is ahead of Steve King

rip pete sessions, kris kobach, brat

senator mitt romney

God i hope steve king loses

If JD beats King, I'll post the airbnb DMs between him & I.

I can't stress how weird this is that the evening is going in our direction but Florida is not

― I like queer. You like queer, senator? (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 10:29 PM (nine minutes ago)

it's not really though is it? more like according to expectations

They dont seem to be outperforming expectations by aby means

I don't have any DMs between me & Andrew Janz but if he beats Nunes, I will never post here again (possibly untrue).

Breaking: this bottle of red wine is down %100 with %100 percent of districts reporting

― Greta Van Fleek (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 10:34 PM (six minutes ago)

lmao

i jinxed everything by thinking that gillum was generally favored to win, going off the last several days of polling

more like according to expectations

Gillum was such a vast contrast to DeSantis that it makes it nearly unbearable to see DeSantis get the Florida Electorate Seal of Approval. I feel for you, Alfred.

BLAME KARL

Karl u didn't jinx shit you are a singularity of goodness in the universe

how could the polling be that wrong. fuck this country

silby that's very nice, but also part of my evil plan

you all fell for it! finally i can uncross my toes

i work for ted cruz
he has to pee

Dan do u remember 2 years ago when the polling was…wrong

The boring story is the more correct story: the outcomes aren't really that unexpected, and stability was more important than change.

This is why there are no political scientists on cable news, @cwarshaw. Zzzz. (5/5)

— John Sides (@johnmsides) November 7, 2018

(great short thread leading into that)

I solemnly predict that before ted cruz gets off the pot, he will shit.

silver cruz lining:

does this set him up to run for president in 2024, meaning that he would NOT run for senate again in 2024, and then if he lost he'd just fuck off for life? (before president ivanka trump nominates him as chief justice)

i think that's precisely cruz's plan tbh.

so pleased that mother fucker kobach lost.

also for the NYC people, this is truly the worst shit in the NY senate, and it looks like he miiiiiight lose

With 193 of 202 districts reporting, Andrew Gounardes is leading Marty Golden by 1K votes. pic.twitter.com/2aAtuEyzFt

— Josefa Velasquez (@J__Velasquez) November 7, 2018

he probably wants to run against an incumbent Democrat in 2024 for that matter

NBC News: Abigail Spanberger is the apparent winner of VA-07. Dem gain

— Mike Memoli (@mikememoli) November 7, 2018

i'll stop embedding tweets soon, but this is encouraging

Medicaid expansion ballot measures looking good in early returns

· Nebraska: 58% in favor (32% reporting)
· Utah: 63% in favor (21% reporting)

— Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) November 7, 2018

mia love trailing in utah too.

utah could be about to send 2/4 democrats to congress. utah!

Honestly gutting to see desantis beat gillum

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5c/Virginia_is_for_Lovers_Logo.jpg

If that is indeed what has happened

"Yeah, I know: political science buzzkill and all that." blah blah blah. fuck John Sides, and fuck you for posting that.

florida is rough. and the senate is slightly worse than median expectation i think.

but everything else is good afaict.

gah, heitkamp is out

Gillum starting his presidential campaign at his concession

Kansas lurches left tonight. In addition to the project wins for governor and in the 3rd district there’s a verrrrry close race in Kansas’ 2nd (eastern half of the state). If Davis pulls it out, half of Kansas’ U.S. representatives will likely be Democrats. pic.twitter.com/uIarKj9BGM

— Matt Pearce 🦅 (@mattdpearce) November 7, 2018

Confirming this report from the west coast

bottle here down 76% to 84% after this prompt, I picked up some 8% beers this arvo in prep but we have 3 bottles of sparkling in case of good news

fuck, Gillum conceding

15 minutes of xposts

rings gong

China here. I gotta hand it to y'all, for the optimal blend of informative and entertaining streaming coverage of election night, you take the cake.

Sucks

NY very good tonight

Whoa: @DelgadoforNY19 prevails in NY 19 against incumbent John Faso in a district that Trump carried and is 80% white. And against a barrage of utterly racist ads.

— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) November 7, 2018

China here. I gotta hand it to y'all, for the optimal blend of informative and entertaining streaming coverage of election night, you take the cake.

gah

This is an example of a small race that would'nt get any attention

But it's looking like Dave Hutch a totally good bro who my friend has worked on his campaign is looking like he's gonna beat Rich Stanek, a complete racist David Clarke style racist shitbag for Hennepin County sheriff, which is huge and will actually make a lot of people more safe esp people of color

...Although near impossible to get a word in edgewise thru vpn

China is too big to be represented by one ilx account

Gillum is making an amazing concession speech, whatever it's worth

nate silver's hair is a national disaster

Bob Hugin refused to call Menendez to concede, proving that he was exactly the piece of shit he seemed like.

I hate this country. just full of racists and bigots

DiNicola (D) is up +1 with 81% reporting in PA-16 which was not forecasted to be as close as this.

This is so my shit

With fifteen minutes til polls close Reclaim Idaho is driving around street canvassing. Never stop working pic.twitter.com/qwLZUeINHe

— kill 💀 tim 💀 faust (@crulge) November 7, 2018

Tina Smith - D - called for Senate in special election for Al Franken's seat

Keith Ellison not called but up by good margin in MN Attorney General election

nate silver's hair is a national disaster

― k3vin k., Tuesday, November 6, 2018 11:03 PM (four seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

nate silvers hair defiles modeling

dems win ny state senate -- trifecta

At least the democrats control one chamber of congress now. It makes a big difference.

The Gillum loss is such a pisser, I was just telling my mom that the surging progressive coalition in FL and GA is so inspiring...now this racist dirtbag is the winner? I figured Kemp would take it too but GODDAMN

Goodnight

good night, sweet treesh

tah

At least the democrats control one chamber of congress now. It makes a big difference.

― Trϵϵship, Tuesday, November 6, 2018 11:04 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

love to investigate

Angie Craig up on asshole fuckface Jason Lewis

http://www.mrlovenstein.com/comic/921?fbclid=IwAR2lPCkpCPujIZKWkAGwOqXzp1Pb6fZtiBgAvBgZmHVyD3E6jJHWFahavKk

fox calling mizzou for hawley

btw, JJJusten won his City Council race in W. St. Paul.

btw, JJJusten won his City Council race in W. St. Paul.

― WmC, Tuesday, November 6, 2018 8:09 PM (thirty-one seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

!!!!!!!!

I have to say I am disgusted with Floridians tonight.

I am a native. I've lived here 37 years. I haven't had a democratic governor since I was a teen. I also hate Rick Scott. To pretend I'm not buggered by the thought of both of them in our state is a lie.

But looking on the FB walls of my friends and colleagues who lean Dem, two...TWO have mentioned the House. A few have called this a repeat of 2016. Talked of fleeing the country or getting ready for 2020. Nobody celebrating the likely return of the House.

It makes me wonder if we actually give a shit about people outside our goddamn peninsula. Like...imagine if Gillum and Nelson both win, but we lose the House. I half expect these same people would be dancing in the streets when we just experienced a national disaster?

The House was always my main focus, State my secondary. A few friends brushed off the House news. Like...i don't get how someone can hate Trump, and spend all night ignoring the bit of news that kicks the fucker in the teeth.

I'm going to bed with mixed feelings but this was no 2016.

"cigar came to life" peter king currently losing to liuba grechen shirley with 17 districts remaining!

likely meaningless at this stage but the carbon pricing measure in WA is ahead as of the first WA ballot drop

btw, JJJusten won his City Council race in W. St. Paul.

― WmC, Tuesday, November 6, 2018 11:09 PM (two minutes ago)

LFG!!!!

Kim Schrier ahead in WA-08

Biggest upset of the night is called:

Kendra Horn unseats incumbent Steve Russell in OK-5. This seat was considered Safe Republican by Ballotpedia, NYT, 538, etc.

In 2016 he won +19. In 2014 he won +24. This is huge.

btw, JJJusten won his City Council race in W. St. Paul.

― WmC, Tuesday, November 6, 2018 8:09 PM (thirty-one seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

!!!!!!!!

Lizzie Fletcher is currently leading in Texas District 7. Her opponent in an ugly race is 9-term GOP jackwagon John Culberson.

"cigar came to life" peter king currently losing to liuba grechen shirley with 17 districts remaining!

If Peter King goes down I will rejoice. I hate that fucker.

Leonard Lance might go down in NJ, too. It's close but he's currently losing.

jjj!!!

imo, at first the newly Democratic House should confine itself to investigations not yet undertaken by Mueller's team or instigated as a result of the Mueller investigation. It will be time to open that can o' worms if Trump tries to suppress the entire Mueller report. A competent committee investigation should be able to glue all the pieces back together quickly enough to bring it all back into the light by the end of 2019.

JJJusten won his City Council race in W. St. Paul.

HUGE congratulations, jj.!

40% of black men in Florida got the right to vote today. Things may well be different down the line.

take it to I Love Illuminati

oh wait that's a secret borad mods please delete

jk congrats JJJ Twin Cities gonna rock a little harder

fuck yoooooooooooooooooooooou

BREAKING: @agounardes beats @SenMartyGolden in 22nd district.

— Sam Adler-Bell (@SamAdlerBell) November 7, 2018

stepping back into this thread and pleased to find mostly good news, FL and TX aside. gonna stay tuned for the West Coast stuff.

Best Congressperson Ever Pramila Jayapal has like 85% of the vote in WA-07, this isn't important I just love her

Dug into the archives for this one. Here's Democratic U.S. Representative-elect Colin Allred sacking the hell out of Rhett Bomar. pic.twitter.com/YevXaG8axi

— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog) November 7, 2018

IA-04 starting to look verrrry close

scholten up on count so far, and the later it gets the more the NYT forecast breaks toward him (current median estimate with them is king by 1.8, was king by 4 30 minutes ago)

YESSS Kate Brown wins Gov in OR and all the terrible ballot measures lost

JJ first ilxor in office? Too awesome

or is he?

congrats jj but just as a principle i dont believe posters shd be allowed to hold office

you have to resign mod in order to hold office

Don't know if it was posted above but Greg "body slam" Gianforte is out.

he's going to have to recuse himself from his threads, who wants the pedals thread and who wants the thread about his child

yes esp mods xxxp

Don't know if it was posted above but Greg "body slam" Gianforte is out.

― grawlix (unperson), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 8:26 PM (five seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

haha eat shit

xxposts can't believe oppo didn't dig up any of jjj's old posts

*thinks back to the r4c3 w4r incident*

wait that was jon/via/c

oh rly? fuck

IL-14 is another great story and a great win:

Lauren Underwood, a nurse who worked in President Barack Obama’s administration, sees an opening to flip a suburban and exurban district that has long supported Republicans. The incumbent, Representative Randy Hultgren, won by 19 points in 2016 and has a conservative voting record. Ms. Underwood, a self-identified progressive who grew up in suburban Chicago, has emphasized health care on the campaign trail. Mr. Hultgren’s seat is one of several that national Republicans are worried about losing because of President Trump’s lack of popularity in well-educated suburbs.

Don't know if it was posted above but Greg "body slam" Gianforte is out.

― grawlix (unperson), Tuesday, November 6, 2018

tasty. revenge really is delicious served cold. or at any temperature really.

was it jjj was upset about his government name showing up in the deathdr0ne thread?

IA-04 starting to look verrrry close

every district is looking strong but it's been a while so i don't know how much to be expect the Rs to be able to make up in unreported rural precincts

538 is leaning JD & NYT is leaning King.

Silver even called out Cohn on twitter. JD really is the best and hope he wins!

Don't know if it was posted above but Greg "body slam" Gianforte is out.

― grawlix (unperson), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 11:26 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

has anyone actually called this?

inspiring to see that the democrats took the house but can't help but think republicans will be emboldened by this. the governors and senate races are not going as hoped. I mean Gillum, O'Rouke, Abrams have been the biggest lights of the democratic party in this election cycle, and they all look like they're all going to lose. not to mention Nelson, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Donnelly. I hope Sinema and Rosen can win, but at this point I'm skeptical

was it jjj was upset about his government name showing up in the deathdr0ne thread?

― I have measured out my life in coffee shop loyalty cards (silby), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 11:29 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this sounds right iirc

lol election forecasting isnt accurate enough to be meaningful i hate it so much deport nate silver

I've become a hack. We have the House. Onward.

and uh the Kansas results have repudiated their eight-year-long nightmare. That's not something political ballpark reporting gets.

sir it says here in your pre political life you concerned yourself mostly with researching the life of a man who collected his own semen in a cigar box

I've had a few antacids and I'm done for the night. I'll unlock the other thread tomorrow a.m. if stet or Matt DC or someone else doesn't get it first.

lmao lag∞n

Enough things to make me happy about tonight (especially in IL) to make up for the things that make me unhappy (that we clearly still live in the United States of Redneckistan).

I'm sure a few more new york times articles about trump voters in diners will sort it all out

why do trump voters love diners so much? whats a diner? (infographic)

browser has been failing to post “FUCK YEAH JJJUSTEN” for half an hour so switching to zing and adding that we’ve popped a bottle for the House

btw abolish the Senate

Fuck yes, JJ!!!

The two sitting GOP congressmen under federal indictment look like they won.

fwiw it seems like the deal is basically:

- nationally there's been a big shift toward the dems since 2016
- (with the exception of the south east)
- the reason the republicans won in the senate is in great part because of which senate races were up for election were in places that have moved toward the GOP since 2012 (i.e. trump country)
- state and other local elections seem like good news so far (lots of changes that will enable redistricting, electoral justice, etc.)

Tough night for the Democratic Senate candidates that made Also Being Frightened By The Caravan Actually and keeping an open mind on birthright citizenship a big part of their closing arguments. Probably some lesson there but I can't see what it is.

— David Roth (@david_j_roth) November 7, 2018

crooks have always popular on both sides of the aisle

- nationally there's been a big shift toward the dems since 2016
- (with the exception of the south east)
- the reason the republicans won in the senate is in great part because of which senate races were up for election were in places that have moved toward the GOP since 2012 (i.e. trump country)
- state and other local elections seem like good news so far (lots of changes that will enable redistricting, electoral justice, etc.)

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 8:40 PM (thirty-two seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I can't believe there will be 90000 hot takes tomorrow AM instead of just every outlet copy-pasting this post

btw abolish the Senate

― I have measured out my life in coffee shop loyalty cards (silby), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 11:39 PM (forty-seven seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

if this idea doesnt become mainstream soon were basically doomed

abolish
- gender
- the senate

Getting excited about Lizzie Fletcher--still ahead w/74% in.

The NYT currently projects a national popular-vote margin of D+9.2%. The largest popular margin since 2008, larger than waves of 1994, 2006, 2010, 2014.

1994: R+7.1%
2006: D+8.0%
2008: D+10.6%
2010: R+7.2%
2014: R+5.7%

By historical standards, this a popular wave. pic.twitter.com/4hw71hieVN

— Sam Wang (@SamWangPhD) November 7, 2018

Don't know if it was posted above but Greg "body slam" Gianforte is out.

― grawlix (unperson), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 11:26 PM (seventeen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is not true. no one has called it. he's winning on the count. and he's forecast to continue to win.

FP unperson for what i can only assume after the florida trolling is wilful disinformation.

love how the guy who ate a bug because his predictions were so bad is still out there tweeting

ty caek for your posts here, as always

40% of black men in Florida got the right to vote today.

This is kind of mind-blowing.

Skot Walker losing would be sweet

I can't believe there will be 90000 hot takes tomorrow AM instead of just every outlet copy-pasting this post

Also that the independent vote broke dem for the first time since 2008, I believe I saw.

I mean Gillum, O'Rouke, Abrams have been the biggest lights of the democratic party in this election cycle

yeah and they've had decent swings and a lot of attention bringing good, non-asshole ideas to the electorate, this is positive overall

King hanging in by like 178 votes or something. One third of the vote to go ...

King now leading by 40 votes, about 70% in.

Big criminal justice reform vote in LA, they will no longer allow non-unanimous felony convictions. Only state besides OR that allowed this, and only one that allowed it on murder cases.

So it turns out in the end that Enter the Ninja actually is totally awesome, highly recommended to my Golan Globus heads in the hizzy, and then I come back here and find that Dems took the house and that an ILXor just won an election and, well, it seems we haven't gone full hellscape yet. So yay. I feel like I can sleep now.

Don't fall asleep! That's how they get you!!

i love that the insane (good actually) daylight saving ballot measure is looking good in CA

of the other progressive measures:

5 (extend the limitations on property tax) is losing but not by much (good)
6 (gas tax repeal) is losing, but not by much (good)
10 (allow cities to implement rent control) is losing massively (bad)

steve king is currently winning by 40 votes btw

lol JiC

choosing to believe Rick Scott's most wonderful mother ever died of shame so she wouldn't have to watch the campaign

7 of 9 districts along the Mexican border likely to vote Blue (with one Red to Blue flip in SE AZ-2!).

Tester way ahead

is he? I thought he was way behind.

McCaskill down.

I mean Gillum, O'Rouke, Abrams have been the biggest lights of the democratic party in this election cycle

yeah and they've had decent swings and a lot of attention bringing good, non-asshole ideas to the electorate, this is positive overall

― Sing The Mighty Beat (sic), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 8:49 PM (eight minutes ago)

positive yes, but where do they go from here?

Bully pulpit imo

I think King keeps his seat by, like, 100 votes.

uhhhhhhhhg

Pelosi: "We have all had enough of division. The American people want peace. They want results.”

— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) November 7, 2018

So, every poll except the ones in my home state were more or less correct, but I'm trying to stay excited. I will.

Did I see that NY state is now top-down blue, from gov to state house? Also, North Carolina dems now have the power to reverse crazy gerrymandering?

gonna be cool when pelosi and president deals build the wall in exchange for whatever stupid symbolic thing the dems rustle up xp

nance, read the room, we want division and we want the blood of our enemies rolling down our forearms (mostly from ripping out their organs)

After every election, and I do mean EVERY election, the winner talks about bipartisanship. It used to be the talk lasted several months. Now it disappears in about two days.

fwiw, Cruz's campaign manager called Beto one of the best Dem candidates he's ever seen and said he has a bright future.

can the house dems swap out that leadership team for something more up to date thats allowed right

josh: yeah dems now have governor and both state chambers in NY, NM and IL (which were previously split control). and they're projected to flip both state chambers in NH.

still think Pelosi is the best vote counter and legislation advancer (not that this matters now) since Rayburn. She may have suppressed young opposition. Right now she's the best we got.

Pelosi didn't advance impeachment proceedings against Bush, yeah yeah. No American legislator will do that against a sitting president after Ford pardoned Nixon.

yes all that great legislation pelosi has passed lets review it *infographic of a gigantic turd*

i think to the electorate she represents corporate interests in the democratic party. she's the wrong figurehead for parliamentary opposition to this president. shakey can say "that's not the job" all he likes but ... it kind of is.

schumer sucks even more btw

xp love you guys and your optimism, just hard for me to feel it right now

Apparently Slate has already called TX D7 for Fletcher. If so, this is HUGE.

schumer is truly a bank error in their favor become flesh

positive yes, but where do they go from here?

Beto stays in congress, works for his constituents
Gillum can organise and run for something again in a year or two when 40% of black Florida men can vote
Abrams can feel good about doing so well when her opponent is physically stuffing as many of her votes up his jumper as will fit

Ugh this WI governor race, gonna be a heartbreaker, I know it.

gay governor in Colorado, partaaaaaay

abc called ia-04 for steve king :-(

Beto is out of Congress, he didn't run for his House seat

yes all that great legislation pelosi has passed lets review it *infographic of a gigantic turd*

― lag∞n, Wednesday, November 7, 2018

yeah I know I've family with health care -- fuck'em *turd lands on them*

Schumer is the Dems greatest liability, Pelosi is Good Actually but should be setting up her successor TOMORROW and planning for a handover in 18 months

sic dont use "jumper" re US politics, shame on u

ah whoops, well I'm p sure Beto can do something good in organising

Schumer can disappear up a urinary tract though

lol beto just dropped an f-bomb on a whole lot of american households

i don't want to think about Kemp sweating tho

my healthcare payment goes up to $883 next month btw

today didnt change a fuck of a lot for me

mississipi senate runoff folks. we can do all this again in 3 weeks.

xp - I'd like to believe that but I'd put more money on a media career. The Betocast or something.

Two more flips: Underwood and Bourdeaux in Illinois.

Wonder if the green party will cost the dems (again) in Arizona.

also alaska just closed and that congressional race is surprisingly close. the independent running is really a democrat btw, and the incumbent is really a huge turd.

yeah I know I've family with health care -- fuck'em *turd lands on them*

― I like queer. You like queer, senator? (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, November 7, 2018 12:12 AM (five seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ah yes the healthcare system the democrats came up with when they controlled the government thats so good that now dems are winning on scrapping it in favor of medicare for all, which btw pelosi said was impossible within the last year

gay governor in Colorado, partaaaaaay

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, November 7, 2018 12:11 AM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

that guy pretty much sucks fwiw sry

20 million insured ain't nothing to throw a turd at xp

they literally cldve passed anything they wanted u people have stockholm syndrome

oooof

"Katie Hill leads by 0.1 percentage points, or 56 votes, over Steve Knight with 30 percent of precincts reporting."

knight is the last republican in LA county. hill is a ~~millennial~~.

yeah I know I've family with health care -- fuck'em *turd lands on them*

― I like queer. You like queer, senator? (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, November 7, 2018 12:12 AM (five seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ah yes the healthcare system the democrats came up with when they controlled the government thats so good that now dems are winning on scrapping it in favor of medicare for all, which btw pelosi said was impossible within the last year

― lag∞n,

and there's still people I know on it who depend on it, dude, and, yeah, they want better. This is an incoherent argument. I want socialist healthcare.

keep on posturing though

King wins

xp it was good for its time yes, but why shouldn't they push further for medicare for all, not sure what your point is

Amazing that just a few weeks ago the King race was not even considered competitive.

p it was good for its time yes, but why shouldn't they push further for medicare for all, not sure what your point is

― Dan S, Wednesday, November 7, 2018 1

agreed!

Posted on 538: "It has been almost two hours since polls closed in Nevada, and there is still not a single vote reporting. And this in a state where three-quarters of people vote early!"

it's amazing what you can do when you control the presidency, Senate, House, and Supreme Court.

AP has called TX D7 for Fletcher!

lmao at how this winning message panned out

This is quite a @clairecmc interview with @BretBaier. Swipes Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders unprompted. Says she’s not one of those “knee-jerk folks” who viscerally opposes Trump. Backs POTUS “100%” on caravan: “I do not want our borders overrun.”https://t.co/yeQC7lWfMt

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) October 30, 2018

that's just rubbing it in Simon

Her New Yorker profile last week was awful. She came off like a petulant hack.

what is the problem with Polis? he's a friend of a friend of mine, other than that and his stated positions, all of which are good and admirable, I know nothing.

xp still, can't believe we have to put up with Josh fucking Hawley

and there's still people I know on it who depend on it, dude, and, yeah, they want better. This is an incoherent argument. I want socialist healthcare.

― I like queer. You like queer, senator? (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, November 7, 2018 12:18 AM (forty-two seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

pelosi et al made sure the corporations got theirs at the expense of vulnerable people and have actively sought to undermine moment toward medicare for all and youre praising them them for incrementally improving the worst healthcare system in the developed world when they had the power to pass anything, now thats not incoherent as i just delineated it but it is a dumb as shit thing that perfectly exemplifies loser ass centrist dem delusion to get all keep on posting tho about tho

xp nothing. glad Polis won

Nancy Pelosi has a lot of flaws but her job, as she sees it, is to spit a bunch of nonsense in public and keep her caucus together in private and she has a proven track record of actually accomplishing this.

— Michael T Sweeney (@mtsw) November 7, 2018

this is fair, but i don't think she's right about what the job is any more.

may that be the last we ever hear from the petulant hack McCasket

i'm with lag∞n

p it was good for its time yes, but why shouldn't they push further for medicare for all, not sure what your point is

― Dan S, Wednesday, November 7, 2018 1

agreed!

― I like queer. You like queer, senator? (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Wednesday, November 7, 2018 12:19 AM (six minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it wasnt good for the time do u not recall joe leiberman nuking the weak sauce in itself public option cause schumer thinks the filibuster is sacred

it was literally a republican plan jfc

*medicare expansion was good

xp they didn't have the power "to pass anything". it was a huge victory to pass what they did

they controlled the white house and both cambers of congress including a super majority in the senate

and they passed a republican healthcare plan jfc

So Nelson conceded.

because the democratic party is totally compromised by corporate power as epitomized by the politics of nancy pelosi and the dem leadership in general

Scott Walker down! Not called yet

and they passed a republican healthcare plan jfc

― lag∞n, Wednesday, November 7, 2018 12:29 AM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

without a single republican vote

over 100 republican amendments to it!

mistakes definitely, always can understand infinite anger at Lieberman and Schumer about that

how do you know abt walker, ums?

ACA was a net benefit to the material conditions of a lotta people's lives but nobody involved in passing it probably deserves much in the way of praise for it outside of the context of banquets in their honor, which I will allow them

I'd like to believe that but I'd put more money on a media career. The Betocast or something

:-/

this is pelosi a year ago https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/12/pelosi-throws-up-a-giant-yield-sign-on-single-payer-health-care

i wld say the lack of vision is disqualifying, medicare for all is currently polling favorably with a majority of republicans, but i dont think its really a vision problem the democratic leadership is always stupid in exactly the same direction which is in favor of the rich and powerful

i am on team "pelosi was good 10 years ago but the dems need new leadership"

pelosi was never good dems have been garbage for 50 years

ACA broke a giant mental dam in the US. Medicare For All was still an unelectable position in 2016. it's won races for loads of new candidates throughout this year. gradual change leads to exponential change.

Schumer still needs to evaporate immediately, as he cannot comprehend that things have changed

I think Walker's going to win, the only city with votes out is Green Bay.

apparently there's 50k uncounted ballots from Milwaukee

nyt called ia-4 for king, and mn-8, covering duluth and the northeast, for stauber (which was not looking close lately)

agree sic

ACA broke a giant mental dam in the US. Medicare For All was still an unelectable position in 2016. it's won races for loads of new candidates throughout this year. gradual change leads to exponential change.

― Sing The Mighty Beat (sic), Wednesday, November 7, 2018 12:40 AM (thirty-five seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

some weird old man walked out of the vermont woods and almost beat the establishment anointed candidate who then lost cause she wldnt endorse a $15 minimum wage, the writings been on the wall corporate milquetoast dem leadership who dont want to read it have got to go

even if they do want to read it they shd go because they just suck

abolish
- gender
- the senate

― I have measured out my life in coffee shop loyalty cards (silby), Tuesday, November 6, 2018 11:42 PM (yesterday)

gender is fine imo

the governors and senate races are not going as hoped...

― Dan S, Tuesday, November 6, 2018

but they are going as expected.

what was on the table was the House, and the excitement that candidates like Beto and Gillum and Abrams brought to the race at a national level surely helped nudge things in the right direction. sure it's disappointing that none of them prevailed but that they even came close would have been unimaginable a couple of years ago.

break out the canned peaches tonight as far as I'm concerned

If we didn't mention it, Maine is now another state with a dem gov and dem state house/senate.

gender is fine imo

― k3vin k., Tuesday, November 6, 2018 10:46 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

also abolish the senate

huzzah for Maine, LePage was a risible nightmare but still a nightmare

turn the senate into a nationally representative parliamentary body imo

failing abolition of the senate: DC and PR statehood.

and forget all that bullshit about making elections a holiday, which doesn't help people on hourly wages. automatic voter registration and no excuse early postal voting or GTFO.

goon, you gotta have different candidates if you want to build a different party. those things don't just happen by magic. it takes a ton of active involvement on behalf of ideas and people who don't suck. and when they get enough votes, they win. jjjusten has the right idea.

re: those extant possibly dem leaning WI votes: "That includes 36,000 in person absentee ballots and 11,000 by mail absentee that are still outstanding. The @cityofmilwaukee expects to report them to the county in about 45 minutes."

failing abolition of the senate: DC and PR statehood.

and forget all that bullshit about making elections a holiday, which doesn't help people on hourly wages. automatic voter registration and no excuse early postal voting or GTFO.

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, November 7, 2018 12:50 AM (twenty-six seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

otm, also gotta say living in a state where they just mail u a ballot its a nicer experience to be able to sit with the thing and ponder it

Carbon tax in WA projected as a loser by the Seattle Times, presumably not enough votes in King County left to offset the anti-tax psychopaths that live in whatever the heck the rest of this state consists of

I realize I shouldn’t act like Seattle constitutes the entire state of Washington but like cmon

xp rogermexico it seemed to me that the expected result was that Gillum, Evers, Cordray, and possibly Abrams and Hubbell would win. really glad that Kelly beat Kobach though

"and forget all that bullshit about making elections a holiday, which doesn't help people on hourly wages"
how about just making it a weekend

goon, you gotta have different candidates if you want to build a different party. those things don't just happen by magic. it takes a ton of active involvement on behalf of ideas and people who don't suck. and when they get enough votes, they win. jjjusten has the right idea.

― A is for (Aimless), Wednesday, November 7, 2018 12:51 AM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah but also u have to break the grip on power of leadership within the party which includes elected and many non elected people, and part of that is not eating the dog food weve been conditioned to consume, there are tons of completely winning issues the dems cld run on just lying around but theyre not and a lot of that has to do with a relative handful of powerful people who have to be frickin ejected

*as i said upthread i believe posters shd not be allowed to hold office, nothing against jjj

Michigan approves legal marijuana. As I opined on the cannabis thread, I think this is major, as far as this stuff goes.

we did that here in 2016 and i don't think there are dispensaries yet still i haven't been following it though

I think it takes a while. Even CA and Colorado took a couple of years.

not to mention having any sort of backbone and fight to you is generally appealing to voters and human in general xp self

basically if the dems dont become the party of the little guy everyone in the world is going to die

Evers still in front by 4k

guess I'm goin to sleep now, I hope when I wake up I never have to see Walker's dumb ugly face again

you know whats fucked up if trump doesnt go to jail hell be on tv constantly until he dies

upside: he's old and eats shitty food so that death could literally come at any time

yeah we are def stuck with trump until he keels i think about this a lot

also a slim chance he never dies

if youre rich enough they can basically keep you alive forever now which is why we must imprison him

some weird old man walked out of the vermont woods and almost beat the establishment anointed candidate who then lost cause she wldnt endorse a $15 minimum wage, the writings been on the wall corporate milquetoast dem leadership who dont want to read it have got to go

look I basically agree with this except that she won

hmm i checked and pretty sure she lost to a medically stupid hideous person

the kind of winning that matters most is actually winning!

caek/Dan S

"and forget all that bullshit about making elections a holiday, which doesn't help people on hourly wages"
how about just making it a weekend

again, every small change leads to better change. America should have weekend voting AND paper ballots AND automatic registration AND no-excuse absentee voting AND early or by-mail voting everywhere.

but any one of these is a great step towards all of them.

she didn't "lose" bcz of not endorsing one good thing she should have endorsed though.

she was an incredibly terrible candidate and the most qualified candidate ever and she won and she lost

it's pretty impressive

she wldve won if she endorsed that one thing but instead she was all "ive consulted with economists and they say $12 an hour is better for job creation" which was just too on the nose for many voters

literally fighting for just one good thing that mattered to suffering people wouldve put her over the top, but she was not capable, the dem leadership is not capable, its not who they are, theyre people who pretend corporate power and human rights can be complimentary, because its convenient to them

Here in Oregon we turned down the bad initiatives, passed the somewhat reasonable ones, rejected the Republican "moderate" for governor, stayed Democratic in both chambers of the legislature, and continue to starve our state and local governments of the tax revenue they would require to meet all their legal obligations. So, we're fine. It's all fine. Except for that last detail.

obama gave 2 trillion dollars to wall st and nothing to their victims, these things matter, they lay the groundwork for fascism in fact

can we unlock the main thread

i have a really juicy hannity excerpt from nytimes, people are gonna LOVE IT

(xpost to dems leadership) yeah but on the upside they're all old and will die soon. but I still want Pelosi to train a successor who's young and bold and smarter than her. while you're stuck with a two-party system, you have to work in it

again, every small change leads to better change. America should have weekend voting AND paper ballots AND automatic registration AND no-excuse absentee voting AND early or by-mail voting everywhere.

plus campaign finance reform, an informed electorate, a media that doesn't report dumb bullshit as fact, it to be illegal to take out 900,000 TV ads telling lies about your opponent and RANKED. MOTHERFUCKING. VOTING. but whichever one can be done first, do that first.

i can't take it

At 11:02 a.m. on Monday, after the Donald J. Trump for President campaign announced that Sean Hannity would appear at his rally on the eve of the midterm elections, the prime-time star of Fox News posted a Shermanesque tweet: “I will not be on the stage campaigning with the president.”

A few hours later, in Cape Girardeau, Mo., Rush Limbaugh’s hometown, Mr. Hannity was on the stage campaigning with the president.

...Mr. Trump introduced Mr. Hannity — an informal adviser and close confidant since the 2016 campaign — as someone who had been “with us since the beginning.” After a firm handshake and a warm bro-hug, Mr. Hannity pointed toward the reporters in the back and said, “By the way, all those people in the back are fake news.”

sean hannity is one of the best journalists out there

can we unlock the main thread

seconded

no leave it locked until tomorrow AM when we're not drinking

I also want Waters to stay alive long enough to piss on Trump's jail cell doors

make Soto a mod for 12 hours so he can unlock it

(xpost to dems leadership) yeah but on the upside they're all old and will die soon. but I still want Pelosi to train a successor who's young and bold and smarter than her

― Sing The Mighty Beat (sic), Wednesday, November 7, 2018 1:22 AM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

man pelosi isnt going to train anyone, why do u think theyre all so fn old and still in power

i'm soto's web czar (someone suggested it)

burn it all down! burn ilx down! whyiotta

we won! wooo

again, every small change leads to better change. America should have weekend voting AND paper ballots AND automatic registration AND no-excuse absentee voting AND early or by-mail voting everywhere.

but any one of these is a great step towards all of them.

― Sing The Mighty Beat (sic), Wednesday, November 7, 2018 1:14 AM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalin

i'm fine with the idea that incremental progress is progress, and finite political capital implies you should sometimes start with with the easy wins.

on electoral reform though this is a tactical disagreement, not principle:

moving federal elections, or declaring a holiday to accommodate them seem like a pretty remote possibility (would require federal legislation, or be hugely costly for any state unilaterally moving their elections to be on a different day than federal). implementing postal voting in every statehouse the democrats flip seems easy.

and postal voting is not only easier politically. it would be far more effective at making it easier for likely dem voters to vote.

postal voting should be the second thing every one of these newly democratic statehouses does, right after healthcare expansion.

tim faust thought that scott walker won, for real, then said "If this turns out not to be the case and some drunk dude just played me I am going to try to rip a parking meter out of the ground and hurt myself"

we won

at the least, we threw up a roadblock, created a checkpoint and armed the guards with subpoena power.

the problem with incremental change at this point is that miami will be under water soon and *points at weirdly spinning gyrating electoral map* and we wont be able to count on the blue votes in that part of the state

Usa

Evers now up by 112 on the NYT tracker

98% in

1,249,039
1,248,917

I am too stoned to contribute to this discussion about Pelosi but I jist feel compelled to note I lean broadly goonway

bless brother hoos

The way the senate is going tonight, M4A is dead in the water. Although early results are apparently really bad for Heller.

98% in

1,249,039
1,248,917

― Karl Malone, Wednesday, November 7, 2018 1:33 AM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

looks like recount territory to me fellas

man pelosi isnt going to train anyone, why do u think theyre all so fn old and still in power

look I can have 2.3 days of fanciful dreams about the world improving alright

implementing postal voting in every statehouse the democrats flip seems easy.

and postal voting is not only easier politically. it would be far more effective at making it easier for likely dem voters to vote.

word, it's also a step towards my other wished-for step of paper ballots

The way the senate is going tonight, M4A is dead in the water.

the senate was never going to turn tonight, M4A remains an eminently campaignable principle for individual candidates. two years ago it was the insane ramblings of a dustbunny wearing a slept-in suit

listen here, i can count and evers is up by 122, 98% rounds up to 100%, this election is OVAH!

(EDIT: looks like walker is up by 42 now, a recount would probably be prudent, i agree)

ABRAMS REFUSING TO CONCEDE FUCK YEAH

feel like it worth appreciating the results tonight in the context of 3.7% "unemployment" and what passes for a rollicking economy these days FWIW

I don't think M4A was that insane in 2016 or before. 55+ Dems would have voted for a public option in 2008.

🔥 🔥 🔥 Abrams 🔥 🔥 🔥

Hey Fred

Fuck off

Goodnight!

josh marshall is ON THE SCENE

Interesting. Stacey Abrams’s campaign manager says they think this race will go to a run off. In Georgia you need to get over 50% to win. Right now it’s 51 to 48. Very hard to see how Abrams can possibly come back. But she doesn’t need to. She needs him to come under 50%. Then there’s a run off.

Now if it does go to a run-off that’s a tough position for Abrams since the Libertarian candidate, who got about 36,000 votes gets eliminated and presumably his votes mainly go to Kemp. I know party operatives also were worried about whether Abrams turnout coalition could manage the same blitz again in a month or so. Who knows? But this one may not be over.

if you don't have 50%, you gotta round down and start it over, Abramsmentum

theres a lot of shit that looks insane and impossible cause weirdly both parties are ~weirdly~ against it, i cld make a list

it wasn't that insane to the electorate, but the deadshit Dem leadership thought it was. swarms of Ocasio-Cortezzes have shown it isn't, and there will be more of them buzzing up

yes but your list would include your policy of banning coins xp

xposts, the thread has gotten way better at being able to post since the east coast passed out though

yes but your list would include your policy of banning coins xp

― 𝔠𝔞𝔢𝔨 (caek), Wednesday, November 7, 2018 1:44 AM (nine seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

no everyone already agrees thats good, also keeping daylight savings all year round, both those are in the constitution

I AM AWAKE WITH THIS RUNOFF LETS GO

coins are bad

all clanging around in yr pocket who wants that ffs

let's run it off, right now, anyone on this thread right now decides the future. let's fucking do it

first off, coins

i'm ok with ban coins, but only if there's another way to decide things when it's pretty much 50/50

and i'm sick of flipping leaves

given tonight's results, the GOP agenda for the next two years is: fire sessions, confirm lots of judges and ... that's about it, i guess.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/07/mcconnell-senate-republicans-2018-elections-midterms-968939

this is going to be interesting when all the mueller shit hits the fans soon

this is another area where Australia leads the way, no dollar bills and the notes you do have can go in the ocean

also keeping daylight savings all year round, both those are in the constitution

goon 2020

thank u for your vote i look forward to being a multimillionaire

Update:

Abolish
- the senate
- gender
- coins
- “falling back”