GET OUT: US politics November 2020

Forgive me.

I approve of this thread title

elaine_benes.gif

good luck usa

No luck involved, do your duty USA.

itt we pre-cover the election results.

I claim Florida

I'm still on this, because fuck this ridiculous statement.

it’s simply that most people are able to sustain conflicting ideas and understand the degrees of nuance inherent in people, and how it’s amplified when are you the commander in chief of most the powerful defense in the world.

Talk about nuance to the thousands of people killed by drones, including 324+ civilians and an American citizen.

Obama reportedly told senior aides in 2011: “Turns out I’m really good at killing people. Didn’t know that was gonna be a strong suit of mine.”

Just another day shooting hoops, killing people.

yes good work Alba

Obama is a good politician.

In terms of mass murders and war crimes, where does Obama rank among US presidents?

Oh good, this again. Maybe we can relitigate the 2016 election once more while we're at it. And what about that rascal Kennedy?!?!

Obama reportedly told senior aides in 2011: “Turns out I’m really good at killing people. Didn’t know that was gonna be a strong suit of mine.”

― healthy cocaine off perfect butts (the table is the table), Sunday, November 1, 2020 10:35 AM (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

This was originally reported in Mark Halperin and John Heilemann's Double Down: Game Change 2012, where the words "Obama said quietly" appeared between the two sentences. The impression it's meant to convey is that Obama was sobered by it. It wasn't a casual boast.

cool, so we're going to use this thread to re-litigate the Obama era.

i heard a rumor there was an Election but I guess not.

No luck involved, do your duty USA.

sadly, whenever active voter suppression efforts are a concern, some luck comes into play as well. also the litigation of the results, state-by-state, by the trump administration, there's luck involved because sometimes they randomly select federal judges, and if you get a trump-era judge they're probably a total fucking scumbag

but i support the overall message! :) the more all of us get out and fight through the bullshit and get our votes locked in, the less luck is involved

i did my duty

every box i ticked on my absentee ballot felt viscerally good

oh u voted absentee?

FAKE VOTE

i voted absentee 2

^ Lib admits to double voting!!!

i voted 6 times in Reno
just to watch him lose

From today's polls, Florida looks about dead even: Biden's a little bit ahead in two, Trump a little bit ahead in two (one of which is Susquehanna, not highly rated).

But the most important three look really good: Pennsylvania (+7, +6), Michigan (+7, +7, +7), Wisconsin (+11). Everything else is moot in terms of simply winning the EC.

i'd love for him to win Florida, but we're a stubborn (terrible) state

Maybe if people would stop posting about him, we'd be able to stop re-litigating it.

I'm done for now, though.

my comment was directed at the entire convo, not specifically your posts.

convo itself is fine and valid, just...we have threads where it might be better suited when we're kinda anxious about the current election.

In terms of mass murders and war crimes, where does Obama rank among US presidents?

The whole nineteenth century was a series of war crimes and mass murders against Native Americans. Plus the atrocities in the Philippines. We musn't forget all the military interventions in Latin America under cover of the Monroe Doctrine. So, I'd say Obama is below the median.

fortunately the Philippines have picked up the slack and started committing atrocities against their own people, thanks to Duterte

I love Ned's early voter updates and appreciate Alfred's "don't be an irrational bedwetter" reminders but I have to accept I have this magical thinking that no matter what Trump has some secret miracle he's going to pull out

I think all of us have that fear to a degree. the stakes are too high, so even the image of a victorious Trump will make most of us sick to our stomach. we have PTSD from 2016. this is the shit Lebron James can shake out of his head as he takes the game-tying freethrow, but I can't.

if you voted against Trump, you made that free throw in my opinion.

Mark Price is the god fearing patriot this country needs, but does not deserve

i'm listening to Painkiller's "Guts of a Virgin" rn and it sonically encapsulates what my head sounds like right now

I really do hope he eats shit in Texas, and not just bc of electoral implications. Might even go to thamksgibing at my parents’ house this year—which is apparently still happening, even if the usual 30 or so attendees will be whittled down to about 10.

Don’t want to miss my rich Texas chud extended fam and hear my aunt do a really passive-aggressive prayer before we eat. she really fouled the air with one out last year and it was 😙👌

A Biden admin might not offer much but at least I’ll have this.

I am sadly beyond really even caring about the Biden admin, it's just pure hate of Trump and his followers, not admirable I guess

if Trump wins, somebody is going to drop off a huge box that says REPUBLICAN BALLOTS TO BURN with a Beau Biden sticker on it and a nametag that says "Hi My Name is Hunter Biden" to that laptop repair guy

i care more about giving our country a chance to heal, even if Biden will be rife with problems. we don't even have a fighting chance right now.

.@realDonaldTrump reacts to the cold weather during a campaign rally at the Michigan Sports Stars Park in Washington, MI. pic.twitter.com/bMzqcL7yO0

— Doug Mills (@dougmillsnyt) November 1, 2020

nah, he's rapping

On Election Eve, Biden is going to....Ohio. pic.twitter.com/qpup4rCyJf

— Alex Thompson (@AlxThomp) November 1, 2020

If he sees his shadow it means 4 more years of winter

maybe he's picking up some laptops hunter left behind at the cleveland apple store

BREAKING: Texas Supreme Court DENIES petition seeking to toss out almost 127,000 Harris County votes cast in drive-thru lanes.
Denial is without comment.

— Chuck Lindell (@chucklindell) November 1, 2020

Separate I believe from the federal case tomorrow but I suspect that's not a good sign for said case.

Good news

Yeah even if - IF - a court ruled that the jurisdiction acted improperly, disenfranchising those voters would be the wrong remedy - they simply believed what their jurisdiction told them.

On the other hand, a decision on the federal case will be worse than useless if it comes too late for the voters to remedy it by voting again, so... back to nail-biting

When have republican courts ever been deterred by the wrong remedy? They'll do as much as they can get away with.

I've seen a lot of stories about business boarding up their windows in anticipation of mass riots on Tuesday. What exactly is the scenario they are expecting that would lead to this?

Scary brown and black people?

Run on toilet paper. Again.

give people ideas when you consistently play into that narrative

Feels like the whole world needs a chillout lounge for the next couple days.

Trump advisers said their best hope was if the president wins Ohio and Florida is too close to call early in the night, depriving Biden a swift victory and giving Trump the room to undermine the validity of uncounted mail-in ballots in the days after. https://t.co/IMVciQtWJC

— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 1, 2020

What exactly is the scenario they are expecting that would lead to this?

The president has said for months that if he doesn't win it's because of election fraud. He told the Proud Boys to stand by. He has a lot of well-armed and fanatical supporters. If the Proud Boys and those supporters turn out in force, so will counter protestors. Shit, if it looks like Trump went down in flames there will be plenty of street celebrations the Trumpist thugs will want to disrupt by breaking some heads.

It doesn't take a very large percentage of the US population for there to be several hundred thousand people surging around. From both sides. But tha police are not exactly a calming influence or even a neutral one.

https://i.imgur.com/OxmyAMl.gif

https://media.tenor.com/images/6963d20d7b183c1f9f5ce2ac6de1039f/tenor.gif

Good work K-man :)

He came to get down
He came to get down

jesus that's like a horror movie

he's hugging Barron (unseen)

https://static.wikia.nocookie.net/thething/images/0/04/Split-Face-Thing_-_Profile.png

i think he looks nice

President so nice
He ate us twice

I love Ned's early voter updates and appreciate Alfred's "don't be an irrational bedwetter" reminders but I have to accept I have this magical thinking that no matter what Trump has some secret miracle he's going to pull out

― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown)

Nah. What magical power?

The not-so-secret miracle is an attempted democratic coup, which I doubt/hope they'll be able to pull off. Don't think there's some surprise waiting, these fuckers telegraph the move way in advance.

these fuckers telegraph the move way in advance

Axios Scoop: Trump plans to declare premature victory

President Trump has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's "ahead," according to three sources familiar with his private comments.

That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.

Behind the scenes: Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he has won.

For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.

Why it matters: Trump's team is preparing to falsely claim that mail-in ballots counted after Nov. 3 — a legitimate count expected to favor Democrats — are evidence of election fraud.

Details: Many prognosticators say that on election night, Trump will likely appear ahead in Pennsylvania — though the state's final outcome could change substantially as mail-in ballots are counted over the following days.

Trump's team is preparing to claim baselessly that if that process changes the outcome in Pennsylvania from the picture on election night, then Democrats would have "stolen" the election.

Trump's advisers have been laying the groundwork for this strategy for weeks, but this is the first account of Trump explicitly discussing his election night intentions.

lol declare victory all u want bruh

it'll just make for another clipping for the self-own reel

For this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona and Georgia.

lol none of those are givens either

God this week is gonna suck so bad

i need more drugs than I have

someone email me an edible

Trump: With 1% of votes in Nationwide, I am proud to declare myself re-elected, 13-0

Nate "Woke" Silver:

Tired of people framing "Trump will declare victory prematurely" as a media story. Most likely—in part because the White House has telegraphed it so much in advance—the media will be fairly well-prepared. Instead, it's a story about Trump seeking to undermine faith in democracy.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2020

KM's gif should get hatcatted into some mystery word imo

I've seen a lot of stories about business boarding up their windows in anticipation of mass riots on Tuesday. What exactly is the scenario they are expecting that would lead to this?

lolol, supermarkets and pharmacies and Starbucks and Amazon shops have been boarded over (while still open) for almost six months in Seattle. welcome to the anarchist jurisdiction!

convo itself is fine and valid, just...we have threads where it might be better suited when we're kinda anxious about the current election.

tbftttittitt, he was just reacting to the guy from the movie after which this thread is titled saying "I am going to masturbate multiple times to this 12-second video of a former president boasting," which we'd probably not applaud if it were Vince Vaughan saying it about the current president

tbftttittitt?

Virginia has a lot of boarded up windows since summer too

#Arizona’s largest county, Maricopa, announced early votes have exceeded the votes cast in the entire 2016 election. #2020Election https://t.co/emvDvbXYGO

— Kyung Lah (@KyungLahCNN) November 1, 2020

ahh, Arpaio country

tbftttittitt?

to be fair to the table is the table i think that ?

lol that's awesome

I read it as "to be fair to the table is the table in this thread"

sic is always quality

to be fair to the table is the table in this thread

David Berman's most powerful composition iirc

tis the gift to be table
tis the gift to be free

Aw, I loved that, thanks y'all. Sorry I'm such a cantankerous asshole sometimes, I just am either much more cynical or much more idealistic than many of you.

ftr I didn't have any issue with what you said or you personally, I was salty cos I am having a helluva weekend and am overanxious, but yr good people.

Can't imagine why anyone would be anxious these days

I mean everything's fine, right?

table, I also concur that you seem like good people (I don’t know you) but sometimes your stated positions on these boards come with a powerful whiff of sanctimony that drives me up the wall.

Sorry I'm such a cantankerous asshole sometimes, I just am either much more cynical or much more idealistic than many of you.

We're all more of both tbh.

Cynicism is curdled or smothered idealism anyway.

I try to belong to the reality-based community, but it's not any more comfortable than being a cynical idealist.

Cynicism is curdled or smothered idealism anyway.

I'll remember this line.

As long as I continue to live and work where I do, my idealism remains uncurdled, which is probably why my tolerance for unvarnished cynicism is so low.

I’m looking forward to putting my money behind the campaigns of actually progressive primary candidates in 2022, all over the country, if the Dems are as useless as noted cynic milo assumes they’re going to be.

Those of us with some discretionary income definitely should be upping our giving game, both political and charitable. I think this year our household is going to achieve the 'tithing' standard of 10% of AGI.

i've probably hit $500 or so of donations, which isn't a lot, but is way more than I've donated to causes before.

My suggestion is simply to determine a rolling monthly donation per what you can contribute, identify groups you wish to assist and set up the auto payments. Then it’s part of your monthly budget and you can add more as needed. Been doing it that way for years.

El Tomboto, i think sometimes the sanctimony comes from occasionally feeling like one of the few people with an outlook similar to mine on this board. That said, point taken! Tbh with notable exceptions, you all seem like good people.

Except Ned.

Lol

oh no we all agree Ned’s a bastard

Well I am full of hate and all.

ANAB

Hey man, Ned lives matter.

American flag where the middle stripe is just part of a pic of Ned's face

I’ve heard about the Raggett history. Long line of bandits!

the thin purple line

lol crüt

That...was too good.

Nevada (a trusted-by-Ralston feed):

2020 turnout in Clark is now over 100% of total final turnout in Clark in 2016 (by raw ballots). pic.twitter.com/AguQY1RhGV

— Dr. John R. Samuelsen (@JohnRSamuelsen) November 1, 2020

Note that registration increased by about 240,000 between 2016 and 2020. So, percentagewise, still will have to wait to see if it exceeds that on election day. Still about 10% more of the electorate has voted at this point than the same point in 2016 even after adjusting for that pic.twitter.com/1C1NlE1fvl

— Dr. John R. Samuelsen (@JohnRSamuelsen) November 1, 2020

The second tweet was just for caek, who can throw a sign at me instead if he must. *ducks*

want to apologize to ned raggett for dissing his posts about turnout - they are quite fascinating and i was wrong.

I voted a couple weeks ago and when I walked out of the courthouse multiple church bells were ringing and I took it as a good omen. Later found out they were ringing as they have at 11am every Thursday in memory of the Covid dead, which was sobering.

No need but thank you, just sharing what I’m seeing. It’s always been the case this election would have driven voters, as well as more going early due to COVID, but this is startling for sure. Less that two weeks ago McDonald figured only 88 million in the end and I only saw a random guess at 100 million as an outside shot someone offered in a larger piece, and here we are on the brink of that.

:) a good sign

While prepared for anything, I am also oddly hopeful.

But I am also going to buy some bourbon tomorrow.

table you’re in philly right?

Probably not the best idea to announce this beforehand

The quiet part, screamed: Trump tells reporters that "we're going to go in the night of, as soon as that election is over [in PA], we're going in with our lawyers ... if people wanted to get their ballots in, they should have gotten their ballots in long before that." pic.twitter.com/sAMA0Pw6Tg

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 1, 2020

Hey remember Howard Schultz. What a world.

“Schultz is an outspoken neoliberal, centrist, technocratic, and political independent.[78][79] Schultz's political positions are similar to the Democratic Party platform.”

Lmao

"I don’t think it’s fair that we have to wait for a long period of time after the election," Trump said, and it would be “terrible thing."

fucking baby

The entire GOP is on their back foot trying to pitch a hail mary, and it’s not stopping in November. I’m going to help fund every runoff, I’m going to donate to every local race with half a chance in 2022. I’m not the only one. They’re fucked and they know it.

that video is something

i don’t think it’s fair that we have to wait for a long period of time after the election to ship trump’s sorry ass back to whatever gold-veneered conference centre he hasn’t had to hock yet.

There are precisely two words I want to hear this month. I don't know who will say them or when, but they are:

you're fired

Hi

Interesting pic.twitter.com/WZDD5smzAc

— Will Jordan (@williamjordann) November 2, 2020

What am I supposed to take from this? Democrats are more inclined to vote early this year than Republicans, we know that, so the more Democratic parts of Texas had more early turnout, as you'd expect. What is holy shit about it?

Controlling for pop growth, turnout in Democratic parts of Texas has been huge. And it’s not even Tuesday.

Like many I the thread I don’t understand the second map, because they are two different years.

There is a whole frickton of game theory in it,, but I found this interesting, in terms of why does Candidate X go to state Y.

https://neelmehta.medium.com/5-keys-to-campaign-strategy-5-high-variance-plays-4a1f32f88920

(Also in a "wtf else do we have to do while waiting for results" kind of way. Clearly, wait-and-see remains the best strategy)

62-63 million people voted Trump in 2016. Given current trends he’s likely gonna need something like 72 million to win. I do not think he’s persuaded anywhere close to 10 million additional people to vote for him.

I never forget that year when something like a mind boggling 300+ election staff died during an Indonesian election, purely from counting fatigue/overwork.

I think all the tweet is saying is that in democratic areas of texas early voting alone has already far exceeded total votes in 2016

To put this another way, I don’t see how a guy who’s literally never gotten above a 42% approval rating in the polling average can win a high turnout election

Yeah but the second image claims to show margins for Clinton 2016 and O’Rourke 2018 in a single map. I can’t figure it out.

Xpost

I think all the tweet is saying is that in democratic areas of texas early voting alone has already far exceeded total votes in 2016

Yes. I get that. But if counties in the Republican part of the state are already at 80% of their 2016 turnout, and we know that those counties have many more Republicans and thus much greater expected Election Day turnout than the Democratic counties, is there any reason to expect we're going to see bigger relative turnout in Dem counties than GOP counties, when all the votes are cast and counted?

I agree it makes it pretty clear Texas turnout as a whole is going to be much higher than 2016, and I can't help but feel that helps Democrats, but it's not obvious to me the turnout increase is going to be differentially concentrated among Democrats, is what I'm saying.

And that’s OK, and here’s why

I understand and generally agree with your general point eephus.

It’s just that’s the clearest data I’ve seen that democrats are voting early (received wisdom but you never know), the exact extent of the difference is extreme (which was not obvious to me), the absolute turnout is very large, and you’d rather be the guy whose voters have already turned out. It’s much more suggestive than the “turnout is up in this state compared to four years ago” stuff we’ve been getting.

Ps I don’t think biden is going to win in Texas.

And since I was moaning about these Humber’s ignoring population growth earlier, here’s the same thing correcting for that (left hand plot is % or voters, not number of votes)

Final look at TX returns by county, which again says that larger blue-trending counties were the most eager to vote early. The little dots will do their best to catch up on Tuesday of course (though there's also still plenty of vote left in the suburbs and urban areas). pic.twitter.com/4dwRn5z7GJ

— Jason Pipkin (@jipkin) October 31, 2020

Again, Wasserman relies on a different source than Elections Project and said source goes for higher numbers but even so:

The U.S. just surpassed 95 million early votes cast, per @WinWithJMC. That's 70% of the 137.1 million total votes cast in 2016, and we're on track for 100 million+ cast before polls open on Election Day.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020

the turnout is exciting.

i'm glad the country can agree on one thing -- they hate donald trump and think he is an asshole

buncha cumstainfuckbubblepterodactyldicks

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523833-pittsburgh-backs-trump-in-first-republican-presidential-endorsement-since

huh, i wonder if that will make a difference in PA

i mean, kinda late for that. i just object to their logic behind it.

The paper criticized Democratic nominee Joe Biden, a Pennsylvania native, for his stance on ending fracking and other "Cuckoo California dreams."

While painting Biden, 77, as being “too old for the job, and fragile,” it acknowledges that it believes Trump at 74 is also too old but “seemingly robust.”

538 still tweeting about how "10% isn't 0%", which...I know, I know, but seriously, it's fucking terrifying me

though I do think about how elections are different than other random events - in poker, AK beats AQ preflop one-third of the time, in sports you can roughly calculate each team's WP%, but unless you know exactly how the deck is stacked and which way the ball bounces you can't really predict what's going to happen, just how *likely* it is. if you run AK vs. AQ 100 times, the AK will win somewhere between 60-70% of the time. but elections are not like that - I don't really buy the thing Nate always says, "if you run the election 100 times, Hillary wins 70 of them"...how does that make sense? if the election was Wednesday instead of Tuesday, would a whole different sample really vote? 2016's polling miss was mostly related to an error in the way polls weighted education levels (which was fixed for this election) and a bombshell in the final days of the election which had Trump gaining a little ground in virtually every poll. no such thing is happening right now. Biden is ahead in every swing state (besides *maybe* Florida?) and even with a full polling error in Trump's favor, he still loses by a lot. so where exactly is this 10% chance coming from?

The only absolute is death.

xpost Context: https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/media/the-standoff-between-owners-and-journalists-thats-eviscerating-pittsburghs-biggest-newspaper/2020/06/16/13c6089e-aa7a-11ea-a9d9-a81c1a491c52_story.html

and the gin and tonic as the warm weather cocktail of choice

one time I rolled a ball towards a hole. I had done it many times before. the same result - it stayed on the straight and narrow and disappeared into the hole. I lost count as far as how many times I had done it, probably 1,000, maybe 2,000. It was an easy result as I was literally centimeters away from the hole. It was, as you say, a sure bet.

Anyway, I decided to bet the guy next to me that I could throw the ball in the hole, and weirdly, he took me up on the bet, which I saw as a fool parting with his money. But I got eerily unnerved as to how confident he was in winning - he plunked down $500 next to me. and all I had to do was roll a ball into a hole centimeters away.

I got ready to roll the ball and a dinosaur came onto the golf course, causing the ground to rupture, and the ball went rolling past the hole.

however the kid died so I didn't have to pay him

Before last year, Keith C. Burris was mostly known to reporters at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette as the author of the most controversial opinion piece their newspaper had ever published.
In a 2018 editorial with the headline “Reason as Racism,” Burris defended President Trump’s infamous comment about immigrants from “shithole countries,” arguing that “calling someone a racist is the new McCarthyism” and that such a label should be confined to the likes of Bull Connor and Dylann Roof. Plus, he added, “there are nations that are hellholes in this world.” Appalled readers, including current and former staffers, wrote letters in response. Leaders of major foundations said the paper “has done our community and the cause of justice a grave disservice.” Sixteen members of the Block family — owners of the paper for nearly a century — called it an attempt to “justify blatant racism.”

Barely a year later, Publisher John R. Block promoted Burris from editorial page editor to executive editor of the entire paper.

And so on.

Basically, paper currently run by Trumpers.

The White House on lockdown: A federal law enforcement source tells NBC that beginning tomorrow, crews will build a “non-scalable” fence to secure the WH complex, Ellipse and Lafayette Square.

250 National Guardsmen have been put on standby, reporting to Metro Police officials.

— Geoff Bennett (@GeoffRBennett) November 2, 2020

^ Suggests that Trump is planning to do something so blatantly objectionable that it is predictable in advance that extremely angry protests will arise. But we could easily have predicted that a couple of months ago. It is of the essence of Trumpism.

Yeah that’s not good

or that they're assuming "angry liberals" will riot when they "win"

i don't think he will succeed in "stealing" the election

so whatever, he can do what he wants

538 still tweeting about how "10% isn't 0%", which...I know, I know, but seriously, it's fucking terrifying me.

Trigger Warning: It's back up to 11%

He can fall flat in his face trying the steal the election and still make a huge (further) mess of this situation xp

or that they're assuming "angry liberals" will riot when they "win"

not a bad assumption, tbh

if they give the appearance of "winning", and it very much appears that they did not "win", and people in prominent positions seem to be nodding along with everything, then i think that would probably make a lot of people angry

but that's a lot of ifs.

his plan is to declare victory at midnight if he is ahead in the electoral count at that time.

frogbs: I can't tell if your last post is a response to the long 538 piece that went up an hour ago, or if you haven't seen it. If not, "So let’s state a few basic facts: The reasons that President Trump’s chances in our forecast are about 10 percent and not zero..."

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/

“I shouldn’t even be here. They said I had Georgia made,” Trump says in Rome, Georgia. Rally no. 4. pic.twitter.com/wxldmNtavB

— Courtney Subramanian (@cmsub) November 2, 2020

it does not appear the Trump campaign is expecting to win (legitimately) at this point

Asked about the Axios report, Trump’s Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, said: “My response is the president’s not gonna steal this election.”

probably the best possible response. short and terse.

xxp - just read it, I do see where it's all coming from but idk...there's so much "Trump needs all these longshot outcomes to come true" about this and I am not necessarily buying that they are as coordinated as they are suggesting. if 2016's polling error happens in 2020, Biden still wins big...and NONE of those factors that swung it to Trump are in play right now. his approval rating is still underwater. he's drawing poor marks on just about everything. Dems are overperforming in virtually every election that's been held since 2016 (nearly all of which have been drawing record turnout, just as this one is). not only is Trump polling poorly but virtually all Rs are along with him. he has massively fucked the one true test of his presidency which has caused his most reliable voting bloc (seniors) to turn on him. and Nate's most plausible theory in favor of an upset is...that 3,000,000 early votes are gonna be thrown out due to procedural errors? I mean....I trust the folks who do this for a living and I'm as nervous as everyone else...but I just don't see how it happens??

(excluding the Republicans outright stealing it, but that's kind of another scenario entirely)

like this seems pretty conclusive to me. if Trump can win with splits like this, how does the entire polling industry not immediately crumble?

Not sure we'll get more "final" national live-interview polls, but here are my average crosstabs (in situations where pollsters polled twice in Oct., "October 2020" includes the first poll and "FInal 2020 Polls" includes the second). pic.twitter.com/h833XhI5Sg

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 1, 2020

Took the @CookPolitical swingometer for one last spin. Here's what it spits out when you plug in the demographic splits in final live-interview national polls (even assuming a 10% turnout bump among non-college whites and 5% bump for everyone else). https://t.co/RAud6tHKVu pic.twitter.com/ekbfkifvNw

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020

Trump’s gonna declare victory at like 10:30 or 11:00pm EST or so, by which point tons of DCites will be out in the streets having a party. The DCPD, who work for a black woman who hates Trump, will be trying to keep things from getting out of hand, while DHS FPS and other federal forces may very well be spoiling for a fight. It will be stupid, people might get hurt, but eventually it will stop once the projected count becomes insurmountable.

A federal law enforcement source tells NBC that beginning tomorrow, crews will build a “non-scalable” fence to secure the WH complex, Ellipse and Lafayette Square.

“non-scalable”... hmmm where have I heard that before?

Even if he locks himself in the fenced-off house on Tuesday to hide from dealing with the fact people hate him, he'll be bored as shit by the end of the week - after a month of adoring rallies! - let alone in three months' time when his term ends. He'd rather flounce off saying he needs to return to his business and the White House is a dump than actually concentrate long enough to foment a civil war.

oh - wait - is Mexico paying for this fence?

Leave him there and get on with the business of government from literally any other building in DC. I hear there's a hotel with the name of a prominent tax avoider above the door, right across the street. Requisition that and move on.

though I do think about how elections are different than other random events

an election is not a random event in any way

Haha he stranded people again. The third time this week. Pathetic on so many levels, not the least of which is the people still falling for it.

It seems to me that concepts like "random" and "error" are used in different ways in different contexts without much qualification, leading to a bit of confusion.

A thought experiment / toy example: You have a big sack filled with 10,000 balls; for the sake of argument, let exactly half of them be blue and half of them red. You then repeatedly -- say, once a day -- run "polls" in this "electorate", by shaking the bag thoroughly and picking out 100 balls without looking, and then counting the blue-vs-red proportion of the drawn balls. Now, over time, the results will in all probability fluctuate around a 50/50 proportion, even if a given single poll may be quite a bit off. However, there is a chance that, by pure luck, a large majority of the polls show a blue majority, and that the results seem to fluctuate around, say, 57/43 over the horizon you run your polls. The probability of this happening gets smaller the larger the number of polls, but such random effects can seem surprisingly persistent (because the human mind is bad at probabilistic intuition, and the apparently endless number of actual polls is not statistically a large one).

So, even granted that an election is not a random event (some might like to dispute this, though), the poll results we have seen are to an extent random outcomes, and saying that the future election result has a random component is just a kind of shorthand for saying that given our observations, the future result has an amount of uncertainty. (This usage is a legit disagreement in statistics: roughly, frequentists balk at calling anything but "actually" random events random, while Bayesians happily model subjective uncertainty by probabilistic maths.)

As for "errors": If you had inadvertently made your 5,000 red balls slightly heavier than the blue ones, so they tended to move towards the bottom of the sack with shaking, you might end up with a consistent 57/43 Blue result for a different reason. This would be the equivalent of e.g. poor demographical weighting. This is a very different effect than the random polling effects described above, but it seems both are sometimes referred to as "polling error".

The big boy told his Florida crowd at a rally yesterday that he'd fire Fauci if he wins on Tuesday,

I hear there's a hotel with the name of a prominent tax avoider above the door, right across the street. Requisition that and move on.

No need, as it already belongs to GSA. And the tenant has been requesting a break on the rent.

So it's more likean eviction than a requisition.

Pretty clear with this third instance of the same problem that they’re deliberately leaving their supporters out in the cold to save money https://t.co/ReVxOJNwBO

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) November 2, 2020

Thanks, anatol. The vagueness of the word random had always bothered me and I’m a bit clearer now. Haven’t decided if I’m a Bayesian or a frequentist.

these next couple days, or possibly much more, are gonna be real rough going

And marvelous.

Alfred I've seen some perverse posts in my time but wow

optimism is serious kink

Alfred, tell me you'll be on the political threads on Tuesday night with a drink (or two) in hand.

You can count on it, PBKR.

Friends, I've entered a Zen state. I'm past the anxiety. I'm text banked, gone to rallies, done my part.

Aww, yeah!

New @CookPolitical: our FINAL House outlook is a Dem net gain of 10-15 seats, with anything from 5-20 seats well within the range of possibility. View our final ratings: https://t.co/wcfAZ8REga

Solid/Likely/Lean D: 229
Solid/Likely/Lean R: 179
Toss Up: 27 pic.twitter.com/WcdnWJLG16

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020

Meantime....

One state I am a bit curious about is Texas. Our forecast has been pretty skeptical about Biden's chances there, expecting Trump to close well. But instead Biden got a decent run of polls there this weekend and it now it has him within ~1 point. https://t.co/486ZZ385cV pic.twitter.com/efAeDAaXaX

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 2, 2020

i'm with Alfred on paper, and have really done okay at not spiralling into anxious news- and poll-following as i might well have done (given my track record). all signs point to a solid Biden win, maybe a blowout, but the memory of 2016 is in my body, my shoulder muscles, my stomach --- my brain is not driving the car right now. i just have to pass the time and get through these days. substances will likely be involved, tho i regret to say aperol has never quite landed with me.

Good morning!

I'm past Aperol, honey. I've got Fernet, Ramazzoti, Averna, Lucano, you name it.

Biden has passed the "clearly favored" 90% mark in FiveThirtyEight's forecast

Alfred do you know Sfumato? It's rhubarb-based and hence politically apt.

I only have time for barbs.

Tipsy, have you had Zucca? Just wondering how they compare.

GUYS, you’ll never believe what NYT did today on front page—it sent reporter to a deeply red state to interview white, middle aged men abt how much they love Trump! https://t.co/2ou7wyoZwu

— Eric Boehlert (@EricBoehlert) November 2, 2020

That headline...it's an Onion thing, right?

Was a diner involved?

i'm trying to get through training class knowing I care little about it, esp tomorrow.

someone give me a non-sequitur (work-appropriate) phrase to insert at some point of the training.

jesus i was going to make a joke about antifa burning his tractor and then i got to this:

"For his part, Mr. Rempel refuses to speculate about a motive, but here in Henderson, a certain fear is being whispered: The fire-starters are aligned with antifa, coming from the cities to attack their way of life."

beyond fucking parody

amari xposts

WmC I have not, but Imbibe says Zucca is a bit sweeter. Sfumato more or less tastes like wet dirt, in a good way.

I am going to work an anecdote about a Mr Rempel into my class today, thanking u

xposts re: NYTimes

NPR also this morning, as I was making breakfast for kids, seemed to be spotlighting Trump voters telling their stories of why they're voting for him.

Sudden relapses of both-sidesism as the stress levels rise and our legacy media can't handle the pressure

both-sidesisms might even be due to pressure from Editors wanting to retain a broader base of readers.

in other words, the typical chickenshit bullshit in the industry. hey editors, they don't love u hoes, you're fake news.

antifa hates the tractormen for their freedoms

Antifa burned my tractor/
because I doxxed a crisis actor

xps ty!

bg's post for new board description

Trumpers in mistaking their voracious coprophagia for a universal trait shocker.

No, you cracker POS, this is quality attributable only to you and yours because your brains are fucking broken.

Meanwhile in the Land of Schadenfreude:

From @WSJopinion: It was a serious failure for me, as a public figure, to go maskless at the White House, writes @GovChristie. I paid for it, and I hope Americans can learn from my experience.

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) October 22, 2020

Early vote total now 95 million, fully over double the entire 2016 early vote total. The last possible milestone of 100 million by tomorrow morning is in reach.

but it's like george washington used to say: "if you can't beat em cheat em"

I'm past Aperol, honey. I've got Fernet, Ramazzoti, Averna, Lucano, you name it.

Barf. In anything more than small doses in cocktails, amaros (and the herbal like) can go jump in a lake. I think tomorrow night feels like a beer (or wine) night to me. Easier to drink more, a pint/wine glass lasts longer than a coupe, no preparation necessary, and if things go well I can toast later with the good bourbon.

there is no way I'm going to spend the day after Election Day hungover

I think tomorrow night feels like a beer (or wine) night to me. Easier to drink more, a pint/wine glass lasts longer than a coupe, no preparation necessary, and if things go well I can toast later with the good bourbon.

Don't misjudge me. More than Negroni grosses me out. A bracing way, though, to prepare for wine.

*more than one Negroni

Amaro Nonino on ice with a slice of orange is very easy drinking!

Four Roses.

Spent last post-Election Day hungover at work, and I'm still feeling it. That's why I took Nov. 4 off.

I'm going to drink heavily if Biden wins but feeling a hangover come on at 3 AM as Trump's victory becomes more and more inevitable is not something I ever want to experience again

Trump says he's sending in lawyers to swing states as soon as voting ends https://t.co/Hjemi6vHJc

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) November 2, 2020

it's so stupid that he is telegraphing his intentions this way

what a stupid moron and a stupid country

bullshit, he can't even afford to pay bus drivers for a full shift never mind lawyers in multiple states

i mean i guess he send the DOJ but, like... where has barr been for the last 3 week (around, i know)

Apparently meeting with cops in the big cities for... reasons.

I've got to assume his lawyers have been working for Happy Meal coupons for the past several years, because no way can that guy afford all those billable hours. Maybe that's where the reelection war chest went.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/05/us/politics/trump-campaign-funds-legal-bills.html

Mr. Trump’s tendency to turn to the courts — and the legal issues that have stemmed from norm-breaking characteristics of his presidency — helps explain how he and his affiliated political entities have spent at least $58.4 million in donations on legal and compliance work since 2015, according to a tally by The New York Times and the nonpartisan Campaign Finance Institute.

it's so stupid that he is telegraphing his intentions this way

― treeship., Monday, November 2, 2020 9:22 AM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

the point is to undermine faith in our democracy

I get that's the point but even with conservative judges it's kinda hard to win a case if you make it clear right away that your intention all along was to have a judge throw it your way

Not with judges he's appointed, he's all about the loyalty, as he's made abundantly clear.

“I think it’s terrible when we can’t know the results of an election the night of an election in a modern-day age of computers,” said Trump, before alleging that the Democratic governors of Pennsylvania and Nevada would somehow interfere with accurate counting.

yeah bruh, so much for caring about voter fraud. guess we can dispense with the whole "making sure signatures match" part, right?

fuckin' idiot. and a large part of the reason the count won't be finished are state laws, and Kavanaugh has already shown a reticence to overturn state laws, so ....sue all you want, dickhole.

xpost loyalty to whom? they have appointments for life, unlike other Trump stooges, they don't need to please him anymore because he can't fire them.

bullshit, he can't even afford to pay bus drivers for a full shift never mind lawyers in multiple states

oh, he can, he just chooses not to

the legal fees are already banked I'm sure

xpost their terrible rulings have more to do with the fact that their brains and thought processes are damaged of their own volition rather than any fealty to Trump. hence why Kavanaugh rejected the PA court challenge while overturning the extension of deadline for Wisconsin. he has it in his head that any rules that state legislatures set are the governing power, whereas no Federal or state judge, since they're 'unelected', should overturn that.

(nevermind the irony of that statement, htat's how he's voted)

and in PA, one of the reasons the ballots won't be counted on time = the state law doesn't allow them to start counting early like it does in FL. so good luck Trump. we've never had a full count on Tuesday.

besides, I bet the numbers don't look good for him tomorrow so he'll change his tune.

Not with judges he's appointed, he's all about the loyalty, as he's made abundantly clear.

― soaring skrrrtpeggios (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, November 2, 2020 10:32 AM (one minute ago) bookmarkflaglink

"i appointed some wonderful corrupt judges and the purpose of them is to not enforce the law impartially and all of you should respect them for some reason otherwise you're being very unfair."

my brain just breaks with this stuff.

“I don’t think it’s fair that we have to wait a long period of time after the election,” Trump said. “If people wanted to get their ballots in, they should have gotten their ballots long before. They could have put their ballots in a month ago.”

that wouldn't speed up the count moron

if you find yourself assuming Trump and his advisers are doing stuff competently, according to a well-thought-out plan, with resources set aside to execute each step along the way, just stop.

If you don't think at least a couple of these dipshit lower court Trump appointees aren't going to very deliberately throw him a win in exchange for the lifetime appointment free ride, I don't really know what to say.

big time bet this is one of those weird flexes of telegraphing to his base something he is going to do, proving he's going to 'fight', and then he will wilt and not do anything once he sees the bad results. he always does this.

i think that is likely. his plan to cheat doesn't really make sense, especially because he is saying he is going to cheat.

xpost they haven't done that thus far! how many times has he railed at a federal judge for not ruling the way he wanted (read: a lot).

a judge doesn't give a shit once they're appointed. People Trump hires care because he can fire them. Judges, if they are loyal to Trump, it's because they actually like him and his ideals and they were broken to begin with.

to throw Trump a win with no legal basis, would basically be inviting daily harassment via phone and at home visits from angry liberal voters - p sure no judge wants that.

what the courts WILL do is help with disenfranchisement, by refusing to allow extensions to voting deadlines, or possibly voting to invalidate 'drive-in' votes (if that does happen though make no bones, I'll be furious)

We're moving into a phase where Trump's incompetency is largely irrelevant. This isn't about governance or legislation.

There's a whole machine with tremendous resources invested in stealing this thing if possible.

Trump always does his worst deeds without warning - when he tips his hand, he's doing it so his base will misremember and think he actually did it later.

that machine existed long before Trump. and there are legit fears to how this election can be tampered with, including that Texas judge who is going to rule on teh validity of 100,000+ drive-in ballots.

that machien does not include "arbitrarily deciding that only votes counted on Election Day count". that shit ain't gonna happen. there will be smaller cumulative other methods to chip away at the vote that Republicans and courts will utilize. that's what we have to be ready to fight in court.

My partner pointed out the reason he probably won’t do anything like announce pre-emptive victory or whatever: there’s not gonna be a crowd for him at the WH. He can’t effectively bullshit without an adoring crowd.

in any case, ain't worth giving yourself ulcers - the only thing I know for sure is Tuesday is going to go differently than any of us can imagine because we have a President with frontal lobe damage, a violent armed country, a fired up voter base, and a larger than usual vote-by-mail total. for all I know Jar Jar Binks will be elected

and if you guess right as to the shit that he's going to pull, there is exactly nobody who is going to high-five you for predicting it, and you'll still have your ulcers.

i suspect he WILL declare pre-emptive victory IF he is ahead at midnight. i don't think he will be ahead at that time, though. and even if he did declare victory before the votes were counted, i am skeptical he could actually get enough votes thrown out. it would need to be a close race for that to happen, like 2000.

Heads up, people.

"Trump will declare that the election is being stolen from him to justify trying to steal it himself. But this plot constitutes a bet on massive institutional failure by the news media to render that basic situation with total clarity." https://t.co/ojp04mnahM

— Jay Rosen (@jayrosen_nyu) November 2, 2020

There's a whole machine with tremendous resources invested in stealing this thing if possible.

Ah Parscale, what a Death Star you built.

The Trump website isn’t that effective at finding polling locations, it would appear from my experience. Their website couldn’t find my polling location, but the nonprofit the site says it’s powered by to find that information found it immediately. pic.twitter.com/rrKGDUoXRL

— Jessica Huseman (@JessicaHuseman) November 2, 2020

xxpost - To be clear, I don't mean "help him win the election" when I say "toss him a win", I'm talking about these smaller decisions that end up disenfranchising small groups of voters here and there. Some of these idiots are absolutely filled with conservative brain rot and will rule in ways that will end up helping Trump in small ways, and I think it's pretty naïve to pretend that they are all going to be high minded and always follow the rule of the law because they no longer feel in thrall to Trump. I argue that some of them absolutely do feel like they owe him something and will try to steer the smaller decisions in his way, should they get the chance. Enough to alter the course of the entire election? No. But c'mon. Let's not pretend every single Trump appointed judge is a paragon of virtue. That's ridiculous.

There's a whole machine with tremendous resources invested in stealing this thing if possible.

There’s really not but OK
― sound of scampo talk to me (El Tomboto), Monday, November 2, 2020 10:44 AM (five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Can you disagree or offer something to the contrary without being a complete cunt? wtf

What would you refer to the apparatus that has been funding the churning out of judges? I was respondinng to the contention above that Trump can't afford to litigate the results, which of course he can, he'll have plenty of help, it's already budgeted.
'

HOW would you refer to...

I mean, isn't the whole reason the GOP loves to pack the courts at every opportunity is because they want to fill the seats with judges that are even slightly more likely to swing a decision their way? To pretend they suddenly aren't going to do so just because there's a major election seems... weird.

Boom:

BREAKING: In the final tally, Democrats have overtaken Republicans in Miami-Dade Early voting:

Dems: 183,667
Reps: 183,264
NPA: 139,606
Other: 7,086#flapol #sayfie #election2020

— Dave Trotter (@DaNumbersGuy) November 2, 2020

good showing by the npas, aka the neil patrick affiliates

the NPA vote in Florida will be one-of-a-kind.

I don't believe it's likely Donald Trump can "steal" the election. I'm 100% certain he will try, and that in the event he fails it won't be due to a lack of resources, poor organization, too few lawyers, or too little outside help in general.

That NPA number is crazy!

you assume:

1. the judges are all bought (they’re not)
2. they actually have money set aside to pay lawyers (no reason to believe his campaign can do this since they can’t afford buses atm)
3. the lawyers will be capable of mounting serious arguments (nothing about the campaign or his other non-DOJ attorneys so far suggests this)
4. they have analyzed the situation strategically and are poised to strike in the states and precincts where the numbers will be close (there is no indication whatsoever that this campaign is even remotely equipped to accomplish such a thing)

There’s been a bunch of stuff about the republicans leading in ground game stuff (registration, canvassing, door knocking) mainly because they don’t care about covid. This is a good story with that in mind.

If I were a Republican this story would be a flashing red alert siren for me https://t.co/xlN25lMue7

— Aaron (@BobbyBigWheel) November 2, 2020

NPA is good for Biden right? feel like a big chunk of that is young people who don't register under a certain party

2. they actually have money set aside to pay lawyers (no reason to believe his campaign can do this since they can’t afford buses atm)

c'mon now, they can easily afford busses they just see no benefit in doing so

they stopped all their ad buys in how many battlegrounds? they’re completely strapped for cash.

NPA is good for Biden right? feel like a big chunk of that is young people who don't register under a certain party

― frogbs,

Yep. I need to find the stats showing Florida voters under 30 support Biden overwhelmingly but don't wanna be Democrats.

1. the judges are all bought (they’re not)

Yeah, they don't need to be "bribed." A significant number are ideologues on a mission. What country have you been watching?

2. they actually have money set aside to pay lawyers (no reason to believe his campaign can do this since they can’t afford buses atm)

They will absolutely find the resources to litigate these results, it's just naive to think this will come down to a lack of money.

3. the lawyers will be capable of mounting serious arguments (nothing about the campaign or his other non-DOJ attorneys so far suggests this)

This has absolutely nothing to do with filing paperwork and creating delays. Again, have you met the Republican party?

I mean I guess you could say there is a “machine” ready to steal the election for Trump, in the sense that a 1985 Yugo is a machine.

Nobody said anything about "serious arguments."

The Republican Party is a machine. This is a weird thing to get hung up on.

This Machine Doesn't Kill Lawyers

TOMBOT knows the federal bureaucracy and the processes of a political party, so I tend to side with him in these arguments.

Further to Tombot's point: isn't it patently obvious by now that Trump's on the last bit of the bully defense, the great bluff? There's barely any there there. That various toadies and lickspittles are trying things isn't a surprise but there's hardly a grand scale of it. Consider Texas -- so, obviously, lots of back and forth in past weeks, clearly bullshit on Abbott's part, etc. But this last punt re the Harris County drive-throughs -- already shot down separately by the state Supreme Court, all Republican -- is the work of, what, Allen West, who Abbott seems to have little love for, and a disgruntled GOP rep? As for Trump himself, he's grasping at the last straws he can, the 'shitposting' as Kilgore Trout puts it on Twitter, and that's all he has and all he's been doing, even today.

xp And the Brook Brothers rioters were unpaid volunteers

Brooks

The Republican Party is a machine. This is a weird thing to get hung up on.

I don't believe that the smacking down of several absurd lawsuits speaks even remotely to the likelihood of more such lawsuits. This is what happens when the strategy is to throw everything at the wall and see what sticks.

The PA results at least will be litigated.

I tend to agree with Tombot too. He's about the only one speaking from a place of knowledge and reason rather than shellshocked fear.

Hi-tech GOP operative at work:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_845ywsAF1Oc/R14KltELALI/AAAAAAAAAF0/hG8T6VV0uy4/s1600-h/jonah_goldberg_in_car.jpg

xp no but this kind of typically flip, condescending shit is

There’s really not but OK

The national strategy of disqualifying as many votes as possible is not a Trump hail Mary, it is the primary republican approach going forward. Their lock on the courts is what makes it possible because they have their judges in place who are ready and willing to side with voter suppression regardless of whether the law or logic is on their side.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_845ywsAF1Oc/R14KltELALI/AAAAAAAAAF0/hG8T6VV0uy4/s1600-h/jonah_goldberg_in_car.jpg

🚨 DK Election Pool Alert: With over 350K entries, a majority of people in every state besides Colorado predict that @realdonaldtrump will be the winner of tomorrow’s election. pic.twitter.com/zUF0uZZtwK

— DraftKings (@DraftKings) November 2, 2020

one thing that's absolutely gonna be fun to watch (if there does not happen to be a catastrophic nationwide polling error) is the subsequent meltdown from Republicans, the majority of whom legitimately think Trump is going to win tomorrow.

dammit

If by fun you mean watching armed militias take to the streets to terrorize people, then yeah, I agree.

Can someone among you characterize the forces by which Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed to the Supreme Court, having nothing whatever to do with Donald J. Trump, and explain how that same apparatus is supposed to be incapable of mounting a case (however nonserious or unlikely to succeed?) against, for instance, the PA results?

These are the worst sore losers I've ever seen, it won't be pretty.

Hadrian, I'm with you.

Also, I'm just going to say it: I find gambling so distasteful that that Draft Kings graphic made me more viscerally angry than I've been in a day or two.

This is very high-stakes for the same people, for the same reasons, with the additional motivation of prosecutorial immunity for a host of crimes.

Yes, especially when the rush to confirm Barrett was explicitly about making sure the election would be thrown to Trump.

Hadrian, the Trump campaign is not the Senate.

Seems to me the rush was more like McConnell thinking "Yeah we will not get this chance again for a while," and that isn't even about Senate control but not having a GOP president to do the nominating. Hell there was that report back in summer he was suggesting various federal judges should retire while they could so he could get them replaced before he couldn't anymore.

lmao Draft King's nationwide poll of 41 year old white male degenerate gamblers

xxp The Trump campaign is not twhat we're talking about. "The Trump Campaign" as such hardly exists. The prime mover in a contested election is the same coalition of Heritage Institute, AEI, the Koches and Sheldon Adelsons, etc.

ILX Will Eat Itself

The notion that these parties are going to suddenly sit back and not get involved because "not serious" or whatever seems jusut shockingly naive. They are bracing for their gains in SCOTUS and regulatory rollbacks to be wiped out in year one.

why would a bunch of think tanks throw good money after bad on behalf of a loser?

never mind, this is dumb. nobody’s learning anything here.

If by fun you mean watching armed militias take to the streets to terrorize people, then yeah, I agree.

― Mr. Cacciatore (Moodles), Monday, November 2, 2020 9:21 AM (eleven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

all right, i'm out of this thread

enjoy your panic spirals everyone

Could we maybe not do the part where we start shaming each other for how we are dealing with this tremendous anxiety>

Not in response to your post Brad, but in general, we all aren't all at Alfred's level of zen here yet folks.

probably not, I was already a dick to Hadrian apparently and that’s purely because I’m choosing to process this week differently than he is

ah yes, panic spiraling, the tried and true mechanism for coping with anxiety. works every time.

I think we are all, obviously, at different phases and methods of trying to make it through the week.

FFS there's a difference between "panic spiraling" and understandably anxious over how things could go wrong and/or sideways tomorrow. Jesus Christ.

I’m reading Wodehouse this week. Highly recommend it if you have the option.

It's entirely possible to ackowlege danger w/o "panicking." I know we'll never get past this dyamic here, but that assertion always rings to me as a little bit of projection.

Personally I'm cautiously optimistic. AND I know better by now than to underestimate the enemy.

Muriel Spark too.

xpost

Do we have an Election Panic thread so we can keep this one a bit less manic?

A huge chunk of Trump's stop counting votes at 12:01 AM on 11/4 argument will get blown to shit if he is behind at that time and I think there is a very good chance that is the case.

I appreciate the rosier takes here! Nobody's slamming Alfred for feeling solid about things... It just always only seems to happen in the other direction.

xp No reason we can't have both and let everybody find their own level

i mean whatever, i've just accepted i'm not going to be real calm for the next few days
i'm gonna get tipsy and stoned tomorrow night
not the most healthy but fuck it
i'm just acknowledging this is what's going down and i'm not going to further stress myself out by feeling bad about it

FFS there's a difference between "panic spiraling" and understandably anxious over how things could go wrong and/or sideways tomorrow. Jesus Christ.

― soaring skrrrtpeggios (jon /via/ chi 2.0), Monday, November 2, 2020 11:40 AM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

Which one helps you and the outcome?

@ulysses

rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread

generally i don't think unloading anxiety into a conversation with other ppl is the best way of dealing with anxiety

i'm not shaming anyone it's just... if you take a step back you will realize we're stuck in a loop

Fuck the massive, shitty levels of condescension itt today. I'm out.

I hope I didn't sound smug a couple hours ago. I posted my mood because I was in the minority and thought it worth sharing.

A huge chunk of Trump's stop counting votes at 12:01 AM on 11/4 argument will get blown to shit if he is behind at that time and I think there is a very good chance that is the case.

Yeah, I really don't understand the whole "election day voting will be all Republican -> RED TIDE!!!" line of thinking. Look, the overwhelming majority of Americans find Donald Trump repellent and are frothing at the mouth to be rid of him. I know you can't convince ILXors or New York Times reporters of that fact, but it's true. Do you really think every single anti-Trump voter shot their wad already? Fuck no. Turnout is gonna be an avalanche tomorrow, and remember that it's a simple rule of the universe: the more voters show up, the worse Republicans do. They fucking well know it, and you all should too.

xp It is worth sharing, and you didn't sound smug.

generally i don't think unloading anxiety into a conversation with other ppl is the best way of dealing with anxiety

I think it could be, in real life. On a message board? Probably not. Which is to say, I recommend focusing energy of connecting positively with real people, as available, not least because we are all going to be tuned/attuned to the virtual world for the next 48 hours.

i am also prob reacting to the fact that the current discourse online resembles doomsday prep

I also think turnout is going to be insane on Election Day, as opposed to the (reasonable) theory that it'll be below-average because people are voting early due to COVID-19.

Per Trump, really, who the fuck cares what he says? He called the 2018 election a red wave iirc both before *and after* it happened. This is a moron who complained about vote fraud *after he won.* All he is is (unpleasant) white noise, like non-stop planes taking off.

Do we have an Election Panic thread so we can keep this one a bit less manic?

― Fuck the NRA (ulysses),

i think it makes sense to keep it here.

if/when there are 10,000 posts by Nov 4, we can do a part 2

Turnout estimates, FWIW, are definitely trending upward. Last week guesses were hovering at an average of a little over 150 million. I've now seen a few more that are shifting it to 160, possibly even higher. (170 was one claim, which, amazing if it happened.)

xp i'm taking the under there

its a different kind of anxiety this time around

4 years ago we all knew a Trump victory was gonna be horrible but idk if we really envisioned how bad things would get, like I don't think "he'll massively fuck up a pandemic which might prevent us all from seeing our family and friends for 2 years" was on anyone's Bingo card

this time if he wins we kinda know exactly what the stakes are - we're out of the Paris Accord, we're done with the WHO, we won't try to stop the virus (and likely are just gonna settle for 3 million dead Americans), and with a 6-3 SC majority & hundreds of Trump judges we may never get another free & fair election again. I think if Trump wins the country is basically done for. I thought America could survive 4 years, I don't think it can survive 8

on the other hand, there are just so many signs that Republicans are about to get wiped off the map, which you didn't have in 2016. I get that the cultists are firmly in his corner but he's gonna need way more than that, and if 2016 non-voters/undecideds/independents are seriously looking at the last 4 years and thinking "yes, 4 more years of this" then America is not worth saving

Speaking of what Trump says and how he says it, I'm beginning to think, if things go Biden's way tomorrow, that it was the first debate that really firmed things up. Biden showed he was competent and coherent, not the babbling old person they tried to paint him as, and Trump turned his asshole level up to 11 and went Full Trump, which no one wanted to see.

i think it makes sense to keep it here.

if/when there are 10,000 posts by Nov 4, we can do a part 2

― just another 3-pinnochio post by (Karl Malone), Monday, 2 November 2020 16:54 (three minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'm not wishing the usa luck again just fyi

xp i'm taking the under there

― Fuck the NRA (ulysses)

in the spirit of our current time, i don't use exact numbers anymore. if it's more than i can count on my finger and toes, it's at least "10,000". either that or 0. could be fake! either way, feel free to translate my numeric values to whatever system you're using

imago...you have to

YOU HAVE TO WISH US LUCK!

the 2016 election was trauma, it's not surprising are processing it like a trauma which often doesn't manifest in rational ways

like i would love to work on myself and get better at processing emotions and anxiety

don't really think that's happening in the next 48 hours, you just make it worse for yourself for feeling guilty about whatever way you are processing or coping

i did, on this thread, but if u start another thread the spell will be broken and the usa will have bad luck. send this to 7 friends

Speaking of what Trump says and how he says it, I'm beginning to think, if things go Biden's way tomorrow, that it was the first debate that really firmed things up. Biden showed he was competent and coherent, not the babbling old person they tried to paint him as, and Trump turned his asshole level up to 11 and went Full Trump, which no one wanted to see.

― Josh in Chicago

and something happened to Trump two days after the debate

Texas, Pennsylvania:
Biden is against Second Amendment and Fracking. Please remember!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 2, 2020

don't think I've ever seen a Republican try to shore up TEXAS on election eve

Please remember! vs please clap

i do think the constant trump (and left) assertions that biden was basically an alzheimer's patient created an incredibly low bar for him, he just had to show up and say some stuff and make sense

Do we have an Election Panic thread so we can keep this one a bit less manic?
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses)

@ulysses
rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread
― it bangs for thee (Simon H.)

That's a Greil Marcus thread now. Long story.

Texas, Pennsylvania...is that part of Pennsyltucky?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F69tcpIa4Xk

ums otm, my frequent angst about the internet being one gigantic traumatized grieving brain is probably not going to penetrate in the next say 48 hours

People who have unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden ("double haters")

Wisconsin
Biden: 62%
Trump: 11%

Iowa
Biden: 67%
Trump: 7%

Ohio
Biden: 62%
Trump: 13%

— Drew Linzer (@DrewLinzer) November 2, 2020

I honestly do not see how Trump can even make this close. these numbers are fucking AWFUL for him. he won this group 2:1 in 2016. and yes, there's only half as many this time around but only because Biden is significantly more well-liked than Clinton.

Do we have an Election Panic thread so we can keep this one a bit less manic?
― Fuck the NRA (ulysses)

@ulysses
rolling “Trump is gonna win” containment thread
― it bangs for thee (Simon H.)

That's a Greil Marcus thread now. Long story.

― clemenza, Monday, November 2, 2020 11:02 AM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

I Will Wait 'Til it All Goes 'Round: Richard Manuel's Vanished America and the Shy Trump Voter

WTF is with the 'just don't be anxious, sheesh!' responses to expressions of anxiety itt this morning

i think y'all are misreading me. i am anxious

i am currently not looking for more reasons to feel anxious, and am trying to stem the tide

it's all good

I think I might take up pica or something for the next 24 hours

Have now heard of three private polls - from both parties - that have Trump up 1 or tied in FL-15

That’s heavily Polk Co. @adamputnam country.

Trump won it by 10 in 2016.

Surveys a couple weeks ago.

— Jonathan Martin (@jmartNYT) November 2, 2020

if this is true Trump's done in Florida

I just got to the party.

I think it is necessary to take Trump at his word when he says things like 'when you get rid of the ballots there is no transition of power' and 'I'll accept the results, if I win'. These are not bluffs, in that they reflect his real thoughts, desires, and intentions.

otoh, having thoughts, desires and intentions does not equate to the ability to make these into accomplished facts. Elections take place in fifty states and thousands of counties, handling tens of millions of votes. This scope of operations effectively ensures the only election you can steal is a very close one.

While theoretically it could all come down to PA, in reality Trump would have to run the table of close states again, as he did in 2016, while many states that were close in 2016 aren't very close today. This time he's having to shore up states like TX and GA that were firmly in his column last time. And now he's not running against Hilary, who had the second highest negatives of any modern candidate (just behind Trump).

What's more likely in my mind is Trump whipping up anger among his supporters and creating as much chaos as he can, in the hope that he can somehow leverage chaos in his favor. If nothing else, as a bargaining chip in his seeking not to be prosecuted and sent to jail.

In Texas, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are tied.

- Biden 48.1%
- Trump 48.1%https://t.co/jLPH4hTBgX pic.twitter.com/kwp9XJMM7M

— Morning Consult (@MorningConsult) November 2, 2020

again - unless this is massively off.....

maybe you win Texas, but you don't win re-election as a Republican going from +9 in Texas to +0

A little illustration of unperson's point re not all the anti-Trump votes being in -- using California as a 'safe' state as an example, shall we say, to prevent anxiety spike. If you look at the Elections Project total:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/CA.html

You'll see that 22 million ballots went out and only 11 million have been returned so far. This year California mailed out a ballot to every registered voter in response to COVID, the first time it's ever done that. There were GOP gripes -- Darrell Issa and cronies tried to fight it -- but it went nowhere after various court decisions and things are progressing as they would. Since this IS the first time, it's safe to assume that not every ballot will be returned -- simply because not everyone ever in the state among registered voters has actually voted! IIRC in state history the highest has been something in the 80s percentage range. So even with this fuller/easier access, we'll have to see how far it goes.

In terms of comparative percentages, the early vote has now reached 76 percent of 2016 -- a good turnout, certainly, but also somewhat unlikely that 100% will be reached by tomorrow. By default there's a lot of people who will be voting on the day. A number of those people will be GOP types thinking "Only me voting on the day itself counts!" They can think that. But breaking down the return rate percentages shows that while there's a Democratic lead in the returned ballots, by no means has every registered Democrat voted, and the second highest 'party' in the state consists of people like me without a party affiliation (or who belong to minor parties) still hasn't broken 50%. And -- apologies to caek but this is just to illustrate rather than to claim definitively -- IF somehow every reigstered GOP voter voted here and they presumably all voted for Trump (which, trust me, no), even then, again assuming absolute uniformity, the current returned Democratic total tops that, while the NPA group breaks Biden. Point is, there are still more Democratic votes to come, and they won't all be by mail.

Different states, different situations, fully understood. Just something to keep in mind.

This is one hell of a Twitter thread re that stupid-ass Nebraska story they ran this morning:

oh New York times you got taken for a ride honey pic.twitter.com/Rpcx6bKIzk

— Dr Sarah Taber (@SarahTaber_bww) November 2, 2020

yeah i guess i don't know shit but i fall back to if early voting wasn't beneficial to democrats the GOP wouldn't be trying so hard to stop it

when I rallied last weekend, an older black woman was telling a Karen type: "We don't vote by mail. We just show up."

Final 2020 @MorningConsult polls:

Biden leads Trump 51.9% - 43.9%

AZ: Biden +2
FL: Biden +6
GA: Biden +2
MI: Biden +7
MN: Biden +9
NC: Biden +1
Ohio: Trump +3
PA: Biden +9
TX: Tie
WI: Biden +13https://t.co/qo7rflgzxt pic.twitter.com/94UZY5NFtp

— Rick Newman (@rickjnewman) November 2, 2020

Early voting/expansion of the process is absolutely welcome and does help the Democrats in general, and the GOP absolutely would love it if it was only their own dedicated come-rain-come-shine types who had the advantage. But as Alfred just noted, and there's studies and studies and more showing this, not everyone will vote using that process.

The Ohio Secretary of State (R) was asked point blank about Trump wanting all ballots counted by Tuesday night, and he retorted, “That’s not how elections work.” Watching more of the Republican electeds outside the Beltway turn on Trump is really fun, and I hope it sticks.

— Lucy Caldwell (@lucymcaldwell) November 2, 2020

Anyway, incremental for the day but I might as well do running updates on the early vote here for election eve -- we are now at 96 million.

People who have unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden ("double haters")

Wisconsin
Biden: 62%
Trump: 11%

Iowa
Biden: 67%
Trump: 7%

Ohio
Biden: 62%
Trump: 13%

That is the most reassuring thing I have seen in the last six months.

I couldn't find the state-by-state numbers for 2016, but final national numbers for 2016 appeared to be 30% Hillary and 47% Trump, which is just a massive, massive swing.

Like from Trump +17 to -19 is crazy.

massively fucking up a pandemic will do that

apologies if this has already been posted

Longtime GOP lawyer Ben Ginsberg and former Texas House Speaker filed an amicus opposing a GOP suit to toss 127K drive-thru ballots in Texas, arguing it violates federal law.

Concludes by noting this is same argument Ginsberg and Amy Coney Barrett used in 2000 recount pic.twitter.com/ANDRe6Vsy0

— Jane C. Timm (@janestreet) November 2, 2020

xpost yeah, crazy if not for Trump, whose greatest attribute is being an asshole.

I don't think the group that hated both in 2016 is at all the same people that it is now

OPINION
Biden will win Nevada, blue wave should help down ballot
By @RalstonReports https://t.co/ZKJKiD3KZ9

— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) November 2, 2020

Illinois, one of the few states always guaranteed to go blue, has had early voting for a couple of weeks, and last I heard had around 50% of 2016's turn out so far.

I wonder if we've ever actually had a presidential election where all votes were counted on election night? Certainly not for most of our history.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6CNOHp46ios

I don't think the group that hated both in 2016 is at all the same people that it is now

― Wayne Grotski (symsymsym), Monday, November 2, 2020 12:44 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

This is fair speculation, It is also probably fair to say they are snapshots of which way people that are fed up with politics and might not normally vote will be breaking.

A solid story on my congressional district.

Meanwhile, kinda like the Texas case today there was a similar stupidity in Nevada, which just got destroyed:

Judge rejects Trump campaign effort to slow down, amend Clark County mail ballot counting and processing system https://t.co/MsnvHl7lhb

— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) November 2, 2020

This order is an utter evisceration of the GOP's attempt at voter suppression and exposes the lack of evidence on every claim.

An appeal to the state Supreme Court is a fool's errand, and since the NV GOP is a ship of fools... https://t.co/khhVhM2dqx

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 2, 2020

Judge was probably elected, and therefore biased toward Democracy. Not fair!

So, I finally called the Chicago Board of Elections yesterday about the fact that the mail-in ballot that I put in a drop box two weeks ago still hadn't been registered in the system as accepted. They suggested that I vote in person and sign an affidavit to cancel the mail-in ballot if it ever turns up. So I stood in line at an early voting site this morning and did that, and now I at least have the peace of mind of knowing that I did my part.

This is Trump's real impeachment trial. The US Senate fucked it up the last time.

I mean that's literally what Nancy and everyone else who kneecapped the investigation last time said

which is gonna make it all the more infuriating if Biden wins by 5 but still loses the EC

then we would DEFINITELY have to start planning on thinking of opening up more serious questions related to the exploration of reimagining the election system in this country

One man, one vote. (I am the man in question.)

but now is not the right time. August 2021 has been designated as the one month that would be the best fit for discussion election reform, in the following term. let's not push it into September 2021 either, because obviously the FY will be coming up and some things have to take priority

a nation puts its voting trust into one man, ned raggett.

LEGALIZE IT NED!

here's my election night plan for unclenching.

these are the states that might declare on the night in order of how much a biden win would make me unclench.

if trump sweeps all five of these then a legal fight in PA (if not actual violence) seems likely and i will thus remain clenched.

TEXAS
miiiiight declare on election night
a long shot obviously, but worth so many EVs that it's pretty much a done deal if it goes biden

FLORIDA
will probably declare on election night, probably first among these states
toss up. if it goes biden it's basically over AFAICT

OHIO
miiiiight declare on election night
bit of a long shot for biden, worth a decent number of EVs, but the main thing is that if it goes biden it's a very strong sign that PA should be OK
see https://newrepublic.com/article/160022/ohio-state-watch-election-night

NORTH CAROLINA
will probably declare on election night
basically the same deal as ohio

ARIZONA
will probably declare on election night
if biden wins this and there are not 10+ point surprises in WI and MI (or anywhere else) then it's over in principle (but this happening, biden winning WI and MI and the single votes in maine and nebraska, and trump winning everything else he won in 2016 gives biden a 1-2 vote win in the EC, so the possibility of legal shenanigans etc. would make me a little nervous to unclench on this alone).

I'll relax tomorrow night if Biden takes any two of those states (and I'd add Georgia to the list)

Biden's PA barnstorm today includes stops in all three counties that swung from Obama to Trump in 2016: Erie, Luzerne and Northampton.

— Julia Terruso (@JuliaTerruso) November 2, 2020

xp georgia won't declare on the night, but definitely.

Early vote to 96.5 million -- we are now at 70% of the entire voting turnout of 2016.

I voted (in PA) so many weeks ago, I kinda feel like I should get to do it again

lol

This cracks me up: Crystal Ball lists FL as R and their reason is explicitly the same as nervous D's and contains the caveat they've been wrong four cycles in a row (!!!!) https://t.co/uWPeluTG9k pic.twitter.com/PB5sVRqaqq

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) November 2, 2020

Crystal Ball with the emotional hedge!

also this made me smile:

No. https://t.co/3UaNxY1DSs

— Harris County Clerk (@HarrisVotes) November 2, 2020

Hey Trump just promised to fire Fauci. That seems important, insane, unsurprising, newsworthy, scary, and bad politics.

— Brian Schatz (@brianschatz) November 2, 2020

Even if President Trump finds himself awarded the same fate as impeached President Richard Nixon — that is to say, either not charged with or pardoned of any hypothetical federal crimes — there’s no chance he will slink away from public life.

And the reason is two-fold: First he probably won’t be legally allowed to. He or his predecessor could pardon him of any federal charges lobbed against him post-presidency. But he has no control over the outcome of various state investigations into his business — most notably the one by Cyrus Vance in New York, looking into his businesses.

But, secondly, like any addict, Trump’s cravings for attention will not be easily satiated post-presidency by the mere fame and fortune that being a former leader of the free world brings. A new article in the New Yorker spells out just how dependent President Trump has become on his throngs of fans for personal fulfillment, incapable of returning to the life of a real estate mogul or a has-been celebrity that evokes little adoration or interest outside the realm of reality TV.

From the New Yorker’s Jane Mayer:

"Last winter, a Cabinet secretary told me Trump had confided that he couldn’t imagine returning to his former life as a real-estate developer. As the Cabinet secretary recalled, the two men were gliding along in a motorcade, surrounded by throngs of adoring supporters, when Trump remarked, “Isn’t this incredible? After this, I could never return to ordering windows. It would be so boring.”

President Trump apparently has his sights set on remaining relevant to his base, even if that base of supporters no longer has a leader to devote themselves to. As morbid as it may seem, President Trump is, according to Mayer’s reporting, interested in taking over Rush Limbaugh’s radio show if the longtime feverish conservative commentator passes away (he has stage four lung cancer). Trump awarded Limbaugh the Presidential Medal of Freedom in January, during a made-for-reality-TV State of the Union address

don't expect a slinking return to irrelevance

wasn't expecting it, tbh, but good to know

trump taking over for rush would kind of be perfect though

give him the same $50M+/yr salary! that will be the most consistently profitable trump enterprise he's ever been involved with

and as a bonus, much of his fanbase is reduced to screaming in their cars

He or his predecessor could pardon him of any federal charges lobbed against him post-presidency.

Uh, do u maybe mean 'successor' TPM? Or is Trump gonna have to start kissing some major Obama ass?

omg taking over for Rush would be perfect for that guy. I mean, I would prefer he died, but still, by all means, lock the guy in a bunker and let me ignore him for the rest of his life as I've ignored Rush Limbaugh.

i hate it just because it's a really solid financial life preserver for him, i want him to die in poverty

RW media is incredibly well funded by billionaire chuds, so that seems highly unlikely to ever happen.

If the reporting is correct, Trump has $900 million in debt falling due in the next four years.

really hard for a guy with 30-40 million rabid fans to not find a way to make money off them

let me ignore him for the rest of his life as I've ignored Rush Limbaugh.

exactly. i mean, i hate rush limbaugh with a burning passion, and i was so happy when i learned he was getting closer to dying, at some point i think i just told myself he was dead. so i had to check wikipedia just now to check. still alive - for now. anyway, i hate his fucking guts, but that's for personal reasons, not because i actually have to listen to him or see him that often, if ever. somehow he is widely heard and emulated and respected by the worst people, influential in his own way, but his toxic bullshit is bottled up inside cars and the headphones of that one guy in the office who fucking sucks. for trump to stuff himself into that same bottle would be so satisfying

xp, you'd think, but he lost money running a casino

NYS charges seem to be the most likely knife; this headline piece in the New Yorker covers most of the post-election permutations and should be non-registration accessible?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/11/09/why-trump-cant-afford-to-lose

Early vote at 97 million.

A grisly thought

“Love me women of the suburbs. Love me.”—President Trump in Scranton, PA.

— Michael C. Bender (@MichaelCBender) November 2, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1pW7T7MbZQ

*chef kiss*

In less guarded moments, the president over recent weeks has told advisers he is worried about new prosecutions, including by federal prosecutors, if he loses https://t.co/egobOGceFl

— Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) November 2, 2020

I know there are so many more important things at stake right now but seriously I'll be pissed if we'll be deprived the opportunity to watch this worm spend the rest of his life in court, slowly going broke

but everyone knows that the casino business is the most rigged against the owners, the owners are treated the least fairly. it is very hard to make money running a casino, the odds are stacked against you from the second you make the deal

In a statement sent Monday morning after the order was published, Nevada Republican Party Chair Michael McDonald said the ruling "should send a chill down every Nevadan’s spine" and that the party was evaluating an expedited appeal to the state Supreme Court.

gotta love this literal appeal to people's lizard brains

I know there are so many more important things at stake right now but seriously I'll be pissed if we'll be deprived the opportunity to watch this worm spend the rest of his life in court, slowly going broke

man i definitely fake it to some degree at my job but reading this kind of thing almost makes me break a sweat

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/El2CEaXW0AEyhWa?format=jpg&name=900x900

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/02/upshot/needle-election-forecast.html

It’s back (for Georgia, Florida and North Carolina only).

hell no

god fuck that

avoid used needles

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49M10VIXPk4

Has anyone mentioned Sam Wang in 2020 or is the name too traumatic?

needle + dread

Whomp whomp

BREAKING: Judge Hanen holds the plaintiffs don't have standing in Texas drive-thru voting case.

GOP challengers lose.

— Adam Klasfeld (@KlasfeldReports) November 2, 2020

nice

Needles are good. They are better than the running vote tally, which basically tells you nothing unless you pay attention to which precincts have reported, which is exactly what the needle is doing.

I’ve seen the needle and the damage done...

As I understand it from lawyer friends, the lack of standing was crystal clear. What's a little scary is that it make me feel better about Pennsylvania to hear a clear rejection of the legal theory for throwing out votes that were legally cast at the time of casting. But I think from a legal standpoint, it is correct that you judge standing first, and if you decide there's no standing, you don't reach the merits of the case.

Having a regular radio show seems too close to actual work for Trump to actually want to do it

yeah definitely nice to see their most overt attempts at voter suppression fail

Having a regular radio show seems too close to actual work for Trump to actually want to do it

A Trump radio show would be three hours of him talking about what he saw on Fox News the night before.

Reporters & activists spent a primary year portraying Democrats as moving left & embracing ideological politics. But Biden has run a decidedly non-ideological campaign. If he & moderate Senate candidates win, unclear why they would learn a different lesson than they normally do

— Matt Grossmann (@MattGrossmann) November 2, 2020

In governance, Dems may encounter similar internal difficulties as 2009 (even with many of same issues, eg health & climate). But the left traditionally concedes if the alternative is passing nothing. It’s unclear why that changes now. & Red state Dems may get cautious quickly

— Matt Grossmann (@MattGrossmann) November 2, 2020

Nothin but good times ahead!

A Trump radio show would be three hours of him talking about what he saw on Fox News the night before.

Ah, so literally Talking Dead.

The Lorem Ipsum Audiobook

maybe he could become a twitch streamer and just watch Fox News and talk about it live?

Having a regular radio show seems too close to actual work for Trump to actually want to do it

totally. limbaugh's show is three hours long, five days a week, and you can't just repeat the same rally speech over and over. trump likes to ramble, for sure, but i actually think he'd run out of steam pretty quick. would be kind of hilarious if he got the show and then was dumped after like six weeks as even his fans got bored and the ratings collapsed.

Has anyone mentioned Sam Wang in 2020 or is the name too traumatic?

― Donald Trump Also Sucks, Of Course (milo z), Monday, November 2, 2020 3:27 PM bookmarkflaglink

think he took the mistake well, he's been more humble. I read his page, but admittedly i'm never gonna fully trust him again.

The hell is this?

The New York Times is using this as their election graphic and I don't know what's real any more. pic.twitter.com/TnyVg8kXwc

— spankybackpack (@spankybackpack) November 2, 2020

sonic screwdriver to the rescue

PA's polls from today = more of the same, Biden +5-ish. only outliers are mostly Republican polling firms (i.e. liars):

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

can we stop fantasizing about giving Trump a post-Presidency job and continue fantasizing about trying him for treason

also should I start a "TS: Sam Wang vs Ken Bone" poll y/n

Hello from the Bucks County Courthouse! These PA voters have been in line here on a frigid morning to correct issues w/ their absentee ballots. They had been notified to come in and fix. Voters tell us they’re willing to wait as long as it takes to make sure their vote counts. pic.twitter.com/64NBk1LlZU

— Caitlin Huey-Burns (@CHueyBurns) November 2, 2020

they're masked and unarmed, can't be Trump voters

maybe he could become a twitch streamer and just watch Fox News and talk about it live?

― Blues Guitar Solo Heatmap (Free Download) (upper mississippi sh@kedown), Monday, November 2, 2020 3:42 PM (four minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

"RogStoneZone thanks for the tier 1 subscription for 14 months! Least you could do I guess. Appreciate the support. Enjoy the MAGA emotes buddy"

(and likely are just gonna settle for 3 million dead Americans)

Trump 2024: 3 Million Dead Americans Can't Be Wrong

That K9 graphic is the happiest the NYT has made me since hiring one of my friends

Here's how I roughly think about the map. If Biden wins popular vote by...

3% or less: Trump probably wins AZ/PA, wins w/ 279+ EVs
4-7%: Biden flips AZ/MI/PA/WI/#NE02, wins 290 EVs
8-9%: adds some combo of FL/GA/NC/TX/#ME02, wins 305-389 EVs
10% or more: adds IA/OH, wins 413 EVs

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 2, 2020

can we stop fantasizing about giving Trump a post-Presidency job and continue fantasizing about trying him for treason

the best thing about this would be that he will likely have been convicted of several high financial crimes already, and be sitting his treason trial in orange scrubs with natural hair.

plus his debt will have come due so he might conduct his own defense to save money



wait holy wau @ K-9 graphic

Just a few baseball bets gone wrong, somebody will help cover it, I'm sure.

The November Surprise is Slim Shady.

https://youtu.be/5p3iMZBzW7M

But I think from a legal standpoint, it is correct that you judge standing first, and if you decide there's no standing, you don't reach the merits of the case.

I spoke too soon, sounds like Hanen totally decided to weigh in on why he'd stop election-day curbside voting if he thought GOP had standing to ask him to (BUT: my impression is that he in no way countenanced throwing out ALREADY CAST curbside votes which is the key point and was the place I was worried he would break out into full vote-stealing mode.)

it's a very strong sign that PA should be OK

Pennsylvania should be Oklahoma?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OQVi5Rvxu8

Needles are good. They are better than the running vote tally, which basically tells you nothing unless you pay attention to which precincts have reported, which is exactly what the needle is doing.

― Guayaquil (eephus!), Monday, November 2, 2020 3:29 PM (thirty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

otm. the needle makes it possible to ignore people tweeting about early returns in these states.

Queensryche said don't ever trust a needle, so sorry guys but i'm going w/ Tate

As the Drive-By Truckers sang, "have fun but stay clear of the needle."

my plan for Halloween this year was to go as the election needle but Covid ruined everything

kinda sucks actually that I can't go to the bar and get shitfaced tomorrow because god if Biden wins I'm gonna be as loud and obnoxious and all these assholes have been for the last 4 years. thanks Don

Tomorrow's going to be the first time in many years that I've actually voted on Election Day. The precinct I'm assigned to is in the basement of this public apartment tower.

Went to the secretary of state's website to confirm that's still the place, and all I got were the dozen "election centers" around the county being used for early voting. So I called the county clerk.

She told me I could go to the apartment tower. Or I could go to one of the dozen election centers. Or fuckit (my paraphrasing), I could just take my happy voting ass to any of the 150 regular precincts open tomorrow.

Do I want to go vote at the Methodist Church by my old apartment, for nostalgia's sake? No problem. Do I wanna see the inside of that creepy Masonic Lodge off of Geyer Springs Road? Here's my chance.

Basically, it's one precinct for every 1,200 voters – including all of those who have already voted.

If I wind up standing in in line tomorrow for more than ten minutes, I'm going to feel like an idiot.

I have voted at my daughter's school (two blocks away) for 14 years.

My wife voted early at the county courthouse, easily, a week or so ago.

I am choosing to vote on election day mainly for sentiment and tradition's sake, but also because I feared some chicanery/malarkey/shenanigans would intervene to exclude some votes.

My current plan is to go early - like 5:00 - and either there will already be a line or I will be the first in line.

239,822 African American voters over the age of 65 have already voted in Georgia. That's 124% of the total 2016 turnout for African American seniors.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 2, 2020

More Latino voters have already voted in Georgia (106,292) than voted in the entire 2016 election in the state (96,465).

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 2, 2020

Meanwhile, white non-college educated voters in Georgia lag behind their 2016 total vote by 439,513 votes.

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) November 2, 2020

I like that one

Do you have a sign for that one caek???

anybody vote naked

I voted wearing a jean jacket with a Fuck the Police burning cop car pin on it lol

All of those numbers are awesome, considering we live in era when elections are increasingly won by a few thousand, if not a few hundred, votes.

anybody vote naked

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Monday, November 2, 2020 9:47 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

✔️

Yeah, those Georgia numbers are extremely promising.

Has this been discussed?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-national-day-remembrance-americans-killed-illegal-aliens-2020/

should we?

no

One detail pops out that was probably the only real contribution Trump made to the text:

We solemnly stand with their families — our Angel Families — who have endured what no American family should ever have to suffer.

Wow, that's a desperate final push.

Do you have a sign for that one caek???

less than 24 hours til some of the polls close, imo it's okay to start feeling posi about some of these numbers without tapping the sign

Do you have a sign for that one caek???

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, November 2, 2020 4:46 PM (thirty minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

yes. the sign says "how much has the population of georgia grown since 2016, but yes probably ok to feel good about that one, especially bearing in mind georgia's record of fucking up election day with long lines".

The population of African American seniors in Georgia is unlikely to have grown significantly, at a guess, so that one feels pretty good

has the population of white non-college educated voters dropped by half a mil in georgia? surely not?

(that's to caek)

not that it matters (i am one vote in an overwhelmingly blue state going with the flow) but i'm planning to vote, as always, at the school across the street. They open at 6 so we're gonna get up mad early, vote and then try to avoid everything until i guess december?

President Donald Trump on Monday created a “1776 Commission” to promote "patriotic education” and counter lessons that he says divide Americans on race and slavery and teach students to “hate their own country."

"Patriotic education" sounds pretty darn sinister, but I'm sure he's aware of that.

has the population of white non-college educated voters dropped by half a mil in georgia? surely not?

No. But those folks will predominantly vote on E-Day. The point is that we now know for sure that turnout among Black and Hispanic voters in Georgia will smash that of 2016, and we don't yet know whether that'll be true for Trump's base.

I'm still trying to understand why we think they would prefer voting on election day vs early vote.

as noted here, many people enjoy the personal ritual or sense of security of lodging directly.

How many states have Kanye and other (libertarian, green, independent?) candidates on the ballot? It's definitely a shame that the endless attention void of the President has stopped us learning about and laughing at whatever mutant replaced Gary Johnson after the party rejected him for thinking seatbelts were okay.

has the population of white non-college educated voters dropped by half a mil in georgia? surely not?

― Li'l Brexit (Tracer Hand), Monday, November 2, 2020 5:30 PM (twenty-five minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

i'm being obtuse at this point.

(but i still maintain that there's no way to know if good news like that is good _enough_ in a close election)

no i’m calling it

thank god the election is over. are you all as relieved as i am right now?

from the needle page:

Here’s an easy way to think about it:

If Joe Biden wins even one of these states, he is a solid favorite to win the presidency. If President Trump wins all three, both candidates have realistic paths to the presidency.

many people enjoy

(legitimately so! I've voted early for convenience sake around work {eg working at the polls} or travel, and voted in person despite inconvenience because it's irrationally satisfying to do so. it's not implausible that less-educated voters are more likely to also stick to on-day voting out of familiarity or resentment/mistrust of change.)

The only time I voted in person on election day was 2008 and I got frisked by McCain’s secret service detail just after (my office was on the same block as his phx residence)

Voted for Nader on Election Day 2000 and got to use a marker to fill in an arrow, the last time I got to physically select my candidates.

I voted for Nader too. Highly regret it

I voted for a Fart this year

re: needle anxiety cause by data viz dorks

remember how much PTSD was the needle jitter code was causing on NYTimes/TheUpshot coverage 4 years ago lol:

Looking for trends in @nytimes's presidential forecast needle? Don't look too hard - the bounce is random jitter from your PC, not live data pic.twitter.com/pwcV6epee7

— Alp Toker (@atoker) November 9, 2016

Ahhhh YMP I will love you forever for the Dar Williams shout out.

Although I feel like the version of that song that I saw live might have had another verse about how Western NY sometimes also wanted to be California? Or did I make that up?

xxxp Gore lost Texas by 15-20% so that was my first experience with people pretending the Electoral College doesn't exist and that a vote for Nader was a vote for Bush.

Also now that I live in the Hudson Valley that song is so much more hilarious than I understood in 1997.

"Voting is the most punk thing you can do. They want us to be apathetic." --John Gourley from Portugal the Man pic.twitter.com/kX96WBSMxc

— Andrea Chalupa 🇺🇲 (@AndreaChalupa) November 2, 2020

I did the Nader Trader thing in 2000, swapped w somebody in what state I can’t recall.

If I could have voted- I was 15- I would have voted for Nader. No qualms about that.

in orbit, thanks; best of all possible wishes to you

I voted in the state where Dubya won* by 537 votes, keep in mind

at what point did you start to regret your vote?

"My Pet Goat"

yeah I regret not voting for Gore (in Tennessee!!) in ‘00. I remember being p much uninterested in him, not yet sold on “The Left”/ Naderism, and harboring no real animus towards Bush. boy howdy did that change fucking fast.

Are we ready for whatever?

I'm ready. Let's get it over with

*should note I didn’t vote at all in ‘00, and wouldve definitely NOT voted for a christ-bitten dickhead for leader of the free world. was m/l checked out of politics at the time.

(lol but I did totally vote for Dole in ‘96 fml)

Is there a thread where we admit embarrassing things

Remember like a month ago when Bob Dole came out of his cave to whine about the media being unfair to Trump? Wild way to show proof of life.

Is there a thread where we admit embarrassing things

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal)

I voted for Bill Clinton in 1996.

who should you have voted for?

I like thinking that will has evolved from there to the left of me

who should you have voted for?

― Dan S, Monday, November 2, 2020

Tricky.

How about this for embarrassing: I honestly thought Kerry had a strong shot until like the night of. Didn’t do cable or horse race stuff; all I knew was that EVERYONE (except evangelicals) thinks this guy’s total fucking idiot, right? RIGHT!!? Like awful bullshit war aside, this guy is D-U-M-B. Making Dan Quayle look like a man of poise and scholarship kind of dumb.

Who’s dumb now.

(me, it’s me)

From 2000 until 2010, Joe Lieberman put in overtime making the world worse in every possible way - without even getting any higher office or Cabinet gig out of it.

i've never made an embarrassing political mistake!

i think it's worth remembering that sometimes we make mistakes in being too cynical, too. for example, i think quite a few people were wrong about texas this year and made a point of telling everyone that there was no chance and it was ridiculous to even think about

(I was thinking a couple of weeks ago that it would be good to have a bot post every 20 or so posts reminding us that we love each other and want the same outcome. Too late now, but it's worth keeping in mind that different people deal with this stuff differently, and that's bound to cause conflict)

bleep bloop

we love each other and want the same outcome

bloop bleep

I have voted for president twice, despite being eligible in five election cycles. One of those times I voted third party.

Excellent! x-post

i owned a Joey Lawrence cassingle

My first-ever presidential vote was cast for Perot. I'm not sure I could've even told you why I did that at the time.

my first vote was for Nader. had Gore won in 2000 I woulda probably voted for Kucinich in 2004.

now he's a Trump kook.

This one time, on the way to a music festival, I peed in a Snapple bottle and just left it by the roadside

xp kucinich is?
or nader?

either one seems weird!

xp there were dozens of pee bottles to keep yours company, YMP. as far as you could see

One time I was leaving a music festival, dying of thirst, and took a swig from what looked like a bottle of iced tea someone threw away

lol apparently Dave Chappelle’s in my neighborhood canvassing tonight

So, anyway Dave Chapelle is canvassing in Kirkwood right now. Hop on over to Edgewood & knock on my door! (I already voted tho) 💅

— Bee Nguyen 🐝 (@BeeForGeorgia) November 3, 2020

Yeah Kucinich became an anti-anti-Trumper

Xp Hadrian, karma is a circle

Also this thread becoming is a mess and I confess that I have contributed to the chaos

wet your whistle with this iced tea, it'll clean your clock

I peed in a Gatorade bottle.

sealed it

put it on the shelf

sold it

speaking for myself - i feel spun in a million directions right now. i tried to read this in-depth thing about florida from a bonafide "FL Expert", and it was just paragraphs and paragraphs about all the votes in so far, the winning maps for clinton, romney, trump, the chances of one thing flipping if another did not.

let's just get to the god damn thing!

and then knowing that that the real thing most likely won't be delivered on election night, or perhaps for some time afterward. i took wednesday off as a personal day. hopefully it's just full of celebrating

for sale.
gatorade bottle.
piss smell.

everybody's talking about the impending rioting, feel like people just want to will Civil War 2 into existence by repeatedly talking about it

there are a few business w/ big obnoxious Trump flags that I wouldn't mind seeing someone else set ablaze

xxp the outcome of the clinton/trump election was clear on election night, although late. I'm thinking this one will be too

i remember going to see dennis kucinich speak in 2004 and thinking he was so cool. but yeah, he did turn into a trump apologist, appeared on fox news to attack the "deep state," etc. even before that i remember him being suspiciously buddy-buddy with ron paul. (so was nader, iirc.)

it's funny how many left-ish figures from that era have just completely faded away -- remember cindy sheehan? (i googled her and found her current blog, where her top story is her podcast interview with another bush-era relic, ted rall.)

Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida are going to be counted relatively quickly, if Biden wins one of those then he’s gonna be a massive favorite, if he wins two it’s effectively over. If he doesn’t get any then it’s time to panic.

guessing they figured 'why bother', Nader didn't get his 5%, etc....

i love how years of fear of psychotic Republicans has turned us from mere election night spectators to election sabermetrics experts.

there are stats I'm reciting to friends that I hadn't even heard of 4 years ago now.

(not a snarky comment btw, just pointing out that I pay way more attention to this shit now than I ever did pre-2016 or even pre-2012)

me too

kinda wanna run outside shirtless playing Rudimentary Peni at midnight tomorrow

who should you have voted for?

― Dan S, Monday, November 2, 2020

Tricky.

― Patriotic Goiter (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), Tuesday, November 3, 2020 11:36 AM (fifty minutes ago)

You ticked the box for Tricky Kid /
You didn't, but you wish you did

I did love Tricky in 96

An entertaining/depressing thread:

#BREAKING Polls are set to open in 48 hours across the US as the authoritarian regime of Donald Trump attempts to consolidate its hold over the troubled, oil-rich, nuclear-armed, north American nation. Analysts are sceptical the election will end months of political violence.

— gathara (@gathara) November 1, 2020

I peed in a Gatorade bottle.

sealed it

put it on the shelf

sold it

The other day

I opened and drank it

They say I'm a sucker

xp that thread is relentless

omg MatthewK

Early vote now 98 million.

Wait am I the only one who voted libertarian in 2000 bc WEED?

lol Harry Browne?

one of my friends voted for him

I was a single issue voter

I almost voted Libertarian in 2004 because weed/any third party but caved and voted for Kerry.

really hope weed is legal everywhere soon as that can fade away

Count me as another Nader 2000 voter.

I know multiple Ron Paul dudes that are Bernie Bros now, so that's good

but scratch my head at I either want one thing or the exact opposite part of it

kinda wanna run outside shirtless playing Rudimentary Peni at midnight tomorrow

― Lover of Nixon (or LON for short) (Neanderthal), Monday, November 2, 2020 5:29 PM (fifty-seven minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

WHEN YOU ARE A MARTIAN CHURCH

Harry Browne! Pretty sure I’d moved past my brief dalliance w libertarianism by ‘00 but honestly if I had gone to the polls that year he might have been my ‘protest’ vote

My one regrettable vote was Ron Paul a month after my 18th birthday in 1988. He was the anti-drug war/anti-military intervention candidate. Since then straight Dem (only once in a state where it mattered), and no regrets.

I’ve def seen some RP > Bernie converts, but it feels like the bulk went straight up alt right? this may be distorted by ‘online’ though

I couldn't vote for Gore in '00 because the whole Tipper/PMRC saga -- in retrospect, that's probably the non-vote I regret the most, at least at the Presidential level.

Biden/Dems massively outspending Trump/GOP on ad spending on air in battleground states - both in the final week (first screen shot) and the election cycle as a whole (second screen shot), per CMAG numbers crunched by @DavidWright_7 pic.twitter.com/rPPYXvC2OT

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) November 3, 2020

A-B-C. A-Always, B-Be, C-Chooglin (will) at 8:36 2 Nov 20

I’ve def seen some RP > Bernie converts, but it feels like the bulk went straight up alt right? this may be distorted by ‘online’ though

yeah these guys are definitely not racist and good guys who weren't super knowledgeable but have that understanding that the system is broken and I guess in different ways RP and Bernie appealed to that

one is a white rapper

$0 in Texas!

weird that this also includes RNC + outside groups. you'd think someone would have wanted to reinforce a little there?

According to Wikipedia trump has not campaigned in Texas in 2020.

still gotta tip my hat to Paul at one of those really early GOP debates from ‘08 basically telling his whole party to fuck off w the Iraq war and getting scolded by the other candidates & booed by the audience.

then I found out about the Newsletters...

Every time I start to get confident I look at something on 538 and freak out. Now Nate Silver is saying if Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, then the election is basically a toss-up. I think he's got a pretty good chance of getting those three!

Best debate boos

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZITP93pqtdQ

Every time I start to get confident I look at something on 538 and freak out. Now Nate Silver is saying if Trump wins Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, then the election is basically a toss-up. I think he's got a pretty good chance of getting those three!