The shittest of bins - rolling the Global Economy back to the Stone Age

The other thread is getting way too long.

Yesterday, I had someone from the US ask me if I could help build a Chinese battery factory in Australia to get round the tariffs.

Globalizations is getting weird.

In case this new thread takes hold, the "other thread" is: Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

let's just do this and be legends

can mods please unlock the old thread

it was definitely time for a new shitbin thread

why? xp

that was a grand old thread and ed didnt even ask if anyone wanted a new one, rude

obvs they are intertwined, but was it deliberate to switch from a US economy thread to a Global one?

we are even being forced to downsize our threads ... things are not looking good

rip usa

i dont understand the logic of needing a new thread even its ok for seventeen years and however many posts but now its not

thread tariffs

good luck USA

it's over

line go down

Rally in US stocks evaporates as White House doubles down on tariffs on China

i'm more concerned that threads about american economics are being outsourced to australia. also, are we allowed to talk about the "US economy" or is that not inclusive enough for the woke ilx message board?

can mods lock this thread i made a new one Rolling US Economy Into The Shitbin Thread

stop being a baby

US econ talk goes here now: Freedom

stop being a baby

― budo jeru, Tuesday, April 8, 2025 3:22 PM (twenty seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

what a charming young man

lol rob

a politics thread by any other name still sucks ass

we are even being forced to downsize our threads ...

Reportedly DOGE operatives have entered the 77 borad

oh no, do they have access to the voting rolls from all of our polls?

a politics thread by any other name still sucks ass

― glum mum (map), Tuesday, April 8, 2025 3:27 PM (two minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

lol true

taytayfan is gonna have a lot to answer for xp

i like the old one because shitbin is such a great word

(Fred Schneider voice)

Down, down, down…

i like the old one because shitbin is such a great word

― a (waterface), Tuesday, April 8, 2025 3:34 PM (forty-seven seconds ago) bookmarkflaglink

seriously "The shittest of bins" absolute worst ilx jokey thread title voice

omg relax the title is fine, now you're just being an asshole!

dude can we not call each other assholes

We have a new thread for US
USA Economics - Protectionist Waste Management down 2%

pointless bitching about ilx thread titles is a long and outstanding tradition

here's an idea: don't tell me how to post

Not to be a dick, but non-US posters often complain about excess US content

someone needs a wittle nap and a baba

seriously "The shittest of bins" absolute worst ilx jokey thread title voice

― lag∞n, Tuesday, April 8, 2025 3:36 PM (five minutes ago)

oh I think we can do worse

shit bin ein auslander

youre right its not nearly the worst it actually a totally normal bad ilx thread title

someone needs a wittle nap and a baba

― a (waterface), Tuesday, April 8, 2025 3:40 PM (six minutes ago) bookmarkflaglink

seriously go out and find a hug bro

the shittiest of bins would have been better

lol thats what i thought it said

I’m totally fine with Ed starting this thread and WmC locking the old one, for whatever that’s worth

sad, its like the great recession meant nothing

tombot otm, the old one was for the 2008 USA crash, now we're taking it on a world tour baby

this thread will be even bigger and greater

we'll make so many posts, so many

stonks

kind of ironic b/c we have arguably not fully recovered from 2008 even now, yet here we are chopping our legs off

im going to post in the new usa economy thread when i see line go down, tho id prefer to post in the old one even if op has abandoned it

happy with this thread for global and non-US direct stuff tho ofc there will be overlap

Too much economics.

I see China haven't given Trump his phone call that's cold.

Reportedly DOGE operatives have entered the 77 borad

― I pity the foo fighter (Ye Mad Puffin)

every time someone says "borad" i think of "timelash"

honestly, it's preferable to thinking about politics or economics at this point

kind of ironic b/c we have arguably not fully recovered from 2008 even now, yet here we are chopping our legs off

― sleeve

say what you will about john ronald brown, at least he _used_ to be a licensed doctor

New threads a good idea, there is simply more economics happening these days.

the shittest of bins..? idgi

it means the worst bin, even worse than the shitbin, do keep up

bin is brit for freezer. it’s like how pants means sweater, and fanny means elbow.

a warning sign from a cave in Tora Bora: Laden, Bin Shitting

Typing Bond Market into chatgpt..

I kid I kid...just posting something off twitter. This finance guy (blue tick) is screaming at a graph.

Treasuries are getting fucking bulldozed in the Asia session right now.

4.35% on the 10Y right now.

Zero safe haven bid into bonds right now.

Zero. pic.twitter.com/U0M9O0mE1Q

— Spencer Hakimian (@SpencerHakimian) April 9, 2025

That’s a fairly big indicator the wrong line is going to go up.

There is a group of people who do think there is a path to the US 'winning' -- it just wasn't articulated well in the piece I linked in the other thread yesterday.

In this case its to lose less than China.

When people write that US is losing with tariffs they fail to undertstand the nature of the game the US is playing. It is playing a lose-lose game, but that game makes sense if the US thinks that China will lose more, and thus in relative sense US will be up. Absolute losses do…

— Branko Milanovic (@BrankoMilan) April 8, 2025

We might be seeing deals, but we may not. Here is the case of Vietnam: "It is not hard to understand why other Southeast Asian countries increasingly see Washington as a “landlord seeking rent”"

https://thediplomat.com/2025/04/trumps-tariffs-wont-change-the-trajectory-of-vietnams-foreign-policy/

However, China’s stock markets rose, appearing to weather the storm after government interventions. The SSE composite index in Shanghai ended the day 1.1% higher, while the Shenzhen SE composite rose 2.2%

I’m totally fine with Ed starting this thread and WmC locking the old one, for whatever that’s worth

― trm (tombotomod), Tuesday, April 8, 2025 2:53 PM (yesterday) bookmarkflaglink

Same, we’ve clearly crossed the economic rubicon this year

What would the Art Brut lead single version of these threads be titled though

Branko Milanovic writes more on what could this all lead to.

https://jacobin.com/2025/03/what-comes-after-globalization

China announces 84% tariffs on US in retaliation
China has announced new tariffs of 84% on the US, in a response to Donald Trump’s trade war that will raise fears of further escalation.

The Chinese ministry of finance said it will impose 84% tariffs on US goods from Thursday, up from the 34% previously announced, according to Reuters.

Stock markets sold off further in the wake of the announcement. More details to follow.

Bonds going down at the same time as stocks going down is a worrying sign. People are getting out of even the safe havens, either because they fear margin calls and need cash or they just want everything in cash anyway. We're moving into trussterfuck territory...

oof

https://bsky.app/profile/weisenthal.bsky.social/post/3lmf33ahfc22p

the shittest of bins..? idgi

― flopson, Wednesday, 9 April 2025 00:43 (thirteen hours ago) link

it means the worst bin, even worse than the shitbin, do keep up

― sleeve, Wednesday, 9 April 2025 00:44 (thirteen hours ago) link

bin is brit for freezer. it’s like how pants means sweater, and fanny means elbow.

― Theodor W. Adorbso (Hunt3r), Wednesday, 9 April 2025 01:57 (eleven hours ago) link

do Brits say that things are "shitty"? or just "shit"? part of why the thread title looks funny to me as an American is that we would say "shittiest."

i think there are levels of shit. my guess is

it's shit=the worst amount and level of shit
it's shitty=the medium amount of shit. not too bad, but still fairly awful
it's the shittest=it's bad but it could be worse

and then there's shite.

maybe it's shit is penultimate and the worst is it's fucking shit

do Brits say that things are "shitty"? or just "shit"?

just shit

what about shinola

can't tell the difference

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPj2uqCwS6s

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/09/politics/video/donald-trump-nrcc-president-dinner-tariff-negotiations-digvid

Not that I would normally give a flying fig what happens to them, but when do the non-Musk/Bezos/Zuck 1%ers turn on him for this?

The accompanying demolition of the state built since the New Deal is likely worth it to them, so never.

Well at least until they realize how much they need that regulatory infrastructure too.

People wrecking systems that have made them incredibly wealthy is quite a thing to see.

Tipsy, tipsy. You've seen cartoons, you know how physics works. When you are sawing through a tree branch that you yourself are on, you only fall if you notice.

See also: running off a cliff. You don't fall until you look down.

90 day pause. Trump's shat it.

not before sharting over all our pensions

i dont understand the logic of needing a new thread even its ok for seventeen years and however many posts but now its not

― lag∞n, Tuesday, April 8, 2025 3:18 PM (two days ago) bookmarkflaglink

because you can’t load a thread with 10k posts on a phone or a slower computer. on a busy thread that's walking into the middle of a movie.
on the old thread you can only see the answers going back 2 hours, ffs.

ime the only impossibly annoying long thread that takes forever to load is the NBA thread, because of its goofy starter photos . . . which is straight-up lag∞n's fault

take that u devil

xp
Bookmarks work. Once I discovered them I never looked back.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-vietnam-agree-launch-trade-deal-talks-tariffs-paused-2025-04-10/

Doesn't feel like this deal really even begins to make up for the deficit.

And this is a dispatch from Cambodia

https://cambodiaunfiltered.substack.com/p/trump-cambodia-tariffs-postponed

mfs out here loading the whole thread each time they open it

I like to read all the previous posts before catching up on the most recent.

because you can’t load a thread with 10k posts on a phone or a slower computer. on a busy thread that's walking into the middle of a movie.
on the old thread you can only see the answers going back 2 hours, ffs.

― doe on a hill (Deflatormouse), Thursday, 10 April 2025 bookmarkflaglink

You can set it to last 50 posts too. I know the latest revive was about 500 posts of screaming but I sometimes post in the US pol after not looking at it for a few days and I never feel I am missing that much. Same here, no point trying to understand bullshit like 'bond markets'.

Glad we established that the management of the American debt is not really relevant to discuss in April 2025. Next they'll bore us with interest rates again.

Thanks for that Cambodia sub stack, xyz. Moving there in a few months

No worries (all found via twitter: the everything app)

And when I mean everything I mean everything.

crazy that the Chinese foreign ministry would post this pic.twitter.com/7kgFd86afX

— Andrew Fogle (@andfogle) April 9, 2025

every day I'm more and more convinced that Dean Pelton is in charge of America now

neando!

Yes welcome back dude

yeah!

hey everyone!

enjoying all this winning?!

More winning than any of us ever could’ve dreamed of

Now China have raised their tariffs on US good to 125%. Getting silly now.

when I look at, on the one hand, China, and on the other hand, the United States of America, and i try to work out which country's 1) people 2) government are more prepared to endure a war of economic attrition that will require some combination of hardship and long-term planning, hmmm i just can't figure out who will have the upper hand in this situation

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/11/macron-speaks-of-90-days-of-uncertainty-as-trump-tariffs-spark-further-losses

Liking these moves toward a EU-China partnership. Can't wait to take the London-Beijing trainline.

xp its not so much about pain. There are quite a few local level protests in China and the economy has suffered through the downturn of the world economy since covid, its property bust and it has v high youth unemployment.

Problem for the US is that there are still elections and from China and EU perspective they only have to wait 18 months till Republicans suffer.

Still, Tracer OTM.

lol @ tracer

the tariff back and forth just feels like a schoolyard exercise at this point.

"ok, well now it's 145% tariff"

"ok well we just put 155% on you"

"fine. 160"

"165 for you!"

"ok INFINITY tariffs"

"Infinity plus 1!"

"Infinity plus infinity"

"you can't do that"

the funny thing is 125% might as well be infinity so the game has stopped when it comes to tariff levels - but my impression is that china has quite a few other, idk call it DLC, measures still in the queue

Yeah, Adam Tooze says it's literally trade-stopping level. How long can we actually manage that? Seems insane.

the funny thing is 125% might as well be infinity

That's what Beijing said today, they're not gonna hike 'em any higher regardless of what Trump does.. the tariffs have pushed ANY U.S. goods out of reach

They should keep the stock market open today for a special session

Yes, it's a shame the entertainment stops at the weekend.

Vietnam’s manufacturers have been hit with mass cancellations of already signed export contracts after Trump announced reciprocal tariffs. Officials in Binh Duong, one of VN manufacturing hubs, said in just 3 days (5-8 Apr) export contracts to US worth US$708m have been cancelled pic.twitter.com/fCu03Rjn6F

— Nga Pham (@ngahpham) April 12, 2025

And when I mean everything I mean everything.

― xyzzzz__, Thursday, April 10, 2025 5:35 AM (two days ago)

not gonna say that's not hot, but i'm more into soft doms

also a good reminder of how much of this shit is fucking idiot patriarchy. dude in the "beg for it bitch" video is even _manspreading_.

Some detail around Xi's "Fortress China" program to become more self-sufficient

https://archive.is/YFzOG

Basically: work in progress

(Thanks)

A number of people are now quite vested in the idea that China has steeled itself up against a new trade war with the US -- and it no doubt is true in a legal sense (as China has new retaliation tools).

But dependence on external demand is still China's achilles heel

8/ pic.twitter.com/LsyG0szm2U

— Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) April 14, 2025

Like if this were a game for global empire—which it is def not, right?—i’d guess china could wait a little for more internal usa disruption, then act/collude to really sink the dollar (they recently met w usual adversaries and huge bondholders japan and sk), then give assurances to sk and japan, and then while usa flounders take taiwan.

they might temporarily kill that usa market but the rest of the world might line up, and everyone would have to put up with a momentarily smaller global economy-pie.

It’s not in China’s interest for the US to go belly-up

No, but China has enough leverage to choose how much pain to inflict on the USA and where.

https://scontent-lhr8-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/489996619_10232171449342833_6321872794130099818_n.jpg?_nc_cat=101&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=aa7b47&_nc_ohc=5M7N6UJdAj0Q7kNvwGiAfqG&_nc_oc=AdnVuZ5KUNK8NBhxKghmgPLORuZFaClH5N3x-Qg6MhFAp6Zk_AjA6ATkDbS8ZZCFWO7SAz29-krl_6qt95VWXLXS&_nc_zt=23&_nc_ht=scontent-lhr8-2.xx&_nc_gid=ugi4JT8RQfN0Z9ym7uOs3Q&oh=00_AfHZWW3dEli9Yf9khLoaTUBv3rbhtRd7M2Aee8IvKhyC3g&oe=6803E41E

China halting all Boeing orders https://t.co/z2EhUDmptZ

— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) April 15, 2025

lol get fucked boeing

when even my partner a super non-conspiracy person is going “wait has boeing been assassinating its critics?” i’m pretty sure their reputation is over.

Art of the deal.

china and vietnam sign 45 cooperation agreement deals today in the face of trump’s tariffs pic.twitter.com/h6nvPIgoli

— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) April 14, 2025

Does China sell treasury bills?
I want in on this economic juggernaut

Hong Kong suspends postal service to the US after Trump's tariff hikes https://t.co/1yVHsxgPFD

— CNN (@CNN) April 16, 2025

The Art of the Deal.

The Japanese trade delegation came to meet in good faith with Trump’s economic team and after a while, they realized that Trump’s team didn’t know what they wanted and lacked any authority to reach a deal. So they just left.

That’s where we are in our tariff negotiations. 🫠 pic.twitter.com/9J5CZaSVxY

— Turnbull (@cturnbull1968) April 20, 2025

https://archive.ph/apDcr

I think some of the reasoning in the piece doesn't quite scan though I like it how it says US only have paper while China have actual critical goods.

China can scale back production but that would surely mean job losses and social stresses that would need to be mitigated, which is on top of past stresses to its economy (property bust).

For me the advantage is that the Trump admin are all over the place, its highly unstable governance and so China and other impacted countries could see it out.

Basically: US have elections. China do not.

Interesting thread on China's economy, their real state crash and future fallout.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1928344817710313900.html

Prices around here definitely, noticeably on the rise. The coffee beans I sometimes pick up at Aldi went from close to $6 to close to $8. The beans I used to get at the local co-op went from $9.99 to $11.99. Had a friend just tell me the big bag of beans they would get at Costco went up even more dramatically. She also told me at the regular supermarket they saw them repricing basically the entirety of the liquor section. I can only assume similar things are afoot in every sector.

But the sign said Trump= Low prices

Sign, sign, everywhere a sign

my pres election management strat is so different now

campaign i mean

oh that's right we bosom manor'd the new thread title.

a line of shittier bins grows nearer on the horizon

Most countries have stopped shipping packages to the US because of the removal of the "de minimis" customs exemption.

This AP article from Saturday lists a bunch of countries, but there are many more, including India and Japan as of today.

The end of an exemption on tariff duties for low-value packages coming into the United States is causing multiple international postal services to pause shipping as they await more clarity on the rule.

The exemption, known as the “ de minimis” exemption, allows packages worth less than $800 to come into the U.S. duty free. A total of 1.36 billion packages were sent in 2024 under this exemption, for goods worth $64.6 billion, according to data from the U.S. Customs and Border Patrol Agency.

It is set to expire on Friday. On Saturday, postal services around Europe announced that they are suspending the shipment of many packages to the United States amid confusion over new import duties.

Postal services in Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Italy said they will stop shipping most merchandise to the U.S. effective immediately. France and Austria will follow on Monday.

The U.K.'s Royal Mail said it would halt shipments to the U.S. on Tuesday to allow time for those packages to arrive before duties kick in. Items originating in the United Kingdom worth over $100 — including gifts to friends and family — will incur a 10% duty, it said.

Does this mean the USA is... increasingly isolated?

And now the Governor of the Federal Reserve has been fired. Can't wait to see what Marco Rubio does with the job!

Australia's paused too (with exceptions for person to person gifts if under $100)