It's Nov. 3rd now, and we have no president: the second official election day thread

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i admit i'm clutching the final fibers of the straw here... but still.

x-posts

I forgot to mention that at this point, these other states are all actually CLOSER than Ohio.

It doesn't matter - if Bush wins Ohio he wins the whole thing.

I know, but I'm assuming that Ohio will be contested. The problem is if everyone focuses on Ohio's absentee and provisional ballots, Kerry still needs to pick up one other state. Will the Republicans complain that Wisconsin, for example (which is leaning Kerry right now), was ultimately "too close to call" and demand a recount?

my bad.

If I heard CNN correctly a few minutes ago New Mexico has a Dem gov and senator who said they won't announce any victor until tommorrow.

Montana now has a Democratic governor
Vermont now has a Republican governor

But Daschle's loss is supposed to be the "most humiliating." Since there is no Dem leader and he counted as "three senatorial seats," according to commentator. Or whatever...

I meant the election, but I guess, more than that.

This is fucking obscene.

we wont know who officially won this thing for a few weeks i am sure.

Also, if I may be so annoying, I'd like to recall my much hated AOL straw-poll that I cut-n-pasted here, as a foil to the projected ILX euphoria re: a "landslide" Kerry victory, etc. California inaccurately went red in that one, but otherwise it wasn't too-too off the mark... Yeah I think both "smart" and "stupid" people can simultaneously be wrong, in response to the final question that was posed to me on that thread, where you were trying to parse my logic. Logic, which was quite absent on those AOHell boards, and re-reading and -re-reading them over the past few months would appropriately keep my optimism in check, and now I don't regret all that time wasted or else I'd be utterly crushed and despairing tonight, as I was that December nights four years ago (when the SCOTUS gavel came down). Thank you AOHell boards! :( : ( :(

New Mexico was momentarily "green" according to CNN - and 11,000 votes down for Kerry - but is now not being put in the "too close to call category." There are 20,000 provisional ballots STILL to be counted there, according to Judy.

And no Bush speech yet!!!

As CNN just said, "we don't even know how many provisional ballots there are."

the magic number is 270
kerry has 252
bush has 254
ohio is worth 20

you do the math.

xpost

But it's quite unlikely.

BUT - just in from CNN: Bu$h is NOT going to declare "victory" this morning; is waiting for "more clarity" and etc. Take that, jubilant Reagan-building crowd. You stayed up for shit!!!

Ick Thune is now on TV. He looks like an "Aryan" (Nazi-co-opted definition) DROID, face all robotic and plaster-like.

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So how far is Kerry projected to be behind in Ohio, pre-provisional and absentee ballots? There are what, between 100000 and 250000 of those., hopefully with a fairly good Kerry majority.

-- Julio Desouza (juli...)

It will take a bit longer than that, I hope to say, since the (Repub) Sec' of State said they might not be counted until "the afternoon."

And then there's an extremely slim chance of a RECOUNT, if the Dems want to go litigate and shit (and they should - see my post from about 2 hours ago).

many xposts

Edwards said he's gonna waiting a day is no prob but I guess you've all seen it.

x-post Bush is ahead on the pop vote isn't he? 54 million to 51 (as I recall).

but still i favor it because the electoral college trivializes votes in many states because of the state's overall political lean. the E.C. was also initially put into place because the government didnt trust the common people to choose the right candidate, its wonderful democracy we have here in america.

i just want every vote to really count.

its an out-dated system that the government doesnt want to change, and not enough people feel passionately about it to make a protest to make the government care about.

also regarding ohio - I don't know what areas are still waiting to be counted, or if certain sections of that state vote one way or another so we'll have to wait.

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http://www.boundless.org/2000/features/a0000353.html

The Framers of our Constitution were not stupid. They created the Electoral College for a reason, and this year’s election — far from discrediting the electoral system — demonstrates its genius.

Writing to promote the freshly-drafted Constitution in 1787, Alexander Hamilton explained the Electoral College. "The people of each State," he wrote in The Federalist Number 68, "shall choose a number of persons as electors, equal to the number of senators and representatives of such State in the national government who shall assemble within the State, and vote for some fit person as President."

That the power of electing the president was given to the states, not the people as a whole, was crucial for ratifying the Constitution. In the early republic, the sovereign states were not about to cede their authority to a distant, centralized government that had only its own interests — not those of the individual states — in mind.

That’s also why we have a Senate, not just a House of Representatives. Each state’s representation in the House is determined by its population, but every state, however large or small, has two senators. The Founders intended the Senate to balance the House and protect the interests of the states. Because each state has as many members of the Electoral College as it has representatives and senators together, lower-population states are given a greater say in the electoral process than they would have in a popular vote.

In short, the Electoral College protects the interests of the states against the power of the federal government. How did this play out in Election 2000?

Why was the system chosen?

When the United States was founded, a national campaign was almost impossible given the communications; states were jealous of their rights; political parties were suspect and the popular vote somewhat feared.

The framers of the Constitution in 1787 rejected both the election of the president by Congress - because of the separation of powers - and election by direct popular vote, on the grounds that people would vote for their local candidate and the big states would dominate.

Another factor was that Southern states favoured the College system. Slaves had no votes but counted as three-fifths of a person for computing the size of a state's population ...

...

So what are the advantages?

The Electoral College system is respected for its historical roots and because it does usually reflect the popular vote. It also gives greater weight to smaller states - one of the checks and balances the US Constitution values.

For example, the largest state, California, has 12.03% of the US population but its 55 Electoral College votes represent only 10.22% of the College total. Wyoming, a sparsely populated state, has 0.18% of the US population but its three seats in the Electoral College give it 0.56% of the College votes.

The College system also means that a candidate needs to get a spread of votes from across the country.

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provisional votes are votes made on election day by people who were not on the lists at the polling place that they voted. these votes first need to be researched to see if they are in fact legitimate votes. if they are not legitimate (if the person was not in fact registered at the specific polling place that they placed their vote, it will be thrown out... or if the person was not registered at all) the vote will be thrown out. the rest will be counted and added to the overall popular vote in ohio.

the absentee ballots will not be counted until november 10th because states allow a week after election day for votes to come in for purely postal service issues. these will have to be closely inspected as well to make sure they are valid.

also, a small number of votes need to be counted because of obscenely long lines at polling places, but this is a very very small number.

in response to alba, the electoral college in the earliest days could potentially discount the popular vote and vote however they wanted.

The College system also means that a candidate needs to get a spread of votes from across the country.

I don't really see that this follows.

-- ken c (pykachu10...)

They didn't know it was just Ohio that mattered until 25 minutes or so ago.

Andy Card: "Pres Bush has won the state of Ohio" - declaring technical victory before it's happened, all Rove Playbook 101. Well Manipulative PR 101, really.

Anyone know how many absentee ballots, though?

Provisional ballots can be assumed to be very strongly Kerry, but some may be rejected.

It just doesn't look like there's enough to overturn the 150000 or so majority that Bush currently has.

There may be as many as 200,000 prov ballots.

I thought the absentee ballots from Ohio were already counted, and it was the Iowan ones that were coming in after 11 days? Regardless, it's only going to be more good news for Bush, since most of the absentee ballots from overseas are going to be from military bases which are disproportinately GOP.

i know that florida allows a week for absentee ballots to come in... and there are a projected 1,000,000 absentee ballots so i hear

ohio has the 10 day grace period for the absentee votes to come in as well, so god knows what's going to happen with that or if they'll even be counted.

lauren, there are a ton of military bases in florida, that number probably is exaggerated, but the number is still quite big.

in other news, i am going to bed.

Maybe it won't be as bad as all that. Maybe God will stop sending messages to Bush to invade countries. Maybe there won't be 100 000 more deaths somewhere else. Maybe if Kerry had squeezed in, Congress would have made his life so difficult that people would be put off voting Democrat for another decade. I dunno.

But Mr Bush is delaying a formal victory claim to give Senator John Kerry "time to reflect" on the results, chief of staff Andy Card said.

What does that even mean?

won BY 286 electoral votes??!!

They didn't know it was just Ohio that mattered until 25 minutes or so ago.

oh i know.. but i mean are they still bothering to count in the other states?

i like that carey thinks new england/the north east should secede
i like that dee voted democrat
i agree with N. about the electoral college

that's about it. i am not happy. time for 6 hours of san andreas i think...

That's...that's not *hari-kiri*.

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oh yeah haha i get my japanese words mixed up often.

http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/ID/

NINETY NINE PERCENT!!??!??!?!!

is crapo (pfffffft) running against TROY mcclure or something?

http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/AK/
(scroll down)

I'm turning into a zombie, but I really can't stop devouring the news... as I sit here enduring indescribably changeable levels of disbelief, as different networks (like N!B!C!) keep rationalizing their decision to hand Ohio to Bush when a potential 200,000 prov ballots have yet to be counted.

FOX, I can "understand", but .....ARGH

dream come true?
http://www.nukewinter.com/screenshots/PC/rocket-small.jpg

But as for a) and b): probably no, and definitely no. But you still gotta count 'em, or else democracy is yet another American cultural myth, like, I dunno, the efficacy of dieting or something.

this assumes that there's even a Washington, DC during the next four years

historically, how many provisional ballots tend to be legitimate? does it vary too much to call?

No uncertainty on Wall St.

Despite lack of clear resolution in presidential election, investors likely to see clean Bush win.
November 3, 2004: 7:29 AM EST
By Chris Isidore, CNN/Money senior writer

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The Democrats and some media might not be able to call the presidential election. But investors appeared poised to declare President Bush a winner early Wednesday.

Overnight U.S. stock futures, which can indicate the market direction at the open, rose sharply as Bush appeared to be close to winning Ohio's 20 electoral votes, which would put him above the 270 needed for victory. However, CNN was among networks that declined to declare a winner in Ohio.

The futures slipped off their highs when it became clear that Democratic challenger John Kerry wasn't prepared to concede defeat. White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card declared victory for President Bush, telling a rally in Washington that Bush's margin in Ohio was insurmountable. But the president himself declined to address his supporters without a Kerry concession.

But unlike four years ago, when stocks fell during six weeks of election disputes in Florida, the uncertainty in this year's election is seen lasting only days or maybe even hours, said market analysts.

"No one wants to concede right away because of what happened before, but I think it (the market) is going to charge ahead like this is a clear Bush win," said Michael Carty, stock market strategist, New Millennium Advisors.

The results from Ohio might not be known for almost two weeks, and Iowa and New Mexico were also in doubt early Wednesday. Democrats were not discussing details of their plans in those states, other than a vow by Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate John Edwards to fight to count every vote.

But it seemed clear Wednesday that Bush would win a majority of the popular vote, the first candidate to do so since 1988, and his margin in Ohio was being talked about as insurmountable.

"The Red Sox won four games in a row after being down three nothing, so anything is possible,but I think the markets would perceive this as a long shot," said political economist Greg Valliere, chief strategist of Charles Schwab Washington Research. "I think at some point today (Wednesday) Kerry and his people get together and decide they don't want to be perceived as sore losers."

Valliere said that one of the keys for the market reaction is the gains by Republicans in Congress, especially being poised to see their Senate majority rise to 55 out of 100 members. That's a bigger and more pleasant surprise to the market than the Bush victory, said Valliere.

"The markets wanted to be assured the 15 percent dividend tax rate and the 15 percent capital gains tax would be maintained. Now, no question about it," he said.
More tax cuts? Maybe not

But Valliere said even with the Republican gains, it's too soon to predict a new round of tax cuts.

"I think there's a lot of Republicans who might not be compliant on any further tax cuts," he said. "The bigger issue is we won't undo past cuts."

Valliere and Carty also don't think the Republicans have gained enough strength in the Senate to bring about even partial privatization of Social Security, which would also be a boon for the financial sector stocks. But both think those stocks will be among the leaders in the Bush re-election rally, simply because the outcome of the election is less uncertain than it was four years ago.

"Markets tend to be very uneasy during the election year," said Carty. "One of the problems is that no one wanted to make a big commitment without knowing who was going to be at the helm."

Oil prices have been one factor weighing on U.S. equity markets in recent months, and oil prices jumped higher as Bush's victory became more likely overnight. U.S. crude futures rose 66 cents to $50.28 a barrel in electronic trading, while Brent crude gained 69 cents to $47.24.

"I think oil is up because all the things that have been in place are still in place," said oil analyst Peter Beutel, president of Cameron Hanover. "The feeling was that Kerry might have tried to stop the restocking the strategic petroleum reserve, and might have sold off reserves if oil got above $50."

"The election means we'll continue to keep buying oil for the SPR," he added. "It also means events in Iraq are likely to continue the way they have."

The Republican gains in the Senate could make it more likely that the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska could be opened for oil exploration. But Beutel said that would only be a long-term addition to the supply of oil and is not likely to affect current futures trading.  

Wall Street seems to be happy

Wall Street just wanted a clear winner. And it appears that they'll get one.

Later ya'll - it hasn't been fun, and I'd never like to do this again. Thanks.

Gabbneb is right, Wall Street would (or will be) have been fine with Kerry as a winner, because there is no way he was (or is) going to raise taxes for the next two years with the increased strength of the Republican Congress.

"opened up for drilling"

"conservative judges"

"Thank god we won't have Terry MacAuliffe to kick around anymore."

Overturn of Roe
Draft in some form or another other
No real health plan, but perhaps the ones that get drafted will get some medical benes
Increase in environmental crises, increased loss of species
Foreign debt currency crisis
False claims of impending bankruptcy of Social Security resulting in its diminishment or recission
State religion formalized
Ever-widening wealth gap
Patriot Act all up their sphincters
The general hostility of the community of the world

Oh yeaaah. Jesus arrives. YAY!

Don't worry. I have been up since Sunday. And it's 9:26 am and i just bought a magnum of wine. Because I am very upset and angry, and the wine tempers my desire to go out and do a Squeaky Fromme.

Has someone photoshopped him onto Gareth's body? Oh do say yes!!

I am not....for instance, going to kill myself. Nor am I going to act on any homicidal impulses towards the idiot in chief. However, the latter is not far from my mind. I have slept maybe three hours in two days. All election all the time.
Not that it's over, but it's over. Bush stole the election four years ago, but this time the people have spoken. I guess the rest of the country really wants a fundamentalist wing nut to continue his personal holy war.
I am going to get so drunk today. I wish i could go to the Comet.
100,000 Iraqi civilians have been killed - and we can't see the coffins of the 1'200 dead Americans who come home to be buried.
Wait a second - wasn't this war over, like, last year? Mission accomplished?
No, the mission was not accomplished. FUCK the mission.
FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK.
There was, in my heart, a brief feeling of hope - that we, America, could remove the idiot from office and try to regain some credibility in the world.
I think the whole world should be able to vote in a referendum - just so Americans see how much the rest of the world relies on us.
Life goes on. Everyone is going to wake up and go to work - IF they have a job - and try to do the right thing.
But everyone knows there is a wrong thing at work. A president who cares nothing for his basic constituents. A president who wants to polarize poor people against rich people. A president who is determined to ruin what natural environment we have left. A president who thinks God has given him the right to unilaterally invade countries. A president who thinks Christianity can replace every New Deal policy that FDR created.
A president who states, publicly, that he might not be so bright, but God has anointed him to run a country that USED to be a democracy.
I'm too broke to run away. I guess I'm going to have to fight.
This is, possibly, the worst day of my life. At least when i was raped it was just me - not the whole country and the rest of the world. That sucked, but this sucks more.
I feel like knocking on doors and confronting people and I feel like kicking random objects and i feel like screaming.
"People have the power.." yeah, whatever.
I have been scared, for three years, to even state my opinions because i don't want to offend anyone, and, y'know, you never know who's listening. This administration has made it possible for library book choices to fall under government scrutiny. I'm sure Katie has an opinion about this - and i would love to hear it. Librarians are the new radicals - they proudly display banned books and encourage people to read them. Y'know, like "Catcher In The Rye", "Beloved", Invisible Man" etc.
Subversive literature!
I am so upset and angry and miserable right now. If I were with you and, say,Jessie, you would encourage me to take a walk, do something nice for myself, take care of myself...and I would do exactly what i am going to do.
Which is anticipate the moment when i can purchase some booze. That's not neccesarily my instinct these days, but it is today. So call me. I am very upset and angry love, Alison PS say hi to Bill

(Ha, I sound kind of pompous - that's what politics does to some people I guess.)

ha xpost

Kerry 67-33 Bush.

i thought that poster was suggesting that Optimus Prime is just a warmongering hypocrite just like Bush (which is true)

I should note that after that it has to go to the states. Now that might not be cause for celebration either.

I feel like I'm pounding on a big door
No one can hear me knocking
I feel like I'm falling flat to the floor
No one can catch me from falling
The hourglass has no more grains of sand
My watch has stopped no more turning hands
The crew have abandoned ship
The lights are on but no one is in
Take it to the bridge
Throw it overboard
See if it can swim
Back up to the shore
No one's in the house
Everyone is out
All the lights are on
And the blinds are down

I feel like I'm calling on a telephone
No one can hear the ringing
I feel like I'm running up a steep hill
No one can stop me from running
The hourglass has no more grains of sand
My watch has stopped no more turning hands
The little hand shakes its fist
The face is hanging out on a spring

The hourglass has no more grains of sand
Little red grains of sand
My watch has stopped no more turning hands
Little green neon hands

This is the only thing that has made me smile today. Thanks, everyone, for letting me rant. It's nice to know I can share.
I was hoping we could talk about something else for the next four years, but at least we have fodder for our threads. That's my only hopeful thought today. The wine and cigaretttes are calling...

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