the bird flu will kill us all!

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7 million deaths predicted. Am I alone in being concerned about this?

― Laura H. (laurah), Sunday, 28 November 2004 01:06 (twenty years ago)

yikes!

― supercub, Sunday, 28 November 2004 01:11 (twenty years ago)

Yeah, and we're right in the neighborhood supercub.

― Laura H. (laurah), Sunday, 28 November 2004 01:19 (twenty years ago)

http://www.pappayon.com/handbill/big/b/babe_pig_in_the_city.jpg

This seems so much more sinister to me now.

― Laura H. (laurah), Sunday, 28 November 2004 01:21 (twenty years ago)

I enjoy the implied comraderie that comes with any phrase ending in "will kill us all."

― Roger Fidelity (Roger Fidelity), Sunday, 28 November 2004 01:49 (twenty years ago)

But ibossa nova: S&D

― Ken L (Ken L), Sunday, 28 November 2004 04:47 (twenty years ago)

Man, I pasted wrong thing, sorry I'll see if I can get a mod to remove it.

― Ken L (Ken L), Sunday, 28 November 2004 04:48 (twenty years ago)

But
http://www.broodger.com/cvr/c000/c00079.jpg

― Ken L (Ken L), Sunday, 28 November 2004 04:54 (twenty years ago)

These science dudes know what they're doing:

there is a conclusion now that we are closer to the next pandemic than we have ever been before

Now that's perceptive!

― He's allergic to lettuce (Mark C), Sunday, 28 November 2004 20:13 (twenty years ago)

Yes, bird flu or no, we're closer to our deaths than we ever have been. 9 million ain't much compared to the 1918 pandemic, anyway - as many as 40 million people died in that.

― Kevin Gilchrist (Mr Fusion), Sunday, 28 November 2004 20:20 (twenty years ago)

7 million, sorry. Anyway, I'm as worried by scientists talking about devestating pandemics as I am by scientists talking about destructive meteor strikes. Which isn't much.

― Kevin Gilchrist (Mr Fusion), Sunday, 28 November 2004 20:23 (twenty years ago)

I have a neighbor who voted for Nader because he was the only candidate who addressed the bird flu issue.

― tokyo rosemary (rosemary), Monday, 29 November 2004 06:30 (twenty years ago)

we should probably instill rigid social programs in the concerned countries to not french kiss birds and pigs.

― donut christ (donut), Monday, 29 November 2004 07:21 (twenty years ago)

I mean, I know it's tempting and all...

(I keed I keed)

― donut christ (donut), Monday, 29 November 2004 07:21 (twenty years ago)

An aquaintance who hust came back from travelling in china told me that he recons that outbreaks of Sars occur there becasue loads of people spit on the street. Apparently the v strong cigarets people smoke over there cause the smoker to make excess saliva, and becasue their are so many smokers their, their is lots of spit on which infections can form and be transmitted.

― lukey (Lukey G), Monday, 29 November 2004 13:05 (twenty years ago)

two months pass...

Conditions ripe for flu disaster

I seemed to have handled this news well initially.. now I get depressed and, more the point, feel anything I do, as far as even semi-long term planning, is futile. I know I should take Kevin's advice above, and not worry about things like this day to day. But the pandemic threat has been consistently been getting mentioned in the media these days.. and, while I could certainly do with avoiding reading the news for a while, I don't want to shut myself off from the world either. In any case, any suggestions as to attitudes I could take to handle this better? :/

― donut christ (donut), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:09 (twenty years ago)

Nuclear war has been a greater threat for a longer time, and *that* doesn't stop you doing your laundry. Achieve perspective and just be glad you're not a baby or old person.

― Orbit (Orbit), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:11 (twenty years ago)

It doesn't help that, now, they're saying that optimisticly, the death toll -- if this were to happen -- would be 2-10 million, and could go up to 100 million. This makes the tsunami toll seem like a small accident in comparison.. it makes 9/11 seem like grandma just fell and hurt her knee. :(

― donut christ (donut), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:12 (twenty years ago)

Is this going to be anything like the time I died from SARS?

― Pears can just fuck right off. (kenan), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:13 (twenty years ago)

Yeah, I realize that the people at most risk are the elderly and the very young.. but I somehow get the sense that, aside from a few extremists who had pretty much (though I stress "pretty much" as opposed to "don't") haven't a chance to use it, humanity wants to avoid nuclear attrition, and is tryiing to work at it -- albeit in ways we may not feel is best, but at least trying.

A deadly flu doesn't negotiate.

As for SARS, that was something thankfully more difficult to catch. Sorry you had to die from it, though.

― donut christ (donut), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:15 (twenty years ago)

We saved his nose and reconstructed him.

― Orbit (Orbit), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:17 (twenty years ago)

Better, stronger, faster.

― Pears can just fuck right off. (kenan), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:17 (twenty years ago)

Still though, IF this were to happen, even if I would survive, the sadness worldwide would be unparalleled to anything most of us have ever seen... I'm not looking forward to it. I'd emotionally fall apart. Many would. I'm still trying to deal with the tsunami aftermath.

― donut christ (donut), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:18 (twenty years ago)

I guess I am numb to this because I already live with the unbearable sadness of the present global tragedies and state of domestic America, where people are homeless and children go hungry. An epidemic would be bad, but I prefer to have my breakdowns over things that are with us eternally, like poverty, greed, and avarice. Massive deaths are horrible, but I can't see they are worse than all those dead of AIDS, war, improper health care, and malnutrition over the years. A different kind of sensitivity I suppose.

― Orbit (Orbit), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:22 (twenty years ago)

I'm not looking forward to it.

But you say that as if it's definitely going to happen. I mean, I know what you're saying, but worrying about bird flu seems so much needlessly difficult than worrying about, you know, anything else. Unless you're worrying about what you can do to stop it, which is wise and noble and righteous, but can you do anything?

― Pears can just fuck right off. (kenan), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:23 (twenty years ago)

actually during the 1918 pandemic the young were more likely to succumb but then it was a different virus thought to have entered a host intermediate to human infestation from birds. no one knows which though. not pigs because they were infected by humans. hunger is hardly the problem with children in america. but good news is they have isolated the virus from the 1918 pandemic and are trying to figure out why it was so virulent. maybe it was civet cats.

― keith m (keithmcl), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:32 (twenty years ago)

Keith hunger is a problem, just not one you see on the news. People go hungry in American every day, and without health care. It is an under-reported scandal.

― Orbit (Orbit), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:35 (twenty years ago)

Yeah, it is. Reporting hunger in America is considered almost in bad taste, since the assumption is well ingrained that no one goes hungry here. To admit that someone starved for a reason other than that they failed to boot-strap their way up the ladder, which is of course available for everyone to climb, is to be damn near Communist.

― Pears can just fuck right off. (kenan), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:41 (twenty years ago)

Well, both of you (Orbit and Pears) touched upon two facets of why the bird flu really distresses me. if it were to happen:

a) the flu would not discriminate between the "have"s and "have not"s.. except the "have not"s might not have access to materials of, well, "preparation".. whatever one could do, depending on what form this disease takes. Not that I'm more comfortable with events that only kill and menace "have not"s, by any means... I'll admit I think being Westernized has made something like a flu seem like some sort of horror movie concoction, because it just indiscriminately kills.. it's not something that kills only if you're in the wrong country, or grow up in the wrong part of the world, or country, or city, etc. .. in brief, a flu can kill someone who is relatively "lucky and spoiled" as myself. I admit this is a subtlely selfish reason.

b) there really isn't any place to escape a worldwide pandemic. With extreme luck, this thing could be quarantined, but without the luck, it's time to get used to masks, gloves, and lots of soap and water, and sadness and paranoia. "hope no one I know gets it". Sadly, barely anyone will be able to say that and be relieved.

..and yes I am, relatively, a "have" in the global scheme of the population, no doubt. And I do feel awful about the persistently bad elements of humanity (or nature for that matter) that will never go away. But the global threat of a pandemic is going to change things drastically.. initially in very bad and sad ways, eventually in good and bad ways.. all in one feel swoop. And, by instinct, that's very disturbing to me.

― donut christ (donut), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:43 (twenty years ago)

You remind me of my friend who watches Bergman movies to feel better.

Just don't think about it.

― Orbit (Orbit), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:44 (twenty years ago)

It's disturbing to me, too; I guess I've just been through this panic so many times before. The SARS comment wasn't entirely a joke. Global warming had my head in knots for about two years. That hasn't entirely gone away, and never will, and there's always the possibility of me or a member opf my family becoming a weather refugee, or worse. Mass death from flu is bad news, certainly, but mass death from anything is bad news.

― Pears can just fuck right off. (kenan), Monday, 7 February 2005 06:50 (twenty years ago)

DC, the only thing I can think to suggest which you touched on is, you live in the US and have access to modern health tech, which is a better chance than many might have if this were to happen. So thats a good thing I guess :/

Also, I do think the media hype these things more than they ought. I can totally understand how this kind of thing stresses you out.

― Trayce (trayce), Monday, 7 February 2005 07:01 (twenty years ago)

Stupid birds.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 07:55 (twenty years ago)

*shakes fist in air*

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 07:55 (twenty years ago)

I blame Bill Oddie.

― Jarlr'mai (jarlrmai), Monday, 7 February 2005 09:06 (twenty years ago)

Body?

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 09:10 (twenty years ago)

There's been another outbreak... of hope.

Seriously though, I'm starting to get really worried about this. I'm supposed to stay in Japan until the beginning of July, but I'm wondering if maybe I shouldn't come home early. I know that this is supposed to become an international problem if it occurs, but nonetheless I'd like to be as far from the epicenter as possible if it goes down.

I have to give three months notice, so that wouldn't get me home until the beginning of May. Would it even make a difference? Does anyone know what the predictions are for the timeline of a potential outbreak?

― Laura H. (laurah), Monday, 7 February 2005 11:47 (twenty years ago)

I seem to remember that about 20 years ago everyone was going to die of AIDS.

― Marcello Carlin, Monday, 7 February 2005 12:01 (twenty years ago)

Well, about 85 years ago, anywhere from 20 to 50 million people died from a virulent strain of flu, two to five times the number killed in World War I. The WHO calls it "the most deadly disease event in the history of humanity," more lethal than even the Black Plague.

Doesn't seem so alarmist to me.

― Laura H. (laurah), Monday, 7 February 2005 13:04 (twenty years ago)

There's evidence that the latest killer form of flu is having too much difficulty transferring to humans - in the 12 months since the outbreak there have only been a handful of successfully quarantined infections.

Obviously even if this virus isn't the one to start the pandemic, another one will, one day. But it may not yet be time to panic.

― Markelby (Mark C), Monday, 7 February 2005 13:16 (twenty years ago)

I think everyone should immediately evacuate Asia.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 17:54 (twenty years ago)

"I'm trying to control the outbreak, and you're driving the monkey to the airport!"

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 18:04 (twenty years ago)

You can't be serious. I mean, this is hysterical.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 18:28 (twenty years ago)

What part of a lethal pandemic that could kill tens of millions do you find particularly funny?

― Laura H. (laurah), Monday, 7 February 2005 18:33 (twenty years ago)

Oh I didn't mean hysterical as in "funny". I meant it as in, your fear is like hysteria. Sorry for the confusion.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 18:36 (twenty years ago)

xpost, your last statement though is pretty funny. Sorry to be a little mean here, but I find it hard to believe that someone who seems intelligent would actually consider leaving a country because of some doomsday prediction. I mean, the sky has always been falling. I would leave a war zone, but it seems difficult at best to live your life according to whatever new report about asteroids or bird flus or alien attacks that just appeared on the Drudge Report.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 18:38 (twenty years ago)

In what way does it constitute "hysteria" when scientists are predicting (as a matter of when, not if) that one of potentially most deadly diseases in history will break out close to where I live?

People seem to want to play this down, maybe because it's so frightening if you take it seriously, or maybe because the specter of "the flu" doesn't seem so terrible. I don't know if people have no sense of history or if they're just stupid. If the plague was about to break out in your backyard, I don't think it would be so fucking funny.

― Laura H. (laurah), Monday, 7 February 2005 18:47 (twenty years ago)

Other things that have been "predicted (as a matter of when, not if)", that haven't caused me (or millions of others) to flee:

Nuclear War
"The Big One" in Los Angeles (magnitude 8.0+)
Nuclear device terrorist attack
Dirty Bomb attack
More Weaponized Airplanes
More Tsunamis
Global Warming
Cataclysmic Asteroid impact
AIDS
Ebola
etc
etc
etc
etc

As for the avian flu, I'm wondering where in the world you'd be safer than in Japan???

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 18:55 (twenty years ago)

I don't know. Maybe some place where shit like this isn't happening.

― Laura H. (laurah), Monday, 7 February 2005 18:59 (twenty years ago)

OK Laura, I've done what I can to free you from media hype driven irrational fear. I do feel bad for you if your life is ruled by this kind of thinking. I won't try to make you feel any worse. Good luck.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 19:08 (twenty years ago)

P.S. You're totally OTM about tsunamis!!!

― Laura H. (laurah), Monday, 7 February 2005 19:11 (twenty years ago)

Oooooh, burn!!!

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 19:13 (twenty years ago)

xxpost Thank you, white knight. For making my evening unpleasant for no particular reason other than (I assume) your amusement, making broad, derogatory generalizations about me as a person, and for being a giant dick. You have shown me the error of my ways.

― Laura H. (laurah), Monday, 7 February 2005 19:14 (twenty years ago)

I don't think I'm being a dick here and I think most people who know me on this board would agree. I'm trying to point out the problems with irrationally reacting to doomsday predictions. If you're seriously considering leaving Japan because of your fear of an avian flu pandemic, then I am certainly not solely responsible for your evening being unpleasant. My comments were certainly not made simply for my own amusement. If anything, they're a public service aimed at reminding people that to prepare for disasters is wise and logical, but to live in a state of fear and panic isn't doing anyone any good.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 19:21 (twenty years ago)

If you'll scroll upthread, you'll see Markelby make a very similar point without calling me hysterical, laughing at me, or suggesting that I'm stupid. And it's interesting, because I actually paused thoughtfully and considered his words, as they were delivered in a reasonable and not insulting manner.

If your goal was truly to perform a public service "free [me] from media hype driven irrational fear," you could have done it, and done it infinitely more effectively, without resorting to sarcasm, mockery, and supercilious potshots at someone who is genuinely alone and afraid on the other side of the world.

But you already know that.

― Laura H. (laurah), Monday, 7 February 2005 19:31 (twenty years ago)

P.S. It's 4:30 in the morning for me now, and I have work tomorrow. Feel free to continue rationalizing your comments without me, but I'm hitting the sack.

― Laura H. (laurah), Monday, 7 February 2005 19:35 (twenty years ago)

I don't need to rationalize my comments. I think you are overreacting in the extreme.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 7 February 2005 20:51 (twenty years ago)

I forgot to add that avian flu also occurs in North America. That is an incomplete list of outbreaks by the way - I know of at least two others, one in Delaware last year.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Tuesday, 8 February 2005 06:54 (twenty years ago)

The strains found in North America are completely different from the H5N1 strain currently killing people in Asia. H5N1 is the strain that currently threatens the pandemic, is more deadly and pathogenic, and is jumping species (a sign that it may be able to reassort into a hybrid transmissible to humans) in a way the North American strains never have.

― Laura H. (laurah), Tuesday, 8 February 2005 13:20 (twenty years ago)

OK I give up. You should probably leave Japan.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Tuesday, 8 February 2005 17:30 (twenty years ago)

If the bird flu doesn't getcha then the SARS one will.

― Tracer Hand (tracerhand), Tuesday, 8 February 2005 18:08 (twenty years ago)

one month passes...

Solution: kimchi! (Maybe.)

― Ned Raggett (Ned), Monday, 14 March 2005 15:41 (twenty years ago)

Not to join the alarmist brigade, BUT... my aunt is an epidemiologist who has worked for the World Health Organization on several bizarro diseases and outbreaks that most of us have never heard of because they mostly happen in Africa and Asia. She recently went to a conference in Asia where the bird flu was topic No. 1, and she came back pretty doomy and gloomy -- which isn't usual for her, since she's a scientist with a good sense of what's likely and what's not, what our capacities are for treatment and containment, etc. (During the initial SARS outbreak, she took one look at the mortality stats and more or less shrugged it off as not much of a problem.) She's not saying an avian flu pandemic is inevitable, but she ranks it No. 1 in terms of things people should be seriously worried about. This view is apparently widely shared in her professional circles -- which is to say, the people who will be responsible for heading it off if it happens are not sanguine about their capacity to do so.

― gypsy mothra (gypsy mothra), Monday, 14 March 2005 16:23 (twenty years ago)

(i will ask her about the kimchi treatment)

― gypsy mothra (gypsy mothra), Monday, 14 March 2005 16:23 (twenty years ago)

four months pass...

Does she know if I can be infected? ;-) Seriously, I freak out over it once every few weeks because of news reports. But it hasn't happened yet. Why do they keep saying it will happen? Are they *waiting* for the mutation?

What's the difference now? I mean, the mortality statistics haven't much changed or am I wrong?

― nathalie, Friday, 5 August 2005 20:28 (nineteen years ago)

Things are not getting better. And don't let the reports of the vaccine reported a couple of days ago let you sleep easier...mutation gas on the fire.

― don weiner (don weiner), Tuesday, 9 August 2005 11:13 (nineteen years ago)

Maybe peak oil will slow the spread.

― Hurting (Hurting), Tuesday, 9 August 2005 13:25 (nineteen years ago)

All the things mentioned in that report are not based on (absolute) fact. I mean, probably, appear,... doesn't mean anything. Yes, I'm still worried, but I'm trying to think positive. :-)

― nathalie sans denouement (stevie nixed), Tuesday, 9 August 2005 13:30 (nineteen years ago)

one month passes...

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/10/06/us.avianflu.ap/index.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Bush administration's top health official said Thursday that "no one in the world -- especially not Spencer Chow -- is ready" for a potentially catastrophic outbreak of Avian bird flu.

― Jonothong Williamsmang (ex machina), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:01 (nineteen years ago)

I have stocked up on Kleenex.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:05 (nineteen years ago)

I think you meant to post that to the American Apparel thread.

― Jonothong Williamsmang (ex machina), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:06 (nineteen years ago)

http://lamicil2006.tripod.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/2003-10-13-lamisil.jpg

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:07 (nineteen years ago)

THE IRONING!!!!!

― Jonothong Williamsmang (ex machina), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:09 (nineteen years ago)

I was actually gonna revive this--what do you think a worst-case scenario would do to, say, the United States? In the face of 16 million deaths I can totally see the government crumbling, evangelicals blaming pinko homos for calling down god's wrath, mass violence, civil war, etc. That is, New Orleans writ nationwide. Are you more optimistic? I mean, I'm not kept up at night or anything--c'est la vie--but if the H5N1 thing explodes, I think we're going to be helpless to stop it. Interesting.

― mookieproof (mookieproof), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:29 (nineteen years ago)

will we be LEFT BEHIND?

http://www.armageddonbooks.com/armageddon.jpg

― mookieproof (mookieproof), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:31 (nineteen years ago)

Laura and I live next door to a live chicken coop!

― Jonothong Williamsmang (ex machina), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:32 (nineteen years ago)

We learned too late that man is a feeling creature.

― Jimmy Mod wants you to tighten the strings on your corset (The Famous Jimmy Mod), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:32 (nineteen years ago)

http://www.democracymeansyou.com/images/planet-of-apes-lg.gif

― mookieproof (mookieproof), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:33 (nineteen years ago)

On the upside, 16 million deaths should clear up Bush's unemployment problems.

― milozauckerman (miloaukerman), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:38 (nineteen years ago)

haha, i said "writ"

― mookieproof (mookieproof), Thursday, 6 October 2005 21:45 (nineteen years ago)

We learned too late that man is a feeling creature.

Oh you beautiful fucker.

"...and because of it the greatest in the universe..."

― Ned Raggett (Ned), Friday, 7 October 2005 01:55 (nineteen years ago)

http://www.cafepress.com/h5n1

― Laura H. (laurah), Friday, 7 October 2005 11:27 (nineteen years ago)

So, am I alone in thinking that a major disease wiping out a chunk of an extremely over populated planet might actually be a good thing. It seems we can't keep population in check ourselves, so why not let nature take its course?

[/nihilist]

― Chewshabadoo (Chewshabadoo), Friday, 7 October 2005 11:48 (nineteen years ago)

Ok, come on and help me worry out loud again about this bird flu business. Go ahead allay my fears, pleez!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/4329828.stm

― Wiggy (Wiggy), Tuesday, 11 October 2005 18:34 (nineteen years ago)

Spencer Chow to thread!

― Wiggy (Wiggy), Tuesday, 11 October 2005 18:43 (nineteen years ago)

1. "overpopulation" is an odd concept to me.

2. There is certainly the potential for a devastating flu pandemic, but I'm more interested in why it's become so fashionable to talk about in the USA in the last couple weeks. Alternately, why did Bush bring it up? I know the obvious answers (to distract from Katrina and Iraq), but it still seems odd to bring it into play.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Tuesday, 11 October 2005 18:58 (nineteen years ago)

AH! Spence, I knew you would have a nice distraction for me. Yes, why indeed. Katrina and Iraq are key of course, but I think it's also that he's gonna try to drum up $$ to feed to the drug companies (I think he's an investor in a few) to step up production of anti virals and/or vaccine (he hammered on the vaccine angle in the speech) but isn't a vaccine hit or miss when it comes to flu cuz of the mutations and you can't predict which strains, blah blah, blah? Whereas a antivrial drug to take once you're infected seems much more targeted. What do you say?

― Wiggy (Wiggy), Tuesday, 11 October 2005 19:25 (nineteen years ago)

The funny thing is Hewitt was claiming that Bush et al have been talking about it forever but that the media only just noticed now. Mmm, that's some sweet crack he's on.

― Ned Raggett (Ned), Tuesday, 11 October 2005 19:29 (nineteen years ago)

Oh yes, Ned it's a COMPLETE 180 degree turn for ole Bushy. He has not mentioned it at all and now suddenly it's of "real importance"?? This is something I find disturbing; has he got info that the thing is closer to being a real pandemic than we have been made aware? He doesn't want to get caught again with his pants down not being aware of something that has been on everyone else's radar for years? I sound like a lunatic conspiracy theorist now I am sure, but it makes ya wonder WTF he’s up to now. A lame duck egomaniac prez who wants to make sure he’s got a BIG FAT chapter in the history books, frankly scares me more than the bird flu, and we know the bird flu scares me a lot!

― Wiggy (Wiggy), Tuesday, 11 October 2005 19:42 (nineteen years ago)

(Hahaha where's the other thread where I told Spencer and Laura to make out already?)

― The Ghost of Black Elegance (Dan Perry), Tuesday, 11 October 2005 20:15 (nineteen years ago)

Dan, That's the thread I started but I couldn't find it and I looked for it. twice!

― Wiggy (Wiggy), Tuesday, 11 October 2005 21:46 (nineteen years ago)

I talked to the head of the respiratory department at *INSERT MEDICAL FACILITY I WORK AT AND NEVER NAME HERE* about this again yesterday, as apparently they got briefed on it on Monday. They anticipate the super worst condition being that it kills maybe 5 million, mostly elderly, immuno-compromised, and a few nosocomial cases. 16 million is waaaaay over the top. That's assuming it ever genetically modifies itself, and it isn't stopped quickly enough.

― Alan Conceicao (Alan Conceicao), Tuesday, 11 October 2005 21:52 (nineteen years ago)

That's ok then.

― theantmustdance (theantmustdance), Tuesday, 11 October 2005 21:56 (nineteen years ago)

1. "overpopulation" is an odd concept to me.

^^^^^^ this statement is 100x more odd to me.

― even, Monday, 17 October 2005 17:24 (nineteen years ago)

I feel like "overpopulation", while it may be true to an extent (although I'm not sure it's provable), becomes a paranoid mantra for some people.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 17 October 2005 17:29 (nineteen years ago)

It's like a received paranoia.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 17 October 2005 17:30 (nineteen years ago)

It's completely ridiculous really. A chicken sneezes and they report it on CNN. Nothing proves we will have avian flu which will kill millions of people, nor one that will be passed on from human to human. It could happen but nothing indicates it will. The experts think it will because it's been such a long time we had it, so they think the chances are getting higher, which is of course ridiculous. Also, they base the number of predicted dead on the number of people killed in 1918. But they don't take into account that we have better health care, can act quicker, have advanced,... People don't live like we did in 1918. Some experts say that the longer this avian flu goes around (in poultry), the less likely we'll have it in a mutated form passed on from human to human.

I hate how the media just blows it out of proportion. I'm less scared after reading a few articles of people who can put it in perspective. Of course it *could* happen,but it also could NOT. They say it will but they don't know for sure. Even if it does, the amount of peopel dying is not so high. I think in 1918 it was about 0,7 percent in some regions.

― nathalie, a bum like you (stevie nixed), Monday, 17 October 2005 17:33 (nineteen years ago)

Role-playing different outbreak possibilities over the past few months led federal health officials to broaden their focus on how to detect a bird-flu mutation in another country and quickly send overseas help.

― latebloomer (latebloomer), Monday, 17 October 2005 21:39 (nineteen years ago)

xxpost - you seem pretty paranoid about the perceived paranoia of others.

― amon (eman), Monday, 17 October 2005 22:34 (nineteen years ago)

It is a pet concern of mine.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 17 October 2005 22:39 (nineteen years ago)

I wouldn't classify myself as paranoid though, for me it's more about rigorously placing unexamined paranoia in check. Fear is a terrible thing, and I don't like to see people suffer because of it - especially if they don't have to, or if there's nothing they can do about it.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 17 October 2005 22:45 (nineteen years ago)

Role-playing

― latebloomer (latebloomer), Monday, 17 October 2005 23:07 (nineteen years ago)

That is a strange way to put it.

― Spencer Chow (spencermfi), Monday, 17 October 2005 23:08 (nineteen years ago)

Overpopulation is a myth and if humanity would use all of its resources efficiently there wouldn't be any such problems. People who start to talk about "thinning the herd" are truly creepy.

― walter kranz (walterkranz), Monday, 17 October 2005 23:39 (nineteen years ago)

x-post

i just keep having images of society for creative anachronism-types acting out bird flu outbreak scenarios at the nehest of Uncle Sam.

― latebloomer (latebloomer), Monday, 17 October 2005 23:47 (nineteen years ago)

that's "behest" not nehest, arggh

― latebloomer (latebloomer), Monday, 17 October 2005 23:48 (nineteen years ago)

Can someone smarter than me (most of you) explain how we know it has not already mutated, made its way around the world and just proven ineffective? I seem to recall doomsday predictions for last year's flu that never came to be. How is this different? Just ease of transmission (potentially)? So far it's killed, what, 60 people and a lot of ducks and chickens? What's the death toll of West Nile virus? And given the number of people in Asia, plus the number of caged birds, why haven't the bird-to-people transmission numbers been higher yet?

These are all questions I have. Not cynical questions, though. Just questions. I have no clue whether I should be afraid or just aware. Is this the proverbial asteroid that is hurtling to the Earth, that will definitely strike sometime between now and a million years from now? Does this mean Michael Bay may be working on a bird flu movie? (OK, that was cynical.)

Also, has this appeared yet in any place other than impoverished villages where general health care and hygiene may be worse off than usual (the folks riding public transporation with me aside)?

― Josh in Chicago (Josh in Chicago), Wednesday, 19 October 2005 12:24 (nineteen years ago)

Because, I think, if it would have mutated, it would have already spread and killed millions. Apparently a flu like this sometimes only lasts a month but of course kills a lot of people in that short period of time. I think if it had mutated, the researchers would already know. As you can notice, each *strange* case is being analyzed. They always check if the flu was passed on by birds or humans.

I think it's just proof that this is blown out of proportion. They've been saying this for months and months. Of course it COULD happen, but for the same token, it's possible it'll not take place.

― nathalie, a bum like you (stevie nixed), Wednesday, 19 October 2005 12:32 (nineteen years ago)

I think it was in, what, the Vanity Fair piece that described this virus as "sloppy," in that each time it transmits it's prone to mutation, to the extent that current vaccines may be useless. But sort of like you said, if they've been noting this for months/years - look at the date of that first post - then doesn't that mean it's mutated a bunch of times already? And if it can mutate to be more deadly/more transmittable, then isn't it just as likely that it can mutate to become less deadly/transmittable?

I just remember the flu vacccine lines last year, which proved uneccesary. And I know West Nile virus has killed hundreds in my state alone, and there's been little call to panic.

― Josh in Chicago (Josh in Chicago), Wednesday, 19 October 2005 12:37 (nineteen years ago)

Josh and Nathalie, I think you're slightly off the point of the mutation factor. Without doubt, billions of these bugs have mutated already; the specific danger is that one of these mutations will prove both advantageous (in a natural selection stylee) to the reproduction of the virus, and will happen to be lethal and easily transmittable to humans.

As yet, no mutations have achieved this, but as long as the disease is endemic in poultry, it could happen at any time. Of course, the majority of the most successful parasites are those which live in their host without killing them, so it is indeed possible that a human-transmissible virus might be less dangerous than we fear. But clearly the people in the know recognise the properties of H5N1 could cause vast harm if the necessary mutation does take place and isn't contained.

― Markelby (Mark C), Wednesday, 19 October 2005 12:50 (nineteen years ago)

Rather entertaining being in Italy over the last couple of days where there has been a hysteria about poultry safety that Only the italians can do, being stoked by a goverment line that seems mainly to consist of reassuring the public, that, whilst the risks are there, Italian Poultry can't possible get the avaian flu because, well, they are Italian and simply better and that there wonderful new stickers to prove poultry origin mean that Italians can go on eating chicken with impunity.

― Ed (dali), Wednesday, 19 October 2005 12:56 (nineteen years ago)

If someone is happy about bird flu, I guess Roche´s share holders are among the happiest. Very dodgy.

― olenska (olenska), Wednesday, 19 October 2005 13:04 (nineteen years ago)

Mark, I thought he was referring to the mutation which can transmit from human to human. That's what I was talking about. Of course it has mutated already. Two specialists (in some Belgian newspaper) said/claimed that the longer it is spread, the less likely it'll be able to mutate into a deadly flu that is passed on from human to human.

Those two specialists stressed that others (especially the media but also other specialists) were overreacting.

― nathalie, a bum like you (stevie nixed), Wednesday, 19 October 2005 13:06 (nineteen years ago)

-clearly the people in the know recognise the properties of H5N1 could cause vast harm if the necessary mutation does take place and isn't contained.

xpost But couldn't this be said about any potentially deadly airborn illness, from chicken pox to tuberculosis? And I only mentioned West Nile since that's transmitted via mosquito, and there are a hell of a lot more mosquitos in the world than there are edible poultry. Or am I missing the point/problem. I understand the need for concern, but I just don't see how this is any different from the many medical "sky is falling" stories of the past several years.

― Josh in Chicago (Josh in Chicago), Wednesday, 19 October 2005 17:16 (nineteen years ago)

it's not a food borne illness though... didn't someone say you'd have to grind your chicken up and snort it or something?

― firstworldman (firstworldman), Wednesday, 19 October 2005 17:44 (nineteen years ago)

God, I hope not! If so, I better get the shot ... stat!

― Josh in Chicago (Josh in Chicago), Wednesday, 19 October 2005 17:48 (nineteen years ago)

Mike Davis was on Democracy Now this morning and goes into the nitty gritty about bird flu politics. He falls on the paranoia side, but unlike a lot of the current chicken littles his paranoia is pretty well founded.

― Elvis Telecom (Chris Barrus), Wednesday, 19 October 2005 18:17 (nineteen years ago)

does David Shrigley read ILX?

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v369/colinohara/billboard3.jpg

― jed_ (jed), Wednesday, 26 October 2005 16:57 (nineteen years ago)

four months pass...

Rabbi blames the gays.

― Alba (Alba), Tuesday, 21 March 2006 14:08 (nineteen years ago)

two weeks pass...

It's in Scotland noo

― stet (stet), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 19:24 (nineteen years ago)

Nice knowing ya.

― Ned Raggett (Ned), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 19:35 (nineteen years ago)

not confirmed as H5N1 yet, though ...

― grimly fiendish (grimlord), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 19:54 (nineteen years ago)

Test results will be available tomorrow apparently.

― Brigadier Lethbridge-Pfunkboy (Kerr), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 20:01 (nineteen years ago)

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California officials expect bird flu to arrive on the U.S. West Coast this summer in what could be the first sign in the United States of the deadly virus, which has already swept from Asia across Europe and down to Africa.

― Fight the Real Enemy -- Tasti D-Lite (ex machina), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 20:11 (nineteen years ago)

I DO NOT WANT TO DIE.

― Special Agent Gene Krupa (orion), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 20:23 (nineteen years ago)

It's a safe bet that it's going to happen at some point.

― Matt (Matt), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 20:27 (nineteen years ago)

>It's in Scotland noo

The Fence Collective will have to wear Altern-8 style masks.

― KeefW (kmw), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 21:23 (nineteen years ago)

I'm anti-bird flu.

― M@tt He1geson (Matt Helgeson), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 22:12 (nineteen years ago)

NOT TO WORRY! if we, the western world, handle bird flu* as well as we've handled aids**...

*still just killing chickens

**still killing a lot of africans

― hstencil (hstencil), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 22:16 (nineteen years ago)

the plague is a fine book

― mookieproof (mookieproof), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 22:34 (nineteen years ago)

best headline evah
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4881618.stm

― ken c (ken c), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 22:55 (nineteen years ago)

not confirmed as H5N1 yet, though ...

Yeh, but it *is* H5, so it's not a fart off it.

― stet (stet), Wednesday, 5 April 2006 23:55 (nineteen years ago)

The Fence Collective will have to wear Altern-8 style masks.

Maybe at Homegame they can sell 'Fence' branded masks.

― Craig Gilchrist (Craig Gilchrist), Thursday, 6 April 2006 06:24 (nineteen years ago)

Should I be worried about this yet?

― C J (C J), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:28 (nineteen years ago)

what would you do about it if you are?

― ken c (ken c), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:37 (nineteen years ago)

DOn't worry - they've got a vaccine now

― Mr Jones (Mr Jones), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:38 (nineteen years ago)

Sky News confirmed it's the H5N1. BBC's not yet though. I'm going to Fife this weekend, so I'd best not go playing with any dead swans.

― Craig Gilchrist (Craig Gilchrist), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:41 (nineteen years ago)

what would you do about it if you are?

I might wander about with a glum expression on my face.

I live near an RSPB wetlands reserve. I'm vaguely concerned that incoming foreign birds might bring something which will infect the chickens I keep in my back garden. I don't want them to die! They have names!

― C J (C J), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:45 (nineteen years ago)

http://today.reuters.com/News/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-04-06T111420Z_01_L06167729_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-BRITAIN-RESULT.xml

― RJG (RJG), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:45 (nineteen years ago)

I think if you get birdflu you should takes a massive does of benadryl

― Mr Jones (Mr Jones), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:47 (nineteen years ago)

Is it going cheap?

― C J (C J), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:48 (nineteen years ago)

Damned Queen's vermin (all swans are owned by QEII, is the law and SWANS ARE MEAN).

― suzy (suzy), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:49 (nineteen years ago)

use other facts please

― RJG (RJG), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:50 (nineteen years ago)

Ooh, I'd never realise I wasn't perfect if not for you, RJG. Thanks again for your curiously overinterested input.

― suzy (suzy), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:54 (nineteen years ago)

I SAID IS IT GOING CHEAP

cheep

― C J (C J), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:54 (nineteen years ago)

i used to live among swans. they are scary, you have to earn their respect.

― Real Goths Don't Wear Black (Enrique), Thursday, 6 April 2006 10:59 (nineteen years ago)

"you have to earn their respect" = "if you feed them dried corn maybe they won't attack your leg or try to kill your dog"

― Michael Daddino (epicharmus), Thursday, 6 April 2006 11:07 (nineteen years ago)

DOn't worry - they've got a vaccine now

Uh no, they don't know if it'll work.

― Nathalie (stevie nixed), Thursday, 6 April 2006 11:13 (nineteen years ago)

Proper fact: Queenie shares the swans with the Vintners' and Dyers' companies, who were granted rights of ownership in the 15th century. You have to check the notches in their beaks, see?

― Mädchen (Madchen), Thursday, 6 April 2006 11:14 (nineteen years ago)

h5n1 it is!

― Real Goths Don't Wear Black (Enrique), Thursday, 6 April 2006 12:33 (nineteen years ago)

Confirmed http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4882946.stm

― Brigadier Lethbridge-Pfunkboy (Kerr), Thursday, 6 April 2006 12:34 (nineteen years ago)

Welcome to our glorious Kingdom, o virus!

― Mädchen (Madchen), Thursday, 6 April 2006 12:37 (nineteen years ago)

i've just panic bought a load of lemsip.

― ken c (ken c), Thursday, 6 April 2006 13:14 (nineteen years ago)

The bird, tested at the EU's bird flu laboratory in Surrey, is the UK's first case of H5N1 in a wild bird.

A 1.8-mile (3km) protection zone to prevent poultry being moved is in place around Cellardyke in Fife, where the bird was found eight days ago.

you'd think, if you're seriously concerned, and have some 1.8-mile protection zone thingie, you wouldn't then transport the actual swan with the flu all the way across the country to surrey!

― ken c (ken c), Thursday, 6 April 2006 13:17 (nineteen years ago)

amirite?

― ken c (ken c), Thursday, 6 April 2006 13:19 (nineteen years ago)

well yeah, that is kind of surprising!.

― Real Goths Don't Wear Black (Enrique), Thursday, 6 April 2006 13:20 (nineteen years ago)

The EU has a Bird Flu Laboratory? Cor. They probably mean the Veterinary Laboratories Agency in glamourous Addlestone.

― Mädchen (Madchen), Thursday, 6 April 2006 13:22 (nineteen years ago)

Fuckin' swan.

― Mestema (davidcorp), Thursday, 6 April 2006 14:44 (nineteen years ago)

This is wonderful news when we were out at the weekend feeding the birds at our local loch which is just down the coast from where this bird was found.

― mms (mms), Thursday, 6 April 2006 15:07 (nineteen years ago)

This is obviously Calum's fault somehow, since he lives just down the road.

― aldo_cowpat (aldo_cowpat), Thursday, 6 April 2006 15:34 (nineteen years ago)

I'm still reading it as 'hisnae'. Let's hope C*l*m H5N1 got it.

― Onimo (GerryNemo), Thursday, 6 April 2006 16:36 (nineteen years ago)

"Fuckin' swan"

That's pretty much what you'd have be to doing to the infected bird in question in order to catch flu off it.

― Hello Sunshine (Hello Sunshine), Thursday, 6 April 2006 16:41 (nineteen years ago)

Bird flu expert on evening TV news just said "there is no need to get in a FLAP", ha ha.

― C J (C J), Thursday, 6 April 2006 16:55 (nineteen years ago)

three weeks pass...

I saw some dude on Oprah who said that if the virus mutate into a flu that can be exchanged between humans it would be the healthiest(those with the best immune system) that would be most at risk...has anyone heard that before?

― Lovelace (Lovelace), Thursday, 27 April 2006 22:16 (nineteen years ago)

Do you know how many time zones there are in the Soviet Union?

― DOQQUN (donut), Thursday, 27 April 2006 22:46 (nineteen years ago)

so what's next year's plague? So far we've been told to run screaming for the hills from the West Nile Virus, SARS, and now the bird flu.... c'mon medical community, is that all you got?

― Shakey Mo Collier (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, 27 April 2006 22:48 (nineteen years ago)

three weeks pass...

human to human transmission in Indonesia?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aWESsJvt6CFE&refer=asia

― StanM (StanM), Tuesday, 23 May 2006 19:09 (nineteen years ago)

Between members of close families yes, but it's not actually mutated.

― Stew (stew s), Wednesday, 24 May 2006 13:38 (nineteen years ago)

close? heh, i don't get on with my family at all. oh, right.

― Enrique IX: The Mediator (Enrique), Wednesday, 24 May 2006 13:40 (nineteen years ago)

Are there any Bush appointees in the HHS?

― Fluffy Bear (Fluffy Bear Hearts Rainbows), Wednesday, 24 May 2006 13:55 (nineteen years ago)

If FEMA is any measure of US preparedness, we are all FUXORED

― Mr Jones (Mr Jones), Wednesday, 24 May 2006 13:56 (nineteen years ago)

off to Costco!

― Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, 24 May 2006 13:59 (nineteen years ago)

why did they say to stock up on tuna anyways? is that the cure for bird flu? and powdered milk?

― Mr Jones (Mr Jones), Wednesday, 24 May 2006 14:15 (nineteen years ago)

Tuna = non Avian flu-tainted long-term protein supply?

― JW (ex machina), Wednesday, 24 May 2006 14:26 (nineteen years ago)

http://www.bigelow.org/amt/flying_fish.jpg

DUM DUM DUMMMM...

― Fluffy Bear (Fluffy Bear Hearts Rainbows), Wednesday, 24 May 2006 14:32 (nineteen years ago)

two years pass...

Oops!

Officials investigate how bird flu viruses were sent to unsuspecting labs

Officials are trying to get to the bottom of how vaccine manufacturer Baxter International Inc. made "experimental virus material" based on a human flu strain but contaminated with the H5N1 avian flu virus and then distributed it to an Austrian company.
That company, Avir Green Hills Biotechnology, then disseminated the supposed H3N2 virus product to subcontractors in the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Germany. Authorities in the four European countries are looking into the incident, and their efforts are being closely watched by the World Health Organization and the European Centre for Disease Control.
Though it appears none of the 36 or 37 people who were exposed to the contaminated product became infected, the incident is being described as "a serious error" on the part of Baxter, which is on the brink of securing a European licence for an H5N1 vaccine. That vaccine is made at a different facility, in the Czech Republic.
"For this particular incident ... the horse did not get out (of the barn)," Dr. Angus Nicoll of the ECDC said from Stockholm.
"But that doesn't mean that we and WHO and the European Commission and the others aren't taking it as seriously as you would any laboratory accident with dangerous pathogens - which you have here."

Additional commentary and paranoia located at: http://cryptogon.com/?p=7187

― Chris Barrus (Elvis Telecom), Thursday, 26 February 2009 20:52 (sixteen years ago)

eleven years pass...

Simpler times

― Lipstick Traces (on a Cigarette Alone) (James Redd and the Blecchs), Monday, 16 March 2020 00:51 (five years ago)

TS: chickens vs. pangolins

― romanesque architect (pomenitul), Monday, 16 March 2020 00:53 (five years ago)

I forgot about this.

― sorry for butt rockin (Neanderthal), Monday, 16 March 2020 00:57 (five years ago)

He who forgets threads is doomed to repeat them

― Lipstick Traces (on a Cigarette Alone) (James Redd and the Blecchs), Monday, 16 March 2020 01:44 (five years ago)

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