It's North Atlantic/East Pacific Hurricane Season!

Balboa Island, in Newport Beach, exists only because of one big fucking tropical storm in the 40s or 50s that made landfall in O.C. that essentially moved a shitload of sand closer west. (unless this is an urban myth? Elvis T shoud have the lowdown here.)

The last time a tropical system made landfall in California as a tropical storm was 1939, so I suppose that makes sense.

Urban myth. Balboa Island was originally a sandbar that was extended into a full "island" in 1908 by dredging the harbor and piling the sand on top of the island. Lido and Linda Isle were also built the same way - make an island and then turn around and sell lots on the sand for $$$$.

The only tropical system to make landfall in Orange County in the past century was an unnamed system that struck on Sept. 24, 1939, during a heat wave that sent the temperature to a record 119 degrees in Orange. The storm's winds were blowing about 50 mph when it made landfall. The system lashed parts of Orange County with 5 inches of rain, swamping and capsizing boats in Newport Harbor, including the Jolly Tom. One of the Jolly Tom's passengers drowned and five were injured.

The combination of wind and rain was severe enough to kill 48 people across Southern California.

..which sounds like a picnic compared to an annual southeast hurricane, no doubt.. but SoCal has little to zero idea of how to deal with major tropical storms, so when/if one does happen, it will suck bigtime.

In any case, it seemed like someone fused this history with the creation of Balboa Island. I stand corrected.

I can't find any pictures online, but the photos of the 1949 snowstorm in SoCal are amazing.

A Florida businessman who claims he once made a thundercloud disappear from Doppler radar says he can take the fury out of hurricanes, too.

Washington, DC -- Peter Cordani isn't a meteorologist or even a weather aficionado. He's just a Florida CEO sick of seeing his state pounded by hurricanes.

As head honcho at Dyn-O-Mat, a maker of environmental absorbents, it dawned on Cordani about five years ago that his company's patented Dyn-O-Gel might have the power to take the punch out of hurricanes.

His first true test of the theory came in July 2001, when the company used a B-57 bomber to attack a thunderclap with the super absorbent polymer in the waters off Palm Beach. The storm evaporated completely from Doppler radar, according to Cordani.

"It was an incredible moment," he said.

Bolstered by the success of the field test, Cordani gathered a team of scientists and investors, plus a convoy of 747 jetliners from Evergreen Aviation in Colorado, for the mother of all trials.

Tropical Storm Arlene should be up this way by Saturday. I wanted to post it in my 2005 Hurricane Season thread and I've been searching for it but I can't find it at all. Did someone delete it?

-- Ian Riese-Moraine. Exposing ambitious careerists as charlatans since 1986. (eastern_mantr...), June 9th, 2005.

Allright, Tropical Storm Arlene's at 60 miles per hour and cruising through the Gulf in a northerly direction. We've already had some rain associated with the outflow of convection and we're under a tropical storm warning. Sweet.

-- Ian Riese-Moraine. Exposing ambitious careerists as charlatans since 1986. (eastern_mantr...), June 10th, 2005.

Latest update: 70 miles per hour and they keep moving the projected path further east and now the tropical storm warnings have been extended even further east. However, it's going north-northwest now, but we'll still get a lot of rain out of it (despite it having drizzled the entire day).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/archive/2005070700/DENNIS.track.png

Lots of luck to the ILXors in the path of Dennis. I hope it doesn't trash you guys too badly.

The power only flickered once here. It's been very blustery, more so than it was with Bonnie, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne last year. Each system has been a little more damaging here in Tallahassee than the one preceding it and I think it's nature's way of preparing this city for something devastating soon considering that the last major hurricane to pass almost directly over this vicinity was in 1851. Nonetheless, I don't think we'll see much more rain out of this (although another squall's literally just coming in -- it's raining out immediately in front of my flat but it hasn't arrived at the back of it), and the winds will likely decrease on through the evening. As for debris, there's plenty of leaves strewn and branches down, some pretty large -- the largest one fell not even two feet from the trunk of a police car (that "belongs" to an officer in the apartment building to the left of mine). The rain kept blowing into the windows as if my flat were inside a car wash, and the peak gusts around here were about gale-force. It's been quite fun to watch, even if gusts have blown open our door about four times (we've walked outside a bit and returned inside without bolting the door, that's why)!

The one thing I remember from "being in the middle of a hurricane" footage was the weird thing where toilet water receded and if you stuck a wadded up tissue in there, the toilet would vacuum it up. That was really weird to see. I forget the physics explanation related to why that happens.

The toilet thing's possibly related to the ultra-low pressure in a hurricane, but I'm probably wrong about that.

There's apparently a tropical wave halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Cape Verde's and it might be a tropical depression by tomorrow at the latest. I wonder where that'll head, considering that the Bermuda high will likely still be parked in the same spot as it always is in summer and serve undoubtedly as a steerring mechanism provided that the system goes far enough west and survives.

Time for crashzzzzzzz.

How are things in Tallahassee?

Oy, it looks like there'll be an Emily threatening the central Caribbean as a hurricane by Friday. Hmmm...

God, I'm so scared for New Orleans. This is the storm they've always dreaded. I was reading an article yesterday from 2000 and apparently if the hurricane were to damage some of the plants around there parts of New Orleans might be uninhabitable for a long time. The water might take about ten weeks to recede, too. Hurricane Betsy (a Category 3 at the time of landfall in 1965) made half of the city flooded with over 20 feet of water and it took a long time to recede -- this storm prompted the city to build that extensive system of levees, which will be no match for Katrina if it is supposed to make a direct hit as anticipated. My paternal grandparents (who lived in Metairie at the time) had some tales about that storm!

Monday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. High around 84. Windy, with a east northeast wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to between 20 and 25 mph. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Monday Night: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. Low near 72. Windy, with a east wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to between 40 and 45 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between two and three inches possible.

Tuesday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms. High around 88. Windy, with a north wind 45 to 50 mph decreasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between one and two inches possible.

It suits my mood. Let the motherfucker come and do what it wants.

The gusts inside the eyewall of Katrina are up to 215 mph.

I was wondering whether power was back on yet for most of Miami-Dade. I have a friend in Fort Lauderdale and I know she totally breaks out if the air conditioning isn't on to keep her cool. Going through Frances and Jeanne was torture for her, and I'm sure this was too.

THIS IS FROM THE NWS IN NEW ORLEANS..DEVESTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE IN 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS..PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL LEAVING MOST HOMES DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAME LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS..PETS..AND LIVESTOCK WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK..POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS..AND MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS..THE VAST MAJORITY OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT TOTALLY DEFOLIATED..FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN, LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED..

i am SO relieved they live here now. love and prayers for everyone still there!

So, let's have a link to that text at NOAA, please.

A Category 5 hurricane, the most severe type measured, Katrina has been reported heading directly toward the city of New Orleans. This would be a human catastrophe, since New Orleans sits in a bowl below sea level. However, Katrina is not only moving on New Orleans. It also is moving on the Port of Southern Louisiana. Were it to strike directly and furiously, Katrina would not only take a massive human toll, but also an enormous geopolitical one.

The Port of Southern Louisiana is the fifth-largest port in the world in terms of tonnage, and the largest port in the United States. The only global ports larger are Singapore, Rotterdam, Shanghai and Hong Kong. It is bigger than Houston, Chiba and Nagoya, Antwerp and New York/New Jersey. It is a key link in U.S. imports and exports and critical to the global economy.

The Port of Southern Louisiana stretches up and down the Mississippi River for about 50 miles, running north and south of New Orleans from St. James to St. Charles Parish. It is the key port for the export of grains to the rest of the world -- corn, soybeans, wheat and animal feed. Midwestern farmers and global consumers depend on those exports. The United States imports crude oil, petrochemicals, steel, fertilizers and ores through the port. Fifteen percent of all U.S. exports by value go through the port. Nearly half of the exports go to Europe.

The Port of Southern Louisiana is a river port. It depends on the navigability of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi is notorious for changing its course, and in southern Louisiana -- indeed along much of its length -- levees both protect the land from its water and maintain its course and navigability. Dredging and other maintenance are constant and necessary to maintain its navigability. It is fragile.

If New Orleans is hit, the Port of Southern Louisiana, by definition, also will be hit. No one can predict the precise course of the storm or its consequences. However, if we speculate on worse-case scenarios the following consequences jump out:

The port might become in whole or part unusable if levees burst. If the damage to the river and port facilities could not be repaired within 30 days when the U.S. harvests are at their peak, the effect on global agricultural prices could be substantial.
There is a large refinery at Belle Chasse. It is the only refinery that is seriously threatened by the storm, but if it were to be inundated, 250,000 barrels per day would go off line. Moreover, the threat of environmental danger would be substantial.
About 2 percent of world crude production and roughly 25 percent of U.S.-produced crude comes from the Gulf of Mexico and already is affected by Katrina. Platforms in the path of Katrina have been evacuated but others continue pumping. If this follows normal patterns, most production will be back on line within hours or days. However, if a Category 5 hurricane (of which there have only been three others in history) has a different effect, the damage could be longer lasting. Depending on the effect on the Port of Southern Louisiana, the ability to ship could be affected.
A narrow, two-lane highway that handles approximately 10,000 vehicles a day, is used for transport of cargo and petroleum products and provides port access for thousands of employees is threatened with closure. A closure of as long as two weeks could rapidly push gasoline prices higher.

At a time when oil prices are in the mid-60-dollar range and starting to hurt, the hurricane has an obvious effect. However, it must be borne in mind that the Mississippi remains a key American shipping route, particularly for the export and import of a variety of primary commodities from grain to oil, as well as steel and rubber. Andrew Jackson fought hard to keep the British from taking New Orleans because he knew it was the main artery for U.S. trade with the world. He was right and its role has not changed since then.

This is not a prediction. We do not know the path of the storm and we cannot predict its effects. It is a warning that if a Category 5 hurricane hits the Port of Southern Louisiana and causes the damage that is merely at the outer reach of the probable, the effect on the global system will be substantial.

Well, if this is it, I guess it was nice knowing you, ILX. My last thoughts will be of Jon Williams. (As in "Why couldn't this have happened to him instead?")

My paternal grandfather lives in Metairie but he could end up in Lake Pontchartrain for all I care. I hope my friend Catherine's left the city, though -- and hopefully not for Hattiesburg as they'll surely get fucked, too.

Everybody ready for $4-5/gallon gas for a couple of weeks?

Has a whole city of this size ever been evacuated before? Seems like a logistical nightmare.

Apparently there is talk of it flooding as well. One disaster worker called it, tastelessly, "stiff soup".

I'm off for groceries, and to fill the gas tanks and gas can.

Has a whole city of this size ever been evacuated before? Seems like a logistical nightmare.

New Orleans used to take 72 hours to fully evacuate, but apparently they've redesigned the contraflow and so traffic's actually moving more smoothly once you leave the city proper. The Superdome could probably hold most of the 100,000 people that can't leave the city for whatever reason, but there is that definite concern for flooding (25-35 foot storm surge + rainfall + Lake Pontchartrain + Mississippi River + wave action on top of that).

During Hurricane Floyd 17,000,000 evaucated the East Coast, rather unnecessarily. Jacksonville was probably the largest of those cities to be emptied. It took 12 hours for people to drive to Tallahassee from there, and Interstate 10 was westbound only in all four lanes.

if such a man exists, he is a symbol of all that makes america great

You have balls. I don't know that this is the right course of action, but you have balls.

fetchboy, you're fucking crazy, but I wish you the best. I'd like to be there just to watch the wind and rain, even though I possibly wouldn't live to talk about it.

up out of

confusing, because one of the striking things i remember about my visits to lafourche parish was how they didn't really have graveyards - everyone is bured in above-ground mausoleums, because you hit water after like a foot of digging.

And admonishing Rock Hardy for not putting plywood up on his windows even though he lives a good three hundred or so miles away from the coast is ridiculous. I know it looks scary to the rest of us with Weather Channel dudes flopping around in their windbreakers, but I don't think that any TVA dams are going to break because of a hurricane.

I'm sure the port will be fine.. but if not... holy fucking shit. And that goes out to Europe!

Best of luck to everyone in the area.

http://media.putfile.com/foxnews

WWL TV in New Orleans

Storm Digest

General blog list tracking the storm.

All this from Instapundit -- I may not agree with Glenn Reynolds at all but I appreciate his thoroughness.

Katrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since many people will be unable or unwilling to get out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knock down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.

I have focused on New Orleans in much of my discussions about this storm, but Katrina will do tens of billions in damage all along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Mobile Bay could well see a 10-foot storm surge. And inland areas will take heavy damage as well; Katrina will still be a hurricane 180 miles inland, and cause widespread flooding throughout the Tennessee Valley.

Hi Ned, big hugs to you and LA

Seriously, I've only spent a little time there but I've been working at getting back ever since. I hope to make the place my home some day, if only for a few years. God bless the town and everyone in it and make sure they come through without too much devastation.

Sunday, August 28, 2005; Posted: 10:46 p.m. EDT (02:46 GMT)

(CNN) -- Flooding expected from Hurricane Katrina could wreak catastrophe on New Orleans, overwhelming its water and sewage systems, damaging its structures and leaving survivors in a bowl of toxic soup, a top hurricane expert said Sunday.

Landfall is expected early Monday.

"We need to recognize we may be about to experience our equivalent of the Asian tsunami, in terms of the damage and the numbers of people that can be killed," said Ivor van Heerden, director of the Louisiana State University Public Health Research Center in Baton Rouge.

Some 25 feet of standing water is expected in many parts of the city -- almost twice the height of the average home -- and computer models suggest that more than 80 percent of buildings would be badly damaged or destroyed, he said. (Watch a report on the worst-case scenario)

Floodwaters from the east will carry toxic waste from the "Industrial Canal" area, nicknamed after the chemical plants there. From the west, floodwaters would flow through the Norco Destrehan Industrial Complex, which includes refineries and chemical plants, said van Heerden, who has studied computer models about the impact of a strong hurricane for four years.

"These chemical plants are going to start flying apart, just as the other buildings do," he predicted. "So, we have the potential for release of benzene, hydrochloric acid, chlorine and so on."

That could result in severe air and water pollution, he said.

In New Orleans, which lies below sea level, gas and diesel tanks are all located above ground for the same reason that bodies are buried above ground. In the event of a flood, "those tanks will start to float, shear their couplings, and we'll have the release of these rather volatile compounds," van Heerden added.

Because gasoline floats on water, "we could end up with some pretty severe and large -- area-wise -- fires."

"So, we're looking at a bowl full of highly contaminated water with contaminated air flowing around and, literally, very few places for anybody to go where they'll be safe."

He went further.

"So, imagine you're the poor person who decides not to evacuate: Your house will disintegrate around you. The best you'll be able to do is hang on to a light pole, and while you're hanging on, the fire ants from all the mounds -- of which there is two per yard on average -- will clamber up that same pole. And, eventually, the fire ants will win."

The levees intended to protect the city vary in height, from as low as 10 feet above sea level to about 14 feet, he said. They too are vulnerable, because they are made of earth, he said.

- Disaster waiting to happen -

Previous studies have suggested a catastrophic toll in lives and property if a major hurricane were to hit the New Orleans area, where about 1.3 million people live.

Walter Maestri, the emergency management chief in neighboring Jefferson Parish, said Hurricane Georges in 1998 could have killed as many as 44,000 people had it struck the city directly.

"The way it's described, we describe it here, is Lake Pontchartrain has now become Lake New Orleans," he told CNN in 2004.

Van Heerden said levees built to protect New Orleans from Lake Pontchartrain could be buffeted by waves from the lake, which is about 23 miles by 35 miles in area.

"You're going to have enormous waves develop on that lake, especially with as much as 14 hours of hurricane-force winds." Those waves will erode the levees, raising the possibility of their collapse, he said.

"This is what we've been saying has been going to happen for years," he said. "Unfortunately, it's coming true."

Rick Luettich, a professor at the University of North Carolina's Institute of Marine Sciences, compared Katrina's expected impact on areas far up the Mississippi to "grabbing the end of the bed cover and giving it a hard snap."

That snap will push "probably in excess of 10 feet" of floodwater up the river, he predicted. "It will propagate up the river like a wave," past Baton Rouge, more than 70 miles away, he said.

For 15 years, Luettich has been developing a hydrodynamic circulation model -- called AdCirc -- that he said the Federal Emergency Management Agency has endorsed to help emergency managers predict storm damage.

Apologizing for the possibility that his comment could be interpreted as somewhat ghoulish, he said, "This is, in some ways, a little bit exciting for us, because it's a real opportunity to test this technology we've developed and see how well it works."

am i the only one who wants to smack the people saying this upside their heads?

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/map_spectrop07_ltst_6nh_enus_600x405.jpg

http://www.livejournal.com/users/katrinacane/friends

being among a coupla dozen thousand strangers in the Superdome is not how i'd spend a monday...

Strangely enough, beside the river is probably the highest point in New Orleans. I know the World Trade Center there (yes, they've got one) is at an elevation of about 10 metres, which is high for New Orleans (as some spots in the city are over 3 metres below sea level).

http://photos22.flickr.com/38204517_6b684b95d2.jpg?v=0

http://bonaldi.thehold.net/wire/camillebefore.jpg

After:

http://bonaldi.thehold.net/wire/camilleafter.jpg

I tried to call Adam yesterday, but got the "all signals are busy" deal. I got through to a friend from the Hot 8 Brass Band, and he had left his house but checked into a hotel in the Quarter (!).

it must be a bit awful being stuck in that dome thing just waiting waiting waiting to see if your house gets wrecked, even more so if you're already down on your luck. would those folks have insurance? what happens if their houses get trashed? then where do they go?

this is really quite horrific to read about; i keep hoping it somehow won't be as bad as everyone fears.

x-post: rock hardy, your blitz spirit is an example to us all!

--cnn

We need a "Hurricane Porn: C/D" thread. Does Anderson Cooper REALLY need to file a report every 15 minutes. IT'S RAINING, I'M GETTING BLOWN AROUND BY THE WIND, LET ME TELL HOW WINDY IT IS, LOOK AT THAT BRIDGE OVER THERE, LOOK AT ME, ETC.

cooper is INSANE, has been since he was on Channel One when I was in high school.

a pic from downtown NOLA...

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz062

I was wondering about that cgi-bin part, but I went to went to http://weather.noaa.gov and went down the menu to New Orleans and came back to it.

These could be prescient words.

Retail Gas Prices Set to Hit New Highs

"Unfortunately, I don't think $3 a gallon is a hyperbolic number in some markets anymore."

The southern part of the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway's reportedly underwater.

MAN: Walking my dogs.

SMITH: Why are you still here? I’m just curious.

MAN: None of your fucking business.

SMITH: Oh that was a good answer, wasn’t it? That was live on international television. Thanks so much for that. You know we apologize.

I hate to haha but HAHA, wtf? These are my kinda looters.

Though if they were looting the Fox News van I might look the other way

My grandmother in Memphis still insists that a hurricane hit her town a few years ago. Granted, it was some strong winds that knocked downtown around a bit and some folks didn't have power for a few weeks, BUT IT WASN'T A HURRICANE.

My Australian mother-in-law rang this afternoon to make sure that the hurricane hadn't hit Little Rock. It was mighty sweet of her.

54 confirmed deaths now, and i think that's just within one county in mississippi.

We never did lose power or phone/DSL.
About 10 p.m. last night, one of the three big trees on our property went down — a 60 ft. scalybark (hickory) tree. It fell west, missing utility lines to the north, my office to the east and our house to the south.

About 11 p.m., I noticed water seeping down our bedroom wall. Went up to the attic, and we have a roof leak around one of the old unused chimneys.

Other than that, I think we're okay except for the usual small limbs and twigs cleanup. I'll take pictures, and post some whenever I have time.

this thread is unbelievable. though ilx usually is

And authorities said they would not be able to reach some of the hardest-hit areas until first light on Tuesday.

The storm is blamed for at least 67 deaths and that toll is almost certain to rise. Mississippi officials said at least 54 people were killed there, including 30 who were killed in an apartment complex near the Biloxi beach. Alabama reported two deaths. The storm killed 11 people last week when it made its initial landfall in Florida.

While Louisiana officials have not yet confirmed any deaths there, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said there have been reports of bodies floating in the floodwaters.

"My heart is heavy tonight," Nagin said in the interview on CNN affiliate WWL-TV. "I don't have any good news to share."

Nagin said that about 80 percent of the city was flooded and that some areas were under 20 feet of water.

Water poured into the city from Lake Pontchartrain after a two-block-long breach opened in a section of a levee that protects the low-lying city.

In the city's 9th Ward neighborhood, rescue efforts continued throughout the night, with authorities in boats plucking residents from submerged homes after water topped another levee.

CNN's Adaora Udoji, monitoring the rescue efforts, said authorities had ferried at least 500 people from their homes, flooded with as much as six feet of water. Some residents reported water rose so fast they did not have time to grab their shoes.

Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco told CNN Monday that a 50-inch water main was severed during the storm, cutting the supply of drinkable water.

The more I read about this storm's aftermath...damn.

it's going to take a long time to survey all the damage. and cnn are often slow to report things, but then they've got A LOT of areas to cover.

what ned said.

Katrina's aftermath

More than three people from a nursing home. Especially if the news is going to lead with it.

I assumed that they meant Rain In The Afternoon?, but now I realize that fuck, we got another 'cane a-coming.

texas gov & louisiana gov have declared States of Emergency.

oh dear.

Obv I don't plan on doing anything on Saturday, which is when all the fireworks are expected to happen locally.

Actually, it'd be ideal if Rita hit right between Corpus and Galveston. It'd still provide damage galore to both AND to Houston, but it wouldn't be The Worst Case Scenario for anyone (except for maybe the poor souls who DO live right between Corpus and Galveston).

Well, I mean, if it's a choice between stragglers having to find last minute non-train non-commercial-bus service vs. having those vehicles/trains destroyed by not having them leave in time, therefore crippling those services for months if not years afterwards, I'd choose the former -- though neither scenario is a picnic.

Donut, your friend should be FINE. Friday's definitely before the storm is projected to hit the TX Gulf Coast. No need to fret.

I've got relatives in Bellaire (Houston). Ouch.

BTW, anyone stop to think what kind of utter havoc this will play on shipping in America? New Orleans, the chief port at the mouth of the Mississippi, is shut down for a long, long time. All its refineries are toast. Now, Houston, among the largest ports in the nation, and the refineries along the Texas shore are playing target practice for another category 5.

running out of names for hurricanes. They use one name per alphabet letter, and next they're going to the greek alphabet.

-Jacksons
-Baldwins
-Wilsons
-Pop stars who put out books of their own poetry
-Arquettes

AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.

I can see them all tearing up their forecast models and quitting for a beer.