Can anything stop Cameron becoming the next PM?

Essentially what I'm saying is that Labour under Blair are in a comparable position now to the Tories under Thatcher in 1990ish. They still managed to win the next election, partly through "let's give this new guy a chance" and partly through just not trusting Kinnock as a potential Prime Minister. I get the feeling Cameron is still perceived of as 'nice but lightweight', which doesn't win elections.

So they'll all go and vote Ukip (or BNP), making it much harder for the Tories to win in the marginals.

The sooner people realise Cameron is a lying, two-faced sweet-talking scumbag (not unlike most politicians, I'll grant you) the better.

I think they'll vote Conservative - isn't that what Cameron's betting on? No matter how 'left' he goes the old school tories desperately want to be back in power where they truly believe they belong so they'll vote for him in the (probably) correct belief that he'll be more right wing when he gets into power.

"yeah, but it doesn't make any difference who I vote for, does it?" comes the tedious reply.

I don't think there's not enough of them for that to be significant. More significant are those New Labour voters who are basically Tories, and there's rather a lot of them. See also, the Liberal vote collapsing and going to the Tories.

But that's the real reason they're not voting, because they don't perceive that they're vote will make any difference, not because they're bone idle. I doubt there's many people out there thinking "God I desperately want Labour / The Tories / AN Other to win this election, but I just can't be fucked to walk a hundred yards and put a cross on a piece of paper, oh woe is me!"

Tedious it may be but for a lot of people, that's absolutely correct.

They won't do anything come a General Election

You try finding a left wing party to vote for, for a start

Is it really a two horse race in ur constituency? I mean, round here pretty close.

Agreed, I'll do something, but I don't think I'd be able to bring myself to vote Labour. Lib Dem counts as a protest vote around here anyway so maybe them, it's as valid as a spoiled ballot and it'll make their candidate feel a whole vote better.

I vote Lib Dem and have considered jopining the party in the past. One reason is that i am very pro-European and they seem to be the only party who really share my stance. I am pro-EU *to a point* but feel that the only real chance to reform it is to be as involved in it as possible.

in the absence of a fair electoral system of my own invention (which I plan to write a book, or at the very least start a website to promote) I consider voting Lib Dem to be the least of multiple evils.

We could end up with a situation where things swing back and forth between Labour and the Tories every four years for a while, because I really can't see Cameron winning by a 1997-style landslide. But I agree with Tom that the LibDems will be the big losers here.

NO IT'S NOT! If it's a lot of people and they ALL vote for someone, that person gets in.Sixty thousand people sitting at home saying "ho hum, I really like that independent candidate, but there's no point voting for him because he won't get in unless 59,999 other people vote for him" = wrong wrong wrong on so many levels.

"Lumping Nader in with Galloway is a vile slur on Nader!"
I meant more in the 'splitting the leftie vote to allow the right in' sense of things.

If it's a hung parliament I wouldn't bet on the LD's siding with Labour. Locally they've tended to go wherever they can.

Who gets to snap up Plaid Cymru?

I think it's highly unlikely that everyone who doesn't vote has the same political viewpoint and would want the same independent candidate to get elected.

leaflets with Matt DC's grinning face on

???

The other key factor here is a whole new generation of voters who are too young to really remember living under a Tory government and with a vivid memory of everything Labour has fucked up.

This is true. You could be well into your early 20s by now and have no memory of Margaret Thatcher.

But people don't vote for independent candidates other than single issue campaigns (eg hospital closures) for most people it's a two way choice between labour and conservatives and for a few, liberals. To many people the colour of the government is more or less irrelevant in how it would impact their day to day life. Not that it's not a justification not to vote but that's the realpolitik of the current political climate.

Yes, that really hindered Tony Blair didn't it?

xpost precisely

And they had Brown and Prescott to assuage the old school.

Support maybe, approval debatable

O RLY?

And they had Brown and Prescott to assuage the old school.

Robin Cook, too.

Sounds familiar

I agree, though I don't think there's any "maybe" about it. I think the Nats will be the majority party for the next 5-10 years in Scotland and I can't see them waiting any longer than 3-4 years for a referendum on independence, which I think will sneak through.

England & Wales will thereafter be Tory run forever while Scotland has Lab/SNP bun fights every 4-5 years with added PR/coalition shenanigans.

"Adams' Grammar School is a state grammar school in Newport, Shropshire... Adams' is a selective state school, which admits both boarding and day pupils, and is a specialist technology college. The school, including the sixth form, has approximately 800 pupils (750 boys, 50 girls). The school educates only boys in Years 7 to 11 (ages 11 to 16), while the Sixth Form (ages 16 to 18) is mixed. The Haberdashers are still important in the running of the school: they provide some of the school's funding and have representatives in its governing body." (wikipedia)

(apologies -- carmody moment)

Until Wales splits off. Is that possible? Any Welsh people here?

this is what is so sickening about party politics and why I hate it so much, whilst simultaneosly keeping a foot firmly in the real world and appreciating that we have to play along with the concept as its the best we've got at the moment (whilst clearly not the *best we could have*).

I hate party politics precisely coz if I don't approve of someone, then I on't support them! And why? Because I am a free thinker not drone! The whole concept of party whips, of toeing the line and voting according to alliegence rather than individual conscious is diabolical! Politicians like that other group of slavish conformists, religious leaders, constantly put unity before justice and its bollocks!

Revsiting the can't be arsed vs not making a difference debate above I have come to the conclusion that it is a false dichotomy - many of the people who voice the "can't be arsed" are suffixing it with an unspoken "coz it won't make a difference".

for them to secure a swing back in "just like nulabour in 1997" they need the equiv of labour's party structure which they have not regenerated (the tory local-party membership remains largely OLD OLD OLD not to say DYING DYING DYING)

(FWIW i think this party activist bedrock aspect of brit politics is over for now: it may re-emerge, as it has somewhat post-dean in us leftish politics, but currently that version is nowehere)

not if you extend anti-corruption legislation to prevent them from doing this. I am also in favour of restricting the funding of polical campaigns so everything has to be done on the cheap. The only way to find out what a candidate thinks is to go to the hustings or speak to him or her on the doorstep. This would lead to a resurgence of interest in politics at a grassroots level and we wouldn't have to put up with those annoying party political broadcasts and patronising posters.*

(haha we would still have to put up w/ them on ILX arf!)

i don't want to sound completely cynical and pessimistic but seriously, not very much.

tom, what do you think, specifically?

The dogs will be off the leash, Blair is kept in check by Brown, tho there's no-one to keep Brown in check of course! So, NHS bye bye. Public spending bye bye. Public sector jobs bye bye.

How much is New Left Review in print format?

So there'll be nothing left for Cameron to wreck?

xpost to tom

of the nhs: kind of, yes.

xpost

old labour was a scrarific spectre for the south east in 1997: labour campaigning got round this, and i'm sure the tories will do the equivalent thing next time.

i think this is the fantasy of despair -- rooted in the secret fear that privatisation will sort of continue to look like it's working

but this isn't true in health or education -- in both cases the private sector can only deliver bcz it delivers to a selective customer base, not everyone: complete privitisation is the same as complete withdrawal of education and health provision to a significant social sector

i think what will happen will be a more and more byzantine (and secretly expensive) public-sector support system for the pseudo-invisible fallout of an expanding private set up (haha hullo even bigger despair)

it's not really "secret" but it takes place in the zone of "discussion of economics" which voters don't actually (understandably) want to bother their heads with

Questions relating to Scottish Independence:

what will happen to the Scottish MPs (both MPs who represent Scottish constituencies and those with Scottish nationality) in Westminster?

what will happen with regard to defence?

what will happen with regard to North Sea oil and gas?

will Scotland have to adopt its own currency or continuing using the one its got? As a smaller country the euro might become an attractive option? Is it SNP policy to adopt the euro eventually?

will Scotland get more money off the EU?

will people born in England currently resident in Scotland have dual nationality?

Polls in England show a larger majority in favour of independence... for Scotland, I mean

Scottish constituency MPs will be out, of course, so hello to Das 1000 Year Tory Reich, Englanders!

what will happen with regard to defence?

Well, the British Army will be fucked, that's for sure!

what will happen with regard to North Sea oil and gas?

It's ours! Ours do you hear!!!!!!!

will Scotland have to adopt its own currency or continuing using the one its got? As a smaller country the euro might become an attractive option? Is it SNP policy to adopt the euro eventually?

Euro I suspect

will Scotland get more money off the EU?

Bucketloads

will people born in England currently resident in Scotland have dual nationality?

How does work in Ireland?

Not a large majority, I don't have any references to hand but there's growing support for it (not to mention the whole anti-Scottish PM thing in the London press which has led to Unionist Tories advocating the break up of the union)

The elections are in May right?
Yes.

The SNP is likely to win, right?
They were a good 8-12 points ahead in the last polls I saw. With PR they're likely to need some help forming a majority government. There's talk of a Labour/Tory coalition to keep the Nats out and protect the Union! Whodathunkit?
How soon can they organise a referendum?

Questions relating to Scottish Independence:

what will happen to the Scottish MPs (both MPs who represent Scottish constituencies and those with Scottish nationality) in Westminster?
They will lose their jobs. Presumably the big hitters with Scotiish constituencies will look for Scottish parliament jobs

what will happen with regard to defence?
There won't really be any. SNP breakaway will get rid of the nuclear deterrent in Scotland and presumably withdraw from all UK forces. They don't see Scotland as needing defending in a military sense.

what will happen with regard to North Sea oil and gas?
Good question, Scotland doesn't really own what it thinks it owns. There will be huge fights over how the money and oil is divvied up.

will Scotland have to adopt its own currency or continuing using the one its got? As a smaller country the euro might become an attractive option? Is it SNP policy to adopt the euro eventually?
Yes, the Euro.

will Scotland get more money off the EU?
Don't know.

will people born in England currently resident in Scotland have dual nationality?
I presume so.

an open goal for ukip right there.

How soon can they organise a referendum?

They've said something along the lines of governing for a few years to convince people they're good at it and can be trusted so I think 4-6 years after taking over. Of course convincing people a government is good at governing is a huge problem and the policy could backfire on them.

I don't think any British citizen will be denied English residency/citizenship should the Union fall apart.

(viz a league of proto-autonomous regions wanting to flourish in the larger territory but to be shot of their colonial "neighbour" -- the basque-manx-kosovo-walloon entity)

(ps i know 0 abt walloon politix i just wanted to write the word "walloon")

note to self: you are a quarter scots you sossidge

Aye, why not, bring it on!

there is at least one and he is a duke in Bavaria.

Cosign

Are they going to get their own Royal Family back?

Ireland quite happy to have the positive associations of republican along with the negative, thanks.

A pound note, a kipper, a bottle of manx knobs and a third leg

They can have a few bits of the republic too for all I care.

what will happen to the Scottish MPs (both MPs who represent Scottish constituencies and those with Scottish nationality) in Westminster?

what will happen with regard to defence?

what will happen with regard to North Sea oil and gas?

will Scotland have to adopt its own currency or continuing using the one its got? As a smaller country the euro might become an attractive option? Is it SNP policy to adopt the euro eventually?

will Scotland get more money off the EU?

will people born in England currently resident in Scotland have dual nationality?"

With the proposed introduction of ID cards, biometric databases and tracking technology in cars, how will Scotland cope with mass immigration from England?

You mean HNIC?

take down?

So nearly a year later and he's still riding high (ahem). Can he do no wrong?

the passing of labour's hardwonned reputation for economic competency = lucky dave

Still not riding as high as he should be, in my opinion

... given the number of disasters (real, overhyped, imagined, invented) that have befallen (befell?) Brown since he took over

All things considered the Derek Conway thing appears to have got a disproportionate amount of press (more than Peter Hain maybe)? I'm wondering the extent to which it'll stick to Cameron and the Tories in general though.

I expect a few more Derek Conways to be unearthed in the coming weeks/months

the tories can't hammer labour much on funding coz they're funded by some shadowy billionaire working out of belize, right?

i think it's because conway's thing is so nakedly corrupt that it gets more press -- hain and harman's crimes were too complex to get over a front page.

According to Cameron, breaking the law is OK if it gets you places (viz. parents moving into different boroughs/pretending to have converted into religion X to fiddle it so that their kids get in the "right" school) so he doesn't really have moral justification for blasts against YOB BRITAIN since it's the same process, fundamentally.

Thing is, the general public don't give a shit about funding. They vote for whoever's likely to get their roof fixed sooner.

Also the most press seems to have come from the Mail and the Standard - they hate it all the more when it's one of their own.

(xpost - NEWS JUST IN: downloading MP3s from Slsk is the same process as murder!)

the tories can't hammer labour much on funding coz they're funded by some shadowy billionaire working out of belize, right?

Deeply silly of Tories to kick up a stink about funding/ lack of financial probity in any other political party

The Mail is still pro-Tory/anti-Cameronite, though, loosely.

The Sun still hasn't changed colours either, Murdoch must think he's still backing a winner with Brown.

Labour to scrape the next election, Brown to step down in 2011, David Blunkett to be next PM. Job done.

Cockfarmer gets a few things right here

And you have to feel sorry for David Cameron. He has spent two years hugging hoodies, huskies, Polly Toynbee and everyone else a good Tory would despise - all to convince us the Conservatives have changed. And in the flash of a camera, all those engaging images were swept from our minds, replaced by a more familiar picture of the party: snouts in troughs.

The Conway exposé is, I would argue, worse than those chalk-striped, on-the-make Tories of the Major years: their scandals tended to involve sex or private money. This is public bunce. There is nothing hypocritical about Tory lads done good, of course: making money is the party's creed and Derek is a believer. But no party that has banged on about benefit scroungers can afford an MP who is an allowance scrounger.

Umm, I mean this:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/portal/main.jhtml?xml=/portal/2008/01/31/ftconway131.xml&DCMP=ILC-traffdrv07053100

Please no to Blunkett.

Conway and Cameron had a history of mutual dislike and I'm sure the modernisers of the conservative party are glad to see the back of him.

Tom is right - you would expect him to be doing even better, I wonder if there's a peak to his popularity in that for some people no matter how useless the gov appears they won't vote for Cameron?

Blears - first homunculus to become Prime Minister

And you have to feel sorry for David Cameron.

I tried but no tears came.

Blood. Stone.

If Hazel gets to be PM then it'll Worzel as Chancellor JUST SAY NO

And you have to feel sorry for David Cameron.

http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/02_1/CameronEton2_468x420.jpg

Always wondered what became of Kissing The Pink.

I can never get tired of that photo (even if everyone can).

(self xxxp): it'll BE Worzel as Chancellor

I can never get tired of that photo (even if everyone can).

"Hans-Joachim Klein claimed to keep a picture of Holger Meins’ autopsy photo on him to reinforce his hatred for the West German “fascist” system"

Every time I see that photo, I keep thinking that #7 is Stephen Mangam.

The Government has the potential to get a lot more useless than it is already, and if the economy really goes tits up then the 'lol incompetants' stories will come thick and fast.

I have no idea how the electorate would take to a recession - they could take one look at Brown and go "hang on this is all your fault" or they could take one look at Cameron and go "erm he's a bit young isn't he?"

You could argue that the Labour landslide in 97 was actually aided by an improving economy under Kenneth Clarke in the mid-90s. The Tories' fuckups were fresh enough in the memory for the public to want revenge, but things were no longer so bad that the middle classes voting Labour seemed like an unnecessary risk. Obviously Blair helped a bit as well.

"Hans-Joachim Klein claimed to keep a picture of Holger Meins’ autopsy photo on him to reinforce his hatred for the West German “fascist” system"

I have this one...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/graphics/2005/10/13/thatcher/thatch15.jpg

(xpost - NEWS JUST IN: downloading MP3s from Slsk is the same process as murder!)

you look for your victim for several hours, then you find the victim and half way through killing your victim they disappear and you end up with nothing but some drips of blood.

You could argue that the Labour landslide in 97 was actually aided by an improving economy under Kenneth Clarke in the mid-90s. The Tories' fuckups were fresh enough in the memory for the public to want revenge, but things were no longer so bad that the middle classes voting Labour seemed like an unnecessary risk. Obviously Blair helped a bit as well.

-- Matt DC, Thursday, January 31, 2008 12:32 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Link

this is how the tory machine will spin it -- and the economy definitely was improving from the mid-90s.

how much that was big ken's work i don't know.

the labour machine can spin it that 'in a globalized interdependent economy' we're at the mercy of shit no single national government can do anything about.

which isn't a great message either -- if you can't take blame for the downswing, you can't claim credit for the good times either.

I have this one...

That one always cheers me up! (xp)

knock yourselves out

Q: mate, at this rate you are going to answer precisely 3 questions in your half an hour. how about you get on with it eh?

DC: Give me a break I am typing as fast as I can. there is quite alot of formatting stuff that the Guardian guys have to do so that it all comes out right. I'll take some more questions home with me and try and post some more answers later.....

could be the new Thatcher vs Mrs Gould

how long till thom yorke turns up f'ing and blinding all over the internet

Come back Max Gogarty, all is forgiven

Oh, like Yorke isn't a closet Tory.

How long until Cameron starts posting to ILX is what I want to know.

lol 1922 committee zing culture

babytalk gang vs monday club

That's a Venn diagram that appears to be just one circle

gimme 5

monday club has identifiable members

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/12/labour.gordonbrown1

^^ this is pretty strong meat coming from m. kettle, and yesterday polly toynbee wrote a similar 'ever get the feeling you've been cheated?' article too. with lickspittle loyalists like these...

If the growing mood in the Labour party is that Brown can't win against Cameron (which I still dispute), who exactly do they think is more likely to? The idea that Brown might go, either of his own volition or through a push, is batshit insane.

i don't know who they think could land an election within the labour party -- lol ed balls? -- but labour has needed 'middle england' votes to win. if they feel pinched financially because it turns out their house actually won't be worth a million quid as a result of them doing fuck-all and riding the boom years, labour have real troubs.

i also think it's too soon to say that cameron could win; his poll lead isn't that convincing, considering the sheer number of new labour fuck-ups. it was interesting that labour got a poll bounce when they nationalized norther rock.

well it was the obvious thing to do, the only thing stopping them was ideology

i agree with dc that there don't exaactly seem to be any labour heavyweights waiting in the wings

tony robinson!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

i agree with dc that there don't exaactly seem to be any labour heavyweights waiting in the wings

-- Tracer Hand, Saturday, 12 April 2008 17:22 (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

Straw, Blunkett. The former would be a much better choice than the latter.

straw as PM? i don't see it at ALL

and blunkett - i mean, please

Surely their problem is that by reshaping the party in their image, they don't have anyone else that isn't tainted by association. I can't see Brown winning against Cameron for the simple reason that they'll presumably hold the election off as long as possible now, and Labour can only get weaker between now and that day (he should have called it last summer - seemed a mistake not to even then, seems a giant folly with hindsight).

But then Major won 1992 so who knows...

i have a perverse admiration for straw's stalin-like man-in-the-corner staying-power.

dom -- blunkett cannot win in middle england, surely? and with his nobbing-posh-birds proclivities i dunno if his man-of-the-people thing will fly so well in the labour heartlands.

Didn't the polls bounce back because it was seen as some kind of resolution (mistake not to do it straightaway, must have been significant Labour fear (even after 10 years in power!) that the public suspected Labour just waiting to nationalize something)

(meaning resolution after it hanging around in the news for so long - did Labour think that somehow it wouldn't?)

http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/3742/imageuploadimagenm4.jpg

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it was nowhere near as straightforward last autumn as it might now appear. Also not at all sure he would have won but then at least Cammy would have had to deal with the economic situation. All this talk of heavyweights is pretty funny though, the tories have a complete fucking featherweight and it's not doing them any harm. All this fanciful as Brown is not going anywhere, he didn't go through all that crap with Blair to duck out early.

milliband ftw

He's a featherweight that people like though, as opposed to a featherweight they either hate or are bored by.

Straw as PM would be kind of hilarious, in a John Major/Ultra Magnus style 'becomes leader because everyone else has fallen by the wayside' way.

I can't believe I just made that analogy.

yeah, Major is Soundwave innit

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it was nowhere near as straightforward last autumn as it might now appear. Also not at all sure he would have won but then at least Cammy would have had to deal with the economic situation. All this talk of heavyweights is pretty funny though, the tories have a complete fucking featherweight and it's not doing them any harm. All this fanciful as Brown is not going anywhere, he didn't go through all that crap with Blair to duck out early.

-- Ned Trifle II, Saturday, 12 April 2008 17:56

Cam in terms of policies and substance is a lightweight, but not in terms of popularity, he's the only serious Tory contender for PM since '97.

Also the idea of replacing Brown really, really begs the question "Who on earth else then?" It's a bit weird since the whole of NuLab is in a post-Blair doldrums.

Not sure he would have won either - though re:hindsight - there's a thread on it here where consensus opinion at the time seemed to suggest it was his best chance. The fact that not just the predictable (economy) has gone badly but everything else has undoubtedly made things worse.

Maybe at the time they were concerned about winning with much reduced majority or hung parliament. It might have been better for Labour to have lost an 07 election, its likely public perception of Labour post 2010 will be similar to public perception of Tories post 1997. Blair's timing was impeccable

The Tories do have a featherweight leading them, and its not harming them at all - but they are the opposition, its only really when we come to actual election time that his credentials will really come under scrutiny

you're talking about cameron being a lightweight, but how was blair '97 a heavyweight? in a GE campaign the tories will rally -- for SE new labour voters they will have cuddly ken clarke; for the daily mail crew there's still david davies. and then there's media guys like hague. that reads funny, but hague is more charismatic than, you know, hazel blears or ed balls.

i don't think i'm being unduly scaremongery -- mainly because new labour only have themselves to blame.

Isn't any MP in a party that has been out of power for many years going to be a lightweight? Therefore when the party in power looks to have hit the end of the road, it doesn't matter if the opposition leader seems lightweight, its inbuilt that thats going to be the case. Cameron may be more electable than Hague or some of the other inbetween guys we've forgotten about now - but I'd bet a Hague Tory party would take a 2010 election over Brown also

The problem Labour has is why doesn't it have any big hitters when its the incumbent party.

(that is - if he hadnt already been around before. longevity is a weakness in the end)

Brown also has the disadvantage of being "a tiny dot on this world".

but I'd bet a Hague Tory party would take a 2010 election over Brown also

I'd take that bet.

I think i was misinterpreted upthread. What i'm saying is you don't need to be a heavyweight to win an election. People don't even particulary like heavyweights, so maybe the Labour party should look further afield. I can't see it would do any harm. Anyway this isn't goin to happen, Brown will stick it out and drag the party down with him the stubborn ol bastard.

zoinks another guardian group new labour diehard puts in the knife:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/13/labour.gordonbrown

if u want to have a really boring time, see any rawnsley article 1997-2007: every single one was about the blair-brown rivalry that was about to fuck everything up, and of course it never did.

all the same this feels different, mainly because labour could not have lost in 2001 or 2005; it is at least 'theirs to lose' now.

But isn't Rawnsley kind of a shill for Cameron?

srsly? i hadn't thought so.

Well, he was the first person on the Obs to pick up on him as a potential leader, so perhaps journo canard of 'picking the winner' is coming before an affiliation I've never really seen as explicit in the first place?

i'm open to the idea -- i just figured his main connects were with new labour people, as with the ex-cabinet minister he quotes. i think he must have been close to blair and brown ten years ago anyway, but i haven't been paying enough attention maybe. either way for the obs and guardian to do three 'brown = fucked' articles in three days is something unusual.

You're reading too much into this - the Graun/Obs ran regular 'Blair = fucked' articles for about two years and occasionally on particularly bad weeks from about 2002 onwards.

Rawnsley's whole trick as a political journalist is never to reveal what he actually thinks about an issue*, ever. He's been close to NuLab for over a decade because they were in power (or on the verge of it) so of course he's going to be farming Cameronite contacts now.

It's actually incredibly effective when you think about it in terms of getting politicians to tell you things, and he's very good at knowing which way the wind is blowing - hence picking out Cameron early. Although not THAT early seeing as Cameron and Osbourne had been singled out as rising stars ages ago and everyone knew the Tories were desperate for someone with a bit of charisma after Michael Howard.

*The one exception I can think of is when he tore into Blair for backtracking over an elected House of Lords in about 2003, I remember being surprised about that at the time. Anyway I'd much rather Rawnsley's brand of political journalism than another Toynbee or Kettle or whoever trying to convince me I should give a shit about their opinion.

Labour are 7% down in the polls...

-- Edward Trifle (Ned Trifle IV), Friday, 2 February 2007 09:20 (1 year ago) Link

Heady days...

Rawnsley is a bit like Jackie Ashley in that he is too much of an Insider with New Labour -- not in terms of his Opinions but just everything he writes: '"It's hopeless", a senior source groaned to me last week', etc. What I mean is, both of them trade on Gossip and 'personality' (ie not-very-interesting 'personalities' of the politicians) and have little to say about Policy. It's Politics as endless maneouvring rather than any real ideas or purpose.

I think Polly Toynbee is different: she has strong views about actual things in the world, policies, processes etc, rather than pseudo-personalities, and goes out and bats for them. I have often been impressed by how many different issues she seems to know a lot about. And there are some, like childcare provision or the anti-child-poverty campaign for instance, where she specializes and is passionate.

To praise or defend Toynbee will look silly or disreputable or whatever to some - so be it. I don't think she is the same as the others. I like her. I think a lot of people actually working every day in eg health, education, childcare issues, etc, like her too.

Kettle, btw, I think is a scumbag - a terrible opportunist, a revolting character (as far as one can tell from his writing), and also given to predictions which often turn out to be plain wrong, but which of course he never acknowledges.

I keep reading this as "Can anything stop Cam'ron from becoming the next PM?"

I don't think I disagree with much of what JA says here -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/14/gordonbrown.labour
- but again, most of it demonstrates the problem mentioned above: gossip, all about perceptions and infighting - very little sense of issues out there that are worth talking about.

I don't think anything can save Cameron from becoming the next PM, unless we discover he's spent £40,000 on hookers, or something similar. Brown had his chance and he blew it and his position is not recoverable. Loss of nerve has been his Achilles heel since forever. He could have killed off Blair years before, but he didn't. He could have held an election last autumn and he would have won it, but he didn't. The one hope for Labour might be if Livingstone loses the mayoral election and there's a backbench revolt and Brown is replaced. But I don't see that happening, and even if it did it probably wouldn't be enough to stop Cameron.

the question there is who would replace him?

Exactly. So I guess it won't happen. But if I were a Labour MP in even a vaguely marginal seat, I'd be strenuously making plans for a post-political career.

Because decapitating your party and installing a new leader after less than a year out of blind panic REALLY plays well with the voters. Especially when you were the ones who let him into office unopposed in the first place. They'd be taken apart in the press.

Also, forget about polls and look at crude electoral mechanics - how big is Labour's majority, how big a swing would there need to be to the Tories to grant them an outright majority, and do we think Cameron has enough of the edge to achieve that swing? I still don't quite see it.

Next Labour leader odds:

David Miliband 3/1
Ed Balls 4/1
Alan Johnson 6/1
Jack Straw 7/1
James Purnell 8/1
John Denham 10/1
Yvette Cooper 12/1
Andy Burnham 14/1
Harriet Harman 14/1
Ed Miliband 16/1
Jon Cruddas 16/1
Douglas Alexander 20/1
Geoff Hoon 20/1
Hilary Benn 20/1
Caroline Flint 25/1
John Hutton 25/1
Charles Clarke 50/1
Jacqui Smith 50/1
John Reid 50/1
Ruth Kelly 50/1
Alistair Darling 100/1
Frank Field 100/1
Hazel Blears 100/1

Surely the Blairite succession plan, was get Brown in,; make him look like a tit; replace him with a Milliband.

<i>Because decapitating your party and installing a new leader after less than a year out of blind panic REALLY plays well with the voters.</i>

Well yeah, it would be a desperate measure, but desperate times etc.

<i>Also, forget about polls and look at crude electoral mechanics - how big is Labour's majority, how big a swing would there need to be to the Tories to grant them an outright majority</i>

The swing against Labour in the last election was 5.5%, under more propitious economic circumstances, and with the Tories fielding a has-been leader. I haven't done the maths but I imagine a similar swing in the next election would put the Tories in the driving seat.

Is there a website with handy information about bi-election results over the past few years? I was thinking about this thread and this whole debate yesterday evening, and comparing it to the years up to 1997, when the Tories' majority really was down to a sliver because Labour were routinely winning bi-election seats off them.

Is this happening this time around? Is there any evidence so far of Cameron hurting Brown at the parliamentary ballot box? Have there been enough bi-elections to surmise anything useful from this? Also when/if Labour have been losing bi-elections, have they been falling to the Tories or the LibDems/SNP?

Ah, spelling by-election the right way might help.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_by-elections

It looks like the Tories haven't taken a seat off anyone at a 'bi'-election since 1982!

Haha a quick scan of that says Labour won more by-election seats from the Tories before 1992 than they did before 1997, so maybe I shouldn't read too much into this. Still its been a while since the Tories took a seat directly off Labour in a by-election. But that may be Labour's luck in not having a marginal seat come up, and Gwynneth Dunwoody's looks pretty safe.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

If you go to the make your prediction section of this you can try fiddling with the vote for each party and find out how it would likely translate into seats.

Hung parliament with the LibDems holding the balance of power then?

David Cameron is storming towards a massive Tory win at the next general election, sweeping aside over 130 Labour MPs.

An exclusive News of the World ICM poll today reveals the Tory leader would get a NINE PER CENT swing—the same as Tony Blair won with in 1997.

The findings will put the Prime Minister under massive pressure—and mean that FOUR Cabinet ministers would lose their seats.

The last time we ran our rule over the 145 marginal seats six months ago the results SCARED him so much he called off an early general election at the last minute.

Then, in October, our ICM poll found Labour would lose 49 of the key seats.

Now the number of predicted Labour losses has MORE THAN DOUBLED to a staggering ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY ONE SEATS.

It would give the Tories a healthy 64-seat majority and would see FOUR Labour Cabinet ministers booted out of the Commons.

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/2704_poll.shtml

The poll shows ALISTAIR DARLING (majority 7,242), Home Secretary JACQUI SMITH (2,716), Business Secretary JOHN HUTTON (6,037) and Transport Secretary RUTH KELLY (2,064) would all lose their seats.

Every cloud, and all that.

People are mad.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/images/homepage/2704_poll_graphic_01.jpg

They think that Cameron would be better at 'dealing with the cost of living' (?) but not 'dealing with the credit crunch'? They think he would be better at 'modernising the NHS'? I mean, how do they think he would be better? By doing more of the same?

Also headline ofTories are winning the war of ideasnot backed up by actual ideas.

I think that story might be overshadowed by the tory Lords sex party...
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/images/homepage/2704_laidlaw_01.jpg

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/25/labour

feeling ^^

'Hacked off' Cameron has his bike stolen

A shop worker told the paper: "He was embarrassed and a bit annoyed. He was going round talking to people asking them if they had seen it - most people didn't recognise him."

Remarkable that he was even able to get his bike into Portobello Road at that time of day, especially at Tesco's.

Tomorrow: CAMERON SAYS GAS A HOODIE - DRAMATIC TORY POLICY SEA CHANGE

Onlooker Gary Yankee...

Wha'?

I hate bloody bike thieves but I'm prepared to give this one a free pass.

He wouldn't have had this trouble if he lived somewhere ordinary and decent like Walthamstow rather than poncey North Ken.

The poll shows ALISTAIR DARLING (majority 7,242), Home Secretary JACQUI SMITH (2,716), Business Secretary JOHN HUTTON (6,037) and Transport Secretary RUTH KELLY (2,064) would all lose their seats.

I used to live in Darling's seat. I know there have been boundary changes since I lived there that have upped the Tory vote (bits of Malcolm Rifkind's old pre-97 seat), but I'm still not convinced that if he lost it it would be to the Tories.

The Conservative leader was reported to have chained the bike to a short bollard, allowing the thief to lift it clear

Derbrain.

Policeman: "Now, Mr Cameron, how do you usually secure your bicycle?"
Cameron: "Bollards"
Policeman: "Now there's no need to take that tone, sir!"

New Tory initiatives to relieve prison overcrowding include dropping prisoners outside the gates and asking them to just wait there for a few days.

Asked if there was CCTV in the area, he said: "That's not something we would discuss on the theft of a bike.

? !

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

shame he didn't have a work laptop on the bike with all the addresses of tory members

Maybe these shorts will be the deal-breaker with middle England.

http://fashion.mirror.co.uk/css/cameron%27s-shorts.jpg

http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00541/SNN2902A-280_541102a.jpg

friend of mine was wearing similar shorts on saturday except they were purple (maybe he's going UKIP)

What newspaper is he reading?

mail or express innit

Don't think so, maybe a local paper, where is he?

headline is COUNCIL Tsomething WILL COST US something

Cornishman, I think.

maybe not.

"Council Tax will cost us" etc...

http://www.thisiscornwall.co.uk/homepagenews/Council-logo-cost-500-000/article-239588-detail/article.html probably.

Labour are 7% down in the polls,

-- Edward Trifle (Ned Trifle IV), Friday, 2 February 2007 09:20 (1 year ago) Bookmark Link

Oh those were the days

http://www.thisiscornwall.co.uk/images/274077/sitemastheadimage.jpg

it is a pretty shit logo for £500,000 to be fair
http://estb.msn.com/i/36/AE1E9D5FE1C3B3A5E57E5990D36B5A.Jpeg

BBC News now reporting the Tories have dropped their pledge to match Labour spending plans for 2010/11. This could be a big moment.

Seriously if I was George Osborne I would just stfu and pretend I didn't exist for six months but it appears that's not on the cards.

isn't he a traet?

The media have finally cottoned onto the fact that nothing sticks to Cameron, everything sticks to Osborne, and with the economy at centre stage he's having everything thrown at him. It's also very enjoyable watching him squirm.

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/11/cameron-we-will.html

^^^Your rank and file actually hate Osborne more than the left does.

Do they really call him 'Ozzie'?!

(Cameron) said Labour's spending plans were based on "heroic assumptions" about Britain's prospects for economic recovery.

Is this praising by faint damnation?

So what is Cameron's alternative? Serious question. Apart from finding some nice aliterative sounbites - "A £30 billion Borrowing Bombshell!" and not putting adverts for social workers in the Guardian?

"...a borrowing binge...a spending splurge..."

I think we all know what his alternative is. It's a lurch to the right dressed up as economic prudence.

I fully expect Gordon Brown to make a similar lurch at some point btw, once people have stopped looking as closely. There's still been relatively little discussion about where exactly all this money is going to come from and it's naive to assume there won't be major job losses across the public sector.

So what is Cameron's alternative?

Cameron and his team hard at work trying to weave Baby P into any attack on Brown's spending proposals

major job losses across the public sector

Leading to extra savings on advertising in the Guardian. Clever.

"We pay our writers the lowest salary of all national newspapers - and pass the savings on to you!"

In fairness to The Guardian, they did run that advert for a new admin worker for the BNP.

You are obsessed. It's not natural.

What Guardian writers fail to realise is that ILx is entertainment, not the Council of Trent.

Jol out.

Keane out morelike.

Has Osborne even been to White Hart Lane this season?

I know they just beat Blackburn but me and Grout and some corrugated iron could probably beat Blackburn at the moment.

"We pay our writers the lowest salary of all national newspapers - and pass the savings on to you!"

Bullshit. Guardian pays extremely good rates.

Times, Torygraph and Indy all pay more and you get to keep copyright to boot.

Also if you work for the Times they let you kick a ball in their street.

(It's actually the Independent and the Desmond papers that pay the worst, for salaried staff at any rate, by quite a margin).

Also if Desmond doesn't like you he makes you stand on the roof of the Express Newspapers building for four days. Sans cagoule.

Sans cagoule.

A revolutionary trainspotter

Latest MORI figures:

CONSERVATIVES 40% (-5)
LABOUR 37% (+7)
LIB DEMS 12% (-2)

Which would, translated into polling, lead to a) a hung parliament and b) a near total wipeout of the LDs.

a) Good, I'm fed up of untrammelled power for Thatchers and Blairs
b) LOL

But with the few remaining Lib Dem MPs potentially with government-forming powers.

x-post

But with the few remaining Lib Dem MPs potentially with government-forming powers.

― Neil S, Tuesday, 18 November 2008 13:56 (53 seconds ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

If it were a matter of being 6 or 7 seats short of a majority, surely the DUP would be kingmakers? Ian Paisley for Culture Secretary, imo.

'S all right, we'll have Vince Cable and a few of the others

Would the LDs hold out for PR or has that been washed away with the rest of their principles?

They never got anywhere near getting what they wanted when they last propped up a government, so they can whistle dixie

Blimey @ those poll figures. Expect blind panic to break out on the Tory backbenches any minute now.

Wee Gideon's coat's on a shaky nail

Cameron really, really dropped a bollock in September with his response to the finance markets collapsing.

That response being "nothing"

What could a shiny faced City boy like Cameron (or Osborne) do?

That poll lead will widen again as unemployment continues to rise, but the worry for Cameron will be that public faith in the Tories as a credible alternative government is ebbing away.

Cameron has basically bet his political future on Brown's "Keynes V.20" policies not leading us out of a recession by the next election. Which is interesting, being as nearly every other major western nation is also getting Keynesy.

have we had a 'who should replace brown as labour leader' thread?

Not since he saved the world

What would be the point?

xpost

Alistair Darling has started dropping words like 'efficiency' - what's going first then?

The favourites for next leader of either party make for interesting viewing (interesting = oh fuck off not him/her!)

Tory:
William Hague 2
Boris Johnson 5
George Osborne 5
Liam Fox 16
Chris Grayling 20
Nick Herbert 25
David Davis 25

Labour:
Harriet Harman 3
David Miliband 7/2
Jon Cruddas 8
Alan Johnson 8
James Purnell 10
Jack Straw 12
John Denham 16
E Miliband 20
Ed Balls 20
A Milburn 25

William Hague 2

Er, what? Is that for real?

Jon Cruddas 8

Wow, that's good news

jack straw??! god almighty.

I'd rather have Straw than...just about everybody else on that list

Boris at 5/1 is just the bookies laughing all the way to the bank, surely?

William Hague 2

Er, what? Is that for real?

― grimly fiendish

Odds taken from oddschecker.com - it's a Ladbrokes book that I can't access without registering but oddschecker is usually very current.

Straw would only be next Labour leader in case of total meltdown, say a Tory majority of 100+ seats. He'd be a steady hand during a rebuild.

I'll say it here categorically now: if Cruddas becomes next Labour party leader, I will join the Labour Party and actively canvas for them. A truly great politician with some sensible and workable ideas for bridging the unfairness gaps in this nation.

xxxp

I'd rather have Straw than...just about everybody else on that list

Can't parse this any other way than "bonghits", tbh.

You know that it in Magical Mystery Tour, where Buster Bloodvessel (Ivor Cutler) stands at the top of the aisle, and tells the travellers that "everyone is to enjoy themselves, within the bounds of common british decency" ?

That's Jack Straw as Prime Minister.

okthxbye

Liam Fox 16

LOL. Tories must be praying that DC doesn't get hit by a bus one night while cycling home to Notting Hill.

The general feeling in the Tory party is that Hague is the best leader they have had since thatcher he just lead 10 years too soon, make of this what you will.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2533771/tory-leadership-odds.thtml

This is OTM from the comments:
The problem with these kind of lists is that you get to see just how devoid of talent the Tory party is.

You've got a man who has previously failed in the position as favourite (which is like Newcastle constantly bringing back Kevin Keegan as manager and expecting different results)

Problem with Dom's promise is that people who give a fuck about ideas for bridging the unfairness gaps in this nation are a tiny wee minority of Labour 2.0 hence Cruddas = next to no chance

But now we're all living in 1948 again, it might be possible

The world is going to have to get a lot, lot worse before people start voting for crazy ideas like economic fairness.

Cruddas has apparently built a proper PLP coalition though amongst backbenchers... forget where I saw the article outlining this.

xxp

The bookies obv. thing he has some chance

Bookies base their odds on how the betting is going. Remember Cruddas won the first round of deputy leadership votes last year so he has a significant (but still minority) support within the party.

David Davis was on Desert Island Discs on Sunday. Among his choices was "Another Day In Paradise" by top Tory philanthropist Phil Collins.

Did he have any Kinks in there?

"Dead End Street" - to symbolise the path his career is taking

We're all going to be so disappointed when Miliband gets it.

I persist in the hope that he blew it (David Davis style) over the summer

He also picked "Get The Party Started" by Pink because it reminds him of his daughter.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44740000/jpg/_44740953_dd_466getty.jpg

DD ride, anyone?

(Actually: I'll pass, if it's OK by you.)

Also, Cameron tottering on his pedestal and Clegg leading the Lib Dems towards oblivion gives me a small hope that the days of the Blairclone might be over - unlikely, I admit

No chance for Professor Out Of Vision On Lookylikey Milliband at the moment.

They can't both be DD.

xxxxpost

I don't think either of them are, the one on the right is hiding william hague and a beach football under her shirt.

i swear i knew the one on the right. she didn't strike me as a tory when i knew her. or have as large breasts

xps
Phil Collins denied he was a tory on Room 101. I didn't believe him.

DD's full list.

1. Pachelbel's Canon in D Major
2. Get the Party Started - Pink
3. Another Day in Paradise - Phil Collins
4. Ashokan Farewell - Ungar and Mason
5. Un Bel Di from Madame Butterfly - Puccini
6. Stealing my Democracy - Mundy-Turner
7. Brothers in Arms - Dire Straits
8. Main Theme from Schindler's List

I admit that the Mundy-Turner was new to me but what a lyrical masterpeice it is...

I’m as angry as I can be, ‘cause you made such a fool out of me
You dragged me into an illegal war,
Lied about what we’d be fighting for,
So how can I believe in you anymore?

CHORUS (You’re) Stealing my Democracy, Cutting Back on Freedom,
Stealing my Democracy, A little more each day

Well you made yourself some handy laws, so you don’t have to listen to me anymore
I can march in thousands through these city streets, singing about common sense and peace
And you can arrest me without a release
CHORUS

I’m sick of your media spin, papering over the mess we’re in
You say it’s all about what the terrorists do,
But who in the world will protect me from you?
Will anything worthwhile be left when you’re through?
CHORUS

My parents fought for humanity, not this facade you’re selling me
They bought me the right to disagree with you and anything you do

One day I’ll get you out, and there’ll be an end to this fear and doubt
I hope to heaven that I can find someone with the good of the people in mind, Someone who believes in peace in our time, instead of
Stealing my democracy….

Wot, no "Yesterday Man"?

That Pink song is about taking ecstasy isn't it? DAVIES IN DRUG SONG SHOCKA!!!

hmm, how about disrupting the state opening of parliament like some kind of rag-week toffs?

(or, whatever it is today)

Shouldn't they be protesting outside Scotland Yard instead, since it seems to have been the Met who authorised Green's arrest?

http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2008/12/cameron-obama-europe-president

Sweet!

That article piles it on a bit heavily in the second half so I'm kind of dubious about it.

Okay I wouldn't normally do this but:

david skitmore
05 December 2008 at 07:10

Cameron's a lightweight!!! and Obama's a great fantastic brilliant world statesman. The left do so love their leaders, it will all end in disappointment. Obama will end up another washout left-wing politician just like president Mugabe.

LOLz

That article piles it on a bit heavily in the second half so I'm kind of dubious about it

Yeh, but I really want to believe it, all the same.

what in the living fuck is this

http://www.chickyog.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/zanulabour-231x300.png

Tory call for anarchy?

Clapped out E-head who gets pranked by fake internet reports more than Animal Collective fans has opinions4u, story at 10.

"oo, where can I get one of those cooool masks?"

That'll be a 20 point lead now then.

Cynical? Moi?

he probably hired the steven lawrence killers to do it.