Kosovo Declares Independence From Serbia

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From CNN:

PRISTINA, Kosovo (CNN) -- Kosovo has formally declared its independence from Serbia and become the world's newest state in a move opposed by Serbia and Russia but backed by many western governments.

Lawmakers in the legislature of the former Serbian province approved the declaration of independence at an extraordinary session Sunday afternoon. It was read out in Albanian, Serbian and English by prime minister Hashim Thaci before the approval of state symbols including Kosovar's new national flag and anthem.

Thaci said that Kosovo was an "independent and democratic" state, adding: "From this day onwards, Kosovo is proud, independent and free."

Good news? Bad news? Any ILXors in the region? Failing that, policy/geography/history wonks? Are we optimistic? A part of me always gets a little misty-eyed when these things happen; am I naive?

Doctor Casino, Sunday, 17 February 2008 15:31 (eighteen years ago)

i'm a scottish nationalist. of course i'm optimistic!

but brr, it's an optimism heavily tempered by the weight of history.

grimly fiendish, Sunday, 17 February 2008 15:36 (eighteen years ago)

RIP East Timor ;_;

The Reverend, Sunday, 17 February 2008 15:38 (eighteen years ago)

So glad that we solved all those problems by bombing them in '99.

dowd, Sunday, 17 February 2008 16:35 (eighteen years ago)

^this

I know, right?, Sunday, 17 February 2008 16:39 (eighteen years ago)

i dunno if this would have happened were it not for the 1999 intervention. i dunno if the good doctor has a personal connection to kosovo or albania, but i have no idea what this declaration of 'independence' means, except in terms of europe vs russia power-politics.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Sunday, 17 February 2008 16:57 (eighteen years ago)

My local bar is run by an awesome Kosovar and is the official meeting place for Kosovars in the city so it's tempting to join in the enthusiasm, but, really, this is pretty awful news. At a period where policy is being played out on a regional level, the continuing proliferation of micro-states, esp. in Europe, is pretty depressing.

baaderonixx, Sunday, 17 February 2008 18:03 (eighteen years ago)

I am pleased that people in Pristina seem so happy, and it's kind of nice to see an outburst of pro-American feeling for a change. But I fear that no good will come of this - the Serbs feel constantly humiliated and they have long memories. The idea that this is a just punishment for Serbia I don't like. A state isn't a right or a reward, it's the organisation that monopolises control over a territory, and whatever has been declared today isn't it. I don't see an enlightened Kosovar entity emerging here. It would have been better to muddle through until both Serbia and Kosovo could be subsumed into the EU, I think. The issue wouldn't have gone away, but it might have mattered less in time.

Ismael Klata, Sunday, 17 February 2008 22:47 (eighteen years ago)

Mafia-run puppet state/military base of western empire. Typical divide-and-conquer strategy against those not within the empire (Serbia, Russia). Lots of weirdness involving relationship between CIA-backed KLA and Osama bin Laden. Look forward to more Russia/EU+US tension, possible ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, etc etc

Gavin, Sunday, 17 February 2008 23:08 (eighteen years ago)

From the Beeb:

Limitations of independence

The declaration approved by Kosovo's parliament contains limitations on Kosovan independence as outlined in Mr Ahtisaari's plan.

Kosovo, or part of it, cannot join any other country. It will be supervised by an international presence. Its armed forces will be limited and it will make strong provisions for Serb minority protection.

In addition to this, they said on NPR that the EU will have the ability to strike down any piece of legislation deemed undemocratic. It seems they are really taking steps to make sure that this doesn't spin off-course, at least internally.

The Reverend, Monday, 18 February 2008 02:01 (eighteen years ago)

I spent a good portion of the last year living in Belgrade, and I really can't see this decision ending well. It is yet another reason for many Serbs to feel (partly justifiably) victimised by the west. This will just drive what is right now a reasonably stable and moderate democracy back towards extremism, and a nationalist ruled Serbia with a weak but independent Kosovo next door will almost certainly end in bloodshed of some kind.

I feel that the only real way to resolve this issue was to stop treating the Serbs as pariahs and encourage them along the path of moderate politics and integration with the EU that they have followed for the last few years. That may still be possible, but it will be much harder.

jng, Monday, 18 February 2008 02:19 (eighteen years ago)

Also, this growing idea that any ethnically/linguistically homogeneous minority can only strive in its own national state needs to stop.

baaderonixx, Monday, 18 February 2008 09:35 (eighteen years ago)

yeah but when you're an homogeneous minority group in the balkans it's just kind of the thing to do.

Cosmo Vitelli, Monday, 18 February 2008 09:43 (eighteen years ago)

foreign powers stake their claim in the matter.

Cosmo Vitelli, Monday, 18 February 2008 10:27 (eighteen years ago)

Apparently Serbia's government is threatening to suspend diplomatic relations with anyone who recognises Kosova. And they might cancel their EU accession process. OMG I am so frightened.

My real fear is for the Eurovision.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Monday, 18 February 2008 13:19 (eighteen years ago)

Also, this growing idea that any ethnically/linguistically homogeneous minority can only strive in its own national state needs to stop.

you are right, this is the path of madness, but I think in this case the argument is that Serbia effectively alienated itself from Kosova by repeatedly smashing it up and oppressing its people. I will wait and see whether this interesting new principle of international law is applied elsewhere, but being realistic it is hard to see how Kosova could have been reintegrated into the Serbian state.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Monday, 18 February 2008 13:21 (eighteen years ago)

yah they are breaking off from serbia here you can hardly blame them right.

lol further balkanization of the balkans.

jhøshea, Monday, 18 February 2008 13:24 (eighteen years ago)

yeah but when you're an homogeneous minority group in the balkans it's just kind of the thing to do.

there is a certain truth to this, but not all countries in the Balkans, or even the former Yugoslavia, are ethnically homogenous.

Serbia - significant minority of ethnic Hungarians (who remain placid and reasonably reconciled to the Serbian state, as far as I can make out). Serbia also has the usual Roma, Jewish, and some other funny minorities.

Macedonia - significant minority of ethnic Albanians. While the country looked like it might blow up a couple of years ago, it seems to have managed to stay together.

Bosnia-Herzegovina - it remains a mini-Yugoslavia, albeit one completely cantonised internally, and no one could really say that BH is anything other than a lolstate.

I understand that Serbians and Montenegrans also live on both sides of their country's border.

One interesting thing I have heard about the former Yugoslavia is that market forces mean that Croatia is re-acquiring a Serbian minority, which is nice.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Monday, 18 February 2008 13:27 (eighteen years ago)

yah they are breaking off from serbia here you can hardly blame them right.

I think they are following the "see you around suckers" model of secesison that Montenegro pioneered.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Monday, 18 February 2008 13:28 (eighteen years ago)

Mafia-run puppet state/military base of western empire. Typical divide-and-conquer strategy against those not within the empire (Serbia, Russia). Lots of weirdness involving relationship between CIA-backed KLA and Osama bin Laden. Look forward to more Russia/EU+US tension, possible ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, etc etc

-- Gavin, Sunday, February 17, 2008 11:08 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark Link

oh boo-hoo poor russia and serbia ;_;

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Monday, 18 February 2008 13:31 (eighteen years ago)

serbians and montenegrins have been pretty closely linked over the years though?

and vojvodina may have hungarian minority but is majorly serb, its a pretty different case to kosovo!

laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 13:35 (eighteen years ago)

I'm not saying it isn't; I was just correcting the idea that the Balkans consists of ethnically homogenous microstates.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Monday, 18 February 2008 14:36 (eighteen years ago)

Until Montenegros independence it was a pretty good example of a potential microstate that seemed ok with being part of a larger whole. vojvodina seems kind of a different kettle of fish (closer to the hungarian minority in western romania - both seem, as far as i know at least, pretty ok with status quo?)

laxalt, Monday, 18 February 2008 15:12 (eighteen years ago)

From what I gathered during about a month spent in the Balkans, ethnic Serbs, Montenegrans, Croatians and Bosnians are from exactly the same stock. Even their languages are remarkably similar, more like dialects thsn actual separate tongues. There is a lot of worrying nationalism in that part of the world, much of it founded on percieved differences that aren't really there.

chap, Monday, 18 February 2008 15:27 (eighteen years ago)

oh boo-hoo poor russia and serbia ;_;

Right, further alienating Serbia and Russia is really what we need in Europe right now.

I understand that after what went on 10 years ago, it was pretty difficult to expect Kosovars to agree in any way to rejoin a Yugoslavia that by 2008, everybody had already left. On the other hand, Europeans and Americans trying to portray this as the victory of freedom and self-determination are really setting themselves up for a lot of future headaches. Hello Republics of Transnistria and Abkhazian. Hello Flanders and Wallonia. Let's wait 10 years and even these tiny states won't be homogeneous enough and will have to be broken further down...

baaderonixx, Monday, 18 February 2008 15:33 (eighteen years ago)

Coming in 2015: the United Empire of Baaderonixa (size: 1 flat; population: 1.)

Stuff like this is one of Woodrow Wilson's more pernicious legacies (among others).

Ned Raggett, Monday, 18 February 2008 15:34 (eighteen years ago)

Even their languages are remarkably similar, more like dialects thsn actual separate tongues.

I know all about the former Yugoslavia. They all speak Serbo-Croat, but pretend to have different languages. The Kosovars do at least speak a different language to their Slavic neighbours.

Hello Flanders and Wallonia.

I suspect that Belgium will stand or fall regardless of what happens in Kosovo.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Monday, 18 February 2008 15:42 (eighteen years ago)

the u.s., britain and france have now recognized kosovo as an independent state

it would have been nice if they'd done the same with the elected spanish govt of 1936; we might have avoided a little thing called fascist genocide but eh you know, can't win em all

Tracer Hand, Monday, 18 February 2008 18:19 (eighteen years ago)

Yeah, Stanley Baldwin and his cabinet really dropped the ball on that one. I won't be voting for those jokers again.

chap, Monday, 18 February 2008 18:23 (eighteen years ago)

'lolstate'

Australia recognlsed Kosovo too. Now I have to buy new atlases again.

Autumn Almanac, Monday, 18 February 2008 21:46 (eighteen years ago)

it would have been nice if they'd done the same with the elected spanish govt of 1936; we might have avoided a little thing called fascist genocide but eh you know, can't win em all

-- Tracer Hand, Monday, February 18, 2008 6:19 PM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Link

what the hell kind of parallel is this?

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Monday, 18 February 2008 21:48 (eighteen years ago)

i don't know nearly enough about the region to snark appropriately one way or another, but the level of hostility to baby Kosovo is a little strange on its face. self determination is a bitch, huh? the country is called "Serbia," and they're not Serbs, so, what's the problem?

why are "microstates" a problem, anyway. states...that are small! oh no!

gff, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:01 (eighteen years ago)

I don't get this either. Serbs worldwide are claiming to be devastated by this. Is it because Serbs feel they and Kosovars are ethnically the same group?

Autumn Almanac, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:18 (eighteen years ago)

Because the idea that every ethnic faction deserves self-determination as an independent state, taken to its extreme, would result in a lot of microstates that don't have diverse enough resources for their tiny economies to be stable, and don't necessarily have the population or resources to govern or protect themselves adequately -- beyond which the independence of the new state is not guaranteed to do anything to lessen whatever tensions or violence led it to be created, and may even exacerbate them. (Eritrea and Ethiopia, for instance, have been either at war or working to undermine one another ever since Eritrea's independence.)

Less practically, but maybe more importantly, I think they bum some of us out because they represent a loss of faith in the ideal of working pluralistic societies -- that at some point of tension or violence we basically give up and decide that a given ethnically diverse nation-state is just not plausible and it's some kind of positive development to just throw borders around everyone.

nabisco, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:21 (eighteen years ago)

That was an x-post, and not at all specific to this -- just outlining why some people do not see it as an unmitigated good when a given group seizes the self-determination flag and goes independent.

(P.S. None of that is meant to minimize or deny the fact that plenty of groups and ethnic minorities are ridiculously ill-served, exploited, or ignored by the central governments they're ostensibly a part of, and there is every reason for them to hope that autonomy and self-determination will make things a hell of a lot better)

nabisco, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:24 (eighteen years ago)

I don't get this either. Serbs worldwide are claiming to be devastated by this. Is it because Serbs feel they and Kosovars are ethnically the same group?

No, its because Kosovo is the historic heart of Serbia. It's was the centre of their medieval kingdom, and it contains the most important religious sites to the Serbian Orthodox church.

Whether that is a good reason to stake a claim over an area is obviously debatable, but the reaction is understandable.

jng, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:28 (eighteen years ago)

Ah cool, thanks.

Autumn Almanac, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:29 (eighteen years ago)

i know this might be an unpopular and even controversial opinion but i remember noticing while watching ethnic albanians flee kosovo a decade ago how much better dressed and generally more put together they were than the serbs. so this is really more of a sartorial conflict. albanians have superior dress sense and the serbs are haters. theres no reason to believe they can share the same country. viva kosova!

jhøshea, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:30 (eighteen years ago)

yes, like poor, scrubby monaco? i don't think the size or population of a country has to directly determine what its economy works like or how well the country is administered.

i agree on the depressing nature of ethnic cantonments, but nabs i think you go a step too far to say it "represent(s) a loss of faith in the ideal of working pluralistic societies" -- clearly the kosovars never had this faith to lose, and the serbs, yeah well right. i don't think anyone in the region really gives a fuck what bums western liberals out.

xps

gff, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:32 (eighteen years ago)

Yeah, I'm sure Kosovo is gearing itself to be the new Monaco of the Adriatic.

As already said, I think everybody knows that there was no real alternative to this, but there's definitely a wider trend emerging of "losing faith in pluralistic societies" which is kinda depressing in this day and age.

baaderonixx, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:50 (eighteen years ago)

plz describe wider trend

jhøshea, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:50 (eighteen years ago)

A few old western-European tiny-states and Asian service-and-finance tiny-nations are really no competition for the loads of insurgent ethnic minorities who are insurgent largely because they are undeveloped and left pushed out to land no one would relish pulling a full economy out of! The closest we'll get here is various ethnic minorities being brutalized or pushed off their land because someone found a little oil underneath. Size or population don't directly determine economy or administration, but they make a difference, especially in the vast majority of the world where you're not dealing with a ton of skilled labor or service-sector economies, and it's oil or diamonds or a cash crop or nothing.

Plus this'll sound juvenile but I don't care if anyone doesn't care etc. -- I can be bummed out regardless -- and what I'm talking about is a MUCH larger thing where western powers tend to take the position of encouraging self-determination for any ill-served group, which is inspiring and convenient in the short run, but isn't a principle I'm sure will be all that suitable or helpful as time goes by!

nabisco, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:51 (eighteen years ago)

bu but nabisco...

http://californiaconservative.org/images/_iraq%20purple%20fingers.jpg

jhøshea, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:53 (eighteen years ago)

I mean, we champion self-determination because it is a practical and convenient solution to conflict, sometimes seemingly the only practical solution (and also because it gives us more levers to promote our own interests) -- I'm not 100% opposed to that, necessarily, but as an ongoing tactic I'm not sure it accomplishes everything it wants to in the long term, and I worry that it promotes self-determination in a slippery-slope way, as a kind of ethnic right. Whereas we have yet to find good ways to promote pluralism

nabisco, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:55 (eighteen years ago)

oh boo-hoo poor russia and serbia ;_;

^^^this

let's play defcon!

DG, Monday, 18 February 2008 22:59 (eighteen years ago)

what I'm talking about is a MUCH larger thing where western powers tend to take the position of encouraging self-determination for any ill-served group, which is inspiring and convenient in the short run, but isn't a principle I'm sure will be all that suitable or helpful as time goes by

He was mentioned upthread, but Woodrow Wilson should put a word in. Didn't the various 1919 arrangements teach us that self-determination is a nugatory virtue without infrastructure and other, more powerful interests keeping a sharp eye on your natural resources.

Alfred, Lord Sotosyn, Monday, 18 February 2008 23:03 (eighteen years ago)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7251802.stm

chap, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 00:25 (eighteen years ago)

Serbia has recalled its ambassador from Washington in protest at US recognition of Kosovo's independence, saying the US has "violated international law".

US in "violates international law" shocker

Autumn Almanac, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 00:38 (eighteen years ago)

Serbia is hardly a neutral party in this.

The Reverend, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 00:41 (eighteen years ago)

(Which isn't to say the US is, either)

The Reverend, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 00:42 (eighteen years ago)

I know, but these days saying the US has violated international law is like saying peanuts taste like peanuts.

Autumn Almanac, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 00:44 (eighteen years ago)

This should solve EVERYTHING

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/uk/07/kosovo_map/img/kosovo_albanians_map416_a.gif

Gavin, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 01:08 (eighteen years ago)

western powers tend to take the position of encouraging self-determination for any ill-served group

i'd take issue with this nabisco. cf my first post. nrq - not making a parallel w/spanish civil war by any means, just noticing how the recognition of legitimacy by western nations (or any powerful nation) is always big news.

i don't know what i think about this mainly because i don't know enough about it, my gut instinct is that the people are being played for fools on all sides by politicians eager to cut deals but that's my default assumption on any geopolitical issue

Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 02:13 (eighteen years ago)

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/feb/19/kosovo.eu

^^ this seems to be in mosts ways plausible, except... the guy has written a book about how slobodan milosevic got a raw deal! similarly the new left review (and other parts of the european left, especially in france) have shown a soft spot for serbia that i can't account for.

the situation in kosovo in 1999 more than a little bit more murky than tony blairs and bill clinton made out at the time, but that doesn't magic away serbia's ethnic cleansing.

it's possible to scoff at the putative sovereignty of kosovo without shedding a solitary tear for the serbs and russians. for sure it's going to be a nato protectorate (like, you know, most of western europe), but the alternative is being a serbo-russian protectorate -- toss a coin, such is life for a small state.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 09:45 (eighteen years ago)

How has Macedonia fared since independence? (I know its had a rockyish start but how about now?)

laxalt, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 09:57 (eighteen years ago)

Another issue this brings up is what does it mean for increasingly small states to emerge in Europe, while most of the economic power/regulation is now decided in Brussels. Does this set-up provide more space for these small entities or is it counter-productive?

baaderonixx, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 09:58 (eighteen years ago)

xp

Macedonia has done pretty well since the period it nearly exploded in civil war. I'm not very familiar with that country but I think they managed to successfully integrate the Albanian minority in the political game by having quite a few Alb. ministers, etc

baaderonixx, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 10:00 (eighteen years ago)

Has anyone asked Shefki Kuqi for his views yet?

Dom Passantino, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 10:06 (eighteen years ago)

The Finnish perspective

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 10:08 (eighteen years ago)

Born in Kosovo!

Dom Passantino, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 10:09 (eighteen years ago)

Will apparently be eligible to play for the Kosovo national team, at the discretion of the Finnish FA.

Dom Passantino, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 10:09 (eighteen years ago)

Really, he looks so Finnish! I like him, I wish he was a better player.

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 10:10 (eighteen years ago)

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/archive/design05/images/PH/KuqiG_Empics.jpg

Dom Passantino, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 10:12 (eighteen years ago)

at the discretion of the Finnish FA

I'm sure the Finns will be delighted to have to make this decision, what with being situated on the borders of a Russia that takes offence to just about anything.

Ismael Klata, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 10:15 (eighteen years ago)

If Shefki Kuqi is responsible for World War III, I'd lol a little.

Dom Passantino, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 10:19 (eighteen years ago)

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v134/tracerhand/KosovosFlag.png

Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 11:31 (eighteen years ago)

This flag is absurd.

baaderonixx, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 11:43 (eighteen years ago)

haha wtf.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 11:49 (eighteen years ago)

motto 'kosovo - real name no gimmicks'

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 11:49 (eighteen years ago)

http://img.slate.com/media/1/123125/2079215/2093179/2098572/2101355/2101356/2101357/02_NewIraqFlag.jpg

Whatever happened to this blighter? And who designs these flags? I need a piece of that action.

Ismael Klata, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 11:49 (eighteen years ago)

Cue Cypriots in a huff as they're no longer the only ones with a map of their country on the flag.

Grandpont Genie, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 11:51 (eighteen years ago)

Apparently that blue flag was imposed by the "international community" and each star represents an ethnic group (??).

baaderonixx, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 11:54 (eighteen years ago)

Cue Cypriots in a huff as they're no longer the only ones with a map of their country on the flag.

Cyprus is a nice shape, that's just a splodge

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 11:55 (eighteen years ago)

This flag is absurd.

-- baaderonixx, Tuesday, February 19, 2008 3:43 AM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

The Reverend, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 11:58 (eighteen years ago)

new hilarious web domain name possibilities?

Jarlrmai, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 12:14 (eighteen years ago)

each star represents an ethnic group (??)

lols if this is true.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 12:15 (eighteen years ago)

Everybody is a Star.

Noodle Vague, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 12:15 (eighteen years ago)

similarly the new left review (and other parts of the european left, especially in france) have shown a soft spot for serbia that i can't account for.

It works like this.

The USA and Britain bombed Serbia while Milosevic was its leader. Therefore Milosevic is a top bloke, as are all his nationalist pals.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 12:19 (eighteen years ago)

I imagine there's a bit of residual affection for Serbia on the Left on account of Serbians having fought the Nazis, while Croatians welcomed them with open arms and merrily killed as may Jews as they could lay their hands on

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 12:28 (eighteen years ago)

somewhat more recently the serbs have had mass killings all of their own.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 12:33 (eighteen years ago)

Don't tell me that, tell the New Left Review

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 12:34 (eighteen years ago)

Don't tell me that, tell the New Left Review

this could become the new "Nabisco OTM".

The Real Dirty Vicar, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 12:44 (eighteen years ago)

Heh heh

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 12:46 (eighteen years ago)

xpost

Another issue this brings up is what does it mean for increasingly small states to emerge in Europe, while most of the economic power/regulation is now decided in Brussels. Does this set-up provide more space for these small entities or is it counter-productive?

-- baaderonixx, Tuesday, February 19, 2008 9:58 AM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Link

I think this might be a good thing - better than the Old Europe of competing monolithic empires.

Thomas, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 12:58 (eighteen years ago)

...and it makes as least as much sense for eg Scotland, Kosova and the Basque Country to secede as it does for them to remain in the UK, Serbia & Spain/France.

Thomas, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:12 (eighteen years ago)

There is this country called Albania. If you are an Kosovo-Albanian and want to live in an Albanian country move there! Don't break up an already existing country to create a country for a people who already have their own country.

Lovelace, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:21 (eighteen years ago)

*Don't break up an existing country

Lovelace, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:22 (eighteen years ago)

I think this might be a good thing - better than the Old Europe of competing monolithic empires.

-- Thomas, Tuesday, February 19, 2008 12:58 PM (29 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

yeah, let's just have ONE monolithic empire amirite.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:28 (eighteen years ago)

There is this country called Albania. If you are an Kosovo-Albanian and want to live in an Albanian country move there! Don't break up an already existing country to create a country for a people who already have their own country.

-- Lovelace, Tuesday, February 19, 2008 1:21 PM (7 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

o_O

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:29 (eighteen years ago)

lol just move to another country no big deal

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:30 (eighteen years ago)

Éamon de Valera to thread

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:34 (eighteen years ago)

lol just move to another country no big deal

Well, yes. If their argument is that you want a country of your own for your own people.

Albania already exists, and it's close by.

Lovelace, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:38 (eighteen years ago)

*they

Lovelace, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:39 (eighteen years ago)

they should create a new homeland for the Albanian people! How about somewhere in the Arabian Peninsular, not much going on there at the moment.

chap, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:39 (eighteen years ago)

Albania already exists, and it's close by.

Not as close as Kosovo

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:40 (eighteen years ago)

Will this affect the large numbers of Kosovans currently gathered around the roulette machines in branches of William Hill's nationwide?

Dom Passantino, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:41 (eighteen years ago)

Not as close as Kosovo

Fine. In a few years time the Serb dominated part of northern Kosovo can create their own country, or choose to belong to Serbia again. That's cool too, huh?

Lovelace, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:43 (eighteen years ago)

Serbia: love it or leave it.

Dom Passantino, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:44 (eighteen years ago)

The more the merrier (xp)

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:45 (eighteen years ago)

xpost to Lovelace

Fine. In a few years time the Serb dominated part of northern Kosovo can create their own country, or choose to belong to Serbia again. That's cool too, huh?

yup

Thomas, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:46 (eighteen years ago)

We'll put a boot in ya ass, that's the Serbian way.

Dom Passantino, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:48 (eighteen years ago)

Fine. In a few years time the Serb dominated part of northern Kosovo can create their own country, or choose to belong to Serbia again.

I think those three counties (or whatever they're called) *should* be ceded to Serbia. Not so sure about the coastal one tho, Kaliningrad for example suggests that enclaves are so not a good idea.

If I were a Serb living in Serbia right now I would feel that the world was against me and that I was being punished for the deeds of a nutjob former president. In fact it is difficult to imagine any Serbs living in Serbia right now *not* feeling like that.

Grandpont Genie, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:49 (eighteen years ago)

A nutjob former president you probably voted for

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:50 (eighteen years ago)

^

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:50 (eighteen years ago)

there are plenty of people who voted for Blair who wouldn't have done if they'd known he'd go to war in Iraq.

Grandpont Genie, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:51 (eighteen years ago)

This map of Bridgend county looks a bit like the old Serbia and Montenegro.

Ismael Klata, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:51 (eighteen years ago)

I think you'll find the people who voted for Milosevic knew what they were voting for (xp)

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:52 (eighteen years ago)

I think you'll find that's bollocks.

Grandpont Genie, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:52 (eighteen years ago)

Who did they think he was. Ming Campbell?

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:53 (eighteen years ago)

'sides, what about those Serbs who voted against him? you saying they deserved punishment too?

Grandpont Genie, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:56 (eighteen years ago)

i think youll find milosevic had a lot of support throughout his reign - and those who voted for him or blair or bush are somewhat responsible for their actions regardless

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:57 (eighteen years ago)

Democracy, innit?

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:57 (eighteen years ago)

oooh i didnt know all that nationalism and ethnic baiting would lead to war whaaa

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 13:58 (eighteen years ago)

when people bitch at me abt bush im not all lol i didnt vote for him - im more yah my country is fucked up lol

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:00 (eighteen years ago)

Lovelace, what's your, uh, take on serbia's, um, activities in the mid-90s?

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:15 (eighteen years ago)

Pity Lovelace wasn't around in the early 20th century, could have sorted all that Irish trouble out no problem.

Colonel Poo, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:17 (eighteen years ago)

If someone was going to take away part of your country and give it to someone else because of something your government did, how many of you people can hand on heart say that you wouldn't be just a teensy bit upset about it?

Just coz Milosevic and his cronies were evil murderers it doesn't justify hurting the ordinary Serb populace for ever more.

Grandpont Genie, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:22 (eighteen years ago)

what the fuck are you on about?

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:22 (eighteen years ago)

dude there have been peacekeepers in kosovo ever since cause why?

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:24 (eighteen years ago)

i've got t-shirts older than the (presently constituted blah0 state of serbia.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:24 (eighteen years ago)

xpost

Ok if Northern Ireland declared itself independent, would I be a teensy bit upset about it? Not at all.

Thomas, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:25 (eighteen years ago)

if the south declared itself independent, would I be a teensy bit upset about it? Not at all.

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:26 (eighteen years ago)

if the new york city declared itself independent, would I be a teensy bit upset about it? Not at all.

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:27 (eighteen years ago)

How many times were these evil murderers RE-ELECTED?

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:27 (eighteen years ago)

i mean i luv yall down south - but u got some fucked up politics bigtime!

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:28 (eighteen years ago)

oh yeah, I've got nothing against people from Northern Ireland. But it wouldn't be some kinda affront to my identity if they decided to self-rule.

Thomas, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:29 (eighteen years ago)

you're all picking places you have no emotional attachment to! What if it was where you lived, or yr parents live, or where you grew up etc.

Grandpont Genie, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:31 (eighteen years ago)

You mean, if I was like a Kosovan Albanian?

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:32 (eighteen years ago)

How many times were these evil murderers RE-ELECTED?

prolly not that many times given break up of Yugoslavia was, what, in the early 1990s?

Grandpont Genie, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:32 (eighteen years ago)

dude i just said id be cool w/the balkanization of the usa wtf

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:33 (eighteen years ago)

prolly not that many times

uh ok

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:36 (eighteen years ago)

prolly not that many times given break up of Yugoslavia was, what, in the early 1990s?

December 1990
September 1992
July 1997

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:37 (eighteen years ago)

you're all picking places you have no emotional attachment to! What if it was where you lived, or yr parents live, or where you grew up etc.

-- Grandpont Genie, Tuesday, February 19, 2008 2:31 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

or places where you'd rounded up the locals and had 'em killed.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:38 (eighteen years ago)

... that's a quick bit of googling, could have won more... also note that these were not exactly close elections (xp)

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:40 (eighteen years ago)

This thread is pretty shocking. It amazes me that people are more interested in chucking around their ill-informed opinions on who was to blame for past bloodshed, instead of y'know... actually considering what the best way to prevent future bloodshed is.

jng, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:40 (eighteen years ago)

Yes, what we say here will make all the difference, won't it?

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:41 (eighteen years ago)

you're all picking places you have no emotional attachment to! What if it was where you lived, or yr parents live, or where you grew up etc.

-- Grandpont Genie, Tuesday, February 19, 2008 2:31 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

Fine. Independent state of Yorkshire? ( just for context I live in Yorkshire, born and raised outside, but have some family connections eg Grandmother was from Harrogate ) I'd be a little concerned from an economic point of view - but then, Commercial capital in Leeds, cultural capital in York, major seaport in Hull - but still no affront to my identity at all.

Thomas, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:43 (eighteen years ago)

thanks for the input jng, good work

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:43 (eighteen years ago)

through his shock i am able to see the harsh truth about this thread and even.. myself

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:48 (eighteen years ago)

cultural capital in York

Having lived there I don't advise this.

Raw Patrick, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:50 (eighteen years ago)

xpost ok How to prevent further bloodshed?

1) Declare your country independent from the state which caused the bloodshed.

2) Hope that your decision doesn't have any adverse knock-on consequences in the hideously complex matrix of international politics & national identities.

Thomas, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:54 (eighteen years ago)

xpost to Patrick

yeah but we don't get tourists here in Hull, even with the "Worlds First Submarium TM"

Thomas, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 14:57 (eighteen years ago)

I was waiting to see what my friend Andrea in Belgrade (she's an American expat) would have to say about this weekend and you can read her take on it over here.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 15:16 (eighteen years ago)

i am by no means saying that milosevic was innocent

That's big of you

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 15:21 (eighteen years ago)

Would be fun to see the reactions if several Native American tribes(are they called tribes? Sorry if it's the wrong word)) wanted to create their own countries within the USA. Would the American government and its people, who were so quick to recognize Kosovo, accept that? Of course not. Would the Swedes(my countrymen) accept the creation of a Sami state in northern Sweden? No way.

I find this whole "we have a right to our own country" mentality to be bullshit. And to use the Serb slaughtering of Kosovans in the end of 90s as an argument is silly since Nato and the EU are present there. And again, MOVE THE FUCK TO ALBANIA if you want to live in an Albanian state. It's right next door!

Lovelace, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 15:47 (eighteen years ago)

Would the Swedes(my countrymen) accept the creation of a Sami state in northern Sweden? No way.

Why not?

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 15:49 (eighteen years ago)

cause moving to another country is so easy no big deal - lol u a mad serb

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 15:49 (eighteen years ago)

They're only Albanians anyway

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 15:51 (eighteen years ago)

Lovelace what is your view of Israel/Palestine? Should the Palestinians "MOVE THE FUCK TO IRAN"?

Thomas, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 15:55 (eighteen years ago)

its right there

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 15:56 (eighteen years ago)

Why not?

Maybe because the land belongs to Sweden? And there has never been a Sami nation.

cause moving to another country is so easy no big deal

Never said it was, but the fact that Albania exists, to me, destroys their argument of the need of an Kosovo-Albanian state.

lol u a mad serb

No, I'm Swedish.

They're only Albanians anyway

If there's a massive difference between Albanian-Albanians and Kosovo-Albanians I'd be surpised. But since I'm no expert I could obviously be very wrong.

Lovelace what is your view of Israel/Palestine? Should the Palestinians "MOVE THE FUCK TO IRAN"?

It's not even close to being the same thing, on so many levels.

To all those that support the creation of a Kosovan state I'm still wondering this:

Would support several Native American countries across Northern America, if they should choose to want countries of their own?

Lovelace, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:00 (eighteen years ago)

i would sure

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:01 (eighteen years ago)

Lovelace what is your view of Israel/Palestine? Should the Palestinians "MOVE THE FUCK TO IRAN"?

It's not even close to being the same thing, on so many levels.

-- Lovelace, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:00 (47 seconds ago) Bookmark Link

And that's the end of that chapter.

Dom Passantino, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:02 (eighteen years ago)

Uh-oh.

chap, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:03 (eighteen years ago)

but the fact that Albania exists, to me, destroys their argument of the need of an Kosovo-Albanian state.

i dont think their whole argument is that they need an ethnic homeland - it might be more like we dont want to be part of this country that would be victimizing us were it not for all these u.n. dudes hanging around

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:03 (eighteen years ago)

Serbia having such a good track record on these matters

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:06 (eighteen years ago)

Okay, fine. Everyone is getting a country.

Lovelace, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:10 (eighteen years ago)

I see the Spanish are not so keen on this

laxalt, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:12 (eighteen years ago)

Hmm how quickly this thread has degenerated...

So another interesting issue here is that apparently the Western powers have forced Kosovo to agree that it would never merge with another country.

I can see the point here, ie. preventing border minorities constantly reshaping borders, but wouldn't a bigger Albania have been a bit more sustainable?

baaderonixx, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:13 (eighteen years ago)

But Moldavia and TransDneiper are such wonderful examples of thriving countries.

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:14 (eighteen years ago)

I guess Greece and Macedonia not too hot on Greater Albania tho

xp

baaderonixx, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:15 (eighteen years ago)

little countries are cute!

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:15 (eighteen years ago)

I don't remotely have an idea about this, except that since Dubya approves it must be fuct up.

Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:16 (eighteen years ago)

oh come on i bet you guys both luv john wayne movies

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:17 (eighteen years ago)

little countries are cute!

That about covers it for Dubya

Tom D., Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:17 (eighteen years ago)

i would be so overjoyed to hear those words escape his mouth

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:18 (eighteen years ago)

Everyone is getting a country.

Yay!

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/b/be/Nsklogo.jpg/100px-Nsklogo.jpg

onimo, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:20 (eighteen years ago)

jho, I'm sure W likes the crappy ones like Sands of Iwo Jima & True Grit

Dr Morbius, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:20 (eighteen years ago)

If there's a massive difference between Albanian-Albanians and Kosovo-Albanians I'd be surpised.

albania is relgiously mixed but predominantly catholic (i think). kosovo is predominantly sunni. but yeah the bigger problem is that kosovo was prevented from 'joining' any other nation.

Would support several Native American countries across Northern America, if they should choose to want countries of their own?

the reservations kind of are this. i say "kind of" because the treaties are notoriously horrible, but legally yeah when you're on a reservation you're not "in" the United States.

gff, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:30 (eighteen years ago)

eh kindaaa maaaaybe if you squint

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:31 (eighteen years ago)

yeah it's a bad comparison. some reservations are more hardcore about their sovereignty than others. pretty sure federal laws always apply.

ok actually i don't know how this works at all.

gff, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:34 (eighteen years ago)

i would imagine spain is thinking of catalunya and the basques?

Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:37 (eighteen years ago)

the basques should def get their own place - that would be such an awz cranky lil country

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:39 (eighteen years ago)

red wine mixed with coca-cola and all the chicken you can eat!

Tracer Hand, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:40 (eighteen years ago)

funny how the entirety of europe is basically one ethnic microenclave after another. some places have the luxury of having stamped everyone into a uniform linguistic community a few centuries ago. this is what hapsburg/ottoman style multiculti policy gets you!

gff, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:41 (eighteen years ago)

albania is relgiously mixed but predominantly catholic (i think). kosovo is predominantly sunni.

they are all predominantly Muslim, I understand. But I gather that Albanians have little appetite for forming a Greater Albania.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 16:41 (eighteen years ago)

What does this mean for UEFA qualifying groups? Will they give Kazakhstan back to Asia where it belongs?

Matt DC, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 17:00 (eighteen years ago)

lovelace (and ned's crazy friend), why r u so invested in the territorial integrity of serbia?

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 17:53 (eighteen years ago)

Would be fun to see the reactions if several Native American tribes ... wanted to create their own countries within the USA.

^^ This is already true!!

Also am I misremembering, or does Lovelace also have some Ethiopian heritage? I mean, the "just go to Albania" stuff is insane, but seriously, I don't think it's odd at all to see the dissolution of states into separate ethnic mini-states as a failure, rather than empowerment or progress. It's one that can solve problems and protect minorities from the failure of central governments to include them properly, but it's a failure nonetheless, and I really do worry that celebrating two-state solutions as a matter of course leads bad places.

And to Tracer, okay, I will amend my statement: the west favors self-determination in the case of any central government that's weak or oppositional enough that we can afford to favor self-determination; we move to this pretty quickly, I think, because it's a lot easier than trying to broker successful power-sharing.

nabisco, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 18:58 (eighteen years ago)

smaller states=weaker states, sometimes thats beneficial to 'us', and sometimes it is not, depending who gains from that weakness

laxalt, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 19:06 (eighteen years ago)

Would be fun to see the reactions if several Native American tribes(are they called tribes? Sorry if it's the wrong word)) wanted to create their own countries within the USA.

Lakota Nation secedes from the United States

The Reverend, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 19:09 (eighteen years ago)

I wish to proclaim the Kingdom of the Reverend. (You can take over San Juan Island or something.)

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 19:27 (eighteen years ago)

xpost to nabisco

why not favour self-determination? the opposite is no representation
( or no power for ones representative)

also please unpick "failure" - by whose criteria?

Thomas, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 19:36 (eighteen years ago)

South Carolina secedes from the United States

Ismael Klata, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 19:37 (eighteen years ago)

lovelace sort of has a point in that the most vociferous separatists were albanians who came over the border into kosovo. but this isn't about that, in a way, it's more like the 'orange' 'revolution' in ukraine or something.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:02 (eighteen years ago)

any ideas what affect this will have on heroin?

laxalt, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:05 (eighteen years ago)

effect!

laxalt, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:05 (eighteen years ago)

Russia's siding w/ Serbia on this must have at least as much to do w/ its own internal politix i.e. Chechnya

deej, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:27 (eighteen years ago)

nope: serbia has been a russian puppet state since, ooh, the 19th century.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:28 (eighteen years ago)

jhøshea secedes from usa

jhøshea, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:29 (eighteen years ago)

nope: serbia has been a russian puppet state since, ooh, the 19th century.

I wouldn't go THAT far. (CF: Tito.)

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:33 (eighteen years ago)

uhhh i think that chechnya is a pretty good example of russia's unwillingness to let ethnic separation set a precedent, previous puppet state status or no

deej, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:34 (eighteen years ago)

breakaway republics would be a bad precedent for russia; aren't like 4 out of 10 "russians" actually not? chechens aside

gff, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:36 (eighteen years ago)

yeah plus you have significant islamist minorities

deej, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:38 (eighteen years ago)

russia is too busy being a bigg dogg to worry about the niceties of precedents. kosovo is, however, a big win for the US, so they aren't so happy about it.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:39 (eighteen years ago)

i dunno man 'precedents' aint just a legal term, you're talking about che guevera-style rallying points

deej, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:41 (eighteen years ago)

you don't hear russia weighing in on other separatist movements on those grounds. their beef is specifically to do with serbia being their ally, and the creeping eastwards of the US military (cf the stans, poland, czech rep).

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 20:43 (eighteen years ago)

why not favour self-determination? the opposite is no representation

WTF -- one other little alternative here is functioning pluralistic states! My whole point here is that setting up "opposites" of self-determination versus lack of representation can erode our ability to even have that as a goal, even as a far-sighted dreamy ideal! And it should be an ideal!

nabisco, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 21:03 (eighteen years ago)

im not sure who's supposed to be having this dream: is anyone in the balkans having it? there doesn't seem to be the political will anywhere for that to happen.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 21:07 (eighteen years ago)

I think you are missing my point

nabisco, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 21:10 (eighteen years ago)

^^ This is already true!!

Really? So they have territory that the US government have no jurisdication over? Their own seat at the UN? Are they recognized as countries by other countries?

I mean, I get that they have a lot of influence over their land but to suggest they are countries? Come on. The US would never allow that. Just look at the map below. They'd give up all that land? Completely?

http://www.nps.gov/history/nagpra/DOCUMENTS/RESERV.PDF

Also am I misremembering, or does Lovelace also have some Ethiopian heritage?

You are correct. Both my parents are from Ethiopia. Can't wait til Ethiopia lose the Ogaden!

Lovelace, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 22:03 (eighteen years ago)

im not sure who's supposed to be having this dream: is anyone in the balkans having it?

who knows, but there are still multiethnic states in the Balkan peninsula: Rumania, Serbia, Macedonia, and now Kosova, among others.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 22:26 (eighteen years ago)

I was waiting to see what my friend Andrea in Belgrade (she's an American expat) would have to say about this weekend and you can read her take on it over here. (link upthread)

Ned, I was struck by how your friend's first argument against Kosovar independence was that they have got the name of the country/province wrong. It's good to see the important issues being brought to the fore like this.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 22:32 (eighteen years ago)

What price identity? What value?

Ned Raggett, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 22:33 (eighteen years ago)

Lovelace, this gets REALLY legally complex, but there is actual tribal sovereignty for native groups in the U.S., complete with limited criminal jurisdictions and everything -- it's just insanely complicated and, yes, subordinate to the federal government. Wait a couple years -- like someone said upthread, the Lakota Nation withdrew from all its treaties with the federal government, so we'll probably see some really complicated Supreme Court cases about what that'll wind up meaning.

Also, yeah, I was wondering if the Ethiopia example was on your mind, too. (To everyone else:) The west helped hold out self-determination to Eritrea to bring in support for a revolution; the U.S.-brokered new constitution contains provisions for regions go autonomous, if they like; and it's not just the Ogaden, it could happen that Tigray could develop to a point where it sees benefits to more autonomy. All of which is "self-determination," but doesn't stand to benefit anyone in terms of economics, development, or anything -- it is, yes, a failure to create any kind of workable pluralistic society that serves all its citizens adequately, which I think constitutes a bummer even if there were never much chance of its happening!

nabisco, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 22:38 (eighteen years ago)

Isn't the Ethiopian state basically run by people from Tigray now? That might make Tigrayan succession less likely.

The general thing with states is that they are artificial human constructs, so over time they will rise and fall and see their borders change. In the future, say, Tigray, Eritrea and some bit of the Sudan might form a country while the Ogaden joins up with Puntland to from something else.

There might also be an argument against large states, not on the basis of their ethnic non-homogeneity but just through large size being bad. But in general I am with you on your wouldn't it be better if people could just get along position.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 23:11 (eighteen years ago)

Isn't the Ethiopian state basically run by people from Tigray now? That might make Tigrayan succession less likely.

Not if they divert loads of federal money into building their own infrastructure and then go "LOL, see ya, suckers." I have no idea how likely that is, but there does seem to be a vague fear among some Ethiopians that all the development being diverted toward that province could end with ... taking the money and running, more or less.

nabisco, Tuesday, 19 February 2008 23:44 (eighteen years ago)

The Stratfor elves speak:

---

Kosovo declared independence from Serbia on Sunday. The United States and many, but not all, European countries recognized it. The Serbian government did not impose an economic blockade on — or take any military action against — Kosovo, although it declared the Albanian leadership of Kosovo traitors to Serbia. The Russians vehemently repeated their objection to an independent Kosovo but did not take any overt action. An informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was announced last week; it will take place in Moscow on Feb. 21. With Kosovo’s declaration, a river was crossed. We will now see whether that river was the Rubicon.

Kosovo’s independence declaration is an important event for two main reasons. First, it potentially creates a precedent that could lead to redrawn borders in Europe and around the world. Second, it puts the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany in the position of challenging what Russia has defined as a fundamental national interest — and this at a time when the Russians have been seeking to assert their power and authority. Taken together, each of these makes this a geopolitically significant event.

Begin with the precedent. Kosovo historically has been part of Serbia; indeed, Serbs consider it the cradle of their country. Over the course of the 20th century, it has become predominantly Albanian and Muslim (though the Albanian version of Islam is about as secular as one can get). The Serbian Orthodox Christian community has become a minority. During the 1990s, Serbia — then the heart of the now-defunct Yugoslavia — carried out a program of repression against the Albanians. Whether the repression rose to the level of genocide has been debated. In any case, the United States and other members of NATO conducted an air campaign against Yugoslavia in 1999 until the Yugoslavians capitulated, allowing the entry of NATO troops into the province of Kosovo. Since then, Kosovo, for all practical purposes, has been a protectorate of a consortium of NATO countries but has formally remained a province of Serbia. After the Kosovo war, wartime Yugoslavian leader Slobodan Milosevic died in The Hague in the course of his trial for war crimes; a new leadership took over; and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia itself ultimately dissolved, giving way to a new Republic of Serbia.

The United Nations did not sanction the war in Kosovo. Russian opposition in the U.N. Security Council prevented any U.N. diplomatic cover for the Western military action. Following the war — in a similar process to what happened with regard to Iraq — the Security Council authorized the administration of Kosovo by the occupying powers, but it never clearly authorized independence for Kosovo. The powers administering Kosovo included the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany and other European states, organized as the Kosovo Force (KFOR).

While the logic of the situation pointed toward an independent Kosovo, the mechanism envisioned for the province’s independence was a negotiated agreement with Serbia. The general view was that the new government and personalities in Belgrade would be far more interested in the benefits of EU membership than they would be in retaining control of Kosovo. Over nearly a decade, the expectation therefore was that the Serbian government would accede to an independent Kosovo in exchange for being put on a course for EU membership. As frequently happens — and amazes people for reasons we have never understood — nationalism trumped economic interests. The majority of Serbs never accepted secession. The United States and the Europeans, therefore, decided to create an independent Kosovo without Serbian acquiescence. The military and ethnic reality thus was converted into a political reality.

Those recognizing Kosovo’s independence have gone out of their way specifically to argue that this decision in no way constitutes a precedent. They argue that the Serbian oppression of the late 1990s, which necessitated intervention by outside military forces to protect the Kosovars, made returning Kosovo to Serbian rule impossible. The argument therefore goes that Kosovo’s independence must be viewed as an idiosyncratic event related to the behavior of the Serbs, not as a model for the future.

Other European countries, including Spain, Romania, Slovakia and Cyprus, have expressly rejected this reasoning. So have Russia and China. Each of these countries has a specific, well-defined area dominated by a specific ethnic minority group. In these countries and others like them, these ethnic groups have demanded, are demanding or potentially will demand autonomy, secession or integration with a neighboring country. Such ethnic groups could claim, and have claimed, oppression by the majority group. And each country facing this scenario fears that if Kosovo can be taken from Serbia, a precedent for secession will be created.

The Spanish have Basque separatists. Romania and Slovakia each contain large numbers of Hungarians concentrated in certain areas. The Cypriots — backed by the Greeks — are worried that the Turkish region of Cyprus, which already is under a separate government, might proclaim formal independence. The Chinese are concerned about potential separatist movements in Muslim Xinjiang and, above all, fear potential Taiwanese independence. And the Russians are concerned about independence movements in Chechnya and elsewhere. All of these countries see the Kosovo decision as setting a precedent, and they therefore oppose it.

Europe is a case in point. Prior to World War II, Europe’s borders constantly remained in violent flux. One of the principles of a stable Europe has been the inviolability of borders from outside interference, as well as the principle that borders cannot be redefined except with mutual agreement. This principle repeatedly was reinforced by international consensus, most notably at Yalta in 1945 and Helsinki in 1973.

Thus, the Czech Republic and Slovakia could agree to separate, and the Soviet Union could dissolve itself into its component republics, but the Germans cannot demand the return of Silesia from Poland; outsiders cannot demand a British withdrawal from Northern Ireland; and the Russians cannot be forced to give up Chechnya. The principle that outside powers can’t redefine boundaries, and that secessionist movements can’t create new nations unilaterally, has been a pillar of European stability.

The critics of Kosovo’s independence believe that larger powers can’t redraw the boundaries of smaller ones without recourse to the United Nations. They view the claim that Yugoslavia’s crimes in Kosovo justify doing so as unreasonable; Yugoslavia has dissolved, and the Serbian state is run by different people. The Russians view the major European powers and the Americans as arrogating rights that international law does not grant them, and they see the West as setting itself up as judge and jury without right of appeal.

This debate is not trivial. But there is a more immediate geopolitical issue that we have discussed before: the Russian response. The Russians have turned Kosovo into a significant issue. Moscow has objected to Kosovo’s independence on all of the diplomatic and legal grounds discussed. But behind that is a significant challenge to Russia’s strategic position. Russia wants to be seen as a great power and the dominant power in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Serbia is a Russian ally. Russia is trying to convince countries in the FSU, such as Ukraine, that looking to the West for help is futile because Russian power can block Western power. It wants to make the Russian return to great power status seem irresistible.

The decision to recognize Kosovo’s independence in the face of Russian opposition undermines Russian credibility. That is doubly the case because Russia can make a credible argument that the Western decision flies in the face of international law — and certainly of the conventions that have governed Europe for decades. Moscow also is asking for something that would not be difficult for the Americans and Europeans to give. The resources being devoted to Kosovo are not going to decline dramatically because of independence. Putting off independence until the last possible moment — which is to say forever, considering the utter inability of Kosovo to care for itself — thus certainly would have been something the West could have done with little effort.

But it didn’t. The reason for this is unclear. It does not appear that anyone was intent on challenging the Russians. The Kosovo situation was embedded in a process in which the endgame was going to be independence, and all of the military force and the bureaucratic inertia of the European Union was committed to this process. Russian displeasure was noted, but in the end, it was not taken seriously. This was simply because no one believed the Russians could or would do anything about Kosovar independence beyond issuing impotent protestations. Simply put, the nations that decided to recognize Kosovo were aware of Russian objections but viewed Moscow as they did in 1999: a weak power whose wishes are heard but discarded as irrelevant. Serbia was an ally of Russia. Russia intervened diplomatically on its behalf. Russia was ignored.

If Russia simply walks away from this, its growing reputation as a great power will be badly hurt in the one arena that matters to Moscow the most: the FSU. A Europe that dismisses Russian power is one that has little compunction about working with the Americans to whittle away at Russian power in Russia’s own backyard. Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko — who, in many ways, is more anti-Western than Russian President Vladimir Putin and is highly critical of Putin as well — has said it is too late to “sing songs” about Kosovo. He maintains that the time to stop the partition of Kosovo was in 1999, in effect arguing that Putin’s attempts to stop it were ineffective because it was a lost cause. Translation: Putin and Russia are not the powers they pretend to be.

That is not something that Putin in particular can easily tolerate. Russian grand strategy calls for Russia to base its economy on the export of primary commodities. To succeed at this, Russia must align its production and exports with those of other FSU countries. For reasons of both national security and economics, being the regional hegemon in the FSU is crucial to Russia’s strategy and to Putin’s personal credibility. He is giving up the presidency on the assumption that his personal power will remain intact. That assumption is based on his effectiveness and decisiveness. The way he deals with the West — and the way the West deals with him — is a measure of his personal power. Being completely disregarded by the West will cost him. He needs to react.

The Russians are therefore hosting an “informal” CIS summit in Moscow on Friday. This is not the first such summit, by any means, and one was supposed to be held before this but was postponed. On Feb. 11, however, after it became clear that Kosovo would declare independence, the decision to hold the summit was announced. If Putin has a response to the West on Kosovo, it should reveal itself at the summit.

There are three basic strategies the Russians can pursue. One is to try to create a coalition of CIS countries to aid Serbia. This is complex in that Serbia may have no appetite for this move, and the other CIS countries may not even symbolically want to play.

The second option is opening the wider issue of altering borders. This could be aimed at sticking it to the Europeans by backing Serbian secessionist efforts in bifurcated Bosnia-Herzegovina. It also could involve announcing Russia’s plans to annex Russian-friendly separatist regions on its borders — most notably the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and perhaps even eastern Ukraine and the Crimea. (Annexation would be preferred over recognizing independence, since it would reduce the chances of Russia’s own separatist regions agitating for secession.) Russia thus would argue that Kosovo’s independence opens the door for Russia to shift its borders, too. That would make the summit exciting, particularly with regard to the Georgians, who are allied with the United States and at odds with Russia on Abkhazia and other issues.

The third option involves creating problems for the West elsewhere. An Iranian delegation will be attending the summit as “observers.” That creates the option for Russia to signal to Washington that the price it will pay for Kosovo will be extracted elsewhere. Apart from increased Russian support for Iran — which would complicate matters in Iraq for Washington — there are issues concerning Azerbaijan, which is sandwiched between Russia and Iran. In the course of discussions with Iranians, the Russians could create problems for Azerbaijan. The Russians also could increase pressure on the Baltic states, which recognized Kosovo and whose NATO membership is a challenge to the Russians. During the Cold War, the Russians were masters of linkage. They responded not where they were weak but where the West was weak. There are many venues for that.

What is the hardest to believe — but is, of course, possible — is that Putin simply will allow the Kosovo issue to pass. He clearly knew this was coming. He maintained vocal opposition to it beforehand and reiterated his opposition afterward. The more he talks and the less he does, the weaker he appears to be. He personally can’t afford that, and neither can Russia. He had opportunities to cut his losses before Kosovo’s independence was declared. He didn’t. That means either he has blundered badly or he has something on his mind. Our experience with Putin is that the latter is more likely, and this suddenly called summit may be where we see his plans play out.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 21 February 2008 02:05 (eighteen years ago)

http://www.opednews.com/articles/opedne_stephen__080219_large_potential_alba.htm

Not the best written article I've read, but the first and only place I've seen mention of recently discovered potential oil and gas reserves near Kosovo.

Hurting 2, Thursday, 21 February 2008 02:37 (eighteen years ago)

Ned, thank you for posting that (and the other Stratfor articles I've come across on ILX).

Gavin, Thursday, 21 February 2008 03:33 (eighteen years ago)

No worries. They send them around, I figure they can be shared.

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 21 February 2008 03:35 (eighteen years ago)

The Cypriots — backed by the Greeks — are worried that the Turkish region of Cyprus, which already is under a separate government, might proclaim formal independence.

My understanding is that northern Cyprus has declared formal independence, but no one recognises them except Turkey.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Thursday, 21 February 2008 13:28 (eighteen years ago)

An interesting analysis from Timothy Garton Ash (writing in the LA Times):

The Kosovo precedent

o. nate, Thursday, 21 February 2008 16:24 (eighteen years ago)

You know, if I was a Serb in Kosova I might think "mmmmm, sundered from my Serbian fellows. But on the other hand, on the fast track to EU membership, unlike those losers". So it's not all bad for them.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Thursday, 21 February 2008 17:00 (eighteen years ago)

yah they'll be chowing down on EU pork pretty soon in kosovo.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Thursday, 21 February 2008 17:01 (eighteen years ago)

NOM NOM NOM

The Real Dirty Vicar, Thursday, 21 February 2008 17:16 (eighteen years ago)

tim g-a: "For now, there will be a paroxysm of anger and mourning. But then Serbia has a choice: sulk for decades in impotent resentment, or take the European road to national reconstruction."

love that "for now," the assumption that this is just a hissy fit. he's acting like there are such things as "sovereign states" in this passage, as if serbia, a small state, alone, will be impotent. it's yet another source of tension w. russia for the EU/US.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Thursday, 21 February 2008 17:49 (eighteen years ago)

Fuck the Russians, there'll be tension with them anyway.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Thursday, 21 February 2008 17:51 (eighteen years ago)

I speak as someone who has just been turned down by my country's diplomatic corps.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Thursday, 21 February 2008 17:52 (eighteen years ago)

yah they'll be chowing down on EU pork pretty soon in kosovo.

Dude they're Muslim.

Gavin, Thursday, 21 February 2008 17:54 (eighteen years ago)

i know right

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Thursday, 21 February 2008 17:56 (eighteen years ago)

Not very

Tom D., Thursday, 21 February 2008 18:01 (eighteen years ago)

Oh boy:

Serb rioters broke into the U.S. Embassy today and set fire to an office after a massive protest against Kosovo's independence that drew an estimated 150,000 people

Ned Raggett, Thursday, 21 February 2008 19:11 (eighteen years ago)

o dear

Thomas, Thursday, 21 February 2008 21:00 (eighteen years ago)

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/02/21/world/22109680.JPG

Tracer Hand, Friday, 22 February 2008 00:48 (eighteen years ago)

my love is like a powder keg that's givin off sparks
i really need you tonight
forever's gonna start tonight
forever's gonna start tonight

Tracer Hand, Friday, 22 February 2008 00:49 (eighteen years ago)

Dude they're Muslim

only nominally. When it kicked off in the Balkans in the early nineties, I remember people in the eastern parts of the (then not quite) former Yougoslavia being described as "beer drinking Muslims".

Grandpont Genie, Friday, 22 February 2008 09:02 (eighteen years ago)

well, they were muslim enough for the serbs, right?

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Friday, 22 February 2008 09:25 (eighteen years ago)

Mitrovica knows how to party
Pri-istina knows how to party

Noodle Vague, Friday, 22 February 2008 09:27 (eighteen years ago)

we in that balkan state with the bomb-ass enclave
the place where you never find the bunker empty

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Friday, 22 February 2008 09:44 (eighteen years ago)

been in the game for ten years makin hoo ha
ever since serbs was wearin kevlar

Noodle Vague, Friday, 22 February 2008 09:47 (eighteen years ago)

nrq the prob was ethnic nationalism more than religious bigotry

Tracer Hand, Friday, 22 February 2008 10:18 (eighteen years ago)

(aesop-rockish rejoinder that rhymes with the above)

Tracer Hand, Friday, 22 February 2008 10:19 (eighteen years ago)

are those two things are easily separable? i realize it wasn't a "doctrinal" beef with islam.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Friday, 22 February 2008 10:21 (eighteen years ago)

are

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Friday, 22 February 2008 10:21 (eighteen years ago)

are they easily separable? er i don't know. probably not? depends?

Tracer Hand, Friday, 22 February 2008 11:02 (eighteen years ago)

from another forum:


Just saw a disturbing image in paper. Free beer was being offered on indpendence eve. So they are not practicing mUslims?

--------------------------------------------------------

Majority not. I would say, Ramadan and Eid muslims. "I drink beer but I don't eat pork cause that's haram yo". Alhamdulilah though after the war, a lot of them have started practicing Islam and more and more are getting back to their religion insha'allah. You see lots of bearded brothers.

Gavin, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:03 (eighteen years ago)

You really wouldn't know Bosnia was a Muslim country on a Friday night in downtown Sarajevo. I did a tour of the city, and our guide told us that she considered herself Muslim, but loved drinking, taking drugs nd having sex. I imagine the average metropolitan Kosovan's attitude towards religion is somewhat similar.

chap, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:12 (eighteen years ago)

Wow, imagine if there were other religions where people were adherents who didn't follow every tenet of their faith.

Noodle Vague, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:15 (eighteen years ago)

imagine other tours where your guide tells you how much she loves having sex

max, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:16 (eighteen years ago)

It is sadly a little more surprising with Muslims though, because of the general media portrayal of them.

xpost - yeah, she was a ridiculous flirt as well.

chap, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:17 (eighteen years ago)

yes, this is all true. (including the bit about kosovo getting "more muslim" since 1999 -- mosque-building and whatnot.) i don't really know what you mean by "a muslim country" -- that covers everything from turkey to afghanistan.

all this is sort of moot from the serbian perspective because their beef isn't a western-style multicultural "issue" thing to do with dietary habits, mores, etc. those change rapidly anyway, as they have in the UK quite a bit since the '70s. at the same time it's not quite accurate to say it has nothing to do with "religion" and is an "ethnic" issue -- not sure what that even means tbh.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:18 (eighteen years ago)

1389?

laxalt, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:20 (eighteen years ago)

When it kicked off in the Balkans in the early nineties, I remember people in the eastern parts of the (then not quite) former Yougoslavia being described as "beer drinking Muslims".

there are mysterious very religious Sufi Muslims in the former Yugoslavia (possibly including in particular Serbia) where they see the bouze as in no way being in conflict with their religion. A friend who did certain political work in that part of the world mentioned how this Muslim cleric guy he knew would always make a point of cracking open the wine at every available opportunity.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:24 (eighteen years ago)

Imagine how fond of Kosova the Serbs would be if they had actually won that stupid battle.

The Real Dirty Vicar, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:24 (eighteen years ago)

kosovo getting "more muslim" since 1999 -- mosque-building and whatnot

The money you pay for oil, this is where it ends up. This and high-class call girls.

Ismael Klata, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:39 (eighteen years ago)

and indoor ski-slopes.

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:40 (eighteen years ago)

not those really prickly ones either, with actual "snow".

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:40 (eighteen years ago)

But guys free beer! Best secession ever.

Gavin, Friday, 22 February 2008 16:58 (eighteen years ago)

this is only peripherally related, but when I saw the story just now about a B-2 Stealth Bomber crashing in Guam, I was reminded of when the Serbs shot one down and there was a news photo of a Serb with a sign that said "Sorry, we didn't see it!"

Hurting 2, Saturday, 23 February 2008 07:01 (eighteen years ago)

Narrow escape for the people of Serbia, who have surely suffered enough

Tom D., Thursday, 28 February 2008 12:02 (eighteen years ago)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7285322.stm

Serbia's PM Kostunica stands down

Serbia's Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica has announced his resignation and called for new elections.

The decision follows his failure to get his cabinet to reject closer ties with the European Union in the wake of Kosovo's declaration of independence.

The Reverend, Saturday, 8 March 2008 15:57 (seventeen years ago)

arf at bjork zing

That one guy that hit it and quit it, Saturday, 8 March 2008 15:59 (seventeen years ago)

nine years pass...

Not good:

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-42701712?__twitter_impression=true

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Tuesday, 16 January 2018 11:27 (eight years ago)

I'm sure Tony B will be along to poor oil on the troubled waters soon enough

hell is auteur people (Noodle Vague), Tuesday, 16 January 2018 11:39 (eight years ago)

Not good at all. Though the revive would've been about Russia apparently training mercenaries backing Serbian separatists. Which, if true, also is not good.

♫ very clever with maracas.jpg ♫ (Le Bateau Ivre), Tuesday, 16 January 2018 12:22 (eight years ago)

*thought

♫ very clever with maracas.jpg ♫ (Le Bateau Ivre), Tuesday, 16 January 2018 12:22 (eight years ago)

#Serbia government statement in 2017 on slain politician Oliver Ivanovic: "if you vote Oliver Ivanovic, you vote for destruction of Serbian unity in Kosovo, and clearly, you vote against keeping the organic connection between state of Serbia with Serbian people in province"

— Petrit Selimi (@Petrit) January 16, 2018

Ex-FM of Kosovo reminding everyone of what the Serbian government was saying about Ivanovic when he was alive. Lots of apecu

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Tuesday, 16 January 2018 17:31 (eight years ago)

... speculation that the Serbian government could have been involved but nobody knows anything yet.

Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Tuesday, 16 January 2018 17:32 (eight years ago)

two years pass...

Dozens of guys, and I mean dozens, in cars racing about waving Albanian flags in my neighbourhood - it's like a convoy. Apparently it was Albania's national day... yesterday.

ILXceptionalism (Tom D.), Sunday, 29 November 2020 16:38 (five years ago)

it feels so weird to me that i started this thread - very much not in character for the kind of ILXing i would go on to do in later years

Doctor Casino, Sunday, 29 November 2020 17:51 (five years ago)

two years pass...

Did you hear the one about....

🇽🇰 A Serb and an Albanian were arrested today in Kosovo on suspicion of marijuana possession after an amount of the drug was found in the vehicle they were traveling in.

— kos_data (@kos_data) October 14, 2023

anvil, Sunday, 15 October 2023 19:50 (two years ago)


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