The Colombia/Ecuador/Venezuela Mess or Let's Place Bets on How Long Before the U.S. Backs a Colombian War With Venezuela

uh, why is it so hard to believe chavez wd have close ties with the farc? he is a sleazebag of the first order, a provocateur, and has it out for u.s. foreign policy in south america (and rightfully by the way, things are a dirty fucking shame w/r/t the minimal aid we offer in exchange for a huge and heavy hand in the politics –- legitimately –– and an even larger CIA presence waging whatever kind of illicit war they have been supporting since the middle '60s?

close parenthetical

It's not impossible that he has ties, I just smell bullshit in this whole unfolding of events, especially since yesterday's story claimed FARC planned to make a dirty bomb.

Venezuela contends the texts are lies and fabrications.

If so, they are expertly done.

I love this. It reminds me of Strange Brew, where the bad guy is in court and he's like "I'd like to point out that these tapes have not been faked, or altered in any way. In fact they have time coding, which is very hard to fake."

they probably wouldn't bother, given the efficacy of their kidnapping as a guiding in national politics

What else would Venezuela say? "Oh, oops" ?

In a document dated Feb. 9, Marquez passes along Chavez's thanks for a $150,000 gift when he was imprisoned from 1992-94 for leading a failed coup — and indicates Chavez's desire to smear Uribe.

In it, Marquez says Venezuela wants documentation of damage by Colombia's military to "the civilian population, also images of bombardments in the jungle and its devastation — to use as a denunciation before the world."

"smear"

ehh, i still have a lot of faith in uribe. not to suggest he is totally above-board, but at least during his first term he was relatively effective on the fundraising fronts, and talks with w/ AUC/FARC at least became (briefly) effective.

http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/08/chavez-russian.html

lol

maybe this will make dumb americans notice the large clusterfucked continent to the immediate south

if it hadn't been for carter signing into law the ban on assassinations for heads-of-state, i would have a perfect solution. 'cuz it's obvious uribe doesn't know how to handle his shit w/o CIA involvement in his sketchyass AUC politix

If it's that new destroyer that can't defend against anything, then they might have a chance

Exocet missiles to thread. etc.

http://exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=8319&IBLOCK_ID=35&phrase_id=12028

Smuggling chicken parts???

Report: Launch of CIA ‘cocaine coup’ turned on Romney win

For more than a year the CIA has been trafficking 300 kilos of cocaine a month from Ecuador to Chile for export on to Europe, according to recent credible media reports from Santiago, the Chilean capital.

Proceeds from the 300 kilo-a-month business have been used to create a war-chest to finance a Cocaine Coup in Ecuador that was scheduled to be “green-lighted” after the expected win in the just-concluded U.S. Presidential election—expected, at least, by some Agency officials—of Mitt Romney.

It's a CIA “Ay, there’s the rub” moment.

He's a leftist. Isn't that enough?

The machinations were part of a plan to topple current Ecuador President Rafael Correa, who is unpopular in Washington.

An unexpected side effect of the revelation of the plan, which has received little publicity, has been to focus an observer's attention on what's going on in the drug trade in Ecuador lately. The country's history in the drug business, almost as rich as Switzerland's with banks, goes back a long way.

http://caracaschronicles.com/2014/02/20/the-game-changed/

I've got a former lover and a couple of frightened students trying to find a place with power. This is depressing:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/02/20/voices-latin-america/5644541/

Any reliable commentary on what's going on there? Because all I'm seeing in most places is competing ideologies. I know my history and I don't doubt that the US would like to see the govt go but the Counterpunch left's assumption that all the opposition are fascists and any journalist who criticises Maduro is a CIA shill is embarrassing.

Ignacio Portes on Twitter is always very good but I'm having trouble finding longform pieces by him.

This is the only unbiased piece I've found so far.

venezuelablog.tumblr.com/post/76591076425/who-was-responsible-for-yesterdays-violence-in

Portes seems reliable. Thanks ShariVari. I do think the left has a blind spot when it comes to acknowledging Chavez/Maduro's failings, as if to criticise the govt at all would be playing into the hands of conservatives who want a coup.

Maduro's a thug

I can't look at this with anything other than sadness, the degeneration from leftist savior to aparatus of political oppression being so predictable

A lot of friends on the left seem to think it will do the cause harm if they acknowledge the chavismos' crimes and fuck-ups. I think the risk lies in not doing so.

Nuance is hard to come by in these situations. If most of the professional journalists writing about Venezuela, Ukraine or Syria only have a very superficial understanding of the situations there, it's unlikely many other people, unless they have been following them closely for a number of years, are going to have the kind of depth of insight that you need to take a balanced view. It's also a reflection of the move towards news outlets being competing echo chambers - readers can simply select news sources that agree with them. Even papers like The Guardian have blurred the lines between comment and reporting to such a degree that 'balance' seems to be sought through having five journalists take one highly ideological stance and one or two take the completely opposite one.

That said, i can sympathise with the desire to push back when the mainstream media is so overwhelmingly backing one narrow viewpoint. If you think that this is a right-wing coup against a democratically-elected leftist government, and most papers of note are telling you it's not - ignoring any facts that don't fit their narrative, the temptation to do more or less the same is always going to be there.

OTM but it doesn't create a satisfying dialogue and it's depressing to see the left ignore, for example, Venezuela's massive rape problem. Even if unsavoury characters like Lopez are hijacking the student protests for their own ends, it doesn't mean that the students' objections, or those of other citizens, should be brushed aside. It feels like as long as the US and the shady Venezuelan right want Maduro out then the left can only mention the country's real problems in a handwaving "Of course… but…" way.

I need to read more about the likelihood of an actual coup because obvs there's a difference between protesters wanting a leader to step down and a full-scale Pinochet-style armed coup, eg in Ukraine there's either been a revolution or a coup depending on who you speak to.

I've been trying to discuss this on Twitter and boy do people not give a shit, so thanks ILX

I can't listen to it at work but there's an interview / podcast with Ignacio Portes here:

http://www.r1.co.nz/podcasts/Olivier%20-%20Ignacio%20Portes.mp3

I'm not sure Chavez or Maduro were ever saviors

I don't know much about this, but after catching a couple of news reports full of rich kids with nice clothes, fancy tents, and smart phones trying their best to look put-upon and oppressed, the protests looked awfully stage directed to me, and the hijacking of the vocabulary of revolution was pretty infuriating. Kind of hard to muster sympathy for the "poor little rich boy"

and yeah, the whole scene screamed "CIA"

Probably deserves a new thread, but Venezuela is looking really bad right now.

Looting On the Rise As Venezuela Runs Out of Food, Electricity

On Wednesday, the Venezuelan Chamber of Food (Cavidea) said in a statement that most companies only have 15 days worth of stocked food.

According to the union, the production of food will continue to dwindle because raw materials as well as local and foreign inputs are depleted.

In the statement, Cavidea reported that they are 300 days overdue on payments to suppliers and it’s been 200 days since the national government last authorized the purchase of dollars under the foreign currency control system.

Not headline worthy yet, I guess:

Hungry Venezuelans Hunt Dogs, Cats, Pigeons as Food Runs Out

The population’s desperation has begun to show, with looting and robberies for food increasing all the time. This Sunday, May 1, six Venezuelan military officials were arrested for stealing goats to ease their hunger, as there was no food at the Fort Manaure military base. The week before, various regions of the country saw widespread looting of shopping malls, pharmacies, supermarkets and food trucks, all while people chanted “we are hungry.”

In addition to dogs and cats, people are also killing pigeons to stave off hunger (El Nacional)

they should probably the kill the pigeons first and eat the cats and dogs afterwards if necessary

bread + circuses work but the bread part is non-negotiable

pigeons are better than bread

http://az723720.vo.msecnd.net/media/img27928.475x317.jpg

bread + circuses work but the bread part is non-negotiable

'We want food!', Venezuelans cry at protest near presidency

we're kinda studiously ignoring this bc politically inconvenient yes?

I don't know, there hasn't been that much talk of the right-wing coup in Brazil either? I guess because it's really hard to pin on Hillary...

But, really, the left's love of Venezuela was always going to backfire. Oil cronyism is bad whether the leaders are right or left-wing.

when your economy is based on oil, it suffers when oil prices collapse.

that def a big piece of it but the currency + price controls don't work so well either. the oil collapse sparked the crisis but the economic system exacerbated it.

The Chavez years had an economic stability that hadn't been seen since the 70s iirc, largely by virtue of high oil prices. The social and development programmes he implemented came at a price that wasn't sustainable in a crash and, having come in on the back of twenty years of disaster, there wasn't much chance to build up reserves that would allow them to ride it out.

http://www.npr.org/2016/06/08/481225008/bust-times-in-oil-rich-venezuela-the-banks-dont-have-money-to-give-out

Terry Gross interviews NYT reporter Nicholas Casey about Venezuela

CASEY: Well, yeah. A lot of people are looking at who or what is to blame. There's a lot of things going on right now. One of them is the legacy in the years and aftermath after Hugo Chavez. There was a huge amount of hope throughout the left in Latin America when Chavez came to power.

He was saying many things that no one else was saying and talking about inequality in terms that hadn't been heard in Latin America for years. Unfortunately, what followed was years of mismanagement on every level - a lot of corruption, misunderstandings of how the economy worked or how to fix it.

You know, I'll give you one example that you see a lot. It is causing a lot of the problems in Venezuela - is price controls. During those years, they brought the price of selling something lower than what it cost to make it. So if you wanted to get milk, it was at a very inexpensive price, which was great if you were poor.

The problem was if you were a farmer or, you know, owned an operation that was producing milk. And you couldn't produce it for the price that it was going to be sold for. So what happened next? Well, you just didn't produce it anymore.

So you started to see this huge collapse of production throughout the country. People stopped making beans. People stopped making rice. Venezuela went from being an exporter of meat to importing it. And one by one, all of these things stopped being made in the country.

Well, it wasn't the end of the world then, because there was so much money from the oil that you could just buy it. You could buy it for dollars. And the response was - well, we'll just import it. We can bring all these things in. It's a rich country. Well, this continued for years.

But the problem next came when the price of oil collapsed. And there wasn't any money to buy the imports. And there was no way to make them. So just what happened was - everything started to disappear. So that's part of the reason why Venezuela is where it is. That said, called the proximate cause - is years of mismanagement from these policies, dating back to Hugo Chavez.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/20/world/americas/venezuelans-ransack-stores-as-hunger-stalks-crumbling-nation.html

A staggering 87 percent of Venezuelans say they do not have money to buy enough food, the most recent assessment of living standards by Simón Bolívar University found.

About 72 percent of monthly wages are being spent just to buy food, according to the Center for Documentation and Social Analysis, a research group associated with the Venezuelan Teachers Federation.

In April, it found that a family would need the equivalent of 16 minimum-wage salaries to properly feed itself.

Ask people in this city when they last ate a meal, and many will respond that it was not today.

fuk

Not binding and is unlikely to derail the whole process but...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/02/colombia-referendum-rejects-peace-deal-with-farc

"No one is so foolish as to prefer war to peace". In your face, Herodotus! The modern era has sure proved that wrong.

Has anyone heard what the agreement would have done with the right-wing paramilitary groups under the agreement? Were they to lay down arms, would they not get amnesty also?

I may be wrong but i think the demobilisation of the right-wing paramilitary groups more or less happened in the mid-2000s, with lots being granted amnesty / immunity outside of a conventional 'truth and reconciliation' process.

The main successor groups are seen, officially at least, as criminal gangs divorced from the political process. Some have requested that they be allowed to participate in the peace process - essentially with a view to wiping the slate clean of all post-demobilisation crimes - but this hasn't been accepted.

As part of the peace process (which now may not go ahead) there was going to be a commission to look into ties between paramilitaries and politicians, though i don't think new amnesties were planned.

Ok. Yeah, from a quick scan it seemed that the political ties were brought to light in the 00's. I would have hoped the gangs were included in the peace deal, though, that they were forced to lay down arms as well. I have no love for FARC, but not a lot of trust that new conservative massacres couldn't easily happen in the areas they used to dominate.

I mean, whatever legitimacy farc had as a revolutionary movement is long gone. It reminds me of the ira problem - they fund themselves by trafficking guns, drugs etc., and then they choose leaders who are better at doing that in order to in erase funding, and before you know it they're just a mafia, a cartel, a criminal gang. I do think that farc had a period of legitimacy, though.

Erase = increase

oh this is where we're discussing this

http://crookedtimber.org/2016/10/04/notes-from-colombia/

did anyone read that amazing piece about FARC that NYT ran serendipitously earlier this year?
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/19/world/americas/colombia-farc-rebels.html?_r=0

In a move that Venezuela’s opposition decried as a “coup,” Venezuela’s Supreme Court effectively shut down congress, saying it would assume all legislative functions amid its contention that legislators are operating outside of the law.

The decision will undoubtedly increase tensions in the South American nation where the opposition-controlled congress was seen as a last bastion of dissent. The move is also a slap to the international community, which just this week was pressing the socialist administration to respect the role of the legislature and to hold new elections.

On Thursday, Peru broke off diplomatic relations with Venezuela, calling it a “flagrant breach of democratic order” in the country.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article141655519.html#storylink=cpy

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article141655519.html

so...

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/leftist-lenin-moreno-declared-winner-ecuador-s-presidential-election-n741866

Where all the Lenin joeks at?

what the hell

Venezuela crisis: Helicopter launches attack on Supreme Court

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/interrogation/2017/08/venezuela_is_collapsing_and_no_one_seems_to_care.html

interesting piece.

what a damn mess. hard to see how things improve from here

i don't think there's anything that gets me madder than sophemoric, "anti-imperialist" boilerplate takes on Venezuela (pollyannaish pro-opposition takes suck too)

Otm. That and anti-imperialist boilerplate takes on the Yugoslav civil war. Those two things are the worst for me.

agreed. although of course milosevic was not guilty of all charges and was killed in jail by nato ...

Feeling the anti-imperialism everyday tbh

The outcome that is satisfactory is for the reforms that have benefitted the majority of the people over the years to be built upon.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/02/labour-concerns-on-venezuela-raise-pressure-on-jeremy-corbyn-to-speak-out

I hate the concern-trolling from MPs.

Those reforms depended on oil income that simply isn't there anymore. They were always unsustainable without broadening the economy. Which is not to say that what came before was any better, or that right-wing austerity would do anyone any good apart from IMF connected cronies. But there doesn't really seem to be any foundation to build anything upon.

From my reading on it the oil was used to build quite a few organisational schemes and a mass of social movements. That is the foundation that won't just disappear overnight, whether there is oil money or not.

You need money to run programs. Also and not trivial in the slightest: there are now shortages of p much everything. Which obv effect the poor most acutely.

Sanctions will obviously work a treat of course and not exacerbate humanitarian crisis

Venezuela is a specific situation however I don't agree that a country is purely restricted by a natural resource and that everything is lost...

there are now shortages of p much everything. Which obv effect the poor most acutely.

Is there any good analysis of how this has affected Maduro's popularity with the poor, in particular? Lower-income voters, who have been most affected by shortages, still appear to be the core of the Bolivarian / Chavista movement.

I'm not sure it's that simple. The states that still supported the movement in 2015 elections were on the one hand quite poor, but on the other hand agricultural, and probably less hurt by shortages. I haven't read any really good analysis as well, and I think it's hard to do when no statistics are that trustworthy.

There are substantially more GPP voters in the areas that they lost than the ones they won, though.

I can't really recall any good pieces about the nature of the 2015 swing in places like Caracas or how the support has held up over the last two years either.

I've got students whose parents scrounge for food in garbage cans in Caracas.

There are substantially more GPP voters in the areas that they lost than the ones they won, though.

I can't really recall any good pieces about the nature of the 2015 swing in places like Caracas or how the support has held up over the last two years either.

― Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), 3. august 2017 11:47 (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Well, of course there are more GPP voters in those areas, they are far more populated, period. There are also more Trump-voters in California and New York than in Nebraska, but this doesn't really say anything. But I don't know, I don't have the information I would want to have, so... Who knows, you might be right.

there are now shortages of p much everything. Which obv effect the poor most acutely.
Is there any good analysis of how this has affected Maduro's popularity with the poor, in particular? Lower-income voters, who have been most affected by shortages, still appear to be the core of the Bolivarian / Chavista movement.

― Wag1 Shree Rajneesh (ShariVari), Thursday, August 3, 2017 1:35 AM (seven hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i dunno but PSUV lost the parliamentary elections in 2015 under maduro quite handily to the opposition and with a swing of 16% away from the government under conditions that were not necessarily completely fair https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-election-idUSKCN0SZ33U20151110

Yep, they got a heavy beating in 2015 but still retained about 40% of the vote in the middle of the crisis. I'm interested in understanding how much of the 40% they have retained and how that breaks down demographically.

It's basically impossible from press reports (whether it's Telesur or the Washington Post) to get a sense of who is still supporting Maduro and why.

Indeed, however its safe to assume a coup won't go well and the people calling for democracy in this coutry behave in a rather undignified way on other issues so I won't pay lots of attention to what they have to say.

#Venezuela: a army unit from #Valencia (#Carabobo) has announced its defection from the regime. Stating its now in rebellion against #Maduro pic.twitter.com/PviOhpX7vN

— Thomas van Linge (@arabthomness) August 6, 2017

That didn't last long
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-40843494

https://deleteyouraccount.libsyn.com/renovate-the-state

Might be worth a listen.

Anti-imperialism = still good k tx bye

Athletics Weekly‏Verified account @AthleticsWeekly 35m35 minutes ago

Before London 2017, Venezuela's best placing in a World Champs event was 8th. They now have gold (W triple jump) and bronze (W pole vault).

Dunphy and Giles vindicated

Really nice piece -- written around August -- on all sides of the conflict:

https://monthlyreview.org/2017/10/01/venezuelas-fragile-revolution/

And then there's this:

Some upper-class pockets in Venezuela can still afford to eat out. Inside Casa Bistro in Caracas: https://t.co/WOi1zeAICL

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 20, 2017

Yes, we know there is food scarcity driving up prices. The piece explores some of it and adds more.

The tension between social justice and socialist efficiency plays out on other fronts. One issue is the widespread practice of granting free or excessively low-priced goods and services to poor and working-class communities. The case for the policy is compelling, namely that the government has a responsibility to pay what Chavistas call the “social debt” owed to the most exploited sectors. Yet such artificially low prices on goods produced by state companies undermine their ability to achieve self-sufficiency, and are partly responsible for the chronic scarcity of many products and the emergence of an exploitative black market.

Last night @NicolasMaduro told the #Venezuelan people that the ultra-right in Colombia & Venezuela were responsible for the attack, which he also said was "financed from #Florida". Maduro said ex-Colombian President @JuanManSantos was involved in the plan https://t.co/JnLt4DNESr

— venezuelanalysis.com (@venanalysis) August 5, 2018

Yeah.

Misery links ahead...

With that in mind, where are we now? Between 2.3 and 3 million Venezuelans have now left their country since 2014. As of August 2018, at least seven percent of Venezuela’s total population (as measured in 2014) had fled, and at least 5,000 more Venezuelans leave their homes every day. Assuming that this migration rate continues, 1.8 million Venezuelans will have left their homes in 2018. As of last year, Venezuela was the fourth most prevalent refugee sending country in the world—behind only Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. But with no end in sight, Venezuela’s crisis is in fact on track to become one of the largest national exoduses in world history.

Instead of sidelining those accused of drug trafficking, Maduro has promoted them to the highest offices, perhaps calculating that they have the most to lose if his regime falls and will therefore fight the hardest to preserve it.

"Venezuela’s Refugee Crisis: why don’t we care?"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/venezuela-humanitarian-crisis-refugees-borders-photography-a8579311.html

With respect Senator Durbin, the US should not anoint the leader of the opposition in Venezuela during an internal, polarized conflict. Let us support Uruguay, Mexico, & the Vatican's efforts for a negotiated settlement & end sanctions that are making the hyperinflation worse. https://t.co/qoAb2ou95g

— Ro Khanna (@RoKhanna) January 24, 2019

Agreed that a lifting of sanctions and increase of humanitarian aid is probably the most urgent necessity, it is just that those need to happen via a legitimate government. Maduro's election was a sham and so is the judiciary atm, so an interim executive appointed by the legislative opposition is not the worst solution. Seems obvious to me, thanks to reading experts of actual Latin America geopolitics, that the wave of recognition was carefully planned: Guaidó gets to be recognized as a legitimate figure by some key nations (US, Colombia) which could allow humanitarian relief, while other stress the importance of free and fair elections (EU), while other key nations propose a neutral role for the settlements to come (Uruguay, Mexico).

After that there is a whole bunch of stuff from the rose-emoji-in-their-twitter-handle-crew stuff that I feel the need to addressed: the legitimacy of Guaidó can be discussed, sure, but his role in all of this has not yet translated unto real power over the nation of Venezuela so one can at least wait before calling it a coup. Or admit that the sham elections of Maduro + his handling of the judiciary and military + the backing of Russia has constituted a much larger coup and he is still firmly in power. Guaidó legitimacy can be discussed sure, but its important that he appointed himself as an interim and that discussion belongs to the Venezuelan people, not a way for say... the American director of one successful indie film to signal is understanding of geopolitics and class struggle. Also, sanctions are only a part of the hyperinflation and aren't the only strain on Venezuela's economy at the moment.

Yeah, the Coup was in 2017, no matter what The Coup says.

Freeland spoke to Venezuelan opposition leader two weeks before he declared himself interim president, source says https://t.co/WqFuN4uHUV @GlobePolitics pic.twitter.com/vKZL3tI0Mu

— The Globe and Mail (@globeandmail) January 25, 2019

Chrystia Freeland representing Canada the merciless capitalist empire.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/30/world/americas/venezuela-maduro-protests-faes.html

This seems like a pretty good summary of the various goings on: https://nacla.org/news/2019/01/24/venezuela-another-crossroads

(Touched on it in the UK politics thread today so was reminded to post this)

It looks like, despite the thinly-veiled threats from the US, CARICOM is pretty strongly behind the Uruguay / Mexico plan at this stage. The outline of the Montevideo Mechanism doesn't say a great deal, and Guaido has already refused to participate, but if the outcomes are on the surface fairly defensible (new elections on a set timetable, international monitors, etc), it'll give the opposition (and some of the countries supporting it) an interesting decision to make.

Wait, why is CARICOM suddenly so important? Neither Venezuela, Columbia or Brazil are full members? And what has Maduro said about the plan, I thought he had shut down elections for anything other than parliament already?

Just to be clear, you're asking why CARICOM countries, some of which border (or are within swimming distance of) Venezuela, that have substantial trade relations with Venezuela - including agreements covering oil, natural gas and food, that are currently experiencing a spike in the number of refugees from Venezuela, present some of the primary opposition to the OAS formally recognising Guaido as President of Venezuela and who are actively participating in the Uruguay / Mexico peace plan are important to the situation in Venezuela?

Do they have any leverage over Brazil?

So... this is the Montevideo Mechanism?

1. Dialogue Phase: Creating conditions for direct contacts among the actors involved, in an environment of security.
2. Negotiation Phase: Strategic presentation of the results of the previous phase to the counterparts, seeking to find common ground and areas of opportunity to allow the relaxation of positions and identify potential agreements.
3. Commitments Phase: Construction and subscription of agreements based on the results of the negotiation phase, with the characteristics and time-frame, previously agreed upon.
4. Implementation Phase: Materialization of the commitments assumed in the previous phase with the international accompaniment.

Does Brazil have any leverage over China, Russia or Mexico? Do they need it?

At this stage, Brazil isn't likely to mount a full-scale invasion. The primary pressure Guaido's backers can exert comes through sanctions and formal diplomatic recognition of the opposition. If regional partners can outline a credible, peaceful solution - aligning to some extent with some of the demands the EU, etc, have been making about new elections, the international case for pressing forward with more sanctions, more countries backing Guaido, etc, is likely to weaken - or at least ensure that Guaido has to outline his own proposals for elections.

Maduro has said he's backing the Montevideo Mechanism and is open to having a full constitutional discussion. The processes have been outlined, albeit somewhat vaguely, but the outcomes (whether there will be elections or not, etc) are still TBC. It's too early to assume what they'll be but it will clearly have an impact on what comes next.

Do you have a link to Maduros comments? I do believe that he would support it, it sounds hilariously vague and mostly designed to take the pressure off, which obviously benefits him.

There's some coverage in the Mexican press from yesterday here:

https://www.excelsior.com.mx/global/maduro-aplaude-a-mexico-y-uruguay-por-propuesta-de-dialogo/1295008

But has has said for some time that he'll actively participate in the dialogue. From the CARICOM perspective, it's less about taking the pressure off, more about avoiding a civil war on their doorstep.

Yeah, sure. And too bad about the Venezuelans who then might be massacred by their own government.

That's snarky, but a solution where the Maduro regime stays in power obviously just kicks the can down the road.

"Yeah, sure". ffs Fred.

The idea that Maduro must be removed from power by someone other than the electorate is central to a lot of the interventionist assumptions. Guaido hasn't set out a proposed timeline for elections but has made it pretty clear that Maduro and his close allies wouldn't be allowed to participate in them, if and when they did happen. I'm not sure how, from that starting point, you'd ever have a process seen as legitimate by the substantial proportion of the country that still backs him. Equally, the opposition is unlikely to participate in any elections run strictly on Maduro's terms. A regionally-managed compromise, however remote the prospect might seem, looks like the only way to square the circle and Uruguay, Mexico and CARICOM (whose members are more or less united on negotiation, but individually split on support for Maduro) are the only ones i can see who might be able to attempt that in good faith.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/2019/02/08/greg-grandin/whats-at-stake-in-venezuela

If we are to assume that the US backing the Gaido regime a coup, or imperialism, which I don't necessarily agree with but find fair. What name do we give to Rosneft providing billions in loans to PDVSA? The Russia backing of the Maduro regime and his fraudulent elections? The selling of weapons to the Venezuelan military, who are obviously breaking bank while people can't afford basic medicine and hold true power over the citizens? Is that something we can call latin sovereignty? Is that the exercise of democracy?

some of the other greater powers also have a relationship with some latin american states which is neocolonial in nature. not really sure what the aim of such whatabouttery is, mind you.

Well how do you create a democratic situation in Venezuela when a colonial power is acting very hard against it? I believe it is a legit question. Which colonial power has been the most destructive force over the past 5 years? That is another one.

you have the US carry out a coup is your answer i'm assuming?

It is not whatabboutism to debunk the naive understanding that Venezuela is an underdog from latin america facing a colonial power on its own and keeping its precious from oil from it.

sharivari's most recent post is literally just there

It is not whatabboutism to debunk the naive understanding that Venezuela is an underdog from latin america facing a colonial power on its own and keeping its precious from oil from it.

― Van Horn Street, Friday, February 8, 2019 3:13 PM (twenty-eight seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

flag on the play. straw man argument

I'm firmly against US military intervention, I believe in Gaido being used as an interim president that can oversee new fair elections without himself and Maduro as contenders, with Mexico/Uruguay easing transition for the dictatorship and Western nations ending sanctions and providing aid.

I was responding to the article you posted.

point stands

I believe in Gaido being used as an interim president that can oversee new fair elections without himself and Maduro as contenders, with Mexico/Uruguay easing transition

Going in from the perspective that Maduro isn’t legally the President, I can definitely see how this could look like the best-case-scenario at some level. I can’t see how it could be easily executed though.

Guaido clearly doesn’t see his role as just transferring power to the next person who can get elected fairly. He is setting out policy - including completely overhauling the oil industry in a way favourable to the US. He has said he will ‘restore democracy’ but has, afaik, pointedly ruled out giving a timetable for when elections might happen. He has stated that, as part of his ‘interim’ presidency Maduro and other senior figures in the PSUV may, if they are lucky, have a choice between jail or (if they remove themselves from politics) some form of amnesty. He has currently ruled out discussions with Mexico and Uruguay - preferring to work with countries who have had an ongoing, long term project not to guarantee free elections but to destroy Chavismo in Venezuela and remove leftist leaders from the whole of South America.

If he could work with MX and UY to resolve the impasse, giving a clear timetable for both PSUV and the opposition to have a meaningful chance of winning a fair election, I can’t imagine Maduro being on board with it, necessarily, but it would be a show of good faith to the PSUV supporters in the country and potentially increase internal pressure on Maduro to quit in favour of someone less divisive. That is not his plan or the plan for the people engineering his push.

Thanks ShariVari for the updates and clarity you bring to what you comment on.

If we are to assume that the US backing the Gaido regime a coup, or imperialism, which I don't necessarily agree with but find fair.

What's fair about it? Don't be shy to answer now you are bound to look like a genius next to Fred's incoherence.

He's saying that he doesn't agree it's a US backed coup, but finds the interpretation fair. I don't, I find it laughable. And then Jim just goes on and says US is carrying out a coup.

It's really easy to look like a genius when there's such a large rung under me who can't even read. And if I'm an idiot...

The PSUV has rigged the latest elections, and when they couldn't rig the elections to the National Assembly, they just got rid of it in what is still a much clearer 'coup' than anything going on right now. I do get if Guaido isn't that concerned with giving the PSUV a 'meaningful' chance of winning the next election, when they've clearly not done the same, and all the momentum is against them. What on earth does a meaningful chance for the PSUV even look like? They're still allowed to rig it just a little?

I do get if Guaido isn't that concerned with giving the PSUV a 'meaningful' chance of winning the next election, when they've clearly not done the same, and all the momentum is against them

PSUV is the largest party in Venezuela, controls the majority of state governorships, has millions of active members / supporters, has the backing of a substantial amount of the army and, if Maduro stepped aside, would have a decent chance of making any fair presidential election extremely competitive against a divided opposition.

Even if you aren’t particularly bothered about the right of the Venezuelan people to make a meaningful choice about who their leaders are, surely it’s pretty clear that ousting them from power and hobbling their ability to fight elections would be incredibly dangerous. This would all be more straightforward if PSUV was a tiny clique struggling to hold on to power - it isn’t, it’s a mass movement that still represents a huge proportion of Venezuelans. Whether or not that is enough to keep winning elections like they did during the Chavez era under new leadership is debatable, but they can’t be brushed aside without serious consequences.

Equally, if much of the opposition wasn’t transparently trying to turn the clock back 25 years, or embracing the support of fascists in Brazil and the US, they might have a better chance of engaging some of the voters who aren’t keen on Maduro but don’t want to see all the social gains of the Chavez era undone. The only way the Bolsonaro / Abrams vision of a new Venezuelan political landscape, which Guaido has chosen to represent, can come about and be maintained in the long term is undemocratically.

He's saying that he doesn't agree it's a US backed coup, but finds the interpretation fair. I don't, I find it laughable. And then Jim just goes on and says US is carrying out a coup.

― Frederik B, Saturday, 9 February 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

There is no finding 'fair' about it - there is a desire for regime change. Just because it isn't moving the army against a government like in Chile (because in this case the US can't quite do that) there are moves to shut Venezuela out economically and to exacerbate people's suffering and turn the clock back.

Is Maduro to be allowed to compete in the elections?

There is currently no plan for new elections - Guaido hasn’t suggested one and the Uruguay / Mexico discussions with Maduro haven’t started yet.

What is clear, however, is that Guaido is intent on removing any possibility that Maduro could run, if he is successful. He has talked about being open to the idea of offering Maduro and colleagues amnesty from criminal prosecution if he steps down immediately - the options would probably be something like exile in Cuba or jail in Venezuela.

I hope we can all agree that one of the punishments for rigging elections should be to lose your electability, right? That's fair, no?

The opposition won the last fair election 56% to 40%, and that was back in 2015. Venezuela hasn't really gotten better since then. In what world does the PSUV stand a chance without cheating?

I’m not going to spend Saturday afternoon explaining Venezuelan domestic politics to someone who has clearly little to no interest in it, but the coalition that won 56% in the parliamentary elections of 2015 no longer exists. The current opposition coalition is a broad church that can unite behind being anti-Maduro, but that doesn’t mean it is going to be able to unite behind a single presidential figurehead - one of the main reasons the main Soc-Dem party left last year is that it was impossible for MUD to agree on who should lead the coalition.

If they can figure out how to have a single viable candidate who can bring together the centre left, liberals, the centre right, the far right, John Bolton, Jair Bolsonaro and enough of the anti-Maduro people who want completely different things to each other, it should be a lock. If they can’t, then a party that can reliablely get 40-45% at national level and substantial majorities at local level, is going to be a threat.

Either way, any approach that cuts a party that can command in the region of 40% out of the process, isn’t going to be able to sustain legitimacy.

teresa may obv

Or Guaido. The idea that we should just continue letting the party that can only get 40-45% at national level run anything is insane to me.

Also, 'can't unite behind a candidate', wasn't the problem that Maduro keeps blocking candidates from being able to stand?

Xp

That’s how it works when you have a multi-party system and a divided opposition. The problem is that there are two radical poles - PSUV and the axis of US-affiliated old money that wants to go back to the 80s - that are stronger than anyone else but lack enough support for a commanding majority. Everyone else, including a fair proportion of voters, is stuck in the middle. You can form alliances of convenience to try and block one or the other from achieving their goals but you can’t get enough people for a decisive path. There is no way that the right, and their international supporters, are going to tolerate a new normal where state ownership, high taxes, an arms-length relationship with the US etc, are on the table even if Maduro goes but there is no legitimate way to reverse Chavismo through democratic structures at the moment, as there are enough PSUV voters, and anti-PSUV leftists, to stop it. That’s one of the reasons that crushing PSUV, jailing leaders, linking them to terrorism, etc, is so essential.

Some form of negotiated solution where PSUV is still involved but there are greater constitutional checks and balances might be a temporary solution if everyone was acting in good faith but it wouldn’t achieve the policy objectives of most of the major players outside of Venezuela pushing the Guaido presidency.

Come on ShariVari, if PSUV had felt comfortable about winning presidential elections, they wouldn't have rigged the last one. And more constitutional checks and balances wouldn't do anything to change the fact that the PSUV has completely wrecked the Venezuelan economy and turned the country into a kleptocracy. How to get out of that without reforms?

The idea that the only people who rig elections are the ones who are worried about losing doesn’t stand up to a great deal of scrutiny. There is no guarantee that they would win a fair election but there is also no guarantee that they wouldn’t - and there are enough people in the country who don’t think that they rigged the last one to make unilaterally invalidating it a huge practical problem. As I said, if the opposition was uniformly after one thing, PSUV probably wouldn’t stand a chance of retaining power in the short term.

Equally, within the left you have a large cohort who blame external agents for creating the economic crisis and another group that believes in PSUV’s underlying goals are valid but ‘Maduro has betrayed the legacy of Chavez’, etc. If the case for completely overhauling the Venezuelan economy, as the US would like, was clear-cut, PSUV would be a niche party. The are too many people who remember what the country was like prior to Chavez with horror to make blindly trusting the anointed son of the US and Brazil a viable option. There is no easy answer to any of this.

The case for completely overhauling the Venezuelan economy is absolutely clearcut, come on. The country is wrecked by hyper-inflation? Clearly something must change?

That’s for the people of Venezuela to decide, but to start with, Colombia, the US and Brazil could stop waging economic war against them. You could almost ask why, if they’re so convinced the economy will fail on its own, they’re so keen to rig it...

Either way, there is probably a decent majority of people in favour of some kind of reform at this stage. What that reform should look like is the question.

SV otm

Fred - now annoying people on three continents.

the man from del monte el hottakeo .. he says yes .. to Trump regime intervention.

Oh come on, sanctions aren't meant to wreck the economy, they're punishments for turning into a dictatorship. Stop playing dumb.

Yes, there’s nothing Trump, Bolsonaro, Abrams, et al like less than a dictatorship. The recent sanctions are a pretty transparent attempt to ratchet up domestic pressure on Maduro by making an already bad situation worse.

It would be much easier to take the US’ actions in good faith as a defence of democracy had they not spent the last 20 years backing coup attempts, pumping money into anti-PSUV groups, etc, even if you did have Bolton on TV saying the quiet parts about oil out loud.

Oh come on, sanctions aren't meant to wreck the economy, they're punishments for turning into a dictatorship.

It would be much easier to take the US’ actions in good faith as a defence of democracy had they not spent the last 20 years backing coup attempts

This is the weirdest and stupidest thing you've written yet. Only 20?

In terms of power politics, whatever policies Guaido favored early on in this struggle, it is inevitable that he would seek the US as an ally and move his policy toward accommodating US desires. Because atm Trump (and Bolton) form US policy, the required level of accommodation will be thinly disguised capitulation. Whether or not this started as a US-backed coup, it seems unavoidable that US greed will seize the opportunity to reshape it into one. The Venezuelan people will be lucky to get out of this without sinking into a puppet government and debt-slavery for half a century.

wait so now you're saying we *shouldn't* take the US' actions in good faith? and yet you were defending the sanctions before?

pro tip: US interventions are never for the reasons we say they are, follow the money

I keep coming back to Alfred's "Maduro is shit, but he's OUR shit" sentiment that was, y'know, expressed by actual people living in Venezuela

this whole situation is radiaating bad vibes from every crevice. it's giving me hives if i allow myself to catastrophize :(
i basically don't trust much of anything the USA has ever done wrt Latin America

radiaaaaaating lol

I keep coming back to Alfred's "Maduro is shit, but he's OUR shit" sentiment that was, y'know, expressed by actual people living in Venezuela

― sleeve, Saturday, February 9, 2019 2:07 PM (thirty-three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

As I said upthread, this is far from the truth. You have competing imperial interests in Venezuelan oil.

Fred you're way out of line.

I never said that! Students living here whose families thread Chavez and Maduro shaped my perspective.

I meant Fred B in case that wasn't clear :)

no, not you, the sleeve quote.

sorry, I thought that was you quoting other people you knew earlier? my apologies if incorrect but I remember the quote distinctly - "he's shit, but he's our shit, keep your nose out of our shit"

I don't think I even quoted it secondhand. Actually, my students want Maduro gone, and I've seen the strange-bedfellows approach b/w the Trump administration and the parents of the students who have no butter or meat.

fair enough, and I apologize again, not sure where I got that from.

I don't think that the "he's shit, but he's our shit, keep your nose out of our shit" mentality would be way off that being said. Even if I, white dude living in Canada, thinks it is not exactly that.

The only goood about Fred's busted ranting is that it has allowed others (and especially SV) to write some informative posts. But ultimately we only need to know because our governments feel the need to poke their nose in.

I hope we can all agree that one of the punishments for rigging elections should be to lose your electability, right? That's fair, no?

― Frederik B, Saturday, 9 February 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Or Guaido. The idea that we should just continue letting the party that can only get 40-45% at national level run anything is insane to me.

― Frederik B, Saturday, 9 February 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Who are we to punish Venezuela, or to continue letting a country do this or that just because the news cycle turns around every now and then and decides that something must be done (especially when such poor bad-faith understanding is perpetuated by western media - look at Fred's posting on it and shake your head but its useful to see and what we all need to fight here). The US had Trump elected on about 40%. May is in a minority government in a flawed first past the post system. WE have no right to judge what Venezuela, Cuba, North Korea are up to. This is white, male, western entitlement in western countries that brutalise the poor, migrants and minorities (in the UK = the number of hungry children and homeless, benefits sanction for the poorest, our record and public conversation on trans rights, brutal and humiliating deportation of migrants that have the right to live here). WE have no right.

In Brazil ofc Lula was jailed and stoppped from standing - he would've beaten Bolsanaro. That a negotiated solution should include such a ppl is just nonsense. This is a Venezuelan problem mainly.

Ultimately its a money making opportunity for outside actors - Maduro goes, the movement destroyed. We've seen what has happened in parts of Eastern Europe where the EU tolerates Poland and Hungary who were 'liberalised'. That the EU recognised the opposition is laughable.

It would be much easier to take the US’ actions in good faith as a defence of democracy had they not spent the last 20 years backing coup attempts

This is the weirdest and stupidest thing you've written yet. Only 20?

― Frederik B, Saturday, 9 February 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

What is it that you are even saying here? So you recognise there is more than 20 years of coup attempts by western actors - so it should be bad and yet you back more intervention and punishment via sanctions (even though you decry the murder and hunger in Venezuela by backing sanctions that will make a bad situation worse?)

btw don't answer that I don't want to know.

Yes, from context I thought it would be pretty obvious that was a reference to attempts to undermine MVR / PSUV in power from the point of Chavez’ election twenty years ago but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The idea that we should just continue letting the party that can only get 40-45% at national level run anything is insane to me.

LOL, what a stupid statement.

I've just done a Fred, taken a cursory ill-informed look at Danish politics, and discovered no political party in Denmark has won over 40% of the vote in a General Election since 1964.

Tom, Denmark is a multi-party democracy, like Venezuela actually. The current coalition won 51,9% of the vote last election.

Btw, this is basically the central part of what xyzzz is saying: But ultimately we only need to know because our governments feel the need to poke their nose in. It's just a complete disregard for anyone other than ourselves. Narcissism, basically.

Winning 56-41 is a stunning landslide which I basically don't think has ever happened in Denmark?

I don't know anything about Danish politics, you don't know anything about UK politics, Venezuelan politics etc etc - I'm happy not to post anything more about Danish politics, the ball's in your court.

Thanks, I'll continue, I'm clearly better at this than you are.

Making an arse of yourself on ILX? You're one of the market leaders, for sure.

the glorious revolution (choose yr own preferred faction) would no doubt already be in action if fred wasnt in yr sights folks eh

guys wrong itt. plenty shitetalk itt besides him. smells of a pile on.

yeah nerdy p would right there to provide identical takes, nice catch

lol remember when freddie got banned and nerdstrom showed up almost immediately to pick up the "i sure do hate glenn greenwald" shitposting

You can see in Fred's posting why the likes of North Korea had to get the bomb.

Just thank your lucky stars he is an internet film crit writing in Danish. If he had any political ambitions Fred could be dangerous.

You're utterly deranged.

Keep going like this.

fred u might be done

https://fair.org/home/western-media-fall-in-lockstep-for-cheap-trump-rubio-venezuela-aid-pr-stunt/

Learning of Abrams' (public) full CV when it comes to uh foreign misadventures was kinda stunning to me. Shoulda been hung decades ago.

yeah he's a fucking monster, if there was any lingering doubt about what a bad idea US involvement is here, Abrams being part of it should have erased those concerns

can't shake his evil fucking laughter a little over 15 minutes into this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ig0YvJCh5w

I think it's a reasonable proposition that an US backed coup, even with some **gasp** privatization, is a much better alternative than a Russia-backed dictatorship/proper coup that has ripped the country apart for the last few years. I don't see a realistic third alternative anyway, maybe ShariVari has an idea.

I think it's a reasonable proposition that an US backed coup, even with some **gasp** privatization, is a much better alternative than a Russia-backed dictatorship

You're adorable.

Thanks, trying my best. But now to engage with the idea...

I think if you'd read SV's posts you might he noticed he's already spent a good deal of time talking about alternatives to Trump getting a war all of his own and/or Maduro carrying on as before.

Fred, are you familiar with the phrase "caught between the devil and the deep blue sea" or "jumping out the frying pan and into the fire"? That's where ordinary Venezuelans are caught atm.

But now to engage with the idea...

There is no idea to engage with. You're presenting a false dichotomy - just a happy lil' American-backed coup that will quickly resolve into a liberal democracy with some privatization, no biggie. Which would, of course, be all but unprecedented in our history of regime change.

Chavismo comes from a completely different place to Putin. Like, there are social movements behind the thing.

Chavismo comes from a completely different place to Putin. Like, there are social movements behind the thing.

― xyzzzz__, Sunday, February 10, 2019 3:13 PM (one minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I would not call what is happening right now 'Chavismo'. I think that ship sailed a long time ago, we all know the social movement has been replaced by an economy that has been in the hands of the military and that the PDVSA is barely in the hands of the people.

If that were so Maduro's vote would've collapsed completely and that just isn't the case.

Stop saying - like Fred was doing - 'we all know' or 'we can all agree'. There isn't going to be any of that.

There is no idea to engage with. You're presenting a false dichotomy - just a happy lil' American-backed coup that will quickly resolve into a liberal democracy with some privatization, no biggie. Which would, of course, be all but unprecedented in our history of regime change.

― Greta Van Show Feets BB (milo z), Sunday, February 10, 2019 3:12 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I don't think an American backed coup will quickly resolve into a liberal democracy anytime soon. I have made no such claims. Nothing will be resolved quickly. The moment they added Abrams to spearhead the whole thing I lost hope for the liberal democracy with would all wish for Venezuela in this thread. However, I'm just imagining there is quite a decent chance the situation improves under the conditions of an American-backed coup, only because the present is just that horrible and little seem to budge Maduro.

If that were so Maduro's vote would've collapsed completely and that just isn't the case.

Stop saying - like Fred was doing - 'we all know' or 'we can all agree'. There isn't going to be any of that.

― xyzzzz__, Sunday, February 10, 2019 3:21 PM (four minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

He is polling 20% and was elected fraudulently, and he replaced the entire supreme court with his lackeys. The vote has collapsed.

xp = you should read SVs posts again. The oppotisition is divided and in any case, John Bolton isn't the answer.

Part of the point is that we don't live there and while I may think its not as bad or you may think it can't get any worse ultimately we are all talking about this after the opposition leader's ridiculous action of calling himself president and the likes of Bolton moving in to a coup. Its pure news cycle talk that is built-in from an interventionist politics.

We all live in the West and comfortambly - we can't tell others thousands of miles away how to do things and who to elect, or Maduro must go when the facts aren't straight or at all clear, and the only who is absolutely clear is Fred - and he got that from watching a Venuzuelan film that won a prize in Europe. Its a total joke.

I mean Trump is going around putting some nasty pieces in the courts; the Republicans are committing electoral fraud like there's no tomorrow. This country has deported black people back to Jamaica who have lived here for decades. We can't tell Maduro to step down.

We can't tell Maduro to step down? That pony's already out of the barn.

However, I'm just imagining there is quite a decent chance the situation improves under the conditions of an American-backed coup

Its going to improve for middle-class Venuzuelans and landowners who will be ok with fascism only.

Well to be fair if a Venezuelan would think Trump should step down, I would agree with the Venezuelan.

There is enough fair journalism to know how shitty the situation is.

It's not that I am for interventionism. Is that interventionism already happened in Venezuela in such a large extent that I personally believe it is worth asking ourselves 'should we let that situation go on'? If you think that we should, then that's a fair position. I don't think we should, nor should I think Bolton and Abrams have the best solutions, far from it, just a slightly better alternative to the present.

We can't tell Maduro to step down? That pony's already out of the barn.

― A is for (Aimless), Sunday, 10 February 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Obviously the likes of Fred and Trump will tell Maduro to go - they love shouting and when anyone disagrees they will say they are doing a great job and the problem is YOU. No saving those ppl.

But I think others should take a step back from adventures in Latin America/middle-east because of so-called humanitarian reasons. That stuff is very distorted in the media, and its often caused by sanctions from western governments that are not happy the ppl might want something else. Our system of governance is broken, many of us in these rich countries are sleeping rough and children are in dire poverty. Lets look at ourselves.

Its going to improve for middle-class Venuzuelans and landowners who will be ok with fascism only.

― xyzzzz__, Sunday, February 10, 2019 3:38 PM (seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Is Guaido a fascist? A neo-liberal lackey I would accept at this point but fascism is something specific and I will wait for more information to make that claim (if you have it please link it to me).

must say an rud nua of picking one (easy target) person in each thread and petulantly referring everything mockingly back to them without any seeming point and more aggression than wit doesnt fill me with confidence that whatever radical burn-it-all-down social philosophy you're boosting atm is the answer xyzzzzz

Look at how economic loosening has been applied in the likes of Russia. Or the neo-liberal continuum in the UK that has paved the way for Brexit and the rise of insecurity for migrants. I wouldn't be welcoming neo-libs.

Again you can say what you would accept but equally you won't have to live with the consequences if it goes wrong.

xyzzzz specifically doesn’t want to burn it all down - as SV has set out above, the approach that guaido is taking risks (at best) seeming highly dubious and illegitimate and (at worst) civil war

using mexico and uruguay as honest brokers for s good faith negotiated settlement seems like the best way to thread the needle here

he can speak for himself ofc but I’m sure he’d only say “who da fuq is fred”

Apologies for this interruption. I fully admit to knowing very little about politics but I always thought the reason Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea are judged as being so much worse is that they seem to treat their people with a cruelty that Tories and Republicans can only have wet dreams about?

Darragh, do you want me to pull your ban Fred b thread?

it wouldnt be undeserved or anything but yknow i offer the above without rancour

I don't really want to see the guy banned or anything. But if anyone says things like 'sanctions are punishment' or 'lose electability to the coup plotters', or 'fuck parties that have 40% support this is nothing to me' I mean you might want to keep quiet but I don't want to be a saint, maybe you do idk.

cultural catholic man wcis

Whatever you think of the BBC its good they published this transcript of an interview with Maduro.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-47211509

http://www.welovetheiraqiinformationminister.com/images/07-minister.jpg

Rep. Omar asks if Abrams will back genocide in Venezuela like he did Guatemala. He's refusing to answer. She's not taking his BS.

— Sam Husseini (@samhusseini) February 13, 2019

Loved the US is governed by the KKK bit!

lmao @ how much is a kilo of cheese

That Corbyn bit at the end was another good lol

The Center for American Progress weighs in

I worked for Elliott Abrams as a civil servant. He is a fierce advocate for human rights and democracy. Yes, he made serious professional mistakes and was held accountable. I’m a liberal but I’m also fair. We all have a lot of work to do together in Venezuela. We share goals.

— Kelly Magsamen (@kellymagsamen) February 13, 2019

A great rationale for for moving the national capital to Guam and turning inside the Beltway into a lovely pastureland where cows may safely graze.

— Charles P. Pierce (@CharlesPPierce) February 13, 2019

Whatever you think of the BBC its good they published this transcript of an interview with Maduro.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-47211509

I think it's shameful they haven't released the video. Reporter got rinsed.

I was thinking whether its normal practice to release a full video of an interview or not? I mean I would encounter this as edited extracts in a wider report at 11pm on newsnight or something, when I used to watch it.

if they thought they'd skewered him it'd be all over newsnight

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v41/n04/tony-wood/the-battle-for-venezuela

Greg Grandin! Good.

the not-at-all-lefty National Post reports:

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is undergoing the biggest crisis of his tenure, after opposition leader Juan Guaido declared himself president and was swiftly backed by countries around the globe, led by the U.S.

In the secret cache displayed by the Maduro government were 19 assault weapons, 118 ammunition cartridges, dozens of military radio antennas and more. Putting on a show for the cameras, the government displayed AR-15 rifles, a Micro Draco semi-automatic pistol and a Colt 7.62 rifle with telescopic sights.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/was-a-u-s-cargo-jet-smuggling-arms-to-rebels-in-venezuela-these-flight-patterns-sure-look-weird

I was thinking last week that what this story needed was Richard Branson popping up out of nowhere with a weird front organisation and agitating to open the border with Colombia...

lol what jokers.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/20/pink-floyd-roger-waters-condemns-richard-branson-venezuela-aid-concert

Pink Floyd are...good now?

Another day another centrist rinsed:

Euronews journalist asks President Maduro if he recognizes Venezuela's problems.

Listen to Maduro's answer. pic.twitter.com/5vIEQYVpxb

— MV English (@MV_Eng) February 20, 2019

An extraordinary interview.

I know Elliott. He has been a colleague of mine at the Council on Foreign Relations, and I think that he is a very smart person. I think he is basically a good person and he is somebody who I don’t see as being terribly ideological. I really see him as a foreign-policy professional who has served the country a long time. I think you can certainly attack him for his role in the Iran-Contra affair. I think that’s legitimate. The fact that he did plead guilty in two misdemeanor offenses of misleading Congress, that’s never O.K., but I think it’s unfair of Congresswoman Omar to suggest that he is somehow an enabler or an apologist for genocide, because, in fact, anyone who knows anything about the history of American policy since the nineteen-seventies knows that Elliott has actually been one of the most influential and eloquent voices for putting human rights and democracy front and center in American foreign policy.

Man, xyzzzz, you've become like my youtube recs on a particularly bad day. 'Milo DESTROYS feminist'

You should give up film reviewing and go into political reporting and interview Maduro sometime. I would like to see you being DESTROYED too.

All that aside it was an excellent answer. The concern trolling from centrists only applies to countries which try a different system to capital. No one goes to this or that region in India (Maduro gives Colombia as an example) and looks at the daily struggle because they are undergoing liberal reforms and so are good.

There's literally been a Netflix show and a James Bond movie based on Columbia? It's just a straight up lie what he says. And I've read tons of articles about poverty India, which, btw, is governed by a religious populist who overthrew a basically neoliberalist regime that did all the typical reforms in the nineties. You're really living in tankie fantasist land.

I've written a really good article on depictions of politics in Indian cinema on Netflix :) I'll post it if anyone wants to google translate it.

Bond movie was about Bolivia? Unless there have been two recent Bond movies about S. American geopolitics (haven’t seen anything since QoS)

License to Kill. I'm thinking of Escobar. Unless he's claiming that 15 million Columbians has left in the last year, which I doubt very much.

But this is just a pointless debate. Anyone who thinks 'capital' is scared of Maduro is a deluded tankie. He's as much a gift to capital as Trump has been to the DSA. What's going on in Venezuela is basically the capitalist version of accelerationism.

lol sure tell that to the good folks at The Economist!

Capital doesn't have a problem with Modi who carries on the neolib reforms.

Its not about being scared of Maduro or otherwise - its about interventionism, which the US are very much keen on. His point is pretty good, what is the poverty level in Colombia or in the rest of Latin America? Nobody cares.

There's literally been a Netflix show and a James Bond movie based on Columbia?

lol fomenting a coup vs airing Narcos

lol sure tell that to the good folks at The Economist!

Capital doesn't have a problem with Modi who carries on the neolib reforms.

Its not about being scared of Maduro or otherwise - its about interventionism, which the US are very much keen on. His point is pretty good, what is the poverty level in Colombia or in the rest of Latin America? Nobody cares.

― xyzzzz__, Thursday, February 21, 2019 8:36 AM (fifty-eight minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

it's not really a very good point. the poverty level in venezuela is incredibly high and millions of its people are moving to other countries in the region for economic reasons. that's a pretty simple fact. for example chile has 200,000 venezuelans living there, a tenth of all foreign residents of the country, and the nationality that makes up the greatest proportion of foreign residents in chile. ten years ago venezuela wouldn't have been in the top 5

It’s not a good point because Venezuela is getting worse and Colombia is mostly just not getting better. It’s a valid point in the sense that nobody would use the immense poverty and displacement in Colombia, and the government’s long-term failure to address it, as the pretext for regime change. Colombia’s problems are allowed to be complex, historically-rooted and partially out of the government’s hands. Venezuela’s problems are assumed to be the fault of the dude with the moustache.

im obv opposed to regime change but i just have never been very convinced by that variety of whataboutery. and there is a difference between getting worse and not getting better of course

The US has intervened in Colombia plenty, no? + The collapse of the Venezuelan economy isn't really due to problems that are 'complex, historically rooted and partially out of the goverment's hands.' It's mostly failed oil policies...

Colombia after the violencia is a great example of how bad elite consensus rule can be for a country, though.

Also, just lol at the idea that critics of chavist Venezuela are too focused on single persons. You're an endless fount of well-informed but inane bullshit, SV.

shut the fuck up fred

^^ needs sitewide mod privs ASAP

my man

It's perfectly easy to assume the evil-worst of American involvement, i.e. Elliot Abrams, and want something better for Venezuelans than Maduro, whose government is the recipient of unnecessary hardship thanks to the United States but whose policies represent failure too. But that's for neutral arbitrators or Venezuela to sort out .

Yeah, neutral countries like Denmark! All you ilxors of the wannabe empires need to stay out of this.

Fixing Alfred's quotation upthread concerning Eliot Abrams:

one of the most influential and eloquent voices for putting abundant lip service toward human rights and democracy front and center in American foreign policy whenever it proves most expedient for US corporate interests.

im obv opposed to regime change but i just have never been very convinced by that variety of whataboutery. and there is a difference between getting worse and not getting better of course

― ( ͡☉ ͜ʖ ͡☉) (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 21 February 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Would US intervention make things "not getting better" and is that enough for you? What would be the price that most non-white Venezuelans pay for that? It might take the pressure off Chile or what would a Venezuelan civil war mean for Chile? I know you are not for intervention either but you are fond of the word "whataboutery" but do your lines of thinking amount to US intervention and who would benefit?

But that's for neutral arbitrators or Venezuela to sort out

NO, it is for Venezuelans ONLY to sort out - with neutral, good-faith arbitrators and only if Venezuelans want it.

Take another example in Zimbawe - evil Mugabe is now gone. Is life any better for its people? I am sure we could google and find out via reports or the odd blog from far away, but we really wouldn't know. And anyway it doesn't matter because its off the news. There is something wrong in getting to grips with a country now and then just because we don't take too kindly to its leader and the news needs to fill us in.

And what are our leaders like anyway? In the UK we see what nice sounding liberals like Cameron have bought, and what the country might turn into. A lot of it is that we in the West don't like anything off the liberal path but we see what hell the UK and US are for a lot of people. SVs point is quite good there. But our understanding is limited.

On top of that, imagine what some of the ppl drawing up foreign policy are like. Some don't even get it, others are Trump-like watching fucking Narcos on Neflix like cunts and seriously bringing that to a discussion.

Take another example in Zimbawe - evil Mugabe is now gone. Is life any better for its people?

the same regime is in power. would be the equivalent of maduro stepping aside for someone else in the PSUV

im obv opposed to regime change but i just have never been very convinced by that variety of whataboutery. and there is a difference between getting worse and not getting better of course
― ( ͡☉ ͜ʖ ͡☉) (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 21 February 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Would US intervention make things "not getting better" and is that enough for you? What would be the price that most non-white Venezuelans pay for that? It might take the pressure off Chile or what would a Venezuelan civil war mean for Chile? I know you are not for intervention either but you are fond of the word "whataboutery" but do your lines of thinking amount to US intervention and who would benefit?

im not bothered about venezuelan immigration to chile - other than venezuelans being given preferential treatment while the conservative government simultaneously makes it harder for people to immigrate from other less developed countries in the americas, especially haiti.

whataboutery i am fond of because saying "columbia has poverty too" while you preside over a failing state isn't a fucking argument, all arguments in a similar vein carry no water at all, and they're a personal bugbear.

as I'm explicitly against US intervention your question regarding that is basically a non-sequitur.

NO, it is for Venezuelans ONLY to sort out - with neutral, good-faith arbitrators and only if Venezuelans want it.

I thought I implied the latter, but I suppose "and" did too much work.

Seems like it's getting worse this weekend, btw: https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/the_americas/venezuela-braces-for-possible-conflict-ahead-of-oppositions-push-to-deliver-humanitarian-aid

oh well. google the headline...

whataboutery i am fond of because saying "columbia has poverty too" while you preside over a failing state isn't a fucking argument, all arguments in a similar vein carry no water at all, and they're a personal bugbear.

I get where you are coming from but in this specific example, you have a country with, what, 4m internally displaced refugees?, many of whom are in abject poverty, pulling stunts with hundreds of tonnes of rotting food in order to gain international public support for their troops to be able to roll across the border. Pushing back on whether poverty alleviation is the core objective and highlighting that the two countries share some of the same issues is legit. As you say, it’s not an answer for why Venezuela is getting worse, in itself, though.

rotting food? link?

It goes without saying that hundreds of thousands are suffering in Venezuela, and the instinct to alleviate that suffering is a healthy one. But a craven marketing stunt by far-right Cold Warriors—without any buy-in from actual aid organizations—cannot be taken at face value.

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/the-u-s-venezuela-aid-convoy-story-is-clearly-bogus-but-no-one-wants-to-say-it/

fred stop

lol, Adam Johnson at truthdig. And even that bullshitter doesn't claim that the food will be rotting. Bravo.

la cosa está que arde. Hoping tomorrow isn't too horrible

the same regime is in power. would be the equivalent of maduro stepping aside for someone else in the PSUV

― ( ͡☉ ͜ʖ ͡☉) (jim in vancouver), Thursday, 21 February 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Which of course would not be enough for the US or whoever. Similarly Corbyn stepping aside wouldn't be enough unless that person was Chris Leslie.

whataboutery i am fond of because saying "columbia has poverty too" while you preside over a failing state isn't a fucking argument, all arguments in a similar vein carry no water at all, and they're a personal bugbear.

screaming "whataboutery" isn't enough either. Its not an argument so much as the lines of thinking and sheer hypocrisy of the West. The UK has murdered disabled and vulnerable benefit claimants - why shouldn't we be invaded? Why shouldn't there be people throwing food and money from boats? If it sounds ridiculous then that's what you are getting at the moment. Let your Danish internet film critic scream "bullshit" and don't join in - the only road from "whataboutery" is going "maybe the opposition isn't so bad they will throw crumbs at the poor Venezuelan blacks". We know a negotiated solution wouldn't satisfy white people who are thosands of miles away.

lol:

The human rights crisis that has engulfed #Venezuela for the past few years has shattered the lives of millions of people. Here’s what you need to know. https://t.co/ea9klXpLX5

— Amnesty International (@amnesty) February 19, 2019

"10. Damaging US sanctions."

Is there an invasion yet? Don’t know why xyz talks about an invasion. In any case, the absolute failure for some people in this thread to see that this was never about sovereignity of plucky little Venezuela but two imperial dicks waving at each other on the corpse of hilariously stupid economic policies is staggering. Economic sanctions and Abrams are shit; so are the russian-armed military who has control of the economy (that’s not socialism imo).

Venezuelans won’t be allowed to sort it out because that is what dictators do not allow. The last elections were fraudulant, lots of people have a hard time finding food or medecine, the military and judiciary are in the President’s camp and Maduro seems very intent into not giving his position away. How can people make a choice in those conditions?

otm

What is all this about "russian-armed military who has control of the economy" wtf. Fred give us a link!

Of course there has been no invasion, atm its parts ridiculous noise but there are sanctions and much pressure being put.

There is no good faith from the side of the opposition that I've seen at all. The path to talks, leading up to elections doesn't look good and there are perfetly fine reasons for that.

VHS otm

Amuse yourselves with this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/feb/23/venezuela-brazil-border-aid-live-news-latest-updates

An invasion isn't exactly crazy talk. With Venezuela no longer controlling its border, Brazil taking control (by encroaching on Venezuelan territory) isn't unthinkable.

Man I have seen thinly veiled plans before but this veil is close to nonexistent https://t.co/soLTGGyxQA

— Vincent Bevins (@Vinncent) February 24, 2019

Bevins is quite good in general imo.

Yeah there is no veil and I can not believe Maduro was dumb enough to fall for this.

Jokes, I totally did, Maduro is scum and Maduro is dumb. If he cared a slightest bit about the Venezuelan people he would start looking at ways to transition away, some non-imperalist countries gave him a chance and he kept his this dangerous position.

wtf

pic.twitter.com/ZwxbWyV1HF

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) February 24, 2019

The game all along. Libya has been turned into a slave market and its migrants have died tried to find a better life in Europe but never mind all that Maduro is dumb and has bought this all on himself "VHS otm".

I've seen that Rubio tweet about 20 times today and I'm not sure I can articulate how angry and sad it makes me

If you think that's wonderful, imagine living in a city with a huge concentration of well-intentioned Venezuelan exiles and their ill-intentioned Cuban supporters for whom that Rubio treat was *chef's kiss*

I was a little skeptical at first, but after listening to Marco Rubio I am more convinced than ever that we need to militarily intervene in Miami

— Mark (@haircut_hippie) February 24, 2019

I'd demand international arbitration, for example from Lakeland, Hialeah, Vero Beach, and Orlando.

Maybe together we can find a solution <-- someone who has never been to Miami.

🔥 30 years ago today in Venezuela: the mass rebellion against neoliberalism known as the Caracazo, which ended in the massacre of 300 to 3,000, most dumped in mass graves. Today, neoliberals claim the mantle of human rights as they try to do the same. Never forget! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/7szkyaGZv3

— George Ciccariello-Maher (@ciccmaher) February 27, 2019

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/10/world/americas/venezuela-aid-fire-video.html?fbclid=IwAR38QIoZuJWFPRevl2HbkQtlI1p1aqdhV7V8gzflbgxxEpf6ClzQ9ggv4zg

Unlike Rubio to get his facts wrong in tweets...

Lmao holy shit Marco Rubio is so dumb pic.twitter.com/HGR4TsM8GW

— liking online (@likingonline) March 10, 2019

There was a report in an Argentine newspaper a few days ago suggesting Pence had been assured by Guaido that half the army would switch sides as soon as the US recognised him as President and that Pence is now fuming that hasn’t happened, though I’m not sure how credible the source is.

Lol, I was just coming here to post that tweet.

Thought this revive would be for

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/10/world/americas/venezuela-aid-fire-video.html

It was.

Mobile ilx makes me even more of a dumbass than normal

Thread title makes it sounds like it some sort of fun ironic game to place bets on a potential war/civil war and I think it sucks.

i agree
none of this is funny nor is it idly amusing

It sucks but many of you are basically backing a lot of pro-coup rhetoric. I wouldn't worry about a thread title that was written years before this year's events.

Wanting free and impartial elections in Venezuela is not exactly backing pro-coup rhetoric, nor is it pointing out that Maduro's regime constitutes a coup itself.

The United States doesn’t need to invade the country. It just needs to target the bank accounts, Miami properties, and kleptocratic networks exploited by these corrupt Venezuelan officials

https://thinkprogress.org/venezuelas-kleptocratic-partner-in-crime-america/

Currently: imperialist mouthpiece cosplaying as news station MSNBC has the wife of Venezuelan opposition leader Guaido labeled as "Venezuelan First Lady" - which is categorically, undeniably false - on live national TV. The actual Venezuelan First Lady is legendary Cilia Flores. pic.twitter.com/35DvPsUIxY

— basura (@HalfAtlanta) March 27, 2019

maduro is going to allow aid to enter

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/world/americas/red-cross-venezuela-aid.html

Is this the time for Fred to shine? Reports of a coup under way (it's in The Guardian front page anyway)

Looks like it.

People on Twitter are dismissing. Tbh it's all based on a video from Guaido's account.

There’s about twelve soldiers. The idea seems to be to use it as a trigger to get people out onto the streets rather than actually being able to do much militarily.

marco_rubio_cumface.gif

Government claims it's under control, and I'm inclined to believe them. Does not seem as if the people has risen up.

Look at the baby cry

One of Venezuela’s best journalists reporting that today’s action was planned for another day, and had strong military support - but they had to bring it forward because Guaido’s arrest was imminent, and then the military backed out https://t.co/65PLT8tbLZ

— Brian Winter (@BrazilBrian) April 30, 2019

kinda feel like if maduro was gonna arrest him he’d have done it by now

well he definitely be getting arrested now so we'll never know

if that "strong military support" was really strong, it seems to me it wouldn't back out at the first hint of difficulty.

A lot to unpack in that tweet.

Just love how that was the top story in The Guardian website for the afternoon, whereas there was very little by comparison on Twitter -- and that what you got from Twitter was more accurate in the end.

it's a big story. is there another coup attempt going on that i missed?

Bolton and Guaido seem about as good at bringing peace to Venezuela as Kushner and MBS has been at bringing peace to the Middle East...

Well so far the 'coup' is a video of Guaido's saying stuff with a few soldiers in the background that was posted from his twitter. That isn't news, unless you mean there is something else.

xp to Jim

Are we sure they are soldiers, or are they just dressed like soldiers?

When I think of democracy the first thing that comes to mind is guns and tanks, yes. https://t.co/GUJ2wtzzIr

— Doug Henwood (@DougHenwood) April 30, 2019

also the masses of the people on the streets around important centers of power including the ministry of defense and la carlota air force base.

https://s1.latercera.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/vene4-700x450.jpg

"nothing happening"

(or actually opposing groups of civilians confronting each other, national guard out water-cannoning people and shooting teargas. gunshots

Are these masses of people quantitatively or qualitatively different from the masses who were rallying for Guaido a couple of months ago?

Thanks Jim, literally it was just that video of Guaido for much of the time. Seeing a bit more now..

Looking at that tank running at ppl, and from that it looks like the coup attempt will fail..

Are these masses of people quantitatively or qualitatively different from the masses who were rallying for Guaido a couple of months ago?

― A is for (Aimless), Tuesday, April 30, 2019 11:16 AM (fourteen minutes ago) Bookmark

guaido specifically directed his supporters to that specific air force base (and other places) and his supporters and chavez supporters are there clashing. the national guard is also there

el pais has live video streaming https://elpais.com/internacional/2019/04/30/actualidad/1556618727_875831.html

it's not very illuminating but certainly shows that events are taking place

Sounds like the same popular stalemate as before, with the armed forces still on the side of Maduro as the decisive make-weight. Maybe another Iraqi Kurdish uprising or Hungarian uprising of 1956 in the making?

If really Maduro cared about his people he would have at least have internationally monitored elections by now.

don't worry guys, america's best and brightest minds are on the case

don't worry everyone Erik Prince is gonna sort this out

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-erikprince-exclusi/exclusive-blackwater-founders-latest-sales-pitch-mercenaries-for-venezuela-idUSKCN1S608F

the el pais live streaming is interesting, in a low-key way. listless protestors throwing stones from behind the cover of a wheely bin, equally listless national guard firing tear gas from an overpass while their colleagues josh around in the background

no successful coup today.

Insta-conspiracy theory: Maduro knew the CIA would be sounding out military officers to participate in a coup, so he obligingly provided them with some.

VENEZUELA: US Secretary of State Pompeo tells @CNN @wolfblitzer that Maduro was ready to leave Venezuela this morning, but dissuaded by Russia - @kylieatwood

— Conflict News (@Conflicts) April 30, 2019

Genuinely impressed anyone could say that with a straight face.

Guaido's 'UK representative' has just repeated it - with a straight face - on Newsnight.

Maduro is very obviously working within the sphere of Russian’s influence.

Now I doubt with this military support that he will ever leave.

Lol doubt even The Guardian is saying this but you do you.

Maybe if I read this if I can get past the headline.

Former bus driver Nicolás Maduro clings to wheel in Venezuela https://t.co/UKri7OzEbx

— The Guardian (@guardian) April 30, 2019

Kissinger or the Dulles brothers woulda gotten the coup done like *snap*

you couldn't ask for a clearer indication of america's decline

It's the 2nd Anniversary of Fyre Festival—See What the Key Players Are Up To Now

Juan Guiado is the Venezuelan Owen Smith

— Bela Lugosi's Red (@GAYLEXITNOW) April 30, 2019

Lol doubt even The Guardian is saying this but you do you.

Maybe if I read this if I can get past the headline.

― xyzzzz__, Wednesday, May 1, 2019 3:35 AM (eleven hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/venezuela-russia-rosneft/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/as-maduro-confronts-a-crisis-russias-footprint-in-venezuela-grows/2019/03/29/fcf93cec-50b3-11e9-bdb7-44f948cc0605_story.html?utm_term=.7cfadacf3a65

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/08/world/americas/russia-venezuela-maduro-putin.html

MOSCOW — On a rainy afternoon this week, a group of Russian officials and oil executives gathered for Mass in a Catholic church tucked away behind the imposing secret service headquarters in central Moscow.

They did not come to pray. Instead, they were commemorating the late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez, who poured billions of dollars into Russian weapons and machinery, and showing support for his embattled successor, Nicolás Maduro.

Mr. Maduro is fighting to save the political system he and Mr. Chávez have built, with Russian support, for two decades. Mr. Maduro’s catastrophic economic mismanagement has led the opposition to claim the country’s leadership with the support of the United States, the European Union and most South American nations.

Tell me if you need more.

Venezuela is under sanctions so it will get cash from wherever. Don't see how it goes from that to Russia having a say on whether Maduro goes or not.

Tell me if you need more

if any of these days of protests look like ending in a successful takeover of power maduro will be on his way to cuba quicker than you can grill an arepa

Russian meddling and influence started long before economic sanctions.

i am reminded of something fidel told allende with reference to the soviet union when he visited chile. something along the lines of "remember they need you as much as you need them". his point was that these relationships are a two-way street. even more so now that the former soviet union is now the much weaker, and less influential russian federation. a good example of this is the relationship between the u.s. and israel. the u.s. give massive support to israel, but you could never say that the government there just acts at the behest of the u.s. see the fractious relationship between obama and netanyahu for an example. symbiosis is the order of the day in these things. if maduro wants to go he'll go, ascribing everything bad to russia is manichean, and assuming actors in the global south are just puppets is condescending (this goes for guaido too).

4 billions in weapons from Russia during Chavez era + joint military exercises, onwards with the Bolivarian revolution!

xpost

Yeah I agree to a certain extent, it is true that sometimes interests just aligns. My two point are mainly that the notion that Maduro is a benevolent protector of Venezuela's sovereignty vs imperial interests are naive. The two way street relationships could exist with other more peaceful nations but there is a reason both Chavez and Maduro chose the Russia-China sorta coalition. It is not the EU or Canada that puts lots of journalists in prison. My other point is that as long Russia credits the Maduro regime and sell weapons, Maduro will stay in power. He has abused his military power to win the last elections and as of right now, it is the military who can do the necessary exchange of currency for to obtain primary needs, meaning a whole bunch of generals are getting rich of the disaster. Considering his past behavior, and Putin's past behavior, and how lamentable whatever Guaido tried to do yesterday, I don't see how or why the tyrants would change course right now.

It is not the EU or Canada that puts lots of journalists in prison

They kill them in Malta.

... and Slovakia.

And Northern Ireland.

Am I doing this right?

No.

Yes freedom of the press is equivalent in Austria and Venezuela. Absolutely. Bravo guys.

"It is not the EU or Canada that puts lots of journalists in prison."

Plenty of other people EU and Canada kill and mis-treat, if that's the road you wanna walk.

No-one mentioned Austria but, since you have, another wonderful EU country with Nazis in its government.

Heh, Venezuela is just ahead of Russia:

https://rsf.org/en/ranking

I mean, I'm not about to support Maduro but LOL @ the EU as some kind of exemplar of democracy and freedom - home of Orban, the FPO, the Law and Justice Party, Salvini...

And even with all these terrible people and parties, it remains a much freer place than Maduro's Venezuela. Post and pre-2018 economic sanctions. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

LOL @ the EU as some kind of exemplar of democracy and freedom

This is such a weird sentiment

The EU is a fairly decentralized entity that also happens to be home to exemplars of democracy and freedom? Which are ever relative terms to begin with? Because no country could ever live up to the kind of absolutist standards you no doubt have in mind, at least not in the foreseeable future?

How do you know what I have in mind?

I tell you what's weird, using Canada and the EU as a stick to beat Maduro!

Sorry I should have used Australia and Norway.

xp: It's not really what anybody here is doing, but it wouldn't be weird at all?

Seems pretty arbritrary to wheel out the EU as a comparison for Venezuela?

I mean,

And even with all these terrible people and parties, it remains a much freer place than Maduro's Venezuela. Post and pre-2018 economic sanctions. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yah boo sucks or what?

The comparison was with China and Russia, as potential alliance partners.

In the context of my post I was speaking about mutual interests and how Russia and Venezuela's aligns as opposed to say, western nations.

And Canada?

Russia, China, the EU, Canada?

What are you even talking about.

Potential alliance partners, instead of Russia and China? Canada.

The EU is a fairly decentralized entity that also happens to be home to exemplars of democracy and freedom? Which are ever relative terms to begin with? Because no country could ever live up to the kind of absolutist standards you no doubt have in mind, at least not in the foreseeable future?

― pomenitul, Wednesday, 1 May 2019 Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Well certain liberal standards are being used against Venezuela but the whole picture isn't being looked at.

Yanukovich, Karapetyan, Bouteflika, etc, highlight pretty clearly that a Russian line of credit and arms sales don’t guarantee much in the face of popular protests capable of shutting down a country. Guaido’s ongoing problem is that there isn’t enough support and the more he messes up with stunts like yesterday, the more that support evaporates.

Eh, his problem is that the military is staying loyal. And in a military dictatorship, that's a problem.

Bouteflika lasted two decades. I sincerely hope Maduro won't last half as long.

what stake do you have irl w/r/t uncritically supporting the worst sort of US interventionism? Did you support the contras in Nicaragua as well? Pro tip: anyone the US supports is bad, full stop.

See, sleeve, it reads like parody, but I get the feeling you mean it?

Can you give a single counter example where US involvement improved the baseline wellbeing of the population?

have heard good things about the Marshall PLan

You should stick to films, where you actually seem to have a clue

Marshall Plan was not intervention, it was cleanup

If it's intervention you want, something happened right before the Marshall Plan which I know my country was quite happy with.

And sorry for saying involvement when I meant i tervention

OK then let's talk about the last 65 years, come on

Balkan?

Nope, look up the Stasi Trg mines and follow the money

Good try though

Also that was not unilateral

Again, reads like parody.

Pot meet kettle

I was speaking about mutual interests and how Russia and Venezuela's aligns as opposed to say, western nations.

ah, now I understand why the uk is so closely allied with saudi arabia

what stake do you have irl w/r/t uncritically supporting the worst sort of US interventionism? Did you support the contras in Nicaragua as well? Pro tip: anyone the US supports is bad, full stop.

― Emperor Tonetta Ketchup (sleeve), Wednesday, May 1, 2019 6:22 PM (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Saying US involvement sucks doesn't contradict the notion that Russian involvement sucks even more. Plus looking at the history of US involvement, Venezuela is at the moment, very far from the worst. Also very far from the worst Russia has offered outside and within its borders. As for the idea that anyone the US supports is bad, full stop, I don't know what constitutes good to you but US involvement in Taiwan and South Korea are much better than the alternatives they were facing. Realist foreign policy is a scourge, but let's not pretend that the US are the only one doing it being hawkish fuckery in this world. And any position in which you are mad for Gaido demonstrating opposition (which seems weird to me if you believe in democracy) and economic sanctions, you also have to be mad at the notion Rosneft as collected half the bonds of PVSDA and that Maduro has falsified the latest elections and the humanitarian crisis the citizens are facing. I'm mad at both. I don't think Bolton or Trump or Rubio are doing anything good to alleviate the situation, but let's remember that Maduro was offered a fair and peaceful electoral process and denied it.

My position answers this crucial question: under which sphere of influence can choose their future? I think that could possibly happen within the influence of the US/Europe and with elections. I don't think it will ever happen with North Korea/Russia/China/Turkey/Iran which are more or less the countries that are sustaining Maduro's power at the moment, who refuses elections.

It's weird to live in Miami, where just about every one of my Venezuelan students loathes Trump with every corpuscle in their body, is liberal on just about every position we debate here, yet wants Maduro gone. I can't judge them.

You should stick to films, where you actually seem to have a clue

guess what?

Lol. As if the fucking Marshall Plan is anything comparable to what America is up to in Central and South America.

Shitshow

It's weird to live in Miami, where just about every one of my Venezuelan students loathes Trump with every corpuscle in their body, is liberal on just about every position we debate here, yet wants Maduro gone. I can't judge them.

― recriminations from the nitpicking woke (Alfred, Lord Sotosyn), 2. maj 2019 04:12 (five hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I don't think this is weird at all? It's a battle between two autocrats, we don't actually have to take sides, it's okay to want both of them gone.

Tertium non datur, Fred. There can be no other way.

To be liberal and want Maduro gone is totally on line with what I'd expect. It's all over this thread as well.

but let's remember that Maduro was offered a fair and peaceful electoral process and denied it.

When was this?

The US and Guaido position aiui is that Guaido is the President and elections will follow at some unspecified point in the future but that Maduro can’t take part in them.

The EU has frequently called for new elections but, to date, that hasn’t been the position of the Venezuelan opposition or the US - there hasn’t been any guarantee that the former would participate or the latter would recognise. It has only been in the last few days that the domestic opposition (and the improbably-named Stalin Gonzalez) have suggested that new elections might be a way of resolving the issue but idk if that is ‘policy’ as such.

There is every chance that, if an internationally-mediated negotiation took place and new elections were on the table, that Maduro would reject them but there hasn’t been an internationally-mediated negotiation yet.

By and large, I think the opposition uniting behind a call for new elections would be much more tactically effective in getting people out on the street than trying to get them to recognise Guaido fwiw.

but let's remember that Maduro was offered a fair and peaceful electoral process and denied it.
When was this?

How about last year?

That Guaido = Owen Smith tweet is totally otm. If the US did it right then surely they needed someone from the military. Maybe it's the liberal disease of wanting to appear credible by backing a career politician.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton just left Pentagon following meeting with acting defense secretary Patrick Shanahan in secure conference room known as ‘The Tank’ to discuss military options for Venezuela, per senior defense official

— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) May 3, 2019

i’m sure this military intervention will be the one where america finally gets it right

Fewer than 100,000 civilian casualties, then?

John Bolton determined to be Dumb Kissinger to the Dumb Nixon, huh?

Fewer than 100,000 civilian casualties, then?

sad Brazil / ILX film squad convergence

Bolsonaro’s government just declared that Kleber Mendonça Filho has 30 days to return R$2.2 million of financing from NEIGHBORING SOUNDS. That’s over $550,000 for a film that was released in 2012. https://t.co/H2D0Eh6gtm

— Violet Lucca (@unbuttonmyeyes) May 3, 2019

https://mariannewrites.home.blog/2019/05/11/fellow-progressives-stop-hurting-venezuelans/

^that author is fully conversant with the crimes of Maduro, but seems not to fully examine the consequences of Guaido embracing Trump & Bolton's path for Venezuela as the price of US support. The lukewarm support for Guaido she hears voiced by US progressives is due to their long experience with neo-cons and the consequences of neo-con policies. She clearly sees the frying pan Venezualans are in, but doesn't see the fire that they shall be jumping into if Guaido becomes a dependent US client.

Assuming that a latin american does not know the long history of US intervention in Latin America is exactly what she is criticising.

Is she really arguing Venezuela would be better off turning into Guatemala?

Yeah the leader of the Popular Will, a party that has been recognized within the sphere of the Socialist International, his only goal is to turn the nation into a humanitarian crisis of unseen proportions. And horrible fascists states like Sweden (gasp!) and Iceland (oh no!) and Costa Rica (yikes!) are fully behind the notion that only a destroyed and plundered Venezuela is what is best for Venezuelans, including this writer who's trauma of having to leave her nation because of tyrant is really starting point of misunderstanding the situation to a degree only white dudes from beautiful campus can truly understand.

his only goal is to turn the nation into a humanitarian crisis of unseen proportions.

If it comes to a US military intervention in aid of Guaido, which is very certainly on Bolton's Christmas list whether or not this is Guaido's present policy or intention, it very well could become a humanitarian crisis even more destructive and deadly than the humanitarian crisis already caused by Maduro's misgovernment. If the US government were not currently in the hands of men willing to inflict incalculable suffering on "enemy" nations, I would feel far more secure in the future course of US involvement as likely to bring benefit to the Venezuelan people. Trump & Bolton are capable of doing worse than Nixon & Kissinger, or Bush & Cheney.

Yes, there is a long list of shit that could make the current crisis much worse. I think anyone is intelligent enough to understand that there can be ways in which Guaido becomes an interim president that presides over fair elections without having a civil war going on. I just think that negating whatever the Venezuelans diaspora is expressing is not going to help the situation, I think sanitizing Maduro (which is not something I have seen much here but I have seen elsewhere) is really not going to help. Claiming any support of Guaido is ideologically is neo-con is also not going to help. And also it is stupid. Some people need to stop with this stupid left-right dichotomy. Proof is that Trump does it.

Someone from Venezuela:

Instead of supporting Guaidó’s work, progressives in North America have chosen to given vague and evasive statements (e.g. Bernie Sanders or Jagmeet Singh), or even to go as far as to voice their support of Maduro’s dictatorship (e.g. Ilhan Omar), often ignoring the pleas of their own Venezuelan constituents. They justify this by imposing North American political narratives on an incredibly unique and complex situation.

Aimless immediately:

that author is fully conversant with the crimes of Maduro, but seems not to fully examine the consequences of Guaido embracing Trump & Bolton's path for Venezuela as the price of US support. The lukewarm support for Guaido she hears voiced by US progressives is due to their long experience with neo-cons and the consequences of neo-con policies. She clearly sees the frying pan Venezualans are in, but doesn't see the fire that they shall be jumping into if Guaido becomes a dependent US client.

"But since interim president Juan Guaidó started his efforts to restore democracy in Venezuela"

A bowl of wrong from this girl.

"I think anyone is intelligent enough to understand that there can be ways in which Guaido becomes an interim president that presides over fair elections without having a civil war going on."

You overestimate Guaido's intelligence.

You are embarassing.

Got quite hurt, then I turned off the kilfile for a second. VHS OTM.

Haha @ "got quite hurt"

often ignoring the pleas of their own Venezuelan constituents

No one individual has custody of the narrative about what the author admits is "an incredibly unique and complex situation". To confirm this, all one has to do is to compare the widely divergent narratives of US citizens regarding immigration. If the USA chooses an aggressive policy in regard to Venezuela, as guided by Bolton and Trump, I highly doubt that it will be informed by the Venezuelan constituents the author aligns with and what she will get instead is Bolton & gang justifying their actions "by imposing North American political narrative on an incredibly unique and complex situation".

iow, she doesn't see US policy will be trapped in its North American political narrative, regardless of her ardent desires for Venezuelans to be in charge of Venezuela's fate. Intervention comes in a lot of flavors, but I stand by my observation that she is imagining her preferred outcome will prevail, not arguing persuasively how there is a probable path to that outcome.

Once again this purely the POV of a western witness.

With everything that has been laid down, if you can't understand how there is a path for the left and centre-left to help Guaido make fair elections happen without resorting to apocalyptic scenarios involving Abrams/Bolton/Trump then I suggest you take a step back from your personal preferences and biases. I hate Trump too. I will oppose any military intervention by the US and I have no trust Bolton and Abrams will find the right solution for Venezuela. I still support Guaido and fair elections and those things are not mutually exclusive. Maybe it is unfortunate that the opposition, the diaspora, reasonable governments across the world and Trump have chosen the same opposition leader as the hope for Venezuelan democracy, but I refuse to play the idiotic left vs right zero sum game. Or to show my woke understanding of the US military history and silence the voices of Venezuelans.

Once again this purely the POV of a western witness.

Yes. How true.

I still support Guaido and fair elections and those things are not mutually exclusive.

As I recall, the author of the piece did not say that the majority of US progressives were against Guaido or fair elections, mostly because this would not be true. Her complaint was about 'lukewarmness' from these sources.

I refuse to play the idiotic left vs right zero sum game.

Most people are already there with you, if you'd take the time to notice.

but I refuse to play the idiotic left vs right zero sum game

You are brave and I, for one, salute you

Juan Guaidó travels around with “a personal astrologer.” pic.twitter.com/FRnkKlZDO6

— Tim Gill (@timgill924) June 4, 2019

tfw u explain to your advisor why you're dropping a chapter from your dissertation pic.twitter.com/HAucsDeOJz

— Peter Labuza (@labuzamovies) June 20, 2019

Fred and Van Horn Street RIP

He's got a bigger regime change to worry about now.

Obviously I’m very happy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/04/world/americas/venezuela-police-abuses.html

One for the imperialists on the board:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/21/venezuelan-leader-nicolas-maduro-confirms-months-of-secret-us-talks

Cool scenes:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/13/juan-guaido-faces-questions-over-links-to-organised-groups

Meanwhile in Bolivia :-(

Jon has good sources in Bolivia; one close to Morales says he was forced to resign and this should be considered a coup https://t.co/WBqYxaxOEA

— Vincent Bevins (@Vinncent) November 10, 2019

This is super depressing.

Evo Morales’ government has transformed Bolivia, giving dignity to millions of workers, peasants and indigenous people.

The imperialist coup against him must be condemned. Full solidarity with the Bolivian people in their struggle for sovereignty, justice and democracy.

— Momentum (@PeoplesMomentum) November 10, 2019

'My sin was being indigenous, leftist and anti-imperialist' - Evo #Morales on his resignation pic.twitter.com/48YWDTR6LM

— Ruptly (@Ruptly) November 11, 2019

this was Evo's predecessor. Spanish speakers will notice that he cannot even speak Spanish properly. That's because he had spent all his life in the US before becoming President of Bolivia. https://t.co/kCcKdFwFWp

— Flavia Dzodan (@redlightvoices) November 11, 2019

This quote from an Al Jazeera article expresses my sense of what's happened.

Cochabamba feminist activist Maria Fernandez told Al Jazeera: "Evo's last two terms in office were marked by corruption, arrogance and a disregard for the people who put him into power. But I'm not celebrating his resignation because I'm afraid that this is a takeover by religious extremists who are anti-women and racist."

Yes there have been (like in Venezuela) criticisms from the left..

My father was born and raised in La Paz, and I still have family there---many of whom have moved to Santa Cruz, so you can understand what their perspective on this would be. But the religious aspect of Luis Fernando Camacho's rise is a new aspect of Bolivian politics.

And just on that

Fascists burning the wiphala and declaring that "Bolivia belongs to Christ" is meant as a threat of violence to Natives across South America.

Yes, it hits especially hard for Aymaras and Quechuas.

Yes, I'm feeling pretty angry and f**ked up.

Yes, we will survive this too. ✊🏾🌈

— Daniel Delgado (@DDelgadoVive) November 11, 2019

Bolivia's politics have been built on racism since the colonial era (despite many of us being mestizo). It has shaped my life and the life of every Boliviano I've known. The sexism and homophobia now being highlighted by "El Macho" is newly explicit, though obviously it has been present since forever like everywhere else. Women have long been active participants in Evo's MAS movement, so the new amplification of racism and sexism is not unexpected.

Neither are Camacho's links to the gas industry. Bolivia under Evo was a narcostate (and the good and bad of that can be talked about, I say that merely as description, not judgment), but under the right it will be a gas state. For the Spanish it was a silver state. For the Chinese or the Germans it would be a lithium state. At least the coca industry is indigenous. Otherwise Bolivia is just another place for the capitalists to loot, as it's been since my ancestors went there to do just that.

https://www.nodal.am/2019/11/quien-es-luis-fernando-camacho-el-hombre-que-intenta-desestabilizar-bolivia/

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/your-complete-guide-to-the-n-y-times-support-of-u-s-backed-coups-in-latin-america/

I don't know, term limits are super important.

Good/interesting thread on some of the complexities at work (and the difficulty of sorting social media takes)

People need to trouble their liberal (mis)understanding and (mis)use of identity. Here's an example:

Tomasa Yarhui is an indigenous Quechua political "voice" from Bolivia. She's also a center-right Christian Democrat, here mourning the death of a violent coup-supporting cop. https://t.co/har2g9pVOk

— #HandsOffBolivia (@OLAASM) November 12, 2019

I’m mostly sympathetic to Morales, I hope his party can thrive, but really I don’t think anyone should be the head of government for more than 14 years

What was the response of pro-Morales voices re: him ignoring the results of the 2016 referendum?

Maduro retweets post mocking the crudeness of Bolivian interim president-designate Áñez's new video calling for the Bolivian army to intervene, with the tweet remarking they never would think they would ever see a "more improvised and crap production than those of Juan Guaidó". pic.twitter.com/5QKUQvt3zX

— Séamus Malekafzali (@Seamus_Malek) November 12, 2019

Does anyone know what was wrong with Alvaro Garcia Linera since he never got to run?

I generally trust the OAS but reports that the head of electoral commission turned herself to the police to report irregularities is much more damning.

A far-right supporter of failed Venezuelan coup leader Juan Guaido got punched in the face by an Afro-Brazilian today when he tried to invade and occupy the Venezuelan embassy in Brazil with other Guaido supporters. pic.twitter.com/rMzOkswJyb

— redfish (@redfishstream) November 13, 2019

I love this pic

One thing I notice over and over again is how "anti-government protestors" in e.g. Bolivia and Venezuela read as "normal folks" to American eyes, when in reality their North Face and Nike reflects extraordinary local wealth.

anti-Morales protestors:
https://storage.googleapis.com/afs-prod/media/0ea3e96ac5754cbfab60d95f8c46e359/1000.jpeg

pro-morales protestor:
https://i.cbc.ca/1.5358740.1573687837!/cpImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_780/bolivia-protests.jpg

I remember Venezuelan protests a few years back where every protestor looked like they had just dropped a thousand bucks on camping gear at L.L. Bean.

https://systemicalternatives.org/2019/11/11/what-happened-in-bolivia-was-there-a-coup/"> https://systemicalternatives.org/2019/11/11/what-happened-in-bolivia-was-there-a-coup/

Good article

It is by a source you can trust, and he dispels both typical left/right narratives by eager western commentators but still details how this is a horror show. Available in sopanish and french too.

I wouldn’t take a few carefully selected photos as a source for anything.

I love this pic

idk the MLK t-shirt makes it a little incongruous

Sorry writing from phone on a bus.

I mean, no doubt, but it's pretty consistent. What's remarkable to me is not so much the difference between the two groups as how the American eye (mine, at least) tends to just slide right over the expensively-clothed right-wingers in photos and scan them as "normal", when they're really not

That article seemed pretty one-sided to me, and the site in general kinda seems like a Catholic-backed propaganda outlet

How could Áñez become acting president without a parliamentary quorum?

4. The government has treated the mobilisation as a fascist and racist coup. It is true that the sectors of the reactionary right have celebrated the protests. In Santa Cruz, the main leader of the Civic Committee, Luis Fernando Camacho, comes from an ultra-right organisation called the Union of Cruceño Youth. However, in other cities, there have been quite different articulations by independent groups with politicians from right and left leading the protests. In Potosí, the opposition to the government radicalised before the elections due to the signing of a 70 year contract without payment of royalties for the production of lithium hydroxide in the salt flats of Uyuni. In the case of La Paz, the National Committee for the Defense of Democracy counts among its main leaders two Ombudsman who served under the Evo Morales government and had denounced human rights violations such as the repression of the indigenous march of TIPNIS in 2011. For his part, Carlos Mesa, who was vice president during the neoliberal government of Sanchez de Lozada, and became the main electoral opponent of Evo Morales does not have a structured party base and was more a vehicle for opposition at the ballot box then a key organizer of the protests. The rebellion which Bolivia is experiencing is largely a spontaneous act led particularly by young people against the abuse of power.

It is important to be clear that there are indigenous peoples and workers on both the government and opposition side. The government clearly has more support in rural areas, but the opposition also includes coca producers from the Yungas, peasant leaders, mining workers, health and education workers, and above all young students, both middle and working class. Contrary to what happened in previous conflicts, it was the government that exacerbated the racism, saying that the protests were trying to take away the rural indigenous vote made in support of the government. During the conflict, there have been racist attacks from both sides. The burning of the wiphala, the flag of the Aymaran and Quechuan peoples, is absolutely deplorable. However, it is also notable that on social media, there are many groups who are part of the protests who challenge these attacks and defend the wiphala.

both sides

The supreme court equivalent accepted that she was next in line and only gave her an interim mandate. The same dumb supreme court who judged term limits were a human rights abuse, if I understand correctly. It seems new elections will be happen in late January. This is MAS’ moment to shine and prove they are stronger than just one dude, I don’t think boycotting will resolve anything.

Genuinely hope they hold elections and that they're fair! Have right-wingers in power ever held free and fair elections after toppling a left-wing government before? (honest question, maybe they have)

Sometimes it is both sides. Don’t know how else to say it. From what I understand large swaths of indigenous people have good reasons to be pissed off at Morales but also fear Camacho/Anez/Mesa with obvious good reasons. This is how some civil wars start, with both sides making unreasonable demands

Also the whole ‘both sides’ narrative is just what is is, a narrative, and I find narratives to be unhelpful. On top of it, ‘both sides’ is lifted from a specific critic of US media in a specific political moment and I really wonder how useful it is to force it unto the present Bolivian reality.

I am going to trust Pablo Solon over many american commentators on this issue.

I guess Brazil might have elected Bolsonaro fairly, for all I know, although he benefited from massive propaganda and an arguably railroaded opposition.

I genuinely doubt the next elections will be fair and free, but I sure hope so. And I am worried neither side is going to recognize the results now that all of that happened. I do take solace in that MAS has been able to build a strong coalition in the past and people seem to genuinely love Salvatierra.

Also Canada has not recognized Añez. I think this what europeans countries should do too. Put pressure on the notion that is really just an interim moment.

This business about how Morales is the true racist for saying that the opposition is anti-indigenous rings a little false when the current president is on record as saying that the indigenous population are satanists who should leave the cities and go back into the mountains.

He doesn’t say that, and even if he did I don’t see how two instances of race fear mongering can be mutually exclusive, even when one is much more intense than the other.

when the current president is on record as saying that the indigenous population are satanists who should leave the cities and go back into the mountains.

this was from a fake tweet I believe

Bolsanaro was absolutely fairly elected. Or, that is, the whole thing was a sham meant to benefit the conservative right, but it seems to have disgusted the populace enough to go with a third choice, the fascist. So those he kinda beat fair and square. Lula, not so much.

xp oh really? Thanks for the update, sorry to spread bullshit.

Hmm https://www.truthorfiction.com/jeanine-anez-bolivia-libre-de-ritos-satanicos-indigenas

Regardless of the veracity of the tweet, we can all agree that she is a racist shit head.

"Bolsanaro was fairly elected" except the candidate who could've beaten him was jailed 🙄

Not even Boris has come up with that ploy yet.

Thanks xyz, that's an accurate condensation of my post. Now go fuck yourself.

I heard there is a new Star Wars film at Xmas. Maybe that's more your level.

wait........what

I bring this up because Bolivian coup agent Daza is a member of Leto's spooky cult Echelon, and from the looks of it appears to have been (be?) a leader of the Echelon cult in Bolivia. (There's a LOT more if you search Echelon, but here's just a few screens for example) pic.twitter.com/YmTY34CWyI

— bak (@measure7x) November 14, 2019

Immanentizing the Bolivian echelon

Chilean singer Mon Laferte staged a protest at last night's Latin Grammys. Photo is NSFW, so search it up for yourself, but she wrote the words "En Chile Torturan Violan Y Matan" on her chest and dropped her top on the red carpet. (She later won Best Alternative Album.)

wait........what

I bring this up because Bolivian coup agent Daza is a member of Leto's spooky cult Echelon, and from the looks of it appears to have been (be?) a leader of the Echelon cult in Bolivia. (There's a LOT more if you search Echelon, but here's just a few screens for example) pic.twitter.com/YmTY34CWyI
— bak (@measure7x) November 14, 2019
― Simon H., Friday, November 15, 2019 6:01 AM (seven hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

30 seconds to MAS

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2019/11/16/at-least-five-killed-by-security-forces-in-massacre-in-cochabamba-bolivia/

An interesting Twitter thread dismantling a popular conspiracy theory about the Bolivian coup.

Been so busy with work I missed this whole theory that the Bolivian coup was over lithium. Let's walk through it. pic.twitter.com/hqWS1uT6j6

— Mike Caulfield (@holden) November 17, 2019

*Intellectuals at ilxor dot com screaming A FOURTH TERM?!*

The reality:

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/26/bolivia-rightwing-military-dictatorship?

Also Canada has not recognized Añez. I think this what europeans countries should do too. Put pressure on the notion that is really just an interim moment.

― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 14 November 2019 bookmarkflaglink

Lol

This is entirely predictable but still sickening. https://t.co/1lMUGYsuzM

— Louis Allday (@Louis_Allday) November 29, 2019

i bet bolivians have more on their mind than the status of their symbolic relationship with a country in the middle east

*Intellectuals at ilxor dot com screaming A FOURTH TERM?!*

this seems like an awfully roundabout way of asserting that ilxor dot com has no intellectuals

i bet bolivians have more on their mind than the status of their symbolic relationship with a country in the middle east

― Mordy, Friday, 29 November 2019 bookmarkflaglink

Symbolic huh?

As expected, the Bolivian post-coup junta plans to privatize the economy and reverse the gains of the last 13 years.

The junta has already expelled 700 Cuban doctors, removed RT & Telesur from airwaves, and requested Israeli training of its military. https://t.co/Xfq7lhY0eQ

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) December 16, 2019

Also Canada has not recognized Añez. I think this what europeans countries should do too. Put pressure on the notion that is really just an interim moment.

― Van Horn Street, Thursday, 14 November 2019 bookmarkflaglink

Just an interim govt, yeah

Just ignore the fascist and his propaganda, you're not going to be accurately informed. He has this fantasy going on where he is a right-thinking strongman disciplining the weak of mind. He is just an idiot.

Fred, can you stop this, you're only going to get banned again.

One week to Star Wars Fred. One week.

Tom, he literally just wrote 'we will have to get dirty online' on your little safe-space thread. If you don't want your allies to be called fascists, try and stop them from becoming authoritarians ranting about ruthless discipline. Nothing he writes above is about being informing, it's about punishing Mordy and Van Horn Street for speaking out of line. He is a sad loser thinking he is doing his part for the revolutionen by leaning into his shittiness. You'd do a lot more for your cause by speaking out against him than me.

Using a right-wing talking point to describe our little corner of the web is just beautiful. For a writer, you have a way with words!

(xp) He's not my 'ally'. Showing up on random threads to shout fascist at someone is nagl but so be it, your choice, there's only going to be one outcome.

Tom you don't know what you're talking about. This is not a 'random thread'. He literally cited Venezuela in yet another personal attack on me as late as yesterday! This guy is harassing me all over the board because I don't live up to his tankie ideals of 'anti-imperialism', and being completely open about doing it! And about wanting to do it to others!

Stay out of it if you don't want to know. You are literally defending online harassment, okay?

I'm not literally defending anything. You're your own worst enemy.

New Paddington Bear film this Xmas Fred?

No Tom, I'm pretty sure my worst enemy is not me but the guy who is harassing me. Who is open about using harassment strategically for discipline and punishment. And open about wanting to do it more. And who kept shitting on me after I blocked him. Pretty sure that guy is causing this. I'm not angling for sympathy, but what you're doing is textbook victimblaming. Just stay out of it. You have your little safespace, but don't let his abuse spread to the rest of the board.

Drop the 'little safespace' shite, Fred.

It's not safe from our Fred. Nothing is, sadly.

I've said my piece, I'll leave you two to it.

Well it's not just the two of us. Fred kicks off against multiple people on here, which is why he's been banned twice. Might take a 3rd.

I have, of course, not been banned twice. Dishonest abuser is being dishonest.

So once then? Aren't you ashamed of yourself?

as usual, Europeans making South America all about themselves. get another thread, fools, for your petty squabbles

I haven't lived in SA for a long time but do come from there. I revived with a report from Bolivia, but Fred is more important.

Lol, unbelievable.

The crazy thing is how out in the open it is. How honest he is about being ‘ruthless’ and ‘dirty online’. How obviously emotionally manipulative he is trying to be. How obviously he is trying to hurt. Me, and Van Horn Street, and Mordy, and imago and pom, etc. It’s just so obviously a harassment campaign. And all Tom can say is ‘please don’t call him a fascist’ and ‘don’t say safespace’.

It's a good job you're not angling for sympathy because I don't think you'll be getting much from anyone on here. As far as I'm concerned, you can call him a fascist all you like, all that will happen is you'll be banned from ILX.

Was this chump banned once or twice?

The thing that amazes me, Tom, is that you wrote yourself just last week Remoind me how many times Fred been banned now. No idea why Comrade Alphabet feels it necessary to keep winding him up though. If you were like 'nah, he is not harassing you, you're overreacting' that would be one thing, but you know it's his fault.

Using a right-wing talking point to describe our little corner of the web is just beautiful. For a writer, you have a way with words!

And on a thread where we are trying to talk about an authoritarian coup in Latin America where people are being directly murdered.

Lol loser https://t.co/DBsDDELKFN

— Will🧙‍♂️Menaker (@willmenaker) January 5, 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/07/venezuela-maduro-parliament-juan-guaido-leader

Just reading this thread and came across the following:

Saying US involvement sucks doesn't contradict the notion that Russian involvement sucks even more. Plus looking at the history of US involvement, Venezuela is at the moment, very far from the worst. Also very far from the worst Russia has offered outside and within its borders.

The US military has killed, at a very conservative estimate, at least 12 million people in various "interventions" around the world since the end of World War II. Probably more. That dwarfs anything Russia has done in the same period of time.

yeah but america is the good guys tho

I'm sorry, that number is just completely pulled out of thin air. But even then I don't think it 'dwarfs' 2 million dead civilians in Afghanistan in the eighties.

The refusal to acknowledge local agency in creating the violent uprisings that ended colonialism all over the world isn't actually progressive at all.

Lol just catching up on Guaido:

Even Guaido looked shocked at the applause, like wow you guys really are fucked up

— Dwayne (@dwayne937) February 5, 2020

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/26/bolivia-dismissed-its-october-elections-fraudulent-our-research-found-no-reason-suspect-fraud/

I bumped the Morales thread with that story but it can live here too of course.

Ah, my bad, I didn't know about that thread and thought this was the one for all Central/South American socialism politics stuff

The imperialists will say Morales should not have stood in the first place to defend this.

The obvious 'defence' is that the statistical evidence really don't matter, and that the OAS report investigated and found irregularities on the ground in Bolivia

But yes, of course Morales shouldn't have stood, it's insane to claim that as an 'imperialistic' view.

Btw the OAS report is out in English, if people want to read it: http://www.oas.org/fpdb/press/Audit-Report-EN-vFINAL.pdf

"The obvious 'defence' is that the statistical evidence really don't matter"

Says the Nate Silver fan. Really pathetic.

I just posted 95 pages of evidence as to why the statistics don't matter. 'Yeah but you like Nate Silver' is a weak comeback, even for you.

Thread revived with a report contesting the evidence and all you do is post it again? You really love coups don't you?

Read the report, mate

Had more time to compare and contrast, and it's worse than I expected. The MIT analysis finds that there is no spike after the count was stopped, that is after 84% was counted. But the OAS report claimed to find a spike later on, after 95% was counted. That is, their story is that the count was stopped and done in secret, and the cheating started once it seemed necessary. That story might be wrong, or made up by the OAS, but it is kinda inexplicable that the WaPo article doesn't even mention it.

Fundamentally you just don't get it. Doubts have been placed in the report to justify the coup, but then it's what has been done since then too, and the repression of indigenous peoples and their democratic rights. I mean they've installed a puppet in place, forming alliances with Bolsanaro, who did not run against Lula.

https://tribunemag.co.uk/2020/02/bolivias-coup-in-practice

Just read the report, mate

if you read the MIT report (linked in the WaPo article) it does actually mention that the OAS claimed to find a spike at 95% and that's what their statistical analysis attempts to address.

Fred - read less reports and get your head out of your arsehole, mate

Citation needed, ufo. I'm on my phone but the MIT report specifically says it analyzes based on the trendline of the first 84%

It's on page 1...

the OAS claims irregularities in the trend both from 84% with 95% onwards being particularly bad. the MIT report finds that the entirety of the final result is explainable by the trend before that.

anyway regardless of the substance of any irregularities, in the vote trend or otherwise, there's still absolutely no justification for the military coup that occurred which is the ultimate principle.

I agree on the second point. But the thread was bumped because of the MIT report, so that is of course what I'm writing about. And the first point is just wrong. The OAS report goes into detail on irregularities in specific districts happening right as the count hits 95%, this just simply can't be explained by voting trends happening elsewhere at earlier times. It's bad use of statistics.

The MAS is favored to win the new election, and the nightmare right-wing government will hopefully soon be over. A lot of things can be true at once, and believing that 1) perpetual reelection is bad and Morales should have never stood and 2) the OAS report is more credible than the MIT report, and the evidence of fraud is very convincing, does not mean I can't also believe that 3) right-wing coups are bad and 4) MAS is better than the opposition.

Yup, comfortably holding all thoughts from my big chair in Copenhagen.

Bumbling idiots: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/31/venezuela-us-transition-plan-maduro-guaido

It's an April's fool from the US

The article is from yesterday

Lol I knew you were going to say that

The Venezuelans don't trust the US? B-b-but, I heard you should always trust Elliot Abrams!

when you are so bad at everything you fail even at emulating failure

a “Star Wars summit of anti-Maduro goofballs"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/05/06/bay-pigs-style-fiasco-venezuela/

just reading about this. what a world

my brother sent me that story along with many Red Zone Cuba jokes

a very reasonable doubt everyone had was "c'mon is the leader of the Venezuelan opposition really signing a Microsoft Word template contract for like $250 million with a crossfit merc group to do a revolution and topple a government"
well, apparently, yeah seems so

— Aric Toler (@AricToler) May 7, 2020

AHAHAHA HOLY SHIT, Those Silvercorps morons stole their terms and conditions from @masterclass

They even failed to do the find and replace correctly!!! https://t.co/du7WqcSWH4 pic.twitter.com/fCe5NLlav1

— zedster (@z3dster) May 5, 2020

Full(ish) contract here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/read-the-attachments-to-the-general-services-agreement-between-the-venezuelan-opposition-and-silvercorp/e67f401f-8730-4f66-af53-6a9549b88f94/

One of the first articles this organisation uploaded on its website is by Claire Wordley, the very person who in the months in the run up to the coup in Bolivia was pushing the lie that Morales = Bolsonaro & that he was to blame for fires in the Amazon. https://t.co/GmlepVcuwQ

— Louis (@Louis_Allday) June 9, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/07/world/americas/bolivia-election-evo-morales.html

A close look at Bolivian election data suggests an initial analysis by the O.A.S. that raised questions of vote-rigging — and helped force out a president — was flawed.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

someone i went to hs with shared a fundraiser for her troop-husband's friend who was apparently one of the ppl who attempted the coup in venezuela lolllllllllllllllll

Lol.

I'm happy to admit I got it wrong in dismissing those calling this a 'coup' earlier.

This WAS a coup.

— Sunny Hundal (@sunny_hundal) June 17, 2020

7/ Then, it got real embarrassing. In April 2019, we tried to organize a kind of coup, but it became a debacle. Everyone who told us they’d rally to Guaido got cold feet and the plan failed publicly and spectacularly, making America look foolish and weak.

— Chris Murphy (@ChrisMurphyCT) August 4, 2020

this coup's going in my cringe compilation

On the Colombian protests and strikers:

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/police-colombia-acab/tnamp/?

Oh nothing, just Juan Guaidó and friends attempting to appropriate $40bn of Venezuelan state money from foreign banks in return for kick-backs down the road. https://t.co/mfqUv4uGbx

— Elvis Buñuelo (@Mr_Considerate) January 3, 2021

Ecuador's govt are trying to ban leftist @ecuarauz from standing in the 2nd round, even though he WON the 1st round. In Bolivia too, the coup tried to ban the largest party from standing. Its a deseperate measure taken by US-backed tyrants who've lost the consent of the governed.

— Ollie Vargas (@OVargas52) February 13, 2021

The latest round of protests against Colombia's right-wing government have seen a brutal crackdown, leading to at least 43 deaths – but the mass movement for social change is only growing stronger. https://t.co/0IWKqGMpoo

— Tribune (@tribunemagazine) May 23, 2021

Colombia, Celag poll:

Presidential election

Petro (PH, left): 38%
Fajardo (CC, centre): 18%
J.M. Galán (PLC, centre-left): 9%
De la Calle (PLC, centre-left): 8%
...

Fieldwork: 13 May-8 June '21
Sample size: 1,945#Colombia pic.twitter.com/Vxl87gvz6W

— America Elects (@AmericaElige) June 11, 2021

Bolivia’s recent interim government led by Jeanine Áñez persecuted opponents with “systematic torture” and “summary executions” by security forces following ex Pres. Evo Morales’s resignation in 2019, according to a new report by OAS human rights experts. https://t.co/Gatf5cPbGO pic.twitter.com/kfsR6gA8ji

— Kenneth Roth (@KenRoth) August 20, 2021

quiet thread these days

it seems this Roth fellow called the fascist coup a “transitional moment” at the time, so much for watching human rights.

I see the OAS is suddenly trustworthy.

do you care about this

fucking lol

By the way, I don’t see a problem with what happened in Bolivia

IIRC

“Compared to that other person on a messageboard whose views I disagree with, I am on the right side of history and he is not”

It is going to take a lot of imagination for an ideologue of Milo’s or Left’s kind to understand this but one can believe that Morales ‘president forever’ approach to politics is extremely bad all the while not supporting Añez human rights abuses at all. Or are we a little too attached to the schtick of making wild assumptions about someone we disagree with in order to show the world how virtuous we are? In any case I hope this sort of behavior is exclusive to the internet, because geez, must be tough to make friends irl with that sort of intransigeance.

lol, you didn't "see a problem" with the fascist coup last month

I am not going to spend hours trying to explain the vast complexity of politics in a country of 12 millions citizens and how not everyone will subscribe to your us against them/black and white narratives. Mainly because I know your raison d’être is to chastise anyone contradicting or stepping out of your one viewpoint and to get as many ‘gotchas’ as you can to pat yourself on the back and ultimately it’s just very very sad to witness.

I’ve never expressed support for any politician but I’m clearly a massive evo for life stan because I implied the coup is bad or something, wild assumptions indeed. to the charge of ideology check out this mirror

and to get as many ‘gotchas’ as you can to pat yourself on the back and ultimately it’s just very very sad to witness.

― Van Horn Street, Saturday, 28 August 2021 bookmarkflaglink

As if you don't do this.

VHS, from what I could tell, your nuanced view of the situation was that it was all basically fine because it worked out in the end with a transfer of power to a legitimately elected leader who wasn't Morales. You treated the year of Anez's rule like a speed bump that was necessary because Morales had to step down, even if he won the election and the reports of fraud were false and dozens of protestors were killed by Anez's forces. Maybe this is the mature, realpolitik way of looking at things, but it's also completely devoid of any context of the history of leftist leaders in South America and the right-wing response to them.

VHS do you work for Canada’s version of the Brookings Institute or what

Ideally the Ecuadorians should be allowed to sort this out internally without interference, but reflexive US interventionism is so deeply entrenched in our foreign policy that such an ideal will not be achievable any time soon. We will always throw our weight behind some faction in every contest for power in Latin America and even our rare, well-intentioned efforts seldom produce happy results and they have already caused so much disruption of the internal politics in Ecuador and other Latin nations that merely ceasing to interfere is insufficient to remedy the problems caused by our past intervention.

I don't particularly care whether the observation above is 'mature' or a sound reflection of realpolitik, or wide open to criticism that I am not doing enough to assist the Ecuadorian people in their struggle, mainly because no position I have ever adopted toward Latin American foreign policy has ever made any substantive difference in that policy. All I know is that the Monroe Doctrine has wrought much more evil than good in the world.

"merely ceasing to interfere is insufficient to remedy the problems caused by our past intervention."

Just don't interfere ffs.

I promise not to.

As a 'mature' citizen that's what you should do.