who do you think will win the u.s. 2008 election?

I'm more sure who's winning this poll among ILX'ors than I am about who will win the General Election.

what are you sure about?

...and why?

That Obama will win this poll. Sorry, my post wasn't very clear.

Maybe I'm mis-judging from the general sentiment on the political threads, but this seems to be a heavily pro-Obama crowd, and most seem to be convinced that he'll win the General Election (I hope he does, too, FWIW). It's not surprising, since I'd guess the typical ILX'or is much younger (a demographic that I'd think would tend to favor Obama) than the typical McCain voter.

He's sure that Obama's winning this poll, because really what kind of cynic would want to think it was McCain, but he's less sure that McCain won't still win it anyway IRL.

Correct!

(Except I'm the kind of cynic who thinks McCain will win the GE).

But I think he's wrong and Obama's going to wipe the floor with McCain. McCain has nothing going for him in real terms.

What went down on Tuesday night made me more optimistic about this election than I had been before.

McCain's Speech
McCain's Speech
McCain's Speech
McCain's Speech
McCain's Speech
Obama's Speech
Obama's Speech
Obama's Speech
Obama's Speech
Obama's Speech

Every potential voter in the swing states should be forced to watch those videos and write a doublespaced 2 page summary in order to qualify for a packet of $10 Target gift certificates.

Alex, I very much hope you're right. Z.S., those speeches give me hope, too.

He's old. He's uncharismatic. He has the wrong party affiliation (for this election anyway.) His positions are wretchedly out-of-step with most voters. He's flip-flopping all over the place to appease his base who don't really like him very much anyway.

Even if McCain wasn't a total speech stooge, he still has to deal with the small problem of being a staunch supporter of a war that most Americans don't agree with, and voting with Bush 95% of the time when Bush is, even by Bush standards, in a prolonged nadir of support.

i think theres a good chance that Mccain will win,though i favour Obama.
if Bush won the second term, even after the horrible first one, anything can happen

Could spin lots of stuff differently: He's stable. He's tested. He's a strong leader, but a break in tone and hubris from the Bush Admin. He was a POW held and tortured for 5 years by a determined enemy. He's a maverick, who had bucked his party on key issues. He's white.

None of that resonates with me (and I don't believe most of it). But bear in mind that, for all the stuff you mention, he still has a solid following and a large percentage of support among likely voters.

if Bush won the second term, even after the horrible first one, anything can happen

I think you're forgetting that pretty much nobody was enthusiastic about John Kerry being the Democratic nominee. Plenty of people are enthusiastic about Barack Obama being the Democratic nominee.

Daniel, for such a name political figure his support is actually pretty pathetic right now.

for the plenty of ehtusisters there are plenty who don't, and affraid of him for various reasons
xpost

Esp. since no one has been focusing on him since like what early February?

You're right about that. Today's Rasmussen has lots of stuff to give both sides hope, but consider: 41% say Obama's too inexperienced (vs. 30% who say McCain's too old); in a head-to-head matchup, even after McCain's sub-par speech and after Obama's dramatic, nomination-victory speech, Obama only leads by 5% (45/40 or 48/43 when counting "leaners"). Just a week ago, McCain had the edge over Obama, 46/43.

Today's Rasmussen.

And Curtis is right, upthread. Another reason I'm more hopeful with Obama as the nominee.

(btw, i like the 15 minutes of silent shock of no answers after you start a "new question" or a poll, and when youre back after some time theres 190 new answers)

Yeah the problem is Daniel that most people didn't watch either of those speeches. Over the next six months A LOT of people are going to hear both these guys speak a lot more and McCain get hit a lot harder. Polls pre-6/3 are meaningless. That McCain wasn't killing Obama at the start is a bad bad sign for him.

I hear you.

Now it's possible that McCain will be able to define Obama in very negative terms over the next six months, but he's going to have to do it with a lot less money and overcoming a substantial number of extremely high negatives of his own. It's possible, I mean anything is possible, but I think everything is trending heavily against him at this point.

I fully expect McCain to win this poll due to lolvote box stuffing.

I expect O will win the GE.

do old people decide this election? I think there will be a greater youth vote turnout in 2008.

lolvote cyniclol box stuffing.

if Bush won the second term, even after the horrible first one, anything can happen

In 2004 a much greater amount of voters still supported the war. I mean, yes to anyone paying much attention things were already going awful, but plenty of people were still feeling the patriotism. I wish someone would have captured a photo of a person in 2005 quietly removing the dual U.S. flag on the rear windows of their car. I guess most people do that kind of thing in a garage, though.

And, Bush in 2004 really capitalized on fearmongering, and though some people still buy it now, after the last 5 zillion Bush Admin. scandals, at least some people are more skeptical.

And, Kerry inspired no one. People didn't vote for him, they voted against Bush. Obama is a swing state turner.

That's a good question about the youth vote, Curtis. Some people said the same thing about the 2004 election (although, I agree with you, few were excited about Kerry, but many were passionately against Bush). But it wasn't enough. Maybe this time is different.

youve convinced me
xpost

In fact, I remember on election night, Joe Scarborough (MSNBC) saying over a shot of people voting: "You know, I keep hearing about the youth vote impacting tonight's results, but these (and other video from around the country) look like the same old voters we've always seen on election day." So we'll just have to wait and see this time.

This is good for Obama.

I've heard people suggest Richardson as a running mate (whatever his various negs) would put Texas in the blue column, which I find completely unbelievable.

NO to Richardson. And this is the kind of stuff that surprises and concerns me. Yes, it's too early to be concerned.

Also

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Holy Toledo! Didn't see that. Why is that on Rasmussen's front page?

I think turnout is greater when people are voting for something, especially among demographics that are normally v. politically apathetic, e.g. young'uns. Also Obama seems like a dude that has his shit together 100% and Kerry seemed like a dude who maybe sometimes had his shit together but not completely. Brute charisma is necessary to inspire people who don't care about anything.

so pretty much based entirely on bullshit stereotypes & abstractions I think Obama's going to win

I think Obama should position a good indie or pop act at every major polling center. LIKE THE DECEMBERISTS. That will bring out the young'uns vote.

the press hated kerry and they hated gore even more - but they luv obama

Obama will win. Unless something bad happens I can't see McCain winning, just looking at the electoral map. All of you pessimists who think McCain is going to win... how? And I don't mean "McCain had national security credentials and a black man can't really win and blah blah blah," I mean how will he win electorally? Make ur map:

http://www.270towin.com/

McCain winning Florida, Virginia, Ohio, New Mexico and Nevada is a start. That gets him to 253. I'll have to give it some thought beyond that. If he gets Iowa and MO, he takes it.

After watching the inept and incompetant G.W. Bush slip into the White House in 200 and again in 2004, it is hard not to feel queasy about this one. However, I think Obama will be able to eke it out over McCain, mainly because the issues cut Obama's way so heavily that he should be able to scrape together a winning coalition, over against the purely emotion-based campaign McCain will need to run if he is to have a prayer of winning. Obama has also shown he can appeal to emotions with the best of them.

http://www.270towin.com/

Grr, every combination I try ends up coming down to Ohio.

I like that it helpfully tells you that Ohio picked the winning President in each of the last 10 elections, too.

I've heard people suggest Richardson as a running mate (whatever his various negs) would put Texas in the blue column, which I find completely unbelievable.

Oh man, are Texans down with him? I thought he was pretty much lurved only here in NM, and a good portion is in a 'wudda wuvvable guy'/state pride way, not nec. mad boosting of his political chops. Or are they just saying that bcz he is Hispanic?

Ohio was the first state admitted under the Northwest Ordinance, entering the Union in March 1803. It participated in its first presidential election in 1804. Ohio is a swing state, and has been a battleground in recent elections due to the closeness of the vote and its wealth of electoral votes (currently 20). This was particularly true in 2004, when Ohio put George W. Bush over the top in a close 2 percent victory over John Kerry. In recent elections, the Buckeye State has proved itself to be a remarkably good predictor of the election winner. Since 1944, Ohioans have sided with the losing candidate only once – opting for Nixon over Kennedy in 1960. Ohio has been losing population (relative to the country as a whole) and it may lose one or two electoral votes in 2012 as a result of the upcoming 2010 census.

i want a give of blinking mccain

I just gave each swing state to whichever party they've voted with in the majority of elections since 56 and Obama won out by 2 electoral votes.

If Obama can put Ohio and Virginia into the blue column, he'll win.

What would it take for another blowout a la 1984 and 1972?

A revelation that Obama is, in fact, Jesus Christ.

I recently heard a GOP commentator (Jim Pinkerton) predict a 40-state win for McCain, which would be a complete blowout. He's basing that on the anticipated 527-type campaign about Obama's associations and patriotism (and race, tho I don't think Pinkerton means this). I just don't see it.

If someone's going to win in a landslide, I'd guess it would be Obama. If Obama takes from the GOP column Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia, he'll win in a landslide, I think. That's pretty amazing since he'll do so while losing Florida, which I normally consider a pretty critical state to winning the overall General Election.

T/S:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/04152008/photos/cindy_mccain.jpg vs. http://i210.photobucket.com/albums/bb248/nathanmorton_photos/MichelleObama4.jpg

man i would beat that shit up-- she talks real nasty, but not like a flipper. TS, smash-off edition: cindy vs michelle. i would get them dyking while my russian wing was making a snuff video of david axlerod & joe liberman

you're getting scarily good at this

i think theres a good chance that Mccain will win,though i favour Obama.

^ This.

if Bush won the second term, even after the horrible first one, anything can happen

^ This x 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000. NEVAR FOGRET!!!!!!!!

I think you're forgetting that pretty much nobody was enthusiastic about John Kerry being the Democratic nominee.

And yet the vote was split very nearly in half. That could happen again, except with the Republican candidate that pretty much nobody is enthusiastic about winning by a nose. And there are a lot of suggestions that the projected electoral vote favors McCain, as well. I think that, if nothing else, will be the ultimate source of America's frustration and disappointment. Again.

Deric I'd venture that your analogy falls apart once you consider that the enthusiasm for Obama far outstrips anything Bush Jr. enjoyed in 2004.

"enthusiasm" is just one of a million vote-swaying factors

I know! Don't step on any butterflies in the past.

enthusiasm by how many people?
can that be even counted?
maybe the majority is silent .the media focus on the enthusiasm about obama doesnt neseccery means it reflects the majority's mind.

(just for the sake of argument)

is english your first language?

no

mccain't gonna happen

mccain't gonna happen

Every time I hear this, it's like hearing "Let's split up!" or "What's the worst that could happen?" or "C'mon, baby. We don't need a condom!" or "Insurance?!? Whatever!". Like you're practically tempting fate to punch you in the throat.

Obama to 270 without Ohio or Florida: give him CA, NV, OR, WA, NB, IA, MN, WI, IL, ME, VT, MA, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, NC, & HI. IA/MN/WI/NV/OR are on in the "2004 very close" category

what the fuck "NB" - I mean Nebraska, which isn't even considered a swing state I guess. I have spent too much time in Omaha and Lincoln and not enough elsewhere, I don't know how unmoveable NE's GOP stance is considered.

If GA can be picked up, and I think they're going to work their asses off there with voter registration/turnout, that will be a big deal.

"I'm going all the way, baby!"

http://brushfires2008.com/bob_barr_2008.jpg

what are O's chances in LA? damn this 270 to win site is a kickass video game

If Obama gets all of the 2004 blue states plus Virginia, would that seal the deal for an Obama win?

Just clicked the site.

Kerry blue states + VA + NM = Obama win.

I guess the question is: which Kerry blue state is more up for grabs this time? Wisconsin?

I am disappointed that my repeated iteration that mccain is totally a fall-guy candidate set up to fail is still not catching on with people even though I have repeated it three times

http://www.spring.org.uk/2007/07/loudest-voice-majority-opinion.php

If McCain is meant to be a fall guy, it will become more evident after the convention in Sept. At this time it is better to presume the Repubs will fight tooth and nail to retain the presidency. Too many skeletons in the White House for them to be comfortable letting their opponents in.

I'm still waiting for him to pick another old white dude for veep, or some unknown and insubstantial twit de la quayle, just to put the last nail in the coffin.

Tom there is no way I have not blown that off as a possibility. Howevs a certain amount of olds, racists and reactive-independent types may not have got this obvious obvious memo. But it's kind of a dumb strategy if the person the other side gets in turns out to have access to more cans of whupass than your wife's has cans of Bud.

uh wife

yeah et its a nice conspiracy theory but its just that - is there any precedent in the history of the US of a party running a sure loser out there for their own benefit? i mean on the surface it sounds like the plot to a cheap comedy

yeah et its a nice conspiracy theory but its just that - is there any precedent in the history of the US of a party running a sure loser out there for their own benefit? i mean on the surface it sounds like the plot to a cheap comedy

I don't know for sure, of course, but McCain's candidacy is a steep drop from the hyper-competency the GOP has exhibited since Clinton's second term. Maybe it is that they're reaping the whirlwind and all their counterintuitive allegiances are straining at the seams and he really is the best compromise they could come up with; as I say often in my job, I try to never attribute to cunning what can be just as easily attributed to dumb.

Heck, Tom, it sounds to me like you're just looking for a reason why you don't need to give $25 to the Obama campaign.

(hyper-competency as an election-winning machine, of course - running the country, probably the worst since coolidge et al, except now the world gives a shit how america behaves, so all the unbelievably stupid shit goes for triple)

Ladies and Gentlemen, Occam's Razor.

BORING

you don't need a conspiracy theory to realize that many elections look unwinnable or unattractive to one particular party, resulting in a field of lamers, i.e. dole '96 and i'd argue bush 2000

(i'd also argue that you see this more with republicans)

McCain isn't a fall guy. How would the GOP even arrange that? Some smoke-filled backroom meeting in 2007 where party elders agree that no exciting candidates will be allowed to run for President this year, all so the Democrats will win, be steamrolled by events set in motion during Bush's two-terms, with the expectation that a conservative "savior" will emerge in 2012 to re-establish Republican dominance? No way.

McCain won because the party was hopelessly split between its nat'l security, economic and social-issue wings, and the economic and social-issue candidates (Romney and Huckabee) weren't viable for one reason or another. Plus, McCain gave Bush a strong challenge in 2000, he has a strong resume, and he's a nationally known name, which gave him a platform to launch his campaign. He slipped thru to the nomination.

I'm still waiting for him to pick another old white dude for veep

Lieberman! This would be SOOOO good.

you don't need a conspiracy theory to realize that many elections look unwinnable or unattractive to one particular party, resulting in a field of lamers, i.e. dole '96 and i'd argue bush 2000

(i'd also argue that you see this more with republicans)

Circumstanes like these lead to a silent collusion b/w the parties (include Carter '80 and Mondale on your list).

'field of lamers' is kinda relative tho innit

and i dont know anyone who thought bush wasnt the probable candidate to take 2000 from the start

how does a party gain, ultimately, from singling out an unattractive candidate to run for an unattractive (PRESIDENTIAL) election? "hey guess what public, we're awful! but in four years, we'll sure look damn fine, hopefully!"?

you guys need to call into car concerns

You think Carter's 1980 re-election run was the result of silent collusion between the parties to allow Reagan to win? (xp)

And I know nothing about cars, tho I'd be happy to help RM (producer).

haha u should listen tho it might be too late

its been about 'fear', 'unzipping reality' and 'the new world global elite' for like 30 mins at least now

NO! Okay, I'll check it now.

Heck, Tom, it sounds to me like you're just looking for a reason why you don't need to give $25 to the Obama campaign.

wtf@this

wink-wink nudge-nudge (gerns) yuk-yuk

I think that, rather than ascribing some far-fetched conspiracy theory to McCain's candidacy, we can probably assume that many potential candidates with more to offer never even bothered to enter the race this year in order to avoid the thankless task of running with the "eight years of hardcore Republican brand devaluation" albatross around their necks. If you felt that you were a viable Republican candidate, would you want to run this year?

or like, since the republican party is essentially in shambles, name one better potential candidate than a guy who has a rep as a independent thinker, war hero, maverick, but is in fact a typical right wing tool when it comes down to it

^^^^ This. There are stories around the media about how the GOP is having tremendous trouble recruiting quality candidates at all levels this year.

(xp)

(The "^^^^ This" was to DWH's post.)

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

this summer is going to suck, isn't it

McCain will win cuz life sux.

;_;

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Electoral College votes circa 1792.

WSJ poll has McCain ahead 47-41

it seems that the unconverted haven't gotten the message yet

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/todays-polls-611.html

lol NBC Poll: Obama Leads McCain 47 - 41

the WSJ poll and the NBC poll are the same thing

u backwards darnl

hey everyone i just got a great idea for something we can compare people who are going to vote for obama to: cultists

People who are enthusiastic about things are obviously wrong.

enthusiasm

people are weird

that linked article doesn't sound THAT much wackier than some of the stuff that gabbneb some ILXors have been claiming about obama.

all i've claimed about obama is that he's a very good politician who knows how to bring people together. i think he's a pretty decent, self-aware dude, too, but i haven't made too much of that.

i dunno i definitely loved that part where gabbneb said obama is a Lightworker

hey the words-in-mouth schtick still isn't old, dude, good job

btw, i think that the winner of the u.s. 2008 election will be Barack Hussein Obama

pending veep selections

gabbneb for veep 08

i was being sarcastic

i am on your side on this one!!!

the idea that there is anything remotely spiritual about gabbneb makes me lol

i will show you the way and the light, deeznuts

deezways
deezlites
deeznuts

that linked article doesn't sound THAT much wackier than some of the stuff that gabbneb some ILXors have been claiming about obama.

The underlying idea doesn't sound wacky at all. "Bush was a magnet for the low vibrational energies of fear and war and oppression and aggression" -- despite the fact that neither Bush nor his cohorts vibrate at any different frequency than you or I, this is still otm. Of course most average non-psychopatic humans would make a better president than Bush, and there's a national nausea that's acknowledged by almost everyone by now, but I also see how Obama has an extra kick that very few people have. For one thing, while I see him doing a couple predictable about-faces to get votes, I don't hear him *lying*. It's remarkable.

I don't believe inspirational rhetoric is worthless, and I don't think the people who are arguing that is worthless really believe that, either. It's not just talk, it's inspirational -- hence the phrase. And if he's nothing more substantial than the inspiration ice cream truck, bring some of that shit down my street, ice cream is gooood. What are you afraid of, he's going to fuck up the country? lol

low vibrational energies suck

time to get new batteries

or new wasps

I'll fix that right up for ya there... lemme see this thing.

low vibrational energies suck

rong.

And if he's nothing more substantial than the inspiration ice cream truck, bring some of that shit down my street, ice cream is gooood.

Do you actually have ice cream trucks on your street?

i totally do. the other day its jingle was 'white christmas' tho

Yeah, one of them in my neighborhood plays Xmas songs exclusively!

Obama would never torture me so.

'white christmas' in summertime = surefire sign they are in fact peddling crack, get on it mookie

fuck. okay what should the price be? i'm such a n00b

Da Mayor: Doctor...
Mookie: C'mon, what. What?
Da Mayor: Always do the right thing.
Mookie: That's it?
Da Mayor: That's it.
Mookie: I got it, I'm gone.

I thought that was the best line in the movie. "That's IT?"

actually, my block has a mayor. but he's this short italian vietnam vet with white hair.

and the other day he referred to obama as a "spook who reads the koran"

fucking hell

dude that's not the mayor, that's Otis, the town drunk. You're new to Mayberry, aintcha?

Do you actually have ice cream trucks on your street?

Indeed I do, and IIRC it plays "Pop Goes The Weasel." (Sadly, not the 3rd Bass version.) And kids go nuts asking their moms for change and running like maniacs to get to it. And you know why? Because ice cream is good.

who doesnt have ice cream trucks on their street?

thats weird

course most average non-psychopatic humans would make a better president than Bush,

There's as strong possibility that most average non-psychopathic humans will act just like Bush, elected to the same position.

I don't believe that. Bush is a very special case of a lot of things. When they made Bush, they broke the mold. And then spat on the floor.

Enough Americans agreed with every move Bush made before things went bad. I don't know why we think they'd behave differently were they themselves in office.

there are a lot of americans like bush

but who would you rather have a beer with?

although the average non-psychopathic human might not be predisposed to invade iraq cause it tried to hurt his or her daddy

although the average non-psychopathic human might not be predisposed to invade iraq cause it tried to hurt his or her daddy

Hm. Think about it for a few seconds while I get ice cream.

There are a lot of individual qualities that a lot of people share with Bush (we both like beer, yes, and we also both have ten toes), but the combo is somethin' else. Just for starters, to be like Bush you'd have to have a dad like George H.W., and that's rare, possibly singular.

xxposts

I can't distinguish between Poppy and Barb. Which one wears the blue dress?

monica

I mean, you guys have all got George W. all figured out? I don't. People will be writing books trying to pin down wtf that guy was up as long as I am alive, and I will read many of them, because I'm kinda curious, too.

wtf that guy was up TO

it's tough to pin down the irrational

already been done

http://brothersjudd.com/reviews/images/whatittakes.gif

and dim

he is a Lightworker. it is as simple as that. he is a Lightworker. it as simple as that. xps

Maybe this'll come out disingenuous, but he doesn't seem like too complex a character of history. I mean, were any of his actions totally inexplicable? They all seem attributable to ignorance, apathy and bad advice.

well ok, people will write books on how much he knew and how much he cared about what he knew.

They all seem attributable to ignorance, apathy and bad advice.

See, another thing I have in common with Bush!

maybe the internet made him stoopid

oh, we're talking about W, not Poppy. his actions are attributable to ideology. he's a true believer.

But even that's completely weird. I don't know a lot of born-again Christians, but the couple I am passingly familiar with did not continue to do whatever the hell they wanted except drink booze after they saw the light. If he's a true believer, it's in something I've not read the literature on.

it's called Republicanism

Yeah, well, maybe so.

The center cannot hold.

The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

I mean, this is arm-chair psychology, but he reminds me of people I know who - regardless of intelligence level - aren't particular self-reflective, insightful, or self-conscious. I suspect doing whatever the hell he wants except drink booze after he saw the light doesn't bother him much. He probably doesn't think about it, and he can afford to insulate himself from those that would demand he confront it. That's why I don't necessarily think he's unintelligent. Just uncurious, uninterested and unself-aware.

No agreed -- he has to be pretty damn un-self-aware. Who else would have any need to come up with some cockamamie crap about giving up golf for the war dead to win sympathy for himself? That sentence only barely makes sense.

that's 'compassion'

^ self-challop-spotting. That's one, I think.

xpost

god, he is appalling. an actually thoughtful, more straightforwardly evil guy would make more sense (hi bill kristol)