How Many Electoral Votes Will Obama Win?

367

Between 286 and 293.

666

367

― Carrie Bradshaw Layfield (The stickman from the hilarious 'xkcd' comics), Tuesday, October 28, 2008 2:29 PM (15 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

We must be looking at the same map because I came up with the exact same number. Pollster.com perhaps?

353

There's a handy vote calculator here. You can click on a state to flip it to Obama or McCain:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

I'm going to go out on a limb and say 338.

distribution of votes between states always seems like bs to me.

i like 313.

349

RealClearPolitics.com <<< FiveThirtyEight.com

That is, if y'r a bettin' man.

360

That map is fun. Oh, the wild out-there shit McCain would have to do to win.

We must be looking at the same map because I came up with the exact same number. Pollster.com perhaps?

― Moodles, Tuesday, 28 October 2008 19:45 (59 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

www.politicalbetting.com

distribution of votes between states always seems like bs to me.

It's equal to the members of Congress you have.

311

364

voted 340-349

we need to put some money on this

420 maaaaaaaaan

inhaling is kind of the point

382. (Though I voted 370-379.) (I don't usually think I'm right.)

I'm going to go out on a limb and say 338.

― o. nate, Tuesday, October 28, 2008 3:13 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

'out on a limb'?

pleasant plains is way conservative here

538 estimates 375 as most likely outcome and if anything the ground game will make that a more conservative estimate

I'm thinking that there are going to be states on Election Night where we go "oh shit!", like Virginia and North Carolina still going to McCain.

It'll turn out okay in the end, but I don't see a blow-out.

Maybe it's because I drive past a sea of McCain/Palin signs every day to work, but I also remember 2004 too well.

I know, it's not 2004. But there are still so many people who aren't going to vote for a smooth-talkin' half-black terrorist with no experience.

If Virginia goes McCain at this point, it would be a huge shock to me. His poll #s there are awful.

414 seems to me to be the absolute cap for Obama. That's the 375 he's got in the no leaners RCP map + GA, ND, MT, WV, SD and AZ. 390-396 seems imminently doable to me, but I wager something around 370-379 is the most likely.

^^^this yeah

I know, it's not 2004.

Bush was polling ahead most of the week before election day, according to electoral-vote.com

(i.e. the site that has had Obama above 350 or so for the last three weeks, et al)

268

dont you mean 368

ain't guessin

ain't jinxin it

Kingfish guesses, ruins entire election http://i.cdn.turner.com/cnn/.element/img/2.0/global/icons/video_icon.gif

i only guessed because i wanted to see if i could ruin the election

311

http://www.stickernow.com/catalog/images/311band.jpg

'out on a limb'?

I know mine was a relatively conservative prediction - I just meant that picking any particular number is going out on a limb.

370–379.

voted 280-289

I think the race will be tighter than expected, which will majorly freak out a lot of Dems, but O will edge above the Kerry states from 2004 a bit more.

I hope I'm grossly underestimating O's win margin though. I'd love to see a landslide.

my first guess was 360 but since someone called that exact number I'll go with 362

prediction: nevada is o's

new screen name

370s

voted 330-339, but i'd be happy if it's more

I voted 380-9. How many does he have to win?

he has to win all of them, plus complete the obstacle course under three minutes and ten seconds

That's gonna be tough, I reckon he has a better chance on the obstacle course than McCain.

He has to stay on the big balls.

my read - i'm fairly confident dude has CO, IA, NM, PA, likely NV and VA and probably OH. the tossups imo are FL, MO and NC, though turnout - already being reflected in recent polling? - may make them less tossup-y. the only other states i think Obama has a reasonable chance of winning are IN, leaning slightly McCain, but going down to the wire, and just maybe ND (and NE-2?), where there isn't a lot of polling to look at. i think McCain's probably going to take MT, SD and AZ by a couple of points, but it's possible that an early network call for Obama might push MT into Obama's column - time zones might not produce the same effect in the latter two? I think turnout in GA will be enough only to bring it within a few points, not for a win.

voted 340-349, but i'm thinking it's gonna be lower. i'm not totally seeing FL + NC going obama, and probably not MO

gabbneb OTM with the true toss-ups being FL, MO, NC.

i'd love to see him get my home state of OH, and he probably will, but there's something that's preventing me from being confident about OH

I'd put IN in the toss-up category.

jel: he has to get 270

god, I love this one:

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/images/elections/maps/1936.jpg

^i think my favorite tidbit from the 538 posts on individual states was that vermont never voted for a democrat (other than lbj) until '92

In reverse!

http://uspoliticsguide.com/images/Presidents-history/1984-electoral-map.gif

oh god don't remind me

I think turnout in GA will be enough only to bring it within a few points, not for a win.

then again - http://thepage.time.com/long-voting-lines-in-atlanta/

My calls for Mr. O: VA PA NV CO. States currently blue at Pollster.com, total of 311.

Mr. McC.: MT ND OH NC GA FL AZ. Current Pollster.com reds and tossups, plus OH and minus MO. My thinking is that natural tightening flips the very close red states back to McCain.

No Fucking Clue: MO.

OH and FL will go Obama.

Novak says FL is hardest to call, and I don't necessarily disagree. OH is the state in the O column I'm least comfortable calling for him, but I don't think that 'natural tightening' is going to give McCain a state in which he hasn't polled above 48% (other than in the total-bullshit Zogby internet poll) since mid-September, a period in which Obama has polled above that level 26 times. you know?

i feel pretty comfortable with my prediction for ohio despite my insider knowledge that the state is full of republican assholes

352 - multiple of 88 for skinhead lulz

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

The bestest thing about this cycle is that if Obama holds PA, he can almost certainly do without OH and FL.

The most delicious thing ever in my view would be to have Florida all uncertain and mixed up and un-callable and shrieking "look at me! look at me!" on Wednesday morning--but to have it be irrelevant because Obama is already over 270.

"Yeah thanks, guys; take your time. Heck, take as long as you like because apparently we can decide things without y'all."

Obama wins the obvious, and VA CO NM NV, and OH FL, and NC, and ND, and either MO or IN but probably not both (I'm thinking IN), and GA. 382. AZ will be M+3. I'm thinking not MT, and even less likely WV. Prop 8 fails, GA senate race goes to a revote.

Giving me what I like to think of as a comfortable margin of disappointment.

Puffin OTM. Fuck OH and MO and all such bellwethers, except I really want this to be a landslide.

338

I'm going to go ahead and post my swing state predictions so I can laugh at them after the election:

From West to East:

NV: O
MT: M
ND: M
MO: M (It hurts to say that, coming from MO and seeing the polls shift Obama's way recently)
IN: M
OH: O
FL: O
NC: M

I'm trying to be conservative here, but I'm really crossing my fingers for MO and NC to go Obama's way.

Of course, the fate of Missouri lies in one man's hands: JORDAN S

538 wd be nice

I had a dream about Nate Silver talking about how much he loved Hairspray because of ilx.

time to take a break from the internet

haha ZS did you vote absentee here?

time to take a break from the internet

I know, srsly.

I'm registered for New York now, so I can't. I wish I could, so I could at least offset one of my parents' McCain votes.

lol i am controlling yr dreams

i already voted 330s, but am upping my predict to 350s as statement of faith in my friend who's working NC for O.

Yes, I have a friend who is working MO and it's making me think, well, maybe!

I know someone else who was working NC but got moved to SC, which means either Obama has more volunteers than he knows what to do with, or McCain is seriously fucked (not that Obama will win SC, mind).

366

swings

NV: O
MT: M
ND: O
MO: M
IN: M
OH: O
FL: M
NC: O

is CO not a swing state anymore?

except for like a day after the rnc o has led pretty well since june.

is CO not a swing state anymore?
CO's never really been a swing state. They went for Clinton in '92, but voted for Republicans in every other race since 1968. Perhaps more significant is that they're about to send two Democrats to the Senate. Colorado's def. turning blue.

IN: M

nope^^^

Obama will win GA

353

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

13 cynics up in here

364, but late to the poll!

Sorry I messed up the end date. It was supposed to end today.

I don't know how many, but Dems will be smug and celebratory about it.

aw Nicole

and morbs will be cranky and butthurt

once again the President of the most powerful nation on earth will not a radical leftist!! it boggles the mind

not BE a

NV O
MT M
ND M
MO O
IN M
OH O
FL O
NC O

Tracer, I'm guessing he won't be a liberal, either, but Dems will pretend he is, just like with Dear Bill.

"liberal" doesn't mean anything

it means whatever dr morbius thinks democrats aren't

that's very Seussian

also very true

We (MO) will go blue.

You guys do know that he doesn't get to become king unless it's 450+?

he's not running for king, he's running for president

at least there will be a mandate for HOPE.

I get the sneaking suspicion no one will enjoy tomorrow's election returns more than Morbs, in his own way.

yes, I will enjoy seeing McCain lose. You know what Alvy Singer said about the horrible and the miserable? Bingo.

I don't know, I'm expecting to consume a lot of BOOZ

obv troll is obv ppl

"Bingo."

I am still praying for a Bloomps win.

I don't believe in god so this makes my gesture even more futile.

morbs tomorrow i will toast to your unrivaled principle and then get drunk

on wednesday i will be hung over

on thursday and thereafter it will be l-r: obama, BIG HOOS
http://nynerd.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/14-cat-meets-eagle.JPG

― HOOS HOOS HOOS on the autosteen (BIG HOOS aka the steendriver), Monday, November 3, 2008 7:14 PM (29 minutes ago) Bookmark

I'm not planning to be at work on Wednesday.

I am taking off Wed too; enjoy yr day of peace

I think I'm not going to watch the TV at all on Tuesday. I have spent enough bad Tuesdays watching TV. See also: Sept. 11, 2001. Some things, I do not need to watch as they transpire. Things good or bad.

WEDENSDAY, DAY OF PEACE

I will be eating gingerbread pancakes and drinking ALL DAY

WEDNESDAY, DAY OF PEACE

[quote]IN M[/quote]

disagreeance. polls this morning gave them a 49-49 tie, tie breaks obama imo

suddenly the 280-300 range is sounding plausible...

based on...

my psychic bones. Which have been wrong before.

OK, so what was the answer?

looks like 364

or 349

lol ILX rong

sorry about your bones morbs

i would've been right on at 360 if he would lose NC and GA and win MO but i guess that won't happen? i'm confused. everyone is saying different things.

McCain won ga and mo

CNN still not calling MO and putting the gap at less than 6000 votes.

IIRC, if the numbers CNN had last hold up in terms of who is ahead in which state race, Obama is going to end up with 364.

sorry, I believed the panicky Obama campaign email Ned posted yesterday. Which outside of politics, is called "a big lie." When will I lose my naivete?

364, but late to the poll!

― collardio gelatinous, Monday, November 3, 2008 3:15 AM (2 days ago) Bookmark

you win free beta keys for the internet (if North Carolina comes in for Obama)
man I was close with 362.

My number was either 364 or 367, I can't remember now.

g00blar also called 364, iirc

i'm totally enjoying being obnoxious about this at the office today.

of course counting's not done yet

I hit the nail on the head at my mmorpg.com poll: http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/thread/210563/page/1

Obama Wins Omaha, NE Electoral Vote; Final Tally Looks to be 365-173

nice work, 10 of you

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck i was off by 1

haha nebraska did you in? or one the other way

off by 1 errors are the bane of computer programmers, too, HOOS

pesky omahans. messin' with my punditry resume.