hurricane coming...

winds up to 135 miles an hour

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2010/9/1/1283344951794/This-September-1-2010-NOA-006.jpg

http://www.foxnews.com/static/managed/img/Scitech/hurrearl_604x341.jpg

these are fun! (sometimes)

fun?!?

sometimes

maybe just cuz i was a kid and NO SCHOOL

http://media.nj.com/ledgerupdates_impact/photo/eye-pathjpg-556a2e3705606a48_large.jpg

ugh, i guess.

i was on kendall/142nd during andrew. that was bad. i was in coral-gables during katrina and wilma. those were kind of bad, too, tbh.

well i was 4 during andrew and we had to move out of our house for a whole year but most hurricanes aren't andrew

during katrina my car got destroyed but oh well

most hurricanes are minor & fun ime

i feel for my marthas vineyard family. i hope aunt bette battens down the hatches.

LOL, my car was destroyed during katrina, too.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0710W5_sm2+gif/212340W_sm.gif

WATCH OUT, GREENLAND

I've never had the joy of being directly hit (around the Cocoa Beach area), but I love it when they hang around offshore so I can go outside in 60mph wind and try running against it.

Worst that ever came through where I lived in FL was Charlie, but we were on the West coast (not the panhandle), so it was significantly weakened by the time it got to us. We got a lot of downed trees and some flooding.

powerlines on our street are underground so we never lost power so i always got to have mega sleepovers when hurricanes came :-D

this is gonna fuck up my last vacation day of the summer :(

I got quadruple time pay for coming in to work one time when there was a hurricane churning offshore (this was 1999 or 2000 I think?). I lived one mile away from the office, so it wasn't that big a deal. SUCKERS.

Hurricanes are only fun when they hang out far enough offshore to close down the county yet your power doesn't go out (see Frances, Jeanne, Rita).

I may have been the only person in South Florida not to lose power during Wilma.

ugh i'm supposed to be moving this weekend, not gonna be cool if i have to make multiple trips in & out of the city in hurricaney weather

Max Mayfield, I love you.

http://www.foxnews.com/images/root_images/090210_goawayearl_20100902_063459.jpg

Sign says "Go Away Earl!"
Cause comfort rules
At the Co-om-fort Inn.

I've been through several hurricanes as a kid and while I thought they would be cool, like with shit flying through the air, they all ended up being annoying. The most annoying one being Flloyd in 1999, in which is just rained and rained and rained and my power was out for a week.

http://i244.photobucket.com/albums/gg33/JRangerkip/chan/Typhoon_LONGWANG.jpg

Hurricane Irene is predicted to arrive in the general NYC/northeast area some time late on Saturday, early on Sunday.

Oh good, I'll just be getting back from the Long Island highland games. With any luck.

maybe you'll find yourself in a remake of I Know Where I'm Going!

Ooh maybe that means the waves will be good at the beach on Sat afternoon.

We escaped another one!

I called to tell my parents, who just moved to Florida, about the earthquake and my Mom was yelling in the background - "There's a hurricane coming why hasn't she called us?!" Uh cause I'm more likely to get hit by the hurrican than you are at this point? :(

dont come to maine you bitch

Jeez, what on Earth did I do to you Mr. Green?

;p

I mean t the hurciciane - you are welcome in Maine anytime

I love Maine.

a pug gentleman lives in my hood so there's that for socializin

lol @ "pug gentleman"

shit bahamas are gonna get creamed by this :/

maybe you'll find yourself in a remake of I Know Where I'm Going! ― incredibly middlebrow (Dr Morbius)

<3 u for this, because you know how enormously happy that would make me.

threat for Northeast upgraded:

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/article/hurricane-irene-major-northeast-threats_2011-08-23

good tracking website

http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic

love how this storm stops immediately at the Canadian border!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hurricane-scenarios-run-from-bad-to-worse-2011-08-24?link=home_carousel

no hurricanes can get through customs

The author of that artcile needs to learn to distinguish between Spielberg films and Michael Bay films.

Looking up at the hurricane vs. running away from a CGI building collapsing in said hurricane.

Ned otm.

The ironically named Irene...

oh yeah.

I dont want a hurriance in Maine. I already have no roof

Just slow down and there won't be any hurriance.

I think I have astraphobia

hooooooo boy

this shit is gonna hit me pretty much dead on...kinda freaking out

So... like... real talk... should we be trying to find a reason to get the f outta Brooklyn this weekend or no?

Only if you're concerned about spending 1-2 days inside while it rains outside? Is it really going to be any more serious than that? Haven't read up on the whole news/fear-mongering campaign yet.

I'll be fine as long as the power is on.

I'm happy to spend up to 7 days inside while it rains! Just wonder if I'm underestimating things. Apparently my block is in a C-Zone on the NYC hurricane evacuation scale, whatever the hell that means. West Side Highway is a Zone A so I guess C is not too bad...

Oh hmm I see, that's mostly about storm surge flooding. I live like 5 miles inland so I am in no zone at all. I would def recommend getting things out of your basement, I guess? Or raising them up. I feel like basements could flood, because that is what basements do.

laurel i'm not sure you know what "fear-mongering" means

anyway yeah from the looks of things it seems like NYC is gonna get hit with irene as a cat 1 - some pretty legit flooding, widespread loss of power, not sure what kind of wind damage would occur in a city liket that. my apartment in connecticut is surrounded by trees so i may go into campus for a couple days if that's what they recommend

Cat 1 is the tamest out of 5 right?

yes, put an extra case of beer in the fridge just to be safe.

yeah

1 bottle Stoli Vanil

they're saying there's like a 30% chance this could reach category 5 which is nuts but it won't be that strong when it gets to new england. cat 5 is like, devastates everything in its path

if californians got to make fun of nyers and washingtonians for freaking out over a 2 second earthquake, do floridians get to make fun of the same ppl for freaking out over this hurricane?

btw if you live further north than DC i wouldn't worry about this thing, by the time it reaches ny it should prob be just a very bad thunderstorm

Maybe I'm not taking this storm thing seriously enough? But I'm assuming p much it will be windy and rainy. Your basement might flood (or your apartment, if it's in a basement). Other than these things, don't plan any picnics or bike rides? I don't get any tv reception or watch news so I'm just assuming they're talking about how Tropical Storm Irene could flatten lower Manhattan or whatever.

xxxp

hurricanes are pretty unpredictable and they're pretty easy to prepare for

also the higher up you are, the safer you & your things are, so if you live an apt don't freak out

also don't park your car near any trees

obv. don't "freak out," but this is a serious hurricane.

i'm saying this as a floridian whose seen hurricane katrina and wilma (both of which passed through/very near coral gables, where we live) and andrew (when i lived on kendall and 142nd; not the worst-hit area, obv., but an area hit very badly).

Well I mean if tree branches start coming through the glass windows, there's gonna be some clean-up, obviously. But we don't have storm shutters and like everyone else, I live in a rental, so I only have what my LL provided us with.

Also I'm scheduled to perform outdoors all day Saturday for a highland games on Long Island that's supposed to be held in a semi-wooded park. Would be willing to take bets on whether this goes ahead.

lol sarge come on...if this hits nyc as a category 2 it's gonna be a pretty big fuckin deal

if californians got to make fun of nyers and washingtonians for freaking out over a 2 second earthquake, do floridians get to make fun of the same ppl for freaking out over this hurricane?

floridians don't get to make fun of anyone for anything iirc

if you have a car and can leave it in a parking garage over the weekend, i'd make plans to do that

also if you don't have shutters you could, like, put masking tape across your windows -- or if you can get any access to plywood, that works

lol sarge come on...if this hits nyc as a category 2 it's gonna be a pretty big fuckin deal

― frogsb (k3vin k.), Wednesday, August 24, 2011 5:07 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark

oh i'm sure we'll hear all about it

i totally cannot tell who is being lol fearmongering and who is serious itt

I wonder if I can find somewhere interesting to go watch the storm from. I like strong weather.

I wish I had a porch.

mother earth tryin to kick us off this bitch

lol hoos

can anyone blame her for trying to wipe out DC?

rly lookin fwd to rick warren makin implications about earthquakes followed by hurricanes hitting dc tho

i totally cannot tell who is being lol fearmongering and who is serious itt

― Kerm, Wednesday, August 24, 2011 5:11 PM (3 minutes ago)

your boy is worried about trees falling on his car/apartment, j0rdan is being all lol florida jaded, laurel seems to be trying to get herself killed

trees aren't gonna fall on your carpartment

I dunno I don't think this is gonna be that bad

^^^remember that post, it might be fun to repost after thousands of people die

there's like a 1% chance that a tree or heavy tree branch falls on your car

this would have to be like cat 4 for something to fall into your apartment and do any damage

Wall Street under water, 20 years ahead of schedule, is fine by me

I'm hoping the subways flood and we can't go to work on Monday, tbh.

this would have to be like cat 4 for something to fall into your apartment and do any damage

Supposedly it's not an apples-to-apples thing w/r/t how much a category (n) will do in NYC. According to the gov't:

Due to regional geography, hurricanes in New York City — though infrequent — can do more damage than hurricanes of similar strength in the southern United States.

trailer parks and barely bothering to rebuild is a hedge against more frequent storms down here

Hipsturricane Irene Moves Toward Brooklyn

Looks more like Sunday afternoon for NYC now.

I'm hoping the subways flood and we can't go to work on Monday, tbh.

This would likely make the remaining 3 days of my work week HELL, so no thanks.

i had had plans to go to citi field sunday!
god does not want me to see the mets, i guess
good lookin out, god

2004-2006 we lost a few days of class on this, the first week of school, thanks to goddamn hurricanes. They're ok as long as you don't lose power.

p sure there's cannibalism, brother-on-brother murder & summary execution of looters all scheduled for city field next week, jc

I'm sayin git now - GET OUT OF NYC!

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/nationnow/2011/08/hurricane-irene-poised-to-slam-new-york-city-and-beyond.html

The ironically named Irene...

I dunt git it

mmm this is really fucking up my weekend plans. have to make a decision based on the % chance that metro north will be fucked up Monday morning.

I'm saying it now - GET OUT OF THE METRO!

Okay okay I'll make a safety/supplies list.

** I was going to post the old noize borad thread about what a noizer would need to survive the end times, but I've been looking for 10 minutes and I can't find it. :((( **

lol @ this from that latimes article -- 1st & earthquake yards to go

Monica Carrera
1st and earthquake...now a hurracaine....:/

I dunt git it

Irene (or Eirene) is the Greek goddess of peace

Im sayin git now -GOODNIGHT IRENE

I hope Tuesday's NY Post headline will be IRENE DONE

IRENE'D OVER

I hope it peters our completely before if hits the rustic shores of Maine but I fear there will be turtle blood on my back deck

So NYC people this might be helpful?

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hurricane_map_english.pdf

I don't want to scare anyone. I feel like it's mostly going to be like a bad thunderstorm but just in case?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmabwQ8omFc

never link to that clip again

According to FEMA, my house is not in a flood zone, but it's pretty damn close. If I get out of this unscathed I'm going to bake a cake.

I get after tihs bitch pisses through town there will be another one right after - just like Jerry said

in puerto rico today
http://cdn1.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/212036/HiPkB.jpg

what the

i hate it when sharks just cruise along in the fast lane

what the shit

three sharkpoolers inside

Cannot complete either of two lame jokes, the one involving Jets vs. Sharks the other involving waterskiing Fonzie

Peurto Rico in spanish means "Sharks swim in our highways"

"He also repeatedly warned New Yorkers: “Do not swim,” no matter how inviting it seems to dip into the water with the rip tides. It’s too dangerous, he said."

Bloomberg

"Gee that lethal riptide looks inviting!"

Before a previous hurricane didn't then-governor Mario Cuomo tell people something like "don't go out to look at it, it's not the dragon in a Chinese movie" or something like that?

Do not vote for the billionaire, no matter how inviting it seems to dip into his financial 'expertise'

I'm in a Zone C hurricane evac zone in brooklyn, but right across the street it's Zone B (worse).

stay on your side imo

What's funny is that is also the exact dividing line for gentrification in my part of willamsburg right now (across the street = 'luxury condos')

there must be a hurricaine drain in the middle

i mean maybe it's no coincidence-- the reason gentrif peters out here is because this is where the 5 and 6 story tenements with tons of rent-controlled family residents begin. Maybe it's also less hurricane vulnerable because of the same mass of stocky bldgs?

i dunno what the actual dif between zones is but it makes sense to build upscale condos on cheaper land for wider profit margins..

Higher elevation, I would think?? All the flood zone areas are low-lying.

yeah that's what i'd assume.. lower = more flood prone = less valuable = better target for developers

its all a conspiracy - the rich dont want to be bothered with evacuations

Um the problem is that the low-lying coastal areas are also "water view" material, so actually a ton of expensive high-rises/luxury converted lofts/lol yuppies kind of buildings get built on them.

yeah its the rich kidz who will be evacuating sooner than the dominican families per the zones, sorry if i gave the opposite impression

The NFIP amounts to a type of anti-environmental socialism. Scott Faber of American Rivers, a conservation organization, observed, “Prior to the 1960s, you didn’t have much development in flood-prone areas because you couldn’t find any insurer crazy enough to underwrite it. But the federal government came along and said it is okay—we are going to make it financially possible for you to live in a flood plain. The effect of this has been much more dramatic in coastal areas, where we have seen a huge boom in coastal development in the last 30 years.”5

The primary effect of federal flood insurance is that far more property is now damaged by floods than would have occurred if the insurance had not made it possible to build in flood-prone areas.The Long Island Regional Planning Board in 1989 complained that federal flood insurance “in effect encourages a cycle of repeated flood losses and policy claims.”6 And, especially in places like Long Island, the program underwrites the vacation homes of the wealthy.

Consider the experience of Topsail Island, a 26-mile island off the North Carolina coast right in the middle of “hurricane alley.” At a time when North Carolina Governor Jim Hunt was trying to discourage rebuilding on the island, FEMA came in and deluged the area with more than $100 million to rebuild private and public facilities after two hurricanes hit the island in 1996. In 1998, the island was hit by another hurricane—and FEMA rushed in to spend another $10 million to repair things. The 1998 damage was greater than it otherwise would have been because FEMA had extended the sewer system after the previous hurricane, thus opening the door to new development.7 Federal relief spending over a three-year period amounted to more than $10,000 for each permanent resident on the island.8 “The original development wasn’t sound, and now for the third time in three years, we’re going to have to come in and provide assistance. There’s very little common sense,’’ observed Kevin Moody of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.9 FEMA paid almost the entire cost of rebuilding local government buildings and infrastructure, and federal flood insurance paid the large majority of the cost of rebuilding private homes. The News and Observer in Raleigh noted that “the taxpayer-financed (FEMA) bailout [after the preceding hurricane] has reimbursed resort towns for just about any piece of public property that blew away in the storm. . . . (It) has undermined years of efforts to discourage unwise development.”10

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/uncle-sams-flood-machine/

its been insanity for years but what can they do now just say "forget it"

it could be phased out but the only people who stand to benefit are "all taxpayers" and there are plenty of special interests who count on the NFIP so no that will never ever happen. The insanity will continue, and I'll keep drinking coldbeers on Topsail Island in hot tubs newer than the last hurricane.

Considering that my street in Hoboken was under a foot of water a couple weeks ago from a fairly average storm, I'm not looking forward to this.

they should end the program right this second to avoid hurricaine Irenes catgina attack!

Kind of psyched about the chance to build a coracle...

Oh why couldn't it have been real ;_;

http://www.mediaite.com/online/wait-is-that-really-a-shark-swimming-in-a-puerto-rican-street/

Kind of psyched about the chance to build a coracle...

Was thinking about buying a large plastic wash-tub or an inflatable children's pool before the stores sell out.

Looks like no way the Carolinas or the northeast coast will avoid a hit. Good luck, guys!

have fun in florida!

why does weather.com still only have an 80$ chance of rain on sunday if apparently I'm gonna die in a hurricane

%

still undecided if i'm going to camp out this weekend with my parents inland in central NJ ... or stick it out in Hoboken so close to the Hudson River (and hoping that there's enough space left in one of the municipal garages so that my car doesn't get fucked up by water or flying debris).

are your folks that bad?

god just doesn't want you to have a car

haha ... no. it's more that they're not really safe from flooding either (they're about a mile from the Raritan River and their part of the state gets hit hard by flooding on a regular basis).

more accurately, they live on a hill so their house doesn't get flooded out (and they have a good sump-pump system in the basement). but when the river floods they are essentially living on an island surrounded by a moat ... which could make getting home a problem.

this shit just keeps moving farther westard, looks like my hometown of binghamton might get as much of an impact as i will at school now!

we're gonna get fucking SLAMMED.

hurricane party

Gonna eat everything in the freezer just in case the power goes out.

Popsicles first, then the corn-dogs I'd never admit to owning, followed by 16 cups of chicken consommé, two Tupperwares of char siu pork, some haricot vert, maybe an intermission of jambalaya, a jugo with peaches and fifty-three flavors of half-eaten ice cream pints, some sancocho from god-knows-when, and a freezer-burned bag of blueberries for finale.

rip outer banks/tangier island etc

heh. is it wrong i'm a little excited?

fuck man i just bought a buncha groceries last weekend! alla those gonna go bad now! $_$

you're in CT amirite k3vin?!?

man I was planning on going to ct if shit got bad in ny

you're in CT amirite k3vin?!?

― Murdered plants communicate with a bowl of shrimps in another room! (Eisbaer), Friday, August 26, 2011 12:06 AM (2 minutes ago)

correct, basically uconn campus

heh. is it wrong i'm a little excited?

I feel like these kinda disasters are weirdly exciting to people in the modern sorta boring world cause they're so unpredictable and out of the blue and you actually see them w/ your own eyes

whereras like 100 years ago, nobody would be like "woo hurricane!!"

I don't even think the concept 'woo' existed 100 years ago really

hey did you guys see that nate silver predicts that this hurricane is going to cause TEN BILLION DOLLARS worth of damage in nyc, lol

my mom called me earlier to remind me to "FILL UP YOUR BATHTUB IN CASE YOU NEED TO FLUSH YOUR TOILET"

i can't tell if this is hurricane preparedness or what

Have ppl started raiding suprtmarkets and stripping 'em bare of cat food and plenty ripe pineapples?

jesus trayce it's not like it's nuclear war

we're stealing oranges

http://i1011.photobucket.com/albums/af231/ExquisitExamplE/Simpsons08x08-HurricaneNeddyrl14-24.jpg

think ill watch that episode in honor of our impending doom

we've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas gets in my head like once a month at least

"Look, I'm a surfer!"

> Ooh maybe that means the waves will be good at the beach on Sat afternoon.

Exactly what I'm thinking ENBB. Best time based on predictions here is Saturday early morning daybreak before winds get too heavy, mostly overhead 7 to 8 footers with occasional even larger sets. Sunday will be too windy and choppy to surf, but wow, triple-overheaders (15 ft.) on the mid-atlantic east coast, likely to be too choppy to surf. Even if it wasn't - I'm fearless, but I'm not insane; and this is way beyond my capabilities.

They're shutting down highways and evacuating beachfronts everywhere though - may not be possible to even get there.

damn idk if it was b/c of the hurricane or w/e but i was standing in front of the open slider door earlier and the rain was coming in through the screen. i don't know what it's like out there now though

I bought a shit-ton of bottled water, but I'm going to go out and buy more. I'm having trouble thinking of good, shelf-stable vegetarian food that won't require cooking. So far all I've got are "fruit" and "nuts". I don't know - maybe fucking Clif Bars or something? Fuck.

buy a fuckton of beer and red wine too.

so they're shutting down the subways late tomorrow, presumably back Monday morning?

I'm going to the supermarket before work cuz tonight will be hell.

You guys might get Monday off.

They sent an email around at my work yesterday with the weather emergency line as a reminder. I'm really hoping for at least Monday off out of this.

hurricane coming

Stupid name for a hurricane.

If they shut down NYC transpo, my Saturday gig will be cancelled regardless of actual weather on Saturday, because none of us will be able to get home from wherever we're dropped off.

Might get a free Saturday out of this as well!

my mom called me earlier to remind me to "FILL UP YOUR BATHTUB IN CASE YOU NEED TO FLUSH YOUR TOILET"

my mom has fill her tub before hurricanes and blizzards and the like. I only think this is necessary if your water is drawn from a well by electric pump, tho.

I suggest you all fill your bathtubs with gin.

Yeah the gravity flush is a thing that you need when you have a well. I'm not sure about city water pressure, if it maintains when the power is out. But I think it does.

I think that if there is flooding, finding some water with which to flush the shitter with is not going to be one of the greatest challenges.

with

No, "with" is OK, unless you "with which"

There's not going to be flooding within easy reach of my bathroom, tho, is the problem with that.

You wait until the toilet starts backing up.

hurricane douche

why start flushing now?

get a bucket with a rope laurel

I don't live in a flood zone -- there's a reason they call this area "the heights".

get a longer rope silly

just shit out the window into the rising sewage below

Too busy fighting off the fleeing hordes to worry about poopsies.

via the JoeMyGod blog:

An MTA official speculated that heavy flooding "might drive millions of subway rats to seek higher ground." Oh, fantastic.

Reminds me of what Paul Lynde said when asked "How goes the rat race?"

can Mayor Bloomberg contact Mayor McCheese for counsel? he must have allot of experience with rats

cant believe im missing this amazing hurricane

just participate vicariously by staying in for three days & drinking gin in/from the bath

and shitting on people passing by on the streets below

bringing out everyone's inner GG Allin

Have ppl started raiding suprtmarkets and stripping 'em bare of cat food and plenty ripe pineapples?

― Silent Hedgehogs (Trayce), Friday, August 26, 2011 12:44 AM (10 hours ago)

last night i went to the store & the water shelf was completely bare, was pretty funny

yeah isnt water dangerous?

I went shopping this morning, woman leaving right in front of me had a cart with 3 mega-jugs of water.

how can water be dangerous if you need it to live?! WAKE UP SHEEPLE!!

Two things I didn't think about that I will actually do! to prepare.

1. Get a lot of cash from the bank before I go home today. (Well, "a lot" like, relative to what I usually carry, which is less than twenty bucks.

2. Freeze giant blocks of tap water in my freezer in my biggest tupperware/mixing bowls, to be put in the fridge to keep temp down if power goes out.

Guys, it's perfectly safe to drink urine.

Just as long as it someone else's else you get some horrible urinary feedback problem.

The city’s official Web site, www.nyc.gov, appears to be overwhelmed by those seeking information about Hurricane Irene, rendering it inaccessible as of Friday morning.

Efforts to log onto the site have been unsuccessful since about 9 a.m.

The city may be a victim of its own aggressive campaign to publicize warnings about the storm: Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg has repeatedly directed New Yorkers to the Web site, which contains maps of evacuation zones and tips on how to remain safe.

going to stock up on beer and wine this weekend

like i do every weekend

to outlast irene get lost of cheese and chocolate and wine and iron

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at4.shtml?gm

I bitched about this in the Chicago thread, but my parents live at the beach in DE and are under an evacuation order but won't leave because they are those people.

those ppl

Are they gonna sit on their front porch with shotguns on their laps?

don't be namin' my harbor as a storm surge harbor!

Are they gonna sit on their front porch with shotguns on their laps?

Likely.

JFR that storm surge graphic is completely awesome and useful, thanking u

this is a long thread but has anybody explained how quickly hurricanes lose strength when they make landfall? if you're in NYC, you have absolutely nothing to worry about except maybe some bands of heavy rain. anybody north of Virginia can relax. i've been through several hurricanes. this one is relatively weak and landfall predicted so far away from NYC that all the fuss NYC folks are making really is some 'sky is falling' bullshit. chill out. you're going to be pissed when nothing happens but you can't go anywhere because your mayor is a dipshit.

I'm already kind of pissed about that, it may lead to the Saturday night fight being canceled, and I was looking forward to it.

'heavy rainfall' is enough to disable a subway system built 100 years ago, also bloomberg doesn't run it

this is a long thread but has anybody explained how quickly hurricanes lose strength when they make landfall? if you're in NYC, you have absolutely nothing to worry about except maybe some bands of heavy rain. anybody north of Virginia can relax. i'

so many factors: strength upon landfall, how far inland it goes, whether it can still draw energy from open water. Living in Florida, I've gotten to the point where I take hurricanes case by case. They can be weaker than expected, in which case you lose a couple days of work but not your electricity, and you just drink for two days; or they can be far worse like Wilma in 2005. But for god's sake should you all survive this one and get nothing but a bad summer afternoon squall don't assume all hurricanes are like this.

12 inches of rainfall sounds like a legit obtacle underground... but then we had 8 in one day about 2 weeks ago!

xp

this is a long thread but has anybody explained how quickly hurricanes lose strength when they make landfall? if you're in NYC, you have absolutely nothing to worry about except maybe some bands of heavy rain. anybody north of Virginia can relax. i've been through several hurricanes. this one is relatively weak and landfall predicted so far away from NYC that all the fuss NYC folks are making really is some 'sky is falling' bullshit. chill out. you're going to be pissed when nothing happens but you can't go anywhere because your mayor is a dipshit.

― brotherlovesdub, Friday, August 26, 2011 12:15 PM (2 minutes ago)

didn't know ilx had a meteorologist!

but no this is a large hurricane which means it'll weaken slower - all forecasts still have it at category 1 strength when it hits NYC

this one is relatively weak and landfall predicted so far away from NYC that all the fuss NYC folks are making really is some 'sky is falling' bullshit. chill out.

Intensity forecasting hasn't been nailed yet! It MAY deteriorate to a Cat One by the time it hits the Northeast. Let's assume it does: we've endured some horrible Cat Ones, some of which didn't begin with as much energy as Irene has.

Isn't its slow movement a factor, too?

a 'weakened' a maelstrom with a 400 mile diameter is nothing to snark at.

remember bob? and gloria?

I call this a category Bitchgina!

Irene's Bitchgina and the flattening of Raleigh

going to stock up on beer and wine this weekend

― Peanut Butter... in my chocolate? (brownie), Friday, August 26, 2011 3:48 PM (37 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

like i do every weekend

― Peanut Butter... in my chocolate? (brownie), Friday, August 26, 2011 3:48 PM (37 minutes ago) Bookmark

<3

remember the safest place to be in a hurricane is a whalegina

i do NOT have a battery-powered radio, which means I may go shopping on Canal St at lunch

apparently they don't softpedal stuff in Connecticut (NYT blog):

In #CT, @GovMalloyOffice says "large-scale" power losses possible – “not just for a few hours - days and weeks."

there may never be electricity again! who can say?!?

I'm glad my Dann Electro sounds pretty good un-amped.

idk obviously public officials are going to make a big deal about a hurricane, no one wants to be blamed for lack of preparation or for rescue & recovery resources being late or unavailable. in other words HURRICANE KATRINA: NEVER FORGET

"you could be on your roof at this time Sunday"

for their own safety, residents are encouraged to build arks no smaller than 300 cubits in length, breadth 50 cubits, and height 30 cubits and bring at least two of each animal

lolz

stay safe this weekend, east coasters; i'd buy you all emergency gin if i could

amazon has shifted its one-day shipping estimated date until Monday. So much for my last-minute camping-stove idea.

if you see any anacondas in new york - panic - the zoo may escape

something's gotta eat all those rats

but who's gonna eat the anacondas?

I feel bad for all the moose up near you, Latham. Their gigantic antlers are so aerodynamically disinclined –– what if they blow away? What if they get, like shrubbery entangled? Think of all that surface area. Seriously, though, I feel bad for the animals. Chipmunks are basically reduced to shrieking, furry, projectiles of cute death.

other boroughs

the mongeese xps

And rabbits must get earaches from all that whistling wind.

Now it's "late Sunday" for NYC... great, let's shut the city down right now, why take chances?

at least we can all go to church first and pray to Cheezits for safe passage on the booze-dark murk. New thread idea: Good hurricane movies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VCZS__-NTI

"to bring these moose back to life to educate the public" sounds like an amazing idea, but the execution is ... disappointing.

Key Largo surely the first choice xp

Whaddya have, a hot date or somethin', Dr. Morbius?

i have a weird blind spot about never wanting to check the weather forecast so i never have any concept of what's going to happen until it's something big like this. can someone just give me a heads up itt about whenever this is supposed to hit maryland?

Top Hat (1935)

http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/USMD0018:1?phenomena=TR&significance=W&areaid=MDZ011&office=KLWX&etn=1009

THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING.

... WINDS... AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES... SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SATURDAY EVENING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

cool. i think i'm gonna take my son to the park, sounds like that won't be an option this weekend.

James Barron, NYT:

With Hurricane Irene pushing relentlessly toward the East Coast, officials made plans to shut down New York City’s sprawling subway and bus system beginning at noon on Saturday, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said.

The commuter rail lines that serve Long Island, Westchester County and Connecticut will also be shut down.

Officials decided to go ahead with the transit shutdown, which they had first mentioned on Thursday as a possibility at a City Hall briefing on Thursday, as the city was evacuating hospitals and nursing homes in low-lying areas. Sstate officials continued arrangements for coordinating emergency services and restoring electricity if the storm does the kind of damage many fear.

Some Atlantic City casinos made plans to stop rolling the dice and turn off the slot machines by 8 p.m. Friday. The naval submarine base in Groton, Conn., sent four submarines out to ride out the storm deep in the Atlantic Ocean. And Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey said that all lanes of 28-mile stretch of a major highway in Ocean County would go in only one direction — westward — beginning at 6 p.m. on Friday to help speed the trip away from Long Beach Island.Those preparations came as states of emergency remained in effect in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Homeowners scrambled to cover windows with plywood and boaters struggled to get their vessels away from docks. In New York, apartment dwellers with balconies and terraces hauled in patio furniture and potted plants, and stores ran short on staples like batteries, flashlights and bottled water. In shore towns on Long Island and in New Jersey, vacationers waited in lines at gasoline stations and watched as emergency crews piled sandbags on low-lying beach roads.

"Those preparations came as states of emergency remained in effect in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. Homeowners scrambled to cover windows with plywood and boaters struggled to get their vessels away from docks. In New York, apartment dwellers with balconies and terraces hauled in patio furniture and potted plants, and stores ran short on staples like batteries, flashlights and bottled water. In shore towns on Long Island and in New Jersey, vacationers shat on passers by below and waited in lines at gasoline stations and watched as emergency crews piled sandbags on low-lying beach roads."

Should we create an Irene thread?

Sully's blog posted this letter from a Floridian:

If you actually get hit by a hurricane you are somewhat screwed. Construction of everything in Florida takes into account hurricanes. We have shutters or shatterproof windows. We don't have water towers on top of buildings or any type of siding in our houses, even street signs and lamps are designed for storms. Our drainage systems are designed to reasonably handle several inches of rain per hour. For geographic reasons, we have one tunnel in the entire state and nothing subterranean like a subway or basement. Heck, people in the Florida Keys aren't allowed to have a first floor at ground level. A selling point for a house or condo in Florida is that it is on the same power grid as a hospital or jail. There are a lot of generators, and if you don't have one, a person with a generator quickly gets reminded of all the nice things you did for them.

The Northeast has little or none of this.

Having been through more than half a dozen hurricanes, there are a couple necessities that don't make the list too often. A pack of cards, a lot of wine and a bunch of books are as much necessities as batteries and flashlights.

so malloy is shutting down CT for the weekend it appears - hopefully this means no class monday

Good luck NYC. I'm just hoping this is another case of the more prepared, the less intense the storm actually is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmtuRRhtGQw

New thread Hurricane Irene

eesh at ominous mention of precarious water towers

this is a long thread but has anybody explained how quickly hurricanes lose strength when they make landfall? if you're in NYC, you have absolutely nothing to worry about except maybe some bands of heavy rain. anybody north of Virginia can relax. i've been through several hurricanes. this one is relatively weak and landfall predicted so far away from NYC that all the fuss NYC folks are making really is some 'sky is falling' bullshit. chill out. you're going to be pissed when nothing happens but you can't go anywhere because your mayor is a dipshit.

― brotherlovesdub, Friday, August 26, 2011 12:15 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark

shhhh TEN BILLION DOLLARS

The Floridian who wrote that letter is aware that the northeastern US gets storms severe enough to be named after the region, right?

Yeah, no. A bunch of those points abt how Florida is different are not applicable to up here, plus some are just wrong: LOTS of people have generators in the NE, dude. Because of this little thing, called winter.

crazy little thing called winter

Yeah, I'm not sure what part of the NE s/he thinks is so magically storm free. Nor'easters are even shaped like hurricanes.

fatt bottomed storms make the rockin worl dgo round

overrated hurricane preparations i have taken

my prep includes going to the clam shack tonight, because if the storm takes me out, i want to go happy and with heaps of fried seafood inside me

"My Big Day with INtestine full of Crustaceans "

If the power goes out, it's imperative to eat the seafood first!

you'll soon be food for the sea after all

http://topiat.com/system/images/193/originals/CircleOfLife2-WP.jpg

i think that Fat Governor is trying to position himself for a Rudy on 9/11 role.

i wonder how many terms he can get himself as fake president?

Lepage?

bb just ordered evacuation of all 1st floor residents?

Erika looking like a tame storm that might even get pwned by wind shear over the next 12-24.

hasn't stopped the locals from panicking and overreacting, but that's part for the course here in Cent FL.

any other Floridians 'stocking up'?

Nope. I'm hoping for a day off.

hah yeah. sadly I work from home these days so the power's gonna have to go off for that to happen for me.

it's dissipated

this sounds bad

yep

Wind map:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-111.07,17.94,3000

from tropical storm to cat 5 hurricane w/200mph winds in 30 hours

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/23/hurricane_patricia_nears_mexico_at_record_strength.html

Over the past 30 hours, Patricia’s central pressure has fallen by 114 millibars, from 994 to 880—possibly beating the world’s record for fastest intensification. Since lower air pressure drives faster wind speeds, such a fast intensification has greatly increased the storm’s strength—Patricia strengthened by 100 mph in 24 hours, the most in the era of complete data coverage by weather satellites. This historic data was collected by a hurricane hunter aircraft flying through the center of Patricia, which departed the storm as it was still strengthening. Shortly after the research plane left, satellite estimates of Patricia’s intensity broke the Dvorak scale, peaking at 8.3 on the 8.0 scale.

In fact, Patricia is now very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#PATRICIA

very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth

^omg at this

Its contours remind me so much of Hurricane Andrew. Hoping for the best. Ugh.

very close to the theoretical maximum strength for a tropical cyclone on planet Earth

FWIW, I think the theoretical maximum velocity is from this study. Maximum azimuthal velocity is ~100 m/s = 223 mph (Fig 7).

This is way higher than empirical maximum velocity, which for the Western Pacific is a function of sea temperature, and peaks around 80 m/s = 179 mph (Fig 1).

from tropical storm to cat 5 hurricane w/200mph winds in 30 hours

yeah this is insane.

horrifying

http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/23/CSAQYdYUYAAPe66.jpg.CROP.promo-xlarge2.jpg

Latest forecast is even worse!
http://www.wired.com/wp-content/uploads/images_blogs/wiredscience/2013/03/emperor-penguin-ir-image-solo.jpg

how populous is the area where landfall is expected? what is the state of evacuation procedures?

(too lazy to google)

Guadalajara, jeezus

Yeah, a hunk of Jalisco, right? Puerto Vallarta, etc? The place my friends stayed at last year is on lockdown.

The radio said guests in the line of landfall were told to pack bags and blankets and be ready to be bussed 6 miles further inland. But procedure sounded unclear on the radio.

https://twitter.com/Enrique_Acevedo/status/657720628452048896/video/1

Scott Kelly took this photo from the ISS

http://i.imgur.com/6fPFbZb.jpg

wtf

Weakened quickly

The good thing about these intense storms is that they require intense energy to sustain themselves.

Hurricane Matthew. We're supposed to go to Charleston this weekend, but right now it is (literally?) up in the air. Even called a living history museum to ask if I should buy tour tickets, and they told me to play it by ear. Meanwhile, authorities have given the heads up to every eastern state from Florida to Maine, though only FL and NC have declared preemptive states of emergency. It's a pretty huge storm, but storms do weird things. The hotel guy in SC I spoke with noted that the last time they predicted a hurricane the Low Country got nothing, but a couple of years ago there was a huge rain storm that left like 6 feet of water in the streets and stranded him in the hotel for a couple of days, so he said there's only so much planning you can do.

I dunno. I have a bad feeling we'll be pocketing our plane tickets and eating some of the hotel reservation, then heading to Milwaukee for something more modest. And dry.

I'm going to Disney World this weekend. I guess.

Orlando should be ok, right? But dunno how much flights will be disrupted.

these things are really hard to forecast 4-5 days out, which they've admitted. Orlando might take a direct hit or might just get bad weather due to it being off the coast.

my friends have a wedding this Saturday and the poor things are freaking out about the storm.

Story on Haiti this morning sort of heartbreaking. The government there declared a state of emergency, said to take precautions and/or evacuate areas, but supplied no further guidance, transportation, or funds (because they really have none). So the people there are basically stuck doing nothing.

and most of the homes there aren't built to withstand a hurricane.

it really sucks that they're pretty much perennially always in danger during hurricane season :(

SC gov shutting down offices and schools in advance, switching traffic lanes and calling for evacuation app. 100 miles inland from coastal areas. Sounds a bit better safe than sorry this far in advance, but at the same time ... man. We might have to eat the cost of these plane tickets, because even if the airport stays open dunno what condition the city will be in (flooding, power, traffic, etc.). Or maybe they will get nothing. Oh well.

I personally wouldn't chance it.

Hi!

Meanwhile schools still open tomorrow and Thursday in Miami-Dade despite the storm's proximity by then.

I'd be...shocked if Orlando felt more than a toss of the branches. I had friends who were in Disney during Hurricane Frances and another set during Charley a month earlier and it was a dream: it's the best place on earth to be during a storm because the power never goes out and, if you're in a Disney hotel, characters entertain in the lobby.

They should evacuate everyone to Disney World.

Been following the Charleston Reddit thread (I know) and there are already stories of traffic and gas lines/shortages.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Charleston/comments/55vat0/charleston_hurricane_evacuation_megathread/

I lived in Longwood (30 minutes out of Orlando) during Charley and we got 80 mph winds, mostly just shingle damage, lost power for a night. Jeanne and Frances were more annoying because they were slow moving and everything was already weakened, but still didn't get much damage, or lose power for more than a night. many of my co-workers lost power for a week.

but with that said, the six major models not agreeing with each other and the average is what's largely putting FL in the crosshairs, but I bet the Carolinas take the hit (and I'm glad my folks don't live there anymore). I am rooting for no storm as two of my friends are getting married and the bride is beside herself trying to find an alternate venue right now *just in case* as theirs has no generator. can't think of someone who deserves that less!

man I wish I coulda opened a general store overnight, everybody including my mother is freaking out and asking if I'm prepping and do I wanna stay with them. I'm like....call me tomorrow if it's still a problem, I ain't bought shit, nor am I planning to go anywhere.

one of my co-workers today declined an invite to go into the office for a group lunch because *the weather might be terrible Thursday*, we're all like, dude, if it is, none of us are going to be in the office, so why bail on it now?

the gas shortage shit pisses me off because it's always caused by people reacting to the shortage they themselves wind up causing. nobody needs five full canisters of gasoline.

I remember in 04 being near empty and chastising myself because station after station was plastic bagged for miles.

04 sucked. Bush plus hurricanes = bleh

Frances and Jeanne were slow annoying rainmakers for us. Remember how Frances sat and didn't move at all for two days between Palm Beach and Martin counties? We lost no power in MDC but we were locked at home for three days on Labor Day weekend.

yeah the worst was being a Best Buy employee and losing days of work when I needed them. and boredom. all the boredom. people came in to Best Buy not to shop but for the air conditioning.

but then I heard tales of friends who had houses destroyed in Orlando during Charley and I realized sometimes boredom is ok.

I was in a production of Fiddler on the Roof at the time that rehearsed in a hotel in Lake Mary and the hotel we used got flooded so bad we couldn't rehearse there the weekend after.

then again, considering we had our Fruma Sara split open his chin during a dress rehearsal due to a stage accident, our Golde get a concussion by face-planting into a pole during dress rehearsal and then getting involved in a head-on vehicle collision shortly after the show, and our Tzeitel killing two children in an infamous "texting while driving" vehicular accident a month after it ended, it mighta been better if the hurricane had wiped out the theatre.

the house destroyed in Orlando tho we think was more due to spawned tornadoes than the hurricane

huh -- I'd forgotten about Patricia.

looks like the chances Orlando gets trop storm winds on the lower end is in the upper 70% now :/.

which tbh doesn't faze me - just don't want my new apt (that I move into next month) getting fuxored, or my friends' wedding getting fuxored, or the Meshuggah/Bad Religion concerts next week getting fuxored. you know, the important things.

guess this means no Halloween Horror NIghts!

local news got real click-baity overnight. despite the track staying much the same, now this is the "greatest weather threat we ever faced" (remember Floyd in 99, before it did its unexpected turn and missed us? stfu!), we could take a direct hit, etc....

I get that they're trying to make sure people take it seriously but they're confusing residents into thinking we are supposed to take a direct hit now according to the track.

in either case I'm not going anywhere unless models show it going much further west at next few updates.

It says volumes about my faith in weather reportage that I'm gonna be seeking counsel with all y'all itt with eyes on the ground. We aren't flying down until Saturday so it sounds like we're gonna miss whatever goes down...? Who even knows.

MDC schools closing tomorrow and Friday; no word yet on my university.

xxpost - it's hard to say, because now the track has slowed and the storm may still be brushing FL coast Saturday morning.

Wonderful. Thanks, Obama.

I do wish the best for all my FL friends and family as this scrubs the coast. Worrying about these more and more each yer

Well, we just cancelled our Charleston hotel reservations. They were totally cool and we were not penalized. All the places we were going to hit in the city - restaurants and the like - will apparently be shut for the weekend as well. Pretty much the only thing not cancelled is our flight, but I have a hunch that is next on the docket.

Airlines are waiving cancellation fees, I just read.

good luck SE ppl

First Coast braces by closing Duval and St. John County Public schools (same for UNF) Thurs - Sat

http://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=380&v=paiBwhs2L7Q

whoops, my bad.

In what I can only term an ironic turn, we have changed out travel from Charleston to New Orleans.

goddammit

i got like...12 gatorades and drank 3 already, and a few snacks that I've eaten most of already. have a quarter tank. bring on teh storm

(probably staying with my folks so I didn't go nuts)

if what is forecast occurs here, it isn't anything I haven't been through before. a further westward tick tho and I'll be in new unwanted territory.

my friend whom I will call Buck is basically "bring out your dead"-ing all over FB, apparently confusing a general statement from the NWS about loss of life and uninhabitable areas to mean that Florida is about to get FP'ed

which to me is like, bro, do you really think nobody knows how serious things are prior to you blubbering about it

SeaWorld closing Friday, shutting down early Thursday for Hurricane Matthew

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-seaworld-closing-friday-hurricane-matthew-approaches-20161005-story.html

geez why won't Universal follow suit. my brother is being told they will be open for Halloween Horror Nights tomorrow (he is an actor in one of the shows).

seriously? ugh

yeah. there's no way they don't blink on that one, they're just waiting as long as they can, but he is actually acting like he's gonna go in.

local news seriously begins an article "Hurricane Matthew is wet, hot, and wild".

I think they mean "Lord Soto"

Man, that scary skull face in the weather map ...

I take offense.

suspect this is just a v elaborate PR campaign for the latest M. Night film

i feel like I stay pretty calm but my friends and family freaking out makes me think I'm wrong to be and then I freak out.

being a coast-hugging storm makes this one a lot more "2 inches to the left, you were a goner" than most storms, where a slight margin of error isn't the difference between like...30-40 mph fluctuation.

i would rather stay in my apt cos it's on the second floor and obscured well enough that projectiles won't come flying, but what can I say, mid-30s and I still would rather please my mama

https://cdn.ampproject.org/i/media4.giphy.com/media/l0MYxGftwpSqAiFkk/giphy-downsized-medium.gif

being a coast-hugging storm makes this one a lot more "2 inches to the left, you were a goner" than most storms, where a slight margin of error isn't the difference between like...30-40 mph fluctuation.

Reminds me of Andrew -- a similar scenario. At the last possible moment it moved 20 miles south and destroyed Homestead.

One day closer to impact and the forecast has not changed, which is terrible news for Florida. The center of Hurricane Matthew will rake up the coastline, exposing a vast area of real estate to its most destructive force — its dangerous northern eye wall. Matthew will be a potentially historic nightmare for nearly the entire east coast of Florida.

Hurricane Matthew was a Category 4 on Thursday morning, and it could strengthen even more before it reaches Florida. The coastal section that Matthew has targeted north of Palm Beach has not seen a hurricane this strong make landfall in the entire period of record since 1850. In all likelihood, Matthew will scrape along the coast as a Category 4 with sustained winds of 145 mph. The results will be catastrophic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

and it looks like it's looping back next week1

damn matt

geez why won't Universal follow suit. my brother is being told they will be open for Halloween Horror Nights tomorrow (he is an actor in one of the shows).

― Neanderthal, Wednesday, October 5, 2016 8:20 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

"Walt Disney World has canceled tonight's Mickey's Not So Scary Halloween Party as Hurricane Matthew approaches.

There was still no word from Disney or Universal Orlando about general park closures, and Universal has not canceled tonight's Halloween Horror Nights. "Universal Orlando Resort is closely monitoring the weather and at this time there are no changes to our operating hours," its website says this morning"

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-matthew-disney-cancels-not-so-scary-halloween-20161006-story.html

JFC stay safe people

Universal also tried to pay its HHN employees a wage lower than what they initially promised and weren't going to back down despite acknowledging the mistake until a group of them assembled and got them to honor the request.

scum

Was reading on a couple of other threads that Statewide so-called right-to-work laws make it hard for people to be safe, because they can be fired for leaving their jobs, even in the face of a hurricane.

HHN is finally officially closed. I was about to tell my brother to tell them to fuck off anyway.

my local news has used the word "worst case scenario" to describe three different developments in the last 24 hours. trying to get clarification on which of the worst is the worst.

because of this, there are a lot of close-by friends panicking because they're misunderstanding the forecasts for the coast to be for us.

in a few hours I'm logging out of work to be with my folks, ahh the joys of being virtual, I can't even easily take a day off when the office is closed (which it is doing at noon). my boss however is great and said i can leave whenever i need to.

I can't even easily take a day off when the office is closed

what if your internet/cell service "went out" if u know what i mean

lol more than likely that is happening tomorrow anyway whether we lose power or not, cos of the cleanup that will be required. good thing I finished my assignments for the week.

lol my downstairs neighbor came by to report a leak from my unit. I was kinda like "aww, just wait a few hours, there'll be more"

epic

https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/status/784042211881148416

Universal theme parks closing because of hurricane

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-universal-parks-closing-hurricane-20161006-story.html

Also, "We are constantly updating this master list of everything that is closing because of Hurricane Matthew."

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-matthew-closings-story.html

Disney World's closing -- that's how you know it's serious.

Miami-Dade and even Broward counties are looking increasingly good. About 20 minutes ago Matthew was parallel to the county's north border, so we're at 5 percent chance of hurricane force winds. I don't want to jinx it, but for us in MDC it's looking like a four-day weekend.

Me? I'm drinking a beer -- that's how you know times are strange -- and about to watch, appropriately, the Criterion Tie Me Up! Tie Me Down!

https://media.giphy.com/media/12lcK4lcBRI092/giphy.gif

My current state of mind keeps recalling a scene from Reservoir Dogs.

Officer Old Lunch: First they close the airport, then they close Disney World. Now I feel like I'm not going to get to go on vacation at all...
Mr. Orange County: Fuck you! Fuck you! Governor Scott says we're fuckin' dying! We're fuckin' dying!

I was going to offer you our well appointed basement here Al. But instead I may need to just come down to your place for the beer.

It's going to be glorious fall weather up here in the Confederacy.

but seriously though, thinking about Daytona Beach boardwalk right about now...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1fzJ_AYajA

stay safe, everyone. :-/

@WaffleHouse
All Waffle House restaurants on 1-95 between Titusville, FL and Fort Pierce, FL are closed. Stay safe Waffle Nation! #HurricaneMatthew

My Matthew diary: http://wp.me/pzXeC-5r9

@DRUDGE
The deplorables are starting to wonder if govt has been lying to them about Hurricane Matthew intensity to make exaggerated point on climate

shit, drudge is onto the plan. and somehow the govt managed to get prominent progressive operative Rick Scott on board with the plan. this shit goes even deeper than we thought...

From Democracy Now!'s facebook page

Are you preparing for or experiencing the impacts of Hurricane Matthew? We'd like to hear from you! Send us your story, photo or video at stor✧✧✧@democracy✧✧✧.o✧✧, or post below in the comments.

oh, hell: stories at democracynow dot org

fox news disagrees with drudge: https://twitter.com/Deathbymartymar/status/784122375424004096

jeez

just when you think he couldn't be a bigger asshole

one of my colleagues asked me if I could move a meeting Friday (I was actually in process of doing it), and told me she's near the beach. meaning she clearly hadn't evacuated. I'm just realizing she's in one of the areas that might get hit hard, kinda worried for her.

right now Orlando is supposed to get tropical storm winds (which could be anything from 39-73 mph), 41% chance of hurricane winds. have been through both before, but they are talking about a potential eastern wobble tomorrow.

wondering if this thing will Floyd us and do a weird last minute shuffle away.

I worry about Orlando (not Disney) b/c it's not used to hurricane conditions.

pray to jah no wobble

we'll be aight I think. Cape Canaveral might be where landfall is now, and still isn't guaranteed to make it at all.

I think they're overplaying the loop-de-loop - the Euro model doesn't seem to show it in as many models, and they say it would be unlikely for a strong storm to hit us again.

my friends had to move their wedding back two months. can't even imagine how stressed they are.

well a wobble away would be good, east as opposed to west...west would be ick, don't even wanna consider

My sis and 4 kids are in Boca Raton getting nervous for them. They weren't told to evacuate but....

from Gizmodo:

Here's the thing about Matthew: Space Coast has never dealt with anything like it. Not in launch history; not in meteorological records dating back to 1851. The storm is projected to pass perilously close to Florida's entire eastern seaboard beginning later today, with a Category 3 or 4 eye passing directly over Kennedy Space Center on Friday, according to Weather Underground meteorologist Jeff Masters. "We're talking about a storm that's basically hitting dead-on," Masters told Gizmodo. "I'd expect at least 90 mile per hour winds."

Spottie, Boca and the rest of PBC look increasingly in the clear too.

oh that's great to hear thx

Space Coast, yow.....90 mile an hour winds in that exposed area

OMFG @ that Fox News clip. I had no idea they had gone so far off the rails.

But, yeah, it's looking increasingly likely that we'll be cancelling our trip to FL altogether. Rats.

Be safe, everyone.

Seminole County will impose a mandatory curfew countywide from 5 a.m. Friday to 7 a.m. Saturday.

"The most important thing we can do is make sure that every person lives," Scott said.

Seminole Sheriff Eslinger said his deputies will be on patrol for looters and price gouging in the days after the storm passes.

"We won't tolerate anyone taking advantage of anyone in our community," Eslinger said.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/--os-rick-scott-sanford-hurricane-matthew-20161006-story.html

Seminole likes to do that - did it for the hurricanes in 04 too. you'd think nobody wants to go out in this and yet, you'll see cars poppin' down the street like it's a normal Saturday and then you get why they do them.

Rick Scott seriously needs to take a public speaking class. say what you will about Jeb but at least he could do that.

just when you think he couldn't be a bigger asshole

― Neanderthal, Thursday, October 6, 2016 5:22 PM (one hour ago)

wait what do you have against shep?

shep was obviously trying to convince people to heed the warnings, be extra safe, evacuate

Rick Scott seriously needs to take a public speaking class. say what you will about Jeb but at least he could do that.

― Neanderthal, Thursday, October 6, 2016

Well, Bush sounded as if he understood that the state had programs and powers it could use.

xpost I was calling Drudge the asshole, sorry

praying that the ghost crabs will all be safe

binge watching Cheers, wind here is near 20 mph and isn't supposed to pick up until like 2 am......i'll probably wait up til the 11 pm update and call it a night

Amazed at the number of people I've talked with here (Chicago) who had no idea about the hurricane. I mean, I get that it's somewhere else, but jeez.

Equally amazed/surprised/disappointed to encounter a couple people who, when told we'd changed our trip from Charleston to New Orleans, exclaimed "But what about the hurricane!?!"

eastbound wobble. storm may not make landfall. still gonna be a bitch of a storm, but where I'm at may be spared hurricane winds.

coast may still get pounded but would be nice if it keeps jumping east - the models all seem to be saying that.

funny moment, local newscaster sees a car driving by and starts talking about how it was irresponsible for a car to be out and how he didn't understand why people were out and then the cop comes into view of the camera and it's a police car and he looks embarrassed.

http://i.imgur.com/On3sZmG.png

lol

Uhhh.. http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/06/opinions/staying-put-during-hurricane-matthew/index.html

My friend (whose wedding got postponed 2 months due to this storm) just erupted at these assholes mocking the *weakness* of the storm. My friend otm. The coast is still getting hit hard.

30 mph wind here and still have power. Im about ready to start workin! :)

Hoping it stays steady cos some squalls are coming

Every time I look at the news for, well, news, it just reiterates what *might* happen. But what *is* happening? Rain, high winds and power outages, but nothing serious (yet)?

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-gardens/article106628762.html#storylink=latest_side

Hurricane tensions ran a bit high at one South Florida Walmart.

On a video posted to social media, two customers have a knock-down, drag-out fight in the middle of the Miami Gardens store, 19501 NW 27th Ave.

The two woman yank on each others hair, scream and punch. At one point, one woman rams another woman with her shopping cart so hard, the victim’s breasts fell out of her dress.

In response, she started hurling cans of food at the other woman.

An employee at the store, who declined to be named, said police weren’t called and no one was injured.

Every time I look at the news for, well, news, it just reiterates what *might* happen. But what *is* happening? Rain, high winds and power outages, but nothing serious (yet)?

― Josh in Chicago

MSNBC and NBC have reporters on the ground; I've got the former on.

Those are live reports/TV news, then, right? I was just looking at "print."

Terrible breaking news on top of weather.com: "Matthew Kills 1, 650,000+ In The Dark." Scans like it killed 1,650,000.

weather.com is the worst with their clickbait. They've even toned it down and it's still bad.

my god Bryan Norcross has aged

yeah weather.com is still saying "ONE SMALL SHIFT COULD BE CATASTROPHIC", which, while that's true, at this point the storm is here, y'know.

our local networks have finally toned down the rhetoric. I only use NHC's website, Weather Underground, and Mike's Weather Page (minus reading the comments) because they share just the pertinent facts without saying emotional, subjective crap like "greatest threat we've ever faced" or using "this is the worst case scenario" to describe three very different developments over the span of a day.

People already bitching about how the NHC got it wrong, when it was actually a really good forecast, stayed in the cone, and they always made clear in their Discussions that it was impossible to pinpoint predict the path on a coast-hugger, and they had to hedge their bets on the west/east movement based on what the Euro and GFS models were saying to prevent loss of life. can't believe how many assholes (fortunately nobody I know personally) going on about how overblown the storm is while it's still here and while the coast is getting its ass kicked right now.

y'know, be happy that you're on the internet to bitch about it...

the problem with Shep's forecast was, while he was clearly talking about a very specific part of Brevard county, and only if the storm shifted 20 miles inland, everybody took it to mean that he told all of Florida they were going to die. civilians don't hear what is actually said with storm forecasts, esp when the networks are covering such a large area that people conflate forecasts for another area for their own.

now it's become a meme already

I'm happy with NHC's forecasts. MDC never got a hurricane warning, and even Broward County was told late Wednesday night that its chances of getting hurricane force winds was dropping as Matthew headed northwest. The storm's gotten picked up by the jet stream -- exactly as NHC said it would.

Smith was in New Orleans for Katrina and worked in Florida for a while, which I'm sure molded his thinking

yep. their wind probability forecast was pretty on the money too - I found myself glued to it.

xpost yeah, he wasn't wrong, but I can tell the locals misread him, as friends of mine already posting "Hey Shep, we're alive, unlike what you predicted", when that's not what he said.

then you see the interviews w/ people who didn't evacuate and their roof is coming off and they're calling emergency services who can't come and you kinda get why.

someone that was a farmer posted 75% of their crops got destroyed - definitely people getting legit fucked by the storm, still, unfortunately.

My sister in honeymooning in the Keys right now, which luckily is a bit west of the hurricane and so the worst they're having to endure is some bad weather and bars being closed. But we're getting some worried calls from friends.

reports from friends and family in Jax have been mixed, but largely positive, if not the usual North Florida 'meh' attitude about storms scraping by. Still paying close attention to how it unfolds

not surprising, as the way Jax is laid out your impact can vary depending if you're more downtown I s'pose.

latest Weather.com article: "Deadly Matthew getting worse; Water rising in Florida; Homes catch fire; nearly a million people in the dark".

God they're tabloidy - most of the title is correct except the first one (the storm is weakening, not getting worse, though effects can be worse in any county that's been hit with hours of tropical wind and rain)

it's really more that some places are just getting it for the first time.

first US death reported from the storm - not sure where it occurred

Jax: here comes the flooding.

Flash Flood Warning for Duval County, Florida
Active for next 3 hours · National Weather Service

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a Flash Flood Warning for: Central Duval County in northeastern Florida.

Until 6:15 PM EDT.
At 12:41 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated Heavy Rain across the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen. Flash Flooding is expected to begin shortly.
Some locations that will experience flooding include: Normandy and Riverside. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area.

I've gotten calls from family about flooding beginning on the ground floor of their home.

there's an amazing photo in this story depicting parenting i mildly disagree with

http://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-matthew-upgraded-category-millions-warned-storm-kill/story?id=42608853

pls forgive content from the free beacon, but, shep smith!

https://youtu.be/y_7WTfoWOMo

very guilty LOLs at that pic

they lifted our curfew already. never lost power here, none of the trees over, worst I had to deal with was my dad's snoring. relieved as all hell.

not surprised on flooding w/ Jacksonville, based on my last few visits there. very exposed.

woman in Volusia the first casualty, went outside to feed some of her animals and struck by a falling tree. :(

https://twitter.com/fierpanda/status/784780986643079168

haha

Rofl

by early saturday near Corpus Christi, TX, H-Harvey could make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane or higher — with winds at least 111 miles per hour . . . and more than 35 inches of rain. . . .

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/us/hurricane-harvey.html?mcubz=3

This one is dangerous because the storm track is for it to make landfall around Corpus Christi, drive inland a ways and slow to a stop, then reverse course and drift slowly up the Texas coast. That is going to cause massive, unreal flooding from Corpus Christi up to Houston. Rain prediction for Victoria (between Corpus and Houston) is something mad like 35 inches over a couple of days.

This is scary. I have never seen a rainfall forecast like this in my entire career.
Texas will be recovering from #Harvey for years. https://t.co/2l4agI5WfC

— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) August 25, 2017

My city is expected to get less than half an inch of rain up here in DFW, it's bizarre. I've never seen a storm come in from the Gulf that was going to stall so hard that it just didn't reach us.

wunderground has the best detailed coverage afaict, e.g.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-harvey-rapidly-intensifies-catastrophic-flooding-likely-texas

also this was published last year:

https://projects.propublica.org/houston/

Houston is the fourth-largest city in the country. It's home to the nation's largest refining and petrochemical complex, where billions of gallons of oil and dangerous chemicals are stored. And it's a sitting duck for the next big hurricane. Learn why Texas isn't ready.

Yeah I would not want to be in Pasadena or Galena Park in Houston right now. Those floodwaters are going to be a toxic gumbo.

The areas of predicted crazy high rainfall totals are now edging into the Austin area and some of the models project the hurricane making it further inland. I laid in a supply of cheese and olives on top of yesterday's grocery story run, am going for apocalypse sushi right now.

"area and some" should be "area as some"

Now a category 4.

this nutcase is periscoping from the eyewall

https://twitter.com/Jeff_Piotrowski

I am worried about this but I need to sleep.

we're poised to get about a foot of water in san antonio this weekend and i have no idea how monday is going to be the first day of school

a friend near McAllen is OK so far, that's all I got

caek's link is bonkers

drove a friend home with the windows down, and keep asking myself if this was hurricane wind, or if this was hurricane rain. according to the radar, it is.

Of course my side of Houston is the one getting all the rain, albeit not in the nightmarish portions that are probably on the way.

This is some batshit storm. Ike was out of here in about a day and a half. Allison was a three-day weekend. This is predicted to last until Thursday or Friday, with the tropical storm reaching us on Wednesday morning.

Down to Cat 2 -- that's good, right?

It doesn't matter if it's going to linger for days

So it hit and did some damage, 200,000 without power, but now come the prolonged heavy rains?

Yeah. Feeder Bands: Hurricane's Asshole Little Brothers.

Getting steady hard rain up here in Austin now. A few big branches down in my neighborhood, one entire tree.

we're poised to get about a foot of water in san antonio this weekend and i have no idea how monday is going to be the first day of school

― seven mambas (m bison), Saturday, August 26, 2017 12:52 AM (fifteen hours ago)

school is not canceled on monday???

Just went through back to back tornado warnings. Rain's really picked up and is heavy now.

It keeps coming... a lot of LCRA rain gauges in the Lower Basin (southeast of Austin) are showing 9-11" of rain in the past 48 hours. This morning they were half that.

Stay safe all in TX

kinda surreal to look at the NWS site and see a Flash Flood Watch in effect for the next 96 hours.

we're poised to get about a foot of water in san antonio this weekend and i have no idea how monday is going to be the first day of school

― seven mambas (m bison), Saturday, August 26, 2017 12:52 AM (fifteen hours ago)

school is not canceled on monday???

― k3vin k., Saturday, August 26, 2017 3:17 PM (six hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

the rain in SA today wasn't ever nightmarish, but it's been steady. you can still drive and stuff. it just depends how much water is on the ground by monday and how much is falling out the sky. if it makes getting to and from school treacherous, they'll cancel.

Feeding bands moving pretty quick right now. Earlier tonight a tornado touched down in the burbs across the street from where my family had a store back in the '80s (and just few miles from where I was living during Allison & Ike).

Friends in Houston have now retreated upstairs as their ground floors are flooding... they saw it coming and moved furniture and valuables up, but damn. That didn't even happen on the Tax Day Floods last year.

I know that dread all too well. Sending thoughts and $$s out to the victims of this one. Glad your friends have an upstairs to retreat to, f. Got my fingers crossed that under/unstaffed FEMA somehow respond better than with Katrina.

Reports on TV that people in certain areas of SouthEast Houston have been driven to their attics by flood water (shades of Katrina).

There are no words. pic.twitter.com/zbrFENCDsA

— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) August 27, 2017

Up next?

These are the highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen in my 10 yrs of Atlantic hurricane forecasting. #Irma is another retiree candidate. pic.twitter.com/e6nMsp1myY

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) August 31, 2017

Fuck me running

uh

No way to sugar coat potential for catastrophic Hurricane #Irma nearing South Florida this weekend. Please monitor & be prepared.

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 4, 2017

getting a wee bit tired of the histrionics from some on my feed (Orlando). obv this is a motherfucker of a storm and we should all be refreshing the latest forecasts (as I do on the minute) but even in recent years w/ forecasts tightening to incredible precision, the average error in miles at the 5-day point is 200+ miles, and we're at like 6-7 days out.

Cent Florida has a tendency to unnecessarily pre-emptively cause gasoline shortages in situations like this by doing what I saw some dickhead doing an hour ago and filling like five humongous canisters of it.

I was already planning on hitting the Carolinas from 9/13 - 9/15, depending on where this ting goes, might either cancel that or might force me to go earlier.

like I don't blame anybody for anxiety after Harvey but it helps to focus on facts ("this is the current forecast") vs unquantifiable hysteria ("this is the WORST CASE SCENARIO", as our local news said on two separate forecasts for the same storm last year).

Strength-wise, we seem to be back to the 2004-2005 era of hurricanes where the warm waters churn out consistent mega-beast storms. I miss the tropics of my youth, small # of storms, few making landfall, all of them Cat 1s. Oi.

Cent Florida has a tendency to unnecessarily pre-emptively cause gasoline shortages in situations like this by doing what I saw some dickhead doing an hour ago and filling like five humongous canisters of it.

― Neanderthal, Monday, September 4, 2017 11:44 AM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

been dealing with this bullshit in south texas for the last few days. gas lines and empty pumps all over the place.

is there gouging as well?

hi!

heh was gonna ask if you're stocked up yet

Uh, no.

ME NEITHA

Too early. The forecast track still puts the middle line skirting Cuba, where I can hope the mountains will sap some of Irma's strength. But we're talking about six days hence.

And, yeah, local coverage has been hysterical. The tone is "Please party safely this Labor Day weekend BUT YOU'RE GONNA DIE NEXT SATURDAY DON'T YOU SEE."

I have one friend who basically does his best "You're all doomed"-guy from F13 impression every year, like he doesn't remember how ridiculous he got last time.

guys, take a few minutes out of your day to be prepared

it's a holiday, come on

I've been living here for 30+ years. I know how this works

I am -- cocktails at 5 p.m.

I have to buy the week's arugula at Publix in a few minutes. I'll grab water and batteries.

Cocktails, arugula, water and batteries should get most folks through most emergencies.

Aperol!

Aperol and/or Campari makes everything better.

I plan to get some bud if things go down.

btw my earlier response wasn't meant to be snippy, more like "I got this, I ain't dyin any time soon" :)

i just want you to be safe! I'm sure you've got it under control tho

is there gouging as well?

― Neanderthal, Monday, September 4, 2017 1:17 PM (two hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

There was a little. Prices in general jumped up about 50 cents a gallon, it seems.

here too with the latter.

one of my friends irresponsibly took to FB to tell all Floridians like, two weeks ago to stock up with canister upon canister of gasoline cos of a rumor she heard saying prices would skyrocket due to Harvey (in a sense they did, but she was for some reason thinking like $4/gallon). really glad nobody listened to her, woulda caused more widespread shortage in the Gulf region and had a longer impact on the price (really learning how dumb a lot of people on my feed are these past few weeks).

Damn, I just saw the current forecast for Irma, and...ouch.

Classic Florida post from my Ike thread:

I really hated the sensationalist local media over in Florida, who almost seemed to want to will Ike over here with their constant ominous warnings.

"Despite all forecasts indicating that Ike is going into the Gulf, OMG U DONT KNOW IT MIGHT TURN BAK ARUOUND AND HIT PENSACOLEAS AN LOOT UR BUILDINGS AND RAPE UR WOMENENE OMG AND UR DAUGHTER IS HAVIN TEH SEX"

― Officer, I Just Shot Seven People (Bo Jackson Overdrive), Thursday, September 11, 2008 11:09 PM (eight years ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

DON: well, yeah

oi that was me in a previous (terrible) incarnation.

been dealing with this bullshit in south texas for the last few days. gas lines and empty pumps all over the place.

― Rob Lowe fresco bar (m bison), Monday, September 4, 2017 1:15 PM (seven hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i was in austin a few days ago and my gf and i ran into gas station pandemonium, it was bizarre

Things look grim for Florida at present

I have a friend training for work in Tampa. We've just been messengering and she was supposed to be heading out to New York for the job on Saturday. She wasn't totally aware of the Irma situation, so I may have just accidentally scared the crap out of her.

the models all tend to agree a hard right is coming, many of them disagree on when. and what the intensity will be (which will depend on whether it interacts w/ land and for how long prior to making continental landfall). interestingly, the local network that was the most OTT in Matthew coverage still is non-committal over Central Florida impact (that's a level of restraint they rarely show).

hoping no ILXOR is impacted. (or anybody really). if it does come, I'm not sticking around for it, though would have to make sure not to evacuate somewhere that is also in its forecasted path (which I had many friends foolishly do in 2004, though they all got lucky in the end)

It looks grim!

It's grim down south.

Cuba makes a huge diff as to where it goes

#Irma is the strongest #hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea & Gulf of Mexico in NHC records https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/P8ebbQJR4k

— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) September 5, 2017

lord

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DI9_UA2XoAIBT5O.jpg

I hope the forecast keeps it farther west before its eventual turn north.

With this hurricane and Harvey, it's amazing how early out the predictions and models anticipated this.

With Harvey, a few days in advance there was "Houston will be getting rain - most are saying 15-20" and then the European model lol is predicting 60"..."

Cane forecasting has made amazing developments even since 04.

Keys evac orders

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/05/keys-emergency-manager-you-must-evacuate-you-cannot-afford-to-stay/

PR really doesnt need this now if not ever. Theyre a couple billion in the hole, Congress sucks and is impotent and trying to treat them like Greece, now theyre going to potentially need hundreds of millions in hurricane relief =|

yeah they just closed our PR office. tensions were high among the population when I last visited and they really need a break. I heard they also don't have great relief infrastructure as a lot of relief employees went to the continental states for better opportunities.

5 o'clock update fairly "wait and see" as usual. the fact that my local networks aren't outright flipping out leads me to believe that like the NHC just said, they really don't have a lot of confidence in days 4 and 5 of the forecast due to how divergent all the models are on those days.

i'm gonna make sure I'm gassed up, but can't exactly plan a "where" to go until the other east coast states are out of the woods, which they currently aren't.

meanwhile, TS Jose forms in the Atlantic and isn't currently forecasted to be a threat to land, but way too early to be confident about that. And Trop Disturbance 13 forms in the Gulf but fortunately looks like it's going to die as a weak depression in Mexico (cos Texas really cannot afford having anything come through).

This is a *fun* time of year let me tell you.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-5th-strongest-atlantic-hurricane-record

Irma poses the most serious hurricane threat to northern Cuba and Florida since at least Hurricane Andrew (1992). Since Sunday night, computer models have agreed that Irma will continue west-northwest before making a fairly sharp right-hand turn in the vicinity of the Florida Straits over the weekend. The level of agreement among models and over time has been quite high for a forecast in the 5-day range. Given this agreement and Irma’s Category 5 strength, residents of Florida must take this hurricane with the utmost seriousness.

I like Dr. Masters, he did a good job during Matthew too

i'm gonna go make a gas run, then go get drunk in a few hours

today i learned about the hebert box(es)

not named after bobby hebert, sadly

Got gas. It was getting testy at the Wawa tho

today i learned that there are wawas in florida

We only got em in like 2012

U drunk yet or what?

10 pm! Tho i do gotta work tomorrow. Boss gave us free reign to cut out if we need to this week tho.

Considering your workplace, that's alright!

Students free as of 11 p.m. tonight through Sunday. We employees gotta report tomorrow anyway.

I'm in Tampa. I'm probably leaving on Thursday if this is still coming my way. I'm thinking of a road trip to Tennessee atm. I don't reside in a flood zone, but fuck if I'm hunkering down in 150+ mph winds.

keep safe, flalxors

For damn sure.

The 5 pm EDT Tuesday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC highlighted a number of Florida locations with chances of seeing hurricane-force winds by Sunday evening, with the highest odds in the Florida Keys and South Florida:

24%: Key West
23%: Marathon
14%: Miami
11%: Naples
8%: West Palm Beach
8%: Ft. Myers
3%: Tampa

I'm in Lecanto. I'm living in an RV in a park, and I'll evacuate if required to, because we really don't have anywhere else to go. (Also, I'm working for a companion agency now despite all of my efforts to avoid going back into health care, and I might be required to keep working through all of this.)

my grandparents are coming up from Florida due to the forced evacuation. yikes!

latest spaghetti models had several more pushing East of FL and missing, or going out to sea and potentially hitting other east coast states. def don't want other states to have to deal w/ it, but somewhat encouraging to see the ones having it just go out to sea (although *far* from a sure bet).

w/ the odds above, it's kinda nuts that Orlando has sold out of water in so many places cos *so far*, we aren't even sure what we're supposed to get if anything. I like preparedness, but lots of people buying way beyond the recommended supplies and leaving lots of others empty-handed (though true, we're supposed to prepare at the BEGINNING of the season).

xpost are they leaving now? hope they have safe travels

no idea. im pretty sure they are leaving asap.

you live in Florida, Neanderthal? Florida is an interesting place but i love it.

good luck weathering the storm!

I'm in Miami, so I'll let him know how we roll. I got lots of black beans, gin, Vienna sausages, and Holger Czukay albums.

Dolphins game already being moved

stay safe u guys <3

xxpost yeah I've been in Cent FL p much my entire life. the hospital I was born at is like less than 8 miles from me.

I will say I am growing really tired of this annual charade, though admittedly it wasn't this bad growing up as the storms were rather weak and usually Cat 1s and you maybe only had to worry about one to two close calls a year.

2004 kinda rewired our brains, my project lead lost her home that year so she's a bit antsy.

thanks VG.

stay safe Alfred! hopefully you'll just get a hooky day to drink away and nothing worse.

Boozed up

my grandparents are coming up from Florida due to the forced evacuation. yikes!

^^ Work on this screenplay while waiting out the storm.

Drinking not helping. Goin to sleep

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204937_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

nerveracking. though the Euro and G4S models are very much divergent still, with G4S starting to show more of an eastern shift, some of them saying it will miss FL and go into the Atlantic. Euro still more westerly.

Home Depot employee in Cent Florida attacked last night - hurricanes make so many people here show their asses.

I take minor ridiculous comfort in the slight downgrade in intensity.

We're already off work. Four days of waiting! I got gas no problem yesterday morning, but with four days until the storm this means I still have to some driving...when gas stations are out of petrol.

might be worth topping off if you can after driving

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJCue6tXoAA7JSa.jpg:small

It's Just Capitalism!®

some asshole wrote the same article in 2004 when we were getting hit with one of three hurricanes.

cos y'know, a tank of gas basically depleting a family of 4's bank account is worth it after all!

hell of an eastward shift in last forecast

Fake news?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/06/hurricane-irma-just-slammed-into-trumps-caribbean-estate-and-is-headed-toward-his-florida-properties

ffs wapo

I suspect something has to give soon with the computer models and the variance has to start decreasing. that could mean going back to a more westerly track again, or pushing further east.

almost all of the GFS models have it missing FL now, but Euro still thinks FL is going to get gobsmacked.

I suspect we're still going to be frustratingly unclear even at bedtime tonight.

I'm going to leave Tampa tomorrow afternoon, but I'm hoping Irma continues out into the Atlantic. I have no clue how clogged I-75 is or will be tomorrow. I have a full tank, but there's that fear that there won't be any gas from Tampa up through northern Florida.

If you go to a shelter for #Irma and you have a warrant, we'll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail https://t.co/Qj5GX9XQBi

— Polk County Sheriff (@PolkCoSheriff) September 6, 2017

tweets vmic *sigh*

I-75 supposedly is less congested now but will likely pick up again soon.

yeah the gas fear is why I filled up

The new track encourages me.

I'm supposed to be in Durham next week. just give them the all clear and I'll extend my AirBNB by two days and take my work laptop with me.

Interesting specifics on the spaghetti models.

that dude is right, a lot of the 'models' on those plots are garbage and should really just focus on the NHC track, global forecasts and the ensembles.

not surprised Nate Silver doesn't get meteorology

state of emergency declared in south carolina

not sure i get the objections to the spaghetti models -- i guess they could be weighted differently

since they all appear on the map as a bunch of lines, you tend to give each one equal weight when really a lot of them are either outdated, not meant to considered in isolation, or useless in some other way.

yeah seems analogous to combining polls, not sure why properly weighting each one based on the model's past performance, how long ago the forecast was made, etc wouldnt be a reasonable strategy

believe me, not good

Takeoff! An absolutely amazing job here by @Delta forecasters, dispatchers, flight and ground crews. Full flight back up to JFK.#Irma pic.twitter.com/sSulqA8g7t

— Jason Rabinowitz (@AirlineFlyer) September 6, 2017

guy is tracking planes that were forced to turn around, etc., and was very excited by this delta flight that snuck into san juan and back out in under an hour

mother of christ

yeah seems analogous to combining polls, not sure why properly weighting each one based on the model's past performance, how long ago the forecast was made, etc wouldnt be a reasonable strategy

it is reasonable, that is how you get the 3 and 5 day tracks the NHC provides for the storms. a layperson can't really do it though. people still want to see those maps with the spaghetti plots because in the face of a storm like that you want more information, more certainty, reassurance. but it leads people to ignore meteorologists and rely on their own predictions which, for the most part, are corrupted by all kinds of (understandable) biases. like wishing the storm would not land on top of them. part of meteorology or any scientific practice is having a process that minimizes those biases to give you a shot of actually knowing what is happening.

i'd probably rather wait out the hurricane than fly on that plane tbqf

xxxxpost I think dude was trying to prevent people from trying to be amateur meteorologists, which is fair. even when I read those things I like to see what the professionals have to say about it.

the hysteria in Central Florida is insane right now. Harvey definitely spooked everybody, as has the size of this storm. Rationality is kind of going by the wayside. Our local newscasters, who are usually sensationalist as hell, have been positively restrained, but it has made little difference.

also lots of BAD info circulating

and Central Florida, among all locations in the United States, is where I'd want to be in a hurricane -- specifically Disney World. Several friends over the years have ridden out Hurricanes Charley, Ivan, Frances, and Mathew and were immensely impressed with Disney's professionalism: constant alerts on in-room telephones, Disney movies running continuously, no power outages, etc

exactly.

heart palps have started for me due to the stress of it all (not unusual cos I have anxiety). on the plus side it's inspired me to work out more lol

You know Branson is even safer

https://twitter.com/search?q=euro%20model&src=tyah

Er, meant to say

Update: Latest (12Z) Euro model continuing to show #Irma making a direct hit landfall in South Florida. pic.twitter.com/CKZBpHb2ym

— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) September 6, 2017

*shrug*

this cone is gonna stay really wide until at least tomorrow or Friday

*idly contemplates 'ilx posts taken out of context' thread*

jesus, this thread

None of the 1,600 Barbuda residents have been heard from in 12 hours, as Irma hit directly. PM about to heli to assess situation

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

PM of Antigua and Barbuda is live on national broadcaster. He just arrived in Barbuda by heli. "It is totally destroyed. 90% at least"

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

PM just keeps repeating 'totally demolished" over and over. "This is a national disaster". Line is breaking up. So distressing

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

Hosts are asking about fatalities. PM sounds like he's saying 'over 1,000'. The entire population of Barbuda is only 1,600

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

Again, the PM gave a number of 1,000 in response to a Q on fatalities. But line was really sketchy, PM emotional. Very hard to tell

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes) September 6, 2017

It's really bizarre.. I've been trying to get in touch with some friends on St Martin. And 80,000 Dutch/French island. It's been about 6 or 7 hours since anyone had contact with the island at all. Everything's down. No correspondents getting through, no footage, phone's dead. There's nothing. Ghost island.

And 80,000 island

watched some webcams on USVI st john's, was very ominous to have them go dark

jfc

Antigua statement was much more optimistic:

https://antiguachronicle.net/statement-by-prime-minister-gaston-browne-on-the-passage-of-hurricane-irma/

Shocking: Power utility company in Puerto Rico estimates Island will be without electricity for "4 to 6 months." https://t.co/OX7RrTWugT

— Claude Brodesser (@ClaudeBrodesser) September 6, 2017

Big, misleading difference between "will be without power" and "could be without power." Hoping for the best here.

so those barbuda tweets were just nonsense or ...

that pm statement appears to predate him flying to the island on a helicopter to survey the destruction. but communications are shit right now...

we got two more...

http://abc13.com/weather/hurricanes-jose-katia-form-within-minutes/2384072/

deep dive on european model vs the others

https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/heres-what-the-worlds-most-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/

Confession: I had never heard of Barbuda.

me neither

I thought meteorologists were mispronouncing Barbados.

I've never heard it without "Antigua and" in front

i figured Mike Love made it up for "Kokomo"

that is crazy about PR yikes

I'm confused, has it actually hit Puerto Rico yet? No, right?

more or less atop it -- slightly north -- right now

So it's the rain and sustained 50-70 mph winds? It could have been a lot worse, but I guess we'll see how bad it still is.

def could have been worse but their power issue goes beyond how hard the storm is and more to do with manpower. I think my company is shitting itself now given one of our major offices is there.

and one of the other ones was ...just outside Houston, so second interruption in two weeks

so basically NHC just said there were several models that reflected an eastern shift but this time until they're sure they're not outliers, they're not adjusting the track much. smart move I think. way too many dummies read too much into the 11 am easterly shift.

My local weather boys have been as circumspect as they've been since Sunday.

someone must have fed mine tranquilizers because this is the most restrained they've been since...ever.

they must have taken a beating for the way they were last year.

i'm probably going to bed now cos my brain is tired of thinking of this shit

Taken a beating for being alarmist?

yeah, people were pretty furious at the local networks last year for how OTT they got, I can't imagine I was the only one who wrote them about it.

course, the moment this track gets consensus, they might all start screaming "BRING OUT YOUR DEAD"

sleep well!

These are the first images from Barbuda after Hurricane #Irma's direct hit earlier today -- the strongest landfall in Atlantic history. pic.twitter.com/LTM2ql7SFf

— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) September 7, 2017

further FL evacs

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-sb-hurricane-irma-broward-wednesday-20170906-story.html

smart move. precisely why I'm staying put at the moment - a) forecast looks like something O-town can ride out, b) don't want to get on the road and clog it up for people that are told they *have* to get out.

one of my friends just went to DC and I'm mega jealous. airfare always cheap there, shoulda thought of that.

I'm getting so little work done this week.

also those pics of Barbuda are NUTS. whole island is just fucked.

hoping we get an east jog and South Florida can be spared the worst.

If the forecast cone keeps inching east, we might.

a lot of the models still showing that, NHC trying to be wise and not jump the gun so people can at least be safe.

I had a ticket to Orphaned Land in TAmpa tonight. no way in Hell I am going. and hasn't been cancelled. lol...

I'm getting so little work done this week.

― Neanderthal, Thursday, September 7, 2017 1:02 PM (one hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

I've been a terrible employee this week. I'm spending the majority of my working day coordinating with friends and family, making sure they have a plan and supplies. Apparently I'm terrible at focusing at work at times of stress. I need to update my resume to reflect my newfound skill.

I know I said upthread that I'm leaving, but everyone I know here in Tampa are hunkering down. I would feel shitty hogging gas for those who need to get out so I'm staying put and hoping the fucker dies out in the ocean somewhere.

two of my cousins live on st. john, nobody's heard from them since yesterday morning

oh no

Jose is following right in Irma's path, it's crazy