a thread about the civil unrest in egypt (& elsewhere in 'the region' if necessary)

http://i.imgur.com/rcPGl.jpg

http://www.artandeducation.net/show_images/1296080553image_web_full.jpg

Tunisian engineering students spell the Arabic words "tunus hurra" - free Tunisia - in silent protest.

http://assets.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/science/Page%2012.jpg

"5. A new government composed of people outside the military who care about the people of Israel"

um what? is that a typo?

from here

heard the next young humma song touches on this

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/27/egypt-riot-security-force-action

pretty incredible audio taken by a british journalist picked up by security forces and beaten

"5. A new government composed of people outside the military who care about the people of Israel"

um what? is that a typo?

― ex-heroin addict tricycle (Shakey Mo Collier), Thursday, January 27, 2011 7:55 PM (30 seconds ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

haha yeah i didnt quite get that one either

good coverage from 'gordon reynolds' at the awl

http://www.theawl.com/tag/egypt

david shapiro should cover the egypt uprisings

an egyptian army officer shouted at me and told me to get out of the way and then he told me i should just go back to america instead of coming to egypt so i told him that i was in the press and he swung a club at me and hit me in the head. i fell down and saw stars not the kind of stars like the band stars or the ones in the sky at night but stars swirling around my head not quite like in a bugs bunny cartoon but not unlike them either which surprised me. i was dragged into a truck and i was thrown in the back where it smelled and the truck started moving and i heard people whispering all around me and i sat up and went into the corner and started crying thinking about going back to new york where it was safe and i would be safe.

i heard that audio of the british journalist, it sounds like the last report from a doomed man based on where they're headed and the uncertainty of it all, i feel like it's a miracle he was able to get that audio out.

damn good
xpost

For a second i thought it was the PRR guy lol

Dumb question, but what do these protestors want from a more democratic government that their current despots aren't giving them? It's interesting that these aren't Islamist outbursts - we know what they want. But what's setting this off? Simple long simmering frustration with restricted freedoms? Human rights violations? Trash not getting picked up on time? I've followed this a bit, but must have missed any demand beyond new leadership.

(Related: could this finally be the manifestation of the Arab "youth bomb" that people have been warning about for years, the huge in number under 25 demo becoming politically aware?)

What we're seeing is something that would have been a lot different had the past ten years not turned out the way they did.

What do you mean? That these governments are weaker for our interference, or that the protestors more emboldened?

Also, can we discount the earlier unrest in Iran as a catalyst?

Or do you mean that the people are finally sick of having their despots propped up by the American government, whose presence in the region has never been welcome, either directly or by proxy?

And if this is an extension of anti-American sentiment, does that mean these protestors want governments that are even more anti-American (and anti-Israel)? Because, boy.

Dumb question, but what do these protestors want from a more democratic government that their current despots aren't giving them? It's interesting that these aren't Islamist outbursts - we know what they want. But what's setting this off? Simple long simmering frustration with restricted freedoms? Human rights violations? Trash not getting picked up on time? I've followed this a bit, but must have missed any demand beyond new leadership.

(Related: could this finally be the manifestation of the Arab "youth bomb" that people have been warning about for years, the huge in number under 25 demo becoming politically aware?)

― Josh in Chicago, Thursday, January 27, 2011 9:57 PM (42 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

i think there are probably plenty of people and groups w/in the protestors who have tons of specific demands or hopes but as a whole the thing that seems to unite them is a desire for an actually democratic government. one thing that you keep hearing in man-or-woman-on-the-street interviews is "no one should be president for more than 10 years"

the proximate cause seems to be the so-far successful mass uprising in tunisia, showing that "it can be done" i guess. but theres been 30 years of "state of emergency" martial law in egypt--plus many ppl seem to be rallying around this guy khaled said, who was beaten to death last year by police when he asked for a warrant after they tried to search. i think someone may have self-immolated in an imitation of the guy in tunisia, too.

apparently shit is popping off in yemen now too

good post about elbaradei:

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/01/nuke-watchdog-wants-to-lead-egypt-revolt-no-really/

Times implies that the addition of the Muslim Brotherhood in the mix may change the dynamic. If I were [insert despot here], I would love for the extremists to get into the mix.

I still want to know what they'd want from a potential democratically elected government. Better ties with the US? Fewer ties to the US? In the case of Egypt, worse ties with Israel? A desire for expanded personal freedoms, or just the freedom to choose their oppressor?

The times lead does begin "Demonstrators in Egypt have protested against rising prices and stagnant incomes, for greater freedom and against police brutality," so maybe it is just a general sense of powerlessness. But the solution to those particular problems seems to be a more liberal democracy, which I can't see happening without clashing with the hardliners.

The tinderbox seems to be Jobs and prices Tunisia and Egypt both have youth unemployment in the 30-40% range. That's just the spark, though, the fuel is many things and seems to be different things for different people; (suppression of religion, free speech, petty bureaucratic oppression, the price of bread etc. etc.)

They've shut off the internet throughout the whole of Egypt, with the exception of the one the Egyptian Stock Exchange is on.

I read the other day someone quite vehement that the Muslim Brotherhood aren't extremists. Wiki says the organization is committed to non-violent reform but their goals are absolute Islamist life and law. What are the odds on what they'll do if/when they get a say in what happens next?

The impression I get from my half egyptian colleague is the the MB are a pretty broad based organisation from hardline to very moderate. There strength to date has been drawn from the fact that they are the only focal point for opposition to the government. That said the secular opposition is starting from scratch and the MB have the organisation and structure to fill any power vacuum that emerges (unlike Tunisia where the Islamic opposition is much weaker).

And if this is an extension of anti-American sentiment, does that mean these protestors want governments that are even more anti-American (and anti-Israel)?

Mubarak is not anti-American. Neither was Ben-Ali in Tunisia. And whatever yap Mubarak might come out with in public, his government colluded with Israel in such things as maintaining the siege of Gaza.

But I think you are right, there is more to this than just anti-Americanism, and the Iranian protests are probably a bit of a catalyst. Back then there was talk about how quiescent Arabs were towards their own thuggish dictators, but now belatedly they are springing into action.

My sense at this stage is that the Arab world is enjoying a 1989 moment. It will be interesting to see whether this spreads to the monarchies, and indeed to Syria, the one definitively not pro-Western Arab state.

Naipaul's travelogue in the immediate aftermath of the Iranian revolution is fascinating - at that stage it wasn't clear what sort it was - socialist or Islamic, and what kind of islamists they were. That's why I'm very worried to see the mb turning up.

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2011/1/28/1296219004898/Locals-pray-in-the-street-009.jpg

I still want to know what they'd want from a potential democratically elected government. Better ties with the US? Fewer ties to the US? In the case of Egypt, worse ties with Israel? A desire for expanded personal freedoms, or just the freedom to choose their oppressor?

The times lead does begin "Demonstrators in Egypt have protested against rising prices and stagnant incomes, for greater freedom and against police brutality," so maybe it is just a general sense of powerlessness. But the solution to those particular problems seems to be a more liberal democracy, which I can't see happening without clashing with the hardliners.

― Josh in Chicago, Friday, January 28, 2011 7:45 AM (2 hours ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

my guess is that the protestors are coming from a wide enough swath of society that youd get "yes" answers to all of those things! its not exactly a politically organized uprising (at this point)

i mean this is what that protest pamphlet that the atlantic translated has, not that its necessarily more representative of the protestors than anyhting else:

http://assets.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/science/Page%202_rev.jpg

and my understanding of the muslim brotherhood is similar to what ed is saying. i think itd be possible (though i have no idea how likely) for a muslim brotherhood-majority gov't to be more democratic and free than a mubarak military state.

ive also read that the brotherhood wouldnt draw a wide-enough base of support from the population to BE the majority, and a kind of coalition with a secular organization is more likely to be regarded as a genuine alternative to mubarak in a practical sense.

but! ismael (and i guess naipaul) is right. iran could have gone in a lot of different directions--and it had a large cosmopolitan/secular population, not to mention a large and i believe fairly well-organized (?) communist party. (plus figures like ali shariati who threaded a needle somewhere between secular and hard-line)

re: Naipaul. Are you talking about 'Among the believers'?

Khomeini played the Communists very well but Iran could easily have gone a different direction.

i asume thats what ismael meant? i dont know i really dislike naipaul so

I still want to know what they'd want from a potential democratically elected government.

jobs

or what ed said

max where is your first image from? any info?

http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/f9a2m/a_picture_i_took_yesterday_in_tahrir_square_cairo/

The problem with all entrenched regimes is that they become not only corrupt but very visibly so, hence the revolt against Ben Ali and clan in Tunisia. Today would have been Khaled Said's 29th birthday. He was beaten to death last summer for distributing video of police officers splitting up drugs amongst themselves that they had just confiscated. A photo of his smashed head in the morgue then quickly made the rounds. Egyptians are mindful that anti-Muslim Brotherhood, anti-islamist efforts by the regime have ended up leaving us with people like al-Zawahiri.

I have no idea about their sincerity but the Muslim Brotherhood has officially eschewed violence with few exceptions and apart from not being the regime, they also have a certain status in Egypt from their benevolent works, notably after the 1992 Cairo earthquake.

It seems to be that lots of these Islamic groups eschew violence officially, but have no problem with it as a means to an end. It's hard to imagine a peaceful strict, hardline Muslim government, but hey, stranger things have happened.

Another question: how are these despots different than those de facto despots in Russia? The complaints these protestors have don't seem that different from what I imagine the average Russian would say, were they allowed to openly say it. And god knows, the Russian government is every bit as brazen as these middle eastern governments.

But more popular amongst Russians me thinks, at least for the moment.

Just on the Muslim Brothers and elections and so on - the feeling in the academic literature is that Arab world Islamists win pluralities but not majorities in elections. So if post-transition elections in Egypt are run by proportional representation then we are not going to be looking at their having total power.

gunfire & explosions on the al jazeera live feed - http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

whats happening are the mummies attacking

But what's setting this off?

I heard the desire for a minimum wage is a big desire. Also 30 years under the same President is hardly a democratic regime, regardless of how much US officials kiss his ass.

these pictures are incredible - http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/gallery/2011/jan/28/egypt-protests-cairo

this is an interesting piece about how tunisia, egypt and yemen are not the same - http://www.chapatimystery.com/archives/homistan/days_of_anger.html - i'm not sure if i buy the denial of any link between them, but then i'm not the expert here...

When do the neocons swoop in and start taking credit for all this

Isn't there a strain of thinking that in these relatively diverse, relatively moderate countries, a Islamist government would spark a popular backlash when forced to actually govern? Turkey has managed a democratic coalition of hardliners and moderates, hasn't it?

Slightly tangential but moving:

http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/parting-glance-lucas-mebrouk-dolega-32/

http://renesys.com/blog/

This whole thing has had me thinking about Algeria in 1991. I do hope it all ends better.

The complaints these protestors have don't seem that different from what I imagine the average Russian would say, were they allowed to openly say it.

the average russian thinks putin's awesome

think we're getting WAY ahead of ourselves with the speculation about what various post-despot govt's would look like in the Arab world

each of these states currently in flux (Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt) are ultimately at the mercy of their respective militaries and which way they swing (Yemen's trickier because the populace is so well armed, a civil war is more likely. But in Egypt it's gonna come down to whether or not the army + police are willing to engage in mass slaughter/repression)

Yes, Among The Believers. Should've clarified that I was talking about 79 not 09.

Also, there will be a struggle within the mb as to the direction it will take - being an organisation defined by its islamism, I would expect the more extreme elements to prevail, simply because if they do manage to co-opt mass support that's not going to be support for liberal democracy. Why would it be? People with that as a priority will be looking elsewhere.

x-post Really? I bet they can muster a percentage of malcontents equal to that of Egypt. But then, Russia seems to be going through a transitional phase.

The question, then, is whether Egypt et al. are willing to go the full crackdown, and then if they do, whether they can survive the reaction. Unlike the relatively isolated and very hardline Iran, Egypt doesn't appear to have to same degree of control over, say, outside influences, let alone its own people.

I would be extremely skeptical of any US news source portraying these protesters as anti-American and/or Muslim extremists. Clearly the demands are all pretty in line with democratic ideals and the kind of shit the US should be publicly rooting for.

I was in Egypt in 2006 or so on a school trip and had plenty of first-hand experience with the people, tho yeah as an American tourist in the more populated areas. Egypt is overwhelmingly Muslim, and this was smack in the middle of the Iraq War and Bush's 2nd term, and everyone I talked to had nothing but good things to say about America and Americans, even in the midst of all that. The most extreme they got was saying "We love America, we love Americans, we just don't like Bush". Now this probably has a lot to do with the fact that tourism is THE business in Egypt, and why on Earth would you badmouth someone you were trying to sell trinkets to.

Nonetheless, yes there were extremists out in the desert and stories of anti-American sentiments in the rural areas, but the vast, vast majority of people in Cairo and Luxor and Aswan were all very friendly and very nice.

No way is foreign policy a motivating factor here in the slightest. We are just bystanders here and should mostly bystand for fear of contaminating whatever good things might emerge.

They're not directly anti-American, but isn't one complaint that Mubarak is too pro American? And certainly too pro-Israel? (Which can be read as pro-American?)

x-post The vast majority of people everywhere are very friendly and nice.

Indeed, yes. Supporting the coup that blocked the elections there was one of the West's great mistakes.

JiC - I think, yes, that people do reckon that if the Islamists had to govern then people would become disenchanted with them. Or maybe they would be really good at governing and everyone would love them. Or whatever.

I think Ergodan is not governing as part of a coalition, but I am open to correction on this.

I don't really think that Egypt's position wrt the US is really an issue here compared to domestic corruption, poverty, massive inequality etc.

Al Jazeera live feed is amazing btw

my last post was an XPost to something.

x-post Really? I bet they can muster a percentage of malcontents equal to that of Egypt. But then, Russia seems to be going through a transitional phase.

putin's approval rating was higher than any leader on the planet. medvedev's is lower, but most russians know putin's in charge anyway.

obv there are plenty of malcontents in russia! but no the country as a whole really, really likes him. i kind of wrote about why here (putin doesn't actually get mentioned haha, but after crushing the oligarchs and all the tough talk to chechan/islamic terrorists, his status is a function of the same phenom.)

sorry total thread derail. i am actually ashamed of how little i know about the egypt/yemen/everywhereelse situation, even though i've been trying to follow it.

AKP/ergodan holds a majority in turkey, yes, but theyre hardly hardliners.

Police firing tear gas into a crowd while they're prostrate for prayers seems like a stupid move. (via aljazeera feed)

army opening fire

not good

oh shit

No way is foreign policy a motivating factor here in the slightest. We are just bystanders here and should mostly bystand for fear of contaminating whatever good things might emerge.

― Ismael Klata, Friday, January 28, 2011 6:52 PM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark

OTFM

Muslim Brotherhood, Baradei under house arrest

would guess that Mubarak's speech is gonna be of the "I am not going to step down, return to your homes, protestors will be shot"

variety

Clinton calling for Mubarak to restrain security forces and for protestors to be peaceful, respect freedom of information/expression. (real message: US not gonna save ya Mubarak)

i wouldn't be so sure. if mubarak survives, well, here we are

right

but he'll have to figure out how to survive on his own

Police firing tear gas into a crowd while they're prostrate for prayers seems like a stupid move. (via aljazeera feed)

Wow that's really fucking dumb. That's the sort of image that goes right round the world.

yeah that's already all over my facebook wall.

When do the neocons swoop in and start taking credit for all this

― strongly recommend. unless you're a bitch (mayor jingleberries), Friday, January 28, 2011 10:41 AM (31 minutes ago) Bookmark

they already have:

http://greatsatansgirlfriend.blogspot.com/2011/01/aflame.html

military armored personnel carriers in Alexandria

Police firing tear gas into a crowd while they're prostrate for prayers seems like a stupid move. (via aljazeera feed)

I think that was just previously fired tear gas floating around...? there was a pretty distinct break in gunfire/noise while the prayers were going on and then as soon as they were over everything erupted again

not surprised about the neocons lol

what i saw/heard was that the police fired tear gas canisters into the prostrate protestors just before prayers ended, whereupon one of the protestors just threw them back at the police...?

Mubarak will no doubt barter with the State Department about getting the Ferdinand Marcos treatment.

AP saying the foreign ministry is occupied/under attack

dudes not to sound too bilderbergy here or anything, but the state department talk about supporting the rights of the egyptian people and the hopes and dreams of the protestors is crafted for your ears, not mubarak's

Which is why the statements pale beside the back channel shit that's no doubt going on.

The 2010 legislative elections vote-rigging has hurt the NDP and Mubarak's legitimacy pretty badly.

eh, we'll see

xp

It looks to me as if Clinton is angling for a negotiated departure by Mubarak, accompanied by an increase in political freedom. I think the US is aiming to structure the solution in a way that would protect its key interests: the peace treaty with Israel, the Suez canal, and co-operation against terrorism.

from the graun

that makes sense

Beeb reporting protestors are trying to break into the main TV and radio building

police van torched

this is terrifying

woman on al-jazeera reporting 3 deaths, incl 14 year old boy

I was in Cairo in 2007 and all I can think right now is that, added to the pollution they always have, with fires now raging and tear gas all over the place, the air must be really awful.

protesters trying to swarm ministry of foreign affairs, apparently

:)

huh Al Jazeera also reporting that protesters have been welcoming of the military in various places - which is a good sign, I think. if the protesters get the military on their side, Mubarak is fucked.

The Egyptian military, famously, haven't fired on the people in generations.

well looks like they're moving in to secure the Foreign Ministry, Ministry of Information, etc so we'll see how this goes

Sky pointing out that the US spends $1.3bn a year on the egyptian military. They can't fire on the people, that ought to mean.

Pretty sure Egypt is the biggest if not second biggest recipient of US foreign aid

(it's second)

Ah yes second biggest. Viva Israel.

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-egypts-day-of-reckoning-2196751.html

hillary right now tellin egypt to TURN THAT INTERNET BACK ON

TEAR THAT FIREWALL DOWN, MR MUBARAK

^^ this will be a headline soon if it isnt yet

haha yes that more what i was reaching for

egypt is gone off the net because of u

de nile of service

interviews on al jazeera seem to pretty much exemplify the state department position here: talking about how we're still besties with mubarak but making really vague remarks about how "our principles" require respect and support for the protesters, and refusing to reconcile or even acknowledge the contradiction while waiting out the crisis to see whom we have to negotiate with at the end.

reporters also keep saying things about the protesters in cairo and suez "welcoming" the military? and shaking hands in the streets? which seems like a really huge deal but which i can't get any details about.

reports are saying tens of thousands of protesters in egypt - in a city the size of cairo tens of thousands is not that big - def needs to grow to be effective

de nile of service

― maurice "baby doc" chevalier (brownie), Friday, January 28, 2011 1:18 PM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

fuckin nailed it

asp.net

Need to leave Mubarak a ladder to climb down xp, he can't be left with ordering fire as his only option. It might look duplicitous but it might work - trying to please a domestic audience shouldn't be a priority here.

Transition also needed or move up the September Presidential elections

curfew being totally ignored, NDP headquarters in cairo apparently firmly occupied by protesters. "no sign of police" in suez--just the army, whom the protesters are cheering. (in cairo they're being more aggressive with the army, at least outside the NDP building.)

Mubarak taking his time with the speech-writing eh

you can't rush inspiration

Polishing his prose with Nile water.

Obama doubtlessly making FDR's "our SOB" remaark about Mubarak

maybe a looter got his pen.

NDP headquarters in cairo apparently firmly occupied by protesters.

I have read that it was almost entirely burned down.

Best coverage on this is here: http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

live stream here: http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

xp -- it was! they are occupying the husk.

Unfortunately, I can't watch that AJE stream at work.

good info: http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Apparently Syria is suspending Internet service as well.

my cousin who works for the state dept. just got assigned to egypt and moved there a couple weeks ago

exciting first day otj

I sent her an email saying whats up hows egypt

"I read a thread about it"

maybe someday she'll have enough internet to read that email

lol

al jaz reporting protesters finding ammunition that says "made in the usa" on it

I've never understood why anyone would stamp "made in ___" on a weapon. so stupid.

I remember some unedited footage aired on CNN a day or two after 9/11 from Afghanistan, and the presumably Taliban rebels were doing the same, holding up rocket launchers for the camera and showing the U.S. manufacturer info. If I remember right, it wasn't "Made in U.S.A." as much as the company name and city/state.

made in tulsa oklahoma whatever the fuck that is alalalalalalalala

born in the usa

designed by apple in california

watching Gibbs try to avoid saying that the US gov't continues to stand by Mubarak was relatively lolworthy.

"Does the administration continue to support Mubarak?"

"We're monitoring a fluid situation."

I read that as "we're monitoring a fuiud situation"

youth have formed a human chain around the national museum

ruling party hq "burnt down"

BBC reporter heavily beaten - he says there are many plainclothes police and they are "very very violent"

http://twitter.com/HosniMobarak

youth have formed a human chain around the national museum

yeah was so heartened when i saw this

also

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/About/General/2011/1/28/1296235341346/An-Egyptian-anti-governme-007.jpg

An Egyptian anti-government activist kisses a riot police officer following clashes in Cairo. Photograph: Lefteris Pitarakis/AP

and now from bizarro world:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/258263/what-next-after-mubarak-michael-rubin

comments especially...

what will the army do, is the question, I guess

nro commenters standard line on anything happening in the middle east: IRAN IS BEHIND IT

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/258263/what-next-after-mubarak-michael-rubin

I couldn't finish this - every single sentence had something that was just flat-out incorrect in it.

NYT: My colleague Katrin Bennhold writes from Davos to point out that a senior Saudi official, Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former director of Saudi Arabia's intelligence services and ambassador to the United States, was asked if a wave of democracy across the Middle East might be even more destabilizing than a nuclear Iran he had been warning against. He replied: "I don't know -- in Saudi Arabia we have neither nuclear weapons nor democracy."

lol

Reagan's Soldier

01/28/11 11:49

Link

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Iran is behind these protests. This is a clear attempt to bring an Islamist government to power in Egypt. The threat to America is dire. The threat to Israel is mortal.

America should launch airstrikes against the protesters. If Mubarak falls, and the new government includes any Muslims, we should launch a preemptive strike before the new government can hurt Israel.

what will the army do, is the question, I guess

― progressive cuts (Tracer Hand), Friday, January 28, 2011 4:00 PM (6 minutes ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

that is the question protestors pose

oh man plz don't post any more comments my brain will explode

yeah seriosuly

al jaz reporting protesters finding ammunition that says "made in the usa" on it

― lextasy refix (lex pretend), Friday, January 28, 2011 3:08 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark

did anyone else think 'hey, we still make stuff!'

watching protestors line the streets and cheer on the incoming military tanks is fucking breathtaking

dying @ that... egyptian govt made up entirely of copts, that would work well

at the thing goole posted i mean

xxxp guns & ammo we're still good at. priorities, etc

albert jazeera

surprised no one's mentioned this yet

can the pyramids be burned? they're made of stone iirc - maybe they can flip them over

Thanks, goole, I had just come to post that.

I went on a rather nice tour in Egypt in 2007 and our lovely tour guide, a Coptic lady from Cairo, had nothing but good things to say about Mubarak. I grokked it all as completely insincere and let her be, but it was dispiriting to see such a nice lady who was obviously so enamored of her country's heritage have to spout a bunch of rubbish wrt a regime she obviously feared was paying attention to what she said.

Reports of Copts on the protest lines surrounding/protecting Muslims from the riot police while they take time to pray without leaving the protests.

In the midst of a really fucked up world, sometimes I'm just blown away by the sheer humanity present around us.

So what's with the latest rumors about Mubarak et al flying out?

Guy from muslim brotherhood on the bbc saying he had inside news that his health had suddenly gone downhill, hmmm.

Also random egyption protester on the bbc with the quality dad joke: "Can I just say, with respect to Joe Biden saying that Mubarak is not a dictator, I think if you were to look in a dictionary under the word 'dictator' you would see a picture of Mubarak."

me spell egyptian well one day

When a man sporting a long beard and a white robe began chanting an Islamist slogan, he was grabbed and shaken by another protester telling him to keep the slogans patriotic and not religious.

Mubarak speaking

like, later, right?

mubarak is on now xp

. Riot police appear to have withdrawn from the streets of Cairo and Alexandria after several hours of confrontation with protesters, and in their place the Egyptian Army has taken up presence, guarding government buildings.

this doesn't bode well for the usa/egypt friendly on the 9th

Egypt should be able to beat us anyway.

looks like he's going to cling to power by ceding some nebulous "reforms"

mubarak has no intention of going anywhere any time soon

yup

oh shit he just said he is stepping down

wait what did he just say?

as of TOMORROW, will designate interim gov't

whoah

!!!

whoa wtf this speech took a drastic turn

oh my god

ooh

"I have ordered the government to step down, and I will name a new government tomorrow"

is he just like dissolving parliament?

he's staying put it looks like

He's not stepping down, he's just changing the government

twitter responses saying otherwise -- mubarak asked the gov't to step down, whatever that means.

xps lol

oh shit he just said he is stepping down

he said he'd ordered the government to step down, and he'd name a new one tomorrow, but he himself isn't going anywhere!

yeah i was listening to a translation obv but i didn't hear him explicitly say he was leaving office?

xps yeah

not a tenable position surely

kinda hard to believe he's almost 83 yrs old

What channel are you watching (if seeing this in the UK)?

i know yall hate me that's why i'm firing my staff

al-jazeera

reporter saying (obviously) that this won't be enough for the protesters, power is concentrated in the hands of the president anyway

so he's sacking his entire cabinet

wonder if he's playing for time to figure out some way to step aside without being killed/tried for crimes/imprisoned/whatever

thanks xp - don't have it, will keep getting my news from ilx

ismael - http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

sorry for bungling the translation guys

yes use lex's link

aljazeera is crashing my shit, so there's also http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698

thanks lex etc

has anyone made the "mubarak in de nile" joke yet?

Al Jazeera English: Live Stream http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

sorry for bungling the translation guys

― ex-heroin addict tricycle (Shakey Mo Collier), Friday, January 28, 2011 5:33 PM (21 seconds ago)

haha it's okay, i was sort of tuning him out because it seemed like he wasn't saying much, then all of the sudden i heard "new government tomorrow" and read what you said

I'm sure he could find refuge somewhere, Saudi at least. If he does attempt this legalistic gambit, (and assuming he digs in and keeps hold of power - something I'm very sceptical about) will he run for re-election in September?

Ismael:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698
live coverage there

more coverage here > http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

has anyone made the "mubarak in de nile" joke yet?

More like 'who hasn't'

Yes, upthread. (re De Nile joke)

I wasn't really clear to me what "the government" meant in the context of the speech

xp

Got it now thanks xp - every time he looks up I expect to see that it's Berlusconi

Got it now thanks

The de Nile joke?

yeah is he dissolving parliament or just replacing his cabinet?

White House's maneuvering here is interesting - all the noise from the State Dept makes it seem like they'd all be more than happy to see Mubarak go, they're just worried about giving him an exit strategy that will preserve US interests

VVV

all the noise from the State Dept makes it seem like they'd all be more than happy to see Mubarak go

on that note, i'm not really sure what to make of this piece that seems to be trying to claim that the US was behind this - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8289686/Egypt-protests-Americas-secret-backing-for-rebel-leaders-behind-uprising.html - seems a stretch, to put it mildly, but:

The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.

On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.

Shakey, given Egypt's history, that interest is likely to be 'stability'.

aljazeera isn't giving me anything atm but that could be where i am (work)

Dissolving Parliament would require new elections, no? So perhaps dissolving the cabinet and maybe a reshuffling of the Prime Minister etc. from within the NDP.

Most hilarious bit of that entire speech was the bit that claimed that the ONLY reason the protestors were able to express their grievances was due to Mubarak's own reforms. Which...yes, this is in some meaning of those words true, but LOL at the idea that ppl should be grateful for him "granting" them rights of free speech etc. Also, the idea that his magnanimity in not ordering the army to use violent means vs. protestors should be appreciated.

^^^yeah this was my thinking too. even if he has the authority to dissolve Parliament (okay, sure) that would mean new elections. He can't just appoint a new Parliament, even if he is head of the majority ruling party.

xp

and yes that was lol about the freedoms of the press/assembly being "granted" by the gov't

Will the cabinet actually resign? Does it even matter? Is this just Hitler moving imaginary divisions around in his bunker?

bbc crawl says mubarak is "trying to distance himself from the crack-down across the country"

that would be quite a feat

he's trying to buy some time

He looks like he's got all the time in the world - a very fresh-faced 83

Mmm. My mom's side of the family are Egyptian and the 76 year old great-aunts and great-uncles all look just as sprightly, if not moreso.

I bet they have the odd grey hair though.

How can he possibly hope this will work? The Queen could pull off that kind of line maybe, but not anyone who's actually been in power for thirty years. It surely depends only on whether or not force is used now.

SHOCKINGLY the protesters have rejected mubarak's statement.

i mean surely he can't possibly hope to hang on if he isn't controlling the army...

I'm waiting for a Sarah Palin video explaining that the seeds for all of this go back to some poor decisions made by King Tut.

Total LOLs at the notion of an undemocratic despot sacking his hand-picked government to be replaced by another hand-picked government. Yeah, that'll sate the protestors.

x-post Yeah, where is Palin on this? We need to hear from her!!!!!

Besides the point, but it's been good to see some different cities on the news recently. Alexandria seems nice, and Cairo looks pretty good too though noone I know has a good word to say about the place.

MB asking the army to remove him

@omarbaddar Joke of the day -- Obama: "Hosni, I think you need to write your goodbye letter to your people." Hosni Mubarak: "Why? Where are they going?"

Fox's coverage of this, according to Andrew Sullivan, has been minimal and exclusively of the "It seems as though Al-Qaeda-allied factions in Egypt might take over the Egyptian gov't"

**exclusively of that nature

Sullivan's great at times like this

Hasn't been Sullivan this time but his support crew etc.; Sullivan mentioned earlier in the week he's been laid low by bronchitis.

Well done team, anyway

yeah they are amazing

speaking of which, via them

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e20148c81b5a88970c-550wi

Apropos of nothing, I once read that the noise level of Cairo is a constant 85 dBs, louder than a freight train 15 feet away. This doesn't take into account civil unrest, of course.

# Our administration is pushing for an Internet kill switch for POTUS while saying shutting down of tv and Internet is a "sign of dictators". 11 minutes ago via Twitterrific

# Egypt may be a tipping point. Yemen and Jordan also have smaller uprisings. Iran is smiling, the Saudis and Israelis are not. Pray4peace 14 minutes ago via Twitterrific

# Pray for peace. Egypt is run by a dictator, but Iran in 1979 started the same way. Legit outcry and then co-opted by religious radicals. 17 minutes ago via Twitterrific

glenn beck, ladies and gentlemen

Why is Palin silent!??! What is she afraid of!?!??!!!

mubarak speech was bizarre. i suspect (disagree w/ me pls) he spent the whole day holding out to see if the army would shut down the protest, hoping to make his public statement from a position of power, and when the army did nothing he was reduced to that weird tolerant-populist act. but yeah the government restructure is A) a total red herring and B) not the end of it; i don't really see how he can remain in power now.

Why is Palin silent!??! What is she afraid of!?!??!!!

She has other things on her mind now

Argh. The ideological incoherence makes me angry. EITHER you can think that the Dems are totally oppressive dictator nanny state OR you can think that state control of telecommunications is A-OK. Not both.

Like... "Pray 4 Peace"? So...Tea Party protests by radical Christianists are completely viable but Egyptian protests are DANGEROUS because some of them might be Muslims who don't like America?

Legit outcry and then co-opted by religious radicals.

lol irony

Mubarek should pull a judo move and join the protestors on the street in outrage over his rogue ministry. Perhaps their confusion will last long enough to allow him to flee before they hang him.

# Our administration is pushing for an Internet kill switch for POTUS

what is this abt

obama talking, trying sort of hopelessly to sell mubarak as sufficiently scolded.

yeah this is pretty artless

mubarak has a responsibility to provide concrete steps to something better

please don't kill anyone

egypt will always be a partner of the US

feel bad for the administration honestly, as their only possible position is "well we'll negotiate with whoever wins but heh we'd really kind of prefer that our guy of 30 years in this disastrous region stay in charge even though we know that sounds kinda shitty" and i mean i can't think of a less attractive position to have to sell.

supporting dictators makes things real complicated

"if i were an egyptian i'd like to think i'd be in the street, but i'm president of the us, sorry"

hahahahaha

I don't suppose he could say much else really - can't really influence anything here, so try to be calm while things develop and make sure not to get blamed meantime.

The US could help by surreptitiously airdropping in an internet connect.

i've gotta have some aol cds lying around somewhere

Set up a really powerful wifi hub in the Negev

thought Obama gave Mubarak about as little support as he could get away with

the British foreign minister on Newsnight offered up the same kind of evasions that O's press secretary did earlier today; when he was asked if Britain stood with Mubarak he said something like "the real question is..." - such a classic judo move

I wouldn't be surprised if Mubarak's cabinet had already fled to Saudi Arabia resigned hours before his speech began

sullivan (his support team perhaps less so) has way too much of a hard-on about twitter and such tho.

don't know the accuracy, but i am told that 8% of egyptians have web access

thought Obama gave Mubarak about as little support as he could get away with

as I've said before it's pretty clear from all the state Dept maneuvering today that they don't give a shit about Mubarak and would be happy to see him replaced. they just want him replaced with someone they can deal with and it's not clear if that's going to happen/who that will be.

like, there have not been any statements about what a great friend and ally Hosni Mubarak has been to the US, there's no "THIS MAN IS OUR GUY" posturing in any of the WH/State Dept statements

an interesting angle that I don't think anyone has remarked upon - Mubarak's cabinet includes the Minister of Defense, who is supposed to be in charge of the army... soooo, Mubarak currently casting around for someone from the Army that he can promote who will basically crush the opposition...? and if he can't find one he's probably well and truly fucked

The announcement was strategically made in the middle of the night in Egypt to give time for troops to take position.

The military’s interaction with the demonstrators will need to be watched closely. So far, the military has been able to move into the cities and has been welcomed by the protesters without employing the more heavy-handed tactics of the internal security forces. What order they imposed came not from violence but from the perception that they would enable the demonstrators to bring down Mubarak.

If the military is now physically backing the regime, confrontations between demonstrators (whose grievance is ultimately with Mubarak) and the military forces is likely to turn more violent in the hours ahead.

sullivan's ppl just put up an excerpt of a dude arguing that "more than social media, this is al-jazeera's revolution"

mumble fourth estate mumble mumble

Al Jazeera has really come out in a stellar light from all this. They really seem to be the best news organisation in the world right now, when did one press organisation do so much to bring down oppressive regimes in multiple countries? When I first started watching it I was amazed it was so liberal for an arab broadcasting company but I realised it's actually an incredibly fair network and is probably the least biased of any news organisation including the bbc.

Sullivan made the point that Al Jazeera was vilified by Bush and in retrospect that was hugely telling about everything.

http://sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc6/hs051.snc6/168127_10150173351369199_602254198_8639524_7093712_n.jpg

"Egypt Flips Internet Kill Switch, Will The U.S.?"
http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2376905,00.asp

Pamela Geller cheers for mass arrests, worries that Obama will throw our 'ally' under the bus

as I've said before it's pretty clear from all the state Dept maneuvering today that they don't give a shit about Mubarak and would be happy to see him replaced. they just want him replaced with someone they can deal with and it's not clear if that's going to happen/who that will be.

regardless of how they feel about him, i feel like he's conciliatory enough compared to the rest of the arab league foreign-policy-wise that they'd rather keep him around than roll the dice on anyone else? or i may have misread my frantically swotted wiki articles.

for whatever anyone thinks about people power and democracy and mubarak as a dictator, i would imagine that every international actor save iran would prefer the "stability" that he offers

this has just been insane to watch. less than a year ago i was in Tunisia and then Egypt - and now i'm watching on the news total pandemonium in spots i stood at 11 months ago. if you'd told me a year ago this was going to happen there - i wouldn't have believed you. this is just blowing my mind.

I am staggered at that FB post image. How sheltered are some americans anyway bloody 'eck.

going by the image - i would put it more down to being young and stupid.

^^^canadian friend

Jordan's bustin' out too: http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/01/2011128125157509196.html

What I love about all these stories is all the "after prayers" or "they stopped for an hour for prayers on the highway" stuff. In awe that as a unit they'll fight, protest, but all down arms and pray when its required. Some kind of elegance in that, I dunno.

Apropos of nothing, I once read that the noise level of Cairo is a constant 85 dBs, louder than a freight train 15 feet away. This doesn't take into account civil unrest, of course.

BS. At the worst it's no louder than Manhattan.

NY Times re Al Jazeera:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/world/middleeast/28jazeera.html

“The notion that there is a common struggle across the Arab world is something Al Jazeera helped create,” said Marc Lynch, a professor of Middle East Studies at George Washington University who has written extensively on the Arab news media. “They did not cause these events, but it’s almost impossible to imagine all this happening without Al Jazeera.”

Yet Al Jazeera’s opaque loyalties and motives are as closely scrutinized as its reporting. It is accused of tailoring its coverage to support Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza against their Lebanese and Palestinian rivals. Its reporter in Tunisia became a leading partisan in the uprising there. And critics speculate that the network bowed to the diplomatic interests of the Qatari emir, its patron, by initially playing down the protests in Egypt.

Have to admit that when I woke up this morning and turned on the news and heard the name of the newly appointed Vice President (Omar Suleiman), the first thing that came to mind was:

http://i52.tinypic.com/e5hfmu.jpg

...even though he's Syrian.

YELLA!

Looking at articles and comments on US and UK news sources, there seems to be a big difference in how Americans and Brits see the situation. Americans are all "yay, go democracy," and Brits seem to be saying "it's very dangerous to destabilize the closest thing to a democracy the M.E. has." Or am I misreading it?

Scratch that . . . the latter seems to be the the growing conservative response in both the US and the UK.

I dunno, I hardly keep up with our media myself - I pick & choose off the internet - but when I have dived into it I've found the quality abysmal. Three examples:

*- the initial coverage about Tunisia and Egypt in turn was both weeks late and led heavily on the 'difficulties for returning holidaygoers' angle
*- inappropriate experts: in a single bulletin yesterday there was an IT guy who, after having spoken about the Internet shutdown mechanism, was then invited to opine on how this was going to change the protests; followed by an Egypt expert who turned out to be a Phd student who tried to turn every question into a 'war crimes of Blair & Bush' diatribe
*- Blair again: the BBC carried a story where Yv0nne R1dley condemns Blair for supporting Mubarak, without comment. Follow the link to the audio, and Blair's actually saying he's been advocating change for years, it must happen but the danger is if doesn't happen in a stable environment.

Personally, I find it so insular it's embarrassing. The human interest angle is fair enough as part of a whole, but to carry on the rest as if it's just an extension of the usual entertain-ourselves-by-talking-shit, when it may turn out to be a once-in-a-decade global event, is just hopeless. It just feels like nobody's particularly interested.

(Unconfirmed) reports have Mubarak's sons arriving in London and the military is openly fraternizing with protesters. Looks like he is done.

Anyway, to answer your question from my own point-of-view - I'm caught somewhere between the two I guess. I couldn't be happier about democracy outing ... but I'm terrified that's not what's going to happen. Rather dictatorships than theocracies. I'm optimistic and feel it's worth rolling the dice, but for me it's very much a leap of faith, I just don't know enough about these places locally.

Feeling is that the north Africans would be secular enough to pull it off, the other countries less sure. I do wonder whether Turkey ought to be more of a player - it seems to be the only viable model on offer here.

what about turkey differs from any other secular constitutional democracy?

Ever heard the term "Turkish prison?"

Ever heard the term "Turkish delight?"

The Turkish Army is a very strong presence in Turkish politics and has intervened several times when secularism has been threatened. AKP is Erdogan's second or third political parties, earlier incarnations havng been banned IIRC. The Army has been less active in politics in recent years mainly because Turkey has been trying to join the EU which it sees as a reinforcing secularism against Islamism

also it is the only secular democracy named after a sandwich

but the "on a bloomer, with lettuce, tomato and salad cream" part of the full name is only ever seen on passports.

also geographic proximity

not sure if Joe Biden, Asshole was posted:

http://warincontext.org/2011/01/27/biden-shows-his-contempt-for-the-people-of-egypt/

turkey's the piece of the ottoman empire that came out of world war i thinking OKAY WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE FUCKED AROUND WITH LIKE THE REST OF THE CARCASS AND WE'RE GONNA HOLD ON TO ISTANBUL and threw itself into an ultranationalist movement and an aggressive xenophobic language reform and now is this mix of admirable forward-thinking constitutional liberal principles and scary right-wing theocratic nationalist militarism. which means it succeeded: it's just like the ottoman empire.

xp re: biden -- as with obama's waffling statement, have trouble really faulting people who regardless of how they feel about the situation are required to act as if the interests of u.s. foreign policy in noted regional clusterfuck the arab world are morally sound. honestly, sort of suspect biden was dispatched specifically to blurt out "mubarak is not a dictator" so that the idea could enter the discourse from a Known Loose Cannon and obama's totally non-scolding speech could look slightly more scolding by comparison. but yes, obv mubarak is a dictator.

admirable forward-thinking constitutional liberal principles

this lot being the ones who think the army can stage coups whenever it likes and passed laws making it a crime to speak languages other than Turkish.

believe i mentioned the scary right-wing theocratic nationalist militarism and the aggressive xenophobic language reform

"forward-thinking" economic principles might be more apt

ok so when we say the turkish model we mean a model where the army intervenes whenever

And the genocide of the Armenians comes to mind. Granted, that was 1915 or so.

I think when we say the Turkish model we mean "friendly to the west," i.e. they let us use their air space to go bomb Iraq.

but the country is Western in its financial principles xpost

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/8288555/Authoritarian-governments-start-stockpiling-food-to-fight-public-anger.html

Authoritarian governments across the world are aggressively stockpiling food as a buffer against soaring food costs which they fear may stoke popular discontent.

By Ben Farmer in Islamabad 4:11PM GMT 28 Jan 2011

Commodities traders have warned they are seeing the first signs of panic buying from states concerned about the political implications of rising prices for staple crops.

However, the tactic risks simply further pushing up prices, analysts have warned, pushing a spiral of food inflation.

Governments in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa have recently made large food purchases on the open market in the wake of unrest in Tunisia which deposed president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.

Resentment at food shortages and high prices, as well as repression and corruption, drove the popular uprising which swept away his government.

Youths reportedly chanted "bring us sugar!" in the demonstrations which toppled his regime.

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis, this week told the World Economic Forum in Davos that high prices were "leading to riots, demonstrations and political instability." "It's really something that can topple regimes, as we have seen in the Middle East," he said.

Algeria purchased 800,000 tonnes of milling wheat on Wednesday and Saudi Arabia has said it will purchase enough wheat for a 12 month reserve.

Egypt, which has seen several days of unrest in part provoked by high food prices, is expected to follow.

Bangladesh has tripled its rice import target and Indonesia this week bought 820,000 tonnes of Thai rice.

Jim Gerlach, of commodity brokerage A/C Trading, said: "Sovereign nations are beginning to stockpile food to prevent unrest." "You artificially stimulate much higher demand when nations start to increase stockpiles."

"This is only the start of the panic buying," said Ker Chung Yang, commodities analyst at Singapore-based Phillip Futures. "I expect we'll have more countries coming in and buying grain."

Prices have not hit the peaks seen in 2008 when inflation caused a food price crisis, but economists have warned they still have the power to topple regimes

basically i am just impressed that turkey is not iran. i am impressed that they got through an ultranationalist and predominantly islamic revolution designed to minimize parasitic western influence and promote turkish self-sufficiency without actually collapsing into a theocratic disaster. and yeah, they're plenty cool with exterminating non-turks when the feeling strikes them, but their citizens could do worse. xp

soon, i hope to be even more impressed by egypt!

James Baldwin dug Istanbul quite a lot.

With Egypt, anything could happen now. The fundamentalists will definitely make a power grab, right? I hope the Egyptian people will resist them.

european and middle eastern history, c. 300-1918: a series of people digging istanbul quite a lot.

i haven't read anything today but yesterday what everyone was saying was "it's bizarre how decentralized these protests seem". like there were plenty of muslim brotherhood dudes out there i'm sure, along with plenty of everyone else, but it really did seem like just several hundred thousand people simultaneously pissed off at a single guy for their own reasons. which is an impression you can artificially create (and that telegraph article posted upthread was intriguing/bizarre) but which might also be totally real, in which case the process of reestablishing order might be seriously epochal, change-wise, and which could go anywhere.

6.36pm: The leader of Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood has warned that unrest in Egypt will spread across the Middle East and that Arabs will topple leaders allied with the United States, AP reports.

Hammam Saeed's comments were made at a protest outside the Egyptian embassy in Amman, inspired by massive rallies in neighbouring Egypt.

About 100 members of the fundamentalist group and activists from other leftist organizations and trade unions chanted "Mubarak, step down" and "the decision is made, the people's revolt will remain."

yeah see that really does sound to me like the m.b. putting their name on the list--100 people!--and trying to sound like they're in control of something they're not. which isn't to say they couldn't get control of it.

is my fear. I'm not aware of any other potential leaders out there. A fundamental problem with revolt-crushing dictatorships I guess

i think the best-case scenario is a coalition govt w/ the brohood and elbaradei--the thing is its sorta unclear what kind of support elbaradei actually has beyond like... western journalists

He has some I think but I just don't know enough about who else is out there. Would not want the mb anywhere near power. It may be that an interim govt of technocrats until there is time for parties to coalesce, then elections, is the best-case outcome.

Sulieman is known for crushing Isalmic revolts, bloody-like, which some Westerners may find reassuring, at least initially. Meanwhile, dunno how much street cred ElBaradei has, although criticized by some demonstrators for not coming home and stepping up quickly enough, he's still got quite a rep as voice of sanity, which property will only get you so far of course. Here's his Wiki (yeah, but I checked a bunch of the links, they're legit) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_ElBaradei

Sorry! it's actually http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_ElBaradei

How does Aynam Nour fit into all this? Does he have widespread popular support?

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/51015000/jpg/_51015832_011145563-1.jpg

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110129-red-alert-hamas-and-muslim-brotherhood

oh god they're fucking with the antiquities. so anti-protester now.

The last I read, the army had moved into the Museum, after some vandalism, but apparently no theft beyond the gift shop (they're not protecting the neighborhoods though; they're encouraging vigilantes, who didin't need encouragement). It;s Ayman, not Aynam Nour. Some say he was hurt yesterday, but haven't verified. Meanwhile, from Euronews.net,a thumbnail & recent quotes:

Ayman Nour, Egyptian opposition emblem
28/01/2011
Ayman Nour is the leading opposition politician of the government of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. A lawyer, Nour is an emblematic figure in Egypt. His wife Gamela Ismail is also involved in the protests.

At the head of the liberal El-Ghad party (‘Tomorrow’), which he founded in 2004, he was Hosni Mubarak’s main opponent in the 2005 presidential elections. He only won eight percent of the vote but gained second place after the huge majority claimed by Mubarak. Nour contested the results, but above all castigated the regime for being unable to tackle unemployment.

Amongst the crowds demonstrating in Cairo this week, Nour told the authorities: “Our message today consists of one word, “leave”. We are telling President Moubarak to leave. We do not want you. We cannot stand you or your regime. The Egyptian people no longer want this system. You have closed all doors to peaceful change.”

For this opposition leader the regime is finished. Before the communication black-out with Egypt, Ayman Nour told euronews how he saw the end of this crisis: “With all the political parties from all sides we will form popular assemblies as an alternative to parliament to fight against the fraud of the last parliamentary, senatorial and presidential elections.”

In 2005 Nour was sentenced to five years in prison on charges of forging documents used in applying for legal status for his El-Ghad party. He was released on medical grounds – diabetes – in February 2009, but remains ineligible for elections which it had been forecast would take place in September this year.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/.a/6a00d83451c45669e20147e2198006970b-550wi

i think the best-case scenario is a coalition govt w/ the brohood and elbaradei--the thing is its sorta unclear what kind of support elbaradei actually has beyond like... western journalists

― max, Saturday, January 29, 2011 2:45 PM Bookmark

In this conflict I really feel a sense of being doomed to either get new filtered through the liberal western media lens ("yay, peaceful democratic protest that will probably bring in a moderate, freedom-loving leader!") or the conservative western media lens ("uh oh instability this makes me really nervous guys better to have the monster we know"). Agenda-based spin is sort of inevitable, to the point that the journalists themselves may not realize what they are superimposing on the conflict. I mean I guess this has always been true of US coverage of foreign conflicts, but maybe I'm more aware of it in our internet age?

sorry that should be "get NEWS filtered"

http://i53.tinypic.com/epq7g2.jpg

http://c2771442.cdn.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/EgyptMuseum-09.png

;_;

pictures of some of the vandalism of the egyptian museum by looters:

http://hyperallergic.com/17815/egyptian-museum-damage/

:(((

next thing you know they'll be tearing down those pyramids.

The Egyptian Protests: Phase II

http://www.latinoreview.com/images/stories/rotf-dev_on_pyramid.jpg

that museum vandalism is a real piss off!

Re questions about how spontaneous the current demos are, I've seen a few mentions of Wiki-leaked cables from 2009 (I think), saying that Mubarak intended that his son Gamal (spelling?) as successor, but the army wasn't pleased. Today: reports of demonstrators riding around on tanks decorated with pro-demo graffiti, etc. But: army(replacing cops, in a laidback way) not stopping looters, while new prime minister is retired general and vice pres. is the aforementioned hardass security director/general Sulieman

This video's getting a lot of traffic. Questionable soundtrack, very propagandist vibe, but some amazing footage to be seen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ThvBJMzmSZI

In this conflict I really feel a sense of being doomed to either get new filtered through the liberal western media lens ("yay, peaceful democratic protest that will probably bring in a moderate, freedom-loving leader!") or the conservative western media lens ("uh oh instability this makes me really nervous guys better to have the monster we know")

i think the above is just in your head. this is a broad-based (middle-class, working class, students, practicing muslims), non-extremist uprising against a repressive govt in the most populous state in the middle east - something to be excited about imo. for years everyone's assumed the only alternatives were between tyranny and religious extremism. as one of the guests on last night's newsnight said, "if tunisia, a tiny state, could inspire this in egypt, the biggest state in the middle east, imagine what THIS could inspire"

btw the protests haven't been exactly peaceful

http://i53.tinypic.com/epq7g2.jpg

― cozen, Saturday, January 29, 2011 4:17 PM (1 hour ago)

is this for real

A mob is still a mob.

oh man al-j anchorlady has got the DSL beaucoup

blogger being interviewd on al-j says tunisia was inspired by labor uprisings in egypt over the past year - i would like to read a bit about that. anyone?

capitalist pigdogs are leaving in droves by private plane

Hurting i share your frustration at relying on TV for this though - it feels so thin and inadequate

http://i54.tinypic.com/2aaloqb.jpg

attack strategy based on the hopeful premise that the policeman will have his face-shield up.

is this for real

Yeah, it's not recent though.

lol@me reposting the fifth post in this topic

capitalist pigdogs are leaving in droves by private plane

― progressive cuts (Tracer Hand), Saturday, January 29, 2011 11:21 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark

i love this post so many diff ways

up against the wall the lot of you!

lol no c u *boards g5*

pig see u

Oh Im in love
With Egypt.

Banks and markets apparently to stay closed Sun,, first day of working week, But if Mubarak wants everything to go back to normal, how can banks, markets and much else do that without the internet? Maybe it'll be back on selectively?

evanchill State TV announces Al Jazeera's broadcasting license and press cards are being revoked. Our bureau is packing up. #jan25

But if Mubarak wants everything to go back to normal, how can banks, markets and much else do that without the internet?

Things are obviously a far way from normal, and the internet is the least of it. It sounds like law and order is fundamentally breaking down. The state is ceasing to function beyond the military. My guess is that Mubarak will be gone within 72 hours.

Protests continue across Egypt this morning after five days of civil unrest, clashes with police and looting. But rumours are circulating that President Hosni Mubarak has left the capital to practise his stroke in the safety of a luxury golf resort.

Locals in Sharm-el-Sheikh told reporters they are convinced the autocratic ruler is holed up in his winter residence inside the sprawling complex of the Maritim Jolie Ville Golf Hotel. Mubarak's official plane is said to have been spotted at Sharm's airport.

Unconfirmed reports have also emerged that Egypt's ruling elite are fleeing the country altogether. An unnamed "official" at Cairo airport is reported to have said 19 private jets have left so far, taking the country's plutocracy to the safety of Dubai and other friendly nations.

Among the exodus are said to have been Naguib Sawiris, executive chairman of Orascom Telecom, and Hussein Salem – a close friend of Mubarak's who owns the Maritim Jolie Ville Golf Hotel.

eh 3/5

http://grab.by/8FAX

el-baradei in tahrir square, says "the mubarak regime must stand down"

I thought he was under house arrest? I thought you'd be glued to the football?

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/01/30/world/30egyptch_1/30egyptch_1-custom15.jpg

ElBaradei with the protesters.

the thing about elbaradei is that this protest movement wasn't sparked by him, and it never called for his arrival. this movement is genuinely anarchic (so far) in that it seems people don't want a "figure" to step in and assume the reins. it doesn't really know what it wants other than mubarak to step down. but it's not baying for s savior.

it's also a little disappointing - though understandable realpolitik - that elbaradei has already enlisted the support of the muslim brotherhood. one of the exciting things about all this so far is its secularism and youthfulness

and elbaradei = old

I think you can still have a youth movement with an older person at the top; an establishment type who understands the wants and needs of the youth. I'm still trying to understand how Ayman Nour fits into all of this. He was the main opposition leader prior to the protests, right? Where is he?

Also, Hillary Clinton used the phrase "orderly transition" today. Possibly an indication of Washington's waning support for Mubarak.

it seems people don't want a "figure" to step in and assume the reins

but you gotta have one, right? reins have to be assumed. i thought the idea was, best case scenario, elbaradei leads interim govt until free and fair elections are held.

I'm gathering that Ayman Nour supports ElBaradei as interim leader:

AJ quoted Nour saying, "We have formed an opposition committee for change that involves 10 members, represented by El Baradei."

so i guess the protesters have fallen in behind elbaradei and the army, so far, behind mubarak. the generals were the guys he really had to appease i guess.

lotta paranoiac types suggesting the media/internet blackout + mooby out of the city + tanks guarding the square = there is abt to be a massacre

^^^ not endorsing this theory btw

yeah that seems incredibly unlikely given that the only card mubarak even owns is the "i am pretty reasonable as far as it goes" card, and closing the al jazeera office doesn't mean the world's stopped watching.

the world was watching tiananmen square too!

i mean... werent they?

sure but the chinese communist party wasn't clinging to power by its fingernails hoping it could make something out of its decent relationship with the u.s. state department.

like, i guess mubarak could decide that he has the army in his pocket and can institute a military dictatorship and fuck the world, but he's gotten pretty used to good international standing not to mention u.s. money over the years, and the revolt has now progressed so far that i think the time to crush them and say it was for the good of the country and come out of it looking like he cares even remotely about anything except the preservation of his personal power is long gone.

I am also skeptical. China in 1989 was a far more insular society than Egypt (or China today). The Chinese leadership didn't give a shit about the international reaction, or cared little compared to internal stability. Given that, the CCP still needed to truck in troops from the hinterlands to propagate a massacre. Would the Egyptian military even carry out that order?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjFs9CPGhts

mubarak could easily reach a point where he feels like massacring or stepping down are his only options

Would the Egyptian military even carry out that order?

oh yeah this too--the guy just got a skeptical and oats-feeling army back on his side and saying OKAY COOL NOW KILL EVERYONE WHO DOESN'T LIKE ME probably isn't the best way to start them off.

The optimist in me hopes that Mubarak is buying time while he secures his post-power situation and helps ensure a new order is in place for the benefit of his country. My hope is that he'll step down in the next couple of days and a reasonable transitional government will step in immediately followed by free elections in 90 days.

and everyone gets a car!

Let a man have hope!

Oh and I didn't mean to imply that the CCP's decision to use force in 1989 was unanimous and easily reached. Far from it.

The only way Mubarak can stay in power now is with the help of the military, not necessarily using violence but certainly resulting in a military dictatorship, which would mean bye bye US $$$.

Mubarak is buying time while he secures his post-power situation and helps ensure a new order is in place for the benefit of his country.

^^^ First half OTM, second half, he doesn't give a shit about the stability of Egypt.

i think he gives a shit about "stability", but it's a word that has been interpreted broadly

i don't think he is preparing for a massacre for the reason DLH gives; mostly likely he is trying to work towards some settlement in which he or his people keep hold of some important levers of power

This quote from the NYT, in its own way, get to the heart if the problem

When we suggested to an Egyptian friend affected by teargas that he buy onions and use it to diminish the affect of the gas, as we do in Israel and the Occupied Territories, he laughed. He then explained his salary is about 300 Egyptian pounds, and one kilo of onions is three pounds.

Mubarak trying to start a class war?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/world/africa/31classwar.html?hp

Ayman Adbel Al, 43, a civil engineer inspecting the damage with his two teenage sons, blamed Mr. Mubarak, arguing that he had allowed the growing class divisions in Egyptian society to build up for years until they exploded last week. “I can say that I am well off, but I hate it, too. It is not humanitarian,” he said, showing a picture of himself with his family at the protests Saturday. The only people who wanted Mr. Mubarak to stay in power, he argued, were rich people “afraid for their money.”

Shut uuuuuuup, Joe Biden.

even Egypt is complaining about inequality? Income Inequality, Egypt vs US

American press is always so preoccupied with looting, it's really pathetic. no time for context or in-depth analysis OMG PRIVATE PROPERTY BEING THREATENED!

(^^^ bitterness about the retarded level of coverage from CNN this weekend)

otm

"a discussion as to what the legitimate claims being made are, if they are,"

Assuming he's not just a ventriloquist dummy here, this is why I bailed on the Good Ship Hope when this fucker got picked for veep.

ugh can't somebody muzzle biden right now

speaking of looting:

http://i.min.us/idYYpM.jpg

idk looting's not really been the exclusive preoccupation of the media has it?

also it's public property, the shit people are upset about

xp

I'm primarily bitching about the TV coverage I caught intermittently over the last couple days from CNN and Fox

its sort of touching, even if mubarak does step down and free elections are held etc inevitably old habits/power structures reassert themselves and progress is incremental at best, in some ways this protest is as good as it gets

The blog world hasn't yet conceived of a way to cover inchoate, volatile events like this without looking like jackasses. CNN and FOX News just want continuous shots of brown-skinned sandaled sand people walking off with mummies and DVD players.

clearly not following the old journalistic axiom:

man looting a mummy and dvd player, not news

mummy looting a dvd player, news!

lol

American press is always so preoccupied with looting, it's really pathetic. no time for context or in-depth analysis OMG PRIVATE PROPERTY BEING THREATENED!

(^^^ bitterness about the retarded level of coverage from CNN this weekend)

this is why this article was so obnoxious.

I'd be pretty pissed if some plebe stole my mummy and DVD player.

What are you saying the blog world should be doing (or is there no possible way to suggest context is needed without coming across in a way that you think looks bad)?

I think Biden has been quiet since those stupid comments last week that keep getting linked to and discussed! 3 days is good for him.

my guess is the administration is either not really unified in opinion on what should happen here, more (more likely) is saying a range of things at once in order to see what sticks, and to look like they were 'ready for' whatever happens next since nobody really knows.

also joe biden just says stuff, which is what everyone claims to want from politicians, in practice tho

well he's right about it not being like eastern europe

no--much hotter in egypt for example

better to be preoccupied with looting than

This is how the main stories from Britain's best-selling dailies begin. Keen-eyed media studies graduates may detect a pattern:

The Daily Mail (average daily circulation last month 2,030,968): "British tourists..."

The Sun (average circulation 2,717,013): "Thirty thousand Brits..."

The Daily Mirror (average circulation 1,133,440): "Britons were urged to flee..."

The Daily Express (average circulation 623,689): "Up to 30,000 Britons..."

It is not just the opening lines. The Daily Mail's 28 paragraph story devotes 18 paragraphs to the "terrifying ordeal" endured by British tourists (not one of whom has been harmed to date), including the "mayhem" some had witnessed at Cairo airport, and an interview with a man whose flight was delayed for seven hours.

what sort of crazy person would leave the country under those circumstances, youre witnessing history people!

official announcement from the Army that they will not fire on protestors

...?

the worst thing in the daily mail was a column by christopher hitchens' mirror-universe brother peter clicking his tongue at clueless western liberals "supporting" the protests and saying that the best advice for dealing with "nasty arab regimes" was to be found in hilaire belloc's line about "always keep ahold of nurse for fear of finding something worse"

that was pretty bad

that seems to be the meme emerging on the gutter right -- obama is giving egypt away to the muslim brotherhood to destroy israel, or something

wait til they get around to canal-closure speculation

is this must-get-home-at-all costs mentality solely a British thing? An acquaintance once spent just shy of two grand flying home early from holiday in Jamaica because there was a hurricane coming.

xp -- yeah the line they've been using is YOU GUYS WERE EXCITED ABOUT THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION TOO which a) probably isn't really true and b) assumes there are no important differences to be considered between various upset masses of brown people

http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0111/Egypt_experts_head_to_WH_powwow.html

not a great bunch of people on first glace

The White House and their efforts to be bipartisan--they saw Abrams piece in the Sunday W. Post...

The Brit newspapers have their approach and some former Bush administration neo-con hacks (E. Abrams and M. Thiessen in the W. Post) keep repeating their own party line re how W should get credit, while others just want to blame Obama for any problems created by a lack of "stability"

It was a good, serious meeting, an attendee said afterwards.

good to know it didn't degenerate into the ribald japery that so frequently characterizes these white house "meetings"

got Egypt competing hard with Fernando Torres & Andy Carroll on my Sky 'breaking news' ticker atm

that seems to be the meme emerging on the gutter right -- obama is giving egypt away to the muslim brotherhood to destroy israel, or something

Someone on Andrew Breithard's blog posited as much.

"Heavy Fog in channel; Continent cut off" is not a new sentiment in our papers.

Egypt crisis: Beleaguered Mubarak reshuffles cabinet

The army said in a statement carried on Egyptian media: "To the great people of Egypt, your armed forces, acknowledging the legitimate rights of the people... have not and will not use force against the Egyptian people."

Basically this leaves Mubarak to try every single cabinet option until he finally realises that he has to leave.

g/o, exits mubarak

^not breaking new btw, just commenting on the armys statement

what sort of crazy person would leave the country under those circumstances, youre witnessing history people!

not sure if you're being serious. i was there this time last year and part of me thinks it would be awesome to have witnessed this shit firsthand - and i know there's another part of me that would want out asahp! i mean - if anything did happen to you there, as a tourist, you'd feel pretty dumb for having intentionally stayed behind. and i can only image the hell my parents would be going through knowing i was there and had no way of easily getting in touch with me.

footage on the bbc just now of vigilantes patrolling street corners brandishing cricket bats - where'd'you get hold of a cricket bat in Cairo?!

is cricket not popular there

Egypt not really known for it in my experience

British colonial legacy is pretty nuts

I was there during the caricatures protests and even saw a march in Tahrir Square - I'm not sure I'd want to be there right now.

you guys are all total wimps and afraid of momentouness, id totally be out there fist pumping away man, dodging tear gas canisters from my hotel balcony

Soccer clubs central to ending Egypt's 'Dictatorship of Fear'

guess this is why they canceled the game with usa usa usa

i'm just jealous of the reporters. i wanna be sprinting through the streets in a hawaiian shirt and a flak jacket. xp

The last ISP still running (Noor) has gone offline, so Egypt basically has no internet any more, unless people can dial international numbers w/modems. (I think a French ISP offered free access to anyone calling from Egypt).

Egypt basically has no internet any more

Doesn't that mean the economy is fucked? I thought they said the stock exchange needed something on the day or everything would seize up.

'British colonial legacy is pretty nuts' - a person living in north america, writing in english

on his cricket bat

jolly good

Media Matters notes a hilarious study in contrasting headlines at FOX Nation:

http://cloudfront.mediamatters.org/static/images/item/foxnation-20110131-palin1.jpg

http://cloudfront.mediamatters.org/static/images/item/foxnationpalin2.jpg

ElBaradei's sudden emergence as a national consensus figure has caught many international observers by surprise. It has also prompted American policy makers to go silent, fearing that any public U.S. support for ElBaradei or any other potential Egyptian leader could undermine prospects for unifying the country.

"They are really, really trying hard not to personalize and not to focus on individuals," said Marc Lynch, an associate professor at George Washington University and Foreign Policy blogger who was briefed today by White House officials on the administration's Egypt policy. "They are bending over backwards not to be seen as appointing the next president of Egypt." But ElBaradei, he notes, is "extremely well placed to reassure all constituencies which need reassuring that he is not likely to stick around for ever and be the next Mubarak."

http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/31/el_baradeis_personal_revolution_from_multilateral_bureaucrat_to_populist_patriot

So, Jordan's King Abdullah has just sacked his entire govt in wake of protests. What next?

Why his name ElBaradei and not Elbaradei or El Baradei or El-Baradel or el Baradei or el-Baradei?

L. Baradei

Larry Baradei - he's just trying to build some gravitas

Just heard a really moving dispatch on NPR (BBC I think)

Just read a Richard Cohen piece in the W. Post that I am guessing is wrong and uninformed. Something about a Muslim Brotherhood member who was hanged in 1966 and was anti-semitic, plus middle east chaos.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/31/AR2011013104014.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

Things are about to go from bad to worse in the Middle East. An Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement is nowhere in sight. Lebanon just became a Hezbollah state, which is to say that Iran has become an even more important regional power, and Egypt, once stable if tenuously so, has been pitched into chaos. This is the most dire prospect of them all. The dream of a democratic Egypt is sure to produce a nightmare.

Looks like after several days of not showing or naming their reporters in Egypt in the wake of being banned by Mubarak and having some of its reporters arrested, AJE is putting its reporters there back on camera.

Unconfirmed rumours that Mubarak has gone according to Channel 4's foreign affairs correspondent on Twitter.

@jrug Rumour is that Mubarak has gone. Can not confirm. Celebrations in streets #c4news #jan25 #feb01 #egypt

Probably bullshit, but...

"Facebook is banned in Syria, which makes organising more difficult"

lol

nothing on Al-J about it Matt..

'has gone' is sort of a vague turn of phrase

Al-J interviewed a state dept spokesman on Thursday. Hey, TV media: here's how to do an interview:

http://english.aljazeera.net/video/middleeast/2011/01/201112713644706462.html

interviewer: "There have been reports of police firing rubber-coated steel bullets at protestors, perhaps that's more important than Twitter being up"

The rumor I'd heard was that he was at his winter residence at Sharm-el-Sheikh.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/egypt/8290760/Locals-in-Sharm-el-Sheikh-convinced-Mubarak-is-holed-up-there.html

protests getting much bigger, hundreds of thousands out there now, thats the final piece

ban richard cohen

The Washington Post should have done that a long time ago

eh times says hundreds of thousands al jazeera says two million - crowds are hard to count

Police all over the world are esp. bad at counting, ime

haha:

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney urged the Obama administration to press for the resignation of Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak on Tuesday, and said it was time for Mubarak to listen to Egyptian protesters and "step out of the way."

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20030197-503544.html

no solidarity between the shockingly young-looking, i guess.

its starting to look a lot like the end of the Hodgson regime

crowds are hard to count

not according to professional crowd counters.

sign in the crowd

YES WE CAN TOO

aww

oh we're gonna see that one again believe me

lol al jazeera just interviewed an official from mubaraks party and he was all i told him many times just this year he had to listen to the people and be nicer and change things alalalala sure buddy

god richard cohen is the WORST

so hitler > richard cohen, is that what ur saying

http://grab.by/8HWChttp://grab.by/8HWChttp://grab.by/8HWChttp://grab.by/8HWChttp://grab.by/8HWC

AJ reporting that security for the tahrir square demonstration being provided by an army/civilian collaboration to prevent secret police from entering.

max it's just a little pro-dictator rhetoric in america's most influential political newspaper, let's be cool.

i've resisted putting up all the crazy right wing crap i've been seeing, but tracer that's the weak end of it believe me

again from that Al-J interview with the state dept:

interviewer: "democracy would be destabilizing to the region, wouldn't it?"

Batshit Rightwing Cartoons 2011

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PH7GPPpsw6g

oh god

can you summarise beck's wacky geography lesson? I don't want to watch it.

i don't know he's talking about the goddamn WEATHERMEN at the moment

he looks like a weatherman in that frame

goole i do not expect to profit from viewing the video behind that link

lol. "i've run out of riots"

the thesis, no really, is that all of these countries with bad things happening in them, riots and unrest: spain, tunisia, greece, lebanon, egypt -- are connected by the mediterranean. it's all connected!

At what point can I cease even bothering to refute Beck? It really should be beneath my dignity.

fyi that's the first 10min stretch of beck i've ever been able to stand. weird.

The truth doesn't have an agenda, guys.

he also says that the riots are "exactly like" iran 1979 but nobody else is brave enough to say so? except that every lazy imperialist has been saying that constantly for the past week. also no they aren't.

anyway the idea that somebody needs to crush this thing because it's all gonna go to hell if the a-rabs rise up is basically the idea the right wing is batting around.

THE COMING INSURRECTION

he basically thinks the entire mediterranean is on fire. literally.

the entire mediterranean... is on fire.

xp heh

oh and tunisia = archduke ferdinand

something about a big snowball

also he suggests that successful revolutions in the arab world will encourage a muslim invasion of europe. because they want it, guys--they've wanted it ever since the reconquista! look at their beady little eyes.

xp demonstration effects

found this very moving

like, the opening pages of Homage to Catalonia-style inspiring

the entire mediterranean including s europe is gonna become a muslim caliphate then the overwhelming numbers of 'radicalized muslimites' are gonna join in russia gonna push in this way see chinas gonna push in this way its all coordinated its just like iran its just like the 1st world war saudis gonna push in this way if theyre still around cause they are scared to death israel shia sunni etc etc

i watched the whole thing!

http://biggovernment.com/taylorking/2011/01/29/did-muslim-brotherhood-learn-day-of-rage-egypt-protest-tactics-from-obama-allies-bill-ayers-and-code-pink/

that fact that there are people who cant identify beck as a classic bullshitter on sight is p chilling, its a giant snowball

anyway the idea that somebody needs to crush this thing because it's all gonna go to hell if the a-rabs rise up is basically the idea the right wing is batting around.

I find this not only condescending but idiotic. Conceivably they have it exactly backwards; if you don't allow the Arabs hope in freedom and democracy, you can be certain that their present authoritarian regimes will one day fall to vitriolic movements bent on punishing the West and I have seen no indication so far that the Egyptians are not remarkably politically mature in their revolt, self-policing, inclusive, decent, patriotic.

The right-wing narrative, once again, is being driven by the desire to emulate Churchill in the wilderness years and have the bravery to be against Nazi re-armament, only this time 'islamofascism' is the existential threat to freedom except for when freedom is a threat to freedom, of course. They're complete loons.

putting aside legitimate concerns (how can they transition power without falling into anarchy, what will democracy look like -- ie logistical questions) i cannot see how any intelligent ethical person could not be moved and inspired by what is going on in egypt. also, my impression about the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in egypt atm is that they are kinda like fringy right-wingers in America. Some are interested in legitimate participation in government, some are radicals. But we have lunatic radicals in the West too and they haven't staged a takeover of our governance. this is nothing like gaza where almost all politics started in a radical position and so the choice between fatah + hamas could resolve in an undemocratic way (not to mention Israel basically just withdrawing and things being slapped together in haste). in egypt there is a lot of moderate thoughtful representation and these are a nation of people clearly crying out for representation. it's incredibly moving imho.

Shakey, it's really disconcerting when the crazy A-rabs behave with more circumspectionn and composure than your average tea-party obamacare opponent.

Ha ha, goole, like there have never been riots or uprisings in Egypt. The ahistoric and ad hominem stretch that these guys will go to is risible.

well it's always about them isn't it...

haha yeah michael i think glenn beck just assumes all mobs are like the one he whips up, i.e. paranoid and cultish

i think the fountainhead of the right-wing attitude towards stuff like this is that "freedom" is something america invented and will be happy to export, but it's far too dangerous for anyone else to attempt to manufacture, especially arabs.

if they really want to be patriarchal they could just say, "they learned about it from watching us" and feel all good about themselves.

if they really want to be patriarchal they could just say, "they learned about it from watching us" and feel all good about themselves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-Elr5K2Vuo

I wonder what they think of Eisenhauer screwing the Israelis/French/British over Suez?

Eisenhauer?

Dwayne "Dude" Eisenhauer, TKE frat house, 1962

Bloody Germans

Ha ha! I don't know why that's the way it's spelled in my head. How odd.

just sat through that entire beck clip and my head is spinning with the amount of invented connections

did u guys miss btw that this is actually all bill ayers fault

ayers is in bed w/turkey everyone knows that

gross

Jordan quaking in its boots too, apparently. wonder what the Saudis think... I mean, they don't have the uber-poor population that Egypt does but still.

Saudi Arabia seems like a whole different kettle of fish. Was watching Asia Cup finals and saw Qatar royalty sitting in their thrones at the stadium, and it was gross.

the amount of bad facts and poorly formed logical connections in that cohen article is breathtaking

reading thru the corner reminds me that the american right has hated el baradei from way back:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/258519/el-baradei-and-al-qaqaa-affair-cliff-may

yeah elbaradei is a "stooge of iran" fyi

also has anyone seen elbaradei and bill ayers in the same place at the same time??? not saying just sayin....

*slaps glenn beck's fire icon to thread*

ilx is on fire, twitter is on fire, the internet is on fire

we learned to troll from code pink

sounds like mubarak might announce he wont seek re-election

and for my next failed gambit at maintaining power

nowhere else to go after that, except to live in Saudi

#
1859: Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq appears on Egyptian television without a shirt and tie - an unprecedented event. He says he is worried, but is confident that he can make the country stable again.

huh?

and 'obama urges mubarak not to run again'

honestly that doesn't really seem like such a bad option - interim gov't can get set up in the intervening months, parties can form, etc. and then free elections in the fall. of course whether the protesters are willing to wait that long is another question

I guess at this point I should just say whether the COUNTRY is willing to wait that long lol

yeah it seems like its pretty obvs the protestors have the upper hand at this point so why not just play it out

mubarak stepping down in sept can still mess w/things/the election til then

as he has been known to

does anyone else find it odd that Bin Laden/Zwahiri et al have apparently been totally silent through all this?

mubarak stepping down in sept can still mess w/things/the election til then

^^^yes definitely. potential grounds for rejection of that option there. no doubt he would try to reassert authority via proxy or something

dude should probably cut his losses and flee the country before he gets put on trial tbh

does anyone else find it odd that Bin Laden/Zwahiri et al have apparently been totally silent through all this?

probably for the same reason everyone else (Muslim Brotherhood, Israel, other groups) is silent. they're waiting to see how it plays out before they decide how they feel about it

cut a deal for immunity and gtfo seems like his best bet at this point xp

like, it looks to me like egypt might become a liberal democracy. it might look that way to bin laden too, which would suck for the mission obv. but he can't exactly condemn a popular anti-fascist uprising or he'll look really bad. idk.

outside forces dont want to be seen as influencing the process as egyptians are seeming p fed up w/outside forces influencing their processes at this point

also, it's pretty clear that whatever the population wants right now, they don't want a theocracy and they don't want violence. There's not much AQ can gain by trying to insert a role for themselves here

I bet Zawahiri is paying very close attention.

it might draw attention to the fact that this is an utter, crushing defeat and humiliation for them

Typically in this sort of long-term dictatorship, once the central figure is broken there are too many, and too scattered, centers of potential power to make any predictions about how it rearranges itself. I expect the military is going to be the decisive factor, which would also be pretty typical. If they want elections, that seems like it would be a promising development. I expect the Muslim Brotherhood would be outlawed as a political party, in any event.

Al Qaeda isn't going to give anybody jobs in Egypt and that's what they really want. They may successfully become a more liberal democracy, but their economic straits are going to be much harder to turn around. They seem intent on getting the elite's hand out of the cookie jar and rolling back the oppressive authority of the security services that have been messing with them since the emergency law was put into effect, a law that allowed the c ops to mess with people in many and mostly corrupt ways. I doubt many are in the mood for religious police or anybody to fcuk with ordinary ppl right now and the essential dignity of common Egyptians has been amazing.

It's my impression from news stories that the Muslim Brotherhood is much more interested in limiting any extremism/violence and becoming a part of the new government (obv I'm assuming there will be some kind of parliamentary solution).

I expect the Muslim Brotherhood would be outlawed as a political party, in any event.

I don't think this is likely - the role they've played so far points to genuine political ambitions

yeah i read a bunch abt them a while ago, the specifics escape me, but the overall impression was of a not that extreme anymore nationalist wide ranging political org

don't know if this has been posted yet but live feed from al jazeera in egypt here: http://www.youtube.com/user/AlJazeeraEnglish

M: Hey Omar…you know that there many tweets coming in saying he is going to shut down everything tonight…whatever little internet was left and mobiles and landlines even?

O: Fuck the internet! I have not seen it since Thursday and I am not missing it. I don’t need it. No one in Tahrir Square needs it. No one in Suez needs it or in Alex…Go tell Mubarak that the peoples revolution does not his damn internet!

M: Ha ha! You just gave me a possible title for the piece my friend…

O: Tayyib good. But honestly I mean 40 % of this country is living below the poverty line and a large chunk above that is barely surviving and then you have middle class doctors and lawyers etc and then you have you know rich people like me yaani…I mean it is true that cell phone penetration has improved very much…you know they even say that maybe 60 million have cellphones…you know…but its like those basic yaani really basic mobiles…nothing fancy…no internet bullshit for example…I can tell you that the majority of Egyptians have no idea what Facebook is or what Twitter is! I mean you ask me this everyday—but its true yaani…and look at this… a very basic mobile is from 180 Egyptian pounds…a fancy internet capable phone like an Iphone and that Droid thing or the blackberry cost around 3000 pounds…and I will just talk about the so called middle class for a second…before revolution they said they would increase the minimum wage to 1200 pounds a month…right now it is about 800 pounds…800 pounds to feed a family of 4 maybe more? And then you go and buy an internet enabled phone which costs more than 3 months of your salary?.

Me: So how and why is this whole narrative evolving?

O: You mean all this internet stuff…well before he shut us out on Thursday…there was vibrant communication between a certain and very small class of society in terms of relative numbers…this is the class of people who have ALWAYS been absent and apathetic from the suffering of the Egyptian majority…the poor people…you know that was good…so maybe a little bit through twitter and all the apathetic students and professional class started communicating for the first time…

does anyone else find it odd that Bin Laden/Zwahiri et al have apparently been totally silent through all this?

It's not like these guys can call a press conference. Their "timely" proclamations usually come weeks or months after the fact.

Fuck the internet! I have not seen it since Thursday Go tell Mubarak that the peoples revolution does not his damn internet!

as always, Robert Fisk gets the story-interview no one else gets

Thanks a ton for that al-jazeera live feed! They are reporting that the state run Egyptian TV expects an announcement from Mubarak "soon".

lol wikipedia already updated w Mubarak's declining to run for reelection announcement

oh man been looking forward to this since thursday.

None of them ever seems to master a few simple survival techniques: Don't let the supreme leader's extended family go on shopping sprees; don't publicly spoil some firstborn as if the people can't wait for him, too, to be proclaimed from the balcony; don't display your personal photograph all over the landscape; don't claim more than, say, 75 percent of the vote in any "election" you put on.

^^^lolz. was just remarking to my wife the other day how odd/hilarious it was that none of these guys ever win less than 90% of a vote; like they're incapable of faking a realistic election result

the best is putin, whose crew would win even free elections but who fixes them anyway.

best line in the hitchens thing is

We argued that the supposed attractions of authoritarian "stability" are in fact illusory, since nothing is more volatile and unsafe than dictatorship, which lacks any self-critical method for learning from its mistakes.

although that redundant "self-critical" scuppers the prose. but he's ill.

Mordy and Aimless, you can also get it directly on their site: http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

US aid for democracy promotion and civil society in Egypt in 2010
= $24 million

US military aid to Egypt in 2010
= $1.3 billion

so i guess he's dead

http://www.othermeanspolitics.com/uploads/2/2/6/9/2269187/8858284.jpg

i feel like hitchens 'dictatorships fall therefor they must not be constructed v well' formulation doesnt really work irl - i mean mubaraks been in power for 30 years right - that a p good run - you think any elected official wouldnt take 30 years - i mean how longs the n korean regime been rolling - theyve got lol hueg pictures of themselves everywhere - everything in the world eventually fails youve got to look at it in relative terms

looks pretty stoic about it

kinda bemused imo

Hitchens' point is what I've been mulling over all week. What's more stable than a system, if not a particular govmt, that is widely perceived to be legitimate and responsive to real popular feeling? It could be a constitutional monarchy or a republic but it's likely to last longer than a dictatorship or an oligarchy.

ice cr?m, 30 years is pretty short according to the long view and it can be argued that w/o America as bogey-man and PRC as a benefactor, NKorea would have toppled already. Maybe the corollary to his point is that, yes, you can keep an authoritarian regime in power for ages but the more successful you are at it, the poorer and more brutalized the ppl, i.e., Burma or NK.

Obv, the key to any dictatorship is to prevent the mass of people from openly communicating their true thoughts about it. The moment these thoughts become openly available to everyone, the dictator falls.

BTW, the whole point of those thousands of grandiose portraits and statues of the Maximum Leader is to cow you into accepting your insignifigance in comparison and to project omnipresent superpotency. That's why they do it, fella. No mistake being made there.

I like this bit in Hitchens' essay:

None of them ever seems to master a few simple survival techniques: Don't let the supreme leader's extended family go on shopping sprees; don't publicly spoil some firstborn as if the people can't wait for him, too, to be proclaimed from the balcony; don't display your personal photograph all over the landscape; don't claim more than, say, 75 percent of the vote in any "election" you put on. And don't try to shut down social media: It will instantly alert even the most somnolent citizen to the fact that you are losing, or have lost, your grip.

liberal democracy may be more stable from the pov of maintaining a form of government for a long time - but thats not what dictators are after - they want a form that gives them personal power for the longest time

theyd just rather not be voted out of office

Now official. Mubarak won't run again, but intends to stay in power until new elections are held. I predict that minimal sop won't disperse the crowds in Cairo.

It does allow him a small fiction of being 'constitutional'.

tried pretty hard to play on the looting angle.

I noticed he was semaphoring to the military, too. Stuff about how 'I am a military man and therefore think only of my duty to my country.'

I noticed he was semaphoring to the military, too.

Well, that doesn't surprise me at all, plus the Republic was declared under Gen Naguib and then taken over by Gen Nasser.

Did this get posted yet:

http://www.conspiracyarchive.com/Articles/Obama_Muslim_Brotherhood.htm

http://grab.by/8IvM

welp

cool site polyphonic

serious hair dye action (xp)

seems kinda petty/silly to claim that a) his intention not to run has nothing to do with the protests and b) the protests are a result of outside forces trying to take over the gov't

seems like he might want to consider leaving the palace by Friday to avoid being strung up by an angry mob

mubarak being petty.... weird

b) the protests are a result of outside forces trying to take over the gov't

Well in his conception, the People are an outside force.

One of my closest friend's wife's parents are stuck in Egypt at the moment and cant get out. Theyre all freaking out big time.

just me or does mubarak look and sound like a boss in metal gear solid

apparently he's told friends he has a phd in obstinacy.

posting to move bookmark

at the end of this video - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12342611

xpost

order breaking down in Cairo, Anderson Cooper "punched 10 times in the head"

There's a live feed on msnbc.com of a huge rock battle between the protesters and the "regime supporters". Surreal. Really hope this isn't live footage of the beginning of a civil war.

Kristof just tweeted "Mubarak seems to be trying to stage a crackdown not with police or army, but with thugs. They are armed and brutal."

Somebody talk me off the cliff, my stomach is turning.

Al Jazeera is reporting that many of the Mubarak "supporters"/thugs are carrying police IDs. This is basically a Mubarak sponsored attack against the protesters.

Unsettling images... Horrible.

Mubarak "supporters" now showing up in Alexandria.

classic stuff

Army tanks have rolled into the square now...

tanksTRUCKS

Shots being fired again

jesus

Army has "no orders" to intervene and therefore are staying put, according to correspondent on Al Jazeera.

Mubarak looking to "gain momentum" by letting the chaos and rioting flame on :-(

If Mubarak keeps responding with violence, it'll be so sad. What can anyone else do? Urge them not to do it through diplomatic channels?

Mubarak seems to be deciding that he would rather be Ceaucescu than Hoenecker.

someone now reporting that 500 have been injured today and 300 killed (the latter figure they're unsure as to whether that's just today or an accumulated total)

Mubarak looking to "gain momentum" by letting the chaos and rioting flame on :-(

yeah, and punching it up a little. AJ reporter talking about how few ambulances there are.

xpost
It's 300 cumulatively, over the last 9 days.

ok "good"

Reports on the ground strongly suggest that Mubarak is doing far more than punching it up a little, or merely letting the chaos continue.

molotov cocktails flying all over the place

Mubarak seems to be deciding that he would rather be Ceaucescu than Hoenecker.

^^^this. without the army, this guy is gonna die

hey look Yemeni President also totally rattled

jimsciuttoABC. Egypt death toll now tops toll for Iran protests, which US and West widely condemned as an atrocity

tweeted about 30 minutes ago.

the parents of someone i know are trapped in cairo at the moment, and another girl's husband who was visiting his family is also stuck over there, and for now he's just helping out dudes from the neighborhood attempt to keep looters out of their area.

andersoncooper. Its getting really bad in front of egyptian museum
48 minutes ago

destruction of egyptian antiquities would be a tragic footnote to this bloodbath.

I thought the army had tanks in front of the Egyptian Museum, no?

searching for that now. . .

meanwhile, is this the video that began the uprising?

(apologies if it's been posted before)