OSCARS 2013

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/Could-The-Dark-Knight-Rises-The-Master-Be-Contenders-We-Prematurely-Predict-The-2013-Best-Picture-Oscar-Nominees

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/2012/03/02/could-bill-murray-and-keira-knightley-soon-be-oscar-winners-we-prematurely-predict-best-actor-and-actress-at-the-2013-academy-awards

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/are-leonardo-dicaprio-and-vanessa-redgrave-heading-for-the-oscars-predicting-best-supporting-actor-actress-2013

MILEY CYRUS 2032

HOLOGRAM PETER O'TOOLE 2040

Ugh, so not looking forward to the whining of Batman fanboys.

#fml

Presenting your host.........Seth MacFarlane.

Dude has a fourth Fox show on the way, too. Who did he sign his soul away to, and how do I summon that particular demon?

Ugh, so not looking forward to the whining of Batman fanboys.

Happily, that seems to have dropped off the Oscar radar.

Sadly, I am aware of the concept of an "Oscar radar."

Presenting your host.........Seth MacFarlane.

My brain read that as Seth Myers at first and I was all "good call," but then it registered the reality of the situation and now I'm sad.

haha who did people even think there could be oscar buzz for off dark knight rises? hardy? bale?

some deluded fans were thinking Nolan or Best Picture, stupidly hoping for a LOTR type thing where they "honor the franchise". i mean, i'm one of the bigger fans of Nolan's bat-movies on this board, but that's ridiculous.

yeah same here, pretty lol

I dunno, ROTK best picture win is pretty lol in retrospect. Not to mention, like, a whole slew of middlin'-to-awful movies that have won in my lifetime.

didn't the first two LOTR movies get best picture nominations before ROTK actually won it though. It made a certain amount of sense for it to win, I guess.

it's basically this thing where if something or someone gets nominated often enough, they feel obligated to make it/him/her win

Presenting your host.........Seth MacFarlane.

So, another reason to hate ceremony more than usual.

Funny your should all mention ROTK.

I've kind of hated Family Guy in a kneejerk way for a while (never actually seen more than a few minutes of it) but I found MacFarlane kind of charming on SNL. As long as he can repress the Family Guy voices, I think he might be OK.

Ted made a shitload of money after Fox passed on it, guy can do what he wants. He should co-host with Mark Wahlberg.

From that March list up top, looks like the new contenders will be Argo and Silver Linings. Dark Knight would've contended if it were half as good as the last one. John Hawkes sounds likely best actor nom for The Surrogate.

The 20 movies I think are probably at the top of the list right now:

Amour, Michael Haneke
Anna Karenina, Joe Wright
Argo, Ben Affleck
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Benh Zeitlin
Cloud Atlas, Tom Tykwer & the Wachowskis
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Flight, Robert Zemeckis
Hitchcock, Sacha Gervasi
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Peter Jackson
The Impossible, Juan Antonio Bayona
Life of Pi, Ang Lee
Lincoln, Steven Spielberg
The Master, Paul Thomas Anderson
Les Misérables, Tom Hooper
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson
Quartet, Dustin Hoffman
Rust and Bone, Jacques Audiard
The Sessions, Ben Lewin
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Zero Dark Thirty, Kathryn Bigelow

Keeping Cloud Atlas in there in lieu of doily voters' likely faves Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and Hyde Park on Hudson for fun. For now.

And what the hell ... the acting contenders according to reports from people who haven't seen the movies and are basing them on reports from people who OD'd on movies at TIFF:

Female Lead
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Viola Davis, Won't Back Down
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

Male Lead
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
Denzel Washington, Flight

Supporting Female
Amy Adams, The Master
Samantha Barks, Les Misérables
Pauline Collins, Quartet
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Supporting Male
Alan Arkin, Argo
Russell Crowe, Les Misérables
James D'Arcy, Hitchcock
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Ewan McGregor, The Impossible
Michael Pena, End of Watch

In other words, zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

I've kind of hated Family Guy in a kneejerk way for a while (never actually seen more than a few minutes of it) but I found MacFarlane kind of charming on SNL. As long as he can repress the Family Guy voices, I think he might be OK.

Pretty much this. His monologue was kind of intolerable, though, so that doesn't fill me with hope.

If Helen Mirren gets an Oscar nomination for playing Alma Reville, the movies will have officially eaten themselves.

Jeff Wells declareth:

"This is about as GenX and GenY-friendly a choice as you can imagine. McFarlane is the un-Billy Crystal -- a no-offense-but-fuck-you choice for all the squares and boomers out there who've never watched Family Guy."

The thing I wanna know is: how did the dude suddenly manage to segue from voice actor-hood and cartoon producer-dom into these big-time hosting gigs as Himself? Is there a precedent for a career like his that I'm not thinking of?

Hiring a big band helps.

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Arts/Arts_/Pictures/2012/8/28/1346152037722/Seth-MacFarlane-in-Prom-5-010.jpg

I've endured every Oscar telecast for at least the past decade, but I'm thinking I'll skip this one, just because of MacFarlane.

After averting my eyes from most of a Les Miz making-of teaser in a theater last weekend, I am proud to welcome it as the first contender of the year I will never see on pain of death.

Won't Back Down might count as that for me. Though reviews probably killed it.

Yeah, if Ms Davis gets nominated for that, we'll know Obamaism has successfully drowned labor in the bathtub.

Yes. That is precisely what we'll know.

IT IS, ACTUALLY.

I would like to read your tract regarding this matter.

NO, YOU WOULDN'T.

and bye Oscars

Getting this worked up over a movie you haven't seen that won't get nominated? Or that Obama will sill be sitting pres during K31th's next Oscar viewing party?

also of no interest

Well, it made about the same amount per screen as The Artist last weekend, so there's that...

won't back down looks vile

xp LOL

The thing I wanna know is: how did the dude suddenly manage to segue from voice actor-hood and cartoon producer-dom into these big-time hosting gigs as Himself? Is there a precedent for a career like his that I'm not thinking of?

― Old Lunch, Monday, October 1, 2012 4:12 PM (1 hour ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i think 10 years of encroaching ubiquity + being nominated for a Grammy for his album of old timey music + more and more onscreen appearances on talk shows, Comedy Central roasts, etc. had kinda set up McFarlane to be more of a celebrity and Ted's box office was the tipping point. Oscars probably realize what they're getting into but will still suffer some blowback when he says something vaguely "edgy" on the broadcast.

growing industry power + new yorker profile + big splash in movies this year + song and dance man + genuinely decent snl hosting gig + youth appeal (ie fans are under 50). he'll do a big song number, a big number where he puts himself in movie clips, and a ton of reference humor while introducing presenters. it will nowhere near as edgy as jon stewart nevermind chris rock.

well i put edgy in scarequotes after all! but honestly there were a couple moments in the SNL episode that were kind of stark reminders that his comedy can skew toward a "YEAH I SAID IT" politicallly incorrect schtick that feels a little out of place even on SNL and will be even moreso on the Oscars. i'm telling you, a joke that nobody would bat an eye at on Family Guy will make outraged Monday morning headlines, bet on it.

maybe a timely rebecca schaefer zing from mcfarlane

tbh considering the franco hathaway hosting you could probably abridge that to 'genuinely decent snl host + youth appeal' and that would be enough. that neil patrick harris is somehow never in the running seems some weird residue of anti-tv snobbery. kinda amazing that jay leno has never hosted considering how many times carson hosted and how often they've fallen back on 'fuck it just get a talk show host' (i mean ellen degeneres hosted once). this also seems like the sort of thing jerry seinfeld should be doing to occupy his time.

o i can see him cracking an abortion joke or an 'holocaust=oscar' remark but i don't think he'll say anything that might actually piss off anyone in that room, nothing on the level of chris rock telling hollywood to stop pretending jude law was a movie star or even letterman doing 'oprah uma'. what i would love is if they said they were gonna do a 'twitter oscars' and kept throwing the word twitter around but what it actually meant is the hosts were steve martin and albert brooks. on the bright side though maybe we get dan castellenata hosting the espys and tim and eric hosting the vmas next year.

over/under on "giggity"s during the telecast?

I will give the dude hella props if he never once references Family Guy (I will not be giving dude hella props).

this is kind of a make-or-break moment for MacFarlane as "actual celebrity" isn't it?

Here's a preview of what we can expect:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=_BdiS_WmAM4

all your EW charts and Jeff Wells blog summaries go here

Morbs was especially excited for me to share this one:

http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/11/16/oscar-race-prize-fighter-lincoln-argo-silver-linings-life-of-pi/

Kris Tapley keeps murmuring about Jessica Chastain inevitably assuming the front-runner position once people see 0D30.

There's a major vacuum at the top of that category, so if she's even remotely good, she'll be a frontrunner.

I have to say, I don't completely understand how Beasts of the Southern Wild is an Oscar contender. I haven't seen it yet, but it just seems so far removed from Hollywood. It reminds me of something like George Washington: tiny budget, no-name cast w/kids in big roles, regional color, critical acclaim. Is the difference between the two simply that Beasts is a Fox Searchlight release? (NB: I'm not saying I don't think it deserves its buzz; I just wouldn't have predicted it.)

Haven't forced myself to watch it yet, either, but I'm guessing it's closer to Slumdog Millionaire than George Washington?

OK, that's a useful analogy, but still: Danny Boyle.

George Washington had limited release + budget of 42,000
Beasts had a pretty wide release, huge Sundance buzz, budget of over a million, (almost 2 it looks like)--seemed like an Oscar lock from the get-go

excuse me, seemed like a lock for contention

Also seems like a functional amalgamation of elements that, in isolation, were too specific for Oscar voters but in this combination (When the Levees Broke + George Washington + Where the Wild Things Are + I dunno Pedro Costa?) work.

I hadn't realized it played in 300+ theatres. So that makes a bit more sense. The only other films to have as big (or bigger) of a release and a Metascore of 85+ are Lincoln, Argo, and The Master.

Ebert always throws a weird film or two that nobody else is discussing into his Oscar predix. This time he's musing on the prospect of End of Watch for Picture and Richard Gere (in Arbitrage) for Actor.

http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/2012/11/and_the_nominees_are.html

BOTSW got wide release in South Florida (I saw it at a multiplex, packed screening) in July, which we don't see often for "small" films.

Among the contenders I have seen, the most warmly-loved by moviegoers seems to be Ang Lee's "Life of Pi." In many seasons as a critic, I can't remember a film more universally applauded. I wrote a blog entry about it, and my often dubious readers embraced it all but unanimously.

this looked like a piece of shit

I watched it. SOOOOOOOO much god stuff.

gere was widely liked in 'trage wasnt he?

i was already sick of Life o pi after having to endure the trailer/commercials 9001 times. no way am i seeing that

There are tons of animals in it, and as a cuteoverloadist that helped me make it through

The trailer reminded me of

http://images.mylot.com/userImages/images/postphotos/509246.jpg

gere was widely liked in 'trage wasnt he?

Yeah, he got good notices for sure, but he's not getting a nomination over Day-Lewis, Phoenix, Washington, Hawkes, Jackman, and Cooper unless he starts winning crix awards.

Kind of feel like Life of Pi has the Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close slot sewn up.

haha yeah

I don't remember thinking Extremely...Close would've been improved much by smoking up beforehand.

A supporting nod could go to William H. Macy, as his parish priest.

This ... is almost boring enough to actually happen.

god is bradley cooper really gonna get a nom

Maybe. I don't think Phoenix is nearly the lock everyone else does.

he's gotta get a nom nom nom

Yes. He's fat.

Kind of feel like Life of Pi has the Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close slot sewn up.

― Sax Blatterday (jaymc), Tuesday, November 27, 2012 11:12 PM (Yesterday) Bookmark

Wait for The Impossible

BEVERLY HILLS, CA – The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences today announced that 10 films remain in the running in the Visual Effects category for the 85th Academy Awards®.

The films are listed below in alphabetical order:

“The Amazing Spider-Man”
“Cloud Atlas”
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“John Carter”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
“Prometheus”
“Skyfall”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”

Figured The Impossible would get in there a la Hereafter.

guessing life of pi will win that one (haven't seen it but the teaser was impressive)

In my opinion the best visual effects are those that you don't notice, and Life of Pi had several effects that looked pretty bad to me. Would go with Prometheus or Skyfall or TDKR or Avengers over it.

Whatever blocks The Hobbit.

s'alright
s'alright

is samsara not going to get any noms

104 eligible Original Scores (nix to Moonrise Kingdom)

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/academy-reveals-104-eligible-original-scores-for-2012-oscar-race

http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/rules/reminderlist.html

"Lawless," Nick Cave and Warren Ellis, composers

Oh and

West of Memphis," Nick Cave and Warren Ellis, composers

Foreign Shortlist:

Austria, "Amour," Michael Haneke, director
Canada, "War Witch," Kim Nguyen, director
Chile, "No," Pablo Larraín, director
Denmark, "A Royal Affair," Nikolaj Arcel, director
France, "The Intouchables," Olivier Nakache and Eric Toledano, directors
Iceland, "The Deep," Baltasar Kormákur, director
Norway, "Kon-Tiki," Joachim Rønning and Espen Sandberg, directors
Romania, "Beyond the Hills," Cristian Mungiu, director
Switzerland, "Sister," Ursula Meier, director

wow i've been saying for years someone should do a film about the Kon-Tiki-- is it playing in the US anywhere?

It has to!

no info on imdb

looks like a US release is planned for sometime next year

http://www.deadline.com/2012/11/weinstein-company-acquires-rights-to-kon-tiki/

e-voting broken lolz

http://www.salon.com/2013/01/02/concerns_over_e_voting_push_oscar_nomination_deadline_back_by_24_hours/

Yeah, I've got my fingers crossed that the computerized system leads to more than a few octogenarian voters begging off voting this year.

I thought you wanted Lincoln to win? despite your sight-unseen love for my least fave Amerikan propaganda vessel.

The oldies can submit paper ballots.

Betting today's oldies would probably prefer Argo. It's sort of like that "'70s, '80s and today" radio station tagline.

I wonder if the online system was set up to discourage older voters.

oh, the deadline for requesting paper was in December.

If it gets Moonrise or even The Master into BP ahead of Argo and Les Shiz, OK.

they figured since Borgnine died everyone younger is tweetin'

If it gets Moonrise or even The Master into BP ahead of Argo and Les Shiz, OK.

I don't know if younger voters are necessarily any more discerning.

Forget Moonrise, I'm gunning for an Oogieloves bid.

I saw the Oogieloves movie at Target this week! It might have momentum behind it.

Nathaniel's final pics. He sez Maggie Smith, Eddie Redmayne, Helen Hunt, and Kidman are in, McConaughey and Phoenix likely out.

Redmayne seems a truly no-guts-no-glory pic, to use the term SS fixates on. Also don't think Django votes are splitting three ways but, rather, two. Could see both Waltz and DiCaprio getting in over DeNero or maybe Arkin.

(Hah, I'm now seeing Nat explicitly calls Redmayne his NGNG pick.)

Man, I'd love to see Jennifer Ehle in supporting actress, but I think she's got the longest odds of his on-the-bubble candidates.

(In that category, at least.)

Unless Dowd scores a coup, I'm likely not going to be thrilled with anyone in that category. Swap in the entire female cast of Cosmopolis in my opinion.

not zackly sure why The Master fell off so dramatically from its This Year's Tree of Life start.

I lasted 25 minutes w/ Compliance.

Probably because it's nowhere near as good as Tree of Life.

we disagree there but it's the Oscars, honeybunch

No, it's life we disagree on.

Spielberg and Aldrich are part of life!

Pretty sure one of those two are dead.

hmmm, R.K.O. says The Intouchables is getting nominated.

http://www.slantmagazine.com/house/2013/01/oscar-2013-nomination-predictions-picture/

Jackie Weaver!

http://oscar.go.com/nominees

Silver LInings Playbook first film in ages in which we get nominees for every acting category.

Amour housed.

Bigelow omitted from Best Director, which means Spielberg gets it.

Will Tippin has been nominated for an Oscar - there is no god.

@Glenn__Kenny: If I said "Emmanuelle Riva" to any random film blogger this time last year they would have responded "Gesundheit." Fuckers.

nice to see Paul Epworth get some due.

Just realized John Hawkes got snubbed.

It has been 15 years since Spielberg last won, but that's only thing I really see potentially getting in the way of a Silver Linings Playbook sweep (remember when As Good As It Gets took the tops?). I wonder if Harvey Weinstein's gonna be soft on Lincoln since he's tight with DDL, but I could almost see him pulling some "Django vs Lincoln" shit to try and shame voters and send them to his dance flick.

a SLP vs Lincoln would be schizophrenia vs depression.

SLP is the new as Good As It Gets, isn't it? :(

i think it's jones vs deniro for supporting too. Both have trophies, but it's been awhile and while jones has consistently been good in stuff, they might want to encourage deniro to stop doing obvious horseshit and do less obvious horseshit like SLP

Supporting actor category less apt than supp actress to throw those curveballs though.

"he said, biting nails furiously"

is it even a curveball, though? all five have trophies already - arkin isn't going to get TWO lovable scamp ones, waltz already has one for a tarantino movie, and hoffman's nod is just a "we still like you, bro" move. Jones is definitely the fave but DeNiro's a close second.

A curveball in the way the supporting actress category often is, I mean. It's usually the category to offer one upset.

someone tell me about Quvenzhané Wallis

like, is it okay if I steal her and raise her as my own daughter or does she have a family already

I don't disagree with Bobby in second place.

dan copy and pasted her name from Google to get the z and accent in the right place

SLP and Lincoln are both up for Adapted Screenplay so that should probably forecast the winner

lol no, I c+p'd from the official nomination list

also first thing that happens after I adopt her is that her name is getting changed to something like Alexis or Denise

Bigelow omitted from Best Director

*does little dance*

Just realized John Hawkes got snubbed.

he's quite OK in that, but it is a standard disability soap, except set in Berkeley.

three ways i see this going

best supporting actress: hathaway/field/weaver (and if weaver takes it, it's over)

best supporting actor: jones/deniro (and if deniro takes it, it's over)

best actress: lawrence (and if lawrence doesn't take it, it may not be over)

best actor: cooper/day-lewis/jackman (and if jackman takes it, UH OH)

best picture: winner of best adapted screenplay or LES MIS IN A SHOCKING LOL WELL THAT'S HOLLYWOOD

def true about Weaver winning as bellwether. I'd be genuinely shocked if Lawrence beats Chastain though, only because Oscar only tolerates pretty neurotics in supporting actress turns.

nice to see Paul Epworth get some due.

― piscesx, Thursday, January 10, 2013 8:57 AM (41 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

what can i say, he makes me laugh

croup wtf are you smokin', even with 2 wins already DDL is getting best actor

also good for Joaquin, and he should stay home as a fuck-you anyway

Joaquin my favorite of the BA's but he has no chance.

Waltz now joins Hoffman in the "we'll be seeing you in this category often" category

croup wtf are you smokin', even with 2 wins already DDL is getting best actor

one of harvey weinstein's cigars

Other recent acting four-for-four noms: Reds, Network, Guess Who's Coming to Dinner.

maura just pointed out on Twitter that the lead singer from stellastar* was nominated for Best Short Film

i will say if field takes supporting than DDL is a lock

if i had to do a pool today i'd probably go Hathaway/Jones/Lawrence/DDL/Lincoln, but I hear that weinstein cackle in the distance

Jabba the Hutt doesnt 'cackle'

he's quite OK in that, but it is a standard disability soap, except set in Berkeley.

Which makes it an extra shock to be overlooked by the Oscars, no? Maybe it wasn't MOR enough?

http://www1.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/David+O+Russell+Harvey+Weinstein+63rd+Annual+9VpSI4iTC5Al.jpg

you might have been a good director, but now you're bantha fodder

whoa directors, leaving out Biggy and Ben Affect, cool, then u shit in the punchbowl w/ Haneke.

how does "shit in the punchbowl" translate in German?

"The last time Austria and Germany got together and produced something, it was Hitler...but this is much better." -- Seth McFarlane on Best Foreign Language Feature nomination of Amour

Good luck watching him for 3-1/2 hrs, everybody

Bummed about Matthew McC and Ann Dowd, but whatever because THEY KICKED HELEN MIRREN TO THE CURB!!!

DGA to Oscar ratio is 2/5; fairly shocking.

http://www.slate.com/articles/arts/culturebox/2013/01/down_with_argo_ben_affleck_s_iran_hostage_movie_is_the_worst.html

did Skyfall get more nominations than ZDT?

Also, the way I see it right now:

Lincoln
Spielberg
DDL
Lawrence
Jones
Hathaway
Kushner, et al
Haneke (a la Pedro Almodovar auteur token screenplay win)

xpost no, the same

also what is it with you (and others) and Ann Dowd? It's a hatefully drawn character.

That's how it's drawn; that's not how she executes it.

sorry, meant to type "You're a hatefully drawn character."

Christ, you.

tot missed that Haneke got a writing nomination. Surely Foreign Film will be enough?

I wonder if Leo will attend, looking forlorn again:

http://i.imgur.com/9MHhU.gif

Foreign film will go to something different, no doubt. They still have that inscrutable committee deciding, right? I'm guessing No or Kon-Tiki.

always the ring bearer, never the groom xpost

I think there's going to be enough of a backlash about the Bigelow dis that Boal will win for screenplay. maybe.

What tangled webs.

The observations I posted in my Oscar notes blog:

– Zero Dark Thirty, thought to be the soft frontrunner going into the nominations this morning, took a pretty sizeable hit thanks to its director Kathryn Bigelow getting snubbed. Actually, the biggest snubs of the morning came in that category, with Hollywood’s golden boy Ben Affleck and fellow DGA nominee Tom Hooper (Les Miserables) also missing out on bids. Big shakeups there.

– Most surprising showing in the major categories: Amour. Emmanuelle Riva was expected to probably show up in the best actress lineup as well as the best foreign film category, but it made major showings elsewhere, with appearances in best picture, best director and best screenplay. Somewhere Michael Haneke’s frown just got turned upside down, if only ruefully/ironically. I am relishing the thought of him getting the obligatory Pedro Almodovar token win in the screenplay category.

– Speaking of Emmanuelle Riva, at 85 years old, she is officially the oldest nominee in best actress ever. Conversely, Quvenzhane Wallis is the category’s youngest contender ever at 9 years old (though she was actually 6 when the movie was shot). Pretty impressive spread.

– Silver Linings Playbook becomes the first movie to get nominations in all four acting categories since Reds in 1981. Harvey Weinstein spent his money strategically. Two other movies, however, did get nods in three of the four acting categories this morning: Lincoln (as expected) and The Master (which was snubbed in every other category).

– Whoever wins best supporting actor this year, it won’t be their first time on the podium. Every single one of them has won an Oscar before. Currently pouring one out for snubee Matthew McConaughey’s g-string.

– Minnesota native John Hawkes got snubbed in best actor for his role in The Sessions. It was a baity part, but if I’m to be totally honest, it was no Teardrop. If it’s Joaquin Phoenix that he made room for, I’m cool with that.

– In below-the-line categories, the biggest shock of the morning was the dismissal of The Intouchables in best foreign film. Never has a movie seemed more tailor-made for the category.

– Maggie Simpson is now an Oscar nominee. Good job, Maggie Simpson.

Wonder whether the speed of Boal/Bigelow rewriting their movie after OBL's assassination earns him points with other screenwriters. (Been reading articles painting him as interestingly insufferable, though.)

Surprised The Master didn't get a screenplay nom.

Also insufferable to many but otm last year with all major categories months in advance (before The Artist had opened in the U.S.), Bret Easton Ellis predicted a few months ago on Twitter that Silver Linings would win Best Picture, Actor, and Actress.

i wonder if taking dictation from the guvmint earns Boal points with other screenwriters

I went to see "Argo" a few weeks back, but I got a call 20 minutes from the end that my daughter had thrown up in school, so I had to leave early. What did I miss? Did all the hostages die? They all died, didn't they?

Does "Silver Linings ..." have any sort of momentum at all? At least people actually saw those turds "As Good as it Gets" and "Little Miss Sunshine."

The most I see Silver Linings mustering is two acting wins instead of one. But, yeah, we'll see how hard Weinstein hits Lincoln.

yeah the fact that lincoln has done way bigger box office than silver linings does benefit it

Little Miss grossed $60 M domestically, much of that after its AA attention I'm sure. (I've still avoided that turd btw.) Silver Linings is at 34 M now.

lol, forgot that shakespeare in love beat saving private ryan...it's a REMATCH

Weinstein really honed in on the acting categories this year. He netted 8 of the 20.

Have to think winning BP is going to be an uphill battle, though, to say the least.

Rick Ross snubbed :-(

Can't say I actually favor anyone in best supporting actress. If she didn't handicap herself with that horrible accent, I'd be rooting for Helen Hunt.

Others are pretty easily: Phoenix, Riva, Jones.

wait rick ross was a presumptive nominee? did he have something in les mis?

I assume the accent (and the previous win) is why she was nominated

xp

Rick Ross made the Best Song long list, as did R. Kelly:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5_mJ6wTHBU

Nathaniel confirms: "Weaver's nomination makes Silver Linings Playbook the first film since Warren Beatty's classic Reds (1981) to win acting nominations in all categories."

both films noted for their resemblance to "Everybody Loves Raymond"

Bradley Cooper can speak French.

No, Chile
A Royal Affair, Denmark
War Witch, Canada

How are these? Worth digging for?

Only seen A Royal Affair, and it's okay but nothing great.

tarantino tantrum just now on Channel 4 news: Perhaps he was pissed he didn't get a nom.
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/quentin-tarantino-tells-interviewer-you-cant-make-me-dance-im-not-a-monkey-8446660.html
tbf krishnan was being really arsey.

Bill Hicks • 40 minutes ago

Tarantino has a small penis. He has a chode, which is why he grossly overcompensates with violence and anger. This is why he's lashing out in this interview -- his small chode.

That qt interview reminds me of one Eddie Van Halen did in 1986: when he felt intellectually threatened over some pretty basic shit, he lashed out, and accused the interviewer of trying to make him look or sound stupid.

Oscar nomination snubs include Affleck, Bigelow and 'Skyfall'

LA Times, wtf? ppl expected it to get a Best Picture nomination? Isn't 5 a record for a Bond film?

It got a PGA nom. It has v. good chances with cinematography (shanghai scene) and song.

I didn't know Roger Deakins was 0-for-9 at the Oscars. Still this would be like a "Departed" win for him. Kaminski may be tough to beat if Lincoln is BP.

So far cinematography precursors have been fairly equally shared between Deakins and Life of Pi. Both deserving.

and accused the interviewer of trying to make him look or sound stupid.

"Why would I do that when you already doing such a good job on your own?"

"I’m asking you interesting questions." Straight trollin'.

How are these? Worth digging for?

Haven't seen any, but the trailer for No looks great.

Not sure where to post this, but I would love to see this film:

http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affairs/middle-east-north-africa/276605-iran-plans-response-to-argo

Here's hoping it's helmed by Asghar Farhadi, so it won't have anything as egregious as plane chase scene.

can only imagine haneke feels a bit bitter, like he's getting a pat on the back for finally playing by old man oscar's rules, grr!

i hope he tears a picture of seth mcfarlane in half after his acceptance speech

The buzz among the snobbiest of my Twitter follows is that No is the class of the lineup.

No Oscar for Deakins? Wow. If he weren't insane/not willing to play ball, I imagine Christopher Doyle would have managed one by now, too.

Saw a local review of "Amour" that described Riva, ironically I thought, as "ageless."

i hope he tears a picture of seth mcfarlane in half after his acceptance speech

fixed.

tarantino tantrum just now on Channel 4 news: Perhaps he was pissed he didn't get a nom.
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/quentin-tarantino-tells-interviewer-you-cant-make-me-dance-im-not-a-monkey-8446660.html
tbf krishnan was being really arsey.

― danzig, Thursday, January 10, 2013 2:54 PM (3 hours ago) Bookmark

almost every interviewer has been asking him that same hacky question for 20 years with no variation or nuance, i get why QT snapped

I have a feeling that if I were a famous director on the interview circuit, I would turn into a big dick after, like, two interviews. It must be numbing, especially when your interviewing is being a smug prat.

There's a famous story in the "Devil's Candy" book where De Palma, having been ground down by relentless inane interviews, suddenly springs to life when asked about his socks.

Deakins was all set to win for Old Country and then he got double nominated that year.

I have a feeling that if I were a famous director on the interview circuit, I would turn into a big dick after, like, two interviews. It must be numbing, especially when your interviewing is being a smug prat.

while i'm sympathetic to QT and the interviewer was definitely a mega-dick, he also seemed a little "on edge" from the get-go

That interview is compelling and not especially fun. Personally, I think Tarantino comes across terribly--he's like when the one Gibb brother would stomp out if an interviewer brought up Saturday Night Fever. So he always gets asked the same questions; someone might be inclined to say he should feel fortunate there are still people who want to interview him based on the lingering greatness of three films from 15-20 years ago.

someone who missed that his recent films are doing even better in the box office

He’s a name brand, now, true enough. I don’t think you have to look very far to find artists whose popularity is inversely proportional to the quality of their art. But I can’t get too far into this argument: I (intentionally) haven’t seen his last two films. (And suspect I’d still find him petulant in the interview even if I were to love them.)

(Actually, Scorsese's adjusted figures aren't as screwy as the unadjusted ones. But you've still got Cape Fear, The Aviator, and Shutter Island ahead of Taxi Driver and Goodfellas, Raging Bull middle of the pack, and The King of Comedy down near the bottom.)

he's definitely petulant in the interview, blowing smoke up his own ass and then getting cranky when he realizes the journalist is trying to corner him. but saying he's coasting on old glories fame-wise would be nothing but pique even if you saw the later stuff (and i prefer the 90s biz myself)

Not coasting, that’s not what I mean. It’s more like...groping; I see a guy who had a window of a few years in the ‘90s when his films were treated as events, and they deserved to be treated that way. He’s now a name brand, and his films are still treated as events by the machinery of the industry. But for a number of critics and former fans (like me), they shouldn’t be, not anymore. My guess is--maybe I’m totally wrong--he feels that disconnect, and when he finds himself subjected to that kind of interview at this particular moment, he gets defensive. I bet he wouldn’t have reacted that way if you plunked him into the same interview circa Jackie Brown; I bet he would have taken it in stride and had some fun.

this is a pretty impressive observation to make about critical & commercial hits you haven't seen

I bet he wouldn’t have reacted that way if you plunked him into the same interview circa Jackie Brown; I bet he would have taken it in stride and had some fun.

― clemenza, Friday, January 11, 2013 12:16 AM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGQaJcwAtpU

"no i did not see the emperor's new clothes but...maybe i'm totally wrong...but i think he knows he's really naked"

i'm under the impression yelling at people he doesn't respect is tarantino's idea of having fun

he seems friendly 2 me

She does seem appreciably more hostile than the British interviewer, who seemed to me to like Django, but point taken.

I just haven't been able to bring myself to see the last two. I see the commercials, think about how disappointing the Kill Bills were after Jackie Brown, and I stay clear. (From the reviews I've read, I'd quibble with "critical hits"--not in the sense that Pulp Fiction was, anyway.)

dude, bro, watch inglourious basterds. just check it out.

both inglorious and django are getting raves, though you've probably forgotten the occasional slams and dismissals pulp got, too. and it's kind of silly when he's complaining that he's been answering a question for 20 years to say that he'd take it in stride if you brought it up 15 years ago.

I don't know--maybe in the wake of something like Newtown, any kind of questions that broach the subject of cause-and-effect push a button with him. Maybe that's behind his defensiveness. I just found it quite excessive for such relatively mild questions.

It's on the shelf, has been for a while. It keeps Shutter Island company.

i bet you'll like it dude!

i think he's always felt slightly attacked by these questions, and probably is even more defensive because of newtown yeah

it's also possible he was jacked up

re: the quibble, if rotten tomatoes is some kind of barometer - pulp and reservoir have ratings around 95% (and that includes reviews of 20th anniversary DVDs and whatnot), django and inglorious around 89%

though if we're going to imagine that tarantino slaps paparazzi because he knows his career has been a lie for a decade, i guess we can fantasize that these critics are afraid of fanboy assaults

I'm sure in the aggregate, the reviews are good. But it's easy to find much more ambivalent reviews--I just read David Thomson's a day or two ago.

http://www.tnr.com/article/books-and-arts/111648/django-unchained-all-talk-nothing-say

I'm suggesting uncertainty, not a lie. For a 50-year-old filmmaker to be less sure himself than he was at 30 would hardly seem unusual.

fine, it's possible tarantino's acting like his usual manic self because he's increasingly insecure, and it's possible that these movies you haven't seen are only popular because of his brand and machine.

All right, Ramblers--let's get ramblin'.

lol guess what other movie the new republic was ambivalent about: http://www.tnr.com/article/film/shooting#

Meanwhile, however, what's most bothersome about Pulp Fiction is its success. This is not to be mean-spirited about Tarantino himself; may he harvest all the available millions. But the way that this picture has been so widely ravened up and drooled over verges on the disgusting. Pulp Fiction nourishes, abets, cultural slumming.

So much of what inundates us these days--in film, in various kinds of pop music--is calculated grunginess, of climate and temper. So much of what goes on in (what I hear of) rock music revels in the lower end of every kind of spectrum, grungy ideas and diction delivered by grungy people. So much of modern film seems to compete in grunginess. Very little of this stuff seems to have anything to do with the lives actually lived by its avid public. Most of it seems designed as guided tours of an underworld for people otherwise placed--career-oriented students, job-holding others. Escapism always has been one function of theater and film, and for ages it was cloyingly pretty-pretty. Boy, has the pendulum swung.

kill bill flix are imo good but def his weakest. inglourious basterds is arguably his best.

I'd forgotten Kauffmann reviewed PF--I've got it in one of his books. He does praise most of the acting. The only thing I'd say is that Thomson speaks well of PF in his Django review ("artful structure," "deeply intriguing"), and seems to be someone who'd be predisposed to like Django. I've read a lot of Kauffmann over the years, and PF is generally not his kind of film. But fair point.

I step away and this has become another Tarantino thread

it's ILX.

don't watch inglourious basterds, clem, it's foul shit.

i wouldn't necessarily recommend it myself. and i'll probably save django for dvd

If it's not already common wisdom, Basterds > Django

Oh and ...

Ugh, so not looking forward to the whining of Batman fanboys.

Got scratch. No one cared.

I think even most Batman fanboys were not particularly impressed by the Dark Knight Rises.

you really should at least watch Basterds clemenza

Anyone who sat through Reservoir Dogs ought to give everything else QT does a chance.

I'd agree with that. Everything of his is worth watching at least once, really, and if all of his post "Jackie Brown" pastiche output is sort of incoherent, there are enough moments of sustained brilliance to justify the two hours or so. Personally, I think "Kill Bill," taken as a whole, might actually be my fave of the later stuff. It's pretty lively, if in love with itself.

I've enjoyed all of QT's movies to some degree but Basterds really was a return to form for him IMO. Love that movie.

You've all convinced me--will watch IB over the weekend. I'll make sure to post on the relevant thread if I have anything to say.

So what do we think is the best explanation for the Bigelow/Affleck snubs?

1. Political backlash

2. Personal bias (Bigelow as a woman, Affleck as a pretty-boy actor)

3. Desire to spread the wealth among deserving candidates, perhaps mixed with
3a. a faulty assumption that Bigelow and Affleck were already locks and thus didn't need help

4. Shortened voting schedule, leading to
4a. less time to catch up with screeners (particularly the late-released ZDT)
4b. an inability to use the DGA slate as a guide

5. Harvey Weinstein (nudging Russell in)

IMO, 1 and 4a don't make sense to me since the films still landed expected nominations elsewhere. 2 might be true in Bigelow's case, though Oscar is usually kind to handsome actor-turned-directors like Affleck (cf. Costner, Clooney). The others offer varying degrees of plausibility.

With Affleck I think the Jenny from the Block video is to blame:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dly6p4Fu5TE

Bigelow has already won an Oscar, which sort of disproves 2 but might be why she didn't get a directing nom. If they wanted to punish the movie for its politics, Boal wouldn't have been nominated (though clearly there are more writing slots so maybe that's bullshit).

Russell getting in was a surprise, but with four acting noms it's they probably saw his work there as drawing out great performances so maybe it makes sense.

Regarding your first point, which I probably should've included: I think winning an Oscar is sometimes an impediment to further wins but not to further nominations.

Bigelow: no idea why she was snubbed.
Affleck: his direction is merely adequate (see also: his acting).

and that disqualifies you from getting an Oscar?

Generally, no. But this year, apparently so.

Of course, with ten best picture noms and only five best director noms, what used to be odd - films nominated for best picture but not director - are now the norm.

I think it helps to look at the people who actually were nominated

Michael Haneke – Amour
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild

Bigelow and Affleck both have Oscars, and Affleck got his when he was ten years prettier (albeit for writing, but still behind the camera). Hollywood's also thrown director trophies to pretty boys like Mel Gibson, Kevin Costner and Clint Eastwood. Four of the 5 directed best picture nominees and two of them were always front runners. So basically the message is that more people liked Beasts Of Southern Wild and Life Of Pi more than Zero Dark Thirty and Argo. While I did not see the former pair, I did see the latter and was not particularly impressed. If anyone was nudged on, it was haneke, and well

i mean if anything, it's awesome that haneke got a nod instead of two movies about CIA agents looking anxious while middle eastern music plays

I think someone needs to get to the bottom of why Knuckleball isn't up for best documentary. I mean, c'mon, Wilbur Wood--I thought he had lots of friends in the Academy.

Robert Redford quintessential pretty boy to get Best Director trophy.

Forgotten but worth mentioning cuz he was nominated: Paul Newman for Rachel Rachel

Redford should have won for Quiz Show.

same year as Tarantino

i prefer it to PF but i suppose it's the screenplay that makes it so good.

(we've discussed this before i know)

@Michael_Haneke
on my roof drinkin tequila and screemn the lyrix 2 'i got 5 on it' but im changin 'on it' to 'oscar nominayshuns' lol #friday

Did anyone see Life of Pi or Beasts? Magical symbolic journeys aren't usually my thing and we didn't get screeners - is there a reason not to be glad their directors got nods over the CIA thrillers?

no

Beasts is all indie shakey-cam shit but I guess he got a good performance out of the little girl. Life of Pi has a pretty jaw-dropping hour and a bit, but the opening act and final scenes are pretty terrible. ZDT deserved it for directing, but Argo didn't.

was bored by Beasts, a tourism segment for post-Katrina Southern states suitable for Epcot.

There's some good stuff in Beasts (mostly the sets/design, which reminded me of Where the Wild Things Are but better and 1/90th the cost), but yeah it's pretty bad.

beasts isnt really 'bad' its just nothing spesh

I wouldn't say Life of Pi has a jaw-dropping HOUR, but the shipwreck sequence is stunning.

Pi >>>> Beasts

life of piss

Piss > Beasts

Well, life of Pissing, technically.

Quiz Show was a "TV movie," albeit a fairly good one. Turturro's character/performance was cringily one-note (the ethnic loudmouth).

Affleck got his when he was ten years prettier

Ben Affleck is so much better looking now than when he won his writing Oscar (it was 15 years ago btw); I thought Hollywood's barely-out-of-the-cradle standards of beauty only applied to women....

Affleck has never been a box-office star on the scale of Redford, Eastwood, or even Costner at his peak. When he had his shot, he was blamed for killing one potential franchise (that 'Jack Ryan' BS) and made stuff like Gigli. It's entirely fitting that after making a very good directing debut, and an OK second film, he gets a bunch of AA attention for his worst of the three,

http://www.davidmixner.com/2013/01/why-the-oscar-nomination-for-how-to-survive-the-plague-is-so-important.html

xpost I'd say they're all on a roughly equal middle-of-the-road level; Gone Baby Gone not as good as you remember

"ten years prettier" was a joke, he's quite handsome today yes

gone baby gone had great parts but casey affleck's speech at the climax is torture

I wouldn't say Life of Pi has a jaw-dropping HOUR, but the shipwreck sequence is stunning.

I really liked a lot of the night time starscape stuff, and the acid pools on the island, but yes, very few images come close to that shot of Pi underwater looking at the submerged ship.

argo easily the worst of affleck's three though, no doubt

aside from any political distastefulness, i think the TRUE STORY aspects of ZDT and Argo were used to excuse a relative lack of character work compared to Hurt Locker and The Town

The Town's character work was done at Warner Brothers in 1938.

haha oh it's corn for sure but the actors were given the chance to sell it

Oh yeah, the whale leaping over the lifeboat was pretty o_0 too.

Renner aping Cagney in his death scene is the best thing in all of Affleck's films.

Since Les Mis is the only of the BP noms I haven't seen, I feel kind of obligated to trudge along to it next week.

if affleck doesn't go overly pretentious or sour, and manages another bit of old school hollywood fun with little authentic touches and reputable performers he'll get his trophy next time

lol apparently affleck won best director at the Critics' Choice awards last night, all the more reason people will think he's "due" next round

he made a cute lil afflecky speech about "THIS is the award that really matters anyway haha not really"

I saw that. I had never heard of the Critics' Choice awards before.

i envy you

Bennie is better looking now, no.question, but GBG is the only one of his auteur efforts I'd watch again, and he's responsible for Morgan Freeman 's worst perf to date. That should count for something.

Hollywood has done so well forgetting its meh potboiler tradition that his films get overpraised.

worse than invictus? dreamcatcher??

Misread that as "meth potboiler."

I saw that. I had never heard of the Critics' Choice awards before.

I hadn't realized that Critics' Choice Awards were given by the Broadcast Film Critics Association. Apparently they branded their year-end prizes as the Critics' Choice Awards a few years ago and now have a cable-TV ceremony and everything.

It's not cable TV anymore! They've risen to the high esteem of the CW.

The real question is who will win the Nickelodeon Kids Choice Awards. I can't wait for Michael Haneke to get slimed!

Yeah, but first he'll have to say "I don't know," which I don't know...

can Mama be Chastain's Norbit?

More like Lawrence will be her Arkin.

Americans among hostages seized in Algeria

sooooooo

couple good jokes

http://www.vulture.com/2013/01/david-edelstein-oscars-anxiety.html

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/are-hollywood-awards-gender-out-touch

There would be riots in the streets of West Hollywood if they ever dropped Best Supporting Actress imo.

Always fun to see them all ranked: http://www.slantmagazine.com/house/2013/01/ranking-oscars-2013-nominees/

I'm much higher on: Wreck-It Ralph, Amour, Death of a Shadow, and that's about it

I'm much more down on: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Maggie Simpson, The Sessions, The Hobbit

I've seen only 13 of those, and I'm thrilled with that.

LOL, I've only missed 12. Always get behind the 8 ball on feature length docs and foreign films.

Not planning on catching Mirror Mirror or The Pirates! either.

is there going to be the theatrical release of nom'd shorts that we've seen in the past few years?

Yep, in theaters this weekend, I think.

On balance, I think the documentaries are probably the strongest and live action the weakest, but it's not a particularly distinguished field this year.

List is far too kind to SLP, Pi and Beasts for sure.

Pi is the one of those three I'm kind of soft on.

My rankings for the three short film categories:

Fresh Guacamole
Death of a Shadow
Adam and Dog
Kings Point
Open Heart
Redemption
Buzkashi Boys
Mondays at Racine
Asad
Inocente
Paperman
Curfew
Maggie Simpson in "The Longest Daycare"
Head Over Heels
Henry

"Hollywood's Oscar-bait movies have gotten to be so unwatchable and look so bad that those mid-90s "Tom Hanks wants an Oscar!" films that got served up every year, and that we took for granted at the time, the most mediocre of those movies would be like a revelation compared to what we've been getting lately. Castaway looked like a typical 7/10 at the time but move it to a Pitchfork 8.5 now, which is good enough for my Best New Lonely January Weekend Viewings."

conversation with a friend

i just buy XANGO® at $35/bottle

http://www.xango.com/products/xango-juice

oops wrong thread

probably tastes better than Oscar bait films

XANGO® Unchained

Life of Pi is p. amazing visually and it sounds like the biggest flaws in the plot are straight from the book. I expected to hate it but from the sinking ship to the island is very good.

Bawbra!

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-2013-barbra-streisand-perform-416794

Glad to see they've given up on trying to appeal to the young audience, unless they have a completely blinkered understanding of Guilt Trip's performance.

2012's Oscar Nominees

Harvey the Hutt: I shoulda sent out Django discs and had PTA cut The Master.

http://www.salon.com/2013/01/30/harvey_weinstein_says_he_screwed_up_on_the_master_and_django/

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/entertainment/2013/01/how-zero-dark-thirty-crashed-just-outside-compound/61499/

damn, the Slant predic for foreign film hates seniors more than Haneke does.

...not to mention that Commie Ed Asner.

Always the most competitive category:

Since March 21, 1994, when the first regular obituary segment was dropped into an Academy Awards show, a spot on the yearly scroll of recently deceased movie luminaries has become one of the evening’s most hotly contested honors. And as in most Oscar races it is the focus of sometimes ferocious campaigning.

This time around it is a safe bet that Ernest Borgnine, Charles Durning, Nora Ephron, Tony Scott, Richard Zanuck and Marvin Hamlisch will get their few seconds in a roughly three-minute remembrance.

Beloved figures all. But who fills the next 30 or so spots in the memorial for this year’s show, which takes place on Feb. 24 at the Dolby Theater, is open to debate. And that debate is under way at the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, where a committee of members whose names are discreetly concealed from other members and the public are measuring celebrity, weighing achievement and trying to ward off entreaties from those who believe a loved one, friend or former client should have a last moment in the limelight....

“Of all the committees, it’s the hardest one to do,” said Tom Sherak, whose three years as president of the Academy ended last year.

“The committee’s names are never mentioned, ever,” Mr. Sherak added.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/08/movies/awardsseason/even-the-oscar-memorial-list-is-a-focus-of-campaigning.html

I remember hearing on anecdotal evidence (of course) how often it used to be for Academy member's wives to fill out their ballots for them. Make their choices and send it in nbd

Shirley Bassey to appear.

I watched the short live action films. Are these always so dire?

Anyone saw The Invisible War? This and Brave are the two films I want to win. As in, i'll be sad if they don' win and the rest I don't care that much.

Also, is there ILM top film 2012 thread?

argo won best director and film at the baftas. i've never seen it and i never will but ugh all the same. lets hope that emmanuelle riva's win for best actress is a foreshadowing of an oscar win.

The Invisible War shook me more than any film I saw in the fourth quarter: https://humanizingthevacuum.wordpress.com/2013/01/07/the-battle-continues-the-invisible-war/

I watched the short live action films. Are these always so dire?

There's almost always at least one or two outright disasters in the mix. Last year's was an above average slate, tho they ended up going for the most boring option. Lately, the smuggest, snarkiest entry tends to be the frontrunner -- i.e. God of Love and The New Tenants, which I'd argue is the possibly the single worst film to win an Oscar since Crash. I'm betting on Curfew this time around.

i don't trust the academy to get the big stuff right, i expect about the same for the categories i know nothing about

I missed this list last year (and apparently The Artist's win happened after the voting): http://www.filmcomment.com/article/extended-trivial-top-20

I'd say most of the winners I've seen from the 50s and 60s were just about as bad as the winners from the last 15 years, but they are 100 percent OTM about #1.

29. No Country for Old Men Joel & Ethan Coen, 2007
30. Out of Africa Sydney Pollack, 1985

o_0

I'm betting on Curfew this time around.

Well at least it was only the second worst one.

Agreed.

every year it seems like there's at least one nominated short that's about the holocaust

http://www.filmcomment.com/article/extended-trivial-top-20

no Gentleman's Agreement? it was the help of 1947.

a couple of those 'worst' choices strike me as straight-up trolling ('all quiet on the western front,' 'midnight cowboy,' 'my fair lady').

i'd forgotten 'tom jones' won in '63: i'm a tony richardson fan but that is a pretty terrible, borderline-unwatchable movie.

top ten mostly OTM but I woulda moved The Greatest Show on Earth into it.

Have never bothered to watch it, but I've little doubt Cavalcade is, indeed, worse than Slumdog and probably the majority of that top 10.

WORST PICTURE

Another take: http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-5-worst-best-picture-oscar-line-ups-of-all-time

bullshit: two forgettable melodramas in "The Heiress" and "A Letter To Three Women,"

kinda hard not to lol at the idea that 'performance,' 'night of the living dead,' 'hour of the wolf,' and 'faces' could conceivably have been nominated in 1968 (as awesome as they all are).

1952 & 1958 are clearly as bad if not worse than 1956, too.

did we ever do a best-of-the-best poll? i assume 'sunrise' would take it, assuming it counts.

Annie Hall or All About Eve would offer competition.

Yeah, those three plus Lawrence of Arabia, Rebecca, Bridge on the River Kwai, The Godfathers I & II and No Country all seem like solid bets for top 10.

Bridge on the River Kwai is the most pedestrian of those in retrospect.

so are bloggers hyping Emanuelle Riva and Ang Lee wins outta boredom? (I can see the first happening in a babe-split vote. Also the AAs are on her 86th birthday.)

Ang Lee more out of the vacuum at the top of that category and the perception that no one loves Lincoln.

Riva is kind of classic wishful thinking among the more guilty-conscience'd Oscar bloggers.

not about this year, but hey

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8942448/tournament-determine-worst-academy-award-moment-modern-history

eh – I'm fine with Landau beating Jackson.

Contenders I think were far from injustice (and, in some cases, were totally defensible):

The Dark Knight for Best Picture
Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction loses to Martin Landau in Ed Wood
Al Pacino never winning for The Godfather
Driving Miss Daisy
Martin Scorsese denied until The Departed
John Cazale, never nominated in his tragically way-too-short, but nearly perfect career
Angelina Jolie kissing her brother
Björk's swan dress

are you arguing that Grantland is right to champion these lost causes or that these people and films deserved to lose?

Samuel L. Jackson in Pulp Fiction loses to Martin Landau in Ed Wood

only a cause for ppl who love superfly shtick i guess

xp I wouldn't have put them in brackets for the worst things Oscar has ever done, for various reasons.

Like I don't consider The Departed to be radically cut-rate compared to Goodfellas, and I think Al Pacino wasn't the best in his category in either of his at bats.

And Bjork's swan dress was the best thing to ever hit that stage.

and Driving Miss Daisy is good.

Good enough that its win isn't offensive, given Do the Right Thing wasn't up.

sorry, The Departed is tepid

So is Goodfellas.

If that doesn't make posts very much in character, I have no character.

Better to give Marty his Oscar for that one over the previous two nods.

No joke. As far as I'm concerned, both Scorsese and the Academy dodged 2 bullets there.

i don't really understand the constant retrospective defenses of movies that didn't win but turned out to be huge and monumental in the mainstream, like pulp fiction's lack of oscars isn't exactly hurting its reputation with anyone

well i do understand it i guess

sorry, The Aviator is at least as "good" as The Departed

u know what else sucked, neither King Kong nor Duck Soup won in '33 and as a result no one watches them

you're insane. People under 30 watch Duck Soup all the time.

following your line of reason everyone has seen Gentleman's Agreement

you're insane. People under 30 watch Duck Soup all the time.

LOL

damn Alfred, you haven't had a moment like that since ya fell for The Onion.

Alas Eric seems to know too many ppl under 30!

There was like three or four layers of sarcasm going on in the last few posts.

a veritable carapace.

the only sincere remark was the one about the Kazan movie about John Jewfield.

that one was about on a par w/ Philadelphia methinks

sorry, The Aviator is at least as "good" as The Departed

I still maintain The Aviator is really underrated. But I like Gangs of New York too so maybe that invalidates all my opinions forever.

if The Aviator had won and ILX had gone apeshit over its sparkling repartee Morbs would hate it too

I don't hate The Departed, at least it's not Cape Fear or Hugo.

Scorsese may be the one director where Morbius and I seem to be close to 100% on the same page.

i liked 'hugo' a lot but i know i'm not winning that debate around here.

Caught a few seconds of "Insomnia" on TV today and realized we're due for Hillary Swank to come out of nowhere to win an Oscar for something. Double check your ballots everyone, let's not get blindsided again.

amazing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mgrxvTdl-Q

That's great. Joe Spinell!

They should have added Robert Benigni over Nick Nolte to their list of travesties. (I've never actually seen Life Is Beautiful, but I'm counting that as a minor technicality.)

Best Actor in '98 was kind of a toss-up, but IIRC, Benigni's main competition was Ian McKellen.

I just tried to verify that and got caught in an Internet nostalgia trip:
http://web.ncf.ca/aw220/99oscar.htm

I checked around a bit, and it seemed close going in: McKellan won the L.A. Film Critics and National Board of Review, Nolte the National Society and the New York Film Critics, Jim Carrey the Golden Globe, and Excitable Italian Man the Screen Actors Guild.

woulda voted Nolte among the nominees, overall Beatty in Bulworth

actually I just found my end of '98 wrapup, and my best acor choice was Homayon Ershadi in A Taste of Cherry and The Pear Tree.

Ian McKellen - fucking ham who should stay on the stage

Oscar needs more winners like this honey-baked ham (the movie in which he played the ham was a dog though).

 Best Actor
Tom Hanks, Saving Private Ryan	5:2	[10:11]	9:5
Ian McKellen, Gods And Monsters	5:2	[6:4]	6:1
Nick Nolte, Affliction	4:5	[5:1]	8:5
Roberto Benigni, Life Is Beautiful	8:1	[10:1]	10:1
Edward Norton, American History X	16:1	[33:1]	40:1

I honestly and truly don't remember anyone thinking that Hanks was set to win his third lead acting Oscar in the span of 5 years. I think a lot of people were pretty sure it was a three-way contest between Nolte, McKellen and Harvey's Euro Windup Toy.

At the time, I'm sure I was in Norton's corner.

once you saw those pecs, sure.

http://www.nypost.com/p/entertainment/movies/my_cote_is_equal_to_brad_pitt_paolHiC6vWIAvjLzFExewM

Rita Gam, a one-time starlet of the 1950s, doesn’t always see all the movies on the Oscars roster — but as a member of the prestigious Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, she always makes sure to vote.

“I never missed a year voting since 1954 — since I’ve made movies,” says Gam, 85, who appeared in classics such as 1952’s “The Thief,” which earned her academy membership, and 1961’s “King of Kings.”

“One is always an active member — until you go to heaven.”

The classic beauty, who was once married to Sidney Lumet “back when he was an actor,” was also a onetime roommate of Grace Kelly.

So which movies is she excited about on this year’s roster?

“Amour”? Never heard of it.

“Life of Pi”? Blank stare.

“Zero Dark Thirty”? Hasn’t seen that yet.

“I voted for ‘Argo’!” she says triumphantly.

Ben Affleck for Best Director? “I think he’s up there!”

Indeed.

Oh, and will there ever again be a year in which one single movie doesn't sweep the guild awards? It seems not.

Have never bothered to watch it, but I've little doubt Cavalcade is, indeed, worse than Slumdog and probably the majority of that top 10.

― Zero Dark 33⅓: The Final Insult (Eric H.),

Pauline Kael wouldn't agree:

“An orgy of British self-congratulation in the restrained, clipped style of Noël Coward, with the added know-how of an American producer (Winfield Sheehan) and a Hollywood director (Frank Lloyd)… Coward knows plenty of tricks, and the performers know how to get the most out of his lines.”

Yeah but what if Kael watched Slumdog.

xp Are you kidding? Kael would've been all "all I wanna do is * * * * and a $ and take your moNAY."

She would have been MIA after about 10 galangs (galangs means minutes right)

No, that jaided ho would've sat like a milliner's model until the very last "is that your final answer?"

Can't remember '91 or '92 (which I'm sure I watched parts of), so this is my official earliest Oscar memory:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bANlNonauZM

Nathaniel's been slow to post his predictions.

Peters/Sondheim specialty = extra gay

EW's picks are ew.

Hollywood Psychics still holding out for Lincoln

http://www.awardsdaily.com/Predictions/main.php

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscar-voters-brutally-honest-ballot-422546

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

“It’s a tough category because everything is mediocre. I’m definitely not voting for The Pirates. I’m not voting for Frankenweenie. Brave was unimpressive. So I guess it’s between ParaNorman and Wreck-It Ralph. So… [At this time he assigned the screen side of his iPhone to the former and the back side of it to the latter, and spun it on his desk.]

Vote: Wreck-It Ralph

Nathaniel's been slow to post anything this year.

Huh, between the print edition and the hit-generating slideshow, EW moved away from predicting Lincoln in director and screenplay. (So have I.)

"If there's a contender who has been robbed this year, it's Kushner."

Raise a glass.

the one i linked is an anonymous director walking through his ballet btw

That one's a really funny read, actually.

Though not quite as funny as Snow White's postmort on The Worst Oscar Production Number Ever: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-rob-lowes-snow-white-422225

I remember Bob Mackie said, "Why am I making a Snow White outfit?" I fainted once during a fitting because I hadn't eaten. I woke up, and Bob was going, "Honey, are you all right?" He gave me juice. My dress was bought for $23,000 by someone involved with the production who was buried in it. It was a man. I'm leaving it at that.

Uh-oh.

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Oscar winners Russell Crowe, Jennifer Hudson and Catherine Zeta-Jones will perform at the Academy Awards in a tribute to the resurgence of big-screen musicals, organizers said on Wednesday.

The performance, which will also feature Oscar nominees Anne Hathaway and Hugh Jackman from "Les Miserables," is part of the several musical acts at the annual Hollywood awards on Sunday.

"We are pleased to have been able to amass so much talent to create the celebration of musicals of the last decade that we envisioned," Oscars producers Neil Meron and Craig Zadan said in a statement. "We are thrilled that so many talented actors have agreed to bring our vision to life."

Musicals have had a revival over the past decade in Hollywood. Death row drama "Chicago" won six Academy Awards in 2003, including top prize Best Picture, and girl-group drama "Dreamgirls" scored two Oscars in 2007 while television's "Glee" has won six Emmy awards since 2010.

R&B singer Hudson won a Best Supporting Actress Oscar in 2007 for her role in "Dreamgirls" and Zeta-Jones won the same award for "Chicago" in 2003.

Crowe, who stars in "Les Mis," won an Oscar for Best Actor in 2001 for his role in the Roman drama "Gladiator."

"Les Mis" scored eight Oscar nominations, including Best Picture and Best Original Song. "Les Mis" actors Amanda Seyfried, Helena Bonham Carter, Eddie Redmayne, Aaron Tveit and Samantha Banks will also join the musical tribute.

Crowe to be dubbed by Beyonce.

That voting director is kind of a dick, but

"Michael Haneke just hates human beings, and I happen to be a human being and don’t like being shit on."

Says the director of Cruising (according to speculation).

the resurgence of big-screen musicals
the resurgence of big-screen musicals
the resurgence of big-screen musicals
the resurgence of big-screen musicals
the resurgence of big-screen musicals
the resurgence of big-screen musicals

I love how it describes Zeta Jones and Hudson getting supporting gongs for musical performances...and then old Rusty with his Oscar for Gladiator. *record scratch*

srsly, musicals went away for all of 8 or 9 years

Says the director of Cruising (according to speculation).

― Zero Dark 33⅓: The Final Insult (Eric H.), Thursday, February 21, 2013 11:17 AM (2 hours ago) Bookmark

god, no way. the guy who just made killer joe repeatedly & lazily emphasizing his preference to be 'uplifted'? not in a million years

that dude sounds like someone who's par for the course in hollywood/a terrible person

his reasoning for not voting for ang lee because of the ending but in the end plumping for david magee's screenplay makes absolutely no sense whatsoever!

See? Crazy enough to be the guy who directed Killer Joe.

god, no way. the guy who just made killer joe repeatedly & lazily emphasizing his preference to be 'uplifted'? not in a million years

He dislikes Amour and War Witch because they're depressing, but I didn't interpret that to mean that he always wants uplifting fare. He did say that voters as a whole tend to vote that way when it comes to the foreign-language-film category -- as a way, I guess, of defending his own vote for Kon-Tiki. But he also voted for Zero Dark Thirty as Best Pic and seems to have loved The Master.

He did say that voters as a whole tend to vote that way when it comes to the foreign-language-film category -- as a way, I guess, of defending his own vote for Kon-Tiki.

he said p much the same thing about searching for sugarman too

friedkin's denied it on his twitter anyway, and im willing to take him at face value

https://twitter.com/WilliamFriedkin/status/304630336183226368

yeah, Sugarman 'made me feel like a million bucks' sounds more like, I dunno, the guy who directed Chicago.

at least he didn't call ZDT "magnanimous" though

http://s3-ec.buzzfed.com/static/enhanced/webdr03/2013/2/21/13/enhanced-buzz-840-1361472875-0.jpg

Team America should have been nominated.

Carpetbagger predictions. I am appalled that De Niro is a front runner.

where ya been? Lincoln backlash.

wd love to read DDL's in-character text messages

Sort of "fun" that at least 3 of the top 8 still have 3 viable contenders, and another is a total toss-up. Sucks that Lincoln will lose in almost all of those.

If ever we needed a mulligan at HND.

I root for films I like to lose at this point. A greater honor.

A strategy so fulfilling you've adapted it for everything else in life.

Nate Silver runs the numbers. LOL at the pitiful weighting in the directors' category:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/oscar-predictions-election-style/

"it’s going to be blind luck if we get this one right: you can’t claim to have a data-driven prediction when you don’t have any data."

Of course, Silver admits his method just doesn't work in this field. Case in point:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2013/02/22/movies/22fivethirtyeight-oscar-charts/22fivethirtyeight-oscar-charts-custom6.png

my only stake in this is hoping waltz doesnt win. that should be sam jackson's nomination

The other four should be Matthew McConaughey's.

Bruce Willis as Capt Sharp, imho

it's SUCH a relief to dislike something more than you.

you could make a long list and you know it

(as could Zero Dark Grumpyclimber)

have no problem with the Willis performance, ESPECIALLY in this group.

jaymc, has an acting category ever before consisted entirely of past winners?

pretty sure this is the first time -- in a supporting category at least

Yeah, first time in any category AFAIK.

Filled out the office Oscar pool earlier today. Interestingly, my picks are identical to Nathaniel's (with the exception of the shorts, which we don't do):
http://thefilmexperience.net/blog/2013/2/22/final-oscar-predictions.html

no Bond film has ever won Best Song, THAT's weird.

More than most years I'm appalled by the predictions. As in, I can't fathom De Niro and Argo as frontrunners

I still think TLJ will win. But De Niro does have two things going for him: 1) He's taken an unusually active role in Harvey's campaign for him, and 2) In a category of former Oscar winners, he's gone the longest time without one.

if it closes the deal, argo might be my least favorite best pic winner for, as i kinda said before, using actual deep issues as window dressing on the story of how hollywood saved half a dozen gov't bureaucrats from an inconvenient incarceration. i don't necessarily think it's bad, it's just a movie that really blows it after what i thought was a pretty compelling opening stretch.

2) In a category of former Oscar winners, he's gone the longest time without one.

he's been phoning it in for the last 25 years or so

feel like there are a dozen or so entirely defensible-to-excellent de niro performances in that timespan.

yeah definitely. he delivers basically a perfect performance in jackie brown, and a bunch of other movies

with jackie brown, ronin, the score etc. the filmmakers knew what they had to work with and gave him an appropriate role, and it turned out ok. it's not because of him putting in much effort.

Deniro was fine in the 90s... 00s are a different story

midnight run
jacknife
goodfellas
cape fear
mad dog and glory
this boy's life
a bronx tale
casino
heat
wag the dog
jackie brown
ronin

now if you're arguing the past 15 yrs i don't much beef w/that stance, though i think he's been good in a few things over that timespan too.

i think he's def been taking it easy and also making poor choices; his stabs at gritty pics or thrillers have been mostly failed attempts (city by the sea, 15 minutes, righteous kill)

sorry but that nineties list is Jean Renoir worthy compared to a decade level

*level = later

jeez that supernatural thriller w/ B Cooper and him was pitiful

The thing that pisses me off the most about Argo is that I don't hate it and it would be a significantly better winner than the previous two piles of shit.

“Supporting Actor this year is interesting,” opines one studio chief. “Harvey practically got De Niro to wash cars on Santa Monica Boulevard.” Adds the first consultant, “De Niro hasn’t done much glad-handing and personal appearances in his career. But this guy, for a supporting role, is everywhere — including that Hollywood International Film Festival. On Goodfellas, he was nowhere to be seen. I remember studio publicists were driven to drink over his nonchalance.”

Notes the head of marketing at another studio without skin in the Best Actor race, “Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win no matter what, but he also campaigned more than he ever has before. He was out here a lot — I’ve never seen him doing it before — probably because it’s such a tough field of competitors, you know?”

Humility — even false humility, given the outsize egos of so many male Academy members — is essential. Says our first consultant, "I was working with an Oscar-nominated actress recently, and she told me she went to the Sorbonne ... I was like, 'Wow! That's a great nugget — we should use that in interviews and press materials,' and she was immediately like, 'Whatever you do, do not tell people I went to the Sorbonne!' And she was right: This is a town that doesn’t appreciate or reward smart women … It probably hurt Sharon Stone’s career immeasurably when she claimed she was in MENSA."

u_u

just been to see No. V. pretty, well told, witty. not exactly deep but a more enjoyable 2 hours than most of the BP noms i'd imagine

Don't watch much TV and have not been following this race, but has DDL been out and about? He seems the guy most likely to show up with a giant beard down to his knees, if he shows up at all.

Oh, wait, a few xposts above I guess it says he has been visible. Is he all shaggy?

Was listening to Fresh Air interview Ben Affleck, then turned down the radio when I picked up my Shamrock Shake at the drive-thru. Then I turned it up again a minute later and listened til the end. Was not until the last minute that I realized the interview had switched subjects from Affleck to Bradley Cooper. I could not tell the difference, from voice down to demeanor.

ftr the Sorbonne is not a prestigious school in France

School of Sorbonne like the School of Hard Knocks?

Would Sorbonne.

This is sort of fun if you try to name them before they come up on the screen (you've got a second between films--I got most of them from the late '50s through to 1981):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXzRE1F1VLE

FB friend just said she was 'excited' for the Oscars and described Seth McFarlane as 'hotttt'

I can't even

i'm not at home has fashion coverage begun yet?

no it doesn't start til like 5:30pst

oh fashion starts at 4 iirc

who knows though E! probably started on Thursday lol

lol camping bags sprawled out on the carpet 2 weeks ago

totally