Oh No, Pass the Lord and Praise the Ammunition--It’s Time for the 2007 P&J / Jackin’ Pop Prognostication Thread!

This year I will not miss the Jackin' Pop deadline.

This year no-one will care.

It's September.

http://www.carriesbearhugs.com/calendar-images-dell/baby-calendar-september.jpg

I think I started a 2003 P&J prediction thread in May.

And looking at the upcoming release calendar, I can't see the winner being something that hasn't come out yet. Radiohead was delayed until 2008. I just listened to the new PJ Harvey this morning, and while I like it, I can't imagine that critics are going to fall over it the way they did for Stories from the City or To Bring You My Love (maybe I'll be surprised).

daft punk alive 2007

You're gonna take a walk in the rain
And you're gonna get wet

You're gonna eat a bowl of chow mein
And be hungry real soon

I PREDICT

the Arcade Fire? Seriously? That album is terrible.

Best things I've heard this year: LCD Soundsystem, Ghost, Spoon, Interpol, Wooden Shjips (sure why not), Brightblack Morning Light, Ghostface

brightblack came out last year didnt it

entirely possible, I don't keep track of release dates

Not that it means a WHOLE lot, but Arcade Fire is #2 on Metacritic right now, and I can see a lot of critics who missed the boat in 2004 voting for it, even if it's not as good as the first one. Plus, I seem to recall a few critics who caught the boat in 2004 but genuinely like this one better. They seem more "important" now and not just a cute indie-rock success story.

I think the real winners will be the fans

i think someone should start a thread predicting the winner of the poll of the list of winners

This year has been absolutely fucking awful.

really has.

i LOVE neon bible. don't think it'll win. i think this year has been bril. - great records by quite a few faves, and up and comers also represent (hi, against me!)
but i honestly can't stop playing magic right about now. boss and co. are godlike on this.

both college dropout and late reg. won p&j the years they were released...

predictions:

graduation wins. mia takes a staggering drop. neon bible is in the top 10. spoon is in the top 20.

spoon will be top 5.

this year's hold steady.

I was thinking about Spoon earlier. I'm not ready to say top 5, but it will be their strongest showing. ("Kill the Moonlight" and "Gimme Fiction" both placed #14.)

like there's any chance it's not gonna be KALA

daft punk alive 2007

if anybody has any sense, then yeah, this.

this thread makes me glad i don't live in normal-land. daft punk and spoon? egads.

*disclaimer* - have not heard one album named on this thread.

*clarification* - have no desire too.

*correction* heard the ghost album. not best ghost album.

cuz in crazy-land it was like the best fuckin' year ever!

whatre yr top few so far skot

didn't you once vote for northern state, dude?

i liked that northern state EP! i stand by that. haven't listened to it since it came out probably, but i did like it. it was funny.

i'll come back with a list. i have to make a top 20 list for decibel. i'm trying to think of non-decibel-ish things that i liked. the only indie rock cd i really liked was by the band *Prints* on temporary residence. i played that a bunch. i liked it in the same way that i liked that grizzly bear album from last year. i just get more and more divorced from mainstream/pop/indie stuff with every passing year. in ten years it will be nothing but string quartets and ancient jug bands for me. the death of a hipster.

It's been a great year for singles! And I hope "Umbrella" takes it (though there are lots of other great frontrunners).

Sadly, "Stronger" will probably make the list.

Albums? I like The National and White Rabbits. Neither will win (though the National will be top 15, yes?). I'll be sad if Kanye wins (that album only has three or four great songs!)

And I'll be happy if Kala takes first. I wonder how Panda Bear and Animal Collective will do.

But it will be interesting if Kanye takes the top spot (at least as far as P&J is concerned), since that would make him the only artist to ever win with three releases in a row (and that everyone of his 3 albums will have won the P&J albums poll). What are the odds of that ever happening again?

Maybe the better question would be, "Will a Kanye album release ever not win the P&J poll?"

Strike that. Forgot that Dylan won with three consecutive studio album releases.

It's been a great year for singles!

Mmmf. What I've heard here and there makes me think of a very ugly early 1987 (which is right around when I abandoned top 40 as regular listening) -- there's some good stuff, sure, always is, but it's stuck amid a whole lotta congealed sludge.

Isn't it ever thus?

Not being snarky, btw: with exceptions we've always had to troll around for good stuff.

Don't be surprised to find Hissing Fauna finishing in the top five.

If "Someone Great" gets pushed a bit, could improve LCD's chances of winning (though as music as I love the song, probably my favorite of the year, the video edit annoys me enough that I don't want to encourage it).

except that I'll prolly vote for both as my #1s, so I guess will be encouraging that plenty.

Rotting Christ's Theogonia in shocker upset

Have any metal albums ever done well in P&J? I don't recall (m)any in the polls on here. But they're only at 1995 or so.

Did Mastodon do well for instance? Or will Baroness be this years surprise package after a rave review on Pitchfork?

mastodon did pretty well i think.

Hurrah!
Maybe one day a metal band will win it then. Especially since metal is supposedly "hip" now.
New High On Fire better do well. That' a great album. Infact it's been a few good years for metal (for me anyway).

Kanye's the only album I have/like that will place highly, but I don't think it's nearly as good as his other albums so I kinda hope he doesn't threepeat. I can't think of any other rap album that will place highly, unless Wayne drops in early December or the Jay-Z is better than horrible. Nothing being rallied around this year the same way as Ghostface/Clipse last year. Maybe UGK? Wu Tang? Common?

Singles I don't even wanna think about it, as it will probably be Umbrella/Stronger and other bullshit. I'll probably opt out of voting again just to not feel responsible at all for the result.

new year's 07 i made a resolution to "keep up" and all that... now it's september and i'm totally out of it. no idea what came out this year! my favorite thing was probably the youtube of the showbiz pizza animatronic band reprogrammed to do "miss new booty."

not that anyone is hanging on my every word.

but srsly check out that youtube, it's better than the spoon album

Top 5

Kanye
MIA
LCD Soundsystem
Arcade Fire
?

Plus, I seem to recall a few critics who caught the boat in 2004 but genuinely like this one better.

-- jaymc, Thursday, 20 September 2007 22:27 (Yesterday) Link

i'm not a critic by any means, but i do like this one a lot better, for what it's worth.

Battles, maybe, or the Field.

I doubt it would be something that unpop.

didn't boomers make ANY critical hits this year? Some of them turned on Lucinda Williams this year.

lol maybe it will be the National

Amy Winehouse, can't forget her

Both Battles and the Field have gotten rave reviews from Pitchfork and the like, but the kind of daily newspaper critics that make up a huge portion of P&J's voters are never going to vote for mostly instrumental avant/electronic albums by anyone not named Moby.

are White Stripes still a lock for the top 10 or is their stock slowly falling?

is Jarvis Cocker gonna get any votes or did every U.S. critic that was gonna vote for him get the import last year?

oh wow, I can't believe I forgot about the White Stripes. esp since I'll be voting for them top 5, most likely.

I'd guess Amy Whitehouse or the Stripes at 5, then, on my list.

on my <i>prediction</i> list, I mean.

BROOSE may get the boomer vote after DeCurtis gives it 4.5 stars.

oh shit bruce

maybe this will be his Bigger Bang

what's the buzz on the new Springsteen? that could probably be the token boomer spot in the top 10 easily. (haha xpost)

if my morning jacket can place in the top 10, the national probably will.

i bet amy winehouse will do better than that even, she crossed over to lots of different folks across the spectrum (hip-hop, rock, R&B fans etc.)

probably! Lily Allen might get a boost from that "if more people vote for you in '07 you get your '06 votes", too.

I'm really interested in all the comments in this thread that assume that the professional/semi-professional music critics who vote in these polls base their decisions on how Pitchfork rates things.

yeah Winehouse didn't get too much UK import spillover last year so she'll probably do really well. but I think that how the next few months of backlash/tabloid stories/frightening toothless pictures play out and whether she has any more U.S. hits will decide whether she's top 3 or just barely making the top 10. (xpost)

Sorry, I keep thinking of these as being the ultimate corny indie fuxx polls.

I forgot about the White Stripes too so you can scrap both the Field and Battles.

lol maybe it will be the National

Argh no.

What's the consensus on the Rilo Kiley album? (The Jenny Lewis album was #15 on last year's P&J.)

it will place lower

it debuted chartwise in AMERICA below MIA, not a good sign

as far as top 10 indie debuts, we've also got the Shins and Bright Eyes to deal with here.

how are Bjork and Dizzee Rascal gonna do?

that dizzee rascal album is good and i'm not at all saying that because of ugk

yeah but isn't it only available on itunes in america or something?

i'm really hoping "Good Life" gets a late year surge and knocks down Kanye's other singles the same way "My Love" kept "SexyBack" from being higher last year.

the Springsteen album's an awful slog that only a boomer can record, but whatever.

I love the Dizzee (his best), but I don't see it scoring higher than in the twenties or thirties.

Feist will finish top 10, if not top 5.

Rilo Kiley's been getting pretty mixed reviews.

xpost Yes, how could we forget Feist! Good call.

Rilo and FOW will cancel out the intelligent indie singers/songwriter vote.

yeah, there's never been more than one of those in P&J before.

and they probably make the teens or low twenties.

Modest Mouse?

yeah feist is a lock for the top 10.

thank god there's no "crazy" this year. at least the singles will be suspenseful.

I really like the Modest Mouse album and it's an easy top 40, but its probably not noteworthy enough to chart high.

I predict that Lily Allen will do well. That and the Justice album are the only new things I think I've bought this year.

dark horse top 20s are basically everything Jess reviewed for pfork this year.

dan deacon ftw

not that I'm rooting for any of them

P&J:

1. MIA
2. Arcade Fire
3. Kanye West
4. Amy Winehouse
5. LCD Soundsystem

JP:

1. Arcade Fire
2. MIA
3. Kanye West
4. LCD Soundsystem
5. Spoon

That seems more or less about right. But what about the White Stripes?

why would Jackin Pop prefer Arcade Fire to MIA? And why would it be "Amy Winehouse vs. SPOON"?

Also, interesting that you have Kanye coming in third on both polls.

i think amy winehouse will beat spoon in both

kanye won't lose to arcade fire

Last year Pazz took Bob Dylan over TVOTR, so logically they'd give MIA the edge.

I don't know if JP is effected too much by the demographic of other Gawker Media blogs, if it was the top 3 would be Winehouse/Lily Allen/Mark Ronson lol

So I take it you believe Jackin' Pop will skew more indie than P&J, Rodney?

MIA is as indie as Arcade Fire, Arcade Fire is just more rockist. Which would seeeeem to put them a little higher with the old folks camp.

The White Stripes: Losing capitol. Elephant was #2. Satan was #6. I see this one continuing their slide.
Winehouse: hard to miss, plays well with older voters
M.I.A.: Already a proven factor
Arcade Fire, Spoon (fwiw, the latter is the only one of those records I haven't heard): indie
Kanye: I think he's losing a bit of steam with this one, but I can't see LCD beating him

xps

but what about your theory that MIA will take the old folks camp's token Neneh Cherry slot, Anthony?

Rolling Stone gave Neon Bible 3 and a half stars and Kala 4 and a half, for whatever that's worth as an old folks barometer.

JN$OT: Yes.

Oh MIA will make top 5 on both polls. I just don't see why one would think Jackin Pop would prefer the Arcade Fire to her while P&J wouldn't.

x-post Kala was reviewed by Xgau, who is a fairly anomalous "old folk."

And he gave Arcade Fire an A+ in the consumer guide, so its possible he'll vote it higher!

singles:

1. "The Good Life" Kanye West feat. T-Pain
2. "I'm a Flirt" R. Kelly feat. T-Pain & T.I.
3. "Bartender" T-Pain feat. Akon
4. "I'm So Hood" DJ Khaled feat. T-Pain, Trick Daddy, Rick Ross & Plies
5. "Shawty" Plies feat. T-Pain
6. "Buy U A Drank (Shawty Snappin)" T-Pain feat. Yung Joc
7. "Cyclone" Baby Bash feat. T-Pain
8. "Kiss Kiss" Chris Brown feat. T-Pain
9. "Creep Fast" Twista feat. T-Pain
10. "D.A.N.C.E." Justice

Hmmm. I didn't realize Funeral did as well as it did.

Haha Max.

I would be happy if "Umbrella" won single.

I think it's rather inevitable. Other than "Rehab" I guess, what else is in the running? I would not be happy, though.

AMERIE BOOSTERISM STARTS HERE AND NOW

well its obviously not gonna start in the marketplace

haha i wish T-Pain had a chance of getting singles poll love with anything other than "Good Life".

Only on albums, Alf. It's in my top 4, I can say that.

Good lord, I like "Rehab" OK, but I sure as hell hope it doesn't win. I mean, how boring would that be.

t-pain gets my artist of the year

dude has hustle

T-Pain's got a better chance of eventually getting critical love than Akon, as far as autotunesmiths go. And he's better too, which helps.

The problem w/ T-Pain is that he makes perfectly good, serviceable music, which I know is entirely your thing Al, but most crit types (myself included) want a bit more bang. He is made of 7s.

listen to "Church." there's your bang.

I could see "Don't Matter" scraping the bottom of P&J ala MJB last year, I can't see T-Pain placing.

I think "Good Life" and "I'm a Flirt" will place, though.

So, other than "Umbrella" & "Rehab", what might win singles and on which poll?

alternate top 10--

1. "The Sweet Escape" Gwen Stefani feat. Akon
2. "9mm/Speaker" David Banner feat. Akon, Lil' Wayne & Snoop Dogg
3. "I Tried" Bone Thugs-n-Harmony feat. Akon
4. "We Takin' Over" DJ Khaled feat. Akon, T.I., Rick Ross, Fat Joe, Baby & Lil' Wayne
5. "Bartender" T-Pain feat. Akon
6. "Don't Matter" Akon
7. "Sweetest Girl" Wyclef Jean feat. Akon, Nia & Lil' Wayne
8. "Sorry, Blame It On Me" Akon
9. "Hypnotized" Plies. feat. Akon
10. "D.A.N.C.E." Justice

Don't count out "Yong Folks," people.

"Young Folks," either.

"Irreplaceable" may have been too early in the year, "Stronger" has a shot too. LCD Soundsystem's three entries will probably cancel each other out.

"Irreplaceable" placed at 18 last year.

yeah, WAY too early in the year

I really hope "Makes Me Wonder" places high, but it didn't really have much zeitgeist to it.

Yeah "Young Folks" could, especially w/ carry-over votes. I've made peace with that one, kinda. "Irreplaceable" placed last year and everyone already knew it at the time (as opposed to PB&J), so no chance in hell it will even place. LCD vote-split is 100% inevitable. Kanye will suffer from some vote-split too, and I don't think either one is quite well-loved enough to pull it off.

is "all my friends" too indie? that's gonna be top 3 in pfork/stylus polls.

"Icky Thump" is definite top 10 thanks to folks who don't have the nerve to vote only for albums (plus it's great, but still).

m.i.a. will top arcade fire in p&j i think.

but not jackin pop?

probably that too.

will a non-kanye rap single even place in the top 15 this year?

i'm a flirt?

It's not about "All My Friends" being to indie, it's about LCD having three fairly well-liked singles and none of them being particularly privileged over the others.

"Icky Thump"? I dunno. "My Doorbell" was #9 and "Blue Orchid" didn't place, when both of those were much better. I could see it falling into #s 10-20.

"Makes Me Wonder" will make P&J, but not JP. It deserves to do well.

let's cross our fingers for "Lip Gloss"!

last year's pazz'n'jop:

1. Bob Dylan: Modern Times (Columbia) 1123 (95)
2. TV on the Radio: Return To Cookie Mountain (4AD/Interscope) 1109 (99)
3. Ghostface Killah: Fishscale (Def Jam) 1031 (96)
4. The Hold Steady: Boys and Girls in America (Vagrant) 983 (81)
5. Gnarls Barkley: St Elsewhere (Downtown/Atlantic) 791 (71)
6. Arctic Monkeys: Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not (Domino) 718 (63)
7. Clipse: Hell Hath No Fury (Re-Up Gang/Jive/Zomba) 673 (63)
8. Neko Case: Fox Confessor Brings the Flood (Anti-) 645 (64)
9. Joanna Newsom: Ys (Drag City) 626 (59)
10. Tom Waits: Orphans: Brawlers, Bawlers & Bastards (Anti-) 608 (51)

last years jackin pop

# 1. TV on the Radio - Return to Cookie Mountain (1338 points in 125 votes)
# 2. Ghostface Killah - Fishscale (1247 points in 118 votes)
# 3. The Hold Steady - Boys and Girls in America (1073 points in 95 votes)
# 4. Clipse - Hell Hath No Fury (1057 points in 102 votes)
# 5. Joanna Newsom - Ys (883 points in 84 votes)
# 6. Bob Dylan - Modern Times (749 points in 70 votes)
# 7. Gnarls Barkley - St. Elsewhere (623 points in 61 votes)
# 8. The Knife - Silent Shout (607 points in 56 votes)
# 9. Neko Case - Fox Confessor Brings the Flood (588 points in 58 votes)
# 10. Belle & Sebastian - The Life Pursuit (586 points in 54 votes)

so far the only big dif is that Jackin Pop skews younger, and slightly more beat friendly.

maybe "give it to me" but that isn't actually rap.

*being TOO indie

"The Way I Are" will do well (better than "Give It To Me", but again, not actually rap. Let me think.

"International Player's Anthem"

though Belle & Sebastian is older than Arctic Monkeys (who came in at 11 on JP), if not as old as tom waits

(wishful thinking, maybe)

what's new arctic monkeys gonna do? i like it alot, but it kinda landed w/o a thud.

also, sound of silver is kind of a lock for the top 10 in both polls.

7-10 range.

I thought we were already working with that as a given.

xp: You really think at least 6 will do better?

probably not in jackin pop, but probably in p&j.

jackin pop top 5 will be something like m.i.a., lcd, panda bear, arcade fire, spoon

not in that order.

you're underrating kanye

i would put money down that PANDA BEAR will not get more votes than Kanye in either poll

yeah you're right. i was looking at the metacritc top 30 for reminders and kanye isn't even in that (wtf??)

panda bear is this year's ys.

Panda Bear is the most annoying shit ever.

metacritic's top 10 from 2006:

1 Savane by Ali Farka Toure 2006 94
2 Orphans: Brawlers, Bawlers & Bastards by Tom Waits 2006 92
3 Modern Times by Bob Dylan 2006 89
4 Hell Hath No Fury by Clipse 2006 89
5 Return To Cookie Mountain by TV On The Radio 2006 88
6 Destroyer's Rubies by Destroyer 2006 88
7 Fishscale by Ghostface Killah 2006 88
8 The Town And The City by Los Lobos 2006 87
9 Estudando o Pagode by Tom Zé 2006 86
10 'Sno Angel Like You by Howe Gelb 2006 86

CAN'T TRUSS IT

right. i know josh ritter isn't placing top 10 in any of these polls. its just an easy site to see all the major 2007 albums amassed.

Britt Daniel would probably have to die to beat Kanye on either, too. And even then it's no guarantee.

5/10 xxp

Every ilxor here probably gets a higher ratio than that

Actually, four or five of those made the P&J top 10 last year. That's a pretty damn good percentage by Metacritic standards.

xxxp

Strawberry Jam will do better than Person Pitch, and neither of them will be higher than #15.

The sad thing is that all my favorite songs of this year are from last year.

so far the only big dif is that Jackin Pop skews younger, and slightly more beat friendly.

except modern times has better beats than tv on the radio

can't think of another 2k7 single that feels as 10 million years ago as 'i'm a flirt'

Or in the case of "Before He Cheats", two years ago. xxp

right now Graduation's Metacritic score is 79, which is a bit lower than either of his previous album's scores (85 and 88). still a critical darling, but less unanimously so, and I think that impressions will sour on it in the next few months as people stop comparing it directly to the turd that is Curtis.

also, it bears reminding: wow did that ti album ever sink like a stoney stone

Kanye's won twice before and has the first album to get in shooting range of first-week-platinum since 2005. and pazz'n'jop voters ALWAYS stick with an artist in their canon well past the sell-by date. that plus commercial success make for easy relevance plus rap tokenism.

and King only placed 29th! my money's on T.I. vs. T.I.P. ending up in the low 200's. (xpost)

where was kingdom come at last year? are we already assuming american gangster is going to be as bad/worse than that?

Kanye winning for Graduation certainly seems less absurd than Sandinista! or Imperial Bedroom winning.

It's also not as long as Sandinista! (not sure about Boredom

Anyone here willing to hazard a guess on how well the Miranda Lambert album will do? It's currently ranked no. 11 on Metacritic.

Kingdom Come: 174th place

ouch.

damn.

good call w/ miranda lambert. she might be 9 or 10 in p&j.

On Kanye: I'm betting he takes P&J but loses JP to M.I.A. or Arcade Fire.

Miranda is the noughties version of nineties Lucinda.

is it actually good?

The Miranda album? It rocks harder than anything except LCD Soundsystem, and she can sing. Likely a top fiver for me.

Oh it's fucking GREAT!!! xhuxk to thread. Alfred OTM.

Prodigy? Bjork?

lol @ "rocks harder than anything except LCD Soundsystem"

the only Miranda Lambert song I know is that awful "Me And Charlie Talkin'" one but I guess I shouldn't judge her new stuff by that.

"D.A.N.C.E." will do well in singles, espec. on JP.

rev otm. what about the album?

I don't see Bjork doing too well in either poll this time, but who knows.

also, a million xposts to AiB: i don't think wayne's gonna drop in time to make any discernable impact.

20s on P&J, #12 on JP

re:Justice

sounds about right.

Alex in Baltimore, if you're going to be a dickhead, write something more interesting yourself. Otherwise I'm going to suspect you're just following me from thread to thread because you liked my MySpace photo.

sorry dude, didn't mean to pick on you repeatedly.

but do you like his myspace photo?

i try to be a dick to everyone in equal measure but some people get seconds.

and i don't troll myspace and/or WDYLL threads for pics.

that sounds like a pimp c quote xpost.

Many good things come to mind about the LCDSS album, but rocking hard is not one of them.

No way will Miranda Lambert finish top 10. She's better-reviewed than most mainstream country singers, but to a lot of critics she's still a mainstream country singer and thus not worth their time. Dixie Chicks only managed to hit #20 last year, and that was with a mountain of press. (Of course, you could argue that the Lambert album is better, too.)

My guess is that she'll do marginally better than Gretchen Wilson's #46 in 2004.

yeah, but she'll conquer P&J when she's 60 and Rick Rubin has her covering Panic! At The Disco songs.

I'm really curious to see how Nick Lowe, Jarvis Cocker and Grinderman will do -- those are the unpredictable ones, for me, and I thought they were (respectively) good, great and excellent albums.

At that point, Rick's beard will wrap three times around the globe.

I hope "No Pussy Blues" places! I can't see it happening, though.

It's hilarious to think that Miranda Lambert actually rocks.

Lowe's reward may be a Top 40 placing -- a reward to those who think his album's another Labour of Lust instead of a sequel to Pinker and Prouder than Previous.

plainly you need to hear the record under discussion.

(xpost)

I don't think that's hilarious, although I haven't heard the album and probably won't, since it's not the kind of thing that pops up on message boards with Sendspace links.

Based partly on the enthusiasm for it I've seen on this board, plus the length of time the thread devoted to it has hovered near the top of the "New Answers" page, I thought Studio's album (the West Coast EP or the Yearbook full-length debut) might sneak into the top 5.

Alright, don't mind my question, but who the hell are Studio?

Yeah, first I've heard of them, too.

Kind of hard to search for, obv.

The Studio -- West Coast

a longform post-punk dub disco masterpiece which manages to be dreamy and wistful and eerie and slightly forlorn all at once

Indeed.

The problem w/ that line of reasoning is that ILM /= either electorate.

Sorry. No need to be snarky on my part. Yes, that's the disc.

The problem w/ that line of reasoning is that ILM /= either electorate.

Fair enough. But I'd guess that a lot of contributors here vote in those polls.

+ 400 other people tho.

Right, but it's still not a huge segment. That could easily be one of those thing people haven't heard of that gets into the poll, but I think top 5 is out of the question. xp

Didn't ILM go nuts for Kelley Polar, too? Love Songs of the Hanging Gardens finished #135.

I hope "No Pussy Blues" places! I can't see it happening, though.

-- The Reverend, Friday, September 21, 2007 6:25 PM (28 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

If I had voting power it'd be in my top 3-5 of the year

Thanks for mentioning Studio, though, Daniel: I am listening to stuff on HypeMachine right now, and I like.

My pleasure. Tip of the hat to those on the Studio thread here who recommended the disc.

How will "This Is Why I'm Hot" do?

"It's Goin' Down" was 49 last year, I picture it doing about as well as that. Maybe "Party Like A Rock Star" and a little higher and "Crank That" a little lower.

party like a rockists WOULD vote the shittiest song highest

Hey that's just my vague and probably wrong prediction. I hope for better but I fear that's how it's gonna turn out.

Interesting that none of us have mentioned the New Pornographers yet--that alone may well give us some insight on how good their chances of cracking the top 10 are.

tay zonday ftw

Interesting that none of us have mentioned The New Pornographers yet

No one's mentioned Wilco, Deerhunter, Deerhoof, The Clientele, Matthew Dear, Dinosaur Jr., Nina Nastasia/Jim White, or Stars yet, either.

Radiohead, Jay-Z, Wu-Tang, Weezy, M.I.A.

Kanye's stock is plummetting, right?

most importantly ghostface.

also even if carter III does come out on dec. 18 that's kind of really pushing deadline (i think). plus he doesn't has the reach of kanye/ghost/wu/a good jay-z album just yet.

you're right about a lot of people (myself included) slowly souring on graduation i think.

doesn't have*** xpost (not typing in lolcats speech)

Lord Sotosyn help me, for I am seriously succumbing to Srpringsteen's Magic--currently on the third listen in a row, and I can't stop! HALP!!!

Oh, fuck. Radiohead is going to win. Excuse me while I sulk.

High possibility of Radiohead/Arcade Fire 1-2 = me, even more depressed.

At least the rest of the top tier should be good.

But what if Bruce wins, Rodney? Embrace the guitar or die tryin'!

I'm not a huge fan, but that would be preferable to either. (nb: I haven't heard his album)

I'm not sure how he'll do, though. The Rising top tenned, but Devils & Dust barely squeezed in. I can't think of what else this year would get P&J's boomer vote, though.

I guess The Stripes and A. Winehouse will get a lot of the boomer love. I see the latter as a lock for top ten on both polls, The Stripes seem to be slowly parachuting downwards.

The P&J results should prove interesting, considering that many more youngsters will probably end up boycotting it this year than did last (I'm assuming, natch!). But will it turn into the middle-aged, post-boomer critics-club--who knows?

I figure Radiohead, LCD, K. West, A. Winehouse, Arcade Fire, M.I.A., Spoon (The National?) will top ten both polls.

xp: I don't think that will necessarily happen, those interested in boycotting P&J already have done so. Some might migrate over to JP, having seen its viability, but I don't think it will be a huge number or that they will necessarily forgo voting in Pazz, too.

Yeah, that's very likely how things will shake out. I'm most curious to see if JP ends up with something like twice ths P&J electorate this year (which they justifiably should, no doubt--and I don't really hold anything against Harvilla, fwiw!).

xp

BTW, isn't it around 5:45 on the west coast? Dude, when do you sleep?

5:45 AM, that is.

Where's that little "It is a MYSTERY" ghost when I need it.

(questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks questions end with question marks)

hahah--it's on the noize bored, natch.

Lord Sotosyn help me, for I am seriously succumbing to Srpringsteen's Magic--currently on the third listen in a row, and I can't stop! HALP!!!

Close your eyes and think about baseball.

hahah--funny thing is I absolutely detested it on first hearing, didn't touch it for a month or so, and now I (gulp) really like it. It's a conspiracy is what it is--one apparently aimed at over-40 geezers like myself, I suppose. I wonder if xhuxk will succumb.

The title track is lovely, and "Radio Nowhere" finally goes somewhere after several listens, but Brendan O'Brien is the wrong producer – it all sounds like clam chowder and nostalgia.

I think the problem with O'Brien is not enough nostalgia; I have no problem w/ Bruce making a compressed 90's guitar rock-sounding album with the guy who did all the Pearl Jam albums, and I have no problem w/ Bruce making an album with E Street that actually sounds like an E Street album, but Magic kinda splits the difference and doesn't satisfy either impulse. The organ/piano's mixed way too low and the sax solos stick out like a sore thumb, but I'd probably love a full-on nostalgia trip that doesn't fuck up those elements.

But I have no idea what clam chowder sounds like so maybe I'm misunderstanding you.

true nuff.

xp & not

stir it in a bowl when it's cold – that's Magic.

Will Raising Sand break the top ten, y'think?

If Matos has anything to say about it it certainly will (j/k).

I like it plenty despite draggy bits; it'll certainly make my top twenty.

Yeah, I'm with you on that one.

[continuing from other thread] Of course Burial will do better in JP or w/e than P&J. I thought that went without saying! I say it will be top 15 on the former, though, and probably end up eating my hat.

no i know that goes w/o saying but id be surprised if it went top 20 in either. it's like the '07 equiv of like liars or something (i know burial is #1 metacritic or w/e but thats cuz the "out there" ppl at mags are reviewing it or specialty mags are pumping its score whereas liars were reviewed by straight-line rock crits) which didn't even get in the top 40 of either poll despite mass internet love and a mainstream curiosity.

i.e. if burial had 29 reviews like drum's not dead does it would be in the low 80s/high 90s.

aye low 80s/high 70s

like there's any chance it's not gonna be KALA

-- gershy, Thursday, September 20, 2007

wasirite??

No.

I dread da Radiohead!!!

singles:

1. "The Good Life" Kanye West feat. T-Pain
2. "I'm a Flirt" R. Kelly feat. T-Pain & T.I.
3. "Bartender" T-Pain feat. Akon
4. "I'm So Hood" DJ Khaled feat. T-Pain, Trick Daddy, Rick Ross & Plies
5. "Shawty" Plies feat. T-Pain
6. "Buy U A Drank (Shawty Snappin)" T-Pain feat. Yung Joc
7. "Cyclone" Baby Bash feat. T-Pain
8. "Kiss Kiss" Chris Brown feat. T-Pain
9. "Creep Fast" Twista feat. T-Pain
10. "D.A.N.C.E." Justice

-- max, Friday, September 21, 2007 12:47 PM (2 months ago) Bookmark Link

^^^almost did this on my ipcp ballot but felt too weird about it

I almost went all novelty-rap. As is, it's only about 50%.

i really wanna put the new new soulja boy singles (not "soulja boy") on there. i've listened to it like 10 times tonight and laughed harder every time. i might start a thread.

single*

no "soulja girl"** god it's late

The top five is easy, though the order could be different.

1 Arcade Fire
2 Radiohead
3 M.I.A.
4 Kanye West
5 LCD Soundsystem

#6 I'm not sure. It's probably between Wilco, Springsteen, National, Feist, Spoon, Okkervil River, White Stripes, Amy Winehouse (please don't). Probably not Of Montreal.

Fastnbulbous, everyone's softening on Kanye and no one's voting for Wilco. Without question, it's gonna be M.I.A. LCD Soundsystem doesn't have the cross-cultural reach, Radiohead's record was ultimately too polite if you discount the whole history making publicity thing. I say M.I.A./LCD/Radiohead/Arcade Fire/Panda Bear/Miranda Lambert/Jay-Z/The National/Kanye/Springsteen. Ghostface, Spoon, Burial, Feist and Battles will be in the top 20.

zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I don't think you need much in the way of "cross-cultural reach" to win these things.

m.i.a. at number one is a pretty obvious choice i think

Feist seems like a better bet for top 10 than Miranda Lambert.

I can't see M.I.A. winning this. She doesn't seem to have the momentum she had two years ago, although maybe I'm just projecting the fact that I don't like her new album as much as the first.

It's gonna be LCD or Radiohead or Arcade Fire.

M.I.A. is a shoo-in, I'd say (and I don't like her new album as much as her previous one either.) Arcade Fire or Radiohead could be close; LCD no way, at least until I have to eat my words.

And yeah, Miranda Lambert top ten seems like a stretch, even though I voted for her myself. (I have trouble thinking Panda Bear will do that well, either -- what's the best Animal Collective have ever done? -- though I could be wrong. Burial, too, but boring music often does better than I think it will, so who knows...)

And I could see Springsteen finishing as high as fourth, too (speaking of boring music).

As for Feist, I would have thought she'd get way more singles votes than album votes, but then I saw that all four Times critics put her album in their top ten--so yeah, she may wind up surprising people.

People really think M.I.A. has this locked?

Does anyone know how to make an office pool?

I'd love to see one.

I don't know how they work since, doy, sports are dum.

I don't know about locked but that's where my money's going. She will end up #1 for quite a few people but #7 or #10 on a TON of lists. MARK MY WORDS YOUNGUN>

I dunno, this just doesn't seem like M.I.A.'s year. I can't really recall seeing her at number one on any of the other critic's lists that have come out.

As for Feist, I would have thought she'd get way more singles votes than album votes

I'd have thought so too, seeing as Reminder is one of those albums - like The Pretenders' debut or Blue Oyster Cult's Agents of Fortune - which is almost completely overshadowed by its big single. I've listened to The Reminder a couple of times now, and I still can't remember how any song goes, other than "1234".

On the other hand, the singles polls tend to function as a way for indie-centric voters to squeeze in their token pop/dance/hip-hop choices without messing up the (more important) album ranking, so Feist may somehow manage to cross over to the album list, like she did with the Times critics.

I dunno, this just doesn't seem like M.I.A.'s year. I can't really recall seeing her at number one on any of the other critic's lists that have come out.

-- The Reverend, Thursday, January 3, 2008 4:59 PM (5 hours ago) Bookmark Link

rolling stone, which means she may have crossed-over with the ever important p&j old ppl voting bloc.

MIA and Rihanna ftw

The Pretenders debut is so not overshadowed by its big single, at least for people who've heard it.

which means she may have crossed-over with the ever important p&j old ppl voting bloc

worked for Pulnoc and Todd Snider!

like The Pretenders' debut or Blue Oyster Cult's Agents of Fortune - which is almost completely overshadowed by its big single

o. nate = http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/81/PaulSimonStillCrazyAfterAllTheseYearsCover.jpg

(j/k, dude)

Fastnbulbous, everyone's softening on Kanye and no one's voting for Wilco. Without question, it's gonna be M.I.A. LCD Soundsystem doesn't have the cross-cultural reach, Radiohead's record was ultimately too polite if you discount the whole history making publicity thing. I say M.I.A./LCD/Radiohead/Arcade Fire/Panda Bear/Miranda Lambert/Jay-Z/The National/Kanye/Springsteen. Ghostface, Spoon, Burial, Feist and Battles will be in the top 20.

-- kiss out the jams, Thursday, 3 January 2008 21:53 (Yesterday) Link

u less mad than a lot of people here with their predictions, but still, u mad re: Jay-Z placing in the top 10, higher than Kanye.

MIA will win this by a comfortable margin over Arcade Fire and Radiohead. Watch Against Me! finish in the top ten also.

I bet you five bucks Against Me! will not be in the top ten.

Top 10? I bet it won't even make top 20. (Well, OK, maybe top 20 on the Idolator poll.)

The Pretenders debut is so not overshadowed by its big single, at least for people who've heard it.

I think for someone who only heard "Brass in Pocket" on the radio and liked it and bought the Pretenders debut, chances are they would be disappointed to find that there is no other "Brass in Pocket" on the album. Pretenders did make other songs that sound like "Brass in Pocket" on later albums though - "Back on the Chain Gang" and "Don't Get Me Wrong", for example, which also have that vaguely reggaeish lilt and pop sweetness to them, and which also did well on the charts.

In the same way, someone who buys The Reminder hoping to hear more songs like "1234" is going to be disappointed.

P&J:Radiohead
JP: MIA

someone who buys The Reminder hoping to hear more songs like "1234" is going to be disappointed.

thems retards

Why? I think the album would be improved by more songs in that vein.

As awesome as it would be for Against Me! to make the top ten, that's not gonna happen. If they surprise anyone, it's gonna be at the patented left-field upset spot of #14 where Rilo Kiley and Nellie McKay have turned moderate excitement into actual acclaim.

I don't think you need much in the way of "cross-cultural reach" to win these things.

-- The Reverend

O RLY: Wilco, Lauryn Hill, Outkast, Kanye, and last year especially, Dylan over TVOTR, because my dad didn't buy the TVOTR record. Though now you've got me thinking it's gonna be Arcade Fire over MIA after all.

Wilco has cross-cultural reach?

Wilco's major label shenanigans got them over in '02, just as Radiohead's what'd-ya-feel-like-payin'-for-this brouhaha will get them over this time. Probably.

Right. I'm not sure Radiohead have this locked either, but I think their chances are much better than M.I.A.'s.

Actually, I'm now betting that M.I.A. wins one poll and Radiohead the other. Just not too sure which one's gonna win which.

Here's what you guys are forgetting about Radiohead. They've never, ever won. Not for Kid A, not for OK Computer, and uh, I'm pretty sure In Rainbows isn't going to get the love those didn't just because they're a safe brand name. This ain't the Grammys ya know.

Wilco: The Eagles of Math Rock

I'll be presumptuous and call some top tens:

P&J:
Arcade Fire
Radiohead
Bruce Springsteen
M.I.A.
Amy Winehouse
LCD Soundsystem
Feist
Kanye West
Panda Bear
Spoon

iPop:
Radiohead
LCD Soundsystem
Arcade Fire
M.I.A.
Panda Bear
Kanye West
Feist
Spoon
Bruce Springsteen
The National

xp: kotj, very good point about Radiohead. I'll have to think about that.

Interesting to see that The Bends didn't even place.

I thought the same thing about Radiohead earlier. I'd say top 5, though. definitely. Can't see Bruce breaking top 3, probably lower top 10. And lord I hope "iPop" never catches on as a nickname.

Bends was very much a sleeper hit, at least in the U.S. I don't think most people realized how good it was until it was a year or two later and there'd been like 4 good, fairly popular singles and they shook off the "Creep" albatross.

If "Kala" wins, it seems like it will be the worst P&J album winner ever (I give the slight benefit of the doubt only because I haven't heard every P&J winner).

There is no way that Panda Bear will crack the top ten of P&J -- Animal Collective didn't make the top twenty with their last two albums. "Strawberry Jam" got way more crossover hype than "Person Pitch" in 2007, and it won't crack the top 20 either.

Radiohead, like most of modern rock's monolith's, seeped in very, very slowly as signifiers of Important. When OK Computer came out, I think they were in the same freshnewthing stage that Super Furry Animals and the Strokes and countless others never quite got past. It was only around the Experimental Stage and the classic Back2Basics stage (which we're in now) that everyone looked around and was like, oh, I guess they are the only ones left standing (charting). Where'd everybody go? Primal Scream?

Amy Winehouse and Springsteen are gonna place high but not higher than M.I.A. or LCD. Those two have cross-appeal. I'm most interested to see if more critics go Panda Bear or Amy Winehouse. Glossies versus da HTMLs! And Strawberry Jam got mixed reviews whereas PP ones were unanimous.

If "Kala" wins, it seems like it will be the worst P&J album winner ever

Not even close.

Seems like "Person Pitch" was much more popular with crit types than "Strawberry Jam", although I agree that the latter won't score too high. I've seen Panda Bear in a good percentage of the top tens I've seen.

If "Kala" wins, it seems like it will be the worst P&J album winner ever

Not hardly. haha xp

I'm most interested to see if more critics go Panda Bear or Amy Winehouse. Glossies versus da HTMLs!

fwiw, I'm in da HTMLs and love Winehouse and think Panda Bear is the most awful thing I've heard this year, even worse than Sean Kingston.

"Not even close" OTM. (In the last 20 years, Kala would be way better than the average winner.)

Winehouse (who will carry over votes from last year, probably, though I'm not sure how many she got then) could easily place higher than LCD.

I suppose the Idolator poll comes out today or Monday? It came out on the 5th, a Friday, last year.

I don't think Winehouse got much last year, although Lily Allen might be one to watch out for. I'm not sure she'll get much support this year, though.

There's also the possibility of a Soulja Boy upset.

Speaking of which, what do you guys think is gonna win the singles poll? This is the first year in a while I don't think it's damn obvious. I'm not convinced it's "All My Friends" ftw.

Rev- the HTMLs jive with Winehouse the way they jived with Gnarls Barkley but it's the glossies and Grammys going to the mat for her. What's wrong with "Beautiful Girls"??

I'm w/Barry B. re Panda Bear. Seems like it has a good shot at the mid-20s.

Speaking of which, what do you guys think is gonna win the singles poll?

I think it's "Umbrella."

Hmm.

What's wrong with "Beautiful Girls"??

Everything.

As far as singles, "Umbrella" or "Rehab" for P&J; "Umbrella" or "All My Friends" for Idolator.

I think you're right.

Rev- the HTMLs jive with Winehouse the way they jived with Gnarls Barkley but it's the glossies and Grammys going to the mat for her.

I know, I never said I was typical. I wasn't particularly big on Gnarls, though.

Yeah, that seems reasonable.

xxp

"Beautiful Girls" and "Rehab" are essentially mirror images of each other (in terms of production aesthetic and vocal quality).

every time i hear that feist song i want to say, "1 2 3 4, i declare a thumb war."

Weird Al Yankovic should run with that idea, especially for the video parody potential.

If "Kala" wins, it seems like it will be the worst P&J album winner ever

it would be my favorite or 2nd-favorite of the last 10 years, in contention with modern times.

Just MODO on the shittiness of the MIA record ... I have to look back to, I don't know, 1999 ("Play") to find a P&J winner that I'm indifferent about. I mean, I like "Play", but there's no way it should have been #1, whereas with everything since then I can at least say "OK, I understand why that was #1 even if I'm not a big fan of the record".

OTOH, the idea that MIA might win this year really irks me.

consider me yr irker. i voted it #1 w/20 points.

irk away irk away irk away, the tipsy way

I considered using stronger language than "irk" (which would be more representative of my true feelings) but this is a family-friendly thread.

Weird Al Yankovic should run with that idea, especially for the video parody potential.

-- Alex in Baltimore, Friday, January 4, 2008 3:18 PM (27 minutes ago) Bookmark Link

Instantly whomps at least "Couch Potato" and "Pretty Fly For a Rabbi."

amish paradise> the rest of weird al's career

actually scratch that i forgot about "combo # 5" which is also a stone cold classic

locks for the top 10 in both polls: mia, lcd, spoon, kanye west, radiohead

Here's what you guys are forgetting about Radiohead. They've never, ever won. Not for Kid A, not for OK Computer, and uh, I'm pretty sure In Rainbows isn't going to get the love those didn't just because they're a safe brand name. This ain't the Grammys ya know.

About the Grammys comment, I wish it were true, but I'm not so sure. Just look at the winners over the past 20+ years....as an example, how do you explain Talking Heads finally winning for "Little Creatures"? I think Radiohead could easily win the P&J poll. My guess is MIA, though, with Arcade Fire a close second. The results of the Idolator poll seem less easy to predict. It's possible LCD Soundsystem could win that one.

The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that "Neon Bible" will win P&J ... it'll draw the Dylan/Springsteen old-skool rock vote, plenty of indie fuxxor votes, and the "Grammy" vote (i.e. people who didn't get on the bandwagon soon enough to vote for "Funeral", and will make up for it now).

That's pretty much my line of reasoning.

Any word on the publication date for these things yet?

idolator should be sometime this coming week i imagine, p&j probably a week after

i would be stunned if AF won to be completely honest w/ you

Really? Why is that?

http://www.villagevoice.com/pazzandjop05/winners.php?type=album

oops, posted this on the wrong thread. although it doesn't seem to make much sense, someone should still fix this.

Yeah that's pretty ugly. And hilarious.

So, apparently it's Sound of Silver and "Umbrella" for P&J.

Next.

Also--for those keeping track of such things--LCD win with (1641 points) 140 votes, as apposed to Kanye's (2525 points) 227 way back in good ol' 2005. So much for increasing the electorate (much) this time out.

i dont think every ballot has been submitted on that thing. its still quite a shocking oversight.

Time will tell.

Also: Just noticed that Radiohead are ahead of LCD in votes (145), but behind in points (a mere 1580).

This is fun.

Top 5 albums thus far:

1 LCD Soundsystem Sound of Silver 1651(140)

2 M.I.A. Kala 1595(142)

3 radiohead In Rainbows 1580(145)

4 Amy Winehouse 1383(122)

5 Arcade Fire Neon Bible 1199(110)

Top 5 singles:

1 Rihanna Umbrella ?

2 Amy Winehouse Rehab 87

3 Feist 1234 57

4 LCD Soundsystem \"All My Friends\" 54

5 Justice D.A.N.C.E. 51

What happened?

www.villagevoice.com/pazzandjop2006

er ^ the link takes you right to the front page

i'm assuming the results got uploaded early

the results got uploaded early to the 2005 website.

hahah--they're on to us.

(i.e., this link: http://www.villagevoice.com/pazzandjop05/winners.php?type=album don't work no more.)

And starwipe.