2014-15 Hall of Fame elections

http://baseballhall.org/hall-of-fame/2015-golden-era-committee-ballot

Dick Allen #1 for me. Maybe Minnie Minoso and no one else.

Can somewhat remind me why the "golden era" cuts off in 1972? Something to do with the introduction of the DH the next year? Or is each "era" exactly 25 years arbitrarily?

If Gillick is in, then shouldn't Howsam deserve to get too?

Dick Allen is deserving, but is there any momentum behind his candidacy?

Besides the SB's, Wills never struck me as a very good player.

Tiant is better than a lot of pitchers already in the Hall. But Kaat will probably get more votes (because of the wins).

Hodges will probably get around 60% of the vote for the 100th time.

Can somebody translate Dick Allen's 162 game avg stats to a c.2000 offensive environment? It's probably something like peak Albert Pujols.

Wills is nowhere near deserving.

They do seem to be on a kick of inducting execs, so Howsam wouldn't surprise me. There's a case.

Bill James is on record as saying Allen was a toxin who never helped a team win. *shrug*

I doubt there's any persuasive reason for the era cutoff.

"Can somebody translate Dick Allen's 162 game avg stats to a c.2000 offensive environment? It's probably something like peak Albert Pujols."

Yup Pujols or Frank Thomas although he struck out more than either.

1. Allen, 2. Tiant, 3. Minoso or Kaat.

Jay Jaffe in BP, 3 years ago:

For as much of a character as Tiant was, he suffers in comparison to the group of 300-win peers that are already in the Hall (Tom Seaver, Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Gaylord Perry, Don Sutton, and Phil Niekro), as well as non-300 winners Jim Palmer, Jenkins, and Blyleven. He never won a Cy Young, never even finished higher than fourth, never led his leagues in wins or strikeouts, and made only three All-Star appearances; his won-loss record is a comparatively meager 229-172. He barely edges Palmer in JAWS, albeit with a lower peak. After debuting on the BBWAA ballot with a promising 30.9 percent, he never surpassed 20 percent again, sometimes falling into the single digits. In this case, the voters were correct.

He found too much mediocrity in Kaat's long career, esp the last ten years. Gave Minoso credit for the late start to his MLB career, endorsed him as worthy.

I intuitively didn't think Allen was equal to peak-era Pujols or Thomas, but Alex is right, they're all clustered around an OPS+ of 170 during their primes (Pujols a little higher, Allen a little lower). He was probably the best hitter in the game after Mays and Aaron for the '64-74 window (after which he exits quickly and retires at 35)...not sure how he compares to Frank Robinson for that decade, or Clemente, etc. Here's where his numbers stood after '74: .299/.385/.554, 319 HR, 32 years old. Coming mostly out of the '60s (with his greatest year in '72), that's pretty great. He would have been 13th or 14th on the career slugging list at that point. He was two seasons removed from his near-Triple Crown in '72; started off just as great in '73 before a season-ending injury in August, had another great 2/3 of a season in '74. If he'd had a more normal decline after that, he would have ended up with 500+ HR and maybe 2500 hits; much better than McCovey, for sure, who strung together a lot of half-seasons between 35 and 42. I can't remember what combination of health issues and his reputation (deserved or not) brought his career to a close.

One of my favorite Sports Illustrated covers:

http://www.yourememberthat.com/files/126c24a40c7563e8.jpg

As everyone knows, you should never smoke while juggling.

Actually, if you arbitrarily choose the '64-'74 period, Allen's way ahead of Mays; Willie's doesn't do a whole lot after '66, with his decline coinciding with pitcher dominance. Aaron was the best for that time frame, though.

Schoenfield's rundown:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/53234/a-look-at-the-golden-era-hall-of-fame-ballot

Neat how close Puckett's and Olivia's stats are.

I'll be seriously pissed if Minnie don't get in.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/102250514/randy-johnson-pedro-martinez-john-smoltz-headline-2015-hall-of-fame-ballot

Predictions for the three pitchers:
Johnson -- 96%
Pedro -- 91%
Smoltz -- I don't know...65%?

smoltz will get in bc current high profile as yakkin jock on broadcasts/all around WINNAR/ TRU WARRIORZ/CLEAN etc

Not surprisingly, there was a real push to get him in at last year's inductions. Hopefully there'll be a little more perspective after a year. He belongs in the HOF; not sure that he's a first-ballot guy in the midst of so many others who are waiting.

with Maddux and Glavine getting in 1st ballot, i'm sure Smoltz will too.

maybe this is the year Raines gets in?!
*sigh*

I'm going on the assumption that there just won't be more than three guys go in in any given year (whether there should be or not). Which leaves Johnson, Pedro, and then a maximum of two out of Biggio, Bagwell, and Piazza. I guess Smoltz could leap-frog over the last three, but I don't think he will.

Pedro really 90%? I mean no brainer for me, but I know there are people who are like short career, low win total, few complete games, etc.

so, the Jack Morris Fan Club?

I wouldn't be shocked if he came up a little short of 90% for the reasons you mention. I think he'll be over, though.

Biggio is a lock at this point, right?

Unless he's like Kevin Costner's magic bullet in JFK, doing a U-turn mid-air, you would think so. Which suggests at least one of Bagwell or Piazza is going to fall short again.

tbh i thought biggio got in already but he missed by a few votes right?

ya - *just* missed.

Raines' vote total went down last year. His chances aren't looking good.

I was going to say that Raines is headed for the "golden era" committee (what an awful name), but I see he falls well outside the cut-off date. Will that cut-off be revised every few years? Is there still a regular Veterans Committee? I've lost track...He'll get in somehow, at some point.

i know. dontwanttoliveonthisplanetanymore.jpg

xpost - he will get in even if i have to sneak in a home-make plaque myself.

Nice that two Expos will go in this year, though. Imagine if they'd hung on to Johnson, still traded for Pedro, and had them together in the mid-late '90s. That's a next-level Johnson/Schilling .

Something they do yearly on James's site:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/2015_bjol_hof_ballot/

wowowow nice to have a ballot that isn't overstuffed

Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Curt Schilling
John Smoltz
Kenny Lofton
Kevin Brown

depressing to see all these massive-hall ballots in the comments tho

also i can't comment

I cut-and-paste a comment for Kevin once--if there's something you want to say, post it here and I'll move it over there (making it clear it's not me).

nah thanks tho. i just wanted to vote. but apparently bill wants me to pay 3 bucks a month for the privilege of voting alongside enlightened baseball fans who put bernie williams on their ballots without irony

If you're saying James's readership is unenlightened...I'll take a pass on that one.

I will say that $3 a month for the most influential baseball writer ever doesn't seem all that unfair.

naaaaaah it is for me

and i don't think the paid accounts are any more or less 'enlightened' than any other ball fans. keeping the voting behind the paywall just rubs me the wrong way.

Enlightened is your word, and I'm not sure where you get me saying there's a correlation between a paywall and the level of discussion...$3 is too much for you, because you have little interest in James--that stands to reason. I think for those of us who pay it, it's amazingly cheap. Especially given the opportunity to engage in some back-and-forth with James. I only wish I had a chance to do the same with Pauline Kael or Greil Marcus.

Bernie Williams falls well short of a HOF career in terms of his career numbers, but from 1995 to 2002, when he was the centre fielder on a team that won four WS, his 7-year peak (37.5 WAR) was not that far below the average HOF centre fielder (43.5). He was exactly the kind of player who gets overlooked, because he did a number of things well instead of one or two things really well. He's hardly the most egregious name to put on a HOF ballot.

i'm sure he's a hall of fame guitarist

I'm 100% behind Trammell in the HOF.

You would have to be quite the ballplayer to be in front of him in the HOF.

I can only read part of this, and probably the same for you:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post?id=8805&ex_cid=Insider_share_8805_Why+I%27m+abstaining+from+HOF+voting

>To repeat: I think Mussina, Schilling and Raines and others are Hall of Famers, but it’s better for their candidacy if I don’t cast a ballot.

cuts out before I can any sense of his logic here.

the electorate is the problem

As it stands, once you are eligible to vote for the Hall of Fame, you get that vote for life, which means that a great many voters who are no longer covering baseball — including many who never really covered baseball in a meaningful way — get a vote. Editors who oversaw baseball writers for a time. People who covered baseball for a few minutes during the Carter Administration but later went on to do other things. At the moment, the BBWAA will take away everyday credentials from a member if he or she is not affiliated with a BBWAA-approved outlet for two years, yet it will not take away a Hall of Fame vote from someone who has had no professional need to pay attention to baseball for decades.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/12/05/the-hall-of-fame-ballot-limit-is-a-problem-but-the-composition-of-the-electorate-is-a-bigger-one/

Randy Johnson is a photographer now? Here's his photo spread from Slipknot's Knotfest festival in RS:

http://www.rollingstone.com/music/pictures/randy-johnson-knotfest-photos-20141030

A couple of pieces on Dick Allen (the Times piece is from yesterday); some context for his malcontent reputation that shouldn't surprise anyone.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/cooperstown-confidential-dick-allen/
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/07/sports/baseball/weighing-the-complexity-of-a-hall-candidate-and-his-times.html?_r=0

nothing from the golden era committee

Disappointing. Dick Allen only fell a vote short (ditto Oliva). Not sure if that's his one chance, or whether there'll be others. I sensed from the Times piece and from a Facebook discussion group I'm on that there was some real advocacy out there for him.

Baseball Writers Assn votes to recommend to Hall of Fame that voters be allowed to vote for up to 12 candidates instead of 10

so here's the full list for 2015 with how long each player's been on the ballot and their previous vote%

Craig Biggio 3rd 74.8%
Mike Piazza 3rd 62.2%
Jeff Bagwell 5th 54.3%
Tim Raines 8th 46.1%
Roger Clemens 3rd 35.4%
Barry Bonds 3rd 34.7%
Lee Smith 13th 29.9%
Curt Schilling 3rd 29.2%
Edgar Martinez 6th 25.2%
Alan Trammell 14th 20.8%
Mike Mussina 2nd 20.3%
Jeff Kent 2nd 15.2%
Fred McGriff 6th 11.7%
Mark McGwire 9th 11.0%
Larry Walker 5th 10.2%
Don Mattingly 15th 8.2%
Sammy Sosa 3rd 7.2%
Randy Johnson 1st
Pedro Martinez 1st
John Smoltz 1st
Gary Sheffield 1st
Brian Giles 1st
Nomar Garciaparra 1st
Carlos Delgado 1st
Darin Erstad 1st
Tom Gordon 1st
Jason Schmidt 1st
Cliff Floyd 1st
Jermaine Dye 1st
Rich Aurilia 1st
Troy Percival 1st
Aaron Boone 1st
Tony Clark 1st
Eddie Guardado 1st

Really is amazing how strong the return candidates are as a group. Who's the worst player among them? Probably one of the bottom two, Mattingly or Sosa, unless you think it's McGriff. And, Sosa's issues aside, that's 600+ HR, almost 500 HR, and a guy who was brilliant for a short period of time.

Oops--missed Lee Smith's name. Most people would pick him.

Results for the poll Dave Fleming runs:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/2015_bjol_hof_results/

LOL "at I really respect Schilling for being a complete idiot with no filter" comment.

asserting that the single most awful personal life thing about a baseball player is a factor that makes you (the writer) even more likely to respect him is confounding as fuck, and I say that as a sox fan

I think the quotation marks are a stretch, Alex.

While I seldom share either his political or scientific opinions, I always appreciated his willingness to put himself out there. Schilling seems like one of those people who is fundamentally honest; one of those persons who can’t help but be themselves. This means saying what they think, even if those thoughts occasionally cause controversy. I like people like this: they seem somehow more true than all of us who end up living multiple versions of ourselves. In an era when most athletes stay behind the curtain, it was nice to have a guy who didn’t come to us filtered through the reports of others.

I'd hardly say that's branding him an idiot.

I'm branding him a complete idiot. Fleming is politely skirting around him being a complete idiot.

I understand that you feel that way. But I don't see that Fleming is politely skirting around anything he feels himself--you're conflating your opinion with his.

Sure so what?

Well...I don't know. That presenting your own opinion as someone else's is misleading?

That was my interpretation of that paragraph. If I didn't make it clear that's my opinion I'm sure that Dave Fleming will live.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/what-would-strategic-hall-of-fame-voting-look-like-010115

wholeheartedly endorse this

Randy Johnson – best left handed starter of his generation and a unique player.
Pedro Martinez –arguably the hardest right hander to hit at his peak, just nasty. At his peak, he’s as good it gets.
John Smoltz – I think the guy has a decent shot to go in on first ballot it seems, although I don’t think he was quite that good. He was very good and should be in the hall. Smoltz was the most overpowering of the big 3. Verlander kind of reminds me of Smoltz.

Gary Sheffield- HOF numbers, but I got to think the roids and just Shef’s mercurial style will drag him off the list and into discussions for a decade or more.
Brian Giles, Nomar Garciaparra- decent career, too many injuries
Carlos Delgado 1st
Darin Erstad- had one great season and a couple decent ones. Dude liked to get his shirt dirty.
Tom Gordon- awesome nickname, ties to pop culture with Steven King…good pitcher and with better health might have taken that next step.
Jason Schmidt- best pitcher in the NL for a couple years
Cliff Floyd- Nice career, maybe not as great as expected. He’s kind of a step down from Crime Dog.
Jermaine Dye- This was a guy Atlanta moved probably too early, although he had some lost seasons. He was really good in his 30s with the White Sox. I still don’t quite get how his career ended, as that still seems weird.
Rich Aurilia- He had some good seasons and some injuries. The guy had some pop for a shortstop.
Troy Percival- decent closer
Aaron Boone- Never as good as advertised but people know who he is for that HR against the Red Sox. As a Reds fan, I dug it when him and his brother played in Cincy and would have liked to have had some of those bats with the pitching they have had the past couple years.
Tony Clark- Best player on some crappy Tigers clubs.
Eddie Guardado- he pitched a lot, dude had some flair on the mound.

Delgado was a step beneath the Crime Dog too, still a very solid player.

BP's staff of 40 votes

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25275

if only Tim Raines had that much support with the rest of the voters.

I wonder how two presumably enlightened voters (or maybe it was the same person) decided that Johnson and Pedro didn't deserve a vote.

that person or persons included them on the unlimited ballot so they just pulled the "doesn't need my help" strategy

what i want to know is why the h*ck someone votes for bonds but not clemens

Okay. I can understand (without necessarily agreeing) doing that for the actual HOF, but strategic voting on a make-believe ballot strikes me as a little silly.

well looking at walker's limited vs unlimited votes it might not be nuts

Posnanski recently had a good column on the same limited/unlimited disconnect:

http://joeposnanski.com/joeblogs/a-hall-of-fame-experiment/

the HOF is also make-believe

nah man, it's real! i've been there and beheld it with mine own eyes!

One of those vote trackers--not sure if it's the only one:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AmkBNPY405WAdFBOUVBhbjNRZjYzbWI2d201bm0tSmc&toomany=true

He's got about 120 ballots on there right now.

ESPN's voters:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12118585/craig-biggio-randy-johnson-pedro-martinez-mike-piazza-tim-raines-john-smoltz-elected-espn-2015-baseball-hall-fame-ballot

Surprised by Raines' strength relative to Piazza and (especially) Bagwell.

2 votes for mussina smdh

Votes can be explained lots of different ways, but I look for internal consistency. I expect Bonds and Clemens to have identical support, whatever that is. I expect Bagwell and Piazza to be very close--both near 100%, both around 70%, whatever, but not separated by 20% (conceding it's a small sample, and that just means two or three votes). With Raines's support so strong, I assume it's a group with a solid sabermetric grounding--and if so, Mussina getting only two votes makes no sense. (Only two votes doesn't even make sense by traditional wins/ERA criteria, not unless you make zero adjustment for era.)

what i want to know is why the h*ck someone votes for bonds but not clemens

― linda cardellini (zachlyon)

i wonder if there are a few voters who are skeezed out by the mindy mccready thing.

had no idea about that

The support that Smoltz is getting (compared to Schilling and Mussina) is just baffling.

Mussina's timing and luck couldn't have been worse. Nine top six Cy Young finishes, but he never won. If Roger Clemens didn't get all that run support in '01 and go 20-3 then he might have won (I think he had the worst run support of any qualified starter that year, or close to it). He joined the Yankees the year after they won 4 WS in five years, and retired the year before they won their next one, so he wasn't a "winner". He starred for those great Orioles teams of the late 90's, but never won a championship because of, yeah, the Yankees. He came into the league just as offense started to spike and retired just as it nosedived. He could have pitched another year or two and maybe hit some round numbers in his career stats (300 W, 3000 K) but didn't. And now he's fighting for attention on the ballot with Unit, Pedro, Smoltz, and others. Just in time to hit the ballot when the eligibility period got lowered from 15 to 10 years. Two years ago his top competition would have been Jack Morris.

that is a perfect storm of circumstances virtually guaranteeing that he won't get in for like, 2 more years?

interesting re: the ESPN voter results (granted small sample size, relative quality of voters, ESPN zing here) that you can't even predict the sanctimony of baseball writers w/much certainty given that piazza gets 13 votes on that list and bonds/Clemens both get 9.

Jay Jaffe's short explanation expanded on in the BP podcast: "Smoltz is famous."

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25288

He thinks Mussina will take 6-8 years.

ha! can't argue with that. was just about to listen to effectively wild

One obvious factor--Jaffe probably mentions this--is how Smoltz is inseparable from Maddux and Glavine for most people. Plus he had those two plus Cox very vocally advocating for him last year. Not saying those things should matter, but they do.

yeah he made a point of highlighting the maddux coattails/90s barves appreciation factor

here's his recent ballot column

http://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/26/jaws-2015-hall-of-fame-ballot-final-ten

Posnanski's rundown and ballot:

http://sportsworld.nbcsports.com/joe-posnanski-hall-of-fame-ballot/

I like that he scrapped strategic voting and just went with the 10 he thought were best. "The Hall of Fame was basically invented so that one day Pedro Martinez would be in it."

With 30% of the vote accounted for, it looks like there might be four this year--Biggio's still at 82%, Smoltz at 86%, and I think they'll both do all right with more traditional (stodgy if you prefer, clueless if you insist) voters who don't make their ballots public. Piazza's at 78% right now, and I expect he'll drop below.

i generally prefer to avoid hall of fame stuff because it's a ridiculous process run by sanctimonious assholes. and never more evident than with the whole 'first-ballot' shit. fuck these guys 4eva

no Tim Raines.
P Martinez, Johnson, Smoltz and Biggio: in.

How much did Piazza miss by? Ludicrous.

Randy Johnson 534 (97.3) Year 1
Pedro Martinez 500 (91.1) 1
John Smoltz 455 (82.9) 1
Craig Biggio 454 (82.7) 3
Mike Piazza 384 (69.9) 3
Jeff Bagwell 306 (55.7) 5
Tim Raines 302 (55) 8
Curt Schilling 215 (39.2) 3
Roger Clemens 206 (37.5) 3
Barry Bonds 202 (36.8) 3

http://bbwaa.com/

hey, Eddie Guardado got a vote

today is yet another day dodger fans punch themselves in the nuts and hate on tommy lasorda for trading pedro for delino deshields

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6rZkUQCEAA1Tli.jpg:large

next year looks like griffey, probably piazza, and hopefully raines. i'm assuming that in 2017 raines would get in if he's still waiting, and maybe vlad?

xp i can't tell if that's meant as a knock on pedro or a salute

lol @ favorite book? "Whatever."

smoltz possibly the first tommy-johned hall of famer?

Earlier in this thread, I predicted 96% for Johnson, 91% for Pedro--good start. Also 65% for Smoltz--bad finish.

that's a nice jump for Raines!

Something I often forget:

"The amazing thing about Johnson's career is where he was at the age of 28. He was 49-48 with a 3.95 career ERA..."

@TimRaines30
To all of the fans and media who continue to support my @BaseballHall candidacy, it's immensely appreciated. Thanks for all the kind words.

Disappointed to see Delgado not even last a second year. He was never going to make it, and (if I'm honest) didn't deserve to, so he only would have cluttered up the ballot. But he was in the running for greatest Jay ever, and judged solely by his actual time in Toronto, probably up at the top with Steib and Halladay.

@AaronGleeman

Barry Bonds' OPS vs. Hall of Famers:

1.138 - John Smoltz
1.064 - Pedro Martinez
1.003 - Randy Johnson

Conversely (from Posnanski):

Edgar Martinez (22-27%): 27.0%
— Pedro Martinez called Martinez the toughest hitter he ever faced. Facts do not back this up; Edgar hit .120 with 0 homers, 0 RBIs and 11 strikeouts in 33 plate appearances against Pedro. But it was a nice thing for Pedro to say.

just saw someone on facebook super indignant that martinez only got 27 percent. lollllllllll at that stat

For those who've been bothered by the logjam: it's clearing. As Omar's post above indicates, there is lots of room for movement on the next three or four ballots.

Next year: Griffey the only automatic debut. (Probably the only debut period to go in, unless Edmonds or Wagner does way down the road.) Leaving an easy path for Piazza, maybe Raines, hopefully Bagwell.

2017: Vlad and I-Rod, although the latter will probably contend with Bagwell/Piazza-like suspicion initially. So if it's just Guerrero, maybe a couple more spots. (I'm assuming Manny is persona non grata).

2018: Chipper and Thome. One or two spots open.

2019: Not up on Baseball Reference, so I'm not sure--just Rivera comes to mind.

2020: Writers will only be allowed to vote for Jeter this year. Skip to 2021.

Anyway, no foreseeable starting pitchers. Schilling and Mussina have lots of room, especially if, as was true this year, four in a year is a possibility.

Is Vlad really a shoe-in? I don't quake much sense. Gotta think I-Rod has seem issue Piazza, Bagwell, et al do.

Lol quake you.

forgot hoffman next year

thx for the Bullock story, jings

Neyer looks at the starting pitcher forecast:

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/baseball-hall-fame-starting-pitchers-mike-mussina-curt-schilling-andy-pettitte-010615

Yeah, missed Hoffman. I'm sure he'll make it at some point, but I don't think right away. (Maybe even after Rivera.) I actually don't think Guerrero's a shoo-in, at least not first ballot. The out-and-out fan part of me wants him to be.

the current bunch of SPs sorted by WAR doesn't reveal a lot of HOF probables or even remote possibles. i count two definites and about ten other longshots.

Mark Buehrle (15, 35) 58.2
Tim Hudson (16, 38) 56.9
CC Sabathia (14, 33) 53.9
Felix Hernandez (10, 28) 45.4
Bartolo Colon (17, 41) 45.1
Cliff Lee (13, 35) 43.3
Justin Verlander (10, 31) 41.7
Cole Hamels (9, 30) 40.4
Clayton Kershaw (7, 26) 39.7
Zack Greinke (11, 30) 39.4
Jake Peavy (13, 33) 37.2
Jered Weaver (9, 31) 36.4
Jon Lester (9, 30) 32.6
Adam Wainwright (9, 32) 32.5
Matt Cain (10, 29) 32.4
Dan Haren (12, 33) 30.6
John Lackey (12, 35) 28.7
Bronson Arroyo (15, 37) 27.2
A.J. Burnett (16, 37) 27.1
James Shields (9, 32) 26.7
Joe Nathan (14, 39) 26.1
Max Scherzer (7, 29) 24.0
Josh Johnson (9, 30) 23.8
Anibal Sanchez (9, 30) 23.6
David Price (7, 28) 23.2
Chris Sale (5, 25) 22.9
Aaron Harang (13, 36) 22.8
Tim Lincecum (8, 30) 22.6
Jonathan Papelbon (10, 33) 22.2
Francisco Rodriguez (13, 32) 22.2
Johnny Cueto (7, 28) 21.9
Kyle Lohse (14, 35) 21.9
John Danks (8, 29) 21.7
Hiroki Kuroda (7, 39) 21.6
Randy Wolf (15, 37) 20.2

distant longshots or too young to call:

Mark Buehrle (15, 35) 58.2
Tim Hudson (16, 38) 56.9
CC Sabathia (14, 33) 53.9
Cliff Lee (13, 35) 43.3
Justin Verlander (10, 31) 41.7
Cole Hamels (9, 30) 40.4
Adam Wainwright (9, 32) 32.5
Max Scherzer (7, 29) 24.0
David Price (7, 28) 23.2
Chris Sale (5, 25) 22.9
Johnny Cueto (7, 28) 21.9

I'm still relatively optimistic about Verlander, although if there's an ongoing health issue, forget it. Sale's off to a great start. And Kimbrel might be the one reliever who's viewed differently.

Mark Buehrle is not getting into the Hall of Fame, but that dude is a pitching machine. You just wind him up and out comes 200 innings.

I think HOF voters will reframe what is considered HOF worthy and take into account the changes that happened in the last few years when it comes to pitching.

CC Sabathia was considered a lock until winter 2013 I'm pretty sure.

Disappointed to see Delgado not even last a second year. He was never going to make it, and (if I'm honest) didn't deserve to, so he only would have cluttered up the ballot. But he was in the running for greatest Jay ever, and judged solely by his actual time in Toronto, probably up at the top with Steib and Halladay.

Yeah this was disappointing. I'm not sure I see the difference between Delgado and Orlando Cepeda (who is in the HOF). By the standards of the HOF, he had a decent case.

Cepeda was a HOF'er through age 26; pretty questionable after that. From what I remember, his reputation rested heavily on perceived leadership and such (he also had to get past a drug arrest, and that took a few extra years). Cepeda's ahead in WAR, largely because of his first few seasons, but Carlos's career looks more impressive to me.

Also, Veteran's Committee--looks like Cepeda maxed out at 73.5% with the writers in his last year.

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/hall-of-fame-2016-class-mike-piazza-barry-bonds-roger-clemens-ken-griffey-jr-ken-rosenthal-010615

rosenthal on this year's HOF: even he's bummed about tim raines missing out

Does Delgado really have a better case than Olerud or Clark who were both dropped pretty quick? Cepeda definitely fringe though....

Cepeda was a key part of 3 pennant winners in the '60s; he's 30th among first basemen measured by JAWS (Delgado 35th; only postseason was with the '06 Mets), so his eventual selection might be fringey but not that surprising. Raw hitting numbers look better on the pitchers' era curve.

If anything Olerud should've at least stuck around longer; 20th in JAWS among 1b, consecutive WS wins with the Jays.

all while playing with a skull made of meringue!

Cepeda and Tony Perez have roughly the same numbers.

I didn't bring up Perez (or Rice) because it's generally agreed that they're weak HOF'ers, by that standard, Clark, Delgado, and Olerud would all be easily deserving of induction.

not sure delgado has a real case, but yeah it seems like he should have stuck around a couple years

if we're not gonna countenance steroid users in the hall, then maybe the non-(proven)-users need some extra consideration. after all, delgado wins the 2003 al mvp and finishes second in 2000, not fourth, if we're disregarding juicers

bill madden: even though he never tested positive and didn't appear in the mitchell report, i won't vote for piazza because opposing players told me he was on steroids

cool story bro

those three are all guys who fall short imo, but it's weird clark didn't make it in some ways bc from '87-'91 he seemed like a definite HOFer. he fell off a bit and the offensive explosion of the '90s kinda overshadowed his excellent later years. also he was even more of an asshole than barry bonds.

yeah the guys who are keeping the alleged roiders outta the hall but not supporting the supposedly honorable guys who played the right way is kind of amazing to me, i'd think crime dog would be trucking along with 50% of the vote if those voters were honest about their intent.

olerud, mcgriff, delgado, none of these people is a hall of famer, come on

olerud's batting helmet belongs in the hof, but that's it

i think what he's saying (correct me if i'm wrong) is olerud, mcgriff, and delgado are only HOFers if you measure them by the perez/rice standard

rosenthal's outrage over delgado's falling off the ballot is pretty ridiculous. he's maybe the 20th best candidate on the ballot, are you really complaining that more people didnt vote for him? are YOU gonna vote for him?

at their peaks (which were brief), those guys were maaaybe HOF caliber. but they're like mattingly in that regard. except his peak was higher (albeit even briefer.)

well delgado's peak wasn't brief i guess, but his stats weren't outlandishly great by the standard of his peers except for a couple seasons.

he was only around for 14 full seasons, i think that's what has done him the most disservice.

See above. It’s mind-blowing when people say that votes for players such as Boone or Erstad indicates that the process is broken. No, it simply indicates that one or two voters chose to make a stand on behalf of a player they admired. Those voters almost certainly had empty slots on their ballots. Who exactly is getting hurt?

uh, guys like piazza and raines?

and delgado!!

the fellas

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B6w6ivVCIAEIF4U.jpg:large

I don't think Delgado dropping off is cause for outrage--none of this is--I just think his career was worthy of something longer than a one-year stay on the ballot. But I'm aware of the contradiction: he only stays on the ballot if enough people vote for him, and if he's not a Hall of Famer, why vote for him (especially on an over-crowded ballot)? I guess I just want these things to magically work out.

Holy cow, Randy Johnson was tall.

yeah you can't defend players' cases based on the lesser guys in there

Perez's "value" numbers are actually a little better than I expected, as his stathead rep is that he got in solely cuz he's in the BBWAA's fave category (1B or OF with big RBI totals).

ie if Olerud had had more power with proportionally fewer hits and walks he might be in.

Holy cow, Randy Johnson was tall.

What, did you think he was called the Big Unit because he had a giant cock?

perhaps at the ceremony he will just hold Biggio aloft instead of his plaque

before I look it up i'm going to guess how many games Biggio caught in the majors. i'll say 120.

He was a catcher for a lot longer than part of a season, no??

man, 428! I had no memory that he caught for his first 4 seasons.

age 26 when he moved to 2B fulltime.

(Was kidding about Randy...)

tbf the big unit may well have had a giant unit

it would have to be in order to appear proportional. it's tough out there for big guys, i bet

nah

man, 428! I had no memory that he caught for his first 4 seasons.

He was a legit All-Star at catcher too!

Re: Delgado, if you're comparing him to the average HOF first baseman he has a case, but no, I don't think he belongs in the HOF based on that standard. But many writers have pointed out that there are now twice as many teams compared to pre-expansion era baseball and about the same number of HOFers being elected per decade. With more great players to pick from, standards are effectively going up which gives Clark, Delgado, Olerud, etc. a better argument for induction.

I can't blame anyone for not voting for Delgado or hell even Raines because they weren't one of the top ten players on the ballot this year. The ten player maximum is a dumb rule but it's the rule.

Biggio was shifted to 2B by Yogi himself:

http://blog.chron.com/ultimateastros/2015/01/06/craig-biggio-notes-yogi-berras-impact-on-legendary-career/

curt schilling is claiming he's losing votes for being a republican, also claiming john smoltz is a democrat, which based on the public record is debatable at best.

curt schilling claims a lot of things.

hmmm – don't see any post about it on twitter, but he is also stumping for Raines at least!

Stopped Clock Theorem.

I imagine Schilling is being marginally punished for being a loudmouth--maybe a handful of votes--but if political leanings have ever entered into HOF or awards voting, I've never read about it. I know there was lots of puzzlement in 1960 when Jackie Robinson supported Nixon, and there was category-unto-himself John Rocker, but I'm sure vocally left-leaning players in the late '60s got far more grief from the Dick Youngs of the media than Schilling would ever get today.

(Especially left-leaning players who didn't look like Mickey Mantle, so to speak.)

yeah, left-leaning players, I barely remember 'em

they read my hof q on BBP podcast today so I got that going for me

i'd guess that the BBWAA votes mostly republican, at least the old guard

most corn fed white boys from bumblefuck arkansas aren't democrats

do they really eat a lotta corn in AR, i thought it was yankees

chitlin circuit then

Mickey Morandini ftw

https://twitter.com/BenLindbergh/status/553576841408020481

my man

The newest members of the Baseball Hall of Fame will be revealed on Tuesday, and three overpowering aces of the 1990s — Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz — seem certain to be cast in bronze in Cooperstown.

Among them, they made 26 All-Star teams and won nine Cy Young Awards. They collected 735 victories and 11,113 strikeouts. Some of the game’s greatest hitters quaked in their presence.

Not Mickey Morandini.

Morandini was a second baseman for 11 seasons in the majors. He once turned an unassisted triple play, and Baseball-Reference.com lists his nickname as Dandy Little Glove Man. He never hit .300 in a season, but when he faced those pitchers, he became Rogers Hornsby. Morandini stepped into the box more than 100 times against Smoltz, Martinez and Johnson and hit .352.
Continue reading the main story
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“There’s just certain pitchers you pick up the ball well against and certain pitchers you don’t,” Morandini said Monday from his home in Pennsylvania. “I can name a handful of pitchers who threw probably 75 or 80 miles an hour, and I couldn’t sniff them. I can’t tell you how many ground balls to second I hit off Bob Tewksbury.”

It is one of baseball’s endearing charms that an otherwise ordinary player can sometimes own a legend. Over three starts in 1965, at the height of his powers, Sandy Koufax was flummoxed by a jocular backup catcher for the Cardinals. The catcher went 5 for 6 with a double and a home run off Koufax in those games, and then Koufax walked him intentionally.

The catcher’s name? Bob Uecker.

Morandini was a better hitter than Uecker, who turned his .200 average into a career in comedy and broadcasting. Morandini, a Class AAA coach who aspires to manage in the majors, batted .268 for his career. He appeared in the All-Star Game in 1995 as a backup to Craig Biggio, who could also be elected on Tuesday.

But while Morandini could handle Smoltz (.344), he was hopeless against Tewksbury (.133). He faced Martinez 30 times and hit .370. He faced Omar Daal 30 times and hit .185. He could always turn on fastballs, he said.

“It was a gift, I guess,” Morandini said. “A lot of repetition, a lot of work.”

The games against Smoltz and Martinez, though, were more fun than work. Mariano Duncan, a right-handed hitter who was Morandini’s teammate with the Phillies, could not touch Smoltz’s slider and dreaded the thought of facing him. Morandini, a left-handed hitter, would play instead and hack at the first fastball.

“Normally when Smoltz got me, he had a good split-finger, and on days when he also had that slider working and it was really sharp, he’d give guys fits,” Morandini said. “That’s why you never wanted to be up there with two strikes off him.”

Smoltz was a master of the postseason, 15-4 in his career, but his first loss came to Morandini’s Phillies in the 1993 National League Championship Series. Smoltz fanned 10 but allowed two unearned runs and a pivotal single to a pitcher, Danny Jackson. Before he could pitch a seventh game, the Phillies won the series in six when Morandini knocked out Greg Maddux with a triple.
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That was also the season Morandini first faced Martinez, before Martinez was traded from the Dodgers to the Expos for Delino DeShields. Morandini would often face Martinez in the N.L. East and remembers how Martinez’s curveball and changeup improved in Montreal, how he learned to pitch and not just throw heat.

Morandini also remembers a brawl when Martinez charged the mound against Mike Williams, firing his helmet in a rage.

“Pedro was just wild enough that you couldn’t get comfortable at times,” Morandini said. “He’d put you on your butt any time he wanted to, and then when he went to the A.L. and didn’t have to hit, he could do it at will.”

Still, Morandini’s fastball-hunting plan often worked. It was less effective against Johnson, whom he faced while playing for the Cubs in 1999. A right-handed hitter, Gary Gaetti, had become ill, putting a reluctant Morandini into action.

“As frightening as it was for some right-handers to face Pedro and Smoltz, that’s how frightening it was for me to face Randy,” Morandini said. “He was dealing. I don’t even think I swung in my first at-bat because I really didn’t see it.”

Yet somehow, after that strikeout, Morandini pulled a first-pitch triple down the right-field line in his next at-bat. His reward: a starting assignment against Johnson the next time the Cubs faced the Diamondbacks. Morandini went 0 for 3 with a walk that day but did not strike out.

Johnson led Arizona to a championship in 2001 with help from Curt Schilling, a teammate of Morandini’s in Philadelphia who is also up for the Hall. The voters have a blind spot regarding Schilling, who has not topped 40 percent in his first two appearances on the ballot despite the best strikeout-to-walk ratio of the 20th century.

“He thrived in big games,” Morandini said of Schilling, who was 11-2 in the postseason. “That’s what he lived for.”

One of the biggest games of Morandini’s career, at least at the time, was on Sept. 8, 1998, when Mark McGwire trotted right by him as he rounded the bases on his 62nd home run. It broke Roger Maris’s single-season homer record and was heralded as an epic moment.

Now McGwire, who has never received even 25 percent of the vote, is in danger of falling off the ballot. Like other giants of the time — Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens — McGwire has ties to steroids that give him little hope of election.

“It’s tainted,” Morandini said. “It’ll always be tainted. There were some of the best athletes to ever play the game in that era, but are they Hall of Famers? Probably, by their stats. But there will always be some issues with what went on, and a lot of those guys obviously aren’t going to make it.”

Still, some players will make it on Tuesday, most likely that group of aces. They all achieved excellence, and they all felt the wrath of a dandy little glove man named Mickey.

"Dandy Little Glove Man" is a great moniker

http://www.warm-mouse-heated-keyboard.com/images/micky.gif

he used to work out with my american legion team when he was home from college. best arm of any fielder i ever met, wasn't enough to stay at short.

aside from his lousy arm, Piazza's defense was pretty damn good

http://mets360.com/?p=24200

unit going in as a d-back

lol'd at first and then remembered that it makes the most sense

good for them

Seems fair. Most successful years were there.

kind of a misnomer for "chooses barely legible logo for plaque"

ie i'm still free to think of him as a Mariner.

also if he left the cap blank ppl would think he was from 1884.

i wasn't really around then but johnson as a mariner just seems like a prelude for the relevant years.

http://i.imgur.com/H54qV01.jpg

i'll just picture this

I said on a Facebook group that even though Johnson is still basically a Mariner to me, he has to go in as a Diamondback; easy call.

it's NOT "going in" -- it's just the goddamn plaque. THERE IS NO OTHER FACTOR INVOLVED IN THIS CHOICE.

yeah shouldn't be surprising that he is entering the hall of fame as a member of the diamondbacks

are you secret zlyon?

he is dead i am the replacement morbs troller

when i visited the hall of fame, i went in as a blue jay!

whatever happened to jqhiggins aka the other orioles fan

i went in as a Brooklyn Bushwick

whatever happened to jqhiggins aka the other orioles fan

― mookieproof, Friday, January 16, 2015 9:43 PM (10 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

he is dead there can only be one

so do i need to watch any speeches from yesterday?

Pedro dancing of course.

also still sad at the non-inclusion of Minoso.

so, fewer voters

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/p-r-or-not-hall-change-is-good-one-072815