2015 NLCS: cubs vs. mets, or: "if you say you predicted this in april, you're a fucking liar"

There is a nice symmetry to the whole thing that if the Cubs are finally going to get to a World Series or get their heart broken again that it be against the Mets considering '69.

as i have said before Cubs.

Even though I didn't start watching baseball until 1970, it's impossible for me not to see this series through the prism of 1969--I spent the first few years of my fandom reading again and again about this legendary summer I just missed. (I have a very vague recollection of my father in 1969 talking about what was happening.)

I'm okay with either. If the Jays weren't in this, I would have been rooting for the Cubs, so slight preference for them. The Jays-Mets, though, would have a great storyline in the big trade of a couple of years ago.

Rooting for Cubs in four ugly blowouts

I can't believe you're lining yourself up against Chipper

i mean LARRY

pond scum > small bears

pond scum?

go mets

I can't believe you're lining yourself up against Chipper

pssshht, he died when he retired. He'll climb out of his coffin someday to become a hitting coach, but feh for now

he did save freddie freeman from dying in the snow that one time

I heard* Freddie's messed up wrist dates back to that snowstorm.

*heard = made up

Excellent matchup, big market perennial underdogs + exciting youngsters + cespedes = must watch

great young kids at the bat vs great young kids on the mound. im rooting for the mets. the way deGrom fought those stress innings in gm5 has been uplifting.

murphy wright and granderson had great at bats against the best in the game.. theyre a tough lineup, man

was looking at the grantland NLCS preview, that Mets lineup is seriously potent. knew they had improved in the back half, but they're serious front to back. ding them for questionable defense, but high-K pitchers v. a high-K lineup and mets should be feeling confident.

what are the matchups looking like? guessing

Lester/Harvey
Arrieta/Matz
Hendricks/Thor
Cubs' trade deadline regret/deGrom

I think thor in 2, then degrom, then matz

xp lol it'll prob be hammel in game 4, who didn't exactly do great in his NLDS start but they can bullpen-game that one, as they did with reasonable success in the clincher

since when has granderson been competent against lefties? I kept assuming he was dead meat against kershaw/anderson/wood and he had like a fucking 1.200 ops in the series against them

granderson was terrible against lefties this season i think, he probably just had a good run over those games for some reason. i thought he was toast after his last two seasons coming into '15 but he was good this year, the second half in particular.

xxxp figured thor would need more time than that, but I guess one inning of relief doesn't really push the needle. and terrible counting by me re deGrom's rest. so series will go:

Lester/Harvey
Arrieta/Thor
Hendricks/deGrom
Hammel/Matz
Lester/Harvey
Arrieta/Thor
Hendricks/deGrom

except the Hammel day, that's a lot of good matchups.

too bad no battle of The Two Jakes

via Jonah Keri

http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20091116052445/muppet/images/f/fa/KeithHernandezandMookieWilson.jpg

@AdamRubinESPN 57m
Imagine Mets want to go to Noah Syndergaard as Game 2 starter, but haven't had chance to make sure he's feeling good after relief appearance

Gilmartin replaces Goeddel in pen

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/10/17/9559889/mets-postseason-sean-gilmartin-erik-goeddel-nlcs-roster

@ESPNStatsInfo: On this date in 1999, Mets beat the Braves in Game 5 of NLCS on Robin Ventura's "grand slam single" in 15th inning http://t.co/uO2prLizC3

Cuddyer at first tonight, Lagares in center

Keith w/ the first pitch

Syndergaard cleared for tomw's start

Jaffe picks Mets on rotation depth

http://www.si.com/mlb/2015/10/16/nlcs-preview-new-york-mets-chicago-cubs-playoffs

Hendricks and Lester seem perpetually undersold. frankly I think each team's top three is a wash: Arrieta/deGrom FIP differential is .35 in Cubs' favor; Lester/Harvey is .13 in Cubs' favor; Hendricks/Thor is .11 in Mets' favor. it's just that Hammel game where Cubs' SP depth is exposed, though there's more than "you can pencil in a loss" at stake there: if that turns into a bullpen game there are ramifications for late innings of remainder.

still not sure how to explain fangraphs' preference for small bears (56/44 odds despite home field for mets). at least one game strongly in mets' favor on SP front, and despite love for cubs' young guys those offenses are both intimidating. even with a slight edge there for cubs (and definite edge in relief) i don't see how that makes up for a game that looks like a freebie for the mets and then some.

(another angle on odds right now: Cubs have highest odds to win WS, despite KC already being up 1-0. seems off.)

shaky start :)

Murphy has 4 HR in a 6-game stretch for the first time in his career

he hit one (1) homer this year off lefties. in the past 6 games, he's hit 2 off kershaw, one off grienke, and now one off lester

amazin'

unlike yr cleanup hitter, Michael Cuddyer

things changed utterly in about 90 seconds there

yeah that was pretty abrupt

laggers totally misjudged that tho

tugged on Superman's cape

these errors are disquieting

ULP

BRUISED THE APPLE

Love Ron Darling making a skee-ball reference there

Mets radio guy did same

‏@jonahkeri
Jon Lester apparently needing to have David Ross catch every game is pretty nuts. Huge downgrade from Montero, especially against a RHP.

great throw, woulda had laggers if montero weren't standing in the mets dugout to receive the throw

lagares

looks like TC is going to use his starter + Familia only any time he can

Schwarber's third straight postseason game with a homer, tying a Cubs record set by Alex Gonzalez

(via Posnanski)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CRoTSvwUYAEj1D5.jpg

dwright

holy shit murph

phwoah

good start

is this Arrieta?

alright, murphy needs to relax

dreamlike

the fringe benefit is DM is pricing himself out of Queens, cuz this aint "him"

his timing on breaking stuff rn is incred

good things those Cy ballots went in 2 weeks ago, or Scherzer might win

are we sure Thor's mom isn't Frances McDormand?

walking Murph to get to Yoenis. Maddon will
be Maddon.

can't believe the score, honestly.

http://www.newyorkmetsreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/gal-70smets-13-jpg.jpg

:(

one more year won't kill you guys

lol Harvey on the phone is one of my favorite things

YES, THIS IS DOG

According to ESPN Stats & Information tracking, Arrieta’s fastball averaged 93 mph on Sunday, his lowest since April 14.

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/35437/jake-arrietas-velocity-dip-spelled-doom-for-cubs-in-game-2-nlcs-loss

leading the league in pitches thrown by over 100

3746 Arrieta
3624 Price

Not unpersuasive write-up from Cameron that Arriet's fine, cold weather + rougher sequencing luck than he had during his tear made it look more like an outlier than it was: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jake-arrieta-is-probably-okay/

Still, took him 95 pitches to get through 5 IP.

on Familia's newish 94 mph splitter:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/no-one-does-what-jeurys-familia-can-do/

Mets monitoring Harvey's swelling right triceps

http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2015/story/_/id/13926495/matt-harvey-newyork-mets-dealing-swelling-triceps

idk how much stock to put into that temperature data. it gets colder later on in the season. and given that it takes a 30+ degree difference in temperature to have an appreciable effect on velocity, i'm not sure you couldn't run those same data but substitute time of year for temperature and get the same result

point being, pitchers wear down over the course of the season

nah, because the correlation is also there for early season games:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/u/images/fastball_speed_delta_by_date.jpg
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/u/images/temperature_by_date.jpg

fear not, it appears sanity will prevail

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/10/19/9570849/mets-rumors-daniel-murphy-contract

from today's BP preview:

DeGrom is slightly more mortal against left-handers, so Fowler, Rizzo, and Montero will all be key matchups to watch.

Hendricks twirled a six-inning masterpiece against the Mets at Citi Field on June 30th, but comparing the Mets' pre-deadline lineup to its post-deadline one is like comparing a Cezanne to your five-year-old’s scribblings.

Duda, Conforto in lineup

Angell dreams of Mets

http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/dreamy

Automatic thread bump. This poll is closing tomorrow.

solid timing on this poll slothro

Who's the guy playing Wide Receiver for the Cubs?

xp ty

small bears do not appear dead yet tho

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vuW6tQ0218

murphy is not a mortal man

yknow, im not the type to judge if he is doing this, but i'm starting to wonder...roids? like he has never hit like this for any stretch of time.

(not seriously wonder so much as be so baffled as to vaguely entertain the notion. in any event its crazy shit)

If you want more on those HRs: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=92015_61&type=hitter

lol cubes

cahills movement on that pitch reminded me of kerry wood

omg for real lol @ cubs

bushivy league

heads up, if hilarious, play by fowler

xp hendricks already pulled

ivy is garbage

thought collins was bout ta get tossed

@tnyfrontrow: What a stupid ballpark; why not put some trees and a sandtrap out there.

gotta love conforto practicing ground rule move and collins arguing ground rule call

Yes, the lunge got him there in time. Hell, next time, long-jump to the bag, or enter the box in a potato sack and hop all the way down.

three-legged race to first base would add a certain je ne sais quoi

maybe duda shd bunt again

jeez both of these lcs series are so one sided, even that sole jays win last night was kind of a disheartening one at the end.

i'll be deeply unsastified without a Colon AB in the whole post-season. the whole season has brought us up to his LCS game winning hit

Kinda hope the Cubs pull this out so that the bailed fans feel like assholes.

such people never feel like assholes, that is what makes them assholes

i agree Wrigley shoulda been imploded in the '70s

ONE WIN AWAY

wrigley is awesome, I hope the cubs redsox04 your terrible team.

Actually they're overmatched, the mets are terrifying and will probably beat the royals.

j/k about Wrigley, i gen like things older than myself (in MLB stadia, down to 3 i think)

Via @ESPNStatsInfo:

Most Ks in first 3 career postseason games in MLB history:
Bob Gibson 31
Tim Lincecum 29
Jake Arrieta 28
Jacob deGrom 27

Daniel Murphy has 6 straight postseason games with a hit, RBI and run scored. Record is 7 by Lou Gehrig, from 1928 to 1932.

(As a rule I detest these cherrypicked records that mix the World Series-only era with the lengthy-tournament era, but if Murphy stood alongside Gehrig I would laugh my ass off at Yankee fans.)

apparently Bill Murray rubbed Maddon's lineup card all over his body the other night, so that's your bad juju right there.

Keri on the planet-eating DM:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/daniel-murphy-wants-it-more/

murph onto the all-time single-season playoff hr list, in significantly fewer plate appearances than his companions

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/Playoffs_batting.shtml

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CR3PczGWwAA-E7a.png:large

regressed to his lowest total base total since 2011, sad

murph onto the all-time single-season playoff hr list, in significantly fewer plate appearances than his companions

http://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/Playoffs_batting.shtml

interesting that it's not Murphy dominating the 2015 postseason records, it's Rasmus and Soler. Rasmus 6th all-time SLG (1.176) and 7th OPS (1.760), Soler 10th in SLG (1.067) and 10th in OPS (1.638)

^those are single season postseason records. for career (40+ PA minimum), rasmus is #1 in SLG, OBP, OPS, and #2 in Batting Average

better than babe ruth:

http://i.imgur.com/Sj2BSi5.jpg

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

time to put this away

damn, that poll result

duda

welp

hope Joe Morgan is watching somewhere, all these manufactured home runs

you may get yr sweep, WmC!

Wrigley was cool. I prefer Fenway. And Yale Field.

how the shit was this 50/50 pollwise? what with you people

schwarber is a delight in the of

Schwarber with truly Dave Kingmanesque defense out there

i can't read yr wishes, Tom!

I didn't vote.

Wide Receiver has cold hands tonight.

you may get yr sweep, WmC!

― skateboards are the new combover (Dr Morbius), Wednesday, October 21, 2015 7:22 PM

ggnnnnnnnghhhh

SHUTDAMN INNING

not Hammel time

There is going to be alot of innings of Cubs sadface tonight.

Christ almighty

lol cubes

ban the new york bear hunt

Matz's pitch count a little too high to pace a no-hitter, but maybe Collins will leave him in

My grandpa, RIP, would be positively glowing right now at this series

ok, a little unnerving...

i dislike those foul territory bullpens

not watching, is there a single cubs fan who doesn't look miserable

ofc it's pretty dire for the Cubs atm, but if there is one team that can have faith in the near future, it's the Cubs

bartolo in line for the W

"Ray Bradbury"

MVP

bartolo in line for the W

― mookieproof, Wednesday, October 21, 2015 10:49 PM (11 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

never liked cappadonna much anyway

MVP

― johnny crunch, Wednesday, October 21, 2015 11:01 PM (8 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

fuck Murphy for real

signed,
mets fan

you gotta be shittin me

ho hum 7 gm hr streak going into the ws

I expected nothing this season so I'll take the series win over the cardinals as a bonus, if nothing else.

ho hum he only disapproves of their "lifestyle" ty jesus

sry i mean 6 gms

Enjoy your little "career," Garbage Time Bryant.

Lol

Early life (edit)
Daniel Murphy was born in Jacksonville, Florida

well there's your answer right there innit

kris bryant will not die sober

I heard the Yankees need a second baseman.

i hope they do sign him, a. bc the mets shouldn't have him any longer than absolutely necessary and b. they will blow a ton of money on him and he will subsequently blow and therefore won't be a prob for the red sox

iirc the red sox like to sign middling players who do well in the postseason

goddamn you and your relative accuracy

fortunately they dont need a 2nd baseman

He just looks so... normal.

maybe they can both sign him and he splits time between the two?

xp its always the quiet ones who have hateful opinions about people their idiotically rigid interpretation of jeezus prevents them from coexisting with

Fowler has been one of the better trades of the summer. Love this guy.

congrats on the pennants Mets. I remember how some of the mets fan here were demolished by the continuous news of needed TJ surgeries over 2014 and this winter, now the pennants is yours! this is awesome. truly awesome. celebrate!

all snark aside, again 'grats to fearless leader morbs, j-crunch and any other ILB mets cru people

ugh go away Wilpons

grats Mets fans. my gramps was a fan of the Amazin' squad, being from NYC and I went to a spring training game or two with him, around the Ron Darling/Howard Johnson/Strawberry era. nice to see y'all back in it.

amazin' amazin' amazin' amazin' amazin' amazin' amazin'

Congrats to the Mets and to Daniel Murphy's hypnotist!

It's so cool to see teams overhaul themselves midseason and turn to a different squad in the second half and the postseason. The Giants won in much the same way, by building around their core players and filling in the holes as the season progressed instead of blowing wads of cash on free agents that are rarely worth the money during the offseason (yeah, the Mets are cheap because of lol Wilpons but still, the process works).

well they did have those pitchers (and Granderson) al year, but i see your point, bb

Sure, those were the core guys but the offense sucked for most of the first half. Then Wright and D'Arnaud came back from the DL, they traded for Cespedes and bullpen help, and suddenly it was a different team. The talent that they put on the field now is a lot better than that of a 90-win team.

As someone whose hometown team recently swept two ALCS and, after breaks of six and five days, played like the fucking 1899 Cleveland Spiders, hope the Mets can stay sharp.

Cespedes aggravated his shoulder doing pushups. :( Expected to be fine for the WS.

Also:

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/10/22/9591252/jeff-wilpon-struggles-to-open-a-giant-bottle-of-champagne

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CR85BW9UYAAn4Go.png:large

rip niese

didnt realize maddon said murphy was better this series than bonds in the 02 ws

deGrom will start Tuesday.

NYT ran a 1908 parody account of Wednesday night's game today. Someone read and tell me if it's funny. (Layout and fonts are nice.)

https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/the-mets-beyond-belief

That's great.

Harvey made it to today's optional workout! Cespedes got a cortisone injection.

@Buster_ESPN 5h
Mets expected to go with a rotation of deGrom, Syndergaard, Harvey, Matz in the World Series, in that order.

apparently Game 1 starter has NOT been officially announced!

missed this re Bartolo:

https://twitter.com/OGTedBerg/status/657055697947987968/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

cute how they'll playing a metaphorical game of keep away from Bartolo in the pic up there

*they're