Definitely not creating overly high hopes in order to set up fans for soul-crushing disappointment: 2016 Chicago Cubs

WE'VE GOT THE FLYIN' HAWAIIAN

rooting for a WS ring for Jason Heyward

ok who here buys into the hype because I don't

it's good for a fan such as yrself to keep expectations low

as a non-fan . . . i guess their bullpen isn't overwhelming? everything else about them scares the living shit out of me

I'm cautiously optimistic and suspect another team will take the crown but that lineup is ridiculous. Their OFers alone, damn.

JCLC, you do know that postseason play is a crapshoot, right? They could win it all in any of the next 5 years, or none of them. It's hard to figure they will not be good for 90+ reg-season wins in four of those years.

I'm nervous about their pitching beyond Arrieta but as long as they keep knocking the Cardinals out of the playoffs I'll be happy.

lotta true outcomes in that lineup

can't wait for a full season of Schwarber in LF

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CeaDTZqUEAAUvYV.jpg

yo i heard you like cubs so

d'awww

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CeaKSLXVIAASXvM.jpg

ten stings

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/03/27/video-jason-heyward-attacked-by-bees-during-sundays-game/

jon lester hit a homer

ilxor on the BP podcast

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28785

good podcast interview, ilxor.

now i want good pizza, too.

the EW FB page had some funny reactions (pointing out Gary Gaetti's lousy WAR)

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2016/04/the-chicago-cubs-and-the-new-baseball/476151/

the EW FB page had some funny reactions (pointing out Gary Gaetti's lousy WAR)

lollllllll

you've started a national conversation about Gary Gaetti

it took me twenty years but it's now my proudest accomplishment

scouting report: Arrieta still built like a brick shithouse

Schwarber out for season

So much for playing out of position, hate to see Schwarber out as he is an IU guy. Losing the left handed bat will hurt, but really with Soler and Baez they got some depth to cover his loss and probably gain on defense. I would think they should still be able to score a lot of runs.

With the Cubs it's usually when they have top pitching when they win. Rotation has a bit of depth, but I think the bullpen could have some questions.

The Cubs lineup is going to be pretty sick. I think they are susceptible to getting shut down by guys that can strike out alot of batters, but they got power through out the lineup.

Already sick imo.

The 2016 Cubs have a very real chance to be the most disciplined lineup we’ve ever seen.

To be clear: when I say “ever,” I’m talking about the post-expansion era, since 1961, and when I say “disciplined,” I’m talking about walks. The Cubs are going to strike out. They might strike out more than anyone. But team strikeout rate has almost no correlation with underperformance. As long a lineup gets on base and hits for power, they can lead the league in strikeouts and be just fine. The Cubs plan to do just that.

So far, this season, the Cubs lead baseball with a 13.1% team walk rate. It’s not expected to stay that high, but it is expected to stay the highest....

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/this-cubs-lineup-might-be-the-most-disciplined-lineup-ever/

I think it's Epstein who said he was really looking both pitchers and pos. player to have excellent strike zone control, like that was the #1 criteria.

well it was a constant for the Red Sox offense in his day.

http://grantland.com/features/chicago-cubs-boston-red-sox-theo-epstein/

being 3-hit by Chad Bettis thru 6 today

Heyward has really put on a clinic the past couple days in right field. Quite impressive.

The Reds pitching staff is pretty much coated in kerosene but still the Cubs offense walloped 38 runs, 48 hits, 11 hrs and took 23 walks in four games against them taking 3 of 4 in Cincy this weekend. It pretty much was a industrial league softball tournament performance by Chicago. It probably won't be the last pitching staff the Cubs make look stupid this year. I have to say I am interested to see the Cubs versus the Dodgers, Mets or Giants in a three game series.

Reds did bash John Lackey once this weekend, as good as he looked the week before he was terrible on Saturday.

Jake the Body on track for another win thru 5, but with some wildness and 92 pitches.

Non-Quality Start

teh hotness

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVDQmsQd5IE

warren g just sang 'take me to the ballgame'

render unto szczur

sure are into their outfits

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/175619910/chicago-cubs-prepare-for-first-theme-trip

Kudos to whoever was in the Riddler costume.

Cubs are underperforming their Pythag by 2 games

https://mobile.twitter.com/ClarktheCub/status/725751497988911104

2016 #Cubs run differential (+93) is 1 run better than 1939 #Yankees (+92) through 26 games. That Yankee team has all-time season best +411

average score of a cubs game this year:

cubs 6.1, opponent 2.5

To put it in perspective, the distance between the Cubs’ run differential and that of the second-best team (the Washington Nationals) is the same as the difference between the Nationals and the 20th-ranked Oakland A’s. Not only is Chicago scoring the most runs in baseball, it’s also tied for allowing the fewest. And as if that wasn’t enough, the Cubs boast the best base running of any team as well.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cubs-start-is-even-more-dominant-than-it-seems/

The Cubs and Sox games are going to be epic this season.

four homers off scherzer

2-2 after 3; it's like a moral victory for the Pads

The bullpen is the weakest part of this team.

addoeh: Are the number of years the biggest holdup for a Arrieta deal with the Cubs? I figure Cubs looking at 4-5 years with Arrieta 6-7 years.

Klaw: Seems like Arrieta wants free agent money/length which would be 6-8 years and there is no shot IMO the cubs do that.

"I picked a good day to be (bad)," Arrieta said.

That was a stressful game.

A third of the way through, Cubs are 39-15. Where some other divisional-era teams were at the same point (and final win total):

2001 Mariners: 42-12 (116)
1998 Yankees: 41-13 (114)
1995 Indians: 37-17 (100 in a shortened season; 112-50 pro-rated)
1986 Mets: 38-16 (108)
1984 Tigers: 41-13 (104)
1975 Reds: 32-22 (108)
1969 Orioles: 39-15 (109)

There must have been a couple of teams that had similar starts and tailed off...can't remember any. The '75 Reds went 80-33 from June 1 forward.

jazayerli on the cubbies https://theringer.com/chicago-cubs-2016-world-series-quest-jake-arrieta-kris-bryant-e68b07657df2#.q63n14dhn

some of this shit is just ridiculous
https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/800/1*jkP_2eFwwdyJoUzfM506Cw.png

i feel like that's driven more by most of their losses being very close than their wins being big blowouts

does that statement make any sense? probably not

despite all the hype this team still makes me (optimistically) nervous. they don't really feel dominant to me. probably just paranoia.

i feel like that's driven more by most of their losses being very close than their wins being big blowouts

― Immediate Follower (NA), Wednesday, June 8, 2016 12:38 PM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

should have read the article first:

The Cubs aren’t winning five out of every seven games by claiming all the close ones. They are, in fact, quite pedestrian in those affairs: After Sunday’s 3–2 loss to the Diamondbacks, they are just 7–7 in one-run games.

Rather, the Cubs are winning by utterly obliterating their opponents. Consider this: The Cubs have lost four games all season by three runs or more. On April 15 they lost to the Rockies 6–1; on April 23 they lost to Cincinnati 13–5 (their only loss all season by more than five runs!); on May 11 they lost the first game of a doubleheader to the Padres 7–4; and last Tuesday they lost to the Dodgers 5–0. That’s the entire list.

By comparison, they’ve won 27 games by three runs or more. That 27–4 mark in such contests is staggering and would easily eclipse the modern major league record if it held.

tbf i can't blame you. but 1/3 into the season is a fair point to start drawing meaningful conclusions and nothing for the cubs looks genuinely unsustainable - the numbers are so high that some regression must occur but i doubt it'll be severe enough to impact their postseason hopes

lol i was gonna mention that it mentioned the close-losses/blowout wins dynamic but you beat me to it

btw the Republican won the 1908 presidential election. FOREWARNED.

Chris Coghlan back to the Cubs, Arismendy Alcantara to the A's.

This Nats series has been intense, the teams match up well.

did anyone watch the "mlb plus" broadcast on tuesday? my pal and i watched a bit yesterday (a day after it aired) and it... felt pretty hacked together, honestly. i'm into all of these cool live stats but if you can't present them in a meaningful way...

Jake in line for another loss, the horror.

otoh will be prominently featured in the imminent ESPN Body issue

Chicago’s current 2.73 team ERA would be the lowest full-season figure in the designated hitter era (since 1973), and the lowest relative to the MLB average since World War II.

This Cubs staff is pretty good at making guys miss — it ranks fifth in the majors in K-BB rate — but that alone isn’t enough to explain such a microscopic ERA. Chicago has also allowed a .254 batting average on balls in play, 42 points below the major-league average and 19 points lower than the next-closest team. If the Cubs were to finish the year that far below the norm, their BABIP would also be the lowest relative to average since World War II. As a byproduct, the gap between Chicago’s ERA and its Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is 0.64 runs, the widest positive gap in the majors.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cubs-pitchers-are-making-their-own-luck/

I'm sure more than a couple fans will get a cool chill the Cubs getting swept at home by the Cardinals after they sober up.

Arrieta has not been sharp lately.

I'm not so sure you could find a better 'small sample size' than adding what Bryant did last night and then earlier in that Arrieta no hitter game.

8-11 2x2b 5xHR & 12 RBIs...that is a couple crazy little league superhero games.

carl (edward)s jr has some serious dadhat

UGH

Prescient thread title I guess.

that insane run differential still has me feeling pretty good but this is a very cub series

They've been pretty bad over the past two-three weeks. Rizzo and Bryant have still been solid but it seems like all the pitchers are regressing at the same time.

they'll be fine

At least they're playing the Reds again.

Wow these July 4 sleeves with the stars are hideous.

they now have 30 homers against the reds in 11 1/3 games

ryan dempster is doing an entire radio interview in character as harry caray during this inning for some reason

so of course it's by far the longest inning of the game

That was Dempster? I didn't know who the hell that was. (He did an inning of tv after radio.)

it could have been a lot worse, tbh

lol Cubs fans, see those eye doctors

Might want to get Rene Rivera to the eye doctor after that throw to third.

It's just a letdown to watch Arrieta pitch with pants on now.

golden sombrero for rizzo

does Maddon use the pen like this in home ties? Strop in 8th, Rondon in 9th?

Might want to get Rene Rivera to the eye doctor after that throw to third.

DONE

rizzo, 451 feet

apparently the double play that Bryant hit into to end the game last night is only the second double play he has hit into this season

rizzo, 436 feet

RIZZO

They kind of suck at stealing bases.

Caught stealing three times today.

@PWSullivan
Joe (Maddon) on Aroldis: "We've all been less than perfect."

Aroldis means goat in quechua.

joe maddon is god

I mean yeah but he's also the one who decided to rest the rotation and bring up Matusz to give up 6 runs in three innings.

Nutty game.

nah, apparently there was something in the deal with bm that he had to be called up by a certain date or be released. also don't imagine maddon's the one who directed that bm be stretched out in the minors.

So glad I got home in time to watch Coughlin and Ross do their thing.

Is everyone caught up on the Tommy LaStella drama

I think the last I read about it was a couple of days ago. Has he showed up to work yet?

not really sure what all's going through his mind, but he seems pretty chill about it

Coghlan trying and failing to call time but still managing to hit the two-run single was pretty badass/funny

https://vine.co/v/5bQLObJFwPi

As great as the Cubs are, they're still running five games behind their Pythagorean(78-36), which projects them for 111 wins.

@ESPNChiCubs
The Cubs say they unintentionally played the song 'Smack My Bitch Up' last night when Aroldis Chapman walked off...

apparently more upset about the playing of a song in context of who the pitcher is than the original actions of said pitcher.

la stella has reported to double-a tennessee

Bryant with a 5-for-5 day, 12 TB

seems like he might be the favorite for NL MVP right now.

WAR top ten (before today)

1. Bryant (CHC) 5.5
2. Bumgarner (SFG) 5.3
3. Kershaw (LAD) 5.0
4. Scherzer (WSN) 4.8
5. deGrom (NYM) 4.7
6. Rizzo (CHC) 4.6
7. Seager (LAD) 4.5
8. Arenado (COL) 4.4
9. Marte (PIT) 4.3
10. Arrieta (CHC) 4.3

the dinosaur counting stats crowd likes Murphy too

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--757bEu90--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/tg5vlwgckl9ct1p4jkbk.jpg

someone *really* likes baseball!

calling up Willson Contreras has worked out pretty well

Bryant's looking like a unanimous MVP pick.

First Rizzo HR in August today.

Think that's just his second for the last two months. Pretty crazy drop-off from the beginning of the season (has 25 total now). Fortunately he's still been hitting well but I wonder why he has lost the home runs recently.

Also they're letting La Stella come back so I guess they're being chill about that whole thing.

"Go Cubs Go" really blows

Duh

I'm leaving this thread now.

40 games over .500

gonna be hilarious when they get swept in the nlds

As of now, they would play the Dodgers (#3) or would they play the Wild Card team?

top record gets the wild card (regardless of said wild card's record)

eg last year the cardinals, with MLB's best record, got to face the winner of the wild-card game between MLB's second- and third-best teams

Even with the Giants being a basketcase the past month or so, Bumgarner and Cueto is a tough 1-2 to face in a short series. Cubs losing to the Cards in the playoffs would probably be the biggest kick in the crotch. Dodgers swept them the year they were really good with Pinella.

Rizzo hitting homers again.

Miguel Montero DHing today. u crazy Joe

Rizzo now at 31 HR and 101 RBI, which was his record for all of last season

starting to think they might win the division

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whos-responsible-for-the-cubs-incredible-pitching-stats/

http://deadspin.com/poorly-disguised-theo-epstein-takes-in-cubs-game-from-b-1786731895

Beat the Brewers today using almost only bench players, no Bryant, Rizzo, Zobrist, Fowler, or Heyward, and with Russell pinch hitting in the ninth

so sad to see arrieta fall off like this

Should have never have pitched naked that time.

http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2016/09/21/ricketts-family-donates-1-million-to-a-donald-trump-super-pac

one more reson to root for the best team to get knocked on its ass?

i wonder who the Wilpons wd give money to if they had any?

well there's my silver lining if (when?) the cubs flame out in the playoffs.

pretty much all sports team owners are awful though right

like all presidential candidates, a spectrum of awful

I don't know how the family's money works but I know that Laura Ricketts is very liberal so I wonder what kind of feedback she had on this decision.

She held a Hillary fundraiser in July so I'm guessing she's not part of the Trump donation.

i like david ross and am glad (i guess) he's having a good final year but dag there's a lot of fuss being made about the impending retirement of a career .229-hitting backup catcher who's only in his second season with his current club

But his beard is gray

This man is a legend

Walks around like he's Tom Lampkin.

It is players like him that makes baseball beautiful.

5-year extension for Theo

never heard about Ross's retirement til today

1988 dodgers are the last world series champions with a regular-season tie

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ctp6WHgWgAAzU7C.jpg

welp

http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-physics-of-october-baseball-in-wrigley/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-cubs-stack-up-within-baseball-history/

What this is saying: The Cubs were almost inarguably the best baseball team of 2016. I know some people believe the playoffs manage to crown the best of the best. I get it; I treasure the playoffs, too. But the playoffs are different. They measure something else. Some might say they measure very little at all. When teams are constructed, it’s with the regular season in mind, and the Cubs just steamrolled their way through from start to finish. Every regular season has a best team, but relatively few regular seasons have a best team as dominant as this year’s best team. You could say the Cubs were the most outstanding baseball team in two decades.

Some might say they measure very little at all.

I always find this irksome! They measure who wins the games that get played.

well yes, that's the implication. but in a sport where the worst team in the league could beat the best team in the league in a 5-game series something like, idk, 30-40% of the time, it doesn't really measure who the "better team" is. basketball and even football are better at this

I would actually question those numbers. Maybe it would happen in that range in the regular season.

And the whole thing would be different if it were, like you describe, the worst team in the league getting a shot at a championship versus a team that won a division or something, but obviously it's not.

I would say, on the whole, I'm not as interested in who the best team is and more interested in who wins games.

I think the only reason someone would argue that basketball and football are better at it is because of the variance in baseball with pitchers. Otherwise, "On any Sunday..." etc.

variance with pitchers and relative paucity of scoring

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/news/cubs-announce-jon-lester-will-start-game-1-nlds/

Lester, Hendricks, Arrieta, Lackey the lineup for NLDS (in that order)

relative paucity of scoring

You're suggesting that this, compared with say basketball, makes it more likely for the team that's worse to win a game? I'm not sure I understand the logic in that. If the Golden State Warriors project to score 100 in a game with the 76ers and the 76ers project to score 60, why does that mean they're more likely to win a game than a good baseball team that projects to win over a team that's worse by an average score of 5-3?

Also not sure there's more scoring in football? Maybe there is a little bit but obviously in a 24-21 game there were seven scoring plays.

Now that I think of it, maybe you're right. I guess the reasoning would be that there would be more variances from the norm on plays for the 76ers to win.

Don't mean to be argumentative.

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/2011/07/14/UeSQcgev.jpg

Newhart said he first visited Wrigley Field when he was six or seven years old and grew up going to games with his mother. And when the Cubs won their most recent National League pennant in 1945, a 16-year-old Newhart was among the fans celebrating during the team’s victory parade.

“They had this big motorcade down LaSalle Street, and I was there in the crowd, cheering the victorious Cubs -- that’s before they had divisions and all that -- before they played the Detroit Tigers,” Newhart said. “So I was there and I’m cheering, yelling to Phil Cavarretta and Stan Hack and Nicholson, Andy Pafko in center field. And they’re all waving back. It was great.”

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/bob-newhart-at-87-is-hoping-the-chicago-cubs-finally-win-a-world-series-101216