2016 ALDS Death Match: Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays

a bit torn... hate the Rangers but would rather the Mets play em in the WS :)

Rangers, because Beltre and Beltran.

Rangers throughout the playoffs unless the Mets win the pennant.

Honestly this isn't post-wild card game excitement talking, but the Rangers could be the worst 95 win team I've ever seen. They were one blowout loss away from being outscored on the season, and only the Twins and A's (two terrible teams) gave up more runs in the AL this year. The only thing separating them from fringe wild card contenders like the Yankees is their all time best record in one run games.

Anything can happen in the playoffs and they might even sweep the Jays but I still stand by that.

Just seconds ago Gibbons said "They had the best record in the league--that doesn't just happen by accident."

In this instance, it did kind of happen by accident.

only the Twins and A's (two terrible teams) gave up more runs in the AL this year.

That might be on the back end of the rotation mostly? Dyson/Diekman/Bush/Barnette/Claudio looks like a pretty tough bullpen.

Bullpen-wise, when you get past those five, you've got a lot of inflated ERAs, too. Five bullpen pitchers can maybe get you through the postseason, though.

A great bullpen partly explains winning all those close games. Plus Darvish was injured for part of the year, and starting pitching depth (which the Jays have, more so than the Rangers) doesn't always help in the playoffs when you only need 3-4 good starters.

The Rangers play in a weaker division (47-29 vs AL West) and I still think the Jays are better offensively 1-9.

In this instance, it did kind of happen by accident.

― clemenza, Wednesday, October 5, 2016 12:26 AM (twenty-seven minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

It is probably a better mindset to see them as worthy 95 winners. No one wants to look as foolish as the AL opponents of the 2014 Royals.

Even those Royals with their amazing bullpen were 22-25 in one run games. And nobody could have known they'd turn into power hitters in the playoffs.

Blue Jays

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Would have voted Blue Jays.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CuHKpK4UkAA-Uny.jpg:small

Pulling for the Blue Jays in this one.

hamels hangin some curves

Jays getting some lucky breaks here!

slap Cole silly

ian desmond did not know where that wall was

This is great.

Beltre missing Donaldson's line drive was a play you expect him to make (it was a rocket though), but most of that inning was Hamels pitching like garbage. He was missing his spots by a foot on every other pitch.

Can't remember the last time the Jays had a big lead early on. I think there might have been such a game mid-September.

feel like the shadow may have affected beltre slightly

that was the 14th bases-loaded triple in playoff history

that strike three on choo was abominable

more like hole hamels amirite

guess they can't all be one-run games

Why did he even start the 4th good grief he had nothing

@AndrewSimonMLB
Last pitcher to give up 7+ runs in no more than 3.1 IP in a home playoff start: Angels' Jarrod Washburn, 2004 ALDS G1 vs. Boston.

Here come the Texas Rangers.

Is TBS' homerism for the Rangers getting on anyone else's nerves, or is it just me?

Are the Rangers aware of the score?

Not challenging that tag proves it

A Marco: the stat formerly known as a Maddux.

how many times as it been done in the playoffs?

No Jays pitcher has thrown a complete game this season.

https://sportslistoftheday.com/2013/09/18/mlb-pitchers-with-the-most-shutouts-in-postseason-history-and-every-playoff-shutout-ever/

That's a full list of shutouts up till 2013, VHS--have fun, please report back!

Are they going to drill Bautista tomorrow? As stupid as that is, I wouldn't be shocked.

http://groundballwitheyes.blogspot.ca/2012/04/maddux.html

As I said, there are only full regular season pitch count records since 1988, so that's the starting point for things here, but pitch counts were kept in the playoffs a few years earlier than that. For the years in which we have official counts, there has been just one postseason Maddux though, thrown by Bret Saberhagen in Game 7 of the 1985 World Series, when he shut the Cardinals out on just 92 pitches and won himself World Series MVP honors. (Don Larsen's perfect game in the 1956 World Series reportedly took just 97 pitches.)

Estrada at 95 pitches, unlikely but possible.

That's a fantastic page you dug up there...Zane Smith and Bob Tewksbury #2 and #3 on the list--ahead of a Hall of Famer and a guy who's headed there, behind the guy who gave the stat its name.

Aargh, really wanted to see him get the shutout.

They were one blowout loss away from being outscored on the season, and only the Twins and A's (two terrible teams) gave up more runs in the AL this year. The only thing separating them from fringe wild card contenders like the Yankees is their all time best record in one run games.

So, after 163 games, the Rangers have won 95 games and been outscored on the season. They're a .500 team that got lucky.

The Rangers were supposed to have a starting pitching edge, but their "ace" (who was terrible the last month of the season) just got shelled, and now we've got Happ + Sanchez vs Darvish and whoever they dredge up for game 3 (starter TBD). I'll take those matchups.

Can you be that lucky over 163 games? I know clutchness is a dirty around these parts but surely it's a mix of both. It can't be all the one or the other.

It can be partly a mix of both (e.g. having a strong bullpen to protect leads) but the dominant factor is luck.

And the Rangers' bullpen, by today's standards, seems good but nothing particularly special.

the rangers would like cole hamels to be like jon lester but he's basically cj wilson.

he's like jon lester with an extra 10 WAR you mean?

ace my balls and WAR be damned that bastard killed my fantasy staff ~

Rangers now have a negative run differential on the season 0_o

They didn't win the division just by beating up on the Angels and A's. They were 12-7 against the Mariners and 15-4 against the Astros. They won the season series against the Tigers and Indians, tied the Red Sox and Blue Jays. They were 6-1 against Kansas City. They were 13-7 in interleague play.

Think they lost the season series to the Jays by a game, but were outscored by plenty.

Jays beat them 3-1, 4-3, 12-2, and 5-0; Texas won three one-run games, 2-1, 6-5, and 7-6.

Right, sorry. They were 4-3 against Baltimore, though, too.

Of their 67 losses this year:

29 were by four runs or more
18 were by six runs or more
10 were by eight runs or more

At the beginning of July, they had a stretch of nine days where they lost to the Twins three times by scores of 17-5, 10-1, and 15-5 and lost to the Red Sox 11-6 and 12-5.

(Just to clarify, the 29 includes the six-plus run margins and the eight-plus run margins, and the 18 includes the eight-plus run margins.)

time for some 1-run wins then

only have radio access, p sure i can't take 3 hrs of Berman and Sutcliffe

Tulo!

tulo now 4-for-6, 5 RBI

"It hasn't been 24 hours."

Berman and Sutcliffe actually discussing Martin's pitch framing, o brave nu world

J.A. happ remains puzzling to me

Pilar getting in on the fun!

http://fat.gfycat.com/InbornSereneAbalone.gif

pillar's inspiration

And now Carrera?!

poor darvish, another victim of the parrot man

good lord did edwing hit that ball hard

Yu Porcello.

what is happening

Joe Morgan shaking head over lack of smallball

@darenw
Kevin Pillar's HR was 4.2ft high... There were only 2 HRs hit higher than that pitch ALL season.

I was starting to feel a bit guilty, with Happ giving up hits all over the place but somehow only one run, whereas Darvish made just the one mistake to Tulo. But now the mistakes are starting to pile up (except for Pillar's, WTF was that).

prescient

https://theringer.com/the-blue-jays-want-to-homer-their-way-to-glory-b709906427d2#.hx1wbmueq

Typical Gibbons, trying to squeeze one inning too many out of his SP.

Although given our bullpen options, I'm not sure it wasn't worth a try (they pitched way over their heads in the WC game).

We've got a PD day today--workshops, no students--and in the middle of a full-staff math presentation by one of our resource teachers, our principal jumped up and half-yelled "Home run, Tulowitzki!"

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/kevin-pillar-hit-a-stupid-home-run

I don't know who made the dumber play, Desmond or Donaldson.

desmond, for not just going but hesitating first then going

The Jays don't really have anyone left to bridge to Osuna if Liriano gets hammered here.

this seems unwise, three run lead or not

Liriano didn't pitch well, but at least he's not seriously hurt after that comebacker.

At this point I'm wondering why we're carrying Tepera, Feldman, and Loop if they're not to be trusted unless it's the 17th inning and/or a blowout.

another weird passed ball

Tepera and Loop sighting! I wonder what it would take to get them in the game. Unless this game is tied going to extras, I'm guessing Gibbons sticks with Osuna win or lose.

melvin shoulda had that

rally cap on

I was almost in full panic mode when it was 3-1 to Odor.

That was a man-sized save by Osuna. Good thing there's a day off tomorrow.

@richardjustice
Francisco Liriano being taken to hospital. #ALDS

Oh dear.

He'll need an X-ray as a precaution at least, and hopefully that's all there is.

Had to listen to the last two innings in the car--nerve-wracking. It seemed like a game they were destined to lose the way the offense shut down after the big inning.

Go Indians (even though I'm now worried we're going to catch them during the year that makes up for 50 years of a city's sports misery).

Liriano out a week, replaced on roster by Danny Barnes

He can return for the ALDS I think.

yep

When Edwin's hot, he's unbelievable.

You just know this reliever for Texas with the porno stash and party in the back hair has a bitchin' ride.

Oh, those bases on balls.

Sanchez ain't right. This is looking like his last inning, which means Gibbons will try to squeeze another one out of him.

See I knew Sanchez was getting stronger as the game went on. Who wanted to pull this guy?

swinging at first pitch might be dubious there

That was brutal.

we're looking at two of those rare postseason teams that don't have bullpens, aren't we?

Why wasn't there a lefty to face Moreland???

When Sanchez walked Odor (who never walks) they HAD to pull him.

Pillar finally missed one. (Would've been a great catch, obviously.)

not quite the vibe of the 15-14 (?) WS game vs the Phillies, but gettin there

Barney rescued by that WP

Mazzara made a running catch, Pillar just missed making the catch ... game of inches, if it goes the other way, that's a four run swing there.

i'm glad they don't play with 40-man, 18-pitcher rosters here

Thx to the Rangers for swinging at everything vs Osuna and keeping his pitch count low so he can pitch the 10th if we don't score here.

welp

Bush vs Osuna is a pretty good showdown so far

we're looking at two of those rare postseason teams that don't have bullpens, aren't we?

No. Seven innings no earned runs for TX so far 2day.

The Jays need to win it here because I have no clue who pitches the 11th if they don't.

Little too much admirin' there, Josh.

Pretend the ball is Matt Bush.

One inning in 16 with earned runs so far in the series.

Oh!

Aw, poor Matt Bush.

One inning in 16 with earned runs so far in the series.

― timellison, Sunday, October 9, 2016 10:53 PM (three minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i have no idea what this is referring to

TX relievers had given up earned runs in one inning of the sixteen they had pitched up until that inning.

Seventeen now with the error.

The mad dash.

wow nice finish

runner slid at bag, entirely legit afaik

Hey, I scooped the interviewer.

Putting the ball in play!!!

I can't believe they left Matt Bush out there to dry. Where was Dyson? Bush was obviously overthrowing.

What an exciting ending. Bush was so close to escaping too.

oic xp

i hate the blue jays but fuck if i'll ever feel bad for matt bush

may the cubs destroy the american league, just completely end it, i don't even care about how stupid it is to still not have the DH anymore

Would have loved a Dyson-Bautista rematch, but this is A-OK.

Hadn't even thought about the beauty of it ending on a botched DP attempt by Odor.

That, and a one run loss for the Rangers.

and Bush taking the L.