Mr. Biagini, Mr. Joe Biagini: The 2017 Toronto Blue Jays

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFqov8a9iL4

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XdT8lnJL38

http://68.media.tumblr.com/bad035f5b3025fb5468e81b3e4af6821/tumblr_ocqx3frDcM1tx72cpo1_500.gif

Also works with Chris Cannizzaro, Bob Apodaca, and John Boccabella.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlOsnlnr33I

Bautista looks helpless up there--9 strikeouts in 19 AB this year.

ya. it's starting to hurt to watch him. he seems to still have an eye for the zone tho, and he looks p decent out there in right – so hopefully he'll start connecting soon.

Taking injuries into account, Bautista has never really had a bad year, at least offensively, since 2010. He was a bit spotty in 2016, but still retained most of his best qualities at the plate (BB% stayed excellent; ISO dropped off, but still close to 2013-14 levels) battling injuries. Who knows, could be looked back on as the beginning of the end or an anomaly. I tend to believe he'll have a characteristically strong year.

It was misleading of me to say he looks helpless--in the six or seven strikeouts I've seen, he's taking good hard swings. He's not being fooled or anything, they're just blowing fastballs by him. He's missing the ball.

Donaldson dinged, eh?

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2694301-josh-donaldson-exits-game-vs-rays-with-apparent-leg-injury

Do you give a damn about your bad reputation? I don't think i've been to a night game there...

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/toronto-the-rude-jays-fans-are-the-broad-street-bullies-of-baseball/article34641590/

i stopped going to the home opener years ago. too much of a shit show. i've never had a problem, personally, but i want to strangle half the people there. just general shit behaviour. i wouldn't qualify it as dangerous tho.
tho, nothing i have ever seen at a ball game has been worse than the time we saw the seven year old kid get called a little piece of shit at that yankees game.

yes, that was one for the books, TT.

Man. What a shit start.

Rational or not, seems like a textbook early-season managerial firing. Going to guess that Gibbons doesn't see May.

Every game except for one has been close though. The offense shouldn't be this bad, but it is an old offense (almost every regular is on the wrong side of 30) so a sudden collapse wouldn't be too shocking.

If the team starts 5-15 then Gibbons probably will be fired, but up until now this is more the fault of the GM and the cheap ass ownership.

.565 OPS

(xpost) Yes--they could just as easily be 5-2, and firing the manager is almost always just a we-have-to-do-something move. Between lingering disappointment over last year, the new regime, and the bad start, though, I suspect he doesn't have a lot of leeway. (The grumbling would be even worse if Edwin had gotten off to a huge start, but that's not part of the picture for at least the time being.)

That, and Morales is off to a decent start. Like Morbs said, you can only complain so much about the managing when the team OPS is 565.

Bautista will make adjustments and Russell Martin won't hit .000 all season long, but the offense fell off significantly between '15-'16, although it was partly hidden by coming down from such a high ceiling in '15 and the continued brilliance of EE and Donaldson.

well
we're fucked.

About the only thing they have going for them right now is all the attention on the Leafs and Raptors.

Anyone know how to use Play Index to generate a list of all the 1-8 starts in history? There must be one or two of them a year. I'd like to splash some cold water on a friend's belief that this is just a typical lackluster start for the Jays--I bet that, with very few exceptions, 1-8 starts lead to dismal seasons.

I'm interested in the awful-start idea, so I went ahead and (laboriously) answered my question above.

http://phildellio.tripod.com/index.html

They won today, which shouldn't really change anything.

Wow. Have to go back to 1983 to find a winning record.

I do think they're a lot better than their start because the pitching has been excellent (only four AL teams and two NL teams have allowed fewer runs). But those nine losses are in the books, so even if they're a 90 win team on paper and play at that level for the rest of the season, it still only gets them to 85 wins.

eric wedge is staring at his phone every five minutes

well
we're fucked.

(Sanchez AND Happ goin on the DL)

So when do the Jays trade 2LO and Donaldson?

A few minutes later, he told me that he plans to get a giant image of a lion wearing a crown tattooed on his chest. Before I could finish the word “Why?” he snapped his head in my direction and barked menacingly, “Because I’m the king of the fucking jungle.”

http://torontolife.com/city/life/home-josh-donaldson-blue-jays-resident-hothead

I was down there last night. My friend and I cut out after the 8th, missing the near-comeback. Felt completely uninvolved in the game. (xpost) I agree with Wilner--realistically, you have to tinker in baseball. A #1 draft pick won't save you, and unless you're willing to write off the next few years--negating all the reawakened interest of the past two seasons--a fire sale leaves you nowhere. The second wild card underscores that.

With two wild cards and a high level of parity in the game, nobody is more than two or three seasons away from contending. Unless your franchise is a disaster, staying the course and tinkering is the best strategy these days. With hardly any long term contracts on the roster, the Jays have plenty of roster flexibility, which isn't to say that the cheap ass owners plan to do anything useful with that.

i have to admit, i can't stop thinking about what a rebuild would look like. i'm excited to see how Vlad develops and beyond him, the Jays have some decent, good-but-not-elite prospects. Alford, Telliz, Urena, Gurriel, Foley, Bichette, McGuire, Zeuch etc – there's great depth there, although not a lot of "buzz"-worthy names. if they could add one or two top prospects at the deadline, i think we'd have a pretty exciting team in a few years.

seems like a "big" April win if they can pull this one out.

joey sombrero

he is making me, and my two year old, very sad.

I checked the boxscore last night just before turning in, and Bautista was 0-4 and down to .102--figured I'd be posting in the morning about his possibly historically brutal (for a player of his caliber) start. Surprise, surprise.

I listening to the whole thing.

I guess it's still early, but Pillar and Bautista are both at -0.1 dWAR for the season. Something seems fishy.

After last night, they've lost six games by one run and four by two runs.

I know Stroman's off to a pretty good start, but the ceiling on how good he can ever be over a full season would seem to be ordinary at best if he's striking out fewer than six batters per nine. Is there any starter who's effective nowadays with that kind of strikeout rate? In Fangraphs WAR list for last year, no one in the Top 30 had a K rate lower than 7.32; in the top 50 the lowest was 6.01, which is a little better than Stroman's rate right now. That belonged to Bartolo Colon.

Fangraphs as always been underrating that kind of pitcher (the groundout/sinker expert), something even they aknowleged at some point (covering Buerhle I think).

But then using fangraphs leaderboards, in k/9, Stroman isn't far away from Porcello, Quintana and Tanaka in 2016, I mean if he becomes that kind of ace over the next 3-4 seasons, the Blue Jays are over the moon.

Hard to say where he settles in--he's had two years over 7.0, one year between 6.0-7.0, and this year he's at 5.6. Maybe there are still (rare) exceptions, but Buerhle at his best goes back 10-15 years, and even there, he was ever one of the 10 best starters in the game? Maybe he grazed that list once or twice. I'd use Baseball Reference's list of last year's best starters for the same comparison, but their new design (which I hate) makes that difficult.

Maybe Stroman can have a Buerhle-like career, I don't know. I think he needs to keep his K-rate up near 7.0, though, to be anything more than a #3 starter.

("was he ever one of the 10 best"--transposition)

i've never seen a runner score like Coghlan just did! Leapt right over Molina (clipping him on the head).

That was unbelievable

Instant classic

Lovely.

Can't believe that worked

no bench for extras :/

I want to go to bed, but now I'm worried I'll miss some other ridiculous play.

Stroman pinch hitting. I can go to bed now.

!

Pinch hit double

Double?!?!!?!!!

Man or ass Stroman

man

lol i don't think coghlan touched third

classice mookie comment

yes, classice.

that slide was amazing

First jays game I've caught this season that I've enjoyed but at the back of my mind is the thought "they won this with a crazy slide, a pinch double by a pitcher, and two(?) runs scored via errors. Don't get excited".

welp

;_;

ah it's ok the next game starts in 1hr 45m. sure it'll go swimmingly. and no, there will be no relievers doing double-shifts today.

Team looks into the abyss, abyss looks back.

I'm ready to write off the season now.

the abyss boo's.

my facebook as awash with friends trying to unload tickets.

come see the Mets and i'll try to get up there this summer

'sanctuary ballparks'

ha ha! my partner is brown - 100% not crossing that boarder anytime soon. sorry. would love to come back to new york tho, maybe i'll come down for a long weekend with my kid post-impeachment.

well i'll have to rob a bank and come to Ontario then.

well, we have an air b n b bachelor in our basement that comes with a hefty ilx discount if it helps!

apparently jarrod saltalamacchia's jays career is over

1-for-25, 1 BB, 16 K, -80 wRC+, 0-for-9 vs base stealers, -0.7 bWAR, -0.5 fWAR in 10 games

RIP saltalamacchia

He had a good name

Sanchez was pulled after 13 pitches today.

Didn't realise how bad of a season Devon Travis is having, holy mackerel.

tbf, it is hard to discern who's doing especially bad in that lineup right now.

Mr. Biagini, Mr. Joe Biagini.

I don't get it. The more guys get injured - the better they do!

... and the wheels have fallen off again. I'm not one to get uptight about stuff like bat flips, but the last innings of a third straight blowout loss on the road against a last place team is a *really* bad time to start showboating.

It's so egregiously uncalled for (still haven't seen the clip) that I almost wonder if it was meant solely to stir up the Jays.

I think it was meant to stir up José.

the first bench-clearing incident which was precipitated by pillar calling the pitcher a faggot seems like a greater problem to me but ymmv

yikes.

Dumb comment I made about Bautista. You can't stir up the team when probably most of them thought the bat-flip was ridiculous.

Surprised at Pillar--just doesn't go along with everyone's perception of him. In general, I have mixed feelings about suspensions for saying stupid or hurtful things. If other players want to treat him like a pariah, fine, if sponsors want to bail, that's fine too. If a pitcher wants to drill him with a pitch, fine; if the pitcher's gay, even better. A suspension just seems like an empty gesture that's meant to wish away the incident. I don't know, maybe it's the best of a bunch of imperfect options.

his apology was a bit crappy, "i was angry blah blah" instead of you know, just straight up saying "i shouldn't have said that thing because it's offensive". but like, i dunno, the jays as far as i know don't do pride stuff or basically any hat-tip to the gay community at all - when even hockey teams do so- so maybe they could consider those kind of steps?

assiduously avoiding social media hot-takes about this which will be all pc/snowflake etc. lot of dumb fucks who want sports to be their safe space

(badly phrased i specifically mean dumbasses using the terms pc and snowflake complaining that he's even been made to apologize)

If the apology's sincere, I'm all for it; if he's apologizing for no other reason than he's supposed to, it's meaningless. When some student gives me a fake apology over something--the behavioural teacher often standing beside him/her, prefacing it with "Such-and-such would like to say something..."--I usually respond with the most lifeless "Fine" I can muster. It's meaningless.

I was thinking about Elvis Costello. He said something really stupid in 1979. The record company didn't fine or suspend him (that I can remember anyway); he did spend the next couple of decades and beyond haunted by the comment, trying to explain it and live it down. That's a much better consequence.

i still tell that story about elvis costello to anyone who will listen!

I should have been watching--Teheran plunked Bautista.

he took it like a champ. then scored.

big story from tonight is the Stroman home run!

also: Ceceliani (sp?) dislocated his shoulder hitting a home run. our b-team is starting to go down now.

jays have apparently called up anthony alford from double-a

Truth be told, a month ago I thought Bautista was finished for good. Thus far in May, including today:

.313/.421/.638, 7 HR

have to admit – I've had a minor man-crush on Alford for a while now. he has like, all the talent of Gose, but with a fucking brain. Someone said Coco crisp would be his ceiling comp, and that sounds about right to me.

whatever happened to mississauga's own dalton pompey?

concussion in spring training, still on DL iirc

looking more and more like his 2015 was a bit of an aberration tho, regardless of concussion.

yes, i don't think he would be expected to play, barring injuries

17-10 over the last month

seems close to 'true talent'

so that was some game today.

Stroman went into the game tonight 4th in the league in run support:

http://stats.nesn.com/mlb/getleaders.asp?rank=085

Reds starting pitching, good for what ails you.

Meaningful if you know the Skydome: Donaldson hit one into the 500s tonight.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/233384126/josh-donaldson-homers-into-fifth-deck-vs-reds/

holy shit! he must have been charging up the last several weeks

one win off .500

the jays low-A squad has the teenage sons of dante bichette and vlad guerrero, both of whom are absolutely tearing it up

yeah vlad jr is the top prospect for the jays apparently

i read a scouting report of his and he has like the exact same tools as his dad, lol. great bad-ball hitter, lots of power, huge arm

bo bichette's line in 64 pro games/283 plate appearances: .396/.456/.656

and he's two years younger than average in the leagues he's been in

and he's a shortstop, though he might be borderline there ultimately

insane

If Justin Smoak improbably keeps this going, he'll pull off one of those great Rich Aurilia/Jim Hickman-type outlier seasons:

Going into 2017 (per 162 games): .223/.308/.392, 21 HR, 65 RBI, 95 OPS+
2017 (projected): .288/.350/.559, 38 HR, 109 RBI, ~135 OPS+

I guess he always had decent power pro-rated.

judge just hit a 116.2 mph screamer that basically went right through pillar's glove

Guess Grilli didn't have it today.

Bo Bichette went 7/8 in Lansing's doubleheader today and is now hitting .400 and slugging .645. He only turned 19 in March. #BlueJays

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) June 16, 2017

him and Vlad Jr have me fucking pumped.

God, I wish this team would get to .500.

they can do it tonight – and pass Baltimore & possibly tie the Rays.
in theory.

Yes--definitely in theory.

blue jays fans: "hey, this disaster may be ending!"
blue jays: "hold my beer."

i'm going to the game sunday and hoping to grab one of those grilli aprons

This is ridiculous. It's like it's 1982 or '83, and there's this magical place called the Kingdom of .500 that we've never been to before, and we're just pushing our rock up the hill and getting nowhere.

Up 4-1, bottom of the ninth, two out, man on second, Royals come back to win 5-4. The Kingdom of .500 recedes.

Osuna picked a ripe time to have an existential crisis.

He's been doing so well. I'm really surprised by this.

I don't mean to make light of the situation, but could there be a worse match in sports than an anxiety-ridden closer? You've got to have ice water in your veins to do that job.

He said he feels fine on the field though. I think he's struggling with everything else in his life.

Well, he did good today.

Grilli DFA'd

vlad jr and bichette both invited to the futures game

after playing for brazil in the wbc, bichette will be on the us team in miami

Not that this year's Jays deserve such stature, but:

1978's famous "Boston Massacre," as the Yankees swept and caught the Red Sox in early September: 15-3, 13-2, 7-0, and 7-4, for a cumulative score of 42-9.

2017 version, still two innings to go: 7-4, 7-1, 15-1 = 29-6.

Smoak is the asg starting 1B!

nice

Osuna got off to a terrible start this year--he gave up runs in four of his first six appearances--but in 30 games since his ERA's under 1.00, and for the season his K/BB ratio is up in Jansen/Kimbrel territory, 47-3.

ya, he's moved into 4th on the blue jays save streak record (with 21 or 22)

clem yr man is up and doing okay but needs to throw strikes

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=647332#/career/R/pitching/2017/ALL

Thanks. I had stopped checking on him at some point, so I'm glad he's healthy again.

Had another interesting guy on the same team: Romar Subban, P.K.'s cousin.

http://www.mississauga.com/sports-story/5249418-subban-making-a-name-in-basketball/

He was a great athlete, not a great baseball player, but he was an okay hitter and made a key catch in the final inning of the championship game. These guys are all finished high school now, so I'll post the team picture.

http://phildellio.tripod.com/huttonville.JPG

Darren's right in the center of the back row; Romar's two down from me on the left. The guy between Darren and Romar was pretty much as good as Darren back then and was actually the MVP of the tournament

"Shred" - what a great baseball name.

Darren "Kick-Ass Guitar Solo" Shred

also: i was at the game today. but on the bright side, i did land a bobblehead.

Baseball Reference has Stroman tied for the league-lead among pitchers in WAR, which at best seems overly generous, even in view of his mediocre team, and at worst ridiculous--both he and Vargas are ahead of Sale. He's 12th on Fangraphs.

honestly didn't even realize how well his season was going until a few days ago. it doesn't *feel* like he's pitched as well as his WAR would suggest.

Just doesn't compute. They've got Stroman ahead of Sale, Kershaw, Kluber, everyone except Scherzer.

Stroman - 112.1 IP, 139 ERA+, 3.21 K/BB, 1.264 WHIP, 3.88 FIP
Sale - 127.2 IP, 168 ERA+, 8.09 K/BB, 0.901 WHIP, 2.09 FIP
Kershaw - 132.1 IP, 189 ERA+, 7.23 K/BB, 0.877 WHIP, 3.01 FIP
Kluber - 93.1 IP, 170 ERA+, 5.13 K/BB, 0.986 WHIP, 2.43 FIP

Baffling. Except for Kluber's injury-related low IP, there's not a single category where Stroman doesn't finish last. What is the basis for this? What else is there that I'm missing?

it does seem like a bizarre result!

if i had to guess, maybe it comes down a combo of 1) bad TOR defense and 2) Stroman facing above-average opponents and/or in disadvantageous parks? the reason i say that is looking at the list of differences between the B-R and fangraphs WAR models, one of the key differences is that B-R takes the pitcher's team's defense while fangraphs does not. Toronto ranks near the bottom of team defense this year, while Sale's Red Sox are at the top with Kershaw's Dodgers not that far behind.

One of the other differences is that while both B-R and fangraphs use Park Factors in calculating WAR, B-R takes into account the "actual" parks that the pitcher performs in. so maybe Stroman has pitched in more difficult parks this year so far and B-R is adjusting for that?

i agree though, seeing stroman at the top of the league does seem weird and wrong. this is anecdotal and subjective, but seems like the fangraphs model will occasionally present a really strange outlier, but the B-R version does so with regularity.

kinda seems inevitable that the WAR models will dramatically change in the near future, though, so that they can be based upon real batted-ball data (ie from STATCAST)

two of his WAR came just from this pitch

ICYMI: Marcus Stroman's Slider might be the Pitching GIF of the year pic.twitter.com/z7JWYbflkg

— Pitcher List (@ThePitcherList) July 10, 2017

I knew there'd be a park-adjustment (though not a parks adjustment...); should've thought of defense but didn't. Still, I would think that both would be tinkering around the edges--the categories above aren't even close, and together they take in pretty much everything else.

On the plus side, there's always Stroman's temperament.

http://www.torontosun.com/2017/07/09/stroman-takes-swing-at-umps-all-star-voting

A couple of other things I try to pay attention to:

High-quality starts (7+ IP/2- runs): Stroman (6/18), Sale (8/18), Kershaw (14/19), Kluber (6/14)

Average game score: Stroman (55), Sale (67), Kershaw (67), Kluber (64)

it's not "tinkering around the edges" when ERA and WHIP are fundamentally flawed bcz they adjust for nothing.

Another blowout. I remember 2015, when we spent a couple of months (correctly) banking on run differential to save the day.

An "Ask Bill" I sent in a few days ago that might interest Thermo and NoTime:

Bill: In the past couple of weeks, the Jays lost three games to the Astros and Red Sox by a combined score of 46-4. We know that run differential usually tends to even out over the course of a season, and I’m sure every player knows that too. I realize you’re not a psychologist, but any insight into how players think about such losses, if at all? Thirty years ago I would have thought it’d be, "A loss is a loss, no big deal." But do such blowouts ever give them pause nowadays about how good their team actually is? Maybe they just figure they’re now bound to win some blowouts at some point...
Asked by: Phil Dellio

Answered: 7/14/2017
My guess would be that with ONE blowout loss, or one blowout loss a week, it rolls off the team's back; a loss is a loss, no reason to sweat this one. You lose several games like that, you're going to start to question the capability of the team you play for.

(By "run differential usually tends to even out over the course of a season," what I of course meant is that it tends to fall in line with W-L record.)

I agree with Bill on this one.

Stroman is pretty good.

Thanks, VHS!

this game is pissing me the fuck off.

Have close to zero confidence Toronto pulls this one out.

Jeff Blair was funny on the radio this morning, calling the bluff of callers who want to blow up the team. He went through the Astros and Cubs W-L records from 2011-13. "A rebuild is not a 78-84 season."

The Fan had Atkins on this morning. He called Osuna one of the best closers in baseball, Donaldson one of the best players in baseball, and Stroman "one of the best-performing pitchers in baseball." I'm probably reading too much into that, but it struck me as a distinction that suggests management is a little skeptical about Stroman (I've expressed my own skepticism more than once here) and they wouldn't hesitate on the right trade.

"the most tradable asset in baseball!"
"best-performing" is indeed weird tho. maybe they feel Sanchez has more raw talent, but maybe Stroman seems to get more out of his stuff than old blistery is right now. i think it's born more out of not wanting to slight anyone else on the team than trying to talk up a trade piece.
i do think the Jays will wind up sellers, but I expect guys like Happ or Estrada (if anyone will have him) to be on their way out.

My take is that "best performing" means "clutch" in that comment.

I'm no fan of either Kevin Barker or Joe Siddall, but I agree with something Barker said this morning, talking about the difference between Morales and Edwin: "Morales doesn't scare anyone." I know, I know--intangibles. Their HR, RBI, BA, and SLG are virtually identical this year. But Barker explained it in more tangible terms: that teams don't have to manipulate their bullpen with an Edwin AB looming. And another tangible manifestation: Edwin's 55-24 BB advantage, which translates to 60 points of OBP. Most of that is just better plate discipline throughout Edwin's career, but I'm sure the fear factor figures in a little.

Overheard from Progressive field beer guy: "Man it's hot. And those Canadians love to drink. It's gonna be a good night." #Bluejays

— Rob Longley (@longleysunsport) July 21, 2017

Fredo: "How do you say 'This team is fucked' in Spanish?"
Michael (smiling): "'This team is fucked.'"

Running four games ahead of their Pythagorean--they've finally figured out how to win the close ones.

it doesn't feel that way.

Let me rephrase.

Running four games ahead of their Pythagorean--they've finally figured out how to lose the blowouts.

ah yes. on that i can agree, they've definitely mastered the blowout loss.

uh oh

AZL Reds placed RHP Darren Shred on the 60-day disabled list.

Thanks for the update. I don't know how much patience they're going to have with a 300-some pick who's injury-prone.

Now that's a finish.

yes. i think i woke up my neighbour's kid.

Missed this! Two walk-off grand slams in a week by the same guy--that has to be a first.

that's 4 come from behind wins since wednesday?!

they don't give the other guys' dates at ESPN.com

Pearce became just third player to hit two game-ending grand slams in the same season, joining Cy Williams (Phillies, 1926) and Jim Presley (Seattle, 1986). Presley later served as Pearce's hitting coach with the Orioles.

(I mean month/dates of their respective years)

The really funny part of this is right at the end, where Henderson talks about the Carter home run:

http://www.mlb.com/video/rickey-goes-north/c-1672510183

The pitcher they got from the Indians yesterday looks sort of promising.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=pannon000tho

he does! none of the three young guys they got looks like slouches imho.

Bret:
I know you’ve taken the side that the Jays should look to rebuild for a little while now. Does it follow, to you, that the Jays should be shopping Josh Donaldson this offseason? If so, should they go further and discuss guys like Stroman & Osuna? On the flip-side, does it look like there’s enough there to try and take another run with Donaldson in 2018 with some effective offseason maneuvering?

Dave Cameron:
I get the desire to want to keep building, but I have a hard time seeing the 2018 Blue Jays as a good team. They have a lot of holes, not a lot of money to spend, and not a lot of chips to trade. And it’s not like Boston or New York should be expected to get worse next year.
I’d blow it up.

biagini optioned ;_;

New name for the second wild-card in a logjam year when your team is a mess: The Future of an Illusion.

Estrada's had four good starts in a row, making it a really hard decision whether they should try to unload him or not. This is where I'd definitely be looking at FIP if I were management, which says he's basically the same pitcher this year as the last two:

ERA (2015/16/17): 3.13/3.48/4.85
FIP (2015/16/17): 4.40/4.15/4.35

His K/BB ratio has held steady (more strikeouts, more walks); his HR/9 has crept up a bit; his H/9 are way up, suggesting he was either lucky the past two seasons or unlucky this year. Probably halfway between.

he's had the, or one of the, lowest BABIP in '15 and '16 because apparently he is somehow a kind of weak contact god (possibly because of his off-speed stuff). so i'd not be the least bit surprised if his ERA going up so much vs FIP is due to hitters just making better contact.

That would definitely have been my common-sense explanation 20 years ago--"Um, they're hitting the ball harder, maybe, and more batted balls are getting through for hits?"--but I've been duly taught to be suspicious of all common-sense explanations.

I think the Weak Contact Gods should have been a Greg Ginn spinoff project on SST circa 1987.

I posted a piece on Dave Stieb's 1985 season, which has always mystified me. Don't know if there are any other Jays fans old enough to remember how unusual it was.

How in the hell is this team only 3.5 games out of a playoff spot (behind six other teams though)??

Nice piece on Stieb ... I remember it well, and Stieb discussed it in detail in his autobiography.

xpost What's more, four of the six teams ahead of us are either tied or just one game ahead in the loss column!

I always wonder how much your chances actually decrease as you add teams between yours and the goal. How much of that is psychological? I guess the more teams, the better chance someone else will also get hot, but ultimately it's up to the Jays. If they can get it together and go 27-17 or close, that'd be enough no matter how many teams are in the mix, right? Is there a chance that a whole bunch of other teams are actually more likely to neutralize each other, clearing a path for the one team that gets hot? I don't know the answer to these questions.

The more teams involved, the less control each team has over their destiny so to speak. Winning doesn't necessarily get you ahead because it depends on what the other teams do, whereas losing to a team you're trying to beat definitely sets you back. No idea what this means psychologically. You can say that every game is like a playoff game when you're in a tight race with a bunch of other teams competing for the same spot, but maintaining the same level of focus over a period of weeks has got to be impossible.

That makes sense. I think 27-17 would do it, though--but the Jays are going to make such chimerical thinking moot anyway.

The 10th inning of yesterday's game was an all-time shitshow (Thermo were you there?). Giving up three runs on two hits (both singles) isn't easy, but they managed it somehow.

Three runs on two hits (singles) and no walks!!!

Don't know if I've ever seen a catcher have a more nightmarish half-inning. Besides the two wild pitches and the third one that was ruled a fielder's choice--where Lopez clearly forgot he needed to throw down to first--he also got dinged twice by pitches that were fouled off.

Plus a play at the plate for the winning run. (Not that Lopez did anything wrong there.) Richard Griffin's game story: "Lopez stayed on his knees with his head on the grass for several seconds after the winning run."

Sounds like I'm blaming Lopez for the loss...It was basically Osuna's nightmare, but every part of it directly involved the catcher. I'd have to look at the two (or three) wild pitches again; as I watched, they looked pretty difficult to block.

The winning hit was a horrible pitch (right down the middle) and a horrible throw from Bautista (a half-decent throw gets the runner by ten feet).

I was back home Sunday for the kiddo's birthday. Was there for the Friday & saturday games.

I find it weird with Lopez yesterday... each play on it's own you could forgive him or explain away what happened as (perhaps) something beyond his control. But he was at the center of a string of minor catastrophes that cost the team the game. Is he a colossal fuck up who lost the game, or simply a bad catcher who was over his head in a tough situation? I'm not sure.

And by the way - I had the time of my life in Wrigley those games.

They had a panel here name the 40 greatest Blue Jays in franchise history. I think it was panel--they had a fan vote, too, so it's a little confusing. The results were announced over the weekend:

1. Roberto Alomar, 2. Dave Stieb, 3. Roy Halladay, 4. Carlos Delgado, 5. Jose Bautista, 6. Tony Fernandez, 7. George Bell, 8. Joe Carter, 9. Jimmy Key, 10. Josh Donaldson.

11. Pat Hentgen, 12. Tom Henke, 13. Edwin Encarnacion, 14. John Olerud, 15. Devon White, 16. Jesse Barfield, 17. Paul Molitor, 18. Fred McGriff, 19. Roger Clemens, 20. Lloyd Moseby.

21. Duane Ward, 22. Vernon Wells, 23. Juan Guzman, 24. Kelly Gruber, 25. Jim Clancy, 26. Dave Winfield, 27. Shawn Green, 28. David Wells, 29. Jack Morris, 30. Pat Borders.

31. Ernie Whitt, 32. Willie Upshaw, 33. Damaso Garcia, 34. David Cone, 35. Shannon Stewart, 36. Dave Stewart, 37. Alfredo Griffin, 38. Russell Martin, 39. Rance Mulliniks, 40. Alex Rios.

They were trying to balance achievement with length of service here, so you get people like Clemens and Molitor and Donaldson (eight seasons between the three) mixed in with Moseby and Fernandez. Intuitively I'd flip Halladay and Stieb, and Carter's too high of course, even though I'm guessing most Jays fans think he's too low. It's a good list, allowing for pure nostalgia picks like Garcia and Griffin--the mid-'80s are over-represented in general, which is fine by me. I might be inclined to sneak Juan Guzman in there towards the bottom--I'd put him on before Martin, for sure.

Or the panel could just list him at #23...oops.

I'd switch Halliday with Alomar

I feel like Jose Cruz should have made the cut.

I can't argue with Halladay over Alomar. Alomar's ranking is very much tied in with the mystique that has attached to him over the years (ironic in view of how unmercifully he was booed here for the remainder of his career). He'd be #1 on my ballot--I was just so much more tuned in for his Jays years than I was for Halladay's--but I'm sure it's not all that close going by WAR.

Alomar: 5 seasons, 22.2 WAR (5.1/650 PA)
Halladay: 11 seasons, 41.6 WAR (5.6/162games)

Whitt should be a few spots ahead of Borders. If 1B is the Jays' glamour position--three borderline (or borderline borderline, maybe) HOF'ers in succession--catcher is our equivalent of Steve Balboni holding the Royals' HR record all those years. After four decades, Ernie Whitt is still the best catcher we've ever had.

Huge night for Morales: 4-5, 3 HR, 7 RBI.

I want Edwin back.

i find this Carlos Ramirez guy we called up super interesting. a converted OF, he hadn't given up a run in ~37 IP in AA/AAA – with a K/9 over 10. and he just threw 2 shutout innings in tonights game.

For all the injuries we've had this year, the difference between last and a wild-card spot looks to be all the blown saves and late-game losses. The Jays lead the majors in walk-off losses, they're 5-12 in extra innings, and Osuna's save percentage is 80% (nine blown saves in 44 opportunities). Maybe they should think about Ramirez for next year.

i like the guy, but... BLASPHEMY!

They're +5 wins ahead of their expected record based on run differential. Their problems run a lot deeper than that.

Overall, for sure--they've got lots to address if they want to keep pace with Boston and New York next year. But with so much parity around the A.L. wild-card spots, better late-game performance would have them still in the race.

my plan is to go into coldsleep for a few years until Vlad and Bichette can save us.

because of his promotion to high a, bichette lacked the plate appearances to qualify for the midwest league batting title. so they added on an 0-for-61 -- taking him from .384 to .316 -- and he still won by 11 points lol

Wow! Does that affect his official stats? Because right now it's really enjoyable to go to his stats and see a .384 up there

no i'm pretty sure it's just for awards purposes

Phew. Crisis averted.

I love bo and vlad but I think they should be traded to the Rockies and a new Montreal franchise. Sorry, blue jay fans.

So tired of Osuna. I normally wouldn't care at this point, but I'm in a pool where I can win some money, and the Jays are killing me.

Better late game performance would have prevented this game from going 18 innings (and counting).

Or we could have won 2-0...Honestly, I don't get why you guys are so attached to Osuna.

Meanwhile, our catchers are nearing completion of an excellent reenactment of 1968: .176/.277/.308. They have hit 18 HR, which is probably above league average for the position.

This year, I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't.

Average team at catcher in the AL (includes Toronto): .242/.310/.404, 18 HR. Being at the league average in HR and 100 points lower in slugging is probably some kind of achievement.

Or we could have won 2-0...

That's what I meant!

Oops--I thought you were calling attention to the great relief work after Osuna.

I know it seems like I'm dumping on Osuna, because...well, because I'm dumping on Osuna. The effects are so noticeable and immediate when you've got a slumping closer. A slumping hitter you can carry; even a starter who is always making you play catch up, you win a few of those games. The slumping closer usually directly converts wins to losses, or you get a nightmare like last night, where you not only lose the win, you end up emptying the bullpen. I guess he's earned a certain amount of loyalty, but I don't know patient I'd be knowing how replaceable closers are.

sounds like the Jays fans still travel well in Minnesota.

Mr. Biagini, Mr. Joe Biagini is getting lots and lots of chances and only rarely taking advantage of them.

goodbye?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/is-this-the-end-for-jose-bautista/

will be at the game today. so i'll have seen the last game as a Jay for Halladay, Wells and Bautista.

Correction: just realized the Yankees series is here. So never mind what I just said.

Was that the last game before he was traded to the Phillies in the offseason or the last game when he came back for a day and retired?

Vernon Wells or David Wells? :)

We hear about this every TV broadcast in Toronto, but some notes on Ryan Goins' serendipitous RBI total (hit his second grand slam last night). He mostly hits 8th or 9th in the lineup, has just under 400 AB, and is hitting .228 with 8 HR. He's basically a terrible hitter--.225/.273/.330 lifetime--but will end up with 60-65 RBI this year.

Men On: 170 AB, .288/.330/.459
RISP: 95 AB, .337/.376/.558
Bases Loaded: 14 AB, .714/.688/1.214 (20 RBI)

Great send-off for Bautista: popped up in his final AB, but numerous standing ovations throughout the day, and he got to do the extended trot in, hugging every player along the way, when Gibbons sent out a defensive replacement in the bottom of the 9th.

Jose's 9th-inning exit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xseb-868_pg

Great moment.

I'm glad no one--Bautista, the other players (who let him take the field alone before the game), Gibbons--tried to keep up the pretense that he might be back next year. Bautista paid lip service to that idea post-game, but not in any serious way.

It's better left unsaid, and no team ever comes out and says that a player definitely won't be back.

It's too bad that in a different era, a player like him could hang around a bit longer as a power threat off the bench, getting 150 at bats per year. But with teams carrying 12 pitchers these days nobody has a bench anymore.

I think Teoscar hitting as well as he has the last few weeks has also really driven home the idea that Bautista’s time here is over.

he's unfortunately been Albert Pujols-level bad this year, too

which i guess at one point was a sentence i never thought i'd type

Donaldson has homered his first two times up against Sale tonight. The announcers said his 23 since the break is the most in either league--doesn't sound quite right (I would have thought Stanton has more than that).

How's this for a small-sample hot streak: his last five road games, Donaldson's 14 for 19 with 8 HR.

lol yeah Stanton has 31

One of the great finishes in team history: we spend the last day of the season not in last.

(To be clear, every single other day we were.)

We waited until the last minute with them last year too!

We beat out Baltimore on the last day of the season again!

So it was almost like making the playoffs ... almost.

The unplayoffs.

Apologize for unplayoff

Still basking in the wild success of the Troy Tulowitzki acquisition, the Jays are now thinking about Carlos Gonzalez.

Career:
Home - .323/.383/.593
Away - .252/.308/.427

2017:
Home - .323/.403/.520
Away - .203/.274/.332

Put aside whatever I've said about Arenado or Blackwell--at least those guys are in or even just entering their prime. The idea of investing in Colorado hitters past their prime falls somewhere between dubious and doomed.

Somewhere between dubious and doomed: The 2018 Toronto Blue Jays

That's good! Set it up.

By the way, by "Blackwell," I meant famed arbiter of fashion Mr. Blackwell, currently enjoying a comeback in Colorado.

Should they keep Donaldson, y/n.

I mean the AL is lost for the foreseeable future.

I'm not completely buying in on that. Last year's Stanton trade was the Sale trade, and the Red Sox were going to have by far the best rotation in the league. Guys get injured or underperform, stuff happens. The Jays have almost nobody signed past next year, they can easily sign Donaldson and keep adding pieces.

https://cdn.fangraphs.com/tht/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Pic-01B.png

vlad jr is gonna be so good

And there’s Bo too, not far away. 2021 cant come soon enough.

The Indians, Yankees, Royals, and Dodgers have had some success the last few years by loading up on bullpen arms and using a five-inning strategy. We're going to try the same things with spare-parts middle infielders. (Solarte looks pretty good, I guess.)

I doubt any of our new infielders can pitch as well as Goins tho. We’re fucked.

Is the Donaldson signing a wait-and-see move? Enough money that, with those two guys on their way, he'll consider resigning if they look competitive a year from now (if the Jays still want him, that is)?

That wasn’t an extension - they just came to an agreement to avoid arbitration.

I understood that, what I meant was that by avoiding arbitration they maintain a good-faith relationship, and there's at least a chance Donaldson will resign next year if Donaldson's still playing well and the prospects for 2019 look good. (Whereas an arbitration hearing ensures he leaves after this year.)

It's the typical running in place non-move that Jays management excels at. If they trade him now then it's a clear sign that they're punting the season but the same time they don't want to sign him to an extension and commit to being competitive. Gord Ash would have been proud.

I think most of the arb eligible guys have managed to come to an agreement tho, haven’t they?

And, in regards to running in place - in this case, I’m ok with it. I feel like they’re a league average corner outfielder and a 5th starter away from having a shot at the wildcard. They are going to have to decide at the deadline this year - are they competitive - or are they selling (Donaldson). Then they can suck for two years until the Tulo and Martin contracts are up, which coincides with Vlad and Dante Jrs being ready - ideally Sanchez and/or Stroman are extended and they can plug whatever holes we have with FAs in 21/22.

i think they ought to trade him now. he's a great player but he's also 32, and whoever signs him as a free agent is going to be paying for age 33-whatever. he also happens to play vlad jr's position.

zips projects the jays winning 83 games and being the first team out of the playoffs (albeit five games behind the second-wildcard angels). that's pretty good and certainly within the margin of error, so it would be hard to just punt on 2018. but if they could get a decent return on donaldson i think it still would be worth it.

on a completely different note: http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/11/doug-ault-and-the-triumph-of-joy

wow at all the snow on the field in that video!

sometimes I'm astonished at what teams will part with at the deadline for a rental, partial-season player. tho the market for a 3b would be more limited than OF or P, i still like their odds of getting a good return, should they move him in August.

that, and knowing what i know about Jays (non-hardcore) fans – dealing him in the offseason would cause a minor revolt. would be a much easier sell if they're having a repeat of 2017.

Will have to read that Doug Ault piece. I was sitting in Mr. Lightfoot's grade 11 history class, with three or four of us listening to a transistor radio (with his okay).

All of last year's great teams had, and still have, a lot of depth. The Jays don't have much depth, especially on offense. They might luck into a WC spot if everything goes right, but that doesn't happen most years.

If there was ever a year for throwing in the towel, it's this year. Trade Donaldson, get Sanchez healthy again, commit to Stroman, get in on next year's historically great batch of free agents, and get Vlad and Dante Jrs ready. We could have a kick ass team in 2019-2020. Instead they'll hedge their bets and fall behind teams that stuck to their plan all along.

I don’t think they’ll be able to spend much until Martin and Tulo are gone in 20/21

As I see it there is three teams that will fight for the wild card spot: Twins, Angels and Jays. That's a low amount of odds to get in a one play-off game against either the Red Sox and the Yankees. It does not seem really worth it.

IT IS WORTH IT WE HAVE SO LITTLE HERE!

Also maybe I should do a new thread...

I wonder if we could have gotten McCutchen. The two guys San Francisco gave up look pretty good. Obviously, I wouldn't want the Jays to give up Jesus or Godot.

Anyway, we are making moves:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22110273/toronto-blue-jays-announce-plans-extended-protective-netting-rogers-centre

They did... signed Granderson.

They've plugged the 25 HR/.220 hole left by Bautista.

Sooner or later the Jays front office is going to learn that every cheap player they sign on a flier doesn't always pan out.

But it might take another ten years of mediocrity for that to happen.