vladimir guerrero.

http://i77.photobucket.com/albums/j50/razzyorg/Hot%20Guys/LosAngelesAngelsofAnaheim27.jpg

RIP

^ ban

Teams

* Montreal Expos (1996-2003)

:(

how does the guy hit like that when he'll swing at anything?

^^^ please note: his numerous back injuries. ^^^

moyer on guerrero: "I say this respectfully: he's a freak. He's a very good hitter without a strike zone. He can hit the ball in, hit the ball off the plate away, hit the ball up and go get the ball that's down. He covers the plate, and beyond."

Best player in the game.

I don't understand the thread. What about him? He's good, but "that is all"? I'm missing something.

He has a great arm in the outfield too.

vladimir guerrero. end communication.

tracer otm

Insightful- He's good, but he doesn't transcend the sport or anything. Plus he strikes out a lot. He could play for my team anytime, but I don't think he's worthy of any type of worship. What's he got, one ring?

vladimir

DEVIL'S ADVOCATE:

dudes who are repping his fielding/arm should look at the last 3 years.
vlad's 2007 HR total was a career low.

Plus, didn't he fuck up their playoff series somehow?

guys i think what tracer's trying to say is: vladimir guerrero

http://www.superphotospace.com/images/thumb/vida_guerra_king_big_460d402694049-t.jpg

vladimir guerrero

im in class right now but later i will post a youtube of the throw of him gunning cliff floyd at home from the warning track

he's no dave parker

guerrero

vlad

HOF, first ballot

not quite yet, i don't think

v

for vladetta

if everyone wore vlad masks on guy fawkes day, it would be much better.

my brother and i used to talk about how cool it would be to see vladdy pitch for an inning. irl he would probably blow out his arm but i think from the mound he could throw like 105+

also i can't find that throw on youtube but i've got this:

"He's a mutant!" - Scott Stuart (after seeing Vladimir Guerrero throw out a runner at third from the Olympic Stadium warning track on a 1-hop bullet) on ESPN's SportCenter

The July 2006 issue of Playboy featured the first formal nude photos of Guerrero. Part of his motivation for posing for the magazine, his said, was the camera phone incident; he wanted people to see what he really looked like naked.

http://www.ucs.louisiana.edu/~cxw8679/Vlad

Now I get the point of the thread. D'oh!

What's he got, one ring?

and Luis Sojo has 3 or 4, so your point?

Similar Batters through Age 31

Willie Mays (907) *
Frank Robinson (891) *
Duke Snider (876) *
Manny Ramirez (874)
Juan Gonzalez (871)
Hank Aaron (869) *
Mickey Mantle (843) *
Ken Griffey (839)
Goose Goslin (837) *
Al Simmons (831) *

HOF Standards: Batting - 48.7 (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
HOF Monitor: Batting - 174.0 (Likely HOFer > 100)

The One Ring was created by the Dark Lord Sauron during the Second Age in order to gain dominion over the free peoples of Middle-earth. In disguise as Annatar, or "Lord of Gifts", he aided the Elven smiths of Eregion and their leader Celebrimbor in the making of the Rings of Power. He then forged the One Ring himself in the fires of Mount Doom. He intended it to be the most powerful of all Rings, able to rule and control the others (as long as their owners wore them). Since the other Rings were extremely powerful, Sauron was obliged to place most of his native power, life force and will into it to effect his purpose. there were certain pros & cons to this. The pros was that as long as the Ring existed, it was literally quite impossible to remove him from the mortal plane. On the other hand, the cons that the Ring possessed was that if he were to lose the Ring, he would also lose a great deal of his own power (when it was cut off from his hand, he lost/forsook a physical body for at least another 2500 years), and if the Ring were to be destroyed, he too would be vanquished in the process.

of that list i guess only igor, manny and jr. wore batting gloves

Montreal's turf (& maybe swinging at everything w/ 150% effort) messed him up. ;_;

Also: no rings. ;_;

Also: the Angels hitters aside from Vlad kinda blow. u_u

But: vladimir guerrero!!! :D

LAAoA: worst team name in sports? I can't think of many worse ones. Maybe Wash'n Redskins, or FC United.

http://i71.photobucket.com/albums/i134/dgoobl/VladTavares.jpg

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/9/14/4729002/vladimir-guerrero-retires-mlb

Okay...didn't realize this needed to be done.

these days, Wladimir Balentien (sp?) is where it's at

one of my favorite players ever

vlad, that is

http://noontimebaseball.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/VladGuerrero_070701_throwhome.gif

that gif is inhuman

sure felt like a HOFer when he played, but man he fell off fast. still rooting for him tho, even if he has less WAR than kenny lofton

jk i'd vote for lofton too

thought about starting a thread for him, but don't wanna jump the gun yet

vlad guerrero jr, the top prospect in baseball. absolutely TEARING UP double-A ball right now -- hitting .400/.450/.650. he just turned 19

and there's this: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/video-vlad-jr-homers-twice-once-off-a-hotel/

i'm all for this thread. i want him to be amazing.

may as well keep it on this thread anyway, maybe? if there were ilb threads back in the bobby bonds and ken griffey days it would have been fun to see them morph into the barry and griffey jr era.

Popular topic on the call-in shows here, obviously. According to one of them the other day, the team scouts almost unanimously say he's ready to play in the majors now, that he's not learning anything where he is. The ownership seems to have a timetable of their own. I expect he'll be up for good no later than April of next year, though.

(Donaldson complicates the issue somewhat.)

i'm particularly excited because not only is he amazing, but he doesn't strike out much at all

feel like they traded for gio urshela today just so they'd be able to say 'sorry we have no room for vlad jr yet'

is he still in new hampshire? i need to get off my ass and see him and bo before they move up. i think i'm closer to manchester than i am buffalo or toronto or wherever their a-ball affiliates are (not that i need to worry about a-ball anymore!)

Me and some friends have a plan to see him when they are playing in Erie, which is the closest place to see him play.
I’m starting to think there is no way he’s still going to be in AA by the time that team will be playing there though.

3-for-3 this morning, now batting .414 overall -- best in the minors by 35 points

That vid of Vlad Jr. hitting that bomb off a tee was pretty impressive. That is way harder to do than you would think.

Motion to turn title of this thred to “ gurrero & son”

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 4 for 4 with a walk-off homer today.

It is May 20, and he's hitting .423/.468/.705 at Double-A.

He's barely 19 years old.

And not to sound like a broken record or anything, but he belongs in the big leagues with the Toronto Blue Jays. Like, now. https://t.co/uvuhJAsxJW

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) May 20, 2018

I would absolutely not bring him up this year lol

no they should

they have every incentive to keep him in the minors (except ticket sales and fun) which sucks

otoh it's gonna be a while before they're a vlad away from seriously competing with the yankees (and to a lesser extent, the red sox); maybe they should keep him in the minors for several more years

why? they play in a division with the red sox and yankees, and (I think) would lose a year of control if he gets brought up this year xp

moving him up to AAA seems inevitable at least

because I want to see him in the majors, that's why

I mean, you're totally right, but still

AA or AAA, he still really needs to work on his defense.

The year's a write-off, so--besides reasons already given--there's no point. I was open to bringing him up at some point when the team looked competitive, but bring him up now, and he'll probably end up in mop-up relief or something.

I don't know, I have the Braves in mind and how they are competing with young players and sure perhaps it's an outlier. However, there is some sort of cognitive dissonance with the idea that since the Jays aren't competing right now, there's no need to bring in one of their best players on board. Five games away from the wild card in late may, what is there to lose?

On the other hand, I think Thermo is right about the defense.

What kind of bothers me in regards to the Jays future is, while we’ve got some serious bats coming up (Alford, Biggio, Bichette, Smith, Jansen) we don’t have much in the way of pitching. Pearson I like a lot, tho he’s hurt right now and Borucki might be ok... but I feel like bringing up Vlad too soon brings him out of synch with the others. I get that he’s more advanced than any other prospect in the system but I don’t see a need to rush him if it doesn’t serve a purpose.

He'll get called up in September for sure. As for calling up the prospects and letting them develop in the majors (like the Braves and Astros), it won't happen. The Jays haven't done that since the early 80's.

to quote zack cozart, this is bad for baseball. the best players should be in the majors, regardless of age or years of control. the cubs/braves gaming a couple weeks to get an extra year of bryant/acuna is, while bad, one thing, but stashing a guy for months/years is unacceptable. if the jays keep him down it may be smart given the current incentives, but it's something that baseball as a whole should address

agreed

agreed here, too.

on the other hand, i guess it's good for AA baseball

saw people on twitter celebrating 'the guerrero news' but it turned out to be about peru's world cup captain : /

last I checked he was hitting like .440

.417/.465/.701 with 21 strikeouts in 216 plate appearances

in a league in which he is -5.3 years younger than average

<3

i also side with zack cozart on this issue

but if he's not going to promoted it would be nice to see him hit .450 or do something bonkers

So it's obviously bad for baseball fans that Guerrero is not playing in the majors right now but on top of that... I wonder how the current Blue Jays squad feel about not getting the necessary reinforcements to win games. As players of major league caliber, their whole life is set upon competing at baseball, and then their management is throwing the towel 45 games into the season and decides not to bring in potential help to win games. It must be so frustrating, if not downright deflating. 'Nah you guys are not quite worth losing one year of Guerrero's contract, sorry'.

boo hoo lol

I can see them thinking that way in another context--later in the year, somewhat closer--but I can't believe anybody on this team thinks Guerrero's going to launch them into contention. Something I come across in a lot of books is how, 50 years ago, some veterans would be very supportive of younger players (e.g., Musial), but most would treat them like dirt. I don't know how many of those guys still exist--money has changed everything; veterans don't feel as threatened anymore--but if they do, they're probably thinking this Double-A guy sure does get a fuck of a lot of attention.

Not launching them into contention, indeed that would not happen right now, but at least help winning games. However you are probably right, there is a most probably a selfish reaction when a young star comes along.

(However, it would be fun to hear if the arrival of Albies and Acuna did motivate older players in the Braves lineup to compete more than they used to, or if it just a coincidence.)

most jays are playing poorly enough that they deserve to be replaced, so they should be happy to leave the minor leaguers where they are. of the few that aren't -- or at least deserve the benefit of the doubt -- two play vlad's position

i would guess most guys' feelings are a mix of 'shit, i could tear up double-a too' (not like this, you couldn't) and 'whoa that kid's good'. most of them saw him in spring training and hit that walk-off in montreal

and yeah, winning is more fun than losing, but i suspect guys like smoak and solarte are pretty content to be playing okay and making the MLB average salary without worrying about front office moves

of the few that aren't -- or at least deserve the benefit of the doubt -- two play vlad's position

donaldson won't be around for too long, though, i'd guess. unless his injuries destroy his trade value

Yeah the market is already saturated in decent-to-great third basemen, considering how the past off-season went I am not convinced Donaldson is going to easily find a new home.

this year is crazy...

Vlad Jr. (leg) placed on the DL at Double-A https://t.co/N0fWiWGo8z

— Rotoworld Baseball (@Rotoworld_BB) June 7, 2018

dammit

https://sports.yahoo.com/argument-favor-keeping-vladimir-guerrero-jr-minor-leagues-203009930.html

Heading to Buffalo. Will definitely get down there for a game.

Having a hard time getting my head around Vlad Sr. on the cover of TV Guide.

so far in AA he's batting .410/.460/.668 in 54 games, 236 PAs, 205 wRC+

he seems ready to another level

ready for another level

#isthatgood

If you're in Toronto, TSN is debuting Namesake today at 5:00, about the two Guerreros. I'm heading down to Buffalo on Thursday to see Jr.

I gave serious thought about doing that. But fuck trump. I’m not going to that country.

Don't punish yourself. When you look back one day and say "I saw him play in Triple-A," the other guy will be long gone.

i'll live.

you presumably live in Doug Ford's Ontario

i really meant to do that while he was still in AA with new hampshire (closer to me than buffalo i think), ah well!

ya. i'm more boycotting the US while they have tariffs in place designed to fuck over Canadians – including my father's business (he's worked in the food industry most his life). it's not about trump specifically – but the whole corrupt/complicit apparatus that is allowing him to run roughshod over trade agreements. i'l keep my dollars here at home in doug ford's stupid fucking Ontario.

and don't even get me started about how angry i am about his latest stunt.

I was going to say, Thermo, Buffalo will probably have a couple of seats on our next council, so you can look at it that way.

also one of my best baseball friends is "the wrong shade" to be entering the US without us having to worry about the shitheels attitude at the boarder.

Maybe you could justify it by considering it a subsidy toward Vlad Jr's future career (which includes keeping him in T.O. for as many years as possible).

dude - i am going to put a brew master's kid through college once this kid hits the show.

Just missed an autograph; he opted for the young women standing beside me instead of the Unabomber-looking old guy. (Plus, she had an expensive jersey, I had a card.)

He went 1-3 with a double, a walk, and a baserunning error (understandable--the opposing shortstop had just made a fantastic play). I hope he can stay interested for the rest of the year; he looked a little bored fielding his position, or maybe he was just daydreaming about millions. (Will they bring him up as a September call-up or just start fresh next year?)

http://phildellio.tripod.com/vlad.jpg

💪 Vlad Jr. 💪@MLB's No. 1 overall prospect is 3-for-3 with a 2-run homer tonight, his 1st since joining the @BuffaloBisons. The #BlueJays phenom is hitting .476 in 8 games since being promoted on July 31. Here's how @BlueJays prospects are faring: https://t.co/n4rt0Iwb1H pic.twitter.com/x5Fi6eWYax

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 9, 2018

remembering what happened with Travis Snider and Rios, I'm trying not to let my expectations get too crazy with this kid.

neither of those guys ever hit like this, let alone as a teenager (and rios had a pretty solid big league career!)

i am expecting miguel cabrera-type things tbh

my only concern is that he seems like a rather burly young man, which could end up limiting him to first base and/or be an injury factor

i mean okay, it's absurd to compare a 19yo to a triple-crown winner, but he's not gonna be brandon wood either

Agree--Vlad's not just promising, he's been dominating two or three different levels this year. I have no historical memory here, so I think I'll send a question out to everyone's favourite aging lunatic sabermetrician, see if he can recall any precedents.

dominating two or three different levels this year

Almost the whole year in double A and 22 ABs in AAA so far.

Oh I'm sorry clem you were probably talking about two or three different aspects of the game. My bad!

Actually I did mean that he'd played at four different levels this season, but you're right, 90% of his AB were in double-A.

Unrelated to baseball:
ASK TIM ELLISON

Albert, I don't think I ever knew why Night Soil Man broke up. I really only knew Mark and mostly knew him after NSM. I did see NSM at least once, though!

And Pulltoys! Opening for fIREHOSE.

(That band name came from a Minutemen song. At least I always assumed that...)

2-4 with another HR tonight.

i am expecting miguel cabrera-type things tbh

feel like this is the 'chief keef is a musician on a par with mozart' post that i've been building up to all these years

The two Vlads and a boxer.

http://www.instagram.com/p/BmTlNvjh7Qo/?taken-by=vladdyjr27

(And a third HR tonight.)

also

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bC6NjSL3TNM

Another HR--fourth game in a row, one short of a team record. Suddenly I know about Buffalo Bison team records.

Something you might hear a lot about in the next couple of weeks: no one's hit .400 for a full professional season since 1961.

http://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-makes-run-at-400-season/c-290192234

Guerrero's sitting at .397 right now. The Bisons' season ends Sept. 3, after which he presumably returns to New Hampshire for the playoffs (their season also ends Sept. 3). The Jays, probably not.

Bit sobering, though: Aaron Pointer? (Great story--brother of the Pointer Sisters!) Here's his major-league page:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pointaa01.shtml

Gary Redus, also mentioned in the piece, had a decent career, but I think we're hoping for a little more from Vlad.

Have to put the 's' on for MLB links:

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-makes-run-at-400-season/c-290192234

love gary redus, and his '78 season was magnificent (look at all the walks and stolen bases!), but he was a 21-year-old playing in an extremely friendly offensive environment against the lowest class of minor leaguers

steamer projects vlad jr as a top-20 hitter right now, before he's even been called up.
https://i.imgur.com/D6aNjc7.png?1
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/will-vlad-jr-hit-400/

man that’s crazy

Gonna be a real bummer when he hits .265 with a low .800s OPS next season.

I have faith Vlad Jr will be great, I was there when he hit that home run at the big Owe, but baseball is baseball and I've learned to tamper my expectations.

i notice Eloy Jimenez on that list as well.

vlad jr. so far in the arizona fall league:

8-for-11 (.727), 4 2B, 5 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

it's an offensive league and these are not top-flight pitchers, but jeez

i should go watch him play

No home runs?!?!

i know! trade him for sonny gray

now hitting .467 and has fanned once in 49 AB

he is so good

sounds to me like he needs to wait until about 3 and a half weeks into the 2019 regular season before he's ready for the big leagues

steamer projections for 2019 are out: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

vlad jr. is projected for 5.1 fWAR. 6th in MLB, sandwiched between Kris Bryant and Jose Ramirez.

O_O

then again, it also projects him for positive defensive value - isn't defense supposed to be vlad's weakness, if anything? still, i have to wonder if there's ever been a higher steamer projection for a player who has yet to make their debut.

projected to lead the league in batting average

canonlygetsohard.jpg

Are we in for twenty years of Thermo talking about his junk while Vlad Jr. leads the Jays to seven WS titles?

I am ready

is vlad jr. the best prospect ever?

spoiler: no -- that would probably be a-rod or griffey jr -- but he might be the best ~hitting~ prospect ever

so ready

Will be starting tomorrow. (Didn't get into today's game, first of the spring; Bichette was 1-2.)

the only reason a "smart" team would engage in this active disrespect is if they think they'll have destroyed free agency by the time they lose Guerrero's rights https://t.co/gKuWnom7g5

— Nathan Bernhardt (@jonbernhardt) February 27, 2019

The Jays have successfully convinced their fans that they're a small market team in a metropolis of six million people. Convincing the same fans that Vlad Jr isn't ready to play in the majors shouldn't be too difficult.

I don’t think anyone here buys either of those.

Supposedly Jays fans are all over Twitter screaming bloody murder about what Atkins said, but I asked someone at work today if he thought Guerrero took it personally or if he understood what was going on, and he thought the latter. Atkins could've been a little more artful, I suppose, but it's such an obvious smokescreen (which, admittedly, I wouldn't have understood myself a couple of years ago--I've never been that interested in the business side of the game). Would anyone really rather have a few extra weeks of Guerrero this year or a whole extra year of him down the road?

I'd rather cultivate a good relationship with my best player so maybe he'll re-sign

Does Toronto even want to sell tickets? C'mon...at this point you play him to get people in the seats.

F-ing baseball is so stupid, this type bs why they have this guy Mike Trout who is by the numbers the greatest hitter since Ted Williams or near Babe Ruth and really not many people even know who he is.

it's going to be a whole three weeks of waiting to see him, give or take? i'm sure they'll sell tickets just fine when they call him up, and then it will creep back down again because the team still isn't very good.

but also, how many batting titles has trout won? how many times leading the league in HRs? he has the curse of being very very good in all facets of the game, leading to an incredible overall value, while not being incredible in any single area that wow people who don't follow baseball closely

xp

honestly I find it hard to care too much about these situations, it's a few weeks

cultivating a good relationship doesn't even matter because vlad will ultimately go where the money is in free agency, and based on current trends that won't be toronto either way

a few weeks doesn't really matter, but dude is insulting everyone's intelligence -- literally everyone knows vlad mysteriously won't be ~ready~ until mid-april, at least don't bullshit us

see also manfred talking about salaries and desire to win. if you can't say something that isn't blatantly a lie, maybe just shut up

I agree his comments were not very bright.

cultivating a good relationship doesn't even matter because vlad will ultimately go where the money is in free agency

If you have a good relationship, maybe he'll accept an extension before he hits free agency.

it's a few weeks

He was ready opening day last year too.

yeah it's a not a few weeks, it's a full year.

eh. I’m not convinced about that it was clear at the time he was ready a full year ago

His minor league numbers are clear he was.

Nobody wants to hear that his defense is rated below average in the minors (if you slot him as DH you'd need to trade/dump Kendry who's due to earn $12M this year) and he had 2 lower body injuries last season.

I'm pretty sure he could have played last year and put together a rookie season at least the equal of Harper's. But you'd be losing him at what, 24 or 25?

i think he could have played and been fine, but yeah his defense needed work and bumping an 18yo up straight from high-A would have been *extremely* aggressive.

he earned a september call-up though (which he didn't get, of course) and the extra two weeks in the minors this april won't be what magically transforms him into a viable big-leaguer. especially when brandon drury is their top 3B

just play him for the love of god. this season is sure to blow again, give us something novel to be excited about

really hate to be the republican in this discussion but the team has to look out for its own interests, and that includes making sure he's ready (which is why bringing him up when he'd only proven himself against A-level pitching would have been too early) and making sure they retain control for an extra season (which is why bringing him up last year for meaningless games or starting him this year does not make sense). the issue is with the CBA; the team is just doing what it has to

^^^k3vin is a cop

no, that is true. but in the long run baseball as a whole would be better served by having its best players play. (i mean, pop doesn't care, but the nba will fine you if you rest your stars too much.) saying 'we're gonna play crappy players now so we can have better players in 2025' is straight-up saying that the team isn't really trying to win. as a fan, maybe i'll come back in 2025 and maybe i won't, but that's a pretty big turnoff, and it should worry the league more than saving money here and there. if baseball had an independent arbiter concerned about the overall health of the game, such an entity might try rearranging the incentives to reward competition a bit more.

(of course this sort of thing in particular is hard to gauge because there *are* legitimate reasons to leave players in the minors sometimes. )

I agree it’s a bad look for the game, I just don’t think that appealing to morality when trying to convince front offices to go against their own interests is something that is likely to work.

one appropriate thing might be to start the arb/free agency clock at signing rather than basing it on MLB playing time (presumably with different speeds for int'l signings/high schoolers/college players)

i mean i joke about the jays calling vlad up in mid april, but . . . they're not likely to catch the sox or yankees this season, so it might also be in their interests to stash him in the minors for several years. which as far as i know would be perfectly legal under the CBA, if an extremely bad look

I don't think it's appealing to morality more so than questioning if the long term health of the game is being challenged by the short term thinking of some owners.

"The team has to look out for its own interest" -- sure, under the current rules, it makes perfect sense to manipulate the service time of their best young players. They'd be stupid *not* to take advantage of that loophole. That's not the problem, the problem is that the loophole is BS and screws over both the players and the fans.

What is the league's rationale for letting guys come up June 1st without losing a year, but not April 1st?

the deal that the union negotiated with the league basically left this loophole open, where a certain amount of service time is required to burn a year of team control. not sure why the union agreed to it, but for the league it means happier owners who can play effective (sometimes REALLY effective) players for longer without paying them a lot. i guess it allows smaller market teams, if they're good with scouting, coaching and shrewd with contracts, to compete at a high level with a "bigger window" to sync up their quality youngsters. it's gotten completely insane now, though, where these arb-eligible/young guys are SO much cheaper than free agents, that there's no incentive to hire those free agents if you have a guy who's half as good and a tenth of the price.

as much as i don't want to miss any baseball, it's fucked up and i support the seemingly inevitable strike to get these folks paid

i'm not sure that answered your question lol i had too much coffee. it's all trash, let vlad play in toronto until there's a new montreal team for him to join

i have mixed feelings about that last detail.

ahhhh but look montreal isn't getting a team for like 20 years at this rate so you'll still get the best of vlad jr

Montreal can still hope for Vlad Jr Jr

Vlad Guerrero, Third of His Name, Breaker of ERAs, King of Baseball North

out 3 weeks with an oblique strain.

let's see, 3 weeks from march 10 is...

*checks calendar*

yep, late april

Rumored to have been called up to AAA Buffalo.

homer, double, four RBI in his first game with buffalo

i believe we have passed the point where the jays have gotten their extra year of control, so it could be any day now

Lot of talk on the radio tonight: how much notice will fans get, will the debut be a sell-out, is this the most anticipated debut of any Toronto athlete ever (any sport), etc. If there's enough notice, I might just try to buy a couple of cheap seats immediately and figure out who else can go later.

you live there, but i guess i'd be surprised if vlad's debut is a bigger deal than auston matthews'

Matthews' name came up, and the three hosts seemed to concur that this was bigger (in part because Matthews' four-goal debut was on the road).

ah, cool

I kind of agree with Matthews myself. I also thought of Vince Carter--not sure how long it for "Vinsanity" to take hold. I looked up his home debut: third game overall, 22 points, attendance ~15,000.

Something that made me laugh: Halladay's name came up, it was pointed out that he began with relatively little fanfare, and someone asked "Does anyone remember Halladay's debut?" Well, his first start was on the road, but in his first start in Toronto he came within one out of a no-hitter. So yeah, I think quite a few people remember.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqtzmTHHZlA

.500/.583/.900 through 12 AB in Buffalo. Probably ready...

I’m sure if social media was what it is now back then, Halladay’s debut would have been a bigger deal.

He was a first-round pick, but relatively low (17th), and he hadn't done much in the minors before he arrived. Everything's a bigger deal on social media, but I don't think he would have approached the Guerrero/Matthews/Carter kind of anticipation.

Wow!

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. now has exactly the same number of at-bats his dad had before his MLB debut. Through 1,055 AB's,

Vlad Sr: .343 AVG, 45 HR, 184 RBI, 95 BB, 115 K in 285 G
Vlad Jr: .332 AVG, 42 HR, 206 RBI, 149 BB, 137 K in 283 G

— Kelsie Heneghan (@Kelsie_Heneghan) April 15, 2019

According to my source this will come true. https://t.co/gj5a1i2Lmk

— Héctor Gómez (@hgomez27) February 7, 2019

uh... i meant:

SOURCE: The Blue Jays will call up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He will make his MLB's debut on Tuesday vs @SFGigantes, at Rogers Centre.#ZDigital #ZDeportes @z101digital @ZDeportes

— Héctor Gómez (@hgomez27) April 19, 2019

Another reporter is throwing cold water on that report. Going to the game either way, so I’m hopeful.

*hoping.

I've got a busy week, so unless they hold off till Saturday I'm out of luck. The other thing is, if I were to go, I want an actual ticket, not a computer printout. So that would pretty much necessitate buying the day of.

no Vlad tmrw. that means it will be either friday or May 6th (barring a mid-series injury).
already got seats lined up for friday!

.379/.438/.724 with three homers in eight games for buffalo now

come on

I've got my tickets for fridays game!

(xpost) If not for the Leafs, he would have been up Tuesday; I agree with their decision there, both economically (no way it would have sold out with the Leafs playing a game 7) and as a matter of fairness to fans.

i don't think the leafs had anything to do with it. they'd been saying for a while they wanted him playing a full series before getting called up, which didn't happen over the weekend because of rain.

call up biggio too tbh

yes. my suspicion is it will happen once they are clear of the super-two whatever it is with him.

It’s official. He’s up Friday.

Mike Fiers made his MLB debut in 2011, the same year Vlad Guerrero Sr. retired.

Now he’ll become the first pitcher Vlad Jr. faces in the big leagues on Friday.

— Faizal Khamisa (@SNFaizalKhamisa) April 24, 2019

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D49POxjVUAAswAb.jpg

The range of names here is amusing: from Lou Gehrig to Nick Swisher, and everybody in between.

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-projections-10-years-c303459710

if you asked me a week ago to name the teams of this guy and Tatis Jr, I couldn't have done it

Lot of talk on the radio tonight: how much notice will fans get, will the debut be a sell-out, is this the most anticipated debut of any Toronto athlete ever (any sport), etc. If there's enough notice, I might just try to buy a couple of cheap seats immediately and figure out who else can go later.
― clemenza, Friday, April 12, 2019

70,000 for the three games (29/21/19). I don't know why I too thought they might sell out Friday (or Saturday). As Mike Wilner pointed out, they didn't draw for Clemens in '97 and '98, having two historically great seasons--when they contend it's a zoo, when they don't it's half-empty, and it doesn't matter who's on the field.

Which is typical for most teams, and halfway between the few that draw no matter what, and the few that have trouble filling seats even when they contend.

Getting the day off tonight. No concern at all, although with so much scrutiny, you don't want a slow start to take on a life of its own.

Finally a multi-hit game today (2-2). It's been ugly--here's hoping Mendoza Land's in the mirror within a week or two.

home run derby bound!

Is it normal for them to invite rando non-all stars?

What's the record for lowest amount of HRs (or lowest SLG) to be invited to the HR derby?

ffs you people hate fun and/or 20-year-olds

would you rather have ketel marte and renato nunez

ffs you people hate fun and/or 20-year-olds

come join me on the Soto thread...

would you rather have ketel marte and renato nunez

BlueJays rookies ranked by ISO:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=2&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=10,d

Mookie otm I hope Senior throws

tbh the entire home run derby should be keith law pitching to jeff mcneil

i just want to point out that Cavan Biggio has a 18.6% walk rate.

Waiting, waiting, waiting...The notion that the HR Derby would get him going, that didn't happen. I realize that he's 20 and that this whole season could be a write-off and it really wouldn't matter. I'm just a little surprised by how much of a flat-line his season has been.

what's the book on him?

Scouting, you mean? Basically, I think, that he was one of the best pure hitters in ages, but that he could stand to lose a few pounds.

This was posted today:

http://jaysjournal.com/2019/07/18/blue-jays-arguing-vladimir-guerrero-jr-reset-demotion/

I'd be more inclined to let him work things out.

pic.twitter.com/o614UMDzfP

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 18, 2019

i mean what are his weaknesses? have pitchers "figured him out"?

He tore apart Triple-AAA pitching...I guess that's possible, but I've gotta believe it's just a case of him figuring out them. There's a Jays analyst, Kevin Barker--who drives me up the wall most of the time--who a couple of weeks ago was saying that pitchers are exploiting Guerrero's long swing, and that Vlad (he contrasted this with Gurriel, Jr.) isn't making any adjustments.

so they are, so to speak, "smokin him inside"?

Nice--and then frustrated Jays fans pound some Labatt's.

i think you hit the main point early on, clemenza: "I realize that he's 20"

check mike trout's rookie season stats, etc

i don't see any point in sending him down to learn stuff. he already crushed AAA. it's not like the jays are going anywhere this year (sorry) - so take advantage of this season to give him plenty of time to work on things at the big league level, imo

he has never, in a baseball sense, faced adversity before or been forced to make adjustments. this is the only level that can teach him anything

it's not like the jays are going anywhere this year (sorry)

I take great umbrage at you writing off the Jays so cavalierly.

No argument with anything above. He does need to lose a few pounds, though. You're not supposed to have the body of a 30-year-old Prince Fielder unless you're 30 and Prince Fielder.

He's not embarrassing himself out there, he's just not tearing it up. he's mediocre, though actually just a bit above replacement level. Karl otm w/r/t Mike Trout's first taste of MLB pitching.

First grand slam tonight. (Jays set a record for most grand slams from rookies.)

Vladdy notches his 1st career grand slam. This tshirt was made for him by a friend.
Translator Tito LeBron tells me it says “the man with power.” pic.twitter.com/dltXme8zsp

— Hazel Mae (@thehazelmae) July 21, 2019

Possible that he presses a bit at home:

Home - 5 HR, .256/.337/.430
Away - 10 HR, .308/.374/.522

Rogers is pretty neutral as a park.

Last 30 games for Vlad Guerrero Jr.
.380/.446/.676, 13 BB, 17K, 7 HR, 1.122 OPS#BlueJays

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) August 23, 2019

I thought the dome was a hitters park?

Dude has been on fire since Bichette came up.

Baseball Reference has:

Multi-year: Batting - 97, Pitching - 98
One-year: Batting - 100, Pitching - 101

Seems pretty neutral...but I might not be interpreting that right.

he seems to have figured out how to hit at home - 267 wRC+, .563 wOBA, 1.389 OPS!!

when will he receive the clemenza seal of approval tho

Hey--I'm happy! My issue all along was his seeming indifference to his weight. He did something about it, came back in much better shape, and--no coincidence, surely--he's the hitter we'd heard so much about.

i'm starting to think this guy might be good

it's weird, just knowing a guy by his stats. i've barely seen him play. not at all this year, not last year, only a bit during 2019. he's graded at 80/80 on raw power, but then you'd look at his minor league stats and see 13 HRs in 2017, 20 or so in 2018, ok. but not he's on pace for 45+ this year, while hitting .333, on base 44% of the time. O_O OK!

sorry, weird typos. i guess it's just cool to see him realize his power potential. it probably also helps, in a way, to be swinging against guys throwing 95+. solid contact against fast throwers = longballs

also, theoretically there's this thing with athletes "filling" out in their early 20s and getting stronger. personally, i have found that my body is like a coughed bird skeleton, but these are pro athletes so

maybe i’m cynical but i always chalked up the “filling out” to young athletes meeting “trainers” with very specific cutting edge uh nutritional regimes that dance on the edge of legality

it makes sense to be cynical when the words "a physical specimen" come up so often in baseball writing

“a UCLA product”

Vlad had actually dropped weight going into the season. he showed up last year a little heavier and didn't perform like people had hoped so there was some pressure there.
i think it helped his fielding a lot – but with his hitting he's just stopped chasing every other pitch. i think he was way too aggressive when he came up and was wiffing on too many major league caliber pitches.
i also think moving to 1B helped, kinda like with encarnacion. i feel like playing a position you are better suited for seems to make the hitting part easier.

A Triple Crown for Vlad is again not entirely out of reach. (It seemed so a few weeks ago). He's regained the lead in BA, is three HR behind Ohtani and five RBI behind Abreu. He's got 24 games to make that up.

If it ever happened, a Triple Crown vs. Ohtani would be a great MVP story.

ohtani has been awful at the plate for the past month, I don’t think the MVP is completely wrapped up yet

Yesterday Posnanski said it is, unanimous even, but I agree, Vlad still has a shot.

Assuming he doesn't get the Triple Crown, though, he'd probably have to hit lights out in some key games, and the Jays would probably have to make the playoffs to sway some voters. (Not looking to open up that argument, but I suspect it still factors in if the vote is close.)

Triple Crown stuff:

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-triple-crown-watch-2021

Not only is Guerrero contending for an AL Triple Crown, but he also has an opportunity to become the first player in 65 years (since Mickey Mantle in 1956) to lead both the AL and NL in all three categories.

• Batting average: second in MLB (two points behind Trea Turner)
• Home runs: tied for second in MLB (one behind Shohei Ohtani)
• RBIs: fourth in MLB (four behind José Abreu and Salvador Perez)

Should a mod change the name to “vladimir guerreros.”?!

vladimirs guerrero imo

Vladimi

There is only ONE Vladimir Guerreros thread

Important Vladimir Guerreros.

Home runs:
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -- 44
2. Shohei Ohtani -- 44
3. Salvador Perez -- 42

Batting average:
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -- .319
2. Yuli Gurriel -- .315
3. Michael Brantley -- .315

RBIs:
1. José Abreu -- 107
2. Salvador Perez -- 105
T-3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. -- 102
T-3. Rafael Devers -- 102
T-3. Teoscar Hernández -- 102

back off, teoscar

Baseball Reference WAR says two things: that one of Vladimir Guerrero's teammates was actually more valuable than Vlad was, and (2) that Carlos Correa was the best defensive player in the AL. I believe ONE of these conclusions. The other one is bat shit crazy.

— Bill James Online (@billjamesonline) October 6, 2021

Doubt he'd have such strong feelings on Correa's defensive value.

lol Vladdy hit this 427 feet pic.twitter.com/GZef4HU0y1

— Andrew Mearns (@MearnsPSA) April 14, 2022

Blood-Stained Hand of the Vlad

The Jays radio guys were saying how remarkably similar father and son are statistically to this point in their careers (404 games going into play today).

Senior: .312/.365/.562, 87 HR, 267 RBI

Junior: .284/.364/.513, 87 HR, 250 RBI

Seeing as Sr.'s numbers were compiled from 1996 into 2000--big hitting years--you'd have to adjust those slash stats downward, so yeah, probably pretty close. As is, unadjusted, dead on in HR and OBP.

(Sr.'s OPS+ through the completion of the 2000 season--i.e., to his 418th GP, is 146; Jr.'s is presently 136.)

They also pointed out Jr is doing this about two years younger!!

One of Posnanski's shareable posts:

https://joeposnanski.substack.com/p/ten-who-missed-no-10-vladimir-guerrero?r=1jtu0&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Yes, it is much, much, much too early to be talking about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Hall of Fame. As I write these words, he’s only 23 years old and has played fewer than 400 big-league games. But maybe it’s not too early to dream about something that seems impossible — a father and a son both ending up in the Baseball Hall of Fame...But even cooler — with all due respect to the Griffeys and Bondses, the Alous and Boones, Alomars and Witts, Fielders and Bells and Biggios and Bichettes — I think the Guerreros are already the most fun father-son duo in baseball history.

<3

Asked in NY about off-season comments in which he said he’d never sign with the Yankees, “not even dead,” Vlad Guerrero Jr. doubled down, saying he has personal/family reasons for preferring not to play for the Yankees and would “never” change his mind

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) April 21, 2023

BEST SHAPE OF HIS CAREER

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Looks incredible holy shit pic.twitter.com/XpPUb0k8Xm

— Gate 14 Podcast (@Gate14Pod) February 9, 2024

Looks v trim fwiw

The man absolutely has to pop-off. It's in the stars

.172/.276/.314. (Not his father's Sunday-beer-league line.)

I feel like I like Vladdy more than you do, and it’s still very early! Took a long at his unqualified (cos it’s early) 24 statcast numbers.

https://i.postimg.cc/KYWyN08j/IMG-8699.jpg

Is he pressing? He’s smoking the ball when he’s making contact and he’s walking a lot so his eye’s still great and the chase rate is too but he’s striking out well above his normal rate - he’s not normally a high strikeout guy. The sweet spot % (basically hitting the ball with a good launch angle that gets it off the ground and more likely to find grass rather than a glove) makes me think he’s missing his spots because he’s behind and maybe it’s a timing issue?

Assuming I’ve understood xwOBA correctly (I will welcome correction cos expected stats & me are not a happy match), he’s making good quality contact when he does make contact, maybe he’s just unlucky?

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-woba

You probably do at this point--the closer you are, the more exasperating he can be. It was the same last year: all his advanced metrics suggested he was hitting in bad luck. All year we heard that. I'm like Jeff Blair (local radio guy) at this point: enough. (Directing that at Vlad, not you.) The thing that really changed me with regards to Vlad was learning how dispropotionately his big year was driven by those minor-league parks.

He's definitely pressing. And I'm sure he's got a few dozen people whispering in his ear what he needs to do, from his father on down, and they're all telling him different things.

Vlad has hit another homer today. I've been pretty merciless about him the past couple of years, and even as his average started to steadily climb this year, I started calling him Mark Grace with less defense. But now his power is starting to catch up a bit; he's had a great almost two-and-a-half months. Since May 8: 14 HR, .336/.393/.557.

And this is where it gets tricky. The team seems to have made it clear he's again the cornerstone of the franchise and not on the market. I kind of hope they're still listening, though. Through April, that was easy: most everybody, me included, had had enough. But you weren't going to get fair value when he was struggling. Right now, though, I think you could get more than fair value if you're not convinced he's ever going to have another season like 2021. Even if he were to keep this up for another three or four seasons--.300, 25-30 HR, 4.0-5.0 WAR--which I don't think is a sure thing at all, you're probably going to have to sign him for twice that long.

I'd be listening.

Hot, yes--didn't realize how hot (still a small sample):

Best post-All Star Break OPS in a season (min. 120 PA):
1.455- Barry Bonds (2001)
1.449- Ted Williams (1957)
1.432- Bonds ('02)
1.421- Bonds ('04)
1.393- Bonds ('03)
1.373- Williams ('41)
Note: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. currently at mark of 1.617 through his first 61 such PA (14 GP) pic.twitter.com/om4MFL6eOg

— StatsCentre (@StatsCentre) August 3, 2024

3-3 with a HR and a double--what the hell has happened? Did he and the hitting coaches actually figure something out that took them two years?

Low leverage hitting

That stings

He's such a conundrum, and I don't envy management trying to figure out what to do going forward (he'll require an eight-year committment, I imagine). He comes up as a generational 20-year-old, has a pretty good season-and-a-half; not quite as advertised, but he's still really young. Has a monster season at 22, and people like me start putting up message-board polls compaing him to Soto and Acuna. Tails off quite a bit at 23, and it turns out--someone had to point this out to me--that his monster season had a lot to do with his 200 PA in minor-league parks. He drifts along through 2022 and 2023, still young and playing at a near- (but not) AS-level, then he's terrible for the first few weeks of 2024. Now he's back to 2021 Vlad for the past three months. Not unusual for pitchers to be so unpredictable, position players much less so.

"comparing"

That stings

Didn't see it, but double, triple, homer tonight and four RBI. The conundrum gets more conundrummy.

the bullpen really put some work towards tying to get him that last at bat so he could go for the cycle

Thermo, NoTime, Francis: what should be the ceiling on what they resign him for next year (if they do)? $200M? $250M? 8 years? 10 years? I keep using the word conundrum because who will you be committing all that money to: the ~ 12 months of Vlad the Generational Bat, or the ~ 45 months of Vlad the Pretty Good Everyday Player? And what happens when he hits 30?

Just passing by but you guys will know the answer to this: am I right in thinking that Rogers see him as the unambiguous face of the franchise and will be wanting to keep him to rebuild around? I see a lot of talk about trading him, but that seems far likelier with Bichette?

I think they're (to use a cliche) all-in now. I'm just curious what will happen if there are other suitors. (Yes, Bichette seems to be on much shakier ground--and has also, unlike Vlad, given out subtle signals that he'd rather be elsewhere.)

From Sportsnet: "Vladimir Guerrero Jr. says his home run in the Blue Jays’ 7-6 win over the Orioles was the first in MLB that his father, Vladimir Guerrero, witnessed in person." At 153 and counting, that seems pretty remarkable.

I know this is a real Rube Goldberg contraption, but the list sure is impressive:

Players with 35+ hits, 10+ doubles, 10+ homers & 10+ walks over a 20-game span in MLB's modern era:

Babe Ruth, Yankees (1922)
Rogers Hornsby, Braves (1928)
Lou Gehrig, Yankees (1936)
Joe DiMaggio, Yankees (1937)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2024)

xp on the re-sign - idk much at all about this stuff, but i'm thinking they go for $240/8 but i'd still be happy at like $280/10? would def do 10. They could spend a billion if they wanted to, that's why i'm just not sure

i mean he's technically Canadian, potential monster, fun-lovin face of the franchise. if he at all is willing to sign that's a major loss if they don't

I suppose 10 years down the road $28M/year won't be all that much. Anyway, they pretty much have to sign him now or the fanbase will revolt.

I suppose 10 years down the road $28M/year won't be all that much. Anyway, they pretty much have to sign him now or the fanbase will revolt.

I said it twice, so now they really have to sign him.