2018 NLCS - Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers

As much as I'd like to see the Brewers go all the way, I have a feeling that the Dodgers, who couldn't find a way to turn it on for most of the regular season, have entered beast mode and are going to roll here.

LA in 6

feel like this series is gonna be a referendum on "how important are ace starters really"

Los Doyers in 6.

Los vatos locos en 7 guey no mames

feel like this series is gonna be a referendum on "how important are ace starters really"

― frogbs, Thursday, October 11, 2018 9:00 AM (three hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

2015 Royals vs that Mets rotation decided that referendum in my opinion, even with Cueto's masterpiece.

brewers in 5

short series don't decide anything except themselves

i'm working tomorrow's game in milwaukee - in the freezing ass cold outside

Kershaw over his last 5 post-seasons starts: 3 quality starts + Game 5 of the 2017 NLCS + Game 5 of the World Series where he got relatively shelled (so did everyone in that game)

+ that superb relief appearance in game 7 of the world series.

But he ain't clutch for the radio talkers.

short series don't decide anything except themselves

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Thursday, October 11, 2018 12:30 PM (fifteen minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

that's the long answer version of my post, rather.

just got Tix for Game 2. probably will wear my AUTHENTIC Counsell jersey I bought in '08, but I'm tempted to wear this instead

https://www.amazon.com/Just-Hope-Both-Teams-T-Shirt/dp/B07239YFQW

i know they've gotten this far and bullpenning and everything but the brewers running out gio gonzalez, wade miley and joulys chacin in the first three games doesn't really inspire confidence

Automatic thread bump. This poll's results are now in.

Hoping and voted Brew Crew in 7. Bums will probably roll thou.

Hard to bet against LA, but I want the Brewers to crush them.

Front row Marlins guy with the orange shirt is in the house

btw Chris Singleton on the radio called the Machado HR about 30 seconds in advance, incl that it'd be a changeup

That's ridiculous, taking out Gonzalez.

stealth opener

i'm actually glad to hear Joe Buck as that Joe Davis guy was too pro Dodgers last round.

Go Brew Crew!

ye gods too bad McCarver isnt around to decry this bullpenning folderol

nice

Counsell is a genius.

John Smoltz is doing a good job, glad Fox brought him aboard.

obv a masterstroke by Counsell

haha, this is a great inning.

has a catcher ever had a PB and CI on consecutive batters in postseason?

i mean Jerry Grote could've blocked that pitch and he's about 75

ENGELBERG!

grandalamo

https://consequenceofsound.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/bnb-1977-05-mike-engelberg.png?w=500&h=684

Is Counsell really about to put Hader on the mound in the 4th inning

Nothing better than Kershaw imploding

everything he's done has worked xp

Bee? go to hell

he had a little 'help' don't you think

Sometimes you just gotta tip your hat, look yourself in the mirror, and say, "You know what? It is what it is. We didn't execute."

are you quoting Smoltz? sounds like him

Smoltz Megamix, yes.

The only other time that a catcher had an error, passed ball, and catcher's interference in the same postseason inning came exactly one year ago today in NLDS Gm 5 - The Nats' Matt Wieters had a passed ball and error on the same play, followed by CI. https://t.co/YvCQdZLvz4

— Stats By STATS (@StatsBySTATS) October 13, 2018

I have to be a Dodger hater Morb, otherwise I wouldn't be a proper Giants fan.

Xpost

This is going pretty well

Wtf

He’s going two innings I guess

Get loose, Moose Haas.

Hader on four days rest is just the most ridiculous bullshit

#PayGaryWright

Hader on for a third inning wtf is this

I don't get it

He’s at 42 pitches now this is weird

I don’t think it’s a terrible idea. He’s looked lights out coming into this one.

Hate to say it but Thick Jesus is back on his shit

Jeffress vs. Machado with the bases loaded should be pretty interesting

barf

Who else do the Brewers have left besides Knebel?

as far as straight relievers, no one. if they go to the 10th it'll probably be Freddy Peralta

That was stressful

Here we go

?

posts that effortlessly summarize something or another

welp

Holy shit Cain had that in his glove

Game

Great game.

That was some baseball huh

Thought Taylor's ball was going out. Turner completing the golden sombrero with the tying run on third was quite the ending.

Four hours to play a 6-5 nine inning game ... welcome to the no-starter era.

Jesus take the wheel

I guess we can go back to talking about how Kershaw isn't clutch, now that he's had his shortest ever postseason start and gave up a home run to a left handed batting pitcher.

I really think that giving up a home run to the opposing pitcher does terrible things to the psyche. I've never seen anyone have a good start after that.

ban the DH

Good news guys my heart rate finally went down

looks like i missed an exciting conclusion

(i can't stay awake for these fucking games)

What was my reaction when Brandon Woodruff hit that home run? Turns out that @BenLindbergh and @based_ball were recording it. https://t.co/8FfawebUqL

— Grant Brisbee (@GrantBrisbee) October 13, 2018

Fell asleep and missed the Dodgers' near-comeback. I'm still mystified as to why they pulled Gonzalez, fluky HR or no HR. You get a proven veteran down the stretch in anticipation of making the playoffs, he pitches very well in his last three starts, and then you pull him after two innings in the LCS opener after 32 pitches. After which, you get your win but burn through seven pitchers. Just going by the boxscore, it looks like that old thing where Counsell kept throwing out pitchers until he found the one guy--Soria, I take it--who didn't have his stuff.

I assumed at the time he had some kind of injury - but I guess that wasn’t the case?!

Can't find anything online. I guess they just wanted to get Woodruff and his .958 OPS+ up to the plate--they had to choose between burning a starter or a reliever, and they chose the latter. (I'm being facetious, I think.)

1 - 0

make that 2-0

this would be their 13th win in a row(!)

wade miley!!?!!

i wonder if anyone calls him lemmy

i think i'm rooting for the brewers at this point. fun team

Jeffress vs. Puig was great.

i'm listening on the radio, but i want to see the video of him snapping the bat over his leg

Sliding into first!

That was close, good game

When the bat gets blamed for the K 👀

(via @FOXSports)pic.twitter.com/IvEddOj6Vi

— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) October 13, 2018

That was a big league double play.

whoa, thanks polyphonic

That sucks

I thought he got it

"'That bat doesn't work,' he said."

You get a proven veteran down the stretch

ok, i lol'd. Game 1 was gen previewed online with "Counsell rolls the dice with mediocre veteran Gio Gonzalez."

caught the last 3 innings tonight in a bar. anyone can have a bad week, but Grandal sliding into first on a GIDP proves he's a dumbass. FEET FIRST, no less.

He was out by five feet either way.

Re: Gonzalez getting pulled after two innings, I think not having the DH makes these decisions easier. These teams are emptying their bullpens every game and consequently their benches too, of course to gain more favourable matchups but also to avoid letting the pitchers hit (Woodruff's HR and Miley's two hits being the exceptions). It will be interesting to see how this changes in the WS, if Milwaukee gets there.

They're onto game 3, so it doesn't matter, but starting in 2010, Gonazlez has had two poor seasons (including this one, although his three starts with the Brewers were very good), two that were so-so (2014/15), and five that were good-to-excellent, including third- and sixth-place Cy Young finishes. To me, that's a high bar for mediocre.

this year, he's the oldest and most mediocre he's ever been. Counsell felt his bullpen is better.

Sure. I guess my point is, why get him in the first place if that's how you feel, and why start him in the opening game? He didn't look old or mediocre in September, when he threw 25 innings, gave up 14 hits, and posted a 2.13 ERA.

he ate 2 innings

You kind of answered your own question there -- he pitched well down the stretch and helped them win the division. But past success doesn't necessarily translate to future success, and even Gonzalez's mom doesn't think his true talent is that of a pitcher with a 2.13 ERA. The opening game of the series is ideal for this strategy because the bullpen is as fresh as it's gonna be.

Had about a 2.1 ERA to finish the regular season with Milwaukee. Never gave up more than three hits (though a little more trouble with walks).

Matter of fact, he was really freaking good in April and May. 6-2 with a 2.1 ERA.

I kinda like the strategy, since it coaxes LA into filling their lineup with righties only to pull the rug out after 2 innings

tbh I'm not sure how much it matters which levers Counsell pulls right now. seven players on their active rosters have started games and several of them are super fresh - Freddy Peralta and Junior Guerra have not pitched at all this postseason. always thought it was odd to see so many FOX analysts fret about the Brewers burning up their bullpen - they've got several guys that can go 4-5 innings if need be. none of them are particularly great but they've all been serviceable.

Did Peralta have an innings ceiling?

don't think he'd hit one...he's only pitched 78 this year. he definitely got knocked around the more he started but he also racked up tons of K's in the early going so who knows with him. he's only 22.

Had to do the math & I'm showing 141?:

2018
2.0 IP - A Wisc
61.0 IP - AAA Col Spr
78.0 IP - MLB Mil

I think the back of envelope calc Innings Limits is last year +25% which comes out to 150. Seems pretty close imho, esp as he probably hasn't seen action in some time.

I feel terrible for that wall after Bellinger crashed into it.

Well when you put it that way yeah he’s close. I didn’t think he pitched so much in AAA....thought he was brought up earlier

Good game so far....Chacin pitching into the 6th right into the heart of the order. Guessing he’s got a very short leash.

Going back to game 163, Chacin has pitched 16 innings, 7 hits, one earned run.

Fuck yeah Arcia!

Speaking of guys who really stepped it up damn. Kratz and Arcia the dynamic duo

Already matched his regular season total lmao

i know they've gotten this far and bullpenning and everything but the brewers running out gio gonzalez, wade miley and joulys chacin in the first three games doesn't really inspire confidence

― mookieproof, Thursday, October 11, 2018 3:44 PM (four days ago)

dodgers starters' era in the series: 6.28
brewers starters: 0.69

#nice

hahahahahah Yelich you rule

Yelich you suck

Grandal on the other hand just not having a good day

I would be good with not using Hader unless a couple dudes get on

Hmmm ok guess Counsell really wants this one

that is what i'm thinking but right there with you. they could have used him in game 2.

I like it, glad he trusted other pitchers

welp

Jeffress having a rough go again

Is Bellinger the worst playoff batter ever? How would one determine that?

Just one more

Brew crew have been showing that they might actually be the better team

Never a doubt

Another suspensful game... def above average playoffs from what I've seen!

some real craziness with small sample sizes in these playoffs

Jeffress ain't pitching great but the BABIP against him has been like .800

He was the victim of some dink hits in game 2 that's for sure

hard to be too down on him, he did strike out 2 in the 9th. the AB vs. Puig was weird...must've really thought he was gonna chase that inside pitch but he didn't bite

That last 97 mph fastball on the outside corner was the pitch of a reliever who has all the confidence in the world (although Kratz framed it perfectly), I think Jeffress passed a hurdle.

jeffress is so fun to watch, dont know how he doesnt pass out, he's always breathing so hard.

The mental aspect seems to apply to both sides here. when guys like Knebel and Hader are rolling the way they are you can see it in the batters' approach - they're just wildly swinging and trying to fight pitches off, striking out on pitches that are 6 inches out of the zone because they feel they just have to guess. Jeffress on the other hand looks pretty mortal right now, and I wonder if his postseason struggles caused Puig to suddenly show patience with that inside pitch that he often strikes out on.

cody bellinger, career postseason

22 G, 15-for-92, .176/.239/.353, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 7 BB, 34 K

this season he's 1-for-21 with 5 K and has been brutally unlucky -- .063 BABIP

This is far better than I imagined.

he's due, as my dad usta say

feels like either of these teams is going to have trouble beating either the red sox or the astros

i want to know how many players have played 75+ games at both first base and center field in one season, as bellinger did this year

Brad Wilkerson?

brutally unlucky -- .063 BABIP

I would think 16 AB would be a small enough sample size to not really confirm whether he's been unlucky or not.

How about his major league record 28 strikeouts in last year's playoffs?

Counsell’s already got Peralta warming up

It’s 1-0 after 1

To me--sorry to harp on this--that all goes back to game one. These guys, rich as they are, are human beings, not automatons. How can you pitch if you think your manager's just waiting for an excuse to get you out of the game? So you go for a ball you shouldn't have gone for, and then, instead of admitting you're hurt, you make a transparently misguided attempt to keep pitching.

Love you Peralta.

bis

I dunno about that clem, pitchers always go for balls like that

feel like Gio was told during Game 1 that he was only gonna go at most once through the lineup

I would think 16 AB would be a small enough sample size to not really confirm whether he's been unlucky or not.

21 AB is too small a sample to confirm that he sucks; considering he has a (n above-average) career .306 BABIP in 1180 regular-season PA, i don't think it's unfair to call him unlucky within the 2018 playoff sample

Peralta....dealing ????

Brewers looking mighty helpless against that curveball

A+ work for the house organist playing "Candyman" after this

WILL SOMEBODY GET THE KID A HAPPY MEAL??? pic.twitter.com/fbi5qz6Qkd

— MLB GIFS (@MLBGIFs) October 17, 2018

jfc the Dodgers seem flustered even though they're only down......zero

Watched game 2 with my father who was in town and he mentioned that Moustakas, Braun & Yelich all grew up in LA as diehard Dodgers fans.

BUR NE S

such weird kerning on the Brews jerseys

this is just the same inning over and over again

21 AB is too small a sample to confirm that he sucks; considering he has a (n above-average) career .306 BABIP in 1180 regular-season PA, i don't think it's unfair to call him unlucky within the 2018 playoff sample

16 AB before tonight where he put the ball in play. I would think in small sample sizes that it's more common for an average to be low because a batter was making weak contact, not hitting em where the ain't, etc.

where THEY ain't

Wait, is this actually the same inning over and over again?

wtf machado

Aguilar is a badass for not freaking out over that.

Im into it. Baseball should have more villains.

that was pretty dirty though

Lol at these announcers getting the vapours.

Schoop has been really bad at the plate...0 for 5 including a double play, nothing hit out of the infield

Yeah, but it’s his birthday. It all evens out

its not anymore

that's true. take the bum out!

ok, now Aguilar needs to hit a line drive off of machado's balls that then richochets into the stands for a HR

3 hours ago

Here is an0other prediction. This game will go at least 14 innings.

— Norm Macdonald (@normmacdonald) October 17, 2018

I'm getting an A-Rod vibe from this Machado heel turn.

well Jesus almost got one out

hi guys, just woke up. any pitchers left?

what did Machado do?

unfortunately Gio Gonzalez needed surgery for his injured ankle, but the procedure was a success, and he's completed his rehabilitation

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) October 17, 2018

Come on Machado, don't do this. pic.twitter.com/xyx37Zncip

— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) October 17, 2018

goddammit

god fucking damnit of all the people

In baseball, cheaters win about 50% of the time

Machado that is. feel good for Bellinger at least. fuck. good night

well. nicely timed on my part

sorry to be the Dark Angel, frogbs

(we all need a 7-game series, tho)

all the cars leaving Dodger Stadium from Game 4 can wave to the cars arriving at Dodger Stadium for Game 5

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) October 17, 2018

This series is definitely living up to expectations.

If that pickoff throw was to the other side of the bag, Machado is picked off easily and the inning is over. Game of inches.

Watching that game-winning single again:

-- Aguilar barely missed a diving stop before the ball left the infield
-- Yelich's throw home was on the money and in the old days, the catcher would have blocked the plate and Machado probably would have been stuffed for the out. That's just an observation -- I'm not saying I want to see home plate collisions again. When watching it live I thought that Machado made a sneaky brilliant slide to get around the tag, but on the replay with the camera looking down the third base line you can see it was an easy slide to make.

Fell asleep in my chair before midnight, woke up after 1:00 to see what felt like eight guys strike out in about 10 minutes. Packed it in and missed the end. Surprised Bellinger won it--he looks terrible whenever I see him.

pitchers always go for balls like that

You're right, it's a reflex play.

Not only did Bellinger get the winning hit he also made a crazy diving catch on what would’ve been a leadoff double by Cain in the 10th. Dodgers defense played really well.

Yes that catch was huge. I didn't think he was going to get there.

wow at machado kicking aguilar. fuck that guy

tbqh all the remaining teams are hard to root for

can't get with Milwaukee cuz I hate Moustakas, and they are clearly the weakest of the four

why do you hate moustakas? i don't think he even has a personality

left over from 2015 WS

lol it doesn't take much, Morbs

Machado’s heel turn might be his way of showing how well he can fit in with the Yankees next year

already a True Yankee

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25004441/milwaukee-brewers-outfielder-christian-yelich-calls-los-angeles-dodgers-star-manny-machado-dirty-player

also, Zach Davies has replaced Gio on the Brewers roster

I guess that's one way to get a fresh arm. Amusingly I think the Brewers are actually in a better spot, pen-wise - they got Woodruff and Cedeno, and of course Jeffress is gonna come out for at least one. Meanwhile the Dodgers used everyone last night. Difference of course being Kershaw. If Milwaukee can jump on him early again....

Last night's game ran so long that when Uecker tried to read the final sponsorship, he said "Ah, Christ, I can't find it" and signed off.

— Richard M. Nixon (@dick_nixon) October 17, 2018

max muncy at 2B today

one last point about last night's game - I see a lot of people saying the 'obvious' move was to walk Bellinger and Grandal to load the bases and face Urias with 2 outs, given the Dodgers bench was empty. but wouldn't whatever win probability added there be cancelled out by having to face the top three in the bottom of the 14th, which you'd have to pitch anyway? if you're up a run, or even if you're the home team and can walk it off, it makes some sense, but in the particular situation the Brewers were in, isn't it better to just take your chances with the ice cold Bellinger?

i think the major consideration was that counsell didn't want to move the winning run to third, where a walk or a wild pitch loses the game. i doubt that he was worrying at all about facing the top of the order with the bases empty next inning -- after all, they might have a five-run lead by then

not with the bottom of their lineup coming up. you're more likely to score 1 than every other (nonzero) total combined.

but yeah I do agree that it's no guarantee that Guerra gets out of that bases loaded situation, even when facing the pitcher. imagine if he gets 2-0 trying to get him to chase...even Urias could probably get a good swing on one down the middle.

i probably would have pitched to Bellinger.

also machado is a punk. i hope he signs for slightly less than the ridiculous amount of money he's probably going to sign for.

frogbs, "ice cold" has not been proven to exist. 0-for-whatever is not predictive, as Bellinger proceeded to demonstrate.

Nor has it been proven to not exist

It’s counterintuitive to suggest that players are never struggling with their timing with their mechanics or with their mental approach to hitting

That isn't suggested... just that we don't know / can't predict when that will end!

I feel its more akin to a poker player going on tilt, where bad results lead to bad play and therefore an increased likelihood of more bad results. Bellinger obviously isn't a .100 hitter or whatever but if he's frustrated and sad he's gonna be off his career numbers

not that it affects the calculation much, I think it's close either way but I'd be interested to see a Fangraph person take the question on

this doesn't exactly take it on, but there's some other stuff

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cody-bellinger-wasnt-clutch-until-he-was

Machado was fined an undisclosed amount

now *that* is a quick hook

Holy shit Miley is already out lmao Counsell

Miley out after 5 pitches.

I hear an embolism in Toronto...

saving him for game six on full rest, get the dodgers lineup all wacky for a lefty? nice

Yeah I honestly wonder if that was the plan

Did Craig Counsell just take a page from Bucky Harris in the 1924 World Series?

Harris started righty Curly Ogden for one out in Game 7 to mess up John McGraw's lineup, then went to George Modridge: https://t.co/H7TixmpzFF

— Matt Kelly (@mattkellyMLB) October 17, 2018

i think it was definitely the plan; who knows if it will actually work

i had to lol at this quote:

Brewers manager Craig Counsell was asked after Game 4 whether Machado was going beyond the limits of playing hard and responded by saying: "I don't think he's playing all that hard."

Yeah on the radio it sounded like he might be hurt but he’s clearly not

Lol this is amazing

wanted to get Woodruff's bat in vs Kershaw

In Game 7 of the 1924 World Series, Washington's righty starter Curly Ogden was pulled for a lefty after two batters, to mess with New York's line-up. Here's how it played in the press.

whipping via psychology!!! pic.twitter.com/B29XYEUe3V

— Emma Baccellieri (@emmabaccellieri) October 17, 2018

Maaan did the Crew miss a big opportunity there

"whipping via psychology" would be a good politics thread title

That.....feels like game over

Was that Muncy’s first slide?

Hey Grandy finally got the big hit

I started this series more or less neutral, with maybe a slight preference for the Brewers. I've been rooting for L.A. since it got underway, though, because of Counsell's nonsense. Successful strategies are imitated, and I want this one to die an immediate death. (If someone wants to unearth it in another 94 years, have at it.)

saw the pivotal 6th and 7th (over an hour) in a bar. Corbin Burnes? Wasn't he on "L.A. Law"?

I hope no starters go more than 2 next year. FOR THE TIMES THEY ARE AAAAAAA-

xp wait you find counsell's strategies worse than machado deliberately kicking a first baseman's ankle?

I'd agree if the Brewers had the payroll of the Dodgers/Astros/Red Sox.

dirty play has a rich history; not letting a pitcher earn a "win" under 19th-century accounting schemes is meddling with the primal forces of nature!

speaking of dirty play having a rich history, feels like the machado incident would have been answered with a beanball in pretty much any game from the invention of baseball up to around 199X or so

even past that, a manager like larussa would've ordered a beaning, no doubt

Right in the beans

the machado incident *will* be answered with a beanball at some point when the stakes are lower, even if he's on a different team and even if it takes a couple years

Don't care about the pitcher-win (you would need that spelled out, of course). The Machado play is on Machado--I don't expect that will be imitated as a strategy. I just have this weird idea that the starters are, by and large, the best pitchers out there, and I like seeing them pitch deeper into the game than an endless procession of the guys who aren't, by and large, the best pitchers out there.

This strategy (Miley) isn't new at all, Jim Leyland famously pulled the same trick in the 1990 NLCS and I'm fairly sure it wasn't too uncommon during the era of Stengel's Yankees.

I'm not necessarily saying it's new, but if you have to go back 28 years to pull out another example, it's not very common either. Except that, while it was a gimmicky move then, it feels like we're at a point in history where it really could become commonly adopted. Sorry, I just don't want to see that. I don't want a revolving door of Joe Biaginis. I thought the clueless misogynist Bill James had a salient point the other day:

Since baseball exists only to be enjoyed and pro baseball is dependent for its existence on those who enjoy it, the fact that many people LIKE the old system of ace starters and starter accountability is very relevant to debates about our future.

Except that relievers are better at getting outs than starters these days, even on playoff caliber teams as we're seeing.

You definitely can't say that about Joe Biagini.

i want my Bob Gibson complete game with a higher mound, consarn it!

kErShaW cAn’T pItCh In ThE pLaYoFfS https://t.co/Pu7fd0DQsk

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) October 18, 2018

Are you ever able, in the course of a disagreement, to refrain from wildly caricaturing the other side? I suggested earlier in this thread, using Kershaw's Atlanta game as a test case, that the Gibson-type postseason start now seemed to be an impossibility. And if that's the case, that that part of baseball history is officially closed, yes, I think the game is poorer because of it.

To take that, meld it with my argument that I don't want every post-season game to be bullpen day, and come out with your ridiculous contention that I'm pining for 1968, that's basically how you approach every issue, isn't it? When it comes to the gray area of anything, you're hopelessly lost.

Posnanski can write about this because--after a career advocating against putting Morris in the HOF, arguing for Raines and Whittaker, and just in general being very attentive to the sabermetric side of things--you can't caricature him as Joe Morgan. He's the best kind of baseball writer, one who can hold two contradictory thoughts in his mind at the same time.

This is not you.

It's fun for me, clem.

(also if 21st-century MLB alienates you, you'll have more time to catch up with some films made after 1978)

Case in point.

You definitely can't say that about Joe Biagini.

I realize I'm starting to use Biagini like I use (depending upon the decade in question) Wishbone Ash, an Doctor and the Medics, and Right Said Fred when writing about music, as kind of all-purpose punchline.

(That "an" needs to be re-positioned towards the end.)

the Dodgers kinda suspected this was coming, didn't they? they had two lefties in the lineup last night. against Miley in Game 2 they had none.

this sort of postseason overmanaging is nothing new...y'all remember LaRussa, right?

the starters are, by and large, the best pitchers out there, and I like seeing them pitch deeper into the game than an endless procession of the guys who aren't, by and large, the best pitchers out there

this is largely true, but much less so when your available starter is wade miley on short rest. (he pitched pretty well for milwaukee this year, but overall he's mediocre.) counsell's just trying to win a playoff game against a team that wildly outspends and outguns his; it didn't work, but whatever.

rooting and hating in sports is weird and irrational, but tbh it would make more sense to me to hate the brewers for hader being a bigot or braun a liar or for bud selig's long-ago crimes than because some team might copy this one weird trick. your mileage, of course, varies

I like the traditional starter model too cuz it kind of feels like a video game where you're trying to get to the last level on 1 life. But I think at this point it's pretty clear that this ain't the best way to win baseball games - we know starters do worse their 3rd time through, we know throwing a ton of innings is bad for their health, and we're entering an era full of relievers who can throw 1-2 innings of straight-up unhittable 98 mph pitches (which is its own problem, imo).

The fact that managers are *just now* realizing this feels overdue...sorta like the quote-unquote "4th down revolution" in the NFL where coaches are finally making the obviously correct decision after decades of going the "safe" route

How about this fix - every time a relief pitcher comes in, the mound gets moved back 6 inches

sounds like a proposal for the Effectively Wild podcast

rooting and hating in sports is weird and irrational

In general, I do agree with the hating part of that. I don't even hate the Brewers here--I don't like the manager's strategy, but I don't hate the team. They're a good story. Selig's ancient history, the actions of Braun and Hader are theirs and theirs alone.

Anyway, I think the general point about the Kershaw stat is not that he hasn't been subpar in the postseason, just that he has been good or dominant in about a third of his appearances.

Clem, I have 3 major issues with your opinion on bullpenning. First, the obvious, put yourself in the managers shoes, you know how every inning count in a post-season game. If your starter can't face the first time through the order without allowing 4 runs, do you keep him up? Or do you send your best bullpen asset? Blaming any manager to comply with the do or die nature of post-season seems very counter-intuitive to me. Especially when one of these bullpens game happened because Counsell's third starter hurt his ankle after 3 outs.

Second, you know that if Counsell could send Max Scherzer and Blake Snell, he would. This is the situation MLB placed itself in, it's now very difficult for lower market teams to consistently get good starters. Heck, even the Yankees and Cubs had many question marks beyond Tanaka and Hendricks. Once Peralta faded from lack of experience and Davies got figured out, the Brewers parted with two prospects to get Gio, so it's not like the Brewers aren't looking for reliable starters. The situation is so dire for the Brewers that now Zach Davies might start a NLCS elimination game, this is not a strategy, this might be the only way for the Brewers to compete. Kevin Cash said on one of those idiotic MLB media talk show that 'opening' would be abandoned if he had the Astros' or Red Sox's roster, a manager just got to maximise what he has under his hand to win.

Third, yes starters are one of the brillant aspect of this brillant sport, it's what got me into loving the game, but to compare Hader/Knebel/Jeffress/Soria to a Biaginis after Biaginis is unfair and not really looking for excitement where it is. If you don't get a kick from Hader's fastball/slider combo then... I don't know really. Those three innings Peralta pitched were spectacle, warts and all. So was freaking Woodruff hitting a home run off Kershaw. Those things are fun, those players are good, it's pitching duels, it's good baseball. We might agree on something, there is a limit to my enthusiasm to how bullpens can be weaponized. I too fear the clock is ticking on a Yankees WS run where a 100 m$ bullpen pitch 75% of the post-season, this is where we might be going. Might. But even then the problem would not lie in the manager and his use of bullpen and starters, it is just grave payroll disparities.

Second, you know that if Counsell could send Max Scherzer and Blake Snell, he would.

Does Clem even know who Snell is yet?

Pretty certain he discussed Snell extensively in the AL Cy Young debate, like everyone.

Missed Snell from Tampa Bay (because I don't know who Snell from Tampa Bay is).

― clemenza, Saturday, July 7, 2018 5:54 AM (three months ago)

. I too fear the clock is ticking on a Yankees WS run where a 100 m$ bullpen pitch 75% of the post-season, this is where we might be going.

I'd be worried about this more if those pitchers had an ability to pitch more than say 5-6 innings in a 7-game series. If you rewatch that Hader 3-inning outing...by the 3rd inning his velocity had notably dropped and all three outs he got were long fly balls. But I agree that there's something worrisome there. The way things are going we might have dozens of Aroldis Chapman-type relievers in 2030, which I don't think would be good for the game.

Oh, I'm always behind the curve with emerging stars. I didn't know Snell on July 7; obviously, I got to know him quickly after that. Years ago, I put a poll up here about the best age-25 starters, something like that, and someone suggested I'd missed (the pre-Cy) Kershaw; I was basically, "Kershaw?"

If a guy gives up four runs, absolutely, pull him. I was surprised Cora hung in as long as he did with Price the other day. What I'm against is what Counsell did with Gonzalez in Game 1--preemptively pull him, after he gave up one run in two innings (least of all in the opening game--did he really have to go through seven pitchers out of the gate?). The small-market argument I get up to a point, but the season is over, it's been played. Milwaukee won 96 games, the Dodgers won 92. Maybe Counsell still feels he's working from some innate disadvantage, and has to reinvent the game to have a chance, but I doubt that the Milwaukee players are sitting in the dugout thinking, "How are we ever going to compete with this gargantuan payroll? We need to be creative." They won four more games than the Dodgers--I'm sure they're playing with all the confidence in the world. I won't even get into the amusing mindset that a) complains about the length of games, and b) seems to endorse the bullpenapalooza style of management. There is a connection there.

but to compare Hader/Knebel/Jeffress/Soria to a Biaginis after Biaginis is unfair

Fair point. As I wrote above, I just find it fun to pick on Biagini.

I know I'm complaining into the void. This is where we are, and this is where we're staying. But it doesn't mean I have to like it or agree with it.

I doubt you could find a better snapshot of what was both great and disastrous about The Way Things Used to Be than Luis Tiant and the '75 Series. I feel very fortunate to have seen his opening-game win (a CG five-hit shutout) and, maybe even more so, his improbable CG win in game 4, where he was left out there for 9 hits, 4 walks, and 4 runs, against the Big Red Machine, no less, and the Red Sox won 5-4. No pitch count, but I bet he threw 130 pitches at least. Roger Angell wrote very well about those games, and there was also the Sports Illustrated account, probably by Ron Firmite--I was rooting for the Reds, but there was something indelible and thrilling about what Tiant did, and I can still picture him out there. I think it's too bad you probably won't get to see anything like that again--certainly not the 5-4 win.

The cost? They threw him out again for Game 6--yes, that Game 6 (there'd been a few days' worth of rain postponements)--and left him in for 7 innings of 11 hits, 2 walks, and 6 runs. Insane. Boston lost, and you know the rest. That would never happen again. Thankfully.

Something lost, something gained.

Um, minor correction--Boston won game 6. Some guy hit a home run, I think. But the point about Tiant stands.

What Counsell's doing here isn't some gimmicky underdog strategy like the full-court press or going for it on every 4th down, it's a function of how this team is built, which in itself is a function of Milwaukee's small-market payroll and a smarter front office. They came into the year with money to spend and a obvious need for a frontline starter, and instead spent their money on Cain and two SPs that weren't really on anyone's radar (Chacin and Gallardo). They then dealt four of their big prospects (including their #1 guy!) for Yelich, something which a "rebuilding" team doesn't often do. They came into the season with up to six potential starting outfielders, not dealing any of them because they didn't receive an acceptable offer (rumor was that nobody was willing to offer much, figuring that Milwaukee was desperate to offload their logjam). During the season they traded for two middle infielders they didn't really need, and picked up Soria despite having a bullpen that was already stacked. That's just been their MO, pick up value any time you can, don't sell low, and ask players to move around to accommodate. Hence Braun at 1B, Thames in the outfield, Shaw at 2B, like 9 different guys starting games...some of this didn't really work out, but that's the beauty of the regular season, you have time to figure it out.

So yeah, they get into the playoffs with a pretty great team, albeit one with a weird roster that's like, 3-4 closers and 7 #3 starters. Counsell's just doing what every good manager ought to do, play to your team's strengths, which in this case is not just getting your lockdown relievers in for as many innings as you can, and also the fact that your starters are fairly interchangeable, so there's no reason to leave anyone out there to the point where they become less effective. The Miley/Woodruff thing is not something a traditionally-built playoff team could really pull off. For most teams, losing your Game 1 starter to injury would be devastating...for Milwaukee, it doesn't really matter at all. If Milwaukee had pursued someone like Arrieta they might not have to rely on 'gimmicky' stuff like this but they also might not have even made the playoffs in the first place. Like yeah, getting a 5 WAR season out of a guy making $22M is a bargain, but a better bargain is picking up 3-4 dudes off the scrapheap who can combine for that and don't hamstring your payroll later on. You just have to figure out how to field a team out of those guys.

Okay. I don't have anything else to add to what I wrote above...You're a Brewers fan, so obviously you know their situation much better than I do.

apropos of nothing i'm really glad to see Austin Barnes getting the nod after Grandal's abominable performance in gm 2. i really like his demeanor on both O and D

even if tonight’s game is just a normal nine-inning affair, it will end at midnight eastern. smh

yes i am an eastern time chauvinist, no i do not care about dodger fans and their friday work schedules

Tiant threw 155 pitches in Game 4. (Looked it up.)

Yikes. Where did you find that, Tim? Nothing on Baseball Reference, unless I'm missing it.

xxpost yeah they have the good weather already

Ha

Big papi licked a bat

ugh back to Fox

I'm listening to Uecker on the mlb.tv radio feed. He's VERY excited about this bottom of the first.

Well this is very nice

Is frogbs at the game?

well indeed

Oh my god Miley almost made it 6-1

No I went to Game 2 lol

Great game so far. You should have heard Dodgers fan today, saying it's in the bag

yes i am an eastern time chauvinist, no i do not care about dodger fans and their friday work schedules

East coast people are funny. The 5 PM or later start time on the West Coast will never change

Ryu is either tipping his pitches or the Brewers got a great scouting report. Ripping three doubles on three pitches is unreal.

Fucken machado

Fucken right

I think the crowd is way into his head. (Good.)

big gamble w Knebel here

Yeah I don’t agree with that. Take out Knebel, you need him for Game 7 and Haders going two. If Santana got a hot it’s effectively game over.

Manny Machado Denies Playing Dirty After Late Slide Into Pitcher’s Mound https://t.co/H3qWnREEcV pic.twitter.com/gV4lmEX0c0

— Onion Sports Network (@OnionSports) October 20, 2018

See that’s the Jeffress I remember

I hope he pitches the eighth

Aguilar is awesome there's no words.

I would not have run there

That's why Aguilar is awesome.

They can't overturn that, good

That is big

Yeah I think he might have been out but oh well

Maaan not having to use Hader would be awesome

I'm so happy right now

Is that Marlins’ Man wife? Cause this is ridiculous.

Perfect

Dozier is garbage.

That’s one earned run on Machado.

can't stop looking at that huge zit on Burnes' neck

oh shit he's got one on each side of his neck, he's a frankenpitcher

as y'all can see I'm focused on the important things

😁

xpost check what I wrote 7 posts before ha

Why the fuck was Smoltz talking about sleep

Not using Hader feels huge. Game 7 gonna be nuts

verducci had the most insightful comment of the game in like 30 seconds of total airtime

What did insightfully say?

Game 7s gonna be good

Any sox fans btw? Haha

What did he insightfully say
xp

Where did you find that, Tim? Nothing on Baseball Reference, unless I'm missing it

Yeah, Baseball Reference in his postseason game logs. He threw a total of 368 pitches in that series.

verducci noted that the brewers were teeing off on ryu’s first-pitch curveballs— moustakas had one of them, maybe kratz too? then he mentioned that ryu had thrown 81 first-pitch curves all season and allowed one hit on them, and wondered if ryu were somehow tipping it

At the risk of ushering in the Craig Counsell, Tactical Genius Era, I'll be rooting for the Brewers tonight. I realize that past Kershaw, Puig, and maybe Jensen, the Dodgers don't interest me much. I defend Bellinger on the Aaron Judge thread, but whenever I actually watch him, I like him better as a long-distance matrix of numbers--he's not that impressive up close. I liked Machado last week, but I want to do my part to make the world a better place, so I don't like him anymore, and anyway, he's just passing through. The Brewers are a great story, with lots of colourful players. With Godzilla in the wings on full rest, if the Brewers can get any kind of a decent start tonight, something like Miley yesterday, they oughta win. (I conked out for the first few innings last night, woke up for Knebel. Letting him hit was pretty gutsy.)

Any sox fans btw? Haha

I'll be rooting for Boston in the WS. I know, they've won too many times. But I like their players a lot, almost without exception. Cora, too--love that he stuck with Price for Game 6 (past a point where I would've--I would have had him out of there after 4).

I'm a Sox fan in general (Mitch Moreland is a hometown hero*), though I'll be rooting MIL if they win tonight.

*who I like even more because he's never come back here for Christmas parades and crap like that to pretend he remembers the town with fondness

You Can Home Again (I Just Ain't Goin' Anywhere Near There)

over/under on how many times the michigan-michigan state football game is mentioned tonight?

http://images.performgroup.com/di/library/sporting_news/63/b9/kirk-gibson-steve-garvey-michigan-state-ftrjpg_uo993ue6d4e41lefwjqtvcphe.jpg?t=2140713548&w=960&quality=70

Joe Buck wd always rather be at a football game

Would be nice if someone made a viral 60-minute supercut of Buck vacantly barking "Good play" and/or "Good pitch" that makes Fox realize they should "go in another direction."

Sorry, frogbs--I put the curse on re Bellinger.

need a feed

plz dont give me the name of an app, thats like giving me a formula for rocket fuel

i'm using this one

(one of those where you have to find and click the two tiny X's before hitting the big play button)

thx -- those are the only kind i use

i meant to predict that both starting pitchers wd be gone by the 4th (obviously the way to bet these days)

Morbs

I got you dude

MLB streams reddit

HD feed there

Wld u lookit that double play

Clem can ya curse Aguilar for me thanks

Hader seems a bit shaken

I think I would have let Crispin Glover hit--he's untouchable out there.

Didn't seem like that tough a decision--you've got to take him out. (Walking Yelich would have been crazy.)

omg what a grab

Beauty

That was some catch.

Wow.

Curious as to how Kershaw will figure in.

They can’t all be Puigs

yow

That’s how it’s done SON

RIP

Jeffress nooooo

boycotting Bose forever based on twee commercial

I guess Jansen comes back out for the eighth and Kershaw pitches the ninth?

Do i hear anti-twee sentiments in a baseball thread?

Unless really necessary, I'd try to let Jansen finish up.

Did you guys know that Jansen used to be a catcher?

lol Puig's pose when he got announced safe.

blergh

LET’S GO DODGERS

He only throws in the low 90's, but this Kershaw kid might have a future as a closer in the bigs. This wasn't a save situation though, so we can't really be sure that he has that closer mentality until he pitches in a close game.

Damn. Well, nice season anyway, Brewers.

1916 WS rematch

I guess the consolation is we probably wouldve gotten our assets handed to us intjenwlrld seroeis

:D

fireworks in la rn

The moment when the #Dodgers NLCS win was announced to the @Lakers crowd... #GoDodgers #WorldSeries pic.twitter.com/xnuz0id7eQ

— ESPNLosAngeles (@ESPNLosAngeles) October 21, 2018

Is this what I'm seeing in that clip?

(final score of G7 flashes on scoreboard)

Lakers fans: (indifference)

(shots of the final out and the Dodgers celebrating on the field)

Lakers fans: (a smattering of mild applause)

(shots of Magic Johnson clapping)

half of Lakers fans: Magic Johnson, f yeah!!! (rapturous applause)

other half of Lakers fans (turning to their friends): Wait, which movie was that guy in again?

basketball fans are morons, esp in LA

Hard to say when in the final part of the game that was

But having been to a Lakers game, the crowd definitely gets into it once the game ends and the team has won

We got the usual inflatable thunder sticks and confetti came down and stuff

Laker fans are awesome and the vibe is dope

Morbs is just an angry old man

The AB I keep thinking about was Aguilar in the 2nd. 3-2 and he swings at a high fastball that’s like a foot out of the zone. After that there was a long single and a deep fly, Aguilar certainly would have scored and the game would be tied, at least. You wonder if they would’ve played a little looser after that. Then you got the Puig HR which doesn’t happen if they can pull off a routine double play (Bellinger is pretty fast of course), or Taylor’s amazing run-saving catch that Joc almost certainly wouldn’t have made. Just a lotta weird variance in this game. Probably why we made it so far in the first place, of course. Oh well. Was a great year.

I think I would have let Crispin Glover hit--he's untouchable out there.
― clemenza, Saturday, October 20, 2018 9:46 PM

Was he done, or could he have gone another inning? He'd thrown 31 pitches.

Brewers only got one hit in 4.1 innings off the Dodger bullpen.