hot stove 2018-19

Scott Boras, jokester (?)

https://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2018/10/yankees_in_or_out_bryce_harper_friend_responds_to.html

White Sox declined the 6-million club option for 2019 on the contract of right-hander James Shields, opting instead to exercise a https://twitter.com/scottmerkin/status/1056997331218788352-million buyout, which makes Shields a free agent. Reinstated right-hander Michael Kopech from the 60-day disabled list.

— Scott Merkin (@scottmerkin) October 29, 2018

qualifying offer is $17.9m made by friday at 5pm ET

the astros are expected to make an offer to dallas keuchel, to not make an offer to marwin gonzales, and to ~maybe~ make an offer to charlie morton

Morton would seem like a no brainer to me

stephen strasburg is 30. that has nothing to do with the hot stove, sorry.

i don't know why, but i always think of him as a whippersnapper

(to continue the derail)
when i pulled up his fangraphs page i honestly expected to see that he was 26 or 27, still. crazy that a guy with 30 WAR through age 29 seems kind of like a disappointment, but there it is

0.47 ERA in 19 post-season innings. I'm pretty sure that's a large enough sample to conclude that he's a man of great character.

Morton will be 35 next year, this is his one chance to make money as a FA and push for a 3-4 year deal.

charlie morton has had an interesting career path -- he was below replacement-level over his first nine seasons (up to age 32). but hey, if rich hill can do it . . .

crazy that a guy with 30 WAR through age 29 seems kind of like a disappointment, but there it is

yea there are a lot of things contributing to this - he's been good, but never quite lived up to that 'greatest pitching prospect in a generation' label, nor the promise of that insane first start where he struck out 14. he was injured for a year and would later get overshadowed by Scherzer. plus, y'know, the Nats whole lack of playoff success thing. I was surprised that he had such a great year in '17.

The injuries, more than anything. They cut short that first insane era of his before we really got a chance to see what he could do. And since he came back he always seems to end up pitching through some pain, or being used carefully after an injury, ending up with 130 innings. Lots of sort of lost half seasons that were actually really good, all considering

tough to stand out when your teammate is throwing all the no-hitters and winning all the cys young

sadly I predict a similar future for Ohtani

Yeah, same. That’s what was heartbreaking about his injury. I kind of assume that at some point his arm will explode and he’ll never be the same. But god dammit, just give me one full year of peak ohtani! I don’t ask for much!

trevor rosenthal to the nationals

time for the rest of the NL East to pack it in and wait out the Rosenthal era

he might be good, still! he was killing it in 2017, before his injury

btw, the contract details for adam wainwright's re-signing have an..interesting..incentive structure. it's a $2 million guarantee for 2019, then:

For games started, he’ll earn $500K upon his fifth start, $1MM upon his tenth and 15th, $1.5MM for his twentieth, and $2MM apiece for his 25th and 30th. Maxing out this run of bonuses would add $8MM of salary.
For relief appearances, Wainwright can earn $500K apiece for every fifth appearance, beginning at #35 and ending at #60. That provides an avenue to $3MM in extra money.
For games finished, Wainwright will receive $500K for the 25th and 30th game in which he records the final out and $600K for every fifth game finished beginning at #35 and ending at #55. If Wainwright serves as the Cards’ closer and meets all of those thresholds, he’d tack on another $4MM, meaning he could in total earn up to an additional $7MM in a relief capacity.

just out of curiosity has there been any history of managers intentionally making pitching decisions to avoid the team having to pay bonuses like that?

i don't know. i'm just really glad mike matheny is not the manager

can't remember specific instances, but i'm pretty sure there have been questionable situations -- feel like it's been more often to avoid vesting options than cash bonuses tho

yankees decline gritty brett gardner's option, then sign him to a gritty new $7.5m/one-year deal

pirates decline options on jung-ho kang and josh harrison

cubs pick up jose quintana's option for 2019

Price is staying in Boston. I was partly hoping he'd tell the city to go fuck itself, but obviously he's not going to get that kind of money or that kind of team anywhere else.

He could have done what Sabathia did several years ago with the Yankees -- get them to extend his deal for a couple more years at the same AAV instead of opting out. But CC had pitched much better for the Yankees than Price has so far for the Red Sox. Plus, the Yankees seem to fall for those tricks, A-Rod pulled the same deal too after his monster 2007.

The Athletics picked up Fernando Rodney’s option

do we have any ilx padres fans? they picked greg garcia up off of waivers. he's one of those anonymous guys but he's actually pretty useful utility infielder, doesn't really excel anywhere but rarely embarrasses himself, and a surprising on-base machine

cole hamels staying with the cubs for another year

isn't polyphonic a padres fan?

Reds fan site writers seem to think getting new pitching coach Derek Johnson from the Brewers is a bit of a coup.

timellison is a Padres fan.

sounds like kershaw and the dodgers will get something done

also

Faced with market constraints, the Indians will listen to trade offers for some of their veteran players this winter, according to sources. Kluber, Carrasco, Encarnacion, Gomes, etc. Lindor, Ramirez will definitely be held.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) November 2, 2018

i was kind of surprised they'd dangle Kluber, i thought the deal was very team-friendly, but i see they backloaded it and he's slated to earn 17 million next season (team options for 17.5 and 18 in 2020-21.)

greg garcia

greg ... welcome to the resistance

charlie morton was *not* qualifyingly offered

I became a bit of a Padres fan after having a great first-time visit to SD, which included visiting the (somewhat) hidden tiki bar behind Petco Park. Also, Ted Leitner is a pretty entertaining radio play-by-play guy.

Chris Woodward set to be named #Rangers manager, source confirms @BNightengale report. @MLB @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 3, 2018

?

banister got jobbed, but that's the way it goes

you'd think the reds might at least offer jim riggleman some sinecure but nah

they picked greg garcia up off of waivers. he's one of those anonymous guys but he's actually pretty useful utility infielder, doesn't really excel anywhere but rarely embarrasses himself, and a surprising on-base machine

Glad to hear this. Pads had Freddy Galvis on a one-year deal this past year - so he's now a free agent - and have Tatis Jr. in the system who will turn 20 in January and spent most of the past year in AA.

Tatis slash line for San Antonio in 394 PA - .286/.355/.507

Luis Urias seems like he'll get a big shot to be the starting second baseman and they've got Wil Myers at third now.

At meetings this week, @MLB GMs expected to consider eliminating trade waivers and moving to a uniform trade deadline, possibly in mid-August. Change would require union approval. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 5, 2018

#SFGiants have offered Farhan Zaidi position as president of baseball operations, source confirms. Decision is expected within 24 hours. @MLBNetwork @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 6, 2018

icymi, TJ for Lance McCullers

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/lance-mccullers-will-be-missing-the-2019-season/

Scott Boras on Bryce Harper: “Certainly Harper’s bazaar has begun. It’s fashionable. It’s historical. It’s elite. Global certainly. And certainly it has inspirations that deal with great shoes and great hair.”

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 7, 2018

@Pirates
ANNOUNCED: The Pirates have signed free agent infielder Jung Ho Kang to a one-year contract for the 2019 season.

smgdh

rays-mariners trade

Rays get:

Mike Zunino
Guillermo Heredia
Michael Plassmeyer

Mariners get:

Mallex Smith
Jake Fraley

feel like the mariners are 'rebuilding' simply because dipoto is addicted to trading

Team Willing to Entertain Trade Offers for Player Season is my favorite season

As great as he is, I can definitely see where Cleveland might want to trade Kluber. Clevinger and Bauer are both 27; Carrasco's 31. Bieber's 23--he didn't pitch especially well, but his K/BB ratio suggests better things ahead. Their bullpen was mostly lousy, and they finished seven games under their Pythagorean last year. I would think a good return on Kluber, maybe some bullpen help and a starting outfieder, could put them back in 100-win range.

are there rumours about Kluber?
i don't think they need to do much in the offseason. a guy like Pollack would be a great fit in their outfield and they sign a new closer and lefty specialist and they're as good as new imho.

kluber is on an absurdly team-friendly deal, but his salary jumps from $10m to $17m next year and cleveland is a small market and larry dolan can barely scrape two dimes together etc. etc.

(xpost) There seem to be, yes.

http://www.si.com/mlb/2018/11/09/corey-kluber-paul-goldschmidt-madison-bumgarner-trade-candidates
http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25224490/buster-mlb-buzz-corey-kluber-blockbuster-teams-the-mix
http://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/mlb/indians/5-reasons-why-the-cleveland-indians-should-consider-trading-corey-kluber-this-offseason/95-612264504

tot missed Chris Woodward hiring

another srsly hot skipper imho

Woodward?!

In this next chapter- looking ahead. #OurColores pic.twitter.com/v9DIrqp94o

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) November 15, 2018

FanGraphs editor Carson Cistulli joins the Toronto FO

One veteran market reader today predicted a larger-than-usual number of non-tenders at the end of this month. With free agent volume so high, adding more players to the market could depress prices even more and drive players to accept what in the past would've been subpar deals.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 16, 2018

Free the MLBPA

let's get stoopid

If anyone had any doubt about Philadelphia Phillies owner John Middleton’s intentions this winter, he made it abundantly clear before leaving the Major League Baseball owners’ meetings.

“We’re going into this expecting to spend money,’’ Middleton told USA TODAY Sports. “And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it.’’

Middleton laughed, then said without smiling: “We just prefer not to be completely stupid."

Gritty has infected the city

kurt suzuki to the nationals for two years

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/astros-and-jays-both-win-diaz-thornton-deal/

james paxton to yankees

#Padres have discussed a trade with #Mariners in which they would acquire SS Jean Segura and RHP Mike Leake for OF Wil Myers, sources tell The Athletic. Leake would need to waive his no-trade clause for deal to occur, and also is weighing other potential options, one source says.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 20, 2018

Mike Leake says please god yes

I somehow missed the Paxton news til now

Mets release Jenrry Mejia

CJ Cron dfa'd

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/c-j-cron-got-dickersoned/

it's funny how 2 WAR 1B/DH types are a dime a dozen but the pirates haven't had a first baseman do better than that since 1999

legendary tiger/point park university product DON KELLY is the astros' new first-base coach

Mets are shopping Thor around?! i feel like it's a bit premature to commit to a rebuild (if that's what's going on)

brian mccann back to the barves

i'd missed the Thor rumors til now, a blessing of the holiday

the aforementioned cj cron to the twins

phillies 'have discussed' paul goldschmidt with arizona as part of their plan to run out a lineup of first basemen

#Braves showing strong interest in free-agent 3B Josh Donaldson, sources tell The Athletic. Close to finalizing one-year deal, per @StevePhillipsGM.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 26, 2018

wau donaldson gets $23m for one year

Can't wait to hear how his calf responds.

brian mccann staying with the braves

Even on a one-year deal, I never thought Donaldson would get that much.

First and foremost, the Braves are getting a player with considerable offensive ability. Donaldson posted an .801 OPS last year, when shoulder and calf injuries limited him to 52 games, but there’s reason to believe he can bounce back offensively. The typically conservative Steamer projections at FanGraphs forecast a .257/.366/.485 batting line with 27 home runs and 4.6 wins above replacement for Donaldson in 2019.

That projection sounds to me like they're splitting the difference. I'd be more inclined to project either/or--if Donaldson's healthy, he's back to the 6.0-7.0 range (i.e., some decline from his peak, not much), if he's not, more of last year.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/braves-donaldson-deal-upside-another-big-win-anthopoulos/

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a one year deal over 20 million before

it is the largest-ever one-year deal for a free-agent position player, i'm told

Mets bench coach: Jim Riggleman

lonnie chisenhall to the pirates, one year/$2.75m

i don't think this guy has been mentioned here

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/seibu-lions-to-post-yusei-kikuchi-in-early-december.html

the Red Sox are said to be “lukewarm” on the lefty...

They've been burned by the Seibu Lions before!

should be quote not bold there, whoops.

tigers nearing a one-year deal with the charred remains of matt moore

that guy was supposed to be the proto-blake snell, which *really* didn't happen. someone's always willing to take a flier on a lefty tho

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DtCCnSmWsAAouX2.jpg:small

no idea, why another aging star

that's...interesting

hm

cano is a good bet to be productive for another 2 years or so, but i'd guess that diaz and maybe smith would provide more value overall? paying cano $24M a year through his age 40 season, though, yikes

i can't see the mets taking on cano's salary (he has five years/$120m remaining), and the deal makes no sense for the mariners unless they do

Introducing the manager of your 2019 Long Island Ducks: Wally Backman!

The 1986 World Series Champion brings 14 years of @MLB playing experience and a 20-year managerial career in professional baseball to the club. Please join us in welcoming Wally!

📰: https://t.co/snM2ju7wR0 pic.twitter.com/0LwzUsNSXW

— Long Island Ducks (@LIDucks) November 28, 2018

Source: Two former first-round picks are among the #Mets prospects under discussion in talks with #Mariners for Cano-Diaz: OF Jarred Kelenic, 6th overall in 2018, and RHP Justin Dunn, 19th overall in ‘16. ”Significant momentum” in talks, per @JeffPassan.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 29, 2018

Chili Davis as Mets hitting coach it seems

“I’m excited to be back with Alex and a lot of the training staff with the Toronto Blue Jays because they know me and they know how to keep me on the field,” Donaldson said at his introductory press conference at SunTrust Park. “And that’s the biggest part.”

I'm rooting for Donaldson to have a great season, but give me a break--he's blaming the team for last year?

http://torontosun.com/sports/baseball/mlb/unveiled-in-atlanta-ex-blue-jay-josh-donaldson-takes-shot-at-former-team?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1543429365

angels have acquired tommy la stella for $/ptbnl; wonder if he'll retire

In the days before his time with the Jays ended, Donaldson pointedly insisted that he felt his injury struggles in 2018 came in large part because he was at odds with the methods of the Jays medical staff and high performance department.

I want details.

man i like tommy la stella

(xpost) Don't have any; I know there was friction. Having thought about it, I'll give Donaldson this--the team has seemed unable to solve recurring blister problems with both Sanchez and Stroman. You would think that would be pretty basic.

I guess I mean details from beat writers on what kind of smart sports medicine as well as pissing-on-hands quackery goes on in training rooms, and how it varies from team to team. Whenever I've gone to games it's been interesting how some players stroll around the field and throw a few balls, and some players go in for 30 minutes of intense stretching and being rolfed by an assistant.

So how long until the Cardinal front office dampens the dreams of some Reds fans who think they might actually have a chance of signing Dallas Keuchel. That guy is from Arkansas, I would figure good chance ole' Dallas might have grew up a St. Louis fan.

He went to college in Arkansas but he's from 2 hours west in Tulsa, OK, not sure if that changes affiliations?

Mariners send Alex Colomé to White Sox for Omar Narváez

reds are non-tendering billy hamilton

who needs a .290 obp burner?

terrance gore 2.0

hamilton kills the pirates tho -- only .280/.327/.360, but 54 runs and 56 SB (8 CS) in 78 games

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/chicago-cubs-addison-russell-tender-contract-theo-epstein-501656801.html

ugh

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/5/4/0/139598540/072915_nym_flores_eyes_med_z0aylbg3.gif

non-tendered ;_;

I've thought about where Billy Hamilton could fit in. I think for the huge bat/big money teams, Hamilton is a potentially great super sub type. The guy can cover just huge amounts of ground in CF. Some people think the best way to use him might be to have him come in PR for a hitter on base, then switch to defensive replacement. Even though he hasn't been quite as successful at stealing bases, the guy can score first to home on really minimal hits at times.

Don't know their roster, but I could see Hamilton having some value for the Colorado Rockies. Blackmond I believe is supposed to be kind out of place playing center field and Hamilton could go run and get some outs playing in that huge yard.

Yan Gomes is being acquired by the #Nats. Gives them a nice catching combo with Suzuki. Minor League RF Daniel Johnson going the other way to #Indians . (sorry if you saw earlier that mentioned Michael Taylor; he's not involved)

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 30, 2018

This is a pretty crazy deal brewing between the Mets and Mariners.

So this is a chips in the middle trade (they are giving away two of their top 10 prospects if I understand correctly) but they are also shopping a trade with Noah?

I doubt the Noah thing is going to happen now after this move; unless they deal him for established mlb talent at some other position.

after cano deal is wrapped up, word on the street from my man ken rosenthal is that mariners are looking to send jean segura to phillies, perhaps for JP Crawford

Seeing they might send Santana along too - which seems like an insane thing for the Mariners to agree to. Crawford isn’t going to be enough on his own (nor does adding Santana imho).

What happened between Segura and Gordon btw? I’ve seen it mentioned Ina few places but never explained.

This is a pretty crazy deal brewing between the Mets and Mariners.

Is it tho? The EW podcast went over it extensively the other day and wound up at "Yep, yet another trade that makes sense for both teams."

Ya, true. Tho when I first read about it, there were more prospects and money reportedly involved.

This deal for Santana, however...

i assumed there was probably almost nothing left on the santana contract but then i looked and uhhh that's... well actually the last season is a team option so it's only $40m/2y. still yikes

i guess i get to watch my team do the whole fun tear down/build up now, which is... well. i hope kyle seager gets out, he deserves slightly better than this. did mallex not go in the cano deal after all? i guess that's cool. poor dee gordon, finally gets out of miami...

santana is overpaid, but not by *that* much. you could do a lot worse than 25 homers and a ton of walks for $20m. the two years of jay bruce at $14m each seems riper for disaster -- he's been worth 2.6 bWAR over the past five seasons, and all of that was in 2017

#STLCards and #DBacks have discussed a trade that would send Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis, source confirms @dgoold report. @MLB @MLBNetwork

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) December 4, 2018

i guess if they get a genuine youth movement going, all of that money is available again in 2021 is the idea?

corbin to the nationals, six years/unknown $

seeing $140 million.

he had a great year, but it also seems like quite an outlier -- K/9IP jumping from 8 to 11, etc.

the projections are solid enough, tho: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-get-another-ace-in-monster-deal-with-patrick-corbin

By May/June fantasy *ahem* "experts" were encouraging owners to sell high on Corbin due to some of his peripherals (pls don't ask) which had showed he was luckier than average.

i don't see him making those projections.

it kind of bothers me that patrick corbin will make more in his career than jacob degrom will (not that they won't both be fine, of course). timing is everything

marlins like rosario, nimmo and/or conforto in Realmuto talks. talks are real, but mets seem resistant on rosario

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 5, 2018

mets and marlins haggling over a once hyped prospect who has never been good, sure why not

it kind of bothers me that patrick corbin will make more in his career than jacob degrom will (not that they won't both be fine, of course). timing is everything

― mookieproof, Wednesday, December 5, 2018 11:58 AM (twenty-six minutes ago) Bookmark

well his agent is the mets GM now so he might just get that payday after all

Stlcards will be getting Goldy

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 5, 2018

between this and the pirates' signing of lonnie chisenhall, the NL central arms race has really escalated

The #STLCards have acquired six-time NL All-Star 1B Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for C Carson Kelly, RHP Luke Weaver, INF Andy Young and the club's Compensation Round B selection in the 2019 MLB Draft. #TimeToFly pic.twitter.com/65SThIrDli

— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) December 5, 2018

damn, i like weaver a lot. tough price.

"i read it first on ILB"

wow!

kind of excited to have a "star" on the team for the first time in a while, even though there have been flashes of brilliance with matt carpenter and tommy pham recently.

andy young won't be talked about much, maybe, but i was excited about him. he shot up all the internal prospect lists last year, a 24 year old 2B who has hit with power at every level so far.

it was either going to be carson kelly or andrew knizner, and although i've been a supporter of getting kelly more playing time the last year or so (backups to molina don't play), knizner has more upside. kelly's upside is average to meh offensively, .250/.350/.400 in a good year, with solid defense. a valuable catcher! but kelly's offensive ceiling is more like knizner's floor, and his defense is decent, too.

weaver might be good or might be a #4 starter. it was hard to tell, based off of the first two seasons.

imo arizona did pretty well considering goldy only has one year left, but st. louis didn't need any of those guys (and weaver was pretty bad last year)

also they're apparently confident they can re-sign goldy, since everyone who comes to STL falls in love with it and the bfib (which might be true)

if they don't resign him at least they'll get an extra draft pick (right?)

assuming they issue a QO

Goldsmith had such an incredibly streaky year in '18... not sure if that was symptomatic of something negative or what.

Immediate reaction from rival exec on #DBacks’ return for Goldschmidt: “A boatload” (Only he didn’t say boat). Five years control on Weaver, six on Kelly, plus pick in 70 to 75 range; Young fringy. #STLCards will call it a win, too. Kept Dakota Hudson, Kelly blocked by Yadi.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 5, 2018

Front office exec on the Cards-D'Backs trade: It's just a fair trade all the way around. Makes sense for both teams. Cardinals get better for 2019. D-Backs get a solid (but not spectacular) return.

— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) December 5, 2018

PG 2018

home: 238/.363/.420
away: .339/.415/.638

May: .144/.252/.278

vs Career .943 OPS in May.

Basically getting him out of the nu-humidor and into Busch could be the answer:

Career @ Busch:
.302/.402/.488

PG BABIP in may: .186 (up around .400 the rest of the year)

PG from june 1 forward: .330/.420/.602; 1.022 ops was fourth in MLB behind trout, yelich and jd martinez

not too worried about him

only stole seven bases last year tho

Eovaldi back with the BoSox for four years, $67.5MM.

Jesus

TINSTAAPP

That sure is a lot of money for a good postseason (I can't see much else in his career that's very distinguished).

i thought the goldy trade was fair for both sides. it's possible kelly never really hits and weaver is just a 3/4 starter, but there's enough upside that i think you'd feel pretty good getting that for just one year of goldy.

weaver is projected for 2 WAR next year... if you think he's closer to his rookie season than last season maybe that creeps up to 3 or even 3.5 if he really figures it out. goldy has been a consistent 5 WAR player... the trade might not even look that bad for the d backs just off next year alone.

Yankees President Randy Levine is among the names being mentioned for White House Chief of Staff, per @MSNBC

— Adam Zagoria (@AdamZagoria) December 10, 2018

the hottest stove

please god he will do less damage there

billy hamilton to the royals

sunday night baseball will start at 7 ET next year

i expect Goldschmidt to start winning All-Star elections at 1B, as Redbird Nation will vote often for such a towering, boring hunk of white manmeat.

i believe that d-bag nation voted him into the all-star game the past 6 years, as well

Freddie Freeman last year, right?

Goldy has 6 selections, but not sure how may times he won the vote (at least twice)

pirates shed salary -- shocking, i know -- by sending ivan nova to the white sox

pirates will apparently fill that hole in their staff by signing jordan lyles, a right-hander with a career WAR of -3.3

Sources: Phillies are in agreement with Andrew McCutchen, pending a physical.

— Matt Gelb (@MattGelb) December 11, 2018

blue jays have released tulo

am surprised they pulled the trigger on doing that! essentially paying 38 million to free up a roster spot.

I may regret these words, but bargain of the year.

lol

http://www.facebook.com/BlueJays/photos/a.381692688771/10156242608293772/?type=3&theater

I know the club's happy to get rid of him, but they don't to actually thank him for leaving--that's a little much.

tbf i saw a quote from tulo's agent being grateful -- he said shapiro et al were very professional about everything and that it's much better for his client to be cut loose now than at the end of spring training or something

i mean it's kind of insulting, but he still gets paid, and will have more fun playing somewhere where he's wanted (assuming he can ever stay healthy)

pirates will apparently fill that hole in their staff by signing jordan lyles, a right-hander with a career WAR of -3.3

Lyles had some good games last year. Had a perfect game going against Colorado through 7.1 in May.

happ back to the yankees

Brandon Hyde, Orioles manager

last week his name was Jekyll

charlie morton to tampa, two years/$30m

nice to see from tampa

yeah i don't think they've ever had a $15m/yr player before.

also that seems like an extremely team-friendly deal for a guy projected to put up 3+ WAR next year (only marginally less than patrick corbin's projection). that no reputed contenders offered something better seems like a bad sign

the reds and nationals pulling off the rare tanner-for-tanner trade

lance lynn to rangers, $30 million/3 years

edwin encarnacion to seattle for carlos santana

not entirely sure i see the point

7M dollar difference afaict

all else equal, i'd much rather have santana. but i don't know either system's prospect/depth situation

they each have a 3 year, $60 million contract (2017-19 for encarnacion, 2018-20 for santana), with a one year team option that seems unlikely to be exercised at the end (25.5M for encarnacion, 17.5M for santana)

oh, edwing's 2020 is a team option while santana's is guaranteed, so that makes sense for seattle

wait, there's more to it. it's a three-team deal, with the rays

yandy diaz goes from indians to rays
jake bauers from rays to indians
encarnacion from indians to mariners
santana from mariners to indians

i think?

mariners send high five to rays
rays wave back to mariners

i don't understand how that's a three-team trade, rather than just the indians making two different trades at the same time, but ken rosenthal says it's true so

when was the last three-team trade that did not involve the rays

@CoreyBrockMLB
Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto, who was out sick Wednesday, was taken to a nearby hospital as a precaution.

@JeffPassan
Today’s three-way trade with the Mariners, Indians and Rays is the first from-a-hospital Winter Meetings deal since 2006, when the inimitable Jim Hendry locked in Ted Lilly’s four-year, $40M free agent contract while on a gurney being wheeled in to the OR to have an angioplasty.

am i the only one who thinks dipoto is a walking galaxybrain

Joe Kelly to Dodgers for 3 years

Jeurys Familia back to Mets for same

is JK confirmed?

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25523201/joe-kelly-agrees-deal-los-angeles-dodgers

The San Diego Padres have reached an agreement with free-agent second baseman Ian Kinsler on a two-year, $8 million deal, according to multiple reports Friday.

Yonder to Chisox

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25536970/yonder-alonso-cleveland-indians-traded-chicago-white-sox

until today, i didn't realize that the cardinals will be paying matt holliday $1.4M per year through 2029. i also didn't realize they're paying pujols $1.2M per year through 2029.

That will be team #6 for Alonso in 9 seasons. He has moved around quite a bit.

Matt Adams to Nats

supposedly the rockies just made (like last week) their final payment to mike hampton, who last played for them in 2002

Mets paying Bobby Bonilla through 2035 FTW.

wilson ramos to mets for 2 years

was hoping for Grandal, but at least they didn't overpay for Realmuto

Matt Adams to Nats

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Sunday, December 16, 2018 2:41 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i was like "uh ok is this even news" until i remembered that the phillies, cards, and nats are not all, in fact, the same team, but distinct National League teams with the same colors. i will never not mix these three teams up until i die and i hate it when someone moves from one of them to the other because i get confused

i had completely forgotten who Wilson Ramos last played for

i know he was with the rays at some point before/after/during??? his stint with the Phardinationals

Matt Adams, I have never known what team he’s on at any given moment. Even when he’s been on my fantasy squad.

no matter what team he's officially on, matt adams is always a cardinal

this is true

cubs are close to nabbing dirty dan

uh

The Houston Astros have agreed to a two-year, $32 million contract with outfielder Michael Brantley, according to multiple reports.

Matt Harvey’s Angels deal for the 11M guarantee has the 3M incentives based on games started between 15 and 26 gs. @Feinsand 1st with agreement

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 19, 2018

Terrance Gore back to KC for one year

The Nationals have agreed to a deal with right-hander Anibal Sanchez, I’m told.

— Anthony Fenech (@anthonyfenech) December 20, 2018

looks like the cardinals will likely get andrew miller, who will definitely bounce back to 2017 form and won't get injured in early may

He's a year removed from his two big years, but I figure Daniel Murphy will do a passable Rogers Hornsby imitation in Colorado anyway.

puig your red

Wow ! Must have a real inclination Harper is willing to sign

Lol Reds

for those who don't get notifications, ie me

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25589407/los-angeles-dodgers-trade-matt-kemp-yasiel-puig-alex-wood-cincinnati-reds

i presume the dodgers aren’t actually going to let homer bailey pitch for them

i was going to call it the Homer Bailey trade

This trade is about clearing cap space and room on the forty man roster and literally nothing else, right?

yeah it seems that way

Some people think this is trade one and a second trade is brewing with Cleveland perhaps for Corey Kluber.

Reds still will need to get 'someone' that can play CF or at least someone that can platoon with Scott Schebler, unless he is dealt.

Reds hitting coach Turner Ward is supposed to be fairly tight with Puig and knows Kemp from working with them in LA.

I think Puig could make some serious cash playing in Great American for a year (even for a single year). Worked out ok for Kevin Mitchell and Sin-shoo Choo.

weird hot stove is the new normal hot stove

look at everyone who's still unsigned: https://www.fangraphs.com/tools/free-agent-tracker

didn't they establish some sort of training camp for unsigned players last year, so they could work out during spring training? might need to make that a permanent thing i guess (the island of misfit toys)

The Island of Dr. Boras.

Rays analyst promoted to uniformed coach

https://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/2018/12/05/so-what-will-rays-new-process-and-analytics-coach-do/

Clayton Richard and cash considerations are heading to Toronto in a trade with the San Diego Padres that has minor league OF Connor Panas going to San Diego.

To clear a roster spot for Clayton Richard, the Blue Jays designated Oliver Drake for assignment, leaving him to search for his seventh team since May.

whoa, i missed that Kikuchi signed with the Mariners. kind of a complicated deal:

TODAY: Kikuchi will earn $43MM over the first three years of the contract, Heyman reports (Twitter link). At that point, the Mariners can then choose to extend Kikuchi for $66MM over the 2022-25 seasons, which would make the deal a seven-year, $109MM contract overall. If the M’s don’t exercise this four-year extension, Kikuchi then can opt to exercise a player option for 2022 that would pay him $13MM.

YESTERDAY, 10:34 pm: The deal is for three years plus a player option for 2022, per Heyman (via Twitter). The Mariners have the unique option of replacing the player option with an additional four year guarantee, thus securing seven years of team control for Seattle. Theoretically, the partnership could end after three years should both the Mariners and Kikuchi decline their options.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/01/mariners-appear-nearing-deal-free-agent-yusei-kikuchi-rumors.html

i like Kikuchi because his last name (菊池) translates very poetically to "chrysanthemum pond".

i did not know that
that's awesome!

minor league OF Connor Panas going to San Diego

curious about how this guy ended up in the deal, and if it's as completely random as it seems

how do you mean?

i'm full of cough syrup, bored and hungover, so i'll try to answer... i've been keeping an eye on him because he's a canuck in my teams' farm system, and he's shown some potential - tho he had a rough 2018 for sure. he's shown some discipline and power and his 2017 gave me high hopes (but now that i'm checking he was a good clip above the average age for high A).
he's probably the best fringe prospect they could have hoped for really, in return for a negative-win pitcher.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/report-yankees-agree-deal-former-blue-jay-troy-tulowitzki/

If there's a situation where I end up regretting all the mean things I've said about him, this would be readymade...

Ya, I find this somewhat irksome.

clayton richard is terrible and had already been dfa'd, so the padres had no leverage to extract anything from toronto. that they got the jays to pay half of his $3m salary for 2019 was a small victory. richard is at least left-handed and might conceivably have some use as a loogy or mop-up dude at $1.5m, so it's a low-risk proposition for the jays.

none of that has anything to do with panas, a corner outfielder who turns 26 next month and was bad in his lone season above A ball. the deal was about the padres saving $1.5m, so why was *this* non-prospect included? was a minor leaguer included to make the cash sale of richard more palatable to the public? are the padres short of double-a corner outfielders, or do the jays have a glut? do the padres really have a scouting report on panas and think they can make something of him? the jays do have a tendency to, other things being equal, take fliers on canadian players, so why trade away this one?

anyway i was just curious, and also hopped up on cough syrup

Lucroy to Angels for a year

Lucroy's such an odd player, a lot of his value as a catcher was tied up into his pitch framing skills which went from league-leading to genuinely awful in the span of only a couple of years. I'm not sure what happened to him. But 3.6m for 1 year seems like a good bet.

How does that skill even decline?!

could be noise

i think that's supposedly happened to other catchers too (maybe yadi?) and i don't understand it either

david robertson to the phillies, two years/$21m plus club option year

The Mets signed pitcher Arquimedes Caminero and outfielder Rymer Liriano to minor league deals.

"We focus on the Yankees and Cubs, the Phillies and Dodgers, but a team like the Pirates can not only sign Manny Machado without risking a loss, they are positioned to get more from the signing, based on the marginal wins he would add, than almost any other team. It’s teams like the Pirates refusing to take themselves seriously that is grating. The 2019 Marlins shouldn’t be spending money. The 2019 Royals shouldn’t be spending money. The 2019 Pirates should. That they’re just accepting 81 wins and fat checks should be more an embarrassment to MLB, and frankly to Bob Nutting, than it is."

joe sheehan otm

Mark Loretta, new Cubs bench coach

This was pretty fun.

'the team would be pretty gritty'

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-managers-trash-talk-spot-mvp-baseball-2005-lineup-002104365.html

.@Mets acquire OF Keon Broxton from @Brewers for RHPs Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill and INF Felix Valerio.

— MLBRosterMoves (@MLBRosterMoves) January 5, 2019

anyone know if those guys they gave up are any good?

NYY sign Zach Britton 39/3

The busy Mets acquired infielder J.D. Davis and Minor League infielder Cody Bohanek from the Astros on Sunday. Houston received Minor League outfielder Ross Adolph, infielder Luis Santana and catcher Scott Manea in return.

Looking those guys up, I'm guessing Davis was out of options and Houston is pretty packed where this guy could play. Davis has hit for some power in the minor leagues.

kelvin herrera to the white sox 2/$18m

Mets also sent Kevin Plawecki to Cleveland

https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-kevin-plawecki-j-d-davis-1.25616997

BREAKING: MLB Sees Record Revenues Of $10.3 Billion For 2018 via @ForbesSports https://t.co/BGHBiUoqoY

— Maury Brown (@BizballMaury) January 7, 2019

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/1/8/18173625/free-agency-slow-signing-pace-manny-machado-bryce-harper

the dilemma of teams’ bottom lines being divorced from their on-field results

indeed

Jonny Gomes is Arizona's new "outfield and baserunning coordinator"

as pointed out on the EW podcast, he was good at neither baserunning nor OF defense

former diamondbacks great shelby miller to the rangers

Tell AT&T Park goodbye, Giants fans.

Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford and their mates henceforth will play ball at Oracle Park.

The Giants on Thursday will announce a 20-year agreement with the Redwood City technology company to affix its name to their waterfront ballpark in San Francisco.

#Brewers in agreement with free-agent catcher Yasmani Grandal on a one-year contract, sources tell The Athletic.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 10, 2019

nice pick up for the Brewers, who will have the best backup catcher in the league sitting behind Erik Kratz

nationals 'close' on brian dozier

really jealous of the brewers' signings over the past two offseasons

yeah. they're doing things pirate fans can only dream of

jed lowrie to the mets?!?!?!?!

i mean how many second basemen does one team need

the mets new GM just signing all his old over the hill clients >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

well, last year it was all first basemen

(phaps Cano will play first some)

i don't hate the mets signing him -- he's old, but put up over 8 WAR over the last two seasons, and he'll be worth the money if he does a third of that -- but it seems an odd use of resources

i do find it amazing that the many teams who actually need second basemen wouldn't offer more than that. well, actually not that amazing because the whole system is obviously broken

lowrie was good last year but i'm just naturally suspicious of a GM whose big ideas are to go after his own clients. also it's the mets... there's no way them signing a 34 year old FA turns out well.

It's a bit of a head-scratcher, considering what they really could use right now is another prominent reliever, but he's a quality (albeit older) player at a good price that gives more depth to the infield. There is no such thing as too much depth when you talk about the Mets lately.

Moose Betts has 20M settlement with Red Sox

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 11, 2019

dj lemahieu to the yankees

all these nym/nyy second basemen should live together on the ues, they can call it keystone house

j0rdan, it's TWO Brodie clients, you cynic.

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2019/01/11/arbitration-deadline-could-mean-more-than-usual/

Last fall, however, Ken Rosenthal reported something that got very little notice at the time: the players’ union believes that all 30 teams will take a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration this winter.

Jaffe sez wait n' see on the Mets

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jed-lowrie-joins-mets-overcrowded-infield/

a's have avoided arbitration with five of six, marlins agreed to deals with all five of their arb-eligible players, bunch of other big names have agreed to terms today, so that xp might be premature

treasured canadian russell martin dealt to the dodgers

"...returns...", ya mean.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2019/01/11/economic-data-shows-mlb-spent-less-on-player-salaries-compared-to-revenues-in-2018/#9cb209c39d79

I’m a little surprised how much $$$ the Jays are sending along with Russ.

white sox sign jon jay

btw, fuck off deadspin

https://deadspin.com/white-sox-sign-shitty-player-1831656270

better deadspin

https://deadspin.com/baseball-doesnt-need-collusion-to-turn-off-the-hot-stov-1831644811

I have declared for the NFL Draft.

— Kyler Murray (@TheKylerMurray) January 14, 2019

.@MLBNetwork Melvin Upton announces he will be officially known as B.J. Upton, once again.

— sboeck (@scott_boeck) January 15, 2019

lol

it's Barbara Hershey/Seagull all over again

apparently machado's single offer thus far is seven years/$170m from the white sox

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DxDPat_VYAET95A.jpg:small

oof

Someone should buy low on the total fucking asshole

i'd be surprised if that was the only one. would also love it if that was indeed the best he has tho.

there are several teams (royals and pirates are two of them) who could give machado that deal and still be under their 2018 payroll

The Orioles are another, which would certainly be the maximally LOL outcome

hear that the rumor of a chisox 175M offer for 7 years for manny machado is not correct. am told it is "way off," though not sure exactly how off. I'd say offer has to be higher and almost surely begins with a 2.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 16, 2019

buster olney lied to me?

tall person adam ottavino to the yankees, 3 years/$27m

Ad-am otta-vino, honey

What if they made the whole plane out of relief pitchers.

— Jon Schwartz (@jonlschwartz1) January 17, 2019

will they let him wear zero? i'm guessing no

Beloved former Met Wilmer Flores signed a one-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

That doesn’t mean anything anymore... apparently 😉 https://t.co/EJ8HtE7s0D

— Dallas Keuchel (@kidkeuchy) January 17, 2019

https://www.mlb.com/news/angels-reportedly-agree-with-closer-cody-allen/c-302862698

does anyone have anything interesting to say about free agency, the slowness of the last few offseasons, how it is or is not working anymore for players vs owners, recent bargaining agreements or rule changes, money, power, free will, god, etc?

i know all of these things are related but i don't follow the business side of the game too closely

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/1/14/18181665/mlb-mlbpa-player-power-labor-strike-machado-harper-murray

I thought that was a pretty good superficial summary though it might not be new info for you

imo the main issue is that a team's financial success has ever less to do with its on-field success, so there's ever less incentive to spend on good players

2. the types of people who own teams are really insanely greedy. i mean george steinbrenner was a dick, but he wanted to win and was willing to spend money accordingly; with mike ilitch dead i'm not sure there's anyone left who really cares about winning more than saving .01% of their total net worth

3. the statistical revolution has made ownership much more efficient about how it spends and the player salary structure has not kept pace -- everyone now knows that players peak at 27-28 but most don't hit free agency until 30, so GOTO (2). (fwiw the new stats are super interesting and it's neat to see 'oh, this outfielder's route was 95% optimal' but you can imagine that this sort of precise scrutiny would not be a good thing if it were turned on you at your job. and we have yet to see real fights over wearable biometric data, etc.) also, financial efficiency has become a weird positive for knowledgeable fans -- like omg the phillies paid way too much for X, or wow the yankees got a steal for ottavino at that price. (certainly we and i are guilty of this too.) but wanting your team to spend wisely prioritizes ownership over players and saving money over wins, and most teams only save to save (see 2) -- they don't then use the saved money to get more and better players.

anyway it's bad, and there should be a strike in 2021, and the players will probably lose again because ownership is united (and richer) and they aren't, and capital always wins ~fin~

I largely agree with all that. During the last offseason I chalked it all up to a perfect storm of circumstances (era of the superteams, weak free agent class, smarter front offices) but the trends can't be ignored now.

Strangely enough Patrick Corbin cashed in at the start of the offseason and it looked like things were off and running, but there haven't been any huge signings since then.

I'm reading Jon Pessah's "The Game" now, and in retelling everything leading up to the 1994 strike and its aftermath, he makes it clear that the owners had their asses handed to them from beginning to end from a labour relations standpoint. And yet, what did the players really win? In terms of public relations, no side won, or at least that's how I remember it at the time. The players avoided the disaster of a hard salary cap and replacement players taking their jobs, but the eventual deal introduced the luxury tax which is a cap in an alternate form. Essentially the players avoided taking a huge loss but haven't had a real win vs the owners since ... the collusion settlement from the 80's??

If the rest of this offseason is anything like the remainder of last offseason, we are going to be looking at flat Opening Day payrolls. Even more troublesome for the players is that while Opening Day payroll was down about one percent from 2017 to 2018, when the end of season numbers were calculated, that figure was closer to 2.5%. While not definitive yet, there seems to be a pretty good possibility that major league payrolls will go down for the second consecutive season.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-payroll-probably-isnt-going-back-up-in-2019/

asdrubal cabrera to the rangers to play 3B

@journalsentinel
BREAKING: American Family Insurance will replace Miller Brewing Co. as the naming rights sponsor for the Brewers' stadium.

join us for patriot day here at american family stadium, sponsored by family research council!

is Bernie Brewer gonna slide into a liability clause?

it's time for the 7th inning liability review meeting (call-in number will be provided)

ts: american families vs guaranteed rates

how exactly do I down a can of "American Family" in the parking lot

it's O'Doul's Tailgating day at the ballpark! Enjoy a cold one while you battle alcoholism!

nick markakis back to the barves, one year/$6m with a club option

the march toward 3000 hits continues

i know he's older but geez i would've figured after last year he coulda got a bit more than that!

18th in 2018 NL MVP voting; pay cut from $11m to $6m

Markakis had offers for more money and more years elsewhere. But he wanted to return to the Braves.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 22, 2019

i guess he really loved the tomahawk chop

ichiro to the mariners on a minor league deal. i assume this is just so he can play in japan but who knows

former red sox great drew pomeranz to the giants, one year/$1.5m

#Dodgers in agreement with free-agent outfielder A.J. Pollock, pending physical, sources tell The Athletic. Terms of deal not known.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 24, 2019

brad brach to cubs

So the Dodgers traded a three win outfielder (Puig) to clear out salary and bid on another three win outfielder (Pollock)?

idgi

Pollock is a better defender and a better on-base guy. They need that more than they need another slugger imo.

Puig was one of those human trafficking cases that the DOJ was looking into, maybe related to that?

the yankees are fun now

Adam Ottavino will wear No. 0 for the #Yankees, becoming the first player in franchise history to sport the uniform number.

— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) January 24, 2019

This fan does not approve. What's next, *negative* numbers?

Also, get a haircut.

pollock is older and a worse hitter (even OBP-wise) than puig, and has been essentially average the last three seasons (when he hasn't been hurt)

but maybe the dodgers didn't think they could re-sign puig, or were tired of the spectacle. it certainly suggests they're out on harper tho

I really think Machado and Harper still being unsigned means the players might need to strike before a new CBA

i would be ok with a strike if the world baseball classic just replaced it for a year

wonder if/when harper and boras will blink. supposedly he rejected 10/$300m from the nats already; would he take that now? is he willing to sit if he doesn't get $40m or whatever a year?

Dodger's have had pretty good run of talent coming up out of their minor leagues the past couple of seasons, so I got to figure they might have someone they are eyeing to make the jump to Chavez Ravine to play outfield.

pollock is older and a worse hitter (even OBP-wise) than puig,

Puig is definitely going to love hitting in Cincy. The Reds will be fun this year.

Alex Verdugo is the guy they're trying to make room for, their #1 prospect according to BA. He hit reasonably well last year in the majors, but hasn't shown any power.

I wish the Reds could have gotten Joc Pederson instead of Kemp. Joc could handle CF in GABP and probably hit 40 dingers playing there 1/2 his games instead of in the Ravine.

former pirate great justin wilson to the mets

former pirate/met great oliver perez returns to cleveland

the padres are gonna bring back the brown unis in 2020

so i see

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sd-sp-padres-brown-official-mlb-uniforms-0125-story.html

love it

i liked the all-yellow ones

the twins have signed jordany valdespin to a minor league deal for no earthly reason i can fathom

from the 2015 BP annual:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dxyawj4VAAADwyV.jpg:small

btw i quizzed a couple of alleged Twins fans last weekend who had not heard of Willians Astudillo

re the Dojers

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/1/22/18192483/los-angeles-dodgers-slow-offseason-yasiel-puig-bryce-harper

Of such little interest, it was hard to find a link:

http://www.athleticsnation.com/2019/1/25/18197886/oakland-as-sign-marco-estrada-free-agent

He was pretty solid in '15/16, especially in the postseason--not much left, I don't think.

lefty reliever Justin Wilson to Mets, 2 years $10 M

Whit Merrifield (MLB leader in hits and SB last year) gets 4 more years from KC

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whit-merrifield-and-royals-seek-safety/

Where's Adam Jones gonna go?

Rumors are the Reds are still in on trying to get JT Realmuto from the Fish. Reds first round pick/Florida Gator Jonathan India seems to be the name being one player of interest.

sandy alderson has been named a senior advisor to the oakland a's

guess i don't really understand the details of his departure from the mets

looking like NL Central is gonna be the most fun division by far

well Alderson was just reported cancer-free

he said he thought he had not earned a return

(to Queens)

If we've learned anything these last couple of offseasons, it's that the only real answer is to get all $1 players and pocket the other $22 https://t.co/jBlLItH8fv

— Patrick Dubuque (@euqubud) January 29, 2019

brisbee to the athletic

FUN FACT: I got him to post here once (twice?)

The Athletic, OTOH, is garbage.

all the good baseball writers disappearing behind a paywall, cept for Fangraphs holdouts

pittsburgh's own neil walker to the marlins (one year/$2m)

freddie galvis to the jays (one year/$4m)

The Nationals hired Jack McKeon as a (very) senior adviser.

Jimmy Rollins is returning to the Phillies as a special adviser.

Jenrry Mejia agreed to a minor league deal with the Red Sox.

https://deadspin.com/mlbs-luxury-tax-became-a-salary-cap-because-of-decades-1832200596

wade miley to the astros for a year

Normandin is way off in his reasoning there, the problem has little to do with the tax threshold. For the first fifteen years or so, only the Yankees paid any luxury tax and only a handful of other teams have since then. Most teams are so far under the threshold that it doesn't affect their decision making at all. Analytics have shown exactly how overpaid most free agents are, and how to find talent more efficiently through other means. This has completely upended the unwritten salary structure that's been entrenched over the past thirty years of labour agreements, and the strike to correct it is going to be really, really ugly I'm afraid. (if the players choose to go that route)

dunno how to read into Miley's surprisingly fine 2018 season (only 80 IP, but still), especially given how cooked he looked on the Orioles, but 4.5m seems like a good deal

rumours

When I checked on this, I did not get the same information Hunter did. https://t.co/M4uGTRTDFk

— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) February 1, 2019

as a perpetual 15-year-old, i don't know if i trust this 12-year-old with this rumour

https://i.imgur.com/8IsFZIn.png

Gio Gonzalez is apparently on the Mets’ radar.

Player movement is at its lowest since the mid '90s.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/roster-movement-is-decreasing-and-teams-are-becoming-more-homogeneous/

curtis granderson minor-league deal with the marlins

The Atlantic League's Sugar Land Skeeters have signed 1B/LHP James Loney (not a typo). Plan is to have him pitch and hit as a two-way player for the Skeeters. Loney was considered by many scouts to be a better P prospect than hitter in HS (back in '02).

— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) February 5, 2019

so are harper and machado (and keuchel) going to end up missing some of spring training? this shit is lame

nothing really new here, but a look at the granderson signing vis-a-vis the free-agency crisis:

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46963/transaction-analysis-curtis-grandersons-nri-and-baseballs-problem

I'm perfectly fine with teams waiting the market out on these guys...hard to get up in arms about Manny Machado having to wait out the winter *only* to pull down a couple hundred million dollars

this isn't exactly Curt Flood territory

Harper's thing is taking awhile because they want that monstrous contract and there are real questions about what Harper will bring to the table, he's had exactly 1 1/2 full seasons where he was worthy of such a deal. i don't doubt he would likely come through with some massive numbers but the days when people would seriously put him on par with Mike Trout have been over since sometime in 2016.

i really want to see him put up 2015 numbers for ten straight years going forward but he could also just be a very expensive version of Grady Sizemore.

And Machado isn't A-Rod or anything. I mean neither of these guys have shown the exceptional consistency you'd want when giving a guy a monster deal (and i mean even prior consistency didn't work out with Pujols...)

idk what these guys have been offered or what they may have turned down, but machado (whom i personally dislike) is a 26yo shortstop who hits 35 homers a year and might have had three top-five MVP finishes in the last four seasons had he played 2018 in one league. he's not a-rod, but he's *extremely* good, and MLB revenue has gone from $4B to $10B a year since a-rod signed his deal. if you gave machado a ten-year deal right now, he'd be robinson cano's current age at the end of it, and cano put up 3 WAR in 80 games last year

flags don't fly for financial efficiency, and as a fan i'm not sure why anyone should be excited because the owner saved money -- unless they're using the saved money on other good players, which they simply aren't

The 1/3 of clubs who are tanking aren't. But between their four free agent signings and the Paxton contract NYY spent $43 million this winter. You can certainly argue that with their revenue they shouldn't hesitate to go over the LT threshold...but so long as they choose to a Machado signing would seem to preclude acquiring those other players.

I just don't buy that there is anything remotely like collusion going on....advanced metrics have probably forever altered player valuation w/ greater weight given to roles like super-utility and middle relief. And why pay for the albatross years 8-9-10 on any contract considering the risk?

ftr I’d sign Machado before Harper, he has been more consistent and certainly less prone to injury.

One thing about Machado is that a lot of his value is in his defense and the metrics seem pretty sure that he's an all-world 3b and a basically average shortstop. Machado has insisted that SS is his position and if he holds to that, I think he goes from being a perennial MVP contender to being more on the "consistently very good" side.

sounds like realmuto to philly is approaching. jorge alfaro/sixto sanchez/others in return

is that too much? feels like too much. by a bunch.

i don't really think so?

two more years of control with JT?

realmuto is a clear step up from alfaro (and financially reasonable). sanchez might turn out to be good -- he's been solid in leagues he's way young for -- but he's also small by starter standards and simply hasn't pitched much due to injuries. supposedly the phillies are unhappy with his conditioning (?)

mets re-sign punxsutawney, pa native devin mesoraco to a minor league deal

ya, i'd misread the mlbtr story as the Marlins getting a whole pile of names back (they were just spitballing about who else could be involved). Alfaro/Sixto/throw-in is a solid deal for both, if that's what it winds up being.

https://media.giphy.com/media/l2SpZsWedp4ql8I00/giphy.gif

to texas on a minor league deal

noted weird guy brett lawrie to the brewers on a minor league deal!

Is it just me or are Nola and Severino's deals almost comically team friendly? I really don't get it from a player perspective -- why sign a "long term" with a far below market value AAV that also buys out just one free agent year? The money AND the security are low.

because the system is broken, and they've at least locked in being set for life

Signing for 1Y/$10M would also be enough to set a lot of people up for life. If their arms fall off tomorrow then it's a good deal for the players. But the next worst case is ... maybe hitting free agency and having to settle for far less than the $100M deal you hoped for, like Arrieta did? And in that time they'd make close to the same total salary that they're making now, realistically.

The system is broken all right -- way worse than I thought.

Mark Reynolds, who just signed with the #Rockies a few days before camp, told a free-agent tale today I’ve heard a lot. Got no offers for weeks. Then was playing golf a couple of weeks ago, got a call from his agent and had 4 teams offering minor league deals on the same day.

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) February 17, 2019

Owners would be that dumb to leave all the traces necessary for the existence collusion to be proven beyond reasonable doubt.

it seems pretty farfetched that teams would bother colluding on minor league deals for mark reynolds. but it's also strange

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26019145/third-baseman-mike-moustakas-returning-brewers

I forgot that Moustakas rejected the $17.4M qualifying offer two offseasons ago. Now he'll make less than $17M combined in 2018-2019.

Last offseason, rather.

they also picked up Brett Lawrie on a minor-league deal, which is surprising because I had no idea he was still playing - seems like a longshot given his mysterious quad injury and the fact that the dude can't hit breaking balls, but taking fliers on dudes like this is what Milwaukee does now. sad to think he was Milwaukee's blue-chip prospect once upon a time.

what's surprising to me is that Lawrie was better than i remembered, he put up a 15.1 bWAR in what amounted to a little more than 3 1/2 full seasons (588 games played over 6 years).

MACHADO to PADRES

LET'S GOOOOO

hope he's better than kemp was

10 years, $300m, no word on opt-outs

huh!

was still holding out a shred of hope he'd sign with the white sox but this is still more interesting than him going to philly

this is stupid

opt-out after the fifth season

i expect harper will sign relatively soon too, then, now that machado has a value

Congrats to the soon to be 71-91 Padres.

Franny Machado, 3B
Franchy Cordero, CF
Franmil Reyes, LF

great time to be a fran

i for one applaud the padres for this giant contract, let's get these players paid

idk if they'll be any good (they prob still won't lol) and it's never fun to watch a decent hitter go to petco but i appreciate their paying the guy what he deserves unlike these other vampires

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/603331836/twitterProfilePhoto.jpg

Machado's a great player, possibly historically great--with some obvious baggage re his temperament--but have the Padres ever been a really successful, financially sound organization? I know they made a couple of WS (in years when there were better NL teams). They've basically tied their hands for the foreseeable future, and they're not particularly close at the moment. And if they don't win soon, Machado will start complaining.

typical Padres

we see you Cameron

padres are in an interesting situation as the only (i believe) MLB team without direct NFL/NBA/NHL competition. they currently have the best/deepest set of prospects in the game. machado's contract takes their payroll from something like $70m to something like $100m, which won't crack the top 20 and is less than half of the top spenders.

i wouldn't call signing one of the top 10 players in the game 'tying their hands' but rather making an aggressive move at the right time. one that teams like the pirates and white sox never seem to have the stomach for.

Cubs weren't successful until they were. Obviously, the Padres believe that right now the core of young players is good enough to patch holes with free agents and thinking about seriously competing in 2020. World series appearances in decades past are no indication of anything at all.

xxxpost to Clem

if machado cared about winning soon, he would've signed with a team further along in their development, so i don't think he's going to complain about that

i could be wrong – but he doesn't seem like the type to let silly facts like that stop him from being a douche.

To be fair most teams who are further along in their development seem to be quite content with their shortstop situation.

lotsa douches have helped win pennants

Machado's deal is only $9M less than the $309M that the Padres spent on free agents in the past 25 offseasons combined.

don't almost all teams have billion dollar tv contracts now? now the padres have only $700M of their tv money left to spend over the next 10 years (or whatever, I'm making these numbers up but you get the idea)

There's that, and almost every team is at least tens of millions of dollars below the luxury tax threshold, so literally 20+ teams can't complain about having no chance with top tier free agents.

san diego is the eighth-largest city and 17th-largest metro area in the usa, it should hardly be considered a 'small market' anyway

they currently have the best/deepest set of prospects in the game

I don't keep up well with farm systems. If that's true, then the move makes a lot more sense.

their system is insane.

their rotation, as currently constructed, is pretty bad. i mean i love joey lucchesi but not as a no. 1 starter. but they could still afford keuchel or gio and they have the prospects to trade for kluber or whomever

(it would be total bullshit for the indians to trade kluber, but that doesn't mean they won't)

Yeah, if their infield is like Mejia-Hosmer-Urias-Tatis-Machado by 2020, and those three youngsters play as good as hoped, they could have an incredibly potent lineup (and afaik they're all considered at least defensively capable if not above average?). Urias was doing something like .300/.400/.500 at AAA? and mejia iirc broke the record for most games hitting streak in the minors, hit safely in something absurd like 60 games. and of course tatis is tatis, maybe the most hyped prospect not named Vlad or Eloy in 2019.

50 games, not 60, but still wild

Mejia-Hosmer-Urias-Tatis-Machado by 2020

glaring weakspot with hosmer, though. they really shit the bed with that one

he's only 29 and he already plays like late-period pujols every other year

still above-average defensively, which is something, plus virtually all 1Bs are bad right now somehow

wait no i think i am fucking him up with someone else... he is... bad defensively?

you'd be forgiven for thinking he was good defensively, because he somehow got gold gloves in 2013-15 and again in 2017.

hosmer's doing a latter-day brett saberhagen thing where he's only good in odd years, so they should be solid for '19 and '21

according to fangraphs, he was 10th worst defensive 1B in the American League in 2017, out of 12 qualifying players.

and if you expand it American League 1B from 2013-2017, the years during which he won 4 gold gloves, he was the very worst fielding first basemen out of 10 qualifying players.

the gold gloves are as predictive of merit as winning a grammy

one plus thing on the machado deal that i didn't think of - he'll most likely be at 3B once tatis jr comes up, which will increase his value

wouldn't moving his bat from ss decrease his value?

He’s better at 3B iirc?

I don't keep up well with farm systems. If that's true, then the move makes a lot more sense.

padres have the best system

https://cdn-blogs.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/prospects-fv-50-plus.png

Plenty of good 1b I shall not stand there and have the names of Votto and Goldschmidt insulted.

May work out well, but the thing with the Padres and 90% of all teams is that a move like that can't not work out. There's not much margin of error. The Yankees and Red Sox and Dodgers can make big, expensive mistakes and it's no big deal--they just throw more money around. Other teams can't.

that's true (although i think many of those teams *can* actually afford to make mistakes and are pretending otherwise)

but i think machado is probably about as sure a thing as is possible. he's really good, and at the end of his contract he'll be younger than robinson cano is right now

It's nuts. When he has the option to opt out in 5 years he will be Cano's age when he signed his mega-contract.

i think the padres could have afforded to make a mistake with machado, but not so much after making mistakes on hosmer and wil myers (although those were smaller mistakes). but if something goes wrong with machado, they're going to have a roster of really cheap star young players weighed down by three big long contracts. on the other hand, if machado performs as expected, hosmer is odd-year hosmer, and wil myers bounces back at all over the next few years, their lineup is going to be pretty scary

I assume that Harper will now sign somewhere for $310M, giving him and Boras the satisfaction of having won the off-season. But I'd prefer having Machado over Harper at that price, and it's not even close.

I would prefer Machado if I were a manager or perhaps even a GM. But as an owner or the marketing department it would be Harper all the way; and I think it counts.

Plenty of good 1b I shall not stand there and have the names of Votto and Goldschmidt insulted.

― Van Horn Street, Tuesday, February 19, 2019 7:55 PM (yesterday) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

i said virtually! there used to be like 15 of em but now it's like... votto, goldschmidt, freddie... rizzo is ok but not as good as he was... olson? bellinger for like half the season?

far cry from when you had miggy, pujols, teixeira, cdavis, edwin, agonz, and a bunch of those above guys all crushing it (although who knows maybe i'm just conflating every year from the past 10 years)

bryce is gonna sign with the cubs. all the "we don't have any money!" stuff is a smokescreen

which team's helmet will bryce remove as he whips back his sweaty hair in slow motion??

let's go bucs

Asked why payroll went down, Nutting said, "We need to focus on the things we believe are controllable."

— Bill Brink (@BrinkPG) February 20, 2019

Asked "Is payroll not controllable?" Nutting said, "I think payroll scale and range, broadly, is not controllable. We’re going to have certain resources that we have, and I think that that’s the reality of a marketplace." https://t.co/Z9cKr85bM8

— Bill Brink (@BrinkPG) February 20, 2019

fuck

hello friends. I have made the exciting and absolutely petrifying decision to accept a job with the Rays, who don't need my help. until they come to realize that, I am finished writing about baseball in the public. you are all a treasure. you may also now unfollow me

— Jeff Sullivan (@based_ball) February 22, 2019

Yarg

everything that I enjoy in life is being sucked into a black box and replaced with an alternate that’s behind a paywall

I do like meg rowley tho (and suggested to Ben n Sam back when I still had a Twitter) that she become the full time spot-starter if either of them got sick or jury duty

damn lost cameron and sullivsn i'm devastated

is it official she's the new co-host?

Generally loved Sullivan on the podcast, but occasionally annoyed by his inability to pronounce names of pre-1985 players, while pronouncing the T in "often."

N I’m just making an assumption and haven’t listened to the new ep yet

nooooooo not sullivan

marwin to the twins (2/$21m)

ervin 'magic' santana to the white sox on a minor league deal

matt duchene to the columbus blue jackets

brink tweet includes the words "went down Nutting" and i'm laughing and oh no i am 12 years old

unexpected, but Cardinals extend Jose Martinez through 2020.

Jose Martinez signed a two-year deal that will keep him in St. Louis through the 2020 season, the team announced (via Twitter). The team will pay Martinez $3.25MM guaranteed, plus incentives, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/cardinals-extend-jose-martinez-through-2020.html

unexpected because he is an atrocious fielder, both at 1B and at RF, where he'll see most of his playing time this year. i just assumed that he would go to the american league as soon as a decent trade opportunity came up, potentially at the trading deadline this year.

i guess, actually, that the possibility of him being traded at the deadline is still a possibility, only now he's an even more attractive trade target for an AL team because he's dirt cheap through 2020 and is an incredible hitter. and also one of the most entertaining personalities in the game

harper/phillies is pretty much a thing, apparently. final details being ironed out, expected to be finalized by monday

The Segura/Realmuto/Hoskins/Harper part of the lineup is going to be pretty fun.

as a heavy NL watcher i must admit i'm glad that Machado went West and Harper is (likely) going East. this way i'll get to see them on occasion but not so often that they'll ruin all my precious cardinal games

switching to Team Harper Hate

BREAKING: Third baseman Nolan Arenado and the Colorado Rockies are finalizing an eight-year, contract extension worth more than $255M, league sources tell ESPN. Deal includes an opt-out after three years, would give Arenado the largest per-year salary of any position player.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) February 26, 2019

also! hanle y to the indians on a minor league deal

whoa damn

lol if nolan arenado swoops in to get the biggest (AAV) contract of the offseason

and also damn, i had dreams of my favorite team of all time, the universally beloved st louis cardinals, picking up arenado someday. maybe they can still grab old tired worn out 2022 arenado

We are hearing Giants ownership/upper mgmt might not be on the same page as Zaidi regarding Harper. They want to offer a long term contract like they did with Bonds and Zaidi does NOT want to. Sabean/Baer step the F up, this is your team, not some slappy's from the Dodgers! @KNBR

— Smash Mouth (@smashmouth) February 26, 2019

I'm not sure that Bonds' $40M contract from 25 years ago is the best reference point here.

cardinals give miles mikolas 4/68

Amazing. His 2015 contract for the Yomiuri Giants was 2Y/$5M.

cardinals sign matt wieters to a minor league deal. he's not great, but he would be the best backup they've had since 2004, when yadi was the backup to mike matheny

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26113134/padres-sign-veteran-reliever-warren-1-year-deal

Twins should pounce on Keuchel and Kimbrel.

Keuchel must feel so dumb for turning down that $90M/5 extension from the Astros.

I think I’d be more mad at the agent, who is supposed to know these things

that agent is scott boras

iirc his former agent was the one who declined the $90/5 and that Boras is the new agent.

adam jones 1-year, $3 million with diamondbacks

alex bregman

he Astros and All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman have agreed to a five-year, $100 million contract extension, a source told MLB.com on Tuesday.

...His extension will cover his three arbitration years (2020-22) and his first two years of free agency (2023-24). Bregman will be entering his age-30 season when the contract expires.

Gio Gonzalez said the #Yankees deal was the only offer he got.

— Brendan Kuty (@BrendanKutyNJ) March 20, 2019

Top outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez and the Chicago White Sox are finalizing a long-term deal, league sources tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) March 20, 2019

it's gonna be like 10 years $27 million

sounds like six years + two club options for around $40m?

following the trail blazed by jon singleton and scott kingery

oh wait

Eloy Jimenez’s contract with the #WhiteSox is expected to max out at 8 years and valued between $75-80 million.

— Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) March 20, 2019

would this remove the benefit of service-time manipulation, because if so i'm in favor

Isn't that Alex Bregman deal an absolute steal for the Astros? He's 25, so they get his six prime years for $17-M/season. What I am I missing?...I'm surprised he signed, unless he envisions a protracted strike.

The two arbitration years they're buying out lower the average, but after that he's basically making 30 per. Not too shabby but certainly below his value.

maybe he's taking the douchebag discount

Any neo-classical economist who truly believe that a subject is always self-interested and rational should look at Bregman's contract.

or trout's

Cardinals reportedly nearing extension with goldschmidt worth $130M

extensions are the new free agency

The cardinal fans in Jupiter FL must have given him a super nice standing ovation on his first plate appearance

#bfib

Extensions have been replacing free agency for a while now. Mauer and Votto's extensions (with "small market" teams) are two good examples of contracts that were unimaginable just a few years earlier.

Bregman becomes a free agent at age 30 and in another era would be poised to get a windfall 6-7 year deal. But in this era who knows. I can't blame him for wanting to eliminate those distractions for the next five years, in any case he's set for life. This was basically Aaron Nola's reasoning too and he signed for less than half of what Bregman got.

So many extensions happening that Snell's $50M/5 got buried.

Sale $150M/5

Lol at Sale outperforming Snell x3 in the next 5 yrs

Verlander gets a $66 million extension with the Astros covering 2020-21

whoops

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ronald-acuna-jr-s-new-contract-is-staggering/

Players simply haven’t given up four free agent seasons this far from free agency, especially players of Acuña’s caliber. A guarantee for half that amount that ensured that Acuña hit free agency in his 20s likely would have been a better deal for Acuña and a positive deal for the Braves. This deal isn’t a steal because of the system that players and owners have set up. This is a deal that, even within that system, will likely prevent Acuña from ever being paid at a level anywhere near his true on-field value.

this isn't one of the ones that really gets me riled up... it's true that if acuna continues on this trajectory it will be a bargain for the braves but if he doesn't then it's a huge score for him. the exchanging of risk by both parties on this one seems pretty equal to me and at the end of the day the guy is getting $100 million (pre tax...)

obv the system that necessitates these deals in the first place needs to be overturned but there is always a rush to call these deals huge wins for the team but like... does anyone think gregory polanco is a huge steal on what is essentially the 3/24 left on the extension he signed in 2016? development timelines are wacky

i've seen that argument before and it feels like it's based on a concept of "value" that is just the player's potential positive impact over the course of the contract. but every one of these longer-term contracts is based on a market value that balances potential long-term positive impact with potential risk. the risk is factored into the value. and even with that risk factored in, acuna (and trout, and probably other players) are still being underpaid based on that value.

xpost

Obviously some of these contracts suck but in the greater national context of pay inequity it's very hard for me to get worked up about. We're talking about a little more than 600 employees whose average salary is $3.5 million (!)

Alll this indignation would be more productively aimed at perpetrators in the real world. The average salary for CEO at an S&P 500 firm is >350x that of the average laborer.

the players have a legit union w/ real leverage that will serve them again in time, which is more than can be said for almost all the rest of us

i am capable of being indignant about more than one thing

great facebook post though

you are special, most humans have finite resources of time and energy

xp thanks!

gregory polanco did not put up 4 war and win rookie of the year as a 20yo (and even 2 war/season, as polanco did last year, is more than enough to justify his contract).

it's hard to blame acuna -- he's a 21yo kid from venezuela who is now more than set for life. but i don't think the braves are taking on much risk at all. this might be an optimistic example, but mookie got $10m in his first year of arbitration and $20m in his second; acuna has locked himself into less than that for his entire prime. maybe the free agent system is irreparably broken and we don't know what 1 war is worth in an unopen market, but if we go by $8m-$9m, all the braves are risking is that acuna won't be worth 2 war per season throughout his 20s.

anyway, acuna's rich, braves ownership gets to keep more money, so it goes

Beetlejuice:
The in-unison chorus of “Acuna getting $100M is a ripoff” is a bit troubling to me. Why do so many media Acuna should immediately adopt their opinion because they “know better.” He’s trying to do what’s best for him and his family and everyone’s risk preference is different. (Even if it’s team friendly – the current landscape of media combativeness is no bueno)

Meg Rowley:
The deal is hilariously light for talented a player. I think we can recognize why an individual wants to be set for life while still bemoaning the incentives at work that inspired him to sign such a deal.

The media’s job isn’t to be conciliatory toward teams. Our job is to properly assess and analyze baseball news.

i have a side question but has anyone done any mathy articles describing why everyone places a "dollar value" on WAR as if it's geometric and not e.g. logarithmic? like why is a 9-WAR player worth 3 times a 3-WAR player? is it because there are so many players on a team + a multi-year deal means even more players over time?

also i'm not a math boss so idk if i am using geometric and logarithmic right. i don't even know if i'm spelling the last one right. i'm a fuckin mess

linear vs log is what you're looking for.

Wins are measured integrally, so it lends itself to the linear scale.

cubs extend ... david bote? through ... 2024?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D208mp_X0AAi8g4.jpg:small