2019 Awards Thread

Early, I know, but if I post this on the 2018 thread, someone may complain...Yellinger is shaping up to be quite an MVP race. Two HR for Yelich tonight, one for Bellinger, close in many basic categories.

https://www.mlb.com/news/bellinger-yelich-competing-for-triple-crown

those two are really close in a lot of categories. It's tough to say since Bellinger is really having an insane season but Yelich just keeps hammering the ball. It will really come down to the last couple weeks. There's nobody else who's even close to them.

Trout's closest competition is Bogaerts, I guess. Maybe Bregman. This seems to be a pretty obvious landslide for him.

Verlander ahead of Cole. Looks like Verlander will clear 20 wins too.

Ryu, unless he collapses. In which case it might be Scherzer, if he goes on a hot streak.

Posnanski posted Yelich's totals for the last 162 games today: .339/.431/.713, 38 doubles, 6 triples, 61 homers, 138 runs, 140 RBI, 32 SB...105 XB hits!

I thought Scherzer was a clear pick over Ryu when Scherzer went down, but he's probably fallen behind by now. Trout unanimously (not that he needs it, but Bogarts/Devers splitting votes further ensures that); Verlander right now for sure, but there's still time on that one.

Ryu just hit the IL, not sure how long he'll be there

fWAR

Scherzer 5.6
deGrom 4.6
Strasburg 4.0
Ryu 3.9

FIP

Scherzer 2.08
Ryu 2.84
deGrom 2.85

Ryu seems to be locking down the Cy Young Award, after today he's 12-2 with an ERA of 1.46 -- though he's 9-0 and 0.82 at home.

Washington has 46 games left, and Scherzer's throwing a simulated game Tuesday. Which means, what? Deduct another 10 games and he's got 7 or 8 starts left? He'll probably end up ahead in WAR, but still tough if Ryu posts a sub-2.00 ERA with 16 or 17 wins.

I mean, I know wins don't matter anymore, but except in extreme cases like deGrom last year--where the low-win guy is clearly and demonstrably the best pitcher in the league--I sense they still count for a little? I don't know--it evolves with each situation.

I’m totally still in the camp that Scherzer is capable of winning and Ryu can of course go on a bad streak that would wreck his numbers. But w/Scherzer still out and that Madduxy ERA I think the voters are obv gonna need some reasons to not give it to Ryu.

Ryu has only 8 IP more than Scherzer even with the missed time.

NL rookie race should be interesting between alonso, tatis and soroka

gonna be tough for ppl to look past all of alonso's homers (especially if he ends up leading the league)

Normally--not this year--Bryan Reynolds would have a shot. (The only reason I'm even aware of him is because I clicked on Bo Bichette's draft round this morning--same round as Alonso.) He's actually about even with Alonso in WAR.

If all four of those guys end up with 5.0+ WAR (all are presently on pace to do so), would that rank with the greatest rookie crops ever for one league? Have to believe that's relatively rare.

carson kelly and chris paddack and keston hiura have also been good

i guess yordan alvarez is gonna run away with the AL RoY despite not debuting until june 9

I guess Play Index could answer the question I posed above--four rookies over 5.0 WAR in one league--but I don't know how to do that.

Here's one round-up of the best rookie classes ever:

https://www.mlb.com/news/best-rookie-classes-in-mlb-since-1947-c295885062

They've got 2015 #1, both leagues. There were five guys over 4.0 that year in total, but only one, Kris Bryant, over 5.0.

Yordan Alvarez has tied Joe Dimaggio's record for most RBIs through a player's first 46 games (51 RBIs).

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) August 13, 2019

speaking of brian reynolds being overlooked/underrated, he has the fourth-highest OBP for the season so far after trout, yelich, and bellinger

#1 in batting everage

The NL Cy Young looks certain to be between three low-win guys, Scherzer, deGrom, and Ryu. (Strasberg is so manifestly behind them statistically, can't see much support in 2019--he may have a shot at 4th or 5th.) Wouldn't be surprised at all if deGrom wins a second one if he keeps pitching this well through September.

"Low-win guys" (15 or fewer, I'd say) is probably going to be the norm rather than the exception from here on out.

No one is really stepping up to claim that NL Cy right now, Scherzer is getting eased back into things slowly and Ryu has been bad of late. DeGrom could take it again but idk.

I’m rooting for Alvarez to win it with less than 81 games played.

JV and Cole had been very close statistically speaking for awhile but this coupled w/Cole’s last start puts him way out in front for the Cy.
― omar little, Sunday, September 1, 2019 3:44 PM (yesterday)

It'd be hard to make a case for Cole today, unless you place an inordinate amount of importance on FIP--Cole still leads by half of run because of Verlander's HR. But they're still close enough that one great start by Cole coupled with one really poor one by Verlander would probably be enough to reverse that.

VHS: Alvarez would be a terrible choice for NL Cy Young.

looking fwd to the oldschool freakouts if Mike Minor get any first-place votes

This came up on another thread. According to Baseball Reference, hitters get a 5% advantage in Texas, pitchers a 2% advantage in Houston. And on Fangraphs, the Astros rank 16th defensively, the Rangers 23rd. Having said that...

V: 2.56 ERA, 193 IP, 257 K, 177 ERA+, 3.42 FIP, 0.772 WHIP, 7.34 K/BB, 6.7 WAR
C: 2.85 ERA, 170 IP, 252 K, 159 ERA+, 2.93 FIP, 0.957 WHIP, 6.15 K/BB, 4.7 WAR
M: 3.25 ERA, 174 IP, 175 K, 158 ERA+, 3.95 FIP, 1.205 WHIP, 3.07 K/BB, 7.0 WAR

WAR on Fangraphs: Cole 5.3, Verlander 5.2, Minor 3.9.

Even with adjustments, I find the idea that Minor is the best of those three bizarre.

Sorry Clem, I was discussing the (lifeless) AL ROY.

Minor shutting out NYY thru 5

Cole has struck out 14 in six innings...which brings to him to 105 pitches, though; not sure what his limit is. He's probably out, one inning more at most.

Verlander pitches well yesterday and wins, Cole--through 7 innings--working on a one-hitter with 13 strikeouts today.

Verlander and Cole back-to-back is looking like some real Johnson-Schilling shit

Has anyone ever reached 300 Ks before they reached 200 IP? Cole has 281 strikeouts in 184.1 IP...

If I still had my baseball reference subscription I’d search for single seasons where a SP had a 13.5 K per 9 rate or higher. Alas...

you don't need a subscription (Cole's alone)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/strikeouts_per_nine_season.shtml

actually Randy Johnson got to 300+ before he hit 200 IP in 2001 (the season he struck out 372 in 249.2 IP)

Pedro came close in '99 (313 K in 213.1 IP for the year), but looking at his game logs, I think he just missed. Ryan was never even close to a 100+ K/IP margin, so pretty sure no for him.

100 K/IP, now that would be a record

I know you're kidding...I should have rendered that as +100 IP-K.

Even better: +100 K-IP.

btw deGrom is clearly the Mets' MVP, and trails only Bellinger, Yelich and Marte among all NL players (due in part to his batting value).

Scherzer and Ryu are both taking themselves out of the running lately. I'm thinking DeGrom might repeat.

I'll have to compare tomorrow, but in the AL, I thought Verlander and Cole were close enough that one start by each could reorder them. And that's exactly what has happened--so-so start by Verlander yesterday, another dominant performance by Cole today. I think Cole might have overtaken him for the moment.

Cole has been so good lately, it does seem like he's finishing very strong and Verlander may just be finishing "well".

degrom's having another great season but i think this is scherzer's to lose

I think you're going to see two of the closest Cy votes ever (certainly in a single season).

Scrolled through, and I only found one year where both winners were under an 80% share of the vote: 1973. Palmer beat Ryan 88-62 (14 first-place votes to 9...Blyleven ahead in WAR by 2-3 wins; think I had an epic argument about that one once), Seaver beat Marshall 71-54 (10 first-place votes to 9...Seaver was ahead in WAR 10.6 to 3.0!). Anyway, both leagues should be even closer this year. With Verlander-Cole, they're so close you either flip a coin or delve into Game Scores and strength-of-opposition.

When Alvarez pulls the ball in the air, he bats .868 with a 2.421 slugging percentage.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/youre-probably-underrating-yordan-alvarez

I don't know who votes in these mlb.com polls, but they've got Verlander still way ahead of Cole.

https://www.mlb.com/news/cy-young-poll-close-between-degrom-scherzer

That doesn't seem right; they ought to be very close.

Verlander has that Pedro-like WHIP, plus the WAR lead. And the wins lead, if you wanna kick it old-school.

i think one more "decent" JV start coupled with another otherworldly Cole start, plus him hitting 300 ks, might nudge him out in front.

Great six innings from Verlander last night. We'll see how Cole responds--back and forth. They're definitely up with (though not equal to, I don't think) Johnson/Schilling right now.

This site looks at strength of opposition--supposedly Verlander has had a clearly tougher draw.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2019/9/17/20870026/justin-verlander-vs-gerrit-cole-for-cy-young-2019

Cole has two starts left at this point, I guess? Verlander may also have two, which gives him a clean shot at the coveted and gritty 20 win mark.

it’s surprising to me that strength of competition isn’t incorporated into basic WAR

c'mon Mike Minor!

Jacob deGrom's National League Cy Young Award defense gained some additional momentum today, when Max Scherzer allowed five runs in 6.2 IP.

deGrom ranks:

-First in pitcher bWAR
-First in strikeouts
-First in WHIP
-Second in pitcher fWAR
-Third in ERA
-Fifth in innings

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 18, 2019

I don't give a fuckitty fuck who wins the awaaahds

― a Mets fan who gave up on everything in the mid '80s (Dr Morbius), Sunday, September 15, 2019 8:17 AM (three days ago) bookmarkflaglink

Genuinely curious as to why anyone would be rooting for Minor, a journeyman, to win over one certain HOF'er and one potential HOF'er--to me, no different than voting some half-season fluke into the All-Star Game. He's got a quirky, hard to explain lead in Baseball Reference's WAR calculation (down to 0.1 over Verlander), not really close in Fangraph's.

well, i wouldn't *vote* for him because i find his b-ref WAR a little crazy

but why not *root* for a guy who missed two entire seasons with shoulder surgery, went to the bullpen, came back as a starter and is having a career year at age 31? verlander's going to cooperstown whether he wins it or not

If he were deserving, sure--I just can't see that he is next to the two Houston guys.

"they do nothing but give out awaaaahds"

yeah NA, I still don't, you POS

they've got Verlander still way ahead of Cole.
That doesn't seem right; they ought to be very close.

Verlander is more established and famous. The End.

It would be cute if JV lost out on a writers' award in the wake of having a writer barred from the clubhouse.

Cole just hit 300 Ks in 198.1 IP.

Six innings, two hits, 8 K, no walks or runs...His last ~15 starts must be on par with Arrieta's run a few years ago.

yeah NA, I still don't, you POS

c'mon man

he's been up my ass for about 15 years, c'mon him

Xpost all the way back to Clemenza, but “half-season flukes” are the best part of the all star game thankyouverymuch

I’m sorry. I just irealized I interrupted a fight.
Let’s fight about scrubs in the ASG instead.
I’m calling you out, Clem!

if you want to get fired up about unperson disrespecting leftists, then go crazy. you'll get banned, but i'm sure it will have been worth it

a) this board is about baseball
b) you posted about your team's ace on a thread specifically about awards, which three days ago you posted that you didn't care about
c) do you really want to post on a board by yourself, with no one to disagree with, because you've taken it too seriously?

i mean i know you, and that you're a sweetheart. stop being a dick about a game -- especially one that we all like very nearly as much as you

^^^ otm

“half-season flukes” are the best part of the all star game thankyouverymuch

I do understand the appeal--I think I'm generally viewed as the naive "narrative" guy around here--but I've long thought that the All-Star Game should be for the best players within, I don't know, a two-year window at least (preferably a little longer than that). If it comes down to a 37-year-old Willie Mays having a good-not-great season or Bernie Carbo tearing up the league--how's that for a timely example?--I want Mays in there.

(Hypocrisy interlude: I haven't actually watched more than a few minutes of an All-Star Game in at least a decade.)

I generally feel the same way about awards, unless the guy with the great story also has a legitimate statistical argument--i.e., I enjoyed seeing journeyman knuckleballer R.A. Dickey win. But I don't want Minor to win because I see no credible argument that he's the best pitcher in the league.

Alfredo Griffin was the greatest all star ever.

Search your feelings. You know it is true.

And with awards I’ll take things a little more seriously.
But there’s 50 or whatever all stars every year, we got space for a few randos every year.

I don't think there's any serious support for Minor because a lot of people suspect the BR number is fishy. This is definitely a case where comparing the two versions of WAR can be illuminating.

Great comeback season though, and definitely worth rooting for.

Let me clarify:

I am sure that just as Trout has been the best player in the game this year (again). deGrom has been slightly better than Scherzer. This is the point I am making.

What the BBRAA says on the matter is of no consequence. I didn't watch the Oscars last year either.

Thanks you for your attention.

i'm just needling morbs. there's no real acrimony on my part. and i interpreted morbs's response the same way.

Clem, at equal stats, I think a lot of us would give the award to the underdog if only because it makes this beautiful moment for him and the other dude already has all the awards; one more, one less, who cares. There is just a tendency as baseball fans (non-Yankees) to want to see happiness well spread.

In the case of Minor it is also refreshing to see a 92/93 mph fastball in contention. It doesn’t happen often that a less than 95 mph fastball pitcher wins the Cy Young.

These days, I mean.

Stats being equal (or even close), I totally understand that, and have been on the underdog side myself. Again--and Baseball Reference notwithstanding--I just can't get my head around the idea that they're close this year.

It's actually not that rare for an AL pitcher with a FB average less than 95 mph to win the CY Young: Porcello, Keuchel, and Kluber twice did it and that's just the past 5 years.

Still, go Minor.

for your eyes only

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-al-cy-young-voting-guide/

Verlander and Cole are scheduled to get two starts each--games 156/57 and 161/62, unless they're held back the last two for the playoffs. Verlander dominates Baseball Reference's leaderboards, old stats and new, but I still think they're close enough that Cole could overtake him.

more eyes only

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-nl-cy-young-voter-guide/

As much as I wanted to see Scherzer win another (clinching my HOF bet...which is pretty safe anyway), it's clearly deGrom's award now--he may even win lopsidedly. He leads both Baseball Reference and Fangraphs in WAR, and if you look at Scherzer's season, he was dominant for one month (June), and the rest of the time he's either been hurt or mediocre. deGrom, meanwhile, has been just as untouchable as last year the whole second half.

He also, eventually, because of his late start, might be the first starting pitcher whose HOF case is viewed through a radically different lens than the one that's been more or less in place for decades.

This AL Cy Young is something else. I see one thing after another naming Verlander, but Cole just plows ahead. He's pitched six innings tonight: 2 hits, no walks or runs, 11 strikeouts.

Another 14 K's, no runs in 7 IP. There's very little separating them, although I still feel that Verlander is the sentimental favourite of the voters (i.e. we owe him for past years when he could have/should have won).

it's going to be a close one though right now i think Verlander has the edge. He's way ahead in bWAR, and a bit behind in fWAR.

both of them have one more start, and considering how well both have pitched over the past month it might only wind up making the choice more difficult for anyone who's on the fence.

if it stays as it is, it'll be Verlander/Cole/Bieber/Morton/and....idk, Rodriguez or Giolito? In that order.

i think DeGrom wins it in the NL, and i suspect the voting will be something like DeGrom/Scherzer/Ryu/Strasburg/Flaherty in that order.

Greinke is the forgotten man in the Cy voting due to league splitting, but he might wind up w/18 wins and impressive stats all around. He gets the honorable mention plus the extra HOF bonafides.

the Mike Minor arguments are kinda interesting but i don't entirely buy them.

cole has more strikeouts, fewer homers allowed and a significantly better FIP/xFIP

verlander has more innings and better WHIP. verlander also has (among qualifiers) the highest LOB% (88.5) and far and away the lowest BABIP (.218 -- next-lowest is samardzija at .238; cole's is .277)

i think that explains why cole leads in fWAR -- verlander seems to have been luckier -- but i don't really understand why verlander is so far ahead in bWAR when their outcomes are so similar

verlander's BABIP, for a season, is the 11th-lowest ever for a qualified pitcher

regarding the BABIP thing, a full 25% of the hits he’s allowed have been home runs. idk how that measures historically, but it seems absurd, and certainly could give the false impression that he’s gotten lucky

They seem so close across the board. One edge to Verlander is that Cole's given up seven unearned runs, Verlander only two. I doubt these guys get pulled mid-inning very often, but how many bequeathed runs have they been charged with?

a full 25% of the hits he’s allowed have been home runs

that is pretty crazy, but his HR/FB is, at 15.5%, roughly average (and actually lower than cole's 17.3%). if he induced more grounders or strikeouts -- something more in his control than BABIP -- he'd have given up fewer homers. i think the 25% is because he should theoretically have allowed more base hits rather than that he theoretically should have yielded fewer homers

anyway, while i like JV, i'm rooting for cole because it makes the pirates look even worse. and fuck them

JdG seems to have locked it down tonight

Not even close anymore. In the space of 3-4 weeks, it's gone from a coin flip to deGrom winning near-unanimously. Scherzer still leads in a couple of categories--FIP and K/BB--otherwise, it's hard to make a credible case for him.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jacob-degroms-remarkable-run/

If deGrom adds a third Cy Young to the one he'll win this year, I think he's a definite HOF candidate. As I mentioned above, I think that 10-15 years down the road, the criteria for starters will have continued to evolve to a point that looks very different from what we're used to. Without even getting into newer stats, If deGrom has three Cy Youngs, ~150 wins, and a very low lifetime ERA, I think that'll make for a good case. There a few two-time winners not in the Hall, but everyone with three or more is in. I don't think voters will really hold a late start against him, not if he continues to pitch really well into his mid-late '30s, and a low win total because he never got any run support won't mean anything. There might be a possible comparison to Santana, but, "narrative"-wise, I think a career that's basically over at 31 is a bigger obstacle to overcome than a late start and excellence in your 30s.

And who knows? He might win four Cy Youngs.

It all depends on ligaments and hips.

Four Cy Youngs might never happen again!

My questions for the NL CY is if Strasburg and Corbin are going to get votes, what a trio. Wouldn’t want to face them in the post-season.

Strasburg is def gonna get a decent number of votes. Beginning to wonder if he may rise up to #2 in the end, due to having a very excellent season along w/recency bias in terms of his past month (vs the performances of Scherzer and Ryu).

strasburg leads the majors in baseball prospectus WARP

Four Cy Youngs might never happen again!

But that's one area where usage patterns don't matter at all--there's got to be a Cy Young winner every year.

I was wondering, though--as starters pitch fewer and fewer innings, will closers again become more of a factor in Cy voting? If the main argument that sent them into exile is they pitch so many fewer innings than starters--certainly true when the gap was, say 250+ innings to 70--will the same argument hold if it's 170 innings vs. 70 high-leverage innings?

Semien MVP?

I've been saying all through this thread that Trout has it clinched, but a couple of days ago Posnanski said he's sure that Bregman will win. The main point of the piece was that, while Trout has lost three or four MVP votes he could've/should've won, he's at least lost every time to an MVP-caliber season--no Morneaus or Dawsons in there. He thinks Bregman will continue that pattern.

Verlander did almost everything he needed to do to clinch--300th/3000th strikeout, win, 12 K and no walks--but, what else, two of the four hits he gave up were HR, so he got dinged for three runs. I honestly think there's an opening for Cole to take it tomorrow if he throws up another 90+ Game Score-type start.

soon enough -- maybe not today; maybe not tomorrow -- we're gonna look back and wonder why trout didn't win like seven MVPs

not playing full seasons is going to be the story. bergman is a deserving winner this year

bregman

If Trout supplied more value in less time (not clear), it makes no sense to penalize him.

Catch-22: Houston's piling on runs today and Cole's pitching well, but in terms of what he needs to have a chance at the Cy, the extra runs may hurt more than help. He'll get the win, but I figure he needs eight dominant innings, and he'll probably be pulled after six.

cole with 10+ strikeouts in mlb-record ninth straight outing

bregman: 8.4 bWAR
trout: 8.3
semien: 8.1

WAR's great for narrowing the field, but once you have, and it's that close--surely within the margin of error--I'd discard it and look at everything else.

I would still pick Trout for MVP, despite the missed time.

and look at everything else

Including ballpark factors wrt Semien/Oakland Coliseum!

park factors are in WAR, right?

That's what I meant--WAR has taken park, position, etc. and determined that these three guys essentially provide equal value. So you look elsewhere in deciding your vote, things that aren't factored into WAR. I know I don't get a lot of agreement here, but in a close vote, I'd want to weigh when the player was at his best against, for instance, when the team took hold of a pennant race. Rendon was fantastic when the Nationals surged in August or whenever it was; I know Bellinger will likely win, but I think there's an argument to be made for Rendon. (And stepping into the breach after Harper's departure, that counts in my mind too.) In the AL, the fact that Bregman overtook Trout when Trout was hurt (and playing for a team going nowhere anyway), while Bregman's team had long since more or less clinched their division, that's an argument for Trout.

I know it drives some people up the wall when I post about such stuff. But I don't think that's any more specious than deciding player A deserves the award over player B because player A had a 0.3 edge in WAR (while player B might have had the edge in someone else's WAR calculation).

Interesting fact re. Semien - led the team in RBI as their leadoff hitter

clem, I don't think that's unreasonable, but to me breaking down by parts of the season gets a little too arbitrary -- all the games count. I am more ok with rewarding a player for playing on a better team actually, for the reason that more of their games were meaningful. but as you say, they provided equal value and you have to pick your tiebreakers somehow, and they're all imperfect

i think Trout wins, it's similar to clem's Verlander/Cole argument that Bregman didn't necessarily do anything absurd to set himself apart from Trout. I think it'll be somewhat close, though maybe he suffers from being on the same team as a couple of HOF starting pitchers and a guy who seems on the road to being one, not to mention some other MVP-caliber batters.

I think Verlander edges out Cole but it'll be maybe even closer than the MVP race.

DeGrom and Bellinger seem like total locks in the NL.

is Bellinger really that amazing a fielder to boost his WAR so much? Yelich has Cody (and the rest of the NL) handily beat in AVG, OBP, SLG and OPS+, way more SB and only trails him by 3 home runs. this would look like an easy choice for Yelich, until you hit WAR.

I saw him make a helluva throw/assist vs Mets.

I think you may be forgetting that Dodger Stadium is a "pitcher's park" (still, I think).

This is very hard for me to type, because I know it is a controversial metric that will get a lot of blowback on here, but the ILB Fantasy League rates Yellich's 2019 > Bellinger's.

For direct comparison between player seasons, raw counting stats (and basic rate stats) aren't helpful. Gotta keep those Rockies hitters away from the hardware.

I didn’t realize how big the bref war gap was between Yelich and Bellinger.

ah - park factor was something i hadn't considered. tho, doesn't OPS+ account fo that, or am I mistaken?

It does.

High school counsellor voice*

There are no wrong answers

... or they are *all* wrong!

my calculations find that greg garcia is once again the MLB leader in WAR, once adjusting for team-playerness and grit

some discussion here of defense in comparing trout and bregman (none of it definitive, of course)

(Given how well we can measure defense, Mike Trout’s 0.1 WAR lead over Alex Bregman is not large enough to be the foundation of an argument to give Trout the MVP over Bregman.)

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) October 1, 2019

I **love** how Eno confuses "well" with "poorly" in his first tweet.

Top NL outfielders by defensive Win Shares:

Victor Robles - 4.9
Lorenzo Cain - 4.3
Cody Bellinger - 4.3
Harrison Bader - 4.0
Kike Hernandez - 4.0
Kevin Pillar - 3.9
Ronald Acuna - 3.8
Harold Ramirez - 3.7

Yelich is 2.4. You have to divide Win Shares by three, so the difference between Bellinger and Yelich (1.6) is basically a half Win Share.

Strike Hernandez from that - he earned a lot of his playing second base this year

is Bellinger really that amazing a fielder to boost his WAR so much? Yelich has Cody (and the rest of the NL) handily beat in AVG, OBP, SLG and OPS+, way more SB and only trails him by 3 home runs. this would look like an easy choice for Yelich, until you hit WAR.

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, October 1, 2019 12:55 PM (four hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

he’s a freak athlete, the guy plays first base and also plays a great centerfield, it’s p nuts

I thought that was only a thing in OOTP baseball! Obviously I need to watch a few dodger playoff games

Players selected Gerrit Cole, Lucas Giolito and Justin Verlander as finalists in the American League and Hyun-Jin Ryu, Mike Soroka and Jacob deGrom in the National League in voting for Outstanding Pitcher honors in the 2019 Players Choice Awards.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) October 16, 2019

maxless

not necessarily surprised at no Max, but somewhat surprised that Strasburg or Flaherty didn't wind up in his spot.

how do we justify Soroka over Strasburg and Max?

MLB jocks

they aint too smaaaaaht

giolito and soroka seem like 'good narrative' picks, although they could also have gone with minor or lance lynn

I didn't know Tom Tango had a formula to predict Cy Young winners: (IP/2 - ER) + SO/10 + W. Couldn't be simpler. Even there, still a toss-up, but he does give Cole a slight edge.

Cole -- 99.8
Verlander -- 98.5

Do you mean subtract the walks?

I cut-and-paste that from Tango's site...you would think so, yeah.

Wait a minute: W = wins. As Tango says, he's trying to predict the winner, not determine who deserves the award, and by his estimation, wins still carry a little weight--about 10% of the total in his formula. Here's what led me to the formula:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/youll_ryu_the_day/

One of the things I like about the formula is that, although it doesn’t weigh wins as heavily as other formulas ( which certainly reflects the trend in voter preferences), it doesn’t entirely dismiss them either. It recognizes that wins still carry some weight with some of the voters, and can help sway some votes if pitchers are close in other regards. I think that’s reasonable – clearly wins don’t mean as much as they used to in winning the Cy Young Award, but they do still mean something. deGrom was able to win the award in 2018 despite a modest win total because his ERA was light years better than everyone else’s, but if it was closer, you can bet that his lack of wins would likely have become a bigger factor.

i'm sure noted hockey fan tom tango is just having fun with stats but we could also . . . just wait for the results

On Monday, MLB announced the six candidates for AL and NL Comeback Player of the Year. The list includes Lucas Giolito, Hunter Pence and Jorge Soler in the AL and Josh Donaldson, Sonny Gray and Hyun-Jin Ryu in the NL.

i'll take giolito and gray

don't you have to have arrived in order to come back? i'd disqualify giolito and soler on those grounds, so it would be pence in the AL.

Pence's story has some teeth, finally coming home after all these years and having an incredible first half. He sort of checked out in the 2nd half but made a big enough dent for the BBWAA to recognize.

Players selected Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman and Mike Trout as finalists in the American League and Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger and Anthony Rendon in the National League in voting for Outstanding Player honors in the 2019 Players Choice Awards.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) October 17, 2019

Pretty much 6/6 if pitchers are excluded...I suppose there might be another choice as valid as Devers.

Marcus Semien

Forgot about him--a better choice.

mike trout and christian yelich have won the 2019 hank aaron awards as Most Outstanding Offensive Performer in their leagues

carlos carrasco = roberto clemente award

racist josh header, abuser aroldis chapman named relievers of the year

Is he still a racist ?

is he still an abuser ?

It was funny to see these two get honoured during the WS, seeing as both Washington and Houston reached the WS because of their respective screw-ups.

Xp I don’t know, I live with the certainly naive hope that people can grow out of racist ideology. Abuse I don’t see it the same way.

fielding bible awards: http://fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

What’s with Joe voting Cain the 7th best CF? Come on, Joe

James: "74% of you think that Trout SHOULD win the MVP, 53% think that he will. FWIW, I'd probably vote for Semien. I think that the argument that Trout should win because he is the best player in baseball is a legitimate argument, but that there are other approaches which are also valid."

Bregman, Trout, and Semien are only separated by 0.3 in bWAR, but that's still an odd choice that could use some explanation.

depends on one's assessment of their defensive values, it would seem

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIyG74rVAAE2Usa?format=png&name=small

the astros were an average defensive team, weird

Cy Young winners through the prism of analytics:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/back_to_the_future_part_4/

When I was new here, I had an epic argument with SF Alex over the '73 AL Cy Young (short version: I said there was at least a case for Palmer, Alex said open-and-shut for Blyleven). Daniel Marks says neither.

Actually, through the prism of Tom Tango's CY formula.

ALONSO

robbed of unanimity

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2019/11/11/20959532/mets-news-pete-alonso-wins-rookie-of-the-year-award-new-york-mlb

Both MOY votes were really close, for the first time in many years (I think)? Four or five managers in each league had legit cases for winning too.

DeGrom wins the NL Cy Young, 29 out of 30 first place votes.

Ryu gets the other

Verlander wins in the AL, 17 first place to Cole's 13.

Cole wuz robbed!

Cole and Verlander had all the first place and all the second place votes. I'm assuming it's the first time that's happened.

Don't know if they got it right, but I thought Verlander-Cole was every bit as close as it should have been. (And the NL vote was every bit as not-close as it should have been.)

Cole and Verlander had all the first place and all the second place votes. I'm assuming it's the first time that's happened.

i don't know of a counter-example off-hand, but that seems like it has to have happened before. pretty much anytime 2 pitchers stand head and shoulders above the rest of the league, right?

i feel like it would have happened w/Johnson and Schilling, maybe, but i only found the 2002 results thus far and Johnson was unanimous #1 and Schilling won almost all the second place votes but several guys threw votes to Smoltz and Gagne (lol), they were so dominant mowing down a couple of batters twice a week or so that year.

Cole and Verlander had all the first place and all the second place votes

see also trout and bregman

I figured NTBT was talking about teammates

oic

Good laugh at the 6 writers who gave LeMahieu the third place over Semien.

Actually I wasn't talking about teammates. But considering it happened again the very next day, maybe it isn't so rare?

Usually there's one near consensus pick or a few really good candidates and a highly split vote, no? I thought that two consensus candidates would be extremely rare.

maybe with the "numbers revolution" blah blah blah voters are becoming "more informed" (or something) thus there being less variance in their choices