2022-23 Hot Stove thread

Pedro Grifol hired as the new White Sox manager - https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10053188-pedro-grifol-hired-as-white-sox-manager-to-replace-tony-la-russa-after-royals-stint

Mets reportedly have signed Edwin Diaz to a 5 year/$102M deal. He’s still only 28.

Most of the Mets' pitching staff are free agents. I didn't think resigning Diaz was the top priority, but there you go. How much did deGrom's asking price just go up?

Resigning Diaz was a no brainer and felt like a top priority to me. He had an incredible year and is popular with fans/clubhouse/NY market.

signing players who are popular is the new market inefficiency

Hope he never leaves.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/dodgers-clayton-kershaw-back-with-los-angeles/

hard to imagine how the mets giving out the richest relief pitcher contract in history could backfire on them

I'm a little surprised there aren't more wakefield style end of career deals made. Kersh seems like a good choice for such a thing

Verlander too, for that matter; like 3 years guaranteed high AAV + mutual options

Diaz signing seems like a recipe for future regret tbh

the mets seem well positioned to spend way too much money, but if things go south it's going to be really hard to find another team to take on $20M/yr for a reliever

Does anyone else to off-season predictatrons?
I do the MLBTR one every year with a friend as a contest between the two of us, and it looks like the baseball subReddit has one based on fangraphs top 50 FA aswell.

Should I post my guesses so you can all mock me?

Yes

1. Aaron Judge *
Yankees
2. Carlos Correa *
Cubs
3. Trea Turner *
Dodgers
4. Xander Bogaerts *
Phillies
5. Dansby Swanson *
Twins
6. Carlos Rodon *
Red Sox
7. Jacob deGrom *
Mets
8. Justin Verlander *
Astros
9. Brandon Nimmo *
Mets
10. Willson Contreras *
Cardinals
11. Kodai Senga *
Rangers
12. Josh Bell *
Astros
13. Chris Bassitt *
Padres
14. Jameson Taillon *
Angels
15. Andrew Benintendi *
Tigers
16. Taijuan Walker *
Giants
17. Sean Manaea *
Orioles

18. Andrew Heaney *
Twins
19. Jose Abreu *
Mariners
20. Mitch Haniger *
Mariners
21. Noah Syndergaard *
Dodgers
22. Anthony Rizzo *
Yankees
23. Nathan Eovaldi *
Red Sox
24. Taylor Rogers *
Red Sox
25. J.D. Martinez *
Angels
26. Christian Vazquez *
Cubs
27. Kenley Jansen *
Rangers
28. Clayton Kershaw *
Dodgers
29. Rafael Montero *
Astros
30. Jose Quintana *
Tigers
31. Zach Eflin *
Royals
32. Carlos Estevez *
Braves
33. Jurickson Profar *
Braves
34. Joc Pederson *
Giants
35. Martin Perez *
Rangers
36. Tyler Anderson *
Dodgers
37. Brandon Drury *
White Sox
38. Ross Stripling *
Blue Jays
39. Andrew Chafin *
Red Sox
40. Jean Segura *
Braves
41. Michael Wacha *
Diamondbacks
42. David Robertson *
Phillies
43. Michael Brantley *
Astros
44. Michael Conforto *
Reds
45. Adam Ottavino *
Cardinals
46. Chris Martin *
Blue Jays
47. Justin Turner *
Brewers
48. Corey Kluber *
Diamondbacks
49. Mike Clevinger *
Blue Jays
50. Drew Rucinski *
Cubs

MOCK AWAY

is this WAR total?

(unsure if joke, but) the numbers in front of each name? they're just listed in the order of projected contract size on mlbtr (i think).

Oooooh

Such a sadly realistic vision of what the Orioles "going all in to win now" could look like

i forgot about michael conforto!

The Mets will too.

tyler anderson to the angels; thermo is 0-for-1

joc pederson & martin perez accepted qualifying offers; thermo 2-for-3

fortunately i can edit responses until tmrw. so i am about to be 3/3, but so is anyone else half paying attention. tho Anderson to Angels will effect some other pics. also i didn't mean to have two SP going to the Dbacks, so i'll edit that too.

so – I now have Taillon heading to the Giants, Walker to the Cardinals, Anderson to the Angels and Wacha to the Phillies

hmm teoscar hernandez traded from the blue jays to the mariners?

For Erik Swanson and Adam Macko, two pitchers--didn't see that coming.

https://ca.yahoo.com/sports/news/mariners-reportedly-trade-for-all-star-outfielder-teoscar-hernandez-161420530.html

do you think one of the three jays catchers might be traded this off-season?

Seems to be almost a certainty. My initial guess was Jansen, but they seem pretty happy with their platoon and supposedly it's Moreno who they're looking to trade.

what do think they're they looking for in return? starting pitching? that seems like a constant need for every team. i know the cardinals system pretty well and am willing to broker a deal with mozeliak

actually i just looked moreno up in some more detail and i am thinking it would take an amazing prospect dump in order to land Moreno, esp with his service time still less then a year. i don't think this is going to work. i will have to tell mo

Always starting pitching, yeah. We've got two solid starters, maybe three (not totally convinced that Stripling will repeat), maybe four (who knows with Berrios). We need a reliable 4.00 ERA, R.A. Dickey-type at the back end.

Do what you can, KM.

We need a reliable 4.00 ERA, R.A. Dickey-type at the back end.

quintana might be a good choice for that, as a free agent. it seems like he really re-found his stuff last year, and even at more median kind of projection he's still an innings-eater

Stripling is a free agent! i'm hoping they can resign, but right now we have two reliable starters plus Berrios.
also, i really don't like the Hernandez deal.

I don't either, after looking at the two guys. Swanson was great last year, but it was his first good season. Macko, unless I'm missing something, doesn't look like an especially promising prospect.

Forgot about Stripling's free agency.

I can see the case for trading Teoscar--they got him for a washed-up Francisco Liriano, he's about to turn 30, and he's declined the last two seasons--I just wish they would have gotten more.

Actually, he turned 30 last month.

So the Mets/yankees are being investigated for some possible free agent shenanigans over judge!
(I doubt much comes of it tbh)

The Hernandez deal makes total sense to me, cool player to have in that one peak season, but probably not so much in any season going forward imo. I don’t know what his defense is like but seems like a fairly one-dimensional hitter.

I’d definitely say he’s more than a one season fluke. He seemed to figure something out in 2020 - his OPS+ the last three years has been 135. He’s not such a great defender tho.

gio urshela to the angles

So weird to see passan breaking the news on Instagram

Dodgers To Non-Tender Cody Bellinger.

Shocked, as I thought they would have kept him around and they can afford it.

Grant Brisbee thought the giants would take him if the Dodgers didn’t want him

I read the Blue Jays were interested too, under the premise he'd hit well at Rogers Centre. I'll take the blame if he lands in Toronto.

aaron judge needs his own thread

https://dodgerblue.com/cody-bellinger-rumors-toronto-blue-jays-interested-teams-if-dodgers-non-tender/2022/11/18/

Remember when Bellinger and Yelich were 1-2 in the mvp voting?

Someone on Reddit pointed out that Bellinger will probably want more playing time than the jays can guarantee. Makes sense for a less competitive team to take a flier and let him sink or swim in cf more than a team like the jays would.

was wondering why the brewers would trade Renfroe for three guys that look kinda like spare parts... then saw their outfield depth chart... three top 100 outfield prospects and another couple backup options after that!!

As much as I would prefer that Judge stays with the Yankees--just because I like such antiquated concepts as "face of the franchise" and players staying with one team for their career--if he leaves, I'll enjoy thinking about all those NY cretins who booed him in the playoffs.

he got boo'd in the playoffs?!

Tbh i’m a little curious if the hair shit/NYY CULTURE OF WINNING redassery is clocked by the players or not

(xpost) Definitely for a game or two in Yankee Stadium--scattered but audible.

xp i expect that the players who care are into it. guys like brett gardner and, apparently, anthony rizzo live for that shit

Fun predictions-style article: one big off-season move for each team:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/35047269/mlb-2022-23-free-agency-offseason-moves-all-30-teams

not-quite-37yo carlos santana to the pirates, one year/$6.7m

Big splash by their standards

their biggest free-agent signing since 2016 lol

Had to look it up….
Daniel Hudson. 2 years, 11m.

looking like jose abreu to the astros. as a white sox fan it's a bummer, though they do have andrew vaughn to put at 1b and a bunch of dudes who should probably just be DHing

oh and the white sox signed mike clevinger to a 1-yr deal

Astros yet again endearing themselves to baseball fans everywhere.

If the Dodgers land Verlander--Dodgers yet again endearing themselves to baseball fans everywhere--they will have had Kershaw, Scherzer, Verlander, and Greinke within a seven-year window. Damn, they should have planned to have them all at once.

the white Sox not immediately having a replacement first baseman who seems primed to take over for the next decade or so is a strange feeling. Maybe I’m not giving Andrew Vaughn enough credit tho.

I think he could do alright

Is he still available to pinch-hit?

(Oops...mixed up threads, was referring to Mattingly!)

That makes a lot more sense

DeGrom's going to the Rangers, apparently.

What the fuck

i'd have liked to see him remain a met but man that is a big gamble on a 34yo dude who seems to have 'forearm tightness' every spring

guess i should simply be happy that the rangers are still out there spending incredible amounts of money for dudes in their 30s

5 years, $185M. I hope they remember to have him take a physical first.

also lol scherzer is like the only starter the mets have under contract

Lmao Bochy?!

Ya I was not expecting 5 years

Just found out about this 37AAV over five years. Can't believe anyone would go that long on him.

The half billion dollar infield was not enough

God bless them for going for it, but I don’t see much of a strategy here outside of splashing money about randomly

If DeGrom is healthy that contract is potentially a steal, but that’s the biggest “if” I can recall attached to such a huge deal.

The last three years he’s averaged 13 starts and a WAR of 2.8. Short of a miracle, there’s no way he comes close to providing the value they’re paying him for

It will be interesting to know what other offers were on the table, or perhaps the Rangers were bidding against themselves as they seem to do quite often.

I would be surprised if the Mets didn’t go at least 3 years

Mets apparently offered 3 years/$120Mish

Verlander is supposedly going to the Mets, $86M for two years. Wow. Have to think about whether they came out ahead on that swap or not.

I guess we’ll see if his ERA drops below 1 next year!

wonder if Houston didn't even come close with a competitive offer. they've had a curious offseason, in terms of decision-making.

Such a unique comparison: DeGrom, this historically great pitcher who just can't stay healthy coming off his age-34 season, vs. a HOF pitcher coming off a Cy Young but who'll turn 40 in a couple of months and is one season removed from Tommy John surgery. And then you factor in the five-year deal vs. the two-year deal...confusing!

Astros owner 100% high on his own supply

Great deal/virtual swap for the Mets if Scherzer and Verlander stay healthy.

I love DeGrom but giving him five years guaranteed was nuts.

Phillies sign Trea Turner for 11/300

Stove is hot today. 11 years is a long time but I guess they aren't worried about the last few.

Correa to the Giants or that is my wish out of all of this.

Have the giants done anything so far?

I assume they're too busy courting Judge and don't have time for other deals?

If they get Judge then I think they'll go one more big one. Correa make too much sense.
Everything after Judge tho. If they don't get Judge then they could scale down.

so Turner left $42 million on the table to play for the Phillies over the Padres. i assume he wanted to make sure he would be playing SS?!

i think the prevailing theory is that he wants to be on the east coast... apparently when the nats were shopping him he asked to stay on the east coast

Why did San Diego go after Turner when they have Tatis? Baseball money is out of hand. Just glad my team is major market.

I think they don't like Tatis's SS defense and want to move him to CF maybe

^^^

rangers signed Heaney to a 2 year deal. comes with opt-out and (apparently) $15 mil in potential bonuses. the rangers are really rolling the dice this offseason!

Last piece of the puzzle: they bring Rougned Odor back.

maybe there's some sort of baton the rangers can come up with that heaney and degrom can pass to each other as they go on and off the DL

Verlander might very well throw more innings in the two years of his contract then DeGrom will throw in the five of his.

I mean people are joking that Diaz might throw more innings tbh

josh bell to cleveland, two years, $33m

reports are starting to come out saying Judge is signing with the giants.

I'll be bowling tonight with a huge Giants fan (how huge? he thought Lincecum was going to go into the HOF) who doesn't like Aaron Judge. Something tells me he may come around.

$360M for 10 years, which would take him into his age-40 season. It's like Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera never happened (and, great as he was last year, Judge doesn't really start at their level).

Not sure this is actually confirmed yet, the report is being walked back by Heyman

xp lmao I’m sorry but you were hyping Judge like crazy all year!

Bellinger to Cubs, supposedly

Breaking: Cody Bellinger and the Chicago Cubs are in agreement on a one-year, $17.5 million contract, sources tell @JeffPassan. pic.twitter.com/oRoKx76xq8

— ESPN (@espn) December 6, 2022

they needed the new jason heyward

That’s a lot of money for some dude who hit, what, like .206? The Ricketts aren’t serious people. They’ve got their cash cows/fan appeasement working just like they want.

xp lmao I’m sorry but you were hyping Judge like crazy all year!

Everything's relative, right? He's not first-decade Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera.

Actually, he's got a better career OPS+ right now than either Cabrera's first 10 seasons, or his first 13 (Cabrera's last great year). Surprised...staying in the lineup's another issue. (Pujols' OPS+ is better by about 10 points through a decade.)

AJ’s defense and baserunning edge is no small factor. Cabrera is a first ballot hall guy but he’s never had a season as good as Judge’s rookie year or last year, which is the catch; Cabrera was durable and Judge…well the jury is out on his health for the next few years.

_xp lmao I’m sorry but you were hyping Judge like crazy all year!_

Everything's relative, right? He's not first-decade Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera.

On pin and needles

Here comes Haniger ✍️

The #SFGiants have agreed to terms with OF Mitch Haniger pic.twitter.com/3T6PIBKVzh

— SFGiants (@SFGiants) December 7, 2022

Good, they do need two outfielders. I want Correa.

If only generational greats matter then why follow the game at all?

What on earth are you talking about? You seem to be conflating two things that have nothing to do with each other. Yes, I was really excited about Judge last season; that did not imply that I thought some team should go out and sign him for some obscene amount of money that would carry him through to his age-40 season. And to underscore that, I brought up Pujols and Cabrera.

David Price retired won't pitch in 2023.

AJ’s defense and baserunning edge is no small factor. Cabrera is a first ballot hall guy but he’s never had a season as good as Judge’s rookie year or last year

Cabrera didn't really get going till his third season, and that also gives Judge an edge. There are a couple of Cabrera seasons I'd take over Judge's rookie year, including his TC season, but yeah, Judge last year beats every Cabrera season (even every Pujols season by OPS+). But you'd think teams would look to those two guys on the back end of their contracts before opening up the vault for Judge.

taijuan walker to the phillies, 4 years, $72m

Source confirms: Aaron Judge in agreement with Yankees, nine years, $360M. First: @JonMorosi.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 7, 2022

love the deal, might not be a great one in 2029 but that’s a problem for 2029 me

Looking forward to him being great again

Great. Over-extended, of course, but a) he's where he should be, b) they clearly had no choice if they wanted to re-sign him, and c) money's meaningless to the Yankees anyway, so he won't become an albatross to some other team that really can't afford him.

Aaron Judge flew into San Diego at the last minute to decide among three teams: the New York Yankees, the San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres. The Yankees bumped their offer to nine years and $360 million, and in the end, Judge decided he wanted to remain a Yankee.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 7, 2022

Didn't know San Diego was in the mix--can't say that Judge/Machado/Tatis wouldn't have been something to see.

Ah well, at least we don’t have to listen to 2.5 years of speculation about whether he can break the NL record

Went back and checked, and the extension he turned down before the season started was ~210M/7 years; I know there's more math involved, but in the simplest version, this contract nets him an extra 150M/2 years.

Good for him, I says.

did jeter (or mattingly) actually wear a C like a hockey captain? because it has been suggested that judge will

https://i.imgur.com/EYOpdGY.jpg

Cheugy ass franchise

I had to decompress plus the excellent Police poll. Not landing Judge could actually be a blessing in disguise, I'm fine with a low level approach, with or without Correa. Farhan Zaidi knows what he is doing but the farm system needs to start producing.

Bogaerts to the Padres, 11 years 280M? Can't say that the Padres aren't trying this winter.

lol the red sox are all like TAKE OUR MONEY and the only one paying attention is kenle_y

Jeter definitely wore the C, I remember it

I tried googling this and turned up nothing except this a arm patch which says captain
https://s.hdnux.com/photos/61/15/05/12898663/8/1200x0.jpg

It’s no electrical tape C

The Captain? pic.twitter.com/Er67nkoWV9

— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) September 10, 2021

Maybe he included the C with his gift baskets

weird. mandela effect??

It seems like the kind of thing he’d do though right?

James and Posnanski both wrote about the Red Sox yesterday (well, Posnanski was actually writing about Judge):

James - "My reasons for wanting Xander back with the Red Sox don't have too much to do with winning. They can win with Xander; if they spend the same money on some other star, they'll be as likely to win. But Xander is the captain of all the class acts. Something there you can't replace."

Posnanski: "And yet this team dickered around with Judge, lowballed him ($213 million for seven years), then bizarrely made their bad offer public. I still don’t know what the Yankees were thinking on that one. They said that they went public for “transparency purposes,” which you know is a whole lot of hooey. My best guess is they did it to mildly embarrass Judge for not accepting so much money … maybe they thought that would bring him back to the negotiating table. My second-best guess is they did it to show their fans that they really did make a good-faith effort … you know, in case Judge left.*

*This, I think, was the Red Sox strategy before they shamefully let Mookie Betts go. I don’t have any inside information here, but I honestly don’t think the Red Sox made a serious offer to keep Betts. I think they made various lowball offers and when Betts turned those down, what do you know, whispers suddenly circulated that Betts wanted out and that he wouldn’t sign with the Red Sox at any price. Then, voila, the Red Sox traded him so they could get under the luxury tax threshold. “It’s just business,” Betts says. “It is what it is.”

...I mentioned at the top that there’s a lesson here. And it’s a delightful one: DO NOT TRY TO SHORTCHANGE YOUR MARQUEE PLAYERS."

Machado, Bogarts, and Tatis: not as rock-star euphonious as Betts, Bogarts, and Ortiz, but they should be quite formidable.

Thanks I hate it

it’s Bogaerts by the way

I think I've been misspelling that for years.

Baggarly writes about the Giants side of the Judge trade:

Not at any point during a two-day summit that could’ve taught a timeshare agent a thing or two about the art of the hard sell. Not when his parents, Wayne and Patty, drove into the city from the Central Valley to dine with top club executives in the ballpark’s Gotham Club. Not when they saw the look on Judge’s face as a curtain parted and Rich Aurilia, his favorite player while growing up, made a surprise entrance.

None of it felt forced or perfunctory. His parents didn’t make a token appearance, excuse themselves, and get halfway across the Bay Bridge before dessert. The two retired schoolteachers stayed deep into the night, charmed Giants officials with their wholesomeness and then politely declined the offer of a hotel room for the night.

This would be a family decision for Judge and his wife, Samantha. You do not ride a stalking horse in a homecoming parade.

But the Giants also knew what they were up against. They understood what it meant for Judge to continue to build his legacy in New York, where he’d just hit more home runs in a season than Babe Ruth or Roger Maris or anyone else who ever wore Yankee pinstripes. The Giants understood where the money would go and that didn’t deter them from presenting themselves as a legitimate destination for Judge to mash baseballs throughout his thirtysomething years.

But they knew this was not a player who could be bought. He was a player who needed to be sold.

At just after 5 a.m. Wednesday, Giants president Farhan Zaidi was awakened from whatever shallow somnolence his jangles of adrenaline had allowed him to enter. He could hear his cell phone buzzing on the nightstand. Before he could adjust his eyes, he understood what his screen would tell him.

“You’re probably not going to get a yes in a 5 a.m. text,” Zaidi said.

willson contreras to the cards, one of my favorite players to one of my least favorite teams, ugh.

i missed that the cubs signed jameson taillon

mets and phils in all out war to see who can get the most jan 6 indictments on their 40 man rosters https://t.co/u8baAjRa68

— express written consent haver (@KenRosenthot) December 7, 2022

Machado, Bogarts, and Tatis: not as rock-star euphonious as Betts, Bogarts, and Ortiz, but they should be quite formidable.

Don’t forget Soto

i gotta say that's going to be one good-looking team and i don't mean their batting averages

You don’t mean Cubs do you

(xxpost) I did, embarrassingly enough, twice in this thread. (Doesn't quite work in the context of the joke, but no one under 60's going to get that anyway.) Which would have made Judge-Machado-Soto-Tatis just about the most fearsome quartet since who knows what.

no the Padres!

xpost

thank you for bringing this to my attention.

(I was hoping you meant the Cubs though, you know, considering.)

https://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/embed/public/2018/08/16/gettyimages-1017376680_0.jpg

https://mlb.nbcsports.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2019/07/gettyimages-1155005755-e1563138045132.jpg

https://www.yardbarker.com/media/2/4/2420fb8830c99fe6c83d68405075773d2429e2ff/thumb_16x9/13110857.jpg?v=1

https://i1.wp.com/defpen.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/chin091014soxorioles_spt22.jpg?w=960

they're going to be the fuckin Beatles of baseball man. crazy lineup.

the beatles also used performance-enhancing drugs

god bless those boys

jeff passan story about the bogaerts signing had an anon quote from a red sox front office guy saying that they aren't going to give out 10 year deals because those contracts don't work out for teams. which i think everyone agrees with! but it also feels weird to see the red sox be run this way.

also based on the turner & bogaerts contracts it looks like teams are maybe looking at a hockey-ish model of super long years to lessen the AAV of these deals. the rangers seem to be the one team still handing out these early 2010s style contracts to FAs

machado has and seems likely to use an opt-out after next season, which no doubt had a bearing on the padres going after bogaerts

saw it claimed somewhere that the sox offer to him was under $200m (!)

The suspense is killing me slightly discomfiting me re: Dansby. I can't help but feel (without evidence) he's peaked and the Barves would be better served with a good-enough SS and a big push on LF improvement. (If they've already done something about LF plz ignore.)

can't imagine what Correa is going to get, being two years younger and better than Bogaerts. Swanson is sort of the poor man's Bogaerts, he's not bad if you need a SS but he worries me yeah. I think the Cubs will land one of those guys, I'd prefer it to be Correa for sure.

Honestly don’t see the Twins reaching deep enough to bring back Correa. It’s probably Swanson or someone more replacement level (the consensus is the braves aren’t bringing him back, no?)

dansby's coming off a big season and he's a good player, but also his career wRC+ is 94. i don't see him getting a deal anywhere near bogaerts/correa/turner level

was surprised to see Correa's career bWAR as high as it is, considering how much time he's missed, but per 162 games he's averaging 7.2 -- which is way above the likes of Machado and Harper and some others.

Just to cheer up tracer hand:

Chaim Bloom inherited 27 year old Mookie, 27 YO Bogaerts, 25 YO Benintendi, and 23 YO Devers and so far has turned them into:

Alex Verdugo
Jeter Downs
Connor Wong
Franchy Cordero
Josh Winckowski
Grant Gambrell
Luis De La Rosa
Freddy Valdez

Devers still here, but not extended

— Michael Dyer (@Mike_Dyer13) December 8, 2022

devers will hit free agency next winter having just turned 27

bloom is the leonardo dicaprio of GMs, all his serious relationships have to be terminated by age 27

saw it claimed somewhere that the sox offer to him was under $200m (!)

― mookieproof, Thursday, December 8, 2022 12:52 PM (seven hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

I mean, is this really so insulting? we will see how good a 30 year old SS with an average glove and average power looks in 5 years…then in 11 years

dunno about insulting -- i just think it's notable that their offer wasn't even in the same ballpark, so to speak, as san diego's

saw a quote today (from farhan zaidi i think) to the effect that if you act rationally about free agents, you'll always finish third in getting them. there are no prizes for financial efficiency

Bogaerts has had a couple of superstar level seasons but mostly I want to say he’s felt maybe just a little disappointing, at least over the last couple years. he made leaps in 2018 and 2019 but seems to have taken a step back.

Not that he is anything other than a good shortstop but it really is going to be interesting to see how this contract looks in a few years.

tbf all the contracts are going to look bad in a few years. someone pointed out that judge's deal is basically the same as prince albert's deal with the angels, adjusted for inflation/increased revenue

but hey, it's not my money

One difference w judge I think is he’s coming off his best season (and one of the best hitting seasons in recent memory) while pujols signed the deal after the first season of his decline phase. I mean looking back on that final year with the Cardinals, red flags were all there.

Admittedly judge maybe just be signing before the first season of his decline phase but he’s in better shape than Albert was. I want to believe. 🛸

Nimmo, 8 years 162 million.

Good lord

happy for him but yeah

Nimmo's deal reminds me of Jayson Werth's with the Nationals about ten years ago, at a time when people thought 4-5 WAR outfielders were the new market inefficiency.

Nimmo is a good player but he’s also turning thirty soon, how much better do they think he’ll get? The deal makes sense if he was in his mid-twenties and they were trying to lock him down.

definitely seems like the trend this offseason is players getting (over)paid. pretty much every deal has been high. otoh life is more expensive in general now

The money seems kind of meaningless if you start to think about it. It’s a boring rant but I still can’t normalize stuff where people hold out for an extra $125 Million and it comes across as being justified.

I mean a lot of right thinking teams have their core kids locked up for eternity that FA money is going to go somewhere

minor league deal with the dodgers for jason heyward. is kyle hendricks the last cub standing from the 2016 world series team?

Senga to the Mets.

Pretty crazy the amount of spending they are doing but they did basically have their entire starting rotation / bullpen on an expiring deal. I also assume some of this was supposed to be Degrom money.

I can’t recite the exact numbers - but what they’re going to be paying in luxury tax is larger than some teams payrolls!

i wasn't thrilled with the willson contreras signing at the time. 5 years for a catcher in his 30s who is likely to play more at DH in the last few years of the contract

but i can see how it was the best of several options. i think most fans were hoping for a trade for sean murphy, or a blue jays catcher. the trade proposal for murphy reportedly was lars nootbaar, brendan donovan, and gordon graceffo (#3 SP prospect ETA 2023/24). 2 starting position players that could be sleeper all-star candidates + one of the best pitching prospect in the system for a team that will lose 4/5th of the rotation after 2023. that seems steep, but given the free agent market and player valuation trends this offseason, maybe that's just how it is? i don't know.

and on the free agent side, you see these 11-year deals and nimmo making bank and suddenly 5-years for an older catcher starts to look like a deal!

With what’s happened in the FA market, Contreras was a pretty solid deal.

You know how poker players have "tells"? MLB.com has one too: when they start posting pieces about Old Hoss Radbourn, that's a tell that awards are over and off-season player movement is about to slow down.

https://www.mlb.com/news/old-hoss-radbourn-unbreakable-baseball-records

Lotta moves this winter. Wasn't it just last year that people were like, who's going to blink first? The players or the owners, who aren't signing anyone? Well they are now. I'm going to need a cheat sheet to remember who everybody plays for. Feels like a kind of post-COVID reset for a lot of teams.

i forget the exact timeline but there was the lockout last offseason, too, basically from early December 2021 to early March. i don't remember the exact rules for trades and FA stuff, but i think most of it wasn't allowed during that time period.

Many of the big name free agents signed before the lockout (Scherzer, Semien, Seager). Once the lockout ended there was a rush to sign everyone who was left.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-refresher-pre-lockout-signings-hirings-and-moves-you-may-have-forgotten-as-baseball-returns/

The freeze in signings was more from the 2019-2020 offseasons, when the owners were essentially gearing up to screw over the players as much as possible before the inevitable work stoppage.

There's still Correa:

https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-rumors

I've lost all context as to the meaning of "massive" at this point.

Bassitt to jays; murphy to barves

that murphy trade was pretty complicated. three teams and nine players (OAK, MIL, and ATL), and somehow the brewers received the second-best Will* Contreras (William, who may outhit Willson this year) along with pitching depth in exchange for Esteury Ruiz

it's really puzzling how the brewers ended up w/ contreras i really don't get it... i wonder if the teams have diff statistical models than what is publicly available that devalue him or something bcuz otherwise i can't really get my head around it

Contreras not yet 25 years old and seems to have a shot at being the better Contreras offensively as Karl noted, it seems at best an even trade (with Murphy being 3 1/2 years older too.) Braves gave up six players to get him, am I reading that right?

https://i.imgur.com/u8kJr8j.png

yes. i thought for sure they got someone else in return, in addition to murphy. but no.

also, what's weird is that imo catching was already a position of strength for the braves? they had william c but also they still have travis d'Arnoud, who was a top 10 catcher, maybe even top 5, last year? i don't know, maybe there's some platoon shit i'm not thinking of from the braves perspective

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/three-teams-nine-players-one-surprising-winner-examining-the-sean-murphy-blockbuster/

it is weird but it sounds like murphy is a better all-around catcher than contreras or d'arnad

i feel like the brewers were just standing there grabbing a free william contreras for some reason!

i'm glad the contreras brothers will be playing in the same division, though, i suppose the schedule for 2023 makes that less notable than it once was

no idea how they came up with these numbers but it doesn’t *feel* unreasonable

As reported, today's three-team deal:

ATL: Sean Murphy, $51.3M median trade value

MIL: William Contreras, $37.3M; Payamps, $0.0M; Yeager, not yet in system

OAK: Muller, $7.1M; Ruiz, $4.9M; Salinas, $2.5M; Tarnok, $2.2M; Piña, -$2.6M ($14.3M total)

Deal rejected by the model.

— Baseball Trade Values (@BaseballValues) December 12, 2022

also ross stripling to the braves, two years but with an opt-out after one

(who was the first player to get a deal with an opt-out?)

sorry i meant stripling to the GIANTS

was it a-rod?

​Boras also negotiated the first such opt-out clause, inserting it into Alex Rodriguez’s landmark $252 million deal with the Rangers in December 2000.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2016/03/07/opt-out-clause-contract-david-price-jason-heyward

ah, of course it was a boras thing

My god. Correa signed. This off-season…

350 million/13 years

Correa's going to the Giants; $350M/13 years.

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/carlos-correa-13-year-deal-san-francisco-giants-1.1892986

Monster deal, not massive as reported earlier.

The length of some of these deals is just wild

40's the new 27.

All three big FA short stops signed deals until they’re 40! Correa is the most valuable of the three, but I think earning slightly less avg than Turner, but two more years.

The Giants have been getting absolutely hammered in the press here so I'm not surprised they overreacted. Correa is very good of course.

yeah I wonder if the Giants missing out on Judge helped get Correa more money in the end.

It’s also Brandon Crawford’s last contract year and he’ll be 36 next year, they needed a long term replacement. I guess they’ll move him somewhere else (2nd or 3rd?)

hasn't been too much buzz around swanson

not surprised; figured he'd be the plan-b for all the teams that didn't land one of the big 3 SS.

No results found for “Swanson’s swan song for the Braves has already been played”

braves would def take him back, the price tag will likely be too steep tho

Nostalgic for the Nov 2022 me who thought the Orioles were serious when they said they were going to sign a front-line starting pitcher

Me, the Ghost of Orioles Future: "They mean Kyle Gibson"

The length of some of these deals is just wild

― omar little, Wednesday, December 14, 2022 12:14 AM (eleven hours ago)

def appears to be a concerted effort by these teams to lengthen out the deals to lessen the AAV... i think primarily for luxury tax purposes? if you had told ppl a few years ago that these guys would be signing for less than $30m per year you'd have been called crazy but clearly there is some new strategy w/ these kinda deals. no idea if it's smart or not

making albatross contracts a problem for the next GM. maybe seeing more of this now that front office staff move around more often*?

*not sure even if this is true

Also in 13 years, $30 million might not even be a remarkable AAV in the baseball world

i was thinking about matt adams this morning, for some reason, and saw that he wasn't in MLB in 2022just now i saw he signed a minor contract deal with the Nats. he spent 2022 with the Kansas City Monarchs of the American Association (independent ball). guess who else starred on the 2022 Monarchs?

PETE KOZMA

currently batting .300 for the perth heat in pursuit of the CLAXTON SHIELD

STAYING HOT 🔥

Pete Kozma punches a single down to center field, going two for three at the plate!

Josh Reddick comes home to score the Heat's second run of the game#PerthHeat#ABL23 pic.twitter.com/sYFbceLzHB

— Australian Baseball League (@ABL) December 9, 2022

Pete Kozma punches a single down to center field, going two for three at the plate!

Josh Reddick comes home to score the Heat's second run of the game

this seems like a game update straight from Out of the Park Baseball, i love it

Australia you have no idea how much heat Pete Kozma is going to bring. you will rue the day that you ever heard his name!!

I'm just sitting here saying "Perth Heat" in my imitation of an Australian accent again and again, can't stop

Some of you probably saw that Josh Reddick tweet last week where he was (implicitly but clearly) deriding the money Cody Bellinger got.

he had a point! but bellinger's ceiling is MVP and reddick's was not

Just found out about the Correa deal. 13 years is insane but seems to be a new trend. I'm just happy the Giants didn't strike out. They're a big market team and had to act like it.

Free agent hitters don't want to come to San Francisco because of their ballpark. I hope this changes that narrative.

Correa to the Giants or that is my wish out of all of this.

― Bee OK, Monday, December 5, 2022

Got my wish

What’s the issue with the park?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-teams-issuing-extremely-long-contracts/

i am too dumb to make any sense of this

What’s the issue with the park?

ESPN's MLB Park Factors lists Oracle Park as having the fewest home runs per game 6 out of the past 7 years, the one exception coming in 2013, when it was the 3rd lowest.

Oh. I don’t know why, but I always thought of it as a small park!

i don't think it's a size issue (though the fences get quite deep in left center, center, and right center) as much as it is that the weather in SF and the location of the stadium on the water depresses homers

The gaps are deep

It is a size issue as well, though they have made some changes that reduce some of the outfield sizes a bit:

In December 2019 the Giants announced plans to move the bullpens from the field to behind the center field fence. Prior to the 2020 season the bullpens were located down the first and third base lines. This move reduced the dimensions of the outfield fences in left-center field from 404 feet to 399 and in center field from 399 feet to 391 feet. It reduced the seating capacity by approximately 650 seats.

415-RC

aka “triples alley”

https://www.mlb.com/news/giants-triples-alley-origins

Yeah you see stuff in home games there that’s probably a homer in a ton of other parks! There’s a reason there’s only been 95 splash hits (into McCovey cove) in 22 years!

yeah, i just spent a long time trying to make a post comparing park factors and how correa might have fared in Oracle in 2022, rather than at Target Field (as well as judge, for comparison). park factors are a useful concept but they are very messy to apply to specific hitters. you can imagine a hitter like judge whose HRs are typically long enough that they'd be HRs in most any park, versus a weaker player (which is all of the, i guess!) who might barely eek out a HR in a hitter-friendly park and would instead be hitting long fly ball outs in a pitcher's park.

i prefer to use the statcast version (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors) just because you can also take into consideration the handedness of the hitters, which is more important in some fields (the short porch in RF in yankee stadium, eg) than others, and because it also uses a running 3-year rolling average to help smooth out the variability.

for individual hitters, an even better option might be statcast's Expected Home Runs by Park, which applies real life stadium dimensions, wind, elevation, wall-height, etc, to a particular player's home runs. it leads to unexpected results, sometimes, compared to park factors. for example, using park factors alone, you would think that correa's HRs would be negatively affected by a move to Oracle. he hit 22 HRs in 2022 while playing home games at Target Park, which has a below-average HR park factor. you'd think that since Oracle has an even lower HR park factor, he would have hit fewer HRs if he had played in SF in 2022. but...no. Expected Home Runs by Park shows that Correa would have hit 23 HRs, rather than 22, if he had played all of his games at Oracle (https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/carlos-correa-621043?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#xhr-park). Judge would have hit 61 HRs if he played all of his games at Oracle (vs 73 HRs at the Reds stadium, or at Coors)

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/new-york-yankees-carlos-rodon-six-year-162-million-deal-1.1893940

It's like one of those games of checkers where you just take turns jumping over each other--gain one, lose one.

From a Giants fan prospective. Comparing Gausman last year and Rondon this year.

After watching just about every start in Gausman's Giants history I understood passing on him. The teams in the NL West, especially the Dodgers, figured him out towards the end of the second year. Going to be interesting to see if history repesr itself this year. He recovered somewhat in the Wild Card round but wholeheartedly understand passing on resigning him.

Rondon is different animal and an ace. Losing out on this one hurts.

It wasn't the Wild Card, it was the Divisional best of five.

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2517069

Not to single out one guy, but rather to look at him as a symbol for the whole off-season.

Benintendi's career highs:

HR - 20
RBI - 90
slash (best in each category, full season) - .304/.373/.465
OPS+ - 123
bWAR - 4.8
MVP votes - 0 (he did finish runner-up for ROY)
age - 28 on opening day

still more reasonable than the nimmo deal!

he's not as good as nimmo, but he's a year younger and $15m/yr doesn't seem crazy out of line for a 2-3 WAR player

meanwhile, this is still true

Largest free agent deals in Pittsburgh Pirates history: Francisco Liriano (3y/$39 million), Ivan Nova (3y/$26 million), Russell Martin (2y/$17 million).

— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) February 19, 2019

also, yikes

Eric Hosmer, whose entire contract is being paid by the #Padres, is designated for assignment by the Boston Red Sox

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 16, 2022

Why don't you pay *us* to play?

btw the red sox lost three guys in the rule 5 draft last week, *then* decided to dfa hosmer and jeter downs. doesn't seem like great management

my estimation of bloom - and sure, ownership, too, because some of the big-picture stuff smells like ownership - really couldn't sink much lower at this point. i honestly wouldn't be surprised if they fail to secure devers.

dansbae to the cubs, 7 years, $177m, full no-trade clause.

(coughs)

Huh.

The 4 big free agent shortstops — Correa, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson — signed for $1.107 billion.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 17, 2022

The new Mendoza Line.

btw the red sox lost three guys in the rule 5 draft last week, *then* decided to dfa hosmer and jeter downs. doesn't seem like great management

yeah but the Downs one doesn't give them an open spot on the 40-man - they hadn't officially signed Yoshida yet, he's taking that spot.

j.d. martinez to the dodgers 1yr/$10m, which seems odd to me as i thought he had a never-ending series of player options with the red sox

and the pirates sent a message to the league that they really mean business by signing catcher austin hedges, a 30yo with a career .189/.247/.331 (54 wRC+) line. he's been worth exactly 0.0 bWAR in his eight-year career, and -1.3 bWAR over his last four seasons. a steal, at 1yr/$5m, because supposedly pitchers love working with him!

justin turner to boston, 2yrs/$22m

advantageous in that he'll be able to play third after the sox trade devers for 11 shitty prospects and one fourth outfielder

i had a feeling Martinez would go to a NL team, did not expect Turner to the BoSox tho

matt carpenter signs a 2-year, $12M deal with the Padres! (one guaranteed year and then a player option year for 2024). i loved being completely wrong on carpenter after 2021. i thought he was cooked, for real.

the rangers have strange ideas about how to manage their roster. they signed carpenter to a low expectations minor league deal last year, and he hit .275/.379/.613 in 21 games in AAA. then they released him. then he immediately went to the yankees and continued tearing it up for the rest of the season (until he got injured). it's odd because, what is the outcome they were wanting from him in AAA? he exceeded all expectations during his time there, and while it was only 21 games and you could argue about wanting to see a slightly larger sample before promoting him, why would you release him? especially on the fucking rangers, lol

andrew benintendi to the white sox, 5 yrs/$75 million

which makes sense, and i know that they were looking at trading for him at different times in the past couple of seasons, but it also feels like they could use a reliable slugger

yup. Benintendi was discussed a little upthread

Breaking: Carlos Correa and the Mets have a deal. $315M, 12 years.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 21, 2022

what the fuck

Whoa, this is actually real. The deal with the Giants fell apart due to problems with his physical.

A lot of FA deals are "pending a physical" but I can't remember one that actually fell through because of it. Certainly not one as big as this.

levels of "what the fuck" here:

- giants postponing the signing announcement and then the mets swooping in before anyone knew the deal had officially fallen apart
- mets adding another mega contract and pushing their total payroll with tax to like half a billion dollars
- mets signing him to play 3B when much of his value comes from being a good SS and he's never played 3B at any level
- 3 in the morning

- no one knows what the problem with the physical was

holy hell!

!!

Carlos Correa leaving the Giants medical office after “failing his physical.” pic.twitter.com/5viPoDxn0H

— Paul Sanchez (@PAlberto_EXE) December 20, 2022

lol

big willy wonka somersault energy

geniune lols there

I also love the unintentional humour in this NY Post article, I'm just imagining Steve Cohen closing this deal from his deck chair in Hawaii:

https://nypost.com/2022/12/21/carlos-correa-agrees-to-12-year-315-million-deal-with-mets/

omg what

This seems like it could be a heel turn for Cohen. Like all of the sudden next year MLB see decides there should be a limit to how much money a team can spend.

Can hardly believe this is real, honestly.

the fact that he took less money, especially as a boras client, to me implies that there was at least some merit to what the giants saw in the physical

Mets signing a player who just failed a physical to a monster contract: what could go wrong?

lol the Mets deal is also “pending a physical”

what the fuck!!

Think of how many people are going to be opening Carlos Correa Giants gear on Sunday.

— Sean Keane (@seankeane) December 21, 2022

it is time to bring back pete kozma on a 13-year deal

The overall numbers of the Mets’ spending spree continue to stagger. Assuming Correa’s contract pays him $26.25MM in each year of the deal, the Amazins’ payroll will now soar past the $377MM mark for 2023. Having already far surpassed the fourth and highest tier ($293MM) of Competitive Balance Tax penalties, New York is paying a 90% tax on every dollar spent beyond the $293MM threshold. That works out to roughly $23.62MM added to the Mets’ tax bill, thus putting their luxury tax number over $386MM.

It’s a neat trick to become the enemy of both the Dodgers and Giants

https://i.imgur.com/fSVeL3H.png

mets already have $262M on the payroll for 2024, too

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/breakdowns/payroll

All that fucking money and no WS titles since 1986? In that context, they can feel free to sneer more imo.

billionaires cant turn heel (they are heels by default) and/but i love that *anyone* is willing to show that the luxury tax is not the same thing as a cap

There’s gotta be a billionaire hedge fund manager who’s also a pirates fan, right? Feels like this situation could be replicated.

jimmy the mod otm, i hate when any mlb owner cries poverty (the boss was a tyrannical nutjob but at least we always new he wanted to win!)

*knew

warning: this guy is probably a gigantic asshole and possibly cannot be trusted

Per source: Carlos Correa's health insurance wouldn't cover his physical with the Giants. The Giants asked him to pay out of pocket and instead he decided to sign with the Mets when Steve Cohen offered to cover his Giants and Mets physicals.

— Mark Gooden (@TooGooden17) December 21, 2022

but is this true? he's a beat writer for the NYM and gets to vote for the HOF, but also, he writes for the fucking federalist, fucking gross man

but if that's true i don't...know wtf is going on anymore. would someone really blowup a 14 year contract and take ~$50M less on another one because of this?

No, that’s not true.

maaan, now i linked to twitter AND a guy from the federalist, AND it was wrong

christmas is ruined

all i can do is take a screenshot of this chart from fangraphs and hope that it brings as much joy to others as it did for me

https://i.imgur.com/SwPYrzA.png

Like all of the sudden next year MLB see decides there should be a limit to how much money a team can spend.

the owners already made that decision in 1994 and have maintained it ever since, fortunately they can't unilaterally impose their will on the players

I'm so depressed, fuck baseball and fuck the Mets.

There’s gotta be a billionaire hedge fund manager who’s also a pirates fan, right?

mark cuban is from pittsburgh. but he's also the kind of guy MLB owners would never let into their club

yeah as I understand it he tried to buy the Cubs like 10-15 years ago and they wouldn't let him

Move over, baby shoes, there's a new saddest short story in town: CORREA GIANTS JERSEY, NEVER WORN

— Emma Baccellieri (@emmabaccellieri) December 21, 2022

Even Cuban’s not rich enough to keep up with a Cohen

He also bid on the Rangers when Hicks went bankrupt.

Giants getting subtweeted by Gausman (and Logan Webb in the replies agreeing)

There is a fine line between dipping an Oreo for the perfect amount of time or having it break off into the milk. Sometimes in life you gotta take risks and be able to live with the consequences

— Kevin Gausman (@KevinGausman) December 22, 2022

There’s an Athletic article about this fuckup.

The organization entered a collective cone of silence. Messages weren’t returned. Players contacted via text said they had no idea what was happening. Neither did minority members of the ownership group, who hadn’t been briefed on the reason for the delay but remained optimistic that any minor or unforeseen snags would be overcome. If it’s a postponement, that means it’s still going to happen, right?

Instead, 15 minutes after news broke Dec. 13 that the Giants and Correa had agreed to terms, club president Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler called Crawford and informed the most accomplished shortstop in franchise history, a two-time World Series champion, a player who has made more Opening Day starts as a Giant than anyone other than Willie Mays and Barry Bonds, that he had to learn another position.

What do you tell Crawford now, especially after Correa agreed to play third base for the Mets — something the Giants didn’t seem to have the courtesy to ask of him?

Tbfttfsfg, Correa is only playing 3rd in NY cos Lindor is already shortstop there, no? They could at least have had that conversation before the trade went live, but this is the club where Bengie Molina found out he’d been traded by guys coming up to him in flight after seeing it on espn.

Here's the KNBR audio of Tolbert & Copes breaking the Carlos Correa news to Steve Young live on air. Definitely a top 10 funniest moment on KNBR. pic.twitter.com/hLS67WqYS3

— LOLKNBR (@LOLKNBR) December 22, 2022

reds have dfa’d mike moustakas, who is owed $18m in 2023 and a $4m buyout for 2024

in three seasons in cincy he hit .216/.300/.383 in 184 games for -1.8 bWAR while making ~$35m

at some point the "mooooooooooooooooos" turned into real "booooooooooooooooooo"s

Trevor Bauer’s initial 324-game suspension under MLB’s domestic violence policy has been reduced to 194 games by an arbitrator, ending a seven-month grievance process.

— Alden González (@Alden_Gonzalez) December 23, 2022

Dodgers are gonna drop him apparently… Does any team pick him up?!

If a team picks him up it’s for the ML minimum right?

this is bad news for the Dodgers right, because now they have to start paying him again?

Giants made their big move.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35310124/giants-michael-conforto-reach-2-year-36m-deal-sources-confirm

Signing the second Rogers twin clearly a move to confuse other teams, subterfuge and trickery in lieu of a franchise cornerstone.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fkqza6fUAAEhiiG?format=jpg&name=medium

hey, i mean the good news if you're a giants fan is that clearly the team is willing to offer gigantic contracts, and next year shohei ohtani will hit free agency.

I don’t know how much Ohtani would desire to stay in OC but I gotta say the Angels would be insane not to try and keep him somehow. Understanding of course they have a fair amount correctly committed to Trout, and a fair amount mystifyingly committed to Rendon, paying him 38 million per year thru 2026 iirc.

really depends on who owns the angels in 10 months

Surely Ohtani wants to go somewhere he can play postseason?

This is bad. Bad, bad, bad. ALL BAD. pic.twitter.com/c8jpgYK3kg

— LOLKNBR (@LOLKNBR) December 22, 2022

The radio called Correa's physical today "the most anticipated physical in history"--that made me laugh. Must have been a president or someone somewhere who had him beat.

the most anticipated cough of the year

Do the kennedy/alien autopsies count?

Huh?!

As much as the Twins hoped to retain Correa, a team source said the club hadn’t had an opportunity to thoroughly examine him since his original physical in March. The only extended examination Correa received during the season was when he was thought to have broken his finger on May 5 after getting hit by a pitch in Baltimore.

No examination was made following a Sept. 20 contest in which Correa appeared to be injured following a hard slide into second base, according to a team source. Thrown out stealing, Correa lay on the ground for an extended period before ultimately getting up on his own and limping off the field. Correa remained in the game.

That night, he told reporters he was OK after having a brief scare with his surgically-repaired lower right leg.

“He just hit my plate,” Correa said, referring to the hardware in his leg. “I had surgery and he hit it. Just kind of felt numb. Vibrating. So I was just waiting for it to calm down. It was a little scary, but when I moved I knew I was good.”

Lotta after the fact reporting on what *seems* to be some garden-variety capitalism happening?

Was it common knowledge the guy had a plate in his leg that got dinged like a tuning fork?

Also, why was he not examined by the Twins after that?!

curious what's going to happen with bauer, because

a) *some* ownership group/front office (be it the dodgers or someone else) will probably be willing to overlook heinous sexual assault to get a good pitcher for cheap

b) i am pretty sure manfred will do everything in his power to stop that. (he doesn't actually have that power, but i don't doubt his wishes are well known)

c) that's collusion

Jays landed Varsho from the diamondbacks for Gurriel and Gabriel Moreno. I was pretty high on Moreno, but looks like a fair trade

Looked at his career box...What am I missing? I thought we'd get more, especially with Gurriel thrown in.

Varsho? Has a few things going for him, amazing defender, great base runner. The average ugly, but he is more disciplined than Lourdes at the plate. I think between his BABIP and no more shift, his avg should improve and I expect he’s capable of hitting 30+ home runs.

they traded a top prospect + everyday player for a 4.5 win player in his prime, what's not to get?

wanted the yanks to get him but moreno is more than they could've offered. maximum deal prob would've included dominguez + pitching prospects (maybe torres or montas if feeling spicy)

He just doesn't look all that impressive to me--his OBA hovers around .300, and it takes a lot of power to make up for that. But his defense looks good, and we seem to be definitely focused on pitching/defense right now.

We've replaced our third catcher already!

30+ games appearing at C & 90+ in OF in a season:

2022 Daulton Varsho
2002 Eli Marrero
1975 Gary Carter
1968 Curt Blefary
1892 Jack O'Connor

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) December 23, 2022

Varsho's minor league stats were pretty nice. .302/.372/.527. One of fastest guys at the position.

btw sarah langs (xp) is 29yo and has ALS/lou gehrig's disease. which is just awful; she is grebt

Faced with an ALS diagnosis, Sarah Langs — MLB’s research star — keeps going ($)

craig kimbrel to the phillies, 1yr/$10m

Hahahaha I can’t get over this story

Mets concerned with Carlos Correa’s physical. Story with @DanHayesMLB: https://t.co/pHleqBg0ho

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 24, 2022

The New York Mets, like the San Francisco Giants earlier in the week, have raised concerns about Carlos Correa’s surgically repaired lower right leg, potentially jeopardizing their 12-year, $315 million agreement with the star shortstop, according to people briefed on the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly.

…

Team medical personnel occasionally offer different interpretations of a player’s medical records, just as a doctor giving a second opinion on a patient can disagree with the first. The Mets amount to Correa’s second opinion. And they appear to be confirming the first.

wow

well if this falls through, off your earlier comment maybe the philharmonic needs a man-sized tuning fork.

Lmao

I feel like he will still go there? But if he didn’t, he’ll be lucky if the Twins still have that $285 on the table

This is the strangest free agent signing I have ever witnessed. Not upset with the Giants now, they did know what they were doing.

Still failed to land that big signing though so

True but I think Judge was genuine and Correa ended up being something different. Not their fault that the market moved on while they were in the middle of what they were doing.

not trying to pile on, but it actually is their fault that the market moved on while they were dithering

i'm not saying it's easy, but it is literally their job to anticipate and deal with such issues

(i can understand why they lost judge to the yankees, but i don't see why they should have lost rodon to them as well)

it's just that yankee mystique

BREAKING: Mets reportedly found buzzer from Astros cheating scandal in Carlos Correa’s physical. pic.twitter.com/NXrz1Qs4g4

— New York Porch Sports (@nyporchsport) December 24, 2022

happy rickeymas everyone

Really curious to see how Correa’s 2x failed physicals contract winds up looking.

Scott Boras turns up in the Kevin Cook book I'm reading about the 23-22 Phillies-Cubs game. Bill Caudill pitched for the Cubs then, and there's a little detour about Caudill being Boras's first client (they knew each other from when they were teammates in Double-A).

Quick detour of my own. Five famous relievers pitched in that game: Sutter, McGraw, Caudill (one of the best for a couple of years), Willie Hernandez, and Donnie Moore.

know: Sutter, McGraw, Willie Hernandez

Caudioll and Moore, I got nothing

only a 4 hour (and 3 minutes) game!

*Caudill

2 fun facts:

this game took place 4 years before i was born. during those 4 years, i went to high school in sperm oblivion, played JV baseball, fell in love for the first time, was born and completely forgot everything.

also, this game was Caudill's third ever appearance in the big leagues. in his second appearance, also against the Phillies, he gave up 5 earned runs in 3 innings of work, including 2 HRs.

Caudill isn't famous, that was a stretch by me. Donnie Moore was a great closer in '85, but he's famous for tragic reasons: after giving up an ALCS homer to Dave Henderson in '86 and costing the Angels their first trip to the WS, he committed suicide a couple of years later. (I've read that what everyone assumed at the time, that the two events were linked, is specious.)

IIRC, Caudill was the Blue Jays' first ever free agent signing (I wouldn't know who he was otherwise).

I had no idea who he was and had to look him up.
Turns out the jays traded Collins and Griffen for him

After three seasons of 26/26/36 saves with Seattle and Oakland, he was going to be the last piece of the puzzle in '85 that would take us over the top: the much-needed closer. His stats actually weren't half-bad for the full year--but I think he blew a couple of key saves early in the year and they handed the job over to the guy from Texas who looked like a librarian.

rich Hill signing with the Pirates for 1 year/8 mil

Barves didn’t waste much time. Just signed Murphy to an extension.

Klubes to Boston

seems like an A's sign and flip move tbh

The Diamondbacks and free agent Evan Longoria have agreed to terms on a one-year contract, according to multiple reports.

The 3x Gold Glove winner spent the past five seasons with the Giants and batted .244 with 14 home runs and 42 RBIs last season.https://t.co/M1BQGjCZhT

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 30, 2022

https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2534354/red-sox-devers-avoid-arbitration-on-1-year-deal-worth-reported-17-5-m

Does this buy them time, or does it just assure his departure in 2024? Also, what do they hope for--that he has a great season but not too great? (Cf., Yankees/Judge.)

neither, necessarily. he has to play for them this year, there is a range of appropriate salaries for productive third-year arbitration-eligible players, and they agreed on a figure rather than fight about it

i wouldn't call it a *good* sign for them keeping him, tho. he's younger than all the guys who have made bank this winter, and i imagine the sox would have to *really* go big if they want to prevent him from reaching free agency

so he's gonna be a free agent

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/arizona-and-toronto-make-a-bold-swap/

some digestible insight here on daulton varsho’s fWAR from last year. essentially he rated very strongly defensively thanks to a high number of opportunities to make very difficult plays and a high rate of conversion on those attempts. logenhagen seems to think the defensive ability in the OF is pretty real tho i feel like the subtext here is that the rate of difficult plays both in terms of opportunity and success is prob not sustainable, so even if he stays the same skill wise as an OF his defensive numbers and thus his overall WAR will prob decrease unless offset elsewhere. he seems less sold on the bat based on statcast numbers. feels like the jays sold upside for near term certainty in this trade tho anytime a team is willing to unload a prospect of moreno’s caliber (top 3 overall) it does make one wonder if they feel like they know something the outside world does not

It’s been nearly two weeks and still no sign of that revised Carlos Correa contract?

boston giving Devers 11/331 starting in 2024

where are you seeing that

ah nm

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/01/04/sports/rafael-devers-red-sox/

very pleased about this. story at short, arroyo at second, kiké in center, casas at first, the firm hand of a grizzled varitek guiding the young catchers, an almost ridiculous amount of middling pitchers… it all still feels like an 80-win team to me without an ace or another bat, but it’s a team i’ll tune into at least

ha ha – well they certainly showed me!

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/carlos-correas-camp-in-discussions-with-at-least-one-team-other-than-mets.html

mets are still seen as the most likely landing spot, still working on it, etc

Multiple reports in recent weeks have suggested the Mets are looking to add language that’d allow them to get out of part of the contract if Correa suffers a serious right leg injury. Puma first reported a week ago such a concept was under discussion. Ken Rosenthal reiterated that on The Athletic’s podcast on Tuesday, suggesting the deal would require some kind of modification to protect the Mets in case of injury.

Heyman echoes those reports, writing the Mets are insistent on including some kind of injury provision. According to Heyman, the club doesn’t want to make any major changes to the base 12-year, $315MM structure. They do, however, apparently want to build in a manner of lowering that guarantee and/or allowing them to get out of the contract early in the event Correa spends a certain amount of time on the injured list with a right leg problem specifically. How long such an IL stint would have to be and how many years or dollars could be voided in the case of an injury would have to be agreed upon by both sides, and it seems those issues are holding up the contract’s finalization.

caveat: Heyman reported some of that. but so did Rosenthal, so i believe it. there's a lot more in the link. i didn't know that JD Martinez also had a similar claus in his contract related to potential foot injuries, so there is precedent

I'm enjoying this:

🚨Carlos Correa update from @JimBowdenGM🚨

The #Twins are back in!

"There is a possibility the Minnesota Twins come in and pick Correa out from under the New York Mets' noses."@Twins | #AllTwins | @Mets | #Mets | #LGM pic.twitter.com/7IwmAH4vd1

— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) January 6, 2023

I saw a rumour earlier that the Red Sox were circling which would be too funny for words

Funniest outcome is going back to the Twins with a cut on the original offer

Honestly the Mets don’t *really* need him, but I’d be surprised if he ends up on another team who opts to look the other way regarding the medicals.

After two other teams had concurring opinions about it, though? They might take him, but how likely would it be an offer of $/years that he would accept?

There’s also the element of this issue now being so public that if he does sign with the Mets and has some sort of catastrophic career ending injury, it will be worse than the Bonilla contract, which is actually just weird and not crippling. Everyone will know the Mets played themselves again.

The longer this drags out, the worse it is. If there was anything reconcilable it would have been done weeks ago. They don’t want to pay the original terms, he doesn’t want to move from them. Shouldn’t have been so greedy, fellas! This is not an apology for the conduct of the failing SF Giants, which was awful.

bauer dfa'd

Good but do wonder who is going to be the Browns in this case.

Have a lot of respect for the Dodgers, even if I hate them.

I don’t know that Bauer is worth the headache to anyone.

I could see pitt oak and bos ngl

the Correa thing dragging out has to be Boras's fault at this point, right?

Oh 100%, he looks like a complete prick. Correa had a picture of his baby wearing an I ❤️ NY onesie on his Instagram story the other day. He was always going to the Mets for less time and money!

Brandon Belt to the Jays for 9.3MM. Going to miss that guy but the Giants didn't have room for him or Longoria.

Was not expecting that one

Correa back to the Twins haha wtf

Star shortstop Carlos Correa and the Minnesota Twins are finalizing a six-year, $200 million contract, pending a physical, after weeks of discussion to salvage a deal with the New York Mets broke down, sources familiar with the situation told ESPN.

The stunning turn caps a whirlwind month for Correa, who agreed to a 13-year, $350 million contract with the San Francisco Giants on Dec. 13. After the Giants raised concerns about Correa's surgically repaired right leg, he pivoted quickly to the Mets, who offered him a 12-year, $315 million contract. The Mets flagged his physical as well, and efforts to amend the deal fell apart, leading Correa back to Minnesota, where he signed after a topsy-turvy offseason last year, too.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35419701/sources-carlos-correa-finalizing-twins-mets-talks-fizzle

More money for less work than the other offers, you have to tip your cap really. And he doesn’t have to bother packing!

Wait a second, I was too fast to say that

pending a physical

$33.3M AAV for those first 6 years, and the unreliable jon heyman adds that there are a series of vesting options that could add another 4 years and $70M onto the contract, if reached.

the gigantic, bad idea giants offer was about $27M AAV, and the mets offer was about $26.25M AAV

WTF, shocked but expected.

Glad it'll be MN (probably), aside from the drama Correa going to NYM to play 3B for 13 years is just the most boring outcome

Well Correa's 13 year and 12 year deals have fallen apart. Not sure if the Twins 10 year deal is still on the table but right now I don't think any team should sign him for more than six years. IMO, the Giants did the right thing by pulling that contract despite what Giants fans think. Spending wisely is way more important even if it puts them behind yet another year.

― Bee OK, Saturday, January 7, 2023 3:58

Called it, at least for the amount of guaranteed years.

Curious how Twins fans will react: "Welcome back" or "Wow, you really did your damnedest to get out of here, didn't you?"

If they win then it won't matter.

Why didn't (or couldn't) the Mets or Giants turn around and try to negotiate a shorter deal?

it's not like correa walked away from the twins for less money... they initially offered $285m and he had at least two offers of $300m+. i'm sure the fans will understand

Why didn't (or couldn't) the Mets or Giants turn around and try to negotiate a shorter deal?

it certainly seems like this was happening w/ the mets. i'd be curious to hear what their offer was... i wouldn't be shocked if he turned down like 3/120 or something from the mets based on the verlander and scherzer contract. but i think we're free to assume that this twins offer had the best combo of AAV and length of deal.

If they win and/or he plays at an All-Star level, agree, they'll forget immediately. If he gets off to a bad start, I can see them being brutal. If he gets hurt, well, he won't be there to hear it.

The Giants never got a chance as Bores ran to the Mets immediately.

Heyman adds that the Mets offered a guaranteed six years at $157.5MM — half the original term of their original offer.

Xpost

The Twins (I think) were reported as saying when the initial hitch came up with the Giants that they hadn’t examined Correa thoroughly since the beginning of the season so anything that the Giants and the Mets balked from wasn’t necessarily known to them. I’m really interested in how this physical goes.

If he gets off to a bad start, I can see them being brutal.

yeah but this happens when you're a high priced FA regardless of whether you flirted w/ other teams or not

I'm officially proclaiming Carlos Correa the wildest free-agent saga ever.

One team scheduled a press conference.

A second team's owner talked about why they needed him - on the record.

And he didn't end up signing with either team!

There's never been anything quite like it

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) January 10, 2023

Definitely the wildest thing I remember since Charlie Finley tried to sell off Vida Blue, Rollie Fingers, and Joe Rudi midway through the '76 season.

(xpost) Sometimes, but I don't think always. I'd have to give it some thought, but I think I remember Jays' fans being patient with certain FAs who started slow. Maybe it's a given in New York...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmILgLJaYAQw4y_?format=png&name=240x240

They should just let him skip the presser if he passes the physical and resigns. “Of course, I always wanted to stay with the Twins…”

I'm really curious to know what the Twins know (or think they know) such that they're willing to spend $200M on a player with tuning forks for legs who has already failed two physicals.

looks like the vesting options are all based on 502+ PAs in the previous season:

If the deal is finalized, Correa will receive an $8MM signing bonus (paid out between 2023 and 2024) and annual salaries of $36MM in 2023-25, $31.5MM in 2026, $30.5MM in 2027 and $30MM in 2028. The vesting options are valued at $25MM (2029), $20MM (2030), $15MM (2031) and $10MM (2032) and each become guaranteed if Correa reaches 502 plate appearances in the preceding season.

those vesting options are kind of interesting, because there's no opt-out, right? if Correa gets 502+ PAs during the 2031 season (his age 36 season), this forces him to take a $10M salary for 2032. i'd assume $/WAR will be at least $10M by then, so if he's capable of producing more than 1 WAR he'll be forced into taking a very team-friendly deal for that final season. something tells me he'll either be injured or will find a way to be injured in 2031, heh

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/35420485/red-sox-trevor-story-elbow-surgery-miss

jeez

lol ok

Carlos Correa to the Twins is done. Physical passed. Deal official.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) January 11, 2023

This feels like the Twins being a small market team unlikely to land a player as good as Correa in free agency, so maybe willing to cross their fingers.

I honestly wonder where correa’s head is at now, like if he’s going to be a good vibes teammate after missing out on SF and NY and going through a pretty humiliating free agency and returning to MN on a deal that is less than their initial offer. It’s a really strange situation for all parties.

I dont think correa is a headcase in the way that (remember a guy here) needs to be thought of as the biggest swingin dick in the room

Pretty sure he won’t be some kind of major weirdo, it’s just such a singular kind of thing. MN actually seems like generally a good vibes squad so it probably is the best place to come back to.

He can just blame Boras tbh

he did get more per year on this deal than he would have w/ the twins initial offer... he should be fairly happy w/ how this played out & frankly it seems like the twins really did him a solid at best or were reckless out of some sense of desperation at worst. which isn't to say it wasn't a humiliating process but it's not like he's back there on a 1/15 contract or something

Also one thing I expect is that twins fans were probably fully expecting him to be gone and now that he’s back they’ve got to be pretty happy. Also seems likely that this was the best he was going to get, though I’m wondering why no other team matched the twins here.

Honestly, two different clubs having concerns about the physical and the duration of all this dragging on probably spooked them.

Padres signed Nelson Cruz. Not sure there's much left there, but if he surprises, he may get another season out of it and 500 HR...5-10%?

382 since his age-30 season. If you could combine that with Ken Griffey Jr. 19-30 (438), you'd have 820 HR and the record.

298 if you want to do that the other way around.

Honestly, two different clubs having concerns about the physical and the duration of all this dragging on probably spooked them.

― bit high, bitch (gyac), Wednesday, January 11, 2023 11:29 AM (five hours ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah true just kinda surprised there wasn't a third suitor beyond NY and SF but Boras maybe advised him that the direction it was trending was not great, and another troublesome physical with another team might make everything worse, so may as well revisit Minny. at least the six years plus incentives could wind up as the long-term one he was seeking.

298 if you want to do that the other way around--hadn't considered that! You get either Barry Bonds+ or Steve Finley-.

I'm thinking Nelson Cruz isn't gonna surprise anyone this season, he started to decline upon arrival in Tampa in 2021. Might be a useful plug-in power bat but i kinda anticipate a season more in line w/the worst of Pujols' late Angels period.

40 years old, but weird how he just took a nosedive with the Rays; he was having another great season up to that point.

was he injured last year? a decline is to be expected, but after posting an ISO above .200 for 14 straight years, it crashed to .103 in 2022.

betting against Cruz at this point is possibly a bad idea, and i would actually root for him to get to 500 HR, but it's gonna be a tough road i think.

he could have just hit a wall similar to the one sheffield hit in 2007 w/the tigers (seriously check out the first and second half splits for him that year, it's mind-boggling.)

“One thing I learned throughout the whole process is that doctors have differences of opinions. I had a lot of doctors tell me that I was fine, some doctors that said it wasn't so fine."

- Carlos Correa pic.twitter.com/ubgYRzgvOY

— SNY (@SNYtv) January 11, 2023

Carlos Correa was "very surprised" that the Giants, and then the Mets, balked at signing him to a deal: pic.twitter.com/neRfmhdjma

— SNY (@SNYtv) January 11, 2023

When the Twins traded him, he was at .294/.370/.537; then .226/.283/.442 with Tampa. (I did notice in his game log he had been in a two-week slump before the trade, so maybe the Twins were on to something.)

Posnanski's theory (about which I have no opinion whatsoever):

My guess — and it’s entirely a guess — is that the Giants and Mets did see something troubling in the physical report, but that really they were feeling buyer’s remorse. The Giants’ interest in Correa seemed relatively tame; they REALLY wanted Judge. They REALLY wanted Turner. I get the sense that Correa felt a bit like a door prize to them — a $350 million door prize — and when they saw a distressing medical report, they saw a way out.

The Mets are a little bit harder to explain, but again, as a guess — Correa’s signing seemed a rash impulse buy from Cohen, not unlike Elon Musk and Twitter. It happened so incredibly fast (and while Cohen was on vacation in Hawaii), and I think when morning came, Cohen was like: “Wait a minute, what have I done here?” When the medical report popped up the way it did, I think Cohen was like: “OK, I still want him, but only on our terms.”

And then Minnesota swooped back in because the Twins REALLY want him.

It’s no surprise that his physical in Minnesota was fine.

That's complete BS. We're supposed to believe that this "buyer's remorse" -- which apparently has never happened ever in 50 years of baseball free agency, spanning who knows how many overpriced players -- happened twice in less than a month?

after the DFA last week, Bauer was unconditionally released today. so if he's going to sign with a MLB team, i suppose we'll find out soon.

The Yankees and Mets have no plans to pursue Bauer, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Padres are also uninterested, per Bryce Miller of the San Diego Union-Tribune, and the same goes for the Guardians, per Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets that the Twins also have no plans to speak with Bauer.

i imagine he might go overseas

(xpost) I'm sure buyer's remorse is not unprecedented, but unless there's something tangible to hang it on, we'd never hear about it. I'm not saying he's right, but I don't find it utterly implausible--no more than any other theory as to why two teams deemed him a physical risk and a third team didn't.

The third deal was for half the number of years.

You’d also imagine there’s legal constraints on “buyer’s remorse” given that these are extremely public deals with repercussions for reputations for both clubs and players.

(xpost) I know, but if the physical issue is an immediate and present danger, it's not like the Twins will get six years of service. Anyway, I really don't know what happened. I thought the theory was interesting, and as valid as anything else I've read on the matter.

(xpost) If the Giants and Mets said publically "We're second-guessing ourselves here," sure. But this gray area on the physical gave them opening--I think that was his point. ("My guess — and it’s entirely a guess — is that the Giants and Mets did see something troubling in the physical report...)

https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/z/resonance-tuning-fork-which-reflects-vibration-one-tuning-fork-struck-other-tuning-fork-will-also-vibrate-217563806.jpg

Am I Tuning Fork A, Tuning Fork B, or those pretty blue and green lines?

Neither!

yeah there's no way either the giants or mets would cross scott boras over a non issue medical so i'm not really sure what posnanski is on about

seems fairly obvious to me that the giants and mets have the ability to be in every free agent conversation and can afford to pass on a player of correa's caliber if the medicals worry them whereas the twins are rarely in free agent conversations and thus have more incentive to accept the risk of the medicals

That's what I was thinking. Twins really aren't going to get someone of his caliber normally in free agency.

pos just going on feelings there; that's true blogging

perhaps not entirely unlike his biography of joe paterno

Last thing I'll say, because it's not that big a deal. Posnanski has things to lose too when he posts; he's coming off a hugely successful baseball book (a rather pricey book that made the Times bestseller list and won awards), with the follow-up set for release in a few months. I don't think it's in his best interest to send wild conspiracy theories out into the world. I just took it as an attempt to make sense of a bizarre story.

I also did see the Giants or Mets getting cold feet. There has to be something up with his ankle as he only ended up with a six year guarantee.

Do NOT

I'm breaking my promise not to say anything more...Posnanski's not treating the two things as mutually exclusive: "...and when they saw a distressing medical report, they saw a way out." They can publically acknowledge one of those two things--the distressing medical report--the other they would never, for reasons you all mention, so we can only guess.

I.e., maybe what he's saying is just painfully obvious: they saw a distressing medical report and got cold feet/a case of buyer's remorse.

i don't think it's a big deal either . . . but!

much like matt yglesias, he's now a substack blogger. people pay him and expect him to hold forth on the issues of the day, even if he has no particular knowledge of them.

as a well-connected sportswriter, he might have done some actual reporting on the matter? but instead, perhaps due to the demands of producing content for his subscribers, he's just making guesses. his guesses are probably better than ours, but that's a pretty low bar

my understanding is that posnanski has been completely up his own ass for years so guessing is probably all he's capable of

Did you read The Baseball 100?

Can't recommend it enough, although obviously you're not going to read an 800-page book if that's your frame of reference.

i have delved into portions of the baseball 100 and i think it's great and fun and have recommended it to people. it also has zero to do with carlos correa

my understanding is that posnanski has been completely up his own ass for years so guessing is probably all he's capable of

Seeing as The Baseball 100 was published within the past year, there does seem to be a vague connection between that comment and the book.

Serenity now.

how many active players are profiled in the 100? (i believe the answer is three)

his ability to make baseball history come alive, which i very much appreciate, has, again, nothing to do with his random unreported guesses about carlos correa's contract negotiations

Which we were talking about, yes, until it became a referendum on Joe Posnanski. I think he's a great writer, so if people say what I think are silly things about him, I'm going to defend him. And the comment I was responding to suggested he's been terrible for years.

i mean 'he wrote beautifully about willie mays' doesn't mean 'he fathoms the depths of steve cohen's mind'

xp ok

I think what bothers me is the way you and others are trying to frame what he wrote. 1) The idea that he ignores the legitimate concerns the Giants and Mets had. He doesn't--he very specifically refers to the "distressing medical report(s)" they saw, more than once I think. 2) The idea that he passes the blog post off as "fathoming the depths of Steve Cohen's mind." Pretty sure he really emphasizes that he's only guessing. As to whether he should be doing that or reporting, well, I'm going to guess he knows his audience a lot better than you do. I pay for the blog. If he were doing dry reporting that I can get dozens of other places, I wouldn't bother. He's a writer. Writers speculate.

he's only guessing

indeed

Jesus, he writes a blog! If you know he's guessing, and I know he's guessing, and he knows--and says--he's guessing, explain to me again what we're arguing about, and how this one column is emblematic of what a bad baseball writer he is. Are you saying that, coming out of this amazing story, he shouldn't be writing about it unless he has some hard, verifiably true inside information? That isn't what he does.

Maybe I should have led with a disclaimer: "This is only Joe's Posnanski's opinion. He's only guessing. He'll say that three times, but I want to make sure you know."

maybe i should have bolded indeed

fwiw i have literally met joe posnanski; he was very briefly a colleague and seemed like a nice guy.

anyway i know you feel like i'm picking on you, and i wish you didn't feel that way, because i don't mean it that way and i truly enjoy your posts. (contrast this conversation with basically any interaction i have with user table.) i just think you are being overly protective of pos in a situation in which he doesn't really deserve it

That's great that you've met him. If it's not too personal, what do you mean by colleague? You actually worked together in some fashion? (I know this isn't the right thread...answer that, and we can drop the matter.)

(Yes, I do get defensive with certain writers. I go through the same thing with--obviously--James, also Marcus, Kael, and, to a lesser extent, Christgau.)

he briefly worked for 'sports on earth' (as did emma span, who is now a Major Editor at the athletic, and also jay jaffe's wife) which was at that time under the MLB umbrella

there were so many brief stabs at relevance! at least none of those i was involved with included betting odds, i guess?

Interesting...don't even get me started on professional sports' new love affair with gambling.

Zaidi said SF checked in with Correa when Mets deal fell apart. Said he doesn't feel vindicated by a second failed physical & called whole situation "unfortunate." Zaidi: "I'm happy for Carlos, he's one of the great players in the game. He seems happy with where he's going."

— Alex Pavlovic (@PavlovicNBCS) January 12, 2023

Zaidi is playing it close to the vest and won't leak anything, respect that. I do wonder what they offered after the fact.

Interesting...don't even get me started on professional sports' new love affair with gambling.

I agree, I'm not a gambler and hate this trend. MLB Network is almost unwatchable with all its gambling aspects on it.

Whereas for me, trying to watch football matches when like 90% of teams have shirts sponsored by betting companies and there are constant ads - baseball is almost refreshing in comparison.

Whos your football team gyac? You would think mine is the 49ers but I'm in Los Angeles and a Rams fan. I used to live in San Francisco and that was when I fell in love with the Giants. I couldn't become a Dodgers fan tho technically I should be an Angeles fan.

:D

xp sorry I don’t mean nfl, and my only team has been a series of disappointments for a while so I don’t talk on ilx about them :(

I should have known you were taking about soccer.

Smart and measured comments there by Zaidi. Leaking details about the physical could probably get him into legal trouble too.

Here is detailed account from the Giants prospective on the Correa deal. Not a 11th hour pull out...

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/carlos-correa-giants-full-details-clarified-farhan-zaidi-saga-ends

Andrew McCutchen, a former MVP and one of the most accomplished players in Pirates history, has signed a one-year, $5 million deal -- pending a physical -- a source told MLB.com, to return to Pittsburgh. The club has not confirmed.

i like this move

//PENDING A PHYSICAL//

I demand we strike a tuning fork every time the term pending a physical comes up in honour of Creaky Carlos.

xps to Bee Ok this is all info he should have put out when the deal fell through - like the timing rumour was out there for days and no doubt reputationally damaging - he was right to have concerns about releasing the medical info but they still should have spoken up before.

xp i support this idea, and personally i will also be striking a bass drum in the distance every time the spectre of Dr. James Andrew is invoked

*Andrews

btw i don't think pos is terrible but endlessly rewriting your list of the best baseball players ever and bullshitting with mike schur is kind of up-one's-ass behavior

Haven't read this, but a Boras interview about the whole thing:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2023/01/15/scott-boras-carlos-correa-mlb-free-agency-mets/11054597002/

not sure where to put this, and also, not sure that anyone cares, but it seems like Diamond Sports, the baseball broadcasting branch of the terrible and hated Sinclair Broadcast Group, may be going bankrupt soon. i believe 14 MLB teams have deals with Sinclair.

IDGI -- Boras offered the Mets a way to void the contract if Correa spent more than 120 days on the IL over a two year period (presumably only due to an ankle-related injury). But he wouldn't accept the Mets counteroffer of six years guaranteed, with the next six years pending a physical?

They wanted to avoid the situation where after six years, the Mets find a quack doctor to fail Correa on a physical and give them a way out of the remainder of the contract. But OTOH, Correa could break his leg in Year 1 of the contract and have the whole thing voided almost from the start.

If Boras' side of the story is accurate, then the Mets pulled a bush league move by relying on the opinion of the same specialist that the Giants did. Why not get a second opinion at the very least?

It's almost as if they had buyer's remorse and saw a way out...kidding!

xp not so clear cut as all that

According to Boras, the Giants and the Mets both relied on opinions from the same specialist — Dr. Robert Anderson, a Green Bay Packers associate team physician who operated on Derek Jeter's broken left ankle in 2012. Boras said Giants team orthopedist Dr. Ken Akizuki consulted with Anderson directly, while the Mets team at the Hospital for Special Surgery relied on foot and ankle specialist Dr. Mark Drakos — who also consulted with Anderson.

Who to believe here, Scott Boras or three orthopedic surgeons with nearly seven decades of experience between them?

“It’s not a functionality," Boras said Wednesday at Correa's introductory news conference in Minnesota. "It’s just how long you weather the pain to play, and he has never had complaints. Will he have complaints in the future? And the answer is he hasn’t had complaints after eight years in the major leagues, and the functional fitness orthopedists say it’s unlikely he will going forward.”

Boras cited a split among orthopedists and surgeons, maintaining orthopedists believe “almost a Darwinian concept where you actually grow into a formation of your being able to compete and perform.”

while the Mets team at the Hospital for Special Surgery relied on foot and ankle specialist Dr. Mark Drakos — who also consulted with Anderson

I saw Dr. Mark Drakos (Bond villain name) for an ankle/foot problem I was having last year. HSS are considered the best ortho surgeons in the country.

*stands ready to strike a bass drum in the distance*

Dr Robert Anderson simply striking a tuning fork down the phone every time Boras rings him.

Boras didn't say that these doctors don't know what they're doing. He said that it didn't make sense for the Mets to consult with Anderson if they were serious about a deal. Anderson had already given his opinion, so what did they hope to gain by consulting with him?

Probably because the guy they both consulted with is one of the foremost experts in that area with decades of experience in dealing with these kinds of injuries? This in both cases after their team specialists presumably both flagged up concerns. Doesn’t seem that mysterious to me, unless you were trying to cya after an pretty embarrassing situation.

Like, the Giants doctor doesn’t like what he sees, asks Anderson for a second opinion, Anderson gives it, Giants pull the plug. Then Mets doctor also doesn’t like what he’s seen, asks Anderson (because why would the Giants share medical information with a rival team again?), Anderson again gives it. Seems like clutching at straws tbqh.

Ya, it’s not like the Giants are going to hand over their medical info to the Mets.

But Boras said that he did share that information with the Mets. They chose to sign him anyway. So either Boras is lying, or there was a game of broken telephone going on with the Mets while trying to reach their owner on a beach somewhere.

Here's the quote:

“I don’t understand the Mets," Boras said. “I gave them all of the information. We had them talk to four doctors. They knew the issue the Giants had. And yet, they still call the same doctor the Giants used for his opinion.

The guy whose reputation depends on getting his clients the big bucks or several distinguished medical professionals? Can’t believe they didn’t just take his word for it!

You seem to be missing out the fact that the Mets have their own doctor, who is highly regarded in his own right, and they checked with the same expert the Giants did, presumably because he’s an expert. Seriously. This isn’t hard.

The issue isn't whether they should have trusted Boras or trusted the doctors. Boras shared the opinions of the doctors with the Mets. He didn't say "listen to me, not to them".

So either 1) Boras is lying/twisting the story in his favour, or 2) the Mets signed Correa on the off-chance that their doctors would come to a different conclusion than the doctors that the Giants consulted with (even though they planned on consulting with at least one of the same doctors). And when it turned out that the experts were right all along, they tried to lowball Correa or void the entire deal.

It’s possible boras is being 100% factual but still being misleading. The Mets may have only checked in for confirmation on something - who knows. I honestly just cannot trust what the man says.
The deal with the Mets was also announced in the middle of the night hours after the Giants officially pumped the breaks. It’s possible they didn’t realize how bad the report was that the giants got or that boras misrepresented things entirely with them.

lol ok

Yes, Tommy Pham slapped a man because of fantasy football, but the background work Mets did on him turned up intel that he's a very well-liked teammate and good clubhouse presence. The man he slapped was on a different ballclub, after all

— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) January 18, 2023

On top of Pham’s $6MM, the Mets owe a 90% luxury tax of $5.4MM, bringing their total tab for the signing to $11.4MM.

sheesh

*Mets make “wooooooo scary” fingers*

I guess it’s a new era when lolmets = look how much luxury tax they have to pay

aroldis chapman to the royals on a one-year deal

make him a starter or gtfo!

Could see a dead cat bounce bc of the stadium

twins trade luis arraez to the marlins for pablo lopez and two prospects. surprised by this move, though i'm not familiar with lopez

What’s surprising is the Marlins giving up prospects

lopez's shoulder is a concern

what's also interesting is that arraez's arrival is going to push jazz chisholm to CF, a position he's never played before.

Is that what they’re saying? Arraez can play pretty much anywhere on the diamond can’t he?

(Except maybe CF and C)

that's the word

Marlins general manager Kim Ng told Craig Mish of SportsGrid.com that Jazz Chisholm will play center field in 2023.

This news comes shortly after the Marlins acquired Luis Arraez from the Twins to become the Marlins' new second baseman. Chisholm certainly has the athleticism to handle the position, but there was some thought that the 24-year-old would play shortstop -- a position he has previous experience at -- with Arraez in town. He'll have eligibility in the middle-infield to begin 2023, and should gain outfield eligibility shortly into the season.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/marlins-jazz-chisholm-will-play-in-center-in-2023/
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/marlins-to-move-jazz-chisholm-to-center-field.html

sorry, ignore the "eligibility" stuff - it's from a fantasy site

Had this crazy idea the Jays might pursue Arraez--seemed perfect for a team emphasizing pitching/defense.

Lol - the infield was the one thing (ok and catcher) where they were solid going into the offseason!

Lopez would have made way more sense (less so now that they have Bassitt)

the marlins gave up prospects because arraez has one more year of control and i think because of hitters being considered safer.

the marlins likely would’ve had one of the worst center field rotations in baseball this season so if jazz can get to just kinda bad on defense they should be upgrading two positions here. i’m intrigued by the idea but i worry about his health, he had back and knee injuries last year

Jazz Chisholm, Jr. tells me he told the organization if they didn’t acquire a Centerfielder he would “Go out, play the position and win a Gold Glove.”

— Craig Mish (@CraigMish) January 20, 2023

And he hasn’t played a single inning anywhere in the outfield in the major or minors?! Amazing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJpei5QrZ44

Lol - the infield was the one thing (ok and catcher) where they were solid going into the offseason!
― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall)

I want all the good players, every last one of them. (I guess we are pretty solid at second with Merrifield.)

And Espinal and Otto Lopez too (and Addison Barger in AAA)

new cardinals broadcaster is chip caray

pleasing lineage, of course. i don't think i've ever heard him call a braves game, so i don't really know. hopefully he is better than joe buck

ooooooh fuck

Q: could i be a hotshot front office person by being aware of the fangraphs broadcaster rankings and advising a team to not pick the lead broadcaster from one of the worst ranked broadcast teams?

fuck man

i read recently, in a local st louis dispatch piece about how sinclair (who owns bally sports, who i think does the broadcasting for 10+ teams) is going bankrupt, that the cardinals ownership were letting bally sports drive the new broadcaster search. who would have known that they'd do a terrible job, weird

fangraphs rates broadcasters?!?!

the readers do. i think the last year they did the tv broadcasters was after the 2020 season. here were the results.

https://i.imgur.com/rhmn8wJ.png
https://i.imgur.com/ks3jcYg.png

here are the radio broadcasters:

https://i.imgur.com/5zK1dxY.png
https://i.imgur.com/6ltLlsC.png

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/broadcaster-crowdsourcing-results-part-3-10-1/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/radio-broadcast-crowdsourcing-results-part-3-10-1/

you have to take it with a grain of salt, of course, because it's biased toward the readership, and they get a lot more votes for/against teams with larger viewerships, like the NY and LA teams. still, the fangraphs readership is relatively knowledgable compared to most fans, and especially a place like barstool sports. and although teams with higher viewerships get more votes, there are examples of teams at the top (the mets) and near the bottom (the cardinals)

and i think they generally get it right. the mets tv broadcast is great - i always love when the cards play the mets because i can tune in to their broadcast team and it's hundreds of times better. same with the dodgers (at least back in the scully era), the giants, etc, which rank highly here

Analysis/Charisma/Coherence--reminds me of the scorecard on Kool Moe Dee's How Ya Like Me Now. No rating for "Sticking to Themes"?

that might fall under "coherence":

“Coherence” focuses on play-by-play, but it also covers how well broadcasters stay in tune with the game. The most coherent broadcasts strike a balance between telling stories and informing viewers of the current state of the game. That’s a tough balance to strike, and many broadcasts that scored well on charisma did worse in terms of coherence.

I’ve tried a few STL broadcasts and found them practically unlistenable and flat. I don’t know how you do it, KM.

Chip, if I remember correctly, is a big Braves homer, so that could potentially be funny when the Cards play the Braves.

Gary Cohen and Howie Rose are going into the Mets Hall of Fame this year.

many broadcasts that scored well on charisma did worse in terms of coherence

Early Wynn, 1977! (Truthfully, I'm guessing--it's not like I remember.)

The note about Howie Rose’s curmudgeonly/get off my lawn rants is true though, and has been getting more prevalent every year.

i would settle for a broadcast that excels in even one of analysis, charisma, or coherence. it's not a 3-legged stool situation, where if you remove one the whole thing falls over. baseball broadcasting is like a 5-legged stool. it's perfectly fine until you knock out 3 of the fucking legs

Dan Schulman is pretty close to a five-legged stool.

Barves broadcasts are rid of Chip Caray? Best baseball news I've heard all winter!

i will dread him in your honor.

a true turd cannot die. it must be passed

I love Schuman

only heard chip on TBS playoff coverage iirc, but he was noticeably awful

schulman is grebt. i mean, if you can call games with dick vitale, you can call anything

The thing I'll miss the most about Chip Caray no longer being the play-by-play commentator for the Braves is him not being afraid to describe terrible throws accurately. pic.twitter.com/FOHfrYifv0

— Baseball GIFs (@gifs_baseball) January 24, 2023

I'm surprised that people watch enough baseball to be able to judge the broadcast teams in many cities besides their home team's city. Every team's broadcasters are something of an acquired taste, I think this is unique to baseball broadcasting compared with other sports, because you have to get used to hearing them every night. It would be like having drinks with the same two acquaintances every night for six months -- you eventually learn to tolerate (and even like) all their strange quirks and idiosyncrasies.

Idk man i watch the mets w the sound on and most other ny region sports broadcasts w the sound off

apparently arte moreno has pulled the angels off the market

no idea how this might affect ohtani's next contract

having to listen to chip caray's voice for 3 hours every day is not that different from something they might come up w/ at a CIA black site. i've been consoling my close friend who is a cardinals fan

Art was probably hoping for a competitive bid from the ILX collective

Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred also released a statement on the matter, as relayed by Sam Blum of The Athletic. “Despite strong buyer interest in the Angels, Arte Moreno’s love of the game is most important to him. I am very pleased that the Moreno Family has decided to continue owning the team.”

:D

is the white sox broadcaster still the "you can put it on the board" guy.

no. and his replacement (jason benetti) is v. good

The last good Rangers TV guy was Josh Lewin a decade-plus ago was shocked that Tom Grieve was retiring after 30 years of being the most boring guy on air not named Babe Laufenberg.

Adalberto Mondesi to Boston in exchange for mediocre reliever Josh Taylor

i have to admit i have a weakness for soft-hitting infield wizards (cf Andrelton Simmons) (not that Mondesi is as good with the glove as Simmons) (but still)

he's also made of glass

Once I had an infielder, he played off the grass
Soon found out

Passan:

BREAKING: National League batting champion Jeff McNeil and the New York Mets are in agreement on a four-year, $50 million contract extension, pending physical, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. It includes a fifth-year club option that could take value to $63.75 million

also, Diamond Broadcast Group (owned by Sinclair, owns Bally Sports) confirms the rumors and is headed to bankruptcy court. they broadcast for these teams:

Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City, Los Angeles Angels, Miami, Milwaukee, Minnesota, St. Louis, San Diego, Tampa Bay, and Texas

it also affects other sports that feature balls, such as the NBA and NHL

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/80012/in-the-dirt-sinclair-prioritizing-buybacks-over-baseball-hurts-fans-the-most/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-25/sports-broadcaster-diamond-faces-8-6-billion-debt-reckoning

xp someone ask keith law if he thinks jeff mcneil is a prospect

*correction: the NHL does not feature a ball

Greinke is a Royal for one more (likely final) year

he had a pretty solid 2022, hope he finishes on a high note.

i hope so too, but his peripherals didn't look great last year

Beltran hired by the Mets:

https://baseball.realgm.com/wiretap/55598/Carlos-Beltran-Joining-Mets-As-Special-Assistant-To-GM

Timing in interesting, after he did better in HOF voting than I think was the general expectation (because of the scandal and the Mets bailing last time).

(I think George Costanza was once up for the same job with the Yankees but lost out to Wilhelm.)

is anyone else excited about the world baseball classic

I am, but not so excited that I have any idea when it starts

still a month away - first games are march 8.

some teams are still announcing rosters, but you can see them here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_World_Baseball_Classic_rosters

team gb is going to…. lose badly lol

yeah, it's probably going to get ugly for czech republic as well.

dominican republic is gonna be mighty good again

People are saying Japan is the fav to win it?!

yeah, i'm really, really looking forward to getting to see them play, especially to get a chance to watch Munetaka Murakami and Roki Sasaki

Baseball’s Best Young Hitter and Pitcher Play in Japan

also, Ohtani.

the US starting lineup is going to be monstrous (OF: Trout, Betts, Tucker; IF: Goldschmidt, Arenado, Turner, Witt Jr, Alonso, Story; Realmuto catching), but good pitching is even important in a tournament and japan has some of the best pitchers on earth on their team

even ^more^ important

I am now sufficiently excited.

ONLY ONE MONTH REMAINS!

haha but yeah i am relatively excited for it. i had never watched a WBC before the last go round and found it really gripping and way more intense than i thought it would be. it also led to unforgettable (for me) moments that wouldn't be possible in MLB, like

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SuiEAdveNE0

something like that might happen in an all-star game, i suppose, but even then there's something about it coming in the midst of a competitive game where they really, really want to win (and have fun) that made it special

I always pay *some* attention to the wbc (I think we have a thread for it). I always enjoy seeing guys explode onto the scene through it

padres extend Yu Darvish through 2028, $108M, $18M AAV. when the contract is up at the end of 2028, darvish will be 42 years old.

a lot to pay for his Phil Niekro years

that is…pretty generous of the padres

spring training, pitchers and catchers reporting, all of that. is time for a new season thread yet? i want to get past this horrible, awful winter and part of it, psychologically, is the idea that baseball is happening again.

i took a screenshot of facebook content that i didn't ask to see but thought was intersting

https://i.imgur.com/jWPnC1b.png

There’s still a month of spring training to go though. Feels like the general thread needs to be closer to opening day.

That chart made me laugh. If you overpay enough people, you look come out looking pretty good.

midseason form

Jacob deGrom felt some tightness in his left side, and — given the cold weather and how early it is in camp, we’re told — they’re going to hold him back a day or two. We’re told the seriousness level is such that he would play through it if it were the regular season.

— Levi Weaver (@ThreeTwoEephus) February 15, 2023

good luck, texas