To What Extent Does Your Life Revolve Around Alejandro Kirk? (The 2023 Blue Jays Thread)

That thread title's going to look awfully stupid if they ship Kirk out in a trade.

Looks like we got a solid third starter today, even if I did have to look him up. (I really must not pay much attention to the NL--he was Top 10 Cy Young in 2020 and 2021.) Maybe we're mutating into a pitching-defense team.

Marcus Stroman has finally stopped tweeting.

Bassitt is a dependable guy--lots of innings, lots of different pitches.

He seems a little susceptible to the HR, but his other peripherals--H/9, K/BB--are solid for four years running. He's 33, but looks like he's just hitting his stride. (Late-blooming pitchers are far more frequent than with position players.)

didn't see we finally got a new thread! here's what i just posted on the old one:

love the Bassitt signing. thought he was gonna get like 24M for 4 years; so this is pretty fair.
then Murphy is traded and Vasquez signs, so if any team wants a bonafide starting C, the Jays are the only game in town now!

with his location skills and arsenal, he does indeed feel like a guy that will age well.

and ya. thread name guarantees Kirk is on his way out (please get Daulton Varsho)!

also RIP my favourite thread name i ever came up with

In all the free-agent talk, I haven't heard a word about Stripling. He's still a Jay, right?

Long gone now, i’d recon.

just stopping in to lmao at the thread title

Bassitt is a great signing (I "know" him well via fantasy baseball).

Still not sure about this offseason strategy of "stockpiling #3 pitchers with upside and hope for the entire offense to bounce back", with a side order of "count on the Yankees regressing, TB's smoke and mirrors magic running out (perhaps due to the ban on shifts), Boston acting like a mid-market team, and Baltimore's 2021 being a strange fluke".

It really seems like Shapiro and Atkins have no interest in assembling a potential 100-win team, they're happy with being the 2010-2014 Giants -- put together a solid 85-90 win team, retool in July before the deadline, and hope for a playoff run.

The jays had one of the best offences in baseball last year! First in OPS+!!! I dont think they need to do a lot - Bassitt is an improvement over Stripling. I just think they have to find a decent LH bat in the outfield and they’re better than last year easily.

I looked at the decline in runs scored (71 fewer than 2021), stupidly forgetting that scoring was down everywhere in MLB. So yes, the offense is fine even though they haven't replaced Teoscar's bat. I still think that a lot needs to go right on the pitching side to have a chance at a serious playoff run, but the potential is obviously there.

Just gut feeling, but I felt like the 2021 team was much more consistent; they seemed hapless for stretches in 2022 (and, if true, had enough hot streaks to make up for that).

they def had a very bad time with hot/cold spells. Bo especially was terrible the first 2/3 and then a god for the last 1/3. Vlad too did not look anything like his 2021-self. you'd expect some regression, but he was taking some bad hacks out there. then we had an outfield that was rotating between injuries a lot.

Posnanski is polling readers on each franchise's greatest moment. You get four to choose from, a "pass" option, and a write-in option. (The Royals get six moments--hometown--and the Yankees get ten, with an accompanying "Ugh.")

I voted instantaneously for Bautista over Carter, so quickly that I didn't even notice what the Jays' other two moments were. Alomar's HR would be one, I assume; I don't know if Edwin's would be the other, or if it'd be something silly like Winfield and the seagull (he has a few of those mixed in).

pirates' is obviously mazeroski

for me personally i only have impressions of the we are family era (i had just turned eight when they last won the world series)

later key moments i recall:
- francisco cabrera + sid bream (not a great one)
- watching doug drabek lose a no-hitter in the ninth against the phillies circa 1992 (also not a great one)
- some game circa 1991-92 in the ninth with lee smith trying to close the door and i simply *knew* bonds was going to go deep . . . and then he did

sorry for non-jays content, but nevertheless

I voted for Clemente's two throws in the '71 Series, only because I saw that; I think I mostly voted for things I saw.

Not always, though--I voted for Robinson's debut over Gibson's HR.

dave parker's all-star game throw, maybe

For the record, I welcome meandering, off-topic convos here.
Let the Jays thread this day forth, be forever be about whatever we feel like switching the conversation to

I wasn't alive in '71 and was too young to remember '79, unfortunately my most notable moment involving the Pirates is Francisco Cabrera '92 :(

For me personally, I think Bautista's HR has overtaken Carter's HR, because of recency bias and the fact that the game itself was one of the damned craziest things I ever saw. But objectively speaking, Carter's HR WON THE WS and is the obvious answer.

Carter is the obvious answer, agreed, but having seen both, I know Bautista's was more cathartic for me. It was just so incredible at every level: the inning, the game, the season, the drought, the player.

Carter's HR was this great cherry on top of a 10-year run of success; they won the WS the year before, and if they lose that game, there's still tomorrow. Bautista's HR wasn't exactly the Cubs or the Red Sox finally winning a Series, but I swear that's what it felt like for me.

i voted! and i hope everyone voted for the HR bouncing off of canseco's head for the best rangers moment. i love that José Martínez's father hit that HR, everything about is perfect

I voted for Canseco too! What other Rangers moment is there to vote for? I guess Ryan's no-hitter would be the less jokey vote...What about the Cardinals, KM? I almost voted for Freese, but I deferred to history and went with Ozzie.

What other Rangers moment is there to vote for?
...What about the Cardinals

i ended up voting for Freese's Game 6 HR for the Cardinals. and i wonder, if that game had gone the other way, if Josh Hamilton's 2-run HR in the top of the 10th would have been the top Rangers moment?

i almost voted for Ozzie's HR in game 5 of the '85 NLCS. i was just a year or two too young to watch it with any comprehension, when it happened, but it still gives me chills to watch it. i know it was the first HR ozzie ever hit from the left side in the big leagues (did he ever hit one in the minors or before? i need to find out). and of course, "go crazy folks, go crazy!", the beers flying and ozzie pumping his fist.

i think one that should have been on the list was adam wainwright's curveball to beltran to close out the 2006 NLCS.

I can't remember if it was one of the choices (and can't check because I've voted), but the Rangers' first great moment was probably David Clyde's first start on 6/27/73. He'd just turned 18 a couple of months earlier, and there were 35,000 people at Arlington Stadium. He beat the Twins 4-3. His line: 5 innings, 1 hit, 2 runs, 7 strikeouts...and 8 walks. (The next guy got a four-inning save.)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX197306270.shtml

Drew Hutchinson's gotten an invite to spring training--should have held off the thread title.

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/toronto-blue-jays-announce-five-minor-league-contracts-including-some-old-friends

In the Unlikely Event Drew Hutchison Posts a Sub-5.00 ERA, How Will You React? (Toronto Blue Jays 2016)

Hutchison's ERA in 2016 wound up being 5.25

Haven't had a chance to read this yet, looks like it could be a useful summary:

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/blue-jays-looking-back-at-the-first-18-months-of-the-ross-atkins-era-in-toronto

I didn't know that they traded Pearce for Espinal.

I never thought that Anthopoulos was treated unfairly, he eventually built a WS contender in his fifth year but it was a win-now team without a solid core of homegrown talent, the fall could have been brutal. In the end it worked out fine for everyone, Anthopoulos did a much better job in Atlanta that he did in Toronto (and won a WS), and the Jays are an exciting team again.

AA inherited a solid team with a ton of young talent in Atlanta. i think he's a solid GM, but he really lucked out with that Atlanta gig.

In 2015 I was kind of resigned to "Well, we won but AA traded away our future," but I don't think any of those guys panned out, did they? So you can get lucky. You can trade away Jeff Bagwell or Fred McGriff or Zack Wheeler for a little bit of short-term gain, or you can trade away Daniel Norris.

I wouldn't say he lucked out, he's been there for five years now, added a lot more young talent, and has them set up as a perennial 95-win club for the next few years.

The Norris trade could have looked bad down the line (a front line young starter vs two months of David Price) but was absolutely the right move. Wasn't Shapiro really down on that trade?

Making the trade look even better is that, after his spectacular half-season with the Jays (9-1, 2.30), Price walked away (as everyone knew he would) and was never that great again...with two huge asterisks: his mediocre post-season in 2015 for the Jays, and his great WS with the Red Sox in 2018, where he should have been named MVP.

We just signed Brandon Belt for ~10M?

I think Syndergaard and D’Arnaud were the only prospects that sort-of panned out in the big trades leading up to the playoff runs

You have undoubtedly seen this Belt #content, clem?

Via a blog post from 2019... Brandon Belt LOVES the chicken fingers at the Ritz Carlton in Toronto.

Signing bonus, @BlueJays? 🐔

(h/t: @JaysKid_RHP) pic.twitter.com/zCol9HBnq0

— Tim and Friends (@timandfriends) January 10, 2023

Brandon Belt loves the chicken tenders from The Ritz-Carlton Toronto, so you know we had to try them 🍽️ pic.twitter.com/7BjdeOgscK

— Tim and Friends (@timandfriends) January 10, 2023

My brother-in-law was telling me about that right after they picked him up...Pretty funny; he might be our new Joe Biagini.

I think I meant to say Jason Grilli...the guy who was a really colourful character.

Grilli was angry from what I remember. Biagini was the hilariously awkward guy

Yeah Belt is 100% that. I hope he does well in Toronto!

I'm really getting the two of them confused...Wasn't Grilli the one who was so demonstrative after striking out someone, a real gung-ho guy? Maybe I did mean Biagini.

Ya, angry/intense - not at all disarmingly goofy as biagini. Also doesn’t help that grilli was like almost 7 feet tall!

not sure where to post this (not hot stove, no 2023 thread yet) so i'll post it on the highest ranking active ilx team thread

https://i.imgur.com/1CgP7ii.jpg

I think I saw that; there was another mlb.com writer who picked the Jays for the WS.

I feel good about them, but I'm not quite there yet. Guerrero having another 2021 would go a long way towards making that ranking above happen.

i know they force sports journalists to pick WS favorites and stuff like that, but it seems like a waste of time to me. the dodgers of the last 7 years should have won at least 5 world series or so. baseball in the postseason is always surprising and confounding.

i'm probably shaped by the cardinals front office philosophy at this point, but i always just root for them to make the playoffs. i'm thrilled when they do, then i hope for the best from there and hope it's entertaining

i think a good way to judge a team is how fun they are to watch, and off the top of my head, the jays have vlad jr, bichette jr, and of course the center of the solar system, alejandro kirk. that's a pretty fun team

Sometimes I wish they were maybe 3% less fun, and a little more focused--why I liked Marcus Semien so much--but when they're winning, yes.

Cardinals are amazing. I'm looking at their franchise page, and they've only missed the playoffs seven times this century (15/22), have only been sub-.500 once, and all that despite (I think) doling out much less money that the most extravagant spenders. They've got to be the most cost-effective franchise by far. The Rays come to mind, but they're only 8/22 at making the playoffs.

Bichette's the last guy they haven't settled with (and who could still go to arbitration):

https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-2023-arbitration-deadline-agreements

In my very large sample size of six or seven people, everyone I know is down on him to one degree or another. He's definitely not a rate-stat/sabermetric kind of player, but he still manages to keep his OPS+ in the 120-130 range, and he's 8.5 WAR the last two seasons. September saved him last year. I hope he stays.

Plus he has exactly the kind of hair I wanted in high school but could never manage--forgot to mention that.

Hopefully that’s the basis for his arb case.

^^^One of my No-Bo sample people!

I take it you think he'll lose if it goes to arbitration? I don't know (and don't know what he'd be asking for)--he's got some of those flashy old-school stats that I thought might carry weight with an arbiter (league leader in hits, pretty good number of XB hits/runs/RBI). Now if Keith Law is the arbiter, he's in trouble.

1,400 comments on the Sportsnet FB post about this. He is a lightning rod.

Bichette has reportedly filed at $7.5 million, while the Blue Jays have filed at $5 million. The $2.5 million spread between the two sides is the largest in the league.

According to the Star...which tells me they're quite happy to see him walk; that seems like a relatively small difference if they wanted him to stay.

i don't know, i wouldn't necessarily equate arguing about arbitration (especially about the largest difference in the league) with being ok with him leaving. this is his first time through arbitration, right? if they gave him 2.5M more this year, then next year he would do it again and make the difference even larger, and then again during the third year, and that's on top of the natural increases in salary he'll get through arbitration anyway.

not trying to defend owners here, but every team has an interest in paying the players something close to what the arbitrator decides, because every team is going to want to show their players that they want them to stay, and every player is going to want way more than what they'd get through arbitration. for example, let's say they give bichette what he asked for, no questions, to show that they like him. what is danny jansen going to do next year?

(i hope it goes without saying that i'm in favor of the players getting paid what they deserve, compared to the enormous share of revenues that owners claim for themselves. i'm just saying the owners, being coldhearted rich dudes, are not going to go out of their way to do that.)

(also i think one ridiculous thing about arbitration, and something that affects irl managerial decisions, is that the arbitrators are stuck in the 1980s and still include shit like Wins and Saves in their formulas to come up with fair payments. that surely plays a role in how players and managers will go out of their way and harm their team's chances of winning in order to secure the all-important Win and Save, in some situations -- it actually affects their salaries!)

Thing is, if they win the arbitration case, I just can't see him staying--especially if he has a big year. It's like Joe Pesci in Raging Bull flipped upside down: "If you lose, you lose--if you win, you still lose."

I now see he's not a FA until 2026...so yeah, there's lots of time to make nice. I was thinking this was his walk year, which shows how closely I follow the money side of the game.

Yes, I was coming to post that, they still have years left to work out an extension.

More relevant IMO -- Vlad got $14M, so why should Bichette get only half that? They had nearly the same WAR last year.

I was very much thinking of Vlad's agreement when I said $2.5M seemed like a small difference. Not just last year, either: even including Vlad's huge 2021, they're not that far apart over the last two seasons (10.7 for Vlad, 9.5 for Bo) or for their careers (13.4 for Vlad, 12.9 for Bo). Do I think Vlad's the better, more valuable player? Sure. But if salary is based as much on what you've done as the ceiling that you think is there, twice as much seems disproportionate. And nearly three times as much--$14.3M vs. $5M--is just wrong.

although they "avoided arbitration" by coming to an agreement, that salary - $14.3M for Vlad - is heavily informed by what he would get if he did go to arbitration. and again, (and this is just my opinion but i think it's well supported by evidence - arbitrators don't use WAR to determine the value of player. they're stuck on old school stats. one thing they heavily, heavily reward for position players is home runs. they love home runs. Vlad hits more home runs. Vlad gets more money.

that probably seems like a gross simplification of what's going on, but it plays a huge role

arbitrators have a lot of similarities to hall of fame voters. think of bill james' hall of fame monitor. vlad has a rookie of the year, 2 all-star games, a runner-up for MVP, and a ton of home runs. bo bichette is a well-rounded player who is not the best at anything -- BORING! Vlad gets more money. (and i think we would both agree that Vlad deserves more - just probably not THAT much more)

oops - Vlad didn't get rookie of the year. but he did get a gold glove.

That makes sense to me. Like I said earlier, Bo does have some old-school flash--kind of like a young Juan Samuel--but Vlad's is brighter. I still would have given him the $7.5, but I see what you're saying (and about the future ramifications of doing so).

it's the most boring idea of all time, but i truly think if they revamped the arbitration process to make it align with what a good baseball player is, it would change the game. (it would probably also lead to even more games where the starter goes 4 innings and a handful of other pitchers close out the game -- it would drive things even more toward efficient run production/prevention)

I’d be surprised if the everyday game strategy had anything to do with possible arbitration outcomes.

I thought the arbitration process depends more on how the case is presented? If Bo's people present a WAR-based argument then the management will have to build a case in response. I don't think the arbitrator steps in and says "wait, he didn't hit 40 HRs so he can't make more than $X".

I know they do look at salaries around the league, that is, how much other players of comparable ability, age, and league experience are making (or have made in recent years). It goes far beyond just relying on the stats that the arbitrator memorized on baseball cards when he or she was growing up.

Something I wrote in the Baseball Books thread a few years ago after reading a book on the '70s A's dynasty. (I should be careful--my idea of a funny story isn't everybody's around here.)

Hilarious how ill-equipped Finley was for the first set of arbitration hearings in 1974. Across the rest of the league, the owners won 25 or 33 cases--a combination, I'm guessing, of institutional bias and poor representation. Finley, though, lost five out of eight. The players would come armed with mountains of statistics (a few them were represented by Jerry Kapstein, the Scott Boras of his day; Reggie even had Marvin Miller arguing his case), Finley would pace the room and say things like "Mr. Reggie Jackson is a superstar...Gentleman, I ask you: what is a superstar?" When he was pitted against Ken Holtzman, he'd tell the arbitrator that Holtzman would be lost without Rollie Fingers; an hour later, arguing against Fingers in front of the same arbitrator, he'd say that Fingers only piled up saves because of Oakland's great starting pitchers. The suggestion is that Finley never recovered from the reality of arbitration, and just became (even) more and more erratic and resentful for the rest of the decade.

Mark Shapiro, representing the club: "Mr. Bo Bichette is dynamic...Gentleman, I ask you: what does it mean to be dynamic?"

Personally, I never get tired of stories where Finley makes an ass of himself.

You could almost turn that into a whole Mad-type running feature: "Charlie O. Finley Arbitration Strategies We'd Like to See."

Brian Cashman: "They tell me Mr. Aaron Judge hits home runs...Gentleman, I ask you: what is a home run?"

Carlos Correa's counsel: "They tell me Mr. Carlos Correa is a physical risk...Gentleman, I ask you: what isn't a risk in this world we live in?"

tl;dr warning: i'm just trying to share some things i read last night and this morning that i thought were interesting. sorry to post a giant blob of text, feel free to skip!
------

I thought the arbitration process depends more on how the case is presented? If Bo's people present a WAR-based argument then the management will have to build a case in response. I don't think the arbitrator steps in and says "wait, he didn't hit 40 HRs so he can't make more than $X".

i think this is right, NoTime, and the way i was talking about it was kind of oversimplifying things. but i do think there's been a historical bias toward traditional metrics. there was a series on arbitration on fangraphs a few years ago that, if you're one of the few people on earth who wants to spend their sunday morning reading about baseball arbitration, you might like!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-fix-mlbs-salary-arbitration-system-introduction/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-fix-mlbs-salary-arbitration-system-changing-the-either-or-model/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-fix-mlbs-salary-arbitration-system-evidence-and-admissibility/

Also:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/10/mlb-trade-rumors-arbitration-model.html
http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25722707/jeff-passan-wild-wonky-world-mlb-salary-arbitration
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-salary-arbitration-process-breakdown-spring-training-2016/4jkawqkczi8i17cb4rhqjxseh

it's a lot. but a couple things worth highlighting:

1) here's an overview of how it's supposed to work:

The information the player and team can use during the hearing to present their case is governed by Article VI, Section E, Part 10 (a) & (b) of the CBA. This information includes the player's contribution to the team during the past season (e.g., the player's on-field performance and other qualities such as leadership and fan appeal), the length and consistency of the player's career contributions, the player's past compensation, the existence of any physical or mental defects, the team's recent performance (e.g., the team's record, improvement and attendance) and comparative baseball salaries.

The panel gives the most weight to each side's presentation of comparable baseball salaries. Here, the player and team can only compare the contracts of players whose service time does not exceed one annual service group above the player's service group. For example, Yankees starting pitcher Michael Pineda, who is entering his second year of salary arbitration, would be compared to other starting pitchers who were also entering their second year of salary arbitration.

Information the panel cannot consider during the hearing includes the financial position of the team or player, testimonials or press comments regarding the team's or player's performance, prior contractual negotiations between the team and player, any costs associated with the salary arbitration process (i.e., attorney's fees), and salaries in other sports or occupations.

2) the arbitrators use a variety of methods, and often aren't experts on baseball:

Often, analyses of MLB salary arbitration focus on the fact that the hearings typically only consider traditional, “old school” statistics.

Another quirk to the arbitration process is that it usually only factors in “baseball card statistics” rather than more sophisticated metrics. While teams signing free agents are typically up to speed on sabermetrics, the arbitration process does not account for them. Counting stats are important, as is playing time in general. Since labor lawyers typically sit on arbitration panels, the concept of “making it to work every day” is something that holds value.

That last sentence is something else important to focus on: salary arbitrators are typically randomly selected labor lawyers. And while some have a comprehensive knowledge of baseball, it isn’t their day job: arbitrators usually hear many different types of cases, with many different fact patterns. That means that a baseball salary arbitrator may well also arbitrate cases on entirely different matters.

3) to the extent that they use stats, it tends to be old school:

Another quirk to the arbitration process is that it usually only factors in “baseball card statistics” rather than more sophisticated metrics. While teams signing free agents are typically up to speed on sabermetrics, the arbitration process does not account for them. Counting stats are important, as is playing time in general. Since labor lawyers typically sit on arbitration panels, the concept of “making it to work every day” is something that holds value.

Hitters are typically evaluated using batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases and plate appearances. There are some positional adjustments, but typically the added defensive value of a shortstop relative to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration hearings as it is on the free agent market. Hitters also can receive larger arbitration awards if they have unique accomplishments, such as winning an MVP award. Pitchers typically are evaluated using innings pitched and earned run average. Starting pitchers are rewarded for wins, and relievers are rewarded for saves and holds. Unique accomplishments, such as Cy Young Awards, matter for pitchers as well.

3) from above, "The panel gives the most weight to each side's presentation of comparable baseball salaries." I think this, compared with the arbitrators maybe not being baseball fans, is where sometimes they start to lean on the old school stats. not always, and as NoTime mentioned, it would depend on how the representatives want to present their case. but if the arbitrators are old school guys, or if they're random labor lawyers, it may be easier to make a case using the stats they're most likely to be familiar with. maybe this has changed in recent years, as advanced metrics become more mainstream.

4) some really, really hilariously weird and dumb stuff happens in these hearings

Last January [2018], as they tried to convince a three-person arbitration panel that Mookie Betts deserved the $7.5 million salary they were offering and not the $10.5 million he requested, the Red Sox fashioned a novel approach in the typically staid, lawyerly arbitration room: They played a video talking about how good Kris Bryant was.

The purpose, multiple sources in the room told ESPN, was not simply to lavish praise on the Chicago Cubs’ third baseman but to make their case: As great as Mookie Betts may be, he isn’t Kris Bryant.

what's funny about this is that mookie betts is better (arguably, much better) than kris bryant. that kris bryant video must have kicked ass!

one last addendum - and this one is excruciating, sorry -, but upthread when i mentioned that i thought changing the arbitration process would change how the game is played, i had this in mind:

"Starting pitchers are rewarded for wins, and relievers are rewarded for saves and holds."

i don't think reworking arbitration would fundamentally turn the game upside down or anything. i just think it would have an effect. (sorry for being wishy-washy here)

i'm sure some managers don't give a fuck about arbitration, some players are just doing their best and ignoring they money, and of course, players with more than 6 years under their belt aren't involved with arbitration any longer, anyway. but i do think that some managers (mike matheny) were known for having "their guys" that they look out for, and sometimes that would involve keeping a pitcher in longer than necessary to get the all-important "Win", or putting in "the closer" to get the all-important Save even when they were pitching for the 3rd day in a row and had no business being in the game. those extra stat opportunities are important to some younger players. not everyone is trying to max out their salary, but some players do. and for some managers, "looking out for your guys" means paying attention to that and giving them more opportunities.

(it's possible i have just been traumatized by mike matheny and am still searching for explanations to things that have no answers)

as penance for derailing the blue jays thread with arbitration stuff, here is a nice baseball card :)

https://i.imgur.com/cQ6y79E.jpg

You can't derail the Jays thread. First rule of the Jays thread, there are no rules! (I stole that from The Simpsons.)

James used to get hired for arbitration cases (always on the players' side, I think), and he said the one thing that could kill you with an arbiter was saying something that was provably false--probably not that different from a criminal case. If you did, everything else you said immediately became suspect. One example he used was when the Jays argued that George Bell's fielding was a liability, his side went through game logs (probably quite novel at the time) and was able to show that Bell's errors had little to no impact on runs scored or wins and losses.

(Bell's defense likely was a liability--can't remember that far back--but errors were the coin of realm then, so that was probably enough.)

The Jays should go back and try to re-litigate that: based on bWAR, Bell looks to have been a major liability in the field.

This guy sees problems ahead:

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/opinion/2023/01/14/why-contract-hardball-is-a-bad-sign-for-bo-bichettes-future-with-the-blue-jays.html

Well hopefully Bo is able to stay a little more level headed than Marcus Stroman (and his tweets)

One thing I don't get is Bichette's base stealing. Last year, he stole 24 in 25 attempts; this year, 9 out of 16. Has he gotten stupider or slower? I would have thought at his age, that would be relatively steady year to year.

― clemenza, Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Noticed that too and can offer no explanation

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall), Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Leo Morgenstern has the explanation (it's long): https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-bo-bichettes-wheels-fell-off-in-2022/

Stroman was the exception here. When the sides take each other to court some unflattering things will be said, it's a business. It shouldn't affect things going forward.

Why the Jays don't negotiate extensions with their young players is a different issue, but then again, the players might not want it. Extensions were more common in the years leading up to the last labour agreement when free agency signings were more uncertain. After this offseason's windfall for FA's, I don't think anyone of the caliber of Bo/Vlad will rush to sign a long term deal until the year before they hit free agency at the earliest.

Long way off, but this looks promising:

https://ca.yahoo.com/sports/news/blue-jays-sign-international-free-agent-enmanuel-bonilla-to-franchise-record-bonus-173744656.html

That entire piece can be summed up by “just dumb luck I guess”! A lot of new acronyms in there for me, which I expect to forget most of. Interesting that he supposedly got super lucky in 2021. So I guess I can look forward to him getting thrown out a little less next season.

whoops - i was talking about the piece on Bichette and his speed vanishing

That was my conclusion too, after my eyes glazed over and I skipped ahead to the end:

His 2021 season represented something like his 80% percentile outcome, while his 2022 season represented something like his 20% percentile outcome. He got “lucky” one year and “unlucky” the next, and those two years happened to come back-to-back.

Fun Fact: Daulton Varsho was born 9 months and 1 day after his dad Gary's final MLB game.

(via u/thedeejus) pic.twitter.com/PiBdBpa9Vm

— Baseball GIFs (@gifs_baseball) January 27, 2023

I don't really remember this guy, but look at the photo--he's hitting cross-handed, no?

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/former-blue-jays-utilityman-getting-one-last-shot-world-baseball-classic-dominican-republic

OK, I guess it could be that he bats left and that's coming out of his swing.

boneface was switch, maybe he concocted a third swing

Just noise, but seriously: you're going to question Alek Manoah's work ethic? I think the guy would like nothing better than to throw 300 innings.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2023/02/02/my-job-isnt-to-please-you-blue-jays-ace-alek-manoah-speaks-out-after-analyst-questions-his-work-ethic.html

stroman also wasn't able to stay away from this one!
clearly that analyst is a clown, but i think manoah should have just stayed above and ignored him. dude's gonna have a rough time of it, if he feels the need to respond to every half notable clown spewing bs.

Are you trying to tell me that Marcus Stroman won't stop tweeting?

literally incapable!

Can't Stop Won't Stop: the Marcus Stroman Story.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-bo-bichette-agree-to-multi-year-contract-avoiding-arbitration/

"In the meantime, Bichette gets the biggest payday of his career — while terms haven’t been announced, one source suggested $33.5 million or so would be a fair number for the next three seasons."

glad that arb stuff is behind us for Bo. next up is putting that long-term-contract ring on Vlad's finger!

vlad seems destined to get a 14-year / $1.9 billion deal with the padres or something

(er, numbers exaggerated but not enough to seem that exaggerated. maybe he gets 10 years and a mere 400 million or something like that)

Considering how young he is (and what happened in the SS market) a 10 year deal wouldn’t feel unreasonable

Hey! (Even though he won't have a bat in his hand.)

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/encarnacion-returns-blue-jays-coach

just watched Tiedemann throw his first spring training inning. wow did the kid look good.

I'm so slow on up-and-coming players (I'm the guy who basically said "Who's Kershaw?" here about three years into his career). So I'm looking at his line for last year for the first time--pretty awesome over three different leagues.

Not a lot of innings - but he did that at 19!!!
Stuff was great. Electric fastball, great change and a fade away slider he located perfectly to end the inning.

Sort of a nothing story that is nonetheless interesting (and will be a contentious thing on social media for a few days):

https://torontosun.com/sports/baseball/toronto-blue-jays/no-jacket-required-blue-jays-pack-away-home-run-jacket-as-part-of-gritty-new-attitude

I'll half miss it, half won't.

(Sorry for the Sun link, Thermo, it's all I can find.)

Deep breath: https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-exits-right-knee-discomfort.

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/blue-jays-jose-bautista-to-be-added-to-level-of-excellence

Hardly a surprise, great news, but I always assumed he and Encarnacion would go up there together. Their prime Blue Jay years exist almost in lockstep. They're like Maddux/Glavine, Trammell/Whitaker, etc. Maybe it's just economics: two big showcase days are better than one.

Obvious Bats was going to go up there. EE I’m not so sure about.

You don't think so? Except for Henke inexplicably not being up there, I can't think of anyone else who'd be the next logical choice. But if that's where they do draw the line, just above Henke, then no, I guess he isn't a sure thing.

This is as good a place as any to repost some things I wrote in 2009 -- marvel at my innate (in)ability to spot future superstars. In my defense: Cito Gaston was managing the team and I was pissed off all season long:

Whose Baseball Team Is This? (2009 Blue Jays Thread)

Looking at Encarnacion/Bautista's time with the Jays:

EE: .268/.355/.522, 136 OPS+, 4.1 WAR/162, 1 incredible, iconic postseason HR
JB: .253/.372/.506, 136 OPS+, 5.0 WAR/162, 1 super-incredible, iconic postseason HR

Pretty damn close offensively; more defensive value for Bautista.

NoTime: you don't even mention Bautista in that post--how did not see that he was going to hit 54 HR in 2010?

Clem -- check the end of the first paragraph!

Snider never panned out (for any team) but he *was* regarded as a can't miss prospect by just about everyone. Good thing Joey Bats saved the team by retooling his swing!

Stepped on my own joke--you did mention him...(What you say is really funny, not that I'm any better at prognostication).

I liked him--and he was treated shabbily--so glad to hear this:

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/pat-tabler-blue-jays-new-gig

i like him, but was not a fan of him as a broadcaster.

From Dave Fleming's annual predictions (which he treats as a goof):

"This is a very small ledge to go out on, but I think Bo Bichette will either come in second the AL MVP race, or win it outright."

https://www.billjamesonline.com/bold_predictions_for_2023/

that's interesting! wouldn't have expected James to be too huge on Bo since he doesn't walk alot and his defence is mediocre

It's a guy who writes for James, not James himself. I like him; his predictions are intriguing, and he usually revisits to see how he did. Bo would have to have some really flashy old-school stats to get himself into an MVP race--he'll probably never have a really high WAR for the reasons you mention.

This doesn't quite jibe with his Bo prediction (or at least not with Bo winning):

"Bold time: Adley Rutschman will have a 10.0 WAR season in 2023."

As far as I can tell, Piazza's 8.7 bWAR in 1997 is the highest ever by a catcher. So it's probably safe to say a 10.0 would be worth an MVP.

Not if it’s 8 WAR of pitch framing!

My category is the Blue Jays for the monthly Zoom trivia group I'm part of.

Questions: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1RE-5sucHGRKMruARoDZNvgux8EI5qy_hz4zw19s7HfI/edit?usp=sharing

Answers: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1v5Q0-b6rZnLXH0xSASkzTr0TmApXzsZq3VVYvI9KDNg/edit?usp=sharing

Realize that the first few questions are ridiculously easy...You can't assume people share your interests, so you have to have a few gimmes at the start.

Damn dude. #4 & 5 are tough!

the image for #6 D':<

sorry – 5 &6 are the really tough ones. tho i had also forgotten about #4

I added the question about the Caribbean pipeline this morning and made #10 a bonus, which shifted some of the numbering.

What an epic game to start the season

Saw the Jays score their early runs, went for dinner, tied when I got back, skipped out, caught the end online while in the middle of my trivia thing (where people mostly tanked on my Blue Jay quiz).

It was pretty tough!

Can't remember an Opening Day game as good as that.

you'd think we'd just won the world series judging by the celebrating going on at the (very awesome) bar i was at. after that wild up and down, back and forth game; Romano coming in and just shutting things down was epic.

Was surprised Manoah coughed up the lead. No cause for concern, right? I didn't see much of him, but in the little that I saw, it struck me that he felt a little rushed by the pitch clock (yet I always thought of him as a fast worker).

he did get down to one second once. later on, his rhythm was obviously disrupted as he was futzing around with the buttons on his arm. wouldn't be surprised if he lets Kirk call his next start

Bassitt gave up nine runs in 3-1/3 today.

Apparently he is not a fan of the new pitching rules

Starting staff not off to the best start.
Wonder if Kikuchi can keep that spring training energy going tomorrow

Jays starters so far: 18.1 IP, 10.94 ERA
Rays starters so far: 23.0 IP, 0.39 ERA

Didn't see any of today's game (afternoon?), but way to go, Manoah.

It literally just ended 10 mins ago!

My internal clock is still back in February.

What a wild game today. Missed the Jays' comeback--dinner--but caught the last three innings. 12-10, bottom of the 10th, two out, bases loaded, Trout and Ohtani coming up. Richards goes full on Trout, bounces the next halfway to the plate--lucky two runs didn't come in. So 12-11, Ohtani up, Mayza came in and got him to ground out.

Matt Chapman might be a good guy to lay a modest MVP-bet on--he's not even on this tracker yet:

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/mlb/nl-al-mvp-odds/

I do realize how ridiculously early it is. I only bring it up because he did have 6th- and 7th-place finishes with the A's, and his glove means he has to do less on offense, and right now he's hitting lights out.

Kind of amazing that the Jays have had 10-9 and 12-11 wins already...and I thought it was a team built on pitching and defense!

Those last two games were just nuts. Reminds me of the 92 team where even if they fell behind early you knew there was a good chance they could catch up

I think sometimes announcers and mlb.com overdo it on certain catches in search of highlight reels--you watch the clip, and you'll see an outfielder jump a few inches when he doesn't even really need to. That Kiermaier catch last night, though, was something to behold. (Followed, of course, by "Are you kidding me?", because every announcer has a recording of that programmed into him at birth.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUTfNhDNoEQ

Reminds me of the 92 team where even if they fell behind early you knew there was a good chance they could catch up.

― FRAUDULENT STEAKS (The Cursed Return of the Dastardly Thermo Thinwall)

I hereby anoint you Thermo the Magnificent.

was at the game last night and my god was it a blast.

6/8 wins are now come from behind!!

Bo 5-5, hitting .391.

Disappointed they had the lead the entire game!

was at the game today. busy, sunny. got to see a lot of the new features, enjoyed the standing area in rf where it kinda overhangs the field. great game, great defensive plays. feels good man, to be the brick wall that the rays ran into. hoping for a sweep, our 4/5 SPs did a terrific job!

gotta say i'm thrilled with how this series has started! no expectations for tomorrow tho, vs McClanahan

I guess I shouldn't be surprised, with the Rays due for a reality check, but I am. And if they sweep, wow.

As perplexing as ever. (I mean, I know the Rays were due, and the Astros are the Astros, but still.)

"I know the Rays were due"--that didn't quite come out right. Due to bounce back from the two losses, I meant.

Third good start in a row by Bassitt. I feel a little sorry for him, in that he got hammered so badly his first start, it'll probably take him till the All-Star break to get his ERA under 4.00, and maybe not even then.

i think he's having some serious trouble with the new pitching rules. the short timeframe to select a pitch and start your motion is a lot more deal-able with for a two-pitch closer vs a 6-pitch Bassitt. looks like he (and possibly Schnider) had a talking to from the ump last night about something... my guess is he maybe wasn't coming all the way set each time before starting his motion and they maybe got a warning after someone noticed

As Lou Reed once said, it's called bad luck.

https://ca.yahoo.com/sports/news/blue-jays-star-george-springer-is-off-to-a-cursed-start-to-mlb-season-200820692.html

Found this rather surprising: Gausman's 11 K today only the second time ever a Jay has struck out 11 in Yankee Stadium (Clemens the other).

Starters’ combined ERA last 7 games, including tonight: 0.96

(all QS)

ok i’m not sure the total numbers but we can add on 5.2 IP 0 RA for the starter Kikuchi to this run of amazing starts, but the main story today might be that the bullpen struck out 9 of the last 10 batters!? for a total of 17.

Looking forward to the at least competent Mariners. Firing on all cylinders right now

Really happy to see them sweep the kind of team they need to periodically sweep.

so the last 8 starts: 0.86 ERA / 0.69 WHIP

Manoah's struggling (100 pitches in five innings, four walks), but he bulldozed through. If Springer and Varsho can get going, their offense will be tough 1-9.

Kind of bored with the whole Gatorade thing, but today--Varsho's walk-off--I loved it.

Kind of amazed by this: first time the Jays have ever started 18-9.

Down 4-0 by the time I turn on the TV; Jays go up 8-4, I head out to the gym. Come back, down 10-8. What the hell happened!?

Jays started 18-9 in 2009 & 1992 fwiw

what happened wuz: Richards, Bass and Garcia. Romano and Swanson unavailable.

did you see Merrifield seemingly walking and striking out in the same AB? Apparently there was a balk called on the first 3-2 count

Disgruntled old guy looking for new favourite team.

Jays have scored 51 runs in Kikuchi's seven starts (not all while he was still in the game--a better road-to-recovery even than developing a new pitch.

Missing end bracket after "game"...

I don't know what's going on with Manoah, if it's just a normal shaky stretch or if it has something to do with not adjusting to the pitch clock. Eight starts: two exceptional, the other six mediocre or poor.

Was at a movie, so just caught the tail end on the radio, but, if I heard right, Bassitt threw the Jays' first CG since Stroman in 2017, and first CG shutout since Buehrle in 2015. That's almost a decade--I know I shouldn't be amazed, but I am.

Me, three weeks ago: "it'll probably take (Bassitt) till the All-Star break to get his ERA under 4.00, and maybe not even then."

He's down to 3.49. Minus his opening-day meltdown, he's given up 10 earned runs in 45.2 IP: 1.97.

Whoah! Highlight of the year so far.

what, all the times the Braves ran into each other like Little Leaguers?

I was at a movie this afternoon, so just caught the last inning.

Manoah getting roughed up again. Two excellent starts out of 9, not even one other quality start. I've probably forgotten someone obvious, but Judge might be the biggest Jay killer since Brett.

Judge (before tonight's HR): 98 G, 28 HR, .285/.385/.558
Brett: 163 G, 22 HR, .321/.402/.551

Judge and possible sign-stealing last night seems to be a story. Going by his career record against the Jays, I'm not putting much stock in it.

Yeah, there's no way he'd hit that AAAA-pitcher's hanging slider that drifted into his hot zone like a gigantic meatball without some covert tech.

You may as well be talking about Manoah these days.

(Just realized you are! I thought his second one was off someone different.)

Um, good company at the bottom at least!

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/blue-jays-alek-manoah-is-experiencing-a-near-unpredented-fall-from-grace-185226741.html

Couldn't watch tonight, but wow, Bassitt almost has his ERA under 3.00. When you start the year by giving up 9 runs in 3 innings, that's a pretty remarkable thing to manage by mid-May.

Don't mean to fixate on Manoah, but thought this was something: last year, batters hit under .200 off his slider; this year, almost .370.

Had some fantasy they were going to win 100 games this year; scratching out another wild-card seems to again be the best possible outcome.

Par for the course these days:

https://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/blue-jays-forced-to-pull-alek-manoah-from-game-due-to-incredible-mistake/615378

Not that they weren't going to find a way to lose anyway.

Schneider may be a bit of a bozo

He seemed to be toying with sending Kikuchi out to run in extras today, until Baltimore blew it wide open. Not sure how long a leash he has, but this is turning into a disaster in the making.

We're currently in last place, but are tops in the league in another very important stat:

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2023/5/18/23728526/blue-jays-hot-dogs-loonie-stat-mlb-toronto

I'll be down for the Aug. 15 game against the Phillies, but (diabetes II) will avoid the hot dogs. So maybe this guy need to make an adjustment (xHD+) for medical factors.

If there's a silver lining to this nightmare (there isn't--I'm just pretending), it's that Manoah probably needed a dose of humility. He's getting enough to last him till he's 30.

Curious as to how they handle this: write the year off and wait, do something dramatic (top of the list would be bailing on either Vladdy or Bo), fire Schneider (seems doubtful, but who knows). They fired Jimy Williams 36 games into the season in '89, but there was no WC then.

Bo is so streaky, that I expect he'll go into funk at some point in the near future, so I'll enjoy this while it lasts: one of the best players in the game right now (tied with Acuna for second in bWAR behind Franco), has pushed his career average over .300 and career slugging pct. to almost .500, is following through on Dave Fleming's MVP prediction, and has three HOF'ers on his Similarity-Score list through 24 (Lazzeri, Berra, and Banks). Also on there: Tulowitzki, Cano, Nomar, and Hanley Ramirez, which sounds about right: I still wonder if he's Juan Samuel, and could see him flaming out before he's 30.

Blue Jays pitcher Anthony Bass is under fire after he shared a social media post promoting the anti-LGBTQ campaigns to boycott Target and Bud Light over their Pride-themed partnerships and campaigns. https://t.co/u87oebUwBl

— Toronto Star (@TorontoStar) May 30, 2023

I read about this and it didn’t surprise me that he is a right wing piece of shit, but it did that he did this in spite of the Jays having some Budweiser sponsored home run thing?

Oh ok, just saw he was doing a press conference in an hour. Expect him to eat shit as well as innings in lost games. Feel sorry for Toronto fans.

'the Pride community'

I KNOW

Pretty common observation about your hometown team, but a third of the way through, they are puzzling. Except for Manoah's total implosion (getting worse), a number of things have gone well or even better than that: Bo, Chapman, Kiermaier, Gausman, Bassitt, Berrios, Merrifield. Another half-dozen guys have been just okay--not gaping holes or anything. So other than Manoah, it's hard to point one place and say "That's the problem." A bunch of the okays just have to play better, Vladdy and Springer especially, of course. (I haven't watched enough to vouch for this, but a couple of the FAN guys were saying they do a lot of boneheaded stuff on the basepaths.)

Doofus here was advocating that they go out and get Kevin Pillar on the cheap before the season started.

https://www.mlb.com/video/kevin-kiermaier-s-incredible-grab-x3777?q=kiermaier&cp=CMS_FIRST&qt=FREETEXT&p=0

Verlander/Bassitt has the potential to be a great pitcher's duel tonight, but who knows--Bassitt bounces between one extreme or the other.

Figured my post would guarantee a 9-7 game, but instead got exactly what I was hoping for: 1-0 till a Varsho HR in the 9th put it away. It was untouchable Bassitt tonight: 7.2 IP, 3 hits, no walks, 8 Ks. Verlander was great too--Showalter let him finish the 6th with the bases loaded and around 115 pitches. Struck Varsho out to end the inning.

God--haven't even turned the game on yet, and a friend posts on FB about Manoah giving up six runs in the first innings and getting pulled after 38 pitches. We're at one of Yogi's crossroads here, I think.

"first innings"--probably what it felt like watching.

One of Yogi's forks-in-the-road, that should be. One prong say minors, one says bullpen, one says IL.

Watched the first inning on replay:

Mauricio Dubon singles on a line drive to right fielder Cavan Biggio.

Jeremy Pena singles on a bunt ground ball to third baseman Matt Chapman. Mauricio Dubon to 2nd.

Yordan Alvarez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cavan Biggio, deflected by first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Mauricio Dubon scores. Jeremy Pena to 2nd.

HOU 1,TOR 0

Alex Bregman flies out to center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. Jeremy Pena to 3rd. 1 out

Kyle Tucker singles on a line drive to left fielder Daulton Varsho. Jeremy Pena scores. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd.

HOU 2,TOR 0

Jose Abreu walks. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd. Kyle Tucker to 2nd.

Corey Julks hits a grand slam (5) to left field. Yordan Alvarez scores. Kyle Tucker scores. Jose Abreu scores.

HOU 6,TOR 0

Yainer Diaz singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kevin Kiermaier.

Jake Meyers singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kevin Kiermaier. Yainer Diaz to 2nd.

Pitching Change: Jay Jackson replaces Alek Manoah.

Painful. Manoah, as you might guess, looked shell-shocked.

manoah demoted all the way to rookie league, wow

Apparently that’s where the Blue Jays have their pitching lab? Probably a better chance of doing a Halladay on him there.

Wow x 2...One thing I heard somebody here say--it might have been Dan Schulman--was that this isn't like Halladay in that they had to (literally, whoever it was stressed) start at ground zero with Halladay, things like "This is how you hold the baseball." And that that's not going to be the case with Manoah. (Though if you'd seen him last night, you might wonder.)

How far has he fallen? Something I didn't know till today, looking over all the coverage: his WHIP for his first two seasons was the lowest two-season mark for a pitcher since Walter Johnson.

Also, that complex is in Florida, so he’ll be near his family. I don’t care for the persona but I never like to see fount players struggle like the way he was doing. He had clearly gone into his head.

Young not “fount”, lol

Not crazy about his tweeting and all that myself (see comment a few above); I remember thinking at one point, "Jesus, just pitch." But I think most anybody would have felt some sympathy seeing him walk off the mound last night.

What exactly is so complex about the Florida Complex League anyway? Are the ballpark dimensions expressed as logarithms?

Gausman was lights-out again tonight: 7 IP, 13 K, 4 hits, no walks. He's leading the league in innings and strikeouts. McClanahan would almost certainly win the Cy Young today, but it may end up as another of those bWAR/fWAR contests; each one leads one and isn't Top 10 in the other. (I think the bWAR--more traditional--guy still has the advantage, which is McClanahan.)

Things that make you feel old: Homer Bush Jr. (they were talking about him on the radio yesterday) is on his way.

https://gculopes.com/sports/baseball/roster/homer-bush-jr-/10795

Hit .370 in the Western Athletic Conference of the NCAA this year...for which I don't really have any context whatsoever.

At work, haven't had a chance to read this yet. Manoah/Halladay: similarities, differences.

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/mlb-blue-jays-alek-manoah-roy-halladay-comparisons-hold-any-merit-173412788.html

what on earth

As part of their upcoming Pride Weekend, the #BlueJays plan to have Anthony Bass catch the ceremonial first pitch on Friday.

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) June 8, 2023

I really hesitate to weigh in on this, but wouldn't that be one way to demonstrate some penance? Meaningless if there's a gun to his head (like when a principal forces a kid to write a letter of apology to you), but if sincere, it's something.

It’s not remotely sincere and they should be embarrassed.

Asked Anthony Bass if he’s changed his views on the video:

“The video itself, I took it down. I felt like it was too much of a distraction. I stand by my personal beliefs and everyone is entitled to their personal beliefs, right? But I also mean no harm to any groups of people.”

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) June 8, 2023

Thanks for clearing that up. I can go back to hesitating to weigh in on this.

Yeah, wouldn’t want to make any judgment calls on a current staff member.

On-field-related post--sorry...It'll be huge if they can take this tonight. Between Gausman and Bassitt, and Berrios continuing to pitch pretty well, I'm starting to think they can withstand Manoah's banishment to Siberia. Enough to take a wild-card, anyway.

Not crazy about his tweeting and all that myself (see comment a few above); I remember thinking at one point, "Jesus, just pitch." But I think most anybody would have felt some sympathy seeing him walk off the mound last night.

― clemenza, Tuesday, June 6, 2023 4:16 PM (two days ago)

glad we've discovered the line where you will or will not hesitate to weigh in on social media posting

I find it amusing that I was told, very clearly, not to post about Hall of Fame or statistical-related matters in gyac's Magical Kingdom of Baseball thread, but turning the Jays thread into whatever it is you're turning it into is perfectly okay.

xp ceremonial pitch tweet: I thought this was a joke. It would be about him. a PR event for Bass that would obviously backfire because of the boos that would cloud the whole proceeding and trivialize the message. I really don't think it will actually happen.

Putting aside your childish dig at my thread - which I said already you are welcome in, I just do not care about the HoF at all, which is why I leave those discussions too interested parties - Bass’s conduct is extremely relevant itt. And btw, not a single member of my family follows or knows anything about baseball besides that I like it but they have sent me links about this guy’s behaviour on Twitter because it was that bad that it crossed over from baseball coverage!

The question about what the franchise will tolerate from a reliever especially when the franchise is based in a relatively liberal community like Toronto is an entirely valid one. If this guy was a Mariner I’d be posting in my thread about that.

Then, for the third or fourth time, we'll call a truce. They won tonight, I'm happy, and he won't, in all probability, last the season, maybe not even the week.

thought exercise: a baseball player reposts a video of someone calling jews ‘evil and demonic’ and calling for a boycott of jewish-owned stores. after an outcry, he deletes the post and says that he, a well-traveled and presumably literate man in his thirties, didn’t realize such a thing might be considered ‘hateful’.

he apologizes for any harm he might have caused the bris community, but defends his right to his faith and personal beliefs — which still align with those of the video. sure, the jews killed jesus and regularly drink the blood of christian children, but he regrets that they found his saying so hurtful.

then on jewish community night, the team asks a rabbi to throw a pitch to him.

i mean, bass is who he is. but the team even considering such a thing is just mind-blowing.

Jays are still being very secretive about--still being very what-the-fuck-do-we-do? about tomorrow's starter.

As is my tendency, I presented the most optimistic view of life-without-Manoah above. Just, if not more likely: Kikuchi and Berrios revert to 2022, one of Gausman or Bassitt takes a step back, and a rotating crew of TBDs in the fifth spot. Not pretty.

xp welp nevermind; bass dfa’d

(mitch white reinstated from the IL)

Was just coming here to post that, like the Red Sox thing yesterday, what was the fucking point? Just burning goodwill for what?

I assume he’s not still catching the first pitch

oh that's a relief. i was very bothered by the prospect of having to boycott this team if he caught that ceremonial pitch. I love my Jays, but that's a clear line that cannot be crossed. Good riddance, looking forward to the game.

Suspected they'd go with Mitch White, who just got hammered in 20 innings at Buffalo this year. They're going to have to engineer a trade, I think (quite sure they're very actively trying to do so). I don't know if Biggio or Espinal can net them much. I don't know what they do.

Yeah Mitch is kinda the official 6th man, so i guess they go with him as far as his performance will allow? Their lack of depth everywhere is very exposed.

I guess that 5th spot is more of an opener thing now, and they're looking for 3 or 4 decent innings from White.

I haven't followed Buffalo since Vladdy, but if they had a couple of decent replacement-level bats there, maybe they could package Biggio and Espinal together for a decent pitcher? (I say that having no idea what either's contract status is.) The Jays would lose their versatility, but that'd also be a selling point--and, if given some playing time, either guy could surprise, like Espinal did in 2021 and into 2022.

"On June 9, you'll be playing .563 baseball, four-and-a-half games up on the Red Sox, a game behind the Yankees."

I probably would have said "I'll take that." Tampa playing .700 and the Orioles taking a huge leap forward were not really on my radar.

Premature--still only 20 months removed from one of the three or four greatest Blue Jay seasons ever--but, with Manoah out of the picture for a while, I expect fan and media scrutiny of Vlad will step up. (It's been there all year, but Manoah deflected some of that.)

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/bo-bichette-not-vladimir-guerrero-jr-face-blue-jays-144841338.html

He's four-and-a-half seasons along, and in three-and-a-half of them, his OPS has been between .772 and .818--put aside 2021, and he's been pretty consistent. He's been really good on the road this year (9 HR, .321/.391/.575), but, bizarrely, he hasn't yet hit a HR at Rogers. Still a season-and-half away from free agency, but getting closer.

Trevor Richards gets the start today.

Richards was great, and then--the Domino Theory, I believe it's called--the bullpen coughed up a 3-0 lead in the late innings (including a Correa grand slam). Belt, who after a miserable April has been great the past month, looks like he might be out.

Belt is like that unfortunately. Man’s crocked. I was following him all year and I really wanted him to do well (since they should have let him retire a Giant imo). MLB posted a micd up with Vladdy a couple of weeks back and he named Belt as one of the veterans he’d played with who he considered amazing. It made me really happy for him thriving! Hopefully he’s not out too long.

Definitely turning into my dad. I turned the game off in disgust after the 7th, missed Biggio's home run.

lol

my dad always turned the penguins off when they went down two goals, which, as a-rod will tell you, is the most dangerous lead

I remember in the '92 WS, after the Jays lost the first game, they were down in the middle innings of G2 (I checked the details--down 2-0, tied it 2-2, fell behind again 4-2). My dad gave up, went to bed, and missed Sprague's HR and the Jays winning. I gave him what-for the next day: "How could you leave? It's their first WS ever--how could you miss a minute?"

As I get older, I understand. Disappointment feels worse (and the Jays, in '92, before they won, had come so close so many times the past decade), so you tend to vacate at the first sign of trouble.

As I get older, I understand. Disappointment feels worse

i'd have thought otherwise when i was young, but absolutely

why tho?

It's an interesting question, and I don't know the answer. You've experienced elation, and that's all you want. I lived and died with the Jays from '83 through '93. Now I live with them when they're playing well, and I turn my attention elsewhere when they're not. I go through a much more casual version of that with the Raptors and Leafs. Hardcore Leafs fans like my friend's father, now in his '90s...I can't even fathom what that's like.

Maybe because you have less time left yourself, the idea of using some of it to watch your favourite team lose just doesn't make sense.

kinda feel like it's more the opposite -- we've won, and it was great but only lasts for one offseason

but now there are expectations that can never be met, so we experience desolation and you/i/we now desperately want to avoid it

that does not explain your friend's father, but the leafs are on another level

maybe that wasn't really an opposite

i suppose, like the manager of the year award, it's about exceeding expectations? and once your team has won, those are your expectations

does not quite make me feel bad for yankees fans tho

In last year's playoffs vs the Mariners, I turned off G2 with the Jays ahead 7-1 and missed the Mariners' comeback. I figured the game was over, so it was better to step away and save my viewing energy for G3.

Obviously this was dumb thinking, and the younger me never would have done it. My point is that is not always about whether your team is winning or losing. No matter the situation, you get older and need more time to reset between games. If you get the feeling that the game you're watching isn't essential viewing, you might choose to turn it off.

Six in Baltimore and Texas, only one Gausman start, no off-day--not especially optimistic.

Glad I opted for a movie (looking at the linescore, I wouldn't have made it past the third inning). The enigma of Chris Bassitt continues:

5 best starts - 37 IP, 16 H, 8 BB, 33 K, 0.00 ERA
3 worst starts - 10.1 IP, 30 H, 3 BB, 10 K, 13.37 ERA

That last includes tonight.

Romano always makes me nervous, lived up to that tonight, but I've got to say, he took his hat off at one point, and right now he's about the gnarliest-looking Warren Oates/Sam Peckinpah player I think I've ever seen (or at least since the '70s, when they were everywhere).

There are obviously worse situations for a baseball fan--I wouldn't want to get saddled with a perennial doormat--but I think that rooting for an underachieving 85-win team is about as maddening and as exhausting as it gets. A dozen times during the year you think, "Okay, they're finally ready to go on a run," and a dozen times they let you down. If they were worse, you wouldn't feel any emotional stake in them at all; you know what they are. Underachieving 85-win teams spend the whole season teasing you.

what do you mean by underachieving 85-win teams.

?*

What I mean is, I think that's about how many games they'll win, 85--maybe a couple more, maybe a couple fewer--and because they were expected to do much better, maybe 93-wins+, it's very frustrating in a way it wouldn't be if they were worse, where those expectations wouldn't be there. (An overachieving 85-win season--like the Jays in '83, for instance--is very different and very exciting.)

Slight amendment: if they were playing worse, you would have let go of those expectations by now. But they're playing just well enough to keep fooling you.

That's my mindset, anyway; maybe yours is different.

yeah I definitely feel what you’re saying. For some reason I thought they were on a 90ish pace. Seems they’ve been underachieving for years now, and just missing the playoffs or getting whipped in short order when they get there. not an appealing prospect for this year, and that’s even if we have a 90+ season. I’m optimistic for the remainder of the season though, I think they’ll get up there based on some offensive luck turning around, etc.

Has Manoah tanked this team though, by virtue not only of having an historic drop-off, but due also to their lack of depth? it was mentioned during their Houston series that HOU had 3 SPs on the IL and still running a 6-man rotation out there! Imagine Toronto in that situation, currently hosting Bullpen Day until, when exactly?

I took a mental step back years ago, after seeing how something I couldn’t control could dictate my mood. I’ll enjoy the ride and hope they make the cut to vie for that hunk of metal. Only October ball can ruin my day!

90ish is actually closer--if they hold on to their lead today, they'd project to 89 wins. Which may or may not be enough for a wild-card this year.

Mahoah has obviously been the biggest problem, along with the domino effect you mention that he sets into motion. After that, the offense in general, and Vladdy, Chapman (.191/.265/.315 since May), and Springer in particular. A lot of things have had to go right go keep them on pace for 90.

In any event, maddening.

Manoah...

about that lead… does their blowing a 6-0 lead qualify as maddening or exhausting? I’m going with exhausting at this particular stage.

Can you believe it? Why did I blithely think a 6-0 lead was safe?

The Braves were a .500 team at the trade deadline in 2021 and won the WS. With 12 playoff teams, a middling team only needs a couple of decent hot streaks to sneak into the playoffs and have a chance.

For sure, I just thought the goal this year was more than fighting for a wild card and hoping for lighning to strike in the playoffs.

One nice thing about yesterday’s game was Horwitz’s debut going well.

Your return from the IL, Thermo, can only mean good things ahead for the Jays.

Much to my surprise, the Jays are dead-center across MLB in runs scored: 330 runs scored is the average, Jays have scored 330. My guess would have been that they're near the bottom--feels more like that.

Making the rounds, Brandon Belt on Ohtani leading the ASG voting for DH:

"Yeah, that's how you know it's rigged, I should be number one. And everybody knows I'm a better hitter than he is. Better DH, better leader. But here we are."

Love that--worthy of Votto or John Kruk.

When the Jays are playing well, I don't pay much mind to the schedule. They're not, so I'll take some heart from the radio people saying they're over the toughest stretch and should have an easier time for the next while. Starting with the no-longer-unbeatable A's. They really need to sweep.

Vlad's first HR at home this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDWU2SR27g4

I don't know if I mean them or me or both.

Reminiscent of the Marlee Matlin Seinfeld:

https://www.blogto.com/sports_play/2023/06/toronto-blue-jays-announcers-racy-call-misheard/

I don't know...a little muffled, but I'm not sure I hear it that way.

When you know the punchline ahead of time, you can't unhear it (one tweet alluded to this). If I had heard it as a blind test, I'm sure I wouldn't have noticed anything.

um

Alek Manoah today in his 1st FCL start:

2.2 IP • 11 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 3 K
• 2 HR

Most of the hitters Manoah faced (and his own defenders) are 18-19 years old. That’s why these numbers can’t be taken too literally, but still, this is a stunning line. #BlueJays

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) June 27, 2023

I think tonight is Gausman's first start against the Giants since leaving.

"3 punchies, let's go!"

xp

I listened to Jeff Blair and Kevin Barker go on for 20 minutes about Manoah tonight. I understood the points Blair was trying to make; Barker, not even close.

brandon mccarthy tweeted that if manoah was 'working on very specific things in the zone' then it's probably not a big deal

but if he was really trying to compete, well, that's bad

i obviously have no idea, but he doesn't *seem* like the kind of guy who's willing to get shelled in an 'official game' just to work out certain kinks

Everything I've read or heard about yesterday's start has mentioned the working-on-specific-things disclaimer. Which I sort of get, but whatever he's working on, I assume the overall goal is to get batters out, so unless it was one blooper after another...I basically agree with Jeff Blair, the radio guy I mentioned: probably best to think of him in terms of next year. For now, focus on the wild-card spot you're scratching at--obviously the team is, fans may not be. Their anemic offense wasted another great start by Gausman yesterday.

I don't think it's necessarily about getting guys out, say, if you're sticking to one zone/pitch. No one knows what's going on with him right now, which imo is the worst time to listen to sports radio speculators, especially that Barker. I'm worried about the timeline for him tho

as a manoah drafter this year i've been keeping an eye on this car crash ... schneider was saying in the press that manoah was trending back towards being called back up. maybe that was just BS. he gave a quote yesterday saying that the team was encouraged by what they saw in the rehab start in terms of his delivery, velocity etc but i have a really hard time believing that getting hammered to that degree by a *complex league* line up portends anything positive. even if 18/19 year old rookie ball hitters know what pitch is coming & its location, they still shouldn't be pummeling homers off a major league pitcher who just finished top 3 in cy young. i know manoah hasn't necessarily ever been a "stuff" kinda guy but... the stuff is simply supposed to transcend that. especially if you saw what manoah looked like in his starts this year it feels like a complete ground up rebuild mentally & physically, whatever it is they're doing now

(xpost) Barker's incomprehensible half the time; I like Blair.

That's what I mean--the disconnect between "we were encouraged by what we saw" and him getting pummeled by low rookies. (And yes, xposts, I can't see Manoah ever not being super competitive.) Haven't read this yet, but Sports Illustrated has a piece up:

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/06/28/alek-manoah-blue-jays-rookie-ball-start

I've said this before: whatever you think of him, Buck Martinez sometimes amazes me by calling a play exactly as it happens before it happens (Tabler would do that too). Jays down 7-5, bottom of the ninth, Springer on third and Bichette on second, two out; Martinez says the Jays should send Bichette on a single hit anywhere except right at Verdugo, the only guy out there with an arm. So Guerrero lines a single right at Verdugo, Bichette runs through the stop sign (and hesitates for a split second after rounding third besides), out at the plate.

i really like buck, it's just unfortunate that his voice is so terrible

Turns out Rivera, the third-base coach, initially waved him through, then threw up the stop sign. Anyway, Buck's call the only bright spot in another miserable loss.

i obviously haven't seen the play, but bo's not slow and the red sox are like the worst defensive team in history, so it does seem worth challenging that rather than needing another hit?

Thing is, it wasn't even close--and Bichette's split-second hesitation didn't really matter. Also Chapman on deck, who'd homered his last AB...I'm second-guessing here; Buck definitely wasn't.

fair enough!

You can watch the play here (right side at the bottom):

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-blue-jays/2023/07/01/717547/final/wrap

I'd probably normally agree with you, especially with the Jays so anemic offensively--it's not like they wouldn't go on to lose in extras. I was just impressed with Buck's not atypical clairvoyance.

otm

It was a bad decision by Bichette. The ball arrived and the catcher had time to get a sandwich and coffee before Bichette got there. Buck OTM.

I watched this play live & about a million times since like it’s the Zapruder film. The consensus online seems to be:

- 3rd base coach initially waved Bichette home
- Bichette ran for home but missed when the sign changed/decided to go for broke anyway
- Think he was out anyway if he tried to go back to third will probably get caught in a rundown?

So, focusing a micro lens on this particular game-ending sequence … Did you, Bo, see Rivera make the stop sign at third?

“Yeah, I saw him,” said Bichette, who had a solo blast in the third inning, his team-leading 15th home run.

That actually wasn’t entirely clarifying.

“I mean, I knew the situation. If we could score a run, I needed to be aggressive and get there. But I also know that the ball was hit to their best thrower. I kind of assumed I’d be stopped but I didn’t really see anything.”

What are you saying exactly, Bo?

“I was ready to go. I assumed I would probably be stopped because of who it was hit to. Didn’t really see anything to tell me either way.”

Bichette is simply not the sort of person who would throw anybody under the bus. He takes groundballs with Rivera before every game. If he didn’t see, he didn’t see, or there was nothing to see, or Rivera in that split-second was betwixt arm-wheeling Bichette home or holding him up. In that fraction of confusion, the blink of an eye, Bichette ever so slightly stutter-stepped, rounding third. That might have made the crucial difference, though he thinks not.

“I think I was out either way.”

“It’s a fine line because you want to be aggressive against a really good pitcher because hits are hard to come by,” Schneider continued. “At the same time with how hard Vladdy hit that ball, I think that it makes it a really tough decision to send the guy there. So I think looking at the video — I looked at it briefly — I think Luis’ hand was up and Bo’s hauling ass, Bo’s trying to score, so it’s a bang-bang play. It’s really nobody’s fault and you’re not going to say it’s on Bo or it’s on Luis. You know what I mean? It’s a play that happens really quick and just didn’t go our way.”

Sorry! A new angle has emerged, just looks like bad baserunning decisions from this angle?

Alex Verdugo silences the Rogers Centre.

Alex Cora had some heavy praise for him after the game… “He's one of the best, if not the best, defensive right fielders in the American League.”

79th percentile OAA. 94th percentile arm strength. pic.twitter.com/jIRy2mUGbs

— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) July 2, 2023

Jays liked what they saw from Manoah last time out so much, they promoted him to Double-A; he'll take the mound for the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats in 15 minutes.

This Pat Jordan book I've been reading reminded me of another possible parallel to Manoah: Steve Blass. After the Huyek-Kison chapter, the next chapter skips forward to the '71 World Series and Kison's breakthrough. Blass was phenomenal that Series--two CG wins, 7 hits, 2 runs, surefire MVP except for that guy the Pirates had in RF--and he was great again in '72, finishing second in the Cy. In '73, he couldn't throw a strike: 88 IP, 84 walks. More of the same to start '74, and that was it--gone forever.

The big difference, Blass was 31. But it was such a memorable instance of losing it overnight, it gets this in his Wikipedia entry:

A condition referred to as "Steve Blass disease" has become a part of baseball lexicon. The "diagnosis" is applied to talented players who inexplicably and permanently seem to lose their ability to throw a baseball accurately. The fielder's variant of "Steve Blass disease" is sometimes referred to in baseball terminology as "Steve Sax syndrome".

Notable victims of "Steve Blass disease" include Rick Ankiel, Mark Wohlers, Dontrelle Willis, Ricky Romero, Daniel Bard.

Romero, of course, gets mentioned a lot here.

Love this from the same Wikipedia entry: In House, MD season three, episode 21, Dr. Gregory House thinks that Dr. Eric Foreman has gotten the Yips from killing a patient in the previous episode. He briefly explains the condition and says that Dr. Foreman has lost his confidence. In his explanation he mentions, by name, Pittsburgh Pirates’ World Series champion Steve Blass as having suffered the condition.

The Season 5 episode of Northern Exposure “Blood Ties” features an explicit reference to Blass during a discussion of Dr. Joel Fleischman's sudden inability to hit a vein while attempting to draw blood.

In season 1 of Prison Playbook episode 14, the main character, Kim Je-hyuk, is attributed with Steve Blass disease when trying to make his comeback in baseball.

Crisis averted! (Kidding at both ends of that statement.) Pitched five stellar innings: 3 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts, 1 run.

Ugly loss yesterday. 0-7 against the Red Sox this year.

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/astros-legend-jose-altuve-drops-subtle-hint-about-a-future-with-the-blue-jays

Posting that not for the Altuve speculation, which seems kind of farfetched to me, but for this: "If we could dream big, adding Altuve to the already potent Jays’ lineup would definitely bring them to the next level."

"Already potent Jays' lineup"? Jesus, what universe is this guy living in?

Manoah's coming back and will start Friday in Detroit.

I don't know--I'll stop short of saying "smacks of desperation," but this really seems rushed to me.

tbf facing the tigers isn't terribly different from facing a triple-a lineup

question is can he handle even a AAA lineup

The situation is optimal--on the road, weaker team--but the whole idea to me is to let him string together maybe three solid starts in a row. I know it's about mechanics, but it's about confidence, too.

Didn't click that yesterday's rainout would mean a doubleheader today...Berrios and Lynn are both working on 1-hitters after six.

picked up a much needed 1.5 games on the Yankees and Houston today

must-see tee-vee tonight. I'm pretty certain Alek will be either completely dominant, or an unqualified disaster

Bad timing coming off a doubleheader where they used nine pitchers. I'm sure they'd like to get him out of there after five, even if--maybe especially if--he's pitching well.

i agree, there'll be a quick hook regardless

I would absolutely take him out now. Five good innings, 7-1 lead, something to build on.

I was ready to call for Schneider's head when Manoah went full on Baez; walk him, next guy hits a HR, now it's 7-3 and you have to pull Manoah mid-inning. Happily, worked out...Another HR for Mitt Wherrifield.

John Schneider has now been #BlueJays manager for 162 games, going 94-68. That is the 5th-best record in the Majors since his debut on July 13, 2022.#NextLevel pic.twitter.com/DAlM1pz168

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) July 7, 2023

Found that surprising. Definitely doesn't feel that way.

Eeyore!

I can't complain but sometimes I still do.

I suspected this might become a story when it (almost) happened:

https://bluejaysnation.com/news/blue-jays-brandon-belt-on-bunt-attempt-to-break-up-tigers-no-hit-bid-were-trying-to-win-a-ballgame

Honestly, it's such a non-story--Belt was right, not even close.

I just don't have the concentration to wade into anything this detailed, but an analysis of Vlad's disappointing season:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vlad-jr-makes-history-with-derby-win-but-hes-coming-up-short-elsewhere/

I'm down for Saturday's game--looks like we'll get Zac Gallen. Jays are countering with one of their busiest pitchers these days, TBD.

[my post disappeared, i'll try again]:

xp it's a hopeful article - increased chasing/whiffing, may need to pull more. and his fielding is becoming a liability. but if i read correctly, Vladdy's fly balls are going for outs at a rate unprecendented in the Statcast era. Safe to assume more fly balls will land/leave in the second half.

The radio people have been saying all year that he's hitting the ball hard according to advanced metrics, but with nothing to show for it. Even though I don't care about that stuff (or FIP) in the here and now--an out is an out is an out, a run is a run is a run--I do take it seriously as predictive, the idea that things eventually even out.

Possible exception: Kevin Gausman. His BABIP in 2022 was historically high, .364, so the assumption was that he was just pitching in bad luck. This year it's .337 (and for his career, .318). So there seems to be something about Gausman himself that leads to all those ground-ball singles.

Totally lucked out for tomorrow: Gausman vs. Gallen. So, based on past experience, look for a 9-7 game.

(I would have been just as happy to see Manoah's home return, but they're not pitching him this weekend.)

Damn--no Gausman, Bassit instead. Hopefully the one who doesn't give up four runs in the first inning.

Over 42,000 today, huge crowd. We were up in the 500s, so whatever was going on with Gallen in the early innings--three umpire/coach conferences around the mound--I still don't know if it was physical or ball-doctoring related. Non-stop talk with an old high school friend, but there was a game, a couple of home runs, Belt missing first base with his foot, and the Jays won. We were too late to get some hideous-looking shirt being worn by hundreds of people.

his pitchcom was velcroed to his mitt and it kept flying off!

I'm going tm, 2nd of 2 Kikuchi games for me. and they're 2 for 2 in the TD patch era

Chance to sweep, exciting. Inflation has made its final stop: Blue Jay programs, $5 since practically the change in stadiums, I think, are now $6. (Smaller page count all the time, I bet.)

Up 3-2 when I left for a walk--missed a lot, I see, but the sweep is big. Starting to think that the division is a possibility (knowing full well that the second you start think that, a tailspin is imminent).

Would this make me happy?

https://www.mlb.com/news/marcus-stroman-rumors

Of course! If it ever happened, I would, just to be consistent, urge both him and Manoah to delete their Twitter accounts, or at the very least not spend a single second worrying about Keith Hernandez and Shohei Ohtani and the New York Mets, but this rotation would be something else.

I usually expect these things to go lightly, but this one's actually a touch harsh--there are a few guys I'd rate a notch higher.

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/2023-blue-jays-mid-season-report-cards-with-letter-grades-position-players

left the game yesterday up 3-2 in the 8th bc all the clamour gets to me after a while. missed 7 runs! but they won, so all good

Would love to have Stro back! And personally I'm all for displaying their opinions on twitter if that is their wont. Baseball needs more personality

Point taken, but I just think Twitter's a distraction. When Stroman tweeted in defense of Manoah, I got that; in a way he was defending himself, since they're so much alike. What I didn't get was him weighing in on Keith Hernandez not wanting to give Ohtani his number if it came to that...it's not even your team! You're pitching great, contending for a Cy even, and you're going to pick a fight with Keith Hernandez in 2023? Supposedly Stroman thrives on stuff like this, but I'll note that his Hernandez tweet was June 29, and his starts on July 1 and July 6 were his worst in over a month. Manoah was doing that earlier in the year, getting into social-media scraps. Can't see that it did him much good, and I also question whether it helps Stroman.

Give me Marcus Semien any day.

Playing tennis, so (thankfully) missed it, but five walks and zero strikeouts for Manoah in three innings--sounds gruesome. The fact that they didn't start him against Arizona made me wonder how confident they actually are right now.

I was down for yesterday's game--should have known to not buy tickets exactly five days apart, so Bassitt again (who was great). The game felt like it took less time than getting out of the underground parking and onto the 427. They're within 4-1/2 of the Rays and Gausman's back on Saturday. My hope: land another starter and shut down Manoah for the season.

Got a reliever instead (or until):

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabrege01.shtml

A lot of strikeouts, a lot of walks.

Whether or not you agree with Schneider taking out Kikuchi in the 6th last night--one out, single, leading 1-0; 5 hits, 1 BB, 8 K to that point--he may have a problem on his hands. Read this three days ago:

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/blue-jays-pitchers-reportedly-unhappy-with-manager-john-schneiders-quick-hook

"...it appears as though some Toronto Blue Jays pitchers have expressed their frustrations with manager John Schneider" is a little sketchy, but last night couldn't have helped. I remember something James wrote once about clubhouse dissension, something to the effect that when players start saying "We'll show them," it's a good thing if "them" refers to the owner/GM, but a bad thing if it's the manager.

Yesterday, bad; today, brutal. If Teoscar really does want to come back here, like, don't sink us before you do.

Out all day, pretty sure I wouldn't have watched anyway...They're very lucky to get out of there with a win. Just from the boxscore, don't see a lot to be encouraged about re Manoah.

Knowing I will pretty much guarantee a meltdown inning in the next couple of nights, Jay Jackson so far: 14 IP, 4 hits, 3 BB, 13 K, 1 run. He was the pitching hero last night.

He's been amazing. with Green hopefully coming around soon and Genesis looking effective so far, the bullpen's looking not bad.

Looking forward to Ryu, early reports so far are very promising!

Doesn't get much worse than last night, which I unfortunately was tuned in for. Two infield hits mixed in there, one because of a bad hop.

I watched that meltdown last night as well...

7 run lead today going into b9th, do Jays fans feel safe?

123, nevermind!

We're supposed to believe professional athletes have the ability to never carry over bad thoughts from one day to the next; I don't, so I fully expected them to get trounced today.

I'm probably unduly influenced by reading the Astros cheating book right now, and how Hinch lost control of his players during his first managerial post with Arizona, but--even though they won--this seems ominous to me.

Oh wow pic.twitter.com/2AxQkBCl3J

— abbey (@aabbeeyy04) July 28, 2023

I've posted about grumblings from starting pitchers concerning Schneider above. Winning papers over a lot, but maybe he's losing the team.

(After the Ohtani HR.)

"Why would you pitch to him? He's the only one who can hit!" lol

I believe "He’s the only fucking guy on the team that can hit” is the exact French translation.

They address this in the piece, but just to state obvious: what could you possibly get in return for Mitch White? A case of Gatorade?

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/5-blue-jays-most-likely-to-be-dealt-at-the-trade-deadline

Thermo: did you have a view of the Chapman dust-up?

Alejandro finally paying ILB back for the thread title.

Man, if they could have gotten him in from third in G6 of the 2015 ALCS--he was there with none out after stealing second and third--the Jays might have gone on to win the World Series.

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/former-blue-jays-player-dalton-pompey-police-officer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1ZzTShKLlY

How's this for a slump? Springer's 1-36 and counting.

Jordan Hicks for prospects. Reading lots about how hard he throws and his strikeouts, but his stats are very middling.

it's a solid rental

i mean, he's better than joe kelly

shit, feel like the cardinals got a steal here. it's a good time to rent hicks, though - he's been more consistent this year, and the last couple months, than he has in the last several.

"steal" is not the word! it's a trade to make the jays better this year and the cardinals' rotation better around 2025.

hicks could very well be very important down the stretch for the jays (hope he is!) and be totally worth it if they can make a run in the playoffs, and i have no idea about the jays' SP depth on the farm

Brilliant catch by Austin Hayes. And demoralizing for the Jays. Bautista got a couple of terrible strike calls, bad enough that you didn't even need the replay. Like he needs extra help.

I know that WAR is supposed to tell us all the things the stupid eye-test doesn't catch, but: for the Jays fans on this thread, do you feel like Matt Chapman is the second best position player in the A.L. (and only a half-game behind Ohtani the DH)? After his phenomenal April, his slash line going into tonight's game was .217/.316//386. Great fielder, yes, but he's been an offensive albatross for three months.

This is interesting. The Jays have given Hicks #12, same number he wore in St. Louis. Encarnacion was #12 for a while, but he switched over to #10 in 2011 in advance of the Jays retiring #12 for Alomar's HOF induction. I'm sure you know the rest. So Hicks gets #12.

Hays' catch:

https://www.mlb.com/video/felix-bautista-in-play-out-s-to-whit-merrifield-936th8?t=play-your-way

Would have tied the game if he misses (Kiermaier was on first); if it had somehow gotten past the center fielder, almost certainly an inside-the-park HR to win the game.

Incredible D from the Orioles yesterday, and so close to a statement-making comeback by the Jays.

I was surprised when I learned recently how high Chapman's WAR was. He might be the best defensively, but I wouldn't say he's even the best position player on the Jays. Speaking of, I'm very anxious to hear news on Bichette's knee.

I tuned in late last night, so learned about Bichette from your post. This is promising, I guess:

https://www.tsn.ca/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-bo-bichette-day-to-day-with-right-knee-injury-1.1991159

By the way, Chapman is 8th on Fangraph's list of A.L. position players. That's more reasonable, I'd say, but still overstated. I guess I just don't appreciate the extent of his defensive contribution.

Kevin Barker, of course, is apoplectic that the Jays didn't add a hitter.

I'm really glad every year when all this ends. I'm of course interested in whatever the Jays do, but mostly it's all hyped-up noise to me. mlb.com had a piece the other day about the five trades that should happen but probably won't. If you're going to engage in speculation, may as well do it twice over.

(The Jays would be fine if Vladdy and Springer and Chapman and Varsho performed to a level somewhere near what they're supposed to.)

With Chapman, obviously I mean "hit," not "perform."

Don't know what the record is, I'll look it up, but Springer is now 0-33.

Oh yeah, Chris Davis:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/orioles-chris-davis-ends-mlb-record-54-at-bat-hitless-streak-with-two-run-single-vs-red-sox/

Go, George!

God, the Blue Jays feel like yesterday's news when the play the Orioles. Assuming Toronto's season ends earlier than Baltimore's, that's who I'll be rooting for the next day.

it's hard to accept loss after loss against the o's. But I'll be rooting for them if & when the jays are out of it. Man, George. It's hard to believe. I remember he was struggling with babip early on but he was mashing the ball. now he's just looking pretty... idk. it's bad.

Springer, 0-35, came up one AB short of the Blue Jay record--got a bloop single to knock in a run. His reaction was funny, especially he and Kiermaier dancing around over it. (Can't find video.)

After the loss today, the Jays are 8-23 vs the AL East?? I knew their record was bad, but I didn't know it was *that* bad.

God--Jays were on the verge of blowing yet another seemingly certain win, but they were saved by a baserunning error for the ages by Reese McGuire.

It was actually a terrible call by the third base coach Febles, he waved Maguire home cos he thought that ball was gone. Cora confirmed it after. But yeah, clownshow stuff from the Red Sox. At least Springer is out of that slump now.

The Jays' announcers said the same after seeing the reply, that the coach was sending him home. Here's the play if anyone hasn't seen it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPPL7NLr4dA

The guy narrating that clip says the coach was signaling to the runner on first, not waving McGuire.

McGuire, who represented the tying run, rounded the third base bag instead of holding up between second and third base to see if Kiermaier would catch it or not. Red Sox third base coach Carlos Febles, meanwhile, had his eyes on Luis Urías, the runner at first base, who represented the winning run.

“I think we all missed that one,” Cora said. “I think Reese took off and then Carlos was looking at Urías. Everybody thought it was going to be off the wall and it was a bad play — a bad baseball play.”

…
Cora said he thought Wong homered when the ball left the bat. Wong connected on a slider from Erik Swanson who had given up three straight singles with one out.

“We all thought it was gone,” Cora said. “Reese from the get-go. I was just talking to him. He thought it was gone. And then Carlos, he was looking at Urías. He just missed that one.”

pic.twitter.com/23vEp3YZlp

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) August 5, 2023

I don't think the pitcher thought it was gone, his job is to back up third or home depending on how the play develops. He walked in the direction of third until he knew where he needed to be.

The third base coach's actions were inexcusable though, if he was signaling to the runner on first, then he had plenty of time to correct it before McGuire passed him, and he didn't.

Yeah that might be a misread on my part re the pitcher cos to me it looked as though his head was down but yeah, the coach absolutely fucked up there. Plenty of blame to go round.

Davis “Vuk” “Babe” “Moustache” Schneider, drafted 849th, became the only player with 9 hits and 2 hrs in his first 3 games.

Guy’s injected this team with some much-needed energy after Bichette’s injury and a thoroughly deflating Baltimore series.

I get that you guys are very happy about him and that’s great but Belt personally remains my favourite 🥰 I will always love him!

"Oh my god, can I take my base now, I'm scared"

- Brandon Belt pic.twitter.com/WQs0TGDYol

— Brennan Delaney (@Brennan_L_D) August 6, 2023

(Seriously, great debut for Schneider).

Schneider's something else. Don't know long it will last (the just-being-good part; I expect the hitting-.800-part will end in a few minutes), but I hope he's got some of these guys looking over their shoulders.

Meaningless, I know, but this is kind of funny:

Vladdy - 109 games, 1.0 bWAR
Schneider - 3 games, 0.6 bWAR

I figured out why that made me laugh. Less to do with Vladdy and more do to with the fact that Schneider is pretty much exactly the kind of guy they had in mind when the idea of "replacement player" was developed. You're essentially saying he's worth an extra 0.6 wins above what you'd get if you replaced him with...Davis Schneider.

hadn't realized how quiet a season vlad is having. fangraphs likes him even less (0.3 fWAR, jeez)

still gonna finish his age-24 season with 700+ hits and 130+ homers tho

He's an enigma. I don't think anyone has figured out whether he's 2021 Vlad or 2019/20/22/23 Vlad. The concerning part is that those four seasons, two on each side, are all quite similar, clearly pointing you in one direction for the answer.

His slash line ranges for the other four seasons:

BA: .262-.274
OBP: .329-.339 (three of the seasons are exactly .339)
SLG: .433-.480

Not a lot of variance there. It's like four seasons of Nick Castellanos, one season of Manny Ramirez.

he still doesn't strike out much (relatively speaking)

i'm in awe of his line-drive homers but it kinda seems like, in general, he needs more launch?

i want him to rule

Its gotta be that tiny park in Buffalo they played at "home" during COVID.

That definitely helped, looking at his splits in 2020/21.

Kikuchi's got the lowest second-half ERA in both leagues at 1.24 (five starts). It has to be too good to last.

I'm sure I'm not the only person thinking this: they'd have a better lineup offensively if they play him on Saturday.

https://ca.yahoo.com/sports/news/jose-bautista-signing-one-day-contract-to-retire-with-blue-jays-121027733.html

Manoah optioned again.

I'm laughing, because I'm wondering if they had to do that to make room for Bautista...More seriously, I'm glad. It's so clear he's not ready to return, and they're fighting for a playoff spot.

I still think it was irresponsible to bring him back so early, he was effectively wild in a couple of starts but still not really near his best.

I wouldn't go quite that far--and I think most teams vying for a playoff spot would have crossed their fingers and done the same (if you're guaranteed to be in or out of the playoffs, maybe a different story). I know, Taylor Ward--which could easily have happened to the Manoah of last year, or to anybody on the mound. His six starts have been a mixed bag: four game scores in the 52-66 range (pretty good: ERA, 3.22), two poor.

I don’t blame Manoah for Ward at all. I just think something like that happening to a young player who’s had the kind of year he has had can be a more damaging experience than to any other pitcher and that’s why I don’t think he should have come back so soon. The mechanics look off but the mental approach is messy too.

Agree with all of that, I guess our difference is semantics. I'd say the Jays made a poor decision: "irresponsible," for me, is more like the Yankees and Rizzo.

If it turns out the Jays have known about some physical issue and brought him back anyway, I'd definitely move to irresponsible. When I wrote to James about Manoah a couple of months ago, part of his answer was "Your assumption that there is no underlying health issue seems very questionable to me. I would suggest that there almost certainly IS an underlying health issue; we just don't know what it is yet."

Oh yeah I take that point. I’m sympathetic cos I hadn’t realised how young he is and it’s not great to watch, you know? Maybe better semantically to say that the organisation didn’t handle him well.

It’s really difficult to guess as an observer but I always think that the mental aspect is such a huge part of the game - pitcher has the odds in their favour but they still have to believe that they’ll get guys out every time they step out on the mound. If the stuff isn’t doing what it used to for whatever reason, then that’s where you adjust and it might have been better for him to stay down in Florida longer doing that away from public view.

I’ve watched a few Manoah starts, maybe seven?, this season; the one I keep remembering is his first one in Boston in May. He was doing pretty well beginning the 4th inning, had only given up one hit and one walk with no runs, then there was a throwing error with one out in the inning, he started throwing wild, ended up giving up five runs between the fourth and fifth inning. Only two of those runs were actually earned; the other three were all attributable to throwing/fielding errors. Just couldn’t dig himself out of it.

You have watched him a lot more so you can say if the above was characteristic of him last season but it’s all interlinked ofc; highly probable that if he’s injured or mechanics are off it strongly affects his mental game.

His mental game is shot right now (made worse, of course, by the Ward injury). It's a chicken-and-egg thing, and I don't know the answer: did his confidence or his command vacate him first? His very first start of the season, he blew a 4-0 lead, I think.

First start: Jays jumped out 3-0 in the top of the 1st, then 3-1, then 4-1, then gave up 2 and then 2 more--he couldn't get out of the fourth inning.

Seemed obvious to me in that opener that he was working against the clock in a big way. the clock+mechanics+mental+injury(?) variables are maybe just all lining up, because he looks nothing at all like his old self. of course he always tended to lose that 2Seamer up armside (racking up HBPs), and often famously lost his cool. he shouldn't be up here. we've got a serviceable Ryu now, so

racking up HBPs

Led the league last year, and I suppose, if harnessed properly, that was a small part of his success. But after the Ward injury--undergoing reconstructive surgery right now--I could see where that could mess him up permanently.

Small factor in his success, I should have said...you know what I mean: Bob Gibson, Nolan Ryan, effectively wild.

It's so exhausting to root for a team that constantly falls behind in the early innings.

I already have next year's thread title: Alek Manoah, Where Have You Gone You Gorgeous Squeezy Thing?

Big ceremony for Bautista today as they put his name up on the "Wall of Excellence" (from which Alomar's was taken down last year). Lots of people and video footage from 2015, of course--seems almost as ancient as the two WS teams. Justin Smoak? Ryan Goins? Who are these guys? Stroman spoke in the video tribute two or three times; I completely forgot about him being in the other dugout today till he popped out at one point. Edwin got the second-biggest reception--him or Gibbons--and he'll be next. (Probably Gibbons too.) I really wish they'd put Henke up--this continues to baffle me.

Meanwhile, Jays made it all the way to the 4th inning today before falling behind 4-1.

Time for a break.

I do have to complain about one thing. (Plus I'm at Tuesday's game, so it wouldn't be much of a break anyway.) MLB.com has front-page stories on ceremonies today for Fernando and for Felix Hernandez, but, unless I'm missing it, nothing on Bautista.

Gibbons is not getting put up on the Level of Excellence.

Watching the ceremony yesterday, I realized that there aren't any Cal Ripken Jr. types in the LOE, that is, HOF (or Hall of Very Good) talents who spent 10-15 or more years with the team as a franchise player. Even the 80's and 90's guys had 6-7 year runs at most and tended to move on, not unlike Bautista. Is it because the Jays have been stingy on the free agent market? I can't think of a single superstar Jays player who was signed to a significant extension in their prime. Perhaps Stieb is the only exception?

Delgado? Because of the immense goodwill to anybody connected to 2015, I could easily see Gibbons going up there; he's second to Gaston in games and wins. Would you put Henke up?

Martinez obviously, probably Howarth too.

Delgado was a regular for nine years, about the same as Bautista. Vernon Wells got the mega-extension in his prime, and we know how that turned out.

My Keltner-list type criteria for the LOE would include: can you write a concise team history without mentioning him? If so, then he's not on the LOE. Was he ever the best player on the team? Did he factor (positively) into a number of pennant races and playoff runs? And so on. I don't think Henke or Gibbons make the cut.

At some point today, I will marshal some numbers and make my case for Henke.

The best relievers in the game during Henke's '85-92 Jays window:

Pitcher       ERA       FIP       WHIP       K/BB       Saves       WAR
Henke         2.48      2.53      1.025      3.88        217        16.8
Reardon       3.51      3.65      1.169      2.88        271         9.4
Smith         2.89      2.65      1.236      2.90        275        15.9
Franco        2.47      3.15      1.259      1.93        222        14.2
Thigpen       3.09      3.99      1.308      1.62        200         8.7

(Thigpen's rookie year is '86.) To me, unless you're fixated on saves, Henke is the best in that group, a little ahead of both Franco and Smith. The complicating factor is that Eckersley isn't converted to a closer until 1987, and then from '88 to '92 he redefines the job. Eckersley for '87-92:

Eckersley     2.18      2.21      0.844      8.93        236        15.5

So: Henke is either the best reliever in the game if you require the full eight-year stretch, or the second-best if you loosen that. He was, I'd say, absolutely the final piece of the puzzle in getting the Jays to the finish line in '85; finding a closer was an ongoing nightmare in '83 and '84. He was still the closer in '92, when they won their first WS (even though he couldn't close out G6, he had a decent WS). He had a rough ALCS in '85, was dominant in his other three ALCS's (didn't give up a run in 10 IP).

Was he ever the best player on the team? Probably not, but he's boxed in a bit by his position there--he was pretty great in '89-90. Did he factor (positively) into a number of pennant races and playoff runs? Definitely--in seven of his eight years in Toronto, the Jays either won the division (four times) or finished 2.0 games out (three times) in all but one season.

To this day, he's still the best closer they ever had.

You make some good arguments, so I'll respond with the full Keltner List, adapted for Henke/LOE. This isn't a putdown of Henke, I remember his arrival in '85 and the way he was celebrated as a folk hero by becoming the shutdown closer the team never had. OTOH, he never shows up in video clips of all-time great Jays moments. You don't see clips of him shutting down the Braves to win the 1992 WS because he blew the save in G6 to send the game to extras. I'm not saying he wasn't very good at what he did, but let's hold him up to the standard:

Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball?

No. He picked up some downballot MVP votes, but never a CY vote.

Was he the best player on his team?

No, and in many of his years with the Jays, he wasn't even the best relief pitcher on his team, mostly because he didn't pitch many innings. Mark Eichhorn had an all-time great relief season in 1986, and Duane Ward had some outstanding seasons as Henke's setup man, throwing 100+ IP each year with K totals that would be elite even today. Ward also took over the closer's job in 1993 and arguably had a better season than Henke ever did.

Was he the best player in baseball (or in the league) at his position?

No, and once again, his prime overlapped with the peak of overrated closer mania, when CY awards and votes were being handed out like candy every year. And he never earned a single CY vote.

Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Yes, he was a consistently good to great closer during the best sustained run of success the Jays ever had.

Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes, and he retired having hardly lost a step. Consistency is a big plus in his favour.

Is he the very best player in Jays history who is not in the LOE?

There's Encarnacion, possibly Donaldson (nearly as many WAR in four years as Henke, plus an MVP), and perhaps 2-3 of the guys currently on the team when all is said and done.

Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the LOE?

The only pitchers in the LOE are Halladay and Stieb, who are obviously on another level.

Do the players numbers meet LOE standards?

Tough to say because it's not a big sample of players, but everybody in the LOE either a) won a major award with the team, or b) won multiple divisions/pennants with the team, or c) featured in all-time great moments. Henke was a key player on a lot of winning teams, but would they have won without him? Again, they had many great relievers over the years who could have done the job. And I still maintain that you can tell the history of the franchise without mentioning his name. It's impossible to talk about the Jays without mentioning Delgado, Bautista, Halladay, etc.

Is there evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

I think the statistics tell a fair story. Clem's comparison to other closers is revealing but by picking arbitrary start and end points, it leaves out Eck and other closers who did more to define the role.

Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the LOE but not in?

By these criteria, yes.

How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

The likes of Steve Bedrosian won the CY because he racked up 40 saves, which was a hallowed number in those days. If that's the CY/MVP standard, then Henke was there, but I think these days we tend to laugh at those awards.

How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go into the LOE?

Henke was selected to one All-Star Team while with the Jays. Yes, in those days they didn't stack the ASG rosters with middle relievers like they do today. But the superstar relievers did make the teams, Quisenberry was chosen in three straight years, Eck in five straight years, etc.

If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

No. Closers play a limited role, but that's kind of the point, isn't it?

What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

He was very good for over a decade (eight years with the Jays) but didn't redefine the position or anything.

Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the LOE, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

He was a class act and a solid hand, no doubt.

To clarify on the 40 saves deal: Henke never saved 40 with the Jays. But obviously in terms of value (WAR, every day dominance), at his best he was as good as the guys winning the CY's. But because he never hit that magic number, he didn't get CY support, which is of course stupid. So if the question is, was he good enough to win major awards, compared with the performances of other contemporary closers, then yes, he had some CY-type seasons.

But the voters were dumber back then.

Fair points, and as the Jays post-game show guys said yesterday, the team has never gone back into the past to reevaluate someone--you either go up when your time comes or you don't. Just a couple of quibbles though. The end-points I picked weren't really arbitrary; that's when Henke was a Jay. Just about any comparison you do is going to be arbitrary in that sense--calendars rarely line up. And I tried to be up-front about Eckersley, rather than sneakily omitting him. (As far as the stats I chose, those six seem pretty basic to a closer--would you have gone with something different?) I'd also say--and you kind of acknowledge this--that two questions on the Keltner Test, the two that are connected to the idea of being the best player on your team, are hard to apply to closers. I'm not even sure Mariano was ever the best player on the Yankees--how could he be?

I think Henke never getting a Cy Young vote (something I pointed out in a "Hey Bill" once, I think about the greatest retirement-seasons ever; Henke's is among them) is so silly when guys like Bedrosian and Mark Davis were actually winning.

Yes, those are the years he was a Jay, so it's a fair comparison, but comparing Henke's best five consecutive seasons with Eckersley's or Lee Smith's would be equally fair. They're contemporaries even if the years don't exactly line up.

Agreed about the best player on your team aspect, although voters at time clearly thought differently considering the MVP and CY votes given to closers. For Rivera, one could ask whether he was ever the best player in a postseason for the Yankees, and the answer is likely yes considering his workload and the extra rounds of playoffs. Even during the regular season, he had a lot of 3-4 WAR seasons which probably meant he was more valuable than all but a few position players or pitchers. But that's why he's the GOAT of course.

Here's the "Hey Bill," from 2013:

Bill: Leaving aside the question of whether or not closers *should* get Cy Young votes, the fact is that they do, and they even used to win them semi-regularly during Tom Henke's peak years. So I'd like to put forth his name as another pitcher who was drastically shortchanged by Cy Young voters. Total votes: zero, even though he was arguably the second-best closer in the game after Eckersley from '85-95. He did draw MVP and ROY votes during three of those seasons.
Asked by: Phil Dellio

Answered: 5/26/2013
Left the game when he could still pitch. He was a dominant closer, for sure...built like Papelbon.

And another:

Bill -- I'm sure you'll be deluged with suggestions for your "Going Out on Top" piece, so let me be the first: Tom Henke, one of my favourite players ever. He had 36 saves, a 1.82 ERA, and the usual array of excellence across his peripheral stats. I'm guessing it's easier for a stopper to go out on top than a starter or position player.
Asked by: Phil Dellio

Answered: 12/17/2011
Thanks.

I might be a little biased here.

Thermo and Francis: would either of you put Henke up there?

One more thing I noticed, and this is worth something, I think: Jaffe has Henke as the 17th greatest relief pitcher ever, putting him ahead of both Fingers (19th) and Sutter (25th). Among the direct contemporaries discussed, he's behind only Eckersley (2nd) and Smith (15th); Gossage (4th) is a little earlier and Tom Gordon (9th) a little later. (Gordon is the rare guy on there who's primarily a middle reliever.)

Crickets ... but it's also kind of expected that only clem and I would get worked up about Henke.

I'll be down there for the Phillies today. I don't think I've seen this many games (six for sure, possibly a seventh or eighth) since 2017--I recall going down a lot in a year where they were expected to win and didn't. So I need them to stay in this thing: the two September games I'll be at, including the 30th against the Rays, will be quite anti-climactic if they drop out.

And let me vent here a bit about their new virtual-tickets-only policy. I don't (and never will) have a cell phone. I'm trying to arrange for a game with a friend of my dad's who's in his 80s. All the other games I've seen and will be seeing this year, I simply purchase the tickets and transfer them over to whoever I'm going with--we then use their cell phone to get in. With my dad's friend, I'll have to first try to set up a Ticketmaster account for him, which will involve getting him on the phone while they send him a verification code that he can relay to me. 80-somethings aren't too big on these kinds of scenarios, and neither am I.

This actually turned up on my FB wall today in connection with Henke's retirement:

In 1995, Tom Henke finished the season with 36 saves and a 1.82 ERA. Instead of cashing in or hanging around for a few more years, he retired and went back home to his farm in Missouri. "My kids were starting high school. I wanted to be around. I wanted to see those basketball games. I wanted to see those baseball games. I wanted to see all that."

Its gotta be that tiny park in Buffalo they played at "home" during COVID.
― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Tuesday, August 8, 2023

Been meaning to look at this more closely; it stayed in my mind, and they were talking about the same thing on the radio the other day. (I don't get the call-in shows since moving four years ago, but I listen on the way in and back when going to a game. Lots and lots of Vlad talk, and the radio guys aren't particularly charitable anymore.)

When you look at Vlad's career box, 2021, his near-MVP season, really jumps out--it's the one season everyone continues to hang their hopes on.

But if you eliminate all those games played at Sahlen Field in Buffalo (2020 and 2021) and TD Ballpark in Dunedin (2021), there really is much more uniformity. His adjusted year-by-year:

Year        BA        OBP        SLG        OPS+
2019       .272      .339       .433        106
2020       .213      .288       .377         97
2021       .292      .375       .518        106
2022       .274      .339       .480        149
2023       .265      .342       .436        116

That looks like a very red flag to me. He still has a good season in 2021, but in no way MVP-caliber; his 2020 (small sample size, to be fair, once you eliminate home games) is terrible. He doesn't turn 25 until March, so I realize it's still early. But it's a lot less early than when he was heralded as the second coming.

I messed up the OPS+...Should be 149 in 2021, 133 in 2022. (I calculated his OPS+ for 2020 and 2021 by using the same ratio of Vlad's actual OPS to his OPS+ for all games, and recalculating that according to his adjusted OPS, if that makes sense. I'm sure it's not exact but should be close.)

Sorry to keep harping on this (though it is more interesting than posting about the whys and wherefores of a truly anemic offense):

https://bluejaysnation.com/news/three-blue-jays-who-could-be-next-in-line-for-the-level-of-excellence

Overall, Henke is one key figure missing from the Level of Excellence and should be next in line given what he accomplished for the organization during his eight years with the team. If elected, he would be the first reliever to receive the prestigious honour.

Bichette has been reactivated, DeJong released. 44 AB, 3 hits, O XBH, 0 BB, 1 RBI, 1 run, .068/.068/.068. He won't be forgotten.

Haven't read this yet--Jeff Blair is one of the two main hosts on the Jays call-in show (the one I can stand).

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/time-running-out-for-blue-jays-guerrero-jr-to-re-write-his-seasons-narrative/

Pathetic display in the bottom of the ninth last night...I've always assumed this team would back into a WC, but the reality that they won't even manage that is slowly sinking in. There are dozens of reasons, of course, but in the end, it will come down to Manoan and Vlad. I'm down for today's game with zero enthusiasm after yesterday.

Manoah...

Listening to the radio on the way in, they were rattling off some stats pertaining to late-inning, high-leverage situations. Sobering. One of them was under .200 for the bases loaded for some window of time, another was 4-35 with...I forget: the go-ahead run in scoring position in the late innings, something like that. They're probably all relatively small samples, but they're consistent across the board. That's been the big story with this team for most of the year, how anemic their offense is with runners on base.

They won today (think I'm 4-0 this year), and that was good, but I really think they're out of time, even with their light schedule for the remaining 28 games. Bassitt and Kirk were great, Vlad was again ordinary.

I found it grimly funny listening to Blair and Barker talk about what the Blue Jays had to do during this upcoming nine-game stretch vs. Colorado/K.C./Oakland. 9-0? 7-2? Neither of them said it, but they both knew--and anybody who's followed the Jays this year knows it--they could very easily go 4-5.

So of course they're already down 2-0 against the Rockies.

Follow-up to Sid Bream...I was thinking that one day I'd use Ed Armbrister, famous for this play in the '75 Series. If there was ever a sure-fire 0.00001% rarity guy, it'd be Armbrister.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRw2_KvHcPk

Turns out I can't--five seasons, all with the Reds.

Oops--meant for the Immaculate Grid thread.

Only saw the very end, but:

- blew a 5-0 lead
- ninth-inning comeback ends with the bases loaded, two out, down a run
- Vlad: walk, 0-4, two GIDPs, a strikeout, and a non-run-scoring fly ball in the middle of the near-comeback

Basically why I went to a movie tonight. Watching this team is just no fun.

Saw highlights and caught the end and this loss was definitely tough.

It was a brutal spot for Horwitz with the game on the line, he was totally overmatched in that AB.

1-1 thus far on the tour of the worst teams in MLB. There's still plenty of time to salvage this, but I'm losing faith.

Even more maddening is that they're getting outside help: Houston's lost two in a row, Texas three.

It figures, the next day, Vlad and Horwitz are a combined 5-6, each with a HR.

God, I shouldn't say this, three outs still to go, but looks like they might limp out of town with two wins.

https://bluejaysnation.com/news/triple-a-buffalo-bisons-place-alek-manoah-on-temporarily-inactive-list

No idea what that means. Earlier today I was in the library and saw this, dating back to April:

https://i.postimg.cc/1tXw132M/alek.jpg

Going by that, I'm going to guess there are at least parts of the accompanying article that don't date particularly well:

https://torontolife.com/city/the-electrifying-life-of-blue-jays-ace-alek-manoah/

Remember when he was optioned to Buffalo? About a week or so ago it emerged that he was still in Toronto. Reading between the lines a bit, I think he’s struggling with his mental health.

I hadn't considered that...sincerely hope not. If true, I'm sure Taylor Ward is weighing heavily on him. For the many jokes I've made about him the past couple of months, and my tendency to pin this season's frustrations on him and Vlad, I really do hope he emerges from this humbled and a better pitcher. I forget how young these guys are.

I really think they made a mistake rushing him back. I said it either itt or the regular season thread, but he is very young. Honestly think they mishandled him.

I didn’t post about it on here, but there was a story last season & also this season with Jarren Duran:

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/08/alex-cora-red-sox-talked-with-jarren-duran-about-posts-on-mental-struggles.html

Everyone knows it’s a game of failure but how players deal with it especially in this day and age when anyone can contact them directly to tell them exactly what they think is another question.

I remember reading in Joan Ryan’s team chemistry book about Lincecum’s slump in August 2010, and it was clear that the guy who’d won the Golden Spikes, was called up less than a year after being drafted and won two Cys back to back in his first full seasons had never experienced this kind of failure before.

With Duran, he made some high profile errors (in a horrific game against the Blue Jays), got sent down last year, talked about being suicidal. This season he started off strong, slumped a bit, came back strong, slumped a bit, but talked about how helpful he found Justin Turner to be in dealing with failure. He said Turner’s approach was the classic “turn the page” approach where you have to come to each day anew, because it’s a long season and you can’t pull yourself down.

And yet this happened during another slump.

I think it must be hard for players to deal with their bodies not responding as they have done all their lives. You suddenly can’t get guys out or reliably hit, and there’s nowhere to hide. But I think for Manoah and Duran both, to have dealt with such high profile failure, seeming to come back and succeed again (this is success in a more limited sense for Manoah because he didn’t come back to what he had been before) only to get pulled down again? Must have been hard.

I don’t really know very much about how clubs handle their young players like this, but we can only hope that they treat them as the people they are and not assets to be stripped and dumped when they don’t perform anymore. Wow I wrote a lot, sorry!

Everyone knows it’s a game of failure but how players deal with it especially in this day and age when anyone can contact them directly to tell them exactly what they think is another question.

Which is undoubtedly the biggest difference between today and a couple of famous and long-gone poor starts: Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle. Mays had Durocher (helping him), Mantle had his father (making it worse), but neither had to deal with social media.

(Of course Manoah--and I'm trying to stay consistent here--compounds the problem by mucking around on Twitter.)

Yeah. I actually learned the story about Willie Mays crying in front of his locker as a rookie after going 0-23 while reading a piece about 2023 rookies and their struggles adjusting to the big leagues. Can’t imagine how it might have gone if he’d been asked, constantly, why aren’t you hitting? Why aren’t you getting the job done? Why? Why? Why?

I think I linked this piece before as a favourite tribute to a favourite player but this Lowell Cohn piece about, yes, Lincecum and the end of his Giants career stuck with me for many reasons, but mainly just this:

But after he pitched, he talked. Was required to talk. Then everything was different. He stood at his locker as long as reporters wanted — a painfully long time after the decline started. The questions, asked so many different ways, amounted to one thing: “What’s wrong with you?”

Imagine people asking you, day after day, what’s wrong with you. You might pop your cork. Or run out of the room. Not Lincecum. He stood there. Took it. Said he was sorry for letting down the team. Said he wasn’t throwing like he wanted.

And all the time he looked so sad. Or was it guilty? This torture with the writers was his penance. Maybe it was a form of psychotherapy. And all the writers were kind to him, polite. How could it be otherwise? He gave the best of himself and he deserved the best of us.

Manoah was brought up so quickly, just 3 games in AAA and was dropped right in the Bronx. He performed so well, it almost didn't make sense to me. I was waiting for the pendulum to swing the other way, and it never did all through last season. He almost certainly was rushed too quickly back up this year. Jays had very few SP options. Now they don't appear to have such a need in that department for a playoff run, but they may have set Alek back unnecessarily by not taking the long view of the season. It's tricky, he's paid to help the team, but he might also be going through something really heavy, so it ends up feeling potentially callous but also counterproductive anyway. Even just for baseball reasons, gotta give him time. Make sure there's actual starting depth next season and go way slower.

Locked in a life-and-death struggle with the A's. Reggie, Catfish, Vida, Bando, Campy--great, great team.

I hate my previous post--so petulant. They're a hard team to love, but I should just be happy they're in it.

They're overtaken the Rangers for the final WC spot.

They've

Notice that the four teams fighting for three spots--Jays, Mariners, Astros, and Rangers (I won't count Tampa Bay)--have one thing in common: they're all under .500 against winning teams (ditto the Twins).

They're now 6-2 over the last three series against the worst teams in baseball, with one more game vs KC (8-3 including the Nationals series that preceded). Texas is collapsing, Seattle has a brutal schedule down the stretch, I'm optimistic again.

Dead heat with the Mariners now, two up on Texas.

No doubt my forever-complaining-fan mindset, but that feels like the first time in ages where the Jays were supposed to sweep a series and they actually did.

I was listening to yesterday's game from an adjacent room (it's just maddening to watch the Jays these days...my problem, not theirs), so I didn't actually see this till highlights later on. You'll never see anything like it.

my goodness three consecutive pitches 😮 pic.twitter.com/8qosgINimm

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) September 10, 2023

even crazier, Ragans was absolutely dominatinant to that point (one hit), gives up 2 straight walks, both scoring on those wild pitches to tie it up, ending a 26-inning scoreless streak! what a way to do it.

dominatinant means *extra* dominant :P

Alek Manoah never reported to Triple-A when he was optioned on August 11th because he was upset about the decision, per @SNJeffBlair

Manoah reportedly has not even been throwing bullpens or side sessions. It’s unlikely that he’ll pitch in a game again this year pic.twitter.com/P6y3Bw5xwD

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 12, 2023

Something's going on that no one's talking about.

Terrible start to this big series last night. Bassitt has been an enigma the whole year.

Yeah you will know the answer to this, but that info has got to be leaked, right? I don’t think anyone was really clamouring for it? And if it was leaked it’s presumably reflecting the official view of the player’s behaviour?

Some explanation, maybe--not good.

Alek Manoah never reported to Triple-A when he was optioned on August 11th because he was upset about the decision, per @SNJeffBlair

Manoah reportedly has not even been throwing bullpens or side sessions. It’s unlikely that he’ll pitch in a game again this year pic.twitter.com/P6y3Bw5xwD

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 12, 2023

Weirdly enough, ties in with a David Wells rant making news.

https://nypost.com/2023/09/10/david-wells-on-how-to-fix-yankees-send-players-to-minors/

The team on the field...I'm back in whining, petulant mode. I'd down Friday for the Red Sox, and again on the 30th for Tampa. If they don't win these next two, that will very much dim some of the excitement for Friday, and the 30th will feel like a complete waste if the game's meaningless.

Sox are really bad atm so Blue Jays will probably win…You might see Brayan Bello pitching though & I’ll be really jealous if you do. (There is no starter currently named for Friday, think they are waiting to see if Sale will go Saturday.)

I'd like to see him, so hopefully the schedule will fall that way. I definitely don't want to see Chris Bassitt for the fourth time this year.

It's just the way he looks that makes this funny:

https://www.mlb.com/news/davis-scheider-hot-start-blue-jays-2023

Yeah that stache is hilarious for a 24 year old. He’s had some start.

I don’t get to watch the Jays often atm but what are your thoughts on Vladdy’s performance? Also, sorry to hear Belt is out again.

Disappointment--extreme. Yes, he's still young by normal standards (e.g., younger than all these guys who were just brought up from Syracuse), but to become what he was advertised as--a generational hitter--that's a different timetable; that window is fast closing. The thing that Steve Shasta posted about a month or two ago, how much his COVID time in the two minor-league parks skewed his numbers--something so obvious that I'd never clued into for some reason--has really made me rethink Vlad. I'm sure he'll still put together a pretty good career, but generational, I don't think so.

That piece on Schneider breaks down his success in really interesting ways. And no, I don't think he's generational either--maybe for another couple of weeks. (His mustache is, though.)Nobody that looks like that will continue to hit like Stan Musial; it defies the laws of baseball.

Am I more optimistic on him? I mean his dad played well into his thirties. The thing that seemed slightly concerning to me (limited sample size) is that he seems to be striking out a bit more and previously that was something he wouldn’t usually do, like he’d make some contact. He’s still extremely good and I’d expect him to get a big contract. But from watching Jays games this year Bo has been the team’s standout hitter for me.

xp yeah he might have had an explosive EDLC-like start and then either cools off or the league adjusts back to him. I read that the manager hasn’t been playing him every day (!) so that limited exposure might have been in his favour.

I finally figured out who he looks like: G. Gordon Liddy (possibly doing some illegal covert stuff for the CIA, hence the glasses).

Also: don't ask me why I'm resorting to an cliché like "generational." Kill that, along with "elite," and let's stick with some old standby like future Hall of Famer.

Just got home, down 4-0 already.

Davis is starting everyday now, I think he's sat only once this month, but was inexplicably being sat regularly at the end of August.

A lot of talk about Vlad (on broadcast, etc), is that Vlad's timing is off. Buck Martinez was breaking down how his hands/legs are not operating in sync last night. I can't remember Vlad being on a hot streak since '21, honestly. Just seems to be treading along, towing his bad mechanics behind him. Biggio and Clement have now passed him in fWAR. It's not his fault he was touted so highly as a "Generational Talent", but damn, he's not looking good, even compared to last year.

Jays just went down 0-4. The pitching just can't possibly keep this pace. So we'll see how these Buffalo-bolstered bats do tonight, but there's so little power, it's hard to truly believe in this team's chances: tonight, and definitely if they should make the playoffs.

xp

It's not his fault he was touted so highly

Definitely--no control over that. If Biggio had Vlad's numbers for his career, I'm sure we'd be very happy.

yeah i wasn't directing that at you btw, it's a *very* common thing to read online re: his disappointing trend downward from '21. Jays' media has obviously fed into the "our generation's Vlad" narrative in a huge way since he was signed. to expect that of someone is to be disappointed

I didn't think you were...Have you looked at those stats out of the two parks in Buffalo and Dunedin? Every Jays fan should. Honestly, I think you have to treat those numbers like you'd treat numbers out of Colorado in the late '90s.

how would i go about looking that up? didn't offensive numbers spike in 2021, also? my memory might be betraying me

*league-wide offensive numbers

I'll cut-and-paste from my post from a couple of weeks ago. It's all on Baseball Reference.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When you look at Vlad's career box, 2021, his near-MVP season, really jumps out--it's the one season everyone continues to hang their hopes on.

But if you eliminate all those games played at Sahlen Field in Buffalo (2020 and 2021) and TD Ballpark in Dunedin (2021), there really is much more uniformity. His adjusted stats year-by-year:

Year        BA        OBP        SLG        OPS+
2019       .272      .339       .433        106
2020       .213      .288       .377         97
2021       .292      .375       .518        149
2022       .274      .339       .480        133
2023       .265      .342       .436        116

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So he still has a good year in 2021, but not anywhere near MVP-level.

thanks for that. i went looking for an article that isolated those stats for me:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/vladimir-guerrero-jr-s-unusual-replacement-level-season.html

Guerrero still had a .935 OPS in 152 PA at Rogers Centre in 2021, though even that impressive total paled in comparison to his numbers at the Blue Jays’ other two home ballparks that season — a 1.418 OPS in 96 PA at the Jays’ spring complex in Dunedin, or his 1.180 OPS in 98 PA at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.

and another piece of the puzzle that I've followed this year:

a glimpse at Guerrero’s Statcast page would make one think that he is again an MVP candidate. Guerrero ranks in at least the 89th percentile in such key categories as strikeout rate, hard contact, barrels, expected batting average, expected on-base percentage, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, and xwOBA. In fact, that latter statistic hints that Guerrero’s relative struggles this season have been due to horrid luck. No qualified player in baseball has a larger gap between their xwOBA and wOBA than Guerrero, whose elite .379 xwOBA has resulted in a much more modest .332 wOBA.

Blair and Barker have been talking about his hard-hit and barrel rate all year, wavering between "this promises better things ahead" and "at a certain point, who cares?" I don't know what to think about all that.

What a pathetic showing these last three games.

Such a depressing series. Outscored 26-7 at home. The Rangers were looking cooked a week ago, now they've won five in a row. They're now at 79 percent playoff odds, and the Jays are at 46 percent. I think those numbers were flipped before the series.

More Vlad Panic:

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-of-the-toronto-blue-jays-has-significantly-worse-stats-against-the-good-teams-in-2023#:~:text=He's%20hitting%20.263%20this%20season,base%20percentage%20and%20111%20RBI.

No idea if that means anything--you'd have to check that over a few years. Guessing it's a blip.

But the booing last night--wasn't watching, read about it--was real. He's had a lot of goodwill on his side thus far. If the Jays miss the playoffs, which looks like a good bet right now, and he starts off slow next year, I expect fans will turn on him with a vengeance, whether deserved or not.

Friday night pitchers: Bello - Berrios. Have a good evening! Bello has had some blowouts but he’s hugely promising and is evolving all the time, he’s got a great changeup.

I'm that close--holds thumb and index finger 1 cm apart--to rooting for Bello.

This series has to rank with the franchise's all-time debacles, and we've had a few.

I think they have exactly one thing going for them at this point, something completely intangible and possibly even non-existent: my contention that as soon as you think you have something figured out when it comes to sports, that's when the exact opposite happens.

That's a very faint hope to cling to.

Pleased to see young Jays fans know ball
https://i.postimg.cc/y8rJLpzs/IMG-9526.png

Looked like Bello had a good game, minus that one hit ofc - Red Sox Stats was annoyed about the pitch as it’s been a problem for him for a while though (no slight on Vladdy, but why call for that pitch then).

From July:

Someone needs to explain to me why Bello throws his 4-seam fastball as much as he does and in the locations he does. I don’t get what they are doing.

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) July 19, 2023

Anytime Bello throws a 4-seamer below the belt it should be a 25 grand fine and 50 grand for whichever catcher calls for it.

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) September 16, 2023

It was a fast-moving, classic kind of old-fashioned game: starting pitching, one big HR, a little over two hours. Bello was good--had 9 strikeouts at one point. The highlight for me was Kirk legging out a double; he gave the most forlorn fist pump I've ever seen when he was called safe. I have a 2-hour+ drive home, so the quickness was a godsend; unfortunately wasted when I encountered overnight road work on the way home. (Half an hour to cover a kilometre.)

I was with my friend Howard, who I met almost 40 years ago at Nerve (Toronto music monthly). What do two old '80s rock critics talk about at a baseball game? Actual quote: "I wonder what Professor Griff is doing tonight?"

https://i.postimg.cc/bYG28yNn/game.jpg

10ks which is I think his most in a big league start! That Kirk run was very funny

We of course arrived too late to get our Berríos bobblehead on Roberto Clemente Day--you have to arrive hours ahead of time now to get free stuff. There was a guy sitting near us who had three, and I offered to buy one from him, but no interest. They're on eBay for $100.

Berrios was great--left after 7 innings/90 pitches with a 3-0 lead. I would have given him one runner in the 8th the way the bullpen's been lately, but worked out fine.

Was hoping you’d get to see Casas but unfortunately he’s injured and out for the season. Did you have any opinions on Abreu or Rafaela?

I was disappointed he wasn't in the lineup--had no idea about the injury.

I don't...honestly, I'm not the most observant person at a game. A lot of talk whoever I'm with. I missed a good play Bichette supposedly made because I was in search of coffee. Who is the Red Sox coach Hudson? He and Vladdy were chatting it up during a stoppage in play. They're actually 5-0 for the games I've seen this year. It's now a question of whether or not the Rays game I'm at on the 30th will mean anything or not.

Kyle Hudson - he’s new this season I think. He is notable for being the only infield coach whose name isn’t widely known, probably because he’s good at his job. I know that Vladdy’s grandmother makes food for visiting Dominican players so I bet Bello was very appreciative - Devers has said he looks forward to visiting Toronto.

The injury was just announced now, he was scratched yesterday.

The doomsayer in me fully expects them to lose this game--two missed chances to walk it off.

I read this comment about a second before Tracer Hand texted me to say “This is a Sox loss,” a comment which precedes a loss 100% of the time? And let’s just say his pessimism is more accurate than yours. Honestly a dire game to watch, neither team really doing much for it (a few amazing plays besides) and now both pens are gassed ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Sale looked great though!

Happiest guy in the world: Vlad. After a HOF baserunning blunder--didn't tag up on the first out in extra innings; would easily have got to third with one out--Merrifield won it on an infield single with two outs. Now they need some help.

My pessimism is partly game-playing with myself, meant to counteract the fact that I'm usually an optimist on the inside.

Thank you, Cleveland.

Thank you, Kansas City.

(I sound like Alanis Morissette.)

Tied for the third WC, and even though they lose the tiebreakers against both Seattle and Texas, that's something.

It was a miraculously ugly win though, hardly one of those days that makes you think they're ready to go on a run.

If it happens, it won't be a run, no. It'll be an Alejandro Kirk double. Wish I could find a screenshot of him standing on second base Friday night, half-heartedly (or maybe just in shock) holding up his hand in celebration.

I got u
https://i.postimg.cc/KcJ6ZZLT/IMG-9593.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/ncWND03c/IMG-9596.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/m2k0k0N5/IMG-9595.jpg
No closeups of him with the raised fist on either broadcast though

That's it--thank you! The expression on his face in the last shot sums up this season perfectly.

That was exhilarating...One pitch away from winning, Devers hits a game-tying HR, Chapman wins it with a walk-off double (that was almost caught) in the bottom of the inning. Biggio's been in the middle of everything the past few games.

Plus: Rangers lost, and Seattle's down 4-0 in L.A. (Houston won.) Quite improbable turnaround since Thursday's end-of-the-world feeling.

Good: it's again up to them.

Good: Seattle and Texas have seven games with each other.

Maybe good: six games against the Yankees. (Who knows what their mindset is?)

Bad: six games with the Rays.

Bad, good, no idea anymore: it's this team.

I’ve never identified with a player so much in my life

#BlueJays starter Yusei Kikuchi thinks he’ll be fine for his next start after he left the game with cramps. The biggest revelation was that he said it may have been caused by only getting 11 (!) hours of sleep last night instead of his usual 13 or 14 hours (!!)

— Kaitlyn McGrath (@kaitlyncmcgrath) September 20, 2023

a+ sleeper

Satchel Paige would approve.

I'll ensure that the Yankees win tomorrow by saying this, but this is the most anemic team of theirs I can remember since the early '90s. Stanton especially looks lost.

Over/Under on the Yankees scoring 10 or more runs in their final 10 games? I’ll taking the under

Anyone who's watched baseball for a while, you internalize this certainty that the Yankees will come back in the late innings to beat your team. Didn't feel like that yesterday or tonight.

We completely outclassed them, it's been awesome! The problem with my own particular feelings of schadenfreude is that I'd been waiting since they signed Stanton for him to bury that team. Now it just seems sad to me.

anyway, we got Berrios v. Cole tonight. Yanks will give us a game. 6-4 rest of the way wins a berth, but of course we're headed to the den of horrors and defeat known as the Trop next

I was doing the math in my head today, and 6-4 leaves the door open a bit (if I've calculated correctly). Seattle-Texas go 4-3, and whichever one wins 4, they win their three others for a 7-3 finish. Which picks up a game on the Jays, and they've already won head-to-head.

6-4 should do it, but not guaranteed.

I just heard on the podcast At The Letters (i think) that those were the numbers. i don't know, i can't calculate it lol.

I actually bailed on watching the game last night - kinda weird because i've been watching/listening constantly unless i'm out. I'm tired of the Jays being so hopeless against the very good/great starting pitchers. Tonight the Trop. all the games are big, so at least they're compelling (minus last night lol)

I play tennis Thursdays so missed the whole game. I was probably telling myself they're going to lose to Cole anyway, while the optimist secretly expected them to win.

This series could be brutal. If you were guaranteed one out of three in Tampa, would you take that? I might.

Some interesting Manoah talk on the radio this morning. Blair thinks he'll do a sit-down with somebody in the spring and we'll finally get the real story. Obviously, not a pressing concern at the moment.

i did hear he got a shot in the arm (literal), so maybe it was physical issues? i would love to know what's going on.

again Clem, I can't do the math, but 1 out of 3 i think i would take it! but they would probably have to win the series at home.

I finally clued into something--they're trying to stay ahead of Texas or Seattle, not Texas and Seattle. There are a bunch of scenarios there, but with the seven games between the Mariners and Rangers, 4-5 for Toronto might just be enough; 5-4 would be tough to beat.

Wish I had a clip of Blair talking on the radio this morning. Asked about Toronto's chances tonight, he said the Jays would have to depend on Glasnow gift-wrapping them two or three runs with walks and/or wild pitches. Jays scored six runs on eight hits tonight; the key inning was the sixth, when they scored four on three singles, three walks, a HBP, a SB, and a wild pitch.

God, Texas almost blew an 8-4 lead in the 9th against Seattle...Because Seattle has three games left against Houston (Texas's other three games are against the Angels), intuition tells me it's better for the Rangers to win the majority of these seven games with the Mariners.

yes! all about the guaranteed losses between those 3. better for texas to go ahead.

i attribute the win to the TORONTO script all-grey kits. I feel more like an old man every day, but I really think the away team should have their city on the jersey, and Jays hardly ever do. the greys look so great, why mess around and put them powders on all the time?

Hopefully that'll all be forgotten soon; if not, it'll be remembered alongside the Texas series as the disaster that killed the season. Mystifying: four times--in the bullpen and on the mound--the camera catches Romano looking at his finger like there's an issue, but both he and Schneider are content to go ahead like there's nothing wrong.

The Jays continue to get way more help than they deserve. Mariners and Astros both just lost, so right now it's:

TEX - 86-68
TOR - 86-69
HOU - 85-70
SEA - 84-70

All of Seattle's games are against Houston and Texas, so if they went on a 7-1 run or something, that knocks back the other two, and Toronto needs maybe three wins to hold one of them off; it Seattle doesn't, it'll probably be them who misses out.

(Include the Rays among the teams trying hard to hand this to Toronto: three errors and a blown 4-0 lead and the Jays still couldn't win.)

They had their chances with the runners LOB in the first few innings. In the ninth they barely missed turning the DP and the winning hit was fair by a foot. The Rays have plenty to play for, I hoped for a competitive series and we're getting it.

Despite the loss to the Rays, think their playoff odds increased because of Houston and Seattle both losing.

I think ...

Not bringing in Mayza for Lowe was one of most obvious John Schneider 9th inning gaffs

Definitely. And I'd add pitching Romano past a batter--or even at all--when he was clearly dealing with some finger issue. Fangraphs has them at 91% right now, so yesterday helped. But it'd be nice to see them win their way in instead of backing in.

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/dreadful-in-game-decisions-by-john-schneider-once-again-cost-blue-jays-a-win

Glad they got Kikuchi out of there. 9 hits in 4 innings, Jesus.

They really need another run or two. The odds of them holding on to a one-run lead, not good. (The odds of them holding on to a three-run lead weren't much better.)

Wow--don't think anybody saw that coming, least of all doomsayers like me.

Texas again beating Seattle, and--amazing--KC up on Houston in the 8th.

Vladdy heating up for the Post-season? I think so! how about those 5 2-out runs capped with a Springer 3-run in-the-park Dinger?

It's been so long where he felt like a threat; that would charge up the whole offense considerably.

I'll be at Saturday's game with a friend and his two young sons. He said he hopes the Jays clinch when we're down there. As much as I'd like that too--never been to a clinching game--with this team, I want them to lock things up a.s.a.p. Anyone who remembers 1987 isn't going to be particular about how, just if (and the 2023 Jays aren't nearly as good as the '87 team).

Do the other three Jays fans on here have any confidence in Romano right now? Even when he's saving games, it's never easy.

Earlier in the game--I was bowling but following--I couldn't believe the two strikes Vlad stood and looked at with the bases loaded.

Romano needs to be in a save situation to activate Maniac Mode. but seriously, I enjoy the ride with him and he pulls it off much more often than not

I need the Jays to get to Cole tonight. Getting owned by King was no fun

Did not quite get to Cole...My guess: they figure out a way to win tomorrow, win one out three from the Rays, and back in. I'd sit down and figure out different scenarios if these last two games--zero runs at home in 17 innings as I type (great pitchers, I know)--weren't so dispiriting.

Ha--watching the TV crew's post-mortem and heard the '87 Jays mentioned for the first time...

Posnanski evidently knows a little bit about our history:

The Blue Jays are still in good shape for a wild-card spot; they’re a half-game up on Houston for the second wild card and two games up on Seattle for the third. But they’re the Blue Jays, and history has been pretty cruel, and they might want to win some games and not put their playoff lives in the hands of fate.

Hopefully having a team meeting this afternoon about whether they might want to win some games.

apparently they still have more than half a chance to get in if they lose all their remaining games! Will they put us through that? 😫

That's what they said on the radio yesterday: 0-6 = 55% chance. That's wild, considering how bunched together they all are.

"Will they put us through that?" They just might. One of the lessons of this season for me is "Be careful what you wish for, you just might get it." In the spring, I was one of those people clamoring for them to switch the emphasis to pitching and defense, assuming that there'd still be enough hitting for a 2015-type Royals offense. Never again. A team that hits home runs is at least always entertaining. Even when they're four or five runs down, you're still fully engaged.

playoff odds up to 75% even if TB sweeps (who i guess we'd probably face Round 1). It's very important that they don't burn Gaus in game 162, so cinch it up tonight or tomorrow, pls.

Even though I'm there tomorrow, tonight please!

Good for Bassitt on the 200 IP--he was great last night--but it is weird for an old guy like me to see a pitcher ceremoniously removed mid-inning so he can get a standing ovation for his 200th IP. He'll probably be one of only four pitchers to get there this year.

Also weird: the Jays became only the fourth team in history--the fourth--to have four pitchers with 175+ strikeouts. I would have thought that's the kind of thing that would have been done many times.

Three is probably common enough, four less so. I wondered if the early 2010s Giants did, but this was the nearest I could see:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SFG/2012.shtml

They came within 17ks (Vogelsong) of doing so in 2012.

Really surprised that afaict the Braves rotation led by Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz never managed it.

They didn't? That is a surprise. Smoltz was a gimme, I think. Maddux struck out more batters than people remember; hit 200 once (just barely), and there were consecutive seasons of 198/199/197. Glavine wasn't a strikeout guy, but I would have guessed 175 regularly...nope. Then you had guys like Avery and Millwood filling out the rotation.

It's looking good, francisF.

Getting way ahead of myself here, but...Schneider shuffled the order last night in a way that drew attention: moved Belt to #2, Bichette to clean-up, and Chapman all the way down to eighth. They hit three HR last night, and another three tonight (including Belt and Chapman). It'd be great if this is the kind of small thing that fires up the offense for long enough to make a playoff run. Lineup order has been pretty conclusively proven to not matter a great deal. So even if it's just psychological, that'd be fine.

^^Jesus, shut up.

8-0 turns into...8-2, bases loaded, nobody out.

Got out of the inning with an 8-4 lead...take it easy, clemenza, it's the Jays.

Ducked out for a coffee and quick walk--was extremely nervous when I got home and turned on the TV. Disaster has not yet struck.

Great game. Painful loss though. Rogers Centre went SILENT after Walls' hit.

For TB, this was mission accomplished in a huge way, especially if the Jays need to burn Gausman tomorrow.

Very painful--I was down there. I thought they'd won it off Biggio's bat in the 9th. (Our seats weren't ideal in judging such things.) I don't question the flip-flop of Romano/Hicks at all.

Dreading having it go down to tomorrow, don't want to have to use Gausman on top of that. I'm eating dinner right now, two-hour drive home right after, so will have to follow the Mariners/Rangers on the radio as best I can.

My faith in the Rangers is just slightly less shaky than my faith in the Jays--even though they turned themselves into the '27 Yankees for those four games last week.

Thank god for that. And they don't have to burn Gausman now.

Am I right that tomorrow still matters as to who the Jays face in the playoffs? They're tied with Houston right now, and both are a game behind Texas. If all three end up with 90 wins, what happens?

Yes, if Texas and Houston are tied then Houston wins the West and is the 2-seed. If the Rangers and Jays tie then the Rangers hold the tiebreaker and would "get" to face the 4-seed, Tampa Bay, while the Jays have to face the 3-seed, Minnesota.

The Rays were in the WS three years ago and are clearly better than the Jays on paper.

The Twins haven't won a playoff game in about 20 years.

I've been semi-fooling myself into thinking I'd rather play Tampa--the Jays have played them about even this year, while the Twins might be bolstered by the absence of the Yankees--but the truth is I'd much rather draw the Twins. So if the Jays lose tomorrow, great. My suggestion is Davis Schneider as tomorrow's starting pitcher.

Can't remember who the guest was, but someone on the radio brought up Matt Chapman in connection with Brooks Robinson. Except for a stretch in the mid-'60s--which includes his MVP year--Robinson wasn't much of a hitter; his OPS+ for his career was 105. That's adjusted...because he played most of his career when pitchers dominated, his unadjusted numbers are not great: .267/.322/.401. Anyway, per 162 games, here's a comparison:

Robinson: 2.7 oWAR, 2.2 dWAR
Chapman: 4.1 oWAR, 2.2 dWAR

I'm definitely not saying Chapman is his equal, or headed to the HOF, or making any claim whatsoever. He's maddening--he was Mike Schmidt in April, and he's been Ken Reitz the rest of the year. But that comparison underscores that I and other Jays fans probably give him too hard a time.

Jays are starting Wes Parsons today, Gram's long-lost nephew. 31, hasn't pitched in the majors since 2019. Nice story, but I get the feeling they're content to lose and get the Twins.

Wes Parsons getting shellacked out there...Worst of all possible scenarios (if possible): Jays get killed, have to burn a bullpen arm or three, and end up having to play the Rays anyway.

Sorry for anyone who's down there and thought, when they bought their tickets weeks ago, they'd maybe be seeing a season-deciding game. Instead they've got the Buffalo Bisons and an 8-0 game after two innings.

All right--Houston up 8-0, Jays losing 12-6, if nothing changes we get the Twins.

Rangers have lost, so Twins fans can relax. The 19(?) game playoff losing streak will definitely end (there's no way this Jays team is sweeping anyone in a postseason series).

Hey--your equanimity is supposed to balance my doomsaying on this thread.

I want to win the $50,000 (mlb.com), so I made sure not to let emotion get involved.

https://i.postimg.cc/Z592cLjH/bracket.jpg

i'm with you . . . except for the brewers

Every guest on Blair and Barker, all I hear is Brewers-Brewers-Brewers.

Was personally offended by your brewers pick but I had the jays getting bounced in the wild card so all’s even-steven

I stopped posting here because I could just not be positive about this team (stopped watching them entirely for a while) - and watching them celebrate losing their way into the playoffs last night has absolutely not changed that feeling.

I just hope they have a plan for the postseason. This is a win now team. Baltimore and TB have the talent in place to dominate for the next few years, the Yankees will obviously be back and Boston is Boston. They have the pitching for a deep playoff run and if the offense can stay awake for a few games at a time then we might have something here. But I think this has to be the year.

They have a solid team for the next couple years imho. Only question I’m worried about next season is what happens with 3b. Also I think it’s weird they haven’t signed any of their young guys like Bo to contact extensions.

The team will be solid but I think they've hit their ceiling. If Pearson and Manoah can figure things out, if they sign another impact hitter, and everything goes right then they can win 95-100 games. But it's more likely that they're an 85-90 win team again, which might not be good enough to make the playoffs again.

https://bluejaysnation.com/news/toronto-blue-jays-brandon-belt-considering-retirement-hopes-he-made-his-family-proud

He faltered a bit in the playoffs, but otherwise he had a good year. His Ohtani MVP joke was one of the best quotes of the year.

Ancient history already, but I just wanted to preserve some player reaction here before this thread is replaced by a new one:

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/whit-merrifield-sounds-off-on-blue-jays-decision-to-pull-jose-berrios-early

I've sampled a lot of reaction in the last two days--online, on the radio, on TV; from fans, commentators, ex- and current players--and I've yet to encounter a single defense of pulling Berrios, which, considering that it actually didn't work out too badly from a run-prevention standpoint (and hinged on an infield hit), tells you everything you need to know. I think Blair summed it up nicely: this is a team that was preoccupied with gaming a 9th-inning matchup on the pitching side of it when their own offense was the same feeble joke for months on end.

NoTime: feeling the ground shift a little.