The Thread with a Looming Expiry Date: Luis Arraez Aims for .400

I said I'd put this up in a few days, but I want it get it posted while he still sits at .400--after tonight, he may not be there again for the rest of the season. (Left the accent off his name in case that affects searches.)

This cover from 1977 has haunted me for almost five decades. I think a lot of my baseball-watching life has been wanting to see some things that happened for the last time just before I started watching in 1970. I wanted to see Maris's HR record broken (done). I wanted to see a Triple Crown (done). I want to see someone take a run at Gibson's 1.12 (deGrom...you know the rest). And even though Williams hit .400 long before 1970, my first few years were spent watching Carew toy with .400 three or four times, most memorably in 1977.

https://phildellio.tripod.com/carew.jpg

I know I'll be disappointed, but--I posted Arraez's averages at every level of baseball a few weeks ago, and he's a machine--I think he's really a special player who I just wasn't paying enough attention to until this year.

fixed name spelling in thread title and 1st post

Carew in the '70s:

1970 - .402, May 23
1974 - .400, June 27
1975 - .400, June 16
1977 - .401, July 10

Also '83 -- .401, July 13

For what it's worth, I think the media onslaught if anybody made a late run in this day and age would be beyond unbearable--exponentially worse than whatever Olerud faced in '93 or Gwynn in '94. You got a glimpse of that with McGwire in '98; he was surly and miserable until Sosa arrived and added some fun back into everything.

(Thanks, WmC! I should never not cut-and paste.)

For what it's worth, I think the media onslaught if anybody made a late run in this day and age would be beyond unbearable

ok but what if the guy plays for the marlins?

That's a good point, and that might help...I still suspect it would become a national story if he even gets as far as August.

Come to think of it, Gwynn was spared the onslaught because of the unique circumstances of '94: he made a late run at .400, then the strike happened. I do remember '93 well, and it was pretty intense, at least in Toronto. Don't know what Arraez's personality is like, or if there's a temperament really suited to this kind of thing; affable and easy-going like Sosa would seem ideal.

I think the lack of excitement around this might be partially him being on the marlins, partially him being someone who's not a star per se. Could be more of a Marlins thing; I feel like the level of excitement around Stanton's crazy MVP season was pretty muted relative to the statistical accomplishments.

i agree it's a marlins thing and also tbh caring about a .400 batting average is more of a niche stat thing than like 62 HOME RUNS or whatever

arraez has been good for a while, still not sure exactly what led to the twins trading him

try explaining the significance of a .400 batting average to a non baseball fan

Latest-in-season .400 bids since Ted Williams

chipper was at .400 through 73 games in 2008 -- that's the last such longer than arraez's 67 games

I don't remember Chipper's bid at all, but I'm sure I was tracking him at the time; ended up at .364, which sounds about right (I'll peg Arráez at .370 or better, though). I played mlb's montage of hits last night for a bunch of grade 7 and 8 classes today; you can imagine how abstract ".400" and "Ted Williams" was to them.

"...and he would often scream, 'I'm Ted Fucking Williams of the major fucking leagues' to psyche himself up while taking batting practice. Don't talk like that, kids, it's bad."

i was making a joke about the marlins thing. ohtani is doing stuff that nobody currently living has ever seen on a major league field but his ability to cut thru the general cultural noise in america is.....

i'm in the midst of reading joe po's 100 top players book & he makes a similar point about the suffocating media attention if anyone ever got close to .400 again but i do think players (slash all human beings...) are to some extent used to being watched all the time now, that i'm not sure it would be the huge shift that people think it might be in their heads

I do think there's some truth to that right now, though, that if Arráez were in L.A. or New York or Houston, it'd be a bigger story (or, as pointed out earlier, if he were an established star). In the unlikely event he keeps going, none of that will matter at some point.

Putting .400 aside, there are four obvious comps for him the last few decades, and two of them were extremely close to where he sits at the same stage in their careers.

Arráez up to today, the other four up to and including the season where they passed his current number of PA (1860):

Arráez ('19-23): .327/.385/.422, 125 OPS+, 13.3 bWAR
Ichiro ('01-03): .328/.374/.440, 119 OPS+, 16.9 bWAR
Gwynn ('82-85): .325/.376/.412, 122 OPS+, 14.9 bWAR
Boggs ('82-85): .351/.430/.457, 140 OPS+, 27.1 bWAR
Carew ('67-71): .307/.354/.410, 116 OPS+, 14.6 bWAR

Boggs got off to such a fast start, he stands apart; Arráez, Ichiro, and Gwynn are very close; Carew has to contend with 4/5 seasons dominated by pitching, plus he hasn't hit his stride yet.

Main point: I don't think Arráez looks out of place there at all.

he is essentially the same player as tony gwynn, pretty crazy stuff

It's wild how hard it's been to even hit .370 in the postwar era, I mean
since Williams hit .388 in '57 only 10 times has anyone hit that mark (three Rockies, gwynn three times, bonds, Brett, Nomar, ichiro)

Oops carew, so make it 11

And those three Rockies seasons (even though they involve probably two HOF'ers and a third guy who was a very good hitter) have to be discounted at least 5-10%.

Scanning this very quickly at work, but if I've zeroed in on the right number, Fangraphs gives him about a 3% chance.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/luis-arraez-really-could-hit-400/

This is supposed to be cheering Arráez on, but it's more like a roundup of all the reasons why he'll fall short.

https://open.substack.com/pub/joeposnanski/p/friday-rewind-the-luis-arraez-watch?r=1jtu0&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Back over .400 with that hit1

A ridiculous hit too. Nearly in the dirt, pops it into centre field somehow. Just silly

3 hit night

Third HR today, 1-3, one more AB at least. Things you ignore when you want to believe: even though he walks a little (and leads the league in OBP), he just doesn't walk enough to make a deep run at this. Batting leadoff, there'll be lots of games where he gets five or six PA and doesn't draw a walk. So he'll need two hits a game, and if he doesn't get them, he'll need three the next night.

Carew, 1977 -- 69 BB, 9.9% of PA
Brett, 1980 -- 58 BB, 11.3% of PA
Gwynn, 1994 -- 48 BB, 10.1% of PA
Arráez, 2023 -- 22 BB, 8.1% of PA

Posnanski points this out, and I've been aware of it from the start. But, like I say, I want to believe. He's not wildly out of line with those three guys, but it adds up. On top of that, he has a sixth letter in his surname. That's going to be a big problem.

(So of course he walks next time up.)

so much harder to hit for average these days. the highest active career BA right now is miguel cabrera at .307, and only 2 other guys (altuve and trout) are above .300

those guys that could hit over .350 through their 4-5 year peak like gwynn, boggs, carew etc are pretty much extinct

Walk-off win for the Marlins, Arráez left in the on-deck circle. He walked twice after I posted!

I'm surprised Boggs, the one guy in this group who walked a lot, never really made a run. Quickly scanned his '80s game logs, and I can't find him at .400 any later than June 7 in '86. Once thing I did notice: was he a notoriously slow starter? Can't say that I remember that, but he seemed to be under .300 a lot of Aprils. I found one season, '85, where he was hitting .281 on May 26, then hit .397 the rest of the way (and ended up at .368).

He definitely warmed up as the season went along--almost a straight line north in the monthly splits for his career:

March/April - .302
May - .327
June - .329
July - .335
August - .330
Sept./Oct. - .337

I think the two most impressive seasons BA-wise since Williams might actually be the two catchers, Piazza's .362 in '97 and Mauer's .365 in '09. Piazza's year was aided by the PED offensive boom, but that was countered somewhat by him playing in Dodger Stadium; he had a .355/.368 home/road split, and probably would have hit over .370 most anywhere else. Mauer seemed to have a friendly home park--.388 at home--but overall offense throughout MLB had come down a bit in the intervening years. In any event, doing that while catching is incredible.

Didn't know he had a nickname: La Regadera ("literally, it's 'The Watering Can,' or 'The Sprinkler,' in this context for spraying hits all over the field").

And this is amazing:

6. Arraez has swung at 127 two-strike pitches in the strike zone and missed only two of them (with no foul tip).

https://www.si.com/mlb/2023/06/26/luis-arraez-batting-avg-hardest-accomplishment-baseball

Death by a thousand paper cuts--except for that wipeout in Seattle, he doesn't seem to take a lot of 0-fers, but enough 1-4s and 1-5s and it's over.

Thinking about that, I wondered how he compared to the others on that front.

Williams ('41): 30 0-fers/143 games (21%) - .406
Williams ('57): 29/132 (22%) - .388
Carew ('77): 24/155 (15%) - .388
Brett ('80): 23/117 (20%) - .390
Gwynn ('94): 20/110 (18%) - .394
Arráez (23): 13/75 (17%) - .396

The last four are pretty consistent; Williams, where 0-fer often means 0-1 or 0-2, is higher.

(Thing I don't get: in Ted Williams first five games in 1941, he had one PA only.)

Threw that together quickly before rushing out for golf...Brett is closer to Williams than he is to Carew; better to say all six seasons are more or less in line with each other.

Which means nothing without context, but I'm not energetic enough right now to see what the 0-fer percentage would be for, say, a group of .300 hitters.

Probably the one bit of random luck Arráez has had this year are the three 5-5 games; a lot has to go right for that to happen when you're mostly hitting singles. Rose had 10 five-hit games in his career; Gwynn had nine, Ichiro and Carew had 7 each. Arráez had three in a month. If you were to knock him down to 6-15 for those three games, he'd be hitting .365.

The Marlins have scored 25 runs in two games; Arráez, 2-8. Which is typical of his last couple of weeks. He had the two 5-hit games in three days after that Seattle series, and since then, he's hit in 14 of 15 games--but he's dropped from .400 to .385. I keep thinking of John Malkovich and his insane Russian accent in Rounders: "Hanging around, hanging around..." Hanging around, unfortunately, isn't good enough.

So of course he follows that by going 3-5 in a game where the Marlins are shut out. The two most realistic things to happen at this point: 1) I don't think anyone's ever won back-to-back batting titles while switching leagues; 2) largest margin over the runner-up. Not quite as exciting as .400...

Still exciting to me

He's still having a great season, and, leading a surprising playoff contender, he'd be a viable MVP candidate most years. Not with Acuna this year, though.

you’re right about the walks. if he walked just a bit more he’d have a real shot at this.

He may not even score 75 runs, which is just fucking weird (and, even with his modest walk rate, clearly has do to do with the people hitting behind him).

if he had better protection he'd walk a bit more too probably.

200 and 201st hits tonight. Are 200-hit seasons becoming rarer? Not sure, would have to investigate.

Only 70 runs scored...He'll get to 75, but I've got to believe that's the lowest total ever for a 200-hit guy, and maybe the lowest total ever for a batting champion.

in 2010 Ichiro had 214 hits and scored 74(!) runs

Kirby puckett went 215/75 in '89

but it's really rare. and i guess there's a chance Luis won't get to 75? one run every two games, if the guys behind him scuffle anything can happen.

garret anderson had a weird one: 201 hits, 29 HR, 49 doubles, 4 triples, 80 runs scored. it's hard to be a hitter w/80 plus XBH and that few runs scored.

There you go--thanks. Another famous one, although probably more common: Brook Jacoby in '87, where he played 155 games, hit .300 with 32 homers, and knocked in 69 runs.

Follow-up from stuff from the Elly De La Cruz thread: the thing you always heard about Carew, Boggs, and Ichiro, and I'm sure people say it about Arreaz, too, is that they could routinely hit 30+ homers if they wanted to. As much as I like them all, I'm skeptical about that.

Something I came across gives some context to how impressive .354 is in 2023: only 10 players hit .300 this year, the fewest in a season since 1968 (nine), the year of Gibson and McLain and having to lower the mound the following season.

i can't be bothered to look at the historical stats, and i've touched on this before, but there seems to be an unprecedentedly low number of active players with a career BA of .300 and above. right now, there are three. Trout, who seems likely to dip down below (he's at .301), Freeman is also at .301, and Altuve is .307 -- Arraez doesn't qualify per Baseball Reference yet, but he's presently at .326 and seems likely to be well above the mark when he reaches 3000 PA (two more seasons would do it.)

I might try to check this tonight (if there's a way), but I'm guessing that coming out of the PED era--at the end of the 2004 season, say--there were 15-20 hitters with 3,000 PA and a .300+ career average.

How's that for a guess? At least 19 players finished the 2004 season with 3,000+ PA and a career .300 average.

Todd Helton - .339
Vlad Guerrero - .325
Nomar Garciaparra - .322
Manny Ramirez - .316
Derek Jeter - .315
Mike Piazza - . 315
Edgar Martinez - .312
Frank Thomas - .308
Magglio Ordonez - .307
Ivan Rodriguez - .306
Mike Sweeney - .305
Chipper Jones - .304
Moises Alou - .300
Sean Casey - .304
Shannon Stewart - .303
Bernie Williams - .301
Roberto Alomar - .300
Barry Bonds - .300
Julio Franco - .300

Also, from the 2001 rookie class:

Ichiro Suzuki - .340
Albert Pujols - .333

Because of how I did this--a rough list from the all-time leaders, dropping down to .295, then checking their career average after the 2004 season myself--there's a decent chance someone was missed. It'd have to be a player who finished 2004 at .300+, then finished his career at .294 or lower. Which seems plausible.

I actually had spotted magglio's BR page earlier and saw that his final career ba was .309! that 2007 season where he hit .363 really helped him out.

ah man my old little league baseball coach shannon stewart, shoutout to shannon

i can't be bothered to look at the historical stats, and i've touched on this before, but there seems to be an unprecedentedly low number of active players with a career BA of .300 and above. right now, there are three.

And yet... advanced evaluative metrics say current players are as good as ever. Hang-ups on Boomer/pre-Boomer box score stats when even little leaguers are familiar with and coached launch angle (yet probably not hard-hit%s and barrel%s lol). While BA may have some old school charm, it's not going to get you in the lineup as fast as LA/HH/Bar or even gen-x stats like OPS. There may be a very good reason why we'll see less and less BA grinders in the future.

Nothing against Arraez of course, his impressive BA was a product of several factors of his skillset and I'd imagine not something he was focused on.

teams just value walking + power over contact and have for a while now. the incentives for any player who can access lift + power at the expense of contact are pretty clear

All true, it's just more of an interesting change than anything worthy of alarmism

Masataka Yoshida is a pure contact guy, even with a huge slump (completely gassed towards end of the season, not unusual for JP players especially as he did WBC as well) he finished with .289. His last two months tanked his numbers but I would consider him a safe bet after finishing the season and going through the grind once.

That list I compiled obviously has some all-time greats, but there also a handful of players who, in the context of their era, weren't all that valuable offensively: Sweeney, Casey, and Stewart are the three that come to mind. They had moderate power, took 50 or 60 walks a year. With guys routinely hitting 50 HR or .350+, or slugging .700+, their .300 averages weren't a big deal. I checked their OPS+ through 2004: Sweeney's was 122, Casey's 114, Stewart's 111. .300 then didn't mean what .300 now does.

In 1930, the NL hit .303 as a league!

The point I'm trying to make, I guess, is that I think Luis Arraez, right now, has more in common with peak Nomar than with Mike Sweeney or Shannon Stewart.

Arreaz OPS+ (2022-2023): 131
Nomar OPS+ (1997-2003): 135

It's just a case of, does he get even better, or have we already seen his peak?

Dante Bichette came frighteningly close to being a .300 career hitter*, along with a bunch of big power** years and loads of RBIs*** obv

luis arraez feels to me like nu-bill madlock, which is hardly a dis, he was very close to being in the hall of very good.

Interesting...I tend to group Madlock/Buckner/Al Oliver together; they were like the second-tier high-average hitters in the '70s, after Carew. Arraez isn't Rod Carew, so that be a reasonable comparison.

"might be"

Peak Madlock (1974-83): .316, 129 OPS+
Peak Buckner (1972-82): .300, 106 OPS+
Peak Oliver (1972-83): .322, 127 OPS+

I've just shown Bill Buckner the door...the other two, very good comps.

Last one. Fewer walks, more HR, briefer peak, and more children scattered here and there, but also not bad (and a tough hitting environment):

Peak Garvey (1973-80): .311, 129 OPS+

the Yoshida example is instructive. If he worked on improving launch angle and lifting the ball, his average would probably go down but he also wouldn't hit into so many got-danged double plays

According to his coaches in Japan when he starts hitting grounders more then it means he’s tired. He’s supposedly working on stamina this year for the long season.

btw he’s hit over 20 home runs several times in Japan, really think it’s being gassed to blame

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yoshid002mas

Going to the Pad's apparently!

The return, per source: Dillon Head, Woo Suk-Goo, Jakob Marsee, Nathan Martorella. On it: @CraigMish https://t.co/VnxhAkLdyT

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) May 4, 2024

does this make the marlins the first to (understandably) throw in the towel on the season?

I think the A’s threw in the towel before the season started

Since the start of the season? Sure. Kinda wild to go from making the post-season to giving up at the start of May the following year

Can't seem to google an answer, but my guess is he could be the first guy ever to win batting titles with three different teams--lots of time.

Probably even be difficult to find someone with a .320+ lifetime average about to play for his third team before he's 30.

.320 is a pretty high bar tbf

Only thing similar i can think of is that Soto could lead the league in BB for three different teams if he keeps it up this year. And he’s only 25!

Same basic point for both guys: even in the FA era, when you're that good, a third team this early in your career is (I think) relatively rare, or at least for non-pitchers.

“The guy is probably the closest to Tony Gwynn that there is right now, so I’m looking forward to seeing him in the lineup. Only seven batting titles away [from passing Tony Gwynn],” Tatis said with a laugh. “That why I said the closest.”

3-3 with a double!

Answer to question I posed above: no, no one's ever won batting titles with three different teams.

https://www.mlb.com/news/luis-arraez-can-win-batting-title-with-third-team-in-2024

Didn't realize Bill Madlock won four batting titles--most by anyone not in the HOF. I'm trying to remember if he was thought of as a good-bet HOF'er back in '83, after he won his fourth. Where he stood going into his age-33 season: 1,557 hits, .317/.378/.459, OPS+ of 130, 34.3 WAR, one World Series title ('79 Pirates), MVP votes in seven seasons, and the four batting titles. I don't think he was...I know one place to check when I get home.

i remember Madlock as a kid because he was the first example i saw of a guy who was simply a professional *hitter*, in the respect that he didn't have much else to his game beyond that. i don't recall him being a guy anyone talked about as a legend beyond his batting titles, and i think once Boggs and Gwynn came up with their more well-rounded game and won numerous titles between them, he was kind of forgotten. i suppose maybe he's kind of a little bit Michael Young, a little bit Mark Grace, a really excellent player that no one seriously considered an all-timer but an of-his-timer.

I was interested because batting titles were a bigger thing in the '70s and into the '80s, but you're right, Boggs and Gwynn (and later Ichiro) brought much better overall games (although, as I said on another thread, Madlock was a much better hitter than the superficially similar Bill Buckner). I wanted to check what James had to say while Madlock was still active, and he wasn't much of a fan--had him ranked 48th among third baseman in the revised Historical Abstract. "I never saw any other player who was as focused on batting championships as Bill Madlock." (Rose?) Wasn't meant as a compliment.

To be honest, I liked him better on the mariners

*marlins damnit lol

.419 as a Padre, up to .341 for the season (16 hits in last 6 games).

Can't remember where I read this - here? - that Arraez has one of the slowest bat speeds in the majors

Yeah but his swing is also one of the shortest

https://www.mlb.com/news/luis-arraez-bat-tracking-breakdown

xp

Posnanski's whole column the other day was about this...The most beautiful compact swing I've ever seen was Paul Moitor's.

He still doesn't score many runs--31 in 226 PA this year--and he'll never be a great player as measured by WAR: doesn't walk enough, so-so fielder (it looks like), doesn't steal much, only 43 XBH/162 games. I just think he's a fun throwback and seemingly a wizard in terms of bat control. It's like he's somewhere between Bill Madlock and Tony Gwynn.

Or like Willians Astudillo, but good.

Just noticed he's leading the NL in hitting at, incredibly, .302. That'd be the lowest mark since Yaz famously won the batting title in '68, the "Year of the Pitcher," hitting .301. (It'd probably be the second-lowest mark ever.) It would also be his third batting title in a row.

Otherwise, not having a good year. His OPS+ is 99, so he's just a league-average hitter. He's walking less than ever (17 for the year), and his XBH are down (26). He still doesn't strike out, and that's good, but he also grounds into far more DP than I'd expect for a bat-control guy (18 last year, 17 so far this year). So...when he's really good, like he was last year, I think it's fair to compare him to Gwynn/Carew/Ichiro--not as good, but within range. This year, he's more like Bill Buckner, the kind of empty .300 hitter sabermetrics came along to expose.

I used him on Immaculate Grid this morning...He just doesn't score runs, does he? Made sense when he was on a lousy Marlins team, but he didn't score runs for the Twins in 2022 (88 in 603 PA + batting title), and he doesn't score much for the Padres, either (58 in 479 PA, .327). The Padres are fifth in the league in runs scored, 35 runs above average. I know he doesn't walk much, but his career OBP is .374. It's weird.

And yet...very much in line with Carew and Gwynn:

Arraez - .374 OBP, 88 runs/162 games (never 100 runs)
Carew - .393 OBP, 93 runs/162 games (100+ runs once)
Gwynn - .388 OBP, 92 runs/162 games (100+ runs twice)

Point of comparison, Mookie Betts: .374 OBP, 126 runs/162 games (100+ runs five times)

I thought this post would be about his strikeouts, or lack thereof. Two (!!) strikeouts since the ASB?

Amazing, for sure...just puzzled by the runs.

Betts is obviously not a fair comparison. Here's a good one, though: Kenny Lofton.

Arraez - .374 OBP, 109 OPS+, 88 runs/162 games (never 100 runs)
Lofton - .372 OBP, 107 OPS+, 118 runs/162 games (100+ runs six times)

forget strikeouts, how long can he go without any of the three true outcomes happening

sad to say, because i like the empty .300 hitter archetype (good contact, zero power, just like me) and i want them to succeed, but i'd guess the looming expiration date for arraez is his early 30s. it's not just the lack of power - he is one of the worst defenders in baseball, already moving down the positional slide to 1B, and even then, he's one of the worst fielding first basemen. since he doesn't have much speed either, he's soon going to have just his one skill: contact.

juan pierre had a very similar hitting profile to arraez - both of them walk and strikeout at incredibly low rates, with zero power and high contact rates. the difference is, juan pierre was very fast and also an average OF. arraez is an average/slow runner and already stuck at 1B/DH at 27. :-o

i do want him to hit .400 though!

.322 hitters can’t catch a break these days

xp re: lofton and arraez, i think it comes down to three things:

1) lofton was very speedy - imagine all those times he was able to score going from 1st to home on a double, or 2nd to home on an iffy single, where arraez wouldn't have the speed to score

2) lofton had a bit more power (around .130 ISO for most of his career, whereas arraez is around .100) which put him in scoring position more often

3) just going by memory, but i think some of those mid-90s cleveland teams were probably more likely to drive him in than the early 2020s twins/marlins

bonus possible 4) run scoring environments in lofton's career vs now? runs scored per game are down to about 4.41 this year (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/bat.shtml), whereas in lofton's era it was more like 4.8 - 5.1. it doesn't seem like much of a difference, but that's about 10% more runs scored per game

this concludes this edition of "i haven't actually seen him play more than twice but i'm consulting statistics make big guesses"

was kenny a good base stealer?

>I used him on Immaculate Grid this morning.

dude.

he ended up with a success rate of 80%, so not phenomenal but enough to make it a positive. but i was paying more attention to his overall running (including first to home, second to home and making good baserunning decisions) as measured by the fangraphs BsR stat (which includes SB and CS too). for his career, lofton ended up at 68.5 BsR runs above average, which is 18th all-time (just above beltran and just below gardner. fun list!). and even at age 36 in 2003, lofton was 7th in the league in BsR, so it was something he was able to maintain through his 30s.

(juan pierre 4th all-time on that list! and on a per-game basis, he was a Rickey-level runner on the basepaths.

career BsR

1st: rickey henderson, 13,346 PAs, 144.4 BsR (0.0108 BsR/PA)

4th: juan pierre, 8280 PAs, 89.4 BsR (0.0108 BsR/PA)

2,824th: arraez, -2.7 BsR (obviously still playing so the number will change, but not likely to tip into the positive region)

just for fun, here's the worst 5 career baserunners:

https://i.imgur.com/TMjTUvx.png

That was the first thing I thought of after posting, that Lofton's career was encompassed by the PED era, so a 108 OPS+ then meant more in terms of actual runs than a 108+ today. I still like Arraez a lot, but I'm thinking he's probably more Willie Wilson/Mickey Rivers/Ralph Garr than Carew/Gwynn.

(I used him in the most obvious way imaginable on the grid this morning Thermo, one you'd want to avoid anyway.)

i honestly hadn't thought of him (was in the mulling over phrase in a busy/stressful day for me) went on to make a pick i think is likely way less popular

congrats on this thread for putting the jinx on arraez (3rd strikeout since asb)

he was also thrown out at home by a country mile (again thanks to the jinx of this thread)

But up to .323 and pulling away for another batting title!

Luis Arraez went 141 plate appearances without a strikeout, before finally doing so on Monday. That’s the third-longest streak of consecutive PA without striking out since 2000, per Elias. He trails only 2004 Juan Pierre (147) and 2001 Pierre (143). If you’re curious, the record in the expansion era (1961) is 223, by 1976 Dave Cash.

Are there stats that capture the value of not striking out?

capt obvious here but OBP (ie, not making an out during a PA) does this (and more!)

Right but I mean say, grounding out (and potentially? actually?) moving a runner 90 feet closer to home vs a K

what's the value of tiring out a pitcher? does anybody track average number of pitches at bat for hitters?

Of course, sometimes striking out is better than grounding out, for example, those guys who come to the plate with someone on first and wind up grounding into a double play. The strikeout would’ve been better at that point. You could probably dig deep into the statistics and find situational value in the outcome of every at bat. All the way down to the speedy dude who comes to the plate with a slow-ass statue on first, grounds out and gets the force at second, but beats the throw to first, and has replaced the slow runner with himself. That’s probably the type of overanalysis that leads to becoming a crazy person though.

Also, it’s not necessarily reflective of actual real-life value, but in our fantasy league Arraez is a player whose value is pretty negligible. He contributes nothing except on base percentage (we don’t do BA.)

I would think the combination of hitting the ball hard and not striking out much--DiMaggio, Mattingly--would be valuable, less so with a bat-control guy.

Not in the lineup tonight. With Ohtani going for a Triple Crown--and unless there's a physical issue--that's really cheap.

Surprisingly, I agree

Say hello to Luis @Arraez_21's little friend 🤗 pic.twitter.com/lwHax2fPqS

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) October 11, 2024

Me, last year: Didn't know he had a nickname: La Regadera ("literally, it's 'The Watering Can,' or 'The Sprinkler,' in this context for spraying hits all over the field").

Can now be officially changed to "the Spraying Mantis."

nice

The things players will push through over a full season never cease to amaze me

https://i.postimg.cc/sxgXRzwv/IMG-6755.jpg

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-myth-of-luis-arraez/

i'm too dumb to understand the sabrmetrics in this article but i guess i understand the conclusion (hitting a bunch of singles with nobody on base isn't that valuable)

Basically, yes. Just depends with Arraez. If he hits .350 with 40 XBH and 35 walks, like in 2023, he's a huge asset; if, like he did this year, he hits .320 with 30 XBH and 25 walks, much less so. Doesn't mean he still doesn't do amazing things, like his no-strikeout streak, or that he's not still fun to watch, just that he's veering towards the kind of empty .300 hitter (cf. Bill Buckner) that prompted sabermetrics in the first place.

I didn’t read that fully but I’ve seen discourse on Twitter about both Arraez and Tony Gwynn(!) to that effect. I like Arraez but the game is so power focused now a guy like him is probably underrated as a pure contact hitter. I agree he probably isn’t that valuable as a leadoff guy, he gets on base a ton but iirc he doesn’t run fast or steal a lot so you could be waiting for a couple of hits to advance him.

Jarren Duran is also mentioned in that piece and he was really good at leading off this year; he stole 34 bases, hit 48 doubles and 14 triples so he was getting into scoring position or driving in runs a more than Arraez did. (FG is too advanced for a flawed stat like rbi but Duran had 75 rbis & a wrc+ of 129 vs Arraez’s 46. Even looking further down the Sox lineup, Triston Casas missed four months but still scratched out a wrc+ of 119 and 32 RBIs in his limited season vs Arraez having 46/109. Not to go on about the Sox guys too much, I just happen to know their stats best).

But there’s still a place for a low k bloop merchant imo - it just seems likely to be further down the lineup where he’s getting more chances to push runners home. Cannot tell you how many teams I’ve watched over the year just died with risp and that’s when you need an Arraez type at the plate, not with bases empty and nobody on. I would have killed for him - or his Sox equivalent, a healthy Yoshida - so many times this year in certain spots.

Yeah, it does depend on what kind of a lineup you insert him into; in a year like this one, he's not really suited to hit leadoff, but he'd be perfect towards the bottom of a good offensive lineup--he'd function more like a second leadoff hitter to roll the lineup over, but with less pressure.

Tony Gwynn's practically my favourite player of the past 40 years, and (as I posted yesterday) you're always seeing some amazing thing he did. But from a sabermetric standpoint, he often gets compared to Tim Raines, the point being that Raines actually got on base more and had much more XBH power.

If it sounds like I'm down on Arraez, I'm not. I hope to spend many years watching him pursue 3,000 hits.

Yes exactly, the second leadoff in the middle of a lineup you get more use out of those hits. 5th or 6th probably a good spot for him.

Don’t worry, I’m sure he’ll be sprinkling hits over the field for years to come. Isn’t he only 26 or something?

I garbled the Gwynn/Raines comparison a bit--Gwynn had the higher OPS+, Raines comes out ahead on WAR (mostly the baserunning I'm guessing--not sure how much fielding plays into that).

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/comparing-the-career-resumes-of-tim-raines-and-tony-gwynn/

I’m sure he’ll be sprinkling hits over the field for years to come

The Spraying Mantis sprays, not sprinkles!

replying to:

i can't be bothered to look at the historical stats, and i've touched on this before, but there seems to be an unprecedentedly low number of active players with a career BA of .300 and above. right now, there are three.

I said:

And yet... advanced evaluative metrics say current players are as good as ever. Hang-ups on Boomer/pre-Boomer box score stats when even little leaguers are familiar with and coached launch angle (yet probably not hard-hit%s and barrel%s lol). While BA may have some old school charm, it's not going to get you in the lineup as fast as LA/HH/Bar or even gen-x stats like OPS. There may be a very good reason why we'll see less and less BA grinders in the future.

― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, November 9, 2023 3:41 PM (eleven months ago)

Nothing against Arraez of course, his impressive BA was a product of several factors of his skillset and I'd imagine not something he was focused on.

― citation needed (Steve Shasta), Thursday, November 9, 2023 3:43 PM (eleven months ago)

Sorry to rehash, but I found it relevant yet again.

Arraez was #28 in OBP in 2024, #77 in OPS.

from Posnanski's post today:

PECOTA projects ONE .300 hitter in baseball

That’s right. One. You can guess who that .300 hitter will be — yep, Luis Arráez at .321.

You can probably also guess who it has second — Houston’s hitting savant Yordan Alvarez. But, without looking, I’ll bet you can’t guess the batting average they’re projecting for Yordan. What do you think — .297? Lower. How about .293? Keep going. .290? Down. .288? Still down. .285?

PECOTA projects Yordan Alvarez to lead the American League in batting average ... at .282.

That’s right. The lowest batting average to ever lead either league was Carl Yastrzemski’s .301 in the year of the pitcher, 1968. The lowest batting average to ever lead the National League was Tony Gwynn’s .313 in 1988. Alvarez leading the league at .282 — or really any number that doesn’t start with a 3 — would be historic, and not in a thrilling way.

I say there's no way .282 leads the A.L. Witt led with .332 last year--what exactly happened in the off-season that would trigger a 50-point drop?

even Altuve, i'd say has a fair shot at .300

quick explanation (and stop if you've heard this before), but the alvarez projection of .282 is the mean of millions of simulated seasons. in some of those simulated seasons, alvarez hits .345. in some, he hits .252. the mean of all those simulations is .282

the league leader, irl, at the end of the season, is NOT likely to be mean projection for that player. it's far more likely to be that player hitting at a 90th percentile of his projections, exceeding his expectations.

in the same way, every year there are pre-season projections for teams. right now, fangraphs has the 2025 dodgers at 97 wins (https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings - check the section on the far right, "2025 Projected Full Season"), the braves second at 93 wins, and the yankees third at 89 wins. does that mean that fangraphs believes that only 1 team will pass 95 wins in 2025, and 28 teams out of 30 will finish with less than 90? no. those 97 projected wins for the dodgers means that, if you run the 2025 pre-season simulation a million times and average the number of wins the dodgers have at the end, the mean is 97 wins. in many of those seasons (about half), they exceeded 97 wins. in some of those simulated seasons they won 107 games, or even 114. but also, in some of those simulated seasons they all got injured and somehow only won 86 games. but if you average them all together, it comes out to 97 wins, as just the _average_ of all those simulated outcomes. again, similar to the batting average leader, we don't expect the leader of the league to be a team/batter that meets their _average_ projection. it's usually a team that has _exceeded_ expectations/mean projections.

does PECOTA publish their percentile projections? (ie, the 10th percentile projection for altuve, the 50th (which is the mean, and comes out as the "projection", the 90th)?

if you look at the 90th percentile projection for altuve, it will be above .300

sorry if that doesn't make any sense, or if it's too obvious. but i think it's the #1 misconception about baseball statistics

Helpful context, didn't know that. To me, that's a red flag that they should adjust their system, make some kind of common-sense corrective...which I know sounds vague, but James was always pretty good at correcting for things that made no sense on the face of it.

and before you get there, you're right that luis arraez is projected for .321, and he could well lead the league in BA with that .321. but that just demonstrates what an outlier arraez is! in millions of projected 2025 seasons, his average season comes out to .321. that's his 50th percentile projection, and even at that, he could win the batting title. but you'll be excited to know that in SOME of those simulated seasons, in fact about half, he hits for even better than .321. he probably flirts with .400 in some of those simulated seasons! if arraez has a better than his 50th percentile season, he has a very good chance of winning the battle title.

glad it makes sense! it's always hard to explain (which is why i tried to use a few different examples), but every single year the projections come out for teams and every single fanbase is angry that the projections seem too low (because they're thinking of an optimistic, informed version of what they know the team is capable of, not the broad range of possibilities of what could happen. for example, the cardinals were projected for mid-85 wins in 2023, and everyone here was angry about that because of course we knew the 2023 cardinals were capable of 92 wins, easily. when they won negative 30 games instead, we all just promptly forgot about it, but that was the real life 2nd or 3rd percentile outcome, way lower than the 50th)

take a look at this (for arraez and the padres): https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-san-diego-padres/

most of the article/charts on top are for the mean/50th percentile ZIPS projections. ZIPs says the 50th percentile outcome for arraez is .307.

now scroll down to the "Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles" chart. there, the 20th percentile projection for arraez is a .272 BA. in other words, in the bottom 20% of the projected Arraez seasons for 2025, he hits .272 or lower. but now look at the 80th percentile projection: .338! that means that the top 20% of his projected seasons, he hits for .338 or better.

ZIPs/fangraphs has these 50th/20th/80th percentile projections for every player. if you want to dream about how your favorite player could do if they have a good season (by their own standards), check out those 80th percentile projections!

also, one more thing that might not be obvious - projections include injury seasons. in some simulated seasons, your fave player gets hurt on Apr 1 and it's a "lost" season'. that plays into the projections just as much as that dream mvp career-year kind of simulation, and it's why the mean percentile is often lower than you think it would be. those low percentile seasons are full of "lost years" - if you looked at the 1st percentile projection for arraez, you'd probably see something like 5 games played, 6 hits, 1 RB or something. they don't show the 1st percentile because those are simulations where the catastrophe happened

isn't that overall a good thing tho - sort of factors in lost time with injury prone guys?
i was looking at the fangraphs auction draft calculator and you use different projection sources and the first to had DeGroon as a top 2 starter and i was like "no way he's going to pitch enough to be worth at amount", but when i switched to ZIPs he dropped down to where i would have expected.
also you now know my secret fantasy draft weapon, if anyone was wondering how i have maintained my back-half-of-the-pack success

oh, absolutely a good thing. i do think that sites that host projections should do a better job of explaining what they mean (and explaining in plain language and with good examples, not like the way i tried to do it). buuuuut yes, i understand why the primary thing they show is the 50th percentile projections, and once you understand how it works it's much more useful that way

also, during the few early years where i did well in the ilb fantasy league, thermo, i was also using zips + z-scores

Oohh!

https://i.imgur.com/SWMNp5F.png

IRL slash:
.000/.067/.067

statcast expected:
.191/.201/.230

either way... big yikes!

what happened over the offseason?

It’s been four games. Also, he had surgery on his thumb in October because it was injured last season.

This is scary:

https://www.mlb.com/news/luis-arraez-carted-off-after-collision-with-mauricio-dubon

Concussion IL at minimum but yeah, hopefully nothing is awry and it’s just unfortunate

Luis Arraez (head) was released from the hospital and rejoined the Padres on Sunday evening in Houston.

He’ll stay in Houston overnight and as long as he’s feeling alright he’ll join the Padres in Detroit on Monday. Arraez was in good spirits, smiling and talking with teammates and reporters on Sunday night and it sounds like he was extremely fortunate to have avoided any significant injuries in his scary collision with Mauricio Dubon.