The takes are hot and so is the stove: Hot Stove 24-25

Free agency begins five days after the last out of the World Series. Notable free agents:

- Blake Snell (again)
- Max Fried
- Corbin Burnes
- some other guy, John Sewtoe? Idk, maybe he plays for the Brewers or something

Interesting to see how Boras approaches this winter given he got fired by Monty last year.

Athletic has an off-season timeline:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5884166/2024/10/31/mlb-offseason-schedule-key-dates-deadlines/?source=user_shared_article MLB’s offseason schedule

i put this on the white sox thread but their new manager is will venable

Juan Soto anyone?

Ok

And so the offseason begins: The Atlanta Braves are trading outfielder Jorge Soler to the Los Angeles Angels, a source tells ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) October 31, 2024

the battle for baseball supremacy in LA is renewed

White Sox opening at 500-1 to win next World Series seems kinda optimistic.

If the NYM sign Soto away from the NYY, Yankees' fans are going to lose it.

#HaloNation

If there are no lingering health issues, I assume the Yankees will cough up the extra year/$36M (especially if Soto leaves).

https://www.mlb.com/news/gerrit-cole-opts-out-of-contract-with-yankees-after-2024-season

Cole to LAD would be *chefs kiss*

yanks only have until tomorrow night to decide on cole. i would be stunned if they let him walk (and i'll bet he would be too)

Cole to LAD would be *chefs kiss*

― Its big ball chunky time (Jimmy The Mod Awaits The Return Of His Beloved), Saturday, November 2, 2024 12:58 PM (thirty-four minutes ago)

Roberts would have him doing endless "always cover first" drills lol

Yeah I’m sure the opt out was just in case he turned out to be dogshit but the Yanks will surely be invoking their option.

i wouldn’t read too much into the opt-out i think cole is just covering his bases

No pun intended!

Jays want in on the Soto sweepstakes? Can it be?

I read on Twitter that he's on a plane right now, headed this way.

KC resigns Wacha for $51M/3y

That feels, excessive for him?!

Actually, I take that back. He’s been very reliable the last three years. 3.30 ERA and averaged 3.1 WAR.

wacha flocka paid

Ok

Right-hander Gerrit Cole is remaining with the New York Yankees on the four-year, $144 million deal that he had opted out of, sources told ESPN. Discussions on a potential contract extension will continue. Essentially, it’s the same as if Cole did not opt out.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 4, 2024

he was completely dominant against the best lineup in baseball for 2 games in the world series, pay the man his money!

huh. maybe i'm wrong and they'll extend him, but it sure seems like cole didn't actually want to leave and that the yankees knew this and made him blink

You know about the +1/35M thing that the yankees can activate to negate the opt out rite?

yes

oh i see what's happening. weird

is cole likely to be worth $36m in his age-38 season? he has a better chance than almost anyone, but i'm not sure it's a *good* chance. and in this new era of relative restraint (lol) i guess the yankees may 'need' that money to spend on soto

It feels like a gamble right? But I guess they view - or viewed at the time he signed this - him as the kind of pitcher who ages well and is still giving you something in his late thirties like Verlander. Wasn’t this year his first real injury?

huh. maybe i'm wrong and they'll extend him, but it sure seems like cole didn't actually want to leave and that the yankees knew this and made him blink

My first thought as well.

we got QO's

Juan Soto, New York Yankees
Corbin Burnes, Baltimore
Alex Bregman, Houston
Max Fried, Atlanta
Willy Adames, Milwaukee
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Anthony Santander, Baltimore
Teoscar Hernández, Los Angeles Dodgers
Nick Pivetta, Boston
Christian Walker, Arizona
Sean Manaea, New York Mets
Luis Severino, New York Mets
Nick Martinez, Cincinnati

feel like pete alonso is in for severe disappointment this winter

turns 30 in a month, stats already trending down, bad fielder, prototypical guy who doesn't age well, agent scott boras. worried he's gonna hold out for a big deal that simply isn't forthcoming

Sort of like Conforto, who turned down a megadeal at the beginning of this walk year and ended up out of the game for a year.

*his

I find Alonso has made his fair share of excellent plays at first base, even if the stats don’t bear that out

feel like pete alonso is in for severe disappointment this winter

turns 30 in a month, stats already trending down, bad fielder, prototypical guy who doesn't age well, agent scott boras. worried he's gonna hold out for a big deal that simply isn't forthcoming

*his

I find Alonso has made his fair share of excellent plays at first base, even if the stats don’t bear that out

Brian Cashman says there are no contract extension talks going on with Gerrit Cole, per @martinonyc

Cashman says the Yankees were not comfortable adding another year to Cole’s contract, and he agreed to remain on his current deal with four years, $144 million remaining pic.twitter.com/Iqvh4Q4eQh

— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) November 5, 2024

yeah that's a blink! nice try tho

in a sense it's still a W for cole because the yankees are basically admitting that his deal is an overpay at 4/144 bcuz they don't need to use the opt out cancellation as leverage to get him to return. confirmation for gerrit that he has an above market contract

that said, the opt out is an effective cancellation of the contract so the yankees could have in theory not offered him the same deal, which means they must have talked all this out beforehand and cole knew the yankees would still put the same offer back on the table, so it's not clear to me why both sides went thru the process just to remain back in the same place. there must be some contractual fine print or luxury tax loopholing or something going on

I feel like Alonso is perfect for the Yankees

they must have talked all this out beforehand and cole knew the yankees would still put the same offer back on the table, so it's not clear to me why both sides went thru the process just to remain back in the same place

oh, i doubt it! i think cole, recognizing the yankees desperately need him for them compete over the next four years, tried to pressure the yankees, who recognized that cole already had an overvalued contract and was famously a 12yo kid holding up a GO YANKEES sign and didn't actually want to go elsewhere. and that the yankees mostly won that standoff

almost counts as the incredibly rare instance of a mutual option being accepted by both sides

i think it was a "standoff" insofar as cole didn't get the option year added, but i think it was clearly all prearranged. because if they were playing hardball w/ each other, and cole was genuinely trying to leverage the yankees, then it follows that the yankees wouldn't come back to the table and say "hey, no harm no foul on that opt out, here's the same exact deal you just threw in the trash"

you have to assume boras knew long before today that there wasn't a better deal than 4/144 out there for him, and so i find it extremely hard to believe that cole would have opted out w/o knowing that the 4/144 offer would still be on the table, which leads me to believe this was all hashed out ahead of time, and also that there is some explanation be it luxury tax or whatever for why this whole charade went down just for him to end up on the same deal

i remain skeptical but am looking forward to jack curry blasting cole for being greedy and disloyal!

idk, if this was all prearranged why leak it to the media?

occam's razor - mookie's theory is the more convincing one to me. i'm betting cole didn't get any whispers from other teams after the opt out went public, hence his willingness to basically mutually cancel the opt out.

don't think the yankees could have offered a lower contract than 4/144 even if it was within their prerogative because of all the press that would have generated and the psychic damage it would have caused cole.

This wasn't one of those deals where the player opts out and becomes a free agent, the Yankees had veto power. There's always the risk of opting out and sitting at home without getting any good offers, that wasn't what happened here. The Yankees said "nah, we'd rather not pay the extra $36M if you don't mind" and Cole said, "OK, I'm not dumb enough to walk away from $144M guaranteed" and that was that.

I'm not sure why Cole tried pulling this stunt after a year where he was injured. Maybe he thought he could get a deal like deGrom's?

Accurate

Free agent hitters tier list pic.twitter.com/udcB9Y4Ds8

— jack (@Jolly_Olive) November 5, 2024

beloved but washed 35yo RHP kyle hendricks (trio) to the angels for one year/$2.5m

dodgers poised to sign roki sasaki??

Based on what? Him being posted? It hasn’t even happened yet. Jeff Passan wrote about it when he said they’d have an advantage but Sasaki would also not enjoy the extreme coverage that follows Ohtani and Yamamoto, also flagged up Sasaki’s closeness to Darvish.

dodgers have the most international free agent bonus pool money left while the padres have the least

altho reading more i guess it’ll depend on whether he’s signed with 2024 bonus pool money or 2025 bonus pool money (pads have more under 2025)

HOT STOVE ADJACENT?

There was a tiktok floating around the other day of Yoshinobu Yamamoto walking around Beverly Hills with a young woman who I recognized as Niki Niwa from Terrace House - Aloha State.

https://www.tiktok.com/@jackbanana/video/7433624389163224363

lol. Ofc he was on Rodeo Drive, man unashamedly loves his luxe.

Shocking Athletic headline: "Juan Soto next team odds: Yankees, Mets and Dodgers are top contenders."

good review of the sasaki situation and its ramifications for NPB and MLB

https://dodgersdigest.com/2024/11/11/everything-you-need-to-know-about-roki-sasaki

wild he is represented by an ad agency (whom also happen to be one of my clients)!!

lol your mission is clear

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=500Li1Pqxag

reports saying roki sasaki may want to go to a small market team...

...mariners??

Would be surprising if so but don’t rule them out I guess. Would mean Dipoto would ship out a starter (he’s said he doesn’t want to do that.)

Catcher Travis d’Arnaud and the Los Angeles Angels are in agreement on a two-year, $12 million contract, sources tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 12, 2024

Huh.

Royals traded Brady Singer to the Reds for Jonathan India and OF Joey Wiemer

Ok

Yusei Kikuchi to the Angels. $63M, 3 years.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 25, 2024

is that the guy who rented out the sushi restaurant for ohtani?

Yes! Maybe he can go to Ippei’s dad’s izakaya

Kikuchi has great stuff and when he pitched for the Jays I often thought that he was better than his stats. The Astros got him to mix up his pitch selection and he rode a lucky win streak to a 9th place finish in CY voting. His contract will either be the steal of the offseason or a running joke for years to come, I think there's no inbetween on this one.

I don't know...I think he's the kind of pitcher who can thrive as a third or fourth starter on a good team. Houston was ideal for him; I don't think the Angels will be.

he has impressive stuff; but still gets knocked around sometimes even when he doesn't look off. i think those last 10 games for the Astros were just a streak of good games and nothing more. it's not going to ruin the Angels finances or anything - the guy can still be an ok back of the rotation arm for the next few years.

xpost

Wait, $21M/yr only gets you an OK back of the rotation arm? I don't think that's what the Angels are paying for.

here are the SP salaries from last year in this range

robbie ray -- $23m
chris bassitt -- $22m
charlie morton -- $20m
joe musgrove -- $20m
nathan eovaldi -- $20m
marcus stroman -- $18m
jameson taillon -- $18m
lucas giolito -- $18m

fangraphs WAR would tell you that kikuchi has been better over the last two years than many of these pitchers. i haven't watched him pitch much so i don't have an opinion personally. to what extent these pitchers are "OK back of the rotation arms" or more than that is up for discussion, but i think the angels would argue that kikuchi is in this range of pitcher performance wise (if not better!) and so they paid market value (if not less!) on the contract. whether this theory actually plays out as he hits age 34, or whether it makes sense for the angels to be spending on this kind of pitcher, are separate discussions. but in terms of "this" being what ~$20m gets you in the SP FA market.... yeah

He and his wife are a very funny tag-team interview; that should be factored in too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGS_nDGeewI

I don't think that's what the Angels are paying for.

― NoTimeBeforeTime, Monday, November 25, 2024 2:03 PM (nineteen minutes ago)bookmarkflaglink

prob worth considering, if you're the angels, that pretty much every pitcher on the above list has underperformed what i think their teams expected of them. or, at the very least, none of them are providing any sort of excess value on their contracts. these seem like steady high floor low ceiling deals, except the floor can actually be pretty low too, and the ceilings are definitely low based on how these guys have pitched over the last few seasons. overall prob not a great way to spend money but you can see why teams w/ holes in their rotations are still suckered into these deals. chris bassitt has given the blue jays 2.5 and 2.2 WAR the last two seasons... i think that steadiness matters? the team would prob defend it. but he is basically an above average innings eater, in my eyes. blue jays fans feel free to chime in on how that deal feels because it's prob the "success story" of this list

snell to the dodgers

five years, $182m

btw has anyone ever played for all five (for now) california teams?

Dodgers keep stockpiling starting pitchers but never seem to have a rotation come October.

Rickey scored 4/5 (all but the Giants).

I kinda feel a little bad

you should

what the dodgers are doing is bad and dodgers fans should feel bad

Okay now I feel better

$52m signing bonus + $60mil deferred.

I'm not sure I get the logic behind the Snell deal. In 2023, he won the Cy Young, became a FA, and couldn't get signed because teams weren't buying into his long term health and effectiveness.

This year, he had a horrible first month, got injured, but came back and finished strong. Now his long term health and effectiveness isn't a worry? He pitched 100 innings this year.

Is this the going rate for a pitcher with upside now? Or does "LOLDodgers have money to spend" explain everything? deGrom's deal with the Rangers (which was ridiculed at the time) is looking better by the day.

Roman Anthony gets on his horse (gyac)
Posted: 31 July 2024 at 10:53:04
I’m not surprised if Farhan is gone at the end of the year.

^ me after the Giants didn’t move Snell at the deadline last year & get a haul for him. They took him on with the QO as well! Fucking idiots could have profited, that team was nowhere near the playoffs.

Or does "LOLDodgers have money to spend" explain everything?

This is also washed Verlander erasure, sorry

deferrals are interesting because they are slowly losing value - that is, interest rates are slowly going back down which means the present day cap hits are slowly going up. although tbf we're probably not going back to a ZIRP environment barring another COVID event but deferrals probably have more value this offseason than they will in the 2025-26 offseason

altho hmm i guess the huge signing bonus didn't really lower the CBT value that much

For CBT purposes, 20% of Snell's signing bonus count toward each year of the deal, so it doesn't impact the average annual value. The key is how much money (bonus & salary) is deferred, though @FabianArdaya reports that the Dodgers' CBT figure is expected to be $32-33M per year.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 27, 2024

buy Blake snell now, pay later in 10 easy installment with afterpay. your current afterpay balance is 962 million dollars, with a due date over a decade away.

Fuck baseball

Dodgers might as well sign Soto too.

Beat LA

i'd be interested in reading more about the dodgers org or rather successful baseball orgs in general, like the braves, astros. seems like dodgers spend not just on the payroll but also on their support staff as well

― 龜, Thursday, October 31, 2024 9:31 AM bookmarkflaglink

Meant to post about this. The 20% Dodgers owner "Sweeney" Todd Boehly, who always seems like he has his fingers in many, er, pies.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maneetahuja/2024/04/01/meet-the-billionaire-bond-investor-behind-chelsea-fc-springsteens-songbook-and-the-la-dodgers/

the hamilton cardinals (of the intercounty baseball league) have signed fernando rodney

If he sticks around, I may try to see him in London or Guelph.

oh this will be worth heading to Christie Pits!

Love a pitcher who refuses to quit. See also: Rich Hill wants to play the bigs still and apparently pitched stellar for the USA Olympic team this month. Don't quiz me on the relative level of Olympic team hitters

Meant to post about this. The 20% Dodgers owner "Sweeney" Todd Boehly, who always seems like he has his fingers in many, er, pies.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/maneetahuja/2024/04/01/meet-the-billionaire-bond-investor-behind-chelsea-fc-springsteens-songbook-and-the-la-dodgers/

― felicity, Wednesday, November 27, 2024 3:23 PM (two days ago)

lol at all the quotes from convicted felon michael milken

Tommy "Two Bags" Edman signs a 74mil 5 year contract extension w/ the Los Angeles Deferrals. 6th year club option

Huh.

A "thank you for winning us the world series" gift

tommy edman rules

he's worth more than that

he's waaaaaay above average at shortstop, center field, and second base, plenty of speed as well. when he manages to bat at a league average level, he's a 4+ WAR player. on the dodgers, he'll probably be the perfect utility player

I agree with tbd. That's a bargain

lol at all the quotes from convicted felon michael milken

― 龜, Friday, November 29, 2024 6:40 AM bookmarkflaglink

lol Trump pardonee and future cabinet member Michael Milken

32yo at-best-league-average RHP frankie montas to the mets for two years, $34m

i used to blame my (lefty) dad for not making me hit left-handed, but instead he should have taught me to eat innings

haha i had blocked from my memory that trump had pardoned him xp

the higster to texas for two years, $13.5m

good for him

Yeah I’m out on this offseason for these losers between this and Casas

Left-handed reliever Aroldis Chapman and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a one-year, $10.75 million contract, pending physical, sources tell ESPN. Boston sought left-handed help for its bullpen and lands the 36-year-old Chapman. @ChrisCotillo said deal was progressing.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 3, 2024

^ horrendous signing.

to really drive the depression home, here's an article about how the Dodgers are everything that's right about baseball:

https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2024-12-04/dodgers-blake-snell-build-contenders

You didnt say it was plaschke flagged post

Xp thanks for sharing

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/is-alec-bohm-the-answer-for-the-mariners-at-third-base/

seattle seems like a pretty chill environment to play in, good for bohm maybe

I do not much care for Bohm the player. Seattle has pitching but I think they ask for a pitcher back in return cos they’re one injury away from chasing the market like everyone else and they’re not spending.

Anyway, John Fisher found his wallet.

BREAKING: Right-hander Luis Severino and the A’s are in agreement on a three-year, $67 million contract, sources tell ESPN. It is the largest guarantee in the history of the A’s franchise. And even with the qualifying offer attached, Severino got well over market expectations.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 5, 2024

Passan says the A’s are going to spend more this offseason. For context:

Free agents have been loath to sign with the A's, who will play in a minor league stadium in Sacramento for the next three seasons before a planned move to Las Vegas. By stretching themselves financially -- their previous high deal was a six-year, $66 million extension for Eric Chavez in 2004, and their biggest free agent outlay was three years and $30 million for Billy Butler -- the A's convinced Severino to anchor their rotation.

wow i thought sevy’s whole deal was he “likes living in new york city”

Bohm is a guy who doesn't really impress me (much?), his similarity scores are guys like Mike Blowers and Lonnie Chisenhall, i.e. not a crew of Mr Excitements. I figure his ceiling might be a Kelly Gruber type but who knows.

i read the Phillies were asking for Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in exchange for Bohm...that would potentially be a bit like if the Orioles gave up Mike Mussina in the mid '90s for Jeff Blauser or something imo.

He’s kind of a bloop merchant, right? He was a third overall pick so I assume they want to get something for him. Honestly don’t think Mariners would trade Kirby or Gilbert for almost anyone until their last years of control.

bloop merchant otm, and he strikes me as someone who is near enough to replacement level that i don't know why you'd bother giving up useful assets for him. you could find a similar bloop merchant who doesn't have the same flashy resume for a lot cheaper.

Case in point: the Royals are also in on Bohm (they have their own bloop merchant in Maikel Garcia).

I think you should try to get bloop merchant into the lexicon as a replacement for banjo hitter.

Players who are really good bloop merchants, like Arráez or Ichiro, they're the Bloop Merchants of Venice.

I didn’t invent the term “bloop merchant” but I love it all the same. Ichiro & Tony Gwynn obviously the kings of the tendency

Personally, I put Gwynn/Carew/Boggs slightly ahead of Ichiro--they're the Bloop Merchants of the Galaxy, I guess.

Getting back to the guy who started this, Bohm might have a little too much power to fit the bill--16 HR/162 games--but he definitely looks like a dubious investment. His career OPS+ is 107, and not a great fielder. He's 28. Basically, he had a great couple of months in 2024.

he's very much in the Shea Hillenbrand mold imo, the most superficially impressive profile based on a bit of pop which masks the tendency to bloop, a guy who might beef up into a Francoeur type if the wind blows out a few extra times during the season, but otherwise will be a net zero.

rob thompson randomly benching bohm in the nlds because of his 'attitude' can't help bohm's trade value either

We discussed this back in the Luis Arraez thread but there’s great value in a bloop merchant in your lineup if you know how to use them. I think the contract hitting profile actually would work well in Seattle because there’s plenty of places to drop in hits and the lineup is not good.

On the subject of unloved bloop merchants who’d benefit from a change of scene, I really like Yoshida but his trade value is basically zero because they perma DHed him (do not do this with a bloop merchant) and it’s a shame cos he’s a guy I could easily see hitting .300 but his 2024 was toast due to a labrum injury and then his thumb or something. Now he would work well in Seattle, would be so cool to see him blossom with Ichiro.

Right-hander Clay Holmes and the New York Mets are in agreement on a three-year, $38 million contract with an opt-out after the second year, sources confirmed to ESPN's Jeff Passan.

The Mets plan to turn Holmes, who has spent his big league career as a reliever, into a starter. He has not started a game since his rookie season in 2018.

mets better get soto, because i don't think these half-assed pitcher signings are going to age too well

what tf are they doin

has this ever worked? (smoltz doesn't count, obviously)

Historical footnote (and good power bat; 24 HR/162 AB) Danny Jansen headed to Tampa.

https://www.mlb.com/news/danny-jansen-deal-with-rays

if he doesn't work out as a starter they'll send him back to the bullpen, where the mets are in need of quality arms anyway

oh i'm sure

nevertheless, a super-rich club claiming that its rotation will feature both frankie montas and clay holmes is weird as hell

mets fanbase copium is that stearns' philosophy is to not overspend on pitchers, he's great at picking rusted parts off the scrap heap and rehabbing them into solid starters

but then i look at how we ran out of pitching against the dodgers and also how the padres were able to bring out cease, king, darvish against the dodgers

can't help but wonder if we'll ever have more than 1 ace on the staff

:(

or, i guess, to put it more broadly - stearns showed last year that he's pretty good at making cheap acquisitions with high upside, which was effective when working with the budget of a smaller market team like the brewers

can he spend steve cohen's pocketbook? it may pull against every fiber of his being to do so

are they simply saving their dry powder until the soto sweepstakes are concluded?

has this ever worked? (smoltz doesn't count, obviously)

― mookieproof

The one most similar case to at least Smoltz I can think of is Ryan Dempster, who was a pretty mediocre starter, then went to the Cubs and became a fairly average reliever, then was converted back to a starter and became shockingly very good.

But for this case, maybe CJ Wilson? Was a reliever for a few years entering MLB, then Texas turned him into the poor man’s Barry Zito (Oakland era).

I think Charlie Hough was a reliever for the first 1/3 of his career before become a SP.

There were several relievers who started last year with varying degrees of success:

Jordan Hicks (Giants)
Garrett Crochet (White Sox)
Reynaldo Lopez (Braves)

Plus Seth Lugo was a starter for the second season last year (?)

No-hitter Michael Lorenzen. Previously a two-way reliever/hitter

Really love a elites athlete who can't decide what he wants to do. Very relatable for us regular folk

Willy Adames to the Giants. It was reported earlier in the week that Matt Chapman said he’d play short on a temporary basis if they signed Ha-seong Kim because he’s injured. Makes a lot of sense and that side of the infield is very nice looking indeed now.

BREAKING: Shortstop Willy Adames and the San Francisco Giants are in agreement on a seven-year, $182 million contract, the largest deal in franchise history, sources tell ESPN. Adames, 29, had a career-best 32 home runs and 112 RBIs in 2024. The deal is pending a physical.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 7, 2024

Willy Adames to Giants. $182M, 7 years. Previous high for SF player was current team baseball president Buster Posey’s $167M deal.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 7, 2024

michael king is the latest successful reliever to starter conversion, but he was a swingman/long reliever and started his career as a starter before unlocking his stuff as a two-inning fireman. holmes has never been more than a 1-inning guy and his stuff is not elite. weird decision

It is but otoh he’s kind of a groundball type guy right? Pitch mix never seemed right for a closer

oh ya, duh; king!

and Tyler O'Neill is an O; for three years, $49.5M.
that gives them an OF of O'Neill, Mullins, Cowser, and - presumably - Heston Kjerstad. what a stacked lineup

Honestly not really sure he’s an upgrade on Santander.

not an upgrade whatsoever. but vastly cheaper, presumably

Unofficial poll: will Soto's contract be larger than Ohtani's, y/n?

All the rumours point to yes.

Yes if he signs for anyone but the dodgers. Friedman probably trying to pull some incredulous 425mil/7year deal with opt-outs and 2/3rds deferred payments or something

So perhaps Soto to the Mets means Alonso to the Yanks. Because the Yankees need a second hitter now.

Go on, hit em while they're down

BlaQ Trienen, 2 year 22mil Dodgers

xp i think yankees are looking at bellinger more closely

yankees are gonna sign alonso who's gonna provide 0 protection to judge haha

Why do you say that? (The zero protection)

cause petes not a very good hitter!

My man I see so many Red Sox fans wanting him (I’m not disputing that most of those people are morons). I feel like nobody values Alonso like the Mets

maybe he takes a hometown discount to be part of the Soto Lindor era for at least 5 years

I think they could get creative with his contract if they wanted to do a signing bonus (he’s from Florida & same would apply as the Snell signing bonus)

They could also give him an early opt out so that he could have another try at free agency if he had a monster year.

wowwwww at the mariners getting the #3 pick

(nats get #1, angels get #2)

lol

The A's didn't give pitcher Luis Severino a club record $67 million contract solely because they want to impress the fans in their new locale, Sacramento. The A's need to add significant payroll this winter or else they risk a grievance from the Major League Baseball Players Association — and they have to spend perhaps another $25 million or more on next year's roster before they're in the clear.

Baseball's collective bargaining agreement requires teams to carry a payroll more than 1 1/2 times the amount they receive from local revenue sharing. A club in violation doesn't automatically receive punishment, but puts itself at greater risk of penalty if the union brings a grievance.

also, fuck this pissbaby and his simpsons-teenager voice

https://i.imgur.com/2ZQSsRX.jpeg

Sources: LHP Max Fried, Yankees reach 8-year, $218M deal

I'm not convinced Fried is a durable pitcher, so as a Yanks hater I'm loving that one.

Love fried, good season for FAs. I am not sure anyone is durable.

seeing that eovaldi has re-signed with the rangers

"Babe Ruth was one of the greatest hitters ever, and he never made more than $80K in a season! That's only $1.8 M in today's dollars! Where is the justice???"

Holy fuck

White Sox acquiring Garrett Crochet from Red Sox for catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth and right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez, sources tell @TheAthletic. First: @byJulianMack

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 11, 2024

"he is a boston red sox," per passan

i don't get availability concerns with fried, he has no history with serious arm injuries and is not a flamethrower

as a consistent investor in max fried in fantasy baseball i can say that his arm has barked a few times in the last few seasons requiring short DL stints, so i don't think there's nothing there. but at the end of the day he's a pitcher so...

sorta interesting to see the red sox and yankees invest so much in pitching in a division that typically really hits the crap out of the baseball, but the only team in the AL east that looks to have a formidable offense is baltimore, perhaps toronto if they make some big splash here soon. both yankees & red sox rotations are looking pretty good, boston less starry but if they get a decent giolito year they have some good depth w/ the younger guys behind them

Orioles better hope that Adley Rutschman remembers to hit the ball I guess because that lineup is going to miss Santander.

That’s a great haul for the White Sox btw, Braden Montgomery prob the highest ceiling. 5 tool switch hitting college baseball stud who fell in the draft cos he broke an ankle diving across home plate in a college game, iirc?

orioles probably think if two of coby mayo, jackson holliday, or heston kjerstad show positive results from their patented development machine, they can weather a santander loss

as a consistent investor in max fried in fantasy baseball i can say that his arm has barked a few times in the last few seasons requiring short DL stints, so i don't think there's nothing there. but at the end of the day he's a pitcher so...

― slob wizard (J0rdan S.), Wednesday, December 11, 2024 3:08 PM (one hour ago) bookmarkflaglink

yeah i saw he has a persistent blister problem, which is annoying. but he's really only had the one forearm strain. which is one more than ideal, sure, but he seems to be a fairly reliable innings eater

Iirc the Fried forearm thing that cropped up was a nerve issue and not structural ie not related to his elbow

Santander is coming off a career year; Before 2024 he had a respectable career 109 OPS+ (113 as a full time player). assuming he's going to return closer to his norm in 2025, i feel like that is well replaced in the outfield by O'Neill and Kjerstad coming into his own and also in the lineup by Mayo (if he pans out) and hopefully Holliday improving.

xpost

I thought Kjerstad got inconsistent playing time and the O’Neill trade probably doesn’t help that?

i was surprised they didn't play him more, but i'd imagine there will be more opportunity for him to prove himself in '25 - since '24 was his debut. i think they can justify giving him more at bats at the cost of Cowser, O'Neil and Ohearn more than they could Santander.

one of those guys is likely gonna get traded

Yeah I think so too, not enough spots for them all to play everyday

mlb emailed me to say kyle tucker to the cubbies

i guess the yanks can just sign him next year.

or get outbid by the mets again

not really sure what is the point of the cubs getting tucker for one year. i like tucker but it seems unlikely he'll push the team above the brewers this year. otoh i don't know anything about cam smith but paredes + wesneski aren't a huge loss despite both being solid.

sounds like they'll probably also trade bellinger or suzuki, i'd rather they get rid of bellinger personally

Yeah I’m not sure what the Cubs are doing apart from probably sending Bellinger to NYY

it'd be helpful to have Bellinger in the lineup with Judge, for a more close proximity comparison to finally settle once and for all the debate of which player is better.

st. louis used to have that thing where they'd trade for someone who would then become so entranced by the Cardinal Way and the BFIB that they'd sign an extension, but i don't think that's replicable these days

bellinger seems like a good fit for NYY; their lineup is awfully right-handed with soto gone

bellinger is not great imo, but basically any lefty bat is worth trying at yankee stadium and he is still a good enough cf to move judge back to right, where he belongs

hearing that the o’s have signed an ace from the giants…

tee hee

Bellinger to the yanks

;_;

That's a sad face:(

i'm good with it, the cubs were paying way too much for bellinger given how streaky he is and this probably means the very fun PCA gets more playing time

Cashman on Belli:

https://i.imgur.com/rQRt3QV.png

vaya con dios Cody, you were fun to have for a bit. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he manages to have some kind of Paul O'Neill type career w/the Yanks, but i'd also not be surprised to see him just stick at his current level (he *was* playing a bit above the metrics in 2023.) w/PCA and Tucker and Suzuki and Happ it's a crowded field already,

so what's going on with the blue jays? they've been linked to nearly every one of these big moves. always the bridesmaid never the bride?

Busy not extending their marquee player.

Also strategizing about where to schedule next season's Loonie Dog Tuesdays.

christian walker to stros

a little less sure now that pete will re-sign with the mets :(

Where else would he go?

Jankees?

yea the yankees :(

Feel like he’s too rich for their blood considering they’re talking to Goldie & Carlos Santana & Rizzo

too rich? for the yankees?!

The Jays have emerged victorious in the hotly contested Josh Walker sweepstakes.

i wish i knew who that was or cared

I had to look him up. Don't.

goldy to the bronx, 1yr/$12m

Precipitous two-year decline--OPS+ from 177 to 120 to 98--but maybe in line for a good platoon year?

Not confused with Freddie Freeman anymore. (But still HOF-bound.)

Sean Manaea, 75mil, 3yrs, Mets

That's a lot of money and I am always wary of signing 30+ pitchers to multi-year deals based on them supposedly figuring something out, but the starting pitching market is crazy and he fit well with the team. Presumably it will not inhibit Mets ability to do something else if things don't work out.

the starting pitching market is crazy

it really is

Walker Buehler to Red Sox

at the QO offer threshold exactly, although it looks like the dodgers didn't extend a QO to beuhler

Cutch back to Pirates

Burnes must be a Jay surely? I can’t see SF matching their price.

happy for cutch but giving 500 PAs to a 38yo DH with a 105 wRC+ is not something a team with any aspirations to win would do. but i guess we've always known that!

also

Molly Knight

For people wondering why the Dodgers are dragging their feet signing Teoscar Hernández.. They’re in the luxury tax bracket where they pay 110% tax on any signing from here on out. The Red Sox just signed Walker Buehler for 1-yr $21M. That same contract would have been 1-yr, $44.2M for the Dodgers.

nb they can absolutely still afford that, and as half the luxury tax penalty goes to revenue sharing that poor teams' owners will simply pocket, much of the league is rooting for them

Them plucky Dodgers getting robbed by the big business A's.

Goodbye Buehler :,(

gleyber day in detroit

dave kaval resigning from the a's... gotta be the second most hated a's official of all time

Teoscar back to Dodgers

I don’t think he would have fixed Torontos problems, but it would have been nice to have him back

Thats gotta be a "i want to play for you/i dont want to move/ i want to run it back" discount right?

Wow, Teoscar left tens of millions on the table. He's 31, but has been consistently very good for years. He couldn't have gotten a 5-6 year deal somewhere?

Corbin Burnes to Arizona!

I don’t think anyone expected Teo to get 5-6 years. He was very good last year, average the year before, and good-but-that-glove-is-awful before that.
He was a free agent last year too and could only manage a 1 year deal.

Maybe it's not just Shapiro and Atkins who keep people away.

https://www.si.com/mlb/why-corbin-burnes-signed-diamondbacks-contract-less-money

Yeah it was the taxes and the fact he lives there and just had two babies. AL talent train is wild btw

gleyber had his issues but the yankees are absolutely going to miss him. he got on base as there lead off hit in something like 90% of playoff games and is two years removed from a 3.5 win season at an up the middle position.

it seems like they’re gonna shift jazz to second and then put (…) at 3rd

*their leadoff hitter, really need to double check my phone posts

I don’t think anyone expected Teo to get 5-6 years. He was very good last year, average the year before, and good-but-that-glove-is-awful before that.

Christian Walker is two years older and got more money from the Astros. Offensively they are similar, although Walker is the better defender (from what I read about the deal -- I haven't seen him play enough).

The FA market for hitters is weak this offseason, I think there was more money to be made.

Teams don’t want to sign older guys to longer term deals. There’s plenty of statistical info backing up that performance can fall off a cliff after 30. Teo, Justin Turner, Christian Walker, Freddie Freeman - they are the obvious exceptions, but age still comes for any player and I would guess that teams are terrified of being left with an expensive player they can’t move if they show up to spring training and their bat speed has fallen off a cliff.

A lot of players have signed long terms deals at 30-31 recently. Bregman is 30 and is looking for a long term deal now. I'm not saying that Walker or Teoscar are superstars but there aren't a lot of premium offensive players available in FA. That's why when a great player does hit the market (Ohtani, Soto), the market goes nuts. But it seems like teams just don't want to shell out serious coin unless it's a superstar level player ... but then again, how many so-so pitchers have gotten multi-year deals this offseason. IDGI, really.

if the only real tool is the hit tool, that’s a problem for guys over 30. pitchers are so good now that just the tiniest falloff in bat speed, reaction time etc is the difference between genuinely great and mediocre. now, if you can walk, steal, field… all those things can mitigate somewhat

>Christian Walker is two years older and got more money from the Astros.

Teo got more money. $66MM vs $60MM... tho a chuck is deferred, there was another large amount up front.
in terms of value – Walker was worth an avg of 0.7 wins per season more over the last 3 years; the difference coming from defence, as Teo is a slightly better hitter. if that holds steady, the Astros will have gotten two extra wins for a few million less!

You're right Thermo, thanks for the fact check.

I get what you guys are saying about aging patterns and multi-tool players ... still though, last year at this time, no team wanted to sign Matt Chapman and none of those arguments seemed to apply. The risk factors for these 30-year old 30 HR, low-BA, poor fielding hitters are real, but so are the risks of signing 30-year old starting pitchers, but the market for them is exploding. It's weird. Let's see what Santander and Alonso end up signing for.

Matt Chapman was coming off a down year offensively and signed a pilot contract, it helps that his floor is high due to his glove. If he hadn’t extended this year he’d be getting some very lucrative offers right now.

Pitching is always at a premium. It’s a completely different market.

Pillow not pilot

The pitching market is different ... except when it's not, such as last year when nobody wanted to sign Snell (reigning Cy Young winner), Montgomery, Stroman, etc. I just don't see any real pattern to it. Maybe there isn't a pattern (i.e. logical market forces at work), sometimes it's as simple as one team making a point of closing a deal early in the offseason, and that tips over the dominoes, sets the market, and forces other teams into making moves they might not have otherwise made.

Ok

looks like alonso/boras are at $200M but the mets are at $90m?

and now the giants might be interested since they missed out on burnes?

:/

Maybe they could compromise at $158M?

from calcaterra on the burnes signing:

As were tax rates, though that's often a lot more complicated than the non-accountants among us try to make it out to be given that players pay taxes in every state in which they appear. As an NL West player Burnes will still be spending a lot of time in California ballparks, after all.

i had no idea! also this is insane and i wonder how it gets tabulated! game days? can't be actual game appearances, right??

the yankees open at home vs milwaukee this year with the standard thursday-saturday-sunday series; does everyone get charged state taxes for three days or four? iirc players aren't paid for spring training; does that mean they pay no state taxes in the grapefruit/cactus leagues? (tbf florida and arizona may not actually have state income taxes -- not sure)

does this also hold true for minor leaguers? because hiring an accountant to figure this stuff out would hit a little harder on a minor-league salary

I believe it would be true for minor leaguers as well. This is based on state tax rules involving the employees' nexus to each state, not anything to do with MLB. For instance, I believe touring musicians have to pay taxes to each state in which they hold a concert. Not sure of the trigger for players; I would presume it is being on the roster for the game rather than an actual appearance, but I have no direct knowledge.

I'm not going to say it is cheap or not complicated, but any reasonably experienced accounting firm can figure this out for maybe a couple of thousand dollars. I would assume the clubs have an obligation to provide the players with the tax reporting documents that the players need showing their income by state.

yeah i work in various places in the tri-state area and get tax info for each state i work in

ballplayers out there having to buy access to a dozen extra states in turbotax

whither sarahell?

if you’re an amateur tax nerd like me i think this is interesting: https://www.jacksonhewitt.com/tax-help/jh-tax-talk/do-baseball-players-pay-state-taxes/

trivia, what is the longest streak of 1-year contracts since the modern era of baseball?

answer, i don't know, but joc pederson just signed his fifth straight one-year deal, to remain with the rangers

17 states, d.c. and toronto…

81 games played at home…

https://arizonasports.com/story/3568822/corbin-burnes-contract-details/

The deal includes a $10 million signing bonus, has significant deferred money and an opt-out after the first two years, according to Arizona Sports’ John Gambadoro.

Gambadoro reported Burnes will make $20 million per year over the first two seasons of the deal before the opt-out.

so, arizona has a flat state income tax rate of 2.5% while california, like the federal code, has a progressive state tax income rate. every dollar above $721,315 is taxed at 12.3% per nerdwallet... let's not get into what the blended tax rate on the first $721,315 is, i'm just gonna assume it's also taxed at 12.3%.

right off the bat burnes is saving $980,000 in taxes on the $10M signing bonus over signing with the giants because of the difference in tax rates (again, ignoring how the first $721,315 would be taxed in california)

how much will he save on the season?

according to baseball tax experts jackson hewitt:

While a baseball player has an annual or multi-year contract, his salary is actually calculated by each game he plays. This helps in tracking his income by state.

and also:

The jock tax
A baseball player pays income taxes not only in the state where he lives but in every state where he plays. But, since he doesn’t pay taxes twice on the same money, he’ll file a non-resident return for all those states and claim a credit from each state, to reduce the amount he owes to the state where he lives. This so-called “jock tax” has been around since the 1960s and, as you might guess, has never been very popular with players.

so that means 81 games on the road, 81 games at home. if burnes is making $20M per year for his first two years, then that means $10M on the road, $10M on home. that $10M at home, he's saving $980,000 a year on per our calculation above. so over two years he's saving a little under $2 million.

what i want to know more about is (i) what happens when a player hits the IL, (ii) what happens when a player is sent to the minors and (iii) how this works out for pitchers, who play in every 5th or 6th game, not every game.

sooo... if a player only plays in 100 games a season, then is his annual salary calculated on a 100 game basis? or still 162 games? and how does time spent in the minors count against that? and are pitchers annual salaries divided by the number of games actually pitched, or are they also taxed on a 162 game basis? if the former, could a pitcher strategically organize his pitching schedule to avoid pitching in states with high tax rates like california or new york?

this is also very interesting:

No credits
If a player lives in one of the nine states without income taxes (Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming), they won’t get a credit for taxes paid to another state because there aren’t any income taxes in his home state.

if arizona allows unlimited credits for taxes paid to other states, then it could be the case that the amount of taxes he pays in the other 16 states + DC + toronto is more than what he needs to pay under arizona and he gets credited for that in his arizona state tax return. if so, credit burnes another $250k a year for being an arizona resident...

look at that paystub:

https://images.deadspin.com/tr:w-900/1263616356002227236.jpg

his salary is actually calculated by each game he plays

this *does* mean 'on the roster' right? like, they're not dividing up burnes's 32 starts by location?

season meal money: $870

cutch, i'm no athletic trainer, but you need more carbs

you need at least $1500 worth of carbs

Hyeseong Kim fucking signing with the fucking Dodgers

LA's got the biggest korean expat community in the US

reds acquire gavin lux

(charlie morton to baltimore)

Bye Gav <3 another one of my favourite players for aesthetic reasons: his swing looks like it will give you a 0wrc+, the follow through makes it look like he gave up before the bat was even at the ball but then it produces a home run. He had a very unfortunate injury at a terrible time for him, really hope he does well with the reds,

i am sadly ageing out of these takes but he was on a truly legendary heater with triple-a OKC in 2019: .392/.478/.719 in 49 games. felt like every night he was doing something crazy

Reds infield panic in spite of their deep logjam is v intrsting 2 me...

probably better than a reds infield panik

Buster Posey literally signing Verlander who had three years service time before Posey was even drafted 🆗

Buster Posey vs. Justin Verlander
Regular Season: 3 PA , .500/.333/1.000, 0 HR, 0 K
Playoffs: 2 PA , .500/.500/.500, 0 HR, 1 K

As the guy who was on here as recently as a year ago saying I thought he was still a decent longshot for 300 wins--as long as he was still pitching well, which he was--well, he disabused me of that notion last season. This seems like a very iffy signing, although I assume he'll cost next to nothing (and maybe other teams are mostly footing the bill).

I had forgotten he was a FA, I don't think I heard his name once this offseason. Looks like a can't lose deal for the Giants both on the field and at the box office, there aren't many bad one year deals, he's a HOFer, he'll be playing in a pitcher's park, he hasn't played for an NL team except for that cup of coffee with the Mets.

I was also down on the Sale signing last year, so my track record on aging starters isn't great.

As I've said many times, I have no idea how to gauge these deals:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-vladimir-guerrero-jr-avoid-arbitration-with-one-year-28-5m-deal/

So it drags out for another year. I've been all over the place, so anything I say will contradict some other thing I said three or six or 15 months ago. Right now, I guess I hope a) he has a phenomenal year, and then b) says "Fuck you, you could have signed me three years ago" and then some other team pays him four or five hundred million. I'd be okay with that.

I have idea how to gauge it either, because in these situations any normal team would either trade him or sign him to extension. I guess the Jays feel good about themselves that they're hedging their bets and keeping their options open. At the same time they might think they're doing great things for players by avoiding arbitration and paying out record high one year deals.

None of this masks the fact that they have no real strategy for winning next year or in the long term. I haven't the slightest clue what their plan is.

What are the ripple effects of this (Bo, etc.)? Are they still trying to add Arenado or Alonso or somebody?

It was reported the Jays are going to offer Vlad a new extension offer much closer to his asking price after the arb number was reached

i think it's understood Bo wants to test free agency, so Vlad is their only hope. their "plan" for next year feel a lot how they approached things when they took the team over and it was obvious Bautista was gassed and their rotation was not up to the job... pretend they still have a competitive team and then fire sale any asset that has any value when the fans get fed up. tho they did do a solid job getting some promising young guys with last season' mini sell off.
that said, i think they still could have a shot at a wild card spot, they just need a bat to give Vlad some support. as nice a pick-up as Gimenez was, they've been overly focused on defence/run-prevention. a bat, hope someone like Clase, Loperfido, Barger, Orelvis or Roden step up and pray the bullpen can keep their shit together. i'm not entirely gloomy about their '25 season.

xpost: after last off seasons debacle, i am not going to put much faith in any reporting (i honestly really came away fucking hating most baseball journos who aren't Jeff Passan)

With regards to Verlander vs Sale as a signing, I certainly did not think the latter would do what he did in 2024 but while his stats in 2023 were superficially less than completely impressive, he put together a lot of really dominant performances with a ton of Ks, and I think his overall line was a bit corrupted by his really rough early season struggles. Verlander this past season simply was a disaster down the stretch and unlike Sale it seemed pretty clear from his statistical line that his skill set has abandoned him.

Jays finally found someone to take their money, and also closed the loop on the Tulo trade; signing Jeff Hoffman