The inability to strike a deal is the latest blow for the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43902038/vladimir-guerrero-jr-blue-jays-fail-reach-contract-extension

Guerrero, a four-time All-Star and son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, said he had set a deadline of 9 p.m. Monday, but the last call from the Blue Jays came at 10:30 p.m. When asked if the team was close to what he was asking, Guerrero simply said, "No."

They could have signed him to a Tatis Jr.-like extension years ago. After striking out on the big-time free agents like Soto and Ohtani, they come crawling back to Vladdy with a lowball offer in his walk year. Well played, Jays front office!!

I don’t really know if that’s true, he doesn’t need the money and he wouldn’t have signed coming off a down season. If he turned down the guts of half a billion, what are you going to do? He’s very very good but he’s a first baseman and we just saw the market laugh at Pete Alonso for asking for a much smaller sum of money - and Pete is older but he’s also a power hitter in a defensively unimportant role.

You can dissect things and engage in both sides-isms, but the big picture is this: they signed him at age 16 and spent years grooming him to be the cornerstone of the franchise, and they're not even *remotely close* to signing him.

I might amend that verb choice there lmao

Haha point taken

Where are you seeing this was a low ball offer?

@KeeganMatheson
Mark Shapiro on the #BlueJays’ negotiations with Vladimir Guerrero Jr:
“We were emotional. We did value the player deeply, and even went past our value because we cared so deeply about him and wanted to have him here.”

what an off-putting statement

Lol i’d tell the first journo i could find that i want a trade if i heard that

“We have tenses in spanish dawg…”

I'm assuming it was a low ball offer due to the reactions of the two sides. It's clear they're nowhere close to an agreement.

i'm not a fan of this front office, but i'm not ready to put the blame 100% on them just yet. ortiz was saying Vlad should be getting 3 years, $585m; which seems crazy to me (which obviously doesn't mean thats what vladdy was asking for, but if those are the numbers some people are putting in his ear, that's not good).

i do agree they had a long time to lock him and should have done so a long time ago. i would love it if he were to be a Jay for life – but he's also been frustrating to watch at times too (the base running errors especially). and sorry to both sides this, but i wouldn't be surprised at all if that was the case. i just can't see the FO, knowing their jobs are on the line, putting all that work into guys like Soto and Ohtani etc and then phoning in the Vlad negotiations.

If they couldn't (or wouldn't) sign him then they could have traded him like the Nationals did with Soto. Letting him walk for essentially nothing (we're not there yet, but it could happen) is indefensible and will lead to firings (although Atkins and Shapiro's contracts are nearly up too). I'm not saying it's an easy situation, but these are franchise-altering decisions and it's up to the FO to make them. What's their plan? I haven't a clue.

I also think it's disingenuous of the FO to not sign him when he was underachieving (because it was too risky) and to not sign him once he breaks out again (because he's asking for too much money). There's always risk involved, you can't play "wait and see" forever. And if you don't want to take the risk, you trade him and move the club in a different direction.

Feels like given the money they spent they should see how the season plays out.

especially with our anemic minor league system... if Vlad and Bo are gone, we have an expensive pitching staff / outfield and not much to fill the shoes in 2026. they got some decent fliers at least years trade deadline, but them and guys like Barger, Orelvis and Roden aren't going to be enough.

xpost

i mean - who's to say Vlad was open to discussing an extension after his off years tho

3 years, $585m; which seems crazy to me

i assume you/they meant 13 years? that's obviously a ton of money, especially considering his body type and defensive limitations, but $45m/yr doesn't seem beyond the pale in this day and age

“ There's always risk involved, you can't play "wait and see" forever. And if you don't want to take the risk, you trade him and move the club in a different direction.”

Skywrite this over camden yards

Rogers can definitely afford that money without blinking but I don’t really get why they spent all those…loonies…? on the stadium and not the marquee star to poster it with.

ya 13 years. but paying a guy that much until he's 38 – an inconsistently decent-to-great hitter who routinely makes me cringe at horrible base-running blunders. even with rogers stupid money, i'm not making that commitment.

anyways, fun fact: i am very good friends with the guy who prints those posters! and yes, he has given me 6 foot vinyl banners, one of which hands from my deck (yes i am a giant dork)

the miguel cabrera deal got pretty ugly at the end, but i'd be surprised if many tigers fans regretted it. vlad's top similar batter through age 25 is eddie murray, and there just aren't too many guys like that around. picking up a few wins cheaply on the margins won't help if there's no foundation

(tbf, his no. 3 similar batter through age 25 is prince fielder, so yeah it's a risk!)

I'm still halfway. 1) Secretly happy that someone else is going to overpay him wildly for a couple of good-to-great seasons followed by a prolonged decline and all the frustration TT talks about; 2) embarrassed by how badly Shapiro and Atkins have handled everything--"it's disingenuous of the FO to not sign him when he was underachieving (because it was too risky) and to not sign him once he breaks out again (because he's asking for too much money)" is exactly right. I can throw up my hands and say I don't know what to do, but I'm not management.

Apparently offered Vlad half a billion dollars!

Are you sure? First thing my bowling friend told me tonight was he asked for that much.

Heyman is saying that was the offer. So grain of salt

You’re both right but the difference is deferrals vs present value - he wants present value and Jays offered deferrals

The inability to strike a deal is the latest blow for the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays.

Fucking hyped the Roden might crack the team!

He has cracked the team!

Had to look him up. That's some kind of spring, if you put any stock in that (did get him on the roster): .423/.556/.731.

He was taken 3rd overall but went very much under the radar for a while. but slashing .298/.407/.453/.860 over his minor league career, people started taking note some time in 2023

I watched some of his spring training highlights, he looked really good from what I saw. Quick, compact swing. Jays outfielders were awful on offense last year, Roden can only improve things.

Third HR for Giménez tonight.

Best cleanup hitter of our lifetime

I too was in first place three days ago (in the ILX fantasy league) and have fallen to sixth before blinking. So keeping the bandwagon at arm's length for a little longer.

Only the 10th game, but Toronto seems to be settling into something close to what they've been the past couple of years: weak offense (under four runs per game), relying on winning close games through pitching and defense. They're got a winning record and a negative run differential. This doesn't bode well. Their starters are good, but the '71 Orioles they're not; they look to have a better closer this year, but it's not enough.

Guess the thread needs a new name.
When I watched him weakly ground out to end the game today, somehow I knew. I knew this guy was about to get half a billion dollars.

Congrats to all.

bless

There you go. Good work from Shatkins.

The ability to strike a deal is the latest blow to those who want to complain about the Jays

lol Thermo. I'm definitely in that kinda headspace on this

lol thermo XD

The ability to strike a deal is the latest blow to those who want to complain about the Jays

Have you never heard Joe Walsh's "Life's Been Good"?

Was in Toronto today, so got two hours of Blair & Barker on the way home. Fans calling in, very excited. The best thing about it, I think, is what one of their guests said: you don't spend this much money unless you're ready to spend more money. So it's a big first step, but only--hopefully--a first step.

I wonder how long it is till there will be enough contenders to create a “worst contract out of these $500 million contracts” poll

Link may or may not work (Facebook): Jeff Blair from this afternoon's show.

https://www.facebook.com/watch?v=1313033066439396

(Kevin Barker unusually subdued--his schtick is usually unbearable.)

4-4 for Springer, now .455 with 8 RBI.

and tied for 2nd on the team in Home Runs! ;)

First place at 7-5!

Surprisingly solid pitching performance from Lucas today!

I admit to being morbidly fascinated in Davis Schneider's active 0/33(!)

what is this dude doing in the MLB? it's not the summer of '23 anymore

Bit of a mystery, isn't it?

Barger is ripping up AAA, the don’t need schnider for 2b, so I’d imagine he’s on borrowed time

I guess they feel they need a RH bat, with Wagner & Roden being lefties (and Barger also being a LHB). But this team conflates matchups with being good too much. Matchup doesn’t mean shit if the guy sucks.

He had a great spring from what I hear, so maybe they're basing hopes on that. i hope he gets going (quickly)

Ya. I like the guy and he had a hell of a first impression. My gf bought a t shirt of the mlb logo with schnider as the batter from his dad!

wow! haha, amazing. he's one of the most marketable players, even still

jesus the ump scorecard from yesterday is brutal. +2 runs for Boston. holy hell

ABS can’t get here soon enough

Bassitt for Cy, you heard it here first.

Two years ago, I posted more than once on how schizo he was. His by-decision split in 2023:

Wins -- 16 starts, 111.2 IP, 1.13 ERA
No Decision -- 9 starts, 48.2 IP, 4.62 ERA
Losses -- 8 starts, 39.2 IP, 9.30 ERA

That 8-run+ swing between wins and losses struck me as unusually dramatic at the time, and sure enough, last season it was only a 5-run swing (1.94-6.85). Not sure what the league-wide differential is.

You can look that up...last year, league-wide in the A.L., it was a 6.5-run swing between wins and losses:

Wins -- ~5100 IP, 1.63 ERA
Losses --4350 IP, 8.18 ERA

So Bassitt was extreme in 2023, but not as extreme as I thought.

But possibly extreme for an established starter.

Good point--that gap would be undoubtedly be narrower if you elimated spot starters, call-ups, and bullpen days.

First big league home run for Roden!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4vWPddJRH0

thoughts Jays fans? Anything symptomatic here?

Jomboy sounds as surprised as I am that he’s defending Vlad.
One thing that is a personal ax of mine to grind, is Vlad can be prone to baserunning mistakes and he really enjoys wasting video reviews to prove he is was very much out. So me, as a guy sitting at home on his couch, figured he was probably out - and I feel like Schnider was of a similar mind. JB summed it up well, Schnids saw Vlad start going, didn’t see his foot was still on the bag and was probably like “sure Vlad, sure.”

I also love that this is being called the “pyjama game”

i chalked it up to canadian politeness

Davis Schneider joins Munenori Kawasaki in the Hall of Improbable Jays You Will Never Forget. Maybe he'll be back, I don't know; if not, I suspect he won't be the last Schneider cut loose this year.

zzz

https://i.ibb.co/J1Qs8tn/q6wj50v9gbwe1.jpg

I got really put off by Saturday's game, the one where they went into extra innings. They had a runner on third with one out (after a perfect bunt), Bichette/Vlad/Santander coming up, and a chance to go 13-8. Bichette strikes out on a terrible pitch, they walk Guerrero, Santander makes out. I know Seattle had a ace closer in there, but it just seemed so typical of the Jays whenever they walk right up to the precipe of getting an actual streak going.

Jays should follow the A's & Rays lead and move back to a minor-league bandbox so they can relive that COVID-era glory imho.

That chart's perfect. Pretty sure you can find me somewhere around that time posting that I was tired of home runs, I wanted a pitching-and-defense team...Jesus.

Their hitting with risp has been terrible. Getting hard to watch.

Just looked it up...right in the middle for BA (15th), but way down the list for SLG (28th) and OBP (27th). Now and again, someone hits a single.

Down 3-0 tonight...not to panic (by which I mean, time to panic), I think they need to package together one of their front four starters, an everyday lineup filler (no idea who that would be), and a prospect (no idea who that would be) and get another bat into the lineup. The imminent return of Varsho is hardly anything to get excited about. They're anemic once again.

ostensibly that’s why we signed Santander

I suppose things would look less dire if he were doing something. Wait till Springer comes back down to Earth.

Knowing that Thermo and francis (and maybe NoTime) devote more time to actually watching the Jays than I do, it's not my place to say this, but I will anyway: sad.

in the nyt crossword today: dave STIEB

Wow! Question (I'm guessing) something to do with no-hitters lost on the last out?

Clue, I should say...can't think of any other earthly reason for him to be there. (I guess that's far too wordy for a clue, though.)

sadly not!

52D: Dave ___, seven-time All-Star pitcher for the Blue Jays

And you knew right away Lemanczyk didn't fit.

Vlad just hit a HR. Something I noticed when I looked up his (very good) career numbers in Yankee Stadium; he's even better in Camden Yards and Fenway. For the three parks combined:

602 PA, 41 doubles, 33 HR, .338/.404/.599. He probably would have done well to sign with one of those three teams.

53 pitches is a lot to get two outs

The inability to hit a round ball with a square bat is the latest, etc.

(Botched a well-known Pete Rose quote there: "It's a round ball and a round bat, and you got to hit it square." I kept thinking, "Square? How are bats square?")

(QuoteFancy) "The hardest thing to do in baseball is to hit a round baseball with a round bat, squarely.” — Quote by Ted Williams.

(Brainy Quote) Willie Stargell Quotes: "They give you a round bat and they throw you a round ball and they tell you to hit it square."

Maybe we'll put authorship on hold there.

this is why i've been getting back into soccer

Tell me more about this thing soccer.

https://www.mlb.com/news/daulton-varsho-falls-then-makes-behind-the-back-catch

This fucking team

I swear to god

Your post got me to check mlb.com, and those doubles got me to--wait for it--turn on the TV and watch. Glad I didn't invest more than those three minutes. (Seriously: I have posted many, many times about the Jays' complete inability to get something going and then keep it going. Sweeping Seattle and getting to .500 virtually guaranteed some kind of ugly loss tonight.)

Sweeping Seattle and getting to .500 virtually guaranteed some kind of ugly loss tonight.

I wanted to post something to this effect after the Seattle series, but didn't want to seem pessimistic.

I'd have a hard time describing it, and often wonder if I've gotten to where I'm just hypersensitive to something that's normal plexiglass/return-to-mean stuff. So it's good to hear that someone else notices too.

it's the Toronto team syndrome. very good at getting your hopes up, elite all-time great at brutally dashing those hopes

which, by the way, we may see more of tonight. also i will be at the jays game.

Well the jays came though for me today! Pretty empty, especially for a giveaway day, but really great/fun game. Springer even waved to me lol

Jays scaling the heights! All credit due--sweeping the Padres is something, especially after falling behind in extras today (when I switched off, of course).

First the 14-0 shutout, now coming back twice in extras to win. What's happening? I feel like they were energized by Varsho's return, he's been part of a lot of big moments.

I have no idea who #4-9 are and I'd like to think I'm pretty up on MLB teams/players.

Clase was a quasi prospect the Jays got from seattle last year for Garcia and Barger was one of the better hitting prospects in the jays (low bar) system. Barger has looked solid lately and was good to see Clase finally have himself a day (and put that speed to use)

this lineup is majority AAAA's most of the time. am i wrong?

Noooo… Kirk, Vlad, Gimminez (currently injured), Bo, Varsho, Springer & Santander… that’s just two lineup slots being filled by AAAA types.

of course not, i was speaking from my emotional mind there (reinforced by pre-varsho lineups/tony and andres having bad years)

1. SS Bo Bichette
2. 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
3. DH Daulton Varsho
4. 3B Addison Barger
5. 2B Ernie Clement
6. RF Nathan Lukes
7. LF Jonatan Clase
8. CF Myles Straw
9. C Tyler Heineman

but given my weakened constitution, you're throwing this at me? hahaha

i mean, they beat the pads with this lineup, and i'm not saying there's not real talent in there

Lukes, Straw & Heineman all AAAA/cast-off types that've been doing much better than expected so far to say the least.
Roden has absolutely been destroying AAA since getting demoted too.

Their performances have been great, no denying. I think my posts are more about how (unduly!) sure I am that the whole structure cannot maintain itself without better.. names, i guess.

Yimi hitting the IL now - not gonna be easy without him. they were kinda making implications of his overuse on the broadcast, but from what I can tell the bullpen seems to have been pretty evenly spread out.

Took all that momentum from the Padres series and exploded for two runs over three games in Tampa Bay.

The blue jays way.

Also, why is Brandon lowe so full of hate for the blue jays?!

not bad, managed 2/3 in Tampa 😎

Hope you can access this--kind of amazing from today's game:

https://www.facebook.com/reel/948327367287963

It would be churlish to complain about the Jays getting blown out at home tonight (by a really good team) when they're just coming off a four-game sweep, right? I shouldn't do that, right?

Especially if we still got treated to a Barger moon shot

Does he have a nickname yet? I vote for Sonny.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonny_Barger

Well, scanning that, maybe not.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen Kirk so excited! Weirdly emotional win beating our much beloved old closer

Part of me is of course caught up in the excitement of this latest tease, while the draggy skeptic looks at Bo's resurgence and sees them about to repeat Vlad's fantasyland contract all over again.

xps how about Mayor McBarge

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McBarge
The McBarge, officially named the Seaborne II (formerly the Friendship 500), was a former McDonald's restaurant, built on a 187-foot-long (57 m)[1] barge for Expo '86 in Vancouver, British Columbia

maybe my links will work!

Watching them lately hasn’t been this much fun since the Bautista years! 5 series wins in a row with two sweeps. Every game entertaining as hell.
Two things I’ve noticed about them this year that they sucked at before - they are not making bad outs on the base paths and they are suddenly amazing at getting down bunts

I'm still wary, but getting there--tuning in in the car regularly. One possible good thing is that this surge has been without Santander and Varsho, you could maybe add Scherzer and Manoah, plus Vlad has been just so-so. (Or Vlad has just been Vlad, but that's another topic.) So when Kirk and some of the others come back down to the earth, there are openings to make up for that.

Kirk has to be top five or so for MVP right now (behind another catcher, obviously).

Well...top 10 for sure.

That is a thing I’m concerned about. The back of our order is not likely to be able to keep carrying us. Clement, Straw, Lukes, Heineman… they can’t all keep hitting out of their minds. And then what happens when they come back down to earth?

That's where I think there's realistic hope, though--that that inevitability will be countered by the return of Varsho and Santander, and also a more productive Vlad (and maybe a better Bo, who's also just "pretty good" right now). Santander seems key.

Still hoping Roden pans out! Dude was destroying AAA. Was a little annoyed he didn’t play more when they called him back up

Everyone is hitting it hard, no one less than Springer, who's great to watch right now. Keeping up on fastballs and launching pitches. He's always had a low whiff rate, but it seems he's having particularly good at-bats. Best he's been since year one with us.

low chase* rate

I guess they flew too close to the sun on wings of pastrami.

I’m glad I stuck with this game!!!

Miracle of miracles--got home from tennis, tuned in for the bottom of the 9th. I saw it all!

Jesus Barger is getting fun as hell to watch

Addison Barger really is a cool name.

ESPN ranked MLB lineups and the Jays are 8th!

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45525740/mlb-2025-midseason-lineup-offense-rankings-dodgers-yankees-cubs-mets

If you'd told me that a month ago I would have said you were high, but at the moment I really do think it's a top ten offense. Nobody is exactly mashing, but there aren't many easy outs either. I think they have more comeback wins already than all of last season.

yeah, I also watched the bottom of the 9th yesterday. Contrary to last year where every time they were behind it felt insurmountable, I felt like they legitimately had a chance to come back here and this win wasn't a total surprise. They have suddenly become a fun team to watch.

Barger snuck in a nice little bat flip.

One actually useful bit of information I learned from Blair and Barker yesterday: Vlad thrives in the third spot. For his career:

Batting 3rd (2188 PA): .300/.377/.538
Anywhere else (1665 PA): .271/.348/.449

I don't know the psychology there, or if there is any, but that's a pretty decent sample size.

Was there for the giveaway today. Fun game - got a seat in the new bleachers and got tossed a ball before the game started

broadcast was saying Kirk has the highest Hard Hit % in the AL

via Savant

Kirk 56.3
Judge 55.5
Devers* 55.2
Vladdy 55.1

Wow

Will absolutely be the second AL catcher into the ASG.

Berríos halfway to his best season ever.

Three back, Yankees coming in for four.

Max vs. the Yankees, 40,000 in the dome--actually excited to watch a game (TV for me).

Classic Scherzer-Judge AB: 10 pitches, including a 500-level foul HR, ending with a called third strike on the corner that froze Judge. All for naught--Max grooves the next pitch and Chisholm hits a two-run homer.

Top of the 5th, down by a run, one out, runner on first, 2-0 count to Judge; Jays called for an IBB. I wasn't against it...we'll see what Chisholm does.

And scherzer hurt maybe?

And now Springer...If they hold on, may be a costly win.

I'm going to question this: 8th inning, 5-4 lead, no one out, IBB to Judge.

Almost blew up in their face, but two good catches by the CF and it worked out.

I was at tonight's game. It was a lot of fun.

oh awesome! looked like a great one to be at!

Backfired this time: Jays IBB'd Judge to put runners on first and second, none out, ahead 4-2. Game now tied...Rogers is going in and out, so I'm not sure how the Yankees got their runs. Anyway, I didn't post, was on the fence. So second-guessing now would be too easy.

Yay!!!

Worked out in the end!
This “walk judge at all costs” game plan is interesting. Wonder if the jays are the only team going this crazy with the IBB

https://i.ibb.co/MySCxN8V/pzrhbirrbcaf1.jpg

Of course I'm getting way ahead of myself--don't watch when they're losing, turn into a 10-year-old when they're winning--but right now it feels like a new team to me, and I'd even say it feels like Clement/Barger/Kirk's team (rather than Vlad/Bo). They almost feel...scrappy!

"Feel" three times in a 50-word post--heavily into the feeling now.

they're always scrappy, but sometimes the s is silent?

True enough.

Should have walked judge

This is so painful.

Everyone age a decade or two? First place!

Wild. NEver would have predicted this. Just nuts.

Clem is right, they've "felt" like a different team for a few weeks now. It's not a stars and scrubs team anymore, the role players are stepping up too, and we finally have a real offense as a result.

Not to complain too much because we won and all, but why give IBB's to Judge multiple times in the series (early innings, runners on, bases empty, game not on the line), and then pitch to him when he represents the tying run in the 8th? This reeks of Ned Yost/Grady Little "I had a good feeling" managing.

That's the most exciting thing to me, this new "scoring runs" twist, where--like in 1985 and 1993 and 2015--it never feels like you're out of the game. In 2023 and 2024, falling behind 3-1 always felt insurmountable.

At the same time, not waiting around for the home run--great when it happens, but they score other ways too.

Ya I’m 100% with you on the judge thing. That was an ideal situation to walk the guy. Reason I guess is Yimi is one of the best arms in the pen. But even before the hr I was thinking a) he just came back from the dl and b) it’s fucking Aaron judge. They did almost get away with it tho; until they didn’t.

Amazing: first-ever four-game sweep of the Yankees at home, sole possession of first. Springer for the four games: 8-14, 4 HR, 7 runs, 11 RBI.

Springer was unreal this series. I was hoping for a split - did not expect us to be in 1st today. This is just wild.

My team sucks so I'm adopting y'all's.

Welcome! Your Rance Mulliniks poster is in the mail.

I for one welcome our new disaffected-American overlord.

For the first time in forever, planning a Saturday around today's game (starting soon).

Garcia's out again. Pretty clear they'll have to pick up a key bullpen arm at the deadline.

Sounds like Schnider might have Mark Prior’d him with over using him to start the season (if the announcers are to be believed)

Springer (again)!

Starting to wonder if there's someone inside the dome banging a trash can.

dont even joke dude!

They're saying Garcia is an ankle injury, so that would seem to preclude overuse? (I guess there could be a connection if he altered his delivery at some point.)

Hopefully someone will tell Barger that cracking bats over your knee is not really advisable.

Barger can do whatever he wants -- another crazy win in extras!

Oh, man--letting that one slip away would have hurt. Amazing! (I just don"t want him to injure himself with stuff like that.)

How beautiful was that bunt by Lukes?

It was amazing. I cannot believe how they’ve turned their bunting game around since last year. Just a perfect push bunt to the perfect spot - clearly Angles weren’t ready for that

(Jiménez's ineptitude the inning before notwithstanding--can't have everything.)

Ha--the Twins walk-off over the Rays today was also on a bunt. The ghost of Billy Martin taking over baseball.

Jeff Blair was funny yesterday between innings (paraphrase): "Folks, the Yankees are losing to the Mets, the Twins just walked off the Rays, and the Angels just walked Addison Barger to pitch to Alejandro Kirk. We're in a brave new world here."

another one-run W!

Had to duck out after the Angels tied it 2-2...Only the second 7-game homestand sweep ever.

Just caught the 9th inning on repeat--Addison Robinson over at third.

They need a laugher--I hope they don't fritter this lead away. Helps that it's the White Sox.

I can't remember a Jays team where so many different players contributed up and down the lineup. Going into tonight's game, their Top 10 in oWAR range from Springer's 2.3 down to Varsho at 0.3. Tonight, it's Joey Loperfido.

Bank all these wins, please. They'll need them when they come down to earth.

First nine-game winning streak since the bat-flip year (two 11-game streaks).

>Bank all these wins, please. They'll need them when they come down to earth.

my thinking too!

They were a batter or two away from turning last night into a game...I know I shouldn't complain about anything right now, it's just weird that they keep doing this.

Berríos, "La Maquina":

2021 - 32 GS, 3.52
2023 - 32 GS, 3.65
2024 - 32 GS, 3.60
2025 - 34 GS, 3.53

Wasn't very machine-like in 2022.

(2025 projected, of course.)

10...one more to tie the team record.

They had Chelsea Gaines from the Washington Post on the FAN this morning, pointing out some affinities between this year's Jays and the 2019 Nationals.

I can't stand the losing.

Vlad is going to end up as a 5-6 WAR player this year, and he's the starting first baseman in the AS game. He's also, still, Vlad, very much on display today.

Ya, the old Vlad that used to pound the ball down way too often. He doesn’t come out much at all these days at least.

Going to throw this out there, with the usual caveat that I know nothing about the business side of the game: would it be a good (or even feasible) move to look for a big trade involving Bo in the next month or two? Could they get a decent middle infielder and a solid bullpen arm for him? Would it be needlessly tinkering with "team chemistry"?

I keep hearing that twenty something teams are still in contention, meaning that almost everyone is a buyer and nobody wants to sell. I don't see any team willing to pay the price that the Jays would want. If they want a bullpen rental there are other ways to get one. I'm sure they'll offer Bo a QO in the off-season, and he'll walk, and neither side will be disappointed.

In a perfect world, he and Vlad actually become the foundation of the offense down the stretch, instead of afterthoughts.

I'm not worried about Vlad. All the metrics show that he's killing the ball (line drive rate, barrel rate, etc.) I think he'll have a big second half, like last year.

I'm never not-worried about Vlad.

This is so funny: Scherzer strikes out two A's, and then the third guy, with two strikes on him, is called out for a clock violation. The hitter was upset, but Scherzer was even angrier!

The sun is about to set in West Sacramento and it's 105F.

(same temp as Las Vegas fwiw)

This is not really happening, is it?

Somehow they now own the third best W-L record in MLB, and are just a half game behind the Dodgers for second.

I’ve been wondering if Yariel is more suited for the closer role at this point. Yimi and sandlin are hurt and Swanson is cooked/in AAA - not a lot of options right now, but I just can’t with Hoff’s inconsistency

I find this winning-a-blowout/suddenly-facing-the-tying-run trend puzzling (three or four times in two weeks). I dohave a feeling that it's an omen of how we win or lose the division. To win, it'll have to be from in front--taking a decent lead into September and then holding on.

Stayed with that game till the end last night. A lot of LOB.

Watching Schnider get ejected today over the non-home run call and then having the other Schnider just blast the next pitch over the fence was the most entertained I’d been in a while

Playing tennis, missed all that. Glad the Yankees lost, but again, I keep thinking about needing to stockpile wins; this weekend was a perfect opportunity squandered.

(I will say, I'm impressed with the A's offense--they've got guys up and down the lineup with 10-20 home runs and hitting .270. If they had any pitching, they'd be probably be a contender.)

Ya. Surprisingly strong lineup

Actually four runs below league average, right in the middle; thought they'd be higher.

This is so ridiculous...

https://www.bluejaysinsider.com/mlb-team/toronto-blue-jays/trade-proposal-announced-with-the-toronto-blue-jays-landing-two-all-star-from-the-kansas-city-royals

Headline: "Trade proposal announced..."
Article: "On Sunday, Jon Heyman of the New York Post floated a blcokbuster trade idea..."

Some huge kids tournament in St. Marys this weekend. I was in front of a kid (9 or 10) in a jersey with his dad in Tim Hortons; they were from Mississauga, the kid was a catcher, and when I asked him if he liked Alejandro Kirk, big smile. Dad: "Kirky's his guy."

Awesome

Poking my head in to say good luck the rest of the way, team looks good. A team with a bunch of punching Judy's can work in modern baseball.

Thanks--we are pesky.

Something I'm not oblivious to: speaking pythagorically (an actual word, I checked), the Jays should be eight games behind the Yankees, rather than three up. That's an ominous disconnect.

ya, it's wild the difference there. reminds me of those mid 2010 Orioles teams that also had a big gap between real w/l vs pythag w/l. but they did it for like 3 seasons or so iirc. so who know if eeking out close wins is a kind of skill set. the jays def look a lot better at doing the "little things", they haven't been so great at past seasons.

I started trying to rationalize it with all those should-have-been-blowouts where they ended up close, but I think that's the whole point of the Pythagorean forumla, that those things all even out in the end. So I don't know--maybe they're due for some actual blowouts.

Or due for the other equalizer, but we won't think about that.

ya that's another thing i was considering, the pen regularly making things interesting but hanging on

Comparing RS/RA for the entire season is misleading here. Through the end of April, the Jays were actually outplaying their expected W-L record. They'd been outscored by 34 runs. Santander and Giminez were stinking up the lineup, Barger and Clement hadn't gotten going yet.

Since then, they're +60 in run differential, which is more in line with their actual W-L record. Over three months, that's not a fluke. I think we need to look at the team they're putting on the field right now, rather than lumping the early season version together with the current version.

They absolutely need to grab a couple of bullpen arms at the deadline (at the very least) because I don't trust most of their current guys come September/October.

Better record than the Dodgers now.

Nice moment: after an epic 14-pitch AB that ended in a flyout (runner on second), Carlos Rodon tipped his cap to Davis Schneider. His reward? Two quick run-scoring errors from his defense.

this team has a knack for these crazy long at bats. wish i'd caught that head nod lol

I only caught it on replay--video will turn up tomorrow.

The Brewers are getting lots of (deserved) attention right now, but I will point out that the Jays are only a game behind them for the best record in baseball (and within half a game of the Tigers for best in the A.L.).

Rodon-Schneider:

https://www.mlb.com/yankees/video/carlos-rodon-in-play-out-s-to-davis-schneider

love it

I’m enjoying these occasional drone shots

Missed tonight for tennis...11 men left on--Jesus.

did a bunch of yankees put money down on the jays or something?! that was some terrible baseball on their end. not just the errors themselves, but sloppy backing-up work and just jogging after the balls after they fuck up. wow.

Yankees committed 7 errors and gave up 4 unearned runs for the three games.

11-4. wow.

Got home for the 7th inning. Too good to be true right now.

Something they'll mention on broadcasts, still true: the Jays have struck out fewer times than any team in either league. I think they've finally turned into the 2015 Royals. A.L. rankings:

2015 Royals: 6th in runs scored, 14th in HR, fewest strikeouts, .269/.322/.412
2025 Jays: 4th in runs scored, 12th in HR, fewest strikeouts, .262/.333//412

That’s an unexpected comparison

Best record in baseball.

never would have predicted this. never in a million years.

Best record in MLB for the first time since 1992??

Hardly seems real.

Just going berserk now that Skubal is out of the game

PEAKING TOO SOON amirite

Listened to most on the game on the car radio, and was sitting in my driveway when Bo got his big hit, afraid to miss something from the car to the TV--been years since that happened.

that is awesome

my weekends with the kids, normally we do a movie in the evenings - but it's been baseball the last month now and they are loving it

The radio people are pushing hard for the Jays to pick up two solid relievers. They also kept making the comparison to the 2015 Royals...I hadn't heard that when I posted, and I was just thinking about the offense. The huge difference, I now realize, is that the Royals had an awesome bullpen that year.

I could be reading too much into two games, but these last two would seem to underscore the idea that two solid bullpen arms is indeed the way to go.

By the time I got home yesterday, the game was out of reach; just finding out about Springer now. God, I hope he's okay.

i didn't see it, but sounds like it looked pretty bad – but maybe not out long (knock on wood)

Bank all these wins, please. They'll need them when they come down to earth.
― clemenza, Monday, July 7, 2025

The 2025 Toronto Blue Jays, Part II: The Debanking.

*checks L10 in division*
They're still banking.

That's three blowout losses in a row, what in the f is happening here.

The frustrating thing is that they scored 4 runs in every game--not great, but they should have won one of them, maybe Scherzer's start. Again, the bullpen; they've got the starters that can at least keep them in the game through 5 or 6, and they finally have an offense that seems to be able to manufacture some runs when they're not hitting HR. What they don't have is a reliable bullpen.

From one clubhouse to the other--good start!

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dominse01.shtml

Got home just in time to authoritatively say "Pathetic."

that last strike was enraging

Bo leads the majors in clutch hitting this year, so I know I should cut him some slack, but I'm a disguntled, unappreciate fan hitting the panic button, so I think he needs to cut me some slack.

disgruntled, unappreciative--I'm so agitated, I can't even type.

The excruciating drama of caring about baseball.

That game was a roller coaster. Glad we got good Hoffman today.

Glad I spared myself the agony of watching them immediately fall behind 3-0; they were up 6-5 by the time I caught up with the game (didn't even realize it was a day game).

Trade deadline is so psychological. If the Jays come out of today without another deal, the players will say all the right things--like it's a vote of confidence in the team they have--but I'm sure many will internalize the message that management is content to drift into another WC spot and then hope for the best.

Uhhhhh Athletic reporting Bieber to jays

For Khal Stephens?

Long-term, I guess that's good, but I'm not sure how much that helps them now--he's rehabbing in double-A and has only pitched two MLB innings since 2023? (Which I'd forgotten till I checked.) I hope they're still looking for bullpen help.

He’s about to finish his rehab assignment so I guess they see what they get from him down the stretch

i think he should be ready to come up soon. 4 innings, 58 pitches in his most recent (4th) rehab stint at AA. one or two more at AAA and i think he should be gtg with some degree of workload management.

also, i thought you couldn't trade guys who were injured??

You can’t dfa them I’m pretty sure they can be traded though

i looked it up and seems like it is (or was?) that they had to be on a rehab assignment to be moved. i remember when they sent Donaldson to the Clevelands there was a rush (IIRC) to get him rehabbing so he could be moved before the deadline

Watching Blair and Barker, and their guest--forget his name; used to be president of the Marlins, hosts a podcast now--is doing Atkins' work for him, formulating the "We're comfortable with the group that got us where we are now" argument/defense.

Will Wagner for Brandon Valenzuela...who I'm going to assume is Fernando's son, because there's no way Toronto trades a son for a not-son.

Okay, we got a second bullpen guy: Louis Varland. Great stats this year, previous three seasons, not great.

Rolled the dice on a starter, two seemingly solid relievers, and a backup catcher to mitigate Kirk being out; overall, I'd say that's perfectly fine.

i really don't get why we had to trade away wagner for a AAA backup catcher and then had to replace him with france by trading away roden.
he hadn't hit his stride in the majors yet, but was slashing .331/.423/.496/.918 at AAA!

Great interview with David Price on Blair & Barker today about the 2015 deadline frenzy. One of my favourite players to listen to ever.

The Athletic has the Jays as deadline "losers"...I really don't see it that way. I would have loved getting Mason Miller, but clearly the Jays didn't have as much to offer as the Padres. I think they addressed their #1 need, and we'll see if Bieber works out.

I'll post a couple of pictures later...Was down for an excellent game today. Not wild-great, but crisp, well-played, and the kind of game the Jays need to win now with their reinforced bullpen. And saw vintage Max Scherzer, for the first time I think.

Four photos: 1) Max on the mound warming up; 2) Max on the scoreboard; 3) my friend Callum and I; 4) Vlad doing his Gatorade thing to Davis Schneider (with Hazel Mae in red ducking out).

https://i.postimg.cc/nz9b68pk/IMG-5233.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/ht4FKQKh/IMG-5234.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/MG4g0sVj/IMG-5238.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/8CF0Ch9k/IMG-5242.jpg

Callum's had a bit of a baseball career--either semi-professional or just on the cusp of semi-professional. He still plays (pitcher) in London. This might be of interest to mookieproof: he told the only pitcher he ever faced who played in the majors was this guy.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davidda01.shtml

Dan Schulman's trying to figure out rotations and thinks there's a good chance of Scherzer-Kershaw on Friday.

Joey Loperfido's hitting .387! (May come down to earth at some point.)

Felt like Varsho epitomized this lineup last year; now he sticks out like a sore thumb.

We're supposed to be the 2015 Royals. The whole system's breaking down.

Not sure if a three-game sweep in Colorado is too much to expect, but with the Dodgers up after that, I sure hope the players expect it. Being on the wrong end of these blowouts lately almost has their run differential down to even.

I'd be happy with 2/3 in Colorado, honestly. Jays are only 1 Home Run Allowed better than the Rockies, who at least have excuses (Coors/are bad).

Lauer's kicking it off tonight with a Coors Field history of: 7 starts, 23.1 IP, 33 ER. 0-6 with a 12.73 ERA.

Ideally they sweep a terrible team, of course, but I wouldn't bet on it myself as it looks particularly unpredictable

That's horrible! No one else they could give the start to? I guess they're hoping for three or four decent innings from him.

Gotta go with your guys.

Lauer's peripherals aren't the most encouraging either (he's been terrific, but seemingly lucky: .239 babip and 82.2 LOB%)

looking forward to this one, I'm keeping the faith

but yes lauer should've pitched the last KC game, you would think

One thing we were talking about at that game on Saturday--would be interested to hear from the other three Jays regulars here--was comparing Devon White to Pillar to Kiermaier in CF. The latter two were human highlight reels, but--selective memory, perhaps--we both thought White was the best. Not as many circus catches because his instincts were so good; as the cliche goes, he made everything look easy.

White's first three seasons in Toronto were 2.2, 3.9, and 2.1 dWAR; Kiermaier's one full season was 2.2; Pillar's three best were 2.9, 2.7, and 1.7. Kiermaier has a 4.4 season for the Rays.

It's hard to judge! Those guys could make routine plays on the most out-of-reach balls, so yeah, looks easy.

how reliable are defensive numbers in Devo's time?

Starting at first for the Rockies tonight: Warming Bernabel. Now that's a name. (32 AB, hitting .438.)

Bo sure is going to cash in, isn't he?

Nice reverse jinx on Lauer, Francis.

Felt like Varsho epitomized this lineup last year; now he sticks out like a sore thumb.
― clemenza, Sunday, August 3, 2025

Trust me, that was a very insightful post two days ago.

Our Rod Carew/Tony Gwynn is okay: https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/blue-jays-joey-loperfido-x-rays-clean/

phew, yeah that looked bad.

what a crazy game/series. just... wow. franchise scoring/hit record for a 3 game series.

most hits in a three-game going all the way back to 1901.

The 1901 Jays were awesome...Honest to god, this has been amazing. (Been out all day and was only following on the computer--just the score, still have to see how they scored all those runs.) The main thing is--and for me this is a big deal--the Jays did exactly what they were supposed to do. They did more than they needed, but generally speaking, you expected them to sweep Colorado and score a lot of runs. And they did.

i don't think it's fair to ever expect a sweep, but they def needed to take the series after looking out of sorts for a bit there.

I really was--expecting a sweep, that is. Really good teams--which this one may or may not be--regularly do that, they take control. Even if math says 2/3 was more likely.

From what I can see online, a .585 team playing a .285 team is expected to win about 73% of the time. I guess you can knock that down a bit for home-field advantage...anyway .73 x .73 x .73 is approximately 38% for a sweep. So even mathematically, a sweep wasn't all that unlikely.

math!

I was promised there wouldn't be any!

A little breathing room--back to 4.0.

Just watched the Blue Jays in 30...That last half-inning was surreal; I think they were at 15 runs with 2 out, then they tacked on five more.

Jays' 1-4 hitters in this game: a combined 13 for 27, 12 runs scored, 5 HR, 11 RBI. And no walks (too busy crushing the ball).

That's like an all-time great stat line for the AL player of the week. But in a single game!

Vintage COVID VladJr with those park factors.

For all the complaining I do about this very thing (their inability to go for the jugular)...

https://i.postimg.cc/rpjvjyzs/sweep.jpg

Who could ask you to give up the pleasure of complaining, though?

The Joe Walsh in me would find such a request unacceptable.

Made me laugh: Buck Martinez's old-guy exasperation with Blake Snell checking his notes in the middle of an AB. ("Don't you go over that before the game?")

Meanwhile, Vlad continues to be the best hitter in baseball who never gets a game-changing hit.

I skipped a screening of Yojimbo for that. (The samurai film would have been more genial.) I'm just not meant to watch baseball on a Saturday night.

Promising: five good rehab starts for Bieber, 2.75 ERA, 28/3 K/BB ratio.

Life!

About time

Pathetic.

Yeah well luck of the batting order to have conforto up there, always surprised to see his obp is above .000; fooled me

There ya go

Our "closer" just walked five guys in 2/3 of an inning.

Fluherty's stuff looked good for the ERA he's rockin'. Good game

To balance that, some guy named Mason Fluharty just got two first-ballot HOF'ers out with the bases loaded to win the game, ensuring he will be remembered forever.

i was yelling at my tv when i saw hoffman coming back out for the 9th. i can't deal with this guys roller coaster bullshit.
thank god for Ernie Clement. blown away they got out of that mess.

I feel exactly the same way about Hoffman. He's more of a Romano than Romano was.

13 walks and they somehow won. In 55 years of watching baseball, I don't think I've ever seen a team walk 13.

Looks like 11 walks, but ya. What a sloppy win.

"Jeff Hoffman is the first pitcher since at least 1901 to surrender 5+ walks in less than an inning of work and get credited with a win."

hahaha, holy shit

Who recorded the last save which saw 2 former MVPs (Bonds, Kent) retired with the bases loaded? August 2002. It wasn’t a guy named Fluharty

Wouldn't even know how to cheat and look that up (short of going through boxscores from that month).

For me, the Ohtani-Betts combination is even more impressive than Bonds-Kent (the difference between Ohtani and Bonds is more than countered by Betts vs. Kent).

It was Hoffman, Trevor

Although the Mason Fluharty legend has yet to be written, I'm giving the edge to Bonds/Kent/Hoffman as a threesome.

Although the Mason Fluharty legend has yet to be written, I'm giving the edge to Bonds/Kent/Hoffman as a threesome.

https://i.imgur.com/3WbUZkc.jpeg

I'm going to feel really stupid when you tell me, gyac, but who is that?! (Just saying here that the career value of Bonds/Kent/Hoffman will probably exceed the career value of Ohtani/Betts/guy from yesterday.)

(Posnanski)

"In the game, the Dodgers had 10 hits and 13 walks.

And I immediately thought: WHOA, I’ll bet that has NEVER happened before.

Wrong. There have been 215 games in baseball history where teams have had at least 10 hits and 13 walks in a game.

Huh. Two hundred and fifteen, you say? That’s a lot. Well, fine, but I’ll bet no team has ever LOST a game when having 10 hits and 13 walks in a game.

Actually, teams have lost such games 27 times through the years."

I'm going to feel really stupid when you tell me, gyac, but who is that?! (Just saying here that the career value of Bonds/Kent/Hoffman will probably exceed the career value of Ohtani/Betts/guy from yesterday.)

Ken Griffey Jr! Specifically from this video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73b_FkesrZw

Honestly, I did think of Jr.--but I had an image of young Jr. in my mind, Jr. Jr., and wasn't 100% sure.

The guy with the mic's funny: "I don't even know what that means."

I'm down Thursday afternoon to see the Cubs, Scherzer (again) vs. Matthew Boyd. Don't know anything about Boyd, but having a great season. Will also be there for the Orioles on the 14th, and then Thermo and I have tickets to see the Rays in the last game of the season. I don't know what I want there in terms of the game being meaningful or not. If I had to choose between meaningless (because they've secured a playoff spot) or they need to win for a WC, I'd go with meaningless. If it's meaningless (WC clinched) vs. a game that decides whether they win the division or settle for a WC, I'll opt for the second. Not even entertaining meaningless-because-they're-out.

Boyd is interesting as he's only pitched more innings than he has this season twice, and both times were 6-7 years ago.

I imagine he'll fatigue out with the workload, but I said the same thing about Chris Sale last season and he pitched almost until the end of the season, only breaking down to miss his final 3 starts (and sit out the playoffs).

Ha--I now see he pitched (horribly) for the Jays in 2015, the bat-flip season. As soon as I saw he also pitched for the Tigers that year, I suspected right away what was indeed the case: he was the third guy in the trade that brought David Price here.

Was there for a classic game today: weekday sellout, 2-1 win, two hours and six minutes (the two starters had thrown 97 pitches and given up no runs through five complete innings--we saw some version of a Maddux), face of the franchise gets the big hit with a two-run HR (for all of his many virtues, something he hardly ever does), second and third with none out for the Cubs and Little/Seranthony strike out the side. And I got to be part of a standing ovation for a HOF'er when Scherzer got pulled mid-inning ahead 2-1.

Could have been watching deGrom-Grom tonight--stupid Apple TV.

Came back from 5-2!

Ya what a game. Kirk getting handed the base after his first career sb (no clue why in the fuck he was running there or how/why they didn’t try to throw him out) (and he was offering no details in the post game interview) was awesome

Awesome is the word--watch Max.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfC7I9BSNjw

Kirk doesn't crack even a trace of a smile until the base is handed to him.

glad i stuck with this one! classic '25 Jays.

I have nothing to complain about. This feels altogether wrong.

Off to the game today for both my kids birthday. along with 30 (I am serious) friends and their fams. Will be my youngest’s first game (along with 3 other kids and one adult). Pretty excited. Hope the weather doesn’t affect the outdoor pre game jr jays events

Great pitching match-up.

Yesterday's game:

"For the first time in the modern era, a team's starting outfield has reached based at least 4 times AND hit a home run in the same game."

Not sure what counts as the "modern era."

If I'm Max Scherzer, I'm sending Myles Straw an expensive case of something tomorrow. (Two fantastic catches tonight.)

If I'm Max Scherzer, I'm staring into the mirror admiring my beautiful eyes for hours on end...

https://kenneltocouch.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/iStock-877106678-1080x675.jpg

What a return for Bieber: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 9 K, 1 run (HR). Marlins are below league average offensively, but not drastically.

still great to see. looked good, loved those Ks

Bieber was great, next year's rotation should all be former CY winners that most teams gave up on, this seems to be our specialty.

Not sure if I want the Yankees and Red Sox to split all their remaining games--logically, the best thing--or if I'd rather see Boston bury the Yankees. Whatever superstitious dread I have is reserved for the Yankees.

If they have to drop someone from the rotation, that really is a tough call: Bassit, Berrios, or Lauer? How do drop Lauer, who leads all Jays pitchers with 2.7 WAR? One of the other two, I would think. They've both had one horrible start in their last five; their pitching lines for the year are more or less interchangeable.

It appears to be Lauer, for the time being. Bassitt and Berrios' stats are amazingly similar.

I guess seniority/stature trumps all. But Lauer's been so good--hope he can transfer that to long relief.

I just looked, mlb.com has Lauer starting the 27th. It was the off-day that affected the decision to skip one. Yeah, my first thought was the politics of it (or the conditioning involved), because he's been perhaps their best starter.

These are nice problems to have. Would they go to a six man rotation until the end of the regular season?

I see they have a day off before and after they play NYY in the bronx. That gives 7 days off instead of the usual 4 for some of the SPs if they stuck with a 6-man

Casey Stengel might have called Berrios's performance today "creative anxiety"--he may not have used those exact words.

As far as six starters go, I have no idea how the rest-vs.-staying-sharp equilibrium would play out. I have no recollection of any winning team ever trying that--must have been someone in there.

God this game has been painful

We are loaded with great relievers but also an unreliable bullpen

How excruciating was that? I was so put off by Hoffman, I actually went for a walk and missed all the lead-trades in extra innings. Got back in time for Bichette's great play in the 12th. Between that, the relay, and the four hits, I think Bo made himself and extra 5 or 10 million today.

Can we sweet-talk the other Hoffman out of retirement?

A Sisyphus-like extra innings.

For all you highbrows, yeah--I call it a Wild Things extra innings, with lots of false endings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU0_aaqgHTI

Volpe earlier today with the same play Bichette pulled off in the 12th ^

Never happy, I know...Today feels like a reminder that Gausman is one of the best second-tier starters in the game. Not first-tier, though--he needs to go out and lock that game down.

I know that Hoffman has pitched better than his ERA would indicate, but I really think he's the ceiling on how far they go; I can't see any team winning a World Series with him as their closer, not unless it's a team that has an offense so explosive they play very few one- or two-run games.

I actually posted the above when the score was 4-4, about 15 seconds before the three-run homer.

When they brought Dominguez in, I was hoping he was going to stay in for the 9th. I’ve been done with the Hoffman ride for a while

Doubtful the Jays will place anyone inside the Top 10 for MVP, but I'm curious how Vlad/Bo/Springer will finish. Springer will be hurt as a DH, but he's clearly the Jays' best hitter this yea.

...year.

Vlad is easily highest WAR. I’d expect him and Bo to do better

Vlad will, not 100% sure about Bo; Kirk will probably get a down-ballot vote or two. It's hard to construct an MVP argument for a 35-year-old DH who's missed 20 games. But he is, across the board, the team's best offensive player: first in HR, SB, OBP, SLG, and OPS+, and second in runs, BA, and bWAR. I sometimes feel like he's the "heart and soul" of the team, or at least right there will Vlad. Both guys are really exciting when they're fired up and playing well.

i love springer so much. the only guy on that astros team i really loved

Dan Schulman said something funny the other night: that he's convinced that Springer thinks Vlad and Dalton Varsho are the two funniest people on earth. (Wish I could embed a YouTube link of one of the commercials Springer and Vlad have done together, but can't find any--this is related to a great one they do for Smucker's.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRQHbWq8CAc

i love springer so much. the only guy on that astros team i really loved

Huge himbo energy. I actually have two videos on my phone, one I made and one you sent, of him feeling up various Red Sox players when he got on base.

Also I should tell this thread about An Incident I experienced the other day.

I was flying, as I often do, London-Dublin and there was a man wearing a Blue Jays cap on board as I was going to my seat. I usually take a passive count of hats I saw (LHR count this time: 1 Jays, 1 Angels, 2 Dodgers, 1 White Sox). I don’t bother counting Yankees caps cos everyone wears them and I doubt most people wearing them are ball fans.

Anyway I was passing this Jays fan and I was like, oh man I have to greet clemenza’s fellow fan if he’s going to the homeland

- Hello, sir?
- Yes?
*gestures at cap with eyes* Can you believe the season they’re having?
*face cracks open with HUGE smile* I KNOW, ISN’T IT GREAT?
*slight nod* Sure, if you’re a Jays fan, I’m not.
- This is the season to be a fan!
- Ah another AL East team, you understand…

I bid him adieu and moved to my seat as the aisle had cleared.

It wasn’t even the standard Jays cap, it was some limited edition one that they give away for special days but I can’t remember which one now…all I can tell you is it wasn’t Canada Day cos that one’s red, right?

I also talked to the White Sox fan but that conversation wasnt worth reporting.

Unbelievable...whatever I've said here, I think I would have felt as bad for Hoffman if he'd blown that as I've ever felt for any player ever.

Vintage Springer here scoring the ninth (and winning) run last night around 11:15:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGdWy1HLs-g

https://i.postimg.cc/7LQ6wDhS/springer.jpg

Friday night could be something: Milwaukee, Peralta, Shane Bieber's home debut, and guaranteed not an empty seat.

Four in a row for Boston, five for NY; unnerving.

well now you know how it feels!!

Great pitcher's duel last night for five innings. Goddamn Toronto bullpen.

was watching the Bad Guys 2 with my kids and then switched to the game after just as Bieber got pulled and got to watch the other bad guys give the game away.

I don't know the right answer to the question of how long you stick with someone, but it feels like continuing to throw out a closer who now has an ERA over 5.00 is more or less in line with the last two playoff debacles. We've got a plan, we're staying with it come hell or high water.

Dude should have lost the 9th job weeks ago. Honestly was glad to hear the boo’s today. Maybe schnider will get the message

I realize this is a low-leverage situation with a four-run lead, and that you could argue this is a good situation to Hoffman to get some of his confidence back. But honestly--why the fuck would you tempt fate by sending him out for the ninth today?

One circus catch, one double, and one infield hit later--and a pitch that I swear Contreras just missed for a three-run homer--Jays win. Managerial malpractice.

Raleigh Schmaleigh--Myles Straw for MVP.

If the Jays exit, I will definitely root for the Brewers. They're a really impressive team, emphasis on team.

They’ve been my NL team for a while now. Hopefully we can get them in a rematch in an about eight weeks!

Was in a pub after tennis and half-watching the monitor. Might be time to take a break for a couple of days.

Hope Schneider got an earful afterwards: if he hadn't pointlessly thrown out Hoffman for the 9th yesterday, he could have used him today...which, seeing as Hoffman is so lousy, probably nets the same result anyway, I know. This is just a terrible bullpen. (I thought their two pick-ups at the deadline were solid, so I'm a little puzzled.)

I don’t even know what schneider does with a pen that is determined to implode no matter who we throw out there.
Agreed on taking a break from watching them. I can’t deal with this anymore

FWIW, the Jays reached their peak on July 26, after winning three in a row in Detroit. They led the division by 6.5 and were the #1 seed in the AL. Since then, they're 16-17. Needless to say, I have no confidence in their bullpen being consistent enough to sustain a long playoff run. But nearly every year, the eventual WS winner leans on a few no-name relievers who get hot at the right time in October. I'm still trying to be optimistic.

Use your imagination...bear with me here...desparate situation: assuming they manage to hang on for the post-season, approach either Max or Beiber about closing.

Looking around, I didn't realize the Scherzer idea has indeed been thrown around (including by Eric Hosmer, of all people). I know it's far-fetched, but we do have two more starters than we need for the post-season.

Because there's some actual research here, I'll cut-and-paste something I posted on FB today:

To anyone who remembers, we're basically re-living 1983 right now with the Jays, the first year they ever contended, and two seasons before Henke arrived. The Summer of Joey.

1983 Jays: 36 saves, 26 blown saves - 55% conversion.
2025 Jays: 38 saves, 23 blown saves - 62% conversion.

Much to my surprise, though, we’re not that much worse than the other division leaders (and the Phillies are just as bad).

Tigers: 36 saves, 18 blown saves - 67%
Astros: 40 saves, 14 blown saves - 74%
Phillies: 38 saves, 23 blown saves - 62%
Brewers: 39 saves, 19 blown saves - 67%
Dodgers: 37 saves, 22 blown saves - 63%

Weird: Aroldis Chapman has saved 28/30 (93%) for the Red Sox--he’s back to being unhittable this year--but as a team Boston’s 40/64 for 63%...the rest of the team is 12/34?! That can’t be right.

Anyway, at this point, I’d seriously consider approaching either Max or Bieber about closing. You don’t need six starters for the post-season; you don’t even need five. If pitch counts and innings are of paramount concern to a 41-year-old and a guy coming off Tommy John surgery, why not have one of them go out there and air it out for an inning two days out of three? Not sure if either would agree to, but I’d give it a try.

(Joey being Joey McLaughlin, who over time has become the poster boy for the Jays' failed procession of would-be closers before Henke's arrival.)

I thought that was Bill Caudill (IIRC, the first ever free agent signing for the Jays)?

Caudill was definitely part of that procession--he began '85 as the Jays' high-priced acquisiton to close--but I think he's largely forgotten now, whereas everyone I talk to (locally) seems to remember Joey. In '82 and '83, he saved 17 and blew 17 (10/11 in '81, though).

Jays fans: put aside that we know this almost certainly won't happen, but am I way off here?

If Scherzer's back is acting up again, all my wild speculation is for naught.

I'm glad I was playing tennis tonight instead of watching the Jays turn an 8-1 lead into another save situation for Jeff Hoffman. Now that I'm home, I get to watch that. If he blows another one, I will quite probably start running through the streets of St. Marys screaming obscenities.

What do you know--not only did he get the save, he looked really good doing it.

After another big game last night (2 HR), Springer is now--if you don't count Kurtz, who's short on AB but qualifies anyway--second in the league in OPS behind Judge.

This is ridiculous...does anybody play normal baseball games around here?

We were down 5-0, then up 12-6, now it looks like we get to take another joyride with Jeff Hoffman.

Caught the last couple of innings of the Yankees/Astros last night, and their bullpen is obviously the same train-wreck ours is. The series this weekend: 15 total runs scored in innings 1-5, 45 in the last four.

Excellent. One more win in NY would of course be great (and two amazing), but they've avoided the disaster scenario. Jays have four of the top seven in the batting race (Bichette, Springer, Guerrero, Kirk), and Bichette might just win it.

Great way to start the series! Was too worried to even watch and then the gf tells me the bases are loaded in the first and I was in

Today seems doubtful--Bassitt's been just terrible on the road this year. (Good career record against the Yankees, though.) Vlad was born to play for the Yankees; just kills it in Yankee Stadium.

Better in Fenway, but (195 PA): 16 HR, .299/.364/.627, double today.

What a nervy appeal (and great play) by Vlad.

Fuck, no--possible Bichette injury (play at the plate).

Entire country breathes sigh of relief: Bichette back after a rain delay.

probably just got bonked on the knee cap or shin, which will hurt a lot for a bit but thats the worst of it.

Mr. Panicky here hardly ever says this, but losing today doesn't seem like a big deal. They got a good start out of Bassitt, which I didn't expect. Just couldn't hit, and they've been hitting so much lately, that was bound to happen. Will now stay on tennis--been flipping back and forth.

Was just able to see the first four or five innings before tennis; that inning where they had second and third with none out and couldn't score was deflating.

Bichette placed on the 10-day IL...Damn good thing they picked up IKF.

I'm psychic!

Craig Kimbrel has washed up on shore in Houston...c'mon, Toronto, get this #$%^ run in.

I'm down there Thursday afternoon; I'll be all hopped up on cinnamon swirls if they win again tomorrow. Fantastic finish tonight--shirtess Heineman was hilarious, IKF sounded like a guy who just got a death-row reprieve.

A little penance for all the times I knock him...Vlad's September line thus far (30 AB/33 PA): .567/.606/.867.

Really? We're going to lose to someone named Jason Alexander? Clemenza is getting frustrated.

it's the summer of George!!

fucking. Hoffman.

It's so dispiriting...I got lulled into forgetting about him for a few games.

They have to do something about Hoffman. They can't put him out there in a tie game during the playoffs -- you can bank on him surrendering the game winning HR. I don't know what the answer is, but it isn't him.

Their (meaning Schneider/Atkins/Shapiro's, I suppose) loyalty to him baffles me. It's not like he's been their closer for a few years, which makes any kind of break a little tougher. He doesn't, comparatively, make some ungodly amount of money, which might make them dig in. And there are alternatives--there are always alternatives. Even those '83-'85 teams kept running out different guys till they eventually found Henke.

If this is primarily Schneider's call--doubtful--maybe he's living inside some fantasy whereby Hoffman catches fire for the postseason and he's seen as the guy who stuck by him when everybody was screaming for his demotion. Again, baffled.

part of it is that old school magical thinking - that if they "stick with their guy" he'll come around. i think it's also partly to do with the fact that our entire pen has struggled lately and with Swanson, Green and Garcia all gone for various reasons, there aren't a ton of options. but at this point either Siranthony or Varland should be getting the chance to close things out at this point. should have done it weeks ago.
it's possible that losing his role might also cause hoffman to get in his own head and struggle more - and then we're stick with a costly reliever - who still has good stuff – that we can't use at all.

Hoffman's a grown-up, he can handle it. And if he can't, then who cares? Every player wants to be the star, but management has to decide who to trust and who to relegate to a supporting role. That's team sports for you. If they want to win, somebody has to make some tough decisions, and fast.

Gausman missed throwing a maddux by going one pitch over! what a performance.

I was there! (Will post a couple of photos tomorrow.) That will almost certainly be the last CG shutout in the entire history of baseball, and I was there to see it. Even if, as always, I talked so much I needed a little help to keep up. Me: "If he gets out of this inning, I wonder if they'll actually send Gausman out for the ninth?" My friend Steve: (points at scoreboard).

I really hope the Jays pay attention to this in the postseason:

Bassitt (home): 8-0, 2.76
Bassitt (away): 3-8, 5.42

And again pitching very well at home tonight.

Okay, might be hurt now--carry on.

Every Blue Jay fan's worst nightmare: leading 2-1 going into the 8th.

3-1 now, but still worrisome

Looks like the human t-ball stand is going to come out at some point in the 9th

Jays' success right now seems to hinge so much on dodging Hoffman: Gausman yesterday, big 8th inning tonight.

And, to state the obvious, you can only get away with that for so long.

Another come from behind! Back of the order just chipping away. Love it

Had our big tennis tournament today, but caught the last two innings in a pub. First time in ages I've been demonstrative about a Jays game in that kind of setting in years.

So many seeing-eye hits! It was a lucky win, but we'll take it.

Our saviour:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-set-to-promote-trey-yesavage-to-majors/

Kidding--but I do hope he pitches well enough to find a spot on the postseason roster (unless they've already decided that won't happen regardless).

kinda surprising to hear he's going to start a game, after they just moved lauer to the pen

Here’s my picks:
https://postimg.cc/fJ41ZgNW

Jesus Christ. Wrong thread somehow

I'm 4-0 for the year now, just crushing it. (If they lose when we're down, Thermo, it won't be my fault.) Of course I missed Springer's home run when I was on my way back with popcorn (and not looking at a monitor.) You really have to watch other teams to fully appreciate how good our outfield--CF in particular, obviously--defense is.

I totally forgot we have that game coming up!

And here I thought it was the highlight of your 2025 social calendar.

Gausman on Thursday (we were up high):

https://i.postimg.cc/zfqvv7CZ/IMG-5277.jpg https://i.postimg.cc/7Zk01g3X/IMG-5280.jpg

Today (almost field level):

https://i.postimg.cc/XvvZxxpK/IMG-5288.jpg

Plus some expert game footage I shot of Barger's bases-clearing double (all the the inane bellowing is not us--I can be heard at the end: "I'm now officially one of those people...").

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKiB-dmyxAI

Great seats!

Lmao that video is great

I'm available for weddings and bar mitzvahs, too...meanwhile, Vlad likes to toss baseballs into the crowd, and the guy two rows down managed to catch one while holding two extra-large hot dogs in his left hand.

Yesavage gets the start tonight against the Rays...If you don't know him, he was our first-round pick in 2024; his combined 2025 line (A/A+/AA/AAA):

5-1, 3.12, 98 IP, 54 H, 8 HR, 41 BB, 160 K, 0.969 WHIP

A 14.7 K rate! (Walks are a little high tho)

Had trivia tonight, so I just caught from the 8th on; assume he was awesome, though.

Caught up with the highlights..Such an unusual delivery; was is Palmer who threw straight overhand?

Don’t know about Palmer - but that debut was wild. At one point missed an immaculate inning by one missed call!

Not life or death, but that was a terrible call (Jeffrey Maier-type play).

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/blue-jays-vs-rays/2025/09/16/776305/live/live

There's a clip of the play in here--should have been fan interference.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/rays-awarded-home-run-vs-blue-jays-after-confusing-fan-interference-review/

The ruling was that the fan didn't (conclusively) reach out into the field of play. To me it looks perfectly clear that he did. Bad call. At least it didn't cost them the game.

If we end up losing the bye, would have hated having that play lurk in the background. Lukes might have caught it, he might not have--but who knows, he never got the chance.

As of today, the Jays are a .500 team all-time: 3850-3850.

Is that actually the first time ever? I thought maybe they would have hit .500 sometime in the '92 or '93 season.

well they are 27 games over .500 this year, last year they finished 14 under .500, but in 2023 they were 16 games over .500, so they would have been slightly over .500 at the end of the 2023 season at least

They've probably been there a few times then.

wait, rereading my post I am realizing that my math is totally wrong, they would have been at 13 games under 500 at the end of the 2023 season, so yeah, maybe first time

Did a quick plus/minus in my head from their BRef franchise page, and if my math is correct, they edged above .500 at the end of the '93 season.

Very detailed explanation from Dan Schulman of the non-interference call last night--complicated.

Starting with the fact that NY agreed there was interference, at which point it becomes a case of three questions.

I feel like with Lucas so close to the ball there - it’s fucking insane to give the batter benefit of the doubt when they acknowledge there was interference.

Thinking of how anemic last year's offense was, these last two games are a little ominous.

Depending upon how the weekend goes, I may be moving over to the doomposting thread.

Yankees has six left against the Orioles and three with the White Sox; depending upon how engaged the Orioles are, could easily see them taking seven.

This is what keeps older Jays fans awake at night (I think the other regular Jays posters are younger than me but old enough to remember):

https://i.postimg.cc/MHY1FffP/collapse.jpg

The kindness of strangers...The one huge difference between this year and '87 is that we have no games left with the Yankees. I'm sure the math is more complicated than this, but intuitively it feels like the Yankees needing to make up three games by winning while we lose to someone else is twice as difficult as three head-to-head games.

Geez--I bailed when it was 7-1, and it was 10-1 last time I looked. Had no idea about anything after that. That is an ugly, concerning loss (because of Scherzer and because of the three hits--two runs in three games--more than the score).

The Tyler Heineman game. Ten runs given up by a catcher isn't something you see every day.

holy shit. last night did not go well.

also Berrios is getting moved to the pen!!

Obviously they've basically clinched a playoff spot, but in terms of winning the division, today feels important. Don't want this to snowball, and with Scherzer suddenly looking like the 41-year-old he is and Berrios in the bullpen, Bieber needs another good start.

The Donna Chang Seinfeld is starting to creep into my thoughts: "You know, you're not really a good baseball team."

I’m watching the game and I think I know what stresses Jays fans out so bad — I’d be climbing the walls too if I had to listen to Buck Martinez’s voice on the reg

No we’ve been conditioned. We get stressed when we *don’t* hear his voice.
The winter months are tough.

Between the agony of watching a closer who can't close or an offense that scores two runs in four games (when trying to clinch), I think I'd rather have the former. A hapless offense is just the worst thing to watch when you have a rooting interest in baseball.

xp oh no

Another dreadful fucking call. There was no doubt Varsho caught that ball.

HOW THE FUCK WAS THAT OVERRULED

So many of these calls come down to the original call on the field (it was the same thing with the non-interference call the other night). I sometimes think they need to rethink the idea that New York must be 100% sure before they'll overturn something. It's like the difference between a civil case (preponderance of the evidence) and a criminal case (unanimous jury)--with the assistance of 10 different replay angles, preponderance of the evidence ought to be enough.

I am fucking seething. Starting to buy into some of the conspiracy theories with the replay office at this point

Yanks just hit a go-ahead GS in extras in Baltimore, and we have a three run lead in the 9th in KC, with Hoffman coming in to pitch. I am not relaxed.

What kind of delay were you on?!

Clinched!!!

Thank god for that. Went out to play tennis when it was 6-5--I'd suffered enough for one weekend--game was done when we finished. Now they need that bye.

Not sure how they make room, but I'm hoping Yesavage is on the playoff roster. He pitched better than his line today: two infield hits created the two runs in the fourth, and the botched call led to the runs in the fifth. (Conceding that he would have otherwise benifitted from an amazing catch.) The starting pitching is shaky past Gausman right now, and even he can run hot and cold.

he's our #3 best starter at the moment!

What a difference a week makes. His first start was a fun moment, let's see what the kid can do. Now it's "please save our season ww need this bye."

MLB.com's last "power rankings" have the Jays 4th (top 3 obvious). Maybe slightly generous, in that they do carry some historical baggage into the postseason--many of these players were around for the Gausman/Berrios debacles. They also list an MVP for each team, and for the Jays they've got Vlad. Maybe, but for me it's Springer.

Vlad leads in bWAR, 4.7-4.4, which you'd expect because of GG defense vs. mostly-DH. But I'm going touchy-feely intangible old-school here, and I do believe it's Springer who most fires up the team, and who more than anyone else "makes things happen."

Wow: Alek Manoah DFA'd. (To make room for Anthony Santander, no less.)

Another possibly terrible call--need to see it again--followed by a defintely terrible strike call. Jays should be up 2-1.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WImjV3Uz7JM

Literally--Springer's sitting in the dugout seething.

Put aside Sunday, four runs in five games.

Putting aside Sunday, the Jays in their last six games/losses:

5 runs (1/0/1/1/1/1)
22 hits (4/4/3/4/3/4)

Let me be the first whiny, unappreciative fan to question Sunday's wild champagne celebration for...clinching a WC spot for the fourth time in six seasons. I know it's a long season and that even getting a WC is an accomplishment. I know that it may be the last chance you get to celebrate this year. And I know that there are always new guys who may never have won anything.

But maybe you might want to consider holding off on that until you at least clinch the division? Or, even better, until you win a playoff series? (Or even a playoff game--the Jays have not won a playoff game since 2016.)

If we do squander the division, our collapse will be forgotten next to Detroit's. But only because we ran out of time.

Sort of ironic (or something): this week's meltdown has zero to do with Jeff Hoffman.

Normally I would say that Vlad getting thrown out for arguing balls and strikes was stupid and childish. It's true that that offense has been cold. But the last week has been a parade of bad umpiring calls. Crochet was dealing and getting calls on pitches outside the strike zone, he doesn't need the help. I guess I'm saying that I understand the frustration.

It all evens out. Jays have benefited from a lot of good luck this season imo

For what it's worth, the pitch Vlad got tossed on did catch a tiny bit of the plate. Vlad during this tailspin: 27 PA, 4 H, 1 2B, 0 HR, 1 BB, 2 RBI, .154/.185/.192. He got the big hit Sunday to put them ahead. Not just him, of course. It's just, you know, money.

as long as there is a banner celebrating WC losses, I guess they'll do the champagne

Either a glimmer of hope or the next sign of the apocalypse: the Jays haven't been swept in a series since the Phillies in mid-June.

Getting into the weeds here, but I didn't want the Dodgers to clinch tonight because they're headed to Seattle for the last three, and I want the Jays to stay ahead of Seattle...even though I'm honestly not sure if that matters.

Normally wouldn't care, but tonight I do: can't watch the Jays game because of Apple TV. (Last Friday's was Apple too, but for some reason Sportsnet was able to pick it up. Doesn't look as if they are tonight.)

It's been at least a week since I've had to face this deeply unsettling feeling: Hoffman coming in to protect a two-run lead.

Walk the leadoff guy, of course. I should just go ahead and tell you what's going to happen from here.

He got the save?

He did...never without some drama, though: couple of walks, a SB, so the Rays had second and third with two out. A single would have tied it, but Diaz grounded out. Last night, with the Jays up 6-1, they ran Hoffman out for the 9th (he hadn't pitched in two or three days); he managed to bring the tying run into the on-deck circle, but got out of that too.

Tried to game everything out and couldn't--looks like the Jays could end up playing anyone except New York or Seattle if they don't win the division. (Could they end up with the Red Sox?)

If they’re the No.2 team in the East then I think they would?

I guess what I'm asking is, can two teams from the same division face each other in the WC round? I should know the answer but don't offhand.

Yes happened in 2021

Thanks...you can tell how optimistic I am right now re winning the division.

Yankees have already won? Jesus...Kirk's mired in a horrible slump and worn out; I would have given Heineman the start today. Anyway, up 2-0.

Yet another (probably) correct challenge lost.

Agree with both things Schulman and Martinez brought up: 1) the review umpire in NY shouldn't know what the call on the field was; 2) he shouldn't be an umpire, ruling on a call made by another umpire.

Vlad's disappearing act down the stretch painful to watch.

Vlad looked horrible in that at-bat.

Re:umpiring changes, I don't think it will happen. How do you prevent the replay ump from knowing the call? Take away his cell phone? Even Dan and Buck noted that it would be hard to enforce. And I can't see a non-ump having authority over professional umps on-field calls. That's kind of insulting, no matter the profession.

Buck did specify someone who knows the game really well...Maybe that one's too much, but I do think the first idea would be relatively easy to enforce, even if a little medieval (so yeah, no cell phone).

At least the balls and strikes calls have been ... generous to the Jays today.

Who is Justin Bruhl? Is this really a good time to find out?

Yay, Justin Bruihl--longtime fan, love the guy.

In the event the Jays lose tomorrow and the Yankees win, I won't be that upset (unless it's a Hoffman special). They'll have taken two out of three from the Rays; they didn't fold up. If the Yankees sweep, they won it, the Jays didn't lose it.

Will be down there with Thermo--as I posted on FB, it'll be the most consequential game I've ever attended in person.

Awesome! Yeah, I think it's the most important Jays game since 2016. They may have made the playoffs since then (and lost every game), but in terms of championship odds, the difference between playing in the WC round (without Gausman) and getting a bye is huge for their chances. That makes today's game more important than any of the wild card games they played in during the last few years.

yup. i went to a playoff game back in 2016 with my best friend, who has since passed away; so feeling especially excited/anxious for (not so much today, as they've made the playoffs either way) the playoff tickets my partner has secured.

This might go down in Jays history as the Alejandro Kirk Game.

What a game

Gotta feel good about your post-season odds playing game 162 like that

To what extent does your life revolve around Alejandro Kirk?

Much more as of today

I'll post some video tomorrow--recorded the last out, with nobody popping up in front of me this time--but all in all, an awesome day.

https://i.postimg.cc/Jn91sh6M/IMG-5291.jpg

Would like to revisit my suggestion at 3:41 yesterday afternoon: "Kirk's mired in a horrible slump and worn out; I would have given Heineman the start today." Followed by three HR and a double over the next 25 hours.

now traSH TALK VLAD

He's the worst. Hoffman too--they can't do anything right. Sit them down!

These are some die-hard Kirk supporters I can get on-board with. You're beaming in that photo Clemenza

Lovely pic, I’m very amused by the drunk posts by Thermo. “now trASH TALK VLAD” has sent me. I thought of you both when I checked the score and saw the Rays had pulled it back to 4-6, must have been tense for a while there. At least you got to see Kirk run the bases on his little legs twice. Thinking of the Jays fan I met on the plane to Ireland in August, he must have been beside himself!

It was definitely disappointing when the Rays came back with four against Gausman...Kirk is a big teddy bear; he was already popular, but I think after yesterday he joins Moseby and Edwin and a few others as the most beloved Jays ever.

Final out yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c95pY4rTfCg

handsome lads! that place must've been nuts

clem nearly tumbled down the 500 level stairs!

lool amazing

did you look up george's hazel interview? it was funny

oh i guess you would've heard it!

Embarrassing but true--when Kirk hit his grand slam, I jumped, fell sideways, and banged up against the guard railing...which was the second time in 90 minutes I had rammed into something metal (walking to the game, I walked right into a curbside bike-stand). Getting close to that point where leaving the house is dangerous.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2IAHebzLm4

<3 <3 <3

Blue Jays MVP no question, and to think at the start of his contract I thought he'd be a drag on us by this year

clem you are taking it for the team

Jays have intrasquad games today and tomorrow, ticket money ($10) to charity; I know one of the other byes is doing the same...Is that a new thing? I don't remember that 10 years ago when the Jays were last in.

10 years ago there wasn't an almost week long break like there is now for teams that have a first round bye. I guess it makes sense to do this kind of thing just to stay sharp.

I think it's a great idea--if I were still in the city and able to, I'd go for sure.

That’s v cool!

Vintage Schneider: Varland starting, Santander back in right field, Barger at third. Definitely what you'd designate as a player's manager.

I hate Santander in the field so much. There’s no way we’re not better off with springer out there.

Had the Fan on for four hours today driving to and from Toronto--couldn't get enough of Vlad and Ortiz (or references to it: Leafs Talk began with the guy saying "And daaaaaaaa Canadiens lose"). Blair pointed out that Vlad will be living that down for the duration of his contract, but today, worth it.

I'm amazed that the Jays got through that series without needing a closer. Hoffman pitched 2.1 innings, wasn't particularly effective--two hits, a walk, and a run--and had to deal with exactly two crucial AB, when he ended the 8th last night. That can't possibly happen again, and that's still the elephant in the room.

https://athlonsports.com/mlb/toronto-blue-jays/blue-jays-facing-anthony-santander-decision-after-bo-bichette-update

Right now, I would take Straw over Santander without a second's hesitation.

we don't need Bruihl

absolute shit show trying to get tickets to the alcs

Assume Max swaps out for Bruihl, and maybe Bassitt for Nance. Good luck--content to watch at home.

absolute shit show trying to get tickets to the alcs

Yeah, I tried getting tickets to the second game yesterday morning, I got into the "waiting room" on ticketmaster before the sale started, ended up being 35000th in line, by the time I got to buy tickets, all tickets were obviously already sold and there were already a bunch of resale tickets available. I feel like if there weren't so many people buying tickets just to resell I would have had a shot. Fucking Ticketmaster.

Buck thinks Santander had a good series. His bar sure must have been low--the deep counts were useful, and good swings are nice as far at they go, but good is pretty generous.

Things you were shockingly old when you re-learned (you used to know these things, then a lot of time passed and you forgot): caring about the fate of a baseball team is incredibly time-consuming. I'm almost at my saturation point before the ALCS has even started.

Will Bassitt pitch again or is he donezo?

Slated to pitch the bottom of the 17th for the Tigers.

(Real answer: probably yes, I think.)

A lot of posts in this thread haven't aged well (especially Feb-Apr).

I can laugh about those posts now but I'm glad we captured our feelings as they were. What a ride this has been.

Start with the thread title! I probably win honours as Mr. Negativity--towards Vlad, Hoffman, Schneider, front office, on and on. So utterly improbable where we are.

Joey Bats is milling about the field, talking up everyone. And love listening to Pillar in the booth.

Possibly a controversial opinion - Springers home run was the second biggest home run in Jays history.

Ahead of bat flip but behind Joe Carter

ya. thinking is:

Joe Carter – home run wins the world series.
Springer Dinger – puts the Jays ahead in the decisive ALCS game, sending them to the world series.
The Bat flip – put the Jays ahead in the decisive ALDS game, sending them to the ALCS.
Alomar - tied game in the 9th, allowing them to go on to win ALCS game 4, allowing them to go onto the world series.
Sprague - put the Jays ahead in game 2 of the world series, allowing them go on to win it all
Edwin - walked off the single-game wild card game, allowing them to go onto the ALDS

can't argue, based on stakes/results

but man, the bat flip (and the ridiculousness of that entire inning)

I always make the same point. Carter's was indisputably the most important in terms of what the team gained from it: a WS win, the second the ball left the ballpark, whereas all the others were events along a path to a potential WS win. They're prelude, Carter's is the thing itself.

But if the Jays had lost the Carter game, it wasn't the end of the world--they would have come back the next day with another chance to win the WS. And it would have been their second one in a row; to have not won the WS that year would have been disappointing, of course, but we'd just won one.

For pure catharsis, Bautista and now Springer stand alone at the top for me. If they lose those games, that's it--end of season, no WS. And 2015 and 2025 happen after many years of frustration. I totally get putting Carter at the top, but I know I my own reaction to Bautista and Springer was something more visceral, something deeper than just jubilation.

(And yes, there indeed was no WS in 2015--but that doesn't change anything for me.)

Alomar's and Sprague's (and you could almost throw in Gimenez's HR in G3 and G4) were ones that happened at a point where it felt like, "That's it, another year down the drain"--they turned series around. I don't know what Edwin's was: thrilling, for sure, but different from all the others. (Winning a WC playoff is still a long way from a WS, plus 2016 was still in the shadow of Bautista's.)

Those are good points clemenza - in terms of catharsis Bautista maybe tops

I pretty much agree with all this. FWIW, according to B-R's championship win probability added, Springer's HR was the most important hit in championship series history. That HR alone added 19.73% to the Jays' probability of winning the WS. Bautista's HR was worth "only" 8.64% (earlier round in the playoffs, and in a tie game). Sprague's HR, perhaps surprisingly, was 21.28%. Carter -- 30.28%.

But if we're talking about "catharsis", then Bautista is ahead of Springer, at least for now, for me. The 22-year wait, the comeback from 2-0 down in the series, and that G5 was so intense and so crazy. There's a reason non-Jays fans still remember it.

I think the M's-Jays series was basically a coin flip. If the Jays had lost, it would have been disappointing for sure, but the M's are great, they were peaking at the right time, had their own demons to slay, etc. However, I did NOT want to lose to the Rangers.

for catharsis, the Bat flip was def huge. i'd put Alomar's home run off Eckersley high up there too on the catharsometer.
that was a jays team that seem doomed to fall short, no matter how good they were in the regular season. 85, 87, 91 - all great teams that just could not advance at all in the playoffs. and then going up against Oakland, that had *dominated* the league 3 of the last 4 years; and here's Eckersley, having his cy young season, about to secure game two for them... the odds felt insurmountable. and then Alomar hits that ball out. it's hard to explain how it felt at the time. like announcing they were not going to just lie down this time; that they could get to the best of the best and if they could get to Eckersley in 1992, they could do anything.

One other thing that has absolute zero bearing on anything but I think means something in how you experience the moment: the home run itself. Carter's HR was like a preview of McGwire's 62nd: weirdly flat and just cleared the LF fence. Springer's and (especially) Bautista's were mammoth. I don't know how long Bautista's was--I've certainly seen longer HR, from Reggie in the '71 ASG to Shohei last week. But it felt like the most violent HR I'd ever seen. Something about the swing Bautista put on the ball, and the way he froze for a split-second before flipping the bat.

Probably the most bad-ass AB I’ve ever seen

Carter -- 30.28%.

I guess that's a before-and-after calculation? Jays were 100% after Carter's HR, and the 30.28% is the difference between what they were before. That seems a little off to me, if that's the case; they were 70% to win before the HR? Down 6-5 in the 9th, runners on first and second, one out, up 3-2 in the series...yeah, maybe that's reasonable. Pretty decent chance to at least tie, and G7 would have been at home.

Yes, that's correct (check the series win probability chart).

Thermo -- I always associate Alomar's HR with a comeback too. In fact, they were up 2-1 in the series, and his HR capped a five run comeback in the late innings. But it only tied the game, they went on to win in extras.

For the longest time, I thought they were trailing 2-1 in the series and Alomar saved them from going down 3-1. In fact, they went up 3-1 after that game. Instead of the series being tied, with momentum swinging back to A's (who were a juggernaut in those days), the Jays took a commanding 3-1 lead and rode that momentum into the WS.

OTOH, Sprague's HR took them from 4-3 down to a 5-4 lead. Rather than going down 2-0 in the series to the Braves,after Henke shut the door in the bottom of the inning, the series was tied. So Sprague's HR was a huge swing, I think it's not appreciated as much as the others because he was sort of a duck and didn't really like playing in Toronto.
thw series was tied,

Sorry for the garbled text, I shouldn't write long posts on my phone.

I'll check when I figure out how, but I've got to believe the two Gimenez HRs score well by this metric--they were very much in danger of going down 3-0 when he hit the first one.

Not so much, they were down two games, so one HR isn't enough to flip the series. Plus it was only the third inning and it tied the game -- winning G3 was far from guaranteed.

Don't have a good 2026 thread title, so I'll post here...Cease's 2025 does indeed look better the more you investigate. 1) There's a piece on mlb.com that says "only seven pitchers received less fielding support than he did," and 2) the same piece highlights an early-season start where he gave up nine runs in four innings. Take away that, and two other starts where he gave up six, and his ERA was 3.76 in his other 29 starts. Still not great, but he gave up two or fewer runs in 17/32 starts.

"making a *Caese* for the 2026 Blue Jays"?!

"Dylan's Best Since Blood on the the Tracks!" The 2026 Toronto Blue Jays"...Too rock-criticky, I know.

The Freewheelin' Cease, Dylan

Pessimist Ceasefire: Your 2026 bloody amazing Blue Jays who can do no wrong, ever

Tempted to say that the Dodgers are teaching teams one way to approach the post-season--above all else, make sure your top four starters are healthy and ready to go just in time for the playoffs--but, uh, that only works if you have the payroll to assemble these four starters.
― clemenza, Tuesday, October 28, 2025

yeah I'm not convinced there's a lesson there, kind of reminds me of when Miami assembled the Heatles and the whole league was like "we'll just put together our own Big 3 and fill in the blanks" - turns out one major major piece of the puzzle was having LeBron James
― frogbs, Tuesday, October 28, 2025

The Jays don't have Dodger money, but they do have a lot--they may indeed be trying a slightly downscale version of this.

Thought this was great:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9mEqISxTzY

Yeah, I loved that. I'll probably donate too!

GO BACK TO YOUR SUNSHINE AND TRAFFIC!

(Toronto being a city where traffic is completely a non-issue, of course.)

Kent is the now the 13th Jay in the HOF--eight via the writers, five via the VC:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TOR/hof.shtml

He started his career here for all of five months in '92, but in a roundabout way, one of the most important players in franchise history: he was more or less traded straight up to the Mets for David Cone (plus Ryan Thompson, the player-to-be-named-later), easily the most important move in the season the Jays finally won a WS.

May buy 50 of these and set them on fire like they did with Beatles records.

https://i.postimg.cc/qqKNPfPq/keychain.jpg