2025 Awards

I know some people hate them--or at least protracted arguments about them--so, after lots of Judge/Raleigh discussion dominating the general regular-season thread the past few days, here's a separate one. Jayson Stark posted his picks today:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6663004/2025/09/26/mlb-awards-2025-mvp-cy-young-rookies/

Judge, Ohtani (he can't say as a voter, but obviously), Skubal, Skenes.

I don't have much regard for Stark based on the one book of his I read, so I'm not posting to say "See, he picked Judge." Something from his long explanation:

The catcher for the Mariners isn’t the only man in this debate who’s making history.

I don’t know if it’s hit you yet that Aaron Judge is having another one of those seasons. It’s easier to lock in on when all you have to do is count home runs. But just because Judge isn’t going to make that kind of history this year, we shouldn’t overlook the staggering season he is having, while reviving his team from an August funk and leading it back to October.

Unless something weird happens this weekend, he’s going to lead his league in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, runs scored, total bases, walks, most times on base, Win Probability Added and wins above replacement. Does that seem good?

Here’s how good it is. The MVP award has existed, in its present form, since 1931. If Judge wins, this will be the complete list of players who have led either league in all those categories in a season since 1931:

Ted Williams, 1942
Ted Williams, 1947
Aaron Judge, 2025

A Rube Goldberg list: stuff that most fans are cognizant of (the three slash stats, maybe WAR by now) and stuff that very few ever think about (me included--Win Probability Added). So I'm not sure that's much of an argument. This is a better one, I think:

Check out the distance between him and the next best hitters in his league in the three categories that define the greatness of modern hitters: OBP, slugging percentage and OPS.

OBP — by 63* points (over George Springer).
Slugging percentage — by 83* points (over Raleigh).
OPS — by 177* points (over Raleigh).

(*through Wednesday)

What a landslide. Or is that three landslides? Again, let’s go back to 1931, when the MVP was born. Here are all the hitters in the 95 seasons since then who have led their league in OBP by 50-plus points, in slugging by 80-plus points and in OPS by at least 100 points:

Ted Williams, four times (1941-42-47-49)
Barry Bonds, four times (2001-02-03-04)

Only problem there is redundancy, in that the third category is derived from the first two.

And I agree with this:

There are no wrong answers in this debate! I wish I could cast this imaginary vote for the catcher for the Mariners. But it’s not an insult to Raleigh to say he finished second to the greatest right-handed hitter of the last 100 years: Aaron J. Judge.

Whoever wins, I think you can absolutely say something that isn't always true of MVPs who play for playoff-bound teams: without them, no way either team makes the postseason.

judge has been on a tear to close it out. 2-4 today with another homer, up to 53 now. think it’s his unless raleigh can find a way to hit 3 homers in the last 2 games

The replacement level broadcasters Apple has working for them were saying Raleigh should be the mvp because home runs and catcher. Switched to the radio feed.

I just posted about how Vlad's done close to nothing the past week (one big hit)...I know it's a completely unfair comparison, but I look at what Judge is doing during crunch time and I just sigh.

I mean, I think I'd settle for half what Judge has done the past week.

Ha--Posnanski's "Choose Your Own Adventure" MVP game (hope the link works):

https://judge-vs-raleigh.netlify.app/?utm_source=www.joeposnanski.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=an-mvp-choose-your-own-adventure-game&_bhlid=b01095e60e7c30f2cba52cf258ed5f454cfbe6bd#q1=0&q2=1&q3=1&q4=4&q5=1&q6=0

You answer six questions to find out who your AL MVP pick is.

Your MVP: Aaron Judge by an inch.

Inch I could do without! Head vs. Heart dilemma this one

I got "Aaron Judge comfortably", although my true feelings are somewhat different.

Two important points in the case for Raleigh:

1) catcher contributions are never fully captured by WAR
2) if a player accomplishes something that no player **at his position** has ever done in a century and a half of organized major league baseball, then it's worth extra considerations when it comes to awards season

I'm not saying that I would definitely vote for Raleigh or that Judge isn't making history of his own, but Raleigh has a *very* strong case.

could you say more when you say catcher contributions are never fully captured by WAR?

I think that many catching skills aren't properly accounted for, such as pitch calling, controlling the pace of the game, working with pitchers, directing the defense, managing the running gane, and plays at home. Not to mention pitch framing.

Catchers also don't play every day (unless they DH) which creates an inherent bias for giving out awards based on cumulative stats. It doesn't seem right that a player at the most important defensive position can't win an MVP because he's limited to about 130 games.

not playing every day limits your value though. you can’t help your team if you’re on the bench. I don’t think it’s quite right to term that a “bias”, it’s just reflecting reality. value is cumulative. this is why a lot of promising catchers end up changing positions when they’re younger (biggio and harper are two examples but there are many). the overall talent pool of the position is sapped a bit because of that.

I do take the argument that there are skills unique to catchers, but they are not really measurable (apart from pitch framing, the precision of which is a bit controversial), so I think you just have to assume rough equality across catchers even though it’s surely not the case. but I don’t know how you’d account for that, aside from increasing the positional adjustment, which is already 67% higher than the next most difficult position.

I’m not *not* open to the idea that the positional adjustment should be greater. it’s just not something I’ve seen mentioned a lot by people outside this board

I'm not saying there should be a larger, arbitrary positional adjustment. I think that WAR doesn't account for a catcher's full contributions toward winning games. I'm not sure how to quantify it, but those skills are integral to the game, so they must have value.

we’re saying the same thing I think. if there is value there that can’t be measured, and it’s specific to catchers, then it stands to reason all catchers should get a boost in positional adjustment

I just am not sure that the +12.5 positional adjustment is inadequate. maybe it is and maybe it isn’t. I’d love to read something where someone who’s studied this explains their thoughts

alright, I understood about half of this, but jeff zimmerman went through this about 10 years ago, and his main conclusion was that the historical defensive hierarchy is essentially right, but too extreme. he lands at about +8 runs per 162 (instead of +12.5 as it is now) for catchers and -9 for 1B/DH (compared to -12.5 and -17.5; the discussion about DHs being over-penalized is interesting and basically comes down to [1] it's hard to hit well when you're not playing the field, similar to pinch-hitting and [2] a lot of the DH offensive data is skewed by players underperforming due to being assigned to play DH when they're not completely healthy)

https://tht.fangraphs.com/re-examining-wars-defensive-spectrum/

I do take the argument that there are skills unique to catchers, but they are not really measurable

I got "Aaron Judge comfortably", although my true feelings are somewhat different.

Exactly the same. I didn't minimize catcher defense, pitch framing, or "who's got the best story?" when I answered; I came down in the middle on all of them, and I thought I'd register as "leaning Judge." Must be something about the way the scoring was designed.

2) if a player accomplishes something that no player **at his position** has ever done in a century and a half of organized major league baseball, then it's worth extra considerations when it comes to awards season

A little, maybe; that's a big reason why Maury Wills won in '62 (when Mays, Aaron, and Robinson were having huge seasons), and I also think it had something to do with Willie Hernandez winning in '84. I checked back and my memory was right: he was 32/32 in save opportunities until Sept. 28, when he blew his first and only one of the whole season. I think the notion of perfection had been cemented in voter's minds by then (I remember hearing it a lot) and that that helped him win. I'm guessing you can find all kinds of uniqueness in Judge's season, too, starting with no batting champion having ever hit 53 home runs.

to add to what kevin said, iirc fangraphs went and re-evaluated fWAR for framing about 10 years go and a lot of catchers values shifted, mostly positively (and some cases dramatically) as they felt it had been undervalued up until then.

so, for example, Russ Martin - who i know fangraphs loved - has a career WAR that is 16 points higher with them vs bbref.
in Raleigh's case this year, bWAR is 7.3 and fWAR is 9. pretty big gap.

Martin's corrections were for pitch framing IIRC. But that's just one skill.

One precedent for Raleigh winning would be Eric Gagne's Cy Young award from 2003. He wasn't the best pitcher in the league but he had (arguably) the most dominant season ever by a closer, and that's why he won. If you want to devalue closers in general then that's fine, there's no real counter to that. But it's a "position" and being historically great at that position for a season counts for something (obviously it's a lot more significant when it's a catcher).

I think that’s pretty instructive as an example, vis a vis the “bias” against catchers. everyone has different criteria! to me, if you’re a closer, or a catcher, you don’t get special credit because you play part time

Mike Marshall won a Cy Young almost wholly for a unique accomplishment (and still a record).

I’m very drunk. Help me out and tell me what that record was

Pitched in 106 games. Otherwise, 2.42, 21 saves, 15-12 (!), and 3.1 WAR.

Science-fiction from the vantage point of 2025.

so most games.

but best season ever for a reliever? I TTHINK NOT!

That's what I'm saying--you're very drunk--it wasn't an especially distinguished season outside of the freakish number of games.

Silver Slugger:

https://www.mlb.com/news/silver-slugger-finalists-2025

I thought Kirk might be a finalist, but he did tail off quite a bit the last month (until the final weekend).

(Checking, it was more like a prolonged slide the second half, but I think he was still hitting .300 into September.)

Cal Raleigh - Sporting News MLB Player of the Year Award, voted on by his peers (ie, not a bunch of chin-stroking writers).

1) Cal Raleigh - 142 votes (46% of the MLB players vote)
2) Aaron Judge - 84 votes (27%)
3) Shohei Ohtani - 34 votes (11%)

“Being a catcher is at the heart of the argument. I mean, you're trying to essentially keep a group of pitchers from going insane and keeping them light calling a game. They're all different. And you're getting beat up back there. I mean, you're constantly taking balls off to the thigh, inner thigh, off the shoulder from foul balls, and then trying to go hit.”

-Austin Riley (ATL 3B) on his vote.

"As a switch (hitter), he's essentially two hitters, having to keep both swings dialed in. He might have to hit one way or the other, depending on the game situation, and to be able to do it is pretty remarkable. I have a hard time getting one side right. Being able to keep both sides right all year, and doing that damage on the type of pitching that you're seeing in the game today is really, really cool.

Doing it all in a pitcher's park is one thing, then adding on all the extra travel involved with playing for Seattle, it wears you down."

-Dansby Swanson (CHC SS) on his vote

“He works extremely hard at his craft, offensively and defensively. The numbers are ultra respectable … You talk about consistency with this guy. It’s been really, really special to watch.”

-Mitch Garver (SEA's official benchwarmer of the ALCS)

“I think the leadership he has shown in the clubhouse, and some of those things that have developed again is another big change for him, and it's been outstanding to see. So yes, what he is doing is historic and unbelievable, but he's doing it and doing other things around that as well.”

Dan Wilson (SEA manager who wakes up every hour nightly in cold sweats thinking about not pinch-hitting for Leo Rivas and also why he rostered 3 catchers in the ALCS only to leave 2 of them on the bench for the bulk of the 7 game series which he lost by one run.)

The very worst HOF inductees were usually voted in by VC players, not writers. "Harold Baines was the ultimate gamer" -- I just made that up.

The truth was actually worse. “He got RBIs” was one literal reason given

Anyway, I definitely don't want to revive this argument, least of all tonight. Raleigh's a fine choice, but I think giving the players extra credit here is a little self-serving when you're lobbying hard for Raleigh to win.

The truth was actually worse. “He got RBIs” was one literal reason given

you might be on to something!

2025 RBIs
CR: #3
AJ: #5
OS: #14

the defense rests.

https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2025/10/23/the-2025-fielding-bible-awards-winners/

Yay, Ernie.

The truth was actually worse. “He got RBIs” was one literal reason given

those guys who average 22 homers and 93 RBIs per 162 games over a career don’t grow on trees

Actually, it was a little lazy for me to single out Harold. The really bad VC choices were a bunch of guys from the '30s who shouldn't be in the HOF--the Fred Lindstrom crew.

I do think Baines is a crazy choice, another representative from the ‘80s who lingered for a long time to put up enough counting stats despite never having a single truly incredible season. I think that’s one of the particular strange legacies of that time - so many of the actual best players didn’t get the career counting stats which typically qualifies for the HOF, so a lot of the great players we remember are on the outside looking in. Murphy, Mattingly, Stieb, Gooden, Hershiser, Clark, Saberhagen, etc. Plus Whitaker or Evans, who did actually put up the counting stats too.

AL GG:
c - The Dingler
1b - Ty France
2b - Marcus Semien
3b - Maikel Garcia
ss - Bobby Witt Jr.
lf - Steven Kwan LF
cf - Ceddanne Rafaela CF
rf - Wilyer Abreu RF
p - Max Fried
utl - Mauricio Dubón

NL GG:
c - Patrick Bailey
1b - Matt Olson
2b - Nico Hoerner
3b - Ke'Bryan Hayes
ss - Masyn Winn
lf - Ian Happ
cf - Pete Crow-Armstrong
rf - Fernando Tatís Jr
p - Logan Webb
utl - Javier Sanoja

there's a few players up there i have a bit of a knowledge gap on; but the post-world-series-heartbreak jays fans are a little salty about the Clement snub

And what about the irony of the 1B pick after Vlad's series! Putting aside their bats, can you imagine sending out Ty France for late-inning defense?

Clement for 3B? I feel like I’ve been hearing about Garcia all year but agree Clement has been excellent.

Vlad’s metrics on savant were negative as they have always been, and his drs was fine but Ty France led the AL by about a mile on that (+9 over 976.2 innings versus +8 on 1126 innings). Honestly though it’s far less important than the bat for 1B, Keith Hernandez of all people was asked about Pete Alonso’s rating at 1B and he was essentially like “who gives a damn if he rakes,” which imo is the correct take!

Wasn't Clement up for a utility GG, just like the one he won last week from the Fielding Bible?

ya, he would have been UTL

As far as Vlad goes--and I know the post-season isn't part of it--I'm surprised his metrics are negative anywhere; he's usually solid, if not as spectacular as he was during the WS.

Yeah he does not grade out well on baseball savant at all, career negative (apart from his time at 3B late last season?!)

eyeball-wise he looks amazing at 1b; so it has to be something to do with range/positioning maybe? he at least appears to be quick on his feet, makes great/flashy catches and doesn't commit many errors (i don't think)

Your Cy Young finalists are:

AL

Hunter Brown
Garrett Crochet
Tarik Skubal

NL

Cristopher Sanchez
Paul Skenes
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

MVP finalists

AL

Aaron Judge
Cal Raleigh
Jose Ramirez

NL

Shohei Ohtani
Kyle Schwarber
Juan Soto

Rookie of the year finalists:

AL

Roman Anthony
Nick Kurtz
Jacob Wilson

NL

Drake Baldwin
Caleb Durbin
Cade Horton

And finally, manager of the year

AL

John Schneider
Stephen Vogt
Dan Wilson

NL

Terry Francona
Pat Murphy
Rob Thomson

Silver Sluggers:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-silver-slugger-award-winners

Glad Springer won (obvious DH pick). Jays fans will probably be upset about Kurtz over Vlad but, while I don't know how much weight GP is given for a Silver Slugger, it's impossible to make the case that Vlad was the better hitter. It's not close--Kurtz's 173 OPS+ was even higher than Vlad's near-MVP season in '21.

I don't know who else was out there, but Kyle Tucker strikes me as a weak pick for an outfielder, especially (assuming it's still a hitter's park) coming out of Wrigley.

Doesn't seem to be anymore...When did that happen? I need to catch up.

ROY vote totals:

https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-mlb-rookie-of-the-year-voting-totals

Guessing that, just in terms of offense, Kurtz had one of the 10 greatest rookie seasons ever.

FB immediately provided me with a handy little graphic to help answer this pressing question...third highest wRC+ this century.

https://i.postimg.cc/V6Y8Qb2L/wrc.jpg

So: maybe, maybe not.

I’m going to dash some cold water on that and suggest that his achievement would mean more if he’d actually been a qualified batter when he did it, like everyone else on the list. 112 games doesn’t stack up against 155+, sorry.

You'd have to eliminate five other guys off the list, including the #1: Alvarez (369 PA), Puig (432 PA), Braun (492 PA), Tatis (372 PA), and Ohtani (367 PA). (Kurtz had 445.)

Apologies didn’t realise the Yordan sample size was smaller (!) Judge putting up 171 WRC+ over a 155 game sample is more impressive imo.

Totally agree. I'll cut more slack for rookie seasons in general, though, because of the vagaries of when guys are brought up, make their way into the lineup, etc. Four other great full rookie seasons: Allen and Oliva in '64, Lynn in '75 (Fred--you may have heard of him), and McGwire in '87. All four of them, plus Judge and Trout, had partial time the year before--Oliva had two partial seasons. The only two who broke in cold and had a full qualifying season were Abreu and Pujols. With Kurtz and the other five non-qualifying rookie seasons, those were their also their first.

Guessing the same dynamic is at work with rookie pitchers--seems even more likely this century--that that almost none of them pitches 162 innings their first year. (Of course the one guy I checked did: Jose Fernandez threw 172 innings his rookie year, with no time up the season before.)

More typical of rookie pitchers this century, I would think: Alek Manoah (vaguely remember him), who pitched 111 innings in 2021 and finished 8th in ROY voting.

Bias conceded, but I thought Schneider should have won Manager of the Year ahead of Vogt. Basically only one thing that matters, I'd say: what was the general consensus about your team going into the season vs. where did you end up? Trying to find preseason odds...only thing I've found so far had the Guardians at +3500 to win the WS ("outside shot") vs. the Jays at +6000 ("long-shot"). I know the Guardians staged a phenomenal comeback, but that started with a losing record in the first half.

appreciate that kurtz, having done all that after being left off the opening-day roster, has, with his win, been awarded a full season of service time (thanks to the last CBA)

Fisher's gotta be so pissed

teams get something too, don't they? not sure i get whatever it is mlb is doing with this ROTY stuff

appreciate that kurtz, having done all that after being left off the opening-day roster, has, with his win, been awarded a full season of service time (thanks to the last CBA)

I believe we call that the Skenes

SkTWObal

https://i.imgur.com/2avV5rO.jpeg

Content not viewable in my region

The election marks the 16th time a National League pitcher has been unanimous in the voting. Skenes joins a list featuring Sandy Koufax three times (1963, ‘65-66), Greg Maddux twice (1994-95) and once each by Sandy Alcantara (2022), Clayton Kershaw (2014), Roy Halladay (2010), Jake Peavy (2007), Randy Johnson (2002), Orel Hershiser (1988), Gooden (1985), Rick Sutcliffe (1984), Steve Carlton (1972) and Bob Gibson (1968). The American League has had a unanimous winner 12 times: Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana and Justin Verlander twice each; Denny McLain, Ron Guidry, Gerrit Cole and Tarik Skubal once apiece.

Gooden should have won in '84, too--can't believe Sutcliffe won unanimously. (I mean, I can in the context of 1984.)

skubal was tied with 12 other pitchers for the major league lead with one (1) shutout

(no shade on him, that's just the way things are)

I saw 8% of all shutouts pitched in 2025. I get around.

I do wonder if this is just how things are going to stay - with shut outs / complete games being so rare - or if this trend will keep going further.

So wow did Cristopher Sanchez ever have himself a year. Dude was not on my radar at all in the spring.

Skenes is only the fifth pitcher to win a Cy in his second season, the others being Valenzuela, Gooden, Saberhagen, and Lincecum. Great if a bit "what could have been" type company.

(xposts) Maybe Yamamoto's postseason could reverse the trend a bit? I mean, is there anything especially superhuman about him that allows him to do something the sport has decided shouldn't be done?

On the other hand...I tried to use Gary Gentry on the grid this morning--wrong--and started reading up on him. If you don't recognize the name, he was the third starter on the '69 Mets behind Seaver and Koosman; in '72, the Mets decided to keep him and trade Nolan Ryan. Gentry pitched 230 innings as a 22-year-old rookie in '69, including 6 CG; by '71, he was 24 and had thrown 19 CG. From there (Wikipedia):

He would remain with the Mets for one more season, going 7–10 with a 4.01 ERA. Gentry was traded along with Danny Frisella from the Mets to the Atlanta Braves for Félix Millán and George Stone on November 1, 1972.

Gentry exited his June 5 (1973) start in the first inning due to right elbow soreness. He made his next start, but was pulled after the second inning and placed on the disabled list. He returned a month later, but after just two more appearances, his season was ended for good.

After surgery to have bone chips removed from his elbow, Gentry returned to the mound on April 30, 1974, pitching an inning of relief. He made two more appearances before his season was once again cut short, this time for tendon surgery. He made seven appearances with the Braves in 1975, playing his last game on May 6. The Braves placed him on waivers two days later. Gentry was then re-signed by the Mets, but after just one appearance at Double-A Jackson was he was released on June 19.

He retired at 28.

https://i.postimg.cc/d306gsTy/vogt.jpg

Come to think of it, yes, there's that too.

not at all!

vogt may or may not be a good manager, but it's his job to make the team do well, not monitor a handful of buried sliders so gamblers can make money

I don’t know how they originally found out - but not sure how Vogt would have had any responsibility for that. It’s not like he can be monitoring all his teams text messages, or launch a full investigation every time a player has an issue within random wildness or error etc

I disapprove of their choice, so I get to blame him for anything and everything.

(I think it was a terrible choice on the merits anyway.)

I disapprove of their choice, so I get to blame him for anything and everything.

✓

(by which i meant that i salute your stance even if i don't entirely agree with it)

Up to and including the government shutdown I might add.

Seriously: the guy who won took a division-winning 92-win team all the way to a division-winning 88-win team, and the guy who finished second took a 74-win last-place team to 94 wins and the best record in the league. He won because Cleveland had a bad enough first half that, combined with the Tigers' collapse, they staged a historic comeback. Which kind of reminds me of this kid I once gave Most Improved Student two years in a row, which got me wondering at the time if he intentionally tanked the first report card so he could ensure he was in the running for that every year.

that's fair, but it suggests that the entire premise of 'manager of the year' is bullshit

and i'm okay with that

That's certainly a fair argument, but the award does exist, so they ought to give it to the right person. Again, I think it's almost always been fairly straightforward expectations-vs.-results award. The voters just seemed blinded by Cleveland's big comeback, like Vogt was simultaneously responsible for the Tigers' 28-37 second half.

And just to completely undermine my own argument, Schneider was also the guy who managed the 74-win last-place team...Now I'm really embittered. Even logic has abandoned me.

oh no

The argument also could be made that he managed Cleveland to a successful season despite multiple players doing their best to fuck over the team for their own benefit.

That must have been very confusing for player-manager Pete Rose...

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1G1geZHGv7/

(Gooden congratulating Skenes--may or may not work.)

I think they got the right guy, but couldn't get much closer; all 30 first- and second-place votes. Thought Springer might finish 4th or 5th, but hard when he DH'd more than played the field.

Shohei is now 16th on this list: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/mvp_cya.shtml

Hypothetical: split 50/50 1st and 2nd place votes mean shared MVP? Only two votes of this reality!

Wonder how many more Ohtani has in him. Would love to see him break Bond's record. Unironically would be good for the game

off

So the managers of the year and MVPs are all back to back winners. I guess it would have been weird for rookie of the year to follow the trend

worthy winner obviously. RIP shasta and other voodoo practitioners

da catcher had a lot of homers lol

(drooling) da most homer evah

Omg be nice!

ha sorry shasta and other traditionalists I was being a homer and taking a gratuitous victory lap. two deserving winners

is manager of the year basically the moneyball award? will dave roberts ever win manager of the year again?

i mean, with that payroll, the expectations are pretty high.

coaching awards are basically the beating expectations award yeah

Except in the A.L. this year.

They decided to experiment with a controversial "psychically get the team ahead of you to collapse" formula.