2005 Rolling Fantasy Baseball Advice Thread

Lance Berkman
Barry Zito
Josh Beckett

How do yall see those three doing? Any word on Berkman's injury? Last I heard he was out until May or June...

1) Draft retired players
2) Draft NRIs
3) Don't bother with ace starting pitchers - they're too volatile; stick w/ rotation fillers and spot-starters for full rotational flexibility.
4) Always draft more than you need - why settle for 2 2B when you can have 14?
5) If you can't attend the draft, let someone that doesn't like you draft for you. If you're in a Yahoo! league, just sit back & let Yahoo!'s rankings lead you to victory!

1) Josh Beckett
2) Barry Zito
96) Lance Berkman

Don't talk to me about Lance Berkman, though - we have a "history".

ramon hernandez (no)
mark teixera (yes)
placido polanco (no)
khalil greene (no but considering it)
hank blalock (yes)
bobby abreau (yes)
lance berkman (most likely no)
brian giles (no)
hideki matsui (considering it)
josh beckett (considering it)
francisco cordero (no)
josh fogg (no)
jeff francis (no but i like him)
brett tomko (no)
david wells (no)
jake westbrook (no)
barry zito (considering it)
craig a wilson (no)
jeremy reed (no)
shannon stewart (no)
kaz matsui (no)
doug davis (no)

the minor leaguers i am keeping are:

rich harden
bj upton
david wright
bobby madritsch

i could try to trade for renteria (he's definitely available), but other than that, these are my options. honestly, i'd like to just keep three players as none of the rest of them seem particularly keeper-worthy (and i was one of the best teams last year!), but i have no clue who to take. possibly skewing my view: berkman and zito are the only two players who have always been on my team, so i feel a bit of loyalty to them. but certainly if i let berkman go i'll try to draft him again -- maybe in the third or fourth round.

so, help pls!

I traded Manny for Big Unit before the season, and I rocked all of ILBB's collective glutes (except for one of yall).

& are those the only minor leaguers you have on your roster? I dunno about BM...

I would love to join a $$$$ league, if only to give myself something to REALLY cry about.

And, yeah, Schilling was great, but my other starters were dongtastic (literally - I think I lead in HRs Allowed by a wiiiide margin).

and yeah, i have no choice with bm. but i think he'll be a solid if mediocre starter. i'm not expecting much from him. my other minor leaguers are ace, though.

also, david, next time there's an opening in my league, i'll nominate you. you'd fit in well.

1) Josh Beckett
2) Jake Westbrook
3) Hideki Matsui
4) Khalil Greene

... & either let everyone else screw or plot to pick them up again in the draft.

Having Blalock & Wright = NICE! Hope you have a DH spot.

xpost - yeah, I was just thinking that JW would be a guy you can sneak through waivers & pick back up. He is a question mark, given his performance level last year, the amount of work he did, the bullpen (eeeesh), but I think he's a risk worth taking. I feel the same way about Greene, though - I don't know what he's projected to do, & I'm not sure that his performance right before he broke himself is indicative of what he WILL do, but I'd think there are comparable SS folks out there that it's not worth using a key slot on him (unless you have no one else better).

I guess what I'm saying is - go w/ Godzilla.

xxpost - thanks!

i'm really going to miss this league this year.

always lots of good pitching pickups to be made on the waiver wires, though. weaver and carpenter really helped out quite a bit.

In my other now-defunct league ("defunct" = "exited stage left, w/ door hitting ass"), I grabbed Odalis Perez & Vincente Padilla off of waivers, back when that meant something. Of course, my roomy, not to be outdone, managed to snag both Zito AND Mulder way way back when they were rookies (and really good).

who are the nominees for this year's loiza? he doesn't quite qualify, but i think vazquez will have a big year.

Would it be too much or too obvious for me to think that Wade Miller could sneak up on folks? I think Odalis might surprise folks that were obsessed w/ his shitty W/L record. Oh, wait, here's a really goofy one - DEREK LOWE. Sure, he had an awful WHIP & ERA the last 2 years, and has allowed an inordinate number of hits, and the Dodgers are playing Jeff Kent & Jose Hernandez in their IF, but, y'know, Chavez Ravine's a pitcher's park. (Who's the LA pitching coach?)

Not-so-shocking true story: I was in the crapper a few days ago, & heard some Sox / Yankee fans talking shop, and the Sox fan was worried that they wouldn't be able to overcome Derek Lowe's departure. I almost jumped out of the stall, trou dropped, and gave him the business.

BRETT TOMKO.

How's Jerome Williams doing, health wise? I have a lingering stat-crush on him after his 2K3 cup of coffee. Also - JESSE FOPPERT. Also also - JOEL PINEIRO?

1 gave up a bloop single to Jason Grabowski on a full count
2 struck out Tom Wilson on a full count
3 nearly gets Hee Seop Choi to ground into a double play (fielders choice, Choi safe at 1st by a step) on 1 pitch
4 strikes out Orlando Saenz on 5 pitches (AJ Pierzynski drops the 3rd strike and has to rifle it over to Feliz).

His winter league stats as mentioned above are mixed: 6.08 ERA for Manati in the PR League in 23.2 innings with a 23:8 K:BB ratio (which at one point was 19:1).

Jaret Wright
Carl Pavano-- Less likely than Wright, but still he has only been a good starter for a year and a half.

I'd like to get Matsui on my team as he is very consistent and plays every day. Godzilla has also improved both years in the USA, so if he is going to have a bust out season, this might be the year.

Johnson Randy
Santana Johan
Schmidt Jason
Schilling Curt
Sheets Ben
Martinez Pedro
Oswalt Roy
Prior Mark
Zambrano Carlos
Clement Matt

Jaret Wright is definitely in line to be this year's Loaiza, if you're talking about last year's Loaiza.

-- Jams Murphy (ystrickle...), February 9th, 2005 9:38 AM. (ystrickler)

Very interesting that PECOTA didn't include either of Oakland's former "TWO BEST PITCHERS IN BASEBALL OMG HOW COULD HE DO THIS TO US?!?!?!?!?!!" in their top 10 list, in spite of both going from the AL to NL.

but dear god i want derek lowe to have a fantastic year in l.a., he has been my favorite red sock of the past 5 years. i hope he wins the nl cy young, it will make me feel better about taking him too early in my fantasy drafts for the last 4 years.

I'm really excited to start following A's games this year.

abreau
beckett
blalock
matsui
teixera

minors:
david wright
bj upton
bobby madritsch
rich harden

as for cordero, i agree that saves are easy to come by. yet based on how my league does points, he ended up being the fourth overall pitcher last year, and his numbers are good: not a lot of walks, etc. and as danny kolb proved last year, the quality of the team you play for doesn't mean all that much when it comes to saves...

I loathe saves as a fantasy stat (aside from the usual SABR-fueled arguments), because it's the one place where I get the shaft (besides, y'know, FIELDING PERCENTAGE) - I either forget about drafting a closer until it's too late, or I draft a closer that gets hurt (HI EDDIE G!), and I end up having to rely on Rocky Biddle & my mom to GET ONE SAVE while some owner that hasn't checked his team since February has THIRTEEN save guys riding virtual pine & someone else decides to collect would-be closing candidates off the waiver-wire like they're Lladro statuettes.

K. Bobby Abreeu (OF)
K. Hideki Matsui (OF)
K. Josh Beckett (P)
K. Mark Teixiera (1B)
K. Hank Blalock (3B)
K. Rich Harden (P)
K. Bobby Madritsch (P)
K. David Wright (3B)
K. BJ Upton (SS)

And now the draft:

01 Adam Dunn (OF)
02 Javier Vazquez (P)
03 Francisco Cordero (P)
04 Khalil Greene (SS)
05 Bret Boone (2B)
06 Brandon Inge (C)
07 Larry Walker (OF)
08 Derek Lowe (P)
09 Chad Cordero (P)
10 Craig Wilson (1B/OF/3B)
11 Woody Williams (P)
12 Jeff Francis (P)
13 Wily Mo Pena (OF)
14 Dan Meyer (P)
15 Mike Adams (P)
16 Ian Stewart (3B)
17 Joel Guzman (SS)
18 Chris Capuano (P)

Guys I regret taking: Inge and Boone. But for their positions and considering the round, they were solid picks I thought. Worst pick: Kelvim Escobar went #9 overall.

C Inge
1B Teixiera
2B Boone
SS Greene
3B Blalock
CI Wilson
OF Abreu
OF Matsui
OF Dunn
DH Walker or Pena
P Beckett
P Harden
P Madritsch
P Vazquez
P Cordero
P Lowe
P Cordero
P Williams

Definite keepers: Bobby Abreu, Albert Pujols

other than that, serious possibilities:
3B - Miguel Carbrera
SS - Jimmy Rollins
Rafael Furcal
OF - JD Drew
Brian Giles
UT - Travis Hafner
P - Isringhausen
Livan Hernandez
John Smoltz (I doubt he's worth it as a starter)
Odalis Perez
AJ Burnett
Roy Halladay (bounce-back?)

in the minors I have (and get to keep) Dallas McPherson, Jeff Francoeur, Josh Barfield and Scott Kazmir

Should I go with Drew (knees and all) and Cabrera and pray some pitching falls to me, or go with a fairly safe bet in Isringhausen for one of them? I'm leaning toward the former, having a mediocre staff (Javier Vazquez and Halladay my top two pitchers taken, ugh) didn't kill me.

If you're set on RI, bench Sweeney until Casey turns back into a brick of cheese, as Casey's in a much much better lineup. (OK, not that much, but still, better.)

Milo - I'd let Izzy rot in his overrated "OOOH SAVES" hell, and keep Rollins & Cabrera.

Oof, you know, their BA and OBPs are actually comparable, but the SLUG is clearly in favor of Sweeney. DAVE IS ALWAYS RIGHT.

Right now I'm looking over rosters and thinking about possible trades. As I mentioned on the other thread, I don't have a proper closer right now, and I'm open for trading to acquire one. Now, I could open the season without a closer and pick up the odd save here and there from my middle relievers. The worst case scenario is that I throw in the towel completely vis a vis the saves category and count on my team to deliver in other categories.

Is this an unreasonable strategy? To what extent of madness is a strategy that involves intentionally tanking a certain category?

On one hand, if I tank one category then I possibly need to finish near the top of the league in one or two other categories in order to balance out that big weakness.

OTOH, league-wide almost every team will be very weak in certain categories. Suppose my weakness happens to be saves. That's OK as long as the other teams are also exceedingly weak in at least one category.

?

One might think the best situation would be to have an insurmountable lead in a category (a COUNTING category, natch, like HRs) sometime in late June, & then trade someone helping you out there to someone that can help you out in a lacking category (like SAVES). And even then, you're in deep doo-doo if, for instance, your HR lead evaporates when EVERYONE on your team browns out.

If you can trade for a player that'll help you out w/out taking yourself out @ the knees in other categories, & you can do it early in the season, then I'd say go for it. Try not to punt a category, if it can be helped - my blech finishes in previous leagues are proof of what happens when you do the category punting (and your team sucks).

VLAD
A. RAMIREZ
ICHIRO
RENTERIA
J. LOPEZ

NO PITCHERS, I DIDN'T HAVE ANY WORTH KEEPING. I GET THE 7TH PICK.

Interesting that you kept Renteria, given his kinda meh performance last year (counting stats notwithstanding) - was that a homer pick, or a hope that he'll get all 2003 in the Red Sox lineup?

1. ss are few and faw between in my league. or at least ones that produce.

2. he's on the red sox...i went with my heart. always a bad fantasy move.

3. with this years sox lineup his ceiling is too high to not keep.

i kept him over gagne and matsui. but gagne's balky knee worried me. and obviously i prefer to have no YANKEES on my team.

The league I won last year, I had two closers plus the chump who started out with a bunch of saves for the Giants before he went all to hell.

I've always been up there in saves, and I've always finished in the top 4 because I RULE THE ILB ROOST.

Yeah, this is why I'm leaning toward doing nothing until opening day. Outside of the top 6-7 guys, you never know which closers will turn to shit and get demoted to long relief by June. That happens every year.

Milo OTM of course, provided you do happen to have one of those top 6-7 closers.

so, i suggested that we switch to rotisserie to hopefully keep things more competitive until the end. also, it's a yahoo league, so it's not keeper or anything. based on the way the teams look right now, it should be pretty even...

my team looks like this:
C Ramon Hernandez
1B Adam Dunn
2B Tadahito Iguchi (this seems pretty risky to me - maybe it will work out?)
3B David Wright
SS Orlando Cabrera
OF Vlad Guerrero
OF Juan Pierre
OF Aaron Rowand
UT Justin Morneau
B Mark Kotsay OF
B Rocco Baldelli OF (thinking of dropping him in favor of gavin floyd for the first few weeks)
B Aaron Miles 2B (i think he can pick up the slack if Iguchi is a bust)
B Ty Wigginton (1B, 2B, 3B eligable)

SP Ben Sheets
SP AJ Burnett
SP Matt Clement
SP Dontrelle Willis
SP Woody Williams (hoping Petco is the fountain of youth)
RP Billy Wagner
RP Ryan Madsen
RP Julian Tavarez

i'm also hoping to keep an eye on the waiver wire for one of the closers that invariably crops up after a month or so.

T/S: BHK as closer vs. Gavin Floyd as 5th starter until Padilla heals?

Mar 31 The Rockies traded pitching prospect Chris Narveson and catcher Charles Johnson to the Red Sox in exchange for relief pitcher Byung-Hyun Kim. The Red Sox immediately released Johnson and sent the 23-year old Narveson to Triple-A Pawtucket.

Views: Kim saved 36 games and posted a 2.04 ERA for the Diamondbacks back in 2002, but his numbers have declined since then. Throwing him in Coors Field should amount to a very combustible situation and certainly one that fantasy owners should go nowhere near, if at all possible.

haha

Basically useless for a live fantasy auction (I'm not taking my powerbook to Bobby V's to have beer poured on it), I hope the team tracker function is useful.

By the time the expansion teams and lower ranked teams had gotten their picks before my first one, there was almost nothing left in the way of pitching. Closers, gone. Reliable starters, gone. So instead I just drafted hitting on top of hitting, young starters and some setup men and sent up a prayer for injuries.

My active pitchers, w/ CC Sabathia on the reserves, Kazmir in the minors until I see how he performs, and a raft of setup men (Brower, Tavarez, Reitsma, Speier, Kim until I see how he turns out)
P Jake Peavy
P Zack Greinke
P Miguel Batista
P John Patterson
P Dan Haren
P Doug Davis
P Yhency Brazoban
P Woody Williams
P Brett Tomko
P Akinori Otsuka

I R screwed.

BALCO KNEES

SS M. Tejada
SP J. Santana, C. Pavano, K. Escobar, C. Carpenter, R. López
3B A. Ramírez, D. Wright
1B D. Ortiz
RP B. Lidge, Fr. Rodríguez, R. Madson
C I. Rodríguez
2B M. Giles, E. Alfonzo
OF J. Damon, S. Sosa, S. Green, S. Finley, P. Wilson, M. Lawton

Zito is a total wild card at this point, defintely stay clear of him.

Good luck.

Well, that settles that.

Sometimes that doesn't happen, tho, & you need to either check the link to the Game Preview yourself to see if lineups have been posted, or go to another site (like MLB.com) & check there. & please note - I'm not sure if you get this if you're not paying the $9.95 for StatTracker. (Me, I always pony up for this, as I am a "stat whore", & love sexxxing those numbers.)

I believe Yahoo! gives you up until 10 minutes before gametime to make switches, but watch out for lagtime - I've been bitten many times by trying to get the switch in RIGHT AT the cut off time, & had Yahoo! take its sweet time in getting to the next page, & missed my opportunity. The sooner you can do it, the better (obviously).

OK, that's what I thought that meant, but I wasn't sure.
Hmmm ... so StatTracker is also responsible for putting the little accents next to a pitcher's name on the day he starts? I guess I'll have to start looking that stuff up myself?

I'll see how dependent I am on this stuff once ST is taken away, then maybe I'll pony up the $10 (pro: lotsa stats, con: lotsa stats, I'll never leave the computer!!)

I'd require youth w/ upside if it's a keeper league (our friend Greinke) or a legit #1 or #2 starter for either Young or Renteria.

I agree with you -- scotch the trade. Lowe is a bit unpredictable from year to year, but he plays in a pitchers park and he's giving up waaay fewer baserunners than he used to (incl. a much improved walk rate). Clement is the opposite, he's giving up way more baserunners than he typically does, and he plays in a hitters park.

Yeah, that was my instinct, MIR, I just wanted some ILBB support.

Even if you're getting lapped in wins, it's only one category - give me a guy like a Randy Johnson or a Ben Sheets from last year over some win-happy jerk like Russ Ortiz. The wins might not be there for RJ or BS, but the other areas they help you in (ERA, WHIP, Ks) more than make up for that deficiency.

So, me, I'd take Clement. Better track record, higher-powered offense, likely to rebound from his walk troubles. You'd be selling high on Lowe (I don't expect four more three-hit shutouts) and buying low on Clement, usually a good strategy.

C Joe Mauer
C Jason Varitek
1B Hee Seop Choi
2B Marcus Giles
2B Tadahito Iguchi
3B Mike Lowell
3B Bill Mueller
SS Jason Bartlett
SS Khalil Greene
OF Jason Bay
OF Milton Bradley
OF Lew Ford
OF Mark Kotsay
OF Manny Ramirez
OF Alex Rios

SP Joe Blanton
SP Matt Clement
SP Kelvim Escobar
SP Jon Garland
SP Brad Halsey
SP Rich Harden
SP Scott Kazmir
SP John Patterson
SP Tim Wakefield
SP Jeff Weaver
RP Ambiorix Burgos
RP Octavio Dotel
RP LaTroy Hawkins
RP Todd Jones

Currently in 11th place out of 13 teams. Desperately in need of RBI, runs, saves and wins. (Garland was a late waiver pickup and has thus far yielded no bounty; ditto Patterson, but with one win counting so far.) Hee Seop has been coming around, but isn't exactly a lethal weapon at first.

ARI vs COL tonight. Brandon Webb (who doesn't have a great record in Coors, but pitched well and won in a game there earlier in the season) gets the start.

I've got three Rockies on my roster, and I'd like to play them all (FLA vs SD and Peavy tonight, so Mike Lowell's ass is gonna ride the pine for my team). Of course, starting three Rockies vs Webb seems like a zero-sum game for my team.

Obv. these sorts of situations aren't uncommon in fantasy baseball, so how do you guys strategize them? Is there a "general principle" to follow (i.e. "more often than not, side with the starting pitcher") or is each situation different and must be dealt with individually?

My rotation will be:
Santana
Carpenter
Harden
Capuano
[Wood or Bedard: whoever comes off the DL first]

My outfield will be:
A. Jones
M. Cameron
R. Sanders
with V. Wells in reserve

In my other league, I have too many starting pitchers. I'm already 7.2 IP over my projected limit, and I have four starters going tonight -- Chris Carpenter, Hiroki Kuroda, Derek Lowe and Mike Pelfrey. Should I sit one of them? Do you guys generally hit your IP limit early and hope for the best in the last few weeks of the season, or do you try to pace yourself?

I don't really pay attention to innings at all. It doesn't matter when you get your innings. The trick is to get the highest quality innings you can get, so if you believe all those guys will play well, you might as well play them. Who knows: you might get hit by injuries, and have to fill innings with chumps from the free agent pool.

That said, Lowe hasn't looked too hot this year.

yea id say just go hard w/ guys & matchups ur confident in

i'd sit lowe against philly

trade PELFREY ASAP wtf... check that expiration date man...

i'd sit lowe against philly

― ciderpress, Friday, May 7, 2010 5:23 PM (2 hours ago)

aaagh

dude, lemme give you some advice: do NOT start an avg-to-lousy pitcher against the best offense in the NL (MLB?) in their bandbox of a stadium... for future reference, of course.

... in your *other* leagues.

funnily enough i have lowe in the ilx league and i didn't sit him

ok, more advice for my other league. I need a shortstop. Another team really wants Prince Fielder from my team and is offering Lance Berkman + my choice of Alex Gonzales or R. Furcal for Fielder. This sounds like something I should jump at. But maybe I want to hold out for Berkman + Jimmy Rollins for Fielder...? They want Fielder because they're Brewers fans -- sentiment always makes people overpay for something right? What would be my best deal here?

Don't think you'll be able to get Berkman + Rollins for Fielder. I'd be tempted to see if I can find a shortstop on the wire. Did you try to claim Castro?

Castro's available -- is he really all that?

he'll prob be equal in value to furcal, better than alex g & slightly worse than rollins, altho arguably not

I don't know if he's all that, but he's free, and so far he's been pretty good.

Picked him up -- pretty sure he'll outdo Cliff Pennington.

Also got James Loney, who was just sitting there available! So if the other team is willing to do Prince for Rollins straight-up, I think it'll be a pretty good net gain.

This other league is kinda O_O, but fun because there's only 10 teams.