2005 Rolling Dumb-Ass Baseball Analysis Thread

"Oh to be 27 again.

It is the ripe ol' age in Fantasy Baseball circles -- when boys become men and, consequently, when they become very rich men in the free-agent market.

Case in point: Carlos Beltran, 2005's 27-year-old deluxe in Fantasy leagues and the prized signee of the Mets to the tune of seven years and $119 million.

It has long been the belief age 27 is the beginning of a player's prime. The best proof is in the dollars.

The dollars Beltran received this offseason came before his 27th birthday. As did the 10-year, $250 million deal Alex Rodriguez signed back in December of 2000, which is still by far the richest contract in major-league history in both total and average dollars. Those two rank Nos. 1a and 1b in CBS SportsLine.com's Preseason Top 300."

Looks like someone has an ESPN job waiting when he quits (via BP):

"You have to hit for average. That's what people get caught up in. There's only one Oakland A's team out there that really cares about on-base percentage. It looks better if you're hitting .300 and getting on base .320, than if you're hitting .260 and getting on base .360."
--Detroit outfielder Bobby Higginson, on how, in bizarro-world, .320 is better than .360 (Detroit News)

"I put myself in a better position to hit by being aggressive. Instead of assuming the pitch is going to be a ball, I'm assuming it's going to be a strike. I've been bad for a little while, so I needed to do something different."
--Higginson

"I'm not waiting around anymore. I'm hacking."
--Higginson

I'd make a comment re: the dood's name, but that'd be low & unnecessary, given the cockcraft apparent in his analyses.

& wow I hope Detroit's hoping that Bobby finds his way onto the DL before he turns into their answer to Mike Greenwell (cf. Greenwell's penchant, whenever I watched the bastard hit for the Sox w/ guys OB, to swing at whatever the first pitch was & pop / ground out).

If Higginson continues to find the occasional apple while rooting through the muck he's the starting LF over Rondell White, who is batting .700.

Illitch is still holding onto the idea Higgy's a fan fave, but he's a holdover poster boy of the second-losingest team in the history of baseball. He's the slowly failing endocrine system of an otherwise healthy middle-aged civil servant that knows his job and is ready to slash up the paperwork.

If the Tigers keep him on, they may as well flush the last 8.8 mil of his contract down the toilet. David, you're right, he'll make hundreds of outs this year, and be little more than a pretty face.

I'm extending your frustration to ownership, but I agree with you about most fantasy columnists being clueless. I know ours can be. Thank goodness the college kids are swinging, and short-season single A isn't too far off...

He's right - until recently (and really, it's still happening) you were going to get paid more with a .300/.320 line than .260/.360. That's even how he phrases it - what team management cares about, what you've got to do to impress them.

Even the middle one, if it's in the same interview, isn't so bad.

I had a pretty interesting convo with him last week about gangsta rap and the practitioners of that sublime art. He's close friends with Joey Crack, and was detailing some of their family excursions.

So, as far as a battle goes, unless any of yall can put me on The Game I'm not going to tempt Grendel and his Terror Squad homeboys.

So if CT is SOL re: MSG, and Time Warner NY is, too, then who's actually getting it? Cablevision folk? Fishermen in Nova Scotia? THE COMMIES?

BEST: The few times I've heard Piazza (on ESPN Home Run Derbys), he's sounded affable & competent. Leiter, too, though he's prone to some traditional baseballisms (& it's a credit to him he was actually able to get some of those out, though, w/ McCarver hogging the mic w/ his sub-Ratherian shtick). But every player's gonna fall back on those, I imagine.

Honestly, give me a ex-player that can form a complete sentence, talk about the game w/out lording his experience over me like he gave me my Y chromosome, and display a sense of humor, and I am happy as all that. Affable southern drawl is optional. Acknowledgement (& not outright dismissal) of non-trad baseball thought is a super-bonus (& shooting for the moon).

If Doug Glanville can work the mic, he should be fine. (and he is reputedly sabermetric-versed)

http://www.nypost.com/sports/22455.htm

Al Leiter did a pretty good job in the playoffs two years ago, as he provided some actual insight into pitching. He might make a pretty good one.

I thought Steve Stone was a pretty good color commentator. He isn't a great commentator, but who is? At least Stone some times stays a bit quiet and lets the game tell the story, unlike some of these guys that roll from line to line constantly back pedalling on what they said two innings beforehand. Tony Gwynn provides dome insight into hitting, but his voice is squeaky and not the best for broadcasting.

also, kruk of all people implied that pitchers aren't athletes.

Comparing the Young & Old
A few times in 2005 I've remarked in some forum, whether it was on the radio or TV or in print, that Miguel Cabrera of the Marlins is going to end up like Manny Ramirez. Words are just words, though, and I admit sometimes we can get a little crazy on comparisons. But I really DO think Cabrera is that good. Here are a few pairs of players who look a lot alike to me and plenty of others who make their living projecting statistics. Regular readers/listeners are aware of these old/young comparisons. Now let's back 'em up.

Let's start with Manny and Miguel. Pair of home run hitting corner outfielders who put up monster numbers, seem to do it with relative ease, and don't say much on or off the field. They just do their jobs and mash the ball. Say what you will about Ramirez, but he has 18 postseason homers, 390 regular season ones, and he's on his way to the Hall of Fame. He's putting up numbers like Willie McCovey and Rocky Colavito at a similar age. And he's not slowing down.

Cabrera will be 22 in a month; Manny is 11 years older.

-In 2004, Manny went 43-130-.308. Miguel went 33-112-.294. Since it was Cabrera's first full season, we can't compare prior seasons.

-After the All-Star break in 2004, Manny went 17-53-.264. Miguel went 13-53-.292.

Fantasy owners don't want to hear the excuse of tough ballparks, but Cabrera is not far away from Ramirez now. Considering the age difference and what Manny was doing when he was this age, I'd say Cabrera is well on his way. Ramirez didn't have his first monster season until age 26. Cabrera will have that season now, probably get close to 40 homers. Draft Manny late in round 1, but Cabrera can deliver round 2 numbers.

What about at third base, where Scott Rolen is the NL's best, and David Wright looks like the future? I've been calling Wright the future Rolen, but do we have any basis to make that remark? Well, sometimes you have to look past pure stats. Wright has played all of 69 games of major league ball, but in his case I also see intangibles. He's mature. He runs. He's fields well. He just looks like a veteran out there. His minor league numbers didn't blossom until late in 2003, when he was a prospect, but not a top one. Now? He's going to play every day.

Wright is 22. Rolen is just about 30.

-In 2004, after the break, Rolen went 16-44-.276. Wright went 14-40-.293. I just feel something here, and Wright's going to be a star ... now.

Final comparison here is starting pitchers Greg Maddux and Zack Greinke. Now I haven't been real high on Greinke, mainly because I do my best to avoid young starting pitching, and Greinke doesn't only have that working against him, but he's on a 100-loss team. But we often hear these names intertwined, so let's investigate.

-In 2004, Maddux, now a 300-game winner and 38 years old, went 16-11 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. After the break he was better, 9-4 with a 3.48.

-In 2004, Greinke, in his first MLB action and 21 years old, went 8-11 with a 3.97 and 1.17. After the break he did much of his work, going 7-5 with a 4.04.

The reason for this comparison is that Greinke is an oddity. Like Maddux, he doesn't get the job done by overpowering hitters. They call it guile in the business. Can Greinke be the next Maddux? Well, for these purposes, let's discuss Greinke's immediate future, and leave out the fact Kansas City is not likely to give him run support. If Greinke continues to keep that ERA under 4, won't he be a big winner? He's had no sign of arm troubles - like Maddux, who incidentally struggled until his third year in the league. Greinke has great command and doesn't waste time walking hitters. But it's not often you see a guy allow 26 home runs in 145 innings. That rate will have to improve. But based on his walk rate, he has a nice future.

I'd say Greinke can be a 15-game winner this season. Every season there are players who manage to win games even when their teams don't. A pair of Padres won 15 games last season. Rodrigo Lopez won 14. And back in 2002, Paul Byrd won 18 games for the Royals, while the team went 62-100. Greinke is being drafted 65th among all pitchers, right where Jeff Weaver, Kevin Brown, Dontrelle Willis and Chris Carpenter are going. Nothing wrong with that. Seems like fantasy owners are thinking Greinke's made it already.

1. Karabell is not a real baseball writer, but a fantasy baseball analyst. Therefore, he's not concerned with Manny at age 22, but both Ramirez and Cabrera right now. Same with Wright / Rolen and Grienke / Maddux.

2. He does refer to young Manny, albeit briefly: "Ramirez didn't have his first monster season until age 26. Cabrera will have that season now, probably get close to 40 homers."

3. Referring to Otis Nixon to make a point on the Internet was outlawed in the Geneva Convention guidelines.

2. Duly noted. However there's a second complaint within this Cabrera/Ramirez analysis: the fulcrum of his argument seems to be about RBI, a statistic that is much more circumstance than skill. Now of course in fantasy baseball RBIs are much more important than, say, SLG (in most leagues, anyway), but they are also nearly impossible to predict.

3. Otis Nixon should ALWAYS be referred to everywhere ever. He is MLB's Bo Outlaw, and we should celebrate that fact.

"The reason for this comparison is that Greinke is an oddity. Like Maddux, he doesn't get the job done by overpowering hitters. They call it guile in the business. Can Greinke be the next Maddux? ... He's had no sign of arm troubles - like Maddux, who incidentally struggled until his third year in the league."

He's mostly just talking about how some people think Manny, Rolen, and even Maddux are fantasy gold whereas Cabrera, Wright, and Gienke will be just as good this year. I agree that it's sloppy writing, but it's not anywhere near as "dumb-ass" as some other stuff here.

Cabrera is a good player and improve into a superstar, but Ramierez has a lifetime .316 BA and .599! SLG. Cabrera is already klutz in the field like Manny, so they have that in common.

Eric proceeded to hobble through an inning to the disbelief of all announcers. He did a little hop on his follow-throughs and looked at about 65% mobile.

Boy, do I love spring training.

4. The Blue Jays bullpen scared me in 2004. Should I turn off the TV after six innings in 2005 to save myself unnecessary trauma?
The Bullpen

Take a group of arsonists: add gasoline, matches, acetylene torches; mix in a generous helping of crystal meth and stir and you’ve got the recipe for the Blue Jays’ bullpen circa 2004. It was Tony Castillo, Bill Caudill, Joey McLaughlin, Mike Timlin, and Roy Lee Jackson flashbacks. It was like watching a slasher flick, a train wreck, and a group of St. Bernard’s puking their guts out to a New Kids On The Block soundtrack with the Spice Girls in the background.

Then things started really getting ugly.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/toronto-blue-jays-2005-preview/

HR: I don't care if you call it Billyball or whatever you call it in Oakland, you just DON'T get rid of all your best pitchers like that! Those guys have won a lot of your games, and getting rid of them is just plain stupid!

John Kruk: But they weren't gonna be able to afford those guys after this year.

HR: But what about this year?

JK: They got some good pitchers for them! Rich Harden--

HR: Listen, this is gonna be the year that all that stuff [he might even have said 'mumbo-jumbo' but I won't swear to it...he wanted to say it though] they have going out in Oakland is gonna be tested. I just don't think it's going to work, giving away all your good pitchers like that and not spending any money.

Karl Ravech: Well, maybe the new owners they have in Oakland will change all that. Okay, moving on.....

(I agree with HR that this will be a pretty good test year for Oakland. But wasn't last year? The year before? The year before that?)

Ha! "I think HR's OK, unlike you guys, but here's where HR is acting like you guys purport!" No doubt HR is OK more often than not, esp. when compared to his other ESPN peeps, but, man, when he lets one rip, it lingers like sweat sock stink.

I guess this year, for Oakland, will be a BIG test year, as it'll be Billyball sans 2 of the 3 young turk ambassadors that made Billyball possible, which is what HR was trying to get at (tho he got at it using the most inflamatory & misinformed rhetoric possible). But, yeah, Billy's mumbo-jumbo about GETTING ON BASE and MAXIMIZING AT-BATS and SCORING RUNS for those winning pitchers and, most importantly, dumpster-diving for no-name talent (caps for HR, not any ILBBer) has been tested every year, & he's passed with flying colors, while folks w/ more $$$$ & 1/100th the inventiveness squeak by w/ their 3rd place finishes & rarely get called to the mat. I guess that's what happens when someone writes a book about your unorthodox secrets of success.

Also (& I think this was mentioned in Buster Onley's article on the new Big Three) (or maybe it was a BP write-up), Beane's approach has been tweaked slightly over the past few years. He began his tenure looking for bullpen bargains and grabbing any stiff that could get on base, as that's what the market & his budget would allow; now, with some folks trying to cotton to that approach, he's shifting ever-so-slightly towards grabbing rangy types that can run a bit (cf. Mark Kotsay & Jason Kendall) and amassing an impressive cadre of hard-throwing bullpen arms. I don't know if that summary of what's happened (which I'm cribbing) is accurate, but it's safe to say that Billyball can, and has, adapted to the surroundings. Of course, it only had to offset the loss of a big bat; losing 2 highly effective starters, on the surface (& on that damn paper!) (graph paper, no doubt), seems like a bigger hole to fill.

Also, I'd like to say that ESPN is a collective dumb-ass for turning virtually all its baseball coverage into "premium content" this year. O yeah Disney really needs my money. It's a stupid decision in the long run, because other sites with intelligent baseball analysis are springing up daily. But I miss reading Neyer. Eff off you 'togs.

OH! I CAN'T WAIT TO GET NEXT TO YOU
OH! I CAN'T WAIT TO HAVE YOU IN MY ARMS
OLNEY YOU CAN MAKE ME FEEL (repeat & vamp)
OLNEY YOU CAN TAKE ME THERE (repeat & vamp)

Last I checked, the baseball premium content included Neyer & Cresnik - did they shove Stark in there, too? I only ever read Neyer, because I R supersnob, but, yeah, M@tt is OTM re: calling ESPN out. Pay content + obtrusive Shockwave ads on the frontpage = DOES NOT COMPUTE. (Also, please to respecfully let go of one Mike Patrick, as he is slowly turning into a charmless super-addled Pat Summerall.) (Also, tell Boomer than purple is NOT his color.)

um, re: harold reynolds

yeah, that was a silly display last night. i understand people articulating other viewpoint to running a team than beane or even just saying that they out and out don't buy it, but i don't quite get the need to so venomously attack.

the problem with baseball players in this high-tech new modern world is that they refuse to see themselves for what they are: cogs in a statistical machine, interchangeable for the most part, existing only to fill the roles that fate and God and Bill James have shown that they must fill. I'm reading Moneyball now and the arrogance of players and managers, who insist on the game being made up of human beings instead of percentages, is astounding!

Of course, ESPN also employes a Hall-of-Fame, wickedly-patient, hard-hitting 2B (w/ a career .392 OBP!) as their go-to color guy, and he's not so quick on the uptake re: the benefit of getting guys on base, which is just silly. Dude averaged 90-100 BBs a season in his prime, and he's not down with OBP! Stop drinking the McCarver Kool-Aid, Joe!

(SLIGHTLY sarcastic, 'Puss?)

What's really disquieting about last year's MM, though, is that his walk total jumped up a LOT (from an average of 50 the previous 3 years to over 80), which might've been injury-related, but also might be a sign of bad ju-ju to come if the trend continues. Giving up 20+ HRs per year w/ a 1.2ish WHIP = OK. Giving up 20+ HRs per year w/ a WHIP on the 1.3+ tip = not so OK. Also, his lowish K totals, coupled w/ the lowish BB totals (about 1 K/BB per inning) suggest plenty of balls in play, & the move to a park that's not blessed with the sizable foul territory of Oakland's stadium might not help him. (Having Eck & Grudz turning tricks around 2B might not help, either.) Still, Fox, when healthy, was ON, so it's not unexpected for sensible folks to wonder what's what when the Beane cuts bait, even if most of this worry is based on PR stuff and a rose-colored view of his previous performance rather than the facts, man.

For the record, I'm very optimistic & think that these moves will work out for the A's, and am eager to see them strut their stuff this year and make the HRs of the world eat their jock straps. FIRST PLACE, BABY!

AL: Boston | Cleveland | Oakland | Angels (FROM ANAHEIM YOU BASTARDOS)
NL: Philly | Chicago | Los Angeles | Mets

it's amazing that kruk makes reynolds seem downright sensible. i couldn't believe it when they both chose the braves' rotation as the best in the nl east. uh, hello? mike hampton sucks!

I hate the YES Network. You're not "working the count" when it's 3-0.

Jeff Brantley, always dependable:

"It never hurts to have a VETERAN PRESENCE in that bullpen."

"You don't see many guys playing for Lloyd McClendon not hustling."

(He's OK on pitching selection/sequence, but needs to shut up more.)

I would've watched more of the ESPN2 broadcast last night (Marlins / Braves), but poor Dan Schulman was sandwiched between Buck Martinez and Jeff Brantley, and between Martinez's blandness and Brantley's Krukness, I couldn't handle more than a few pitches. I opted to watch replays of Mariano's flame out instead.

That is Jeanie Zelasko-esque!

so bad we switched it over to the TBS braves/nationals broadcast.

Can't ESPNEWS give Rob Neyer a show? at 1 am?

y'know...i blame joe buck for bringing business casual to the booth.

Paraphrased pearls of wisdom gleaned from Red Sox radio guy Joe Costiglione (sic): if you want to have success against the Yankees, you have to keep A-Rod, Jeter, and Sheffield off the bases. GEE YOU THINK? "Gosh - you know, guys, if we can keep the top of the lineup hitless, we might just win this thing!" COMING SOON: Scoring Runs - A Good Thing.

What were the highlights from Morgan's show? Is this a weekly segment?

-- David R.

Stoner dood's first start (in case you forgot, Leeee): 8 IP, 5 H, 1 BB.

IT'S A FACT! Woody's gonna get yanked like a dog's chewtoy after 3 IP.

My plan: grow a beard, change my name to Al Hrabosky, get hired by Yahoo! to do this shit, hope to last a month until the REAL Al finds out, then get hired on as the best potty-mouthed baseball writer EVAH. And then get some.

the funk?

That's the best piece of baseball writing I've read this year.

(yeah, I know you weren't taking issue w/the article itself...)

in which ryne sandberg STILL rates the yankees #4. due to the facts that (wait for it...) a) the tampa bay massacree shows you can't keep the yanks down long and b) the pitching couldn't possibly be so bad all year.

quite, rhino.

"[The Rockies are] hitting .285 as a team, but their staff ERA is the worst in the big leagues at 7.45. It's hard to win while giving up seven earned runs a game."

TOSS UP. Who would you rather have this season, Roger Clemens or Dontrelle Willis?

Kornheiser: Here are Clemens' numbers: 21 IP, 26 K, 0.43 ERA.

Wilbon: B..b..b..b..but Tony! He's only 1-0! I'll take the guy who's 3-0.

they had a little bit on "building the perfect leadoff hitter" which was capped by ravech & hr doing freestyle rants about obp. i seriously don't understand how you can, w/ a straight face, say obp doesn't matter for a leadoff dude.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/reynoha01.shtml

Higg, don't you know "it doesn't matter if you don't score runs"?!?

"Nolan was 3-4, and Jimmy was 7-1. The question was, would you rather have Nolan Ryan or Jimmy Deshaies? Some guys were foolish enough to say Nolan Ryan. I say, why? You're gong to end up in last place with Nolan Ryan. With Jimmy Deshaies, you're going to win the division."
--Astros manager Phil Garner, recalling a stretch in the 1980s where Jim Deshaies got a ton of run support while Nolan Ryan got very little (MLB.com)

I guess that settles that.

I shudder to think what "linguini" is a euphamism for in Vitale's mind.

Suzyn Waldman on Yankee radio: Tony Womack was a "great pickup" because he "does a lot of things on the field." She's broken down that gender barrier and proven that a former musical-theater singer can be just as crappy an analyst as an ex-jock.

Morgan's latest hypothesis (interrupted momentarily by some knowing glances into the camera by Jon Miller, and a mention that Joe WALKED A WHOLE HELLUVA LOT as a player): Adam Dunn's number of strikeouts is surprising, because he's very selective, and has a good eye at the plate. Usually, Joe sez, if you have a good eye at the plate, you make contact, because you're only swinging at pitches you can handle, and you're putting your bat on the ball. I forget if Joe went so far as to say that Dunn would be better if he didn't walk so much, but he might as well have, given that he's seemingly questioning the contributions of one of the best power hitters in baseball.

>We'd rather not read about VORP either -- particularly
when Kenny Rogers is in the AL top five in VORP??@#?!!? (seriously)<

Hmmmm, now you can write off ERA, Flat Earther, as Kenny now leads the AL in that category.

Q: Which division leaders are least likely to finish in first place?

In the NL, I'll say the Los Angeles Dodgers. They've surprised a lot of people so far and they'll be pushed by three teams in the end – Arizona, San Diego and San Francisco. All three are within three games of the Dodgers right now, and all three have just enough talent to get hot and to catch L.A.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/mariotti/cst-spt-jay11.html

brilliant.

What's sad is that, w/out reading it, I can HEAR his F-CKING VOICE saying the STUPID SH-T that's undoubtedly festering in that article. THANK YOU AROUND THE HORN.

UGH!

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/news-notes-and-quotes-may-25-2005/

OMG I WOULD BUY THAT

Also, I have no doubt that Clayton's teammates over the years have repeatedly told him, "Man, you really hit a lot of balls solid, but right at guys." I mean, what else should they say? "You know Royce, you hit the ball pretty softly on the rare occasions you make decent contact, so I'm not at all surprised your batting average is so low."

Latest Kruk gem: tho "not a numbers guy," he included Larry Bowa among his fave 3 defensive shortstops "because of his fielding percentage. I don't care about range." Gleeman is right; I think I'm turning to ESPNEWS rather than BBTN before I smash the cable box.

I've talked about this guy before. He's Mike Lucas, "the Shame of Madison." His columns are like this all the time, but he's usually writing about the Packers or the Badgers. Oy vey.

So wait, it starts off as a Turnbow BASH, then turns into a Turnbow SMASH, then veers back towards BASH, and sideswipes Junior Spivey along the way? Dude, pick one lane and STAY IN IT.

=============

Can he hit?

Can he field?

Can he be bothered to show up to games on time?

Can he stop giving me dirty looks?

Can he stop stealing my mail?

Unfortunately, the answer is a resounding, clarion-calling, prolapse-inducing:

No.

Here's mine:

Nuts to you, buddy.

As in: nuts, mine. Or deez.

And as in: you.

(This stuff just "writes" itself!)

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=2073780

Jeter has a nice face, a rugged face, a handsome face, equal parts black and white, the son of a black father and white mother who had simple rules for him in high school, including being home by 10 p.m. every night and eating his lunch every day. He was taught well, and he has never forgotten his lessons. That's why he is such a good player and team captain. That's why he is the face of baseball.

http://www.cantstopthebleeding.com/index.php?p=1985

“This guy Bill James has all the answers, but he’s never worn a uniform.”

Did anyone else hear the Roving ESPN Baseball Babe say "home BASE" during an O's-Red Sox game last week?

Should they teach Sutcliffe's unbearable vocal rhythms in broadcasting school?

The.

Hell?

x-post:
I might try to replace Lucas at The Capital Times, which I think I could do if it didn't mean writing Barry Alvarez puff pieces and old war stories with Elroy Hirsch every year at the Crazy Legs Classic.

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0764575376.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

Q: Are Lou Piniella's days numbered in Tampa after ripping the Devil Rays' new owners for having the majors' lowest payroll?

A: I think it is difficult for a team like the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to lure big free agents and also pay them. That's why when Piniella got hired I wondered why he would even go there in the first place and leave a winning situation in Seattle.

Piniella's tirades might be a way to fire up his ball players, but I've never heard of a manager going public to fire up the ownership. Ripping management in public is the wrong way to go about getting a contract extension.

A lot of responsibility for the team's last-place record in the AL East does go to the ownership, but the owners may go ahead without Piniella, even though he has helped increase the victory totals the last two seasons in Tampa Bay.

Q: Who is the player to watch in the 2005 MLB draft?

A: I'm going to keep my eye on a player that was drafted by the Texas Rangers out of Pepperdine in the 15th round. His name is Kea Kometani, a 6-foot-4 right-hander with a big upside.

Kometani, who went 10-5 for the Waves this year, has good movement on the ball and has all the makings of a top big-league pitching prospect. He also just happens to be a teammate of my son Justin.

OH GEE WOULDA LOOKY THERE!

"Ichiro's stats in Japan a nonfactor for Hall
Insider
By Joe Morgan
ESPN Insider
Archive

Congratulations to Ichiro Suzuki on reaching the 1,000-hit milestone. Although he's hitting below .300 right now, a rare occurrence for him, he's still having a solid season for the Seattle Mariners – and there's more to Ichiro than just the batting average.

Ichiro plays the game the way it's supposed to be played, with intensity and diligence. He plays great defense in right field, he has excellent speed and he runs the bases well (the latter two don't always go hand in hand). He just knows how to play the game."

is a doozy.

i thought you were being clever given his area of expertise.

Tommy, (cincy, ohio): YO Steve!! Are the Reds really shopping Adam Dunn or is the media just speculating? Plus, would they really trade him to a team in their own division?

Steve Phillips: (12:13 PM ET ) Dan O'Brien tends to be a very patient GM. But I think they should trade him. He is slated to make around $9M in arbitration and they have him batting sixth. Guys making that much need to bat 3 or 4. He is an enigma of a hitter. Very high OBP, he hits some HRs, but his RBI numbers and his AVG just doesn't reflect an elite offensive player.

Steve Phillips: (12:14 PM ET ) If somebody could get him to swing earlier and be more aggressive, it could make a difference But he is their biggest chip and for $9M they could find some dramatic improvements or their pitching.

There was a Prospectus article recently about the inherent padding of the GIAMBINO's obp because of his immobility.

Socratic exchange with Joe Morgan No. 1, on the subject of Moneyball, base running in the 2002 American League Division Series, and the use of statistics in baseball:

Me: It seems that you almost take [the book] personally.

Joe: I took it personally because they had a personal thing about me saying Durham should've stolen second base in the game that they lost -- he stayed at first base, and they hit three fly balls, and the A's lose another fifth game.

Me: And that's the chief reason you don't even wanna read the book?

Joe: I don't read books like that. I didn't read Bill James' book, and you said he was complimenting me. Why would I wanna read a book about a computer, that gives computer numbers?

Me: It's not about a computer.

Joe: Well, I'm not reading the book, so I wouldn't know.

Me: I'm not --

Joe: Why would I wanna read the book? All I'm saying is, I see a game every day. I watch baseball every day. I have a better understanding about why things happen than the computer, because the computer only tells you what you put in it. I could make that computer say what I wanted it to say, if I put the right things in there. ... The computer is only as good as what you put in it. How do you think we got Enron?

john you could argue that one of the reasons he's hitting .210 w/ risp is cause he's not seeing as many good pitches with seven on deck

Bill James in that Morgan profile boils down why all ESPN personnel need to be ignored (save for parody): "We in sabermetrics do best when we can keep the discussion focused on questions like 'What is true?' and 'What is the logical position here?' and 'What is the evidence on that issue?' We don't do so well when we drift into debates about personality and character, since those discussions focus, in the end, [on] who is cool. I respect Joe's greatness as a player, and, as for Joe as a broadcaster, I've said as much as I'm going to say." [ie, twit and weenie]

The July 4th Mets broadcast featured a singular teaming of Tom Seaver, Keith Hernandez and Fran Healy in the booth, respectively lazy, self-amused and idiotic. A couple nights before, tho, a list of the NL leaders in AT-BATS went up (Reyes near the top), and Hernandez said "You know what that means? You play every day andyou don't walk." An elementary insight, but its profundity for a Metscast struck Healy dumb. (In the first 2 games of the Nats series, Healy used the phrase "our nation's capital" at least 40 times.)

that's not from the NHBA is it? and what bill james book are they talking about in cohen's excerpt? the NHBA contains a hilarious & not exactly complimentary open letter to morgan which i believe you referenced there.

Re: Dunn's .210 BA w/ RISP - that's only in 60ish ABs. And he has 25 RBIs anyway. A few hits here and there, and that average is a nice number that dimwits (not you, JD) can dryhump until they chafe. The rest of his line is .444 / .484. Meanwhile, a punchless Judy like Sean Casey has 79 ABs w/ RISP - his line is .291 / .355 / .342. And the number of RBIs that fancy hollow AVG gets him? 29. Put Dunn in Casey's spot, he could be Top 5 RBIs w/out breaking a sweat.

btw, casey and dunn have almost identical PAs w/ runners on and risp, so that's def hyperbole. and really, dunn's totals seem if anything higher than they should be.

i don't think i'd be recommending that profile to joe if my goal was to persuade him james wasn't such a bad guy!

xpost
ba shd be weighted pretty heavily w/ RISP i think. there's a lotta static & gaps in the numbers there and anyway casey's slugging .34friggin2 so yr cheating.

ROFFLE

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=bayless/050708&num=0

In its song "Peace of Mind," didn't Boston sing "Take a look ahead"?

No matter how big of a glory-hogging prima donna Schilling can be, this team needs him in whatever role he can provide.

Schilling has replaced Michael Jordan as the greatest winner in sports. He's not Jordan, but there's no greater pressure-beating performer. In Arizona, Schilling became the biggest reason Randy Johnson now wears a World Series ring. And in Boston, he will win the Red Sox a second ring, if they'll reshrink their egos and let him.

One if by Curt, two if by Schilling.

[...]

Schilling closing would make it very interesting. Schilling playing Mariano Rivera could ultimately be the reason the Red Sox hold off the Yankees in the AL East. Schilling would be better than "Closer," the Jude-and-Julia gut-wrencher I gave 4½ stars.

[...]

I don't doubt Schilling was so hurt he shouldn't have been pitching in the ALCS. But I'll always believe that was fake blood on his sock. Come on, the spot didn't get bigger or browner, as it should have as he pitched deeper into the game. It stayed the same ketchup-blot size.

I'll always believe Schilling doctored his sock to intimidate the Yankees ("His ankle's about to fall off and we still can't hit him!") and to turn himself into an even bigger hero.

That's Schilling.

He's the reason I publicly picked the Red Sox to win it all before last season and the reason I picked them to repeat.

I wouldn't be surprised if Gammo was moved to the pay-section - they've done it w/ a good number of their columnists / analysts already. I'm waiting for ESPN to make their ads Insider-only.

"...after PO ended up with a -.26 correlation with runs last year, ESPN decided to drop the statistic."

Palmeiro steps up among elite lefties

By David Ginsburg
Associated Press

BALTIMORE - No lefthanded batter in the history of baseball has showed the consistency and power of Baltimore Orioles first baseman Rafael Palmeiro, whose entry into the elite 3,000-500 club is a testament to a stellar career that should gain him first-ballot entry into the Hall of Fame.

When Palmeiro got his 3,000th hit off Seattle's Joel Pineiro on Friday night, he joined Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Eddie Murray as the only players in baseball history with at least 3,000 hits and 500 home runs.

"With numbers like that, maybe I belong in their group," Palmeiro said recently, "but not their class. I know I'm not there."

Perhaps. But unlike the others, Palmeiro isn't done yet. He is also the only one in the quartet to swing exclusively from the left side of the plate.

There's no way to accurately determine the greatest lefthanded hitter in baseball history, but an argument can be made for Palmeiro, who now has 346 more hits than Ted Williams, nearly 450 more home runs than Ty Cobb and 127 more hits than Babe Ruth.

Some may scoff at the notion of placing Palmeiro among the game's premier hitters, mainly because he has attained those lofty numbers with very little fanfare. But his peers have the utmost respect for his work ethic - and his prowess at the plate.

"Consistency - that's the only way you accomplish numbers like that," New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter said. "You have to be very consistent for a long time, and that's what he's done."

As he neared the 3,000 mark, Palmeiro squirmed when doing interviews about the significance of the event.

He doesn't like to talk much, especially when the subject is himself.

"I haven't really thought about it," he said. "The day will come, and then we'll move on."

Murray couldn't have put it any better.

"Eddie and Raffy were similar in that they were very quiet and extremely productive," former Oriole Cal Ripken said. "They are two of the best hitters of all time, and I was honored to call them both teammates."

By the time he's done, the 40-year-old Palmeiro will rank in the top 10 in many key offensive categories, including homers, extra-base hits and total bases. He is ninth on the career home-run list, and his 3,000th hit tied him with Roberto Clemente for 25th in that category.

Palmeiro isn't merely staggering to the finish of a great career. He's been hitting cleanup in the formidable Baltimore lineup and ranks among the team leaders in home runs and RBIs.

"When you look at his numbers, maybe they're not eye-popping like they were at one time," Yankees manager Joe Torre said. "But he's far from hanging on. He's got such a simple stroke; there's not a lot of moving parts."

For Palmeiro, this season has been special for reasons that have nothing to do with his quest to join the exclusive 3,000-500 fraternity. His two boys, Patrick, 15, and Preston, 10, have become fixtures in the Baltimore clubhouse when the Orioles are home.

Before games, Palmeiro often hits each of them grounders or plays catch in front of the Baltimore dugout.

"Other than playing on the field during games, the best experience to me is when I can bring my kids and they can be a part of this," Palmeiro said. "This is not going to last forever. I may be done here in the next few years and I want them to be a part of this. Being around grown men, big league professional players, it rubs off on them in terms of maturity."

Being around Palmeiro has been beneficial to his teammates, too.

"In terms of home runs and RBIs, he's done it more consistently than anybody else in baseball," Orioles outfielder B.J. Surhoff said. "I think the biggest thing that stands out to me is his durability and the number of games he's been able to play every single year. That really says a lot."

Ripken was known as the "iron man," but there's something to be said for Palmeiro's endurance over a 20-year career. Except for the strike-shortened 1994 season, he's played in at least 143 games every year since 1987.

About the only thing he hasn't done is participate in a World Series, but Palmeiro hasn't given up hope.

Thanks in part to his standout play this year, the Orioles have become contenders after a run of seven straight losing seasons.

A week ago, someone asked him whether he would trade his membership in the 3,000-500 club for a World Series ring.

"I don't have either one of them, so I don't know which feels better," Palmeiro replied. "Maybe I'll have both after this year."

One down, one to go.

http://www.braves.net/bravesjournal/bristol/

Those Stephen A. Smith promos make me joyful that baseball is the only sport I follow. What a load of crack.

http://www.nj.com/weblogs/mets/index.ssf?/mtlogs/njo_mets/archives/2005_08.html#073163

"Crosby should try to steal 2nd here. If he gets thrown out, Cano can leadoff the next inning. Cano is batting .421 when he leads off an inning." The broadcast was silent for a few seconds. Steve Phillips seriously said this in the bottom of the 10th of a game in which the home team is losing by a run with two outs...

...not that that's reasonable.

GO BACK TO CALLING BOBBY V COLLECT YOU GRABASS

Like you said, attaching season totals is a sucker science, but you're worthy of ridicule when you throw 40/40 numbers onto Corey Patterson -- expecting him to make baseball history by being only the third person to do that.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-spjon1012,0,4662476.column?coll=ny-top-headlines

I'm sure Beane will take Wang and some Columbus filler for Zito, yes?

Jose Contreras' complete turnaround with the White Sox will be the final straw for Stottlemyre. They'll probably try Mazzone, the Braves' pitching guru, first, but more likely get one of the others."

Unless the money was blammo, which it may very well be, why would you leave SF, Chic or ATL to work for those bunch of lunatics. That just seems like a miserable place to ply your trade as a player, let alone coach.

You were Steven A. Smith before we knew that we hated Steven A. Smith. Why do you still have job?

Sincerely,

Sports fans.

P.S. You are on the same level as Mike and The Mad Dog and don't pretend like you're not.

Miller points out last night that the Chisox were among the league leaders in scoring their runs on homers (40%+) along with Texas, Boston and NYY. Flat Earth Joe flinches and says "That's a misleading statistic. Those other teams don't have the option of manufacturing runs; the White Sox do."

Miller: "You're right. They're not a one-dimensional offense."

They ARE, Blanche. Has anyone since Cosell refrained from kissing ex-jock ass once in awhile?

This is really bad writing even for this guy.

(also tracer needs to hear Miller's Vin Scully impersonation.)

And claiming that Randy Johnson in the '01 series was just following Schilling's lead, or whatever the fuck he's saying.

Skip Bayless, on the other hand, has no redeeming qualities. Everyone I know hates him - and not in an iconoclastic 'hate him so much I have to read' way. He's not a strong writer, he's fairly stupid (based on his ability to craft an argument), he usually manages to find the most ignorant stance possible and defend it to the death, his voice makes your skin crawl. God almighty, how the fuck does the man keep getting jobs - hell, he keeps moving up in the world. Dallas to the Mercury-News to ESPN.

No, the most opportune time would be while facing, say, Jeff Suppan.

Two years late, but this cracked-out analysis of the 2003 World Series is worth your time.

Let’s remember that the Florida Marlins, whom just beat out the New York Yankees in the 2003 World Series, are a collection of players that were acquired indirectly from hoards of money that Florida management threw at high-priced free agents, as compared to the New York Yankees, a team built through its farm system.

You'll read many stories in the news by supposed baseball 'experts' who tout the difference in organizational salaries between the two teams, incorrectly depicting the Marlins as the heros of the 'little guy'. These arguments are stilted and just plain wrong.

He's so blinded by the Yankee way of life that he thinks the Marlins have a DH.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/ny-sphey214478302oct21,0,6355867.column?

All the hits: "antithesis of the cookie-cutter Moneyball manager who goes by the stats," "squeeze," "aren't run by a computer"...

Oh my, what comedic timing.

Don't let the trophy hit you on the way out, Theo
By Ian O'Connor USA TODAY
11/2/2005 7:23:00 PM

Ian O'Connor
USA TODAY

Theo Epstein, 31-year-old executive, is acting half his age. He is walking away from his dream job and dream salary and dream season because his mentor stopped kissing his ring for five minutes, leaving poor Theo to pick up his ball and storm all the way home.

Boy wonder, big blunder. After Brian Cashman zigged and zagged his way through the Yankee power structure and wisely kept a gig he knows will be the best he'll ever have, Epstein reached for a pacifier and wailed his way out the Fenway Park door.

Good riddance, Red Sox fans should shout. Thanks for the historic parade. Don't let the trophy hit you on the way out.

At his bizarre and dishonest news conference Wednesday, Epstein revealed himself for what he is: a baby. A kid who needs to grow up. Cashman can weather year after year of George Steinbrenner's storms, fight off all the owner's back-room operatives, and end up with a lavish contract extension and home-field advantage for business once conducted in a hostile Tampa environment.

Epstein? Larry Lucchino, his baseball elder, suddenly decides to bounce a ball off Theo's forehead, Great Santini style, and the kid goes down faster than the Red Sox did in the first round.

If this is how Epstein was planning to respond when times got tough, really tough, Boston fans should realize they'll be better off without him.

Epstein wore a gorilla suit the other day to put the slip on reporters, but he ended up making a monkey out of himself. He said his rejection of a three-year, $4.5 million extension offer had nothing to do with a suspected Lucchino role in a Boston Globe column that painted Epstein in unflattering shades.

He said there was no power struggle. No chain-of-command issues. No feelings of burnout. Epstein, the local boy made great, the one who shaped a team that ended an 86-year drought, simply said he could no longer "put my whole heart and soul into it."

Epstein refused to identify why, refused to get specific, and this was an immature and irresponsible way to leave his hometown. Boston adored him. Made him the prince of the city. Offered him a free pass from here to eternity for slaying an October legion of demons and doubts.

The city deserved better. Boston deserved plenty more than Epstein showing up Wednesday against a backdrop littered with Red Sox and Dunkin' Donuts logos, showing up in an open-collared, powder blue shirt that wouldn't have made David Stern's grade, and telling a depressed village of broken-hearted admirers that he was bailing for, well, no good reason.

Epstein allowed that there were "complexities" and "ups and downs" in his relationship with Lucchino, the executive who discovered him and made him an intern. But Epstein maintained, "Larry and I like each other."

Lucchino likes Epstein so much he forgot to attend his news conference, an announcement attended by John Henry, the principal owner, and an overflow chorus of computer geeks who served as blind apostles of Epstein's faith.

"You have to believe in the people you work with," the departing GM would say. "You have to believe in the whole organization."

It was his way of saying he didn't believe in Lucchino. It was Epstein's one candid-camera moment of the day.

"Theo is a remarkable young man," Henry said.

He's a quitter, too.

Speaking in whispers and shedding a few tears over what he called "a great, great loss," Henry came across as a hopelessly detached, charisma-free leader, an owner incapable of stopping Epstein from making an obvious career mistake. Henry's body language suggested weakness and indecision, everything Steinbrenner doesn't stand for.

"I hold myself wholly responsible," Henry said. "Maybe I'm not fit to be the principal owner of the Boston Red Sox. ... Never in my wildest dreams did I think this would ever happen. ... Did I blow it? Yeah, I feel that way."

Epstein didn't just leave Henry; he left Henry after his chief aide, Josh Byrnes, took the GM job in Arizona. Maybe the Diamondbacks will get suckered as well. The scorecard on these ridiculously young preppies who are taking over baseball, one baby step at a time, is starting to look spotty: Paul DePodesta couldn't hack it in L.A., and his buddy couldn't hack it in Boston.

"It's the right decision to leave the organization," Epstein said.

Not if that decision was based on Lucchino's ego. Every franchise has a Lucchino, a boardroom player, a suit who knows how to work the field. And proteges worldwide end up getting squeezed by insecure mentors who ultimately decide they've taught their students too well.

Human nature is what it is.

Epstein said last year's World Series title freed him to make this decision, which makes no sense. That championship gave him a free pass to rule in Boston forever.

Wednesday, the kid threw that ticket in the trash. When Epstein grows up, he'll regret the day he acted half his age.

****

Ian O'Connor also writes for The (Westchester County, N.Y.) Journal News

Also:

The scorecard on these ridiculously young preppies who are taking over baseball, one baby step at a time, is starting to look spotty: Paul DePodesta couldn't hack it in L.A., and his buddy couldn't hack it in Boston.

DePo didn't really have a choice, did he? But, yeah, why bother getting your story straight? Human nature is what it is.

Despite his comment about Cashman, if he walked from the Yankees, saying he was fed up with being the owners' whipping boy, I'd have a hard time believing that O'Connor would write anything ressembling this garbage.

Jay Jaffe: Welcome, everybody, to my very first BP Chat. I'm sitting here with a huge smile on my face from having seen a team even better than the World Champion White Sox last night, Brighton, England's rocktronic supestars, the Go! Team. Imagine an inner city pep squad fronting Sonic Youth playing cartoon superhero theme music and you're about there. I don't think Ozzie's squad matches up very well against that.

(I like Go! Team, but I haven't seen them in concert yet)

How inspiring -- and shocking -- it was to see Podsednik drive Astros' closer Brad Lidge's 96-mph fastball over the right-center field fence and into White Sox lore. His 408-foot blast gave Chicago a 2-0 lead over Houston, and helped the Sox sweep the Astros for their first championship in 88 years. As Fox broadcaster Tim McCarver said after the homer, "These things aren't supposed to happen."

It wouldn't have happened if the White Sox hadn't traded Carlos Lee's power for Podsednik's speed last December, a move Chicago Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti opined was like "trading mashers for midgets." In this case, the midget (though Podsednik is 6-feet) won out.

Podsednik proved that smaller, tenacious, fundamentally sound ballplayers are just as exciting and valuable as sluggers, and for that he should be recognized as Sportsman of the Year. For too long, our fascination with the long ball has encouraged guys to become bigger and stronger, and to ignore other aspects of the game. With a crackdown on steroids this season, I renewed my appreciation for little rascals such as Podsednik, the Cardinals' David Eckstein and the Angels' Chone Figgins. All three led their respective teams to the playoffs while combining for 16 homers during the regular season.

Podsednik flourished under manager Ozzie Guillen's small ball approach. From the leadoff spot, Podsednik batted .290 and stole 59 bases in 129 games. Chicago went 81-48 when he played, and 18-15 when he didn't.

Which one will play Alfalfa?

Wait, Jayson Stark didn't write this column?