PECOTA is out

Alfonso Soriano:
.287/.349/.569, below average LF D, 39 HR, 31 SB

Poo-holes:
.331/.428/.617, good D, 39 HR

Barry Bonds:
.267/.441/.535 in 229 PA, brutal D, 12 HR

JD Drew:
.285/.392/.476 in 485 PA, above-average D, 15 HR

Daisuke Matsuzaka:
12-9 in 28G, 4.01 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Zito:
10-11, 28GS, 4.22 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

Randy Johnson:
7-6, 19GS, 3.97 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Brandon Webb
14-11, 3.63 ERA, 1.29 WHIP

Jeremy Bonderman looks like the breakout pick:
14-9, 3.62 ERA, 1.25 WHIP

King Felix:
9-8, 23GS, 3.64 ERA, 1.32 WHIP

A Tale of Two Weavers:
9-9, 27GS, 4.44 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
12-9, 31GS, 3.86, 1.22

I mainly look at PECOTA to see the %age of breakout and decline. I feel that gives me a much better handle on the risk of banking on a player (for your favourite team, fantasy team, or whatever) than a precise, albeit median prediction of a 4.20 ERA in 2007.

PECOTA

waht

:-(

hitters, pitchers, notes

click on each tab.

NL All-Stars:
C: Brian McCann
1B: Pujols
2B: Utley
3B: Cabrera
SS: Bill Hall
RF: Brian Giles
CF: Carlos Beltran
LF: Soriano

AL All-Stars:
C: Mauer
1B: Teixeira
2B: Cano
3B: A-Rod
SS: Jeter
RF: Vlad
CF: Sizemore
LF: ManRam
DH: Hafner

NL MVP: Pujols, Cabrera, Wright
AL MVP: Hafner, Mauer, Ortiz

NL CY: Webb, Peavy, Pedro
AL CY: Johan, Halladay, Bonderman

NL Relief: Wagner, Lidge, Broxton
AL Relief: K-Rod, Nathan, BJ Ryan

Can someone tabulate the ROYs? I'm not sure who's eligible. I know that Tim Lincecum (SF SP) and Philip Hughes (NYY SP) are projecting high.

Yeah, but he's projected to hit a HR in 2007! You wouldn't want to miss this once-in-a-season event!

5-year projected values:
Barry Zito, $34.05mn
Alfonso Soriano, $61.3
Joe Mauer, $150.775
Poo-holes, $153.6
Johan Santana, $96.65
A-Rod, $83.0
Grady Sizemore, $118.075
Barry Bonds, $10.775

Top 5 2007 NL Second Basemen, by PECOTA Projected VORP

Player, Team, EqA, VORP

Chase Utley, PHI, .295, 49.0
Ray Durham, SFN, .295, 38.7
Eric Patterson, CHN, .280, 34.9
Brooks Conrad, HOU, .279, 29.2
Jeff Kent, LAN, .291, 28.2

Do the BP people expect that this guy is going to get significant playing time a 2B this year? He is not even on the radar here in Houston. Right now Biggio start at 2B regularly until he get his 3000th hit, then, according the conventional wisdom, he'll split time there with Mark Lorretta, who the Astros signed in the offseason to be a "super-utility" guy. The other future 2B on the Astros is Chris Burke, who will be playing CF this season now that Willy T has been traded.

So why does BP figure a PECOTA for Brooks Conrad and what makes them think he'll have the 4th best season in the NL at that position?

Basically I think the PECOTA projection means that if Brooks Conrad plays 2B (which he won't) and gets 516 AB (which he also won't) and hits as well as PECOTA projects he will (which given his #s in AAA isn't entirely unwarranted) he would be this valuable over the course of the year (in a league with weak 2B for the most.)

-- Steve Shasta (steveshast...), January 16th, 2007 3:14 PM. (Steve Shasta)

^^^^^OTM x 10000000000000000000000^^^^

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7749

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=190

YSI?

:`(

"Basically 80-82 seems like the absolute worst case scenario to me."

HAHAHA!

Also LOL:

Zito's ERA goin up that much is weird.
-- Dr Morbius (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, January 16, 2007 7:41 AM (1 year ago)

and some!

Joe Kennedy, Swing, TOR:

40 G, 9 GS, 4.78 ERA, 1.50 WHIP

I think it is safe to say that he will underperform his 2008 PECOTA prediction.

Peavy: 212 IP, 223K, 1.13 WHIP, 2.98 ERA

Santana: 225 IP, 239K, 1.08 WHIP, 2.94 ERA

This would be a hell of a Cy Young battle -- the closest matchup in years!

Is Santana's league adjusted?

Yes -- he's listed as a Met.

What are the numbers on the Reds Brandon Phillips?

.274/.325/.444
20 HR, 20 SB
22.4 VORP

are they projecting Ryan Zimmermann over David Wright?

yes, they have Zimmerman at .339/.420/.687

nb: I haven't seen it yet

what do they have wainwright at? also adam lolkennedy?

and the entire starting line up of the Florida Marlins?

Florida, offensively at least, looks okay on paper (Hanley, Uggla, Willingham, Hermida, etc.). Their pitching, on the other hand, looks like TROUBLE.

Byun-Hyung Kim is their projected #3 guy with 6-7, 4.54 ERA, 1.45 WHIP.

Unless the Giants resign Bonds, PECOTA forecast they will have no player with a:

BA: >.293
OPB: >.348
SLG: >.449
OPS: >.781
HR: >15
BB: >37

that is simply disturbing.

just to compare, there are 5 Royals forecasted to have equivalent or higher OPS than the best Giant.

Revive, and let's compare that with the actuals:

BA: .306 (Randy Winn)
OBP: .385 (Ray Durham)
SLG: .445 (Bengie Molina) - advantage PECOTA
OPS: .791 (Fred Lewis)
HR: 16 (Bengie Molina)
BB: 59 (Randy Winn)

09PECOTA YSI? ;-)

Shasta not understanding PECOTA shockah?

Giants sound like YOUR TEAM there

oh no, a Giant hit 16 HR, PECOTA BROKE!

from kevin goldstein:

"According to PECOTA, with a full slate of at-bats, (Matt) Wieters should hit .311 with a .395 on-base percentage and a .544 slugging mark this year. That's good for a .319 EqA. How good is that? Historically great, because it would easily be the highest mark of any catcher in 2009, and only 17 catchers have exceeded that mark in the history of baseball."

am i freaking out already? yes i am.

Oh now I get it... comparing a forecast with actuals as a measure of accuracy is "not understanding" in the magical world of Dr. Morbius.

lol YSI? ;-)

tis pity you don't grasp ranges of probability the way you do the brilliance of Slumdog Millionaire

I can grasp that the upper limits of the model/algorithim underprojected by -22%.

If you think the goal of forecasting/projections without measurable hold-out sample accuracy, you really should just stick to Spielberg toots.

also: YSI?

Matt Wieters is the new Alex Gordon. These guys seem to have short memories.

there's no such thing as a catching prospect

It's more that there is no such thing as a completely can't miss prospect. So few dudes OPS in the mid .900s so predicting that a guy is a sure thing to do just that seems insane to me.

soto seemed to somewhat live up to expectations, no?

I'm not saying rookies don't succeed (although Soto was not on the same level as Gordon/Wieters) just that a lot of can't miss All Star prospects become middle-of-the road ballplayers (*cough cough* Bobby Crosby.)

soto's projection was much less generous - 273/352/470

when was this offbase Alex Gordon forecast? Last year's 50th %ile projection had him with about a point lower VORP than he ended up with (19.6).

His rookie year PECOTA projected him as 280/380/520 w/ GG defense IIRC and Goldstein, Silver, Baseball America, et all talked him up like David Wright Mark II. He uh did not exceed expectations.

Sean Smith's CHONE, which has been shown to be just as good at projecting hitters as PECOTA, has Wieters projected at .274/.352/.439, compared to Mauer at .314/.410/.452, McCann at .297/.368/.503, and Sota at .279/.363/.474.

The new promising kid on the block in the projections world, Brian Cartwright's Oliver, has Wieters projected at .294/.373/.487, Mauer at .308/.377/.435, McCann at .285/.339/.491, and Soto at .270/.338/.443.

*longoriacough*

who is the worst victim of PECOTA-hype ever?

Sean Burroughs?

zomg:

It was during this time that Burroughs was given the nickname "The Bachelor," because all he could hit were singles.[4]

we all eagerly await the SHASTA projections as a followup to all this cherrypicking.

I never look at the damn things aside from the lines in the BP annual.

Mitchel Lichtman has more accurately predicted the # wins per team for the 05-08 seasons than PECOTA.

i have the nu pecota if anyone wants it

SUPERVORP

YSI?

just email me and i'll send it over (include ur email addy)

# of players forecasted to have a higher OPS than Barry Bonds had (1.045) in his final "retirement" season in MLB:

One

Albert Pujols (1.052)

I realize no result standings-wise would be shocking, but still, LOL.

CLE 84-79
MIN 79-83
DET 78-84
KAN 75-87
CHI 74-88

comedy central

parity at long last

A's take AL West with 82 wins

What are the numbers on the Reds Brandon Phillips?

― earlnash, Tuesday, February 12, 2008 8:11 PM (11 months ago) Bookmark Suggest Ban Permalink

.274/.325/.444
20 HR, 20 SB
22.4 VORP

The VORP projection for Brandon Phillips for last year was pretty spot on.

.261 .312 .442
21 HR 23 SB

why that can't be, Steve Shasta has proven it's worthless!

Bruce (St. Paul, MN): PECOTA predicts that Matt Wieters will hit .311/.395/.544 with a .319 EQA, 20 points higher than any other catcher. I know Wieters is a stud, but this seems way to high of a projection for a 22 year old catcher with zero AB's above AA. What are your thoughts?

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:05 PM ET ) PECOTA was built using major-league stats, so I don't think it's as reliable on hitters without any big-league data. I mean, if Wieters does that, that's your AL MVP right there.

further KLaw:

"PECOTA's very good - I wasn't saying that it was bad, just that I trust it more on players with major-league experience."

Jamie Moyer’s card has been removed. He’s too ancient and weird for us to predict any aspect of his performance this year with PECOTA. Our official fantasy advice would be: don’t draft him.

I saw that. Hilarious.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8653

it is completely unbelievable to me that PECOTA has gone this long without being automated.

handmade, dogg

i know--like, they couldn't find a CS major who was looking for a couple months of work?

wieters lol

scottmerkin #White Sox listed in a tie for second with the Tigers at 79-83 through PECOTA projections. Twins win the AL Central at 82-80.

LOOOOL

NYY will miss playoffs.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/PECOTA-projections-say-Yanks-will-miss-playoffs-?urn=mlb,216329

nats at 82-80 haha

this is the most o_O preliminary pecota i've seen yet

also nice of them to throw these up 3 days before my subscription runs out, not sure yet if i'm gonna renew again

ysi?

sent to the gmail in yr profile

<3 u :-*

nats at 82-80 haha

srsly?

pecota is trolling

handmade, dogg

― Past a Diving Jeter (Dr Morbius), Tuesday, March 24, 2009 12:10 PM (10 months ago) Bookmark

lol wtf

wtf what?

you typed "dogg"!

Initial thoughts:

09 World Champs NYY - PECOTA shows huge outlier for Jeter's 09, collapsing back to earth in 2010. Of the 9 Yankee starters (Gardner over Winn btw), only 1 player is projecting UNDER .355 OBP (Cano at .342) which is really scary. New acquisition DH Nick Johnson projects a team leading .420!

In fact, their starters (CC, Vazquez, AJ, Joba) all project high (25-43 VORP) and they've got Rivera so it leads me to believe that PECOTA2010's doom and gloom is all hinged on a questionable 5th starter and mediocre bullpen (all of which can be solved by the all-star break in typical NYY style?)...

Or is it aging defense? I don't get it...

no it can't be defense, only Jeter (-11) and Posada (-4) are rated below league average.

93 wins, though.

yeah rlly, 92-98 wins for all three teams is not a shocking call. Injuries and other unforeseeables will determine the order.

J, I am familiar w/ early 21st century vernacular.

rlyw described pecota as assuming that the bullpen would be terrible and the nyy wouldnt do anything to fix it and so their 93 wins proj was basically bullshit. they also said one of their multipliers was inexplicably high compared to previous years and that = bullshit

"The CAIRO IP are based on the last set of Diamond Mind simulations I ran, averaged over 100 seasons so they don't line up with what the CAIRO spreadsheet, and they need to be tweaked further. I didn't realize Burnett was only pitching 167 innings, for example. However, if you look at where things differ, it's primarily with Burnett and Gaudin in terms of rate of performance, and then in how many innings they're allocating to people like Boone Logan and Jonathan Albaladejo.

Digging a little deeper into what these numbers say, PECOTA isn't displaying total runs allowed so I divided the total 789 runs allowed in their standings by the 673 projected earned runs on the team depth chart to reverse engineer it. Right off the bat this looks off, because the ratio is 1.172. The typical ratio is generally 1.08. In fact, this is really, really, really screwed up. Since 1946, there have been 1507 team seasons. I'm using that cutoff to remove the small glove/ deadball era and the WWII era where you had players who didn't belong in the majors to get closer to the modern error rate. In those 1507 seasons, there have been 59 teams that had a RA/ER ratio that high or worse. So they're either predicting the 2010 Yankees to allow unearned runs at a rate that has happened at a rate of 0.03915063 in the MLB team seasons since 1946, or they screwed something up.

They have some smart guys over there, so my guess is it's the latter. As someone who screws up his spreadsheets constantly, I can understand that. I left a comment over there asking for them to elaborate. So don't worry about these yet."

Neyer is going over the CAIRO projs (which I'd never heard of):

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot

"I'm waiting to be convinced. BP didn't have a good 2009, and there are some squirrelly things people have noticed about the 2010 numbers. "

Steven Strasburg: 1.40 WHIP, 4.07 ERA
Matt Wieters: .289/.363/.464

Best Defenders by Position by League:
1B: Pujols, David Ortiz (lol wut!!!)
2B: Utley, Mark Ellis
3B: Rolen, Longoria
C: Yadier, Dioner
CF: Carlos Gomez, Franklin Gutierrez
LF: Nyjer Morgan, Crawford
RF: Jayson Werth, Ichiro
SS: Tulo, Vizquel

Worst Defenders by Position by League:
1B: Fielder, Miguel Cabrera
2B: Luis Castillo, Alberto Callaspo (?KC)
3B: Mat Gamel (?MIL), Edwin Encarnacion
C: John Baker (?FLO), Josh Bard
CF: Nate McClouth, Torii Hunter
LF: Jason Bay, Travis Snider (?TOR)
RF: Hawpe, Abreu
SS: Yuniesky, Jeter

Eric Seidman, BP:

Reading through the comments of yesterday’s announcement that the PECOTA projections have been released, it is evident that there is a lot of concern over several aspects of the data, ranging from the projected standings to individual quirks. We understand and appreciate that this reflects a lot of passion for what we do here at Baseball Prospectus. To be blunt: we messed up, and are working to fix the issues.

One issue involves the run environment: individual player projections do not match up with the run totals on the projected standings.

Another problem revolves around BABIP, as defense was being double-counted (double-counted).

These and other issues are being worked on and we hope to have an update provided by the end of the day, to unmess up. Please stay tuned for further updates.

and they're unmessed:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

angels last in the west? umm

C: John Baker (?FLO)

he's an original moneyballer

PECOTA predicts that 22/30 teams will finish within five games of .500 = PECOTA thinks MLB is the NFL.

There was a season recently where this just about happened... or, I think, everyone was between .400 and .600.

Obviously PECOTA not apt to predict flameouts and all-goes-right years.

Yeah, but this is a lot more extreme -- they're predicting that more than 70% of MLB teams will finish between .470 and .530!

Not predicting flameouts and all-goes-right years != widespread parity in baseball

I have no idea if there's been a season where 70% of MLB teams have finished between .470 and .530... seems possible. (sounds like the entire NL East in '73)

nats will be a .500 team? really pecota?

Esp. surprising given Strasburg's rather conservative estimates.

I dont see how the Dodgers give up fewest runs in mlb short of legendary pitching performances. The defense isnt that great. The only plus defenders I can think of are Kemp, Blake and Furcal (if you dont count throwing errors). Martins defense has been falling off, and Loney has a good reputation but its not backed up by numbers PECOTA would probably use..

Good point, the only Dodger who showing an above average defensive rating is Martin. NB: Not sure how wonx0red my PECOTA data is, I got it before they admitted it was janky.

Got revised again. Dodgers still have absurdly low runs allowed totals. But slip to 3rd in the NL West behind AZ and Colorado.

They really have to learn not to jump the gun trying to please the panting anticipation of roto maniacs.

seriously. they look like idiots.

I don't look at that stuff in any depth til the last week before the season.

yeah it's crazy to put it out so early given that rosters aren't even really set yet. who cares? but between this and the infamous no index book they've been sort of lame recently.

Kahrl boasted last week that the new annual will have an index.

i saw that; v. nearly started my own slow clap cause that's the least the incredible feat of having an index deserves

PECOTA is down and out

Is anyone other than Goldstein/Kahrl worth reading anymore? Or worth paying for the right to read (more accurately)?

pretty sure i'm gonna cancel when my sub is up in may

yeah, I like Perrotto's weekly reporting.

and the Laurila interviews.

yeah my subscription's up today and i don't think i'll be renewing, i basically only read goldstein at this point, plus the chats (are those subscription only?)

i can get by fine with chone for my projections, in fact i think it's been better than pecota the past couple years!

though admittedly less in-depth

I usually skip Goldstein! I find it hard to care about prospects til I can see em play.

maybe if your team had a real farm system...

Their prospects "play a lot of games."

this is an abomination, i refuse to ask for a ysi of it again next year

I usually skip Goldstein! I find it hard to care about prospects til I can see em play.

Me too.

You don't need to subscribe for the chats (which are normally good, as long as they stick to baseball and don't sidetrack into video games or music, i.e. read Marc Normandin at your own risk), and Steven Goldman's "You Can Look It Up" column is still great (if you're really into baseball history). Speaking of history, I guess Christina Kahrl will be doing the daily analysis column now that Sheehan is gone, but I'm sort of dreading that because when it comes to baseball writing, a bit of creative liscence is definitely a good thing but I can only tolerate so many references to Austrian aristocracy of the 1840's.

now that Sheehan is gone

OK, I've been busy nailing down a job this month. When did this happen?

end of the year--his contract was up i guess? did not know they were under contract. he just said they were going separate ways. i won't really miss him.

CHONE projected standings are out, for comparison...

http://baseballprojection.com/2010/standings2010.htm

looks mostly the same i guess

I dont see how the Dodgers give up fewest runs in mlb short of legendary pitching performances. The defense isnt that great. The only plus defenders I can think of are Kemp, Blake and Furcal (if you dont count throwing errors). Martins defense has been falling off, and Loney has a good reputation but its not backed up by numbers PECOTA would probably use..

― mayor jingleberries, Monday, February 1, 2010 2:17 PM (4 days ago) Bookmark

pecota's pretty bad at understanding defense and projecting rosters, which is why they couldnt anticipate (say) the mariners' run prevention being good enough to have them contending in the west

strange how CHONE predicts the Giants can go from Wild Card Contenders up until the last 8 days of the season to last place in the weak NL West with essentially the same offense (if Randy Winn & Ryan Garko = Mark DeRosa & Aubrey Huff which shouldn't be too difficult to replicate) and an improving pitching staff (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito + closer Wilson)...? Not saying they were fluky last year but they'll probably finish mid-pack in the NL, rather than in the bottom only 2 games ahead of the Nats/Pirates/Astros/Mets.

Ha, this has got to be Nate Silver:
http://www.sporcle.com/user/nrsilver/

supposedly pecota is out.. again.

supposedly it hates the shit out of my team. =( I dont subscribe so I cant see, but Im not sure I really want to.

who's your team again? (sorry)

how has pecota's accuracy been for the last couple years?

i remember the last time a blog did an analysis of all the stat forecast systems and PECOTA ranked below average.

a few years ago TSN (which is the Canadian's little espn) had done their own baseball forecasts - and i'd only looked at the J's stats but TSN was closer than PECOTA was.

my team is the dodgers. my purely speculative and non computer generated prediction is a team obp of .325 this year. or lower.

I just opened PECOTA, and really don't much care about individual player projections.

Not really sure why someone who wasn't a GM or fantasy ballplayer would.

I'm intrigued by the depth charts, though, which aren't out til next week.

When do the Fangraphs projections come out?

those fan projections are dogshit, they're being trolled this year pretty hard. heyward looks to be a top five OFer and tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee.

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?nav=messages&webtag=ml-braves&tid=149282

tommy hanson will pitch better than cliff lee

not impossible, imho!

ZIPS is the best one on fangraphs and it's not up there yet but i'm pretty sure they've all been calculated since they're rolling them out team by team at http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/newsblog/ (ignore the top post, that's a sticky from last year that hasn't been updated)

ok, i guess BP isn't all that bad.. Ferris! http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12877

Is .325 OBP an unrealistic projection for the Dodgers, though? Your strength this season is likely to be your pitching staff, but even so you're likely to be 3rd favourite in the NL West, I'd have thought (ahead of two pretty poor teams).

has the mets @ 80 wins!

noted last week

behind some numbers

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19673

It's out, and projects 73 steals for Billy Hamilton

'tis out

http://www.sbnation.com/2017/2/8/14549012/dodgers-cardinals-pecota-projections

projects Angels at 80-82.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

Steamer really doesn't like Acuña Jr.

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=25,d

vlad jr, 14th-most valuable position player of 2019, just ahead of aaron judge

go bucs

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings