Jack and the Beane Stock: The 2008 Oakland Athletics

They might be the worst team in the AL this year. I'd like to be wrong about that, but they need a lot of guys to get better quickly.

Uh Texas and Kansas City are still pretty bad.

That said I wouldn't be shocked if lose or win 90 games. Young guys can be unpredictable.

Well, that's why I said "might".

MLB.com has their rotation as follows:

1. J. Blanton (who might get traded)
2. R. Harden (who can't stay healthy)
3. C. Gaudin (3-10, 6.30 ERA after the ASB)
4. J. Duchscherer (a reliever, 30 years old)
5. L. DiNardo (5-5, 5.27 ERA post-ASB, 28 years old)

I mean, maybe they'll pitch well, and maybe some of the kids they got can step in and perform, but on paper it's a pretty bad rotation. And Blanton is usually terrible in April and May.

Then look at the Royals. Meche is maybe a little worse than Blanton. Bannister was very good last year, and Grienke looked like something might have clicked. Hochevar is close to being ready.

Then Texas. Texas was a top 10 team in the second half of the season in both ERA and runs scored. They added Broussard and Bradley.

I'm not saying Oakland can't be better than those teams, but it'll be hard.

Hochevar is close to being ready in what world?

All of those are true, but I still like the A's lineup and middle relief and most importantly stadium better than I like Texas and KC.

I am interested in the over/under on games played by Chavez/Crosby...

Hochevar is close to being ready in what world?

Well, he's already advanced to AAA and spent some time on the KC roster last year. They certainly moved him along quicker than I would have, but he's also 24 years old already.

Gonzalez (the guy from the Swisher trade) has two years of AA under his belt. He arguably has a better shot of contributing in 2008 than Hochevar, but Hochevar has the potential for a quick ascent along the lines of Lincecum or Verlander. Of course, both of those guys were already dominating in the minors, unlike Hochevar, so that's probably not likely.

Yeah I've not heard got stuff about Hochevar. At this point I think it's safe to say that #1 pick or no most people would rather have Gonzalez.

GOOD stuff.

wow, the A's were making Lester throw SO many pitches in the 2nd and 3rd. I guess despite the Paleolithics' rejoicing over the demise of Jeremy Brown, Moneyball lives!

(revived to break up all the fucking Bosox threads)

my boy, Harden! 1 run through 6 and 9 Ks - looking good!

Five walks off Daisuke, too.

Hope Harden will have a really good year.

I hope the same for Crosby too. Those guys seem really demoralized by their injuries in interviews.

Harden showing serious composure: loads the bases in the first (pedroia single, youk bb, papi bb), then strikes out both manny and lowell with bases loaded, then retires jd drew. good stuff.

Despite the fact that the A's will likely not be much better than a .500 team this year, I am still super excited to watch these guys play.

It makes me wonder why Beane was shopping Huston Street around so much in the offseason...

Is Huston Street broken in?

Michael Lewis didn't do his due dillegence w/r/t that term, as our old pal gygax! hinted at on the Moneyball thread. That site makes it clear that the ignorance will be perpetuated until the end of the time (or when that domain registry expires.)

What are they really selling, though?

Did your bro gygax! ever start a thread about that WSJ "The Real Most Valuable Players" article by Russell Adams from the April 14, 2007 Wall Street Journalp?

Wow, they have that online archive locked up like Ft. Knox. Help me make a morally dubious decision.

The current A's mgmt are trying to sell advertising, concessions and seats. But back in the day (when they were actually winning World Series), owning that team was one of many hobbies for a guy who had a 9-5 across the bay. And that is what Beane is referring to by "selling jeans" and Lewis didn't catch on to it and now you have that goofy wiki page with what must be some mighty bored people reading it.

Yes, now I have it.

2 scouts, 2 stat guys debate the Moneyball revolution

That looks like it was a pretty good thread back in the day.

As fascinating as the newer article might be, I have too much respect for copyright to do anything more than fair use with it. The online archives only go back 3 months, even for print subscribers.

Harden to DL. Sigh.

They still look like .500 to me.

Eveland's a total surprise to me. Not having seem him pitch, is he really good (obv. no one is really this good, but is he 2-3 starter good) or has he just been really lucky? Big left handers with heat are usually not as undervalued as this dude has been (admittedly he sounds like he has a bit of a weight problem, but so did David Wells ya know.)

Yeah, looks like the only thing keeping Eveland from getting a serious shot was his weight (and potential health issues stemming from said weight -- BP mentions Chris Bosio's knee troubles in one of their PECOTA write-ups). This is his 3rd organization since being drafted -- Brewers traded him to Arizona w/ Doug Davis for Johnny Estrada, then the A's got him in the Haren deal -- but he's only 24. Projections make him look like a #4, but who knows?

David Wells should never be used as an example for anything.

He gets run support.

Also the A's only won 1 Series under Levi's ownership.

So what is the true meaning of selling jeans that Michael Lewis misunderstood? (I wear a solid size 27 now btw :))

He missed that it was a subtle-ish dig about the former ownership other gig. It works just as well in the context that Lewis interpreted it though (i.e. ballplayers do not need to look good to be good.)

"Good face"

Levi's did not own the A's.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_A._Haas,_Jr.

the code fucked that link... add a period to the URL

What's wrong with David Wells?

I was trying to say that Wells is such an outlier that he should never be used as a comparison point.

Well I was just making the obvious over-weight lefty control pitcher w/ velocity, but there are plenty examples of heavy pitchers. Esp. in the AL where dudes don't actually have to move much.

Joe Blanton's not exactly svelte either.

Their women's jeans have lycra in them nyah nyah.

99.9% of womens jeans have lycra. it is not exclusive to a given brand.

12 hits (4 2B), nine runs off Sabathia in 3.1.

I just got 2 free tix for tonight's 7:05pm game. Currently shopping around for a late taker, would any of you local guys have any interest?

Can't make it. Thanks for the offer though!

Would go but I've got class tonight.

Field level tix! Not sure if they are box or not.

Welcome back, Frank Thomas.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3365079

YAY!

I wonder how many starts Cust gets in LF before being DFA'd.

REPLACE THE AGGREGATE

Oakland will be on the hook only for about $337,000

LOL LOL LOL

Still say they're better off with Barton and Sweeney.

I mean, unless they wanna try Sweeney or Barton in LF (which would be a complete disaster!)

They have Rajai Davis now! LF is set! Speeeeeeed!

"Still say they're better off with Barton and Sweeney."

Well Barton isn't going to be much affected by this and I doubt Sweeney stays healthy.

Thing that is amazing about the Thomas money is:

2006 $500K A's
2007-8 $18.2M Blue Jays
2008 $337K A's

There weren't incentives in the A's deal?

All part of Beane's plan?

Well Barton isn't going to be much affected by this and I doubt Sweeney stays healthy.

Mostly I just have a hard-on for Sweeney I guess.

There were incentives, but I mean he met all of them by playing great ya know. He also played well last year for the Blue Jays, but not $18.2M well.

They have Rajai Davis now! LF is set! Speeeeeeed!

-- David R., Thursday, April 24, 2008 10:37 AM (16 minutes ago)

Davis got on base 2x in 18 at bats and had FOUR stolen bases... that's nuts. must be pinch running or something.

this doesnt effect Emil Brown, does it? Linchpin of my HACKING MASS squad.

He also played well last year for the Blue Jays, but not $18.2M well.

9M/yr for 25 HR, 90 RBI is a good deal in the current FA market. Look at how much, say, Andruw Jones is making! (speaking of guys who got off to terrible starts in '08)

Thomas' contract wasn't the problem, the problem was releasing him three weeks into the season and paying him to play for another team!

"Thomas' contract wasn't the problem, the problem was releasing him three weeks into the season and paying him to play for another team!"

Ricciardi and Beane are buds! Look at how he's helping him out!

Toronto is the new Kansas City A's

"9M/yr for 25 HR, 90 RBI is a good deal in the current FA market."

Okay it is a relatively good deal, but seriously compare what Beane paid Thomas the year before and what Beane paid Cust that same year. It's clear that Ricciardi is at least a step or two behind here and he has the misfortune of being in the AL East!

No argument there. And who was the last "power bat" developed within the Jays organization? The fact that we've had to import all of our HR bats since losing Delgado is pretty pathetic.

Thomas scored a run on a walk, and Rajai Davis is 1-1.

OH HI

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/mlb/profiles/players/65x90/4527.jpg
F. Thomas (OAK)
3-3
2 RBI,
BB
@ LAA
Final

And there's a 2B and a 3B up there. Lord knows when he'll make a full return to his me-first HR-hitting ways. He came perilously close last night.

how do you let Thomas get a triple in this day and age!?!?!/

Practice?

Lessons Learned from Eck

how do you let Thomas get a triple in this day and age!?!?!/

i remember when buckner hit an inside the park homerun against (i think) the yankees. claudell washington chased a ball into the right field corner at fenway, over ran it and barreled over the short wall and into the stands. he hurt his leg and couldn't get out and the fenway faithful weren't exactly offering any help. by the time the centerfielder came over to track down the ball billy buck was rounding third on those no-cartilage having knees of his. i swear to god you could hear the bone on bone grinding. the whole play took about 145 seconds.

Thomas looked really, really bad running the bases on that play. It was Kirk Gibson-esque, and he isn't even injured (as far as I know).

When has Thomas ever looked good running (okay I'm sure he looked good when was a LB at Auburn.)

I thought he was a TE?

Whatever he was, I'm sure he could run then.

You guys, BRIAN McCANN has hit a triple this year. So anything's possible.

Mostly I just have a hard-on for Sweeney I guess.

-- polyphonic

poly loves Mike Sweeney.

A's are leading the AL in Most Runs Scored and Fewest Runs Allowed.

poly loves Mike Sweeney.

That is a damned lie! It's pure lust.

poly lusts after MikeSweeney.

dammit, E Brown is killing my HACKING MASS team.

Mike's Weeney, do you guys see yet?

#1 in this week's ESPN power rankings! I really don't get how they're playing so well.

Really really really good pitching and a line up that drives opposing pitcher's crazy/wears them out.

And apparently a lot of luck with runners in scoring position to boot.

billy b is surprised, too.

"Honestly, I went into this season open-minded," Beane said. "I thought this was a team that was going to get better as the season went along, but I didn't know how we'd start at the beginning.

"That said, beyond being pleased that these kids have performed this quickly and the team has come together this quickly, I'd say it's a surprise. I thought at some point we'd get there, but having it come this early has made all of us happy."

The interesting question now is if both Smith and Eveland are able to sustain this kind of performance how long before we see some real interesting wheeling and dealing. A's minor league pitching is positively loaded with talent (Cahill, Simmons, Gonzalez, Rodriguez, Anderson, De Los Santos off the top of my head.)

Also with Denofria going down and Sweeney, R doing not much, I gotta think Carlos Gonzalez (who is tearing up AAA) is going to be up soon-ish.

He's out with an ankle sprain, unfortunately. I'd love to see him tear it up, tho (for the A's sake, and for the sake of my fantasy squad) (OK, more for the latter, tbh).

Oh I heard that he was day to day, but apparently he is now on DL.

Jack Cust lines are pretty hilarious 2 AB 1 R 1 H (2B) 1 RBI 3 BB.

Carlos Gonzalez has a rocket for an arm. Threw out Abreu with a perfect throw yesterday from CF to 3B dead on, no bounce. I was impressed.

To A's

P Dana Eveland
Oakland A's: 5-5, 3.56

P Greg Smith
Oakland A's: 4-5, 3.62

OF Carlos Gonzalez
Oakland A's: .263, 10 RBI

OF Aaron Cunningham
Double-A Midland: .287, 3 HR, 15 RBI

IF Chris Carter
Class A Stockton: .230, 15 HR, 42 RBI

P Brett Anderson
Class A Stockton: 8-4, 4.10

To Diamondbacks

P Dan Haren
Diamondbacks: 6-4, 3.41

P Connor Robertson
Triple-A Tucson: 5-2, 3.94

I'll take it.

Vs Haren tonight.

Oh Jack Cust -- overjumped after turning 10 different directions and turned a fieldable fly ball into an RBI triple.

via Jayson Stark:

Gallagher might not be a pitcher with Harden's star power. But he's exactly what Billy Beane was looking for, said an official of one team -- "a major-league-ready starter who can go straight into their rotation right now but who they get as a 'zero-plus' player. He can pitch for them for 2 1/2 years before he can even go to arbitration."

...Asked Tuesday whether the A's got enough for one of the most overpowering pitchers in baseball, one scout chuckled: "For a guy who might break down tomorrow? Yeah."

Justin Duchscherer's career splits at Oakland:

RP (2003-2007): 270.1 IP, 2.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP
SP (2008): 101 IP, 1.78 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

Pretty impressive.

there's no way he can keep that up tho.

No one can keep up a 1.78 ERA (without a lot of luck anyway.)

I think he can keep up a near 1.1 WHIP though.

Making the A's look kind of dumb for not trying him as a starter for the last five years frankly (although I don't think anyone would have predicted he would be a front of the line starter.)

haha, I was just about to say...

him and cliff lee. i do not understand their seasons.

AL VORP leaders!

it boggles the mind!

does it? aren't cliff lee's babip numbers extremely low?

i take it back...the DUKE has an absurdly low BABIP (.213) compared to a fairly reasonable .290 for cliff lee.

(Lincecum .324!)

Duke also has a very good defense and a cavernous outfield behind him though.

true, however, despite the a's handily leading the league in defensive efficiency, no one else in that rotation even approaches duke's BABIP. closest is greg smith at .260.

(it breaks out then as harden .289, eveland .290; both blanton and gaudin were sporting .300s)

"that's a heck of a way to characterize SI for Kids".

A's thread?

He's weirdly wearing an Athletics jersey,

he was drafted by the A's dude. he was mentioned in moneyball! c'mon dogg u the A's fan around here!!!

history maker:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=280727111

Is he a junk thrower? 13 K in 27 IP.

Meet Brad Ziegler
by Dave Cameron - June 24, 2008

There are several different levels of groundball pitchers floating around major league baseball right now. There are the no-stuff command types who get grounders based on movement and location (Jon Garland, Braden Looper), the guys who have devastating sinkers with average velocity (Derek Lowe, Aaron Cook), and then there’s the power pitchers who hammer the bottom of the zone with fastballs that simply can’t be hit in the air (Brandon Webb, Chien-Ming Wang).

And then there’s Brad Ziegler. He’s a side-arm reliever for the A’s, and his fastball tops out at about 86 MPH. It’s basically his only real pitch - he throws it 89% of the time, mixing in a below average slider just to keep hitters occasionally off balance. Just based on velocity, his stuff could charitably described as marginal. If he was a lefty, he’d be described as crafty, which is code for can’t-break-glass-with-his-fastball.

But what he lacks in velocity, he makes up for in movement and deception. His fastball has so much sink, in fact, that in his first 11 1/3 innings of major league pitching, he’s posting a 73.5% GB% and an 8.33 GB/FB rate. He’s faced 40 batters since the A’s brought him up from Triple-A, and a whopping three of them have managed to hit the ball in the air.

Apparently, Billy Beane missed having Chad Bradford in the bullpen, so they decided to create another one. Until 2006, Ziegler was a traditional over the top pitcher, but given his limited chances to make the majors as a “normal” pitcher, the A’s convinced him to become a side-arming reliever. It’s worked wonders, as he hasn’t given up a home run since at any level, and he’s run a GB% of 60% or higher at every stop along the way.

Because of his delivery and his repertoire, Ziegler’s always going to be more of a ROOGY than a true dominating relief ace, as lefties will enjoy seeing that fastball come in from the low arm slot, but he’s clearly got enough movement on his fastball to be a nightmare for right-handed hitters in late game situations. Once again, the A’s demonstrate just how easy it is to build a quality bullpen, converting a fringe prospect into a real weapon coming out of their bullpen.

lol @ ROOGY

cla meredith

sheen will come off this kid pretty soon, esp since, as stated, lefties will mash him

I thought Webb WAS a guy with a devastating sinker. Also, Wang is a power pitcher?

huh huh. wang power.

Wang has a mid-90s fastball.

Both Wang and Webb have devastating sinkers. They just have more velocity than the guys listed above them in that paragraph.

IIRC Webb's sinker is low 90s.

This beaut was clocked at 89:

http://swingtraining.net/Carlos/Webb/sicksinker.gif

Ziegler:
IP: 30
ERA: 0.00
WHIP: 0.83
K:BB: 14:7 (2.0)
GB:FB: 59:12 (4.9) = #1 in MLB

Street gets demoted!

"I feel confident they're going to keep me in that role because that's where I belong."

Street gets demoted to co-closer!

Way to forget key details!

"I think we should see other people" =/= demotion?

Gave up three hits, two walks, three earned runs in one non-closing inning today.

38 scoreless innings for Ziegler

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7925

Friday in Chicago: Phils-Cubs
J. Blanton (6-12, 4.75) vs. R. Harden (9-2, 2.00)

Blanton will attempt to score from third on a passed ball and collide with Harden. Both will be out for the remainder of the season.

http://i.cdn.turner.com/sivault/multimedia/photo_gallery/0809/did.you.see.that.0926/images/brad-ziegler.jpg

ZIEGLER

is that a part of that times article about lolita chic?