Ref Bias

some people will tell you this doesn't exist. they're obviously beneficiaries, and lying fuckers to boot.

http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4079/4881942401_d91b75f5e0.jpg

SPL thread to thread.

obv, utd are the prime PL examples. studies will prob show no significant bias, but we've all had the big calls go against us playing utd home and away.

what are the contibutory factors? weak refs/strong badge? active favour for a big brand team? bungs? wrath of fergie? just easier to give the call that allows for the natural order of things (big team wins)?

venality/stupidity/cowardice/pedantry/dishonesty

not happy with 'dishonesty' being the only/furthest consideration for planned favouritism here.

i mean, endemic reluctance to punish a player like vidic, what is that

cowardice

Madjid Bougherra gets the same up here, should be alternating red cards with suspensions for an entire season.

The amount of game-changers that go against Celtic/for Rangers is incredible over the last few years. However I cannot think of a single controversial decision that has materially disadvantaged Rangers in terms of dropped points.

lock thread

I don't really pay enough attention to the vagaries of different referees in The Best League In The World, but Vidic does seem to get away with quite a lot.

sometimes think refs are so used to seeing the big four win that they subconsciously make it happen with their decisions, if it's not happening. like of course man u will get a penalty, they aren't going to lose this game ffs.

vidic, carragher, terry. big teams get one cb that's got to do a lot before he gets any serious calls against him. wenger though he'd made progress with vermaelen but dude's too good. they need a real clogger beside him to take full advantage of their ref bias pass.

xp i think that's true alright ronan, it was kind of what i was getting at with

just easier to give the call that allows for the natural order of things (big team wins)?

yes, that is the main reason i think.

it's not the big team's fault, although obviously fuck john terry

yeah i think that's it. there are all sorts of human probs with referees. like how many times do defenders get a free kick for a 50/50 or when they're the ones fouling cos it's an easier decision than giving a peno the other way.

penalties in particular often feel like they are like...okay only partially, but at the mercy of the atmosphere and flow of the game.

has anyone ever written a book about the psychology of all this...like eg basic example a ref giving a pen to one team, then being more likely to give one to the other. but are there more complex versions of that?

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Celtics-Paranoia-All-Mind-Tom-Campbell/dp/0954743105

Obviously not terribly wide-ranging in scope, but it's a start.

If anyone knows of a book covering what Ronan's talking about, I'd like to read it.

This came out recently, and is mostly American in scope, but it has a lot of "soccer" content - they argue p.strongly that a very large percentage of "home advantage" is actually unconscious ref bias.

That looks pretty interesting, thanks!

some people will tell you this doesn't exist. they're obviously beneficiaries, and lying fuckers to boot.

I know what you mean, but I wouldn't say that Rafael's sending off really qualifies as cast-iron evidence of a pro-Spurs conspiracy.

iyy wasa ina the bad moment

Bump fuckin bump

Gneville Rooney vidic scholes fletcher

Am I missin anyone obvious on that rather obvious list

There's another aspect of ref bias too, one that occurs to me when watching skilful teams like spurs or arsenal take on cloggers like Stoke or utd- when a team's 'talent' is to be a shower of dirty, cynical cunts, the ref seems to allow a lot more leeway than with a technically-gifted team that 'should' be able to beat the opposition using, y'know, legal methods. Kinda like an accepted balancing method.

Bias is interesting. Terry has got away with a few -but really not many - but has also been singled out by some refs who want too look tough. And somebody like Mikel will consistently pick up a yellow for his first foul because he has a reputation that has almost enturely been created by bad refereeing in the first place.
Chelsea got away with a lot under Mourinho, then spent two seasons being punished for that by refs out for revenge - Terry and lampard both had red cards rescinded (lampard get sent off for being fouls by Alonso at Anfield once), Drogba and Anelka couldn't get pens, Mikel was a walking yellow.

It's about back to normal now.

My favourite quote on the topic comes from Mark Hughes though, who joined Chelsea in 95 and expressed utter mystery that he was suddenly getting booked for the sort of tackles he'd made every week at Old Trafford without punishment.

Why did he get away with it? Then as now, refs are shit-scared of Fergie.

Clattenburg told the FA on Monday that he feels he took the appropriate action, which means the governing body cannot launch disciplinary proceedings against the 25-year-old England forward.

Scared silent by Ferguson. Long thought that FIFA should introduce a rule that managers are not allowed to comment on refs before or after any fixture based on the way I've seen refs manipulated/intimidated by Mourinho, Ferguson, Barcelona and just about everybody else.

That, I think, is what the referees were striking for up here. No idea, tbh, because they kept changing their mind about what the fuck they were doing every five minutes. There was definitely a statement along the lines of they would withdraw their labour unless they got written assurances that no-one would ever question their integrity. Don't think they actually got it. But they're back anyway.

c&p'd from bbc page but i've added the sics

"The FA have now gone down the path where, if the referee sees and (sic) incident and acts upon it, whether he is write (sic) or wrong, they will support him and stick with it"
Former referee (sic) Graham Poll

no easier to justify after 90 mins being on the right end of it.

don't want to shit up the premier league thread unnecessarily, but fuck coward cheating refs and fuck centre halves at bigger clubs that are immune to red cards

tbf to the lad he'd already given West Ham two pens

thus invalidating his FA contract iirc

yeah well then he had nothing to lose, blaze of glory etc

anyway, I've said it before, I'll say it now: there should be an FA panel on Monday mornings where refs are shown their performance on video and asked to explain the questionable decisions they've made. then fucking sacked.

lol u fucking clown

u can't be serious

an actual video?

RUINING THE GAME TRADITION ETC

i'm very rarely annoyed by officials not seeing something in real time that pundits pick up later with 6 camera angles and slo-mo, but inconsistent application of the laws is absolutely infuriating

the only possible compromise is 6 whippets in cloth caps and 6 of those gambling dogs in smoking jackets testifying as to their best recollection of the incident. casting vote goes to a panel of bobby moore's world cup medal, the queen mum gawd blesser and alex ferguson obv

tbh, what's the rule on where a foul takes place for vidic's peno concession? tho it does look on the line and therefore in to me, but sir alex will not be delighted

you mean in terms of a red? I reckon you can be denied a clear goal-scoring opportunity on the halfway line in the right circumstances.

no, for the penalty he conceded against cole.

and yeah, i remember solskjaer getting a red against....newcastle?... close to the halfway in maybe 97 so you're right about the other

shit got real huh

	Red	Yellow	Fould	Fouls per yellow	Fouls per red
Newcastle United	2	67	408	6.089552239	204
Stoke City	2	54	362	6.703703704	181
Aston Villa	2	60	404	6.733333333	202
Manchester City	5	61	413	6.770491803	82.6
Arsenal	6	49	360	7.346938776	60
Sunderland	5	50	373	7.46	74.6
Tottenham Hotspur	2	43	322	7.488372093	161
Wolverhampton Wanderers	2	49	370	7.551020408	185
Manchester United	3	46	349	7.586956522	116.3333333
Liverpool	2	50	382	7.64	191
West Ham United	1	51	392	7.68627451	392
Wigan Athletic	4	54	417	7.722222222	104.25
Chelsea	1	44	342	7.772727273	342
Blackburn Rovers	5	52	407	7.826923077	81.4
Birmingham City	1	43	344	8	344
West Bromwich Albion	6	44	353	8.022727273	58.83333333
Bolton Wanderers	4	54	434	8.037037037	108.5
Blackpool	2	37	347	9.378378378	173.5
Everton	3	41	413	10.07317073	137.6666667
Fulham	0	37	384	10.37837838	0

I hope that worked

Not very well. Rubbish. It's meant to be a Fouls per yellow/per red table for this season's premiership. I suppose I'm thinking that a biased ref will still give the foul but not a card, so a high Fouls per Yellow score would equal a ref-favoured team. Lots of reasons why this doesn't work, of course, but its fun to think about.

i'm havin trouble there tbh

ANother go.

			Red	Yellow	Fould	Fouls per yellow	Fouls per red
Newcastle United	2	67	408	6.089552239		204
Stoke City		2	54	362	6.703703704		181
Aston Villa		2	60	404	6.733333333		202
Manchester City		5	61	413	6.770491803		82.6
Arsenal			6	49	360	7.346938776		60
Sunderland		5	50	373	7.46			74.6
Tottenham Hotspur	2	43	322	7.488372093		161
Wolverhampton Wanderers	2	49	370	7.551020408		185
Manchester United	3	46	349	7.586956522		116.3333333
Liverpool		2	50	382	7.64			191
West Ham United		1	51	392	7.68627451		392
Wigan Athletic		4	54	417	7.722222222		104.25
Chelsea			1	44	342	7.772727273		342
Blackburn Rovers	5	52	407	7.826923077		81.4
Birmingham City		1	43	344	8			344
West Bromwich Albion	6	44	353	8.022727273		58.83333333
Bolton Wanderers	4	54	434	8.037037037		108.5
Blackpool		2	37	347	9.378378378		173.5
Everton			3	41	413	10.07317073		137.6666667
Fulham			0	37	384	10.37837838		N/A

it's an interesting stat, but really it doesnt do much for eg vidic, terry, neville reds/penalties, which is where i think a lot of the obvious ref copout/bias occurs.

Also ignores that when some teams/players foul you, they *really* foul you.

Also ignores goals that are three feet over, penalties given where your goalie has made a good save, your captain being booked for encroaching on a clattenberg/rio conversation after yet another farce at OT, etc

"so a high Fouls per Yellow score would equal a ref-favoured team"

or a team whose fouls are not particularly grievous

cf. arsenal's 1 red/60 fouls.

xp otm

the kind of decision that, were it genuinely an honest mistake, could happen anytime, yet only ever seems to benefit two or three teams in english football. strange.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0YiuSbBdaQ

Like Reading

there's an actual honest mistake, they gotta happen too.

Or that crazy West Ham one against Blackburn a few years ago?

honest mistakes happen too, can't omit them.

Neil Lennon saying on Twitter this afternoon that he thinks this afternoon's bad refereeing at Hampden was 'personal'.

otm

what did andre marriner on that game today?

the only possible compromise is 6 whippets in cloth caps and 6 of those gambling dogs in smoking jackets testifying as to their best recollection of the incident. casting vote goes to a panel of bobby moore's world cup medal, the queen mum gawd blesser and alex ferguson obv

― the salmon of procrastination (darraghmac)

that thing where you lol at reading an old post but stop guiltily when you realise it was you

I'd thought they'd doctored the footage of Halsey getting applauded off today (shades of Jeff Winter) but then I realised he'd had cancer

yeah he's been fighting it for a few years

A masterclass in the subtleties of ref bias imo