Meanwhile, over in Georgia

I actually never thought I'd say it, but thank god Bush is in the White House right now and not McCain. Because McCain has made it clear that if he was president, he'd precipitate a Cold War over this.

does anyone think the russians will enter the capital?

i've heard russian tanks are moving around, but are they actually on their way to the capital?

I hope they do. Imagine if Cuba, thinking that Russia supported them, attacked the Florida Keys or PR? We would march in and burn down Havana.

xps only if mccain gets elected.

it should be obvious that this is a serious but not world-threatening ethnic/border/territory dispute turned violent, with disastrous effects to people living there, but of no need to turn into a russia-us confrontation. unless we decide to make it one, which mccain and the claque of mostly disgraced neocons that have surrounded him fully believe is a fantastic idea.

from what i've read russia wants to weaken georgia, not own it.

xp again; i really hope the don't, christ that would be terrible

From that article:

Russia has accused Georgia of committing "genocide" in its assault on the rebel republic, which they say killed at least 2,000 civilians and displaced 34,000.

Western human rights monitors caution that it's too early to make any judgments about what happened. But Lev Ponomaryov, head of the Moscow-based Movement for Human Rights, says he hopes the West will hold Saakashvili's feet to the fire on this issue.

"I can't say whether this is a case of genocide, but it certainly is a humanitarian catastrophe," he says. "The methods Saakashvili used to establish constitutional order have to be condemned by the international community."

Well, the Keys or Puerto Rico were never part of Cuba -- at least South Ossetia's been part of Georgia since the Stalin days -- but I get your point.

Views on what this means for Nagorno Karabakh?

I don't know if this has been posted yet, but a really great breakdown on the situation by Charles King: http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/radio/2008/08/11/king/index.html

what the fuck, mccain 'announces' he's sending lieberman and lindsey graham as his own envoys to georgia:

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/mccain_announces_that_lieberma.php

I don't know why it would make a difference in Nagorno-Karabakh -- unless you're concerned that it will embolden the Armenians (who think they need to act before Azerbaijan does what Georgia did) or Azerbaijanians (who are inspired? or think they need to show strength in the face of Russia?) and escalate the violence.

I mean, it just seems to me like anything you would say about N-K would be speculation.

hahahaha man I hope McCain really fucks up his standing over this

if anything exposes what a totally ludicrous foreign "policy" he would execute, this could be it

Yeah, this more than anything makes me fear for a McCain presidency. "real life consequences"

McCain has made it clear that if he was president, he'd precipitate a Cold War over this.

-- Mordy

Except he's actually sending people to Georgia. And he's still a Senator making decelerations about what we should do in Georgia. His actions already have consequences. Saakashvili is citing McCain as an example for US support.

sending people = sending political envoys. not sending soldiers, obv.

Of course...

Will John McCain turn Tsar Putin’s invasion of Georgia into a drill, drill, drill issue? He should. It will throw Democrats even more on the defensive — especially Sen. Obama whose weak response to Putin’s neo-Soviet actions have already put him way behind the eight ball on Russia.

McCain’s responses have been superb. And President Bush today adopted many of them — in particular the warnings on world trade, the G8 (G7?), and a Truman-like airlift of humanitarian assistance relief. Even sending Condi Rice over there and putting SecDef Bob Gates into play.

McCain has been appropriately tough all along. And this Putin ploy will resonate with voters much more than Beltway pundits believe.

any chance of the russians entering tbilisi?

i am shitting it here

You are shitting Tblisi? ow

The "cold" war is starting before he may take office. And by sending other Repubs over there he's upping the ante for what "soft on foreign policy" Obama must do - stupid to us, but as strategy may work. What doesn't when everything can be spun into a foreign policy = "national security"/"protecting Democracy" issue?

Yes, I know Media CW is that this is good for McCain. But obv that's because most of the media are fucking idiots.

Not to mention: TNR??

You are shitting Tblisi? ow

-- HI DERE, Wednesday, August 13, 2008 3:06 PM (21 seconds ago) Bookmark Link

Roffle. Jeremy you may want to find a tranquilizer gun and step away from teh internets the next few days, if you can't handle the fact that Russia doesn't want NATO on its southern doorstep

major x-post to Larry drill-kill-thrill Kudlow via Alfred up there.

I wouldn't freak out quite yet. I know Saakashvili is claiming that the Russians are marching on Tblisi, but he's pushing hard for Western invention. Not saying that they /aren't/ going to occupy Tblisi, but I'd take it with a grain of salt at the moment.

just tell me the us and russia won't be fighting anytime soon.

>Saakashvili is citing McCain as an example for US support.

They're "friends" - McCain visited him and they went for a picnic on the Black Sea last year.

Will have to find the link

I don't think they'll be fighting anytime soon. XP

Saakashvili sounded, shall we say, unhinged on network TV this morning. I know his people are dying, but he (shrewdly) pushed every signifier beloved of American punditocracy ("freedom-loving," "Cold War," "appeasement").

I am curious how this actually IS playing out with Americans cuz I really really really have a hard time envisioning the Republican base getting all fired up about protecting the "democracy" of some proto-petro-dictatorship they've never heard of when they're all getting laid off/can't pay for gas/losing their homes.

x-post

I know they're friends. (Has this been posted yet?)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/12/AR2008081202932_pf.html

I don't think they'll be fighting anytime soon. XP

Just to be safe, though, go grab the nearest person and have sex with them; you never know if it'll be your last chance before the bomb.

A few old Cubans called in today to say that Russia's actions are "nothing less" than Czechoslovakia in '68. Most people are buying school supplies.

(xxpost)

Just to be safe, though, go grab the nearest person and have sex with them; you never know if it'll be your last chance before the bomb

Fuck you -- I've been using this line for years.

Believing that this is similar to Czech in 68 assumes that you totally ignore every fact of the situation.

>>I am curious how this actually IS playing out with Americans cuz I really really really have a hard time envisioning the Republican base getting all fired up about protecting the "democracy" of some proto-petro-dictatorship they've never heard of when they're all getting laid off/can't pay for gas/losing their homes.

You live in San Francisco, right? I remember back in the summer of 04 some NYC Ilxors were pretty overconfident re: Kerry, and I would also waste my on the (god forbid) AOL message boards, and I had a more pessimistic-realist view. (And Hi DERE made a good funny about it, but I can't remember it just now :) I have the same feeling now (though like you, I'm also a Californian and "don't know any/many/one who'd vote McCain" - in fact, I know of Obamacans) ...considering that Ohio, Michigan, PA and Florida are going to call this election again

Michigan is on the verge of turning red before all of this even took place. Blame Kwame. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1828307,00.html

Mordy that hadn't been posted before...but no I'm specifically looking for the Black Sea picnic link I saw yesterday

All the "3AM moment HAS happened" talk is also making me angry, and, um, the "leftist" label on Obama doesn't help either

I think McCain could win, even tho living in NYC makes you think otherwise. But I don't underestimate what masses of low-info voters will do.

What really annoys me about this is that everyone is trying to spin this as a win for McCain. And I think this is an enormous lose. But everyone will think it's a win, because no one thinks for themselves.

And like I said yesterday, all the "Russia invades Georgia," without mentioning Ossetia - even skewereing of *that* head line on Jon Stewart last night - don't help

*headlines

Vichitravirya: As you say, McCain may well win this election, but Georgia won't have much to do with it. Shakey's doubts about the political mileage that can be squeezed out of this conflict = OTM.

For the moment, anyway...

To clarify Russia is NOW invading Georgia, but that isn't what happened last Thursday-Friday

Saakashvili, is he a bit of a mentalist? regardless of the rights and wrongs of the situation, restorting to military force against an enemy who will stuff you out of it is surely never a wise course of action.

"The Ossetians, who claim to have inhabited the same territory for centuries, say their nation was broken in two by Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin"

lol at the AP's hedging on Ossetian history! it's practically "Stalin is claimed to have killed many people during his reign"

"Hitler, who Jews claim instigated a Holocaust costing many millions of lives..."

"The Sun, which many say rises in the morning, took several hours to cross the sky today"