Meanwhile, over in Georgia

Yeah, this more than anything makes me fear for a McCain presidency. "real life consequences"

McCain has made it clear that if he was president, he'd precipitate a Cold War over this.

-- Mordy

Except he's actually sending people to Georgia. And he's still a Senator making decelerations about what we should do in Georgia. His actions already have consequences. Saakashvili is citing McCain as an example for US support.

sending people = sending political envoys. not sending soldiers, obv.

Of course...

Will John McCain turn Tsar Putin’s invasion of Georgia into a drill, drill, drill issue? He should. It will throw Democrats even more on the defensive — especially Sen. Obama whose weak response to Putin’s neo-Soviet actions have already put him way behind the eight ball on Russia.

McCain’s responses have been superb. And President Bush today adopted many of them — in particular the warnings on world trade, the G8 (G7?), and a Truman-like airlift of humanitarian assistance relief. Even sending Condi Rice over there and putting SecDef Bob Gates into play.

McCain has been appropriately tough all along. And this Putin ploy will resonate with voters much more than Beltway pundits believe.

any chance of the russians entering tbilisi?

i am shitting it here

You are shitting Tblisi? ow

The "cold" war is starting before he may take office. And by sending other Repubs over there he's upping the ante for what "soft on foreign policy" Obama must do - stupid to us, but as strategy may work. What doesn't when everything can be spun into a foreign policy = "national security"/"protecting Democracy" issue?

Yes, I know Media CW is that this is good for McCain. But obv that's because most of the media are fucking idiots.

Not to mention: TNR??

You are shitting Tblisi? ow

-- HI DERE, Wednesday, August 13, 2008 3:06 PM (21 seconds ago) Bookmark Link

Roffle. Jeremy you may want to find a tranquilizer gun and step away from teh internets the next few days, if you can't handle the fact that Russia doesn't want NATO on its southern doorstep

major x-post to Larry drill-kill-thrill Kudlow via Alfred up there.

I wouldn't freak out quite yet. I know Saakashvili is claiming that the Russians are marching on Tblisi, but he's pushing hard for Western invention. Not saying that they /aren't/ going to occupy Tblisi, but I'd take it with a grain of salt at the moment.

just tell me the us and russia won't be fighting anytime soon.

>Saakashvili is citing McCain as an example for US support.

They're "friends" - McCain visited him and they went for a picnic on the Black Sea last year.

Will have to find the link

I don't think they'll be fighting anytime soon. XP

Saakashvili sounded, shall we say, unhinged on network TV this morning. I know his people are dying, but he (shrewdly) pushed every signifier beloved of American punditocracy ("freedom-loving," "Cold War," "appeasement").

I am curious how this actually IS playing out with Americans cuz I really really really have a hard time envisioning the Republican base getting all fired up about protecting the "democracy" of some proto-petro-dictatorship they've never heard of when they're all getting laid off/can't pay for gas/losing their homes.

x-post

I know they're friends. (Has this been posted yet?)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/12/AR2008081202932_pf.html

I don't think they'll be fighting anytime soon. XP

Just to be safe, though, go grab the nearest person and have sex with them; you never know if it'll be your last chance before the bomb.

A few old Cubans called in today to say that Russia's actions are "nothing less" than Czechoslovakia in '68. Most people are buying school supplies.

(xxpost)

Just to be safe, though, go grab the nearest person and have sex with them; you never know if it'll be your last chance before the bomb

Fuck you -- I've been using this line for years.

Believing that this is similar to Czech in 68 assumes that you totally ignore every fact of the situation.

>>I am curious how this actually IS playing out with Americans cuz I really really really have a hard time envisioning the Republican base getting all fired up about protecting the "democracy" of some proto-petro-dictatorship they've never heard of when they're all getting laid off/can't pay for gas/losing their homes.

You live in San Francisco, right? I remember back in the summer of 04 some NYC Ilxors were pretty overconfident re: Kerry, and I would also waste my on the (god forbid) AOL message boards, and I had a more pessimistic-realist view. (And Hi DERE made a good funny about it, but I can't remember it just now :) I have the same feeling now (though like you, I'm also a Californian and "don't know any/many/one who'd vote McCain" - in fact, I know of Obamacans) ...considering that Ohio, Michigan, PA and Florida are going to call this election again

Michigan is on the verge of turning red before all of this even took place. Blame Kwame. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1828307,00.html

Mordy that hadn't been posted before...but no I'm specifically looking for the Black Sea picnic link I saw yesterday

All the "3AM moment HAS happened" talk is also making me angry, and, um, the "leftist" label on Obama doesn't help either

I think McCain could win, even tho living in NYC makes you think otherwise. But I don't underestimate what masses of low-info voters will do.

What really annoys me about this is that everyone is trying to spin this as a win for McCain. And I think this is an enormous lose. But everyone will think it's a win, because no one thinks for themselves.

And like I said yesterday, all the "Russia invades Georgia," without mentioning Ossetia - even skewereing of *that* head line on Jon Stewart last night - don't help

*headlines

Vichitravirya: As you say, McCain may well win this election, but Georgia won't have much to do with it. Shakey's doubts about the political mileage that can be squeezed out of this conflict = OTM.

For the moment, anyway...

To clarify Russia is NOW invading Georgia, but that isn't what happened last Thursday-Friday

Saakashvili, is he a bit of a mentalist? regardless of the rights and wrongs of the situation, restorting to military force against an enemy who will stuff you out of it is surely never a wise course of action.

"The Ossetians, who claim to have inhabited the same territory for centuries, say their nation was broken in two by Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin"

lol at the AP's hedging on Ossetian history! it's practically "Stalin is claimed to have killed many people during his reign"

"Hitler, who Jews claim instigated a Holocaust costing many millions of lives..."

"The Sun, which many say rises in the morning, took several hours to cross the sky today"

"However, groups representing cave-dwellers criticised the reports for lack of inclusivity"

I have a REALLY bad feeling about American troops in Georgia, as in flashforward to a nuke exchange... "No one ever thought it would happen this way after W looked into Putin's eyes..."

The US and Russia are not gonna exchange nukes over this. Period. That's crazy talk.

http://www.wereldoorlog1418.nl/warpictures/begin/images/01-sarajewo-dwo-011.jpg

Today's conspiracy theory: Apparently the US has been massing aircraft carriers in the Gulf, and there are many more there now than there "should" be. The US prodded Saakashvili into provoking a Russian invasion, which now makes it impossible for Russia to complain when the US unveils its *real* goal from this series of events, which is a US attack on Iran.

No, really - there are actually people here who this makes sense.

why would russian involvement in georgia have any effect on any reaction to us war with iran

http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/08/washington-to-saakashvili-shut-up.html

Bush left enough threads dangling that one could infer a wide range of possible US actions - and from this administration, you certainly wouldn't rule out the most aggressive strategies. There is an element of the 'madman theory' in action here: let the world think we're about nuts enough to do anything, and they'll go along with our preferred strategy with some relief and gratitude. Saakashvili spoiled it by blustering that, uh huh, America was going to take over Georgia's airports and sea ports and run them from Washington. This provoked an immediate denial from his nervous American backers....

It seems as if there is an effort by some in the defense establishment to take the heat out of Bush's remarks. The US military leadership may not want anything that could even approach a confrontation with Russia - but the civilian leadership is quite ruthless and has a knack for outmanoeuvering its opponents in the state. Regionally, the US may also decide to up its game. The presence of US troops across the former Soviet states has thus far been quite limited: no need for them as long as there's a pro-Washington regime and no serious military threat. Although the 'lily-pads' are significant in terms of their potential uses, securing strategic routes for US troops should the need arise, the total number of US troops in the former Soviet countries as of 2005 was 132 (by contrast, there were over 35,000 troops stationed in Japan and almost 30,000 in South Korea). In light of intensified struggles in the Caucasus and Central Asia, that figure may rise substantially. And as I have said before, even if the current dilemmatic is temporarily resolved, it is bound to flare up again soon. The fact that this contest is rooted in something as central to global capitalism as the extraction and transport of energy means that it is permament and inclined to escalate - and that ought to give us a presentiment of real horror.

xpost

The idea is that with Russia out there conducting its rogue war, when the US invades Iran, Russia wouldn't be a credible voice to oppose the US attack. (As far as I followed it.)

If it does kick off in Iran, no-one is going to give two hoots what Russia might or might not be up to in Georgia

I don't know what to make of all this.

http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/08/13/did-karl-rove-chat-to-saakashvili-about-south-ossetia-too/

Did Karl Rove Chat to Saakashvili about South Ossetia Too?
By: emptywheel Wednesday August 13, 2008 12:41 pm
42
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The White House has started to panic over a July 9 meeting between Condi Rice and Mikheil Saakashvili, desperate to suggest they didn't encourage Georgia's crack-down in South Ossetia. Given that panic, I wonder whether Karl Rove had any similar chats with Saakashvili when they were in Yalta together just days later?

Now, there's been a lot of justified chatter about the role of Randy Scheunemann, who appears to be advising the Republic of Georgia at the same time as he provides campaign advice to John McCain.

Sen. John McCain's top foreign policy adviser prepped his boss for an April 17 phone call with the president of Georgia and then helped the presumptive Republican presidential nominee prepare a strong statement of support for the fledgling republic.

The day of the call, a lobbying firm partly owned by the adviser, Randy Scheunemann, signed a $200,000 contract to continue providing strategic advice to the Georgian government in Washington.

Given the way McCain has boasted of his frequent calls to Saakashvili in attempts to reclaim the mantle of the best international leader, it raises questions of whether the Administration's "see no evil" approach to Georgia was part of a deliberate campaign strategy.

Particularly when you consider the fact that Karl Rove may have met with Saakashvili just days after the July 9 private dinner between Condi and Saakashvili that the White House, State, and DOD are now panicking about. Rove was in the neighborhood, in Yalta, at a conference with Saakashvili three days after the meeting (h/t brendanx).

Anything to win an election, right? I don't know.

"Rove was at the Y.E.S. (Yalta European Strategy) conference. Along with Tony Blair, Mikulas Dzurinda, Aleksander Kwasniewski, William Taylor, and a couple hundred of their closest friends."

http://www.yes-ukraine.org/

Anyway, the $200,000 fee for lobbying on behalf of Georgia by Scheunemann is no conspiracy theory. But the guy has a great resume: http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/06/17/randy_scheunemann_mccain_advis.html

McCain's connections to Saakasvili are well known to those who are paying attention and I wouldn't put it past McCain (or rather, his advisers) to have a plan beforehand to exploit this to their mutual benefit.

Thx Mitya for responding to Ned's question.

More on this fiasco's perception in Russia. From a Czech paper:

http://www.tol.cz/look/TOL/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=282&NrSection=2&NrArticle=19850

The highly emotional media coverage of the conflict has helped to inflame public opinion. Most of those polled by the Russian media hold the view that the conflict was a provocation on the side of the United States, the country that they believe "perceives Russia as its main competitor."

According to a recent poll conducted by the influential nationwide polling agency VTSIOM, every fourth Russian sees the United States as an enemy. Similarly, 25 percent see Georgia in the same way. Other states in Russia’s “axis of evil” include Ukraine and the Baltic nations.

"The way that the West tries to present Russia in the conflict in Southern Ossetia has one major goal: the talk is about changing the charter of the United Nations, where Russia is one of five countries who have the veto right," St. Petersburg lawyer Igor Kalinin told me in a street poll this week. "There’s no legal mechanism to deprive us of this right, therefore everything is being done to discredit Russia and to change the charter. Today, the world is balanced by that charter.

....

Sergei Shelin, a St. Petersburg-based political analyst, said the result of the crisis in South Ossetia would be “the irreversible secession of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia.”

Perhaps predictably, most of those Russians who have access to Western television channels and agency reports tend to disdain the foreign coverage as "anti-Russian propaganda."

Many Russians blame the United States much more than Georgia. As Mikhail Romadov, a theology student, said in a street poll, Russia and Georgia, as nations, are not enemies. "These two nations are friendly and Orthodox," he said. "Therefore, I think this conflict is in the interest of the world’s major powers, who are not interested in having Russia as a strong economic and political rival.”