Meanwhile, over in Georgia

"The Sun, which many say rises in the morning, took several hours to cross the sky today"

"However, groups representing cave-dwellers criticised the reports for lack of inclusivity"

I have a REALLY bad feeling about American troops in Georgia, as in flashforward to a nuke exchange... "No one ever thought it would happen this way after W looked into Putin's eyes..."

The US and Russia are not gonna exchange nukes over this. Period. That's crazy talk.

http://www.wereldoorlog1418.nl/warpictures/begin/images/01-sarajewo-dwo-011.jpg

Today's conspiracy theory: Apparently the US has been massing aircraft carriers in the Gulf, and there are many more there now than there "should" be. The US prodded Saakashvili into provoking a Russian invasion, which now makes it impossible for Russia to complain when the US unveils its *real* goal from this series of events, which is a US attack on Iran.

No, really - there are actually people here who this makes sense.

why would russian involvement in georgia have any effect on any reaction to us war with iran

http://leninology.blogspot.com/2008/08/washington-to-saakashvili-shut-up.html

Bush left enough threads dangling that one could infer a wide range of possible US actions - and from this administration, you certainly wouldn't rule out the most aggressive strategies. There is an element of the 'madman theory' in action here: let the world think we're about nuts enough to do anything, and they'll go along with our preferred strategy with some relief and gratitude. Saakashvili spoiled it by blustering that, uh huh, America was going to take over Georgia's airports and sea ports and run them from Washington. This provoked an immediate denial from his nervous American backers....

It seems as if there is an effort by some in the defense establishment to take the heat out of Bush's remarks. The US military leadership may not want anything that could even approach a confrontation with Russia - but the civilian leadership is quite ruthless and has a knack for outmanoeuvering its opponents in the state. Regionally, the US may also decide to up its game. The presence of US troops across the former Soviet states has thus far been quite limited: no need for them as long as there's a pro-Washington regime and no serious military threat. Although the 'lily-pads' are significant in terms of their potential uses, securing strategic routes for US troops should the need arise, the total number of US troops in the former Soviet countries as of 2005 was 132 (by contrast, there were over 35,000 troops stationed in Japan and almost 30,000 in South Korea). In light of intensified struggles in the Caucasus and Central Asia, that figure may rise substantially. And as I have said before, even if the current dilemmatic is temporarily resolved, it is bound to flare up again soon. The fact that this contest is rooted in something as central to global capitalism as the extraction and transport of energy means that it is permament and inclined to escalate - and that ought to give us a presentiment of real horror.

xpost

The idea is that with Russia out there conducting its rogue war, when the US invades Iran, Russia wouldn't be a credible voice to oppose the US attack. (As far as I followed it.)

If it does kick off in Iran, no-one is going to give two hoots what Russia might or might not be up to in Georgia

I don't know what to make of all this.

http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/08/13/did-karl-rove-chat-to-saakashvili-about-south-ossetia-too/

Did Karl Rove Chat to Saakashvili about South Ossetia Too?
By: emptywheel Wednesday August 13, 2008 12:41 pm
42
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The White House has started to panic over a July 9 meeting between Condi Rice and Mikheil Saakashvili, desperate to suggest they didn't encourage Georgia's crack-down in South Ossetia. Given that panic, I wonder whether Karl Rove had any similar chats with Saakashvili when they were in Yalta together just days later?

Now, there's been a lot of justified chatter about the role of Randy Scheunemann, who appears to be advising the Republic of Georgia at the same time as he provides campaign advice to John McCain.

Sen. John McCain's top foreign policy adviser prepped his boss for an April 17 phone call with the president of Georgia and then helped the presumptive Republican presidential nominee prepare a strong statement of support for the fledgling republic.

The day of the call, a lobbying firm partly owned by the adviser, Randy Scheunemann, signed a $200,000 contract to continue providing strategic advice to the Georgian government in Washington.

Given the way McCain has boasted of his frequent calls to Saakashvili in attempts to reclaim the mantle of the best international leader, it raises questions of whether the Administration's "see no evil" approach to Georgia was part of a deliberate campaign strategy.

Particularly when you consider the fact that Karl Rove may have met with Saakashvili just days after the July 9 private dinner between Condi and Saakashvili that the White House, State, and DOD are now panicking about. Rove was in the neighborhood, in Yalta, at a conference with Saakashvili three days after the meeting (h/t brendanx).

Anything to win an election, right? I don't know.

"Rove was at the Y.E.S. (Yalta European Strategy) conference. Along with Tony Blair, Mikulas Dzurinda, Aleksander Kwasniewski, William Taylor, and a couple hundred of their closest friends."

http://www.yes-ukraine.org/

Anyway, the $200,000 fee for lobbying on behalf of Georgia by Scheunemann is no conspiracy theory. But the guy has a great resume: http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/06/17/randy_scheunemann_mccain_advis.html

McCain's connections to Saakasvili are well known to those who are paying attention and I wouldn't put it past McCain (or rather, his advisers) to have a plan beforehand to exploit this to their mutual benefit.

Thx Mitya for responding to Ned's question.

More on this fiasco's perception in Russia. From a Czech paper:

http://www.tol.cz/look/TOL/article.tpl?IdLanguage=1&IdPublication=4&NrIssue=282&NrSection=2&NrArticle=19850

The highly emotional media coverage of the conflict has helped to inflame public opinion. Most of those polled by the Russian media hold the view that the conflict was a provocation on the side of the United States, the country that they believe "perceives Russia as its main competitor."

According to a recent poll conducted by the influential nationwide polling agency VTSIOM, every fourth Russian sees the United States as an enemy. Similarly, 25 percent see Georgia in the same way. Other states in Russia’s “axis of evil” include Ukraine and the Baltic nations.

"The way that the West tries to present Russia in the conflict in Southern Ossetia has one major goal: the talk is about changing the charter of the United Nations, where Russia is one of five countries who have the veto right," St. Petersburg lawyer Igor Kalinin told me in a street poll this week. "There’s no legal mechanism to deprive us of this right, therefore everything is being done to discredit Russia and to change the charter. Today, the world is balanced by that charter.

....

Sergei Shelin, a St. Petersburg-based political analyst, said the result of the crisis in South Ossetia would be “the irreversible secession of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia.”

Perhaps predictably, most of those Russians who have access to Western television channels and agency reports tend to disdain the foreign coverage as "anti-Russian propaganda."

Many Russians blame the United States much more than Georgia. As Mikhail Romadov, a theology student, said in a street poll, Russia and Georgia, as nations, are not enemies. "These two nations are friendly and Orthodox," he said. "Therefore, I think this conflict is in the interest of the world’s major powers, who are not interested in having Russia as a strong economic and political rival.”

>McCain's connections to Saakasvili are well known to those who are paying attention and I wouldn't put it past McCain (or rather, his advisers) to have a plan beforehand to exploit this to their mutual benefit.

A plan is one thing but I think Russia called McCain/Sakaashvili/Scheunemann's bluff.

I wouldn't put anything past Karl Rove

anti-American sentiment in Russia dies hard I see.

seriously most Americans don't give two shits about Russia anymore. Standard narrative is "we won the Cold War and now they love our jeans and rock n roll, those crazy drunken commies!"

>seriously most Americans don't give two shits about Russia anymore

Which is perhaps why desperate Republicans didn't think anything of engineering a crisis on the *one* issue (foreign policy) McCain has consistently polled ahead of Obama on (by up to 20 points). Yet just like with Iraq (Scheunemann miscalculated there as well, if you read the resume link) they underplayed the consequences

And now Putin has served check mate, and it is a crisis. I don't think Bush was anticipating the tanks moving towards Tblisi, at that volley ball game

Bush is probably drunk 24/7 these days, I doubt he's anticipating much of anything

Or maybe this was partially stage-managed by the Russians? Whatever the case, for this to start at the beginning of the Olympics is no coincidence

x-post Bush is probably drunk in anticipation that he'll get to go back to the ranch after all these years of being center-stage

These conspiracy theories ... it's like the US has become Israel all of a sudden

so russia is "moving around" in georgia. anyone think they're planning an occupation of the whole country? or are they just trying to pull the "irregulars" into line, to stop future flare-ups? (like they say)?

still kinda shook

It's getting colder out there: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080814/pl_nm/shield_poland_dc

U.S. and Poland sign missile shield deal

WARSAW (Reuters) - Poland finally agreed on Thursday to host elements of U.S. global anti-missile system on its territory after Washington improved the terms of the deal amid the Georgia crisis.

---

RUSSIA VEHEMENTLY OPPOSED

If everything goes to schedule, the interceptor base would be ready by around 2012, officials have said. The Czechs have already signed an agreement to host the radar although parliament there must ratify it.

Russia has vehemently opposed placing the shield installations in central Europe, saying they would threaten its security and upset the post-Cold War balance of power in Europe.

Washington reiterated on Thursday this was not the case.

"In no way is the (U.S.) president's plan for missile defense aimed at Russia," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said. "The purpose of missile defense is to protect our European allies from any rogue threats."

Moscow has threatened to take retaliatory steps against Poland and the Czech Republic, its former reluctant vassals who are now part of the European Union and NATO.

---

"rare success"

Russia has also been angered by Poland's strong verbal support for Georgia.

The shield deal, if approved by parliaments in Prague and Warsaw, will be a rare success for President George W. Bush who has argued it is essential to contain the threat of a potentially nuclear-armed Iran.

Washington hopes the shield might persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear program, although Teheran says it wants to develop nuclear energy only to generate electricity and not to make nuclear weapons.

Not sure how this snuck into the press, but one of my (reliable) friends reported reading in a story today that a Russian regular army soldier - a Chechen, in fact - said that his unit had been in South Ossetia for months (i.e. Russia had planned for this eventuality).

http://osinform.ru/foto/7787-vojjna-v-juzhnojj-osetii-89-fotografijj.html

Thanks. Some of those are none too pretty. Funny how you can know how that's what war's all about, but not really think of 'til you see the pictures

Kremlin announces that South Ossetia will join 'one united Russian state' says the Times. It's pretty brazen stuff now by Russia. The backstory seems to be shifting slightly day by day too, so that what initially seemed a crazy gamble by Saakashvili now looks more like a last-ditch attempt to pre-empt an imminent invasion that was going to happen anyway - exactly what Mitya said three posts above

saakashvili met this girl at the vancouver olympics and made her the georgian economy minister! she was in my grad class!

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/07/28/georgian-minister-rues-nightclub-photo/

╔══════════════ ೋღ☃ღೋ ══════════════╗
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Repost this if ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ you are a beautiful strong black woman ~ ~
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ who don’t need no man ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
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― jaxon, Wednesday, 5 October 2011 04:13 (18 hours ago)

Uh
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYHLHTUSwU0

^^ that is Ivanishvili's son rapping about (I think) Georgian Dream, his eccentric billionaire father's political movement.

Not sure what to make of Georgian Dream. Saakashvili is fairly widely discredited but Ivanishvili's alliance seems to be held together by little more than his personality / cash.

Yeah, shit is bananas over there. I heard something about a horrible prison rape scandal, but haven't read much about it.

opening chords sound like "Bye Bye Bye"

His lipgloss is something else. Apparently there is a Saakashvili supported rapper who Bera has beefed with publicly.

Kakha Kaladze appears to be Deputy Prime Minister now!

Wow. Apparently they're going with the "invite all the cool kids to the party" approach?

There appears to have been a coup / revolution, of sorts, in Abkhazia. Protesters have taken over government buildings, the President has fled and the government has resigned. It's not entirely clear what their objective is at the moment.

Twitter now being used for pass-agg diplomacy:

Carl Bildt
‏@carlbildt

If @PrimeMinisterGE does not want to listen to the best friends of his country in EU that’s his choice. We take note. @LinkeviciusL

Bildt - Swedish Foreign Minister
PrimeMinisterGE - PM of Georgia
Linkevicius - Lithuanian Foreign Minister

Context: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/08/07/saakashvili_doesnt_need_a_little_help_from_his_friends

წყლის ჭავლი pic.twitter.com/0BOZzjYtHc

— Rezo 🇬🇪 (@RezoBear) March 7, 2023

The first inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh have reached Armenia. Nearly the entirety of the population - 120,000 people - are expected to leave the territory as Azerbaijan takes control. https://t.co/ok1Wz2JLeb

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) September 24, 2023

The President of the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh), Samvel Shahramanyan, has signed a degree on its dissolution, effective immediately. The Republic is no more. https://t.co/pyIszJ8tBU

— Neil Hauer (@NeilPHauer) September 28, 2023

auto-correct doesn't know about decrees?

That's right. Knowing how to spell doesn't make you less of a shit.

grumpy much today, xyzzzz?

Spare us the posts where you feel you are "hated" by some on here, or you made to feel "less than human".

That's all I'll say.

Protests escalating again

HappeningNow: #Tbilisi’s main avenue is packed with tens of thousands of people protesting against the #RussianLaw.
People keep coming irrespective of tear gas and rubber bullets.#NoToOligarch #Ivanishvili pic.twitter.com/MPghQQKdQS

— Giorgi Oniani (@OnianiG) May 1, 2024

This is Tbilisi. Heart of Europe. 10:25 pic.twitter.com/vciUS2gyeq

— Nodar Rukhadze (@xonoda) May 2, 2024

A lot of conflicting reports on just how big these crowds are but certainly appear to be growing