OSCARS 2013

I root for films I like to lose at this point. A greater honor.

A strategy so fulfilling you've adapted it for everything else in life.

Nate Silver runs the numbers. LOL at the pitiful weighting in the directors' category:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/oscar-predictions-election-style/

"it’s going to be blind luck if we get this one right: you can’t claim to have a data-driven prediction when you don’t have any data."

Of course, Silver admits his method just doesn't work in this field. Case in point:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2013/02/22/movies/22fivethirtyeight-oscar-charts/22fivethirtyeight-oscar-charts-custom6.png

my only stake in this is hoping waltz doesnt win. that should be sam jackson's nomination

The other four should be Matthew McConaughey's.

Bruce Willis as Capt Sharp, imho

it's SUCH a relief to dislike something more than you.

you could make a long list and you know it

(as could Zero Dark Grumpyclimber)

have no problem with the Willis performance, ESPECIALLY in this group.

jaymc, has an acting category ever before consisted entirely of past winners?

pretty sure this is the first time -- in a supporting category at least

Yeah, first time in any category AFAIK.

Filled out the office Oscar pool earlier today. Interestingly, my picks are identical to Nathaniel's (with the exception of the shorts, which we don't do):
http://thefilmexperience.net/blog/2013/2/22/final-oscar-predictions.html

no Bond film has ever won Best Song, THAT's weird.

More than most years I'm appalled by the predictions. As in, I can't fathom De Niro and Argo as frontrunners

I still think TLJ will win. But De Niro does have two things going for him: 1) He's taken an unusually active role in Harvey's campaign for him, and 2) In a category of former Oscar winners, he's gone the longest time without one.

if it closes the deal, argo might be my least favorite best pic winner for, as i kinda said before, using actual deep issues as window dressing on the story of how hollywood saved half a dozen gov't bureaucrats from an inconvenient incarceration. i don't necessarily think it's bad, it's just a movie that really blows it after what i thought was a pretty compelling opening stretch.

2) In a category of former Oscar winners, he's gone the longest time without one.

he's been phoning it in for the last 25 years or so

feel like there are a dozen or so entirely defensible-to-excellent de niro performances in that timespan.

yeah definitely. he delivers basically a perfect performance in jackie brown, and a bunch of other movies

with jackie brown, ronin, the score etc. the filmmakers knew what they had to work with and gave him an appropriate role, and it turned out ok. it's not because of him putting in much effort.

Deniro was fine in the 90s... 00s are a different story

midnight run
jacknife
goodfellas
cape fear
mad dog and glory
this boy's life
a bronx tale
casino
heat
wag the dog
jackie brown
ronin

now if you're arguing the past 15 yrs i don't much beef w/that stance, though i think he's been good in a few things over that timespan too.

i think he's def been taking it easy and also making poor choices; his stabs at gritty pics or thrillers have been mostly failed attempts (city by the sea, 15 minutes, righteous kill)

sorry but that nineties list is Jean Renoir worthy compared to a decade level

*level = later

jeez that supernatural thriller w/ B Cooper and him was pitiful

The thing that pisses me off the most about Argo is that I don't hate it and it would be a significantly better winner than the previous two piles of shit.

“Supporting Actor this year is interesting,” opines one studio chief. “Harvey practically got De Niro to wash cars on Santa Monica Boulevard.” Adds the first consultant, “De Niro hasn’t done much glad-handing and personal appearances in his career. But this guy, for a supporting role, is everywhere — including that Hollywood International Film Festival. On Goodfellas, he was nowhere to be seen. I remember studio publicists were driven to drink over his nonchalance.”

Notes the head of marketing at another studio without skin in the Best Actor race, “Daniel Day-Lewis is going to win no matter what, but he also campaigned more than he ever has before. He was out here a lot — I’ve never seen him doing it before — probably because it’s such a tough field of competitors, you know?”

Humility — even false humility, given the outsize egos of so many male Academy members — is essential. Says our first consultant, "I was working with an Oscar-nominated actress recently, and she told me she went to the Sorbonne ... I was like, 'Wow! That's a great nugget — we should use that in interviews and press materials,' and she was immediately like, 'Whatever you do, do not tell people I went to the Sorbonne!' And she was right: This is a town that doesn’t appreciate or reward smart women … It probably hurt Sharon Stone’s career immeasurably when she claimed she was in MENSA."

u_u

just been to see No. V. pretty, well told, witty. not exactly deep but a more enjoyable 2 hours than most of the BP noms i'd imagine

Don't watch much TV and have not been following this race, but has DDL been out and about? He seems the guy most likely to show up with a giant beard down to his knees, if he shows up at all.

Oh, wait, a few xposts above I guess it says he has been visible. Is he all shaggy?

Was listening to Fresh Air interview Ben Affleck, then turned down the radio when I picked up my Shamrock Shake at the drive-thru. Then I turned it up again a minute later and listened til the end. Was not until the last minute that I realized the interview had switched subjects from Affleck to Bradley Cooper. I could not tell the difference, from voice down to demeanor.

ftr the Sorbonne is not a prestigious school in France

School of Sorbonne like the School of Hard Knocks?

Would Sorbonne.

This is sort of fun if you try to name them before they come up on the screen (you've got a second between films--I got most of them from the late '50s through to 1981):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXzRE1F1VLE

FB friend just said she was 'excited' for the Oscars and described Seth McFarlane as 'hotttt'

I can't even

i'm not at home has fashion coverage begun yet?

no it doesn't start til like 5:30pst

oh fashion starts at 4 iirc

who knows though E! probably started on Thursday lol

lol camping bags sprawled out on the carpet 2 weeks ago

totally

anyone know where I can watch this online?

red carpet stream here http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xxmms7_2013-the-oscars-red-carpet-live-stream_shortfilms#from=embediframe

no joy with a possible stream for the actual show so far

bingo http://hollywoodlife.com/2013/02/24/oscars-live-stream-watch-2013-academy-awards-online/