2015 American Politics Thread: The 114th Congress Is in the House!

this whole thing reminds me of those people that insist on owning dangerous wild animals as pets cuz they think it makes them cool and badass and in touch with real wild animals and then one day they get eaten by their dangerous wild animal pets

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/652211197840916483

BREAKING: BOEHNER IS PERSONALLY ASKING RYAN TO STEP UP AND BE SPEAKER, have spoken twice today by phone...

haha

We cut to this live shot of Boehner in this office:

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/dMbcOC5dS5k/hqdefault.jpg

https://youareagrownman.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/the-godfather-family-album04.jpg

https://theconservativetreehouse.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/lord_flies.jpg

:D

https://twitter.com/laurennfrench/status/652177633770348545

Pelosi on speaker race: "I’m sure they’ll find somebody who is capable of accepting the honor."

love ya Nan, never change

WELL THEN

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2573731

"Maybe this is a time for Newt Gingrich to come back with a flurry of ideas and a new contract that would advance a conservative agenda to help the country solve these horrible problems," Hannity told Gingrich.

YESSSSS

space stations a-go-go!

Gingrich used "practical" and "House Republican Caucus" in the same sentence.

on the other hand, he knows how to count

the House GOP Caucus meanwhile can't read or write

"If you were to say to me 218 have called you up and given you their pledge, obviously no citizen could ever turn down that kind of challenge. This is why George Washington came out of retirement — because there are moments you can't avoid."

Keep aiming for the stars, Newt.

this is the most fun politics has been in a while imo

I wonder what it would take for the GOP to really, literally splinter - if a majority of the GOP caucus just said "fuck you guys, we're voting with whatever Democrats we can get" and just ignored the Freedom Caucus's demands outright. I mean it's not gonna happen but I just wonder how bad things would have to get for party unity to be completely destroyed.

because at this point GOP party unity is achieving literally nothing

CA Rep Mark Takano steps up to help out

loool

lol

I wonder what it would take for the GOP to really, literally splinter - if a majority of the GOP caucus just said "fuck you guys, we're voting with whatever Democrats we can get" and just ignored the Freedom Caucus's demands outright. I mean it's not gonna happen but I just wonder how bad things would have to get for party unity to be completely destroyed.

My guess is that the freedom caucus tea party types are literal death cultists, and having tasted blood won't vote for any leader other than one of their own. Is anyone allowed on the floor ballot other than the two party nominees?

https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/652206597876256769

lol

uh, doesn't the speaker have to be a sitting congressperson?!?!? what's with the romney and gingrich stuff?

speaker only has to be over 25, like w/ car rentals

2015 American Politics Thread: The 114th Congress Is in the House!

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/10/will-democrats-elect-the-next-gop-speaker.html?mid=facebook_nymag

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/rock-bottom-things-could-get-worse-for-house-gop/article/2573742

I don't see why Democrats would help elect a Republican - once in office he'd still kowtow to his caucus and it's not like Republicans wouldn't back him if the Democrats tried to unseat him.

well whaddya know

The Constitution does not require that the Speaker be an elected House Representative, though all Speakers have been an elected Member of Congress.

yeah allen west picked up some protest votes last time around and he'd already lost his seat

similarly there are rumours of a draft eric cantor movement afoot which would be so fucking hilarious

would imagine any deal between moderate republicans (which is who again exactly?_ and dems would carry with it certain concessions on what would be brought to the floor for a vote (ie no hastert rule), debt limit, etc. even then think any republicans that went w/ it would be guaranteeing they'd be primaried next year, which in theory might be benefit enough for dems - either those republicans get picked off by some tea party maniac that can't win in the general (presuming tea party challengers have picked off any moderate/establishment gop congressmen they stood a chance at beating by now)(which may be a presumption too far - cantor just lost last year) or the moderate wins and their support is depressed. i'm not sure how i'd feel about a ryan speakership (other than him declining it so far as well as opting out of running for president might mean he really is the brains of the gop), it could obv destroy him (someone somewhere was comparing it to the king's hand in game of thrones and saying ryan's not stupid, he saw what happened to ned stark) but there is the possibility that he unites the party enough and manages to pass and sell a conservative agenda more effectively than any recent gop speaker. idk. do think even if he does stay out it would be funny if dems voted for him anyway and see if they can spook some republicans into voting for him. it's not like you have to have the permission of the person you're voting for speaker to vote for them, i'm pretty sure john lewis didn't give john barrow permission to vote for him so the gop couldn't use 'he voted for pelosi!' against him.

it would be funny if dems voted for him anyway

i have a hunch the outcome of this will be boring and disappointing but i'm praying for lols of this level

didn't vox run an explainer on the history of speakership voting after it came up in house of cards lol

I'm already tired of the Republican and mainstream media Paul Ryan lovefest. Maybe he will turn down the chance to run for speaker too.

the Washington press will act like it's 2011 again. It can't wait.

he's already showing off his replacement gavel
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/811195/thumbs/s-PAUL-RYAN-WORKOUT-large640.jpg?6

you know, 'rock bottom' even for vile entities is not always helpful in the grand scheme

would imagine any deal between moderate republicans (which is who again exactly?_ and dems would carry with it certain concessions on what would be brought to the floor for a vote (ie no hastert rule), debt limit, etc. even then think any republicans that went w/ it would be guaranteeing they'd be primaried next year, which in theory might be benefit enough for dems

otm. Pelosi is smart and ruthless enough to extract serious concessions, and depending on the districts Republicans would be at risk of being primaried as RINOs - neither of those are things the "establishment" GOP would be willing to risk.

Anyone have a link to what the whip count is if the Freedom Caucus decides not to vote for the GOP nominee on the floor? Would Dem nominee win with a plurality?

Dem nominee couldn't win without GOP votes and come on the GOP is not going to hand over control of the House to the minority

oh wait I see what you're saying - is the Dem caucus larger than the GOP caucus less the Freedom Caucus and could they elect their own speaker that way

Right

Dems have 188, who I'm sure would go for Pelosi
GOP has 247 though, so even less 40 Freedom Caucus members, they still outnumber the Dems by a substantial margin.

218 is required for the majority. so like I said upthread, Dem nominee would need GOP votes, which is just not gonna happen. Now, the GOP nominee *could* win if they jettison the Freedom Caucus in favor of Dem votes, but (as also discussed upthread) this is political suicide on a scale the GOP just won't consider imo.

I mean, if the Freedom Caucus really were crazy/stupid enough to prefer going down in flames voting for a "true conservative" type candidate, and enough non-caucus members wanted to grab some of the glory, I guess that could happen? But as unlikely as that is, it's even more unlikely they would let that status quo last for long - I mean they are crazy but once Pelosi was actually in charge of what gets to the floor, how many blocked Republican bills would it take before they either came to their senses or found their constituents back home going "wtf are you doing"?

More likely - which is to say, still extremely unlikely - would be the establishment GOP and Dems agreeing on some kind of "compromise" Republican candidate, who would have to be a really fucking convincing moderate for the Dems to be remotely interested. I mean in the end, once the Speaker is in office, there is very little the minority voters could do to control them and nothing would keep them from basically behaving like Boehner until the Freedom Caucus gets wise and the process starts over again. It would make more sense for the Dems to stonewall the whole business and say "you can't unite your own party around a speaker when you have a huge gerrymandered majority in Congress, let's let America watch this play out for a while."

If that were to happen, the GOP would just whine that Dems are obstructing the course of the government.

lol I can't see that flying except in the heart of the right-wing echo chamber. I mean the US was pretty clearly able to suss out who was obstructing what when it came to things as dramatic as the Gingrich/Clinton budget shutdown. I think "the Republicans have a majority but can't manage to agree on a speaker so nothing is getting done in Congress" is bite-sized enough to carry the day.

Important to keep in mind: GOP voters don't want their congressmen to govern – they want congressmen to obstruct.

^^^

probably won't be satisfied until they burn down the capitol building tbh