2015 American Politics Thread: The 114th Congress Is in the House!

We've reached the point when Paul Ryan is Adlai Stevenson.

well he is one of the younger generation's foremost intellects it's true

not u.s. politics but oddly familiar...

National Front Gets a Boost in French Regional Elections

Although President François Hollande has earned widespread approval for his handling of the terrorist attacks here, and Nicolas Sarkozy, his predecessor, is still pursuing a comeback plan to propel him and his center-right party back into power, the most significant political figure in France — some would argue the most powerful — is Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far right.

Ms. Le Pen led her far-right National Front to a first-place finish in the initial round of regional elections on Sunday, a huge step forward in her plan to transform a fringe movement into a credible party of government.

The result left both Mr. Hollande’s Socialists and Mr. Sarkozy’s Republicans groping on Monday for ways to thwart Ms. Le Pen’s ascendance and increasingly worried that she is emerging as the candidate to beat in the presidential elections in 18 months. It also highlighted the appeal of baldly nationalist messages on both sides of the Atlantic at a time when traditional parties are struggling to address the insecurities of voters facing economic dislocation and a sense of vulnerability to terrorism.

one difference is that the Front Nationale nowadays is committed to keeping the welfare state. their one big issue is immigration. not to say that doesn't make them fascist (I am an immigrant here after all) but "at least" you don't get the warmongering like you with today's GOP

oh and eliminating the American welfare state such as it is

i've also heard (not looked into it too deeply myself) that this Le Pen is trying to push an anti-abortion message, which has always been a seriously marginal concern in france.

she's a nominal Catholic (divorced iirc) but the contraception/abortion stuff is a marginal issue if at all

I fear the effect of an Islamist attack on a church here though (the authorities stopped one such plot in Villejuif already). the Catholic block (not just inside my head) is leftist here but it could be destabilized. reckon it's the same in the USA

I guess I didn't think much about the fact that B-52s are still the main US bombers... 'cept they haven't built any since 1962! And don't plan to repolace them until 2040! Some of the technical slapstick in this article is jawdropping.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/us/b-52s-us-air-force-bombers.html

B1 & B2 successor bomber ideas both failed...Wow.

Meanwhile on Capitol hill there may be need for a temporary budget extension, because despite some deals ---

Republicans are confident they'll be able to lift a ban on exporting crude oil, though the GOP is wary of acceding to Democratic demands on environmental policy in return for allowing such sales. Democrats are relieved Republicans aren't fighting to strip funds from Planned Parenthood.

One major open question is how Congress will handle the Syrian refugee crisis, and whether the issue gets caught up in the year-end spending fight. The House will vote Tuesday to tighten restrictions on visa-free travel by visitors to the U.S. GOP leaders privately hope that the vote will take pressure off them to include additional certifications for Syrian and Iraqi refugees to the U.S. in the must-pass spending bill. President Barack Obama and Democrat have strongly opposed inclusion of any refugee language in the omnibus bill.

Yet there are still big disputes between the two parties over environmental policy provisions, including global warming and clean water programs. The disagreements have Democrats vowing to oppose the omnibus package in its current form. Furthermore, Republicans are planning to go it alone on a massive, two-year package of popular tax breaks, known as extenders, after talks all but broke down with Democrats.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/budget-congress-deadline-overtime-216507#ixzz3tlQOzSwG

The non-Politico take:

"Right now it is a nonstarter because of the riders that are in it," House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said after leaving a closed-door meeting of her caucus in the Capitol. "But we're hopeful, we're hopeful that we can find a path on it."

....

Lowey suggested a deal on the omnibus — which aides have been negotiating around the clock — was nearly at hand, until Ryan sought to link it to another measure that would renew a slate of expired tax breaks.

"In Appropriations, we were ready to move ahead. In fact, the expectation was that we were going to vote for it on Wednesday," Lowey said of the omnibus. "And then they decided to mix up the tax extenders with the omnibus, and we'll see where the Speaker wants to go.

"Why is it in his hands?” she asked. "Because he runs this place. The Democrats don't run it. And until the Speaker and Sen. [Mitch] McConnell [R-Ky.] are ready to put this together, we cannot move forward."

http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/262433-pelosi-gop-see-spending-talks-stall-as-deadline-looms

xp the Russians still use a bomber of a similar vintage, with a similar retirement date:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-95

notably the Russian bomber isn't even a jet aircraft -- it's a turboprop o_O

Pelosi has stepped up her efforts in recent days on both the spending bill and legislation addressing a slew of lapsed and expiring tax breaks known as ‘extenders.’ On the spending bill, she has sought to block all GOP policy measures, or ‘riders,’ that Democrats don’t like.”

Will see if she "compromises" though...

she never compromises unless she gets something in return

and now we all know the definition of the word "compromise"

yr welcome

the DC definition is the Democrats surrendering 10x consecutively

in other news Congress actually ... did a good thing?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/senate-overwhelmingly-passes-new-national-education-legislation/2015/12/09/be1b1f94-9d2a-11e5-a3c5-c77f2cc5a43c_story.html

Depends on what state you live in...

From that article--

Others are concerned that the legislation returns the country to a time when some states and districts ignored the needs of struggling students.

“The reason we evolved to a more centralized system is because local school districts failed to act effectively on their own,” said Thomas Toch, an education policy expert at Georgetown University’s McCourt School of Public Policy. “Many students were left behind in the era of local control, and now we’re going back to that era. It puts school districts in charge of fixing failing schools, the same school districts that are running the failing schools now.”

No Child Left Behind is clearly a total failure so idk. Is it wrong to suggest that it's kinda up to the local district residents to improve their districts? that's how public schools work.

when people complain to me about public schools my response is usually "what are you doing to make them better"

(fwiw both my parents were public school employees, my wife is on the PTA of our kids' school, this sort of thing is bred into me)

pretty much agree w/ that

That's amazing news. I ultimately pulled the plug on several years of schooling as an education major because I wanted to work in public schools but was also all-too-aware that dealing with the injustices of NCLB on a daily basis was going to drive me insane.

the DC definition is the Democrats surrendering 10x consecutively

One of those senators should filibuster or threaten to shut the government down.

I think No Child Left Behind had some decent goals and went about them in the completely wrong way and is an unmitigated disaster

This is partial mitigation, but it's mostly a rollback. All the teacher friends of mine are going to be able to concentrate more on what they should be doing instead of rolling through waves of counterproductive testing, but the states that have never cared about public schools can continue underfunding and hedging with the charter school pyramid scheme bullshit

yup

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CV4FZUPWcAIrQuK.png

oic

hire foreigners to fight isis with the promise of future citizenship and we can complete the transition to the roman empire right now

we already hire foreigners to fight ISIS and we didn't even need to promise them citizenship

^^^

otm

Current standoff on tax issues where Republicans say that indexing the child tax credit so it increases in value with inflation is too expensive, but they want to maintain various corporate ones, and will only agree to phase them out if Dems drop the indexing request:

The tax package would phase out over five years a bonus depreciation tax break for corporations, which was intended as a short-term stimulus measure, and two provisions that benefit foreign corporations and American multinational corporations. Republicans wanted to make the corporate breaks permanent, but Democrats and the administration objected, especially given the recent controversy involving Pfizer and other corporations that have acquired foreign companies to relocate in countries with lower corporate taxes.

A tentative trade-off would have Republicans agreeing to the five-year phaseout of the corporate tax breaks they favor in return for Democrats dropping their insistence on indexing the child tax credit so it increases in value with inflation. But House Democrats, led by Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, have been insisting on indexing the child credit.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/us/politics/lawmakers-near-deal-on-billions-in-tax-cuts.html

the pro-child, pro-family party

@ggreenwald
Democratic Governor dismisses due process concerns about watchlists as "before attacks in Paris, and...California"

Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy believes his plan to use an executive order to prevent people on federal terror watchlists from buying guns could spread to other states with the help of a supportive White House, he said in an interview with BuzzFeed News.
And the Connecticut governor defended the use of the no-fly list and terror watchlist as a standard, as many Democrats, including President Obama, have in recent weeks — something that has disrupted frequent liberal skepticism toward those lists over the years.
“This has got to be subject to appeal or review, but I prefer that review take place before we sell a gun to someone on the list as opposed to after. It’s kind of common sense isn’t it?” Malloy told said in an interview Thursday afternoon.
Earlier in the day, the governor publicly announced his plan to add federal watchlists to the existing criteria state regulators use to deny a request for a gun permit, which is required for firearm purchase in Connecticut. The proposal, which he said is still in the formative stages and requires a federal sign-off, once again puts Malloy at the center of the gun control debate, though in a different way than when he helped guide some of the nation’s strictest gun regulations through the state legislature after Newtown.
That effort pit Malloy against the National Rifle Association. This time, he’s facing opposition from the NRA and other gun rights supporters from the right — but also on concerns about the watchlists themselves, concerns initially voiced during the Bush administration by liberals and libertarians alike....
“I’m a liberal, and I’m saying this,” Malloy said when pressed on left-leaning concerns about the lists. “So what you mean to say is, ‘some liberals say that.’”

http://www.buzzfeed.com/evanmcsan/connecticut-governor-rejects-liberal-concerns-over-using-ter#.ceWEDPq17j

[n a case that could help demystify how the FBI deems somebody a terrorist threat, the American Civil Liberties Union argued in federal court Wednesday that the government has failed to comply with an earlier court order to tell people how they wound up on the "no-fly" list.

The case revolves around several Muslim Americans who say they were included on the list unfairly and denied a constitutional right to find out why. The government argues that explaining the process in open court would endanger national security

Bowen argued that the government had no obligation to tell people why they were placed on the list.

"Government is not required in name of due process to put its national security at risk," he said. "The plaintiffs' interest must necessarily give way."....The FBI's Terrorist Screening Center, which operates the list, won't reveal the evidence against those on the list, allow them to question witnesses or challenge the findings in court.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-ff-1210-no-fly-list-20151210-story.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2015/12/10/denying-guns-to-terror-suspects-could-violate-fundamental-rights-a-top-democrat-pushes-back/

Here's another one of the "compromises" they are trying to work out on Capital Hill, where Dems always give more than they get

http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2015/12/tell-congress-today-keep-crude-oil.html

Sen. Barbara Boxer (Calif.), top Democrat on the Environment and Public Works Committee, shrugged off environmentalist fears about trading conservation and renewables' benefits for oil exports. There is "division" among green groups over whether to cut a deal, she said in a brief interview. "I've heard environmentalists say this is a great opportunity; others say it's not," she said.

Any deal would also likely include some type of aid for refineries in the Northeast that have benefited from cheap domestic crude that cannot be exported currently. Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) said he said he is in discussions for an approach "to make whole American refineries that in many cases would simply go out of business" should exports be permitted.

House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told reporters that oil exports were not objectionable enough to sink a possible deal on their own.

Ending the 1970s-era ban on exports, the year's top priority for the American Petroleum Institute, is "not where we want to go," Hoyer said. "But on the other hand, if there were substantial agreements by the Republicans on some things that we thought were very important, that might be something" to consider during the budget talks.
Among the perps are some of the solar companies, who would get a small benefit for themselves from a Democratic "compromise."

Paul Ryan, Secret Muslim: http://theslot.jezebel.com/wow-paul-ryan-really-should-have-known-better-1747571663

why would anyone want to work in politics

the sweet digs

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2015/12/house-republicans-bill-to-ruin-john-boehners-retirement?mbid=social_facebook

nelson_laugh.wav

still wondering how this will turn out...negotiations ongoing

Making the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit permanent has been a priority for Democrats in negotiations. While the Child Tax Credit is in the extenders package, Pelosi wants it to be indexed, meaning its benefits will rise with inflation -- something Republicans haven’t been responsive on.

Another sticking point is the sheer size of the tax extenders package, which could cost upwards of $700 billion over the next decade. Republicans are also pushing hard to include a measure that would lift a 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports to the tax deal.

“Lifting the ban on oil and all the money that that means for the oil industry, while they can’t index for children, it’s just, it’s too big,” Pelosi said. “It’s unfair, and it does not have the support of House Democrats.”

While the White House doesn't want Congress touching crude oil exports, it is involved in negotiations to ensure anti-environmental riders are stripped and that other priorities for Democrats are met in exchange. The administration hasn't threatened a veto of the extenders bill if oil exports are attached. Republicans in the House have enough votes to attach it to the extenders bill even without Democratic support. The president would likely sign the bill despite House Democrats' opposition.

“I made it clear, don’t count on our votes for that,” Pelosi said. “We will not be accomplices.”

Still, Pelosi indicated she wouldn't stand in the way of the tax deal as long as Republicans bring it to the floor separately from the omnibus bill, adding she didn't want to have anything to do with the tax bill.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nancy-pelosi-tax-extenders_566b0239e4b0f290e522eecd

god this bowe bergdahl thing.

Some army general apparently ignored the advice given him by a committee of inquiry to confine the charges against bergdahl to misdemeanors. Hard to see how this reflects well on his judgment.

Koch brothers ...


The political operation created by the billionaire conservative mega-donors Charles and David Koch is quietly investing millions of dollars in programs to win over an unlikely demographic target for their brand of small-government conservatism ― poor people.

The outreach includes everything from turkey giveaways, GED training and English-language instruction for Hispanic immigrants to community holiday meals and healthy living classes for predominantly African American groups to vocational training and couponing classes for the under-employed. The strategy, according to sources familiar with it and documents reviewed by POLITICO, calls for presenting a more compassionate side of the brothers’ politics to new audiences, while fighting the perception that their groups are merely fronts for rich Republicans seeking to game the political process for personal gain.

The efforts include a healthy dose of proselytizing about free enterprise and how it can do more than government to lift people out of poverty.

“We want people to know that they can earn their own success. They don’t need the government to give it to them,” Koch network official Jennifer Stefano told activists and donors during an August rally in Columbus, Ohio, at which she introduced one such project, Bridge to Wellbeing

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/charles-david-koch-poverty-charity-216631#ixzz3uOt7lrEa

there was a little TPM thing about that politico article, yesterday:

The reporter also got one of the Kochs' top lieutenants to concede that one additional benefit of the plan is to help secure Koch Inc's tax status with the IRS as a nominally educational and charitable organization ...

“Sometimes, we have not been as good at explaining the virtues of economic freedom and individual liberty to people who are struggling,” said Americans for Prosperity’s president Tim Phillips. He also conceded that AFP Foundation’s Bridge to Wellbeing initiative helps satisfy an Internal Revenue Service requirement that the group focus its spending on educational or charitable purposes, not political or policy advocacy. “Part of it is we are a social welfare organization. And, so, yes, we do try to help folks live more prosperous lives. That’s not related to direct policy.”

May they succeed at feeding poor people, and fail at converting them into conservatives.

Here's a political bombshell. Shrewd move too.

That's some modern day Nixon Goes to China plotting.

Also don't ever change, Fla: Florida senators defend maps as ‘free of political taint’

the Cuban Immigrant Work Opportunity Act of 2015

My congressman too!