I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

the subheadings from that spiegel article:

Trump Wants A Ruthless America
Desire for a Strong Man at the Top
No Longer the Laughing Stock
Fascist Characteristics
Inflaming Tensions
'It's a Miracle Trump Didn't Invent the Selfie'
The Dark Side of Trump's Narcissism
A Core Element of Racism
Goading and Ridicule
What To Expect from a President Trump
An Odd Worldview
Is There any Stopping Trump?
Is the Tide Turning in Trump's Favor?
Tackling Clinton
A Threat to World Peace

maybe CO? lots of college stoner types, but a lot of libertarian streaks in the state.

― global tetrahedron, Tuesday, February 2, 2016 10:34 AM (3 hours ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

Also a ton of Latinos, a group Clinton leads by something like 20-30 points depending on the poll. Based on this, I'd actually be pretty surprised for Sanders to win Colorado. 20% of the total population is Hispanic, and I'd guess that percentage is higher for Democratic primary voters.

clinton is not going to continue to hold anything near that sort of led in those demographics, although the head start she's got is going to be difficult to overcome

Sanders' deficit with minority voters is gonna hurt him a lot in crucial states where these are a significant chunk of Dem primary voters - SC, NV, CO, etc. So even if he splits the white vote 50/50 with Hillary, he loses.

@k3vin k I think the race will tighten a little, but I honestly don't see Sanders taking large chunks of Hillary's support among African-Americans and Latinos. I don't think his campaign and his messaging are built for that.

Also, re: my original post, there are obviously college stoners of all races, I didn't mean to imply otherwise. I just wanted to make the point that Colorado isn't all white ski bums and hippies who work in Boulder hemp shops.

Restorative justice and emancipation for marginalized groups can and should accompany redistributive and universalist economic agendas. If Bernie can't manage to incorporate specific civil rights issues into his platform then he's more of an ideologue than I would've guessed.

xp

For example, this poll from a couple of weeks ago shows that African Americans and Latinos are the one area where Clinton has actually been gaining strength. Now there's a lot to argue about within that poll, first and foremost the stuffing of multiple groups together under the banner African-American/Latino.

I guess my point is, if Bernie Sanders was going to make important inroads with these crucial groups in the Dem coalition, he would have already made important inroads with them. I don't see any evidence of it, and I see evidence to the contrary (the poll above, Clinton's SC polling)

xp: Sanders definitely has them as part of his platform but in the times I've seen him speak and certainly in the soundbites that are his campaign ads, he's done a terrible job of connecting them (see his total bungling of the reparations issue, which he didn't even need to come out in favor of in order to handle it better than he actually handled it).

I honestly don't think Bernie's lack of traction with minority voters is particularly issue-driven - its more a question of exposure, ground-game, media buys, outreach efforts, that kind of thing. Like, is he blanketing univision with ads and endorsements, does he have contacts with spanish-language media in the necessary markets? Clinton's got years of goodwill and exposure, Bernie's gotta make up a huge shortfall in a v short amount of time, it just isn't going to happen, no matter how many times he shows up on The Nightly Show with Killer Mike.

if Bernie Sanders was going to make important inroads with these crucial groups in the Dem coalition, he would have already made important inroads with them.

otm. he isn't gonna do this in 30 days.

i don't think a lot of people know bernie that well. not just minority voters.

i mean they know what he looks like and that he wants a revolution or whatever.

"is he the angry old white guy?"

i mean it was a long time ago but hillary was the first lady of the united states! for real.

kinda hard to believe now.

I am very interested in seeing what happens in Nevada and South Carolina as I think that's going to be an indicator of the actual level of Sanders' minority support

are you trying to tell me everyone on /r/berniesanders is white??????

did we poll hillary + bernie yet?

DJP otm

I voted "sitting in a tree" iirc

wasn't obama subject to similar misgivings about his ability to persuade non-white voters, before a certain point?

i guess krugman says it was iowa itself that convinced black voters as a group to get behind him

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/02/02/post-iowa-notes/?smid=fb-share

xp: Sanders definitely has them as part of his platform but in the times I've seen him speak and certainly in the soundbites that are his campaign ads, he's done a terrible job of connecting them (see his total bungling of the reparations issue, which he didn't even need to come out in favor of in order to handle it better than he actually handled it).

― its subtle brume (DJP), Tuesday, February 2, 2016 4:44 PM (17 minutes ago)

i was disappointed by bernie's reparations answer too but it was...candid? at the very least?

it would seem to me that, politically, after iowa/NH would be a good time to start emphasizing that part of his platform, as he starts to campaign in more diverse states

maybe - and that was because he carried the WHITE there. It was clear he wasn't Jesse Jackson (or Shirley Chisholm) 2.0.

xp

the WHITE vote duh

idk, maybe krugman's otm there, but i'd like to see some evidence to back that up. It sounds more like media CW to me than anything.

wow, krugman is really all in for hillary. kind of sad

Certainly taking a harder line on the corruption of our politics by big money is important — and no, giving some paid speeches doesn’t disqualify her from making that case. (Cue furious attack from the Bernie bros.)

He was in 2008 too!
xpost

Sanders should do some media buys featuring Hil & Bill pushing the crime bill... and maybe some clips from this speech:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/15/politics/bill-clinton-1994-crime-bill/

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--PEn-Kvwc--/c_scale,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/mmgrifg8rgxnnswy8wnk.jpg

Sanders should do some media buys featuring Hil & Bill pushing the crime bill

super-predators line is the obvious go to

sanders certainly has a lot at his disposal if he should choose to go down that road, and obviously i think bringing up bill's history is fair game. the demographics of iowa/NH meant he probably didn't need bring out the big guns yet, but at some point he's going to need to if he's going to try to give this a serious shot

he should go after Biil's big gun.

Sanders doesn't seem to have much appetite for the "politics of personal destruction", as they say. He gives every indication of having drank his own kool-aid as far as the broad appeal of his own policy proposals is concerned. But policy proposals alone are not what turns out votes.

if by "big gun" he means reminding voters about the Telecommunications Act, Commodity Futures Modernization Act, elimination of Glass-Steagall, welfare 'reform,' and Marc Rich, sure.

it does seem like all people remember about the 90s were that there were jobs and money flying around, but if you look at any of Bill Clinton's singular accomplishments the majority of 'em are pretty execrable. He could give a decent speech though.

also Alfred omitted Clinton's loosening of FDA regulations allowing drug companies to advertise, which you can definitely trace our current pill-addiction epidemic to, imho.

I am very interested in seeing what happens in Nevada and South Carolina as I think that's going to be an indicator of the actual level of Sanders' minority support

haven't looked at polls but I think Hillary will KO Bernie in South Carolina

i don't think a lot of people know bernie that well. not just minority voters.

― scott seward, Tuesday, February 2, 2016 4:48 PM Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yeah, this is interesting. i mean elsewhere i think we're all pretty much agreed that the hypothetical matchups showing clinton or sanders doing better or worse versus trump or cruz in the general election are basically meaningless, because most of the people answering haven't got strong opinions on most of the people being named, and would probably tell you so. so when we swing around to the dem primaries and specific groups sanders needs to do better with, i'm kinda willing to buy that he has some room and time to grow as he takes on individual states and throws down big ad buys and barnstorming and all that kind of stuff. not "win south carolina" room to grow - i mean come on.

nonetheless it is possible he could gain some. maybe some parts of his message connect while others fall flat, or this varies across the demographics he's trying to get on board. it would be nice to see some more detailed and precise polling of south carolina, which i suspect we shortly will. when the campaign first got rolling, sanders was polling at like 2%, 5% in south carolina. in august, the first or second time i started arguing with frederik b about this, sanders was up to 9%. he's now at 32.5%. that's still a horrible, crushing defeat vs. hillary - but it means he's bringing somebody on board. may in fact just be white south carolinian college students - i don't know. but he's been very steadily inching up there. be interesting to see how it looks once post-iowa polls start showing up.

lol I just looked at the polling. me otm

yeah welfare reform, NAFTA, DOMA/dont ask don't tell, the 94 crime bill, etc. plenty of great stuff there that could be targeted to different demographics xxxp

we're looking beyond SC, Chachi.

‏@DougHenwood
The Hillary-Bernie Olive Garden meme is just like real sexual harassment, says this extraordinary piece

People write this crap because the positive case for HRC is so weak.

http://www.salon.com/2016/02/02/bernie_bros_stop_this_meme_your_dumb_joke_about_hillarys_music_taste_isnt_funny_its_predictably_sexist/

damn, this thread is already HUUUUUUUUUGE

um

https://store.tedcruz.org/product/blacklisted-loving-it-poster/

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W2VqgKeC-J0/VrDrIankK7I/AAAAAAAAeSg/YVO502nkoaA/s640/Screenshot%2B2016-02-02%2Bat%2B9.43.34%2BAM.png

person who wrote that is a music journalist, not a political writer, and the piece is ill-served by its headline xps

'It's a Miracle Trump Didn't Invent the Selfie'

When did Lefsetz start writing for der Spiegel?

David Brooks goin existential:

Donald Trump Isn’t Real

Haha omg