I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

is how I would answer

xxpost True but it's interesting all the bubbling up that things like gay marriage et al have done to that breakdown.

http://graphics.wsj.com/exit-polls-2014/

Midterm election results for 2014. Note that people making $100,000 or more - who are maybe 7-8% of the population - made up 27% of voters, and broke 57% for the Republicans. If either the richest Americans were less Republican, or if rich Americans (Democrats and the more numerous Republicans) were not so dramatically over-represented in the electorate, we would be looking at a very different Congress.

so, not ironclad proof that republicans vote more frequently because they are wealthier - though it would certainly seem to be common sense that wealthier people have more freedom/leeway to vote in terms of getting off work and not being targeted by voter suppression efforts, and also enjoy leisure time that may incline them to follow campaigns more closely and remain motivated to vote. no data on all those but is there really an argument that they don't make sense?

yup!

I still think anger explains it fine: Upscale Republicans are angry because they don't want the gubmint taking their money. Downscale Republicans are angry because they don't want the gubmint taking their guns. Limbaugh and Fox whip them up into a frenzy, they feel threatened, they vote.

Also, Republicans tend to be more motivated by a sense of duty, whereas Democrats tend to be more utilitarian. Doing the cost-benefit analysis on my single vote being a deciding vote vs. the annoyance of dragging my ass down to a polling place, standing in line etc might lead me to be less likely to vote.

ha remember this guy?

http://gawker.com/ted-cruz-stops-selling-merchandise-from-super-racist-st-1760841835

http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/probdecisive2.pdf

One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a
presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability
that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in
your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008
presidential election, using state-by-state election forecasts based on the latest polls.
The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia,
New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million
chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America
had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election.

don't knock him, he's back up to 2% at predictwise

1 in 60 million is not too bad. People turn out in droves to play the lottery when the jackpot gets big for much smaller odds than that. Actually maybe the government should give everyone who votes a lottery ticket! Could be a relatively cheap way to boost turnout.

thanks Doc

xp yup, the paper makes that point too

A probability of 1 in 10 million is tiny but, as
discussed by Edlin, Gelman, and Kaplan (2007),
can provide a rational reason for voting; in this
perspective, a vote is like a lottery ticket with
a 1 in 10 million chance of winning, but the
payoff is the chance to change national policy
and improve (one hopes) the lives of hundreds
of millions, compared to the alternative if the
other candidate were to win

Doesn't Nevada on Saturday offer the starkest illustration of why Dems don't vote as much? The Clinton campaign had to individually lobby each flippin' casino to give their workers a bit of time to go to the polls! If you want a big fat stereotype to ride into the sunset with, that's it: Republicans have the bosses and managers, Dems have the busboys and cleaning ladies.

Also, would love to see stats on car owners vs bus riders, not to mention daycare arrangements, etc.

Ross Douthat thinks Rubio should offer Kasich the VP slot now.

Ross Douthat has no emotional intelligence then. I can tell you right now: Kasich would be in a constant state of extreme irritation having to be Rubio's sidekick. He would tell him to fuck off by the third day in office.

I hope he tells him to fuck off right now.

Don't get my hopes up

hey goole i was kind of being a dick, im sorry

i totally see your point

i just live in very liberal urban area in a blue state and ime a lot of the republicans around here are actually working class whites (the data might not match w/ my experience but it def seems that way) and most of the rich people here are highly educated progressives and i think that has skewed my perspective a little bit about whether or not republicans are significantly wealthier than democrats

I think Kasich still sees himself as president - in his mind, if it's not this time around, it's 2020 as the ''it's his turn, the guy we should have picked last time if we hadn't screwed it all up'' guy against Clinton. That might look a little different when someone's actually offering a slot when the nomination's sewn up, but not while he sees himself as a long-shot with a chance, and right after his last natural rival ideologically has left the field. Also lol at ''in 2024 he wouldnt be any older than Biden!''

oh it's no problem, i didn't think you were especially dickish!

i do think the dem leadership and media set is further removed from the party rank and file than for republicans/conservatives, that's true. the democratic party only being fitfully attentive to the working class as such is a part of the motivational deficit, sure.

xp

I think Kasich still sees himself as president - in his mind, if it's not this time around, it's 2020 as the ''it's his turn, the guy we should have picked last time if we hadn't screwed it all up'' guy against Clinton.

I've been thinking this for a while now.

can ppl stop using "gubmit" in their strawmanning of conservative-speak, it reeks of classism

If Kasich really wants to appeal to the youth vote, he should rebrand himself as K-Sick and ride everywhere on a hoverboard.

damn kasich
damn kasich
back at it again with the defunding planned parenthood

also every Republican I've ever known loves to say "the federal government" articulately and emphatically

Like, he would at least start the campaign season with much higher name recognition among primary voters and the donor class than he did this time, and probably more than most possible entrants. I still think he, like Rubio really, is a mirage candidate as far as a general election goes - there's no 'electable moderate' actually there in his record.

People toss these "offer slot X to Y" things around way prematurely. "Trump should promise to nominate Cruz to SCOTUS!" "Perry for AG!" "Bolton's 'stache to the UN!" "Rubio/Cruz unity ticket!"

As if anyone is going to vote for you in a primary based on that kind of promise. Also, you'd just set yourself up to look like a mega-tool when it doesn't happen. Remember how much the Gores were ridiculed for "measuring the drapes" while the recount was still going?

The time to name your running mate is cabinet is when you're the nominee. The time to start naming your cabinet is when you're the president-elect. Full stop.

also every Republican I've ever known loves to say "the federal government" articulately and emphatically

― crüt, Tuesday, February 23, 2016 2:27 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yes very similar to how for whatever reasons sportscasters and analysts always make a big point of saying the Natoinal Football League

http://www.sfgate.com/news/politics/article/Ben-Carson-says-Obama-was-raised-white-6849347.php

Erm, "The time to name your running mate is when you're the nominee. The time to start naming your cabinet is when you're the president-elect."

(And sorry crut, I won't do that again.)

FWIW in the dextrosphere the phrase is "Feral Government"

It didn't work for Reagan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Republican_National_Convention

i.e. announcing his veep pick

man I had totally forgot that about Schweiker. Reagan trying to attract liberals!

for the last time

fuck you, Ben Carson

stuff like this today with carson and kaisch (w planned parenthood) is like everyone is so focused on trump but honestly outside of his tone was is really that much of an outlier in the modern republican party in terms of his politics and platform?

really time-consuming to reload for the last 5 hrs of posts, ppl

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/leaked-audio-catches-mika-and-joe-chatting-with-trump-during-break-nothing-too-hard-mika/

can't imagine a Bernie presidency? use THE POWER OF LOVE

http://cstpdx.com/sites/clinton/files/bernie%20for%20the%20future.jpg

really time-consuming to reload for the last 5 hrs of posts, ppl

feel free to skip reloading and just post yr usual gripes

you're dopey

http://41.media.tumblr.com/0532dd87d8d9aeba2a1ff6906f28227a/tumblr_nuue2ifCRd1r4rdsro1_500.jpg

http://interglacial.com/pub/text/Umberto_Eco_-_Eternal_Fascism.html

Had to laugh at a woman they just had on CNN: it's time for Sanders to step away gracefully, like Clinton did when Obama won the nomination.

Clinton's graciousness in 2008 is something I'll always hold near to my heart.

but honestly outside of his tone was is really that much of an outlier in the modern republican party in terms of his politics and platform?

He just said he liked the individual mandate, you don't get much more of an outlier without burning a picture of Reagan onstage.

Well, he backtracked and said that he liked the mandate for insurance to cover sick people - which, thanks for reminding people that Obamacare made that happen!

you don't get much more of an outlier without burning a picture of Reagan onstage.

― Andrew Farrell

would borrow money to watch this tbh

what is the etymology of 'dextrosphere', a term i had not previously encountered

From "dexter", Latin for "right"

Presumably a back formation from "rightosphere"

How many of you don't like a Trump Presidency because you're afraid gangs of his supporters will beat you up? It's had to cross your mind a little bit.