I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

"I've looked into it" as proof positive will be Trump's enduring legacy

Mitt Romney ‏@MittRomney 2h2 hours ago
Methinks the Donald doth protest too much. Show voters your back taxes, @realDonaldTrump. #WhatIsHeHiding

Doesn't matter, he already called Mitt "a fool," case closed

Believe me, I've looked into my tax returns, they're great

I have a guy, one of the best guys, he called me, he said, look, these are the best returns I've ever seen—and this is a smart guy, one of the smartest

oh cool, shakespeare jokes

stand down everybody mitt's here to douse this populist fuse

if there's anybody the GOP rank and file will listen to about how bad Trump is, it's Mitt Romney

Jay Cost ‎@JayCostTWS

Attention sane Republicans. The number to stop Trump is 1236 delegates. Learn it. Love it. LIVE IT. 1236. 1236. 1236. 1236. 1236. 1236. 1236
3:12 PM - 24 Feb 2016

126 126 Retweets
115

I'm still mulling over the obvious question with Romney: is he deluded enough to think the party will turn to him in an open convention? I can't see why he wants to get involved--is he actually that loyal to a party that kind of hates him?

yes

he has nothing to lose by attacking Trump, unlike a lot of other "establishment" GOP cronies

he just has to knock that one essential piece loose and Trump will come toppling down like a giant Jenga tower

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2016/02/25/poll-trumps-negatives-among-hispanics-rise-worst-in-gop-field/

― Οὖτις, Thursday, 25 February 2016 17:03 (2 hours ago) Permalink

yeah, the latest poll quoted in that article was conducted by univision and surveyed their own audience. my understanding is that univision does most of the legwork to sway hispanics to the democratic party. so these polls exemplify a job well done for univision. i was talking to a couple mexican guys and they seemed pretty concerned that the democrats don't exactly have a great track record on immigration. i guess a lot of them feel pretty used by the democrats. but i'm pretty sure they're voting republican.

with regard to how hispanics vote, they have mostly always voted democrat, right?

that politico article ned posted has some truth to it. hispanics find it easier to align themselves with conservatives when they see hispanics running for the gop nomination; cruz, rubio, etc. if hispanic conservative gop nominees don't call out trump on immigration, then they think it's a non-issue created by the democrats, a party that they feel disenfranchised by on matters of immigration.

it's bizarre that hispanics are the largest minority group, yet are scarcely represented. but i was doing some searching and found a guardian article that says hispanics live in the poorest communities in the us and have a really low educational attainment rate and high levels of unemployoment[0].

[0] http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/18/most-hispanics-vote-democrat-but-most-hispanic-politicians-are-republican-marco-rubio-ted-cruz

From that 538 article above:

Rubio’s increasingly tenuous path depends on his ability to win a series of winner-take-all states with high proportions of white-collar, college-educated Republicans, most critically his home state of Florida on March 15.

lol

Someone needs to doctor a video of Trump weeping copiously. Feel like that could do the trick.

"I dropped my lolleeeeeeee!"

Trump actually supported Romney last time--saw a interview from 2012 where he was defending Romney when Romney's taxes became an issue. So Romney's attacking someone who defended him rather than attack the party that basically humiliated him during the primaries by giving Perry, Gingrich, Cain, and Santorum a revolving-door chance to be the not-Romney.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wepQa4gC5Yw

@realDonaldTrump
FMR PRES of Mexico, Vicente Fox horribly used the F word when discussing the wall. He must apologize! If I did that there would be a uproar!

a master at work

Seriously. He's a horrendous human being on almost every level, but the paradoxical efficacy of his mealy-mouthed straight talk is a wonder to behold.

trump can be beaten:

https://youtu.be/k8TwRmX6zs4

hispanics find it easier to align themselves with conservatives when they see hispanics running for the gop nomination; cruz, rubio, etc

wrong

oh that clarifies it! thanks for your erudition

keith ellison in versailles, last year

https://twitter.com/keithellison/status/702863536616157184

if hispanic conservative gop nominees don't call out trump on immigration, then they think it's a non-issue created by the democrats, a party that they feel disenfranchised by on matters of immigration.

right because democrats have been campaigning on building a goddamn wall to keep out the rapists and murders

trump has proudly made this an issue, has put it front and center in his campaign. why would hispanics think trump's outspoken thoughts about immigration are a made up non-issue by the democrats?

Because the other GOP candidates don't talk about it? I didn't follow infinity's logic either

yeah, wondering what people thinking that trump couldn't make it this far were actually paying attention to or reading. maybe they just sought confirmation bias (on twitter)

xps

with regard to how hispanics vote, they have mostly always voted democrat, right?

yes, but increasingly so.

--1980 Jimmy Carter, 56% Ronald Reagan, 35% +21

--1984 Walter Mondale, 61% Ronald Reagan, 37% +24

--1988 Michael Dukakis, 69% George H.W. Bush, 30% +39

--1992 Bill Clinton, 61% George H.W. Bush, 25% +36

--1996 Bill Clinton, 72% Bob Dole, 21% +51

--2000 Al Gore, 62% George W. Bush, 35% +27

--2004 John Kerry, 58% George W. Bush, 40% +18

--2008 Barack Obama, 67% John McCain, 31% +36

--2012 Barack Obama, 71% Mitt Romney, 27% +44

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/features/2016-02-24/behind-bernie-sanders-revolution-lies-a-meticulously-engineered-grassroots-network

Somewhat fascinating piece on the intricate organizing network behind Sanders' campaign (although I wish it was a little better written/explained).

GWB the main exception obv, though he still lost them

Because the other GOP candidates don't talk about it? I didn't follow infinity's logic either

― Karl Malone, Thursday, February 25, 2016 4:11 PM (2 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

yea the GOP candidates don't want to talk about it bc they risk losing any of the racist white voters who aren't already trump fans

yeah, wondering what people thinking that trump couldn't make it this far were actually paying attention to or reading. maybe they just sought confirmation bias (on twitter)

I think they were assuming that his horse-ass-itude would cause him to flame out the way some semi-similar crazies did the previous election cycle. Or he'd get bored and quit.

trump can be beaten:

https://youtu.be/k8TwRmX6zs4

― goole, Thursday, February 25, 2016 3:52 PM (23 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is such a great video

right because democrats have been campaigning on building a goddamn wall to keep out the rapists and murders

― marcos, Thursday, February 25, 2016 9:08 PM (5 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

are you suggesting that all (legal) hispanic immigrants are opposed to building a wall?

i would suspect that most are, yea

sure, not all. there are also what 10% of african americans who are republican? it happens

i think most people who figured trump would have failed by now perhaps didn't foresee this many candidates staying in the race so late? that has played a big role in trump's success in the primaries. the general is a whole other thing and trump simply just doesn't have the demographics to do it. romney got what 59, 60% of the white vote in 2012 but he still lost by 4 points. i can't see trump improving romney's 27% rate w/ hispanics, it won't happen

obama dropping the mufasa held up to the sun clip as his "birth video" is rad

i would suspect that most are, yea

― marcos, Thursday, February 25, 2016 4:21 PM

I've got a couple aunts who would love to meet you.

another part of trump's success is that the other GOP candidates are terrified of attacking him and have done a piss-poor job whenever they have

nobody has really done what obama did in that white house correspondents video, which is to immediately shred any notion suggesting he should be taken seriously as a presidential candidate

The media as a whole refused to take him seriously until they were finally forced to by his stubbornly high poll numbers. I don't think refusing to take him seriously is an option at this point.

marcos

sorry, there is a minority of hispanic voters that vote republican and i'm quickly becoming fascinated by their impetus to do so. i don't believe what you are saying is accurate, given my experiences with talking to some of the hispanic community in los angeles

There is traditionally seen to be a difference between Cuban-Americans (historically conservative in USian terms) and other Latinos/Hispanics (historically liberal in USian terms).

Many Cuban exiles have tended to align with the American right wing because of its perceived staunch anti-communism (understandably!). At least some of those were displaced elites from pre-Castro Cuba - some of whom arrived not by overstaying a visa, swimming across a river, or jumping a fence with $5 and a head full of dreams, but rather on a chartered plane with a suitcase full of gold bullion.

Now: it is totally not my place to define who is and who isn't entitled to be considered Hispanic, or what is or isn't the correct way to be an immigrant. But different groups have had different experiences (on a group level) and that may help explain some of the the differences in those populations' political development over the past several decades.

Or maybe I'm just excessively influenced by Joan Didion's Miami, which I read 20 years ago and which isn't very helpful any more.

or you can ask me

I'm acquainted with a handful of Hispanic GOP voters, and their reasoning is in line with anyone else in the party (immigration, guns, taxes, faith etc.).

Cubans are the beneficiaries of the most generous integration package in American history. Thanks to the Cuban Adjustment Act, any Cuban whose feet touch American soil qualifies for federal aid and can become a permanent resident a year and a day after arrival. Many like to think they succeeded on their own, and while it's true that men like my grandfather went from being an administrator in the Royal Bank of Canada to selling ties on Eighth Street, they bought homes at low interest rates, received food stamps, and small business loans. They succeeded through their own initiative and because the federal government was committed to making them succeed, a fact that devastated the newly empowered African American community in post-Jim Crow Miami.

Yeah or what Lord Alfred said.

(Just wish to underscore that that preferential treatment was 100% a salvo in the Cold War; it was not because Cuban emigres were more awesome than persons coming from Mexico, the DR, etc.)

anyway traditionally we go by shirt color iirc.

― denies the existence of dark matter (difficult listening hour)

with Trump they'd be Orange-shirts, rite?

the Orange Hundreds

http://www.billjamesonline.com/trump_as_in_rump/