I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

'it doesn't matter who the gop nominates' seems like a much more controversial statement than 'nobody really cares to spend money in the gop vs dem betting market right now so it's not a very useful source of information'

you do this calculation but with republicans and trump

http://www.separatinghyperplanes.com/2015/10/some-quick-electoral-prediction-math.html

no debate mashups for lunch... CNN was running a live DT stump speech in its entirety. bcz they're all so different.

feel like u have an osha complaint on yr hands

'it doesn't matter who the gop nominates' seems like a much more controversial statement than 'nobody really cares to spend money in the gop vs dem betting market right now so it's not a very useful source of information'

― iatee, Friday, February 26, 2016 2:12 PM (1 minute ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

knowing who the gop nominates doesn't allow the market to make better predictions about the outcome of the election. it's in that sense it "doesn't matter"

i'm not saying the real odds are 61/39 or whatever they are. i'm saying they are stable because nothing has changed.

so the "woe is us" stuff this week has been crazy

or at least not based on new news

bernie fans r such awful smug meme posting blowhards

will you... stop... stop... STOP evaluating your last chance to not see the fucking Waterworld in your lifetime by extrapolating everything from DICKS ON THE INTERNETZ? ty

knowing who the gop nominates allows the market to make massively better predictions about the outcome of the election!

the revolution is so happening
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/sanderss-candidates-for-congress-an-snl-alum-a-hay-farmer-and-a-guy-with-a-bernie-tattoo/2016/02/26/6e44bd7c-da4c-11e5-81ae-7491b9b9e7df_story.html

will you... stop... stop... STOP evaluating your last chance to not see the fucking Waterworld in your lifetime by extrapolating everything from DICKS ON THE INTERNETZ? ty

― we can be heroes just for about 3.6 seconds (Dr Morbius), Friday, February 26, 2016 2:16 PM (38 seconds ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

jeez i didnt say i was evaluating bernie based on that morbs

haha shout out to Fetterman xpost

He said it would be great if liberals could ride Sanders’s coattails into Congress. But it is not Sanders’s job to get them there. “I don’t think he can go and buy them coats,” Chamberlain said.

lol

morbs intense distaste for that movie has actually been fueling his politics for decades now

not a great film tbf

the next president will not have the power to stop 'the fucking Waterworld' even if they want to

GARY KROEGER IS RUNNING FOR CONGRESS???

knowing who the gop nominates allows the market to make massively better predictions about the outcome of the election!

― iatee, Friday, February 26, 2016 2:16 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

if the market is confident that the none of the GOP candidates would beat hilary then not really

also if we're getting a Waterworld anyway, I think we should be allowed to fuck in it

who will stop the waterworld reboot tho

thank god there aren't any smug hillary fans who've been going "he can't win...he can't win..." for the last year

xp to self i mean they're not betting whether the debates will be civil or not, they're simply betting on who will wake up president the morning after the election

https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/02/26/Others/Images/2016-02-26/Revolution1456509910.jpg?uuid=fG5RONyzEeWCEPC9jekV9g

reminds me of http://www.theonion.com/article/biden-has-guy-named-worm-sit-in-for-him-at-cabinet-33250

here are a coupla Hillary fans who are actually writers. One is marginally famous, and they both are doing their identity-politics category stereotypical harm. that's all i'll say.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/eileenmyles/hillary-clinton-the-leader-you-want-when-the-world-ends#.srwJwJGeB

http://gaycitynews.nyc/election-2016-misogyny-audacity-plans/

http://media.philly.com/images/3+x+2+John+Fetterman.jpg

“I do not look like a typical politician, I don't even look like a normal person."

professional hillary fans r a diff story obvs there are lots of those im talkin abt the meme lovin masses

if the market is confident that the none of the GOP candidates would beat hilary then not really

I don't think it is reasonable to believe that rubio and trump have exactly the same chances at beating clinton and if hedge funds or whatever was spending real money on these markets the gop vs dem market wouldn't be super stable. it's super stable cause it's more fun to bet on trump vs rubio.

I think there is probably some psychological barrier to that 60% number, 'clinton has a 75% chance at winning the president' feels like a really aggressive prediction...but it's not.

thank god there aren't any smug hillary fans who've been going "he can't win...he can't win..." for the last year

yeah but we don't subject you to this in meme form

memes r worse than hiltler i think we can all agree

People have been getting so many things wrong this season, really reflects more poorly than usual on the pundit class:

They said Trump wouldn't run.
They said his numbers would force him to drop out early.
They said Jeb! was inevitable.
They said Hillary would have it easy.
They said Sanders would not be a contender.
They said dark money super pacs would determine the direction of the campaign/GOP.

At this point, cannot see this mess settling into any sort of familiar rhythm, even when/if the field is whittled down to two candidates.

tbh i'll take a smug annoying meme over a smug annoying thinkpiece any day

thinkpieces are easier to avoid, you just don't click on them, or if you accidentally click on them you don't read them

memes are like airborne diseases

i'm addicted to memes

Won't happen, but what if there were a four-way race, with Trump and Sanders going independent?

1) can we start a new thread? this one is huuuuuuge (as trump might say)

2) how many of you are still convinced that trump can't win? i admit that i'm growing more terrified by the day.

the pundit profession is such a joke

josh you're asking ilx pundits what would happen after mentioning that pundits were terrible at predicting what happened. there is no historical precedent for that situation. regardless bernie sanders is not gonna run as a 3rd party candidate because he is not actually crazy or dedicated to sabotaging the democratic party. trump, who knows.

you should update your prior in favour of polls and unfavour of prediction markets given that they failed to predict trump and were stable on Jeb winning until not so long ago

2) how many of you are still convinced that trump can't win? i admit that i'm growing more terrified by the day.

my gut says he can't beat bernie or hillary but anyone who thinks they know for sure what will happen at this pt is a fool

polls too far out r p much useless tho xp

xpost oh, yeah, I mean, I know that, just playing games.

prediction markets are nothing but conventional wisdom turned into numbers. especially with something like 'who's gonna win the presidency' when there's not any insider info or anything to move the markets. we're currently in a period where convention wisdom has been totally torn to shreds.

smug meme posting blowhards on Facebook?

well i never...

i love Hillary supporter's brilliant tactic of constantly insulting Bernie supporters. makes me like her even more.

im voting bernie m8

prediction markets are useful to answer

1) has conventional wisdom changed?
2) what is conventional wisdom?

ive actually voted for bernie before so plz worship me make a meme of me

https://twitter.com/AndrewKirell/status/703066346469400576

the pundit CW was "No one like Trump has ever been nominated," and that's true. When something new happens it's called history though, which happens now and then. See also "Wall Street always comes back from a downturn..." I'm sorry I may not be around to see that one smashed to widdy biddy pieces.

i mean flooded to rushing gushing fllortrader exploding lungs