I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

the next president will not have the power to stop 'the fucking Waterworld' even if they want to

GARY KROEGER IS RUNNING FOR CONGRESS???

knowing who the gop nominates allows the market to make massively better predictions about the outcome of the election!

― iatee, Friday, February 26, 2016 2:16 PM (3 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

if the market is confident that the none of the GOP candidates would beat hilary then not really

also if we're getting a Waterworld anyway, I think we should be allowed to fuck in it

who will stop the waterworld reboot tho

thank god there aren't any smug hillary fans who've been going "he can't win...he can't win..." for the last year

xp to self i mean they're not betting whether the debates will be civil or not, they're simply betting on who will wake up president the morning after the election

https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1484w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2016/02/26/Others/Images/2016-02-26/Revolution1456509910.jpg?uuid=fG5RONyzEeWCEPC9jekV9g

reminds me of http://www.theonion.com/article/biden-has-guy-named-worm-sit-in-for-him-at-cabinet-33250

here are a coupla Hillary fans who are actually writers. One is marginally famous, and they both are doing their identity-politics category stereotypical harm. that's all i'll say.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/eileenmyles/hillary-clinton-the-leader-you-want-when-the-world-ends#.srwJwJGeB

http://gaycitynews.nyc/election-2016-misogyny-audacity-plans/

http://media.philly.com/images/3+x+2+John+Fetterman.jpg

“I do not look like a typical politician, I don't even look like a normal person."

professional hillary fans r a diff story obvs there are lots of those im talkin abt the meme lovin masses

if the market is confident that the none of the GOP candidates would beat hilary then not really

I don't think it is reasonable to believe that rubio and trump have exactly the same chances at beating clinton and if hedge funds or whatever was spending real money on these markets the gop vs dem market wouldn't be super stable. it's super stable cause it's more fun to bet on trump vs rubio.

I think there is probably some psychological barrier to that 60% number, 'clinton has a 75% chance at winning the president' feels like a really aggressive prediction...but it's not.

thank god there aren't any smug hillary fans who've been going "he can't win...he can't win..." for the last year

yeah but we don't subject you to this in meme form

memes r worse than hiltler i think we can all agree

People have been getting so many things wrong this season, really reflects more poorly than usual on the pundit class:

They said Trump wouldn't run.
They said his numbers would force him to drop out early.
They said Jeb! was inevitable.
They said Hillary would have it easy.
They said Sanders would not be a contender.
They said dark money super pacs would determine the direction of the campaign/GOP.

At this point, cannot see this mess settling into any sort of familiar rhythm, even when/if the field is whittled down to two candidates.

tbh i'll take a smug annoying meme over a smug annoying thinkpiece any day

thinkpieces are easier to avoid, you just don't click on them, or if you accidentally click on them you don't read them

memes are like airborne diseases

i'm addicted to memes

Won't happen, but what if there were a four-way race, with Trump and Sanders going independent?

1) can we start a new thread? this one is huuuuuuge (as trump might say)

2) how many of you are still convinced that trump can't win? i admit that i'm growing more terrified by the day.

the pundit profession is such a joke

josh you're asking ilx pundits what would happen after mentioning that pundits were terrible at predicting what happened. there is no historical precedent for that situation. regardless bernie sanders is not gonna run as a 3rd party candidate because he is not actually crazy or dedicated to sabotaging the democratic party. trump, who knows.

you should update your prior in favour of polls and unfavour of prediction markets given that they failed to predict trump and were stable on Jeb winning until not so long ago

2) how many of you are still convinced that trump can't win? i admit that i'm growing more terrified by the day.

my gut says he can't beat bernie or hillary but anyone who thinks they know for sure what will happen at this pt is a fool

polls too far out r p much useless tho xp

xpost oh, yeah, I mean, I know that, just playing games.

prediction markets are nothing but conventional wisdom turned into numbers. especially with something like 'who's gonna win the presidency' when there's not any insider info or anything to move the markets. we're currently in a period where convention wisdom has been totally torn to shreds.

smug meme posting blowhards on Facebook?

well i never...

i love Hillary supporter's brilliant tactic of constantly insulting Bernie supporters. makes me like her even more.

im voting bernie m8

prediction markets are useful to answer

1) has conventional wisdom changed?
2) what is conventional wisdom?

ive actually voted for bernie before so plz worship me make a meme of me

https://twitter.com/AndrewKirell/status/703066346469400576

the pundit CW was "No one like Trump has ever been nominated," and that's true. When something new happens it's called history though, which happens now and then. See also "Wall Street always comes back from a downturn..." I'm sorry I may not be around to see that one smashed to widdy biddy pieces.

i mean flooded to rushing gushing fllortrader exploding lungs

the people answering those prediction market questions are answering with head not heart, which is not to say they know more than the pundit class (or even that they are different people), but that they care more about being right than they do changing things or being seen to be right.

also empirically prediction markets have done better than polls. being better than something very bad and increasingly useless is damning with faint praise though, i know.

Trump will lose and I'm a fool.

i love Hillary supporter's brilliant tactic of constantly insulting Bernie supporters. makes me like her even more.

― AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, February 26, 2016 7:44 PM (9 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

bernie stans 'hillary is worse than hitler Im not voting for her' tactics dont make me like him either.

the supporters are bad but the candidates...the candidates are extremely good

idk if prediction markets reflect conventional wisdom exactly, if expert wisdom disagrees with conventional wisdom and an expert places a bit that changes the probabilities it becomes expert wisdom.

i donated 50 beans to bernie's campaignrevolution yet a lot of the smug memes annoy the hell outta me and tempt the smoldering neoliberal within me. i'm also cool with hilary and try to defend her against haters from the left. i actually find her kinda likable and smart-seeming in the debates

also even if they don't fuck or whatever i find the idea of a couple where both husband and wife have commanded the most powerful nation in the world really hot

if you guys don't want to see smug memes maybe you shouldn't logon to Facebook

if you don't want to smell piss don't walk around downtown

if you guys don't want to see smug memes maybe you shouldn't logon to Facebook

― AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, February 26, 2016 3:01 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

reasonable tbh

i know what you mean flopson, when they deregulated banks and took food away from poor children my boner was goin'

the people answering those prediction market questions are answering with head not heart, which is not to say they know more than the pundit class (or even that they are different people), but that they care more about being right than they do changing things or being seen to be right.

also empirically prediction markets have done better than polls. being better than something very bad and increasingly useless is damning with faint praise though, i know.

I'm not anti-prediction markets, I think having some marker of conventional wisdom is useful, but it's important to remember that these markets are really small. like for the previous few elections there was evidence that one or two people single-handedly pushed the intrade market. I made some money off those people. in any case, it makes sense that prediction markets that can take information from tons of polls and contextualize them would outperform polls alone.

My only request, if it becomes clear that Trump will be elected, is that we keep building that wall higher until it's a dome covering the entire country. And then we detonate all of the nukes for the sake of the rest of the world that maybe still has a chance.

the people answering those prediction market questions are answering with head not heart, which is not to say they know more than the pundit class (or even that they are different people), but that they care more about being right than they do changing things or being seen to be right

how do we know this? i mean, the actual financial markets often lack a strong connection to irl circumstances despite having a lot of data that these predictors presumably don't.

at least the presidential prediction market has an endpoint in time, i suppose

i wld actually like to see trump attempt to build his beautiful wall tbh and to make mexico pay for it

trump is in this mostly to build that wall/out negotiate mexico imo