I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

if you guys don't want to see smug memes maybe you shouldn't logon to Facebook

― AdamVania (Adam Bruneau), Friday, February 26, 2016 3:01 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

reasonable tbh

i know what you mean flopson, when they deregulated banks and took food away from poor children my boner was goin'

the people answering those prediction market questions are answering with head not heart, which is not to say they know more than the pundit class (or even that they are different people), but that they care more about being right than they do changing things or being seen to be right.

also empirically prediction markets have done better than polls. being better than something very bad and increasingly useless is damning with faint praise though, i know.

I'm not anti-prediction markets, I think having some marker of conventional wisdom is useful, but it's important to remember that these markets are really small. like for the previous few elections there was evidence that one or two people single-handedly pushed the intrade market. I made some money off those people. in any case, it makes sense that prediction markets that can take information from tons of polls and contextualize them would outperform polls alone.

My only request, if it becomes clear that Trump will be elected, is that we keep building that wall higher until it's a dome covering the entire country. And then we detonate all of the nukes for the sake of the rest of the world that maybe still has a chance.

the people answering those prediction market questions are answering with head not heart, which is not to say they know more than the pundit class (or even that they are different people), but that they care more about being right than they do changing things or being seen to be right

how do we know this? i mean, the actual financial markets often lack a strong connection to irl circumstances despite having a lot of data that these predictors presumably don't.

at least the presidential prediction market has an endpoint in time, i suppose

i wld actually like to see trump attempt to build his beautiful wall tbh and to make mexico pay for it

trump is in this mostly to build that wall/out negotiate mexico imo

look we all know it is ridiculous to think that mexico could be bullied into paying for it

canada otoh...

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/1/13/PinkFloydWallCoverOriginalNoText.jpg/220px-PinkFloydWallCoverOriginalNoText.jpg

he just really wants to build a fantastic wall hes the best at building things

a good burn wld be if hillary promised to make trump secretary of building the wall and getting the money for it from mexico

building a wall would be a p dope public employment program tbf, def pay people to build stuff and if the money comes from mexico all the better. maybe president trump could get congress to compromise -- build the wall but at the same time liberalize immigration policy

build walls against the ocean might be a good idea

would the wall read TRUMP on it like his skyscraper in chicago?

i can hardly make jokes about this guy anymore, the laughter sticks in my throat. if someone kills him i'll be ready to make jokes again.

hmmm xxp

Trump returns to his roots in prop comedy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7kfT4xRFhk

building the wall and getting Canada to pay for it is part of the plot of infinite jest iirc

he really is a pure fascist the american mussolini what a bizarre dude

build walls against the ocean might be a good idea

― lag∞n, Friday, February 26, 2016 3:17 PM (4 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

ha otm

would the wall read TRUMP on it like his skyscraper in chicago?

http://design.newcity.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/rump.jpeg

is there a prediction market meme

how do we know this? i mean, the actual financial markets often lack a strong connection to irl circumstances despite having a lot of data that these predictors presumably don't.

― mookieproof, Friday, February 26, 2016 3:09 PM (11 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is fair. i guess the argument is that empirically they have worked (in the sense of doing better than pretty much anything else) for the last few years. i'm guilty of post hoc here though i know.

iatee if the market was that small then it would be less stable, not more stable (unless you think there's almost no one betting).

http://49.media.tumblr.com/e91443ff2d0572657136d8e98bb459ff/tumblr_mjdirx20wV1s7gfo5o1_400.gif

xp

Meantime in right wing swamp fever land:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/02/breaking-christie-endorses-trump.php

I spoke with a prominent person in Washington just now—a name you’d recognize—who told me he thinks the Obama administration is behind this, with a threat to Christie that he’d be prosecuted for “Bridgegate” unless he endorsed Trump.

compared to real markets, yeah I think there's almost no one betting.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/09/23/one-big-trader-lost-millions-betting-on-romney-study-finds

lmao nice xp

now we know what Bachmann has been up to

i dont really get the rubio is a water bottle joke

hes sweaty

Rubio is not a water bottle, he is a robot. Get it straight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19ZxJVnM5Gs

he is gonna fry his own circuits on stage one day

http://38.media.tumblr.com/b360ad71ba656f0e1bf69c5e2d057800/tumblr_inline_n71pfjq4eJ1qcwjy8.jpg

couldn't they build him some kind of internal cooling system or something?

maybe the shiller thing applies to prediction markets? like, in a good forecast/rational market the noisier the underlying thing being forecasted the less volatile the more stable the forecast (ie weather forecasts reverting to historical means far out) but in irl financial markets it's the opposite, forecasts of noisy things are more volatile, noise traders follow the random movements and smart money has to move against them to take the arbitrage opportunity.

haha the rubio water-break thing from the SOTU response is so great

if someone lost _millions_ shifting the market a few % like that in 2012 (i also bet against that person on intrade lol good times) then the market is by defn active enough that it takes millions to shift it.

in any case no activity at all on the 2016 outcome market for the past couple of months seems pretty far fetched.

and if it's _at all_ active then the only explanation for stability like you see in the current GOP vs dem market is that it's active enough to maintain stability. small markets have wild shifts on individual trades.

"a name you'd recognize" is grebt. Could be John or Bob or Mary! I recognize those names. Lots of people have them

I keep trying to bookmark this thread and it doesn't work -- like Rubio trying to keep from reaching for a water bottle

I think people are making smaller bets on the gop vs dem market partly because it's less fun than betting on candidates. if you read that wsj article - most people are betting on candidates they favored, and sticking with them. that's very much hearts not heads.

also this is just my guess, but I think 60% operates as some sort of mental ceiling for how much people want to think about a race where one of the parties is actually wildly favored. but I don't think the fact that it hovers around a round number is a coincidence.

Here's my question: How many of Donald Trump's insane ideas do people in this thread a) think he'll remember by the time he takes office - it's not like he's writing this shit down, after all, and b) think he can get through Congress?

http://i.imgur.com/ZDrVeSr.png

ah i get the significance of yr 60% point. interesting (although i don't agree because personally i do all my betting in base 16, and it's not a round number in that)

https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jT0IB-ef6a1gplA__X7oW4qltkc=/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6111515/trump%20gif.gif

I think the question is less about what vaguely-stated policy positions Donald Trump honestly intends to follow through on (my guess: roughly zero) and more about what his angle is in wanting to be president in the first place. Does he have some shifty scheme up his sleeve to make bank as president? Does he think this will give him leverage on construction projects overseas or some shit? He doesn't strike me as someone who believes in much beyond $$$ so I have a hard time seeing him throwing his presidential weight at any issue that doesn't benefit him (and probably only him) directly.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-libel-sue-media

'Cause yeah, America's libel laws are totally keeping me awake at night and are gonna kill my future children...

he desires power xp

yeah it's not complicated

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/26/new-jersey-gov-chris-christie-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/

the tone of this is really odd - Christie's a pariah and a loser, who in the GOP voting base cares about his endorsement?