I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

how do we know this? i mean, the actual financial markets often lack a strong connection to irl circumstances despite having a lot of data that these predictors presumably don't.

― mookieproof, Friday, February 26, 2016 3:09 PM (11 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

this is fair. i guess the argument is that empirically they have worked (in the sense of doing better than pretty much anything else) for the last few years. i'm guilty of post hoc here though i know.

iatee if the market was that small then it would be less stable, not more stable (unless you think there's almost no one betting).

http://49.media.tumblr.com/e91443ff2d0572657136d8e98bb459ff/tumblr_mjdirx20wV1s7gfo5o1_400.gif

xp

Meantime in right wing swamp fever land:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/02/breaking-christie-endorses-trump.php

I spoke with a prominent person in Washington just now—a name you’d recognize—who told me he thinks the Obama administration is behind this, with a threat to Christie that he’d be prosecuted for “Bridgegate” unless he endorsed Trump.

compared to real markets, yeah I think there's almost no one betting.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/09/23/one-big-trader-lost-millions-betting-on-romney-study-finds

lmao nice xp

now we know what Bachmann has been up to

i dont really get the rubio is a water bottle joke

hes sweaty

Rubio is not a water bottle, he is a robot. Get it straight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19ZxJVnM5Gs

he is gonna fry his own circuits on stage one day

http://38.media.tumblr.com/b360ad71ba656f0e1bf69c5e2d057800/tumblr_inline_n71pfjq4eJ1qcwjy8.jpg

couldn't they build him some kind of internal cooling system or something?

maybe the shiller thing applies to prediction markets? like, in a good forecast/rational market the noisier the underlying thing being forecasted the less volatile the more stable the forecast (ie weather forecasts reverting to historical means far out) but in irl financial markets it's the opposite, forecasts of noisy things are more volatile, noise traders follow the random movements and smart money has to move against them to take the arbitrage opportunity.

haha the rubio water-break thing from the SOTU response is so great

if someone lost _millions_ shifting the market a few % like that in 2012 (i also bet against that person on intrade lol good times) then the market is by defn active enough that it takes millions to shift it.

in any case no activity at all on the 2016 outcome market for the past couple of months seems pretty far fetched.

and if it's _at all_ active then the only explanation for stability like you see in the current GOP vs dem market is that it's active enough to maintain stability. small markets have wild shifts on individual trades.

"a name you'd recognize" is grebt. Could be John or Bob or Mary! I recognize those names. Lots of people have them

I keep trying to bookmark this thread and it doesn't work -- like Rubio trying to keep from reaching for a water bottle

I think people are making smaller bets on the gop vs dem market partly because it's less fun than betting on candidates. if you read that wsj article - most people are betting on candidates they favored, and sticking with them. that's very much hearts not heads.

also this is just my guess, but I think 60% operates as some sort of mental ceiling for how much people want to think about a race where one of the parties is actually wildly favored. but I don't think the fact that it hovers around a round number is a coincidence.

Here's my question: How many of Donald Trump's insane ideas do people in this thread a) think he'll remember by the time he takes office - it's not like he's writing this shit down, after all, and b) think he can get through Congress?

http://i.imgur.com/ZDrVeSr.png

ah i get the significance of yr 60% point. interesting (although i don't agree because personally i do all my betting in base 16, and it's not a round number in that)

https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/jT0IB-ef6a1gplA__X7oW4qltkc=/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6111515/trump%20gif.gif

I think the question is less about what vaguely-stated policy positions Donald Trump honestly intends to follow through on (my guess: roughly zero) and more about what his angle is in wanting to be president in the first place. Does he have some shifty scheme up his sleeve to make bank as president? Does he think this will give him leverage on construction projects overseas or some shit? He doesn't strike me as someone who believes in much beyond $$$ so I have a hard time seeing him throwing his presidential weight at any issue that doesn't benefit him (and probably only him) directly.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/donald-trump-libel-sue-media

'Cause yeah, America's libel laws are totally keeping me awake at night and are gonna kill my future children...

he desires power xp

yeah it's not complicated

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/26/new-jersey-gov-chris-christie-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/

the tone of this is really odd - Christie's a pariah and a loser, who in the GOP voting base cares about his endorsement?

Has he exhibited previous desires for power without attendant acquisition of wealth, though? If he just wanted power, why not run for mayor of NYC or something before now?

Christie feels like he needs to prove to himself that he still matters?

haha the rubio water-break thing from the SOTU response is so great

― marcos, Friday, February 26, 2016 2:36 PM (28 minutes ago) Bookmark Flag Post Permalink

you like that video, huh?

hmmmm, I'm starting to get suspicious...

feeling thirsty.... marco(s)?!?!?

"he was on television, dummy"

now he's on EVERY DAY, FOR HOURS

xxp

lol xp

Christie wants to make a bullyboy speech at the convention, if he's still at liberty

i laugh at rubio for sure but i do frequently need water during presentations

he shdve just drank the water like a big boy

i had to give a staff-wide presentation at my job a few years ago and i had this like big 40oz stainless steel bottle and i was aware of how silly it looked when i drank from it mid sentence

i think part of what was funny too was that rubio's bottle was that like tiny 6oz thing

ambitious young republicans fucking up the state of the union responce is an excellent american tradition imo

usually he prefers a sippy cup

xp

ha definitely xp

it was also the way he attempted to keep his eyes on the camera lens

nikki haley's bug-eyed alien transmission thing was pretty great this year

Nixon sweated just as much and never had this sissy waterbottle option

http://i.imgur.com/go08flz.jpg

this sort of thing comes off better as an offhanded zing than a vendetta, trump not used to ppl talking back

my favorite part is that little pause right before, like "should I do it, aw heck sure"

he wants that water so bad the whole time

just gimmie the lil sip i need it

Trump winning and tapping Christie as AG is terrifying

Would have been better if he turned around and had a sip facing away from the camera miles davis style