I will keep doing, but not worth it! The 2016 Presidential Primary Voting Thread

there will be nervous nellies cos of that one guy at Stonybrook and his computer model

(who will probably be writing a WAyne Allyn Root 'i thought my system worked' mea culpa in Dec)

democrats need 30 seats to win the house - that seems like a lot but has happened twice in presidential years (1964 + 1980) and 6 times during midterm elections

worst case scenario for republican party could see them losing all 3 branches of government in one year

(well not potus but u know what i mean)

yeah trump puts that in play imo as well as long term losses for the party, its crazy they cant get their act together to oppose him

gotta feel for the Repubs

"alright, we got through the last 4 of Obama, the country is angry, and tired of 8 years of a black man democrat in the oval office. Now it's ours for the taking!"

'But uhh, Trump...'

"Oh that guy? he usually runs for two months then withdraws, idgaf"

man, i do not feel at ALL for the republicans

haha i don't either, I was pandering to their sensibilities for a moment.

cos y'know they totally read this thread

i will occasionally hyperventilate about trump until election day because a 1% chance of pure chaos is still alarming to me, but yes, that nyt was one of the best starts to a saturday in a loooong time

xpost

a lone tear falls down mcconnell's cheek as he scans through his ILX bookmarks

awww, Mitch, it's ok. Come on over and post to a Chillwave thread. You'll feel a lot better if you do.

But Mr. Kasich has told at least one person that his plan is to win the Ohio primary

this is also my plan

been thinking abt it and feel like this years failure of prognostication is overblown cause it was all based on the idea that the republicans leadership wld actually attempt to defeat trump but then they didnt which makes no sense, they do want to stop him they just never got around to it, dont feel like its reasonable to expect anyone to have seen that one coming

i think more broadly -- given the changing demographics of voters, the limits of polling data, and the ever-changing media landscape -- the idea that certain electoral trends can be accurately predicted by looking at historical data is severely overstated across the board

whats funny is all the pundits saying trump wld fade prob helped convince the gop that they didnt have to attack him lol dum

agree that fundamentals based prediction models are p flawed but most of the ppl betting against trump werent stats guys

looking forward to mcconnell saying they can't rush through a supreme court nominee during the brief four years of hillary's term

xp I don't think this is true though, but a lot of those models rely on the importance of endorsements of which Trump had basically zero.

If everyone's so angry why isn't Hulk runninh

He's Green Party.

Lol just drove by a gaggle of Cruz supporters. It was sad, everybody either ignoring them or flipping them off.

There were more signs than people to hold them

Because he accepted the Medicaid dough and doesn't say mean things about gays, Kasich isn't even a possibility? They really are this stupid.

That was my thought. This is so insane that the only GOP hopeful without a reputation as a nut or an incompetent (accurate or no) is the one they dismiss outright. "Not that guy, a couple of people think he's Ok. We still want crazy, just not Trump crazy." I also love that for much of the GOP, Trump is apparently too liberal (!), and for most liberals, he's too right-wing. Cross that with his low numbers among women and minorities and ... it'll be wild when he's still elected.

Been looking for a graphic of Trump with a suicide vest, but so far no dice! How can that be? Someone get on this!

and for most liberals, he's too right-wing

for me it's more like he wants to do random nonsensical crap and will probably turn the White House into a reality show.

(well obv he really doesn't want to do anything, other than get elected, but you know what I mean)

pretty sure he wants to deport 11 million people and also build the wall from game of thrones

that's him pandering at his best, one year in he'll be like "wall, what wall? oh that? I've moved on sry guys"

is kinda chilling that the frontrunner for the GOP very popular amongst ppl who think slavery shouldn't have ended, KKK, ppl who think Islam should be illegal

As a bro with no ho Lindsay Graham will have to be Lord Commander of the Night's Watch

From the Times piece: "At a meeting of Republican governors the next morning, Paul R. LePage of Maine called for action. Seated at a long boardroom table at the Willard Hotel, he erupted in frustration over the state of the 2016 race, saying Mr. Trump’s nomination would deeply wound the Republican Party. Mr. LePage urged the governors to draft an open letter “to the people,” disavowing Mr. Trump and his divisive brand of politics."

And he endorses Trump a week later.

xpost Christie could be Hodor with one expertly placed blow to the head

all the pundits saying trump wld fade prob helped convince the gop that they didnt have to attack him

My sense is that most politicians are so used to message discipline and constantly guarding what they say, always confining themselves to a specific carefully honed set of words, that the idea that anyone could get away with all the crazy shit Trump says every day and still be trouncing them was dismissed from their minds as an impossibility because it caused too much cognitive dissonance to be possible. It makes a mockery of their whole worldview.

And he endorses Trump a week later.

what's what confused me the first time I read the article - I was convinced I just read LePage's name wrong in the other article.

Close as I could find xp

http://i.imgur.com/FOVMOMO.jpg

xpost
yeah. it also doesn't bode well for the future, in terms of what kinds of candidates might be inspired by trump

I think "movement" conservatives deluded themselves in their own little NRO echo chamber & mistakenly thought anyone actually gave a fuck about the legacy of Reagan & the principles of small government & values and shit, that it all just wasn't the ugly violent bitterness that came with the death throes of majority white America and now Trump lays bare what everyone knew, people just want someone to say fuck you to all the minorities and PC "gone out of control" bullshit & Trump says it loudest

that cartoonist prob came up with the 'suicide vest' idea back when Santorum led the race in 2012 for two minutes. he had this weird sweater vest thing going as his trademark.

https://twitter.com/lepenjm/status/703625793814003712

jean-marie le pen: 'if i were american, i'd vote for donald trump! may god protect him!'

man if Trump was playing racist-endorsement Bingo.....

been thinking abt it and feel like this years failure of prognostication is overblown cause it was all based on the idea that the republicans leadership wld actually attempt to defeat trump but then they didnt which makes no sense, they do want to stop him they just never got around to it, dont feel like its reasonable to expect anyone to have seen that one coming

I like this^ It also somewhat sneakily suggests that evidence-based modeling is suspect so y'know global warming isn't real and neither is evolution so...

More importantly it's a huge green light to artsy-fartsies like me to "theorize" freely even when surrounded by social scientists.

[sorry, I know these are stupid conclusions to draw from your post, but such are the small pleasures ilx provides me]

by the way is anyone keeping track of how tall Trump's Wall is by now?

I think it's genius. Clearly the one-shot way to make America great again, keep out Mexico and thwart China is to build a Great Wall of America. The only thing that could make it more genius is if he promised to make it mixed-use retail. He could call it the Great Mall of America, and it would hit so many bases he'd be president for life. Keep out the Mexicans, keep up with the Chinese, make America great and bolster the economy with miles of ample shopping outlets. Plus, think of the employment opportunities! And the tourism!

Also, he'd have to change the Constitution so that he could be president for life.

Plus, we would have the best murals in the world. The best!!!

We are going to make Mexico paint the murals. If there's one thing you can say about Mexicans, it's that they make some top, top murals.

Trump has "the worst spray tan in America" and "should sue whoever did that to his face."
-- Rubio

never have i been a blue calm sea (collardio gelatinous)
Posted: February 27, 2016 at 11:13:32 AM
by the way is anyone keeping track of how tall Trump's Wall is by now?

way taller than the ceiling at the debate

somehow none of the rival GOP campaigns looked into any of this? malpractice

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/donald-trump-said-a-lot-of-gross-things-about-women-on-howar

because they've said teh same things themselves

I guess a woman voting for Trump is kinda like saying "yeah, fuck you, me!!!!"

somehow none of the rival GOP campaigns looked into any of this? malpractice

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/donald-trump-said-a-lot-of-gross-things-about-women-on-howar

― arts and crafts THIS GUY (daria-g), Saturday, February 27, 2016 1:53 PM (8 minutes ago)

why would this matter